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Stock, Options, ETF and Commodities Investor; My educational background is in Computer Science and Accounting with significant entrepreneurial and Fortune 100 Corporate experience in Information Management and Technology services in industries including: Consulting, Oil and Gas, Manufacturing,... More
  • DGAZ - Buying Dips And Selling Rallies 31 comments
    Mar 4, 2014 12:09 AM | about stocks: DGAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, KOLD

    Natural Gas and DGAZ provided another good trading day on the volatility today, and I hope everyone was able to enjoy and benefit from the movements. If you were like me, over the weekend and this morning, you were considering impact on your overall portfolio and individual positions of the tensions in the Ukraine with Russia and the Western world.

    Fortunately, for the US Natural Gas market, our market today is relatively isolated - which is different from the world Oil markets. In the future, when LNG is traded more freely globally, our NG markets may mirror more closely how the crude markets respond to Global crisis outside our country, as supply and demand patterns could become interrupted by such events - or, at least risk profiles would change on our supply and demand outlook.

    At present, I see little, if any impact on our NG markets from tensions in the Ukraine. There just is nothing from this conflict so far that has impact on our local supply and demand of NG.

    Here is a current daily chart of NG from 11/18 to present:

    In the near term, I see us most likely to maintain the trading range between the thin horizontal lines, providing opportunity toward to higher end (to be a buyer of DGAZ) and toward the lower end (being a seller of portions of our DGAZ positions), in order to seek out repositioning with cheaper shares from the high end range.

    If we turn out to have continuing extreme weather beyond what we already know is ahead for the US this week, or, weather patterns change significantly to spring weather (and reigning in injections to storage), then I see us potentially breaking out of the ranges and into the ranges marked by the thicker horizontal lines. Based on what we know today, I see the probability that we breakout to the downside being stronger than the probability of us breaking out to the upside and moving to the 5.0 or 5.2 range again.

    As a result, when we get to the lower end of the range in NG - higher range for DGAZ which has been about 3.75 DGAZ, I will be a seller of about 1/4 of my position in hopes of repositioning - but won't sell greater than 1/4 in the event we continue to go lower in NG and higher in DGAZ so I don't miss the move with the bulk of my position. Today, I did get the fill on an order to sell about 1/4 of my position at 3.75 and will be looking to buy those shares back at lower prices in the near future - perhaps tomorrow morning if the opportunity is there.

    Here is a current chart on DGAZ with separate chart including MACD:

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    On this chart, I've marked the ranges I think we are likely to see in DGAZ, as it relates to the NG ranges. I've marked the low end of DGAZ at about $3.00, although what we have seen has been in the 3.10-3.20 range on the low side. In premarket today, we saw lows of around 3.30 in DGAZ which provided a nice buy opportunity. Any time we get into the 3.10 to 3.20 range on DGAZ, I will definitely be a buyer. And, if we find our way to 3.00 or below (barring any major concerning change in fundamentals, then I will be a strong buyer and extend my position with more cash than I have allocated so far to these trades). In my cost basis, I still have some shares bought at 2.60 and 2.81. The only regret I have at present is, that when we found those levels that I didn't go in with a much larger buy at those prices. If we get the opportunity again - I will definitely make additional sacrifices for that value.

    A couple interesting things to note. On the MACD portion of the chart, the first time we received the buy signal of bullish MACD crossover - (see the circle on the MACD histogram), our price performance of DGAZ actually went down, which was very surprising to me - although, representative of how performance to technical indicators can be skewed with leveraged ETF's against commodity contracts. The pricing of commodities contracts can be a bit unpredictable and the perceived value of prices can be purchased strongly in the ETF's contra to what we would normally expect. However, MACD signals have strengthened to the bullish side and we have seen the price action aligned. Interestingly, we do see reduced volume in DGAZ, but that would be explained by the expectation from the market that there is less value at higher price levels and still risk we could run to the top of the range in NG and get better DGAZ prices while weather and storage withdrawals are still in the picture. Buyers have definitely piled into DGAZ when prices were at the low extremes.

    I promised some readers I would come back to the price target discussion, although, I caution that price targets I perceive to be "at risk". My original thesis, and one that made this NG/DGAZ trade very compelling, is based on prior UGAZ/DGAZ spread an the closure of the spread. With this in mind, here is the latest using a chart of DGAZ and running a Compare with UGAZ.

    (click to enlarge)

    The grey circle highlights where I think we are generally in the spread timeline. That is, in our current spread, I think we are in the upturn off the double bottom. Now, there is no guarantee that performance will behave in the same manner, but notice that if this is where we are, there is a significant gap run in DGAZ in a single day uptrend - which would likely translate to a breakout to the downside in NG. If we repeat this pattern, as soon as tomorrow we could see a breakout in NG to below 4.4, providing a significant pop in DGAZ. But, considering volatility and fundamentals we have had with this winter, my expectation is that our rise will be more gradual until this winter weather subsides or we have a big surprise on the storage reports. I would certainly welcome a pleasant surprise however.

    The first blue circle drawn in the center of the chart reflects the peak in DGAZ after it closed the spread and crossed over UGAZ in the prior spread. This is the formation that would result in me closing out my original thesis for the DGAZ trade I'm involved in now.

    One reader asked today, when would I sell all my DGAZ shares - at what price target? The 2nd blue circle represents the target aligned to my original thesis. Along with it are assumptions and risk factors that could mean we don't accomplish this thesis. My response was, if we only see a peak in DGAZ of 7, instead of 12-14, I want us to trade profitably anyway. If we do get to 12-14 range, then I hope we capitalized on our profit opportunities along the way, as well as from the full trade range DGAZ affords us. After all my analysis and study of the NG market dynamics, I would not recommend just a buy and hold view with the expectation that we hit the 12-14 range, or even the DGAZ/UGAZ crossover and peak we have seen in the past. I do however, still hold some level of expectancy that this will happen.

    In the meantime, I am flexible on what the indicators are, fundamentals or market dynamics and plan to adjust accordingly. If something changes severely tomorrow that makes me turn bullish on NG from my bearish view, then I would be willing to throw out my original thesis, sell all my DGAZ position and get on the other side of this trade. For now, I'm still working this trade in line with my original thesis - but taking profits and repositioning shares and cost basis as explained throughout my articles on this topic.

    Winter weather and storage reports hold the key to any bull run potential I see - posing the greatest present risk to my original thesis for DGAZ. Looking to this upcoming report, below is the readers poll taken from the First Enercast website, polling for last week, which will be reported on by the EIA in the Storage report release this week on Thursday at 10:30 am ET.

    (click to enlarge)

    From the poll, expectations seem to again be mostly for the 100-109 bcf withdrawal range but again, the estimate is hedged with there could be revision downwards relative to warmer weather across much of the US (definitely not in the NE yet) and some of the weaker pipeline volumes reported.

    Last week, the number came in at 93 bcf, very bullish for DGAZ, but NG rallied and DGAZ went down for probably an hour or two before the bear move kicked in on NG. Of course, we could see a similar pattern again this week. On this storage report, or upcoming storage reports through March, I think our risk of NG running out of the expected range to the upside would be based on a surprise higher withdrawal from storage or inventory levels than is projected. Other than this risk, I continue to look for mostly range bound levels in NG with a breakout more likely to the downside - bullish for DGAZ.

    Disclosure: I am long DGAZ.

    Additional disclosure: I also am long BOIL puts. I may trade and reposition DGAZ shares based on dynamics associated with the Natural Gas Market. I may also trade in and out of UGAZ, or buy/sell calls and puts on BOIL or KOLD (2X Leveraged ETFs on Natural Gas Index).The thoughts and opinions in this article, along with all stock talk posts made by the Author, are my own and are shared on the basis of helping others learn, to provoke other points of view that help us all on our journey to become better investors. My posts are never intended to provide investment advice. Investors should always view multiple sources of information in their due diligence process.

    Stocks: DGAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, KOLD
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Comments (31)
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  • gaklaw
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the article Grow
    4 Mar 2014, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are certainly welcome, Gak. Wishing you profitable trading today!
    4 Mar 2014, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IMPORTANT UPDATE: The poll posted in my article from last night is the poll for last weeks storage report. So far, a poll from this week has not been posted on this site. If and when it is, I will find a way to post that to this article or produce another one.

     

    In the meantime, traders who are a part of the poll on this site in a forum are estimating a draw for Thursdays report of around 135 bcf. On one of the seeking alpha stocktalk forums, another participant shared with me that he read an estimate from Powerburn, that estimates -143bcf draw for this upcoming report. I will continue to research to see what I can find out.

     

    A report at these levels, would be roughly 45 to 50% higher than last weeks report of -93 bcf, and might result in a bullish move. But, the tension between continuing cold winter weather and withdrawals vs spring/milder upcoming temperatures and injections should continue to drive some volatility.

     

    At this point, my plan is to go into the Storage report this week, both with core holdings of DGAZ and BOIL puts along with some cash ready to put to work. I will buy on a big rally that gets us to DGAZ 3.3 or lower for sure and sell on good NG falls (DGAZ 3.75 or greater).
    4 Mar 2014, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Today offered some good buy opportunities in DGAZ in pre-market as well as later afternoon as the bulls managed to put together a good rally. At present, NG is still trading in the 4.637 range. At our US market close, it looked like NG was going to have a good fall and rally DGAZ, but that has turned in the current market.

     

    Today, I was able to re-position the DGAZ shares I sold yesterday at 3.75, at 3.38 today so took profit and reduced cost basis a bit. Added some additional at 3.31 and 3.28.

     

    Based on bullish move today taking us a little higher in range, our range trades on DGAZ could shift a bit, say from 3.25 to 3.60 (rather than the 3.35 to 3.75) daily ranges we have seen the past few trading days.

     

    This colder weather across the US is bringing the bulls back in and we may see some moves on the upside in NG over the next couple weeks. As soon as signs and forecasts start appearing on the other side of this though, the bear for NG will start heavier and DGAZ should rally nicely.
    4 Mar 2014, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
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    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, the range did apply. Normal trading hours yielded a trading range of 3.28 to 3.59. I thought for a while there we were going to break out above 3.6 in DGAZ as the downtrend in NG was strong. But, when we hit the 4.507 area, the bulls came running in and never looked back.

     

    NG appears to be fading a little now after the run up. Key direction from here is going to be the storage report tomorrow and whether the draw is larger than expected (bullish) or less than expected (bearish).

     

    I would expect tomorrow to drive us into a wider trading range than we have seen the past couple days.
    5 Mar 2014, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Pilania
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Great information Grow. Good luck trading.
    4 Mar 2014, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • antioxidant
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    appreciate you encouraging commentary and especially the time you take to reboot your research and analysis-completely with you on the cost basis lowering process
    5 Mar 2014, 01:48 AM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Updated Storage Poll for Report tomorrow morning at 10:30 ET:

     

    View Poll Results: Storage for EIA report date 3/6/14
    Below -119 Bcf 0 0%
    -120 to -129 3 10.71%
    -130 to -139 8 28.57%
    -140 to -149 12 42.86%
    Above --150 5 17.86%
    5 Mar 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • MagicQuote2014
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Technical Comment:$DGAZ and trading guidance.
    I am long DGAZ since 12noon EST.
    Turned positive $3.38 from temporary Stop Floor at $3.24
    Running. First upside pivot target 3.57, second is $3.76.
    Watch short term slopes.
    Good luck Traders.
    MQ
    5 Mar 2014, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for sharing the information here, MQ. Can you define the concept of the pivot points? Are these similar to support lines?
    5 Mar 2014, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » An interesting day today for NG and DGAZ. While we started the day with highs in DGAZ around that of the end of day yesterday around 3.57, the storage report came out with a draw at the high end of the range -159bcf, which definitely was bullish.

     

    NG ran up to about 4.693 fairly quickly and stagnated in the 4.63 to 4.66 range, but ending the day a little on the bearish side.

     

    Trading range in DGAZ still appears to be in tact so far - 3.20 to 3.60. Bulls and bears will likely continue the struggle driving volatility. As the range continues to tighten, it is going to be interesting to see which way we break out.

     

    Next weeks storage report should be bullish based on last weeks cold weather across the US. Looking beyond that however, all appearances are warming trend and injection season is about upon us.
    6 Mar 2014, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Day 1 of the Apr to May contract roll completed.

     

    Spread between Apr and May contract about $0.05.
    .2 allocation today to May, means loss of approx. .01 on NAV.

     

    DGAZ Market Pricing:
    Close yesterday: 3.26
    Close today: 3.32

     

    The roll did not have any negative effect on us today. We gained .06.
    7 Mar 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Never Again
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for continued excellence in your articles / analysis Grow. I wonder, given the updated forecast of more cold Wx out to 14 days - and continued tensions in Ukrane - have you adjusted expectations. Inventories will clearly see sub 750 levels at the end of the month. Matching the record injection season of 2.4 Bcf puts the inventory level around 3.1-3.2 Bcf in Nov 14. That equates to a mid 4 ng price for the year, as a minimum, and in my mind and is a signal to get out of DGAZ immediately. Your thoughts?
    10 Mar 2014, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exactly what the bulls want us to think. Relative to uncertainty and volatility, I think it is a difficult time to be a buy and hold DGAZ holder. But, continuing to play the volatility as bulls move the price too far (buy DGAZ) to the corrections that happen afterwards, (sell DGAZ) continues to be the play for now.

     

    Estimates I'm seeing through End of the Month may put us around 900+bcf end of March at the lowest. Major storm could adjust downwards a bit, but prices in NG have dropped significantly in some past years when storage levels were very low. So, It think the big move in DGAZ is still possible - although, yes, more questionable today than it was when I started this trade.

     

    My time frame is looking at Apr/May target. If storage levels go too low and we can't fill to reasonable levels by end of fall, then that will be a pricing issue for next winter - not for the time frame I'm working on for now.

     

    Certainly as we get into the spring/early summer season, I will want to evaluate what is happening then and provide updates.
    10 Mar 2014, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • MagicQuote2014
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Technical Comment: Important review here from MQ
    1.DGAZ is testing lows here at 3.23 to 3.25 at 11:18EST. $NATGAS price stable today at $4.62. It is clear to me that 6.40 on Feb 20th was the high of the Winter.
    On Feb 20th. DGAZ was $3.11. It is up only 4% since then and is the triple EFT short, meanwhile $NATGAS cash price is down 28% from 6.40 to 4.62! In comparison $UGAZ was at $36 on Feb 20th and is now trading at 27.65 down 25%.

     

    Mathematically it does not make sense. DGAZ should climb to 3.11 x 1.25= $3.88 and should be trading there now.

     

    If DGAZ does not break here it could start the climb back to around 3.43-3.53 in the trading range we discussed
    between 3.15-3.53... this is a classic battle between buyers and sellers at lower volumes from 33 million trade on 3/6 last Thursday.
    Good Luck Traders.
    10 Mar 2014, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • MagicQuote2014
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Sharing My DGAZ long trade
    Just purchased DGAZ at 3.30 with stop at 3.22
    Looks like it scraped bottom today from high of 3.43 from low of 3.22. I am buying right in the middle on the way back up with initial target 3.42, then 3.53
    10 Mar 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good plan, MQ. If we can get the drop in NG and rally in DGAZ from the levels we hit not going back to the overnight highs, we should have more room to run to the upside. One good run early this week would be nice.

     

    Looking at storage report later this week, a good draw is expected and should give the bulls a chance for one more rally opportunity. After that, we should see more pressure downwards on NG, I think.
    10 Mar 2014, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting that NG is holding fairly steady around the 4.62 area, which is the pivot point - or, perhaps considered the point of value the bulls and bears agree on as they fight this out. Here mid day, not much conviction by the bulls or the bears to move the price much from this level.

     

    This is Day 2 of the contract roll from Apr to May so I will post later how we are affected by Day 2 of the roll.
    10 Mar 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here are the Poll Results: Storage for EIA report date 3/13/14
    Above -179 Bcf 0 0%
    -180 to -189 Bcf 4 50.00%
    -190 to -199 Bcf 1 12.50%
    -200 to -209 Bcf 3 37.50%
    Below -210 Bcf 0 0%

     

    Good size draw, larger than last week so the bulls may try to take advantage of this opportunity. But, that may be fleeting as probably the last major draw of this season.
    10 Mar 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Day 2 Roll of contract from Apr to May:
    Weighting: .6 Apr/.4 May
    Spread: .075
    Loss NAV: .03

     

    Market Pricing:
    Close 3/7/14: 3.32
    Close 3/10/14: 3.26
    Loss on Market Pricing: .06 (Loss is due to slight increase in NG price today). Roll effect on Market price appears irrelevant.
    10 Mar 2014, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thoughts on this week:
    - Our trading range has been small the last 2 trading sessions with lows around 3.2 and highs around 3.44
    - Today, sold a good portion of my DGAZ at 3.39 that I will look to reposition at lower entry point again.
    - Considering estimated storage draw for this week of -193 bcf I've seen posted on trading forum, I think the bulls will try to make a good run that should help us to see low prices in DGAZ to re-enter. I missed the pre-market session this morning but heard DGAZ may have traded as low as 3.16.

     

    After a good push by the bulls, with storage draw estimates for the next 3 weeks being for much lower draws, I think late this week or early next week, we finally see NG test lows and potentially breaking through and giving DGAZ a boost - assuming nothing major interrupts this view.
    10 Mar 2014, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • antioxidant
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Grow-
    Based on last week's reaction to the drawdown it would be prudent to anticipate a potential 10% drop in DGAZ on thursday based on where the price is before the 1030 data is released. However there is a good chance that if the total storage amount drops below the 1 billion cubic foot level as a result of the weekly figure, it could certainly drop in an exaggerated fashion. Having cash on hand this week should serve the contrarian investor well.
    10 Mar 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Completely agree with you, antiox. Last couple weeks going into strong withdrawals, NG held low or sold off prior to the storage release, then rallied strongly after release. With a large number expected, I do think the bulls will try to rally it; although, will want to watch behavior going into the report to make sure this still appears to be the case.

     

    If we get low prices in DGAZ over the next couple days, I may go in with about 1/2 the cash on the position that I sold out of today and save the other half for the anticipated rally. I may adjust this and buy stronger if we get really low DGAZ pricing from NG rallies during the next couple days that might head toward the 5 level. However, I don't really expect us to break out above 4.72 level until the report is released and assuming the number does come in strong as expected.

     

    Estimates for following weeks at present are much lower and that should ensure NG prices fall back and DGAZ rallies some time not too long following the report.
    10 Mar 2014, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One more thing to watch. Thursday, we will during the day be 80% on the May NG contract and only 20% on the Apr contract. Most likely if there is a big rally, the May contract will mostly mirror the Apr contract. If the spread does increase, the Apr contract takes off but May does not participate as much, then we would in that case not see as much of a low and new entry point into DGAZ as one might expect. I think the contracts will mostly parallel each other now however, so don't expect this to be a significant factor.
    10 Mar 2014, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Update Day 3 of the Contract Roll from Apr to May:
    Weighting: .4 Apr/.6 May
    Spread: .06
    Loss NAV: .03

     

    Market Pricing:
    Close 3/10/14: 3.26
    Close 3/10/14: 3.36

     

    Gain for holders in DGAZ: $0.10. No loss of value caused by Day 3 of the contract roll.
    11 Mar 2014, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Outlook for this week:
    Today, I sold more of my DGAZ position at 3.39. Cash from this and position sold yesterday I am holding to look for lower entry in DGAZ based on an expected rally in NG.

     

    Storage Report Thursday morning will be for an estimated draw of -193bcf, a significant draw from the cold week we had in the US last week. I'm expecting the bulls to rally this as best they can either going into the report or following the report.

     

    I will be looking for that rally to peak and to try to capture the DGAZ low. Estimates for following weeks over the next 3 weeks are for much lower draws and that just might bring us the pricing environment we are looking for to break out to the upside in DGAZ (and below the 4.4 levels in NG).
    11 Mar 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Update 3/12/14:
    Today certainly price of DGAZ certainly outweighed any .01 loss on NAV and today's close for NAV was based on .8 weighting on the Apr contract versus May .2. The spread is about .05 so no effect from the roll.

     

    As I write this, NG is at 4.478. All appearances are we may see the same pattern as the past 2 weeks. Low NG going into the report. With a big draw at or above estimates, we may see a rally and if so, I'm going to view that as a buy opportunity. Otherwise, I expect us to soon see the DGAZ rally with highs that stretch outside the range we have been trading. Tomorrow could be very interesting. If we do not get a good rally in NG, I may have to deploy cash into DGAZ at prices that will be early in any DGAZ rally, after DGAZ closed today at 3.53.
    12 Mar 2014, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Never Again
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Grow did you buy more DGAZ today? Hopefully this fall in NG
    continues for those of us long on DGAZ.
    13 Mar 2014, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I did buy more DGAZ today. Didn't get lower prices from rally I was hoping for, but bought back in at 3.66, as that was about when the slight bull ran out of steam. DGAZ should be looking good from here. Time for DGAZ to shine but still should be opportunity ahead to play the volatility. Bulls in NG will come out periodically, but knockdowns in DGAZ should be at higher lows for a while now.

     

    Enjoy the ride!
    13 Mar 2014, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • ta8
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Any predictions for tomorrows NG draw? Is it a good time to load up on DGAZ?
    19 Mar 2014, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Growfast
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Working on new article now. I will look at updates on the poll to include. Earlier in the week, the estimated draw was for about -58 bcf, a much lower draw than reported last week. Need to see what the latest thinking is. Hope to have out later this evening.
    19 Mar 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
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