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I'm an individual investor and trader. I'm currently retired. My professional work experience has been in commercial real estate, working for a major supermarket company and for an urban development corporation. Bear_Mkt is my pseudonym -- bear seems to be my usual investing view. Don't take... More
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Dollar Crisis
  • The Bull Market Is Here - Load Up On Stocks - Before Its Too Late! 0 comments
    Feb 8, 2012 11:28 PM

    Almost a full day today, I was treated to non-stop bullishness on Bloomberg Radio. Opening up in the morning with commentary recycled every 10 minutes about how almost every bourse world-wide is nearly in bull territory, up 20%, from the lows of -- was it just October of last year.

    Followed by the head of BlackRock, a bond guy yet, telling everybody the only way to go was 100% stocks. Followed in the afternoon by a respected chartist, Louise Yamada, reputed to read every chart in the world. Yamada, usually bearish, was sounding very bullish. Noises are even emanating from Roubini's camp.

    Not only that but we have --

    -- The return of the dot-com bubble in which Facebook will be the next Apple or is it the next MySpace, dull thud. A truly long term investment, Facebook is on track to have 3 or 4 times the number of users that the world has people.

    -- The reappearance of speculation in the form of IPO stocks like debt-laden Caesar's, up 71% in a day. They floated only 1.4% of the shares. Shares traded were 600% of - 6 times - the offering. Apparently under rules of the game hedge fund operators and other investors were allowed to unload shares. Whether they did so is not clear. Caveat emptor

    -- Caesar's is a double-bubble, involving the other C-word, China. Sorry, I should call it by its official Wall Street name "Invest in Booming China." CZR's not operating in China (one casino on the way), but it might build 24 casinos. So some of CZR's IPO pop might be on the China hope. Sounds like the dot-com bubble.

    -- Locally, I notice a few testimonials on the message boards about how untold riches have been earned in the market. Likely to pull in those late to the party who look forlornly at 0% on their CD's and gas at $3.50.

    -- The mysterious disappearance (and perhaps abduction and killing) of an old friend from last year, volatility. Remember those weeks of up 3%, down 4%, up 3%, etc. All gone. Poof. It's just up a steady 0.5% a day every day, right?

    -- A market that ignores bad news. Who needs Greece when Costco sells $8.99 platters of baklava. And heck, who needs jobs or senior citizens when the nouveau riche 30-year-olds are snapping up the $60,000 LandRovers? (Another Bloomberg tid-bit)

    -- A Fed that's guaranteed low rates as far as the eye can see. Don't fight the Fed. They engineered the dot-com and the housing bubbles and haven't lost their touch.

    In short we have a very happy world. No one's been tossed to the lions lately.

    My spin: No charts, no fundamentals. No nothin', know nothin'. Just a queasy feeling in my stomach that the rally's gone too far too fast and will pause.

    And Caesar? Just remember what the gladiators said to Caesar in the Coliseum: "Hail, Caesar. Those who are about to die salute you." The lions haven't lost their appetite. Invest accordingly.

    Just my opinion.

    ==========

    Fink: Investors Should Be 100% in Equities

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/blackrock-s-fink-says-investors-should-be-100-in-equities-take-more-risk.html

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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