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Platinum Shortage To Persist

|Includes:PALL, Sylvania Platinum Limited (SAPLF)


Platinum and palladium will be the best performing precious metals next year as record global car sales will keep them in short supply for a third year, according to the most-accurate forecasters.

The metals, used in catalytic converters, will be in a shortage for the longest stretch since 2005 for platinum and 2000 for palladium, Barclays Plc and Johnson Matthey Plc data show. Platinum will gain 13 percent to average $1,635 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the mean of eight estimates by the most-accurate analysts tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years. Palladium will gain 10 percent to average $823 an ounce, the most for a quarter since 2001.


"Platinum and palladium markets show the tightest supply and demand among precious metals and probably will throughout next year as well," said Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt and the most-accurate palladium forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years. "Industrial demand should stay high."

This should be exacerbated by the fact that a god many of the shafts in South Africa are operating a loss. As these money losing shafts are shutdown in the face of a supply shortage the price should rise. That is the thesis behind my speculation in Sylvania Platinum.

Disclosure: I am long OTC:SAPLF.