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  • Axion Power Concentrator 144: Aug. 24, 2012: Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012 222 comments
    Aug 24, 2012 8:41 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012

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    IMPORTANT UPDATE:

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    I don't normally send updates mid-week but the new volume graph is important because the 10-day average broke 600,000 yesterday and we're within a day or two of a break-through where the 50-day will penetrate up through the 200-day. There's been a fairly consistent volume resistance in the 500,000 share range for a couple years and the 600,000 figure is a clear penetration. We've only had three other instances where the 50-day penetrated up through the 200-day. One was a tiny blip in August of last year that didn't last long, but the other two were large and sustained volume surges.

    (updated through Thursday close Aug. 23rd)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through Friday close Aug. 17th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Graph:

    (updated Aug. 21st)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (222)
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  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    GOLD!
    24 Aug 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    tarnished silver.

     

    P.S. Check your e-mail APH. I sent a new volume graph this morning that's important.
    24 Aug 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    We had a great example of irresponsible PR yesterday when CBAK announced that they'd "received a sample order" for three battery packs from FAW-Volkswagen to "power its electric cars and to test the performance and reliability of the battery units." The stock went from a previous close of $.35 to a high of $.70 before closing at $.55.

     

    I'd like to see a more proactive approach from Axion, but announcing the sale of testing samples is crazy.
    24 Aug 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, the day traders love it, though.
    24 Aug 2012, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I saw that late yesterday and was very surprised at the move in CBAK on such an announcement. Heck, their last quarterly report was directionally consistent with at least 2 years of prior reports. They are going off a cliff. And after their last report their CFO resigned which is a pretty standard event for them. I can't see why anyone would touch CBAK at this time short of participating in a restructuring of some form.
    24 Aug 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    This morning I sent the Axion Power Host a new Volume chart along with the following note:

     

    "I don't normally send updates mid-week but the new volume graph is important because the 10-day average broke 600,000 yesterday and we're within a day or two of a break-through where the 50-day will penetrate up through the 200-day.

     

    There's been a fairly consistent volume resistance in the 500,000 share range for a couple years and the 600,000 figure is a clear penetration.

     

    We've only had three other instances where the 50-day penetrated up through the 200-day. One was a tiny blip in August of last year that didn't last long, but the other two were large and sustained volume surges."

     

    You can download a copy of the chart here:

     

    http://bit.ly/PLVaS5
    24 Aug 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yup, you caught me sleeping on the job. I don't check the APH email enough.

     

    I have updated the graphs and commentary that JP sent this morning into the header. Pretty important stuff.
    24 Aug 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Today will:
    1. volume be strong and price pushes beyond .35?
    2. volume be strong and price gets capped again at .35 by an immovable seller? (hit iindelco's brick wall)
    3. volume be weak and price retreats to .30?
    4. volume is so-so and we take a breather at near same price. (paint drying)?

     

    I'm betting a cup of coffee (you have to collect in Cascais, Portugal before Sept 1, 2012 - offer good for only one expresso.) on the first option, and then as HTL suggests, possibly a breather. All up to volume. Just my SWAG.
    24 Aug 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Metro: Well, FANC is lined up at $0.34 with the "standard" 5K presented ask and NITE is right behind with the same at $0.35. TEJS and STXG ditto at $0.37.

     

    So I do believe that the $0.35/$0.37 range I thought would offer a pause is already being suggested as they folks start building the next "wall".

     

    One positive is UBSS is at $0.3399 x 20K. Why positive? Because it's not the "standard" block, suggesting that there really is only 20K offered currently. That could get wiped in a single trade easily.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Aug 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1284) | Send Message
     
    getting through 500k volume average is a big deal. i expect volume to remain high through year end.

     

    if the price gets to .305 i am buying. i wonder how many others here are buyers? everyone that felt underweight. i don't feel that way but a move up on volume that coincides with a volume average break out upwards is the closest thing i've seen to JP inflection point.
    24 Aug 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3648) | Send Message
     
    Well we haven't close above 35 cents since May and we haven't closed above 45 since early in 2012. Thus the next nickels will be harder to come by then our run from .29.
    24 Aug 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu,
    I always feel underweight compared to most on this board, but that's just because most here can buy in a day what I've managed to collect over the last 2 years! But my % of my total investments is in a reasonable zone, so I'll wait till the end of the year, see where I am with taxes and see what the price is then. As they say here in NC..."all, you all", will have to do the heavy lifting buying for me until then. :-)
    24 Aug 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    8/23/2012: EOD stuff, partly copied from my instablog.
    # Trds: 116, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 74000, Vol 975685, AvTrSz: 8411
    Min. Pr: 0.3012, Max Pr: 0.3380, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3172,
    # Buys, Shares: 92 614085, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3167
    # Sells, Shares: 22 331600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3165
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 30000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3350
    Buy:Sell 1.85:1 (62.9% “buys”), DlyShts 454735 (46.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 137.13%

     

    Two pre-market 25K trades, one at $0.305 and the other at $0.307, aren’t included in the FINRA data. Adding them to total volume would move it to 975,685 and short percentage from 46.96% to 46.6%, matching my calculated value. If, however, we also add those to the short sales the percentage moves to 51.7%.

     

    I was glad to see stuff, other than volume, start trending towards more normal values today. Specifically, I was concerned that short sales percentage would remain elevated to an extreme and average trade size would remain at a level suggestive of only very cautious smaller retail investors. I also had concern that my new “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” might range in outrageous territory.

     

    On the short sales front it was concerning because I've begun to believe that the extreme choppiness in that value is a result of the mechanical aspects of the process combined with market-maker decisions and actions. With the short sales starting to return to normal, my hypothesis may still be viable. More on that some day in the future.

     

    Other than that, not much to say other than the volume, price and buy:sell, trade size average continue to show good positive sentiment.

     

    I snipped my new short/sells ratio since it may not yet have value. It's available in my experimental instablog.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Aug 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    I did not as expected get all 100,000 pcs at 0.30 beginning of this week.
    So I just bought the remaining 69,800 pcs.

     

    As someone mensioned yesterday, poor those who have a job in " the real world" to tend to while the stockprice goes bananas.That's me :-(
    24 Aug 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Excellent, Poul!

     

    Did anyone else notice the execution of his purchase at 34? Per my Level II feed, there were a couple of offers below 34 at the time, and they were still there after his purchase. How is it that at least some of his purchase wasn't made at <34? Perhaps because it was All Or None?
    24 Aug 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    MrI: re how come no <=$0.34

     

    My broker has told me that OTC is different than the major exchanges. And I know from personal experience it depends on how aggressive your market-maker is. Will he place orders on the NBBO system or wait and try and get it done- in-house (to garner more fees?). Will they aggressively scour the boards to find the best price, etc.

     

    ETrade publishes stats that purport to show how much better they do at price improvement, speed of execution, and other metrics as compared to average.

     

    They way they've been behaving recently, I expect to see a drop.

     

    My last purchase of AXPW you might recall I reported seeing ~87K(?) go buy my price while my last 6K(?) sat there. It showed me that ETrade market-maker was busy taking care of more important things than my order.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Aug 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor
    Thank you very much for noticing that. I got the idea that something like that was going on by keeping an eye on otcmarkets.com
    I am a customer in a "normal" Danish bank, that transfers the order by phone I think to a US bank. So I cannot follow the order or anything, only wait for info next day about what happened.
    Also I can only specify limit orders in whole cents. So today I raised the limit to 34 cents.
    I know my bank switched to using a new US bank as the old one might go bankrupt. The old one is the ones that lost 400 mill US in 30 minutes.
    I will pass your comments to my bank and ask if they think they did a good job :-)
    24 Aug 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Poul, just thought it might be something to look into. Good luck.

     

    Maybe the key is the whole cent increment limitation. Perhaps therefore either 33 or 34. Would be too bad if you paid any more than you had to.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    NITE lifted its offer to 34 from 33. Only ARCA left at 33. Feels like a smaller version of yesterday.

     

    Update: ARCA was soon gone, too. Completely off Level II as far as I can tell.
    24 Aug 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    For you gearheads, a LCV2012 Low Carbon Vehicle show coming up and references to Controlled Power and CO2 reductions:

     

    http://bit.ly/Nq9tYt

     

    Event: http://bit.ly/Nq9TOH

     

    Event Twitter: http://bit.ly/O97J8p

     

    Related: http://bit.ly/Nq9Sub
    24 Aug 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    For the folks expecting this volume to continue, "Hold your water"!

     

    Wait for a trend, not a "blip".

     

    This will abate. We need to see averages developing IMO.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    24 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'm trying.

     

    http://bit.ly/O9f4EO
    24 Aug 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Beacon Power, FERC 755 update ... with a little Paul Ryan slam thrown in. Private Equity wins again. I'm sure there are some facts in here somewhere :-)

     

    http://bit.ly/ObWEBQ

     

    http://bit.ly/ObWEBU
    24 Aug 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    I'm not up to speed on FERC 755. I (and Axionistas generally, I'd guess) could use an expert's debriefing, regarding it's effect on Axion.

     

    I'm hearing various dates and entities:
    --who sets the new, higher rate(s) that Axion will receive?
    --when will those new rates go into effect? (including legal challenges, if any)
    --exactly what event(s) are PC cutomers-in-waiting waiting for?
    --how do the various entities (FERC, PJM, state public utility commissions, other?) interact, regarding effects on Axion?

     

    I think I know some of the answers, but definitely don't have a thorough understanding.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Who do you think I am Grasshopper, Quicken Loans? :-)

     

    http://bit.ly/NqwvyA

     

    You can start here: http://1.usa.gov/NqwvyD

     

    Perhaps we can create some type of Google Shared Document that pulls some of this together
    24 Aug 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    It all seems so simple and so straightforward, except for all those investors who lost everything when the company went BK. I noticed they didn't really mention them when they were talking about how wonderful it was that the private equity company bought what was left.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    ha! There's been a shortage of expert posts about FERC 755/demand response, so I was hoping someone, Axionistas or lurker, would be gracious enough to fill that role. Another one of those small mkts Axion is trying to help. Just $billions. Could start seeing orders starting next month, too, so it's also one of those little timing things. Probably best to just willingly ignore it all. 8^O

     

    Ok, back to OT discussions!
    24 Aug 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "I'm hearing various dates and entities:
    --who sets the new, higher rate(s) that Axion will receive?"
    --when will those new rates go into effect? (including legal challenges, if any)
    --exactly what event(s) are PC cutomers-in-waiting waiting for?
    --how do the various entities (FERC, PJM, state public utility commissions, other?) interact, regarding effects on Axion?"

     

    :-) I'm confident that others are far more expert than me. My understanding of FERC 755 is rather skimpy, but FWIW it appears to me that --

     

    :-) Adam Smith's invisible hand will set prices for provision and/or storage of power provided "participating fingers" have been recognized by the ISO's as providers and eligible to bid for supply of power" and/or "temporary storage of excess power." FERC Order 755 reduced the capacity standard for participation from something much larger to 100kW.

     

    The "new rates" will go into effect at different times in different parts of the company with PJM Grid Operator implementing its auction system in late September 2012, NYISO in early October 2012 and others at later times.

     

    The new FERC compensation rules enable smaller scale, quicker responding power storage and power generation providers to participate in grid power markets and enable an auction system to pick winning and losing bidders on fast response solicitation actions from the ISOs/regional grid operators. With FERC 755 in force, owners of PowerCubes and Beacon Power flywheel system type devices have the opportunity to participate in a new market for short-term, quick response grid power stabilization services and to be compensated at prices that support investment in the needed capital equipment.
    24 Aug 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, D-inv!

     

    TG mentioned, "at least 150%" on the last conf call. Was he talking about the expected increase from current rates for power sold to the grid?

     

    So, with what TG said on the last CC, reasonable biz logic, and assuming prospective customers otherwise like the PC, is the big reason behind-the-meter prospective PC customers are waiting to place orders is that they first want to be able to better estimate what their revenue will be from the times that they sell power to the grid (in addition to the non-revenue reasons to buy one, such as power smoothing and backup, etc.)? If yes, then we MAY see some orders beginning in when? October? Or is that not long enough after the new rates start to allow any PC buyer the confidence that the revenue numbers they're seeing are solid? Possible sales this year hasn't been talked about much as a near-term potential catalyst for the stock...seems to me it's been some fuzzy, way-out there timeframe.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, makes sense that the bean counters would want some real numbers.

     

    Of course those numbers are subject to change if the class of "Energy Storage Systems" really takes off ... which would be a nice "problem" for us to have!

     

    Suppy and Demand ... it's the law!
    24 Aug 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1132) | Send Message
     
    Boy does that article gloss over a bunch of Beacon's troubles.

     

    Yes, Solyndra and Paul Ryan's comments about failed businesses plan didn't help.

     

    Yes, implementation of FERC 755 earlier would have helped but it still would not have saved equity.

     

    An outsiders view of why they failed. The CEO, Bill Capp overpromised for years. It was the opposite of Axion, they continually overpromised and underdelivered.

     

    I watched the company for two years until they went into BK and then bought some when they went into bankruptcy when they hired a certain entity to help value and sell the company. I got out with a small (10%) loss after the auction.

     

    Here are a list of their problems. They located their first plan in the wrong ISO. What I mean by that is they built in a ISO that didn't pay as well as PJM for on-demand power, but their application used the PJM and CA ISOs as proof of the business plan to the gov't. The year before the ISO came out they would put out future quarterly earnings, revenues, etc and they never would hit 1/2 of the revenues and their expenses were always increasing.

     

    Then when they started to power up Stevenstown plant they had two flywheel failures in months which either meant 1)poor quality control - these things are supposed to last 20-30 years with minimal maintenance or 2)design problems. The fact that they didn't think these were important to tell the investment community until each quarterly call got them skewered by analysts, rightfully so. (Some investors knew as you could see the stock move in retrospect, so insider trading and lack of respect to market participants).

     

    During the BK process I ended up talking to some of the guys selling the assets and one hedge fund who looked at investing. The business plan could work if you got rid of Sr. Mgmt, but before filing BK, Sr Mgmt wanted cheap free cash and full control. No one was going to do that based on how poor mgmt had been before.

     

    They also didn't diversify. They had a $9M grant in PA waiting for them plus $20M grant from PA to build it, instead they focused on a $40M plant funded via loan. A utiltiy in WY had a standing order for 3 flywheels for 3 years that were never delivered even though they were an early adopter and proponent. BTW, the company who agreed to help market/sell the business in BK went nuts after agreeing to it as they were lied to by the CEO from a financial side when they first got involved.

     

    Failure of Beacon - poor management and putting all their eggs in one basket.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... "Supply and Demand ... it's the law!" Except when it's not (and that is fairly often these days)
    24 Aug 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "Possible sales this year hasn't been talked about much as a near-term potential catalyst for the stock...seems to be it's been some fuzzy, way-out there timeframe."

     

    "Fuzzy, way-out there timeframe" is apt, though I for one (and I'm sure there are more than a few others) fully expect ramping PbC sales to emerge THIS year. FERC 755 is important, no doubt, but it has no bearing on NSC decisions, many alt-energy projects or possible auto OEM sales.

     

    You raise a good point re-record of revenues realized from grid stabilization services. There may be a few industrial/institutional takers of PowerCubes but, if so, I suspect they will be organizations which value continuous stable, reliable power or reliable backup power without large maintenance and operation costs and look on possible grid stabilization revenues as icing on the cake or pure gravy. To me, PowerCube sales to Wind/Solar Farm operators to enable time shifting of power sales to premium rate periods vs. "when generated" and to NSC are the most prospective for PbC sales this year. Another candidate is another Navy "Net Zero Energy Building" or similar military project aimed at promoting greater use of renewable energy and/or capacity to operate completely independently of grid power.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I once read during the early years of Beacon research (when I was trading many 1000s of shares of BCON prit near every day), and I'm not sure this is true, but the story goes that one of those flywheels was whipping around with such force that after it wobbled right off what ever stantion, container was anchoring it, the flywheel blasted right through the facility concrete wall, then rolled down the street a hundred yards, went right through another building, and then came to rest halfway through cinderblock wall.

     

    Also read more recently that one of the flywheels darn near vaporized?

     

    When a flywheel is spinning, it must be intense to see, hear, feel up close. I'd much rather stand within a PowerCube.

     

    25 Aug 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "TG mentioned, "at least 150%" on the last conf call. Was he talking about the expected increase from current rates for power sold to the grid?"

     

    My thought is that TG was likely referencing rates currently paid to power providers for unscheduled short-term increases/decreases in power supplied in response to load variations. IMS, earlier APC commentary on the topic suggested power provider responses to grid operator requests/directives 1) typically have taken 3 - 4 minutes and 2) that the longer it takes to respond to power imbalances the greater the adjustment in power required. If those elements are valid, then it is reasonable to project payment of a premium over current flexible provider rates when response times are reduced to milliseconds vice minutes.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Think I posted some on this before.

     

    "Proven durability does not mean that high-performance flywheels pose no risk to operators,however. Last August, a German engineer was killed and two others were injured in an accident during a spin test of a composite flywheel that was designed to fail. The fatal mishap occurred during evaluations being conducted for the German automaker."

     

    http://bit.ly/T7guAb
    25 Aug 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    You know, I just began to see something in this that I had not previously considered. A paradigm shift, but not the one we would normally recognize - getting to participate in the electrical efficiency markets.

     

    Looking at it from the old perspective of centralized capital-intensive generation and grid capacity augmentation, I see the *real* paradigm shift as something else.

     

    De-centralized decision-making on capital investment for "virtual" generation and grid upgrade equivalency. This, ISTM, brings into play the invisible hand of thousands (millions?) of individual decisions about capital investment into facilities that both enhance the decision-makers' facilities in some way (reliability, capacity, quality of power, ...), but also adds in a faster ROI via the remuneration possible via the electricity market.

     

    ISTM, this is *huge*, possibly even beyond what's been suggested by John's analysis and citing of Lux, Pike, et al.

     

    This implies that there *may* be potential for far more than we've considered.

     

    Every potential generation and efficiency scheme that might be conceivably applied in this new market has new "market forces" applied in determination of it's success or failure, effectively (over extend time) taking the "picking winners and losers" government out of the equation.

     

    Acquiring lists of industries and businesses that have profiles that:
    - are large energy consumers or
    - benefit substantially from greater reliability of supply (geographic and provider factors in play?) or
    - need substantial improvement in power quality, ...

     

    And (the hard part) combining them with lists of solutions that seem most attractive to those types of entities (may have factors such as geography, providers, mission criticality, ...) may yield some investable themes.

     

    In this scenario, fuel cells, micro-turbines, storage, solar, ... may all have a place and the trick will be which will benefit quickly from this change in the decision-making process. John's "cheap beats cool" would be a big beneficiary in this scenario.

     

    I can't offer anything ATM, but as the thought crossed my mind I recalled watching a video about a private residence in Australia that installed a ceramic fuel cell and knew exactly what his savings were, payback time, how much could be garnered by selling the excess back to the grid, ...

     

    As John has said many times, there's no silver bullet. There's a lot of buckshot targets out there though if my assessment of the paradigm shift in capital allocation decision-making is correct.

     

    I might be late in realizing this, but I don't recall seeing the recognition of this expressed elsewhere.

     

    I do recall seeing some annual numbers that estimated losses to business in the U.S. from power failures. It was large. If it's in the ballpark and businesses can mitigate that loss with a very attractive ROI, the growth may be even faster or larger than what the sources John has cited predict.

     

    All that is needed, ISTM, is a change in the political environment such that business can make investment decisions with some confidence that they know the rules that will be in play for an extended period.

     

    With the current uncertainty, I don't see a lot of reason for business to be making such decisions - they're likely better off staying in a holding pattern for now.

     

    That could adversely affect AXPW along with many of the alt-energy players. While we currently have (predominately) *only* government driving these things, rather than the "invisible hand", it's going to be a tough slog.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2664) | Send Message
     
    Maya, from an engineering standpoint, if you can feel or hear anything when the flywheel is spinning at typical speed you need to run away! They should by balanced and running in a vacuum. No sound and no vibration.

     

    The idea of a "designed to fail" flywheel is a good one. In a "maximum failure" it should disintegrate and leave no pieces much above dust particle size, just for the reason you mentioned about flying pieces causing damage. Small pieces are much easier to contain in the outer housing of the flywheel system if there is a failure.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2664) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Big government and its attached twin, big regulation, isn't going to like your ideas at all. Today there is quite a bit of experimentation with "micro and mini grid" ideas that are seen a part of the "green energy" group.

     

    But I suspect that if the concepts try to "graduate" to a larger scale where they might have some substantial impact on the power distribution system, we will start to see bureaucratic back pressure. Regulators will have a harder time controlling micro-grid islands and they REALLY won't like the idea of a system of generation-consumption islands that sell power back and forth via private contract.

     

    My hope is that city ( county?) level governments will have the political clout to make their metropolitan areas into "power islands" that are tied less and less tightly to the national grid. If it protects them from the increasing degradation of the grid, they should fight for the control.

     

    And that is where the small scale generation and storage business will flourish. We can hope!
    25 Aug 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Tricky.

     

    Could turn into the haves and have-nots, and at the very least become VERY political. Economies of scale apply I presume, but what happens when you (eventually?) take away significant parts on the demand side?

     

    Think education ... rich suburbs much better than inner city. Many factors of course, but money can't be denied as a factor in quality, student, success and student opportunity.

     

    Complicated subject! Economic arguments should win, but finding the true costs (and agreeing on them) is the really hard part. What's the cost of poor/lower income people having their electricity costs go up significantly? (which of course is pure speculation on my part)

     

    Or costs (say in deaths) of the "people" Grid that gets even more unstable as temperature extremes become more and more common?

     

    Will there be cycles? HTL, in an example you can relate to as a computer jock .... when we started Time Sharing was Cool and all that was available. Then Mainframes. Then Minicomputers. Then Desktop amazing power workstations. Cell phone amazing power ... but now with "clouds" providing software as a service and running on .... the equivalent of mainframes, being on supercomputers or networked massive computing power or ... "time sharing!"
    25 Aug 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Fret not. Even if the grid changes and fractures significantly from what it is today, and it will, government agencies will regulate to keep themselves relevant and to provide an adjusted but remaining social safety net. Government agencies do not go away base on their mission statement. They adapt, needed or not. The US Postal Service is a good in your face example.

     

    One article of thousands.

     

    Can a “Value of Solar Tariff” Replace Net Energy Metering?

     

    http://bit.ly/NRy0ar
    25 Aug 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: "Will there be cycles?"

     

    I think so. I'm guessing that it's a result of human nature being frequently unable to make swings to "median" points without first exploring the "extremes".

     

    I think the current buzz about the "cloud" will prove a good example. What will happen here is that both the vulnerabilities of the internet and the costs that will be, effectively, centralized will finally be inherited by the users and also be shown to be a less than optimal way of doing things.

     

    I think a balance that maintains independence of functions and resources of certain types (especially "mission critical" ones) via the distributed processing (a bastardization of it's usual meaning), as we currently enjoy it, combined with the backup capability and wide access to non-critical elements (especially stuff such as public data and maybe non-critical processing) will be the ultimate configuration.

     

    ISTM this remains a viable scenario as long as cost/performance for individual resources continue to improve (ironically due to economies of scale, in part) while deteriorating economics that always (eventually) accompany increasing "centralization" inevitably come into play. IMO, especially worth mentioning is the transference of the internet vulnerabilities to the end user with increasing *reliance* on "cloud" facilities and loss of freedom through reduced localized resources if "balance" is not maintained in placement of resources and capabilities.

     

    Of course, the progression of mainframe, mini, ... was in large part technologically enabled. But it's adoption, if my experience is indicative, was primarily due to "freedom".

     

    Freedom from the dictates of the people that managed the mainframes, freedom to use computing power when, where and how needed to meet small organizational goals without having to get software developed, debugged, installed and then scheduled on the centralized resources, ...

     

    In support of this scenario, I offer anecdotal evidence.

     

    I've operated in all the environments. In '78, as part of a large development organization I got introduced to UNIX on Dec's PDP 11/70. My development organization was a large COBOL mainframe oriented group that served nationwide supply and service functions for a company with about 110K employees nationwide.

     

    Being aggressive, I learned a lot about this "new environment" and introduced it to our development organization. By 1984 I had the first PC in the company with UNIX and a COBOL compiler feeding through UNIX-based minis to the mainframe for final compilation and distribution to the regional data centers. I introduced this to the rest of the organization a well.

     

    The relevance is that this was done to make our operations both more efficient, in terms of time, responsiveness and cost, and to free ourselves from the constraints of mainframe-only operations that made our jobs more difficult.

     

    I believe these same sort of driving factors are inherent across all sorts and sizes of business organizations.

     

    And I think as it was with this computing scenario, it is now with (distributed) energy. Technology is making things possible which were not possible before. The "centralized" energy structures have inefficiencies as well as losses of "freedom" associated with them. The new capabilities offer to return some of this "freedom" and better efficiencies in cost and flexibility and will pressure the old configurations to adapt or die.

     

    We may swing too far one direction or the other, but will eventually find the right balance.

     

    "Resistance is futile".

     

    The markets will eventually triumph and lead to the right "balance".

     

    Sorry for getting so long-winded (you expected less? :-))

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Meh, I miss numbering my punch cards and throwing them into the shared services in basket.

     

    One of my first jobs was designing and implementing a test stand for IBM mainframe cooling pumps. :)

     

    If you started out in this area you'll never want to give up having peripheral control of some level of your computing power. Period.
    25 Aug 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    SHB: The large grid operators might (eventually) be allies in this case. Conflicting pressures, in the form of regulators mandating "green" percentages of generation capacity while at the same time constraining ROI through rate setting oriented towards maintaining low-cost for consumers, might make these "micro-grids" and all that come with them attractive. Add in the reliability issues (which now get measured fairly reliably) and the intermittency of the "green" resources.

     

    The upgrade deferrals made possible by widespread adoption of micro-grids and storage help their bottom line and simultaneously help achieve their "green" mandate while transferring a (possibly) substantial portion of the (capital) costs to the end users.

     

    The operators' costs are then spread over a long period with "paybacks" over time to those that added capacity that is available to the grid. In some ways it's a lot like what's already done when one operator buys power from another.

     

    "Win/win" as they say.

     

    I (the utility) meet (some of) my goals using *your* money and you meet (some of) your goals and get a fair amount of your money back, in the form of reduced billing and/or a check, over time.

     

    Two seemingly unrelated sets of goals get satisfied by a common solution.

     

    The push back should abate over time as some brighter individuals see the possibilities.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: "but what happens when you (eventually?) take away significant parts on the demand side?"

     

    Had to think about this one. The apparently obvious answer seems to be a case of the wrong question.

     

    I think it's better framed as "What happens when you increase supply".

     

    We have a bifurcated situation here. Demand has not really dropped anywhere at all. Demand on the centralized generation and the distribution network has dropped, of course, but it's just been shifted to the distributed resources (supply) which logically ought to be increasing. But the aggregate demand continues to rise.

     

    So the "immediate" "natural" effect should be manifold: lower end-user prices (over the longer-term - adjustments need time to occur) as many distributed resources compete, through the auction process(?), to "sell" excess(?) generating capacity to the grid operators; the grid operators have the *potential* for increased profitability through reduced capex requirements even as capacity increases, and the ability to act as a "reseller", which just marks up power purchased from the (local) competing generators (users and micro-grids).

     

    Lots of potential impediments, of course, such as whether regulators allow increased profitability in this scenario. Viewed strictly from a consumer advocate POV, a regulator might take the stance that consumer-produced energy should be sold at a lower margin since the grid operator incurred minimal expense in obtaining this capacity.

     

    We could argue for deregulation in such a scenario, but this is one of the areas where I believe "social benefits and goals" would dictate that we keep a regulatory hand in the pot, but maybe with modified guidelines and profit goals.

     

    There used to be a saying, "If you're not growing you're dieing". Maybe this needs to be somehow incorporated into the considerations that drive regulatory decisions.

     

    I can envision a scenario where a grid operator is permitted to bid for energy generated in another operators area without having to buy it from the grid operator. This would provide a modicum of "competition" among the operators, alleviating some consequences of existing in a regulated monopolistic environment. The "local" grid operator would garner a small fee for the transmission services provided. This should be priced such that the "local" grid operator has an incentive to maintain and expand a reliable grid as needed.

     

    To assure we didn't have the disparity of wealth causing undue hardship, our "regulatory hand" would try to maintain goals about level of service and pricing that achieve the social goal of "affordable universal service".

     

    Other than that, ISTM that a natural effect would be market-dictated addition of capacity when and where needed, possibly by allowing the market-dictated pricing to seep through to what a grid operator could offer to a "local" mini-generation source and letting decisions about adding central generating capacity to be driven by similar factors, for the most part.

     

    ISTM that FERC-755 and what Viridity/PJM have begun doing already lead to something along these lines.

     

    One issue I see is that I think this works best where there is good population density and relative wealth. Low-density areas and/or poorer areas have a difficult time participating in this scenario, and that is (mostly) what leads me to think that a regulatory hand is still worthwhile.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: it looks, on the surface, as if VOST is a nice solution. One thing that makes me think this is so is that the generator (the residential solar in this case) gains the benefit of selling the electricity to the grid only through its presence.

     

    This has a cost associated with it and, since the cost of the grid is normally buried in the rates, it seems reasonable that the generator pays at least the incremental cost of the grid to his location to receive the benefits of being able to sell to the grid.

     

    On first glance, I think I like it.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Our local utility already had the cost of delivery (NG and electric) separate from the cost of the deliverable product. Is it perfectly clean. I haven't dug in that far. This was done about 5 or 6 years ago if I remember correctly. I suspect it was done in anticipation of what's coming but who knows.

     

    We can already choose service providers. It is not truly competitive though IMHO. I think the supplier are very adept at keeping fuel savings to themselves.
    25 Aug 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "Our local utility already had the cost of delivery (NG and electric) separate from the cost of the deliverable product."

     

    Same here, iind. But, ISTM HTL is definitely on target re-the broad scheme of things. Grid power has been moving in the direction sketched by HTL since "deregulation" of electric power generation became fashionable which, depending on one's geographic/political location, has been underway a decade or more.

     

    State regulators can bolox up development of power generation competition or facilitate it. MD is doing an outstanding job of limiting competition and elevating power prices. They have introduced a bonding requirement for "rate stabilization", an "EmPower MD" charge, a universal service charge, an environmental surcharge, and a franchise tax. Counting the "rate stablization" bonding premium as 'user fee', my current power bill is roughly 63% electric power, 21.9% distribution charge, and 15.5% taxes and user fees.
    25 Aug 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I don't recall saying it went well. :))

     

    All the entities involved used the confusion to reward themselves at the expense of the consumer. I can see why various entities that have the latitude are figuring out ways to play the game or exit the table. Good luck to them. The regulators will follow but only after the revenues dwindle.

     

    What a mess.. Now you know why nobody will invest their own money in large long term solutions. Never show a thief what's in your pockets. How will it all work out. Not well. Use the original NS999 as an example. No accountability with government funds.
    25 Aug 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I, too, NEVER allow automated updates on my computers...
    25 Aug 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    TB: good more. Ditto here. For my Widows box, it tells me something is available and I decide yes, no or later to look again.

     

    Even on my Linux boxes, which I trust *way* more than Windows, I follow the same process. And critical items, such as the kernel, are kept 5 versions back so I can reboot any of them at any time (had occasion to do this recently on one box when a kernel update didn't do so well).

     

    I advocate all use the process of "Tell me about 'em but let me decide what and when".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    D-inv---thanks much for your replies to my FERC 755 posts. Somehow they almost got lost in a forest of unrelated posts!
    26 Aug 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "I, too, NEVER allow automated updates on my computers... "

     

    Ditto.
    26 Aug 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes it's nice to be a Mac user.
    26 Aug 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    ARCA stuck and screwing up Level II again ... at the top of my Offer list with a bogus 7200@.33

     

    Makes you all warm and fuzzy about the machines when you see this 2 days in a row

     

    BTW, we need some training on those Offering folks ... they haven't learned the joys of beating by .0001 yet :-)
    24 Aug 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Well, it looks like today is the day that AXPW and AONE pass each other, going opposite directions, on the stock ticker. Good for Axion. Very sad for A123.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    8/24/12 = .277 That is my lowest buy price. Any numerologists out there?
    24 Aug 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Nope, didn't happen. Still a penny apart.
    24 Aug 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Everyone has to choose their own strategy in an attempt to garner advantage.

     

    http://bit.ly/NKOzt1
    24 Aug 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Electric Car Owners All Plug In at Once

     

    Data from the world's most concentrated neighborhood of Chevy Volts reveals when owners are actually charging their cars

     

    By Mark Fischetti (Scientific American)

     

    http://bit.ly/PCrMOI
    24 Aug 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "So perhaps special solar-power incentives for homeowners who drive electric vehicles would be a fruitful way to lessen peak demand as the cars proliferate."

     

    When I moved to Europe in 1993, one of the things I noticed was that people were always calling on and expecting the government to solve any and all obstacles and difficulties i.e. flooding, a factory shutting and unemploying workers, money needed to expand factory, money needed to open factory, etc.

     

    Seems that attitude is moving toward the states. Not only do people want me to subsidize their electric cars, but they want me to subsidize their solar panels. If they can afford an EV, then they can fork out for the solar panels.

     

    I have more to rant about but will leave it at this point.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    And I can again offer my favorite quote:

     

    "Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." -Frederic Bastiat, 1848

     

    http://bit.ly/yq6PXC
    24 Aug 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "I have not the pleasure of knowing my reader but I would stake ten to one that for six months he has been making Utopias, and if so, that he is looking to Government for the realization of them."

     

    I like the above quote by Bastiat taken from SMaturin link.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (955) | Send Message
     
    there are 10 charging stations at my workplace. We have a couple of Volt owners and a couple of Think cars that plug in daily. I think they'll eventually be charged (pun) for the electricity, but for now I think they hookup for free.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    And this Bastiat quote is for JP and his EVangelicals:

     

    "I am looked upon as a man without heart and without feeling - a dry philosopher, an individualist, a plebeian - in a word, an economist of the practical school. But, pardon me, sublime writers, who stop at nothing, not even at contradictions. I am wrong, without a doubt, and I would willingly retract. I should be glad enough, you may be sure, if you had really discovered a beneficent and inexhaustible being, calling itself the Government, which has bread for all mouths, work for all hands, capital for all enterprises, credit for all projects, oil for all wounds, balm for all sufferings, advice for all perplexities, solutions for all doubts, truths for all intellects, diversions for all who want them, milk for infancy, and wine for old age - which can provide for all our wants, satisfy all our curiosity, correct all our errors, repair all our faults, and exempt us henceforth from the necessity for foresight, prudence, judgment, sagacity, experience, order, economy, temperance, and activity."
    24 Aug 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: For all that I'd willingly pay B. Franklin's "onerous" 10% ... except that I know eventually they would both take the other 90% (they can't help themselves, it's in the genes) and withdraw all those services not conducive to their accretion of greater control ( DNA again) and give the fruits of my labor to others that support them ... wait! This all sound vaguely familiar?

     

    HardToLove
    24 Aug 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Mind if I bum that quote and link from you guys I am going to publish it in my little Political QuickChat insta.

     

    (I am going to do it before I get a reply from you guys so don't bother answering) :-)
    24 Aug 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10213) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if they take into account that while a vehicle may be plugged in and communicating with the EVSE it may be on timed charging and not actually start charging till later.
    25 Aug 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Just got this in from Mario Battero, of Rosewater.

     

    Congrats to Rosewater for winning the Exc!te Award!

     

    (Pasted in from the PDF Mario sent me)

     

    9000 Keele Street Unit 4 Concord, Ontario, Canada L4K 0B3 http://bit.ly/yUPfAj
    1404 E. Las Olas Blvd. Ste B # 2510 Fort Lauderdale FL. USA 33301-9997
    Residential Energy Storage Hub from Rosewater Energy Wins 2012 CustomRetailer EXC!TE Award
    New energy storage system's robust storage capabilities and enhanced energy output recognized by leading custom installation publication
    Dateline – August 20, 2012 – Rosewater Energy Group, a provider of next-generation energy storage products, has proudly been named the recipient of a 2012 CustomRetailer EXC!TE Award for the Rosewater Residential Energy Storage Hub.
    The Residential Energy Storage Hub enables homeowners to utilize the benefits of renewable energy sources and harness all incoming power to the home—including power from the grid, renewables and/or auxiliary generators.
    Presented annually, the CustomRetailer EXC!TE Awards program honors products that demonstrate the excitement and growth of the custom installation and consumer electronics industries. Winners are chosen by CustomRetailer's editors and contributors, as well as selected retailers and industry observers. The 2012 EXC!TE Award winners will be recognized at a special awards reception at CEDIA EXPO 2012 in Indianapolis, Ind.
    “We're honored to be recognized by the CustomRetailer EXC!TE Awards program," said Joe Piccirilli, managing director for Rosewater Energy Group. "We would like to thank the awards committee for recognizing the unique ability the Residential Energy Storage Hub has to serve as the perfect energy storage solution for any homeowner who desires the benefits of a reliable power supply."
    Built to provide a variety of solutions for your energy needs, the Residential Energy Storage Hub serves as an uninterruptible power supply (UPS) for the home and also conditions incoming utility and auxiliary power while providing flexibility to the customer with features such integration of renewable solar energy.
    The system acts as a surge protector and assures that, regardless of source, the connected circuits will always see pure sign waves at 110 volts and 60 cycles. It will also allow the user to participate in demand/response programs from their local utilities and go “off grid”, enabling power independence.
    The system employs the Axion Power advanced lead–carbon battery which ensures 5-20 times the cycle life of traditional lead acid batteries, is safe for home use (UL approved) and is over 99% recyclable.
    9000 Keele Street Unit 4 Concord, Ontario, Canada L4K 0B3 http://bit.ly/yUPfAj
    1404 E. Las Olas Blvd. Ste B # 2510 Fort Lauderdale FL. USA 33301-9997
    The Residential Energy Storage Hug uses a 10 kW/12kWh power quality conversion switchgear that utilizes UPS technology and corrects many common power quality problems that can occur with power from the grid, renewables and back up generators.
    The system is easily configured through the use of the Energy Router™, allowing the simple integration of on-board UPS monitoring functions: solar energy production and usage, utility smart grid interface requirements and other features. This functionality provides homeowners monitoring capabilities from both in-home and remote access systems—a service that is quickly growing in demand.
    The Residential Energy Storage Hub will be available in September 2012. It will be introduced to the dealer community at CEDIA Expo 2012.
    For more information on the Residential Energy Storage Hub and Rosewater Energy, please visit http://bit.ly/yUPfAj.
    About RoseWater Energy Group
    RoseWater Energy was created through the innovation and expertise of many individuals that came together to create an energy storage consortium. With a history of success in multiple fields, Rosewater is focused on bringing that same success to creating, delivering and servicing the next generation of energy storage products. The network spans the globe and Rosewater's products will service multiple applications for governments, utilities, industries and consumers. The next generation of energy is upon us, and RoseWater Energy will prepare you for it.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "The Residential Energy Storage Hub will be available in September 2012."

     

    Good news. Thanks Maya!
    24 Aug 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Let's hope that means what it looks like.

     

    Available for dealer introduction (and education) is one thing.

     

    Available for installation (and being UL certified for Grid Connection) is another. The date of the show and the opportunity to reach key "stakeholders" was fixed.

     

    We'll see ...
    24 Aug 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    The thing certainly seems to sound not half-baked. IIRC, Joe talked about all the tweaking and customer (integrator) input they incorporated into it over the couple of years of its development--so hopefully when this thing debuts in a few weeks, it's really going to knock their socks off as a polished product, really tailored well to the intended market and audience...
    24 Aug 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    "The Residential Energy Storage Hug uses "

     

    I want that hug they mention - market's been mean lately and we could all use one!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Aug 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    Based on a suggestion 481086 posted to Concentrator No. 143, I created a graph that tracks Axion's outstanding shares and market capitalization since January 2010. You can download a copy here:

     

    http://bit.ly/TZzUt3

     

    I've sent a copy to the APH for possible inclusion in the Concentrator header. In my view the decline in Axion's market capitalization in the face of serial business and technical successes is more than a bit shocking.

     

    In a normal situation I would have expected the market cap to ramp up slowly from the plateau in early 2010 as NS, BMW, GM, Viridity and Asia joined the PbC party. Talk about zigging when it should have zagged.
    24 Aug 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    You would think that if they want to be successful it would have to ... they are going to be catering to a high brow crowd ...
    24 Aug 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Good work Maya and Rosewater, thanks.

     

    TG said Rosewater would be accepting orders at CEDIA. I assume sales won't occur in the U.S. until UL cert., which he thought would come by this year's end, IIRC. I've been saying that the most important data point for investors is orders, so I hope they release that info soon after the show, instead of waiting for sales figures. The release of order info is common in manufacturing. And this is a retail product, where there's nothing like news of orders to spark more orders.
    24 Aug 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1672) | Send Message
     
    The press release says "UL approved".

     

    I read that to refer to "The system" but its possible the way its written that they meant the bio-carbon battery is what is UL approved.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, the "UL approved" is clearly about the PbC.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I'll go out on a limb and say that Rosewater's going into the show with at least one order already in their pocket. It'll be announced then for effect. It will help pay for the number of shoes he's already worn out beating the pavement, most probably, long before we even suspected what's unfolding.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    As bad as Axion's MC chart may look right now, I bet it compares not at all that badly with a whole legion of its brethren... many with serial raises, splits, and exercises etc in their march to the sea... AOne comes chiefly to mind but so too vlnc, zbb, beacon, altairnano, HEV, etc etc...
    24 Aug 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "The system employs the Axion Power advanced lead–carbon battery which ensures 5-20 times the cycle life of traditional lead acid batteries, is safe for home use (UL approved) and is over 99% recyclable."

     

    Yes, now all they have to do is get the Hub UL approved. I hope Pic is correct and this will not be a drawn out process.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1672) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I think you're right, thanks.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    D-Lane, sorry if I came off as a tool. But then again, I am one, so at least I'm consistent.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    iinde--I'm think'n Joe will be dissappointed if they get < 10 orders at the show or by shortly thereafter. 2 yrs in the making. Integrators crawling over the stuff already. Working with a subset of 12,000 of 'em. Very successful track record in the same general industry, just freshly off a non-compete. The 1% of the 1%ers still doing great. Just won an award. Unit minimums kick in shortly, per TG. American made. Beverly Hills, the Hamptons, Dubai, oh my. Dogs hugging cats. Dancing girls. Surf'n the sine wave.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Now if they can just develop a sump pump that doesn't burn out when you need it most ... :-)
    24 Aug 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    WTB, They have. It's called a back-up and you leave in hooked up right next to the other one with the float set-up just a little higher. Far far cheaper than the alternative.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I aimed low. I don't know the number but based on his time spent on the program and decision to go forward with it he should easily come in with a positive launch event.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: I'm not sure Rosewater will get any orders. I may be mistaken, but the Cedia Expo is where your local home entertainment companies, or "dealers," from around the country, maybe from Canada, too, all come to learn what's new, to learn what new whistles and bells they can sell to their customers.

     

    I'm not sure the market they intend to sell to, the very wealthy, would come to a show like this.

     

    I recall speaking with a company last year that does home entertainment installations, everything from TVs, to mounts, wiring, to audio, to security, etc., and the gentleman I was speaking to, referred to this show, as he was one of the folks who attended it last year.

     

    This expo may be about gaining attention from those dealers, more so than gaining sales.

     

    Again, I may be wrong. But my hopes aren't too high of direct sales to end users because of what I learned a year ago.

     

    On a personal note, I'm glad I waited. I learned this year that May through July, the sun shines through a skylight, and at 3:00 everyday, the sun would shine smack dab directly onto the Panasonic, which I had earlier thought I would affix to the broad chimney above my great room fireplace.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Maya, since TG said that Rosewater will be accepting orders at the show, they are under tight minimums which kick in shortly thereafter, they have 'greased the skids' already with their development involvement with integrators, and they have deep experience in the general industry, not getting orders there or shorlty thereafter would be a disappointment for me. Everyone can make their own expectations, of course. What's also cool is that we may know in the near future. I'm certainly not expecting big numbers, but I'm not expecting zero, either.

     

    I'm guessing that the purchasers will be a mix of agents ("integrators" or whatever) and end-users. Gotta think that a lot of wealthy folks trust "their guy" with these decisions of what exactly to buy. Although they hold the purse strings, they don't especially care that much what it is or how it works. Like working with their other experts--accountants, lawyers, doctors. They just want the stuff to work flawlessly.

     

    Then there are the tinkerers/hobbyists, who want to make those decisions themselves. They may not work with integrators at all. These guys sound like the difficult prospective customers to me. I had engineer clients, and other Advisors looked at me like I was crazy taking that on.

     

    I could be way the heck off, but I was in high-end retail as a Financial Advisor, and found that prospects fell into those two broad groups. The best clients understood the concept of delegation to experts. Once we trusted each other, they just wanted me to go do it.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    I don't have it in my notes, but my foggy memory recalls that somehow I formed the conclusion that Rosewater was planning to accept pre-orders with deposits. Does anyone else who was at the shareholder conference remember anything like this?
    24 Aug 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Al: Most definitely. Rosewater is prepared to take pre-orders. But pulling together an entire home audio/theater/security system, with solar and a HUB pre-order in a day or two is a lot to tackle.

     

    If I was spending a $100K, I would want someone to see where I live, see the media room, help me choose best of where to put the HUB, the solar array, etc.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Maya, keeps tying back to what you'll find out in Indy. Should be very helpful. Thanks again.

     

    The big picture for me is how big does Rosewater want to become? Looks to me like Joe and the guys are hungry AND savy. They already grew and sold a company for $150mil I think JP wrote. I'm thinking $2mil or $5mil/yr in peak revenues has almost no meaning to these guys. Why the heck bother? Go away! I would venture something much, much more, like 10x those amounts.

     

    I hope the HUB is a great start.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    If there were contractors involved in the development of the Hub then I suspect they have already identified clients that could use it. I say there are orders in the wings...
    24 Aug 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: No doubt this is a revolutionary business premise. And I do believe it will work. However, there are so many unknowns.

     

    I'll be there, and will report back what sales there are (if Pic will divulge). My gut feeling is that for us Axionistas to get raged up about potential PbC Expo sales, is perhaps getting a little ahead.

     

    Anyone who hasn't yet learned that anything Axion is involved with -- that takes a lot of time to realize profits -- is a tad ahead of reality.

     

    But it's going to be a lot of fun. Rosewater has a great idea -- and it applies to far more than home entertainment systems.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    In April 2005, Joe and his partners sold their company AVAD to Ingram Micro for "$120 million up front, with earn-out payments of up to $80 million over the next three years ... even more if AVAD reaches "extraordinary performance levels."

     

    http://bit.ly/NcFfI8

     

    It would take a boatload of revenue for a sales organization to be worth that kind of cash.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    The overview of the HUB's value for AXPW investors, IMO, is not that it will by itself propel the stock price a lot higher, but that it may provide some fill for the orders/sales/info/addl'n proof of concept, etc. hole in between bigger events (rail, PC, s/s).

     

    Bird in the hand, while we otherwise wait.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I never took residential hub seriously until the majority of concentrator participants concluded that AXPW delayed CC by one day waiting for joe p.'s 15 minutes call. Then I raised my anticipation a little from one or two hundred hub sales to 500 units for the first year. Or maybe future historians would tell our descendants Sept 5th, 2012 is the day when smart grid, one of the most important technology innovation human ever achieved, makes its infant step forward. Who knows?
    25 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "The overview of the HUB's value for AXPW investors, IMO, is not that it will by itself propel the stock price a lot higher, but that it may provide some fill for the orders/sales/info/addl'n proof of concept, etc. hole in between bigger events (rail, PC, s/s). "

     

    Nice perspective AFAIC, but it will not apply until UL cert is available.
    25 Aug 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Will be interesting to watch (hopefully the data will be made available) where the sales happen. I'm not even sure Axion will break out the TOTAL Hub or PowerCube sales and or margins anytime soon. Hub buyers probably are privacy sensitive, so that may be a factor in the types of reports we may get.

     

    So many factors/questions ...

     

    Biggest concentrations of the "1 %"?

     

    Most unstable grid in a very prosperous area? Part of Texas come to mind when you think about summer price increases and capacity concerns. Perhaps California as well, especially with the nuclear plant concerns. Push now before Tres Amigas gets all fired up and expanded. :-)

     

    Most progressive "smart grid" local power company? The variability in the electronic communication between the power company and the user will probably be quite large across the nation for quite a while. I presume there won't be aggregators like Viridity Energy in the middle like for PowerCubes.

     

    Does the local power company have time of day pricing? Does the Hub have the smarts to take advantage of that?

     

    Will it be priced such that those can afford it don't care about price of power at any time of the day?

     

    Could it become a status symbol?!!

     

    How much will home security specialists get involved? How much of the target market is already using some sort of UPS perhaps facilitated by these security specialists? Do these systems wear out periodically thus giving the opportunity to get something new in the door?

     

    How long till we see contract decorating specialists! :-)
    25 Aug 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    WTB, The "services for the affluent" is a market I don't understand as I don't live near it and I've never worked in a position to have any significant level of interface.

     

    I do recall a conversation with a co-worker a few years back that shared a conversation with a fellow "snow bird" that had opened a business in Florida. He was doing landscaping and holiday decorating for the affluent. These people thought nothing of paying 5, 10, 20k USD to have a crew come in and put up holiday decorations and then take them back down afterward. This was before the "Great Recession" so I'm sure there has been some impact but I'm also sure there is still a market that people service where money is just not thought of the same way when it comes to purchasing the "necessities".
    25 Aug 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Tim: "I say there are orders in the wings".

     

    I say they're in their pockets already with *more* in the wings.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3648) | Send Message
     
    Those 100k-300K/per+ installs add up pretty quick once the orders get into the dozens per month levels. Nevertheless I don't think Axion will be making much margin on the PbC sales to Rosewater and likely any profits are a secondary thought to a "just getting our product out there" mentality. Still much cheaper than build their own 'retail' sales force though.
    25 Aug 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Rosewater will be the least bit ashamed about demanding a price where everybody in the food chain does just fine. They're not going to be selling to penny pinchers or folks who have to justify their spending decisions to boards of directors, accounting staffs or utility regulators.
    25 Aug 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3648) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to see some nice volume and margin from Rosewater. But if I had to choose I'd take volume. I do hope they are a great success and that overflows to Axion.
    25 Aug 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if I'm correct as maybe I'm just noticing it. Rosewater in their draft residential power cube specs is making a few changes which they do in bold text. Now the life is 3-4 times the life of "advanced lead acid batteries". They should define what they are comparing to. 3 TO 4 times AGM, Gel, Spiral wound AMG, Carbon Enhanced AGM, Ultrabattery?

     

    http://bit.ly/MfIjmy
    25 Aug 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    The partnerships are important and the testing going on with partners is very important.

     

    How has the market reacted to these events? Yawn.

     

    I suspect sales are going to be needed or a contract with an identifiable size of futures sales. I don't know how you could get a better backdrop for a micro cap than the one they already have. I think people want to see a path to production. TG has not laid that out very well and my guess is that he can't because of the types of partners he's had up until Rosewater.
    25 Aug 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "Those 100k-300K/per+ installs add up pretty quick once the orders get into the dozens per month levels. Nevertheless I don't think Axion will be making much margin on the PbC sales to Rosewater ...."

     

    TG responses to WTB's questions come into play here. Margins on HUBs and PCs will be a weighted average of margins on PbCs and mark up on containers, inverters, etc.
    25 Aug 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Am I correct in my thinking that the Hub is an Axion product (in its entirety) and Rosewater has exclusive distribution rights as long as they meet the minimum unit sales? meaning margins across the package not just the PbC batteries. Would someone smarter than me (most of you) please lay out this relationship so that even I can understand it? it remains cloudy to me...
    25 Aug 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... About battery life, Rosewater is accepting the warranty liability so even if a PbC can/might last 5 to 10 time the cycle life of an "advanced lead acid battery(s)" they are probably not going out on that limb. Just sayin'. It would be nice to know their base comparison but it really doesn't matter.
    25 Aug 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    "Would someone smarter than me"

     

    "I'm sorry Dave, I can't do that"

     

    ... that is, determine who is smarter than you. So you aren't likely to get an answer as none of us want s to embarrass ourselves by assuming we are smarter than you ... and then possibly discovering we were wrong!

     

    =>8-O

     

    However, I recall a recent posting that iterated that the HUB was a 100% Axion manufactured product. And the rest of your post matches my understanding, although it could be flawed. If not flawed, the blend of markups normally applied to such things should have a very reasonable margin.

     

    In the case of early ramp where product acceptance is unknown I guess it might be slimmer than would be seen in a "mature" product though.

     

    That's how I read things.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Fair point and you are very kind HTL. Although, I consider myself the student in this group...
    25 Aug 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I asked Tom about relationships between Rosewater, Viridity, and Axion in the last call and pressed him on manufacturing and as I recall he said that Rosewater had nothing to do with manufacturing.
    25 Aug 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I would think Axion has some level of warranty coverage for the PBC battery itself. The balance might be Rosewater but they would be heavily protected by component supplier warranties such as on the inverter.

     

    The base comparison would be very important in making the sale from my perspective. Only in that people would want to know how long before they have to replace the batteries. In the high end market they will probably sell service agreements with the sale and install. In the service agreement the replacement cycle will be black and white.
    25 Aug 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "... probably sell service agreements with the sale and install",

     

    If (CPST) is any indicator, that's a very attractive proposition. CPST's customers have been buying this high-margin product at a very high rate - my guess is having a known-in-advance TCO is seductive to the end users.

     

    They have seen good uptake on both 5 and 9 year versions that cover everything.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Tim: <*chuckle*> "I consider myself the student in this group".

     

    You have a lot of company I think.

     

    IMO, any who do *not* consider themselves students are guilty of hubris. The diversity of backgrounds made available, by all, to all, makes all students here, as it should be.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    The market cap was $120M when each battery was built by hand. There were only prototypes made available for proof-of-concept development testing. The scalable automated line was still an engineering project.

     

    Now there are end-user sales, an automated production line that can be quickly duplicated, a VAR actively engaged in selling. There is even a mention of break-even if a ramp-up does not materialize. But the market cap is 1/4 of what it was. That is my take on the graph.
    24 Aug 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    That's pretty close JohnM121.

     

    In March of 2010 Axion had no product, no revenue and no visible industry relationships.

     

    Today it has all of the above, and then some, but trades at a 2/3 discount to the March 2010 price.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    To play devil's advocate ....

     

    maybe it was just (grossly?) overvalued 2 years ago.

     

    There's been a bunch of come to Jesus moments by all sorts of developmental micro-caps in the last 4 or so years ...

     

    part of the equation is the time value of money ... and our ADD and "what have you done for me lately" investment world.

     

    and the availability of credit ...

     

    This is not to deny the impact of the massive selling, but even some of that resulted indirectly from some of these factors in the case of Quercus
    24 Aug 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Quite right WTB. (though maybe I would have left out "grossly") But to murder a timeless quote from Full Metal Jacket and apply it to the past 4 years: "It's been one big $hiite sandwish, and we've all had to take a bite... " Unless that is of course you're in banking. ;)
    24 Aug 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    But when that's on the menu it's best to dig right in and avoid the temptation to nibble.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Words of wisdom, John. Just to clarify myself, I was speaking of the whole alt/green -- tech/energy landscape...basically everything that Quercus invested in is a good proxy for what I mean---and this landscape has been just one wide field of unmitigated carnage and open arteries these last few years... I mean who is unscathed? It's a small club: Polypore? Active Power? JCI? Anybody else (other than GS)?
    24 Aug 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like what the Elephant Hunters' graph looks like.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    "and this landscape has been just one wide field of unmitigated carnage and open arteries" Wow - what a metaphor! LMAO.
    25 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    First Wind and Xtreme Power Hawaii update:

     

    "First Wind, Xtreme Power release lead test results"
    http://bit.ly/SwUKBJ

     

    " soil and air tests show normal levels of lead in the area after a recent fire."

     

    Speaking of wind, first farm opens in Nevada, which surprised me a little though I haven't looked at the Wind Maps ...

     

    http://yhoo.it/NOSqRr;_ylt=A2KLOzFJXjdQFkIA...
    24 Aug 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm...I didn't think that Xtreme Power was using LA batteries? Why would they be looking for lead?
    24 Aug 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    JP said in this comment:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "Rumor has it that there are surveillance videos from inside the building as the batteries went off like roman candles and left them with 850,000 pounds of molten lead on the floor. I'm hoping that somebody decides to post them somewhere because it still strikes me as odd that the batteries would burn."

     

    and also:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "While Xtreme Power is very vague about their chemistry, it's clearly not straight lead-acid. They're building some sort of bi-polar dry cell, which is an entirely different beast, and apparently more flammable. I'm sure questions will be asked and answered, but there's no reason to believe that any *true* lead-acid battery presents a comparable fire risk."
    24 Aug 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Toyota Signs Deal With Umicore for Battery Recycling

     

    No comments about the Li and La.

     

    http://bit.ly/NqQfCd
    24 Aug 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Well, this isn't helping my weekend get started right:

     

    RICHMOND, B.C.,CANADA (Aug 23, 2012) -- Corvus Energy is providing 16 industrial use lithium-ion AT6500-48V batteries for a prototype hybrid switching locomotive being developed by Alternative Motive Power Systems (AMPS) with the help of a New Technology Research and Development (NTRD) grant from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

     

    http://bit.ly/PHgztZ

     

    http://bit.ly/OfbtXO (where rail NOT listed under it's application tabs)
    24 Aug 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    and who knew there was a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality?! Surely the Energy lobby plus Perry and the boys down there have by now stopped spending on all that hippie science-y stuff ...
    24 Aug 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Thanks. Good find.

     

    I think it was John that pointed out the space constraints of putting batteries and engines in a hybrid locomotive package. Here we have a genset hybrid locomotive. Perhaps PBC is not right given the space available after the gensets are in?

     

    NS will be all electric and an OTR power cube type locomotive that packages with electric diesel locomotives.

     

    That being said I hope this isn't the "other railroad" opportunity TG talked about.
    24 Aug 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    Those battery modules are 5.8 or 6.5 kWh each (http://bit.ly/QzShjz) which means the locomotive has about 100 kWh of energy.

     

    The data sheet says each battery replaces 14 group 31 batteries.
    24 Aug 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,

     

    Didn't you originally find reference to this back in April?

     

    From APC #88 post from bobhaeger:

     

    "From an IINDelco post on brand X. Alternative Motive Power Systems is testing Axion's PbC for Texas Commission on Environmental Quality."

     

    http://bit.ly/HJM1Vt
    24 Aug 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    User432382, Thanks. Forgot about that. Hope it's not TG's only lead besides NS.

     

    Maybe it's because brand x was driving me crazy......er. ;)
    24 Aug 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    I remember this project. AMPS selected the PC1800 (or so we thought) and the last I heard the PC1800 was sent to Penn State for testing. Could it be the PC1800 failed? will they bypass the Penn State testing with Corvus (everyone knows Li will work when all else fails)? Other than their battery selection, I like the AMPS concept of the hybrid switcher - one little genset, one big genset and a bank of batteries...
    24 Aug 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... Railpower proved that one genset was quite sufficient. There is probably a patent on the design still in effect, thus the AMPS design. NS proved to themselves and published the fact that Li-on wasn't up to the switcher task. PC1800, being a "pure lead" battery, was probably flunked by Penn State just out-of-hand. Well, this is Texas with the 47th worst education system in these here United States run by a political gang educated by whoever is 52nd. They don't take very well to facts.
    24 Aug 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Here's the latest report I could find via Google using the contract number on that project:

     

    http://bit.ly/JgXKsd
    24 Aug 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    > DRich ... Appreciate your nudges to keep me on track...
    24 Aug 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "Well, this is Texas with the 47th worst education system in these here United States run by a political gang educated by whoever is 52nd."

     

    :-) Talking about my alma mater there, DR. Obviously you just don't understand that the most important thang to larn in skul is football.
    24 Aug 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Being 5th generation, I am aware of how things work and what is really important here in Texas. It is nothing like the place I grew up in. It used to be conservative but I guess that wasn't good enough. The state is in a race to figure out if the newcomers or cattle have the lesser ability to think. I live about 6 miles away from this

     

    http://bit.ly/OaVSGT

     

    but couldn't find the funds for 50 teachers.
    24 Aug 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    DRich, UN-Be-Liev-Able. I can't say any more.
    24 Aug 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "Being 5th generation, I am aware of how things work and what is really important here in Texas. It is nothing like the place I grew up in."

     

    Hey there "5th generation" Texan! Your family has been there a while! My family planted roots there four generations back (1846).

     

    "Nothing like the place I grew up in" sure rings true with what I have observed on return trips to visit family and friends. There was a time in West Texas (oilfield community) when students who did not perform on grade level academically did not advance a grade and, if seniors (whether football stars or other), did not earn a diploma. Six percent of my HS senior class did not do well enough on 2nd semester finals to earn diplomas. A brother-in-law grew up in a central Texas farming community, played 6-man football for a school so small his senior class consisted of nine students. All graduated. Only one stopped formal education with high school. Everyone else went on to earn masters degrees (2 - math education, aeronautical engineering) and Phds (6 - subject matter areas I am aware of included mathematics, genetics, chemistry, physics, veterinary science).
    24 Aug 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "AMPS modular gen-set package with a hybrid gen-set module is the first of its kind in the road switching/short line locomotive marketplace. It is anticipated that repowering a conventional road switching locomotive with AMPS hybrid gen-set package will reduce NOx emissions by up to 98% and achieve 65% fuels savings. For railcar movement indoors or in sensitive areas, AMPS Hybrid Gen-Set locomotive will be able to function for short periods of time with zero emissions due to the ability to operate without running the internal combustion engine"

     

    Errr...how? Call me a little bit of a cynic, but how do you reduce NOx emissions by up to 98% and achieve 65% fuel savings if you are still charging the system with a diesel generator? I understand that the batteries allow you to not have to keep the thing idling all the time, but as I understand it, the NS999 would be plugged into the grid, so it wouldn't require any diesel generation. How can it have higher NOx emissions and less fuel savings?
    24 Aug 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, They are probably comparing this to some very old OTR locomotive used in a rail yard with a low duty cycle that doesn't have SS technology. That's how it works in government. Show them how good you are compared to what they did 40 years ago worse case technology you can find.
    24 Aug 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    Awww...now you can't do that to some poor kid. Keep him back a year just because he can't read, or write on the level he/she is supposed to be graduating? How are they going to get their trophy for having participated if they don't win all the time?
    24 Aug 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Lab Tech ... Just as an aside which some will find interesting and might remove some of the anxiety for the fate of Axion on the rails. A new GenSet locomotive is approximately six times more expensive than the cost of a traditional diesel locomotive in rebuilt condition. A LEAF (the type of rebuild presently in question) is about the same. A traditional diesel rebuild runs about $1M.

     

    NS999 will probably run about the same as a traditional rebuild and will be 75% at scale. I don't know what the cost of the charging infrastructure might cost but it is bound to workout on diesel fuel savings alone. An EMD SW1200 (a small switcher) equipped with a 12-cylinder 567C engine will use 2.5 gallons of fuel an hour at idle & 70 gallons per hour at full load.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    LT, such was the corrosive process whereby political reality slowly but steadily displaced real reality. It was a lovely time for a spell, while real reality took a nice nap, coasting on the fruits of past toil and achievements. And on the cumulative wisdom of lessons learned with pain the hard way. It was a slow process but eventually led to kids and teenagers who for the first time were taught that feeling good was more important than actually doing good and being good. It's not much wonder then that they and their progeny increasingly became to value feeling good more highly than anything else. And developing the means and capabilities to earn and achieve the real things that legitimately make one feel good? That was for squares and suckers. Self esteem is fraudulent, false, toxic and ultimately destructive if not based on real things: true accomplishments and genuine virtues. But as soon as feelings became more important than facts, the road was chosen....
    24 Aug 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... That reads like so much bull flop & might work with those from California or that still have firing neurons. Texas is all about making money and stupid is profitable and easily swayed. Good for business. No offense.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Do you have any feel for what kind of workload these yard switchers are doing? Specifically, are they running 3 shift/7 days a week. Also what are the duty cycles as it relates to their ability to plug in? I'm sure the fleet workload is not homogeneous but what kind of range are we talking about?
    24 Aug 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... No, I haven't got a clue. First, there are just too many ways to slice the usage with a large assortment of engine sizes varying in age and maintenance condition. My WAG might be a national average might be ~500 gallons per day for a working (yard & dock) fleet of ~ 6,000 units. Road switchers are eligible for LEAF & Genset service but duty cycle is way beyond my feeble mind to figure.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Thanks. My interest was not only economic but the ability to opportunity charge in the case of battery yard switchers. Especially if you're running these things 3 shifts which I would imagine many areas are like ports.

     

    I thought I recalled one of the reasons the NS999 failed prematurely was that they had usage patterns that were draining the batteries deeper than design intent. Not that the PBC batteries shouldn't be far better for the app. anyway.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    DR, none taken. Ever. It's Friday evening and I don't have a life, so therefore I spout. Apologies and gratitude to all. As far as my blather, It might well be bull flop in Texas, but I remember my 1970's school years well in Calif, spread out over several diverse socio-economic locales, and the dynamic I described is much what I witnessed and experienced first hand... Those were days of miracle and wonder and that such a process of experimentation ensued is understandable and was probably inevitable, given the amazing bounty and giddy heights to which the country had at that time thus far propelled itself... I'm just saying the inevitable *progression* can clearly be seen to be ending badly now, all around us.. or is at least approaching the nadir of its cycle. At least in Calif. But I believe ever in the possibility of renewal, when the old wisdoms will be rediscovered as new, to be claimed, worn, and wielded by the coming generations as their own... Because Other People's Money *is* going to be run out of. Well, unless the productivity fairy really kicks it into high gear soon and thus saves all our asses, so that half the population can be sustained as druggies and pot growers and nevertheless eat and be housed. Failing that, tough times will inevitably descend, and they may hang around a while, but they won't last forever. Because tough people will.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I don't have the data in front of me, but as I remember the original NS999 had battery failure on both ends of the usage spectrum. Battery drain followed by high current inrush. I'm not the battery expert. I understand LABs suffer cycle life reduction living in such an environ. I don't remember any mention of it being stranded
    25 Aug 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    A back of the napkin fuel consumption estimate for an EMD SW is up to 140,000 gallons of fuel per year assuming 24/7 operations; 80% idle time at 2.5 gal/hr and 20% work time at 70 gal/hr.

     

    That ties pretty well to estimates I've read that the average switcher burns 100,000 gallons of fuel per year.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    The only clear duty cycle estimates I've seen say that the average switcher idles 80% of the time. In an earlier comment I noted that the back of napkin fuel use would be 140,000 for 24/7/265, but the numbers I've read indicate an average of closer to 100,000 GPY.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks.

     

    Just thinking about the articles I've seen for fork trucks and such where, obviously, understanding usage patterns is important for appropriate energy storage selection. Just one of the factors but an important one. Pretty true of all energy storage apps.

     

    I'd never seen anything that mentioned usage patterns for yard locomotives.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Holy Cow! Simply unreal!
    25 Aug 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "Awww...now you can't do that to some poor kid. Keep him back a year just because he can't read, or write on the level he/she is supposed to be graduating?"

     

    :-) Quite a few city school systems and other political jurisdictions agreed with that philosophy for multiple decades. Or, at least appear to have based on news reports about students granted HS diplomas they could not read. Read several such stories back in the '70s.
    25 Aug 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    You will enjoy my new book, No More Faceplants, on a lot of levels. It's about why we defeat ourselves, based on 65 years of scientific research taking place in 50 countries. I'm one of the researchers in the field.

     

    In summary, at 50,000 feet: What drives our lives is seeking emotional safety. We do this by how we manage our relationships, attachments, with ourselves and our relationships with others.

     

    Every one has a very distinct 'attachment strategy'.

     

    Some people have attachment strategies that are self defeating (insecure) and some people have attachment strategies that are secure.

     

    Being secure, attaching securely, is NOT about doing things that feel good.

     

    It's about doing things and relating to others in ways that help you love and admire yourself, love and admire others, as appropriate, and be able to accept the love and admiration of others. This is a tall order that can take a long time to achieve.

     

    Self esteem was an early try at understanding this and is a bankrupt idea.

     

    People seeking the easy way out in life by trying to always do things that feel good, eventually are crushed by all the things they didn't face up to and do.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    I just checked Amazon and your book apparently isn't out yet, although Barnes & Noble has a pre-order available. Please be sure to share a link when it's ready to go.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    TD, Beautifully, incisively stated. And ouch, that last sentence...Way too close to be coinkadink. Was I an unknowing test subject in your study?
    25 Aug 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    Not out till 9/21.

     

    I will advise you all, and will write some blogs on why and how we defeat our selves as investors.

     

    Thanks for trying to look it up.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    You've taken the time to read my deepest thoughts and I figure the least I can do is return the favor.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.

     

    People who read the book always ask me how could I have written it about them.

     

    I truly look forward to sharing this with you guys. It will help at home, at work and when making investment decisions.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    I'll be buying Thotdoc - sounds like an excellent read is in store.

     

    "... all the things they didn't face up to and do".

     

    Close to home, that one. I did well on the "face up to" part (especially as I matured), but missed on occasion (and still do I think) on the "and do" part.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc,

     

    Congratulations on your new book. Much continued success.

     

    Is the back cover a mirror?
    25 Aug 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    Thank you.

     

    That would be great.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc, Really ... faceplants can be avoided? Sign me up...
    25 Aug 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Me too, though it's probably too late... My face already looks like silly-putty just lifted from a hot gravel road...
    25 Aug 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    OT---anyone long ITB? If so, good job. Been watching it for a couple months. I've got a growing number of data pts which say that housing is finally looking better in a growing number of mkts. Even got 2 friends who are becoming realtors in two different parts of the country; they see the same upticks.

     

    Wouldn't that be great for the overall economy. The industry that lead us into this mess helps get us out of it.
    24 Aug 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Wouldn't that be great for the overall economy. The industry that lead us into this mess helps get us out of it."

     

    I don't think the institution that resides in DC is classified as an industry. Housing is a symptom.
    24 Aug 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Quite right. Housing was not the bullet that might shoot the world economy in the head. That would be the unregulated, unreserved derivatives market. Default is not allowed anymore and assets can't be marked to market. It is why we are where we are and Greece, PIIGS are so important to hold up.

     

    No, housing, worldwide, was just the fingered that pulled the trigger and we are all now feverishly trying to keep that bullet chambered.
    24 Aug 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Housing was a bubble produced by a tremendous expansion of the money supply available to purchase housing via exotic mortgages, non-existent qualifying standards, low down-payments, government quarantees, securitization, etc.

     

    If a 'housing recovery' does not involve rising prices and is not just a repeat of the bubble symptoms that inevitably lead to the last bust then I'm all for it.

     

    But colour me very skeptical.

     

    D
    24 Aug 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The Federal laws, policies, and regulatory controls which enabled (I think created) the last bubble are still on the books...

     

    It would be insane to expect the same conditions to produce a different outcome without drastic changes to those conditions.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Cover it up, spread it around to the tax payers and inflate it away. Leave most of the old guard in place.

     

    All in favor? Yeah YEAH yeah yeAH...............

     

    Against? (crickets chirping)

     

    Motion is passed.

     

    Seems "The solution to pollution is dilution" applies here as well.
    24 Aug 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Don't fret. Li-on has several disadvantages which are: 1) they're expensive 2) don't discharge well under heavy amp load 4) don't have good DCA for regen braking 3) following on with the DCA topic, they get really hot (might burn) with high amp load 4) chemistry is known to break down with high heat. 5) cycle life diminishes with heat 6) not easy to keep the string in balance without additional BMS components

     

    Did I mention ... they are really expensive?
    24 Aug 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    DRich---lol. Vani should send them a My Condolences card, with a "call me when the grant money runs out" note.
    24 Aug 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    >DRich. Hope so.

     

    Corvus Energy FAQ:
    The NMC chemistry is considered one of the safest lithium batteries available. Additionally Corvus Energy has integrated a unique Battery Management System (BMS) that manages voltage, current and temperature in order to keep the battery in a safe working mode at all times. The battery is equipped with a CanBus communication port, controlling external system components to create an inherently safe system.

     

    http://bit.ly/QzP97w
    24 Aug 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Base on what is stated, " The Battery Management System (BMS) of Corvus Energy is a proprietary system which works automatically to equalize all cells in a pack. Electronics transfer any excess of energy from above specification cell to the below specifications cells in the battery pack." this is a very complex and expensive battery system. It sounds like that BMS is monitoring and controlling each individual cells inside the battery pack. That also implies the there are more than two battery terminals on the battery pack. A third connector is required for BMS to perform power switching between cells. No, this cannot be true. It is just too complicated and expensive product to be widely adopted. PbC is far superior in comparison. jmho.
    24 Aug 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Total agreement and the suspicion they choose the Enersys PC1800 initially demonstrates their lack of knowledge when it comes to energy/power storage...
    24 Aug 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Rats! no edit function. I was in agreement with Ishikawa. The PbC does most of what the Corvus BMS does only it does it naturally. This is the true beauty of the PbC (KIAS)...
    24 Aug 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10213) | Send Message
     
    "2) don't discharge well under heavy amp load 4) don't have good DCA for regen braking 3) following on with the DCA topic, they get really hot (might burn) with high amp load"

     

    Could you quantify with numbers?
    Some lithium chemistry has extremely high charge and discharge rates, 10C and up, and low internal heating due to low internal resistance. A123, Altairnano, and Toshiba SCIB all come to mind. They also don't have the extreme voltage drop that is characteristic of PbC.
    25 Aug 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Bunkum. Omitting the GM hardened lab getting blown to smithereens, Volts igniting...you're spreading drivel that's not tolerable in this column.

     

    Perhaps you can charge that thought in 50 milliseconds, or discharge it.
    25 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    I'd rather have comments from the silver snake.
    25 Aug 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >jrp3 ... Yes, I could but for you .... I've got better us of my time. Prove to me I misspoke with the data to back it up.

     

    For the rails, we're talking 200 amps in common usage. By NCS testing, no Li-on chemistry passed. The PbC has been tested to 400 amps without failure and was stopped because more was not deemed practical or needed. In a power battery, the capacitance characteristic of the PbC is an advantage Li-on doesn't possess.
    25 Aug 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19343) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc: "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig"

     

    Having again watched "Babe" last night, it might be a "dog"? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2664) | Send Message
     
    "Don't worry, the software controlled computer driven BMS will take care of everything!"

     

    Right up to the time it doesn't. I've been there and seen the results of "software failure" many times.

     

    One system I remember would lose track of the position of a moving part and "bite off" the part when it hiccuped. The solution was to build in a "break point", kinda like a mechanical fuse, which would break cleanly and so protect other equipment from collateral damage! Fixing the complex, multiple processor control system was too expensive. Pity the poor end customer.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Redundancy is one way to control failure. Another way is to to control the magnitude of the failure, as you suggest. Shear pins, resettable overload clutches, mechanical back-ups that impede directional forces gone wrong etc.

     

    A good designer always designs in back-up methods that assume the system will fail to mitigate the losses that occur as a result of the mode(s) of failure. Often these can be close to free. After thoughts cost far more even after the cost of the first event is taken into account.

     

    Choose wisely as the many solutions to minimize the loss associated with every failure mode has a wide range of implementation costs. The most expensive being not recognizing the system can and often will fail and what the ramifications will be when it does.

     

    PFMEA's are the place to capture the thought process and record it for the multitude of people working with the system designed or like systems. Good tool.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Here are a few specs for the battery pack being supplied to JR freight for their just released commercial hybrid loco. 0-45 deg. C = 32-113 deg. F. Operating range voltage not so stable.

     

    http://bit.ly/PdCtc1
    25 Aug 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10213) | Send Message
     
    The only "drivel" is pretending that "Volts" catch fire and that an accident in a test lab with an experimental battery is at all relevant to the real world. A single Volt, three weeks after a crash test caught fire. A crash test I would add that ICE's go through with an empty gas tank. No other Volt has caught fire from the battery, either in testing or real world usage.
    Not one single production EV or hybrid has had a battery explode during a crash in the real world that I'm aware of. The high speed BYD crash did result in a fire from a high power short but the pack did not explode.
    26 Aug 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I profess to know tiddly winks about battery technology, but:

     

    How convenient for you to sidestep DRich's answer to your question about how the PbC can reach 400 amps, without failing. How convenient that you ignore how the PbC can "react" within 50 milliseconds; two to four times faster than lithium.

     

    How convenient for you to write contentious hokum completely ignoring what a battery novice like me reported in my Notes And More From The June 21 Shareholders Conference. And in that insta/article how I wrote about many issues in which Axion faces an uphill battle toward commercialization.

     

    How convenient for you to ignore how Norfolk Southern has tested every other battery out there, and PbC is the chosen battery for retrofitting yard switchers and OTR locomotives.

     

    How convenient for you to forget the unattended Fisker Karma nearly burning someone's house down.

     

    How convenient for you to ignore Lux Reports, Pike Reports, the findings and projection of Johnson Controls about how few pure EVs will ever hit the market, even years from now; a very low percentage against hybrids and ICEs.

     

    How convenient for you to omit how many lithium battery companies have gone bankrupt.

     

    How convenient for you to omit understanding Tesla's balance sheet, how AONE's "huge" success of selling every battery they make for a loss, has now lead to a very controversial debate about how your tax dollars are going to fund Chinese-operated Wanxiang of taking over the company that you so relish.

     

    Lithium batteries, for autos or the grid are inherently dangerous to make, dangerous to use, as well as expensive use.

     

    Your twisting facts and throwing false information around in this APC should not be tolerated.

     

    All questions are welcomed here; as I have questioned Axion Power from as recently as two days ago, about how I cautioned others about getting too excited about any immediate impact from Rosewater's HUB, all the way back to four years ago when JP and I butted heads about Ener1.

     

    We know what happened not too longer after.

     

    You are a troll, and your intention is to disrupt and create havoc, twist facts, throw as best you can the APCs into every which way of tangential obfuscation.

     

    I do not believe you own Axion, either. Why would you? If all you bring to the table are negative and highly suspect comments.

     

    I suggest for you either to rethink how you word things, to be less combative, to ask questions in a more benign and contributive fashion, in which many of the battery geeks here will freely, willingly, and helpfully answer, as they have for over a year.

     

    If you do not change, I will personally go in, play whack-a-mole, and wipe out all of your comments altogether.

     

    Last warning.
    26 Aug 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10213) | Send Message
     
    Do whatever you wish, you obviously have little use for factual data if it contradicts your closely held beliefs. How convenient that you ignored the facts I just posted which contradicted your inaccuracies. How convenient you then went on to post more misdirection, i.e. Fisker Karma fires, which had nothing to do with the battery but were traced to a faulty cooling fan in the front of the vehicle, completely removed from the battery pack. You don't care about the facts as long as you can twist them for your own use. Fact is as much as you would wish it to be true EV and hybrid battery packs simply do not explode or catch fire in real world use, period. You can delete this post and all my others but that fact will still remain true.

     

    There was no "contentious hokum" from me, I asked DRich for data backing his claims, as usual he chose not to provide any.
    Here is my exact post, please point out what was so offensive:

     

    "Could you quantify with numbers?
    Some lithium chemistry has extremely high charge and discharge rates, 10C and up, and low internal heating due to low internal resistance. A123, Altairnano, and Toshiba SCIB all come to mind. They also don't have the extreme voltage drop that is characteristic of PbC. "

     

    Now if you have a list of all the batteries that NS has tested and their results I'd like to see if they really tested every battery out there. Frankly I would not blame them if they didn't bother with some that were currently seen as too expensive for their application, but that's not the same as testing every battery available, or assuming that no other battery can meet the demands.
    I get 200 amps out of my 100ah LiFePO4 cells in most of my daily driving and burst of up to 550 amps, and they are not high C rate cells. Here is a description of the SCIB battery I referenced:

     

    "An SCiB 20Ah cell charged with an 80Ah current will reach 80% of capacity in 15 minutes and 95% in an additional 3 minutes. The SCiB generates little heat even during this fast recharging, eliminating the need for power to cool the battery module. Moreover, the full charge-discharge cycle for SCiB is 4,000 times, more than 2.5 times that of other Li-ion batteries. "

     

    That's a 4C charge rate, which means in a 100ah configuration it can charge at 400 amps. Discharge rates will be even higher. Did NS test a SCIB battery?

     

    Finally, I am an Axion shareholder and hope the technology is as good as promised, but I also see the potential short comings of the technology, as well as the potential benefits of other technologies. Maybe because my cost basis in Axion is so much lower than many of you I can have a more rational approach to the stock, while you seem to take any criticism as a personal attack.
    28 Aug 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Anybody else get really confused for a moment about why "Oatmeal" would want to raise a paltry $1.85M for (TSLA)? Then I turned my phone over and the last word of the headline at Fox News (now changed -- the original is in the URL).

     

    http://fxn.ws/NPprgq
    24 Aug 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Unless things go perfect they can have an even bigger museum in Fremont, CA.
    24 Aug 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    Dual purpose facility – museum and homeless shelter?
    25 Aug 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... A museum to Tesla, the man, in Fremont, CA would be an abomination to one of America's greatest innovators. We owe the man a large debt of gratitude ... and that car isn't up to bearing the name.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    That was the original Camaro/Firebird plant. The next one was in St. Therese Canada.

     

    One of the smartest things T did was working with TSLA to get them out of the plant without too much of a public relations nightmare. The plant was joint GM/T when GM pulled out and T pretty much didn't need the capacity. Cali. is far more important to T than it is to GM when it comes to sales. I think that was part of the investment and selection decision for their relationship with TSLA.
    25 Aug 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30620) | Send Message
     
    The back story I've heard is that Freemont was TM's biggest PR albatross and they would have done almost anything to be shed of the nightmare.

     

    Their deal with TSLA was sheer genius. They invested $50 million in TSLA's stock; promptly got their $50 million back as the purchase price for the Freemont plant after stripping several hundred acres of undeveloped land out for themselves; shed their biggest PR problem and locked in TSLA to build powertrains for the RAV4 EV which Toyota figures will be a limited production California halo car.

     

    I always have to laugh when EVangelicals wax poetic on TM's reliance on TSLA's engineering prowess. As near as I can tell throwing a few million bucks at Tesla is far cheaper than using their own engineers to design a TM class electric drivetrain and they just picked the cheapest path while wrapping it in beautifully engineered greenwash.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yep.

     

    But a few people will be glad to have the jobs for a couple years. Irrespective of what the US tax payer put in.

     

    T was pretty shrewd.
    25 Aug 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Not the first time I'm posted on Greensmith ... at the least they write good PRs ... and it looks like they're aggressive at the very least.

     

    Say they're battery agnostic, but this could be like my guess about Princeton Power ... PowerCube competitor may make them not very interested in offering the PbC version.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nmxgyw

     

    "Greensmith now providing distributed energy storage systems to fourteen customers, including eight electric utilities
    Visit http://bit.ly/QAz9Ch for further information

     

    An innovative storage solution to integrate renewable energy generation and improve grid stability

     

    Submitted on 08/24/12, 08:24 AM"
    24 Aug 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4756) | Send Message
     
    "Not the first time I'm posted on Greensmith ... at the least they write good PRs ... and it looks like they're aggressive at the very least."

     

    Thanks for posting about the company again, William. It reminded me that I had not passed along Greensmith's response to an inquiry I submitted to them following your first post on the co. which noted a 5kW residential system.

     

    Greensmith inverters were not capable of handling PbCs at that time. The 5kW system met applicable IEEE standards but lacked UL cert at the time.
    24 Aug 2012, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Toronto Hydropower grid storage paper. Lots of good data. Axion mentioned page 145 (nothing special).

     

    Includes a study by a subcontractor and what TH is up to and what they are thinking.

     

    http://bit.ly/Qc2oR8
    24 Aug 2012, 10:46 PM