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Ivo P. Janecka, MD, MBA, PhD
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Bio-excerpts Education in medicine (MD), business (MBA), and management/decisions sciences (PhD) Published: 131 peer-reviewed scientific articles 74 chapters/reviews; 6 books (4 as Editor, 2 as Associate Editor);
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  • Kondratieff’s cycle today...Comment on Karl Denninger's article http://seekingalpha.com/article/181488-here-it-comes-consider-yourself-warned?source=email 2 comments
    Jan 8, 2010 12:57 PM

    It’s interesting that you discuss the Kondratieff’s cycle today as I made a reference to the Long Wave yesterday. The point there was that Paul Krugman’s estimate for another 18 years of poor economy would bring us to 2028. That timeframe I previously calculated from a 300 year-old chart of commodity prices as the bottom of the Kondratieff’s Long Wave: 2026-2028 (tables are on InstaBlog seekingalpha.com/instablog/139406-ivo-p-...)

     

    You also felt that these cycles seem to happen because those with memory (I would add “vivid” memory- explanation is below) of major turning points are not alive when the next key rotation occurs. At first, this explanation seems counter-intuitive. Why wouldn’t we learn from history about such events/processes because we do learn/remember many benefits of history in areas of our intellectual learning?  It is a historic fact that we don’t learn/believe in the cycling of historical events, at least not those associated with our emotions. Contrary to our intellectual/logical learning, human emotional growth/learning goes through the same cycle over and over again with each subsequent generation. Each newborn goes through the same cycles of development… terrible twos, difficult teens, etc. Essentially, there is no benefit of history here except when you intellectually accept the notion that our emotions precede our thoughts and affect /color our decisions. Anatomically, the emotion-related older/reptilian brain centers are activated before our logical/frontal lobes of brain, hence one plausible explanation for the described phenomenon. Repeating behavioral history may be analogous to the embryonic development where phylogeny recapitulates ontogeny.


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