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  • Axion Power Concentrator 145: Aug. 25, 2012: Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012 224 comments
    Aug 26, 2012 10:50 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012

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    IMPORTANT UPDATE:

    Axion Power Market Cap and Share Count:

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    Events that should have increased Market Cap siginifcantly over the past two years:

    1. NS in June 2010
    2. BMW in September 2010
    3. The toll contract in March 2011
    4. The DOE grant application with GM in April 2011
    5. The PJM connection in November 2011
    6. The toll contract extension in March 2012
    7. Completion of BMW testing
    8. The first NS battery order

    Sellside dynamic that pushed the market cap down into current cheap levels over the past two years:
    Fursa and liquidation trust - 3.3 million starting in April 2010
    Special Situations - 8.7 million shares starting March 2011
    Quercus Trust - 8.6 million shares starting March 2011

    Plus up to 8.2 million shares of selling by the Estate of James Winner that started sometime after his death in September 2010 - http://bit.ly/QaR9by.

    Plus up to 7.2 million shares that Manatuck Hill "might" have been sold in connection with a management change in Q1 of this year.

    Blackrock started with 7.15 million shares and reported sales of 2 million shares before it fell off the radar.

    Most of these sellers are ancient history because they're either out of stock or almost out of stock. As near as I can tell, there's nobody left that holds large enough blocks to push the market around. I find the current volume spike particularly encouraging because it seems to be a final blow out of the last shares remaining in weak hands.

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    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated through Friday close Aug. 24th)

    (click to enlarge)

    I don't normally send updates mid-week but the new volume graph is important because the 10-day average broke 600,000 yesterday and we're within a day or two of a break-through where the 50-day will penetrate up through the 200-day. There's been a fairly consistent volume resistance in the 500,000 share range for a couple years and the 600,000 figure is a clear penetration. We've only had three other instances where the 50-day penetrated up through the 200-day. One was a tiny blip in August of last year that didn't last long, but the other two were large and sustained volume surges.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through Friday close Aug. 24th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Graph:

    (updated Aug. 21st)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (224)
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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    You're doing good work APH!

     

    Many thanks for the effort and results!

     

    HardToLove
    25 Aug 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Is item #6, the toll contract extension, correct as to date? Was it really 2011, or was it 2012? If 2011, I can't believe that much time has passed... It's all starting to become a blur...
    25 Aug 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    Good work indeed, APH.

     

    Good catch 481'. As I remember it, the toll contract was realized in March 2011 and extension in March 2012. But, shouldn't the list include Washington Navy Yard Net Zero contract award in January 2012? If so, that would become item #6 and all that follow renumbered.
    25 Aug 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Concur, and also maybe the 150K phase 1 doe grant?
    25 Aug 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    The 2011 date is a typo, but it was originally mine. I didn't include either the DOE grant or the Navy Yard as line items because I don't see either as price moving events.
    26 Aug 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "I didn't include either the DOE grant or the Navy Yard as line items because I don't see either as price moving events."

     

    The market cap chart at the top of this APC suggests announcement of the Navy Yard contract did move price. It was the first publicly announced sale of PbC products to an end-user and as such suggested AXPW was on the cusp of crossing the chasm with PbCs to commerciality.
    26 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    I believe the January price rise was a supply and demand event, but reasonable men could disagree.
    26 Aug 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    TG also made several comments in the CC that the Navy Yard project, while not being a large sale, has had impact on their sales discussions because potential customers can now see one in use by an end user and not just the larger PowerCube that Axion built on site.
    26 Aug 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    You know what would be nice (other than AXPW @ $3)? the text "[New]" attached to new comments instead of the "New" graphic image. Then I could just search for [new] and jump to each new comment instead of scrolling. Am I missing a feature that lets us jump to the next new comment?
    25 Aug 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Tim: "Am I missing a feature that lets us jump to the next new comment?"

     

    No. I also like the suggestion of "new" as a text item. You could send it to support@seekingalpha.com but ...

     

    I requested a couple years back that they 1) fix the "failure to properly flag" and 2) add a "jump to next new comment" function.

     

    No effort on # 2 AFAICT and maybe some progress (recently?) on #1, but whatever they may have done doesn't fix all conditions.

     

    Wtb, IIRC, posted an apparent work around for #1.

     

    So I don't know how much luck you'd have getting them to implement your suggestion and if they did, the "failure to flag" would still bite you.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Reader Digest version: Use Reload feature after you post any comment. While you will see/repeat a few comments marked as new that you saw (as new) just before commenting, you will capture the ones that were made WHILE you were editing your comment (or answering the phone or off getting a sandwich before you submitted the comment.) This works because the URL contains the "first new comment number" and you want to reuse that "identifier"
    26 Aug 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I must admit that I didn't realize the new flag was set to the datetime of my post and I was missing all the new messages in between. I have been refreshing now for a couple months. What I am after is a way to jump to the next new message instead of having to scroll. My screen is 1024x768 so thats a lot of scrolls! (gone are the days of my multi-monitor 40 acre pixel ranch).

     

    Anyway, I sent out the request and we shall see if I too get ignored...
    26 Aug 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Although you cannot search a page for "new comment" you can search the page for date: "26 Aug" will narrow it down to all of today's posts.

     

    Or "26 Aug, 06" Will catch the last few posts of the six o'clock hour.

     

    Not quite as handy, but still better than scanning 200 posts and checking their dates manually.
    26 Aug 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    A few people may not know that you can hit the space bar to scroll down a page. I can go pretty fast between hitting the space bar and "glancing" for something orange. I will overshoot at times, but usually just by one page.

     

    Also if you're not using some type of ad-blocker browser extension to read SA, you really need to figure out how to do that. I use adblock-plus with Chrome, but it's also available for Firefox.
    http://bit.ly/NWB459
    27 Aug 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Didn't know about the space bar trick ..
    27 Aug 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "A few people may not know that you can hit the space bar to scroll down a page."

     

    Nice tip. Thanks.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    The space bar is handy for navigating the My Feed SA page. Since the change that only reports updated instablogs after all the "main articles," and if you have a fair number of main articles with unread comments, you have to click the More a number of times, but you also have to scroll as well. So I scroll with the left hand on the space bar and click with the right hand and it makes it much faster and also slightly less annoying to have to do so.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Well...so much for my asking Fidelity to look into the AXPW symbol error.
    Does't anyone take ownership anymore and not just point the finger???

     

    Fidelity
    To: JOSEPH
    Topic:Account services and features
    Subject:Response to your Recent Inquiry <<#1106390-30160...
    Date: 08/23/2012 04:30 PM EDT
    Attachment(s):
    Message:

     

    Thank you for taking the time to contact Fidelity regarding the Axion Power International news article on Fidelity.com. I appreciate the opportunity to assist you today.

     

    The news article on Fidelity.com are provided by third party vendors, and we do not have access to edit these articles.

     

    We appreciate your business. I hope you enjoy the rest of your week.

     

    Sincerely,
    Caroline Payne
    Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, member NYSE, SIPC

     

    --- Original Message ---
    From: "Mr. JOSEPH "
    Received: 8/23/12 1:17:55 PM EDT
    To: Fidelity
    Topic: Account services and features
    Attachments:
    Subject: Please Correct symbol in article...***AXPW***-FMR Article

     

    Beleaguered Battery Maker Soon to Get a Jolt
    By John Petersen
    THESTREET.COM -- 5:41 PM ET 08/22/12
    NEW YORK (TheStreet (Symbol : TST)) -- Investors and fishermen have three favorite stories: the trophy they landed, the beauty that got away and the monster they've been watching in a favorite fishing spot.
    For my inaugural article on TheStreet (Symbol : TST

     

    Loading...
    I'm going to share my perspective on Axion Power International (Symbol : AXPW), a micro-cap battery-technology developer with an ugly price history that obscures a brilliant future.
    I'm not a disinterested observer when it comes to Axion (Symbol : AXIH).
    25 Aug 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    magounsq.

     

    "The news article on Fidelity.com are provided by third party vendors, and we do not have access to edit these articles."

     

    Yes but it was Fidelity's compiler that found the wrong symbol. Maybe we could get in contact with the web master (or who ever owns that script) as I am certain they would like to know they mangled the article...
    25 Aug 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Tim

     

    on it again...we'll see.
    I'll be a little PITA...in case they get another "third party" vendor article re AXPW.
    25 Aug 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Good luck and thanks for making chase on this...
    26 Aug 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    OT---Brings up an interesting way to maybe make a really good percentage return every now and then--play the "ticker error" trade. Maybe one of the software developers here could write an app for it.

     

    Some risk/reward tradeoffs: the biggest %age moves may be in stks that are hard or risky to short, like AXIH ($10mil mkt cap, thinly traded). But I've seen mentions of ticker errors on CNBC every so often, and if it is related to big news about a big company, where there are many investors and traders in the stk, but the ticker is wrong, the resulting orders can briefly overwhelm even a mid-cap stk. Which would be a safer play.

     

    A little dreaming actually related to investing!
    26 Aug 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Tim

     

    Thanks for your 'web master' suggestion...I will follow up if they do not.

     

    Fidelity to me...
    "I have forwarded your comments regarding the third party news article from Fidelity.com to our web developers and senior management for review. Fidelity takes customer feedback very seriously. Although management is unable to act on every customer comment, please be assured that your comments are being heard.

     

    We appreciate your loyal business. I hope you have a great day.

     

    Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC
    26 Aug 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Wired.com article on hydraulic hybrids that should interest those interested in regen braking and heavy hybrids.

     

    http://bit.ly/SC0ZEw

     

    “The best diesel-electric hybrid can only recover 25 percent of the braking energy. The limitations are that you just can’t charge the batteries fast enough to take all the potential energy that’s available in a braking event. You can charge them at maximum rate and the rest of the energy goes out as heat.”

     

    In some applications, such as a city bus that is constantly slowing and accelerating, a hydraulic system allows for greater, and faster, accumulation of energy.

     

    “With hydraulic, we’re able to recover 75 percent of the braking energy to be utilized for the next launch event,” Smith said. . . .

     

    Consider that the average city bus travels 37,000 miles per year. That means the average hydraulic hybrid would save more than 5,800 gallons of diesel fuel each year over a conventional diesel. By comparison, a Toyota Prius saves about 240 gallons of gas over a conventional Camry.

     

    Measured across a fleet of buses, that’s a tremendous savings for cash-strapped transit authorities, which generally rely upon federal assistance to buy vehicles. Altair’s design is expected to have a slightly higher up-front cost over conventional diesels but will cost more than $100,000 less than a diesel-electric. Plus, hydraulic hybrids don’t require anything a typical bus barn or fleet manager doesn’t already have in terms of tools or training.
    25 Aug 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    D_lane,
    Thanks for the article. We looked at a similar system a while back that was being used for garbage trucks. Same idea, and they basically found the same thing, when you are breaking a large vehicle like that repeatedly, the batteries just can't charge fast enough for a battery hybrid to collect all the energy. But a hydraulic hybrid could on a garbage truck as well.
    25 Aug 2012, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "the batteries just can't charge fast enough for a battery hybrid to collect all the energy."

     

    :-) Question is, Did they try PbC batteries?
    25 Aug 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    And, if we look at the link Iindelco provide in #144 here,

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    about the Yuasa Li-ion batteries for JR Freight's mass-produced hybrid locomotive,

     

    http://bit.ly/PdCtc1

     

    we find "1. High current charge/discharge performance
    The maximum current capacity is 600A and the Direct current capacity is 100A, which ensures stable charge and discharge performance".

     

    First I don't know what the meaning of "maximum ... 600A" and then "Direct current ... 100A" means. Is this just a limited duration peak rate (600A) and a "steady-state" rate (100A)?

     

    Does this make this battery possibly a suitable candidate for the buses and garbage trucks (ignoring the cost, which I assume to be "large")?

     

    More directly to D-inv's question, I suspect PbC was not tried since Axion doesn't have the production capacity and market reach and perceived stability yet of the large battery firms, as well as not being "home grown".

     

    But now that we have a battery claiming 600A, I sure wish Axion had explored those upper bounds beyond the 400A rate. Might not have helped since the Yuasa specs didn't provide SOC, expected cycles under various loads (i.e. DOD, SOC, etc.), duration of acceptance of 600A, ...

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... To my novice eye, those specs are fairly meaningless. Is that 600A a break-rotor ratings or DCA? Is that 100A continuous current draw (would imply battery only service is very light duty or engine assist) or DCA? It is the type of configuration I like very much and I think will become standard.

     

    My opinion, Li-on will be seen in this demonstrator mode until railroads start looking hard at cost. Even with fuel savings I've seen, there will be no payback in typical rebuild cycles (unless these units can go 15-20 yrs. maintenance free) unless the pollution fines avoided are factored in. I hope the NS999 is put on the road sometime soon and works the way we all think it might so Axion can catch some of the share of the first wave in hybridization because it will be 5-8 year until wave 2 ... barring stellar results. The PbC appears to be about 2 years behind the curve.
    26 Aug 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich.

     

    I wish your assessment had not been 2 years behind the curve though. There are cases where "timing is everything" and I hope we've not missed our chance in this space.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... It is the price of the original NS999 failure combined with the fact that Axion was not available for initial consideration. Gotta work with what ya got. Now Norfolk dragging the roll-out time line is a shame but I point to corporate politics, vendor bias & bad economy for that.
    26 Aug 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    DRich, "To my novice eye, those specs are fairly meaningless."

     

    I'd agree. As you suggest if one had to guess it could be steady state continuous draw and a peak allowable current for some very short duration.

     

    As for what's acceptable to the railroads. I think it depends on the economics given the life cycle cost of the batteries. As an example, If the batteries only lasted 10 years with a payback of 5 years I could imagine a design with a locomotive and battery racking system that allowed battery swaps in a day no problem. I'd look more toward fuel costs and various energy storage costs to see where this plays out.

     

    As for the PBC battery. Given the action occurring in many sectors with government stimulus fund and a focus on green I think your two years late makes sense. Fortunately we are being tested, even though it's been more of an uphill battery than for lithium ion, so the technology will prove itself or it will not. The market will make room if it's as good as we think it is for certain apps. And the plan Axion has will allow it to scale as fast as the market wants it to once the tech. and economics are proven.

     

    For the long timers the current price is reflected in the delay (plus/minus). For the newcomers of the last few years it could be that this delay is appreciated. The timing is everything thought.
    26 Aug 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "More directly to D-inv's question, I suspect PbC was not tried since Axion doesn't have the production capacity and market reach and perceived stability yet of the large battery firms, ...".

     

    Presumably, Dantam is working hard to educate the truck/bus OEM community re-PbC performance characteristics.

     

    Recalling that the GM-Axion grant proposal cited a PbC capacitance of 13,000 farads and applying the definition, F = farad = 1 amp second at one watt, one can compute a DCA maximum for the battery. Assuming a 16V battery, capacitance of 13,000 F implies current absorption potential in the first second of 812.5 amps.

     

    :-) Now that I have driven the electrical engineers to distraction with my ignorance I will retire from the field for a bit.
    26 Aug 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure that I agree with your assessment that Axion is behind the curve. Everything I've read about the lithium-ion hybrids indicates that they've followed the same "let's build one and see how it works" development cycle that NS tried in 2009 with the original NS 999.

     

    After the first failure, NS shifted from putting something, anything, on the rails to a more deliberate and focused technology development program that did the laboratory work first, before putting it on wheels.

     

    When it comes to testing the durability and performance characteristics of a battery, a well-equipped laboratory provides far more information than a rolling prototype because a laboratory can create loads that would be almost impossible to duplicate in the real world.

     

    That's why the automakers spend a couple years in the battery laboratory before they even think of putting a battery in a car.

     

    Unlike BMW which did their work and then sent their results to a third-party for confirmation, NS has been conducting double redundant testing since 2010. I think it's a safe bet that they know far more about how the NS 999 will perform than JR Freight does.

     

    US railroads don't have 5 to 8 years to find and implement a solution because they're staring down the barrel of a 2015 effective date on the new EPA regulations. Unless they want to try and get away with a "greenwash compliance show," they'll need to have a statistically valid fleet on the rails throughout the country within three years.
    26 Aug 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    For those thinking about hydraulic vs electric energy storage for SS on large vehicles here's an older article on GE's efforts on buses using electric energy storage. Could be a starting point to dig deeper or perhaps a few data points embedded are of interest.

     

    http://bit.ly/RmAWzy
    26 Aug 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    I would assume not. The end users (in this case a couple cities) were just comparing what was on the market at the time. They didn't look at things like batteries they just looked at garbage truck A from one company vs garbage truck B from another, and compared which was going to cost them less money in the long run to use, assuming the other functions are the same. For something like that you have to deal with the garbage truck makers and prove to them that they will have a better product to sell if they use the PbC.
    26 Aug 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    This gets back to a question I asked a while back. For the Li-ion battery hybrid that is being discussed, it is my understanding that it is a design that is being sold by a company selling hybrid locomotives to the rail industry (much like RailPower did with the Green Goat). In the case of NS999, this is NSC's own electric switcher that they are refurbishing with PbC batteries after exhausted studies. My question, is whether the other railroad companies can/will do the same? Do they all have the facilities to rebuild their switchers from diesel to battery power, or are they going to want to buy a finished product, like the Green Goat was, with the batteries already figured into the cost of the final product?
    26 Aug 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Only the major locomotive suppliers have the ability to manufacture and deliver the primary rail platforms for locomotives. These include GE and EMD (or whatever they are called now). Even Railpower Green Goats were built on old locomotive platforms. And why not. Once rebuilt they almost last forever while the power plants can be optimized to new tech.

     

    From what I've seen the tier one rails have their own shops to do maintenance, rebuilds and some level of upgrades/development. All of them have varying needs and thus different strategies. The lesser short line railroads generally don't have the same capabilities as the tier 1 railroads. Some of them take advantage of the service offerings from the tier 1's such as NS. If you go to the NS sites for their shops you will see them working on locomotive rebuilds and upgrades for short lines. Other companies have similar offerings.

     

    Most shops would not take on a program like the NS 999. Once development is done NS would probably offer the service to othes and even offer kits to shops that might like to do the integration on their own. Remember the others often have some of the same platforms so this is possible. Most wouldn't take on such a task. Doesn't make sense to have such overhead for smaller organizations to it's better to rent it out.

     

    Here is one initiative I saw today from a smaller rail co. that is installing a multi generator kit. There is some of this activity but it's most often better to leave it up to the companies with the right resources that are geared up to do it.

     

    http://bit.ly/U4d0AR
    26 Aug 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    I'm with D-inv. The wired.com article cites 25% braking energy recovery for the best batteries (presumably L-ion). Can anyone provide an educated guess on how much of that energy a PbC string would capture?
    26 Aug 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    >Labtech

     

    Yes, the hybrid system in the article is a series system from Parker Hannifan called RunWise. It is in garbage trucks in Miami and elsewhere and they are reporting almost 50% fuel savings. The other exciting part is the savings over lithium ion battery storage in initial expense. It may pay for itself in as little as 3 years.

     

    Eaton also has a hydraulic hybrid system for garbage trucks. I'm interested in investing in hybrid hydraulics but both Parker and Eaton are huge companies with minimal exposure.

     

    I found this from Pike Research in 2010: "Hydraulic hybrids will play a role in the marketplace, but Pike Research anticipates that this role will be with the bigger trucks, Class 6, 7, and 8 in specific niches. Hydraulic hybrids are also likely to be limited to some degree by job a truck does. For example, a hybrid electric refrigerated truck can run the compressors for the refrigerated box off battery electricity, reducing idle time, but can’t do the same with hydraulic systems. As a result, the hydraulic hybrids are likely to grow within specific niches (garbage trucks, inner-city delivery trucks, shuttle buses), but will likely find difficulty breaking out of those niches."
    26 Aug 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    D_Lane, You'd need more data.

     

    I do know that in the GE article they indicted the use of Ultracap/battery hybrids to get enough DCA. I suspect lithium ion would need the same support and that's why I would guess that you comments that lithium ion is the best is not accurate. Of coarse lithium ion can be tuned to be more of a power battery than an energy battery so some types would be better than others. That being said I'm guessing that some level of faradic energy storage complemented with chemical energy storage would be a better solution than just chemical. Hey NS likes the PBC battery for a reason it's all in one package like the Ulrabattery. And yet a bus application would be more sensitive to mass than a loco.

     

    So what's the best solution. Hydraulic in this case like with garbage trucks sounds like a good target to me. What battery/capacitor hybrids make sense? Don't know but I suspect Axion's going to be talking about it for a reason and I have good reason believe they will have plenty to talk about. I've worked with a lot of hydraulics and they are not a golden solution either. And even if they were for the worst case duty cycle/frequency high mass applications there will be a case where the mass is reduced or the time between stops in lengthened and a different balance of chemical /faradic energy storage will make more sense. The needs are very diverse and there is a big market to satisfy. If there wasn't we'd all just be driving the same vehicle.
    26 Aug 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    If you think about the laws of motion, the energy regenerated by stopping a locomotive and string of cars cannot exceed the energy required to accelerate the weight in the first place. So a battery powered system should always be in balance as long as the battery can absorb energy as quickly as it can deliver it.

     

    I don't know what percentage of the energy used to accelerate the NS 999 can be recovered in braking, but I'm very comfortable with the idea that it's way north of 25%.

     

    Hybrid trucks have a different set of rules because much of their forward momentum comes from the engine rather than the battery.
    26 Aug 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "Recalling that the GM-Axion grant proposal cited a PbC capacitance of 13,000 farads and applying the definition, F = farad = 1 amp second at one watt, one can compute a DCA maximum for the battery. Assuming a 16V battery, capacitance of 13,000 F implies current absorption potential in the first second of 812.5 amps."

     

    Errr. Didn't pay close enough attention in drafting there. Formula portion should have read F = farad = 1 amp second at one VOLT.

     

    Since watts = amps X volts, the F formula essentially equates farads and watts. Thus, maximum potential charge acceptance of the PbC is 13,000 watts per second which would imply a 0.5kW battery could be fully charged in 38.5 seconds. Something tells me internal resistance of the PbC quickly shortens service life of the battery if charged at 13kW sec.
    26 Aug 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    "...which would imply a 0.5kW battery could be fully charged in 38.5 seconds."

     

    D-Inv.... just for housekeeping, did you mean 0.5kW-*hour* battery?
    26 Aug 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys. Iindelco, I'd forgotten about ultracaps for a moment.
    But thats why I own MXWL.
    26 Aug 2012, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    More on hybrid hydraulics: Here is a start-up company doing truck retrofits using carbon fiber hydraulic accumulators.

     

    "At $19,995 for the hybrid retrofit, it provides a 2-3 year payback for stop-and-go drive cycles based on fuel and brake savings.

     

    Although electric hybrids are well proven, electric hybrid technology is limited in several ways:

     

    Cost.

     

    The cost of second generation batteries that can charge faster, go farther, and last longer are currently prohibitively expensive, ranging from $10,000 to over $40,000. Many battery systems are rated at 500 cycles—or about 18 months of daily charging before replacement is necessary. Equivalent hydraulic pump/motor and tanks cost $2,500.

     

    Charge time.

     

    Charge time not only impacts overall efficiency and utilization, but also how efficient the brake regeneration system is. Toyota currently estimates their brake regeneration system at 30 percent efficiency, while hydraulic brake energy regeneration efficiency is over 80 percent, since hydraulics are not limited by battery charge limits during the regeneration cycle.

     

    Battery Weight.

     

    Weight has a dramatic impact on overall transportation efficiency, and even lithium ion battery technologies add significant weight, ranging from 350 to well over 1,000 pounds. Equivalent storage in carbon fiber tanks weigh 75 pounds.

     

    Maintenance talent availability.

     

    Electric hybrid vehicles are highly complex and the DC power can be dangerous if not handled by specifically trained mechanics. There are not a large number of specifically trained mechanics in the US today, and the training requirements are significant. Most fleet mechanics already have training and a strong comfort level with hydraulic technology.

     

    http://bit.ly/PTlRV9
    26 Aug 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "...which would imply a 0.5kW battery could be fully charged in 38.5 seconds." <~~ D-inv

     

    "D-Inv.... just for housekeeping, did you mean 0.5kW-*hour* battery?"

     

    :-) Thanks for picking up on my mental misfire there. I've boloxed up labels and arithmetic again. I'll try again after getting something to eat.
    26 Aug 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "D-Inv.... just for housekeeping, did you mean 0.5kW-*hour* battery? "

     

    481', I clearly should have been computing charge times relative to a 0.5kWh battery but really spewed gibberish in commenting earlier on charge times.

     

    Rosewater Energy specs on PowerCubes/Hubs state that the Axion form 30HT- PbC is a 12V battery capable of storing 0.5kWh of energy. 0.5kW = 500 Watts; 1 hour contains 3,600 seconds; 500W X 3,600 seconds = 1,800,000 Watt seconds = 0.5kWh

     

    1,800,000 watt seconds (or farads) / 13,000 farads capacitance = 138.5 seconds charge time or 2.31 minutes assuming capacitance is constant. Since PbC voltage varies with the SOC, the charge acceptance rate likely does also.
    26 Aug 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    So then another possible reason that NSC might be taking things slow is that they have to decide not only if they want to go forward with rebuilding their own switchers to electric-PbC systems, but also have to consider how much added business that might bring into their Altoona shop for rebuilds for other rails, and whether they want to deal with the issue? Probably need to decide on how much they would charge for the service, and whether they would need more staff at Altoona to do this if things took off. Also makes sense why they were patenting part of the BMS and rebuild a while back. This could turn out to not only be a money saver for them for their own switchers, but a money maker for them providing rebuilds to the smaller rails.
    26 Aug 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,

     

    "Most shops would not take on a program like the NS 999. Once development is done NS would probably offer the service to others and even offer kits to shops that might like to do the integration on their own. Remember the others often have some of the same platforms so this is possible. Most wouldn't take on such a task. Doesn't make sense to have such overhead for smaller organizations to it's better to rent it out."

     

    Ah, so this might be another reason why it is taking NSC so much time to go forward. If you look at them just as an end user, then you would think they would want to get the NS999 out there as fast as possible once they have decided on the batteries. However, if they are also looking at this as a possible money making venture, then you see the bean counters coming into play. There need to be assessments made.
    How many retrofits might be booked by other companies?
    What is the BMS for rail worth, that they have added onto Axion's basic system?
    How many staff would need to be devoted to battery rebuilds? Does that involve more shifts? Union contracts?
    What is the parts supply for such a rebuild and how long to stockpile the parts?
    Etc, etc, etc?
    I can see why they wanted an exclusive head start before Axion could talk to any of the other big rail companies and I can see why they are unhappy that now that time is up. I wonder how much NSC could book in shop fees and sales of BMS systems if they were the only one who could do it for at least a year? Especially when everyone is facing the 2015 new standards. They might even get business from some of the other large railroads who need to reduce emissions in certain stations and won't have time to ramp up for rebuilds of their own in time.
    27 Aug 2012, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    The core BMS is the one Axion developed for the PowerCube. I'm sure that NS owns the specialized code to make that BMS function in a locomotive, but the core technology is not theirs.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Lab Tech ... The standard for a railroad product roll-out is to build a prototype, test it for a certain amount of time with evaluation crew, then send it out as a demonstrator to the origination railroad for use in everyday service for customer evaluation. The NS999 serves a dual purpose here. The next step is to build several more demonstrators to send out as advertising and different environmental/service conditions to see if there is interest. After that is production.

     

    The kit idea is a likely scenario but I would imagine that Norfolk Southern will be their own best customer. First because they developed it, second, it would be a definite competitive advantage product and third, other roads are already spending large amounts on other EPA compliant solutions .

     

    2015 is only 1, 2 at the most, budget planning cycles away. I hope it's possible to win original builds in the 1st wave of compliant solutions with other roads, but NSC alone could keep Axion busy for years. Other roads probably will continue to use their own train management hardware & software (though the industry is standardizing) when rebuild time rolls around and modifications would likely be needed to work with the NSC/Axion BMS. Like I've said before, if the NS999 works as well as we think it would not be beyond the pale to think the genset only or Li-on solutions gets tossed sooner than the 5 year rebuild cycle because adoption wouldn't be about EPA but reduced installation cost and fuel savings.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3430) | Send Message
     
    DR,

     

    What kind of RR hybrid market share to you hope the PbC to catch? Do you think Li-on will marginalize us over the next few years before the 2015 mandates? Also when you talk about another wave 5-8 years out, is that because you expect Li-on to make a technological and cost jump that will leave Lead permanently behind?

     

    I was thinking/hoping that hybrid sales will be significant well before the end of this decade and figured Axion would get a nice slice.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that NS is looking at two discrete applications, rather than one.

     

    The NS 999 is a battery powered switching locomotive that eliminates diesel fuel use in urban train yards. My back of the napkin estimates have about 2,000 switching units working in the US. Since all of those switchers work in areas where pollution considerations can be more important than economics and the availability of power for charging stations is a non-issue, I'd look for a very high penetration if the NS 999 performs as we hope it will. After all, it doesn't make much sense for a railroad to pay a premium price for a hybrid switcher if it can save more money with a pure battery powered locomotive.

     

    The long-haul locomotive that will be used to create hybrid trains is a more complex application that will require a good deal more study. It's also a far larger market with about 22,000 working locomotives in the US.
    27 Aug 2012, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I think NS should have had all their ducks in a row on this thing for some time so I have no idea what's holding them up. Management, the accountants, the shops/union and engineering have all had plentiful time to work this thing out. Once the decision to go forward was made it should just be a matter of fitting it in the shop. Maybe that's where the delay is. Some unexpected events? All I can figure is that it's this or their overall plans have changed on how the yard switcher and OTR regs will be met.

     

    Can't imagine really what the heck these guys are up to. They've spent a bundle in cash and reputation so you'd think they'd be all over it. Yes cautious, but they've already tested the heck out of the battery.

     

    Anyway, The primary motivation for this thing is NS needs but the shop/union and the accountants would be motivated to keep busy and spread this thing to others as/after NS's needs are met.
    27 Aug 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    While there are 22K long haul locomotives, NSC's prime territory seems uniquely suited to taking advantage of the technology. CSX covers much of the same general area. Plains areas, not so much. As for hybrid trains, it will be very interesting to see how many PbC engines will be used in a "string," but I don't think anyone has suggested it will be anywhere near even half.

     

    Wonder if we'll ever see the day where engine "strings" are routinely replaced once or more on certain routes. Gotta keep those programmers busy! :-) Of course I don't know anything about the real costs of actually stopping trains to do something like this.

     

    I keep having this dream of the PowerCube Doublestack ... where the energy storage is separated from the "engine" and you start managing/switching "battery cars!"

     

    (Not being an expert makes it much more fun to spitball stuff like this ... you don't have to let the facts or "common knowlege" get in the way of a good dream.)
    27 Aug 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    I would agree that they've had plenty of time, but the things I mentioned above may have slowed the process up to this point. Either way, I think it all brings it back to the Altoona shop and their schedule. If NSC is anything like the University I work for, they don't keep a large group of workers and engineers just sitting around waiting for work to come in. They have small crews that are working all the time and a new project has to fit into their already scheduled work. That being said, I don't understand why they haven't done the NS999 yet. Making plans for a true test group after that, might require the type of personnel management I suggested above, but we really just need them to get moving and get NS999 done.
    27 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    I could envision a train pulling into an intermodal yard and not only adjusting the cargo they are delivering to the next stop but also adding or shedding both diesel electric and battery only locomotive power based on the next leg of the journey. I'm sure it's done with locomotives now.

     

    Each leg of the system is mapped and kinetic energy is added or removed from the train based on the mass of the train, required arrival time, fuel optimization calculations etc. That's one of the functions of the test cars NS has been hauling around. Mapping their tracks.
    27 Aug 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "Once the decision to go forward was made it should just be a matter of fitting it in the shop. Maybe that's where the delay is. Some unexpected events?"

     

    On reading the above, an off-the-wall SWAG flitted across the mind. A sizable zone of NSC service area was hit hard by the "derecho" windstorm that knocked out grid power for millions in Ohio, WVa, Va, MD. Could have disrupted some train schedules as well. Even possible electrically skilled NSC personnel in Altoona shops were re-assigned to repair storm damage, I expect.
    27 Aug 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    D-inv. That's a very good possibility. I'll give you a gold star for that input.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    I'm pretty sure breaking up a consist (or adding to it) is time consuming. It is a lot more than hitching up your utility trailer. Major electrical connections, redundant control circuits, and air lines that need to survive very rough conditions (vibration, weather). Consists are not rearranged often.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    While these decisions probably get made much higher, the initial failure of NS 999 has reportedly (but caveat ... based on 1 person's comments to me) soured a lot of the Altoona troops on whether it will ever work. What I don't know is how widespread throughout the corporation that sentiment is. I GUESS many believe there have been other companies have worked on similar ideas without dramatic success as well, which probably adds to their opinion.

     

    Companies are hard to predict if you don't have a real good idea of how runs the show ... the bean counters, the marketers, or the old hand experienced (and possibly set in their ways) operations types.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Indeed, you are correct. Locomotives, like Class 4 to 8 trucks, are built / tuned to operate in a region (though some wander) and/or service type.

     

    >Lab Tech & iindelco ... I think you're both being a little impatient, as am I, about NSC NS999. It is not a fast moving industry. If you go back and read the history, the eureka moment for the diesel-electric was 1928 but took almost 20 years to become dominate.

     

    >bazoooka ... I expecting that over the next decade the battery only and/or battery assisted diesel-electric to become dominate on the railroads. What part PbC captures? I don't know but think it is THE best cost effective solution and will be worked in wherever possible, but some sort of LAB will be in use because nothing else exists at the power to cost advantage it has. Li-on I don't see as having a chance because it is expensive, requires more environmental/monitoring control and is not the right type of battery for the job.

     

    In my usual manner, I was not being as clear about my time frames as I should. The 1st wave of EPA compliant switchers (gensets) started being ordered/constructed in 2009 to present. That puts the maintenance/rebuild cycle of (est.) 5 to 8 years starting in 2015-16 and overlapping original 1st wave orders by about 2 years. I would like Axion to be field proven, in use and ready by then.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Rick K & DRich, Thanks. Need to read up some on this. I see there is some material available based on a quick search.
    27 Aug 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... Watching train movement in my local intermodal yard here in Hutchins, breaking up a consist is time consuming. Just my observation, but the most common reason for breaking up a consist is fueling. Locomotive fueling is handled at a central fueling rack and not by driving trucks to the train (although I've seen that done but is more often for lube & sand). It takes about 15 to 30 minutes to break an engine free and maneuver cars off the turnouts.
    27 Aug 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    ">Lab Tech & iindelco ... I think you're both being a little impatient, as am I, about NSC NS999. It is not a fast moving industry. If you go back and read the history, the eureka moment for the diesel-electric was 1928 but took almost 20 years to become dominate."

     

    Understood. But then I don't know why they signed the agreement to have Axion produce and ship the batteries in 90-120 days? Maybe they weren't ready and just wanted Axion to stop bothering them about it? Who knows. The power outage that D-inv pointed out does seem to be a reasonable reason for a delay. But with all the NDAs and companies like NSC not wanting to show any kinks in the armour, I'm sure we'll never know.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    Every complex project I've ever been involved with had a Gantt Chart of critical steps that had to be completed sequentially. I can't imagine the rebuild of the NS 999 is an exception to the rule. For the last 30 years, the story has always been the same. Project deadlines slip and costs exceed budgets. I hate the phenomenon, but I have come to view it as a normal course of human events that's usually attributable to Murphy's Law instead of more ominous forces.

     

    After ELBC 12 where I learned that standard automaker battery testing took two years, I assumed we'd be looking at three years for the PbC. With the way things are shaping up between third party confirmation work and fleet testing, four years looks likely (summer 2009 to summer 2013).

     

    Welcome to the world of technology development.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Good thing none of those factors will affect Tesla and their ramp up of production on the Model S. Otherwise, they might be screwed!
    ;-)
    27 Aug 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    Mother always told me that there's an exception to every rule. Who knows, maybe Tesla's the chosen one for the world of business.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    I would consider the NS999 program to be somewhat complex the first time around. You know, when they got free money from the government and spent it on something QUICKLY anyone with half a brain in the battery business should have known wouldn't work. This time around after much battery testing, prior lessons learned and all the time they had to get it right this is not a complex program.

     

    The build phase will be done with much oversight, the start-up will be with the greatest of care and the testing will be watched heavily initially. But the overall complexity of the program, as far as putting this together, should be one step above wiping your a--.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    I remember saying exactly the same thing about buying a dead oil field from Texaco in 1991. It should have been simple and straightforward, but by the time it worked through all the departments and essential decision makers it took almost a year. My lesson - nothing is simple in a major corporation.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    I understand that part for sure. And in fact you are right as rain on your perspective IMO since I've been there many times. I was referring to the after the "Money in hand proceed phase" for the project team.

     

    Bureaucracy rules!
    27 Aug 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "...buying a dead oil field from Texaco in 1991. It should have been simple and straightforward, but by the time it worked through all the departments and essential decision makers it took almost a year."

     

    :-) Me thinks, "If someone wants to buy it, there has to be something we've overlooked" reverberated in the echo chamber.
    27 Aug 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3430) | Send Message
     
    John, with NS showing little movement and auto maybe a year away, do you have concerns about Axion's cash flow in 2013? Can we dare to hope that Joe Pic and his company will fill in the burn gap later this year and through next?

     

    Also should we be thinking that the next offering will be a multiple larger than our last one (i.e. cash worries will be laid to rest for years rather then 12+ months). This all assumes that flooded sales keep going to keep the lights on as the PbC takes hold.
    28 Aug 2012, 02:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    In the last conference call Tom seemed quite confident when he spoke of turning the corner to positive cash flow in 2013. As investors, we obsess over things we don't know and sales channels we can't see. As CEO, Tom has far better visibility about how relationships will develop and what the likely timing will be.

     

    The critical fact in my view is that we haven't had a failure. The PbC survived 3 years of BMW torture and another couple years of NS torture. Those testing programs were designed to kill the PbC, not nurture it. At this point I have to believe potential users are asking themselves "Can we afford to wait much longer without a significant risk that somebody else will jump the line to take the first mover advantage?"
    28 Aug 2012, 03:35 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I'm looking forward to seeing some of the many RFPs Tom referred to paying off in PowerCube sales. Also looking forward to FERC 755 being "settled" in different ISOs spread periodically over the next year allowing the bean counters to plug in real numbers and hitting the "buy it now" button.

     

    Looking forward to the revelation of who our strategic investor is. Not only will we get cash, but I think it will significantly enhance our reputation and improve the odds of customers wanting to do business with us.
    28 Aug 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3430) | Send Message
     
    I agree it seems a "when" not an "if" issue. However since the BIG companies move slow I am hoping that Rosewater and other Cube revenues come in to slow our cash burn to the point where we can really take to time and find a strategic investor on Axion's terms.
    28 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Much obliged for the data collecting APH. Great work.
    25 Aug 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Visited Viridity's website this morning and saw where Mitsui has invested USD 15 million in Viridity and will have a seat on the board. Looked through Mitsui website and couldn't find any information about them having a financial interest in a battery maker. Found a link to Mitsui/Viridity plans to take smart grid to Asia.

     

    Mitsui website: http://bit.ly/MTHlBy

     

    Article: http://bit.ly/Oie4wG

     

    2nd article with some info on why Mitsui invested in Viridity: http://bit.ly/QhsDps
    26 Aug 2012, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    metro--just so everyone knows, the Mitsui investment in Viridity announcement was already posted and discussed a little in these Concentrators. I'm not at all saying the discussion was complete, though.
    26 Aug 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Metro: I'm with JVeal - great find. I just hope that Viridity has a bias for Axion (unlikely?), since they have been accumulating experience with the PC, as at least a "demonstrator" unit to showcase their (Viridity's) capabilities.

     

    Long-term, sales could result from that even if some other battery or technology is *marginally* better in *some* aspects. It may be that "The Total Package" demonstrations would close deals where minimum requirements were satisfied.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    " I just hope that Viridity has a bias for Axion (unlikely?), since they have been accumulating experience with the PC, as at least a "demonstrator" unit to showcase their (Viridity's) capabilities."

     

    :-) Could be that I am fantasizing but I do seem to recall reading somewhere in the APCs of PbC inclusion in Viridity Energy's proposal for consideration of Army energy efficiency/Net Zero efforts at Ft Meade.
    26 Aug 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    I think you were recalling this presentation (Slide 26):

     

    http://bit.ly/M4Qe5d
    26 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    " I think you were recalling this presentation (Slide 26):

     

    http://bit.ly/M4Qe5d "

     

    That's it! Thanks, JP.
    26 Aug 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    oops sorry, I missed it.
    26 Aug 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Metro, great find!

     

    This could be HUGE!!! It gives Viridity more capital to expand testing of the Power Cube and a worldwide sales force. I'm not an expert on China's stealing of technology, but having Mitsui as the Asian promoter would seem to help protect Axion's technology.
    26 Aug 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning!

     

    From Viridity:

     

    "Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Announces $15 Million Investment In Viridity Energy"

     

    Expanding Electric Load as a Resource Worldwide and Energy Storage to Be a Focus

     

    http://bit.ly/QhsDps

     

    ...This cooperative partnership will also combine Viridity Energy’s expertise in storage optimization with Mitsui’s financing expertise to support the development of distributed energy projects that feature storage as a significant component.

     

    Have a nice day.
    26 Aug 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • alejotum
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    ...just wondering if they can incorporate all their expertise on this project of the inc ?
    http://bit.ly/SFiDpk
    26 Aug 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    For anyone interested, Here's an older government research study on activated carbon. My only reason for posting it is that it shows that there is opportunity in improving the faradic energy storage of the PBC. Most probably an ongoing effort "For the Future (My old German friends saying) ". There is a table with different materials, pore sizes and resultant capacitance via their processing method.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/RmD0r7
    26 Aug 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Renault is second guessing the Better place business model perhaps. Bet it's somewhat restrictive for the designers and expensive.

     

    http://bit.ly/NvmWhW
    26 Aug 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    A little OT...but fyi...

     

    John's (2) TSC articles ~ 50 comments each ...both under "Most Commented".
    Not sure of correlation (if any) to SA comments numbers.

     

    Just curious...does anyone know how many user names/screen names this "Alexa" person has...SA...YHOO...and now TSC.
    Interesting, many of Alexa's initial comments were "flagged" for review by TSC.
    Now some appear...just the cynic in me, but I think he/she getting some help phrasing responses to John.

     

    John...you may think about using the "stalker" term more than the "troll".
    At the end of the day, I think there is another story (trolls/stalkers) behind that!
    26 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    I've had stalkers before and I'll have them again. They're one of those things every blogger must cope with. I've gotten a good deal less shy about reporting abuse than I used to be and I've reached a point where I have no qualms about going over moderation's head when necessary.
    26 Aug 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... Nothing to base this on, but it is what professional PR / Internet media management do. I would bet a lot of money that "The Car Company That Can Not Be Named" spends a lot of of money on media management.
    26 Aug 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    Thanks...at the risk of sounding totally oblivious and ignorant, I was unaware it was to this extent.
    Makes sense when I stick my nose and I do not get a cogent response.
    26 Aug 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... Protecting the "Brand" is big business and corporations will watch the InetNet for pro & con commenting as well as direct promotion of the business. Here is a short list of direct corporate media watchdogs.

     

    http://bit.ly/Oh6dks

     

    and a short, short list of consultants

     

    http://bit.ly/Oh6cgD

     

    Mostly the preceding listed firms work the sunshine side but all are connected to the dark, disruptive & destructive when their paid interests are challenged. You see this in the political lobby industry all the time. Like this short list of political media managers.

     

    http://bit.ly/Oh6dkt

     

    All this makes figuring out what the actual facts are and should make people stop and question whether what they think is really their own idea or buying into the advertising.

     

    Is it any wonder Mr. Petersen attracts "trolls" upon the mention of certain products or industries. Do your homework ... know your mind.
    26 Aug 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    Thanks for the social network/branding links and comments. (education)
    I'm skeptical by nature and lessons learned...was aware of the political games...but not of corporate/branding to this extent...a brave new world awaits!

     

    I chatted with my 35 year old...writer...journal... observer son about your initial response.

     

    His reply, "Dad...where have you been...when did you turn stupid?"

     

    Is this where the student becomes the teacher?
    27 Aug 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • alejotum
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Carlos... or anyone ! ...can they not incorporate their service or tech into this inc project?
    http://bit.ly/SFiDpk
    26 Aug 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Alejotum: as as single instance of a new construction, there should be several disciplines that ought to be applied. For us to guess about the applicability of storage with so little information (no understanding of existing generation capacity, state and capacity of the grid, no discussion of the energy sources at all, ...) I would be surprised if we could offer any reliable thoughts.

     

    The only thing I could say with confidence is that the designers of the project should certainly be considering all the details related to energy sources, management and use. The expertise required to do the job *properly* *should* be much greater than what is available here.

     

    There's lots of alternatives in so many areas to be considered.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    alejotum, welcome to the Axion Concentrators.

     

    The power cube has been mentioned as a good backup for sports stadiums when the lights go off. You are talking about a church, a sports facility, and a hospital all in one. It would be great to see several power cubes with viridity's controls backing up critical functions and providing power smoothing. How practical it would be to jump in at this stage of the complexes development is the question.
    26 Aug 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    8/24/2012 EOD stuff partially copied from what will be in my instablog..
    # Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 69800, Vol 354522, AvTrSz: 6689
    Min. Pr: 0.3256, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3332
    # Buys, Shares: 40 249438, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3348
    # Sells, Shares: 12 93084, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3293
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3300
    Buy:Sell 2.68:1 (70.4% “sells”), DlyShts 194727 (54.9%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 209.19%

     

    Since I’m going to exclude a lot of my instablog detailed thoughts in the daily APC EOD stuff, I’m going to start with a summary here.

     

    I’m leaning bullish with some concerns for the daily short sales remaining high. But there are ways of looking at that which may mitigate a negative slant and lead to a more positive outlook as a result of this data point. What I’m seeing supports John’s 10/200 day cross is correctly forecasting the move up but I’m expecting more of a grind up (disclosure: I’ve been hoping for that and may be suffering confirmation bias here) rather than a rocket up. My outlook results from trying to blend the factors I see on my experimental charts into some kind of meaningful evaluation, while making guesses about the underlying causes of these technical indications.

     

    On the traditional TA front, price broke above a falling resistance that originated 5/3 and had multiple subsequent tests and failures. It now resides above the 10, 20, and 50-day SMAs. However, this was on weak volume, relative to recent, and with an RSI that weakened to 57.05 from Thursday’s recent peak of 62.06. I’m more concerned with the volume than the RSI for now as we had a nice “cupping” of the volume starting last week and Friday’s was below my 25-day average of ~398.4K. But this might be just a “Friday” effect.

     

    Regardless, I do expect some resistance to appear around the $0.35 area and then $0.37. The reasons have been mentioned in the past, so I’ll leave it at that. A factor not discussed in relation to those price points is the apparent continued possible presence of some larger sellers. Although I think the Mega-C trustee is likely out, there’s a couple things that suggest someone may have stepped in to take their place, but indications are not that strong about this – might be retail holders being “pulled” unto selling by seeing a nice little gain that eliminates some risk as well.

     

    OK, in the spirit of consideration for my fellow man (and woman) who might not have an interest in all the thoughts that move through my head regarding my experimental stuff, I’m cutting this off here. The rest can be found in my instablog, along with the charts later this afternoon.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Buy:Sell 2.68:1 (70.4% “sells”)

     

    Yes, I'm still chewing on your stuff as always.
    26 Aug 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    typo?
    26 Aug 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco & 48: Absolutely: s/b "buys". Thanks for the heads UP!

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Here's a site some may be interested in. I'm not a technician ( I need to get better) so I'll leave it up to those that are to value it accordingly.

     

    http://bit.ly/U4e2N2

     

    http://bit.ly/PgPQbo
    26 Aug 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Iindelco! Added to my bookmarks for investigation.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL!
    26 Aug 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Regarding volume ...

     

    no idea how to quantify this, or when to expect it, but I expect volume to go down as the price goes up, because volume certainly went up as the price went down.

     

    I think we have a fair number of small retail, non-professional investors in the stock. To have your bid or offer displayed by Level II at the moment takes 5000 shares. I think some folks "stretched" sometimes to hit those limits, and as the price goes up, and until we hit the price level where it goes down to 2500 from 5000, it becomes more of a stretch. So there could be some non trivial to detect "stair step" influences on volume based on price.

     

    Of course if we were to get really solid undeniable good news, or a series of say PowerCube/Hub announcements, greed will reign and such considerations won't matter. And if we attract the attention of a few institutions interested in walking the price up ...

     

    So I've been happy to see some of the volume weighted "market cap delta" stuff talked about lately.
    27 Aug 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: I think you have touched on something useful there. Mathieu also touched on this a short while back.

     

    Whatever the reason, volume increasing and decreasing as prices move in various directions is one of the closely watched factors in traditional TA and one I also watch on my experimental charts.

     

    When it's combined with other things it increases or decreases the "credence" given to a particular possible "what's next scenario".

     

    A non-technical cause of the volume changes, from what I've read, lies in "uncertainty". As various trends extend or "important" price points are neared, folks become less certain about "what's next" and tend to step away, at least briefly, until they observe something that instlls confidence that "what's next" is *likely* to be this or that move, trend, price, ...

     

    Sometimes, expectations of a catalyst may overcome hesitancy and a "what's next" will be a self-fulfilling "prophecy".

     

    Pure traders may affect all this as they just rapidly enter and exit positions based on either "formula" or timing. That's one of the things that has me being concerned with what's up with Special Situations. I wonder if they have started becoming "swing traders". If so, they could adversely impact any positive moves we've seen

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Or bolster them.
    27 Aug 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Interesting ... was to have been the 15h annual. Can't wait for the backstory :-)

     

    "GovEnergy 2012, August 19-22, 2012, St. Louis, MO is Cancelled.
    After a rigorous review of the 2012 GovEnergy conference, GSA has decided to postpone this year’s conference. GSA has decided to postpone the GovEnergy conference because of new standards that GSA has put in place for conferences and contracts surrounding conferences. There was not sufficient time to make the GovEnergy compliant with these new standards for an August 2012 conference.
    Funds will be reimbursed to registrants and vendors, and GSA will work with other federal agencies involved in this process.
    If you have any questions, please contact the Office of the Chief Administrative Services Officer at (202) 357-9697.
    Any media inquiries should be directed to the GSA’s press line at (202) 357-9587."

     

    http://bit.ly/Plo0Gv

     

    ran across them as Viridity Energy made a presentation to them last year.
    26 Aug 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (2167) | Send Message
     
    Somewhere north of here I read a short set of posts in relation to the NS999 project in which it was inferred, to put it in my own simplistic words, that the percentage of kinetic energy captured on deceleration was an unknown, uncalculated quantity.

     

    I find that unbelieveable, as I can't think of a more important number, other than the stock price, and there are sure a lot of people around here who are a lot smarter than I am that seem to know every other number.

     

    A related more generic question - does an electric motor with a stated ability to convert say 50% of "battery potential energy" into kinetic energy also have the ability to recapture 50% of the kinetic energy during braking (given unlimited charge acceptance rate) or would these two conversion rates be entirely independent?
    26 Aug 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    EM - Roughly, a motor should be able to generate the same as it energy capacity. So a 100kw motor (about 134 hp) should generate about 100kw.

     

    The big IF is the capacity of the storage. If the battery can only accept at 50 kw, that is the limiting factor. If the battery is already fully charged, then no energy can be accepted.

     

    The electricity generated could be put through simple resistors (converted to heat), and use air cooling for the heater coils. This is very common. It is easier to design large resistance coils for extended braking than friction brakes for very long downhills.

     

    All modern electric motors are over 90% efficient, whether used as a traction motor or a generator. I do not understand your "50%" comments. While the motors are over 90% efficient, round-trip efficiency has many more losses (battery charging, air resistance, charging circuitry efficiency, etc.) and is significantly lower than 90%

     

    Many vehicles can decelerate much faster than accelerate. A heavy truck may have a 0-60 mph time of 30 seconds, but (using friction brakes) can stop in less than 10 seconds. The electric motor (that got the truck to 60) would not have the power to stop the truck in 10 seconds. If the truck has to stop quickly, additional friction braking is necessary, and that energy is lost.
    26 Aug 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    I know...I know...JP has stated on numerous occasions re EV...call it continued due diligence or continuing to "drive the point home" (no pun intended)...call it the real world, just frustrating to follow.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/Oh3dEJ

     

    "That the mandate wouldn't be rife with "flexibility factor" fudge to encourage car makers to subsidize money-losing electric cars ...(NPR, calling a spade and spade, said the mileage rules were an "electric vehicle mandate.")
    As the Issa report makes clear, the fuel-mileage negotiations were run out of the White House's hip pocket, in defiance of the Administrative Procedure Act, the Federal Advisory Committee Act and the Negotiated Rulemaking Act, which are supposed to keep the regulatory state honest.
    Even the Obama auto task force, as it was wrapping up the GM bailout, acknowledged the obvious in a leak to the New York Times: "At some point . . . the drive for profitability is likely to collide with Mr. Obama's fuel-efficiency and low-emission goals."
    26 Aug 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Magounsq: good article. Thanks!

     

    I particularly liked the analogy of choking the goose by the neck until every last egg was extracted.

     

    Oddly, for me, I quickly equated that to what's happened in the financial sector as CDSs, CDOs, ... re-hypothecation, ... came into being so that the corrupted financial sector could serve it's own maximum-profit-only incentives (and concomitant large salaries and bonuses) without regard to abandonment of its traditional role in our societies and with no regard to the long-term effects on either society or their own viability.

     

    Sad, sad that such is "the norm" now.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • alejotum
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    H.T. Love/ Jveal...thanks for your response. I thought is a good lead sale, just like Jveal mentioned about the power cube. Many more projects (inc) thats been going on but some of them non-disclosures.
    ...here's there latest Engrng/Construction inauguration...
    http://bit.ly/ODYtcQ
    ... also a lead sale on the power cube on this property.
    Iglesia ni Cristo Church Buys Scenic, South Dakota Ghost Town ...
    26 Aug 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    New Scott Sklar presentation -

     

    http://bit.ly/OhzkEz
    27 Aug 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • alejotum
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    H.T.Love/Jveal , it should be
    1 Arena
    2 Stadium
    3 Hospital
    4 University ,.. it will be handed by the Contractors to inc January ist
    2014 . Another 6 months preparation before July 27th. ...here's an update;
    http://bit.ly/QI9BmA
    27 Aug 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    China Lead Stockpiles Seen Dropping as Battery Makers Expand

     

    http://bit.ly/SHOS8Z
    27 Aug 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    We have A123 cross-over. This morning A123 is trading at $.3301 compared to $.3379 for Axion.
    27 Aug 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Only three more horsemen to go!... Rough time for the aone faithful. Empathy. But glad to have stayed clear...
    27 Aug 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    481086,
    Second your sympathy, and it was a stock I looked at when beginning to invest in this sector, and also agree glad I stayed clear.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Wow. IPO at what $20? Just 2 or 3 years ago? What a cluster.

     

    You wonder how those A123 trolls can sleep at night knowing they probably influenced mom-and-pop investors and robbed them of a portion of their retirement.

     

    I sympathize with investors but think the paid trolls have damned themselves for all eternity.

     

    D
    27 Aug 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1520) | Send Message
     
    Anybody buying A123 at these prices? JP?
    27 Aug 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    I think A123's under pressure right now because they left the toxic convertibles in place and the holders are working their way out of the stock. Under the final deal terms Wanxiang doesn't care how many shares are issued because it's getting a fixed percentage of the total for its warrants and convertible debt, instead of a fixed number of shares. When the feeding frenzy is over and A123's capital structure is cast in stone it may become a good investment. Until then I wouldn't touch the stock.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    John, Just an FYI. It appears that when other sites pick up The Street articles for reprint the comments section is stripped from the reprint. This removes certain portions of the audience from gaining advantage from the comments section or adding to it.

     

    http://bit.ly/NxmsYt
    27 Aug 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    That's the normal case with reprints and one of the cool things about the blog is I get lots of reprints on other sites.

     

    I just did a Google search on "Beleaguered Battery Maker Soon to Get a Jolt" including the quotation marks. It returned 102,000 links, just like "Tesla's 'BS to Book' Ratio Says It All"

     

    My reach is scary when you think about it.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, You're more familiar than I.

     

    Unfortunately the posts at the end can sometimes offer quite a bit of information and I feel it's sad that this is shed during the reprints. Just my opinion.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1838) | Send Message
     
    Likely that's a large part of where the new investors come from. I'm always amazed to see all the 5000+ share purchases every day.
    27 Aug 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Great example of free enterprise. JP wins (thru his AXPW holding and prospecting, hopefully), other Axionistas win, Axion wins, TheStreet wins. Ok, I'll stop winning. ha
    27 Aug 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    MrI: a well-deserved "groan" to you!

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc: the 5K are, for now, the "standard block" most MMs will *present* (there's very often a lot more lined up behind those shown). This in spite a a recent (a year or so ago?) SEC rule change that says that they must present the real volumes ... with so many exceptions and other loopholes that it like like most of the time they just ignore the rule.

     

    If your order is not a multiple of that, you get way down on the priority list and may not have much luck getting filled. And you might even get filled with 100, 200, 300, ... leaving you totally disgusted.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I've played some games where I bid less than 5K, but at a price slightly over the best displayed bid.

     

    I THINK (but am not positive) if your broker happens to use the same market maker that is on the best bid, then when it gets hit, they have to fill you first.

     

    Downside is that not everyone knows you're bidding higher, but if there's a big gap between best bid and ask, it doesn't really matter in the great scheme of things.

     

    What you don't know is how many other people are playing this game at your price ... all of you game players may add up to enough to create a greater than 5K total, and thus be displayed. I think I saw this when I once tried 4999 shares, and my price immediately showed up at 5K.

     

    I would like to understand the rules when someone (unwisely) does a market order to trade a big chunk of stock ... what happens for example when there may be several "game players" as above, or just people who only want to risk smaller amounts of money.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: theoretically the market-makers are trying to aggregate orders where possible to make a trade - they get not only what profit they can garner from the trade itself, but also get "incentives" from the exchanges for providing liquidity.

     

    As with any endeavor involving humans (and add in computers), results are spotty.

     

    My personal experience includes a time when ETrade had to by my shares because I was able to prove that my order was first, was hitting the presented quantity and price and they failed to execute.

     

    I'm sure it'll never happen again (I mean, they take the shares).

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Re TSC...

     

    John's articles still listed under:

     

    Most Commented

     

    Tesla's 'BS to Book' Ratio Says It All
    http://bit.ly/TlpHVt

     

    Beleaguered Battery Maker Soon to Get a Jolt
    http://bit.ly/TlpFgv
    27 Aug 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    iindelco

     

    at least no ticker mixup with The Trentonian versus Fidelity!
    27 Aug 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    A couple of similar 380V DC high level (non-detailed) Data Center articles (from the same web site):

     

    "380V DC power is already very popular in Japan, and its use is becoming more common worldwide. For example, Green Data Center out of Switzerland recently opened a new facility in Zurich based on 380V DC power."

     

    http://bit.ly/SIXbQ4

     

    "Duke Power recently disclosed in a study that IT data centers are saving upwards of 20 percent when they convert to a 380V DC power platform ..."

     

    http://bit.ly/SIX8UB
    27 Aug 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    DC Power Chosen for New Cruise Ship Construction

     

    http://bit.ly/U6avOu

     

    http://bit.ly/U6ax8Y has a lot of interesting stuff.

     

    The company ... who knows. Write well, but whether they're riding on coattails or someone to watch I haven't figured out yet.

     

    http://bit.ly/PVIUP6
    27 Aug 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Interesting website on a new NREL test facility ...

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NWPPVv

     

    http://1.usa.gov/OmNDGe
    27 Aug 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I'm an anachronism, but this is starting to tick me off. They fail pushing Li-ion, solar, ... and when private enterprise and other non-affiliated regulatory agencies start making good progress, with aid from things like FERC, they have to spend millions and more to now starting "helping" us with more misguided and late R & D that will likely add little to what is either already known or would become known if they just get their GD hands in their pockets, instead of in our pockets.

     

    I'm disgusted and appalled at their audacity! How much will this retard progress? How much money will actually be wasted as the over-pay for what little will be gained beyond what would have come from private effort with *sound* policy (yeah, I know).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: P.S. I think it ends up being another slush-fund to support favored sectors and/or companies. I want to puke.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    Don't sugar coat it HTL, tell us what you really think.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Legislated relevance. The outcome is a distant second in importance.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    That was the cleaned up version for family viewing.

     

    HrdToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    All of that could/will happen. On the other hand, we've heard so much about small business being the engine of job growth. How to you support small companies getting access to testing facilities they might really need to get great ideas past a hurdle to market acceptance, profit growth, job growth, and possibly very needed social benefit of the actual product or service?

     

    Maybe the private sector might provide these services, maybe not. Maybe not till a market is demonstrated. Maybe not even then at a price they could afford. Maybe that's a proper role for government to at least explore.

     

    I am reminded of how the internet has equalized the playing field for many tiny companies, and even outsourcing providing services they need at amazingly low prices (in comparison to the past) due to worldwide competition. There is of course a very large amount of free enterprise that came into that once we had the internet.

     

    Also reminded of the VOST Solar tarrif stuff recently mentioned ... can you get more rigorous on the true cost benefits ...

     

    Not an easy problem. And I fully acknowledge that the run to hell has often been paved on good intentions.

     

    But I do think we want to avoid knee-jerk reactions to every government spending is bad or to be distrusted and instead work into every expenditure requires rigorous true cost benefit analysis on a periodic basis.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    I'll see all your maybes and raise you a "certainty": the majority of the results will be more expensive and less financially sound than what would have happened if they had set good policy (including tax policy) and just worked at staying out of the way.

     

    Small companies are started and run by folks with entrepreneurial spirit and strong work ethic. Many would fail, and if we believe in a capitalist system, rightly so.

     

    Those that survive will have done so on merit recognized by capitalist forces.

     

    You picks yer poison and takes yer chances in our way of doing things ... well, used to be. And look what we became in the world without "big brothers" constant meddling.

     

    Yes there were problems and abuses (mostly due to failure of government to execute on its *real* job). But the greatest destruction comes, IMO, when government says, "Don't worry, come here and suckle - all will be alright".

     

    This is the same old age-old argument we have going here: "But what might not happen if we don't help you along". Can't prove anything just like we can't prove that BHO didn't make 4MM jobs and how many might have been (not?) created otherwise.

     

    But we do have solid evidence of what *used* to work, to a large and fairly consistent degree.

     

    But ignoring reality seems to be the favored methodology these days.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1229) | Send Message
     
    sometimes it's better to just fall asleep, for the 6th time that day.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: BTW, I meant to mention the I was intimately involved in *some* early endeavors that led to the internet (certainly not involved directly though).

     

    The difference was this: the military was looking for a fault-tolerant network system (not a network per se, but a way to have various types of communication done over a network of some type).

     

    They funded a DARPA effort. As part of DARPA's investigation, they had a class presented to them on a facility in UNIX known as UUCP, which was a multi-route capable inter-computer communication protocol.

     

    Those were some of the smartest people I've ever met.

     

    Anyway, from that came funding for universities, which implemented early versions. Later a bright person thought of "WWW" stuff and then it became useful in commercial endeavors.

     

    Here's the critical difference: government was *not* funding speculative investments into unproven "maybes". They had a defined need and spent as needed to satisfy that need.

     

    That's a valid government function, vs. what we see now.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    In 1980 I worked with a metallurgist who designed the heat shields for the Apollo program. His favorite complaint was

     

    "Back in the day a government research project meant you had to make something that worked if you wanted to claim success. Today you just have to write a report so there's never a failure."
    27 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "They had a defined need and spent as needed to satisfy that need."

     

    Same with the space program. Choice was between recapturing "high ground" or ceding it to the Soviets and all the risks that entailed.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: And, as with the internet, the spin-off benefits to society were unforeseen and large in magnitude.

     

    Personally, I'm saddened to see the space program die. But we have to admit that it likely became bloated, as all large long-lasting endeavors, be they public or private, tend to do.

     

    Maybe from this cut-back will come a renaissance.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    Who needs a space program when we have St. Elon?
    27 Aug 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): through 12:12 8/27, the selling predominates.

     

    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 114365, AvTrSz: 3268
    Min. Pr: 0.3260, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3322
    # Buys, Shares: 16 32215, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3377
    # Sells, Shares: 11 82150, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3300
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.55 (71.8% "sells")

     

    As suggested a couple times over the last week or so, volume is also falling off. Since I view this as "normal" behavior, I'm not real concerned about it. Waves up and down exhibit this tendency.

     

    I'll be watching my experimental charts to see what short sales are doing though. If we see it falling off as price drops and selling ratio outweighs buying, it may indicate shares flowing to market-makers from prior short sales which they covered when price favored doing so are being released into the market. That would suggest the price re-trace is not to be long-lived.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    My Level II is showing the ask side that's unusual as of late: only 3 MMs below 37 cents; NITE essentially gone, at least for the moment, at 58 cents; EGRO still at 40 cents. May be further evidence of the big selling nearing the end. Or could be a d-bag head fake.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I see the same.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    And one of them, ATDF, is most likely smaller retail investor(s)
    8K @ .3319, significantly under 2nd best, also interesting UBSS is 6K, not 5K @ .338
    3rd is FANC 5K at .34, so there may be a lot more at that price
    27 Aug 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    My WAG is only takes 50k-100k shares to take out 34.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    I had some dry power so I was testing whether some of the offers at .3319, .3329,.3379 were small retailers. They were because I was able to take them out.

     

    After I took them out , I see offers like 13,300 @.34 by ATDF
    6,300 @.34 by UBSS
    5,000 @.34 by FANC

     

    It looks like we are getting some small retail sellers. I think the inflection is getting close. However, I am still see two big bottom feeders sitting at their low bits.
    27 Aug 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Nice, snowbird. Looked like dribs and drabs to me, too. Was also wondering when the PERT and UBSS bids will elevate. Nice that price is still up here without them, so if/when (more like when, IMO) they eventually join, well...

     

    Well well, was a head fake by NITE. Back st 33.
    27 Aug 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Haven't been watching all afternoon, but I don't get why NITE is sitting at the offer of .33 when the next best is ATDF/UBSS/FANC at .34 (and then nothing till .37)

     

    Maybe they walked it down while I wasn't looking cause nobody was chasing and they've got to get out of the position?
    27 Aug 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: don't forget that *very* often the MM is just showing an order from a broker somewhere. If the offer is sell and the MM can't see a way to turn it at a profit himself, he'll leave it alone.

     

    So without some (unpresented?) bids out there close to the ask, the MM doesn't want to move a small volume (not enough exchange-provided incentive to make it worth the risk of being out of a neutral position?).

     

    My best SWAG,
    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    wtb
    If I understand you correctly, you think the NITE 5k offer@.33 is from a retailer /broker small order and not because of NITE sitting on a lot of stocks to sell.

     

    This is interesting on how MM behave. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
    sb
    27 Aug 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    >snow
    no, I wasn't making that assumption. Mostly I just found it odd and was looking for opinions.

     

    When I see ATDF (I think related to Ameritrade) I think smaller retail. NITE I'm not nearly so sure about. Fidelity used to use them I believe, but they switched over to ATDF within the last 6 months or so in my observation (I'm a Fidelity customer.) Anybody other than EGRO and ATDF I think could be potentially directed from small hedge funds or "mini-institutions" (not that I thought there were many, although the last conference call had significantly more new to us "XXX Capital" types.)

     

    As it turned out, there turned out to be quite a bit of supply there at .33
    $0.3300 10,000 OTO 15:59:58
    $0.3300 5,000 OTO 15:59:24
    $0.3300 5,000 OTO 15:59:24
    $0.3300 1,000 OTO 15:57:49
    $0.3300 10,000 OTO 15:52:16
    $0.3274 6,390 OTO 15:47:29
    $0.3300 1,000 OTO 15:45:01
    $0.3300 10,000 OTO 15:43:52
    $0.3300 2,610 OTO 15:33:41
    $0.3300 5,000 OTO 15:33:39
    $0.3300 5,000 OTO 15:29:20
    $0.3300 5,000 OTO 15:29:20
    $0.3261 5,000 OTO 15:24:35
    $0.3275 20,000 OTO 15:22:30
    $0.3300 1,500 OTO 15:20:04
    $0.3300 350 OTO 15:02:57

     

    I guess we'll never know if many of those folks would have "paid up" closer to .34 ... or even .335 for that matter!

     

    Hey ... maybe it was a flipper that grabbed a bunch at .30!
    27 Aug 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    wtb
    Sorry, my question is really for htl. I typed wtb by mistake.
    sb
    27 Aug 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Some observations and thoughts on the AXPW MMs for the several months I've been here--would appreciate your edits and additions:

     

    ATDF (Used to be the role filled by AUTO): TD Ameritrade and per wtb, Fidelity (perhaps other retail brokerages, too?). Therefore, mostly, if not all retail. Has been very active recently, on both sides. Often steps ahead of the bid/ask by tiny price increments, further indicating retail.

     

    ETRF: Etrade. Therefore, mostly if not all retail.

     

    EGRO: The MM arm of one of the two placement agents from the 2/3/2012 deal. Therefore probably a combo of retail and small institutional. Not sure how much of the flipping is/got channeled thru this affiliate. I would think they would like all of it to be. If so, they are a big fish in the AXPW MM pond. Late last week raised their offer way up to 40 cents (5 cents above the 35 cents 2/3/2012 deal price and 7 cents above the best offer today), after having been around or on the low offer for awhile. Was very active on the sell side until late last week.

     

    UBSS: Affiliate of UBS. Some European Axionistas have said their trades go this route. Affiliates are well-known as brokers and advisors to the wealthy and to institutions. Also, The Blackrock subsidiary that holds AXPW is European, per their last filing, anyway. Not at all sure if that means they channel their trades this way, though. Have been very active recently, on both sides.

     

    NITE: A biggie of the MM industry. IIRC, JP said that the BK Trustee seemed to sell thru them last round, but I could be wrong. Has been very active recently, especially on the sell side.

     

    The ERT Brothers--VERT and PERT: VERT bid at least 135k shares at 33 cents at one point early this morning and was eventually taken out. Otherwise, ?

     

    CSTI: = Canaccord Genuity Securities LLC. Affilate of a wealth mgmt firm, as well as capital mkts biz, IOW, they have stock analysts (but not saying they cover AXPW, of course). Recently appeared with decent size on the bid side, a couple cents below mkt. Canadian brothers represent'n.

     

    FANC, TEJS, PUMA, WABR, CDRG, MAXM (affiliate of the men's magazine?), BTIG, STXG : ?

     

    Don't know the preferred MM routes for the professionals on the last CC. Given a couple of unusual MMs on the bid recently in size, perhaps this event or JP's TheStreet article's follow-thru is the reason.
    27 Aug 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Snow: We don't know how much NITE was really sitting on. But the fact that they came back to 5K @ $ 0.33(?), *could* be that they received a small sell order.

     

    Keep in mind that generally the MMs want to be market-neutral and will stray from that position only if they can see that it's a) safe and b) they'll likely make a little, either from the arbitrage or from the incentives.

     

    When we so cavalierly talk about the market-maker doing this or that, *most* of the time it's really a (larger?) customer of the MM that is driving it. For instance, we (well, JP had the best handle on it) had identified a strong possibility that NITE was apparently servicing one of the known large sellers. The daily short sales suggested that those shares were not in the MM portfolio, so we can deduce that the customer of the MM was the real cause.

     

    The MM is in the position of "aiding and abetting" (yes, even criminal activity such as price manipulation) if the MM wants to keep the business from large customers.

     

    With that background in hand, the fact of NITE's position at that time *suggested* that they were not anxious to trade at that price at that time.

     

    That led me to wonder if it was a case of a small order from a smaller customer and conditions in the market at that time made the MM loathe to get that trade done then.

     

    The *important* thing is that we *never* know (that's by design), never *will* know (also by design) and are left to our own devices (supposition, deduction, SWAGS, tin-foil hats, ...) to try and learn and understand what may be happening "behind the curtain".

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    APH ... I think a link to this comment should be considered in the "standard preamble"

     

    HTL ... maybe a one liner link in your instagrams as well?
    28 Aug 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    EDIT: Arg ... wrong spot
    28 Aug 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Seemingly a very well researched report. However, a huge gap when it comes to lead carbon and their discussion of the micro-hybrid market.

     

    http://bit.ly/RgFBio
    27 Aug 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Heads up. Might be the high school you referenced recently? CNBC will be doing a piece shortly on a $60MM football stadium for a high school. Didn't say where, but I'm guessing ...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Haven't seen that CNBC thingy but Allen has the most expensive one I know of. There are several others in N.Texas (S.Texas, too. My hometown built a HS stadium that seats 25k) in the $25-$40M range ... the slums. If ever there were a bunch of people that LOVE to spend their day griping & grousing about the evil government tax machine ... I live in the heart of that beast. What is important and what will they pay taxes for? Never again wonder why the USA is looking more & more like a banana plantation.
    27 Aug 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if Axion will be sending someone to this event?

     

    http://bit.ly/RgJwM2

     

    Viridity, PJM, Navy Yard, etc will be represented ...
    27 Aug 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    <sarcasm>
    Not government sponsored?! Heavens, can't possibly be useful!
    </sarcasm>

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1520) | Send Message
     
    I have for the first time seen mention of a hybrid transit bus with a stop/start system enabled. It will begin testing this year courtesy of a Twin Cities Transit agency.
    The bus is also capable of all-electric operation for short distances. It will feature all electric accessories—including air conditioning.
    http://bit.ly/SIOgjd

     

    BAE Systems is behind it. No word on the batteries but presumably they are from A123-as in previous generations. Here are some specs about the “Accessory Power System” for those who might make sense of them. http://bit.ly/On95e4
    The APS is separate from the energy storage.
    27 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10470) | Send Message
     
    Reporting in: Downtown Indy is completely sold out for the CEDIA Expo. Great for Rosewater!
    27 Aug 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Bet your glad you don't need a room, huh?

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    How's the weather in beautiful downtown Indy for the big event? I hope it is much better than that in Tampa for the Rep Convention!

     

    357
    27 Aug 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10470) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357: The CEDIA Expo begins Sept. 5th. Hoping Issac will be long gone by then!

     

    HTL: Don't have a room yet; none were available more than a week ago in the Marriott Courtyard where the Rosewater boys will be staying -- hotel reservation clerk was inept!

     

    Lots of rooms in the burbs, so Velocity Travel said today, the kind woman was the person who told me downtown Indy is sold out.

     

    Did talk with Mario of Rosewater today; hopefully myself and the Rosewater gang will be doing dinner the night of the 6th.
    27 Aug 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Been hanging out in Tampa all day ... its not as bad as was expected!
    27 Aug 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA): Options market-makers trying to work the poor retail guys, who fortunately are not biting ATM.

     

    A $0.70 spread on Sep. $30 stike puts. 531 bid $2.40, 134 offer $3.10.

     

    TSLA pps $28.28, -$1.24, (4.31%) today.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Old NITE is back to it's old tricks of offering an unlimited amount of shares at $.33. The 5000 offer that just doesn't want to go away!

     

    357
    27 Aug 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357, Like kicking a tree stump. Feels great!
    27 Aug 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    how true, nothing like a sharp stick in the eye!
    27 Aug 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Not much detail.

     

    Progressive Concept Heavy-Duty Hybrid Truck Powered by Remy Motor

     

    http://bit.ly/PMFU5A
    27 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Iindelco - going to link this over in my (UQM) blog - need to keep track of those pesky "competitor" critters.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Just a small repayment for your many contributions. :)

     

    We hunters know that when you're out hunting in the market not only are you a predator but you're also game. Watching the competition is but one of the ways to avoid being swallowed!
    27 Aug 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    And the Volt is doing far better than the Leaf of late in sales.

     

    GM to idle Volt plant for 4 weeks, sources say

     

    http://bit.ly/OnFIbN
    27 Aug 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    ALABC pushing to get into hybrid vehicles. Cheaper than Nimh which T has locked up pretty well.

     

    The Mild-Hybrid, Lead-Acid Advantage for Lower Cost and Extra Environmental Protection

     

    http://bit.ly/RSY37g
    27 Aug 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10470) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: Didja notice who was credited with the chart?
    27 Aug 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Maya...good catch!
    27 Aug 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Hey HTL,
    These guys are down the street from both of us. We should do a road trip sometime! :-)

     

    The Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium
    1822 NC Highway 54
    Durham, North Carolina, 27713 USA
    Tel: 919.361.4647 Fax: 919.361.1957
    27 Aug 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: nah, they strangle us as soon as we mentioned Axion or PbC! :-))

     

    And I know *I* wouldn't be able to resist!

     

    HardToLove
    28 Aug 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    Axion gets along fine with the ALABC. In fact they got some ALABC money a few years ago. As an industry group the ALABC is mostly interested in technologies like carbon additives that everybody can use as opposed to proprietary technologies like the PbC, but that's their mandate.
    28 Aug 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    I don't know. ALABC is pushing the Ultrabattery pretty hard and that's locked up pretty well by a limited number of players.
    28 Aug 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    To my understanding the Ultrabattery is intended as a finished product, complete, with exclusive manufacture and distribution in the U.S. from East Penn. Unlike the AXION model that would sell electrodes to many/any battery manufacturer.
    So isn't AXION's model more akin to ALABC's mandate than the Ultrabattery?
    ALABC seems to have designated the Ultrabattery the winner in the assymetric battery competition!
    28 Aug 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    The ALABC understands the differences between the Ultrabattery and the PbC and they'd never suggest that the Ultrabattery is the better of the two batteries. That being said East Penn has a lot more financial and manpower resources to throw at ALABC projects than Axion does. Where Axion is reluctant to spread its staff and finances too thin, East Penn sees a clear PR advantage. East Penn is also a good deal less concerned with protecting their IP than Axion.
    28 Aug 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    In the end the group as a whole would prefer that the lions share of the spectrum of uses would be covered by technology that would not be specific to any one player in the group. This is true for the LAB suppliers and the various industries they serve. Almost all of the LAB industry is tending to various religious rituals at a high frequency hoping carbon additives will bridge the gap between what they have and what the industries served need so they can hold on to their cheese.
    28 Aug 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    It's actually a problem for the industry in my view - a problem I plan to focus on in my ELBC presentation. The lead-acid battery industry is very old school and unaccustomed to strategic cooperation for the common good. They haven't quite gotten the message about hanging together or hanging separately.
    28 Aug 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    I might still go check it out sometime. It's just on 54 between 55 and Fayetteville RD, so it's not that far from Southpoint. My question would be, what do I do when I get there? Do I go in and say..."hi, I'm invested in Axion Power International...what are you doing for them or what can they do for you?"
    28 Aug 2012, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    It may just be me, but that's not the kind of visit I'd make without an appointment and a clear idea of what I wanted to discuss.
    29 Aug 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "My question would be, what do I do when I get there?"

     

    If 'twas me, I would 1) seek confirmation that use of the PbC (vs the Exide battery) was sought, and 2) if confirmed, try to get ALABC's take on why Axion did not participate.

     

    Trust, but verify.
    29 Aug 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    I learned that the PbC was the first choice for the LC SuperHybrid in a conversation with Alan Cooper at the Geneva Motor Show. I suspect that somebody walking in off the street would have a very hard time getting verification from an office worker in Durham NC.
    29 Aug 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Petersen. He's everywhere!

     

    Thanks for pointing it out. I thought it looked familiar. :))
    27 Aug 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    HTL--FYI, FINRA shorts for today were only 76k shares, which = 20% of total volume of 379k shares. Only one day, of course, but nice to see the big decrease? Or do we want someth'n else?
    27 Aug 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I was looking for that - as mentioned I didn't want to see a big increase and/or elevated level maintained if/as price weakened.

     

    I had mentioned this before, but had said "more on that later" recently.

     

    I think I've spotted a pattern in the charts now after a big spike up, beyond just the "subsequent trend down" that seems normal (although it was *very* tardy in starting this time).

     

    It appears there might be a relation to T+3, the (normal) settlement interval. Need to look more, but I'm thinking along the lines of DTCC "netting" and/or shares backing prior sell orders flowing in and *if* price action was right the MM(s) covered at a lower price and then had "free" shares to get more profit in hand.

     

    This would cause them to set price ranges that maintained or increased the realized profits as they can release these incoming shares to the market.

     

    Need to get in-depth now that I'm running over six months of data - might find a reliable pattern there.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Aug 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    The Germans are finally coming to the realization that storage is the keystone enabling technology for their green energy programs.

     

    http://bit.ly/SM2M8t
    28 Aug 2012, 04:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Good link with a lot of talk about molten salt metal battery, doesn't it take a lot of power to keep that stuff a liquid? Just a thought. Also, commercialization in 3 years? Bwahaha, Axionistas know better.
    28 Aug 2012, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    Molten salt's been around for a long time. It's been manufactured in Switzerland for at least a decade and the GE factory in New York is basically a clone of the FZ Sonick facility. It does use a lot of energy maintaining heat, but round trip efficiency is a very relative concept.

     

    An 85% round trip efficiency isn't terribly impressive for a battery, but it beats the daylights out of an electricity to hydrogen to electricity cycle where 50% round trip efficiency would be spectacular.

     

    The nice thing about storage is there are so many different applications that everybody who brings a cost effective product to market will have more demand than he can handle. The challenge will be finding the best applications for each device and that will involve a lot of testing, trial and error.
    28 Aug 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, utility scale molten salt batteries should not have significant energy consumption issues staying hot since they have a large mass to surface area ratio. All batteries get warm when they are recharged.

     

    NGK and GE have molten salt batteries, and Sadoway's molten salt system is claimed to be particularly low cost. Molten batteries are probably not competition for bio-carbon batteries; they are for different markets. Since molten batteries are not for vehicular or consumer markets, they may have a shorter timeline to market.
    28 Aug 2012, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    JP and Rick,
    Thanks for the explanations. I had heard of the GE battery, but this sounded like something new still in R&D. I can't help it, may be from the first time I touched a hot stove when told not to, but the idea of molten salt and metal seems inherently dangerous in earthquake country.
    28 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30433) | Send Message
     
    NaMCl batteries are incredibly complex devices that are built in 100 wh cells and then assembled into packs that are insulated like nobody's business. When I visited FZ Sonick's plant in Stabio, we spent about ten minutes sitting on a pair of fully charged battery packs that were ready for shipping. People's imaginations make a much bigger deal of the internal heat than it is in fact.
    28 Aug 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning.

     

    I recommend to read this book: The Third Industrial Revolution by Jeremy Rifkin

     

    Have a nice day!
    28 Aug 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1730) | Send Message
     
    <iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://bit.ly/Pqy4y3" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen><...

     

    Gracias, Carlos. For those who want the "you tube" version... see hyperlink above.
    29 Aug 2012, 03:26 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    That was very very interesting. Thank you.

     

    Especially I noted the long term storage goal: Hydrogen at home.
    29 Aug 2012, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Carlos/Occam's_Razor

     

    Good recommendation...and link.
    29 Aug 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    8/27/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 65, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 379015, AvTrSz: 5831
    Min. Pr: 0.3260, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3312
    # Buys, Shares: 42 159925, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3334
    # Sells, Shares: 23 219090, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3296
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.37 (42.2% “buys”), DlyShts 76050 (20.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 34.71%

     

    Got what I believe are good signs going on today. I remain constructive on the share price and seem to have support for this view from my experimental metrics and traditional TA as well.

     

    The first is that even as buy:sell went “negative” by a small amount, the daily short sales dropped by both a large amount (61%) and percentage (from 54.9% to 20.1%). Considering that total volume increased 6.1%, this is a positive, IMO. I had been concerned that shorts might remain high as price moved against us.

     

    This didn’t happen. My best SWAG is that the market-makers had been covering some earlier short sales when prices favored that action and are now releasing incoming shares that backed prior short sales into the market. Under this scenario, they have no reason to engage in short sales and have an incentive to help keep prices up as they wish to sell those incoming shares at additional profit. Assuming a T+3 delivery interval, the timing seems about right as well.

     

    I’m also encouraged by seeing behavior that I expect. As I’ve mentioned a few times, I expected a trend of volume lower for a bit. If you check my experimental charts, you see this happening. When things don’t act as I expect I get a bit more concerned.

     

    Meanwhile, back at the ranch, prices have move up nicely over the last few days with the VWAP above the 10, 25 and 50-day averages and even the low has improved to just below the 50-day SMA. If price doesn’t collapse today, it’s likely that the 10-day average will move above the 25-day average and we’ll have what appears to be a good steady sustained uptrend in place. Of note is that prices and averages have all move above those nasty long-term trend lines and the correlation between prices and those three trend lines, which had been strengthening and had achieved correlations in the high 6x%-70% has begun to break down on the lows trend line – only a 1% retreat but every change ha a first step.

     

    Average trade sizes are hanging right in around all the moving averages and the buy:sell 10-day average has continued a nice reversal, now residing above the 100-day average.

     

    I’ve been tracking the “inflection points”, using the suggestion Mathieu offered and 15th and 16th the 10 and buy:sell 25-day calculation made moves: 10-day -471.17 to 5.25; 5-day -13.24 to 331.98. These may not be the best metrics to use for inflection points, but I had to start somewhere and it turns out that VWAP made a reversal in that time and started up. I’ll be adding this calculation to the other metrics sometime in the future and maybe we’ll see something useful emerge there. Possibly supporting the utility of these calculations is that the 50 and 100-day values made these moves on the 13th and 14, just ahead of the short-term calculations: 50-day -73.34 to 140.99; 100-day -291.91 to 331.33.

     

    I omitted the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” here because their value is uncertain, but they'll be in my instablog, which should be up within the hour.

     

    Remember: experimental, early on the learning curve and a somewhat wild-eyed and erratic ... nouns anyone?

     

    HardToLove
    28 Aug 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Infatuation.
    28 Aug 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18427) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: where it says "5-day", should say "25-day".

     

    HardToLove
    28 Aug 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like