John Polomny's  Instablog

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Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
You might also add Italian-Thai Development for the development of the Dawei project. Company has a dual listing in Germany.

Meanwhile Chevron and Total operate the country's largest gas field (exempt from sanctions). Also Posco and Daewoo International have Myanmar exposure. Posco Korea owning 70% of Myanmar Posco Steel. .
8 Mar 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like

John Polomny Comments (376)
 
Thanks for this information. I am trying to build a list of companies that are doing business in Mynamar so that when the eventual lifting of sanctions takes place I will be in a position to move.
11 Mar 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like

Jon Springer Comments (3765)
 
Greetings Schumpeter 1 and John, could you elaborate a little Schumpeter?

On my last trip to Mongolia I was talking with folks who are beginning to sniff around Myanmar and there is belief that Dawei could pull a meaningful percentage (maybe 20%?) of business from Singapore as a port of choice which would be massive growth for Myanmar... the question is how to invest for that.

Negative side is some folks thinks the Chinese already have too big a position in Myanmar for it to be investable.

Further conversation with others says that the Chinese make certain cities in Myanmar places to avoid (something about not messing with the triads), but that other places are more wide open.

Working to get more data...
17 Mar 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
John, I also thank you !
Actually I am doing much the same like you do, i.e. building a list of Myanmar exposure.
It seems that Yoma's share price is benefitting most from any news on Myanmar.
17 Mar 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like

John Polomny Comments (376)
 
Exactly it is being used as a proxy for Myanmar and seems to react to any positive news out of Myanmar. Unfortunately it is overvalued at its current price.
17 Mar 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
You might also add to a lesser extent:
- Oil & National Gas Corp. (India)
- GAIL India (India & Germany listed)
- Korea Gas


and even, Hyundai Heavy Industries:
http://bit.ly/zKlkHn
17 Mar 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Hi Jon,

I would like to say I very much appreciate your and John's writing on frontier markets (especially Mongolia) . I very much admire you guys.

Where do you want me to specifically elaborate on ?
I am not really that an expert. Let alone do I have contacts out there in the "real-world". But I have found the news on Italian-Thai Development on Bloomberg:
http://bloom.bg/FPOeN8
17 Mar 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like

Jon Springer Comments (3765)
 
Actually, anything, as much as an article link like that one, or any little snippet, is fantastic. I'm often a little too busy in my little silo and missing data like that.

This quote from the article you cited echoes exactly what one of my contacts in Mongolia said (and I can't tell you how important it is to validate and re-validate everything anyone says as the ability of rumors, gossip, and rapidly growing hyperbole to circulate in frontier markets is something that requires constant minding) :
"Italian-Thai Development Co. (ITD), the largest construction company in Thailand, completed an access road last year from the Thai border to Dawei, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) west of Bangkok. The company plans to complete financing this year for the harbor, which with the industrial zone will cover an area 16 times bigger than Thailand’s largest manufacturing park."

I have found through going in depth into Mongolia that all the little pieces of data, some that seem all too tiny, all lead down a road that helps triangulate clarity. Whatever you come across and share will be appreciated!

Thanks as well for the note on Yoma. Curious what Mr. Polomny thinks about them. The company is an open-window in my browser to do more research into as the week progresses - first blush is that its had quite the price run recently but is also well position with the right executive team (but that's a 10-minute cursory glance before I head out the door).

Very nice to make your acquaintance and look forward to future exchanges,
Jon
17 Mar 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Posco Korea is owning 70% of Myanmar Posco Steel, but also 68% of Daewoo International.
Here is a(n old) link related to Myanmar Posco Steel:
http://bit.ly/wHXXh7

And here are some links related to Daewoo International in Myanmar:

http://bit.ly/FOQkS3

http://bit.ly/xePWnj

http://www.shwe.org

http://bit.ly/FOQmsV

http://bit.ly/zzw0oB

http://bit.ly/xO7fs4
17 Mar 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Most current (foreign) economic activities center around two gas projects: the older Yadana Gas field and the Shwe Gas Project.
Both projects are severely criticized by NGOs on ethical, moral grounds.

Yadana Gas Field:
Located in the Andaman Sea, approximately 60 kilometers offshore the nearest landfall in Myanmar. Contains more than 5,3 trillion cubic feet (150 billion cubic meters) of natural gas, with an expected field life of 30 years. Output from the field averaged over 21.5 million cubic meters per day in 2007.

Production sharing contract by four investors:
ƒ - Total, operator, 31.2%
- a subsidary of Unocal (today, Chevron Corp. ) 28.3%
ƒ - Petroleum Authority of Thailand Exploration & Production (PTT-EP), 25.5%
ƒ - state-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), 15%.

Shwe project:
Exploitation of underwater natural gas deposits off the coast of western Burma’s Arakan State and dual oil and gas pipelines running through Arakan State, Shan State, and Central Burma. Using the estimated sales price of US$ 4.41 per million BTU, the sale of 9.1 tfc would be worth US$ 40.1 billion. The plan will allow to supply natural gas to China's top oil and gas firm, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).
Production is scheduled to begin in 2013.

- Daewoo International 51%
- GAIL 8.5%
- Korean Gas 8.5%
- Oil & National Gas Corp. 17 %
- Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) 15%
17 Mar 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Another field in the Andaman Sea, the Yetagun, is run by Malaysia's Petronas, Thai Nippon Steel, PTT-EP and MOGE. Petronas took over the stake of a British energy company that pulled out of the project under pressure in 2002 and is now its largest shareholder. A natural gas pipeline from the field joins with the Yadana pipeline at the Thai border.
17 Mar 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like

Pinot_G Comments (2)
 
Hi all, also looking for an investment opportunity in Myanmar, found your forum. According to my research there are two other stocks with large exposure to Myanmar (besides Yoma): Interra Res and TiongWoon. What do you think, appreciate short reply.
29 Mar 2012, 04:28 AM Reply Like

Jon Springer Comments (3765)
 
If you're an American citizen, based on recent experience, I would tell you that you should - and must - wait to invest in Myanmar. American citizens are not allowed to invest in Myanmar at this time, even via companies based, and/or traded, and/or with business, elsewhere.
29 Mar 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like

John Polomny Comments (376)
 
Jon is correct. What we need to do is build a list of investment vehicles that can be used once the sanctions are lifted. My current view is the sanctions will begin to be loosened later this year.
29 Mar 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Can't you guys invest within Italian-Thai Development ? There was some small news during last 14 days and it's getting lower and lower, because the issue of new shares, which causes dilution.

Meanwhile ASEAN-countries are pressuring to lift the sanctions on Myanmar.
3 Apr 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Myanmar equity fund in preparation: http://bloom.bg/IqRMp4
9 Apr 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like

Jon Springer Comments (3765)
 
Doug Clayton (who is in the Bloomberg interview) has done several interviews with the Capitalist Exploits guys. http://bit.ly/Hvzu84
and more relevantly
http://bit.ly/Iv3rWE
9 Apr 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Yes, I already discovered it is a very small world.
Marc Faber => Leopard Capital (Cambodia) => John Polomny

Marc Faber => Mongolia => Marc Wallace & John Polomny & Jon Springer => Mongolia Growth Group => Kupperman => Africa (= one of my interests) + Capitalist Exploits => Douglas Clayton + Mongolia => Jon Springer.

And even, Myanmar => John Polomny => Mongolia => Jon Springer

And Vietnam => Jon Springer.

I meet you (and John) everywhere
9 Apr 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like

John Polomny Comments (376)
 
This is hilarious as I am going to write an article about Vietnam and using the VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund as a possible vehicle for investing in Vietnam.

http://bit.ly/HvOFxr

It appears very undervalued compared to NAV and the fund is buying back shares to shrink the discount to NAV.
9 Apr 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like

charlie462 Comments (2)
 
Infrastructure = sewerage and water>rock, stone, gravel>roads>tel... Cypack and UPP score on the first two. After that comes cement and steel for buildings.

Check out Thorsten Veblen and his theory of conspicuous consumption which underpins all marketing. That needs money and credit so start with banks etc.DBS perhaps but there will be many others which will mean competition. An emerging middle class needs houses and cars so Yoma is into that. Fast food and convenience stores fit with an increasingly fast middle class lifestyle so check out Lawson Inc Super Group and Viz Branz. Marketing also means attractive packaging so JK Paper are worth following as is First Paper.

All this needs electricity and energy. It's worth watching solar movers into the Burma market and of course there is abundant oil and gas....Interra to get it out of the ground and Australliso or however it is spelt to distribute.

Newspapers have taken off big time which links with freedom of information. Keep an eye out for cheap televisions not to mention TV channels....and whoever gets mobile phones, sim cards, internet etc are going to be big winners. Watch out for Thai companies given the significant parallel borders.

I dont have any hints on agriculture but Indian companies with a vast population to feed may well be in there. Indian tractors etc....I forget the name of the company.

Italian Thai is in trouble with the withdrawal of Zaw Zaw and it has a history of making losses. However if it gets its act together that port has the potential to take 20% of traffic from Singapore and from others.

Hotels and tourism are areas where there is great potential but depend upon the government genuinely opening up the country. Elections in 2015 I believe. It is not just about democracy but about ethnic harmony which is a bigger practical issue.

Natural resources is another significant area for development....and conflict with artesenal miners. The time is not far off when we will know who gets their foot in the door on this one.
7 Jul 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
Agriculture ?
Burmese agriculture play = Yoma = rice
Burma has been 3rd largest exporter before it closed borders. It also produced 75% of the world's teak.
Indian tractors = Mahindra.

For mining I would I closely observe the walks of Robert Friedland.

I could recommend reading below mentioned article. It has some background on telecom, compare these Birmese rates with Cambodia.
http://bit.ly/OM4Dc3
8 Jul 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like

Pinot_G Comments (2)
 
Myanmar to set up 7 more local industrial zones

http://bit.ly/OeGjRg
7 Oct 2012, 03:15 AM Reply Like

Schumpeter_1 Comments (145)
 
John

You already checked this Credit Suisse report on Thai firms benefiting from exports to Myanmar ?
http://bit.ly/VvEzXa
5 Nov 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like