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Truth is timeless: “Markets never change” – Jesse Livermore, 1923 The early masters, Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb isolated themselves from the crowd and crowd thinking. None of them ever graduated high-school and yet they each became legends in the market. Their techniques have been time-tested.... More
  • Market Summary: CCJ, GDX, GLD, NEM 2 comments
    Apr 23, 2014 4:25 PM | about stocks: CCJ, GDX, GLD, NEM

    The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) is up while the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) edges lower.

    It's a fractured market. There may be trading opportunities, however, those available may only be short-lived.

    There are always exceptions and Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) may be one (shown further down).

    The GDX daily chart shows that price action is nearing the underside of the trend-line that was penetrated (with volume) on 4/15.

    (click to enlarge)GDX Daily

    Chart by TeleChart

    This action may be a test of the trend-line break. How it behaves at that level may give clues whether or not it will break through or be turned lower. At this point, it looks stronger than the last session.

    Looking at Newmont Mining (NEM) we see a well defined resistance point at the 26 - level.

    NEM has already tested this level in mid-March and is now coming back for a second look.

    (click to enlarge)NEM Daily

    Chart by TeleChart

    Cameco Corp. (NYSE:CCJ) may be in the beginning stages of a reversal as seen on the weekly chart.

    (click to enlarge)CCJ Weekly

    Chart by TeleChart

    Price action has eroded last month's reversal tail and CCJ is showing beginning signs of demand.

    At same time, the price of U308 continues to decline and is now at multi-year lows.

    However, after declining 77% over a three-year period, most of the speculative excess in U308 may have been washed out.

    As stated in the mid-session update, our stop is tight at 22.77 which is this week's low. A penetration of that low would mean that the nascent up-trend is failing and we need to be on the sidelines.

    This could very well be an entry that is stopped out quickly. With that understanding, it is still a low risk point in a rising equity and therefore worth pursuing.

    Disclosure: I am long CCJ.

    Stocks: CCJ, GDX, GLD, NEM
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Comments (2)
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  • User 195396
    , contributor
    Comments (447) | Send Message
    Good call on GDX firming up-I was long DUST/GDST but did not get as quickly as you-I bailed quickly this am-I need to be a little more nimble on those hedges as GDST particularly will really burn in a hurry-maybe hedge the hedge-heh.
    23 Apr 2014, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Paul Mosgovoy
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thanks for letting me know that the research is helping.


    I always attempt to list stop levels as the trade progresses. That way, if I happen to be out of the office and there is a reversal, those who may be positioned likewise will at least know where I have placed stops.


    Seems like cross-currents abound in the gold sector at this point. Actual gold price is still trending down. Any rallies in the miners may be temporary.


    If gold price gets below $1,200 (a level that seems to be important to those in the industry) and stays there for a protracted time, there may be another series of asset write-downs.


    I do not know that for sure and have not done the research yet but I am sensing that the miners are holding their breath and watching the gold price with hope......


    At this point, the only open position is being long CCJ. There is a tight stop at 22.77 that may be hit tomorrow.


    If not, and CCJ moves higher, it may have been the final pivot before going to much higher levels. We will see.


    Thanks again,


    23 Apr 2014, 11:40 PM Reply Like
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