Zhongjian Xia's  Instablog

Zhongjian Xia
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1996 - Present: Risk Management Professional at a credit card company. 1996 - PhD in Economics, Rutgers University.
  • Airline Sector 1 comment
    Sep 23, 2013 2:12 AM

    As bull market continues, airline companies could take off big time, similar to housing stocks. Consider following factors:

    1. Big consolidation and reduced cost/reward. It is so good now because it was so bad in the past.

    2. Newer more efficient fleet.

    3. Big drop in oil price - a. US oil production could double to 14MM barrels per day by 2015. b. Break through in battery powered cars - Tesla can only sustain if it becomes a mass choice. c. Collapse or big slow down of China economy.

    4. Slow but continued growing US economy. Next 3 - 5 years may be among the best in history, as so many tail winds(housing, much lower household debt level, cheap gas, oil to come, amazing innovation capabilities in US)

    Many times, stock will go up more or go down more, and keep flat longer, than people think. Investors either need to follow Buffet approach - select good ones and keep for long time, or making strategic bets based on certain assumptions. Soros, Jim Rogers, John Paulson are great examples of strategic thought leaders. Some opportunities are obvious and may be once in a life time, like appreciation of yen before last year's election(Soros and Goldman Sacs won big money betting on Yen). For amateurs this is extremely challenging but it is possible and it is aspirational.

    Back to airlines, the question is timing to buy. Currently I have 40 call contracts for Southwest and 12 contracts for Delta. Will build more call positions if there is a significant pull back.

    Disclosure: I am long LUV, DAL.

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  • Yuntao Zhu
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    make sense!
    23 Sep 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
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  • Sold my Jan 18 $RHT call, more than doubled. Still hold $MSFT Feb 22 calls, losing money but expect to recover. Hold airlines.
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    Dec 31, 2013
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