Alex Filonov's  Instablog

Alex Filonov
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I was born in 1956 in USSR. After graduation from college in 1979 I worked full-time as an IT specialist. Until 1990 I worked for different companies in the Soviet military industrial complex. I created a small software business in 1991, which failed in 1993. I worked for Oracle Corp in 1995 in... More
My blog:
Muddling Investor
  • Stampede 3 comments
    Apr 12, 2012 5:03 PM | about stocks: DSW, ARMH, GOOG

    I don't know what can scare this bull market. Unemployment report was bad, Fed is not giving investors carrot (I mean, QE), news from Europe are not encouraging, to put it mildly. And market is up!

    First, my take on Europe. I think the biggest problem in Europe was Trichet. His inflexible, stupid, deflationist position created the possibility of sovereign debt crisis. If money is tight and economy is in bad shape, money is going to the safest places. Obviously, some government bonds are safer than others. But crisis wouldn't be that bad if not for hedge funds. Somebody is playing big bear on sovereign debt. I have a strong suspicion that those somebodies influence at least part of media, trying to scare investors. Case in point: another scare this week, this time on Spanish debt. Small change in government finances was reported as a world changing event: look, Spain is going to default and it's 14th biggest economy in the world. If Trichet was still in charge, that scare could actually work. But now ECB said in plain language that they would buy sovereign debt, if necessary. Bears, back to the cave. And I wonder, if some media is not paid by bears. Just my speculation, I have no evidence. If I had, I'd share it with FCC.

    Now, it appears, sovereign debt is the only thing which can scare this market. Good. I'm bullish since mid-January and I'm going to continue increasing my long equity portfolio.

    Trades this week:

    Added to DSW Shoe Warehouse (NYSE:DSW) position on Tuesday (bought the weakness).

    Added to ARM Holding (NASDAQ:ARMH) position on Tuesday (essentially bought back for 27.35 shares sold earlier for 29.10).

    Sold part of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) position today into strength. A little bit more about Google. I don't like today's earnings report. I don't like the idea of splitting stock into voting and non-voting (it's just financial engineering, has nothing to do with company's business). I don't like the fact that per-click revenue is down second quarter in a row. I need to read more about this earnings report before making a decision, but it looks like I'm going to reduce my position more.

    Disclosure: I am long DSW, ARMH, GOOG.

    Additional disclosure: Positions can change any time.

    Stocks: DSW, ARMH, GOOG
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Comments (3)
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  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4208) | Send Message
    Nice view of the world. Agree on your Trichet statement. You are missing AAPL and BIDU in your holdings. BIDU is probably better than GOOG, I own both but more BIDU.


    What is your take on YNDX? I assume you are Russian and might judge it better than me.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Alex Filonov
    , contributor
    Comments (1412) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Sorry for a late answer, I was on vacation. I'm staying away from Russian stocks. There is no real property rights in Russia, plain and simple. The bigger the company, the bigger the treat of forced takeover by government or mafia (which can't be easily separated).
    23 Apr 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4208) | Send Message
    Thank you Alex. Such information is worth Gold!
    23 Apr 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
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