Seeking Alpha

Alex Filonov's  Instablog

Alex Filonov
Send Message
I was born in 1956 in USSR. After graduation from college in 1979 I worked full-time as an IT specialist. Until 1990 I worked for different companies in the Soviet military industrial complex. I created a small software business in 1991, which failed in 1993. I worked for Oracle Corp in 1995 in... More
My blog:
Muddling Investor
  • Why People Make Idiotic Economic Forecasts? Because They Don't Invest 0 comments
    Aug 22, 2012 11:43 AM

    These two pieces about Niall Ferguson have been brought to my attention by Barry Ritholtz:

    Both show that Niall was completely, utterly wrong in his economic predictions. As far back as since 2004, if not much earlier. What can I say? Anybody can make forecasts in sport and economics not paying any penalty. In sport, it's an absolute truth. In economics, not so absolute. If you don't invest/manage your own money, you can say anything you want. But let's see what would happen if Niall followed his own advice:

    2004: Niall thinks China is going to stop buying US debt. Logical conclusion: short Treasuries. Result: huge loss of capital.

    2009: Niall predicts collapse of US Treasuries market. Logical conclusion: short Treasuries. Result: huge loss of capital.

    2011: Niall predicts double-digit inflation for 2010s. Logical conclusion: short Treasuries, corporate bonds and stocks, buy gold. If anybody acted this way, s/he should be bankrupt by now.

    My advice to Niall and anybody else making economic forecasts: put your money where your mouth is. And we'll see how it works.

    Themes: Market Outlook
Back To Alex Filonov's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • Sold some $FB Mar 15 $80 covered calls and Mar15 $72.50 puts
    Jan 29, 2015
  • CLosed $LRLCY. Will buy back at lower level
    Jan 21, 2015
  • Added to $SAN
    Jan 7, 2015
More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.