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  • Axion Power Concentrator 153: Sep. 21, 2012: APMarshall's Sep 2012 CEDIA Notes & Updated John Petersen Charts 324 comments
    Sep 25, 2012 6:23 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
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    Al Marshall's notes for CEDIA, September 6, 2012

    RoseWater General Update - RoseWater is focusing on Residential Hub (RH) in the US because the high-end residential market and the US are what they know best and believe will come quickest. Eventually, they will expand internationally. At the show, folks from several Asian countries visited the booth and expressed strong interest. I didn't learn much about their other initiatives except that a university research project in Ontario is expected, in the short-term, to help size future Hub devices (2kw?).

    Residential Hub Technical - Three main electronics components: Charge Controller, Inverter, and Uninterruptible Power Supply. I took photos of each with my cell phone and they are posted at the end of these notes [APH: photos replaced with links to them for various reasons]. Note that the inverter in the RH can perform that function for solar panels, eliminating about ~25% of the cost of a solar panel system.

    Multiple hubs can be linked together although most of the examples I overheard involved a single bank of electronics being paired with up to five cabinets of batteries.

    The first hub, which is the unit at the show, was custom built by Axion in New Castle (at the electrode plant not the battery plant). Future units will be built by a third party. Suppliers may change as Axion's purchasing process is still underway. I believe the unit displayed at the show has an indoor cabinet. Future units will be outdoor capable. Inferred that each Hub will have an IP address since the device can be remotely monitored and I believe controlled. I latched onto the issue (really opportunity) that Rosewater should collect data from all the hubs and use it to assess utility power quality. This information could be used to help installers sell, particularly if smaller hubs are introduced in an attempt to go down-market.

    Competition - I didn't take the time to walk the entire show and gather info on competitors. I learned a little bit from the RoseWater folks. Pricing seemed to be in the ballpark of the closest comparable products, which really aren't that comparable. Mario pointed out that the major competitors (same guys mentioned at the annual conference) are building products aimed for the mass-market that are priced like the Residential Hub, something he believes won't work for the high-end residential market. I believe the biggest differentiator is Joe Pic's understanding of this market segment and the PbC battery.

    Competitors that approach the Hub in capabilities will likely have lithium Ion batteries, but cost will limit them to only have a small number of batteries. Competitors that use lead acid can have similar storage capacity, but their units will be very short-lived if the unit provides the same level of power conditioning as the RH.

    Note, this relates to the first question I asked: How important is the PbC's strengths in making the RH a truly differentiated product? The answer was that the batteries will be frequently tapped to provide power to fill power gaps and to accept power to eliminate power spikes. Thus, the combination of the electronics and the batteries will enable the RH to provide "perfect power" and to do it for many years. The safety aspects of the PbC are also important for indoor use as is the PbC's capability to operate outdoors. Looking at in another way, LI can't be used outdoors but is a safety risk indoors.

    Another form of competition is a device which the helpful installer called a "power conditioner". This device (costs $7-10k) apparently smooths the spike in power surges but doesn't have a storage capability to fill in the valleys and otherwise create the high quality power provided by the Residential Hub.

    I am not technical at all, so hopefully the above info is a good starting point for others who are more knowledgeable.

    Selling Residential Hub - RoseWater is very concerned about making sure the Hub is profitable for the installers. It appears that RoseWater will allow, if not encourage, installers to add some sort of markup (or give discounting) on the RH to add margin even though they will also be charging for installation.

    As I mentioned yesterday, most of the installers weren't concerned about the price. I remember one case where upon being told the price, the guy just shrugged, not even bothering to say "they'll pay it", which was the reaction from most of the folks. The most skeptical installer was a guy who agreed on the merits of the Residential Hub but thought he'd need help justifying the sale. This sparked a long and productive discussion, which in the end put him at ease.

    No one believes there will be issues selling RH to the homeowner installing $500,000 in electronics. The RH will protect and extend the life of all that equipment while adding access to renewables and a generator (generators provide low quality power so it is particularly important to fully condition that power). That's a no-brainer. The open question then becomes at what total system cost does $45k+ for a Residential Hub no longer seem automatic.

    Another factor that is good news for us is the fact that these very high-end homes tend to have unique circumstances associated with them. Often they are in isolated places that tend to have unreliable and poor quality power. Mountain homes fit this. One example was a home on a hilltop in California in an area where there are a lot of wildfires. Whenever there is a fire, the utility turns off the power in the entire area, often for an extended period. Apparently, this happens quite frequently.

    One of the most interesting things I learned came from one of the installers. After visiting the booth, I asked one if he'd be willing to take a few minutes to answer some questions for me. The gentleman and his wife ended up talking with me for at least twenty minutes and shared a lot of fascinating information and viewpoints.

    One very interesting point he made that relates to this topic was that nearly 100% of the very high-end homes being constructed today include wiring in the garage to support charging an electric car. He went on to say that 50% of these homes have the charging equipment installed. It would seem that these homeowners have come to accept electric cars to an entirely different degree than has the general public. I laughed and thought of JP when I heard this. It did make me think that RoseWater ought to market to electric car owners and purchase mailing lists of these owners if possible.

    Another point by this same installer was that he thought the biggest problem selling the RH is that installers are generally electronically oriented and tend to lack expertise and may be intimidated by electrical systems. This point indirectly came up with another installer earlier in the day who told a story about another installer who caused a great deal of damage to the electronics in a house when he tried to test a generator that he had incorrectly connected.

    As I mentioned earlier, I don't have any information to share on sales or how many sales RoseWater is expecting to make. They did share with me a number that may be a good starting point when it comes to the size of the potential market. I was told that roughly 4,000 high-end home electronic control systems like the ones sold by Crestron are sold in the U.S. each year (more on Crestron below). I believe that number is for systems valued at $100k or more (presumably doesn't include dealer installation and configuration costs of an additional 25% to 50%).

    By my math, each 1% share of that market earned by RoseWater would likely yield about $1m for Axion, with half of that being PbC related and the other half a wag on Axion's pricing of the other components.

    To better learn about these systems, I went to the Crestron booth, which appears to be the 500lb gorilla in the space based on their sales: ~$500m and presence at the show (their "booth" was 4-5 times as big as the second largest booth at the show). Privately held Crestron's products include the electronics and controls for: intercom, music, lights, climate, TV, shades, and security. At the show they were promoting their API (application programming interface) for installers to configure and customize systems. There's a recent Forbes magazine profile of the founder and CEO, who I saw at an early morning panel discussion on the future of the industry. If we want to learn about the market and potential of the Residential Hub, we should, amongst other things, try to find out as much as we can about Crestron.

    RoseWater shared the booth with a company called Energysquad.com, which is their new Maryland dealer and I believe their first. EnergySquad seems to be a mixture of distributor and dealer but because the RH units will likely be made to order, I think their role will be more as a dealer/installer. I'm not certain of that however. Most of Energy Squad's booth seemed to be devoted to LED lighting although they have a great many other products and are adding more aggressively. I haven't had a chance to research Energysquad.com beyond what I learned from talking to their folks at the show.

    Axion update mainly based on my conversation with Vani Dantam - Interest is very strong and his team is responding to a lot of inquiries/testing projects. I was not able to ascertain if activity has continued to increase beyond the high level reported in the annual meeting.

    Lots of international interest. Vani had just that morning received an inquiry from a country in the Caribbean for batteries to support a solar project. He's also had lots of interest from India although he noted that Axion would need to establish support infrastructure there.

    I sought and received Mr. Dantam's confirmation about the method JP uses to estimate PbC sales. He agreed with my statement that since Axion is charging customers for test batteries that John's PbC sales estimate will reflect the level/trend of testing activity.

    Vani is well aware of the need to show sales before the next fund raise. He was optimistic that there would be good news before year-end. Obviously, he can't say much, but I had to voice the concern that every one of us must share.

    There is one thing I can say about the personnel issues that several people have brought up. Marketing the Residential Hub to the CEDIA audience is obviously Joe P's thing. He conceived of the product two years ago, championed it, and eventually won Mr. Granville's approval. At CEDIA, Mr. Granville and Mr. Dantam stayed in the background. They sometimes listened in on the conversations between the RoseWater people and the installers but didn't say much, if anything at all, during those conversations. They seemed to be there for the same reason I was there.

    On a related note, this is probably a good opportunity to point out the respect Joe showed to us Axionistas. He could have easily told me to go away and come back later when fewer people would be in the booth, or just have me hang back more. Instead, several times he told me to come in closer (Joe was in the process of losing his voice so it was very difficult to hear him while also keeping a respectful distance). A few of the installers seemed to take note of all the "hangers on" but none of them let it bother them. Clearly Joe understood that I was representing all of you and he thought that sufficiently important to justify allowing me to hang out in what was a relatively crowded booth.

    In conclusion, I can't say this is comprehensive. I know I'm late getting this out. I'll add more as my recollection permits and am glad to answer your questions as best I can. I'll also go and review the questions on the instablog and add here any further responses to those questions.
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    In consideration of potential bandwidth and other concerns, we've omitted the pictures that APMarshal provided in APC 150. You can revisit Axion Power Concentrator 150: Sep. 12, 2012: APMarshall's Notes From CEDIA September 2012 to read the article and view the pictures or click the below links to just view the individual pictures.

    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474164623192055-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474165613913403-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474167047484539-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-1347416800736399-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
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    John Petersen has provided price and volume charts updated through 9/14/2012.

    (click to enlarge)John Petersen

    (click to enlarge)John Petersen

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    Axion Power Concentrator 149: Sep. 9, 2012: Rosewater Energy Hub Articles, John Petersen's Updated Graphs, have links to several recent Rosewater-related articles and earlier charts from John Petersen.
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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    Testing Summary Statistics On Stocks. FocalPoint Analytics has begun an instablog that will apply statistical disciplines to metrics of stock activity to produce summary indications of likely actions going forward. Well worth a visit.
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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (324)
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  • Tentacle Domination!

     

    http://bit.ly/RDDjjA
    21 Sep 2012, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • Last post asking for votes on this...

     

    If against sharing the Axionista shareholder survey with Axion management, like this comment (by me) http://bit.ly/QrtaRT

     

    If in favor of sharing the Axionista shareholder survey with Axion management, like this comment (by John Peteresen) http://bit.ly/S3rilN

     

    If you don't care, don't vote.

     

    This isn't going to be an easy majority vote decision to my way of thinking. Sharing the numbers was *not* part of the deal when I collected the numbers and I'm not sure everyone would have submitted the data they did if they thought I was going to share. I'd be more comfortable making the call with an overwhelming majority in favor, or a distinct minority against. Thank you.
    21 Sep 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Springer,
    It would appear to me that little interest has been shown by either side. I wouldn't waste to much time and energy on the issue. Your great work in gathering the data and disseminating it to us should not be overshadowed by the new question.
    21 Sep 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Jon, apparently there is no strong objection to sharing. Understandably, people gave you information; if they wanted to be secretive, they would not have disclosed it.

     

    Disclosing a non-audited, self-reported subset of stockholders reported x owned shares in aggregate is hardly headline news or threatening. Go share it.

     

    I am a shareholder but did not report, so feel free to ignore this post.
    21 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • i vote for more buyers and less sellers :)
    21 Sep 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • 5th... sheesh.
    21 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Elon Musk on In the Loop with Betty Liu on Bloomberg this morning (15 minutes:)

     

    http://bloom.bg/TdUmcX

     

    Hedge city w.r.t. Tesla
    21 Sep 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • That, and let's change the subject to rockets.
    21 Sep 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • It will be interesting to see what the big announcement on Monday will really turn out to be concerning the super chargers. Musk was claiming they were going to build over a 100 of them and you would be able to drive across the country with them. It will be interesting to see how long you are going to have to wait at each charge station to recharge you battery and if you can do so more than once a day.
    21 Sep 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, I realize you have to start somewhere, but really, how excited can one be if they go into a car dealership and find out that there will be 100 special gas stations in a country the size of the US besides the very few "normal" ones.

     

    I'm reminded of the people that drive 10 miles to get 10 cents off on a gallon of petrol.

     

    Heck, I'm getting excited hoping we get to subsidize these charging stations. Anything to be part of the excitement.
    21 Sep 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Any ideas as to the cost of a quick fill-er-up or how long it might actually take???
    21 Sep 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Don't know the cost but speed should be between 30-45 minutes, depending of course on how empty your pack is. After 200-250 miles of driving I don't think most people would have a problem with that, certainly not the people who actually bought the vehicles.
    22 Sep 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3, Is that to 80%?

     

    The few articles I've seen on quick charging EV's typically quote to 80% for reasons I'm sure you are aware of. :)
    22 Sep 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • I want t own the Starbucks franchise right next to the eStation...
    22 Sep 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Yes I'd guess around 80-85% or so.
    23 Sep 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3, Thanks!

     

    If you happen to bump into an article that shares the details as they become available please post it if you get a chance.
    23 Sep 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Come Tuesday morning you can bet your bottom dollar that the media will be chock full of stories about Tesla's wondrous supercharger network. I'll also bet my bottom dollar that none of them will give fair coverage to the probability that it will be the biggest cash black hole in history. Even if you assume a million monster battery packs on the road, an infinitesimally small percentage of them will be taking a long trip on any given day. When you spread infinitesimally small over 100 charging stations, you could probably use them as a machine gun training facilities for the blind with no risk of injury.
    23 Sep 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • "...you could probably use them as a machine gun training facilities for the blind with no risk of injury."

     

    Where do you come up with this stuff! LOL

     

    BTW, Did you see this earlier. You would know better than I why he might do this. All I could guess was taxes and cross borrowing of assets for purposes of short term loads. But quite frankly I'm speaking in ignorance.

     

    "Elon Musk, co-founder of Tesla Motors Inc. and founder of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., said he's interested in creating a holding company for shares of his electric car and rocket launch businesses."

     

    http://bit.ly/Uu8le4
    23 Sep 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Some images just pop into my mind and then come blurting out. I guess I've been married to Rachel for too long, because it's second nature for her too.

     

    I have a very evil mind when it comes to statements about people who are considering holding companies. The one thing Tesla desperately wants to avoid is a financing that goes off at a big discount to market. But given it's tenuous financial condition, I'd be sharpening my knives and polishing my brass knuckles if I was a potential investor.

     

    I can see a situation where an investor said "I'm not all that interested in Tesla but I'd love to have a piece of SpaceX. If you can find a way to get me SpaceX at a decent price if I give you the money you need for Tesla, then we might be able to do business."

     

    That kind of a structure would require Musk to take a beating on his SpaceX shares, but it would let him fine tune the optics of a deep discount Tesla offering up to a point where it looked pretty good for public consumption.

     

    The hard part would be developing a structure that gives the investors stock in the two companies instead of a private holding company.
    23 Sep 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • <<<When you spread infinitesimally small over 100 charging stations, you could probably use them as a machine gun training facilities for the blind with no risk of injury.>>>

     

    Absolutely priceless.... LMAO
    23 Sep 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tune in tonight for all the details:
    http://bit.ly/QpV8An
    As I've said before I expect supercharger stations with solar panels and battery banks, tied to the grid. This would allow not only supercharging vehicles but also selling power back into the grid. Contrary to Mr. Petersen's speculation these supercharging stations will probably not be sitting idle when a vehicle is not charging from them.
    24 Sep 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • That may be, but the configuration you describe sure won't be making money.
    24 Sep 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Looks as if at this time they won't be using battery backup, so just solar panels and grid connection. Obviously this lowers the cost of the installation by not using battery backup, and I guess Musk thinks the solar power fed back into the grid is worth enough that Model S owners will be allowed to charge for free. The supercharger network already has 6 stations up and running, covering most of CA.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • 150 miles on a 30-minute charge doesn't sound that great to me.

     

    I used to get 300+ miles on a 10-minute fill-up with my Acura Integra.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • " 150 miles on a 30-minute charge doesn't sound that great to me.

     

    I used to get 300+ miles on a 10-minute fill-up with my Acura Integra. "

     

    Doesn't sound good, much less great. Just drove a conventional ICE Camry 1,500 miles and refilled at just under 500 mile range. The convenience of stopping to stretch legs, eat, sightsee, etc. without tie to vehicle refueling is great.
    25 Sep 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • The convenience of being able to plug in at home on a daily basis and fill up for much less money is great. You choose convenience a few times a year at best over daily driving convenience. I'd never drive 1,500 miles in anything, so it's no sacrifice for me.
    26 Sep 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • "I'd never drive 1,500 miles in anything, so it's no sacrifice for me. "

     

    :-) Then we won't look for you on the AlCan highway. 'Tis a shame you will "never" enjoy the astounding beauty and diversity encountered driving , say, from Seattle, Washington up through British Columbia, Yukon Territory and in to Alaska. Or, more simply, the great variety of sights and people encountered in a cross-country USA drive.
    26 Sep 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • I live in a beautiful area with interesting people, most of whom I will never meet. Do I need to drive 1500 miles to see more people? If you need to drive long distances to see beauty you probably live in the wrong place.
    29 Sep 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Just last week completed the drive from Toronto to Whitehorse in order to help a friend move house. 5 very long days. Stunning beauty of the leaves changing colour along the Superior north shore. Also as you say the part of northern BC just south of Yukon, best mountain drive I have ever done. Bison, elk, black bear, bald eagles, moose and deer. Hard enough to find gas stations let alone EV charging stations.
    7 Oct 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • A little excitement. Last purchase 5k @ 29.4 cents. Current bid raised to 29.2 cents.
    21 Sep 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • I tought it would try to start moving back towards the averages, but I thought it would be a few days as the shorts and buy:sell came back towards normal. And this happens on a Friday?

     

    Buy:sell is pretty good though - 2.91:1 through 13:22.

     

    Strange days again.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • I helped push today. One thing it revealed is there was mostly air above the high .28's. Monday is another day, though. The retail sellers could be back bigger again, and NITE and even now EGRO are both at 30 cents. Recently we've been able to take 100k-150k of selling/day, at least when it's spaced out a bit. In contrast, the other day's 125k selling in a few minutes knocked it down a penny. Dumb selling. Smoothness, and everyone wins.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • MrI: "Smoothness, and everyone wins".

     

    I think that describes my "grind up" desire, on longer times-frames.

     

    We know that nothing is straight up or down, but the HFTs of the world have everybody thinking down is straight (and Nanex suggests that it is *quite* common - 10K "flash crashes" so far this year in individual instruments). So everybody's like a bronco around a rattlesnake.

     

    I'm not pushing ATM, but I'm not selling either.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Investor, Thanks for helping push! I can't see the upper levels but I was hoping there weren't many sell offers above 29. I realize that there could be more sellers back, but I'm optimistic that JP's inflection point took place today. The small rally at the end of the day kept the glimmer of hope alive. The next few trading days will either prove it right or postpone it to a later date.
    21 Sep 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • It's impossible to know when something as complex as a supply and demand inflection will occur. I picked the fall equinox as a likely target time, but this is a process and specific dates are meaningless. The progress has been huge and the numbers are shaping up nicely, but I'd hate to have anybody say "but John, you promised the sellers would be gone by Monday."
    22 Sep 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • JVeal: "The next few trading days will either prove it right or postpone it to a later date".

     

    I wouldn't take this POV yet. We are near EOQ. "Window dressing" is in process. As a short-term effect, seeing most selling pressure gone by now would not be unusual, nor would it be so to see some come back as last-minute adjustments to portfolios are made.

     

    I would defer guesstimates until a week or two into October.

     

    Even though I have seen signs in my experimental stuff that I interpret as suggestive that sell pressure is abating, it is longer-term in nature (the lower peaks of short sales percentage spikes after 7/16's high) and I'm holding off on assessing whether "they" are out.

     

    Having said that, I've been stating for some time that it looks like the *majority* of big selling has been near exhausted, with only my concerns for Special Situations possibly morphing into a momentum trader concerning me.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • In your opinion, with SS perhaps morphing into a swing trader and may have an impact, do you think it'll have a *significant* impact? Or will it simply cause the grind up higher to be slower than it should be?
    22 Sep 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know what SS is, but I doubt that they're a swing trader. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that they bought in the February placement and Tom needed the cash badly enough that he was willing to overlook their 2011 misbehavior. It doesn't make much sense to me because I'd be pretty darned unforgiving under those circumstances, but one never knows. Regardless of what SS strategy is, their holdings are too small to make a big difference unless they shoot for a big hit in the mid-40s, which is the first level where they'll be able to profit. Nobody can make money buying at $.35 and selling at $.30.
    22 Sep 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Can't imagine anyone swing trading Axion. Not near enough volume on a day to day basis to make it anything other than a PITA. Try to buy or sell 5 or 10 K USD worth and you're making the market.

     

    It is possible Special Sits saw Quercus as the pain they were going to be for some time so they took the opportunity to sell last year and buy again this year. Not what we would like but I think we can appreciate it as a possible play. In hind sight it worked for them if that's what happened.

     

    Didn't hurt Quercus too much either since they were pumping the proceeds into a solar black hole anyway.
    22 Sep 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not sure we'll see a sustained (though gradual) upturn any time soon, barring a significant news release. We have no idea how much tax loss selling there will be. I don't believe volume is so great that it will easily overcome this headwind, even if it's not from one "big shooter."

     

    I think there might be some individuals that will try (or have recently tried) to get ahead of the "year end" tax selling. In fact, if you think we're due for good news [and there a number of different possibilities,] and you need to be out for 30 days before getting back in, time's a wasting. You might even want to be out well before the next conference call so you can be back in by the time it happens.

     

    I would note we've seen a fairly steady parade of ATDF sellers over the last month or so. We believe those are mostly smaller retail clients. Some of helped walk us down in price.

     

    While I don't have a good idea of how many (if any) "institutions" are involved in AXPW, I do know that a significant number of mutual funds have their fiscal year end at the end of October, not September. Here's a video from last year that talks about good way to play that which you may want to consider for other "downtrodden" stocks you may be interested in:

     

    http://bit.ly/tokhzs

     

    In summary, I think October may be a lot like September ... as we wait for news to really turn the tide.
    22 Sep 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • John: my concern for SS as a momentum or swing trader is not that they are selling now, but just that the sold and then bought and why? Tax loss? Taking advantage of low prices to step back in to what end?

     

    Without knowing their strategy for doing this, it leaves the question of why open. My worry is that *if* they have morphed, they could come with unexpected selling pressure when some target price is met. Not knowing that price too just leaves the question of future effect open for me.

     

    My concern is almost always "down the road", rather than what just happened.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Tax loss selling requires an investor to sell, stay out of the market during the wash sale period, and then repurchase at the same price. It only happens if the investor has a firm conviction that nothing good can occur during the wash sale period that will significantly change the price.

     

    Logic says the price won't move in the absence of an event. My experience with supply and demand imbalances has been dramatic price surges in a matter of days for no discernible reason.

     

    That's why they always caught me by surprise.
    22 Sep 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Dastar: without knowing anything about them, and having only suspicions, and I can't recall their holdings (John, do you recall?), ... I can't offer anything but a concern that they might have an effect somewhere down the road.

     

    And do recall that evidence that they may have become a trader is quite thin: only the fact that they exited their position (at a time when it could have been tax-advantaged to do so) and re-entered sometime after the first of the year offers that possibility to me.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Wtb: That was a good post. Thank you. One more thing to try and integrate, generally.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • "Regardless of what SS strategy is, their holdings are too small to make a big difference unless they shoot for a big hit in the mid-40s, which is the first level where they'll be able to profit. Nobody can make money buying at $.35 and selling at $.30."

     

    My suspision is they were the ones selling at $.41 right out of the gate (feb placement) until they meet their target at which time they shook the tree by driving the price down to $.30 at which time they loaded up again and then sold again at $.35, rinse and repeat - dirty bastards! <smile>

     

    <<tin foil hat removed and back to the art of positive thinking>>
    22 Sep 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the link to the Tesla interview. I got the impression that their answer to reduced battery capacity is the building of 100 rapid charging stations across the country. I would love to see how their useful battery capacity numbers behave as a function of depth of discharge, temperature stress, frequency of discharges, and particularly speed of the charge.

     

    My guess is the discussion on slow production to insure initial build quality was to provide a rationale as to why they are going to need to make an offering in the near future. Battery issues should increase in importance to e-vehicle owners as a function of time. My guess is that time horizon will be quite short, particularly in areas subjects to temperature extremes.
    21 Sep 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • I'm sure Tesla will have adequate answers to all your useful battery capacity questions in the 2017 to 2020 timeframe when the results are in from the first generations of buyers (a/k/a lab rats).
    21 Sep 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Some time ago, before the great calamity, Into the valley of dearth strode the few hundred... hopeful in heart, light in foot, forward they plunged...and onward they marched. And onward. And onward. While the seasons slowly drew behind them...

     

    That was years ago.

     

    But it is now this day. Which I hereby dub "Mud Crispin's Day"

     

    Mark ye: All will count their manhood cheap, who were not here with us, in these bitter depths, all through this long slog, this interminable sapping parade of SSDDs.... But which were necessary. All too necessary. Take heart my Brothah's! For the land now rises...though scarcely we feel it. Rain and sunshine we see are kindling far to the east. This endless brown landscape will yield at last, to new waters, and fresh greenscapes. Where friends ahead wait to join and give us refreshment...

     

    If only we can endure. If only.

     

    For that is no little thing.

     

    Though some be stouter than others.

     

    I don't want to leave my bleached and blasted bones in this valley. But lo, the sun, the miles, they scour and scourge. My skin becomes leather, my breath thin rasps... but numb feet *will* trudge on.

     

    Further, still further stride the few hundred...

     

    All hail Mud Crispin's Day!!!
    21 Sep 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • I wish I could write with that kind of poetic abandon.

     

    There's nothing my frail but inflated ego would like better than to see the fall equinox prove to be Mud Crispin's Day. I trust you'll forgive me if I hold off on my victory dance for a week or two.

     

    http://bit.ly/SJ54Sp
    21 Sep 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Five to one and all fresh. But sellers they be with limited stores.

     

    http://bit.ly/UyN3dD
    21 Sep 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Very nice, 48. Just what I needed after doing some reminiscing. Was recalling when my brother called me in the early 90's and told me to put every penny I had into AAPL. Told me to borrow all I could and buy more. It was selling for $13. At the time I owned two houses, three mortgages on them and had two young kids. I couldn't borrow any more and had no spare money at all. You know how that story played out. Of course, would I have held on to those shares if I had bought? Each of those shares would be 4 now, each worth $700. Oh well.

     

    So I pulled up a long-term chart on AAPL, and see that in the early 80's you could buy it under $3 and there was another split there, which means 1 share bought then would be 8 shares now, plus there was a decent dividend back then as well.

     

    As JP says, there are plenty of people who complain about the one that got away.

     

    Anyway, this story is leading somewhere, and that is I have been trying to convince my brother that he should buy all the AXPW he can. I'm just trying to repay the favor.

     

    Maybe in 10 years we'll all look back at how fortunate we were to be able to buy at 30 cents.
    21 Sep 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • We few, we (soon to be) happy few, we Band of Bloggers...

     

    The best ever rendition of the St. Crispin's Day speech..
    http://bit.ly/Tetxpd
    21 Sep 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco
    Thanks for the link. Great speech, one day we Axionistas should schedule a Mud Crispin's Day celebration.
    sb
    21 Sep 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for posting that, Renzo! Ever since this convo was started yesterday, I've had Kenneth Branuagh's voice in my head and had been meaning to look up that scene.
    22 Sep 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • i want a close above .30 ;)
    21 Sep 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • I want a close above 30.00... if we're gonna talk about wants.

     

    ***

     

    We're a bit range bound at the moment... I'd like to get to the *next* range... which means closing above .35 in my opinion. The krill http://bit.ly/VlCI4r have until then to pile in.
    21 Sep 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • On a separate topic. Public Relations. Open question.

     

    What do folks think Axion could do to improve PR?

     

    On the one hand, a few people mentioned recently that Axion PR is not that good. On the other hand, exactly what can they say? They have a bunch of things that are in progress with various companies and more than 3 dozen non-disclosures agreements (which, by nature, means they cannot disclose what's going on).

     

    On the one hand, we'd like to feel that the share price and company was being better supported by PR. On the other hand, we're invested in the company in part because they have taken a conservative approach to-date that has gotten them this far in good standing.

     

    For every point I can think of that favors "better PR", I always think of a counterpoint. Thus, I'm unsure, and thought maybe this would spark some dialogue...
    21 Sep 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • I'd like to see a good deal more white paper disclosure, along with public availability of financial and industry conference presentations. I'd also like to hear more complete explanations of the kinds of potential customers Axion has in the pipeline and how they expect the selling process to unfold. Beyond that, I agree that PR is very difficult at this stage in Axion's development.
    21 Sep 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • They have a sufficiently informative web site and even an investor presentation pdf, the only thing that lacks are the press releases informing about new orders.
    21 Sep 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Somebody should make a politically incorrect youtube video that features the PbC and tweaks a few current hot buttons...

     

    "Lithium's just the battery that I used to know..."

     

    http://bit.ly/P6EPFD

     

    And then it will go viral.
    And then:
    Mo money, mo money!
    yeah, that's the ticket... ;)
    ------

     

    "Once upon a time they said you were going to save us...
    From the evilness of oil that fouled & scourged the land...
    That you were going to be cheap enough, and then replace all that icky stuff...
    But Now you're just the lithium that I used to know..."

     

    "After a while we all came to see, that all the promise was a travesty,
    and we started looking back to our old technology...

     

    With a bit of russian help, and the pluck of some amazing folk, we advanced what had been a dead idea....
    all the way into a revolutionary high power wonder...

     

    Now we all can clearly see, the awesome benefit of the PbC, the epic sustainable battery to lead the way... "
    21 Sep 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • I would like to see Axion buy two current start/stop cars. Even better would be four. Now convert one of the two or two of the four to the PbC. Now run the vehicles side by side in different kinds of conditions. The tests should be monitored by an independent private agency. If the PbC works as we think it will work, several options present themselves at this point, including public relations types of communications.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Axion is invisible and secretive. Not good. The website is boring. Even worse.

     

    The website is ancient - much of it is "All content © 2007-2009 Axion Power International, Inc. Design by 2GO Media." "The motive power market presently accounts for over $2.2 billion in annual lead-acid battery sales and is projected to grow to $2.8 billion by 2009." - I suspect the 2009 market is known now.

     

    No references on web-site to new products/partnerships, such as Residential Hub, work with BMW, etc. Only buried links in lists of links.

     

    Embarrassingly light on technical specifications. It's silly that we can get sizes and weights from RoseWater's site, but not Axion's.

     

    Overall, totally sizzle-free.

     

    I have discussed being _slightly_ more adventurous, stop calling the battery P-B-C (which only chemical geeks will understand), stop emphasizing the battery is made of boring/poisonous lead, and start calling it Bio-Carbon. Or call it something else, but don't put the market to sleep with P-B-C as a brand.

     

    Do some stunts. If Bio-Carbon can really accept 200 amp charges, have a contest. Charge a lithium, traditional AGM, and a Bio-carbon simultaneously at 200 amps until the other two explode or catch fire. Post the video on Youtube. Or some other spectacle. Drive a copper spike through the Li and Bio-Carbon, video the fireworks from the Li. Or burn them in a bonfire, started with gasoline. Etc.

     

    Bio-carbons (I think) have higher discharge rates. Can you make a toy go-cart, and have the Bio-Carbon beat the AGM in a drag race? There is an extremely active "buggy" group at Carnegie-Mellon (just down the road) that might love to do something like this.

     

    I will stop now. There is soooooooooooo much Axion could be doing, and doing cheaply.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • I propose "Living in Lithium Paradise" to this, with appropriate words regarding DOE, "hype cycles", picking taxpayer pockets, ...

     

    http://bit.ly/UnocGU

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT "Living in EV Paradise"?
    21 Sep 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • >FocalPointAnalytics ... That EV pickup truck ought to laying around somewhere. I can't see spending any money on it because it would piss-off the OEM's.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Jon S., I hereby nominate you for Axionista Liaison. From my perspective, feel free to submit some of the best PR suggestions to Axion mgmt when you let them know our size.

     

    Looking at the overview, there is 1) what you say and 2) who you say it to. I think a lot of groups win when both are improved---the company, prospective customers, shareholders, etc.

     

    1) What you say. Lots of good suggestions here. I would add that I'd like to see TG/Mgmt be available to shareholders a bit more, e.g., lengthen the CC Q&A at least a bit. Adhering to the current hour time limit cuts off some Q's. Host another shareholders' event, perhaps between the long, long gap between Q3 and Q4 CCs.

     

    2) Who you say it to. I think this is every bit as valuable to the stock price as what you say (regarding PR). I'd prefer Investor Relations, actually. Get out there and drum up some more buying interest. Geez, half the people I talk to about AXPW show some interest, and about 20% invest. That is a phenominal hit rate. Imagine even, say, 2%, but multiplied by a large number of qualified prospective investors. I was in investment sales and believe me, it really is a numbers/exposure game. Yet I don't hear a peep outta Allen & Caron regarding banging the drum and investor days and dog & pony shows, etc.. Probably either they are all about behind the scenes only (a mistake with a story as compelling as Axions', IMO) or Axion doesn't want to pay for the service. Another mistake, IMO. Even a modest sum could go a long way, e.g., a couple more million share investors and who knows how much better off we'd be.

     

    JP has been the Defacto Investor Relations Dept., and he's done a fantastic job. Would be extremely helpful to us all if he had some more help.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Step one is to see how it does head to head under the identical conditions. After that, they could evaluate what to do with the information. PR does not have to be to the general public, it could be to the OEMs. If Axion can provide a product that substantially improves an OEMs product and I was TG, I would want those head to head tests in my pocket. This is just one of the potential options.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • RK,

     

    Gotta like your thinking. Axion has clearly always been more a workhorse than a showhorse... with more than enough attention to contend with from those who mattered, thank you very much. But now, unless something big is truly imminent, perhaps it is finally time to fire up a bit of showmanship...
    21 Sep 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • FPA> The fascinating thing about batteries is you can learn more about them in a well equipped lab than you can in a car. The lab lets you beat the living daylights out of a battery 24/7 and it generates results that you'd never be able get with a vehicle.

     

    By the time a battery like the PbC makes it through OEM testing like Axion just did with BMW, they know everything there is to know about the battery and the sole purpose of putting it into a vehicle is to ensure that the battery and all the other electrical and electro-mechanical components function properly as a system.

     

    In the last CC Tom was talking about how the Asian OEM was simply going to piggy-back the work BMW has already done. They'll do the battery testing equivalent of an audit of BMW's work, but its pretty clear that the customer directed PR materials you'd like to see already exist in spades.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • I have to agree about the website, in particular. If I came across Axion on this Concentrator and wanted to due some DD, their website wouldn't inspire great confidence. While a glitzy site would be a waste, dowdy seems like a red flag.

     

    I have no idea what reasonable website design costs, but it can't be too many manhole covers-worth to get it to the point where it's not arguably a negative.
    21 Sep 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Rick,
    While I tend to agree with you about "PbC" as a brand, I think Bio-Carbon sounds a little too "me too" Green and is technically redundant as "bio" means carboniferous on this planet.

     

    How about just Metal-Carbon or Graphite-Metal?

     

    Or maybe Coconut-Lead? ;-)
    21 Sep 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: "PR does not have to be to the general public, it could be to the OEMs".

     

    Or a "strategically-aligned" investor, whomever it may be?

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo: I think "dowdy" is bad, but we don't want too "glitzy" either - always address your audience. IMO, the "front page" should have very little "glitz".

     

    Who will be looking and what will they be looking for? Make it fast and efficient for them to visually find and navigate to what they are looking for with minimal time, effort and "visual distillation".

     

    Once they've found it and navigated there, that's where a little "glitz" could be beneficial.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • I agree, HTL.

     

    While I have no way to impute motives for the lacking site updates, my guess id there's a tendency to view the company's cyber-presence differently than their physical presence, which is a mistake.

     

    I don't think for a minute that TG wouldn't fork over the money for painters and a new sign if the New Castle plant started to look run down--it just looks bad to the community and potential customers and suggests a lack of attention to detail. Their web presence should be viewed in the same light.
    21 Sep 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rick,

     

    I'd be happy for you to elaborate. That was an interesting start.
    21 Sep 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Exactly!
    21 Sep 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo, I don't care what they choose, so long as it has some zing.

     

    "Graphite-metal" doesn't work as the Bio-Carbon batteries do not have graphite. The East Penn batteries do, however.

     

    Popularly "Bio" does not just mean carboniferous. "Bio-fuels" do not include fossil fuels, even although essentially all petroleum is of biogenic origin. "Bio-diesel" is from recent plants, not from another geological epoch.
    21 Sep 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo: "Their web presence should be viewed in the same light".

     

    +1 on that!

     

    hardToLove
    21 Sep 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Rick,

     

    I'll concede "graphite" is inaccurate so I'll amend that to Carbon-Metal Battery or CMB. I guess will have to agree to disagree on whether "bio" implies carbon or not.

     

    OTOH, I think the last thing we want to do is evoke an economically discredited push for widespread commercial use of bio-fuels by calling it a Bio-Carbon battery.

     

    Not trying to start a trademark war, just a good-natured discussion of branding.
    21 Sep 2012, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with you wholeheartedly Rick

     

    Website is dull and boring and PR is non existant, because of the secrecy.
    That IMHO is all Granville
    21 Sep 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • 48..... you are simply brilliant.... what can I say.... TG should hire you directly into their PR dept.!!!
    22 Sep 2012, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • Rambo: Not only have you misrepresented yourself (once again, you troll), you are a liar. You've once again tried to create an identity of which this time JP -- you proclaim yourself as an old school investor -- blew your doors off.

     

    Go create another ID. That ID, this ID, so many you've created, will be realized, as they always have.

     

    If I could find the password for the APH, I'd wipe out every one of your useless comments.
    22 Sep 2012, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • Hi Rick,
    I'm old enough to think of toxic electrical transformer oil when I hear the initials, PBC. Yeah, maybe I'm dyslexic, but that is what it reminds me of.
    22 Sep 2012, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick- While it is of course true that the web page date is somewhat out of date, the investor presentation is actually dated 2011 (Dec.29th) and contains reference to 3rd quarter milestones of 2011, another positive, they have archived webcasts, no given for all microcaps.

     

    Also jumping on the BIO bandwagon in a time when it may have passed its peak and many people actively work to discredit bio (like bio food) and other green aspects like global warming (climagate) and in a way it is also a political statement (Rep=money vs. Dem=spending, my foreign view here) I think is unnecessary if you have such a nice term like PbC, in the end it is something technical where a good amount intelligence is needed for.

     

    So PbC sounds quite sexy ...
    22 Sep 2012, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • MAYA

     

    FYI Rambo isn't who you think it is. That guy has been in the hospital for months.

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Maya

     

    re Johnny...well said.
    I think it important to expose the repeat trolls when they reappear.
    Many readers are so deep in the AXPW technical story, they miss the trolls and their under the radar misleading/disruptive missives.
    Also, with many more readers, exposing the troll's strategies helpful.

     

    I actually posted a troll "caution" comment on John's TSC article.
    Getting heavy over there.

     

    Rick...hope you don't mind...I quoted one of your trolls exposure comments on TSC...used your quote, but did not attribute to anyone.
    When someone says it more precisely and concisely than myself, why not "borrow" it.
    22 Sep 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • MAP

     

    With all due respect, Jr's most recent comment(s) do not pass the "acid test".
    22 Sep 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Fun PR stunt ideas Rick. And I agree that there's a lot more PR (and IR) stuff they could be doing cheaply.

     

    I will add, regarding the website only, that it's existence as a sales tool is almost meaningless. Yes, Axion should have one, and thus it should be respectable, but no way are they getting any actual sales out of it directly. At best, every now and then they'll get a qualified lead to follow up on. But the PbC and related systems are not commodity products. Proactive sales is absolutety the only way to go regarding their sales approach. Thankfully, the company knows it, as they hired Vani and don't give the sales part of the website the time of day. Not what some people around here want to hear, for sure, but the sober business truth, in my experience.
    22 Sep 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Let's start with: who is the PR for?

     

    I would argue that the PR is not for customers or potential customers and I don't think it can have any impact on the timelines of an NS or BMW.

     

    I don't think the PR would have any impact on a strategic investor either.

     

    Customers and strategic investors require far more extensive DD than any PR campaign or website could ever give.

     

    So the PR is really just for retail investors, for us - are we really so needy?

     

    Or is it more just that we're impatient and bored and, dammit, we want to see some action?

     

    D
    22 Sep 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • R K- Very cool post
    22 Sep 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • I love your ideas. Excellent. thanks
    24 Sep 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • >Jon Springer ... The best (and only one I care to hear about) would be a design win. Next, an announcement of manufacturing partnership. The business model doesn't lend itself to public PR. Pushing the white paper (wish there were more of them) to developers is really the only PR that will pay off.
    21 Sep 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • I also don't see where they can do much on the PR side.

     

    I'd like to see 4 things as an investor.

     

    1) Full PBC specs.

     

    2) Carbon sheeting capacity information and some sense of the quality.

     

    3) Carbon anode line cycle time, efficiency, quality with firm information on a path to make the next line perform to the business plan.

     

    4) Broken out sales on the 10Q for PBC sales and classic battery sales.
    21 Sep 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • I totally agree lab testing lets you torture the batteries. But the last step in the approval process is testing in situ. That lets you compare performance in terms of actual vehicle performance numbers. I think we are going to see first generation Start/Stop systems using AGMs failing after a certain number of start/stop events in a particular time period. I am saying it would be great to have in situ comparisons of the PbC advantage in terms of actual vehicle performance.
    21 Sep 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, only 36,000 FINRA short today. Subtract out Q's portion, and it's even a lot smaller.
    21 Sep 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • MrI: I'm not sure Quercus was in today. I'm finagling the numbers now to see if there's any suggestion of it. So far it looks like they weren't in, or at least it's well hidden. That AH 4K is the only suggestion and the size is a bit odd. We have *occasionally* seen AH trades that weren't Quercus related, based on filings in the past.

     

    The rise in shorts is good - it indicates the market-makers are not long and looking to unload, is my best deduction so far. From some looks in the past, "normal" was an average of ~36%, IIRC, over several months. Then it dropped to ~20% area for a while. Since we've not had a longer "normal" period without some big dumping going on yet, I don't know what a real normal is yet.

     

    My gut is telling me somewhere around 30% or so.

     

    I'm about finished with my EOD stuff and after I finish seeing if it looks like Quercus somehow got snuck in or not, I'll post it.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • The one thing you can say about Quercus is that they're consistent when they're in the market. While we've always viewed the AH trades as a good indicator of their presence, the AH trade was usually a good deal smaller than 10%. My sense has always been that they traded what they traded during the day, and used the AH trade to clean up any loose ends.
    22 Sep 2012, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • 9/21/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied from my instablog (up later)
    # Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 240689, AvTrSz: 4541
    Min. Pr: 0.2870, Max Pr: 0.2960, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2913
    # Buys, Shares: 28 156750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2923
    # Sells, Shares: 13 83939, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2896
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell .87:1 (65.1% “buys”), DlyShts 36000 (15%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 42.89%

     

    I don't believe Quercus was in today. 1/11th of the total volume, including the 4K AH trade at $0.291, would be ~21.9K. The last six trades would hit 21K shares, but the VWAP of $0.2949 would be near the high, not what I would expect if the market-maker is making covering purchases near EOD. And the AH trade was much smaller than what we normally observe when it appears Quercus has been here. There were a series of smaller trades earlier that would be at a lower price that might be Quercus-related, but they began around 14:30, much earlier than normally seen. The other larger trades that might have been related seem to be at $0.29 or greater. Some could be Quercus shares, but there's not even any strong indications I can detect that suggest this – they were even earlier in the day.

     

    Well, I expected a small rise to start moving towards the averages in a few days, but it starts on a Friday? Yes, it's really no big deal: low +$0.003, high +0.002 and VWAP + 0.0024. But the shorts are behaving well (i.e. as we expected) by moving slowly into the lower areas of normal (22.83%, 30.32%, 27.25%, and 25.21% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively), buy:sell trending up (“buys” 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages 48%, 53%, 52%, and 54% respectively) and volume, although low currently, is not falling off a cliff here – since 9/5 it's been vacillating right around my four averages. Coming off the downward cycle and abysmal short spike and poor buy:sell, I'm impressed.

     

    On the traditional TA front, price continues to move further away from the falling support of the downward channel, currently ~$0.269. And it's not just the line falling away – the lows are trying to move up ($0.2830, $0.2840, $0.2840, and $0.2870). And the highs are trying to help out, but having a harder time ATM - $0.3050, $0.2950, $0.2940, and $0.2960. But all this is early still and only the MFI, at 45.6, is nearing getting actually bullish (over 50).

     

    One thing bears repeating. I mentioned a few days back that the leg down looked like it didn't want to complete the run to the support line. I think this is confirmation of that change in behavior – even with the large short sales spike and bad buy:sell seen off and on since 9/13, the low has refused to go back to that seen, $0.2806, on 9/12.

     

    As I mentioned previously, the short sales percentage spike peaks have been getting lower since the 7/16 high. Putting all this together, along with the lowered volume, I think we are seeing confirmation of less pressure from big sellers. It's not going to take much for retail investors to see the much-reduced downside risk and become willing to dip a toe in.

     

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells' 42.89%" has been omitted here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • i think we test 34 cents next week for what its worth. in a perfect world we pause somewhere between there and 35 cents and get a bullish flag before another leg up. i don't expect any tax selling to push prices lower unless we get another global econ event.

     

    am i totally alone on this?
    22 Sep 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu: "am i totally alone on this? ".

     

    Probably not. But thinking in the traditional TA terms ...

     

    I have in mind the unexpected, by me, resistance to an up leg encountered at $0.33 recently (8/23-8/29), where we did "touch" $0.34 on 8/24 and 8/27. 8/24 was only 550 shares and 5,570 at that price 8/27 - inconsequential volumes and insufficient to confidently tag $0.34 as a resistance or support area.

     

    The $0.33 terminating an up-leg makes a case for resistance again around that price. It's reinforced by the resistance line for the descending trading channel being at $0.33 ATM.

     

    However, $0.33 doesn't have much support in the past for this - only acting as bottoms in sideways moves before continuing a downward leg. I can't see, on the traditional charts before this recent occurrence, a point where it acted as resistance. Consolidation is what I believe is what I'm seeing in those segments with a bottom at $0.33.

     

    With the price seemingly trying to detach from the falling support of the descending channel, I'm looking for establishment, at this time, of a higher trading range. I don't know if it will initially trend up, down or sideways (or all three over time), but ...

     

    $0.35 has acted as both resistance in a leg up (7/25 top) and tops in two sideways consolidations (a short one in the week of 6/4 and longer one beginning the week of 6/18) before subsequent legs down.

     

    My argument for $0.37 rests solely on it acting as the bottom of a medium-term cup-and-handle formation that ultimately failed. The C&H formation covered 2/8-4/10, wherein the handle formation began to deteriorate and ultimately resulted in a descent to start our falling trading channel on 5/29.

     

    So why does $0.37 suggest itself as another resistance point? The cup formation can be seen as a rounding bottom formation and the bottom as the inflection point where we start the up-leg. So we can surmise that it acted as support and, as you know, "support becomes resistance".

     

    However, it hasn't been seriously tested since then (the leg down blew right through it and a subsequent very short-term consolidation ignored that price altogether), so we can't know if it is significant in the current environment because we think a lot has changed since then.

     

    The normal charts show $0.34 to be "no man's land", AFAICT. There's no *technical* suggestion that $0.34 is in play as a price point in any action, not as a top or bottom in any significant formation - leg up or down or consolidation.

     

    Leaving the confines of conventional thinking ...

     

    I interpret my experimental stuff as suggesting a longer-term exhaustion of the big selling is happening: short percentage spike peaks are trending lower; average trade sizes are hanging right around the averages and the long-term trend line; buy:sell has sell spikes trending lower and moving towards long-term trend line since the end of July while the buy peaks have been doing the same since around 8/22; volume is stabilizing around longer-term averages.

     

    Volatility is being substantially reduced ... if these metrics are leading indicators.

     

    When I first suggested that the price swing down might be detaching from the descending support on the traditional charts a short while ago, I suggested that it could be trying to establish a higher trading range.

     

    With volatility apparently reducing, if what's going to happen is establishment of a higher trading range (as volatility is reduced, this seems likely), my belief is that topping in the $0.35 or $0.37 area (or a range with bottom and top at those points), suggested on the traditional charts. would be most likely.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • I watch the website as a chemist, not an investor. That said, it's been kept as "up to date" as the majority and, IMO, well maintained.

     

    That said, I have to agree it is "boring" at first impression.

     

    I may be a chemist, but there are times in my current position where I have to be an educator, and many of my "students" (laboratory analysts) have long ago put the idea of further education out at the curb for pick-up. If I need to put a good idea in their brains, the first order of business is to provide inspiration or I will get nowhere.

     

    I have achieved success by avoiding expectations. I start "schooling" by promising bottom line results. Typically I have produced the product, so I know I have a great product and I know its' worth. They will be interested, because it solves this or that problem that has been making their life miserable or whatever. I believe this is where AXiion is at or I wouldn't be here at all.

     

    While a great product does not actually sell itself, its' greatness makes selling it a pleasure. This is exactly what salespeople must love.

     

    I don't know how many times I have been to the Axion site (many, but not how many), but I definitely don't remember the first time. I think that could be corrected.

     

    Put together, there's a "short list" of attributes of the PbC that has convinced us that there is a lot of money to be made, no matter our averaged pps. I would nominate Joe Pic to rejuvenate the site. His PbC conviction was evident and that's what sells. It is a very good point that visiting the current site does not "do due" justice (anyone looking for a translation of "DD" need look no further) to the product.

     

    btw, JP, if it's OK for me to be that familiar, I have the stones: I will not be a seller until $1 is an itty-bitty bit of dust in the rear view mirror of the guy behind me (since I refuse to put mirrors on my '96 Vulcan 800).

     

    Can I get a "Amen" from a few more Axionistas on that?

     

    Nodoubtaboutit.
    22 Sep 2012, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • Amen brother Edmond, I'm with you but well past $10 for me before I cut some loose. 8-)
    22 Sep 2012, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund: excellent thoughts. Maybe *part* of their front page could steal a part of yours: "What problem are you trying to solve and here's the bottom line solution" motif: "Problems and Solutions" as a tabbed drop-down menu.

     

    Other parts could have things geared towards the "ease of use" aspects that their anticipated audience might appreciate when just looking for general or specific information.

     

    That "Problems and Solutions" tab could have a little "glitz" around it to draw attention.

     

    The question, for me: is their potential customer base similar in attitude to your "customer base"? I.e. are potential visitors initially disinterested, interested and trying to solve a specific problem, or just doing a little browsing to find information? Probably a mix, in which case the "Problems and Solutions" tab couldn't detract and would likely help.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • I found Vani's comments on sales to Al Marshall encouraging. One thing you have to do as a VP of Sales is avoid over-selling "success will happen by X date." You cry wolf to many times with no wolf in sight and nobody will listen to you anymore. We'll see how his predictions turn out. It's much better to say you are seeing a lot more wolf sh*t lately IMHO.

     

    I found the discussion on the website interesting. I ran a small manufacturing company whose sales were almost totally web driven ecommerce sales. We were constantly upgrading the website and adding more features that made buying easier for the customer. The ultimate version of buying ease is Amazon's "Buy with one click" feature.

     

    No matter how glitzy the website I don't think it would help the selling process as far as the PbC is concerned. As long as selling the PbC remains a highly technical process involving new systems design or redesign of existing systems one on one technical selling will remain the most important venue.

     

    Glitz might help generate investor enthusiasm but the stock's performance would not support the website glitz IMHO - and I don't think the site could push up the price in any meaningful way. I think the site does the job for the moment. It could be better - sure - but website design and upgrades aren't cheap and Axion hasn't got a ton of money. I spent barrels of money in relationship to our total resources on constant website redesigns and upgrades which was critical to our sales channel. The web is not a sales channel for Axion, hence good enough will do *for now* in my opinion.
    22 Sep 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • I did not mean to call for any glitz.

     

    There are many reasons to like the Axion PbC story. A number of products have been built around it that could attract investors from several angles.

     

    They want to know more, so they go to the website and right there in small print on the home page they read find out that it's all about some twist on lead batteries. There is little sense of excitement. There is little sense of the potential.

     

    Now I think a few of the more curious investors could get past that but you've already lost many. Can we afford to lose potential investors before they've even got the story?

     

    But let's say those few, those merry few, go to the technology overview page to get some details. Hmmm, if that isn't the ugliest damn battery I ever saw. Pasty white box. Oh, and are those chemical formulas. Are you kidding me?

     

    All the merriment just got sucked out of the few. Yes, we need battery-buyers, but Axionistas also really need a bunch more investors. Investors increase the stock price, decrease the dilution device, breed more investors, etc. We all know all that.

     

    Frankly, I don't do glitz. I was thinking more along the lines of presenting a sense of power, inspiration, and excitement that the product and platform deserve.

     

    The company has great bait, but it is poorly presented, so the fish, perch and marlin both, swim on by.
    22 Sep 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Can't disagree with you Edmund. It can certainly be improved a ton. They probably just do not have a decent web designer and web master within their staff at the moment. In my company's case I was a full-time web designer and web master and I frequently contracted consulting firms for specialized work.

     

    They just may not have the personnel and financial resources available to significantly upgrade the site they have. Sure, you can upload a better photo, but you start barging around very much in a website without a complete knowledge of the existing code and functionality and you can screw up big. In my company's case it was a full-time incremental process.
    22 Sep 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • What would you expect the costs of a redesign would be?

     

    In my opinion, in this internet-only world, the costs of not making a good impression would justify a significant investment.

     

    Frankly, while they're at it, redesign the logo, too. What is that thing? A weird-colored psychedelic snowflake? Definitely does not convey a sense of Power, if you ask me. Is it a hand-me-down?
    22 Sep 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Pretty tepid numbers:

     

    http://nyti.ms/PUk3bK
    22 Sep 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • And this:

     

    http://nyti.ms/Sck1eX

     

    Looks like EV's are a dream not coming true.

     

    If BMW inks an SS deal with Axion, we will be laughing.
    22 Sep 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • To do a decent "minor" redesign about 35-50K. To improve the existing content, navigation, and everything else 75-100K. To do a bang up job 150-200K. Don't forget when you change a website logo you have all the other materials that use logos from business cards to signage to update.

     

    While PbC isn't a great product name it does steer clear of any product or technology baggage "Green" hasn't done well either as a government investment or stock market darling. They are to close to closing deals with the terminology they have now. Changing it would just create confusion in my view.

     

    They need to get sales traction right now and every penny has to be devoted to Job 1 - sales. The rest will follow logically. Just MHO. Don't get me wrong. I am a huge fan of the web and its power. I just I think the timing is wrong for them to do anything major and anything minor isn't going to make a difference.

     

    The navigation sucks. Drop down menus would be a great change versus the tedious static links they have now. More dramatic backgrounds, colors and better content layout would help. More "people" presence would help. Better technology presentation. Just a a few of the things I would do. Frankly, it needs an almost total overhaul and the code in place looks pretty simple. The trouble with simple code is it takes a lot more work to improve it. Zillion static links. Better to redesign the whole damn thing. I have to agree with you Edmund, the site is just "lifeless." It isn't going to arouse interest. However, it does provide good due diligence information in an organized fashion for investors. On that score it does a half decent job.
    22 Sep 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the numbers, bangwhiz. I also went online and was able to get some ballpark numbers. Pretty much over $100,000 was Forbes 500 country. I saw plenty of numbers for full design including multimedia, etc. None of them exceeded $50,000 and values of 10-35K were common. I'm sure they don't want to scare away clients up front so the numbers might inflate.

     

    Embedded in the page coding is the name of the individual responsible for site maintenance, one Joe Dunlow of b2i Technologies (whose web site is also less than inspiring - not to mention it doesn't load correctly and so their logo is split on every page).

     

    I wonder if Axion Power is paying for said "maintenance" on a monthly basis or on a fee-for-service basis.

     

    I do not mean to draw resources from sales, but to enhance them. The case could be made that the website should and could be one of the most prolific sales generators on its own and should act as an assistant to the sales team, while doing double duty attracting investors.

     

    I think it would be a very worthwhile investment. The more I think about it, the more convinced I become that the project should be undertaken immediately.
    22 Sep 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Bear in mind Edmund those website design numbers do not include developing the content. That has to come from Axion. You can't just hand a stack of literature and technical papers to a web design firm and expect them to do a decent job of selling the PbC. They won't have a clue what is or is not important. They are going to require direction from Axion management and technical personnel and a lot of it.

     

    One time I hired a web design firm to do a completely new design of our site however they would like to do it. They didn't do a good job. In fact they said they had a lot of trouble because no one had ever hired them to just design a site before without client input -although they could clearly see the exiting live site.

     

    They didn't know what to do because no one was telling them what to do. The site logo they designed looked like something going down a drain. It was a little similar to Axion's logo because our company had the word "Infinity" in the company name and they wanted a logo that represented "infinity". It was a miserable logo design.

     

    What we were trying to do was similar to asking another artist to paint Mona Lisa however he wanted to using the same model. We wanted ideas for improvement from their effort. It wasn't a complete waste as they came up with some things we adopted - but not much.

     

    They were also clueless on content and the selling process - other than the mechanics. They couldn't get into the prospect's head, anticipate what they would be thinking as they navigated the site, and provide logical answers to the questions that would be in the prospect's head at the appropriate time and place within the site.
    22 Sep 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Did anybody order or have access to this SAE paper that is getting published Monday?

     

    http://bit.ly/NhFtSW
    22 Sep 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, no but I am glad you are on top of this. Thanks!
    22 Sep 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • nice find!
    22 Sep 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Good find Stephan,
    I wonder if our friend Tim Enright saw the paper issued on the Long Haul tractor LPG conversion kit.

     

    http://bit.ly/Q72iGv

     

    Lower fuel cost per unit of energy. The abstract states that it can save up to $300 per 1000 Kilometers.

     

    25 Sep 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Whats a Kilometer? <smile> will have a peek...
    25 Sep 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • "There is almost no particulate matter with LPG."

     

    If we did not have to deal with particulate matter via Exhaust Gas Recirulation (EGR) and Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) the modern electronic engine could reach double digits pulling a modest load. The two biggest factors in a diesel engine performance is intake and exhaust and the more open they are the better. EGR circulates hot (expanded) and dirty air/gas back into the intake and DPF restricts the exhaust with its huge filtration system that requires additional diesel just to burn away the ash.

     

    This appears to be a pretty simple conversion for non EGR and DPF systems but the modern engine use a smattering of sensors and computer logic to control EGR and DPF and I suspect all this logic would have to be redone or stub routines in place to ignore the sensor logic. This is only bad news for those of us (me) that have EGR and DPF which I believe to be a minority.

     

    They will also need to add a spark plug and I am real curious how they did this. I would have tried to build it into the injector so that the current injector orifice is all that is needed and the head would not need to be replaced.

     

    Anyway, this is all well beyond me but I would take that $.48 per mile savings straight to the bank as pure profit (once ROI was meet). I want one...
    25 Sep 2012, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund> "The case could be made that the website should and could be one of the most prolific sales generators on its own".

     

    My past website spent 12-17K per month on web advertising, with 12K the average. We also spent months on search engine positioning so we held the first 1-5 listings in Google's search engine results for our products. For a website to drive sales it has to have traffic driven into the appropriate product pages.

     

    If someone wants a pink giraffe you have to drive them into a pink giraffe webpage with all the info they need to hit the "add to cart" button. Then there will be other questions like warranty and shipping questions etc and you need quick links to those questions. It has to be designed from beginning to end to support a selling process. It takes a highly professional and expensive effort to drive traffic into a website and close sales leads.

     

    Later it might make sense. I just don't believe it does now. As long as shaking hands, eye to eye and picking up the telephone is the major source of sales it just doesn't make sense to try and make the existing site into a worthy sales channel. It does make sense to pretty it up and make it more attractive - but even that can get mildly expensive, distract staff and management time, and lead to little in results unless something drives significant traffic into the site.

     

    You've also got to have a web analytics package to look at where traffic is coming from and how they enter and navigate the site and what page they leave on. Interpreting the analytics traffic is a constant chore and takes a professional to do it.

     

    When Google announced its free analytics software we hired a Google Analytics Partner and a specialized programming company to help me incorporate it into our site immediately. Back then it was all new and very hard to implement on a custom site like ours. It was the most difficult web upgrade I ever undertook and I had two dynamite support firms. I was also considered a search engine positioning expert at the time.

     

    If Axion isn't prepared to spend both a substantial amount of development money and absorb the continuing maintence and incremental upgrade expense required to make it a "living breathing" site it will all be a waste. The same for search engine positioning and web advertising - a separate expense and the search engine positioning needs to be a key component of the website design - not an afterthought.

     

    Think dollars. Think a hell of a lot of dollars. 35K worth of beautification might please the site owner, but it isn't going to change a thing without all the rest of the ingredients.

     

    Ironically, we initially designed the website to support an extensive direct mail campaign. I believed the only way to make the site credible (and the business behind it) was to design a full up ecommerce site. We didn't care at the time if it sold a thing or not. Later I spent months upgrading the site with a search engine positioning redesign and the site traffic (and sales) just exploded.
    22 Sep 2012, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • I went to a few sites just generally in the sector:

     

    http://bit.ly/ABkP9a Market Cap 57M, really nice dynamic website. One of the best.
    http://bit.ly/RL0h8h, 27M, serviceable website for a bunch of products, not very appealing visually and lacking in style.
    http://bit.ly/QvIq0f, 16M, simple, similar to Axion, just lead acid batteries
    http://bit.ly/RL0eJL, 4.5M, quite nice, clean and well put together with scrolling images of the story and products (lithium/cobalt cathode materials)
    http://bit.ly/QvIq0i, 32M, very nice, dynamic and visually pleasing site with depth of information
    http://bit.ly/RL0eJR, 0.5M, one of my favorites, slick, full-featured, social site links, very up-to-date feel, lots and lots of information - hey, looking for an investment opportunity? (specialty batteries, mostly miniature, I think, and an RFID unit)
    http://bit.ly/QvIoFD, 9M, battery charging systems, simple site, little depth, static, dull
    http://www.energizer.com, 4.8B, multiple bunny sitings, social site links, one pretty cool pull-down tab labelled "What are you looking for", kind of too busy for me overall.
    http://bit.ly/RL0h8n, 1.7B, really poorly done in my opinion. not appealing at all. Worst site I saw.
    http://www.gaia-akku.com, Lithium Technology Corp (German), 14M, nice site, looks modern, good tabs, very cool embedded video.
    http://www.zbbenergy.com, 26M, nice site, visually pleasing, could have better navigation, but there's a lot of information, images, videos, all color coordinated, a bit too bright after awhile.

     

    OK, so that's enough of that. I finished by going back to the Axion Power site and I actually found it relaxing and welcoming to my eyes. I don't think the font is quite right and there's a lot of dense writing. Nothing really pops, except maybe the odd "out-of-Africa" light show at the top of every page. I'll give it a C+.

     

    ACK, It turned a bunch of the links, which were mostly recognizable names,into inscrutable shorthand. Oh well.
    23 Sep 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Damn good job Edmund evaluating those sites. I'll go look at them myself tomorrow. I had a major investor in my company look at our site and he said it needed animation on the home page. We had one very brief bit of animation in a small section on the home page that emphasized how fast people could order. It had a couple of brief lightening flashes and text animation and that was it. About 15 seconds of animation well below the site header and menu bar.

     

    I made the investor go to Amazon's home page. I said "do you see anything moving?" Nope he said. He dropped the complaint about lack of animation right there. It is very tiring on the eyes.
    23 Sep 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • I'm positively amazed about all this discussion about the quality of the Axion website.

     

    The website clearly demonstrates the corporate message, as is.

     

    Yes, Axion has dozens of proposals out. But does anyone really think that BMW or Norfolk or some Asian automaker, or any of the dozens of other proposals out there, who they are...is really going to care about how tricked up the Axion website is?

     

    Does anyone think that a better designed website will attract more retail or investing house(s) investors?

     

    Honestly...this conversation reminds me of ESPN's, "Come on, Man."

     

    The whole discussion of Axion updating, or "modernizing" their website I find a huge waste of time and money...on Axion's part, which, by the way, is our money spent.

     

    It's fine as is. Us stockholders are selling batteries, not glitz. Batteries ain't sexy.

     

    Sure, update it after we get some endorsement, some orders. Not before.
    23 Sep 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • Jon's original question was about PR. Was easy to foresee the discussion quickly focusing on the website, as it's simple to understand and tangible. But it's not at all a current meaningful problem, of course, as I and others have written. The other PR improvement suggestions, though, are good and are worth discussing.
    23 Sep 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • While I have great respect for Bang and where he comes from on this, I have to agree with Maya. I usually remain silent on SA I have to briefly chime in on this, as someone who has been in search engine optimization, search engine marketing, etc. for a decade now.

     

    While the Axion Power website isn't anything special and comes off almost as a template, it does what it's intended to do. I can find the information I want on it. Like Bang points out, not the best, but I can still find my way around, which is more than I can say for some websites. :)

     

    I started off years ago, working for others, and myself driving leads and selling goods online. Very end user/at home customer oriented.

     

    These days, I've migrated towards B2B. It's mainly energy sector/oil related but are much smaller companies then anything Bang has likely been associated with. They deal with commercial/industrial goods and processes developed specifically by each company.

     

    I usually come in after the fact to get a website ranking, research keywords, get a little exposure for it, write more content, flesh it out, monitor traffic, find new niches, etc.

     

    One of the websites was made in Godaddy's Website Tonight editor. Yeah, it's a cookie cutter template and nothing at all to write home about on a design level, but the company was a small upstart with a limited budget, so we worked out a deal that was favorable to both sides. Anyway, we've had some pretty major commercial chains contact us via that website for product samples....

     

    With what I've been dealing with, I am promoting products in very specific sectors to very specific clients. There is really only one line of products that, as of now, I don't do any promotion of at all that almost falls in line with what the PbC is because the customer has to do testing on their end to determine how to best utilize it or make requests on our end to modify it.

     

    Axion is even more specific with attracting clients than those guys, however. Generally speaking, I really think that companies that are going to take the PbC seriously and want to use it will have no problems finding them in the fullness of time.

     

    Just my 2 cents :)
    23 Sep 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • "Does anyone think that a better designed website will attract more retail or investing house(s) investors?"

     

    Come on, man, Seriously? There's no question about it. The website is the first place prospectors go looking when they start their due diligence. How does the company present itself?

     

    Some folks don't "get" the internet or understand its' power. But companies that don't are non-competitive in today's market.

     

    Sexy Batteries: http://bit.ly/RMpYVZ
    Sexy EXIDE batteries:
    http://bit.ly/OSw5BQ
    23 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • >Mr Investor ... Now I've no idea how to go about this but I'm sure there is a way. For real PR to the target audience, I'd suggest developing a demonstration for the trade show tour showing the PbC advantages of ZERO sulfation, quick charge, total discharge cycling, high amp DCA, capacitance response time & whatever else can be thought up. Whether this is live demo or video ... I don't know. I am sure this is not easy & may not be cheap to accomplish but it would introduce the battery to a smaller, wider application base. This could be a great way to piss off the large OEMs now looking at the PbC so there is no way for someone like me to know what's possible but whatever it takes to make sales is fine with me.

     

    And there is my two cents.
    23 Sep 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Dastar> I nominate you and any extra help (graphics and programming if necessary) to upgrade Axion's website someday in the future. Like you I have lived in the website development world for over 10 years. That's the trouble. I shot off my mouth to much discussing it with Edmund, but I couldn't help it. I know to much about it and when someone thinks it is simple I can't shut up. Sorry about that folks.

     

    I think Axiopn's primary sales tool was in place long before the web. It is called a telephone and a great salesman. The best PR tools they have are technical presentations at conferences attended by the people they really need to hear their message. The rest is fluff.
    23 Sep 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Great idea DRich. Packaged properly (in a video for instance) it would be a great PR and sales tool and a natural for the website. I also don't think it would cost that much to accomplish IMHO.
    23 Sep 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Bang, as JP would say, I'd still "Carry around your briefcase" for a year to learn from you!
    23 Sep 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • >bangwhiz ... Yeah, it might be good for a web site. My problem with that is that the company I hang at, and ones like it I know of, spend very little time doing any web based work/shopping for batteries. We are aware of the batteries available for use. The customer, the ones that dream up the battery applications we turn into hardware, do spend time going to trade shows and come to us with apps & ideas for battery technology implementation they see there. Virtually none of them know Axion & the PbC even exist and by availability to them ... it doesn't.

     

    We, the shop, have thought up several applications, relative to us, that the PbC might be superior for. There is no demand from the customers and no incentive to build them. At best, our customer base couldn't buy more than a few thousand a year. As a limited availability, proprietary item the uncertainty of supply makes development uneconomic.
    23 Sep 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/RMGu8v

     

    http://www.intc.com

     

    http://bit.ly/RMGu8A

     

    some other examples. i want the info i am looking for on the page. that's it. i don't think any of these sites is next level. compare these sites with sales sites and contrast with investor portion.

     

    a product designed for product manufacturers is not going to have an elaborate sales design.
    23 Sep 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • DRich> The great thing about your idea is it could be used in any environment to capsule the PbC's attributes. It simply would be a natural to plug it into the website.
    23 Sep 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • In my web site development days we worked to keep the home page "fresh" or rather we worked at providing a standard set of tools for the office staff to keep the home page fresh. We wanted the visitors to see movement or progress each time they came to visit. The amount of progress varies greatly between clients but here is what I would suggest for the Axion web site.

     

    Take the welcome section on the main page and put it behind the about tab as that is a huge waste of dead real estate. Create a data driven "whats happening" grid in its place showing all the events that have happened or that are about to happen. These are not formal news events but a notice that Enders will be speaking at some conference or that a white paper will be published on a given date. It could also be relevant industry events that may or may not directly involve Axion. Just a 1-2 liner with a link in a database that any office personnel could add without editing the home page itself - simple stuff.

     

    Then I might add a blog tab that links to SA and include a disclaimer that it was not monitored by Axion. Unless of course it was and then wouldn't that be something...

     

    My 2.5 cents...
    23 Sep 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • "Generally speaking, I really think that companies that are going to take the PbC seriously and want to use it will have no problems finding them in the fullness of time. "

     

    We have had a bit of that "fullness of time" already. Enough is enough.
    23 Sep 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • DRich---Interesting ideas. Thanks.
    23 Sep 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • bang---couldn't agree more with your 2nd paragraph. Initial human contact is how they'll accomplish their other main search, too: finding a strategic investor. Would love to be a fly on the wall for those meetings.
    23 Sep 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Another great article over on EconIntersect regarding EVs, "Electric Vehicles Not Competitive Even With Government Subsidies."

     

    http://bit.ly/PxOhD8

     

    The word is spreading....
    22 Sep 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Maya

     

    Do you think the CBO communicates with the DOE?...hello right hand, please meet left hand...
    23 Sep 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mag: That'd be like a prickly pear cactus in Arizonia communicating with a hemlock tree in New York.
    23 Sep 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry if posted already.

     

    For me this is advantageous for ALAB. Optimizing the energy and power densities in e-motive apps plays into strengths of electrostatic devices.

     

    "Eaton to Develop Predictive Battery Management Tech for Hybrid Vehicles"

     

    http://bit.ly/NKk6dv
    23 Sep 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • Older Hyundai article SS (not Special Sits).

     

    "The U.S. government has said it will allow auto makers to document real-world savings with stop/start to earn CAFE credits from 2017-2025, Krafcik says, but adds Hyundai engineers are aiming for better than a 1-mpg city-driving improvement."

     

    http://bit.ly/RMvKqL
    23 Sep 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: so that reduces the odds that Hyundai is the Asian manufacturer that we've been speculating about.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Sep 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Either that or the PbC performance metrics from BMW showed them that getting more than 1-mpg in city driving was a slam dunk. All things being equal, I'd prefer Toyota as Axion's mystery customer in Asia.
    23 Sep 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, That's one way to look at it.

     

    The other way, and John beat me to it, is that all SS systems are not the same. As John suggests maybe the added charge acceptance of PbC and other variables associated with how the technology would be integrated make it more palatable than AGM combination SLI/SS.

     

    Also (Read my later post) maybe the Koreans like the Japanese are not willing to push a poor system on their customers as they don't have the same culture or regulatory incentives.

     

    We do know that Hyundai has sent vehicles to the states with SS systems. Not sure if they finally launched them as initial reviews claimed the restart was rough so they delayed the launch. So they are interested they just haven't jumped in with both feet like manufacturers have in Europe. Based on my opinion of how well many of the Europeans have executed I can see why they are hesitant.
    23 Sep 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Hard to imagine Toyota being the one.
    With 15 hybrids being introduced in 3 years I have a difficult time seeing them use the PbC. But they are a smart company. Smart enough to find another unique battery design.
    Here is the press release on their new plans
    http://bit.ly/QSAfLP

     

    Since I'm 100 comments behind please forgive me if this has already been posted.
    25 Sep 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist, the Ultrabattery was deemed a suitable replacement for the Prius. Perhaps they have carbon on their mind. Just another reason why I think a win for the UB is a win for the PbC...
    25 Sep 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • "the Ultrabattery was deemed a suitable replacement for the Prius."

     

    Tim, did I miss this? Do you have a link?
    25 Sep 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, 4th program down on the ALABC achievements page. Testing is ongoing.

     

    http://bit.ly/S3VYiX
    25 Sep 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, iindelco - but I don't see the reference to the Prius ....

     

    "Following the successful tests, the group retrofitted a 2010 Honda Civic HEV with a 178V pack of UltraBatteries for on-road performance evaluation."
    25 Sep 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, My Bad about the model mix up (and a big one at that). There have been several links posted in these concentrators on this project.
    25 Sep 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, I don't remember them retrofitting a Prius but in my mind this is a Prius class vehicle which I think was the intent of the comment

     

    (Prius class being the original HEV design and not one of the new derivatives)

     

    PS If you're worried about Toyota vs Honda meaning some sort of signal as to some alignment between East Penn and one of the manufacturers I don't think they were heavily involved.
    25 Sep 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Tim and iindelco ... I remembered the Honda Civic (actually I thought it was an Insight), but I hadn't seen any mention about UB, Toyota and the Prius ...

     

    I agree, since it says retrofitted, it appears to be a used vehicle that may not have any connection to Honda.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • NY Times article on power use by data centers. Some discussion of Viridity in its power auditing role. It does seem like the proposed FERC rules are a natural for data centers.

     

    http://nyti.ms/Q9qdZp
    23 Sep 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • apm

     

    great link...every time you turn around another AXPW opportunity...now if only (1) can hatch!
    23 Sep 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • dang apm,
    i just came here myself to share the same article :)

     

    i agree this is another potential AXPW opportunity. RoseWater needs to alter their oil rigs marketing materials to send out to data centers ;p
    24 Sep 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • And the PowerCube is perfect for any data center. It can pay for itself while waiting for the big outage.
    25 Sep 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • How yet another Japanese minor is handling energy harvesting.

     

    Suzuki debuts 2 fuel-saving technologies

     

    http://bit.ly/R9Jv0c

     

    I'm not seeing the Japanese running toward AGM as a solution for energy harvesting in vehicles like the Europeans, supporting more and more what's been discussed on this board. The battery life and efficiency of AGM does not support SS long enough and the European system is only a "feel good" solution for the regulators. I'm leaning further this way as I find more information.

     

    The other thing that supports this along with the articles are the experiences of a few of the posters on this board that have been kind enough to share with us their personal experiences with the technology. All of them (If I recall correctly) seem to support the data we've reviewed regarding the poor life and charge acceptance of AGM used as the combination SLA/SS battery. I just can't imagine why automakers like BMW are putting these in higher end vehicles for this purpose. I just don't see people that are more affluent looking forward to contacting road side assistance or visiting "Mr. Good Wrench" in an effort to save the environment or save a few dollars. And given what BMW is charging for a new battery with installation to teach the BMS that it's a new battery I'd personally be POed if I knew it was just to warm the hearts of some regulators.
    23 Sep 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not going to dig too deep for fear of uncovering private information but I just gotta believe this is the picture of an Axionista captured during trading hours. :))

     

    http://bit.ly/VtsuyW
    23 Sep 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • If a Leaf fails in the forest does it make a sound.....

     

    Nissan responds to the perceived Leaf battery problems. Kicking the ole hornets nest! :(

     

    Nissan says greater than average battery capacity loss due to mileage and temperature

     

    http://bit.ly/Ra5kwD
    23 Sep 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • I love gee whiz statistics and even Nissan can't avoid the temptation.

     

    "Globally, there are more than 38,000 Nissan LEAFs on the road that have travelled more than 100 million zero-emission miles, ..."

     

    By my calculator that works out to an average 2,632 emission free miles per car. An amazing accomplishment in any hopium addict's book.
    23 Sep 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • I love gee whiz stats as well but there is no need to use them here. Stats 101 tells you that this is the most damning statement I can imagine.

     

    "In Arizona, we have approximately 450 LEAFs on the road. Based on actual vehicle data, we project the average vehicle in that market to have battery capacity of 76 percent after five years—or a few percentage points lower than the global estimate."

     

    In all my time functioning in the more recent automotive supply base NOBODY would ever try to defend this kind of performance at the mean within the targeted sales markets for a mass market vehicle. Six sigma my butt.This is indefensible.

     

    We'll see what the press does with this and more importantly both groups in the sales equation. If I was a Southern Leaf dealership I'd be cancelling orders and getting rid of my Leaf stock quick.

     

    PS. I also took interest in the comments section. Our friend Davemart just had a come to Jesus moment. I think he's in shock and rightly so. I would guess he's a true vehicle electrification fan and he's not going to try to defend this BS. But I'll let his comments stand on their own.
    23 Sep 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • It's a cynical view, but I've always viewed the early adopters as the automotive equivalent of Phase II drug test subjects. They're basically glorified lab rats because the automakers won't know enough about battery life and performance until they have a large fleet on the road in different climates for several years. People are just way more creative than computers and engineers when it comes to abusing their stuff. My best guess is that problem reports will become commonplace unless the plug-in vehicle market dies more quickly than I expect it to.
    23 Sep 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • So, where are Nissan's EV world domination plans now? Wasn't long ago that they said they were committing vast sums to get a lot of EVs to mkt ASAP. Something like $15bil and 1.5mil cars? I'd have to google it to get the history facts right, but I remember Ghosn talk'n BIG, almost bet-the-company-type numbers. And they didn't even get the thermal mgmt system right in their first car. And, um, even if they did, the mkt hasn't developed worth squat. Something about the batteries being way too expensive still or some other minor detail. Duuuuh!
    23 Sep 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I, Well you've been following this for some time.

     

    I happen to think Mr. Carlos Ghosn is a person of get personal strengths. I would put him as a top ten contributor at a CEO level in automotive over the last 10+ years.

     

    That being said, I think he reached a little too far. I'm interested to see what he is going to do with the new plant that is heavily US funded which was supposed to build tons of Leafs (Leaves?). It was supposed to come on line for some time now. My bet is that it's will not be written off until after the upcoming US elections. I'd also guess he's been looking to adapt it for some time. He's not an idiot for sure.

     

    PS Again, You're absolutely right. He slammed something far more sensitive than his hand in the door. Pride cometh before a what? :(
    23 Sep 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Actually the US plant wasn't supposed to come online till the end of this year I believe. So if it opens up around Christmas it will be right on time ;)
    As for the battery issues Nissan is talking about an improved pack for 2013. It could be fitted to the older models, so Nissan does have a way to make things right if they choose to. I think they finally realize they have blown this from a PR perspective and are looking to fix it. They now have a company rep engaging with people on the mynissanleaf forum.
    24 Sep 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks JRP3. Looks like you are correct with original timing.

     

    http://bit.ly/SgzcnA

     

    We'll see how they handle the current battery issue. BTW, Where did you see the info. that the next gen battery will package in the current Leaf. That's good news IMO.
    24 Sep 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • That's going to be one hefty recall bill for Nissan if it comes to that.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Recalls are for safety related items. Generally things like this will be handled on a case by case basis as "Customer Satisfaction Campaigns". Unless there are hungry lawyers and those are always plentiful in the US.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    Whatever you want to call it, if they have to start replacing the batteries on a lot of Leafs it is going to cut big time into their profits. Though it may be less than the negative PR is already costing them.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Agreed.

     

    This is a very sensitive time for them and it could go either way depending on how they handle it. I hope for their sake they lean toward caution in managing perceptions.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • "BTW, Where did you see the info. that the next gen battery will package in the current Leaf."

     

    That was just engineering speculation on my part, I said it "could" be fitted to an older LEAF. There is no reason an improved chemistry can't be installed in an older LEAF.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3, Thanks. Would be a best case scenario for sure. Plus it would take care of their need for being able to supply replacement batteries years out for the Gen 1 Leaf if the next gen pack packages. Probably would require some software BMS updates but that's OK.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • To some extent I agree with you on some of the risks associated with the battery technology (such as material aging ) but as has been discussed on the board the test regiments that the automakers put things like batteries through in the lab should be far more challenging to the battery than what is seen in the field. And with new risky technology they shouldn't be designing things so that people are already seeing 5 year promised performance degradation in 2 years in a primary market. Texas and California are primary markets for this technology.

     

    And I can assure you Nissan is still doing long term testing on some of their far greater than 2 year old Leaf batteries. I would suggest some new career paths have occurred and more than a few pairs of underwear have been soiled.

     

    The creativity point I understand far too well. I'll sign up to implement a fully automated assembly process over manual assembly any day of the week. I think there was an American TV show on that years ago "People do the darndest things". And I wasn't even working with an audience of 1+ carbon units for each assembly! People in hospital emergency rooms have to have some real stories.
    23 Sep 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • "People in hospital emergency rooms have to have some real stories."

     

    :-) And peace/police officers, Boy/Girl Scout leaders, national park service personnel, etc.
    23 Sep 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, No doubt.

     

    I still remember my first drive from Charles De Gaulle airport into Paris at the start of my journey. Nobody warned me about the guys on motorcycles speeding between car lanes in slow traffic. All I thought to myself when the first one zipped by at unbelievable speed was "Thank God I didn't shift over to see how far ahead the slowdown was as I might often do in the States. Then more and more zing zing zing ....................

     

    Once again. "Thank God."
    23 Sep 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • SA article on micro stock fraud, includes instance of how "criminals are beginning to wise up to how search engine algorithms work" to thwart due diligence.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Another reason why we should be grateful for the Concentrator and the camaraderie of its always questioning commentators, snarkiness & bad puns included.

     

    23 Sep 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook, Thanks for that. For every law there are any number of people figuring out ways around them. And unfortunately it is not something that is any less prevalent in our leadership.

     

    There is little doubt how advantageous a group like this can be for people that share some level of common interest.
    23 Sep 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • As Mr. Petersen often says, "Its what you think you know, that gets you in trouble". Thought my understanding of accounting was pretty good. But this article and pieces like Mr. JP's review of the accounting errors Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley used in their TESLA model show that understanding to be analytically weak at best. After 20 years of investing, maybe its time for some night classes in equities accounting? Appreciate both your comment and return to these pages.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Willie Sutton used to rob banks because that's where the money was in his day. In our day, many criminals see equity investors as easy targets. That's why it's critically important to dig deep and ask the hard questions. It's also a good idea to be very skeptical of reverse merger companies until they've been around for a few years.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco, today would have been a little on the boring side without you. Thanks for keeping the ball rolling...
    23 Sep 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, See on a slow day the boring can shine! :)

     

    We technical types on average are noted for taking the lime light off of rock stars!
    23 Sep 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • And then there are technical rock stars :) again, good to have you back...
    23 Sep 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Good Morning.

     

    I share this article:
    http://yhoo.it/QyMKf9

     

    ... Toyota Motor Corp has scrapped plans for widespread sales of a new all-electric minicar, saying it had misread the market and the ability of still-emerging battery technology to meet consumer demands.

     

    Note: It seems that Toyota officials have read the articles of John Petersen very well.

     

    Have a nice week. Mr JP. exitos in Paris!!
    24 Sep 2012, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Wow! Thanks Carlos and JP. Do I dare go over to brand X to read how well this has been received by the EVgelicals?
    24 Sep 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • Toyota just announced the cancellation of it planned launch of a new all-electric minicar, the eQ, and clarified that it only plans to sell 2,600 RAV4 EVs over the next three years. That's not 2,600 a year. It's 2,600 in total. Talk about a kick in the teslacles.
    24 Sep 2012, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the link Carlos.

     

    Since Toyota was partnering with Tesla on some of these vehicles, its more bad news for Tesla.

     

    It sounds like Toyota is backing into the idea of the micro-hybrid... maybe PbC?!
    24 Sep 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Toyota's vice chairman, and the engineer who oversees vehicle development, told reporters on Monday. "The current capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet society's needs, whether it be the distance the cars can run, or the costs, or how long it takes to charge," said, Uchiyamada, who spearheaded Toyota's development of the Prius hybrid in the 1990s.

     

    The automaker planned to sell between 35,000 and 40,000 Prius plug-in hybrids in 2012 in Japan. So far it has sold only 8,400, or about 20 percent of its target.
    24 Sep 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • My read is that Toyota does not see any pure e vehicle battery technology on the horizon that can meet customer needs/ expectations. So they mostly withdraw from that market while focusing on something that does work, hybrid start/stop technology, hopefully using a PbC.
    24 Sep 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Best of luck this week, John. This latest announcement from Toyota should further bolster your conclusions at the very least.

     

    I'm sure all good Axionistas will be tucked safely into their beds early every night with their eyes shut tight to hurry the approach of morning and news from Paris.

     

    Vivan los Axionistas!

     

    D
    24 Sep 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • jveal, The other side of the coin is that T still need to meet mandates like the ones in CA which they will do with Tesla as their contract supplier.

     

    Basically T is saying the tech. is not ready for more broad market roll out. Thus they will stay focused on R&D and let contract suppliers fill the niche requirements. Not worth their time on the manufacturing end yet. T is a sharp company. Probably the best in the sector. But Hyundai is coming on strong.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • It also allows them to stand apart from most of the other automakers and say "this just doesn't work right now, so we aren't going to waste good money chasing it. Instead we are going to give consumers real options on technologies that Toyota has proven works." Lets then trumpet about being ahead of everyone in the past, and makes then not have to worry about catching up to the other EVs out there by just pointing out that they don't make economic sense. Very shrewd.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Yep.

     

    But they will work on it and monitor how others are progressing. You can't stay in the game with your head in the sand. Just don't tool up before the market and the technology are ready. Now some small players might make a go of it but there's a big difference between selling Corollas and Bentley's. There will always be niche players to service, Well, the niche markets.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • One question:
    Which one will be? Toyota or Hunday. For me and after the article: TOYOTA today and Hunday-Kia Tomorrow.
    Carlos.
    24 Sep 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • There's room for everybody in the big tent. I want both.
    24 Sep 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • I wish Honda was in the mix as well.....
    24 Sep 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • dastar,

     

    Honda is beginning to stir in the hybrid market. Here's a link to an article nearly 2 weeks old. It doesn't give a lot of detail to describe it's hybrid. Is it a micro-hybrid or a true hybrid?

     

    http://yhoo.it/RbVPwW

     

    "We believe we have reached a point with hybrid technology ... where we can provide game-changing technology and products," Ito told Reuters on Wednesday.

     

    "We believe that rivals will definitely follow us."
    24 Sep 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the link, jveal.

     

    It doesn't surprise me Honda is already on the path. It'll just be interesting to see what direction they take and what tech. they utilize. While, as JP says, there will be no silver bullet for battery tech, I've always been a Honda fan and am eager to see what they come up with.
    24 Sep 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Honda has always tended more toward the mild-hybrid end of the spectrum, much like the Buick LaCrosse. It's more than a micro-hybrid, but less than full Prius class performance.
    24 Sep 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Have we forgotten other Asian OEMs Subaru, Kia (yes, part of Hyundai), Suzuki, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Honda, Chinese companies besides Hyundai and Toyota? What about Infiniti and Lexus - I know they have parents but.....
    24 Sep 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • I remember standing in a long line at a post office in Zimbabwe in the middle of summer back in 1995. The humidity was high enough that everyone's forehead had conventions of sweat droplets. The post office building had been intelligently constructed with walls and a roof that really kept the heat in to bake you, old fans mounted so high and far away that they only served to push around waves of hot sweat stenched air, and of course no air conditioning, useful windows, or any source of breeze. It seemed like the mail clerks took forever with each customer and were moving in the slow motion one expects from a cinematic explosion scene, but without the explosion or anything remotely exciting.

     

    Every once in a while, someone would leave the line, frustrated, and feeling like they would never arrive at the counter.

     

    But we waited, and our mail got out, eventually, and arrived where it was going too.

     

    That's my analogy for waiting on Axion's share price to start moving up for the day.
    24 Sep 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • It's a bit like waiting on Cambodian customs officials.
    24 Sep 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • "Chrysler Yanks Plug-In Hybrid Test Fleet Off Roads, Will Replace Batteries"

     

    http://hgm.me/SOfAro

     

    "Today, the company announced it's pulling them all off the roads--"withdrawing from service" is the specific phrase--due to damage sustained by three separate pickup trucks when their 12.9-kilowatt-hour battery packs overheated."
    24 Sep 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • And that, dear friends, is why you run a test fleet BEFORE you commit to public sales of a new vehicle.
    24 Sep 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • And yet BMW is years into testing the PbC technology and NO obvious progress, ie purchases.

     

    Maybe Axion should have partnered with GM. Sounds like there might have been sales.
    24 Sep 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • I'd rather have slow progress than a public failure, particularly in the early days. Snapping back from a delay is pretty easy. Snapping back from failure is much tougher.
    24 Sep 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Lithium Polymer can be tricky, I didn't know Electrovaya was being used in vehicles.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • bonjour from paris! hey all - I'm here to take in the conference so I'll be a 2nd set of eyes and ears - and hopefully have some good stuff to report. Having dinner with Enders Dickinson tomorrow as well so that's a good start.

     

    Brian Rishwain
    24 Sep 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • brishwain: Awesome that you made it! Looking forward to learning your savvy impressions.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Nice! Can't wait to hear what you learn.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Brian, I'm envious. :)

     

    Enjoy, I'm sure you'll learn a ton.

     

    PS If you're driving stay in your lane and make good use of your rear view mirrors!
    24 Sep 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Happy to have you there Brian...
    24 Sep 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Brishwain: That's great news. More eyes, more ears, more brains, more ... $ eventually?

     

    HardToLove
    24 Sep 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Brishwain,
    Great you're eyes and ears will be in the thick of it. I'd be interested to know when ED hopes exercising his employee stock options might be a viable proposition ($1.50 aren't they?)?
    (Ask him after he's picked up the tab)
    24 Sep 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Count me in as being jealous.
    Somehow it sounds better than New Castle, PA.
    25 Sep 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • brishwain:
    Engoy the conference & the dinner.
    Good Luck.
    Please keep us informed.
    Have a nice week.
    Carlos.

     

    Note: This is a telex!!!
    24 Sep 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Can't we just get a 10 million share day that blows out the rest of the people that want to sell?
    24 Sep 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stephan, Like Chinese water torture. Drip, drip, drip....................

     

    Or Toyota moving into electric cars, Slllloooowww and steady.

     

    Now if we could get the price down to about 5 cents we might just be able to match up enough buyers and sellers to clean things up quickly!
    24 Sep 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Buy:Sell 1:13.78

     

    I expect high short sales today. And the "Short % of sells" likely high too.

     

    Looks like the last of exit-b4-qtr-end crowd decided today was the day.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Sep 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • My plan to add a few more shares at $.275 lurks...

     

    $.25 next stop...
    24 Sep 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • If the seller wants a settled transaction by the end of the month, tomorrow is the last possible trading day.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • The price is holding up nicely with that volume.
    Obviously one larger buyer is not going to wait till 0.25 and lets the sellers dispose of the ugly duckling.
    24 Sep 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • FINRA short for today only 22,580 shares. Not including AH trades, if any. Looked like continued retail/small fund dumping to me as ATDF was the most active yet again on the ask side.
    24 Sep 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, Trip...it's kind of another chance round of...if I get'em I get'em -- at my price.

     

    And if I do get'em, I'll feel happy, akin in a strange way to how nature's deepwater oceanic bacteria did a better job cleaning up the BP Horizon disaster far better than BP did.

     

    Let forth these weak-handed shares gush.

     

    ####

     

    I'm very interested about volume the rest of this week.

     

    24 Sep 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mention here of Verify doing energy audit of a Data Center.

     

    Also Data Centers are willing to pay for response time:

     

    "In addition to generators, most large data centers contain banks of huge, spinning flywheels or thousands of lead-acid batteries — many of them similar to automobile batteries — to power the computers in case of a grid failure as brief as a few hundredths of a second, an interruption that could crash the servers."

     

    http://nyti.ms/RR1PxJ
    24 Sep 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Looking to see what T is using for their SS systems.

     

    Looks like they are launching the new Auris in Japan with SS.

     

    Toyota launches redesigned Auris compact hatchback in Japan

     

    http://bit.ly/OPVx0h

     

    Did find this on the prior generation.

     

    Auris 1.33 Start Stop Problem

     

    http://bit.ly/PSamwi

     

    Haven't reviewed the 2 additional links provided by Mooly in the form yet. If I find info. on the battery I'll post it. I did see that the new Auris has the battery being moved inside the cabin under the back seat. That tells me it's probably a LAB. I've not seen anyone put lithium ion in the cockpit yet so if anyone has I'd love a link.
    24 Sep 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • i just jumped ahead of the .2811 bid @ .284. MM with me with a .2874 lure looks like.
    24 Sep 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Just a historical note: back in the 1970s, I recall that taxis in NY city were being/going-to-be retrofitted to accomplish StopStart. Either for fuel efficiency or pollution, don't remember which.

     

    I never heard another thing about it after a year or so. Now I know exactly why!
    24 Sep 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Ugly Baby Pork Chops for just $10,000! Valid with all other govt. offers. Get yours now!

     

    http://wapo.st/VzdO1a
    24 Sep 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook, It gets worse.

     

    http://bit.ly/MipS4o
    24 Sep 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Actually it was a dealer incentive that started a few months ago.
    The incentive was that dealers had to triple their Volt sales for the summer. Incentive ended Sept 4.
    If a dealer succeeded they got the incentive in full. One volt short they got nothing.
    Over labor-day weekend you could have gotten $199 a month lease on a Volt for 2 years. Three years cost more per month.

     

    http://bit.ly/VEsaxh
    Best Sales Month Ever For Volt, Over 2,500 Sold In August. And Here Is Why

     

    http://bit.ly/TxruMW
    Eight Volts Available For $199/mo For 24 Month Lease

     

    Also the reason the Volt plant was closing for a month was likely to start the production of the Impala in the US. As the CAW (Canadian Auto Workers) have been expected to go on strike for months. This may have been the original reason for the Deal on Volt. (To get some breathing room.)

     

    As long as we are talking Volts
    Holden Volt Goes On Sale November 1st In Australia, $59,990 AUD ($62K US)

     

    http://bit.ly/VEsaxj
    25 Sep 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • New picture of the NS nein nein nein dated nein/22/12.

     

    http://bit.ly/OQddc9

     

    Has it moved since 7/25/12. Nein. :(

     

    Do I want to express my feelings. Nein.
    24 Sep 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • It'd be funny if they were secretly retrofitting another switcher to avoid the instant publicity that would be caused by even moving the 999...

     

    Maybe not THAT funny, but I really enjoyed the vision of crafty engineers slaving away in secret to install racks on a new prototype just to frustrate iindelco!
    24 Sep 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter, I can assure you I've looked at that possibility. Looked at some of the suppliers of the NS999 components like American Traction Systems as well to see if they announced additional orders from NS. Haven't found and clues yet that they are looking to push me over the edge intentionally.

     

    This does not fully rule out the possibility though! :)) Now stop laughing!
    24 Sep 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • FERC - Federal Energy Regulatory Commission : FERC Chairman Appoints Jennifer Whang as New Administrative Law Judge

     

    http://bit.ly/ShsIEV
    24 Sep 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, Link's not working.

     

    I suspect this works.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/OQgbO1
    24 Sep 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Correctamundo. Tip of the hat, iindelco.
    24 Sep 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • 9/24/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied from instablog (up sometime later).
    # Trds: 71, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 62000, Vol 505646, AvTrSz: 7122
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2923, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2824
    # Buys, Shares: 21 61471, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2864
    # Sells, Shares: 50 444175, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2819
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:7.23 (12.2% “buys”), DlyShts 22580 (4.5%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.08%

     

    I got shocked today. I was expecting that we'd see a big spike in short sales. Didn't happen. What's this mean? Lot's of intra-broker trade volumes? Lot's of inter-broker trade volumes? Could the market-maker have been that long that 444K could be sells and only ~22.6K shares would be shorted by the market-makers? We had another case recently where shorts were very low and I commented on it here. It doesn't explain today's stuff, but there's a possibility similar mechanisms are at play.

     

    If T+3 is working, I don't see how. Here's the rounded shorts for the last few days prior: 100K, 117K, 43K, 39K, 32K, 54K, and 36K. If all of those hit the market-makers and had already been covered they would still only be ~420K. Is it possible the market-makers would hold for this long just to ... sell at lower prices? VWAPs for the same periods were $0.2978, $0.2987, $0.2966, $0.2909, $0.2875, $0.2889, and $0.2913. Even today's VWAP buy price was only $0.2864! The VWAP sell price was only $0/2819.

     

    Obliviously (and there's a lot of truth in that I guess), there's something going on here that I have yet to account for. Well, we had some suspected Quercus sales in the recent past that needed certificate conversion before they could enter the market-maker portfolio. Allowing up to two weeks ... estimates include 25K 9/20, 31K 9/19, 44K 9/18, 25K 9/14. So there's 125K that might have hit and we can bank on it being bought at low prices by the market-makers.

     

    Has it all hit? I don't know. Was it even involved today? I don't know. Is it possible that Blackrock or Special Situations or Manatuck, all of which have shares in electronic form, are clearing portfolios of unloved equities before EOD? Seems very likely to me.

     

    Moving on ...

     

    I saw one trade that might have been Quercus, but it's only based on a approximation nearing 10% of volume to that point. I wouldn't wager on it. 32K went at 14:02:04 @ $0.285 and 10% of prior volume would've been ~37K.

     

    This short percentage move interrupted our return towards normal levels. If some of this was normal T+3 stuff, you can see from the above that short sales should continue to trend up to whatever “normal” is quite quickly as there's very little volume that should flow in from the last few days, including today - ~145K maximum. If we don't see short percentage move towards normal, we know something odd (or at least something not yet understood by me) is going on.

     

    I wonder if today's volume qualifies as a “spike” ending a trend? The last several days were 184K, 450K, 351K, 284K, and 241K. The daily averages I track (10, 25, 50 and 100-day) are at 322K, 345K, 372K, and 309K respectively. With today at ~505.6K, it's a good possibility. In that case, going forward we shouldn't see price sink much, if at all.

     

    Average trades sizes are remaining very consistent now – in the retail range, if I'm judging correctly. But I suspect that's because the sellers are masking their activities and/or the market-makers are having to break trades into chunks to get the trades done.

     

    Everything else is pretty much unchanged: the price continues to diverge up and away from the falling trend support, now at ~$0.267 and none of the traditional TA oscillators are showing bullish signs.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” has been omitted.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Sep 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • tomorrow selling should continue imo. then we move up.
    24 Sep 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • I just downloaded the SAE paper that Stephan Moroney found. It's pay-walled with a DRM agreement, so I'm afraid I'll have to paraphrase. Keep in mind although I'm a reformed medicinal chemist, I'm no battery guru.

     

    In overall format it was much like the August 2011 white paper. The bulk of the paper was descriptive, covering the advantages of PbC in no-idle systems, the failings of AGM batteries in that setting and the testing protocols used.

     

    There was a DCA figure that had the same 100K cycle data (EN-50342-6 protocol) as in the white paper with the addition of charge time data. Not sure if this is new, but they stated charge time stayed below 50s for the entire test period and was near 30-40s for most of that time.

     

    The last figure (#8) was data I hadn't seen before comparing a 30HT PbC and "a second, similar lead-carbon hybrid battery/supercapacitor" to an East Penn Group 31 AGM battery in terms of "state of health" over 286 cycles (11 weeks) in a modified J-2185 (whatever that means) protocol. It showed AGM SOH at 80% and 30HT at 100%. The "second" PbC showed similar, perhaps slightly better performance over its so-far 180 cycles of testing. They plan on testing a second AGM side-by-side.

     

    Cheers,
    Renzo
    24 Sep 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Link to the SAE paper, "Lead-Carbon Hybrid Battery/Supercapacitor Performance in Commercial Vehicle No-Idle Applications"
    http://bit.ly/NhFtSW
    24 Sep 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • "As fuel costs and anti-idling legislation become more prevalent, the life cycle cost of the energy storage component of no-idle systems is becoming a critical consideration. Current systems employ up to four AGM lead-acid batteries, with a one year standard warranty. OEMs have reported higher than acceptable warranty claim levels and are interested in examining the potential advantages of alternative storage technologies."

     

    1) So, do we have a material difference in the battery warranty between comm'l and non-comm'l vehicles? We were wondering how s/s car owner dissatisfaction would manifest itself to our advantage. Evidently in comm'l vehicles, the owners are filing enough warranty claims that the OEMs are motivated to seek a better solution. Nice to see that extra motivation in addition to fuel cost savings and environmental legislation motivations. Can the same happen with cars?

     

    2) Who are the OEMs? The vehicle makers or the battery makers? If it's the battery makers, then they might work with Axion some more. That would be huge. Since that's probably to good to be true, it makes me think that it's the vehicle makers, instead. If so, another pull-demand scenario for Axion.
    24 Sep 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo, Thanks much for sharing!

     

    One quick question. Was ""a second, similar lead-carbon hybrid battery/supercapacitor"" perhaps the Ultrabattery or do you think it was a LAB of some form with supercaps in the system?
    24 Sep 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    The graph legend lists them as "PbC#1" and "PbC#2". There is no further description in the text.
    24 Sep 2012, 09:17 PM