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I'm an individual investor and trader. I'm currently retired. My professional work experience has been in commercial real estate, working for a major supermarket company and for an urban development corporation. Bear_Mkt is my pseudonym -- bear seems to be my usual investing view. Don't take... More
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Dollar Crisis
  • Contagion: no one is immune from fear --  0 comments
    Sep 23, 2011 1:05 AM | about stocks: AZN, SNY, GSK, NVS, JNJ, HENKY, TWX, RBGPY

    No better way to get your mind off losing your shirt in the stock market than going to see a movie about a virus pandemic that wipes out a goodly portion of the world's population, including Gwneyth Paltrow in the first 5 minutes of digital celluloid. (Minute 5.01 - Can  I get my money back?).

    Scientists race to find the problem and then a cure as civilized society begins to fray and collapse. The movie is fiction, but is shot in a documentary style.  There are echoes of real events like the SARs virus, the London riots and the post-Katrina chaos.

    "Contagion" is chock full of appealing but cliched stock characters: cheating blonde wives; devoted husbands; cute children; devoted public health doctors; scheming wiki-leaks-type bloggers; officious Homeland security officers; unscrupulous hedge fund operators; unruly rioters; and behind the scenes, powerful Congressmen ready to call a public hearing when anyone stumbles.  

    I'd give "Contagion" about a B-/C grade as a movie, about where I'd put the original "Wall Street" movie. But like "Wall Street", I think I'll remember the movie for a long time for its themes andbroad brush characters. 

    In the short run, I'll think twice before I eat Chinese. I'll be  washing my hands regularly, maybe with an anti-bacterial soap. I'll be getting my flu shot early. And if my Congressman wants to disband the Center for Disease Control, I'll demand that he give up his taxpayer-paid health plan.

    Investment spin: "Contagion" is a Time-Warner production. It earned about $14 million last week for a total take of $44 million.

    My check of the local supermarket's  shelves found anti-bacterial soaps branded by Dial, Purell and Lysol. (For what its worth, a 2006 Emory University study showed that washing with water worked better than the chemicals.)

    I checked the Center for Disease Control's list of approved flu vaccines for this year. Their manufacturers are listed below.  You can run the metrics on them.

    Just my opinion.


    TimeWarner -TWX
    Price= $28.91
    Yield, 3%
    PE, ttm = 12.46
    Price / book = 0.99
    Return on Equity = 7.94%

    Health care products - two of these are foreign with multiple Pink Sheet Listings. You'll need to check 'em out.

    Lysol hand soap
    Reckitt-Benckiser Group ---  RBGPY.PK - ADR
    Price = $9.69
    Yield = 3.6%
    PE, ttm = ~14
    Price / book = 4.3
    Return on Equity = 32%

    Dial Antibacterial Soap
    Henkell AG  -- HENKY.PK
    Price = $41.56
    Yield = 1.7%
    PE, ttm = 10.65
    Price book = 1.78
    Return on Equity = 16.2%

    Purell - Private to PFE to JNJ to Private
    Johnson & Johnson --- JNJ
    Price = $61.92
    PE = 14.8
    Price book = 2.78
    Return on Equity = 20.2%


    Approved flu vaccine makers, 2011
    Novartis - NVS
    Sanofi- SNY
    GlaxoSmithKline - GSK
    CSL Biotherapies  - CSL Limited - CSL on the ASX
    MedImmune - AstraZeneca - AZN

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