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John Polomny is an individual investor and speculator seeking unique, overlooked, and well researched opportunities and speculations from all over the world.
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  • Another Myanmar Company To Watch 40 comments
    Feb 11, 2012 2:57 PM
    Interra Resources is another company that trades on the Singapore Stock Exchange that is generating a significant amount of revenue from operations in Mynamar. This company is engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas. It has approximately 75% of its operations in Myanmar. I am not advocating that people buy this company, it is currently overvalued, but I am providing this name along with Yoma Strategic Holdings as examples of companies to watch as Myanmar continues to open up.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: Myanmar
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  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    You might also add Italian-Thai Development for the development of the Dawei project. Company has a dual listing in Germany.

     

    Meanwhile Chevron and Total operate the country's largest gas field (exempt from sanctions). Also Posco and Daewoo International have Myanmar exposure. Posco Korea owning 70% of Myanmar Posco Steel. .
    8 Mar 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for this information. I am trying to build a list of companies that are doing business in Mynamar so that when the eventual lifting of sanctions takes place I will be in a position to move.
    11 Mar 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Greetings Schumpeter 1 and John, could you elaborate a little Schumpeter?

     

    On my last trip to Mongolia I was talking with folks who are beginning to sniff around Myanmar and there is belief that Dawei could pull a meaningful percentage (maybe 20%?) of business from Singapore as a port of choice which would be massive growth for Myanmar... the question is how to invest for that.

     

    Negative side is some folks thinks the Chinese already have too big a position in Myanmar for it to be investable.

     

    Further conversation with others says that the Chinese make certain cities in Myanmar places to avoid (something about not messing with the triads), but that other places are more wide open.

     

    Working to get more data...
    17 Mar 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    John, I also thank you !
    Actually I am doing much the same like you do, i.e. building a list of Myanmar exposure.
    It seems that Yoma's share price is benefitting most from any news on Myanmar.
    17 Mar 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exactly it is being used as a proxy for Myanmar and seems to react to any positive news out of Myanmar. Unfortunately it is overvalued at its current price.
    17 Mar 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    You might also add to a lesser extent:
    - Oil & National Gas Corp. (India)
    - GAIL India (India & Germany listed)
    - Korea Gas

     

    and even, Hyundai Heavy Industries:
    http://bit.ly/zKlkHn
    17 Mar 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jon,

     

    I would like to say I very much appreciate your and John's writing on frontier markets (especially Mongolia) . I very much admire you guys.

     

    Where do you want me to specifically elaborate on ?
    I am not really that an expert. Let alone do I have contacts out there in the "real-world". But I have found the news on Italian-Thai Development on Bloomberg:
    http://bloom.bg/FPOeN8
    17 Mar 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Actually, anything, as much as an article link like that one, or any little snippet, is fantastic. I'm often a little too busy in my little silo and missing data like that.

     

    This quote from the article you cited echoes exactly what one of my contacts in Mongolia said (and I can't tell you how important it is to validate and re-validate everything anyone says as the ability of rumors, gossip, and rapidly growing hyperbole to circulate in frontier markets is something that requires constant minding) :
    "Italian-Thai Development Co. (ITD), the largest construction company in Thailand, completed an access road last year from the Thai border to Dawei, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) west of Bangkok. The company plans to complete financing this year for the harbor, which with the industrial zone will cover an area 16 times bigger than Thailand’s largest manufacturing park."

     

    I have found through going in depth into Mongolia that all the little pieces of data, some that seem all too tiny, all lead down a road that helps triangulate clarity. Whatever you come across and share will be appreciated!

     

    Thanks as well for the note on Yoma. Curious what Mr. Polomny thinks about them. The company is an open-window in my browser to do more research into as the week progresses - first blush is that its had quite the price run recently but is also well position with the right executive team (but that's a 10-minute cursory glance before I head out the door).

     

    Very nice to make your acquaintance and look forward to future exchanges,
    Jon
    17 Mar 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Posco Korea is owning 70% of Myanmar Posco Steel, but also 68% of Daewoo International.
    Here is a(n old) link related to Myanmar Posco Steel:
    http://bit.ly/wHXXh7

     

    And here are some links related to Daewoo International in Myanmar:

     

    http://bit.ly/FOQkS3

     

    http://bit.ly/xePWnj

     

    http://www.shwe.org

     

    http://bit.ly/FOQmsV

     

    http://bit.ly/zzw0oB

     

    http://bit.ly/xO7fs4
    17 Mar 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Most current (foreign) economic activities center around two gas projects: the older Yadana Gas field and the Shwe Gas Project.
    Both projects are severely criticized by NGOs on ethical, moral grounds.

     

    Yadana Gas Field:
    Located in the Andaman Sea, approximately 60 kilometers offshore the nearest landfall in Myanmar. Contains more than 5,3 trillion cubic feet (150 billion cubic meters) of natural gas, with an expected field life of 30 years. Output from the field averaged over 21.5 million cubic meters per day in 2007.

     

    Production sharing contract by four investors:
    ƒ - Total, operator, 31.2%
    - a subsidary of Unocal (today, Chevron Corp. ) 28.3%
    ƒ - Petroleum Authority of Thailand Exploration & Production (PTT-EP), 25.5%
    ƒ - state-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), 15%.

     

    Shwe project:
    Exploitation of underwater natural gas deposits off the coast of western Burma’s Arakan State and dual oil and gas pipelines running through Arakan State, Shan State, and Central Burma. Using the estimated sales price of US$ 4.41 per million BTU, the sale of 9.1 tfc would be worth US$ 40.1 billion. The plan will allow to supply natural gas to China's top oil and gas firm, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).
    Production is scheduled to begin in 2013.

     

    - Daewoo International 51%
    - GAIL 8.5%
    - Korean Gas 8.5%
    - Oil & National Gas Corp. 17 %
    - Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) 15%
    17 Mar 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Another field in the Andaman Sea, the Yetagun, is run by Malaysia's Petronas, Thai Nippon Steel, PTT-EP and MOGE. Petronas took over the stake of a British energy company that pulled out of the project under pressure in 2002 and is now its largest shareholder. A natural gas pipeline from the field joins with the Yadana pipeline at the Thai border.
    17 Mar 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Pinot_G
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Hi all, also looking for an investment opportunity in Myanmar, found your forum. According to my research there are two other stocks with large exposure to Myanmar (besides Yoma): Interra Res and TiongWoon. What do you think, appreciate short reply.
    29 Mar 2012, 04:28 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    If you're an American citizen, based on recent experience, I would tell you that you should - and must - wait to invest in Myanmar. American citizens are not allowed to invest in Myanmar at this time, even via companies based, and/or traded, and/or with business, elsewhere.
    29 Mar 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jon is correct. What we need to do is build a list of investment vehicles that can be used once the sanctions are lifted. My current view is the sanctions will begin to be loosened later this year.
    29 Mar 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Can't you guys invest within Italian-Thai Development ? There was some small news during last 14 days and it's getting lower and lower, because the issue of new shares, which causes dilution.

     

    Meanwhile ASEAN-countries are pressuring to lift the sanctions on Myanmar.
    3 Apr 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Myanmar equity fund in preparation: http://bloom.bg/IqRMp4
    9 Apr 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Doug Clayton (who is in the Bloomberg interview) has done several interviews with the Capitalist Exploits guys. http://bit.ly/Hvzu84
    and more relevantly
    http://bit.ly/Iv3rWE
    9 Apr 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I already discovered it is a very small world.
    Marc Faber => Leopard Capital (Cambodia) => John Polomny

     

    Marc Faber => Mongolia => Marc Wallace & John Polomny & Jon Springer => Mongolia Growth Group => Kupperman => Africa (= one of my interests) + Capitalist Exploits => Douglas Clayton + Mongolia => Jon Springer.

     

    And even, Myanmar => John Polomny => Mongolia => Jon Springer

     

    And Vietnam => Jon Springer.

     

    I meet you (and John) everywhere
    9 Apr 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is hilarious as I am going to write an article about Vietnam and using the VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund as a possible vehicle for investing in Vietnam.

     

    http://bit.ly/HvOFxr

     

    It appears very undervalued compared to NAV and the fund is buying back shares to shrink the discount to NAV.
    9 Apr 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    A new Myanmar play: Myanmar Investments International Ltd.
    Listed as of June 27, 2013 at London's AIM.

     

    http://bit.ly/1apVMbF

     

    http://bit.ly/1apVO3p

     

    http://bit.ly/1apVO3r
    29 Jun 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for this Schumpeter I am going to check it out. I also see Yoma has pulled back almost 30% but it is still a little rich at this level.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    I agree (as I sold months ago at 74c).
    I am also keeping an eye on WE Holdings (SGX-listed)

     

    With Myanmar Investments Int'l things are going as a I already expected: it just goes up, because people discover (a new) a new (Myanmar) play (+37,5%). My hands felt itchy, since I discovered it just before IPO and expected this behaviour.

     

    In MARKETING terms it could deliver the same results as Yoma:
    a diversified, non-commodity pure play on Myanmar. ( However, without a guy like Serge Pun) . Might benefit later on from this Marketing, as Yoma is now sold (even by the likes of Marc Faber in Barron's) as the only "pure Myanmar play".
    5 Sep 2013, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • roojoo
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    Schumpeter, I believe the price is also lifted by the extremely low number of shares in hands of 'ordinary shareholders'. There are simply no new sell orders appearing, so for every purchase of about 1000 shares the quoted price is lifted.

     

    Although I'd like to find a good vehicle to invest in Myanmar, I'm not ready to pay 150 cents on the dollar to buy a pocket of cash and the intention to invest it. Especially not when there are 5.8 million warrants outstanding. Maybe wait for a second round of stock issuance?
    10 Sep 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Neither am I. Have the same feeling.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • charlie462
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Infrastructure = sewerage and water>rock, stone, gravel>roads>tel... Cypack and UPP score on the first two. After that comes cement and steel for buildings.

     

    Check out Thorsten Veblen and his theory of conspicuous consumption which underpins all marketing. That needs money and credit so start with banks etc.DBS perhaps but there will be many others which will mean competition. An emerging middle class needs houses and cars so Yoma is into that. Fast food and convenience stores fit with an increasingly fast middle class lifestyle so check out Lawson Inc Super Group and Viz Branz. Marketing also means attractive packaging so JK Paper are worth following as is First Paper.

     

    All this needs electricity and energy. It's worth watching solar movers into the Burma market and of course there is abundant oil and gas....Interra to get it out of the ground and Australliso or however it is spelt to distribute.

     

    Newspapers have taken off big time which links with freedom of information. Keep an eye out for cheap televisions not to mention TV channels....and whoever gets mobile phones, sim cards, internet etc are going to be big winners. Watch out for Thai companies given the significant parallel borders.

     

    I dont have any hints on agriculture but Indian companies with a vast population to feed may well be in there. Indian tractors etc....I forget the name of the company.

     

    Italian Thai is in trouble with the withdrawal of Zaw Zaw and it has a history of making losses. However if it gets its act together that port has the potential to take 20% of traffic from Singapore and from others.

     

    Hotels and tourism are areas where there is great potential but depend upon the government genuinely opening up the country. Elections in 2015 I believe. It is not just about democracy but about ethnic harmony which is a bigger practical issue.

     

    Natural resources is another significant area for development....and conflict with artesenal miners. The time is not far off when we will know who gets their foot in the door on this one.
    7 Jul 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Agriculture ?
    Burmese agriculture play = Yoma = rice
    Burma has been 3rd largest exporter before it closed borders. It also produced 75% of the world's teak.
    Indian tractors = Mahindra.

     

    For mining I would I closely observe the walks of Robert Friedland.

     

    I could recommend reading below mentioned article. It has some background on telecom, compare these Birmese rates with Cambodia.
    http://bit.ly/OM4Dc3
    8 Jul 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Pinot_G
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Myanmar to set up 7 more local industrial zones

     

    http://bit.ly/OeGjRg
    7 Oct 2012, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    John

     

    You already checked this Credit Suisse report on Thai firms benefiting from exports to Myanmar ?
    http://bit.ly/VvEzXa
    5 Nov 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Japanese airline group All Nippon Airways Co Ltd. or the ANA Group ( ALNPY.PK ALNPF.PK )acquires a 49 percent stake in the Myanmar-based airline Asian Wings Airways or AWA for $25 million or 2.5 billion yen.

     

    http://bit.ly/1dFxPib
    4 Sep 2013, 04:07 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Inside the Asian Wings, ANA Deal:
    http://bit.ly/17yPh3v
    4 Sep 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    First mover in Myanmar - Tan Chong Motor (TCM):
    http://bit.ly/16VGz2b
    11 Oct 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    A joint British- Burmese effort on developing a sustainable financial sector should help encourage more foreign investment in Myanmar.
    http://bit.ly/1gy8l6b
    http://bit.ly/1gy8jvk
    It looks like we'll see more British interest there.
    http://bit.ly/1gy8l6c
    http://bit.ly/1gy8jLA
    11 Oct 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    How about writing a SA article analyzing Bangkok Dust Medical Services (BDULF) ?
    It seems they are having 3 Cambodian hospitals, 1 Myanmar clinic and an exposure to Laos
    (while also benefiting from US, Australian, UAE and Russian medical tourism)

     

    BGH plans to add six more hospitals
    http://bit.ly/1cs4Peq

     

    BGH plans to open Myanmar hospital
    http://bit.ly/1cs4Pes

     

    http://bit.ly/1cs4N6v

     

    Hospital holdings as seen in annual report:
    http://bit.ly/18FnJ9x
    31 Oct 2013, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I will check this out this weekend
    1 Nov 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    After a long strange year, I will have an interesting interview with a Myanmar law firm posting next week.

     

    - I am now a contributor to Forbes Asia's website.
    - Home page: http://onforb.es/18GUwwn
    - Recent post (on Thailand): http://onforb.es/1h59cdY
    - Recent print edition Forbes Asia article (on Sri Lanka): http://onforb.es/18GUzbu

     

    - My role contributing to Forbes Asia is to cover emerging markets for all of Asia.

     

    - I would of course also be pleased if you registered as followers of me on the Forbes site and would read my work there when time permits.

     

    - It has been a really challenging year. In part, honestly, it was a year where I really didn't realize everything that transpired until Forbes asked me to be a contributor to their website. It was a strange tough go of things. Just for the serendipity of it, it is worth noting I was initially offered to be a contributor for Forbes on my birthday.
    13 Dec 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Glad your back buddy! Congrats on the new position. Are you still going to post on SA?
    13 Dec 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Hi John,

     

    Thank you for the welcome. I am glad to be back too. Wasn't real sure what was coming next for quite a while this year.

     

    I will be on SA, but infrequently, as contributing to Forbes will demand quite a lot of my time.

     

    I'm really still just figuring out how this will all work and trying to ensure I keep things within reason so I don't cause myself another bout of health issues.

     

    My work going forward will be a mix of my interests (which I am free to write about with as much time as I can allocate to them) and requests from my editors at Forbes.

     

    Hope the year has been good to you and your family.

     

    Despite other issues, my wife and I had our second child this year (two boys now). We seem to be finishing the year strong after a bumpy year overall. Family and I will likely relocate to Asia in the summer.
    13 Dec 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Here's the interview with the American law firm in Myanmar
    http://onforb.es/1hfK1Wj
    16 Dec 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Jon

     

    Can I make a request as a Forbes reader ?
    Perhaps some following on the walkabouts of Gabriel Schulze ?
    Scion of the Newmont Mining family and frontier market investor:
    http://onforb.es/1jicsak

     

    http://onforb.es/1jicsas

     

    http://on.ft.com/1jicsav

     

    http://on.ft.com/1jicsay
    18 Dec 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Schumpeter_1
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    Didn't know this (future ?) Myanmar play:
    First Pacific Company Ltd (OTCPK:FPAFY)

     

    http://bit.ly/1rUUpYs

     

    http://bit.ly/1rUUpYv

     

    http://bit.ly/1rUUo6P
    1 Jul 2014, 05:16 PM Reply Like
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