Seeking Alpha

Joseph L. Shaefer's  Instablog

Joseph L. Shaefer
Send Message
Joseph L. Shaefer is the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Stanford Wealth Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Retired senior executive of Charles Schwab and Co. Retired (36 years) active and reserve military service -- six in special operations, the next 30 in the intelligence... More
My company:
Stanford Wealth Management LLC
My blog:
The Investor's Edge
My book:
Bringing Home the Gold
  • Canadian Royalty Trusts – Will Dividends Rise or Fall? 1 comment
    Oct 19, 2009 11:26 PM | about stocks: ERF, PGH, PTF, PWI, PBA, PWE, HTE

    Some may scoff at the question.  "Of course they must decline," they say.  After all, we know that it is "likely" that in 2011 Canadian energy royalty trusts will lose their special status as non-taxpaying entities which flow income directly to unitholders (with no revenue flowing to the provinces or nation in which they are located except that paid by the very few employees of the trust who reside in that province or nation.)

    Whether you like the Canadian provinces’ and Canada’s national decision or not, you must admit the current structure does seem a bit unfair – the Canadian provinces and national government provide roads for these companies’ royalty-paying firms to drive on, schools for their kids, etc., but the only income the provinces or federals  receive in return is the scant amount they receive from the personal income taxes of the few employees that work to flow the royalty income to the unitholders.

    So let’s take a fresh look at Canadian energy royalty trusts as if they were already being levied taxes on their earnings since that will probably happen, like it or not, in 2011.  (There is always a slim chance that IF the Liberal Party wins the next election and IF they can get the votes and IF they decide to pursue it, the current tax-advantaged structure could continue.  I don’t consider it likely but if it did happen, it would give an “extra” rocket boost to the Canadian energy royalty trusts…)

    These royalty trusts (often called “CanRoys”) usually own 100% of oil and/or natural gas wells and/or mineral rights on a portion of producing wells, and/or mineral rights on other types of properties containing “wasting” assets like oil and gas, such as coal or metals.  To be entitled to the current tax pass-through treatment, an outside company must do the actual work of extracting / producing the resource while the CanRoy has just a few employees to process their royalty income from the operators of the field or mine and distribute it pro rata to the unitholders.

    Since most CanRoys own interests in a number of individual wells, oil fields, or mines, they offer an easy way to diversify investments across a number of different propertie, sort of like ETFs do for a particular investment sector.

    Whether or not the CanRoys enjoyed a special tax advantage – and they will most likely not do so going forward – their success also rests upon two other factors that are equally important and which have gotten lost in the shuffle as everyone focuses upon their need to reserve funds to pay taxes:
    1 -- What is the price of the underlying commodity, and
    2 -- Is the CanRoy replacing assets faster than it is depleting them or depleting them faster than it is replacing them?

    This last issue is quite important since, by the time the exploration and production companies spin off the assets by creating a new CanRoy or by selling them to an existing one, those wells or mines are typically beyond their peak producing years, so their revenue will gradually decline – by definition, their distributions, taxed or untaxed, will decline as well unless they are particularly adept at replacing assets either by being solid negotiators or by having cash to buy when the underlying assets are cheap.

    Then there is the price (and just as importantly, the expectations of where that price will go) of the underlying commodity itself.  If other investors believe natural gas, for instance, is going to $1 per million BTUs (MMBtu) – as most did recently, when it was selling at $2 per MMBtu – but you choose to buy at the bottom, you could score quite the coup.  It's the same with these CanRoys.

    That's because one key difference between CanRoys and US royalty trusts is that, in the US, once a trust is formed with x number of properties, they are not allowed to acquire additional properties. Because they are restricted to owning only their original properties, by definition their distributions will decline over time until, ultimately, the trust will be dissolved. But CanRoys can be actively managed so they can issue new shares or debt in order to buy more properties.  For this reason alone, I would prefer the CanRoys to US-based royalty trusts.

    So how do we best assess the three primary factors that will determine the distribution payouts – and capital gains prospects – of CanRoys going forward?  And which ones might stack up the best?

    1.  Tax changes.  Penn West Energy (NYSE:PWE) in 2007, the year after the national government announced that CanRoys would be converted to tax-paying corporations in 2011, said the following in their Annual Report: For U.S. investors, the distribution yield net of the SIFT and withholding taxes would fall by an estimated 25.1 percent in 2011 and 23.8 percent in 2012 and beyond.”  Okay, let’s say that for this variable, distributions will decline by 25%.  So a 10% yield will become “just” 7.5%.  A 12% yield would decline to “only” 9%.  Etc.

    2.  The price of the underlying commodity.  It seems to me this is where the pendulum swings back in the CanRoy investor’s favor.   Is there any question that India, China and the other emerging nations will use more gas, oil, coal, uranium, timber, etc. in the future than they do today?  If I walk today, I covet a bicycle.  If I have a bike, I wish I had a scooter.  If I have a scooter, I imagine what it would be like to have a car.  There will be cyclical downturns of course, but the secular trend goes only one way: demand up, supply struggling to keep up.  If oil, gas, coal, etc. rise in value by 25% even as the distributions decline 25%, that means no change.  So far, advantage CanRoys.

    3.  Asset replacement.  Is the CanRoy replacing assets faster than it is depleting them or depleting them faster than it is replacing them?  Here the advantage goes to the larger, better-capitalized CanRoys.  Currently, the limits on how many new units Canadian trusts can issue is based on their market capitalization. This places smaller trusts at a competitive disadvantage, but any nimble firm that replaces assets faster than it produces them will do well.  Advantage: All CanRoys, especially the bigger ones and especially the ones that have a lower payout ratio (meaning they keep a good chunk of cash to acquire new assets at good prices) and a long reserve life (meaning they can pick and choose when to buy assets.)

    Based upon the above 3 criteria, I can suggest for your consideration and research the following CanRoys:   Enerplus Resources Fund (NYSE:ERF), Pengrowth Energy Trust (NYSE:PGH), Petrofund Energy Trust (NYSEARCA:PTF), PrimeWest Energy Trust (NASDAQ:PWI), Provident Energy Trust (PVX), Penn West Energy Trust (PWE), and Harvest Energy (HTE).  Of these – again, based upon my 3 primary criteria – I am buying ERF, PWE and PGH.
     

    Beyond the usual market risk caveats and the caveat not to place all your eggs, or even all your yield eggs, in the same basket, I should note that since Canadian trusts are not organized as corporations, in theory unitholders currently have unlimited liability for the actions of the trust. In practice, however, it unlikely in the extreme that unit holders will ever be liable for the trusts’ actions.  And – in the Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining Department – as they convert to corporate status, even this disadvantage goes away.
     

    Advantage: CanRoys, old or new.
     

    Full Disclosure: Long ERF, PWE, PGH.

    The Fine Print: As Registered Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following: We do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth Management, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice.

    Also, past performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement if you review the records of many alleged gurus, but important nonetheless –our Investors Edge ® Growth and Value Portfolio has beaten the S&P 500 for 10 years running but there is no guarantee that we will continue to do so.

    It should not be assumed that investing in any securities we are investing in will always be profitable. We take our research seriously, we do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the investments we write about.

    Themes: Energy, Canada, Income Stocks: ERF, PGH, PTF, PWI, PBA, PWE, HTE
Back To Joseph L. Shaefer's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (1)
Track new comments
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Another feature relevant to prospective purchasers is the fact that many Canroys are converting into regular tax paying companies in anticipation of the loss in 2011 of their status as non-taxpaying entities; a step encouraged by the transitional taxation rules governing the ending in 2011 of the capacity of Canroys ability to pass on to unit holders their profits untaxed (save for the 15% withholding tax levied on payments made outside Canada). While losing their capacity to pass through to unit holders their profits essentially untaxed, they gain the normal tax deductions applicable to other oil and gas companies.

     

    Importantly the depletion allowance applicable as a regular company can by these special transitional rules be calculated and applied not only for the years after conversion to corporate status but also for a specified number of years before 2011. In other words, as a cushion to facilitate the ending of the special status as non-taxpaying entities, Canroys that convert to regular corporate status carry over in many cases substantial tax deduction pools that they can apply after conversion to reduce their tax burden (and thereby remain better able to continue higher payments to shareholders).

     

    The forgoing is only intended to give a sense of how the transition for 2011 is being managed by both the Canadian taxing authorities and the Canroys. Details about corporate tax deductions and how they will apply to particular Canroys are matters interested persons should seek advice from their brokers about before deciding whether or not to buy Canroys now.
    7 Nov 2009, 02:03 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.