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Ivo P. Janecka, MD, MBA, PhD
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Bio-excerpts Education in medicine (MD), business (MBA), and management/decisions sciences (PhD) Published: 131 peer-reviewed scientific articles 74 chapters/reviews; 6 books (4 as Editor, 2 as Associate Editor);
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  • Is there a message in the 300+ year old chart? 6 comments
    Jun 2, 2009 12:22 PM

    In a recent posting (The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes http://seekingalpha.co... Feb 23, 2009), James Wood published a chart courtesy of James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial:


    James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial

    If the dates are extracted from the chart and schematically put in relationships of Kondratieff’s Long Wave, interesting observations emerge (see tables below). It appears that the cycles of each Wave since 1730 are shortening, including the +/- difference among cycle pairs. If this relationship pattern continues, the projected end of the current Long Wave may not occur until 2028.  

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  •  
    The data is open to each persons interpretation of said data.
    Too bad Stalin murdered Kondratieff. What a waste of a brilliant mind.
    The wave frequency can not be altered to fit the data. The frequency is what it is. Nicolais would be rolling over in his grave!
    21 Jun 2009, 03:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Great comment Donald and last name, I might add!
    10 Jan 2010, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I think all this shows is that when you break out of a downtrend, go long.
    14 Jul 2009, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    It seems that all cycles need adjustment in order to stay in sync with still larger cycles; even our calendar has a leap year.


    On Jun 21 03:40 AM Donald Ingram wrote:

    > The data is open to each persons interpretation of said data.
    > Too bad Stalin murdered Kondratieff. What a waste of a brilliant
    > mind.
    > The wave frequency can not be altered to fit the data. The frequency
    > is what it is. Nicolais would be rolling over in his grave!
    19 Jul 2009, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Sorry, but I am reminded of the old axe from Warren Buffett, beware of geeks bearing formulas. Ben Stein had an interesting lunch with Buffett back in December 2009 and wrote an fascinating piece on CNN. I thought it was interesting that when the discussion turned to the economy, Warren brought up the 1953 recession, which was a V shaped recovery.

    "This, however, said Buffett, was not a reason to doubt the stock market's 2009 comeback. Buffett noted that the biggest gain the Dow had ever notched in the postwar period came in 1954 when, according to him, the unemployment numbers were dismal (although nowhere near as bad as today's) until late in the year, when a rapid recovery began. The same thing could be happening now, he said. (I checked this later and as usual, Buffett had it right about the recovery from the 1953-54 slowdown.)"

    Sometimes a duck is just a duck...
    10 Jan 2010, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Sorry. You can play the exceptions. I'll play the rule.
    16 Jan 2010, 07:02 PM Reply Like
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