Seeking Alpha

Moral Investing's  Instablog

Moral Investing
Send Message
Private investor.
  • Deeper Research: What's Really Behind The IlDong Study 3 comments
    Sep 16, 2013 9:21 AM | about stocks: ARNA

    In advance of posting this elsewhere, I am sending this early edition to my followers. You are welcome to pass it along to your friends and fellow investors.

    "Deeper Research: What's Really Behind the IlDong Study"

    Back on 11 May, Forbes magazine reported: "Volunteers weren't able to distinguish the 20 mg lorcaserin dose from placebo. These results led the researchers to conclude that lorcaserin had very low abuse potential." The quotation refers to the abuse potential of Belviq versus efficacy.

    Why this is important is because the current IlDong study for Koreans is investigating two dosage levels: 10 mg and 20 mg. At first, this puzzled me until the pieces of a puzzle began to fall together.

    After digging around, I came to the conclusion that Arena is using the IlDong study as a future platform for a higher dose (20 mg) version of Belviq. By turning to IlDong, Arena is passing along the cost of the phase 1 dosage study to IlDong since IlDong has contracted to market Belviq in South Korea. As an addendum, Arena is accomplishing the same task in a combo study of Belviq and Phentermine, but this time at the cost to Eisai.

    What are we seeing?

    We're seeing what Arena alluded to at a recent conference. That Belviq's fuller potential is the next step. That Belviq is its own product pipeline which means the financial value of Belviq is significantly greater than its current 10 mg version.

    You could say that the 10 mg version got Arena's foot in the door with the FDA. Perhaps Arena is considering a 20 mg version to submit at a later date to the FDA and EMA.

    What I'm getting at is the IlDong 10 mg and 20 mg study like the upcoming Eisai Belviq-Phentermine study is a window into the strategic development of Belviq for its much wider multi-product market opportunity. I would suggest that investors pay very close attention to the dose levels in the upcoming Eisai study.

    Once analysts and hedge funds understand this, you can expect a bullish turn to the upside will shortly follow.

    Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

    Additional disclosure: Unpublished instablog.

    Stocks: ARNA
Back To Moral Investing's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (3)
Track new comments
  • PlainDealer
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for posting this analysis, MI,

     

    It IS an exciting time to be an Arena Long. And it will be fun in the coming years to talk about getting in on the ground floor of a company that not only revolutionized medical technology, but made crazy, record breaking profits for its investors (like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon did for theirs!).

     

    Thank you for taking the time and energy to provide your analysis and insights to the retail investment community. I don't really even bother to reader Spencer Osborne's articles anymore, but DO read the reader's comments to get correct updates on the progress of Arena and Belviq.

     

    Cheers!
    16 Sep 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • WIS JOE
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Great info have read two of your post cant wait to read third. I am long Arena
    20 Sep 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • BudTuba
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    WOW...what a find. This is very much what Arena would like to submit, but I think they will go for Bel-Phen first. Also, when they get good response from obese individuals, at some point they will want to test response in over-weight individuals BEFORE they develop co-morbid conditions.
    2 Oct 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.