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  • Axion Power Concentrator 149: Sep. 9, 2012: Rosewater Energy Hub Articles, John Petersen's Updated Graphs 216 comments
    Sep 9, 2012 11:04 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Recent positive press on 9/3 was seen in a LibertyInvestor.com article, "5 Stocks For The Dawn Of A New Age In Batteries". The article is short, mentions construction of the battery, some of the attributes of it and applications, such as start/stop and the Norfolk Southern effort.

    Without risk of plagiarism, I quote the end of the Axion segment: "Buy Axion" (emphasis added).

    CEPro.com had a nice write-up published 8/29, "RoseWater's Residential Energy Storage Hub a UPS on Steroids" and greentechadvocates.com had a piece that same day, "Luxe Home Energy Storage System to Debut", about Rosewater's offering the Residential Energy Hub. Sounds like Mr. Piccirilli has the marketing machine in full swing and Axion will benefit greatly as time passes.

    Thanks to all the APC participants who help identify such as these articles. Without you, we couldn't do the job.
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    The following charts and associated commentary are thanks to the efforts of John Petersen and we are all indebted, and thankful, for the effort and sharing that he does!

    Axion Power Market Cap and Share Count at 8/24/2012:

    John Petersen provided a chart and commentary for these items, which can be found in the header of Axion Power Concentrator 148: Sep. 3, 2012 if you want to review them.

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    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated through Friday close Sep. 7th)

    (click to enlarge)Axion Power Moving Average Volume 20120907

    As expected, the 50-day volume moved up through the 200-day volume on Thursday 9/6, which is a pretty rare event.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through Friday close Sep. 7th)

    (click to enlarge)Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices 20120907

    On the price chart, it's interesting to note that the 10-day average moved up through the 20-day average on Tuesday 8/28 and it moved up through the 50-day average on Friday 8/31.
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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Graph:

    (updated Aug. 21st)

    (click to enlarge)Axion Power Concentrator Comments Graph

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    Testing Summary Statistics On Stocks, FocalPoint Analytics has begun an instablog that will apply statistical disciplines to metrics of stock activity to produce summary indications of likely actions going forward. Well worth a visit.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (216)
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  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    First - finally
    9 Sep 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    Yeah!
    9 Sep 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Did you know .... (I didn't)

     

    CME trades all kinds of electricity futures, e.g., for many ISOs

     

    " XXX Hub 5 MW Off-Peak Calendar-Month Real-Time LMP Swap Futures"

     

    Here's a sample with an arbitrary search term of "5 MW"

     

    http://bit.ly/NU9Ssw;sortOrder=descending&... + 'Energy' and (contains(lower-case(c... mw') or contains(lower-case(cp... mw'))]&PageStart=1...

     

    Good to know at least these are out in the light of day after reading past stories about Enron and California power trading.

     

    I have no idea how much of the US electricity market is so transparent.

     

    EDIT: Hopefully you can cut and paste the link. I just tried bit.ly to shorten it and they mucked it up too. You want product group energy, and then you can type in the search term "5 MW"
    9 Sep 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    There are lots of things to like about Axion, which is why I've got 25% of my investment total in it. I thought John's TS article was spot on - this story has been inexplicably frustrating for even the patient; sadly, it may be just a matter of time before the rest catch on or before science moves on.

     

    There was a fellow here who coined the "PbC - Profit beats Cool" phrase which I can't get out of my mind. While it's often true, esp in the long run, great ideas don't always get a chance to make a long run - especially when the short-term thinking of traders and politicians wields the control it too often does, while technological advance, which has obsoleted numerous great solutions, continues inexorably.

     

    Obviously I wouldn't still be here if I'd given up. How much longer this looks smart is a good question to ponder. I'd like to hear what your thinking is on that.

     

    I have enjoyed "getting behind" Axion, putting my money where my mouth is, because the science we know now is as well, but the longer this goes the less certain it becomes, IMHO.

     

    I have been averaging down since 2010, which is a lot shorter than many of you, I know. I almost thought this was a "no-brainer". So may apps. sigh.

     

    btw, I have another stock I am deeply invested in, namely Agrimarine (Toronto FSH or OTC AGMHF). Not a better mouse-trap, but close: A better fish trap. It's a story I love to share, but this is not the place. However, with all its technology, it possesses something that Axion does not: Certainty. It will sink or swim: No one else is even in the tank.

     

    Waiting for the truth to go on a march.
    9 Sep 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    wait for 2013 breakeven TG predicted. if it comes you are good to go. if it doesn't then start walking away. at today's prices a lot of things can happen between break even to push up the stock price.

     

    another key moment will be the next round of financing. looking for a strategic partner sounds very good for shareholders. it could mean no real dilution.
    9 Sep 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Hoping for John's supply/demand/equinox theory...appears logical but the market does not always operate logically.
    And there are always the unanticipated variables.
    AXPW needs something to move the needle by EOY 2012.
    IMHO
    10 Sep 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    "AXPW needs something to move the needle by EOY 2012."

     

    I tend to think it needs to be a bit earlier than EOY, say, something this month and more early next quarter.
    10 Sep 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    eh... let's arbitrarily say they have until 1:55pm on December 7th
    10 Sep 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    "eh... let's arbitrarily say they have until 1:55pm on December 7th "

     

    By the time of that date, I likely will have moved out of greater harm's way.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    I posted a somewhat arbitrary date to get a feel for how edgy the "strong hands" are getting.

     

    I suspect you're not alone D-Inv.

     

    I don't think news is particularly tied to the movement of the needle or that any news we'll get before year-end will move the needle. When selling goes down and buying goes up, the needle will move. I'd gander the news that moves the needle won't come until after the stock is on a slope up... some folks usually anticipate these things in advance.

     

    P.S. the date was the east coast anniversary of Pearl Harbor
    10 Sep 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Sentiment change by year end?

     

    Certainly possible: Consider these events ... many could occur.

     

    NSC accepts delivery and NS-999 remains in operation for say a couple of months (past the quick fail hurdle.) NSC publishes something patting themselves of the back.

     

    NSC announces order for at least one OTR locomotive. Multiples? Stand back!

     

    A PowerCube sale gets announced in PJM area once frequency regulation pricing is fixed.

     

    UL certification announced by Rosewater/Indy Power.

     

    Another Military related contract of any sort announced.

     

    One of our sharp eyed reporters detect a shipment of batteries to either Toyota or Hyundai.

     

    Not saying stock will pop, just that the trend will change ... a slow steady uptrend is likely all it will take to keep most of involved.
    10 Sep 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    inflection point people look at sttyf and axpw. i feel like sttyf is about a week ahead of axpw and both are in similar trading patterns.

     

    also, feel free to add to strong hands shares traded while price remains under 20 day moving average all day after subtracting out 20 day average volume.
    10 Sep 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    I like that idea! Would be nice of Axion to do something special for my birthday this year. :-)
    10 Sep 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The only reason I feel comfortable talking inflection points with Axion is that I've been tracking the stock for the last three years and know the movements by heart.
    10 Sep 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Yeah... I'm tempted to buy more at .29xx... and I'm surprised only one person has mentioned they bought today... although I'm not surprised that they bought at the low price of the day so far...
    10 Sep 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Added today, Jon...

     

    Its a given when the price hits $.2x now. Anything higher and I'm not really lowering average share cost, so why bother?
    10 Sep 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    bought more today under 30 cents.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1755) | Send Message
     
    Bought more under .30c
    11 Sep 2012, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    That's 4 confirmed Axionista buys yesterday. Okay... not as dour as I thought in here...
    11 Sep 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Got my orders in for today. My problem has been selling. I have yet to sell a single share. Even the blocks I bought for trading. I will do better, I will do better, I will do better...
    11 Sep 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Right there with you Tim. Haven't sold any, and have bought a lot.

     

    If Axion shares were body fat, I wouldn't be able to see my toes anymore... and Richard Simmons would be coming by any day now to help me lift my arms.
    11 Sep 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Tim: my trading blocks are not for gains of 2 or three pennies, regardless of "percentage" gains. Mine are for doubles: some $0.301->$0.6x, some $0.42->$0.8x *unless* I believe that a substantial increase in shares held can be obtained by trading in and out more rabidly (sic). Sometimes I do that when I see a pause that suggests a reversal after a decent-sized move up. But that's not often recently.

     

    So I bring my "patience" tool into play and also use other trade profits to increase my positions.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Hard to trade something with about zero volatility...
    11 Sep 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The current activity looks an awful lot like there's a big position being liquidated. Otherwise we'd see a lot more volatility. When somebody with size decides to liquidate they generally pick a price that other holders will be reluctant to match or beat. Then they just soak up the volume till they're done and then suddenly go away.
    11 Sep 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    "The current activity looks an awful lot like there's a big position being liquidated. Otherwise we'd see a lot more volatility. When somebody with size decides to liquidate they generally pick a price that other holders will be reluctant to match or beat. Then they just soak up the volume till they're done and then suddenly go away."

     

    I concur to a point... this is starting to feel like we're stuck in a tautological loop
    11 Sep 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    I have been trying to figure out the effectiveness of the seller capping the ask as weak retailers force them to walk the price down a little more each day. Or to take several days of major dumping and be done with it sooner rather than later.

     

    What is better for the stock? Prolonged moderate volume with slowly declining chart or two day major volume spike down on the chart? Will we get both?
    11 Sep 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    It always feels like a tautological loop until the last share moves. Either that or it feels like day 38 of the great flood when Noah knew it would never stop raining. My two prior experiences with supply and demand imbalances both felt like the selling would never stop, until it suddenly did. They both caught me by surprise because I didn't understand the mechanics of what was happening. I'm still not certain that I can predict the timing of the inflection, but so far the numbers are not out of line with my thesis.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    John: But the one I see jumping to the head of the sell line most often seems to be ATDF, which we've been guessing is mostly retailers.

     

    And trade sizes seem to suggest that as well, although that could be an effect of what the buyers are willing to take in a single chunk or market-makers parcelling trades out to mask stuff.

     

    But it sure has been consistent. Of course NITE, PUMA, ... and others also jump ahead of the ask, but it seems to be less frequent than ATDF.

     

    I wonder if it's Special Sits though.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    I know in the past my buys through scottrade came up as ATDF, so I am comfortable assuming that that MM may execute a significant number of retail trades. It also explains lower short data on declining days as the big seller doesn't get as much filled as the weak retailer jumping ahead, while on up days short data increases and the retailer holds on unable to bring themselves to sell as price improves but the larger sellers move the bulk of their shares.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    JAK: I think your explanation of up and down and short holds a lot of water.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Another recent that might be retail is TEJS. Relatively new and does a lot of shoving too.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    When a big seller picks a price that it will use as a pre-empt, it knows some holders will jump in front and take a lower price, but the bulk won't. So there's always some price shaving at the bottom end but it's usually measured in a couple hundredths or tenths of a penny.

     

    I personally don't see how Special Sits can be selling at this price and making a buck, and vulture funds always try to make a buck.

     

    They were reportedly out of stock at year end and had built back up 2.6 million shares by the end of June. Between January 1 and June 30 the number of shares that traded below ±$.29 is insignificant.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    "the one I see jumping to the head of the sell line most often seems to be ATDF, which we've been guessing is mostly retailers."

     

    Capitulation by smaller holders confronting market uncertainties in face of EURO crisis and slowing/stagnant economies? If so, ANY kind of positive news out of Axion could prove powerful.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    It could be AXPW is the designated tax loss selling stock for all major funds and they simply use it as their vehicle to lose money.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I agree that it makes no sense for Special Sits to be selling but it is not totally unreasonable. We, here, have advertised our willingness to support the stock close to what they probably bought for. Why not take advantage of it. There has been good money to be made in momentum this summer. If they are only interested in momo stocks, Axion has good potential for a pop or, otherwise, is a low risk tax loss. It's never too early to offset profit in what looks like a volatile year end market.

     

    There is always next year.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    jakurtz and HTL: Where is ATDF located? King of Prussia, PA?
    11 Sep 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Something to incorporate into whatever AXPW stockholder behavior theory the reader has---if Axionistas really do hold 50 million shares or so, that makes them a huge force. Collectively, the biggest force (not counting the upcoming, hopefully, strategic investors), 10x the size of the estimated remaining private placement holders, for example.

     

    But they are NOT all strong, bottom-feeding, long-term holders. We have seen some posters come and go within just a six month period, some longer term holders have bailed, and some others have implied they will sell down by YE if there's no major news, and some for tax selling of losses.

     

    Probably the 2nd biggest group is the 2/3/2012 placement purchasers. Perhaps they're 20+ million shares still. The lower the price goes, the more of those shares get peeled off and sold, especially as we near YE.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The point with SS is they couldn't have bought at close to $.30 during the period from January 1 through June 30 when a grand total of 3.3 million shares traded on days where the closing price was less than the $.35 February offering price.

     

    During that period the total number of shares that traded on days that had a low of $.30 or less was only 1.7 million, and even the best of funds can't consistently buy at the low.

     

    My working assumption is that Blackrock wasn't satisfied with TG's BMW timelines because that relationship was a big consideration for the 2009 buyers. Heck, it was a big consideration for those of us who consented to the forced conversion of our preferred stock.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    MrI,

     

    I think Axionista holdings are closer to about 15 million shares, with the 5 largest Axionista shareholders probably owning over a 1/3 of that.

     

    If someone wants to do a roll call privately, I'm open to being wrong... but I think we're overestimating how many shares we collectively own.

     

    That said, I like the diversity of holders here, and each one is important... on the road to getting to that 50 million mark.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Well, if it is Blackrock selling hard (plus retail) then your prediction of the clouds breaking could still hold true. I believe they operate around the Federal fiscal year cycle and New Year's is just 20 days away.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    For those inclined to do a share count of how much Axionistas hold, please e-mail your share count to Axionistas@mail.com

     

    Names, user names, and such are optional, and not required. Privacy will be respected.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    I think you'll be surprised.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Futurist conducted the last survey in December 2011.

     

    With 31 people responding he got a total of 5 million or more. I guessed at least 8.5 million were held by Axionistas at the time. JP believed 32 million shares were held by followers of this blog.

     

    End of concentrator 36: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Beginning of concentrator 37: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I have doubled my holdings since I reported my shares.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Near the end of concentrator 37, Futurist reported an additional 300,000 shares were bought by 8 of those who had already reported.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    I didn't get enough "likes" on my comment that, "major funds use AXPW to lose money." The only explanation is that no one got my sarcasm because I think I was hilarious.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    I'm going on record that a formal talley should not be done, or at least published in this blog. I have just PMed my reasonings to JS.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Don't know (yet). There's a few ATDx listings, but nothing with "F" at the end yet.

     

    There's been some chatter on the web, and here, that it replaced "AUTO" (the national NBBO board?).

     

    If it's one of the ATDx family, it would be "Automated Trading Desk Brokerage Services", listed in Mt. Pleasant S.C.

     

    There's a post out there saying ETrade and UBSS use it, but I don't know if it's valid.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. Just a theory that was shot down today when I talked with JP.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    HTL, several posters here have mentioned that ATDF earlier this year replaced AUTO for their orders made thru at least a couple of brokerages, such as TD Ameritrade (including myself), Fidelity and Scottrade. ETRF is Etrade. Not sure who Schwab goes thru--anyone know? Those 4, plus UBS (thru UBSS, I presume) probably acct for a lot of the retail volume. Haven't heard a peep outta any Axionistas regarding Merrill or MSSB. See my post from a couple weeks ago for my MM observations--was intended as a starting point reference.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    My Fidelity trades have gone through ATDF, and previously went through AUTO.

     

    Speaking of which ... ARGHHHHH

     

    I was high bidder at .2911 on ATDF (saw the price go up when I made the 5K bid)

     

    What happens? See a 1000 share at .2911, and it's not to me. I don't know if the market maker is allowed to add a bid "with me" but as usual only show the 5K Bid, and then take the trade. No other MM showed that high at that time.

     

    This is where it's really aggravating not to be able to tell which market maker is executing a trade.

     

    ARGHHH 2
    I bump to .2912. an 11K trade at that price happens and I don't get filled. But this time (and I didn't notice exactly when it happened) UBSS has matched my bid, but for 10K. But I was still ahead of them in terms of time. They've since moved up to .2913.

     

    Does anyone know if someone bids the same price as you, but for more shares, they get filled first, even if their "match" came later?
    11 Sep 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    WTB,

     

    Just keep playing leap frog and we will soon be back above 30 cents! :-)
    11 Sep 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz I laughed and Liked it
    11 Sep 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1755) | Send Message
     
    Anecdotal, but I have roughly twice is much as I had at the beginning of the year. ISTM, several of us fit this category.
    11 Sep 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1755) | Send Message
     
    Don't worry, Jak.... I get you...
    11 Sep 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    MrI: "See my post from a couple weeks ago for my MM observations--was intended as a starting point reference".

     

    Links aid the process of finding older stuff.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: the only thing I can offer, from what I've been told, is that unless there's an exact match on size and price on the market-maker where your order appears, it's catch-as-catch-can by the market-makers.

     

    E.G. Recently as I had the first bid at a certain level and got bypassed, my order was listed on ETrade's MM. When I asked why I didn't get filled when I saw volumes 6-7 times my size go by, I was told that no match came into ETrade.

     

    What this told me was that ETrade was lazy that day, or greedy, and didn't do what was needed to make the trade on the other market-maker(s).

     

    I guess with trading volume so low these days, across all stuff generally, the brokers are fighting for market share and don't want to let any orders go off their board if they can help it.

     

    But that's only a guess. I have been told that OTC has a lot of leeway in what they do.

     

    However, when I enter an order that matches one displayed, it seems to reliably execute.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Dananie
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Likewise.
    11 Sep 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Maybe a non-ADTF MM got an offer to sell at my (best bid) price, and they filled it at that price, but they didn't feel compelled to then sell it to me on ADTF for the same price.

     

    As it turned out today, they could have sold what they bought for a better price later in the day.

     

    For the 1K trade, It's also possible they had bid(s) that matched my price (but wouldn't be displayed on Level II,) possibly received before my bid, on that MM and they filled their own customer.

     

    For the 11K trade, perhaps they're allowed to fill their customer's orders if they bid the same price ... even if they did so later than I did, but not if their bid would have been less than mine.
    11 Sep 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    It sounds like you might be sitting square on the bid. If that's the case you're trying to buy stock for the same price the market makers are willing to pay, instead of leaving a spread for the market makers. It's a good strategy to never get filled unless an exact match goes through the house that's doing your clearing.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Welll yes, I was the best bid. If I raised my price to allow them some profit, I'm still the best bid ...and since I'm bidding at least 5K shares, everyone knows ...

     

    Are you suggesting I bid less than 5K, and over the best bid?

     

    (and hope no one else is doing the same thing, because if we together add up to over 5K at that magic price, then the market maker has to show it, right?)

     

    I tried 4999 once ... didn't work ... guess someone else was bidding something at my price for that MM.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Market maker mechanics have always been a bit of a mystery to me and I've always suspected the first thing they do in the morning is cut the head off a black chicken, but I do know that making at least a small spread on every trade is something they consider important.
    12 Sep 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    and go bears
    9 Sep 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    What does J-E-T-S spell? ;)

     

    That said - here's two of my favorites all time all football: Walter Payton and Mike Singletary - class acts, not to take anything away from Butkus or Uhrlacher.

     

    enjoy the season.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Loved seeing Packers beat at Home ... but now they're going to be desperate to avoiding starting 0-2 at home, looking up at 2-0 Bears, so as a Bear Fan, this Thursday's game just got even tougher.

     

    Should be entertaining ... Bears have discovered offensive Football! Who knew?

     

    Mayascribe, home you didn't re-injure the shoulder during the Broncos-Steelers game ... also quite entertaining!
    10 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1109) | Send Message
     
    The bears are still the bears. Go Pack!

     

    Btw, dated a girl from Naperville North back in College (UW-Madison). She was fun. ;)

     

    Bigger college football fan. My badgers have struggled this year after some success and fired the new o-line coach today after the second game. Rare in college football.

     

    Breaking in 7 new coaches this year. Might be a long one.
    10 Sep 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Da Bearsss r not da Bearsss this year. For the first time in memory, the offense may be better than the defense. Imagine that. What's the over/under for Thurs' game? 100 pts?
    10 Sep 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Amen Brother...Amen! Go Pack!!
    That being said, you can't complain about the Badgers. At least they are looking better than my Hawkeyes after the pathetic way they played against Iowa State.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    packers can't just jam the bear WRs at the LOS. 0-2 after thurs.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Lab: I once met Barry Alvarez, with Lou Holtz. Also have Russell Wilson on my fantasy team. But I bleed scarlet and grey.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Greetings fellow Badger. That place has a lot of memories especially Union South where I spent most of my waking hours. Have not been back for 40+ years, miss that place.
    10 Sep 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1109) | Send Message
     
    The old union south is no more as of last year. Replaced with a beautiful building that is more Memorial union than Union South. If you haven't been back in 5 years you would struggle with the changes to campus. 40 years is a whole another world. Many buildings have familiar names but are new buildings in nearby places.

     

    I grew up a Badger fan, became a Badger, moved away and have returned and cannot think of a better place to raise my children. Hopefully they will be Badgers as well. Taking my oldest son to his second game next Saturday. He'll be three in October. He probably won't remember any of it and we won't see much of the game but in the end life is about experiences and some of my favorite childhood experiences I had growing up were with my Grandfather on Badger Saturdays.

     

    Re the Pack: They were fortunate with their record last year as the stats behind were more of a 12-4 type team. I think they regress. Chicago may have more weapons this year, but as long as Cutler is your QB I'll still bet against him.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    " I grew up a Badger fan, became a Badger, moved away and have returned and cannot think of a better place to raise my children. "

     

    I agree. Madison is indeed a good place to raise a family. I raised mine in the Suburb of Los Angeles. They all turned out fabulously but none follow my footsteps, an engineer.
    11 Sep 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    Couple Abstracts from some upcoming Axion presentations.

     

    http://bit.ly/P6Bck9

     

    http://bit.ly/P6BaZE
    9 Sep 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: those look like they may be the very catalysts Axion needs. My presumption is that "real world" statistics, a la the "white papers" detailing test results, will be presented.

     

    If so, at last "the evidence is incontrovertible"!

     

    xxx <-- fingers crossed.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The AES Conference is late October, a full month after Axion does it's ELBC presentation.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Maxwell was about the biggest name (to me) sponsor (so far) for this conference: http://bit.ly/PWoa7v

     

    EDIT: But it is in San Diego :-) So maybe they'll get some attention that way!

     

    Though there is an "activated carbon" company:
    http://www.haycarb.com

     

    The Demand Response talk seems pretty broad ... from the PowerCube to the Residential Hub. I would have preferred the focus on the higher end and leave the Hub to Rosewater ...

     

    Maybe once they get actual pricing from PJM they'll hit the circuit focusing on the PowerCube.

     

    I guess it's the season ... here's another conference that caught my eye:
    http://bit.ly/Pim5FQ

     

    the very last talk is from SEPTA folks.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Stefan

     

    Probably alluded to earlier, my apoogies.
    Re Axion presentations...where....
    10 Sep 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Stefan

     

    ooops...a p o l o g i e s...and meant to ask the source of presentations?
    10 Sep 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    no problem, just getting back to a terminal ... here is a link to the conference

     

    http://bit.ly/OmuBVL

     

    10 Sep 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    2 minute video of Joe Pic with the Hub at CEDIA:

     

    http://bit.ly/O6D3CJ.mailto=

     

    It's from Rosewater's website News page article which talks about the CE Pro Best award, which we already know about:

     

    http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
    9 Sep 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mr I and Joe Pic.
    10 Sep 2012, 02:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Whoa! Did you notice?! Did you catch it"?! "This battery will last well over 100K cycles".

     

    Bold claim but we know if conditions are right, we've tested to that point and beyond. But it is *not* was has been put out there before.

     

    Slip up or intentional based on knowledge?

     

    Maybe it's "what is a cycle" in the HUB's case? Certainly not 100% DOD and back?

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Multiple simultaneous inputs seems to be a perfect application for military applications in remote theaters as well. I wonder ...
    10 Sep 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    "The winners of the CE Pro BEST Awards were chosen by a panel of credible industry leaders " ...

     

    Did they really need to add the adjective "credible?"

     

    Really???!!!!
    10 Sep 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    "The Residential Energy Storage Hub will be available in September 2012."

     

    As Ronnie used to say ... "there they go again."

     

    If it's not UL certified, it's not available in my world.

     

    I REALLY wish they would stop doing this .. it's eroding my trust in them as a partner.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday, I shared a wonderful conversation with Mario Bottero, of Rosewater. The RW booth attracted a lot of curious dealers, who according to Mario, "Got it," about the HUB and what it can do.

     

    Countering what I expected and had earlier written in regards to clients not traveling to the CEDIA Expo, Mario shared with me that several clients were there in attendance with their local dealers.

     

    Mario also shared what Al Marshall reported, that Rosewater will be attentive to the very first installations, making sure the HUB is installed and working seamlessly. Perhaps via my own experience of being a restaurateur, I would compare this to a "soft opening" -- a very smart strategy.

     

    It seems Rosewater left this event very enthused, as in their expectations of the show were exceeded.

     

    The UL certification is still on course for approval later this year.

     

    Betting Joe Pic only needed one take in the above vid! Thanks for, eeee, aaaa, "Pic-ing" that one up, Mr I.
    10 Sep 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Wonder what the dealer markup will be ... but probably to their target customers it doesn't matter.

     

    Wonder whether the UL certification process differs much between "large" systems that include Grid Tied inverters and "small" home electronic systems (which I'm guessing is what Rosewater mainly has experience with.)

     

    Note that ZBB ended up using ETL, not UL directly:

     

    "received Edison Testing Laboratory (ETL) listing to Underwriters Laboratories (UL) 1741 standard for its 125 kW grid-tie inverter module of the ZBB EnerSection™ power and energy control center:"

     

    http://bit.ly/O8XRto

     

    No idea whether there are more "ETLs" out there.

     

    No idea how good Indy is at managing the process, or whether experienced management makes much difference ... there seems to be (my inference from watching the ZBB trials) a bit of a supply v. demand issue w.r.t. time to certification, but to be clear, I'm just hand waving here ... not having experienced the process first hand.

     

    You would expect the big boys (like Eaton or Emerson for example) to be the best at doing exactly the right thing in exactly the right way to make it as fast as possible.
    10 Sep 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (287) | Send Message
     
    I was pretty impressed with that statistic as well, HT. It's hard not to get a little excited about this product.
    10 Sep 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    ETL is fine. They are simply a notified body, aka test house--there are several test houses that are approved to test against UL1741: UL, CSA, TUV, ETL, et. al.

     

    The standard (in this case a UL standard) and the test house are two different entities.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: "Did they really need to add the adjective "credible?"

     

    Had to think about that. Yes!

     

    I made this decision based on thinking of other "industry leaders" like Goldman Sachs, J. P. Morgan Chase, ... Some "industry leaders" are credible, others not so much. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    If my math serves correctly, taking the batteries from zero to an 80% state of charge in under 20 minutes will require a sustained charge rate of over 168 Amps.

     

    This is an important fact because there's a huge difference between being able to feed that kind of current into a battery for short intervals like a 20 second braking event and being able to keep the current at high levels for 20 minutes.

     

    To put it into perspective, the "Supercharger Network" that Tesla's planning to unveil sometime this month will operate at 200 Amps.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    "If my math serves correctly, taking the batteries from zero to an 80% state of charge in under 20 minutes will require a sustained charge rate of over 168 Amps."

     

    Thanks for that info catch and calculation, JP.
    10 Sep 2012, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: No sweat! IIRC, we've heard it take as high as 400 amps, but don't know the details (duration, etc.).

     

    Sounds like there's "room for growth there".

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2812) | Send Message
     
    JP, I do not understand your (actually, Joe's) math.

     

    80% of 12kwh is 9.6kwh. With a 10 kw charger, that will take about an hour (with charging losses). 10kw charging circuit divided by 120 volts is 83 amps.

     

    168 amps at 120 volts is about 20kw, twice the capacity of the ResHub.

     

    Musk's recent interview talked about 100kw Superchargers, which at 120 volts is 833 amps (highly unlikely because of the size and expense of cables). The Supercharger undoubtedly will run at much higher voltage; such as 480 volts (206 amps).
    10 Sep 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The Tesla Supercharger will apparently use a 90 kW 440 volt line.

     

    http://bit.ly/M5Sadm

     

    I didn't work my way through the control electronics. Instead I separately calculated the amperage required to restore an 80% SOC in 20 minutes.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2812) | Send Message
     
    Whoa, HTL! You are comparing 30HT 12 volt "spec" (as in speculative, not specification) vs a 24 battery Hub system at 120 volt input.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Rick: Oh! You mean the 400 amp? Yep. Got carried away.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2812) | Send Message
     
    I exchanged some emails with Mario at RoseWater, and clarified some math. The "20 minutes to 80% capacity" comment in the video refers to the high charge rate of the Bio-Carbon batteries. The Residential Hub, however, does not have sufficient charging circuitry to charge that fast, and would take approximately one hour to charge to 80%. Full, 100% charge would take longer, and the Bio-Carbon batteries (like all batteries) charge at a slower rate to completely full than the same rate possible while partially discharged. I do not have an estimate of total charge time.

     

    As a practical matter for an on-grid application, I do not think 20 minutes vs 1 hour matters at all to customers.

     

    In other comments, Mario was very positive about the response from the CEDIA show. There were requests for even higher powered units, such as 100kw (10 units ganged together). That is quite a house!
    12 Sep 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    "I exchanged some emails with Mario at RoseWater, and clarified some math. The "20 minutes to 80% capacity" comment in the video refers to the high charge rate of the Bio-Carbon batteries. The Residential Hub, however, does not have sufficient charging circuitry to charge that fast, and would take approximately one hour to charge to 80%. "

     

    Thanks for sharing the info from your follow up, Rick. It is helpful. But, again raises RW PR cred concerns.
    12 Sep 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick, for communicating with Mario.

     

    10 units x 24 batteries/unit = 240 batteries = 1/2 of a yard slug. Wow. Their literature says they can string a up to 5 together. Did Mario say that RW might up that to 10?
    12 Sep 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    "10 units x 24 batteries/unit = 240 batteries = 1/2 of a yard slug."

     

    Maybe not 1/2 a slug. IINM, the NS999 yard slug is built around 1,080 batteries.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://bit.ly/OgWQQ6
    12 Sep 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    10 HUBs would be a quarter of a yard slug.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    Why not buy a power cube instead?
    12 Sep 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Yep, thx for the correction guys.
    12 Sep 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    "Why not buy a power cube instead?"

     

    My understanding from RoseWater is that the circuitry for a Hub is set-up for residential/small business use whereas the circuitry for a PowerCube is set up more for industry. Therefore, for a homeowner, you are better off stringing Hubs together than buying a PowerCube.
    12 Sep 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Aesthetics?

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2812) | Send Message
     
    Some clarifications:

     

    Mario did not say whether they could/would supply a Residential Hub with 10 units. His comment was simply that there was some interest for very large units.

     

    Re Power Cube vs Residential Hub: The ResHub is a double inverter design. Consequently, it delivers very high quality power, has about double the electric loss of a single inverter design, and is intended for a less price-sensitive market. The Power Cube is designed for "good quality" (not "very high quality") power, such as offshore oil platforms, grid stabilization, behind the meter load leveling, etc. Those markets are likely to be much more price and operating cost sensitive than ResHub markets.

     

    Example for operating cost differences:

     

    A ResHub will convert/invert the all power going through it. So a 5 kw load will continually lose 24/7, say 10%, or 0.5 kw. (This is my guess at operating loss, not an official specification).

     

    A PowerCube when not discharging will have a very low load to support the electronics (BMS), perhaps less than 1%. (Again, not an official number). When actually discharging, the loss may be about 5%. Much of the time the PowerCube is "idle", not actively charging or discharging.
    12 Sep 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, we are still unclear on what inverter is packaged with the PowerCube (someone correct me). The Princeton has all of the features we see in the Hub except the power conditioning Rick points out. They even have a 10KW model. I am looking forward to the day when AXPW has a "Products" page (or am i?)
    12 Sep 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    9/7/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from my instablog.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 187, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 258695, AvTrSz: 6633
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3098, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3034
    # Buys, Shares: 22 92670, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3053
    # Sells, Shares: 17 166025, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3023
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.79 (35.8% "buys"), DlyShts 5000 (1.93%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.01%

     

    Again, I'm really interested in the short sales and "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" today, as I was yesterday. The header of the new instablog (linked at the bottom of this comment) contains some current thoughts on it. In summary, if we hadn't had a change in behavior on 8/17 and subsequently, I would be looking for downward price movement. But the nature of the change makes me wonder if behavior is about to change, for at least the short-term.

     

    The buy percentage recovered some already, although it is still below all of its averages. Average trade size remains in the area that I believe is retail-trade and daily short sales hit an extreme low (see the header of the new instablog) and volume is piddling around its averages, being slightly to the downside ATM, probably not bad for a Friday.

     

    The combination of all that with price holding at $0.30 makes me ... alert for a small move up to begin.

     

    You may recall that recently I felt a change was coming and it appeared in the form of a small price drop. But we are in a descending trading channel and just exited a triangular formation that foretold the likelihood of a change. The change has just begun and I think it's important to see if we move down towards the falling support line or begin to establish a higher bottom range here.

     

    I commented on this in FPA's new instablog. So I won't repeat that here. See http://bit.ly/NkenLr

     

    I started a new version of my intra-day statistics charts with a discussion of daily short sales in the header. Some my find it useful.

     

    http://bit.ly/P47ege

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Anybody else notice that APH has a new follower that suggests something?

     

    "GrimaldiElectric"

     

    No bio, but I have my suspicions with that "handle" that it may be one of Joe's (potential?) customers.

     

    If so, I think "Thasa gut knews"!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Paz7Sg

     

    Welcome Angelo... and if you live in northern NJ, he's the only electrician you'll ever need.
    10 Sep 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Any new followers should not be concerned: we´re not stalkers, just intellectually curious (or desperate) and with too much time free time.
    10 Sep 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I remember having a similar experience once at a World Science Fiction Convention. In this case I was directing the Art Show, and went to the Staffing center to round up the 12 volunteers who were going to help me setup the show. They were mostly young teens, the oldest perhaps 18 years old, and were bubbling with enthusiasm. Leading them back through the convention center maze to the loading docks where our delivery truck waited with all our gear, we came across a group of very conservatively dressed men and women standing in an empty room holding a loud discussion (I hesitate to say "argument"). The group included 5 or 6 world famous authors, several literal rocket scientists working for NASA, a US Senator, and a very worried and harrassed young lady who I knew was our group's VIP liason.

     

    As a member of the convention board, I felt it behooved me to see what I could do to help her out, so I interjected my large body into the press and inquired as to what was the controversey...

     

    Turns out they were scheduled for a panel to be held in the empty room (I mean empty, no chairs, no tables, nothing) in 15 minutes, and the hotel staff had NOT set up the room.

     

    My response, having just traversed the service corridors and seen mountains of gear stacked along the path, was to say "No problem", and I led my band of workers through a door neatly labeled "Employees Only" where we found the furnishings needed and started carting them back into the room. I detailed the Liason to show the kids where to put everything, and stayed in the door to hold it open and help with the more bulky items.

     

    Imagine my surprise when I handed off a heavy folding table to some waiting hands, and discovered I was looking at a US Senator with a big grin on his face. The VIPs lent a hand, and soon the room was ready for business.

     

    This blog is eerily similar, and the new entry here should take note that preconceived notions as to status, knowledge and cooperation are almost certain to fall short of reality.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    A good story. I'm always impressed by folks with status that (apparently) aren't overly impressed with their own status. I know there's many, but also many of the opposite persuasion.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    (Reuters) - General Motors Co sold a record number of Chevrolet Volt sedans in August — but that probably isn't a good thing for the automaker's bottom line.

     

    http://reut.rs/TIw2NQ
    10 Sep 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Build for $90k, sell for $40k. Make up the difference on volume.

     

    Brilliant business strategy!

     

    D
    10 Sep 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm...

     

    Kind of like the kid who traded
    - 1 quarter for 2 dimes
    - 2 dimes for 3 nickels
    - and 3 nickels for 4 pennies

     

    Man, that was a hilarious joke when I was in elementary school.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >D.McHattie ... If you used the same sort of GM cost basis as that article implied to Axion, the PbC might be selling for $400 presently and costing Axion about $10k each. The first PbC off the production line would have cost in the multi-millions.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Classic. The Minderbinder Method never dissapoints.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    I think that was A123's strategy as well.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    My year-to-date numbers show that automakers sold a combined total of 4,950 Battery Electric Vehicles and 20,596 Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the US through the end of August.

     

    The big three were the Volt at 13,497 units; the Plug-in Prius at 6,081 units; and the Leaf at 4,228 units.

     

    Of course that will all change in the twinkling of an eye when Tesla delivers 5,000 cars in Q4 – won't it?
    10 Sep 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Tesla Profit Point

     

    http://bit.ly/PimNmz

     

    Admittedly, when I was taught how to teach "new math" I was befuddled, so the fact that this article baffled me should come as no surprise.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    I tried to be virtuous to pass on the opportunity to comment on Nick's latest article, but The Devil Made Me Do It.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Sep 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Selling pressure just blew through the $.30 support... Volume is up.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    TB: Yep. Let;s see if the buy:sell improves from 1:3.26 ATM as it has in the past when we hit $0.29xx. BTW, had penetration to $0.28xx last time we were in this range (only two trades IIRC) and we haven't done that yet.

     

    So this makes me think the VWAP (ATM ~$0.2984) is likely to come back to $0.30. MM has been putting some lures in the water at that price.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Bought a few more for 0.2904 and will buy more for less. Looking at the chart one could think that volume increases near the bottom in the 29/30 area (without falling through) as in the week of July 18 and Aug. 15 which some may consider a good sign.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I see the 2012 low easily within reach at $.275. That's my next add point.
    10 Sep 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    A retest of the 25 cent all-time low is not out of the question, either, especially if the year-end sellers start selling. That's a lotsa shares that might be sold and could easily delay the supply-demand change. The consensus on the inflection point will eventually be right, IMO--but so far it's in the wrong direction.
    10 Sep 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Well... when this board gets overly excited, it usually signals a price drop is coming (so far)...

     

    So... since this board seems dour today... its signaling ???
    10 Sep 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Anyone want to the tally up the volume near JP's thestreet.com article?

     

    Could imagine some of those folks selling now and for tax loss ... especially since the general market has been leaving our recent performance in the dust.

     

    But I want you bottom feeders to know I'm watching you ... talking us down here (or just not talking much at all) leading to that last chance to load up before the good news hits :-)
    10 Sep 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    I also found it interesting to read (I am usually no blog comment reader or writer) the excitement, not that I wasn't pleased too, once it moved up to 33/34 a few days ago. Now you really can get hold of the doom and gloom (no wonder with the portfolio percentages some hold).
    10 Sep 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    I should probably add that I am very pleased that I discovered AXPW and ZBB thanks to the efforts of the "locals".
    11 Sep 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Nummik: I believe it's really spelled "locos"! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Haha, that sure sounds better ;)
    11 Sep 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (475) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what the capital gains rate will be next year. The lowest will be what it is now. If I sell some of my higher prices shares from several years ago, I get to offset 15% of the losses. Next year it may be tied to earned income brackets, 28% to 35%. I'm not a tax accountant, this is just an argument to consider before reducing your risk or worse capitulation. US congress has changed taxes retroactively before, so there is no telling whats going to happen.

     

    I've been considering trading some old shares and taking a loss this year, which effectively earning a return based on tax. This is an argument to do nothing.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Okay, so you didn't see the Nat Gas boom from Fracking coming.

     

    Well bunky, how about this from a Forbes contributor?

     

    ENERGY | 9/08/2012 @ 5:42PM |12,499 views
    Gamechanging Natural Gas Tech Gets Green Light

     

    "The experiment was supposed to show that a steady flow of methane molecules could be extracted from a substance known as methane or gas hydrates submerged under the sea floor.

     

    It worked and the world moved one step closer to tapping gas hydrates, the most abundant fossil fuel resource on Earth."

     

    http://onforb.es/O90tHF

     

    Don't forget to read the comments.

     

    And no, I have no idea how far it will take to make it happen.
    10 Sep 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Can we look forward to gas stations offering buy 1 gallon get 1 free?
    10 Sep 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    wtb: I read about that, too. Also, these methane hydrates exist in ice in Alaska and Antartica, and yes, the ice really does burn.

     

    10 Sep 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    “This test was the first ever field trial of a methane hydrate production methodology whereby CO2 was exchanged in situ with the methane molecules within a methane hydrate structure . . . "

     

    :-) CO2 sequestration anyone?
    10 Sep 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Had to check that out Maya and yep - here's a video: http://bit.ly/U5cb8T
    10 Sep 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Here's a great video of the test: http://bit.ly/ROHrLJ
    10 Sep 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    If natural gas from under the sea floor is recovered at the ambient pressure there, it would seem that some percent of the work needed to convert the methane into a liquid (increasing the gas pressure) is already done. Cooling the gas using the cold ocean water as a heat sink could also save some of the energy needed in the LNG process.

     

    Just a thought.
    10 Sep 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    As I remember the existence of the methane hydrates at the poles is one of the big concerns of global warming. If all the ice melts, it releases all that methane into the atmosphere and really starts us cooking. Hopefully, this process will find something to do with the methane hydrates before that happens.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, bang!
    10 Sep 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    http://n.pr/RFAqZf
    10 Sep 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Lab: Yep, that's a major concern not talked about in the global warming community. It's almost imperative we figure out a way to use all this methane. Dang cows already emit enough.

     

    Four years ago, I proposed that Obama's platform should promise every tax paying American a cow, a bucket, a hose and a methane hybrid. The cow gives you milk in the bucket, from which you can make cheese, ice cream, and yogurt; the cow also mows your lawn, and at night, you plug the hose into the cow's arse, the other end into your ME hybrid, and then the next day you drive merrily off to work, listening to Howard Stern, all because of cow farts.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2812) | Send Message
     
    Maya, if you are listening to Howard Stern, aren't the cow farts redundant?
    10 Sep 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... The methane hydrates are a really, really big concern in the global climate change research. It has been under study since 1995 that I'm aware of. I believe it is Scripps & Shirshov that has been leading the research.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Very funny Rick, very funny.
    11 Sep 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that link.
    Not commercially viable to replace all that methane hydrate with carbon dioxide. Zillions of cubic feet - replaced.
    Where do we capture zillions of cubic feet of carbon dioxide?
    11 Sep 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1109) | Send Message
     
    From the mouths of politicians.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Rick: probably not - cow farts probably smell better that HS's breath and certainly is more pleasant than what comes out of his mouth.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    9/10/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff
    # Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 158, MaxTrSz: 46500, Vol 471534, AvTrSz: 7038
    Min. Pr: 0.2904, Max Pr: 0.3040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2969
    # Buys, Shares: 39 180101, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2973
    # Sells, Shares: 28 291433, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2967
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.62 (38.2% “buys”), DlyShts 68918 (14.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.65%

     

    Well, last time we entered $0.29xx territory (8/14-8/17) we touched $0.286 and $0.28 in two days of that four-day stretch when “buys” leading to the dip were generally higher (52.4%, 31.4%, 15.4% and 17.2%) than today's lead-in (27.6%, 21%, 35.8% and 38.2%, including today). Short percentages then leading into that period (35.2%, 23.2%, 21.3% and 2.5%) were higher, on average, than the lead-in to today (including today, 15.7%, 12.9%, 1.9%, and 14.6%). Volume leading into that decline was generally lower (in thousands, 11.3, 155.1, 207.6 and 583.0) than the lead-in to today's (234.7, 426.6, 258.7 and 471.5 including today), with that prior period's spike ending the trend and we moved back to $0.3000 - $0.3050 the next day.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” leading into that period (73.89%, 33.88%, 25.13% and 3.06%) were generally higher than today's lead-in (28.40%, 16.32%, 3.01% and 23.65%). We don't know yet if this value, but if it does this seems positive, as do the declining averages which I track in my instablog.

     

    I see that even with today's higher volume and (expected) increase in daily short sales, our VWAP didn't weaken as much as might be expected, finishing just barely below the 8/14 value of 0.2988. This was even though our “buys” percentage was still biased to the sell side. Earlier in the day we had been as sour as 1:3.96 so we recovered later as price weakened, just as we have so often. There's still buying support all around this $0.30 level.

     

    If the improved metrics mean anything, we may not see those $0.28xx. But they occurred on the second and fourth days of the period. I can't guess if the better metrics suggest we won't see that range, but it certainly seems possible.

     

    On the traditional TA front, we're still above the falling trading channel support (~$0.272), but on slightly increasing volume (bad) just a little above the 25-period average (not so bad).

     

    As I mentioned before, we need to see what happens through this week to see if we're sticking with the established descending channel or going to move the trading range up slightly. The next couple days should give us a clue.

     

    I'll get my instablog (the newer one) updated after dinner - maybe around 21:00 EDT - if anyone wants to look at the squiggles.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: P.S. 7.8K shares traded pre-market which could have a small effect on short sales percentage, depending on if we include them in FINRA-reported shorts as well as FINRA-reported volume. But with today's volume it would be minimal effect.
    10 Sep 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Basic Research the Wrong Focus for ARPA-E

     

    http://bit.ly/PeOg57

     

    includes a reference and a link to the "Bridging the Clean Energy Valleys of Death"

     

    haven't read the 2nd one yet, but it looks like a thought provoking discussion.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    http://1.usa.gov/Qb7A6X

     

    I am sure most of you have seen above link, re battery testing.
    I have only just come across it myself, in an effort to attempt to understand why the BMW testing is taking soooooo long !

     

    It would appear that OEM's can accomplish anything between 86,000-160,000 miles in a 12 m period, and well in excess of 300,000 miles in 3 years.

     

    So, I gotta ask. why so long BMW ?
    11 Sep 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    At ELBC 12 Renault explained that their standard start to finish testing period for a commodity flooded battery from a new supplier was 24 months.

     

    The PbC is about as far from a commodity flooded battery as I can imagine. It's an entirely different animal with entirely different performance characteristics.

     

    You can ask "Why so long BMW?" but I'll guarantee that their response would be "We're moving this new technology along at a record pace."
    11 Sep 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1539) | Send Message
     
    Article from BusRide magazine: Group 31 AGM is the only way to go
    http://bit.ly/Nmyatx

     

    The article is more of a sales pitch than it is journalism but it might be interesting to Axionistas.

     

    "Supercapacitors (also known as ultracapacitors), when used in conjunction with deep-cycle AGM batteries, provide effective power storage and ensure successful engine starting. Ultracapacitors can deliver their storage electrical energy at a high crank rate in a variety of extreme temperatures to provide reliable and consistent starting. Some bus fleets are adopting supercapacitor technology for cranking applications and then employing AGM battery technology to manage auxiliary loads."
    11 Sep 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    "AGM battery technology to manage auxiliary loads"

     

    And we know that those loads are the ones that really kill the battery over time. A "green" bus would do better with PbC for those loads and capacitor and/or AGM for starting. With frequent start and stop, I guess super-cap would be better than AGM.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the AONE and AXPW price lines are about to cross again ...
    11 Sep 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Nah! Buy:sell 1:1.48, improved from an earlier 1:3.6 or so earlier than usual and with bid/ask by two larger MMs: UBSS bid and FANC *presented* ask 10K $0.2913 bid 5K $0.294.

     

    More good support at >= $0.29 seems in place from 4 MMs including ATDF, PUMA, TEJS and NITE.

     

    So I think AONE will have to rise.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    John, any idea who is responsible for the never ending selling? Can this be Q selling their last pieces?
    11 Sep 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Without reports to rely on all we can do is speculate. I don't think that Quercus is selling yet because any sales prior to mid-October will require them to file another Form 144 with the SEC.
    11 Sep 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    JP, so Q is out until at least mid-October? Last I read here was mid-late September.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    They can theoretically file a new Form 144 tomorrow, although the trailing 90-day volume limitations might be pretty restrictive for a while.

     

    Until they file a Form 144, it's pretty safe to assume they're not in the market. Come mid-October, the Form 144 filing requirement will lapse and anything they do after that date will be under the radar.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    John,
    A couple questions on this topic, if I may?
    1) Quercus (trust) keeps being mentioned singly, but as I understand it, the Gelbaums (sp?) also own shares individually. So when you refer to the Form 144 requirements, how does that jibe with the individual shares owned by the Gelbaums.
    2) What is the threshold, min. shares owned or %, that triggers the limitations.
    3) Could Quercus have finished for the moment, but the individuals still be selling (under the radar)?
    Thanks, 42itus1
    11 Sep 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The Quercus Trust is the Gelbaum family trust. It was the original buyer of all the shares and it's holdings are aggregated with the individuals for reporting purposes.

     

    There are two different reporting regimes at play here.

     

    When a holder owns stock and warrants that collectively represent more than 10% of an issuer's stock, the holder must file transaction reports on Form 4. That requirement phases out immediately when the net holdings drop below the 10% level and the holder checks an exit box on a Form 4 filing. The Quercus Trust checked that exit box in its July 18th filing. – http://1.usa.gov/NljECI

     

    The second filing regime is the duty to file a notice of proposed sale on Form 144. That duty continues until 90 days after the reporting person ceases to be an affiliate. Since the July18th filing basically said "I'm no longer an affiliate" a cautious lawyer would require his client to file another Form 144 if it wanted to sell additional shares within 90 days of the filing.

     

    Quercus has never been reluctant to make its required filings and tell the market what it's doing. I see no reason to believe it would suddenly want to drop below the radar.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    Thank You for that info.
    12 Sep 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2026) | Send Message
     
    In addition, has any new fund picked up Axion? What will it take? We could use continued buying pressure for a change.
    11 Sep 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    moving to a bigger exchange is needed for funds to step in
    11 Sep 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Traditional mutual funds, yes, hedge funds, trusts, etc., no. Same as it ever was. Tons of high risk liquidity that could buy in if they desired. Sector still blows at the moment, though, which really hurts, and no chance to get in on the next placement, either, since it's intended for strategic investors only. They'll have to buy in on the open mkt like everyone else. If/when that happens, look out above. May not be for awhile, though.
    11 Sep 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Nice unexpected jump to .30 after struggling under .295 all day!
    11 Sep 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    WTB's experiences in trying to buy @.2911-.2912 hinted that some bottom feeders might have begun to think share price was starting to move higher and they best eat while the eating was good.
    11 Sep 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: Yep. And now the buyers are starting to shove. ATDF just went to the front of the bid line with a move to $0.2952 x 7,100. Meanwhile, ATDF is way up at $0.35 on the ask and effectively out of the sell-side action.

     

    BTW, had good volume on those trades that started the move up from $0.2912 - too, 64.1K.

     

    And now 2x5K $0.2961 ask.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: BTW, that was just a tad under 1/3rd of the day's volume through those trades.
    11 Sep 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    So, is the NITE bid real, or just a tool to walk up the other bids closer to their ask, which probably (I'm guessing, assuming recent behavior still holds) once again has big volume behind it?
    11 Sep 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    MrI: now way to tell, but I've not seen them withdraw any.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it was the Plunge Protection Team :-)

     

    Or the ghost of Iindelco? I recall he had a little fun with us for a brief instant a while back.

     

    I didn't play leap frog this time ... so it wasn't me!

     

    Volume still only 209.8K, so I'm not sure we're out of the woods yet.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: if it was Iindelco, he's not alone. ATDF and NITE both walking up, now aggregate 2x5K $0.2981.

     

    I love watching the buyers and sellers fight over 19/100ths of a penny, the current spread.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    A: at least not to the extent of 10k shares, which just traded at NITE's .2981 bid.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Wonder how many different folks are walking up just "inside" ATDF?

     

    Cause it's funny to see
    NITE 5K but likely more at .2981,
    ATDF 7K at .2973, and
    PUMA 5K at .294,

     

    cause if they were just individuals at each level, #2 should just drop down closer to #3, especially if NITE gives no ground in the game of Leapfrog. At some point (as I did earlier) you just say let them go, let them get filled, and be patient and get a better deal ... knowing of course you may not get filled ... today .. but there's (usually) always another day.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    And for your inspiration on being patient:
    EDIT: http://bit.ly/PnZckg

     

    or for you with short attention spans (the original:)
    http://bit.ly/OEh7k6
    11 Sep 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    wtb, remember that Level II only shows a particular MM's best bid or ask. There will often be other bids and asks not very far away from the best, for some of the MMs. ATDF is an especially good example. There may be several other bids between the best one of .2973 and .2900. Might be nice if someone here that has access to that info. I would have to open an acct with another house, and probably pay for it, since TD Ameritrade told me they don't offer that access. I'm not THAT curious.

     

    One thing that is a mini way to get some of that info--if I up my bid, I can usually see the next one down, for a few seconds, as my bid disappears briefly, then reappears at the higher price. Or I could just cancel then re-enter but that's a pain.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Strategy so interesting here ...

     

    Feeling lucky? Tax loss sellers going to hold it down and offer great deals like last year, and better than today? When will it kick in (if it hasn't already) and how long will it last?

     

    Non-Axionistas seeing need for financing coming and selling? More connected still betting that the strategic investor, while sought after, doesn't actually materialize in time?

     

    Good news while you're waiting for all that?
    11 Sep 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: a consideration: *lots* of Q4 selling last year was what I believed to be tax-loss selling, along with the other stuff. So with so much of this year having been at such a low price, are there many of those sellers left?

     

    We did have a price run up in January to $0.5999 from the low of $0.275 on 1/3, but the volumes as it peaked and then fell (on continued higher, albeit declining) volume makes me wonder if there's many left holding that would sell for tax-losses.

     

    ISTM that they *could* have been booking their losses as share price dropped, lo these many months.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Tax moves by individuals are often done late in the year, in my experience. Procrastination, hopium, uncertain shifting variables, busy lives, wash sales rules, etc. all add up to a bias towards late in year action. That being said, it can be a chaotic system--the higher the price, geometrically-ish less selling; the lower, the reverse. We go down to 25 cents and I would expect a fair amt of tax selling by individuals. We go back to 35 cents, probably a whole lot less, if any.

     

    For non-individuals, depends on their tax year end date, and tax needs, among other factors. Someone earlier today mentioned Blackrock's fiscal YE as maybe a factor in their selling speed. For sure, but since we don't even know anything about the entity/entities that holds the shares, I don't know how we'd be able to accurately determine their fiscal YE date. A lot of mutual funds, FWIW, have October and November fiscal YEs, though.
    11 Sep 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Good thoughts. I think it was Wtb that mentioned BR's fiscal year.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... There are many companies that vary their fiscal year end for different reasons. Jan 1 for companies that deal with the retail financial or just tradition, Mar 30 for companies going into seasonally weakest activity, etc. So corporate year end is a variable but the business activity and planning are attuned to the Federal government fiscal year because of regulatory or customer relationships. Activity that has no real bearing on when the corporate year end is. Only reason I'm aware of this is because I worked for a company once that relied on the Congressional budget cycle.
    11 Sep 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    After discussing it with Maya a bit, I've determined I will e-mail those inclined to participate the results of the share count survey next week. The implied request in communicating total shares via e-mail, rather than in a post in this blog, is that the numbers not be bandied about in this blog.

     

    Data provided in the e-mail will be:

     

    - number of participants

     

    - average number of shares held by each participant

     

    - average number of shares held by each participant excluding the top 5 holders participating in the survey

     

    Once again, for those inclined to do a share count of how much Axionistas hold, please e-mail your share count to Axionistas@mail.com

     

    Names, user names, and such are optional, and not required. Privacy will be respected.

     

    Critiques and different ideas welcome. Much obliged to those submitting data already.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    Jon, I likely will not be sending any info but your readers can be pretty confident that my share count falls within three standard deviations of the mean holdings reported. :-)
    11 Sep 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: "Three standard deviants"? ;-)) Is that all we've got? Is "standard deviants" and oxymoron? Are I one, or just tired?

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    "Three standard deviants"? ;-)) Is that all we've got?"

     

    :-) Me thinks we have a plethora of those.
    11 Sep 2012, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    I have a little over 40 responses so far. APH has 148 followers.

     

    I may have erred in not asking to hear from folks who own zero shares but are thinking about it - apologies to those folks as they are an important part of the equation in the average number of shares held by Axionistas (at least, in my opinion).

     

    For those who hold shares, I get the sense more than ever that for those who hold shares, most have a significant investment in Axion by their own personal standards.
    12 Sep 2012, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    while in theory 25% allocation isn't too hard for me to swallow, in practice it's much harder. that has less to do with AXPW and more to do with an over active desire for new (investment) ideas.

     

    i feel like i am convincing myself i am hedging by purchasing another stock, when really i am just flirting with a new idea.
    12 Sep 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Spitballing ...

     

    If we had people who trusted somebody to select who has access, ... a shared Google Spreadsheet where folks could make up their own identifier and maintain their own data line could be cool.

     

    Might also allow later ideas/fields to be created
    and also automate calculations

     

    I have some Canadian Miner document like this where I don't actually change it, but I see (in my Google Docs sorted file list for documents) whenever it is updated.

     

    I haven't investigated to see how much tracking of who changes individual lines is readily available to the morbidly curious ...

     

    or whether individuals can be restricted to changing only certain specified lines or sections

     

    If it's too obvious, maybe make it easy to create some anonymous email/logins for those that prefer to use them.

     

    Anyone an expert on using shared Google Docs?

     

    We must have some TFH folks who have thoughts on how to keep such things relatively private ....

     

    One thing I though about, for those willing to share, is the size of their core position and their trading position
    12 Sep 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Thinking big-picture, I think it would be very helpful at some point to replicate this blog for certain other off-the-radar stocks. Even if we end up being wrong about our investments in AXPW, I think the value of the approach/process here is outstanding and well worth repeating.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    I agree it would be great if to find a blog like this about some other off-the-radar stocks. However, this blog happened unintentionally. Replicating a chance confluence of people and events is difficult. Doesn't mean it shouldn't be tried...
    12 Sep 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Note: Access to Axionistaville is by invitation only.
    12 Sep 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    JS & Mr I: Al and I were talking about just that yesterday.

     

    I don't know where else we could find such a David vs. Goliath, almost fable-like situation on so many levels.

     

    There's little plodding nano-cap Axion Power taking on industry titans, whilst gently muscling in the idea of selling both concept and product to other industry titans.

     

    There's misunderstood lead acid vs. ballyhooed lithium.

     

    Then there's us retail investors, each unimportant individually, yet when combined have become a voracious information gathering and sharing group of short pockets buying up everything the deep pockets have to sell.

     

    I know of nothing like it elsewhere. Except, that the Axion Power Concentrator is really a child offshoot of Quick Chat, of which I know of nothing like that exists elsewhere, either.

     

    Maybe in a dozen or so years, we'll evolve into graphene-istas.

     

    Hat tip, once again, to Seeking Alpha, for allowing us Axionistas to use this social investing media website for the best price...free.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: There is something similar, but more sector oriented, than stock specific.

     

    tripleblack runs his fantastic rare earth element concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    FocalPoint Analytics has an excellent one about biotechs:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Sep 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    When I first found this concentrator, my initial thought was let's make our money in a couple of months and then start another concentrator on another stock! That was 10 months ago! However, with all the expertise and varied background here, I believe it will be natural for one or more stocks to be chosen by members of this group to follow together. Especially if a few fortunes are made on Axion. The hardest part will be finding a former insider like JP who now writes articles on the industry of the new stock.

     

    If Axion turns out the way we hope it does, I can envision there being a long term relationship with many of the investors here. People like myself who do not now have the money and time to travel to stockholders meetings would be freed up to do so. If that is the case I think we would find ways to stay in touch and work together. From what several of you have said, there has never been a group follow and invest in a stock like this concentrator has allowed us to do. I can't imagine all of these relationships just ending.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3526) | Send Message
     
    "I agree it would be great if to find a blog like this about some other off-the-radar stocks."

     

    The KNDI yahoo group seems to be another good one. There is more risk (and maybe reward) in that name. They have Arthur Pocari leading the show over there. I think JP even knows him. Caveat, AP does have a colorful background that some use against him and his stock ideas.
    12 Sep 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I figured it's moot anyway for a lot of Axionistas until AXPW starts to pay off big time. Then it's time to look for another great risk/reward opportunity. The cast of players might change a bit or a lot, but the outline has a lot of value: 1) former company major insider who still has a lot of skin in the game, time, and desire, 2) a diverse group of honest, high risk/high reward investors who are also ready, willing and able to contribute their skills and money, 3) an off-the-radar company that is only trying to change an existing major product/service, 4) major inflection points are near, etc.

     

    Will be very hard to find, but only takes a few of these in an investor's lifetime. Our numbers and diversity means we have some birddogs/scouts spread out, who can alert the group to potentials. Our reasonably compact size makes it all manageable.
    12 Sep 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: I agree. JP adds something to the APCs that will be very hard to duplicate elsewhere. He's unique and invaluable to the APC.

     

    Yesterday, I sold off half of a small-ish position in (FEED), which went up almost 200% since August 27th. I learned about FEED in Quick Chat years ago. Just got lucky with my timing, but I would never had known about this beat up Chinese stock without QC.
    12 Sep 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Jon..et al

     

    Consider me a skeptical, neophyte and suspicious investor.
    My investing "hands on" experience merely spans 3 years, but was mentally prepared for the "hands on" journey prior to 3 years ago via reading and following those "in the know" and not. (i.e followed the market for many years)

     

    Given the dynamics and the gaming that occurs in the market, and the volatility of small and micro cap stocks, are we "tipping our hand" somewhat to a growing population of lurkers (MM/funds)?

     

    Can more short term/day trader investors see our hand before or as we play via our posts...especially when the comments get more detailed?...especially given the number of shares held by the APC/John/Maya followers?...and make their moves daily.

     

    Just wondering out loud.

     

    Ready to take any "slings and arrows"...another way of learning.

     

    Jon...btw, I do appreciate your tabulating the AXPW totals.
    13 Sep 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... Please! ... Hurry! ... Contact H.T.Love's haberdasher.
    13 Sep 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    DRich: APH does have at least one "sell-side" analyst following. Probably more that can't be easily identified.

     

    TFH doing the job.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Magounsq: I've pondered the question myself many times.

     

    In every case I end up back where I started: open cooperative sharing of all information and resources (knowledge, "sweat equity", ideas and, yes even our ignorance, ...) is the best way for *investors* to fight "the market" that focuses on fleecing us.

     

    If we *trade* frequently, giving this away to "the dark side forces" certainly can hurt us.

     

    If we are mostly investing, it may help us identify better entry points, for now, and keep us from getting discouraged by "the great unknowns" that seem to be always moving stuff against us.

     

    For me, wondering "why?" is much more stressful than knowing why.

     

    I believe in the long run "we win" with this process.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... When our threshold of excitement can be measured in 1000th, even 10,000th, of a dollar and the trend is clearly down, I'll chance the attention paid by a "sell-side" analyst is just morbid curiosity.
    13 Sep 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    DRich: "... ".

     

    LoL!

     

    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    I think you'd be surprised by the number of calls I get from analysts who are trying to understand both Axion and the sector in general. The big money is still on the sidelines when it comes to storage. It sees the opportunity, but is scared by a lot of the crash and burn we've seen over the last few years. I don't know when the real money will arrive at the party, but it is definitely paying attention.
    13 Sep 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Mr Investor

     

    Great idea...valid pros and challenges...and much networking due diligence has been done via our own comments/contributions... re AXPW.

     

    I have had my eye on "what's next"...or starting to follow right now......I have found Maya's recommendation for triplejack's REE very interesting and valuable.
    I'm sure there are others...just looked at FPA biotech and SMarturin's ARNA/ACAD comments.

     

    "...moot anyway for a lot of Axionistas until AXPW starts to pay ..."
    Good point, but should not dissuade keeping the idea percolating..."as the paint dries".
    I think multitasking a bit can be of value.

     

    Certain themes/sectors worth exploring...biotech/fi... services...and of course any offshoot of energy-battery/storage...

     

    Being a cup half full person, I look forward to JP's comments on the other side of $1pp+.

     

    "Will be very hard to find, but only takes a few of these in an investor's lifetime. Our numbers and diversity means we have some birddogs/scouts spread out, who can alert the group to potentials. Our reasonably compact size makes it all manageable."

     

    Agreed...maybe we can keep this tangent in play if only for just some ideas for now.
    13 Sep 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    More to that end, John, Rudy Barrio, of Allen and Caron, said to me at the PowerCube unveiling, that there is interest from investing houses, but investing houses are more keen on buying Axion as it surges past the 20th floor, heading for the 80th, rather than getting in on the ground floor.
    13 Sep 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    I don't see anything in the information I've collected that would be useful toward negative sentiment. But, I'll run it by a couple of people before sending it out to a wider audience to make sure I don't give away any big secret that could be useful to the nefarious forces.
    13 Sep 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (287) | Send Message
     
    I suppose that shouldn't surprise me, Maya. I doubt you'll even see the talking heads on TV mentioning Axion until it's north of a few bucks and listed on a major exchange.
    13 Sep 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    Maybe it's getting late...maybe over my head (pun intended)...sarcastic context above?

     

    John/HTL...thanks for reply.

     

    Jon...no offense intended.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    No offense taken. I think we all share a common goal. I understand the concerns.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like