Seeking Alpha

Paul Mosgovoy's  Instablog

Paul Mosgovoy
Send Message
Market updates are no longer posted to this site. All updates and communication are posted on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=18898995&trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile Please request a link to be added to my network. Thank you, Paul Mosgovoy
My book:
Market Masters: Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb
  • Randgold Traps The Bears 0 comments
    Jan 10, 2014 12:48 PM | about stocks: GOLD

    One of the most reliable, if not the most reliable of technical signals is the presence of a false breakout (either up or down).

    Yesterday, 1/9/14, Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ:GOLD) pushed below support (and closed below) that had been established at the 60.00 level during June-through-July of last year. Volume was heavy which suggests that there was a significant changing of hands: Weak to strong.

    Today saw a gap-higher open that has not been retraced. As of this writing, GOLD is now pushing back into the previous trading range.

    (click to enlarge)GOLD Daily Chart

    Charts by StockCharts.com

    If this action holds and GOLD does not erode (as did MCP), then the signal is confirmed.

    GOLD has been in a correction since October of 2012, after a false breakout to the upside. It has declined approximately 50% from that level to the 60.00 area.

    However, if we look at GOLD from a longer term perspective viz: The 2008 low, then we see that GOLD has declined or corrected just over 38% of that entire move.

    We entered long GOLD at 60.94, during the early part of this session. The expectation is for the position to be in the green at the close. If not, then there is always the possibility of a signal failure or a prolonged corrective/test process.

    There is risk with participating in a GOLD move. In March of 2012, the Mali region experienced a military coup and GOLD lost a significant percentage of value overnight. Peak-to-trough was a hit that lasted about two months and resulted in a loss of nearly 40%.

    The equity eventually recovered. However, one should be aware of the risks before taking any position.

    Disclaimer:

    This report is for discussion purposes and contains our opinions only. This posting is to publicly document our thinking and market analysis actions within the Three Ten Trading entity. The data was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we make no guarantee as to the accuracy of that data.

    Investing or trading in equities, futures or options may result in a significant loss of capital, total loss of capital or a loss greater than available capital.

    We are not advocating any stock or in any way offering portfolio management advice or stock selection service.

    Respectfully,

    Paul Mosgovoy, President: Three Ten Trading, LLC

    Thank you for reading.

    Disclosure: I am long GOLD, .

    Themes: Long ideas, Gold Stocks: GOLD
Back To Paul Mosgovoy's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.