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Stock Tips From The San Francisco Money Show.

Aug. 26, 2014 4:58 PM ETSWKS, GMCR, HLF, AAPL, TTWO1 Comment
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I just came back from the Money Show which ended last Saturday. It was a convention held at San Francisco Hilton Union Square.

Among the highlights of my trip, I got a golf ball signed by Mr. Steve Forbes along with new his book on monetary policy, titled "Money" which he also autographed. Mr. Forbes was adamant about pegging US dollar to the gold in his book. During his keynote speech, he believes the Feds (central banks) for the most part, despite their good intention, did not help grow the economy but instead hindered it. As for me, I'm just glad that I can show off my "Forbes" golf balls to my golf buddies.

I've attended several seminars presented by acclaimed traders and hedge fund managers. Here is a summary of the "stock tips" that I picked up.

SWKS (long) They are bullish on this stock based on technical.

GMCR (long via 130-150 call spread). Despite it being up, option actions after the earning release indicate room for additional up moves and the option prices indicates that market is expecting 8% move in the next 30 days. So an OTM call above 145 will likely expire worthless but ATM calls will do well. My take on this trade is that since GMCR is already >135, a better trade is to long the Sep 135-145 call spread.

HLF (short) Either Ackerman or "someone" doubled down on his bet that HLF is a pyramid scheme on Friday via Jan 50 puts. I checked and indeed there are unusual buying volume and OI is doubled.

AAPL (long) up trend, and lots of people in the audience own or is bullish about it. No less than 5 speakers had to mention Apple in one form or another, as if it is a popularity contest. When pressed by the audience, the presenter from IBD said that it is on an uptrend and therefore bullish, period.

TTWO (long) They are bullish on this stock based on technical. My personal opinion is that they will do well going into Christmas gift-giving season.

TSLA (long) But wait until pullback to support before buying.

JAZZ (short) They are bearish based on technical.

CAT (short) but wait until it reaches resistance)

GOOG (long) based on the technical, it's ready to resume uptrend

TJX (IV trade) this stock has high historic volatility, but currently has low implied volatility. It recently had a good earning announcement which explains the IV collapse. So the speaker is looking at a calendar spread (ie. Sep-Dec ATM calendar spread)

Emerging market (long) It took a hit even though rest of the world's market is up.

Speakers are mostly bearish on Russian and utilities, As for US market, the consensus is that we have a bullish environment currently, and even a "tired bull market is still a bull market".

Several speakers talked about risk management and trade size, but to sum it up, my three take-away are:
1) it's not how many times you got your predictions right, but how little money you lost when you are wrong.
2) never let emotion get in the way. If you are emotional, then getting out of the position will help clear your head for a better subsequent trade.
3) this is counter-intuitive, but when placing a trade in a fast-moving market, instead of a "market" order, place a "limit" order above the highest bid instead (say, the quote is 101/101.5 and you want to ensure execution, then place a buy order at 101.6 so that you get in the front of the line. You'll still get a market order price of 10.5 but your trade gets executed first, before the market moves up against you)

I made trades based on these info, so..... right now I have:

SWKS short 8/29 55 puts (bullish bet that it will close at 55 or higher this week, with the intention of buying the stock if necessary)
GMCR long Sep 135-145 call spread (bullish bet and fortunately, it's up again today. Their 2.0 coffee makers will be a hit this Christmas)
HLF long Jan 50 put (bearish bet, same price as what Mr. Ackerman paid on Friday. I have no opinion on the legality of Herbalife's MLM pyramid scheme, but just the manic debate around it is enough for me to be bearish )
TTWO long 12/20 $22 call (bullish bet on the Christmas season now)
AAPL short 100 8/29 put, (bullish bet that it won't fall below 100 this week. 100 is a new psychological support)
and AAPL long 90 & 95 Jan call LEAPS (which I already have before this conference)

Except for HLF, my trades have a theme, which is to bet on companies that will benefit from the Christmas gift-giving season in December (iPhones, video games, coffee makers)

After I close out some of these swing trades, I plan to get SCHE and SPY as a longer term investment, and add some bonds to balance it out. I will wait for a good entry point on TSLA, JAZZ, GOOG and CAT. I also plan to keep my AAPL LEAPS for a while and most likely exercise it in January if I haven't sold or roll it forward by then.

Analyst's Disclosure: The author is long SWKS, GMCR, AAPL, TTWO.

The author is short HLF via put options, and long SWKS, GMCR, AAPL and TTWO via options.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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