As a true long investor in Arena, I prefer to base my decision on scientific understanding rather than Wall Street manipulation parlayed by a good majority of rag journalists with no scientific background. After all, it's doctors who prescribe medicines and in Belviq's case, it is the doctors who will or won't prescribe weight loss drugs that are the true gatekeepers. That is why I bring the following very recent 2013 excerpts to the attention of intellectually-guided investors.
I. For example, from the University of Connecticut School of Pharmacy which has no connection to Arena Pharmaceuticals nor Eisai recently published their findings regarding Belviq (Lorcaserin: a novel serotonin 2c agonist for the treatment of obesity) in a scientific journal. They wrote:
Three phase III clinical studies have been published evaluating the efficacy and safety of lorcaserin in various obese populations. A higher proportion of patients receiving lorcaserin (∼47%) lost more than 5% body weight from baseline in comparison with the placebo group (∼25%; p < 0.05 in all studies). Those receiving the recommended dose of lorcaserin 10 mg twice daily lost on average ∼6 kg of body weight from baseline versus ∼3 kg with placebo. Patients with diabetes mellitus also saw significant reductions in their HbA1c with lorcaserin (∼0.9%) versus placebo (∼0.4%; p < 0.001). Lorcaserin is generally well tolerated with the most commonly experienced adverse events being nausea, dizziness, headache, upper respiratory tract infections, and nasopharyngitis. Cardiovascular evaluations showed no appreciable increase in valvulopathy with lorcaserin use versus placebo.
The above summary alone may well-serve as a corrective measure to the complete falsifications showing up elsewhere. But their conclusion is even more informative:
For now, pharmacists should continue to recommend the use of lorcaserin as a complement to, not in lieu of, ongoing lifestyle and behavioral modification.
Indeed, because that is what Belviq is intended to do: "compliment" a healthy caloric diet including a regimen of exercise.
II. For example, from Wayne State University Eugene Applebaum College of Pharmacy and Health Science, Detroit, MI (Evaluation of lorcaserin for the treatment of obesity), it is discovered in another scientific journal:
Obesity is an epidemic associated with significant morbidity. Lorcaserin , a novel serotonin 2C receptor antagonist, was recently approved as an adjunct to lifestyle modification for long-term weight loss and maintenance. Clinical studies in patients without diabetes demonstrated 5.8% mean weight loss from baseline with lorcaserin compared to 2.5% with placebo and over twice as many patients achieved ≥ 5% weight loss. Patients with diabetes achieved mean weight loss of 4.5% with lorcaserin compared to 1.5% with placebo as well as modest improvements in glycemic outcomes.
Regarding Belviq they conclude:
Lorcaserin induces moderate but significant weight loss compared to placebo as an adjunct to lifestyle modification.
Once again, these researchers concluded that Belviq is an "adjunct to lifestyle modification" which is exactly what Arena-Eisai advertise.
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Recently, a prolific writer admitted that his articles favor day-traders since he covers week-to-week Belviq scripts. I concur. But it's also way too early to judge Belviq based on an amateur's hockey-stick that obviously missed that direct marketing has just started!
But to true longs who buy on dips, Arena right now is a savory strong buy. To wait for the dust to settle is not only stupid, it is missing the opportunity of a lifetime to buy a stock that will eventually move up and remain in double digits. That, dear readers, is what it means to be long. Arena may be too sizzling hot for the Jim Cramers' of the world, but not for me and not for the institutions and retailers who quickly wise up to the antics of Wall Street poppycock.
In my opinion, the body of science being reported in scientific journals is slowly eroding the Wall Street espionage that has degraded Arena's share price. I also add to that the many Belviq users who are seeing stellar results. What I perceive are shorts currently exiting their position or securing their own long position especially now that Eisai has initiated direct market advertising and has stated that they now foresee 50% insurance coverage in a year's time versus an earlier 30%.
The growing evidence and that includes my own personal interaction with both Arena and Eisai is that Belviq's safety profile three months into marketing has been excellent. That also includes a substantially higher number of early users whose results have far surpassed what was reported in phase 3 studies. And the reason isn't complex but simple: current Belviq users represent a higher percentage of motivated individuals who are committed to healthier nutritional guidelines and a tailored-made program of exercise.
Bottom line: the science is over-ruling Wall Street.
Disclosure: I am long ARNA.
Additional disclosure: Unpublished instablog.