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Alex Filonov
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I was born in 1956 in USSR. After graduation from college in 1979 I worked full-time as an IT specialist. Until 1990 I worked for different companies in the Soviet military industrial complex. I created a small software business in 1991, which failed in 1993. I worked for Oracle Corp in 1995 in... More
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Muddling Investor
  • Who Is Going To Pick Up Slack? 3 comments
    Jul 21, 2011 5:58 PM

    Let's assume that current debt crisis is resolved. Let's even assume that there is no damage to US reliability and credibility (Reagan's words, on debt crisis of 1987), or the damage is minimal and quickly dissipated.
    Even if crisis is resolved, we still have a problem. Any deal would include attempts to reduce budget deficit. We are still in depression. Any reduction of deficit, by either raising taxes or reducing expenses, will reduce economic activity., like it did in 1937. There is a high probability that US slips back into recession by the end of 2012, if not sooner. There is no growth in Europe. There is no or little growth in Japan. Latest news suggest that Chinese economy is slowing. Back into worldwide recession?
    I honestly don't see who can pick up the slack. India? Even if it doesn't slow down, it's not enough. And if we don't have significant growth in significant parts of the world, that means one thing: cash is king. Looks like best investments going into 2012 might be cash, Treasuries, muni bonds, some high yield corporate bond funds and selected high growth companies. Maybe liquor companies. Tobacco did great since 2008, but I don't expect anything here anymore. Commodities are especially dangerous.

    I wonder if anybody has different view.

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Comments (3)
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  • anarchist
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Whats your thoughs on holding TBT over the weekend?
    22 Jul 2011, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Alex Filonov
    , contributor
    Comments (1412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm holding my calls. It's a hedge, if debt limit is raised, they are worthless (probably).
    22 Jul 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • anarchist
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    thanks
    22 Jul 2011, 02:58 PM Reply Like
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