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Jon P
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Artist (painter) Formerly an aeronautical engineer....B Ae from University of Minnesota, worked for General Dynamics, Lockheed Aircraft, North American Rockwell
  • The Case For Tesla By The Real Jon Peterson 0 comments
    Aug 21, 2013 12:08 PM | about stocks: TSLA

    I have read all the articles, both positive and negative, including the negative analyses by my doppelgänger John Peterson. It is obvious to anyone that based on any technical stock analysis, TSLA is over-priced I'll stipulate that right now. Having conceded that, what makes the stock price to continue rising? Is a large drop in price inevitable? I don't believe so, and here's why:

    When I signed up on the waiting list for a Tesla Model S in 2011, I didn't know much about the company or Elon Musk. I was interested in what appeared to be the first practical electric car....I had never been interested in hybrids, which seem to me to be an interim solution to the problem of our reliance on fossil fuels. When I received notice that my car was ready in December, I hadn't even seen a Model S; I wasn't sure whether or not to accept the car.

    Before I made that decision, I went to the Santa Monica store to see the car and take a test drive. I liked the looks of the car, and was very impressed with the test drive, so I went ahead and accepted delivery in early January.

    After a couple of weeks of ownership, It became clear to me that the S is the car of the future, and that it will make all other non-electric cars obsolete. I bought TSLA in February and have enjoyed the ride up.

    The other John Peterson cites his credentials in financial and investing experience, and I respect those credentials.

    I present my engineering background to present the following case for being long on TSLA.

    The sheer simplicity of the Model S will lead to large operating margins in the future. If you look at the chassis picture included here, it consists of a frame, suspension, battery, and motor. There are thousands of moving parts associated with ICE cars that aren't needed on the S. All of the belts, bearings, gears, fluids, hoses, exhaust pipes, which need lubrication, adjustment, etc, etc..........GONE! I look at the simple, no-maintenance Tesla frame and as an engineer I know that costs for manufacturing the Model S will plummet once economies of scale are reached.

    (click to enlarge)

    I am convinced that Tesla represents a huge disruption in the automobile market. I believe that 20 years from now, ICE cars will no longer be on the road. Right now, Tesla owns this disruptive technology. The more other car companies ignore EVs as the inevitable car of the future, the stronger will Tesla's position in the industry be.

    I made my investment based upon these conclusions, and I continue to be long on TSLA.

    Disclosure: I am long TSLA.

    Stocks: TSLA
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