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John Thomas graduated with a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry with honors and a minor in mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles (U.C.L.A.) in 1974. He moved to Tokyo, Japan where he was employed by a medium-sized Japanese securities house. Thomas became fluent in Japanese... More
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  • OIL: How Long Until the Next Super Spike? 0 comments
    Apr 12, 2009 12:22 PM | about stocks: USO, OIH, OIL, UGA

    Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Partners says that crude prices will stay in a $40 to $60 range for the foreseeable future. The author of the Pulitzer Prize winning “The Prize”, the best business book I have ever read, believes the recent 26% rally in the stock market is what dragged crude up from $35 to $54. Another downdraft in stocks, or a realization that the recession will be longer than expected, could take crude back to $40 in a heartbeat. Inventories are at a 16 year high, with possibly 80 million barrels at sea, as demand has shrunk from 86 to 83.5 million barrels a day over the last two years.  Spare capacity is now huge. Don’t expect to break out of this range until a recovering economy eats into these supplies, and inflation makes its inevitable return. Then all commodities will roar, not just crude.

    Stocks: USO, OIH, OIL, UGA
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