Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

IS 2014 The Recovery Year For Uranium?

|Includes:CCJ, Global X Uranium ETF (URA), URPTF, UUUU

Depends on Japanese restart timing:

One of the main catalysts for price movement in 2013 was the start up of reactors in Japan. Unfortunately, Japan didn't restart its reactors on the timeline many were hoping for. Because of the delay in setting up a new independent nuclear regulatory body in Japan, several uranium delivery contracts were deferred and continue to be deferred. That has led to more supply getting introduced into other markets.

Raymond James analyst David Sadowski told Uranium Investing News that "simply put, the market was flushed with excess material, and most utilities are fairly well covered. That has led to limited non-discretionary buying and softer prices," which he believes could persist until Japan restarts its reactors.


Japan currently has 14 reactors waiting to be restarted. Once that catalyst has been reached, the consensus is that it is only a matter of time before the uranium market takes off. The question is when will Japan fire up its first reactor?

According to Sadowski, six to eight of the 14 reactors should be back online by the end of 2014, with the first ones starting up mid-year.

Although it is taking longer than expected to restart the Japanese reactors it is my view that the restarts are a "when" event and not an "if" event. I have pointed out several times that having all these reactors offline threw Japans current account surplus into deficit. They are having to import massive amounts of LNG at over $15/mcf. Abeonomics has many problems but the trade deficit issue is easily fixed by turning on the reactors. I remain long Uranium Particpation Fund, CCJ, URA, and Energy Fuels.

Disclosure: I am long CCJ, URA, UUUU, OTCPK:URPTF.