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* Strong supporter of mr. Warren Buffet's, mr. Benjamin Graham's and mr. Peter Lynch's approaches. * Used to be a generator of sustainable alpha before 2014, then went heavily against USD - that didn't work out well. ) Bio: Investor from CIS 2010-present: Asset Management at the most... More
  • Summarizing 2013 0 comments
    Feb 10, 2014 12:49 PM

    Dear readers,

    Let me summarize the 2013 year.

    For the past whole year I barely made 4 articles. This is not because I'm lazy, it's because I don't really have enough time. Nevertheless, the project were, as follows:


    At 29th of August I wrote that fast-growers were a way overpriced and blue chips (with an example of ADM) were on their high levels lacking sound improvement in their businesses. P/E of blue chip went strongly higher 15 and fast-growers broke bad to 60-90 levels.

    fact: MELI, LULU, SBUX were having problems at the year-end, and prices keep falling right now. And sound correction is required to put the world to the rights in blue chips.


    At 30th of April "First Solar's Splendor" material we suggested long-term buying this company due to its strong character. Annual report in 2014 will show us further path. Stocks were trading around 45 per share At year-end it was 54.64 and in November $64 level had been reached. Someone might have made and 42% profit if he sold it in Nov. But true value lies ahead in 2014-2015.

    fact: price at 30th of April = 46.56 USD. price at 31th of December = 54.64 USD. +17.35%. S&P500 over the same period rose 15.7%. And in November $64 level had been reached. Some might have made and 42% profit if he sold it in Nov.


    "Invest in Brazil" has proved itself to be very painful idea since we recommended it at 27 Feb. 2013. The main reasons were: 1) Unemployment went down from 7.5 to 4.9 over 3 years; 2) Low-base effect (GDP growth in 2012 was 0.9%); 3) Word Cup is taking place there in 2014 & Olympic Games in 2016 that brings on massive infrastructure spending.

    fact: all to no avail. BRL lost 20% since Feb., interest rates went higher. Idea appeared to be total fiasco.


    Long Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was a good idea, given that the recommendation appeared at 31Jan and INTC made +23% at the year-end just exactly as SPX did since 31Jan. At least it was as good as the Index was, understanding that 2013 was a very bullish year for the last. Not many funds succeeded to outperform SPX Index.

    fact: INTC . 31Jan = $20.54_31Dec=$25.95 +23% SPX. 31Jan=1498_31Dec=1848 +23%

    I hope there will be more good investment ideas is 2014.


    P.S. Thanks to these and many other ideas I finished 2013 with +30% for my stocks portfolios. That was first time I didn't beat index over last 3 years.

    Disclosure: I am long ACLLF, INTC, FSLR, GTAT, MTRAF.

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