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  • Deeper Research: Eisai's Licensed Territory Sales Forecast For Belviq 17 comments
    Sep 30, 2013 10:29 PM | about stocks: ARNA

    Once again the published writers will be playing catch-up to this unpublished instablog trying to explain how they reconcile imaginary hockey sticks and Credit Suisse lowered projections completely contradicted by what Eisai has committed to print as recently as August 2013.

    I am pleased to bring to the attention of Arena investors that Eisai has published its licensed territory (Americas) sales projection for Belviq (See page 10 of Eisai's Annual Report published August 2013). PLEASE REMEMBER, EISAI IS PROJECTING ITS ENTIRE LICENSED SALES TERRITORY BEYOND THE U.S. ALONE.

    To uncomplicate things, numbers are rounded-off throughout this report for simplicity. Of that chart we dissect the portion allotted to Belviq (View Eisai's chart and you'll understand why.)

    March 2014 combined licensed territory sales forecast for Halaven, Fycompa, and Belviq: 80B Yen or U.S. currency = ~$818M.

    Carefully examining the chart, Belviq's portion from Eisai's graph accounts for ~40% (hereafter).

    Keeping in mind that Eisai's full year sales forecast grows out of zero and didn't account for Belviq's delay into the market, I'll help readers by adjusting Eisai's figures to account for the start date and a 3/4 year for only June 2013 - March 2014; thereafter I'll use the full 12 month calendar cycle. Irrespective though, here are Eisai's published sales forecast for Belviq by:

    Start: Eisai's March 2012 now June 2013 = ~$0

    March 2013 now March 2014 = ~$230M

    March 2014 now 2015 = ~$327M

    March 2015 now 2016 = ~$409M

    March 2016 now 2017 = ~$573M

    March 2017 now 2018 = ~$818M

    March 2018 now 2019 = ~$1B

    March 2019 now 2020 = ~$1.18B

    March 2020 now 2021 = ~$1.28B

    March 2021 now 2022 = ~$1.5B

    Charted out it looks like this.

    (click to enlarge)

    The linear line is added to improve the extrapolation from Yen to dollars.

    Now investors can do what they like with this information, but it's all there if you follow the link provided above. Finally, of all five drugs that Eisai is moving forward, Belviq all alone accounts for the highest sales percentage. And remember, Eisai's projection is for all its licensed territory covering the Americas.

    Of special interest, on page 16 Eisai reports that they are targeting "20 Latin American countries" versus the usual mention of Brazil and Mexico.

    For the sake of analysts, Eisai projects Belviq will hit $1B in sales in six years for all its licensed territories.

    Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

    Additional disclosure: Unpublished instablog post. Accuracy not guaranteed. Readers are free to copy/paste and share this article for free with others.

    Stocks: ARNA
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Comments (17)
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  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Moral....

     

    Added this comment on my article as well

     

    With all due respect, Eisai has been projecting $1 billion by 2020 for a while now. That is not anything new and mind blowing really. The same data was presented and digested by investors this past March. Please see link and look at page 12:

     

    http://bit.ly/1fEsw4s

     

    I have spoken many times to the fact that Eisai is outlining blockbuster in 2020.

     

    If you print out the graph and apply straight edges to it, there is not an instance where Belviq makes up 40% of the pie. The number is about 35% at the maximum.

     

    Thank you for the information. The sales data is still the same as presented in March, but there is a lot in the Eisai report that might interest investors.
    30 Sep 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Moral Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mr. Osborne, with all due respect, I'm presenting to readers August 2013 in print information direct from Eisai. As it stands, Eisai is on record and the debate about their projection is over. I've supplied the information and used the ~ sign throughout my article to reflect I was extrapolating from Yen to Dollar using a fairly tough chart to read; try to be nice.

     

    You of all people should be writing me a thank you letter. Cheers!
    30 Sep 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Moral....

     

    If you refer to my link....which is an Eisai projection....you will see that the information you are presenting is nothing new, but in fact now almost 6.5 months old.

     

    Eisai presented the same chart (albeit the one in March was 3d) in mid March.

     

    You want me to thank you for presenting information that was known and written about 6 months ago? Okay...thank you.

     

    I give you credit for doing your research, but would offer the suggestion that you read the report from 6 months ago.
    1 Oct 2013, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Simply stated...

     

    You are the one playing catch up.....hopefully you see that now.

     

    You should thank me for covering this 6 months ago
    1 Oct 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Moral Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mr. Osborne, I thought about deleting the above comment from you, but instead preferred to allow my readers to see how you chide me.

     

    In simple truth, my instablogs stand on their own and I allow my readers to determine their value. Quite honestly, I prefer to walk the higher road then engage in verbal futility.
    1 Oct 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Moral...

     

    You are the one chiding....

     

    "Once again the published writers will be playing catch-up to this unpublished instablog trying to explain how they reconcile imaginary hockey sticks and Credit Suisse lowered projections completely contradicted by what Eisai has committed to print as recently as August 2013."

     

    You brought up something as if has never been seem. It was seen and discussed 6 months ago. Many investors view and listen to all presentations

     

    You say you stand on your own, yet use my articles as your launch pad whilst you then chide
    1 Oct 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Moral Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mr. Osborne, My use of literary flare harkens back to those early courses in writing where one was taught to begin an article with a 'hook' -- I thank you for highlighting my literary talent.

     

    As an observation, you seem to make a lot of assumptions about what I know or don't know (e.g. Why SA has chosen not to publish my articles, and now, presentation information). Quite honestly, I'm finding your care for me at once touching and a bit overwhelmingly. Bless your heart!
    1 Oct 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Moral....

     

    you make a lot of assumptions (and misrepresentations).

     

    You do know why SA did not publish your last article. You simply are not sharing it. Perhaps you want the readers to arrive at conspiracy theories regarding the subject. Personally, I thought it would be big of you to step up and put out the reason. I thought you had that characteristic in you. I was wrong. I have moved on with the knowledge that you could have put the issue to rest and did not. Next issue.

     

    Your hook is simply misguided for a few reasons.

     

    1. I did not have to play catch-up. I knew this information 6 months ago, and saw it again when Eisia repeated the information in August.

     

    2. The reconciliation for the hockey stick is not needed. It was done long ago. The reconciliation is that it was apossible path that would be needed to obtain the $150 million goal by the end of the year outlined by Eisai. It was coupled with a more linear model. When the linear model was clearly outside possibility, it was removed. The ONLY way that $150 million is reached in the prescribed time frame now is through exponential growth (hockey stick).

     

    3. My analysis is not "completely contradicted" by what Eisai has put forth as projections. Yours is however. You are projecting $230 million by March of 2014 (6 months from now). You might want to reassess that
    1 Oct 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • m_yossi
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Moral Investing,

     

    Thanks for that!

     

    Please note that 2015 earnings were revised UP by CS, from -$0.11 to -$0.06 ! ! !

     

    Please remember also Korea and Taiwan!
    1 Oct 2013, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • yale1066
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the positive info. I find it interesting that the criticism of your article is based that is "old" info. This info has not been discussed by other analysts from your point of view. I am at a loss to understand Spencer's criticism of you.
    1 Oct 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Moral Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yale, I'd imagine Mr. Osborne simply doesn't like that I discovered a recent document direct from Eisai that lays out their own projections. I mean, Who would you trust? CS?-No. A hockey stick?-No. Myself, I'll go with the company that licensed Belviq for the Americas. There's a lot of detail here in my report and I guess it just gets Mr. Osborne that I'm a better researcher and a true long.

     

    Yossi is also correct that Arena is licensing elsewhere so there is reason to understand why Belviq is projected to be a block-buster drug once you compile on the rest of the world.
    1 Oct 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • m_yossi
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Moral Investing,

     

    CS target is a real joke!

     

    Not only because of Mkt cap (if pps is $4) and the cash they have at the moment,

     

    They totally forgot Arena's very promising Pipeline:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aHm7iR

     

    http://bit.ly/1aHm9qS

     

    No value for PAH treatment (APD811) through 2018 ? ? ?

     

    APD811 will be Phase III ready during 2014!

     

    No value for more indications (such as T2DM and Addictions)?

     

    No value for Lorc/Phen and Lorc/Met through 2018 ? ? ?

     

    Real joke!
    1 Oct 2013, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Moral.....

     

    What you imagine is quite wrong. I am not at all upset that you found a document from Eisai that provides a chart 6 months after that information was first published by Eisai and almost two months after the later presentation you are citing was produced.

     

    I am happy you are catching up

     

    By the way....Eisai is not licenses for the rest of the world. Eisais licensing is well known and has been discussed for months. I suspect you come to this revelation soon
    1 Oct 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Moral Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mr. Osborne, In a way I feel sorry for you, but I know you won't understand that. As it stands, we'll end today's conversation here as I only can hope that in time you'll come to understand that the way we will be remembered is the way we treated others. Hurting others is a high price to pay. Take care.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • yale1066
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    This discussion does not sound like two longs in agreement. If you are long you think the story is sound...and comment accordingly, and have a generally positive outlook. I am more inclined to listen to what Arena and Easai have stated than CS or other parties with motivations that are suspect.
    1 Oct 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • BudTuba
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    The long path to a blockbuster is more feasible than expecting
    Belviq to take off immediately. I also am critical of Mr Osbourne's parabolic curve to the first year sales' projections. I think the factors that will really drive scripts will be F2F encounters of friends sharing obesity solutions and social sites like Facebook that will clue people into the potential and the lack of serious side effects. Certainly when you read the full page ad in Ophra, it feels like your taking your life into a dangerous adventure, not an upbeat opportunity.
    2 Oct 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • PlainDealer
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Excellent information and presentation! Thank you M.I.!
    8 Oct 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
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