Villi Grdovich's  Instablog

Villi Grdovich
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Villi Grdovich is a professional investor with a strong interest in fundamental and quantitative financial analysis. An engineer by training, he has 25 years experience in finance, firstly in project finance with an Australian bank, and then as an analyst and portfolio manager with a major fund... More
  • Arghhh! 0 comments
    May 8, 2013 2:21 AM

    The first truly bad reversal suffered in a long time with DCO going through the floor and a considerable distance towards China today.

    I understand that one operating division did badly and also has a poor outlook, but could we have known? At the quantitative level, I think the answer is no. Are there any signs which we should have noted?

    That is more difficult. The estimated daily volatility was fluctuating quite wildly and the money flow indicator was at a high level. Then again, the ride was one way up. I suppose that in an environment where people are skeptical of the market highs, these of themselves might be warning signs.

    For the record, GME and IDT do not have similar volatility characteristics, with GME overall the least volatile.

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