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Villi Grdovich
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Villi Grdovich is a professional investor with a strong interest in fundamental and quantitative financial analysis. An engineer by training, he has 25 years experience in finance, firstly in project finance with an Australian bank, and then as an analyst and portfolio manager with a major fund... More
  • SPECIALTY CHEMICALS: A Gift That Keeps On Giving 0 comments
    Apr 30, 2012 2:44 AM

    As at 27 April, the Specialty Chemical portfolio continues to outperform very strongly, while the Pharmaceuticals are doing no better than holding their ground.

    Comparative portfolio returns are:

    The following graph is essentially a timing model which indicates pairs switching as between stocks and bonds. It has been quite a good model over the past few years, and it is currently heading to negative. This indicates that a switch from stocks to bonds (or to low volatility ETF's) should be under consideration.

    What is surprising is that a high beta portfolio like Specialty Chemicals does not reflect a reversal yet. Nevertheless, I am concerned about future performance.

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