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  • Refiner price targets & market segment 0 comments
    Aug 17, 2009 09:32 PM | about stocks: ALJ, CLMT, DK, FTO, HOC, SUN, TSO, VLO, WNR
    These are my late Q1 2010 price targets for several Refiners.
     
    ALJ – 11.25 = target, (current price = 8.81)
    CLMT – 15.15 = target, (current price = 13.63)
    DK – 9.70 = target, (current price = 7.02)
    FTO – 15.00 = target, (current price = 12.54)
    HOC – 25.00 = target, (current price = 21.32)
    SUN – 31.50 = target, (current price = 24.85)
    TSO – 18.00 = target, (current price = 12.97)
    VLO – 25.00 = target, (current price = 17.15)
    WNR – 11.50 = target, (current prices = 6.05)
    *current price = market close as of 08/17/09
     
    For disclosure purposes I own shares and I’m long WNR, I have no current position in any of the companies above with the exception of WNR at this time.
     
    I believe that ALJ, DK, and WNR are all potential takeover targets by companies looking to expand operations irregardless of the current debt load that these companies may have. In my opinion WNR is the prime takeover candidate of these three simply due to the fact that they have an excellent operations base in the Southwest and I believe that the Southwest is viewed as a high growth area. The Mid-Atlantic region Yorktown refinery allows WNR to take advantage of the “East coast” Oil market and is strategically located on the York River.
     
    I believe that both SUN and VLO may be looking to expand operations in the future and in addition to some of the larger integrated players these two may be looking to expand via acquisitions.
     
    When a market segment is down and is being counted out then that seems to be the time that some of the more explosive growth occurs and that’s what I feel like is happening with the U.S. refining market at this time.
    Themes: Energy, Oil, Gasoline, Diesel, Refining Stocks: ALJ, CLMT, DK, FTO, HOC, SUN, TSO, VLO, WNR
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