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Wall Street Strategies has been providing independent stock market research since 1991 to individual, retail and institutional clients through a balanced approach to investing and trading. Charles Payne, our founder and chief analyst, is routinely sought after for his stock market, political,... More
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  • A Cry Goes Up Both Far and Near By: Charles Payne 0 comments
    Aug 5, 2010 10:03 AM | about stocks: RL, PCLN, BC, PII, COH, ISRG, SNDK, AMZN, HOTT, BKE, LB, COST
    "Speed of lightning, roar of thunder
    Fighting all who rob or plunder"
    It's not showing up in confidence data and surveys but I suspect that more and more people with jobs that believe they've survived the layoff scare are going back to the malls. This is especially true of people at the upper-end of the income range. These are the same people that are being raked over the coals for not spending and as a result, the government should cut to the chase and snatch the money from them via higher taxes. It reminds me of the opening scene from the "Underdog" cartoon when Riff Raff and his boys turned someone upside down to shake out all of their money.

    But these people do spend money and are no longer afraid of walking down the streets of Manhattan with Bloomingdales bags.

    Oprah may want to reconsider carrying Ralph Lauren Black Label because the stuff is flying off the shelves. People are buying off-road recreational vehicles and taking trips. They aren't the masses, but their spending carries a wallop, while sending a message they don't have to feel guilty anymore.

    * Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) beat by 35.9%
    * Priceline Beat (NASDAQ:PCLN) by 16.6%
    * Brunswick (NYSE:BC) beat by 650.0%
    * Polaris (NYSE:PII) beat by 10.3%

    It's a shame that some politicians feel the need to punish success and use the excuse of too much thrift as justification. There is a need to fear! These are big boys and girls, not a Polly Purebred in the bunch, but they aren't going to spend or invest if they have to fork over more money to the government than they get to keep.

    Another interesting trend has been reversals of these harsh, knee-jerk reactions to earnings. Yesterday, Coach (NYSE:COH) was up huge after the Street sold it off the day before. The company's CEO is great, and someone to bet on. Last week, SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) opened under $40.00 in response to its earnings release (we thought it was a great release); the stock was hammered and is now up 15% (I'm so angry as I was this close to featuring it on that dip). Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) also saw massing selling creating huge, short-term trading opportunities. I'm not sure if individual investors are being shaken out or if the fast money crowd, which buys nothing based on conviction of fundamentals, just wanted to take the money and run. But it shows me achievement is being rewarded, even if delayed, and that is a buy signal.

    More than Anecdotal

    The Cass Freight Index is showing signs of life not seen since the end of 2008. The Index is pegged to the value of January 1990 as 1, and for the first time since December 2008, the "shipments" line is above the 1990 level. There seems to be some kind of correlation to the market. Either way, it's a welcomed development.
     
    Early Note on Same-Store Sales
    By: Brian Sozzi, Equity Research Analyst

    I think some very definitive lines are being drawn in the sand. If one was a teen apparel retailer, the promotions absolutely hurt the comp and second quarter earnings (Hot Topic [HOTT] guided down, Buckle [BKE] disappointment, Limited [LTD] in spite of a strong comp beat only raised guidance by $0.05 per share on the low-end). I feel as if the teen apparel players refrained from providing second quarter guidance in the hopes of having a solid second half of July. As of right now, that has not happened, again this speaks to the high level of promotions. However, there have been surprising pockets of strength, such as Limited with the aforementioned +12% comp and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) registering a +10% comp in their softlines category (jewelry, home furnishings were noted).

    All in all, this is a clean month, meaning no calendar shifts. The weather was warm. Back to school items were on the shelves. Some will note this was a clearance month and while true to a certain extent, I think the month is a good indication as to the consumer appetite to (1) pay full-price; and (2) pay full price for fall items when the weather is hot, aka making the investment.

    The guidance from many of the companies we monitor is appearing to be a little shaky at this moment.


    Disclosure: none
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