I just returned from a fishing trip with some very top dogs in the financial industry.
Over the next year, they see continued shake-out in the banking industry with several big failures on the horizon.
They anticipate an additional trillion dollars in write-offs and a new bottom for the stock market.
They believe that we have entered a new era and there will be no return to business as usual. The private equity game may be over and will never again reach the levels of 2005-2007.
Luxury is dead. Hanging out with family is preferred to hanging out with other rich people.
Firms are staying busy with restructuring deals.
Finally, banks don't want to sell there toxic assets now that mark to market has been eased. They can hang on to the securities now and not take the losses they would if they sold.
Recovery will be very slow and take a very long time, at least 5 years.
I tell you what though. Some of these guys can really fish.