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  • Axion Power Concentrator 151: Sep. 15, 2012: APMarshall's Sep 2012 CEDIA Notes & Updated John Petersen Charts 261 comments
    Sep 14, 2012 10:33 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
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    Al Marshall's notes for CEDIA, September 6, 2012

    RoseWater General Update - RoseWater is focusing on Residential Hub (NYSE:RH) in the US because the high-end residential market and the US are what they know best and believe will come quickest. Eventually, they will expand internationally. At the show, folks from several Asian countries visited the booth and expressed strong interest. I didn't learn much about their other initiatives except that a university research project in Ontario is expected, in the short-term, to help size future Hub devices (2kw?).

    Residential Hub Technical - Three main electronics components: Charge Controller, Inverter, and Uninterruptible Power Supply. I took photos of each with my cell phone and they are posted at the end of these notes [APH: photos replaced with links to them for various reasons]. Note that the inverter in the RH can perform that function for solar panels, eliminating about ~25% of the cost of a solar panel system.

    Multiple hubs can be linked together although most of the examples I overheard involved a single bank of electronics being paired with up to five cabinets of batteries.

    The first hub, which is the unit at the show, was custom built by Axion in New Castle (at the electrode plant not the battery plant). Future units will be built by a third party. Suppliers may change as Axion's purchasing process is still underway. I believe the unit displayed at the show has an indoor cabinet. Future units will be outdoor capable. Inferred that each Hub will have an IP address since the device can be remotely monitored and I believe controlled. I latched onto the issue (really opportunity) that Rosewater should collect data from all the hubs and use it to assess utility power quality. This information could be used to help installers sell, particularly if smaller hubs are introduced in an attempt to go down-market.

    Competition - I didn't take the time to walk the entire show and gather info on competitors. I learned a little bit from the RoseWater folks. Pricing seemed to be in the ballpark of the closest comparable products, which really aren't that comparable. Mario pointed out that the major competitors (same guys mentioned at the annual conference) are building products aimed for the mass-market that are priced like the Residential Hub, something he believes won't work for the high-end residential market. I believe the biggest differentiator is Joe Pic's understanding of this market segment and the PbC battery.

    Competitors that approach the Hub in capabilities will likely have lithium Ion batteries, but cost will limit them to only have a small number of batteries. Competitors that use lead acid can have similar storage capacity, but their units will be very short-lived if the unit provides the same level of power conditioning as the RH.

    Note, this relates to the first question I asked: How important is the PbC's strengths in making the RH a truly differentiated product? The answer was that the batteries will be frequently tapped to provide power to fill power gaps and to accept power to eliminate power spikes. Thus, the combination of the electronics and the batteries will enable the RH to provide "perfect power" and to do it for many years. The safety aspects of the PbC are also important for indoor use as is the PbC's capability to operate outdoors. Looking at in another way, LI can't be used outdoors but is a safety risk indoors.

    Another form of competition is a device which the helpful installer called a "power conditioner". This device (costs $7-10k) apparently smooths the spike in power surges but doesn't have a storage capability to fill in the valleys and otherwise create the high quality power provided by the Residential Hub.

    I am not technical at all, so hopefully the above info is a good starting point for others who are more knowledgeable.

    Selling Residential Hub - RoseWater is very concerned about making sure the Hub is profitable for the installers. It appears that RoseWater will allow, if not encourage, installers to add some sort of markup (or give discounting) on the RH to add margin even though they will also be charging for installation.

    As I mentioned yesterday, most of the installers weren't concerned about the price. I remember one case where upon being told the price, the guy just shrugged, not even bothering to say "they'll pay it", which was the reaction from most of the folks. The most skeptical installer was a guy who agreed on the merits of the Residential Hub but thought he'd need help justifying the sale. This sparked a long and productive discussion, which in the end put him at ease.

    No one believes there will be issues selling RH to the homeowner installing $500,000 in electronics. The RH will protect and extend the life of all that equipment while adding access to renewables and a generator (generators provide low quality power so it is particularly important to fully condition that power). That's a no-brainer. The open question then becomes at what total system cost does $45k+ for a Residential Hub no longer seem automatic.

    Another factor that is good news for us is the fact that these very high-end homes tend to have unique circumstances associated with them. Often they are in isolated places that tend to have unreliable and poor quality power. Mountain homes fit this. One example was a home on a hilltop in California in an area where there are a lot of wildfires. Whenever there is a fire, the utility turns off the power in the entire area, often for an extended period. Apparently, this happens quite frequently.

    One of the most interesting things I learned came from one of the installers. After visiting the booth, I asked one if he'd be willing to take a few minutes to answer some questions for me. The gentleman and his wife ended up talking with me for at least twenty minutes and shared a lot of fascinating information and viewpoints.

    One very interesting point he made that relates to this topic was that nearly 100% of the very high-end homes being constructed today include wiring in the garage to support charging an electric car. He went on to say that 50% of these homes have the charging equipment installed. It would seem that these homeowners have come to accept electric cars to an entirely different degree than has the general public. I laughed and thought of JP when I heard this. It did make me think that RoseWater ought to market to electric car owners and purchase mailing lists of these owners if possible.

    Another point by this same installer was that he thought the biggest problem selling the RH is that installers are generally electronically oriented and tend to lack expertise and may be intimidated by electrical systems. This point indirectly came up with another installer earlier in the day who told a story about another installer who caused a great deal of damage to the electronics in a house when he tried to test a generator that he had incorrectly connected.

    As I mentioned earlier, I don't have any information to share on sales or how many sales RoseWater is expecting to make. They did share with me a number that may be a good starting point when it comes to the size of the potential market. I was told that roughly 4,000 high-end home electronic control systems like the ones sold by Crestron are sold in the U.S. each year (more on Crestron below). I believe that number is for systems valued at $100k or more (presumably doesn't include dealer installation and configuration costs of an additional 25% to 50%).

    By my math, each 1% share of that market earned by RoseWater would likely yield about $1m for Axion, with half of that being PbC related and the other half a wag on Axion's pricing of the other components.

    To better learn about these systems, I went to the Crestron booth, which appears to be the 500lb gorilla in the space based on their sales: ~$500m and presence at the show (their "booth" was 4-5 times as big as the second largest booth at the show). Privately held Crestron's products include the electronics and controls for: intercom, music, lights, climate, TV, shades, and security. At the show they were promoting their API (application programming interface) for installers to configure and customize systems. There's a recent Forbes magazine profile of the founder and CEO, who I saw at an early morning panel discussion on the future of the industry. If we want to learn about the market and potential of the Residential Hub, we should, amongst other things, try to find out as much as we can about Crestron.

    RoseWater shared the booth with a company called Energysquad.com, which is their new Maryland dealer and I believe their first. EnergySquad seems to be a mixture of distributor and dealer but because the RH units will likely be made to order, I think their role will be more as a dealer/installer. I'm not certain of that however. Most of Energy Squad's booth seemed to be devoted to LED lighting although they have a great many other products and are adding more aggressively. I haven't had a chance to research Energysquad.com beyond what I learned from talking to their folks at the show.

    Axion update mainly based on my conversation with Vani Dantam - Interest is very strong and his team is responding to a lot of inquiries/testing projects. I was not able to ascertain if activity has continued to increase beyond the high level reported in the annual meeting.

    Lots of international interest. Vani had just that morning received an inquiry from a country in the Caribbean for batteries to support a solar project. He's also had lots of interest from India although he noted that Axion would need to establish support infrastructure there.

    I sought and received Mr. Dantam's confirmation about the method JP uses to estimate PbC sales. He agreed with my statement that since Axion is charging customers for test batteries that John's PbC sales estimate will reflect the level/trend of testing activity.

    Vani is well aware of the need to show sales before the next fund raise. He was optimistic that there would be good news before year-end. Obviously, he can't say much, but I had to voice the concern that every one of us must share.

    There is one thing I can say about the personnel issues that several people have brought up. Marketing the Residential Hub to the CEDIA audience is obviously Joe P's thing. He conceived of the product two years ago, championed it, and eventually won Mr. Granville's approval. At CEDIA, Mr. Granville and Mr. Dantam stayed in the background. They sometimes listened in on the conversations between the RoseWater people and the installers but didn't say much, if anything at all, during those conversations. They seemed to be there for the same reason I was there.

    On a related note, this is probably a good opportunity to point out the respect Joe showed to us Axionistas. He could have easily told me to go away and come back later when fewer people would be in the booth, or just have me hang back more. Instead, several times he told me to come in closer (Joe was in the process of losing his voice so it was very difficult to hear him while also keeping a respectful distance). A few of the installers seemed to take note of all the "hangers on" but none of them let it bother them. Clearly Joe understood that I was representing all of you and he thought that sufficiently important to justify allowing me to hang out in what was a relatively crowded booth.

    In conclusion, I can't say this is comprehensive. I know I'm late getting this out. I'll add more as my recollection permits and am glad to answer your questions as best I can. I'll also go and review the questions on the instablog and add here any further responses to those questions.
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    In consideration of potential bandwidth and other concerns, we've omitted the pictures that APMarshal provided in APC 150. You can revisit Axion Power Concentrator 150: Sep. 12, 2012: APMarshall's Notes From CEDIA September 2012 to read the article and view the pictures or click the below links to just view the individual pictures.

    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474164623192055-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474165613913403-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474167047484539-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-1347416800736399-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
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    John Petersen has provided price and volume charts updated through 9/14/2012.
    (click to enlarge)JP Price Chart 20120914
    (click to enlarge)JP Volume Chart 20120914
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    Axion Power Concentrator 149: Sep. 9, 2012: Rosewater Energy Hub Articles, John Petersen's Updated Graphs, have links to several recent Rosewater-related articles and earlier charts from John Petersen.
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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    Testing Summary Statistics On Stocks. FocalPoint Analytics has begun an instablog that will apply statistical disciplines to metrics of stock activity to produce summary indications of likely actions going forward. Well worth a visit.
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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (261)
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  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/wuInYc
    14 Sep 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on getting the gold WTB
    14 Sep 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Last call for the Axion shareholder count

     

    E-mail your share count to: axionistas@mail.com

     

    95 individuals have responded. Thanks to each and every one of you.

     

    Haven't responded yet? No amount of shares is too small or too large to be included. Please respond by Sunday at
    7pm in Paris
    6pm in London
    1pm in New York
    10am in Los Angeles

     

    (I don't mean to not include our Asian shareholders in the timezone list, its just that it will already be Monday in Hong Kong, Beijing, Tokyo, etc., and I know I've already heard from a few folks over there, so I figure they're on top of things)

     

    Results of the count forthcoming next week. I think I've said everything else in earlier posts.
    14 Sep 2012, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    Can't wait for the numbers!
    15 Sep 2012, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    I understand the feelings of the investors that are in Axion for quite some time and that have lost a huge percentage of their money, the tone again is desperation and I fear for those holders, with some more selling or just time passing by some will shout "capitulation" and throw in the towel in disgust, then the accumulation will be completed and the stock price is ready to move to 5, 10 or more (dollars not cent).
    15 Sep 2012, 03:42 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I do not hear desperation. I feel disappointed that sales have not risen faster, but sales are on the rise. I feel restless that the world needs the PbC and isn't using them now, but word is being spread around the world (ELEC). I feel helpless that someone wants to practically give away their Axion stock and I cant purchase more.
    But desperation I do not feel or hear from others.
    The company is executing its business plan. Slowly and methodically. Maybe they are right and maybe they are wrong. That is the way of the microcap world.
    15 Sep 2012, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    I would also say that the only investors who have 'lost' any money are those that have sold.

     

    I still have all my shares and have 'lost' nothing.

     

    D
    15 Sep 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The capitulating types don't hang around long and have a tendency to exit within a couple months. The core is more intent on smiling as their Nubian slave girls carry their litter to the bank.
    15 Sep 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Sam Walton would be proud of your attitude D. McHattie. He said the same thing in '87 after a reporter asked him what it felt like to lose a billion on WalMart in a day.
    15 Sep 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Futurist

     

    Agreed...disappointmen... expectations.
    There is an honest ebb and flow...peaks and troughs...of the market action and comments.
    An absolute emotional roller coaster ride for many.
    Too much due diligence and data provided by many that validate the AXPW story to be desperate or fall prey to trolls who find their way to stick their comments in under the radar screen of most.

     

    I find the vast majority of the comments here a breath of fresh air...facts ...figures...links...yes, ups and down of emotions (normal).

     

    I follow the TSLA articles out of curiosity...am I missing something?...will there be some break through...what will be life after the current TSLA...what will be the TSLA-Li story a year from now...or even by EOY?

     

    But the TSLA articles are rife with mostly emotional comments and personal attacks for "non believers"..."reading" but little or no "listening".

     

    AXPW has the better ride...no pun intended.
    15 Sep 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    For a micro-cap dealing with really sloooow moving prospective customers, investor churn is to be expected. I'm pleasantly surprised it's so low, actually. Yes, we have a couple of posters that clearly are close to throwing in the towel, as we've seen just about every quarter this year. But we've also gained several new investors and probably a lot more lurkers with the Q2 conf. call, TheStreet article, the CEDIA show and the resulting resetting of the expectations clock that you get when an old disappointed investor is replaced with a fresh face.
    15 Sep 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >nummik ... I agree with Futurist's sentiment. I've no despair with the company or product but am exasperated about the stock holdings of large financing investors and slow customer acceptance (years longer than I thought) . These are 2 different categories. Been here for 5 years now with tranches down in the 90%'s, but I'm not in despair about it. I've discovered this is life in microcap land. If this ever turns and goes higher, between here and a dollar I'm planning to double my holdings or at least help to bid this higher.
    15 Sep 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Hard to know how many have thrown in the towel. Some do it loudly, others just stop posting and go away. Some never posted at all.

     

    As for not having actual losses, I think that ignores "opportunity cost." You could have instead bought a big chunk of Apple the last year, rode it up, sold it last week, and reinvested here and be smiling all the way to the bank.

     

    Just here, you could have sold the rips a couple of times, and waited to buy back even more shares with the same dollars.

     

    Good People and Companies (resisting Romney joke) get screwed in the markets all the time. It's not a fair fight. Shorts are not always out to get you ... sometimes they're right and you need to pay attention.

     

    People talk about sell discipline all the time. But I think it's different for Development Stage companies and assuming you have an appropriate weighting for your financial situation. This last part we almost never talk about here ... we want people to have the best information, but we can't expect them to be "long term" if they can't sleep at night. Maybe we should consider putting something about that in the "standard preamble."

     

    I recently sold the rip in KNDI. What to do now? Here or There? Was overweight there, especially given the China "opaqueness." Now I'm underweight ... but what to do??!!! CEO was just in Atlanta meeting the peeps ... very smart move. AXPW and KNDI both have very big potentials ... IF ....
    15 Sep 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Sam Walton has not lost because he still had HIS company but very few here have a seat on the board or work in the company and are therefore able to influence the turn of events.
    I just mention this to maybe slightly curb the enthusiasm of some that might decide to go all in with their pension account because it has to be a happy ending.
    That said, let the rise begin ...
    15 Sep 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    D McHattie,
    I said the same thing to my wife in 2009 when our 403b was down 40%. By 2011 it was back to where it was pre-2009 because we made sound investments and because we didn't sell just because we had lost money on paper.
    15 Sep 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    For a year and a half I have let loose unbridled optimism on this board always giving management the benfit of the doubt when it came to NS, powercube sales, the capital raise, and the 300% yoy growth. All that jovial talk did little for the stock or my wellbeing so I have decided to become a bit of a cynic just to see where that might get us. Both attitudes are correct and sincere...I think. It is also kind of liberating.

     

    ...Also, I hope to leave the dark powers controlling the stock scratching their heads.
    15 Sep 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Luke, "Is the Dark Side stronger?"
    Yoda, "No. Quicker, easier, more seductive." "Once you start down the dark path, consume you it will. As it consumed Obi-Wan's apprentice."
    Luke, "Vader".

     

    ;-)
    15 Sep 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    As an FYI, if you ever see a blank on your like number instead of a zero or another number, just log out and log back into SA. That should clear the flag.
    16 Sep 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    Emotion is the enemy of rational thought.

     

    Jak, I try my best to keep the emotions out of it. I never actually succeed but I benefit from the attempt.

     

    LT, there are few things better than a well-placed star wars reference. Sage advice from our little green friend.

     

    D
    16 Sep 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    If you want an example of churn ... Take a look at AONE last week! I will stick with what we have, thanks very much!
    15 Sep 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    I'm resolved to seeing three, maybe four, and possibly even five events of importance coming for Axion during the next five or six months.

     

    1) The "booking" of the $400,000 + $75,000 from Norfolk; meaning that Norfolk has gone ahead with retrofitting the yard switcher. I know wtblanchard has his Altoona contact, but...doesn't NSC have a similar yard for retrofitting in Roanoke? As far as I know, these batteries have yet to be shipped. Why?

     

    2) The selling of PbC to NS for their over-the-road locomotive. In conjunction with the above comment, isn't NSC laying new track on their Crescent line, to improve not only fuel savings, but also to allow the trains to travel more quickly and efficiently?

     

    3) A capital raise -- likely to occur 4Q, or 1Q next year. It was stated that this next round of capital will be (paraphasing) "project oriented." I'm not so sure. It would be a nifty move to attract a "strategic partner" while addressing going concern cash available issues. The longer Axion waits to nab a strategic partner, or partners, offers less leverage for Axion to get a higher price per share. I also believe Axion will want this cash posted on the books before this year ends, for accounting reasons. However, there's a poker slant, because if Axion waits until next year, just maybe some more attractive news will be forthcoming, raising share price.

     

    4) The announcement of BMW commencing fleet testing. I'm not sure how the market will react to this coming news, most likely during next February. It's going to only be about 200 batteries sold, however, once fleet testing begins, it's pretty much THEN assumed that BMW will use the PbC in production models. But even then, 200 batteries does diddly squat for both the top and bottom lines.

     

    4a) Hyundia or Toyota announcing that they are fast tracking the PbC for stop/start models, maybe even Ford. I don't expect GM to announce anything.

     

    5) When FERC is finally figured out, we may get a pop from some "shovel ready" projects, all pigeon-holed until the bean counters can actually come up with some kind of increased performance/ROI calculations.

     

    6) The unknown. Last year, the PowerCube/PJM/Viridity Energy unveiling/partnership caught myself and I'm guessing nearly every Axionistas off guard. Wouldn't surprise me that something else is out there, and this time, it will involves sales, because IIRC, there was something like $660K worth of PbCs that were sold to someone, or more someones -- could this be the strategic partner?

     

    So as we wait, we do have these above items to either fuss over, or embrace.

     

    I'm in the embracing club.
    15 Sep 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Want to add one more thing of significant importance. Sooner or later, the deep pockets will be out of shares to sell.
    15 Sep 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Although Special Situation, who was completely out at one point, came back. They, or more like them, could cause a lot of havoc if the want to. It really doesn't take that much money to do it; there could be a few other "Mini-Mes" out there ...

     

    http://bit.ly/Orx8Za
    15 Sep 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    As I understand it, the Roanoke operation is significantly smaller than the Altoona one.

     

    Unknowns:

     

    Was there a hangup in the Penn State redundant testing? Summer schedules there? Wish we had a contact there!

     

    Which state, Pennsylvania or Virginia would be cheaper to hire new employees that might be needed to ramp up this project?

     

    How much of Altoona's biz is non-NSC? Did they chew off more than they could handle and have to finish that first?

     

    What are the internal NSC politics? Could they be fighting over timing and resources for a rollout plan that needs to be finalized before they start committing any (more) dollars?
    15 Sep 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "Although Special Situation, who was completely out at one point, came back. They, or more like them, could cause a lot of havoc if the want to."

     

    My thoughts for some time now. But to what end? profits on the 20% swing as they drive the PPS down in hopes of jumping in again with both feet? I thought this nonsense might stop with the strategic partner announcement. Whats going on here?

     

    (tin foil hat firmly in place)
    15 Sep 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    "A capital raise -- ... the longer Axion waits to nab a strategic partner, or partners, offers less leverage for Axion to get a higher price per share ... if Axion waits until next year, just maybe some more attractive news will be forthcoming, raising share price."

     

    Maya, this is a tough call indeed. In the rearview mirror, Axion should have attempted to price the last secondary after they found out that they had been passed over on the federal grant in the .50/.60s ... However, TG thought that a couple of events would occur that would increase the share value. Unfortunately, this went the other way and we ended up with placement at .35.

     

    I don't know what the right answer is, but I would hate to see the same size placement at .25 or .20.
    15 Sep 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    wtb: Thanks for the clarification.
    15 Sep 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I share your anticipation. I also wanted to mention, IIRC, Axion's relationship with NSC was a little strained many months back when TG began talks with other railroads due to the slow progress. It is conceivable that another railroad may actually be the first to road test a locomotive with PbC batteries.
    15 Sep 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1417) | Send Message
     
    Good summary.
    16 Sep 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    One other item not related that I also believe needs to be mentioned.

     

    When I started the Axion Power Concentrator series in June of 2011, I had about 160 followers. Now I have 321. Since I rarely make comment elsewhere on Seeking Alpha (except in Quick Chat and two other Concentrators), most, if not all of the "new" followers, were/are followers of the APC series. Further, I have had very few new followers since I turned the reins over to APH, after APC # 74.

     

    With Axion Power Host now at 158 followers, this proves to me what we all already know, and that is the readership of this blog is steadily growing. We were at only 75 followers or so mere months ago!

     

    The fantastic comments continue to flow....
    15 Sep 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    I am a frequent lurker, but decided to "follow" to get the number to 160... for what's its worth.
    16 Sep 2012, 03:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    For you buckyball, graphene and single atom carbon layer geeks, IBM has produced something pretty neat!

     

    http://bbc.in/OwElNf
    15 Sep 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    French Jean-Marc Ayrault plans to decree 2l /100km cars within 10 years, I guess start-stop will help this goal (carbon in general). (from german news)
    15 Sep 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OPyQoF

     

    Interesting DOE doc on the ZBB - Illinois Institute of Technology installation ... trying to find out if ConEd is gathering data too.

     

    In a recent call, ZBB stated that HECO in Hawaii was studying making some of their installations grid assets ...
    15 Sep 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Thinking about the flooded battery contract prospects ... and US Winter Weather:

     

    "A look at the 2013 Old Farmer’s Almanac weather predictions"

     

    http://wapo.st/QrQLCg

     

    Related: http://bit.ly/NukZa7

     

    Gotta assume the very hot summer was good for these type of battery sales. Keep wondering just how much we could grow the business, whether we would add a shift, and how it affects time to financing. A few months could make a big difference.

     

    NSC was very positive on new car hauling, which hopefully keeps East Penn involved on the AGM side and wanting our production on the flooded side for a good long time. Really hoping they're one of the first strategic investors.

     

    The other thing I wonder about is TG's early year "giddiness" about improved profitability. I know he ramped that back, but I figure that was largely due to the legal department (and maybe JP? :-) ) kicking his butt for actually saying it. But wouldn't you love to know what he saw coming and whether it's still coming, but just a little delayed, e.g., NSC????
    15 Sep 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Also wonder what had TG so up on that call. Might have been the overall mix of things in the works, but I recall thinking that it might have had something to do with PJM.

     

    I don't have the expertise, but the PowerCube appears to be an extremely attractive all-around winner. Consider the example that almost all Wal-Marts are putting either wind or solar on their roofs. They buy a long-lasting Cube for each store and get 100% storage for their alt energy investment. They sell peak-shaving power to the grid, which also saves PJM money. The environment wins twice!

     

    I figured it had to be something big to give TG such a lift, and I don't think we've heard about it yet.
    18 Sep 2012, 02:35 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    We discussed a while back (August 20) that both Seeking Alpha and Google errantly were showing AXPW as a Pink Sheet stock http://bit.ly/NutjXx

     

    The 100th person responding to our survey pointed out that Interactive Brokers apparently has the same error.

     

    I'd like to also remind people that past concentrators can be searched easily thanks to the search engine on Bangwhiz's site: http://bit.ly/rXixeb
    15 Sep 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone have numbers on Durathon's charge acceptance?

     

    All I can find are generalities like:
    http://bit.ly/Nutq5p

     

    That they are going for "motive" solutions and Durathon operates from –40°C to +55°C ( http://tinyurl.com/8mc... )are a little disconcerting.

     

    I think Axion still has particularly good chances in S/S automotive, behind-the-meter applications, and locomotives (because their foot is in the door).
    15 Sep 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The Durathon's NaNiCl chemistry is a good energy battery, but it's not a fast battery. The normal charge rate is 6 hours and 1 hour is considered a fast charge. The reason the Durathon is impervious to temperature extremes is that the internal chemistry of the battery is in the 300º C range. For more detail on the chemistry, you can review this old JPS article from Cord Dustman, the former head of R&D for MES-DEA (now FZ Sonick), the original developer of the Durathon battery.

     

    http://bit.ly/A4lRCE
    15 Sep 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John.

     

    This is from the paragraph on charging:

     

    "Fast charge is permitted up to 80% Soc. Regenerative breaking (sic) is limited to 3.1 V per celi and 60 A per celi so that high regenerative breaking (sic) rates are possible (Fig. 8)."

     

    I assume this would help in locomotive and maybe wind applications.

     

    How much of a competitive threat do you think Durathon is going to be for PbC?

     

    Thanks.
    16 Sep 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Durathon is a high temperature battery, which means it can't be made in sizes under about 15 kWh. While the ability to take a 60 amp charge is pretty good, regenerative braking applications frequently throw off charging currents of 200 amps or more.

     

    A 2010 slide presentation from Gibson Barbee reported that NS tested "Sodium Beta (GE/MES)" batteries before deciding on the PbC. So we have at least one answer to that question. - http://bit.ly/JXgnI0

     

    I have a hard time looking at batteries in "competitive threat" terms because customers are being driven to energy storage by fuel economy, emissions control and renewable portfolio regulations that didn't exist a decade ago. For the next couple decades, the biggest challenge for everybody will be ramping capacity fast enough to satisfy explosive demand growth.

     

    The PbC's biggest competitive advantage is that it leverages existing factories, supply chains and distribution networks. Where everybody else has to start with raw dirt, the PbC is a relatively easy upgrade.
    16 Sep 2012, 03:53 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Thank you once again, John.

     

    Rapid charge acceptance and deep cycling longevity are what we are all betting on with PbC. The NS decision you cited, as well as the numbers you provided on Durathon charge acceptance, are encouraging indications that in these respects PbC still stands alone.
    16 Sep 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    XIDE puff piece in SAE:
    http://bit.ly/S04l2W

     

    Newer members may learn a little about AGM and get some reassurance about start-stop. Otherwise disappointing.

     

    Not exactly clear on their comment policy, but there is definitely a link to contact their editor. They encourage sharing with comments (it was prepared to use my Facebook identification) and it appears you can unclick the "Share your comment on XXX" and just post the comment directly "on" the article.

     

    Anyone want to find and post the link to the BWM-Ford Study? I think a short concise comment would be best. Hopefully they allow link posting, else you'll have to be more clever.
    15 Sep 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Just completed a short holiday in France. Rented a BMW 520 with a little over 6k on the clock.
    Stop/Start worked fine during 7 days of sightseeing. The final leg was 140k of highway driving. Upon entering Toulouse ran into lots of stop and go traffic. After 8 stop/starts the system had had enough and refused to stop/start for the rest of my journey to the airport. The a/c and satnav were on but no radio or wipers. I put just a bit over 800km on the clock, most of which was along uncongested country roads.
    In my view the battery performance was pathetic. I would have been mad as hell if I had to pay a premium for a system that clearly is a joke.
    15 Sep 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    From the article...

     

    "AGM batteries aren’t the only change that is being driven by stop-start. Exide is also moving forward with graphite additives that go into conventional flooded batteries and AGM batteries. Carbon graphite plates shorten recharging times."

     

    They start of talking about adding carbon to the NAM but then refer to the carbon graphic plates when they talk about recharge times. So now I am a little confused because I have not heard of additives enhancing DCA to the extent the article takes it (3-4 times)...
    15 Sep 2012, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Albert: Sorry for your inconvenience, but I view that as the best news I've heard in a 'coon's age.
    15 Sep 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Albert and Maya, me, too! And I think metro mentioned a car he rented or whatever that did the same thing recently (Hundai or Kia?).
    15 Sep 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    I find it funny that the article brags that AGM batteries last 4x longer but then in the same paragraphs acknowledge that stop/start requires the battery to charge and discharge 40x per trip.

     

    So 4x longer is just not even going to come close to cutting the mustard for s/s.

     

    I also thought the carbon negative plate discussion was interesting. They actually could be talking about the PbC.

     

    D
    16 Sep 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/RTStR1

     

    "It is also important to note that stop-start may never become a standard feature on all vehicles. On small city vehicles the extra cost, bulk, and weight may not be offset by the fuel savings."

     

    This quote seems counter-intuitive to me, I would think that it would be the best on small city vehicles that make the most frequent stops ...
    16 Sep 2012, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I think their logic is that the fuel savings are lower on a Fiat 500 than they are on a BMW 5 Series and the fuel savings may not justify the extra weight, but that seems like a bit of a stretch when you consider that the Mini was one of BMW's first stop-start lines.
    16 Sep 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    when the cost of stop-start is unknown, reaching that conclusion seems explainable.
    16 Sep 2012, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    There's some logic behind the conclusion, but that's the big reason outfits like Lux talk about three different levels of micro-hybrid; light, medium and heavy. Tiny cars with small hotel loads will be on the light end of the spectrum. Land yachts with huge hotel loads will use more technology. The final cost-benefit analysis will be done by bean counters for the automakers.
    16 Sep 2012, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Axionista shareholder survey results have been e-mailed out.

     

    If by chance you submitted your share count and do not receive the e-mail, please let me know at axionistas@mail.com

     

    If I did not have an e-mail for you outside of Seeking Alpha, I need that to e-mail you the results.

     

    Thanks again to everyone that participated in the survey.
    16 Sep 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for compiling that, Jon. The results were impressive, imho. Considering there were probably quite a few retail investors and even some Axioniastas who likely didn't report in.
    16 Sep 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    If you're submitting your share count after the deadline (and the results were already tallied) to get access to the results, I will need to know your user ID on Seeking Alpha, as well as your share count.
    16 Sep 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    Thanks for your efforts in this, we all appreciate the data you compiled and have shared. I found that it exceeded my expectations!

     

    357
    16 Sep 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    It seems that a few of my e-mails got eaten by a filter or went into spam folders because the e-mail elves deemed it so. Just let me know if you submitted your share count and you didn't get it. We'll get it fixed. Apologies for those inconvenienced by not getting the results promptly.
    16 Sep 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Jon, for pulling these data together for us.

     

    The numbers are impressive.

     

    Have you shared them with Tom Granville, as well?
    17 Sep 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the effort, the average holding sent a light shiver down my spine ;)
    17 Sep 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Greetings SMaturin,

     

    I did not share the numbers with Axion management (i.e. Mr. Granville).

     

    What do you think the utility of sharing the numbers with Axion management would be?

     

    [this is an open question to anyone that has an opinion either way]
    17 Sep 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I mentioned in a side note that I found the numbers particularly intriguing because a lot of people won't respond to the kind of question you asked and forums like the Concentrators appeal primarily to active investors who pay close attention to their holdings. I think it could be useful for management to know the rough reported holdings of Axion's most active investors.
    17 Sep 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Jon, the most encouraging thing for me was the impression that many shareholders are ready to buy more with a little good news. With all of these heavy sellers I wondered if we were all out of dry powder.
    17 Sep 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Jon.

     

    Some thoughts...

     

    My usual estimate about participation in polls of any kind is that 30% of the group will not participate. This would imply a strong hands increase to the overall numbers....

     

    I would think that this group holds about 25% of the company.
    17 Sep 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... Add to that what I just flat forgot. I know of 4 people right here in the neighborhood that, combined, own about twice my share count. I would think that your number is correct.
    17 Sep 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Great reading Jon, it shows there is alot of momentum within our little space. I feel a spate of good news could set this stock off like a rocket ship.
    17 Sep 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I also suspect holding size will substantially increase after the offering.
    17 Sep 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    RE: DRich's comment

     

    If get more than 10 additional people to add on the count, I'll report the additional amount (I just want there to be enough that it maintains everyone's anonymity).
    17 Sep 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    If you would like me to share the results of our survey with Axion management and e-mail them to Mr. Granville, please press the 'like' button on JP's comment about it above.

     

    http://bit.ly/S3rilN
    17 Sep 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    so many assumptions. i'd like to here more thoughts on how this would benefit AXPW to know share counts.
    17 Sep 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The company can find out who owns its stock whenever it wants to. It takes a little work, but there's no magic involved. What it can't know is whether this collection of message board enthusiasts is a curiosity or a credible market force.

     

    I've long believed that most of the stock accumulation over the last couple years has come from people who learned about Axion through my blog, did their own diligence, climbed a wall of worry, and slowly built positions. My working theory is that they'll be every bit as careful when selling time arrives.

     

    The most important point in Jon's data is that instead of having a holder make a selling decision for X million shares, tomorrow's decisions are going to involve smaller numbers and way more decision makers.

     

    That's very healthy for the market because each of us has different goals, time horizons and motivations. So the probability that a big enough group to crush the market will make the same decisions at the same time is pretty remote.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    JP, so r u saying that Axion can find out Manatuck Hill's AXPW ownership position? If so, how do they dig deeper than street name?
    17 Sep 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    i can see that having a diversified group of holders is like an investor holding a diversified portfolio.

     

    are you suggesting Jon's data = more liquidity for shareholders? volume and narrowing price ranges would support that conclusion. how could this be used by AXPW and in what other ways does Jon's assessment benefit the company?

     

    i appreciate your patience.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The information sources are spotty, so its hard to say whether Axion could get detailed information on a particular holder.

     

    The first important information source is a shareholders list which tells you who owns stock in paper form. The top holder on every public company's list is CEDE & CO, which is the record holder of all shares held in brokerage accounts.

     

    The second source of information is called a NOBO list, which can be useful for proxy solicitations. It provides the names and holdings of "non-objecting beneficial owners," people who have brokerage accounts and didn't check the "don't disclose my identity" box on their account application form. Individuals usually don't check the box. Institutions and other big investors usually do check the box.

     

    If a company has both reports sitting side by side, it can tell who owns how many shares in paper form, who owns how many disclosed shares in street name, and how many shares are held in undisclosed street name accounts. I don't know of any way to drill deeper than that.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Jon

     

    Add another big thanks for your efforts!
    I was one of the cautious commenters about sharing the info on the APC.

     

    I do not know if sharing is better or not, but a very pleasant surprise as to the strength of the count.
    Not just the numbers, but your comments and quotes supporting the story behind numbers.

     

    I cringe when emotions ride too high on the APC, looking for the immediate payback (frustrations understandable)...yet I have done enough due diligence and "listening" to several commenters and the rationale when the pps takes a dip, not to panic nor react to sell.

     

    Given the count details, I heartily endorse John's idea to clue in AXPW/TG.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Most corporate communication is a one-way street with the company doing all the talking. Getting a good feel for what the stockholders think is extraordinarily difficult. These Concentrators provide more insight into the thinking of a stockholder base than anything I've ever seen. That kind of insight is both unique and valuable. Any information that helps firm the context is a good thing. I don't know that there's any direct use for Jon's information, but it's certainly a bit of information that I'd want to know if I was on the other side of the wall.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps one of the values of the shareholder survey to TG is in communicating with strategic investors.

     

    Perhaps it could be a comfort to new strategic investors, or non-strategic investors, to know that a lot of the outstanding shares are in pretty strong hands.

     

    It would also be relevant to me as a large investor to know that these merry misfits known as 'Axionistas' are also looking to buy more on positive events and price movements such that an investment time horizon could potentially be pretty short.

     

    D
    17 Sep 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    If Tom is successful in finding true strategic investors, they're not likely to ever be sellers.
    17 Sep 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >D.McHattie ... It certainly would be nice to have a string of project participation/strategic investors the likes of Xtreme Power sports.
    17 Sep 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    I talked it over today with wiser folks than myself about the issue of sharing the Axionista shareholder survey results. Our rough idea is:

     

    1) If there are a majority of people who participated indicating they want to do this

     

    2) Then we will check with Axion if they want the information (and that there's no legal ramifications to us sharing the data)

     

    3) And if they do want the data, then we will share the information

     

    If you would like me to share the results of our survey with Axion management and e-mail them to Mr. Granville, please press the 'like' button on JP's comment about it above.

     

    http://bit.ly/S3rilN

     

    Thank you.
    17 Sep 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    9/14/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from my instablog.
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 31000, Vol 269600, AvTrSz: 6740
    Min. Pr: 0.2910, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2987
    # Buys, Shares: 32 206800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3001
    # Sells, Shares: 8 62800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2942
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.29:1 (76.7% "buys"), DlyShts 116800 (43.3%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 185.99%

     

    A 10K AH trade @ $0.291, the same price as the last in-market trade of 15K, occurred at 16:23. If this is combined with that 15K trade, the total equates to ~10% of the volume prior to those to trades (1/11th of total volume). This makes me think those two trades were a "sell" from Quercus to the market-maker covering his intra-day short sales at a higher price (VWAP was $0.2987).

     

    If we add this 10K to the total volume FINRA reports, short sales percentage moves from 44.99% to 43.3%. If we also add it to the short sales the percentage moves to 47%.

     

    Well, I think there's a positive trend here - no, not price getting ready to rocket or anything like that. The volatility seems to be draining out of a couple different areas, which should eventually show in some stability in price behavior. I think this sort of fits with John's cross of the 200-day rolling average of volume.

     

    First, since the short sales peak on 8/16 (highest since I began tracking), the peaks have been topping at lower percentages during each cycle. This is clearly visible on the charts. The lows have also been generally slowly moving towards the middle since 8/5. Even 9/7's low is slightly more towards the middle and that was coming off an exceptional short sales percentage pattern not seen before.

     

    The large volume spikes are getting smaller since 4/26. The volume lows are also gravitating towards more consistently hanging around the averages since 6/7 and the volume is definitely trending up near-term.

     

    Average trade size highs have been moving more toward the longer-term averages since 7/11 and the lows are slightly higher and stable.

     

    The buy percentage lows, after hitting their nadir for the second time (4/10 and 8/3), have been "floating" upwards, steadily. Conversely, the "highs" have been trending down towards the more normal ranges on each cycle.

     

    All this has continued even when we hit the recent resistance around $0.30, which I did not expect, and even as price moved to the $0.29-$0.28 range again. Speaking of price (nobody thinks of that do they? :-)) ), in spite of some feeling that we would go to $0.27 again and maybe even $0.25, we saw an increase in price with some volume improvement, in spite of another short sales percentage spike up (but we had predicted that the percentage would be moving up again). Yes, the VWAP move wasn't huge, just back to $0.2981, but it is again centered around the $0.30 area that I suggested has done pretty well as an area of demonstrated strength in the recent past.

     

    Since I've not seen these "stability trends" in the past and we've been in "exceptional circumstances", beginning before I started this tracking, I take these as positive signs that the "exceptional circumstances" are, at long last, abating. Even if we have some bigger players in the game, who may or may not be buying or selling during any period, things are beginning to behave more like a normal stock is involved rather than one under assault by distressed folks that just want to dump out.

     

    Maybe the recent move back to a VWAP near $0.30, when the potential for going lower was seen as being much more likely than not, is the first manifestation of smaller investors' comfort combined with larger distressed (and distressing too!) sellers actually being finally exhausted, which I've been suggesting they were near to for a couple of weeks now. Mathieu hit on this, I think, when he mentioned that the inability of the price to be driven lower was a very positive indication.

     

    Increasing stability bodes well for peace of mind and may allow, at long last, some folks to enter without worrying that the price will get hammered just a few days after they make their purchase and they will have missed an opportunity for a much better price or won't be able to take "the pain" and will jump out.

     

    Maybe all this suggests, at long last, the beginning of the "grind up" that I've wanted to see and incorrectly thought I might have seen beginning several times in the past.

     

    Moving to traditional TA for a couple of items, we see three consecutive days of higher lows and the last day has a higher high as well. Stochastic has moved out of oversold and moved above its average. On the ADX front, the DI+ and DI- are converging and it looks like a few positive days will allow a cross to the positive side.

     

    The price is definitely trying to diverge upwards away from the descending support line (~$0.27), which it had been moving towards on this recent leg down. However, I'm guessing that $0.33-$0.34 will show resistance again as when we got VWAP prices below $0.30 ($0.2969, $0.2945, $0.2915, $0.2978, and $0.2987) we had ~1.63MM shares change hands. That seems sufficient to safely assume that gains of 10% or more will entice some profit-taking. With our descending resistance line at ~$0.333, this seems even more likely.

     

    However, do keep in mind my prior thoughts about volatility in several of my experimental metrics. With the recent Rosewater product PR, CEDIA discussion that APMarshall kindly contributed in the concentrator, ... we might have a smaller percentage of "weak hands" participating this time around.

     

    I had mentioned that we needed to see what happened last week to make a stab at "what's next".

     

    Overall I think we have positive trends beginning to develop, which we've seen come to fruition and get crushed in the past. This time I think last week's behavior says no crush is likely in the near-term.

     

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" was omitted.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Sep 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    The Rosewater Energy web site has a new color brochure with technical specs advertising the Hub.

     

    http://bit.ly/RXDm9k
    17 Sep 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    That is the brochure that was distributed at CEDIA
    17 Sep 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Al,
    Ooops!!! I hate to say this but I was scrolling down the page and my mouse ended up on your comment and somehow I flagged the comment for "Report Abuse". I am "very" sorry. I hope where ever it goes they will look at the comment and realize it was a mistake. If you need me to say it was a mistake to someone please let me know.
    17 Sep 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Nice find, jveal. It does a good job of explaining it's usefulness with some technical detail while not being long winded or going over anyone's head.

     

    The breakdown of the PbC is a nice touch as well.
    17 Sep 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (784) | Send Message
     
    JVEAL
    Thanks.
    I was struck by the following:
    Complete protection all nine potencial power quality problems:
    -.Power Failure
    -.Power Sag
    -.Power Surge
    -.Under Voltage
    -.Over Voltage
    -.Line Noise
    -.Frequency Variation
    -.Switching Transients
    -.Harmonic Distortion.

     

    Have a nice day.
    Carlos.
    17 Sep 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Facebook comment stream about 5 of the recently acquired locomotives. Seems there are a LOT of these kind of locomotives available in the secondary market (see the pic linked towards the end of the stream)

     

    Also mentions Chattanooga as another NSC "shop" but I'll have to do some checking on how big they are and what they do.

     

    http://on.fb.me/SUhpcz

     

    I don't think you have to be a Facebook member to be able to read this comment stream. Got to the link through the AltoonaWorks twitter stream I've linked before:
    http://bit.ly/RJnpDI
    17 Sep 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    "FORTUNE -- Creating an electric-car company from scratch isn't easy, even if you happen to be a master of the universe.
    That's what the star-studded backers of Coda Automotive learned, a roster that includes three former Goldman Sachs (GS) bankers, a founder of the software giant SAP (SAP), the private equity firms Farallon Capital and KKR (KKR), and an ex-CEO of British Petroleum (BP)."

     

    Excellent, slightly long Fortune article about the past and present of Coda:

     

    http://bit.ly/SUkn0U

     

    Related:
    "CODA: We Have 1,000 Reservations, And We Are Going To Take 15% Of The EV Market"

     

    http://bit.ly/StLJ7E
    17 Sep 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    BMW has a new concept front wheel drive hybrid that they are saying could get up to 94 mpg. They are showing it off at the Paris Auto Show.

     

    http://hgm.me/PzU0GW

     

    I wonder if they are going to show off a new stop/start system with a PbC battery??

     

    There I go dreaming again!

     

    357
    17 Sep 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    That BMW has a plug so a PbC is very unlikely.

     

    As it turns out, press days for the Paris Motor Show are the 27th and 28th when I'll be in Paris for the ELBC. I have the editor of Batteries International working on getting me a press pass, but don't know whether he'll be able to at this late day or not.
    17 Sep 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    I had noticed that both events are going on simultaneously in Paris. I was wondering if you would be attempting to attend both.
    I know I mentioned this prior but maybe, "just maybe" BMW will surprise us with an advanced S/S system utilizing our little PbC. Wouldn't that be fun??

     

    357

     

    17 Sep 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Anything is possible, but I wouldn't make book on it.
    17 Sep 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Possible Japanese Hub competition?

     

    onforb.es/S3tUjq
    17 Sep 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    SHB: you'll want to try to do that link again.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I just tried it in a new window and it works for me. ??

     

    Possibly you were forwarded to another page? I have Firefox set to prevent auto forwarding.
    17 Sep 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    http://onforb.es/PAaiiT
    17 Sep 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The original Japanese report on the eneGoon is here – http://nkbp.jp/Rh9hSn

     

    It will be fascinating to see what the 6.6 kWh system sells for.
    17 Sep 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    SHB: it doesn't show as a link. I didn't try a copy and past on it though. It could work just fine ... Yep! Did a C & P into the url bar and is good. Sorry for the noise.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Just out of curiosity HTL, what do you think of those $31 TSLA puts?
    17 Sep 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    JP: because of the MS upgrade, I lost ~1.50 since Friday. I'm in the $30 puts.

     

    Gap up opens are *killers*!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Time to average down?
    17 Sep 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    JP: with time-decay on short-dated, which is my preference, that's not in my play book. Especially during options expiration week when volatility is high. For me, better to eat the losses and then make a stab when things look right again.

     

    MS is late on the call and "one-upped" other analysts with a $50 target. Only reason I can envision is they have a ton to unload on unsuspecting investors.

     

    Today's action (or lack of it after market open) makes me think they are carefully distributing as rather than the normal intra-day volatility we have essentially flat trading very near the lows for the day with a slow creep up to the mean.

     

    This suggests to me that a drop will come ... hopefully.

     

    xxx <<--- fingers crossed.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Kinda reminds me of the old buffalo jump stories.

     

    http://bit.ly/mUzZt4
    17 Sep 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It's looking like all is not lost HTL. It will be fascinating to see what happens between now and Friday.
    18 Sep 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    $50 target? Really? I had to go look at it myself to believe it.
    18 Sep 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Tesla's September 30th financial statements are going to show big sucking holes for both working capital and stockholders equity unless they raise a pile of cash in the next two weeks. Putting a $50 target on a stock that currently has a negative book value strikes me as more than a little irresponsible.
    18 Sep 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    John: Yes, I saw the huge volume spike yesterday (often signaling end of trend) and a glimmer of hope returned.

     

    I could be wrong, but this *seems* to support my wondering about the MS upgrade being designed to dump a bunch on unsuspecting souls.

     

    Volume's good, so far today, on a move down. Unlike yesterday which fell, stayed "flat" with a bias to inch towards mean, so far it's been down and showing a further down bias, except the lunchtime period which often reverses on *very* small volume.

     

    Fingers still crossed and watching intently to take what I can if I get fortunate.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Sep 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The thing that amazes me is that Morgan basically came right out and said they were cutting Tesla's 2012 sales guidance in half and paring 2013 sales guidance by 25%.

     

    If Tesla had announced "hey folks, we're only going to deliver 230 cars in Q3, 2,000 cars in Q4 and 15,000 cars next year," the market would have dropped like a stone.

     

    If they added disclosure about "oh, and by the way we're fixin to do a big stock offering that will probably go off at a discount because we're so strapped for cash" blood would have been running in the streets.

     

    I guess catastrophic news is fine as long as MS says $50
    18 Sep 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7604) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking 250 deliveries in Q3 but with maybe 350 actually produced since there are a lot of people being scheduled for delivery in early Oct. It's a minor miss if they pick it up in Q4 which I think is likely and I'm estimating twice what MS has for Q4. I think MS is purposely under estimating. We shall see.
    19 Sep 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    So there are 158 (appx) Axionistas who supposedly own 25% of Axion stock. I am not sure of the relevance of this information, or it's intended use, Would one not expect that scenario, in a small market technical microcap ?

     

    The old saying" if you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always got" seems to apply to Axion to me.

     

    I go to sleep every night dreaming that things will be different and Axion will actually get going, and those 158 of us will be joined by 15,800 who want a piece of it, but alas I awake to the same old "some day, right around the corner, just you wait, we might actually do something, after another 3 years of testing" rhetoric
    17 Sep 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    You're sounding less and less like old guard and more and more like Omy with each passing day. APH may be tolerant, but I'm growing tired of the sniping.

     

    There are points when anonymity becomes the bane of useful conversation. You've passed that point.
    17 Sep 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    it is up to the individual to set their investment expectations and time frame. i know i am looking hard at 2013 for financing terms and break even. i am encouraged by the increasing sales of PbC, especially after TG's NSC clarifications.

     

    your point still stands and i would expect holders sell out before they end up holding 'cause they have hope. earlier in the year i was disappointing TG wouldn't make more concrete predictive statements about management's goals but ultimately in a stock like this what should i expect? i believe in the tech. i am trying to understand how it will be deployed. i am frustrated by slow adoption but recognize that road must be traveled by every would be AXPW competitor.

     

    so i came up with my own time frame. as long as management convinces me they are actively developing a market for their product i am content to wait for financing terms and sales #s.
    17 Sep 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (430) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Iindelco stopped in, he's doing fine - just a few things chewing up time - and did a PM with the link below, which he believes may be a positive for the PbC.

     

    From the article I noted "... Excess braking energy, if any, is recovered and stored in the battery".

     

    "BMW applying predictive driving technology to increase fuel savings".

     

    http://bit.ly/RjKxmV

     

    APH
    17 Sep 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It looks like they're dead serious about complying with the applicable regulations while keeping the Beemer feel. It's gonna be hard to do all that with AGM batteries.
    17 Sep 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I can't imagine any substantial benefit from the braking re-gen *unless* they have something equivalent of the PbC on board, regardless of other benefits.

     

    Then, from my own experience, spirited back-road driving will also require a PbC to capture any engine drag re-gen benefits. These periods can last anywhere from a second or two to multiple-10s of seconds at a time.

     

    I think we are now in a time of certainty that PbC is coming on a BMW ... unless they've discovered some new technology that has completely escaped us.

     

    Now we wait for either PR from BMW or AXPW I think ... LoL! Nothing's changed! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    APH

     

    Tell lindelco he is missed and to come back and play soon!

     

    357
    17 Sep 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    I thought I remembered reading some of the Eco Pro prototypes? using dual Exide AGM batteries (could be remembering incorrectly). That being said, I have to think that's a belt and suspenders approach until they settled on something better (the PbC).
    17 Sep 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Here's my WTOTM (Working Theory Of The Moment).

     

    BMW has committed that when AXPW demonstrates a firm contract for a Tier 1 battery supplier to produce in quantity ... And they have communicated their desire to such manufacturers. :-))

     

    Yes, daydreams (or is it nightmares?) die hard (no relation to the battery of the same name).

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... If your premise is viable, I think Exide gets their new shiny AGM plant in GA operational & qualified this month or next and, if remember correctly, East Penn has AGM capacity just sitting around & ready. So, it would appear that the ball is in BMW's court for a PO unless there is something with Axion that it just can't expand capacity before next spring.

     

    Maybe we should make "tripleblack"'s unicorn the official seal of APC.
    17 Sep 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Great article. It sure seems that BMW isn't content with 5-10% improvement from stop-start. Funny how hard it is to get basic stuff done in 2-3 years but remarkable what can be accomplished in a decade. Navigation, wireless communications, electric motors, software, and batteries all pulled together to get 25% plus improvement. If this is real, we're no longer one of many possible ways to save a few percentage points of fuel, but we're part of what must be one of the key approaches to saving a lot of fuel and one that no automaker can ignore. If BMW can prove this out in its expensive cars, it won't be all that long before it works it's way down market (regulators will make sure of that).

     

    I agree that this would seem to scream PbC. One small blemish from our point of view is that you could justify the cost of LI in a system that provides such dramatic gasoline savings.

     

    Still, the safety concerns with LI, operating temperature issues, and PbC's superior DCA which should be important for regenerative braking, would give Axion more than a fighting chance.

     

    I actually think this is all good news for Axion. I've been very concerned about the PbC being the only viable solution to the start-stop problem because the auto OEMs and by extension, the regulators, won't want to create a situation where they have to deal with a monopoly supplier. Instead, if in 2015 or thereabouts automakers are introducing cars with this kind of solution, then, the overall market for Axion will be much, much larger, and even if LI is the "Coke", Axion's "Pepsi" will do extremely well. Personally, I think it'll be the other way around but want to emphasize that we'd win big either way.
    17 Sep 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    When you start thinking in terms of 350,000 cars for each 1% market penetration in 2015, I'd be happy with a lot less than Coke or Pepsi.
    17 Sep 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Those who love the luxury of the product will, in my opinion be very disappointed with the stop/start forced upgrade.

     

    Be mindful that many who can afford this level of luxury are deeply concerned about "green" issues.

     

    BMW may well find that their projected sales will lag once the poor performance of their stop/start system becomes more widely known.
    17 Sep 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Albert, I would argue that as long as the S-S system fails "silently" the owner won't care. He has done his part by buying the "green tech".

     

    It's the government agency that sets the km/liter standards and their controllers that cares. But that is strictly political.
    18 Sep 2012, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Create, Grow and Sustain 2012 Report:

     

    An interesting report of corporate Americas view on sustainability...

     

    http://bit.ly/PAj8xf

     

    Interesting how many RR's state their contribution by simply being more fuel efficient than trucks. I wonder how efficient they would be if they compared the full model (ie distribution).
    17 Sep 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    So, thinking just a bit more about the strategic investor topic. Given that Axion has enough current manufacturing capacity to meet the NS order numbers we've heard so far, plus a lot of PC and Hub orders, seems to me that auto orders are the big difference maker in the next couple of years, regarding a need for more capacity, working capital, and certainty/trust. Of course, they need another $10 million for another year anyway, but I'm guessing that mgmt thinks they're finally close enough to a large auto order(s), that it's time to explore strategic financing to meet these several needs at once. In fact, why would a company put any money in if Axion couldn't demonstrate adequate demand? That demonstration probably means orders will have to be there, at least in the eye of the financier/partner. Of course, everything will probably be subject to everything else.

     

    So I'm guessing that this tipping point is based on expected auto demand, with the agreement coming with a related player.
    17 Sep 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • alejotum
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    ...thanks jveal! Lead sales maybe. " A MODEL" I suggest to Contact THEM..........Around the arena (+70 acres of land), they've contracted the one's who landscape the 9/11 NY, to landscape this project. Schedule turn over to the INC will be month of January 2014, (6)months before July 27th.....
    All the congregations through out the world will be focus on this Arena...by means of available technologies....
    http://bit.ly/QgBUKC
    17 Sep 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): I think a Quercus-related trade, showing a "sell", just went at 15:48:06, $0.295, 16K, ~10% of volume prior to that point. Matched no bid or ask.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I just did some back-checking on Quercus ownership percentage and they dropped below the 10% level sometime in April, which means they could have exited the Form 4 reporting regime earlier than they did. Under those circumstances, I don't think their lawyer or Axion's would demand another Form 144 filing for sales after September 12th.

     

    While originally thought it would be another month before Quercus was back in the picture as a consistent seller, they may be our AH trader. If the AH sales are from Quercus, it looks like they're staying true to their prior behavior patterns and that's a good thing.

     

    I just noticed another 2,000 AH, which adds credibility to the theory that Quercus back and working on the balance of their shares.

     

    Based on their last Form 4 filing and estimated sales since then, I peg the remaining shares in Quercus hands at ±653,000.
    17 Sep 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    HMMMM!
    17 Sep 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    HTL, it's real early, but here's my guess re: private placement shares sold today: Quercus = 16k + 2k (last 2 trades of the day; the first one was in between the bid and ask and the other after hrs) = 18k (approx 10% of total volume). The large seller thru NITE: zero shares, as NITE was off the ask all day. Other sellers: zero shares (if not about zero, then FANC may be representing another private placement seller).

     

    I'll check the FINRA short report when it comes out in a couple hrs.

     

    Update: oops, just saw ur comment above.
    17 Sep 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Keep in mind we had a short sales spike Thursday and price *range* that *might* have made covering buys attractive, and enough volume to allow it, Thu. and Fri.

     

    So don't be surprised if short is smaller than you might expect, although it might be a day too early to see effects if covering buys were done.

     

    Just never know, never know how it will play.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    MrI: short 42,600, 23.5% excluding the 2K AH, 23.2% including it. This is a good improvement from yesterday's 43.3% and 58.1% Thu., especially on the lower volume (184K vs. 270K Fri.).

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL.

     

    26.6k not explained by Q's sales.
    17 Sep 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    MrI: You're focused too narrowly. Every sale of shares not owned by the market-maker must be marked as "short". So the *majority* of sell orders end up as short sales under normal conditions *unless* the MM happens to have a few shares arriving in his portfolio backing previous sell orders for which there has not been a "covering buy".

     

    I just finished my EOD update. I touch on it briefly there again, as well as more in-depth in my latest instablog iteration.

     

    Here comes EOD stuff in the next comment.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Correction: s/b "*unless* the MM happens to have a few shares arriving in his portfolio backing previous sell orders for which there HAS been a "covering buy"".

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2352) | Send Message
     
    Here's some info on the subject.

     

    http://bit.ly/S1qCJg
    18 Sep 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    9/17/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 183500, AvTrSz: 5734
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3090, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2966
    # Buys, Shares: 11 53400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3032
    # Sells, Shares: 21 130100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2939
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0
    Buy:Sell 1:2.44 (29.1% “buys”), DlyShts 42600 (23.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.74%

     

    Not much to say today that wouldn't be repetitive, so I'll just mention the usual short-related stuff and a couple brief comments.

     

    A 2K AH trade at $0.2902 is excluded from the FINRA-provided volumes. If we include this in the total volume the short percentage drops from the calculated 23.47% to 23.2%. If it's also added to short sales, the percentage moves to 24.3%.

     

    As usual, following a short percentage spike Thursday last, it's doing it's usual drop even as buy:sell weakens (see the instablog charts). I'm beginning to think I've got a handle on some of this crap ... at least until another 8/17-like aberration occurs again. Let's see if short percentage continues to drop one more day and buy:sell and/or price strengthens again either tomorrow or Wednesday as Thursday's T+3 elapses. This assumes we don't have a plethora of new sell orders hit the market.

     

    On price action today we had the usual ATDF, FANC and NITE market-maker's behavior: started decently positive, weakened a bit, came back a bit and weakened into the close. But there was apparent good support at $0.29 and above all day long and even a couple bumps up on the ATDF bid.

     

    I'll go out on a limb here and, based on past behavior, suggest that we've passed the point of risk of going to $0.28xx in this cycle if we don't hit it tomorrow. The reason I hedge that is that there is advantage to the brokers (in certain ways) to holding the client's shares as long as possible before making delivery. I don't know how many do this “take as long as possible without going into fails-to-deliver” and I also don't know the cycle time once the broker starts the delivery process.

     

    However, apparently Quercus has been in two consecutive days, so that gives another T+3 opportunity when the market-maker might still be a little long, although less long each passing day as the reducing volume reduces the volume of arriving shares from those prior sell orders. But keep in mind those last two trades today might have been covering short sales for a Quercus order, meaning that the arriving shares have a lower cost-basis for the market-maker. That could allow the market-maker to unload at a lower price or encourage him to move price up to get better profit on the arriving shares. Ideally, from my POV, the market-maker would just leave them alone and let the DTCC net his position so that us folks in the market could set the price.

     

    Fat chance that!

     

    Wrapping up, average trade sizes remain in “retail” area, I think.

     

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted here, but available in the instablog.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Question about NS 999:

     

    My understanding is that it runs entirely on batteries and depends on regenerative braking to charge them.

     

    Since the fraction of energy used that can not be recovered has to be pumped into the system from somewhere, does NS 999 use a diesel engine or some other source, a wall plug, e.g., to do this?

     

    I don't see anything but batteries on this diagram (page 4):
    http://bit.ly/JXgnI0

     

    Thanks.
    18 Sep 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The NS 999 will be charged from track-side charging stations in the train yards. There's a picture of the charging station they built in 2009 on page 23 of Axion's investor presentation.
    18 Sep 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    billa, as JP said, the power is supplied from the mains. The energy recoverable, if any, from braking regen will be minimal in a yard slug application.
    18 Sep 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, recuperative braking loads were the problem that made AGM unsatisfactory for the NS 999. Hitting the battery with too much recovered braking energy generated a lot of internal heat and severely damaged the batteries. If you think about it, the entire job of a switching locomotive is to get a million pounds of boxcars rolling and then bring them to a stop when they reach their new home.
    18 Sep 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    John, Billa:
    I believe that's a "charging bungalow," per NS' presentation, p. 5, linked in billa's post above.
    (I only posted this to be able to write "bungalow.")
    18 Sep 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Interesting... the brakes are present on all the wheels of the train. Do they capture energy from all the wheels, or just from the locomotives wheels?
    18 Sep 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    FPA: When this was brought up before, IIRC, the conclusion was that complexity or wiring, retro-fitting thousnads and thousands of cars, maintenance, ... made capture from non-locos unreasonable.

     

    My memory might be wrong though.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Sep 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Locomotives are basically big electric vehicles. The diesel engines run generators and electricity from the generators is what turns the drive wheels.

     

    While locomotives have friction brakes like other vehicles, the bulk of the braking is done with the drive motors just like you see in a Prius or a Leaf. Historically recuperative energy was dumped into resistor banks and blown off as waste heat. Adding batteries merely conserves that energy instead of wasting it.
    18 Sep 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how much of a recharge bump you would get per car? One of the big features of the battery is it can accept a very high recharge rate. I wonder if there would be a benifit from hooking up the first four or five cars. It could keep the percent discharge at a higher level during operation. Just wondering...
    18 Sep 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    If you're using the locomotive to brake the train instead of using the friction brakes on each car, all of the energy from the moving mass is dumped back into the locomotive that put the mass in motion in the first place.
    18 Sep 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    I didn't realize the "Charging Bungalow" is on the ground beside the tracks. I thought it might have been nomenclature for some electronics cabinets on board.

     

    Thanks to all who helped clarify this.

     

    I think that port drayage and RR yard switching have a lot in common in terms of regenerative braking. Both applications involve moving massive loads short distances, which of course means that once they are set in motion, the engine moving them will have to bring them to a stop.
    18 Sep 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    While I can't address the specific issues of the NS999 failures, I would think recovering energy in a railyard would be much more difficult than in an over-the-road application. There is a huge amount of friction in slow speed railyard work: every coupling stretching out and many curves and switches. An initial brake causes a lot of energy to be lost as all the coupling noisily compress together, and the slow speeds mean there is relatively little energy left over.

     

    OTR, the tracks are straighter (and have less switches), and there is time to slowly accelerate to 30+ mph. Decelerating generally would be extended over a long period of time, so all the couplings are compressed and there is still energy to be captured.
    19 Sep 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... While I agree about the relative lower energy recovery in yard work, it is still significant. Where an electric switcher would shine is the immediate torque of the motor. Yard switchers use a lot of fuel revving into, and beyond, the required power band to start & stop loads. Then there is idle time.
    19 Sep 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Rick: Can you 'splain it to me? It seems to me that, disregarding smaller losses from mechanical and electrical inefficiencies, the energy recovered will be close to the energy expended in *frequent* starts and stops - on a percentage basis greater than OTR since there's much smaller losses from air resistance and none from, say, maybe climbing a long hill and then going flat and level at speed for a long period.

     

    Since energy is always conserved, the losses from expansion and compression of hard items like steel or cast couplings should be minimal since the energy is very efficiently transmitted with just a little conversion to heat, no?

     

    If that holds, the gains from yard slug work should be much more attractive than OTR? Especially when you factor in the no-idle that DRich mentions.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Sep 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... and highly inefficient rpm ramp to spin the generator to motor load.
    19 Sep 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I can imagine that doing that many times in a work day would really add to the cost - both fuel and more frequent oil and filter changes and long-term wear?

     

    The more I think about it, the more attractive a yard slug looks, in percentage terms (cost savings), than an OTR ... until what I've overlooked smacks me with another cluebat! :-((

     

    HardToLove
    19 Sep 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I don't have a clue about relative significance in the overall scheme of energy consumption, production, recovery, etc. but it does seem that the noise generation mentioned by Rick definitely needs accounting for. Every click/clang produced by a coupling extension or compression is kinetic energy converted to radio waves instead of infrared radiation (heat).
    19 Sep 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Im not sure which specific failures of the NS999 your not addressing or why, but, if I recall correctly, one of the major flaws in the original Lead Acid construct was significant degradation of the batteries due in part to the regenerative braking presenting a substantial charge regimen that was killing them (batteries). Engineering and physics aside, if that was the practical outcome (if I understood correctly) then the yard slug is a good candidate to benefit from the PbC.
    If I misunderstood or created this notion of regen. braking killing the LA batteries then indeed I hope the (paper) engineers at Norfolk have thought this through.
    19 Sep 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >42itus1 ... Not to worry. You have the original failure in NS999-Rev A correct. I would take the PO for batteries as confirmation that the engineers are satisfied with performance. I firmly believe NS999-Rev B is inhabiting the political world of management & bean counters.
    19 Sep 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "... one of the major flaws in the original Lead Acid construct was significant degradation of the batteries due in part to the regenerative braking presenting a substantial charge regimen that was killing them (batteries)."

     

    I also understood capture of regenerative braking energy was part of the failure dynamic on the original NS999, but understood the failure lay in inability to sustain charge balance across batteries in a string and across cells within individual batteries. DCA characteristics of the AGM batteries used could have been a further failure path.
    19 Sep 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    I think both were culprits and played hand in hand. The string imbalance made the first mentioned problem worse by causing more stress on some batteries, leading to faster deterioration if I am not mistaken. It's no wonder the batteries lasted only a matter of months before causing problems.
    19 Sep 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    HTL - In theory, all the energy spent accelerating should be recoverable decelerating. In practice, there is a huge amount of friction, and the energy is lost as low grade heat.

     

    The initial energy for acceleration has substantial losses breaking the axle friction on each truck and "stretching" the connectors as the tension moves down the train. The switches and sharp curves of the yard have much greater friction than straight track, since the wheel flanges are rubbing, not just the flat.

     

    Slowing down, assuming only loco braking is used and not the air brakes, every coupling is compressing, and the steel is absorbing that energy. It slightly warms up the steel; the heat is lost. The energy transferred to the loco is discontinuous (bump-bump---BUMP-little bump) as the cars compress, creating "spiky" electrical production, which probably means heat is lost in the inverters, and likely stresses the batteries with over-voltages.

     

    I am not saying there is no energy recovered. I certainly see how traditional batteries would fail. Bio-carbon batteries should be much more resistant to spiky electricity ("should" is my guess; I do not have documentation for it).

     

    I definitely am not saying the NS 999 project is doomed - everything I have read (and thought about) is positive.

     

    I contrast the yard slug vs OTR. Accelerating to 5 mph is inefficient from a physics POV (but necessary). Above that, all the couplings are under pretty steady tension (therefore not absorbing energy), all the axles are spinning and the gear grease is warm (so rolling friction is much less), and the transitions (accelerating and decelerating) are gradual and steady (so the electricity is not spiky, and therefore controllable). Generally there will be many fewer (and more gradual) curves and many less switches and crosses on OTR runs that yard work.

     

    From my perspective, both OTR and yard slug applications should work and be energy effective. Yard slugs directly waste energy by idling; batteries are a huge improvement even if no power is regenerated. OTR locos have much less wasted idling energy, but should be able to recover an interesting amount of energy.

     

    Of course, I am ready to be proved wrong when some authoritative papers come out from NS.
    19 Sep 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: I didn't know that. But even so, is the percentage converted so large that we *substantially* reduce what can be recovered? I think not.

     

    Taking an example we've all seen on TV somewhere, think of those little swinging balls. Every cycle produces a click, which I had assumed was sound waves produced as the material oscillated from distorting and returning to shape at high frequency. The cycles will go on and on for a *very* long time, indicating that the percentage of energy, of any form, lost on every cycle is *very* small.

     

    Disregarding that, even allowing a loss as large as, say, 5% (which should be quite far from reality I think - I would guess it might be as low as below 1%-2%), having 95% *available* for recovery is quite a large percentage and I think would still be *very* beneficial and easily economically justify the Green Goat effort.

     

    Thinking along the lines of "What if we could recover and use 95% of the wasted energy in gasoline combustion in cars"?

     

    Radio waves, huh? I'm constantly surprised. I thought heat and sound was about all of it.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick. If we did get an authoritative paper, we wouldn't have has much fun though! :-)) ... Well, except what fun the $$ we'll likely have from that can provide!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "Radio waves, huh? I'm constantly surprised. I thought heat and sound was about all of it."

     

    I could be mistaken about the electromagnetic wave label for sound, but i'm confident the sound generated by movement of a train, car, plane, etc. is a form of energy released through conversion of the energy input required to change or maintain the velocity of any object. Sparks produced by metal on metal friction are electromagnetic radiation (with wave length in the visible spectrum) released in conversion of the kinetic energy in object motion. Heat (infrared radiation) is probably the largest energy "waste" product in a BEL since it is produced by the friction associated with starting, stopping, and rolling wheels on rails as well as in power controllers and operation of the drive motors.

     

    But, I'm a dilitante in the subject matter and readily defer to the more expert.
    20 Sep 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv - I don't think there would be much radio (electromagnetic, EM) wave losses. If there was visible sparking, that would be EM waves and energy loss. EM waves travel at the speed of light, about 186k miles/sec.

     

    Sound waves travel at the speed of sound, c. 1000 mph (highly variable depending on medium).

     

    Friction (steel against steel) would generate heat, with or without sound. Braking hard could push the locked loco wheels to skid on the track, and create heat which would be lost. (Even if the skid is only a foot or two).

     

    Compressing metal absorbs a lot of energy. Try banging a sledgehammer a few dozen times on a spike and you'll notice the spike and sledge get hot. In a pile driving operation, the heat (if not managed) can get the metal red hot.
    20 Sep 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    the more you try and push things together the hotter they get. see crowded bus.
    21 Sep 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "Compressing metal absorbs a lot of energy. Try banging a sledgehammer a few dozen times on a spike and you'll notice the spike and sledge get hot. In a pile driving operation, the heat (if not managed) can get the metal red hot."

     

    :-) Moving sledgehammers/pile drivers bear kinetic energy which is converted to heat (infrared electromagnetic radiation).
    22 Sep 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, not trying to get into a physics debate, but I would think the vast majority of the heat of compression in a metal would be lost as conduction (to the rest of the train, the rest of sledgehammer) and convection (to air). If I'm wrong, please educate me.
    23 Sep 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "D-Inv, not trying to get into a physics debate, but I would think the vast majority of the heat of compression in a metal would be lost as conduction (to the rest of the train, the rest of sledgehammer) and convection (to air). If I'm wrong, please educate me. "

     

    :-) Not saying you are wrong, Rick, just that heat is heat is infrared electromagnetic energy which can move by conduction, convection or radiation.

     

    'Twas my error to state "infrared electromagnetic radiation" rather than infrared electromagnetic energy.
    23 Sep 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I have overlooked it, is it known what percentage the current management holds in the company?
    18 Sep 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    According to the last proxy statement, management has about 6.7%

     

    http://1.usa.gov/JOhF6i
    18 Sep 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • foolcd
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    The company must file its DEF 14A form every year, the filing from June 2012 is found here: http://1.usa.gov/JOhF6i

     

    In it, we can see: directors and officers as a group own 7197k shares and 951k warrant/options for a combined ownership of 6.7%.
    18 Sep 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Thank you very much, I will remember that form name, holdings are not too bad either.
    18 Sep 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the number of shares and warrants Granville and down have, I see a huge incentive to bring up the stock price. Their multi-year effort is for naught if they if they don't move the value up by 10x. This is what stock incentives are for, IMO. I also think it means there is a very low risk of a cashing out with a company sale anytime soon.
    18 Sep 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    All the officers and directors are in the same shoes I'm wearing with an average cost of well over $1. I think it's safe to say that all the old guard have expectations that are far higher than one usually reads about in the Concentrators.
    18 Sep 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Music to these old ears!
    18 Sep 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    There are a load of Axionistas that will be looking at multi-baggers by the time I'm feeling even. The real curiosity question will be how many have the stones to hang around until my investment objectives are satisfied.
    18 Sep 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I think there might be a fair number that think your goal (from long ago & far away) is quite reasonable.
    18 Sep 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • foolcd
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Well, I would not say that all your efforts were for nothing when you were paid a relatively high (in my eyes) salary during these years:

     

    Year k$
    2006 1396
    2007 288
    2008 685
    2009 345
    2010 767
    2011 407

     

    The figures are for the total compensation (including stock options that may be worth less than estimated) according to the SEC filing and if I did no mistake.

     

    But of course, I agree with you that they have huge incentives to succeed (and not only financially).
    18 Sep 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    One benefit I have noticed looking back at the stock history of once upon a time penny stocks is the fact that they have a life of their own not influenced by general market behaviour (in their pre-discovery phase).
    18 Sep 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    DRich > I hope so, but I know that a favorite pastime of investors is complaining about the one they sold too soon.

     

    FoolCD> It you want to complain about Granville's compensation, the first thing to do is get honest about it and look at the cash, because the paper is just that – worthless paper unless the company is a smashing success.

     

    If Tom's anything like me, he's paid more taxes on compensatory paper than the damned stock is worth.

     

    You might also consider Tom's opportunity costs associated with working 18 hours a day seven days a week for Axion instead of doing something far more lucrative. The fact is Tom could easily make two or three times as much money doing something else. We only have him because he's a man of principle and he hasn't finished the job we set out to do nine years ago.
    18 Sep 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    foolcd,
    Including stock options? Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't options have to be paid for with cash money? So a one million dollar stock option has to be exercised with a cash payment to the company to be able to receive the stock? Hmmm, doesn't sound like income until the stock is sold. If my assumption is correct, then I find your numbers very misleading.
    18 Sep 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    IF the real share price should be $1.00 on the current $10m of sales, then sales of 100,000 $300.00 PbC batteries should in theory command a share price of $ 3.00.
    Boost that 100,000 into a million and we find a share price of $30.00.

     

    That would make all of us all very happy.

     

    Of course if Stop/Start becomes the industry standard for midsize and larger vehicles then the potential PbC market is probably north of 20M annually. And so I dream on to say in 2017 with sales approaching $6 billion (20M * $300) an extrapolated share price of $600.00 would seem to be not out of the range of possibility. Hello AAPL!

     

    Yes, yes I do understand that things do not move in straight lines and that there is no end of headwinds in terms of potential relaxed standards, miracle batteries that no one has ever heard about, the end of the world etc etc etc. But if, just if, it actually does unfurl as we the true believers expect then conservatively speaking the average Axionista (thank you JS) will have several litters to choose from. Who knows some might even opt for an electric version as they find their litter bearers too distracting!

     

    Optimistically yours!
    18 Sep 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    They might even be able to afford litter bearers for their brass teslacles.
    18 Sep 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Sexist!
    18 Sep 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • foolcd
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    John, if you tell me that I have to get honest, it means I am not at the present time and I don't accept this accusation when I only copy the numbers indicated as total compensation in the SEC filing.

     

    And yes, I have also looked at the cash only compensation, and it is shown below:

     

    Salary and bonus received by CEO in k$
    2011 380
    2010 621
    2009 324
    2008 584
    2007 252
    2006 609

     

    These were the facts as reported in the SEC filing and I don't see how I am not honest when I write this.

     

    I also don't think I am dishonest when I express my opinion, that I, found it "relatively high (in my eyes)". I always prefer that management get higher compensation once the company is getting profitable and not until then but it is completely personal and it has not prevented me to invest a lot in the company.

     

    I was afraid it was very risky for me just to write the facts and express this personal opinion and that I could get immediately attacked just for saying I personally found it relatively high. And unfortunately it has happened, it saddens me somewhat.
    18 Sep 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • foolcd
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    > Stilldazed, it could be it is my command of English that is not good enough to really understand why you find "my numbers very misleading."
    But these are not "my numbers". These are the numbers the company is reporting at the SEC.
    The value assigned to an option is based on a formula (Black–Scholes formula, I think if memory serves me well although I have not checked for this post).
    So it is true that the value the CEO might ultimately get from his options might be lower than the value reported by the formula in the SEC filing and that is specifically to avoid any such accusation that I mentioned in my post that the options might be worth less than estimated. But also more if the share price increases significantly.

     

    This is why I completely disagree with the idea that I could be misleading someone.
    18 Sep 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    Me.
    19 Sep 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    foolcd,
    I said the numbers seemed to be misleading, because an option has to be exercised for cash money. Unless the stock is bought and then sold for a quick profit I don't see it as income. I am sure that there are fine points of accounting that I don't understand, but with my own investments I don't consider the stock price of what I own to determine whether I have a profit until I sell it. To me, potential is not the same as actual profit. I try to keep things as simple as possible so I don't out smart myself. :-)
    19 Sep 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Lloyd Hanlin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Retired electric company rate analyst. age 85. Memory not best.
    18 Sep 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Welcome, Lloyd.
    18 Sep 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Welcome indeed Lloyd. Great to have you here.
    18 Sep 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Welcome Lloyd,

     

    I am sure you have forgot more than I have ever learned!!

     

    357
    18 Sep 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Lloyd: Welcome and feel free to contribute as desired and able. We all welcome every bit one wishes to contribute!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Sep 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Early price wekness in the $0.28x area volume totalled 83,896 shares, through 10:08. VWAP $0.2889. We just ate up the 85K that were shorted Wednesday last (9/12), 84,685. Yesterday is T+3 for that day and shares should have come to the MM portfolio at EOD yesterday.

     

    VWAP that Wednesday was $0.2978. So *if* this early sell is related to Wednesday's shorts, there's an excellent chance the MM shorted >= ~$0.2978, did covering buys below their average sell price, making the incoming shares available for sale at a very low price today.

     

    Once those early sells today were nearly done, best bid moved to $0.29xx and selling abated.

     

    Next trade, a "lure"(?) was $0.30 of 500 shares.

     

    I don't *know* that this early selling at reduced price was Wednesday's short sales related, but the evidence looks like it.

     

    Next batch of short sales from Thursday last (9/13) would be 99,505, VWAP $0.2978. What we don't know is if shares from those short sales were covered with buys or if the MM(s) let the DTCC net them out.

     

    I'm looking for short sales to be lower again today *if* these *suppositions* hold any water.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Sep 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    I see NITE has jumped up to $.33 ask!!
    18 Sep 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    They couldn't resist the 30 cent bid. They've backed off the ask area many times recently, usually only for a few minutes.
    18 Sep 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1206) | Send Message
     
    Ford Champions Reduction in Rare Earth Metals in Next Generation Hybrids:

     

    The cost for the lithium-ion batteries for Ford's third-generation hybrid systems is reduced 30 percent from the previously used NiMH batteries.

     

    http://aol.it/U8PBRc
    18 Sep 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Somebody trying to drum up business? Looks like MM put to "lures" to entice selling, 500x2 $0.292 again. The prior trade at that price was 11:10.

     

    I suspect some MM trying to do more "covering buys" to maximize profit over the next couple of days..

     

    HardToLove
    18 Sep 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    I believe that the buyers are just waiting for some confirmation that the big boy sellers are drying up! I certainly don't know when that will happen but I do remember that JP stated by the Fall Soltice which is getting pretty close now so I am readying my ammo!! :-))

     

    357
    18 Sep 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that there's nothing magic about the equinox, but I did say a couple months ago that I didn't see how the heavy selling could last past the end of summer. My best guess at this point is that remaining supply is less than 1.5 million shares including Quercus. When you figure I started with a base of 57.6 million shares to account for, it's way too close to call at this point. The fun part is that Jon Springer's poll indicates that the Axionistas and their less involved brethren own the substantial bulk of the float and I can't identify too many people around here who seem eager to flip for quarters.
    18 Sep 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    One thing that really struck me about Jon's numbers and comments, as well as other ones here. is that it reinforces my belief that when we finally have a run, it will be big and swift. Lots of $ waiting for a catalyst. Lots of chasing will happen. The big question is it from here, or 28 cents, or 25, or what?
    18 Sep 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Exhausting all other forms of due diligence my DD turned to the heavens and I read into the meaning as quite symbolic, equal days and nights signify the balancing out of buying and selling. The sun staring at the center of the earth will finally provide balance to AXPW.
    18 Sep 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    If the inflection point takes place this week, John's reputation for predictions should soar like the legend of the old Farmer's Almanac. According to the legend, the Farmer's Almanac predicted rain, hail, and snow in July. It was correct and all its competition faded away as the Farmer's Almanac became the standard that everyone used.
    18 Sep 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    The Careers page on Axion's website now says, "There are currently no open positions." Hope they were able to fill the two former openings.
    18 Sep 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Wow. I was literally looking at that a couple of hours ago and they had those two positions still up there.
    18 Sep 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    I have been checking the careers page every day for changes. I checked it this morning.
    18 Sep 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    I should think so. If I recall correctly the deadlines for receipt of applications were both back in the mid-August timeframe.
    18 Sep 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Well, my TFH is getting too much influence now.

     

    I suspect a Quercus related covering buy by the MM at 14:57:09 because the 28K @ $0.29 is very close to 10% of volume to that time, ~27,097, and the price is below the VWAP prior to that trade, $0.2937.

     

    It's earlier than what we normally see, and so I may be seeing something that's not really there.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Sep 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Just remember the mere fact that you're paranoid doesn't prove they're not out to get you. The real tell-tale will be an AH trade for 10% of the spread between 280K and final volume.
    18 Sep 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    That trade just occured. Today's big unknown is who was doing the steady dumping this afternoon?
    18 Sep 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I just saw an AH and am calculating now.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Well fancy that: subsequent volume divided by 11 is ~16873 and the AH trade is 16,450.
    18 Sep 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Earlier today, before the "burst bomb" late in the day, I suspected, with no preference, Blackrock, Manatuck, Special Situations, Quercus, JP, you, me, .. other retails investors, ... did I omit anyone? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Sep 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I think we have a defensible theory HTL. Unfortunately the only way to ever confirm the theory will be to keep a declining estimate on Quercus and see if the AH stops when the ticker hits zero.
    18 Sep 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    So, another 40K or so that's off the table from them. Must be getting near 500K left before they are exhausted.
    18 Sep 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Nevermind, I think JP mentioned the other day Quercus had 800,000. I am getting ahead of myself.
    18 Sep 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    dastar, JP's comment after trading yesterday (his full post is above, here in Concentrator 151) was his estimate was that Q had about 653k shares left. So 653k - 44k = about 609k after today's trading.
    18 Sep 2012, 05:41 PM