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  • Axion Power Concentrator 154: Sep. 25, 2012: APMarshall's Sep 2012 CEDIA Notes & Updated John Petersen Charts 294 comments
    Sep 26, 2012 5:37 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
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    Al Marshall's notes for CEDIA, September 6, 2012

    RoseWater General Update - RoseWater is focusing on Residential Hub (NYSE:RH) in the US because the high-end residential market and the US are what they know best and believe will come quickest. Eventually, they will expand internationally. At the show, folks from several Asian countries visited the booth and expressed strong interest. I didn't learn much about their other initiatives except that a university research project in Ontario is expected, in the short-term, to help size future Hub devices (2kw?).

    Residential Hub Technical - Three main electronics components: Charge Controller, Inverter, and Uninterruptible Power Supply. I took photos of each with my cell phone and they are posted at the end of these notes [APH: photos replaced with links to them for various reasons]. Note that the inverter in the RH can perform that function for solar panels, eliminating about ~25% of the cost of a solar panel system.

    Multiple hubs can be linked together although most of the examples I overheard involved a single bank of electronics being paired with up to five cabinets of batteries.

    The first hub, which is the unit at the show, was custom built by Axion in New Castle (at the electrode plant not the battery plant). Future units will be built by a third party. Suppliers may change as Axion's purchasing process is still underway. I believe the unit displayed at the show has an indoor cabinet. Future units will be outdoor capable. Inferred that each Hub will have an IP address since the device can be remotely monitored and I believe controlled. I latched onto the issue (really opportunity) that Rosewater should collect data from all the hubs and use it to assess utility power quality. This information could be used to help installers sell, particularly if smaller hubs are introduced in an attempt to go down-market.

    Competition - I didn't take the time to walk the entire show and gather info on competitors. I learned a little bit from the RoseWater folks. Pricing seemed to be in the ballpark of the closest comparable products, which really aren't that comparable. Mario pointed out that the major competitors (same guys mentioned at the annual conference) are building products aimed for the mass-market that are priced like the Residential Hub, something he believes won't work for the high-end residential market. I believe the biggest differentiator is Joe Pic's understanding of this market segment and the PbC battery.

    Competitors that approach the Hub in capabilities will likely have lithium Ion batteries, but cost will limit them to only have a small number of batteries. Competitors that use lead acid can have similar storage capacity, but their units will be very short-lived if the unit provides the same level of power conditioning as the RH.

    Note, this relates to the first question I asked: How important is the PbC's strengths in making the RH a truly differentiated product? The answer was that the batteries will be frequently tapped to provide power to fill power gaps and to accept power to eliminate power spikes. Thus, the combination of the electronics and the batteries will enable the RH to provide "perfect power" and to do it for many years. The safety aspects of the PbC are also important for indoor use as is the PbC's capability to operate outdoors. Looking at in another way, LI can't be used outdoors but is a safety risk indoors.

    Another form of competition is a device which the helpful installer called a "power conditioner". This device (costs $7-10k) apparently smooths the spike in power surges but doesn't have a storage capability to fill in the valleys and otherwise create the high quality power provided by the Residential Hub.

    I am not technical at all, so hopefully the above info is a good starting point for others who are more knowledgeable.

    Selling Residential Hub - RoseWater is very concerned about making sure the Hub is profitable for the installers. It appears that RoseWater will allow, if not encourage, installers to add some sort of markup (or give discounting) on the RH to add margin even though they will also be charging for installation.

    As I mentioned yesterday, most of the installers weren't concerned about the price. I remember one case where upon being told the price, the guy just shrugged, not even bothering to say "they'll pay it", which was the reaction from most of the folks. The most skeptical installer was a guy who agreed on the merits of the Residential Hub but thought he'd need help justifying the sale. This sparked a long and productive discussion, which in the end put him at ease.

    No one believes there will be issues selling RH to the homeowner installing $500,000 in electronics. The RH will protect and extend the life of all that equipment while adding access to renewables and a generator (generators provide low quality power so it is particularly important to fully condition that power). That's a no-brainer. The open question then becomes at what total system cost does $45k+ for a Residential Hub no longer seem automatic.

    Another factor that is good news for us is the fact that these very high-end homes tend to have unique circumstances associated with them. Often they are in isolated places that tend to have unreliable and poor quality power. Mountain homes fit this. One example was a home on a hilltop in California in an area where there are a lot of wildfires. Whenever there is a fire, the utility turns off the power in the entire area, often for an extended period. Apparently, this happens quite frequently.

    One of the most interesting things I learned came from one of the installers. After visiting the booth, I asked one if he'd be willing to take a few minutes to answer some questions for me. The gentleman and his wife ended up talking with me for at least twenty minutes and shared a lot of fascinating information and viewpoints.

    One very interesting point he made that relates to this topic was that nearly 100% of the very high-end homes being constructed today include wiring in the garage to support charging an electric car. He went on to say that 50% of these homes have the charging equipment installed. It would seem that these homeowners have come to accept electric cars to an entirely different degree than has the general public. I laughed and thought of JP when I heard this. It did make me think that RoseWater ought to market to electric car owners and purchase mailing lists of these owners if possible.

    Another point by this same installer was that he thought the biggest problem selling the RH is that installers are generally electronically oriented and tend to lack expertise and may be intimidated by electrical systems. This point indirectly came up with another installer earlier in the day who told a story about another installer who caused a great deal of damage to the electronics in a house when he tried to test a generator that he had incorrectly connected.

    As I mentioned earlier, I don't have any information to share on sales or how many sales RoseWater is expecting to make. They did share with me a number that may be a good starting point when it comes to the size of the potential market. I was told that roughly 4,000 high-end home electronic control systems like the ones sold by Crestron are sold in the U.S. each year (more on Crestron below). I believe that number is for systems valued at $100k or more (presumably doesn't include dealer installation and configuration costs of an additional 25% to 50%).

    By my math, each 1% share of that market earned by RoseWater would likely yield about $1m for Axion, with half of that being PbC related and the other half a wag on Axion's pricing of the other components.

    To better learn about these systems, I went to the Crestron booth, which appears to be the 500lb gorilla in the space based on their sales: ~$500m and presence at the show (their "booth" was 4-5 times as big as the second largest booth at the show). Privately held Crestron's products include the electronics and controls for: intercom, music, lights, climate, TV, shades, and security. At the show they were promoting their API (application programming interface) for installers to configure and customize systems. There's a recent Forbes magazine profile of the founder and CEO, who I saw at an early morning panel discussion on the future of the industry. If we want to learn about the market and potential of the Residential Hub, we should, amongst other things, try to find out as much as we can about Crestron.

    RoseWater shared the booth with a company called Energysquad.com, which is their new Maryland dealer and I believe their first. EnergySquad seems to be a mixture of distributor and dealer but because the RH units will likely be made to order, I think their role will be more as a dealer/installer. I'm not certain of that however. Most of Energy Squad's booth seemed to be devoted to LED lighting although they have a great many other products and are adding more aggressively. I haven't had a chance to research Energysquad.com beyond what I learned from talking to their folks at the show.

    Axion update mainly based on my conversation with Vani Dantam - Interest is very strong and his team is responding to a lot of inquiries/testing projects. I was not able to ascertain if activity has continued to increase beyond the high level reported in the annual meeting.

    Lots of international interest. Vani had just that morning received an inquiry from a country in the Caribbean for batteries to support a solar project. He's also had lots of interest from India although he noted that Axion would need to establish support infrastructure there.

    I sought and received Mr. Dantam's confirmation about the method JP uses to estimate PbC sales. He agreed with my statement that since Axion is charging customers for test batteries that John's PbC sales estimate will reflect the level/trend of testing activity.

    Vani is well aware of the need to show sales before the next fund raise. He was optimistic that there would be good news before year-end. Obviously, he can't say much, but I had to voice the concern that every one of us must share.

    There is one thing I can say about the personnel issues that several people have brought up. Marketing the Residential Hub to the CEDIA audience is obviously Joe P's thing. He conceived of the product two years ago, championed it, and eventually won Mr. Granville's approval. At CEDIA, Mr. Granville and Mr. Dantam stayed in the background. They sometimes listened in on the conversations between the RoseWater people and the installers but didn't say much, if anything at all, during those conversations. They seemed to be there for the same reason I was there.

    On a related note, this is probably a good opportunity to point out the respect Joe showed to us Axionistas. He could have easily told me to go away and come back later when fewer people would be in the booth, or just have me hang back more. Instead, several times he told me to come in closer (Joe was in the process of losing his voice so it was very difficult to hear him while also keeping a respectful distance). A few of the installers seemed to take note of all the "hangers on" but none of them let it bother them. Clearly Joe understood that I was representing all of you and he thought that sufficiently important to justify allowing me to hang out in what was a relatively crowded booth.

    In conclusion, I can't say this is comprehensive. I know I'm late getting this out. I'll add more as my recollection permits and am glad to answer your questions as best I can. I'll also go and review the questions on the instablog and add here any further responses to those questions.
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    In consideration of potential bandwidth and other concerns, we've omitted the pictures that APMarshal provided in APC 150. You can revisit Axion Power Concentrator 150: Sep. 12, 2012: APMarshall's Notes From CEDIA September 2012 to read the article and view the pictures or click the below links to just view the individual pictures.

    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474164623192055-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474165613913403-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-13474167047484539-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
    http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/11/1631091-1347416800736399-Axion-Power-Host_origin.jpg
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    John Petersen has provided price and volume charts updated through 9/14/2012.

    (click to enlarge)John Petersen

    (click to enlarge)John Petersen

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    Axion Power Concentrator 149: Sep. 9, 2012: Rosewater Energy Hub Articles, John Petersen's Updated Graphs, have links to several recent Rosewater-related articles and earlier charts from John Petersen.
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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    Testing Summary Statistics On Stocks. FocalPoint Analytics has begun an instablog that will apply statistical disciplines to metrics of stock activity to produce summary indications of likely actions going forward. Well worth a visit.
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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (294)
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  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Numero Uno!
    25 Sep 2012, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29654) | Send Message
     
    Numero Dos has arrived in Paris and is heading downstairs for the DCA workshop. I've prepared a Sliderocket version of my presentation with a full voiceover and will be posting it tomorrow as soon as my talk is done.

     

    Now I'm off to have some fun!
    25 Sep 2012, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    I look forward to viewing your presentation.
    25 Sep 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    I was going to tell you ti hit one out of the park but a solid double would put us in scoring position. Can't wait for that presentation...
    25 Sep 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    good luck John and please spread the word.... PbC ;)
    25 Sep 2012, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    and Tesla is doing an offering... just like John predicted
    25 Sep 2012, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA): Offering aggregate of ~5MM shares, including underwriters options to purchase, follow on offering.

     

    http://mwne.ws/NOuYHi

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1827) | Send Message
     
    And TSLA whiffed on their Q3 2012 revenue and production targets:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/ca2...

     

    But Musk has increased production estimates for 2013! Just as long as they don't have to pay back that little $465M loan from the DOE according to their agreement.

     

    Not to be all tin-foil hat but is there any way the Morgan Stanley upgrade was the result some incestuous relationship between TSLA, the government and MS? The timing just seems too convenient.

     

    D
    25 Sep 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning over here & Good Afternoon in Paris!!!

     

    "Tesla cuts 2012 revenue forecast due to slow Model S rollout"

     

    http://yhoo.it/PUYQjD
    Carlos.
    25 Sep 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Carlos!

     

    Last trade down 2.46 USD in pre-market.

     

    http://bit.ly/QhwXV2
    25 Sep 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    This conversation was recently intercepted:

     

    Passenger on the Teslitanic: "Lookout, it's an iceberg right in front of us!!"

     

    Teslador: "Really, I still can't see it... You must be wrong*; I am a believer." <pause> "Everything looks beautiful to me. Are you sure you don't want to borrow my holy St. Elon blinders?"

     

    * Recording partially unintelligible. Final word may be "stupid", "tool of the oil companies", "insensitive to the transcendant inner beauty of the S-85 that conquers all", or "jealous that you don't own Tesla stock/car."
    25 Sep 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29654) | Send Message
     
    I love those good news bad news PR days. Last night they'd built 10 Superchargers that can accommodate 4 cars each. Then today they cut their ramp to 200 cars in Q3 and perhaps 2,500 in Q4.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    We can charge em faster than we can build em. "Paid paradise put up a parking (s)lot."

     

    I see in the offering St. Elon might take 3% or so of the offering. That's mighty divine of him.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    John: And amazing, is it not, that MS just recently slapped a $50 price target on them?

     

    How prescient, how ... unexpected.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Won't rapid charging of the batteries harm them?
    25 Sep 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4449) | Send Message
     
    >FocalPointAnalytics ... The party line is "NO!!!!!". Truth, rapid charge done improperly will but we all know The Company That Can Not Be Named has that all worked out. Rapid charging often will shorten the life of the battery pack but since no knows what the life time is then "shorten" has no meaning ... thus, no harm can be done. Simple
    25 Sep 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Great post DRich... thank you.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Just saw Cramer on CNBC 3 minutes before market open slamming Tesla (doesn't know what people's thesis is on owning this company after what was revealed yesterday).

     

    More importantly, he raised the issue that he doesn't know anyone who will take batteries from electric vehicles when they're used up. "What are they going to do with them?" He then touted natural gas cars as the solution.

     

    I guess he hasn't heard that lead-carbon batteries can be easily recycled... someone needs to educate him... maybe on his site at TheStreet ;-)
    25 Sep 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Brief note from Vani:

     

    Rick,

     

    Appreciate the comments. We are working on a new web site. Should be out shortly. Abstract for the SAE paper is available on the SAE web site already. We will post the full paper on our web site after 10/2.

     

    Regards,

     

    Vani Dantam

     

    --
    [Vani and Enders are presenting a paper http://bit.ly/NhFtSW 10/2 at an SAE (Society of Automobile Engineers) meeting http://bit.ly/PgG2wp. Seems reasonable that Axion cannot distribute the paper until after the presentation.]
    25 Sep 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Thanks for the post.

     

    Ask and ye shall receive I guess.
    25 Sep 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    That's good news Rick! Thanks.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rick.

     

    Very good to hear that Mr. Dantam is on top of this.

     

    Let us thank him, as well, for being receptive and responsive to our concerns.
    25 Sep 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps they'll provide some color on the mysterious "PbC#2" from the SAE paper? I wonder how quickly the technology is evolving and what they can afford to change if current versions have been tested for so many weeks in anticipation of big customers.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    OK, now they are teasing me...

     

    $.277 indeed!

     

    I am tempted to reset to $.25 and resume stealth turtle lurking mode...
    25 Sep 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Mario just sent me a ResHub testimonial from the CEDIA show. http://bit.ly/SuXShL

     

    Crank up the volume, the recording is a little quiet. RoseWater has another testimonial, but the sound quality wasn't adequate to post.
    25 Sep 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rick. That testimonial is also now on Rosewater's website.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    TB, Make em come to you!

     

    http://bit.ly/QvztXy
    25 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Yep, that's stealth turtle lurking mode all right...
    25 Sep 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • tocoadog
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    ...Just purchased 4600 shares. Not much...but over 1.5+ years, have accumulated quite a bit
    25 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    what's the level 2 look like?
    25 Sep 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Hedonisitc selling going on. The ask gets hit, and then they drop the ask. If this keeps up...
    25 Sep 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    and now what? seemed like there was a limitless supply at .277... then the ask pops out to .286... almost a penny...

     

    goofy sellers

     

    ***

     

    Tesla news + ELBC +new website coming + SAE white paper

     

    a great trade for some would be sell TSLA and buy AXPW... as some folks have made some money on TSLA...

     

    ***

     

    yup, I'm goofy too... but I'm not selling... I bought more AXPW today
    25 Sep 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    yeah, i took out the ask. watched the ask drop, then lol'ed when i read HTL's comment. interesting day,
    25 Sep 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    the hedonism is back

     

    Tim should be filled now

     

    Tripleback should be getting his at .275 momentarily...

     

    Anyone else? Today's "name your own price" day
    25 Sep 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    10k@.2751 more for me.

     

    who is FANC? are they spooking sellers out of shares? their sell @.286 halts buys while they can move the ask down to accommodate end of the month guys?
    25 Sep 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    FANC M Finance 500, Inc. NASDAQ TRADING 949-724-4880

     

    They also show bulletin board trading and 2 locs in Florida.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): It's moved now: bid $0.277 x 5K (FANC), ask $0.286 x 5K (FANC).
    FANC has been playing both sides all morning.

     

    # Buys, Shares: 25 154300, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2797
    # Sells, Shares: 8 137900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2772
    VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2785

     

    Through 10:43

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Pretty large block just went through... 77k
    25 Sep 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Yes and at my price (.276) yet my 10k bid just sits there...
    25 Sep 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Tim, you AON?
    25 Sep 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Yes - always...
    25 Sep 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    back of the line then. unless we get more than 10k under your bid you won't get filled.

     

    looks like you got filled while i type.
    25 Sep 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    so that 77k may have been a 100k filled to 77k? and why my 10k wasn't added to make it 87k? really showing my ignorance here...

     

    yup filled... TB you are next...
    25 Sep 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    Now another 147K!

     

    Curiosity; Exide has only traded 75,810, so the whole Tesla, AONE, Chrysler experiment gone bad, isn't affecting all battery companies.

     

    Way I'm seeing it, this can only be BlackRock selling today.
    25 Sep 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    my 50K @ .2772 filled, and sure as rain, the price went lower. Not much, but at least my streak is intact
    25 Sep 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    Yep, the 77K @.276 was "lurking" me (at 10:42 AM) as well as the 100K add-on order's balance of 33K @ .276 (at 11:33 AM). Overall position built over the past four months at average cost of .316... Looking to become a small fortune (rather than a SMALLER fortune). Thanks John Petersen!! (... and all you other folks who add good info to the APC.)
    25 Sep 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC: Many of us are jealous of your average share price. Well done!

     

    Welcome to the Axion Power Concentrator.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2671) | Send Message
     
    Does this 'splain any of the "strange" Bid/Ask and Execution price/quantities on AXPW?

     

    http://bit.ly/Twz2zv
    25 Sep 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    Naked: Great find! No more 100 share $3.00 MM, tape painting moves allowed!

     

    In case some people don't read this forthcoming FINRA reg, it will now cost the market maker, with say, a 30 cent share price, a minmum of $750, because the market maker by law will have to submit a 2500 share minimum quote.

     

    That's great news in my opinion.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Wow, 463K Volume already
    ETRF 15k@.275 By FANC 5K@.286
    25 Sep 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    volume is pretty good indication of reversal. we close at these prices and it's a win.
    25 Sep 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    time will tell
    25 Sep 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): The worm has turned, Buy:Sell 1:1.64
    # Buys, Shares: 28 175526, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2793
    # Sells, Shares: 20 288100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2764
    VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2774

     

    Through 11:37.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    10k@ .2799 more added

     

    narrowing spread...
    25 Sep 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    5k at 0.2705 the last addition to my holdings before they actually sell some products.
    Same is true for ZBB with additions for 0.30 but they plan to be at break - even this year(2013)
    25 Sep 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    know we have some more selling incoming today, gonna have to wait a couple of hours before i buy more. the narrowing spread would normally get me thinking we could break up today but i just don't see it knowing end of the month sale event is on.
    25 Sep 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    is it me or does selling seems to come in big chunky waves about every hour... then they try to let it sit for an hour... then repeat and drop kick the ask
    25 Sep 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Rick
    Good catch
    I'm still trying to get a sense on "how long is beyond long enough" for OEM testing and as to "why" NS hasn't received their original order, or stepped up to the plate, to the next bigger order.
    Surely this must be of greater concern at the moment, than next round of dilutive financing and Rosewater ?
    25 Sep 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    APH, please delete comments from Johhny rambo

     

    I think we've had enough
    25 Sep 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    save versus WIS required to ignore effects of worry troll. fortunately +1 modifier added to throw for each worry troll post.
    25 Sep 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    deaf ears johnny boy! deaf ears...
    25 Sep 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Johhny rambo functions as my reminder of why I would never go back to the brand x AXPW board. Unfortunately I lost the company of a couple great people when I left but with JR representing about 2% of the noise one had to tolerate to post there it became intolerable.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Jr

     

    Have you had the common decency to respond to JP's PM yet?
    "To express hostility without consequence is to be an anonymous coward."
    25 Sep 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Other Telefax:
    Any news of our representatives in Paris?
    Carlos.

     

    I am going to Isla Pascua the next month. Someone needs a Moai?
    25 Sep 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, I'll take one! you taking your anti-gravity gun with you?
    25 Sep 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Tim:
    I will not forget your recommendation: "anti-gravity gun".
    Another question: You want a Moai of 15 or 30 Ton? With hat or no hat?.
    Have a nice day!
    Carlos.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, my gun is only rated for 15T so we should stick with one of the smaller ones. A hat would be nice...

     

    Enjoy your trip! I am envious...
    25 Sep 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Tim:
    Thanks.
    I will take your request pending meanwhile I am going coordinate with FEDEX.
    Carlos.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, you can change that pending status as I have all we need to move that piece. Can you send dimensions please? no need to bother with the competition. Wait! oops, where am i picking it up again? <smile>
    25 Sep 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Tim, Let me know if you're going to handle the pick-up with Carlos yourself. Here's a starter. I'll send more detail on the route pending your decision.

     

    http://bit.ly/PlsnlH

     

    PS Should be a much clearer path than Axion to fortunes!
    25 Sep 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    very nice iindelco! but its not the long and winding roads that made me go hum or oops! its that vast ocean... maybe I should get my captains license and buy a boat (clearer path still)...

     

    PS to All - Tim has a platform truck and can move just about anything including a Maoi (shameless plug).
    25 Sep 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Tim:
    I have understood that there is a little more than 600 Moais (Only in the Island), the first thing (When I reach the Island) I will measure them and sent the measures.
    Have a good night.
    Carlos.

     

    Paciencia!!! with my English.
    Hope tomorrow AXPW will have a nice day, I want to buy some more.
    25 Sep 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Its a deal Carlos and your English Rocks (muy bueno)!
    25 Sep 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    Hi, My name is Bird and I'm an Axionista. It all started 3 years ago when I heard about Axion and a patent they received for a new kind of battery. First it was 500 shares, then 5000. Then I couldn't stop. It started interfering with my work, then my sleep. I started hiding it from my friends.

     

    I think I'm all better now. After another 50000 today I'm done. Finished. No more. I swear this time is different. You have to believe me.
    25 Sep 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    The Axionista two-step plan

     

    Step # 1. Admit that you have a problem.

     

    Step # 2. Buy more shares and return to step # 1.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Haha, I like seeing these types of posts. More shares locked up, the better! I'm contemplating buying more today myself.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    $.275 filled.

     

    I am content until $.25...

     

    I missed the other chance to buy $.25 shares, so megafish everywhere take note, I intend to carve off some fillets this time around...
    25 Sep 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Step #3 See if you get anything back from the IRS to put into your Roth IRA and buy more shares.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    alsobirdman, LOL.

     

    Welcome aboard. No pictures please!
    25 Sep 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Here's a compilation of my comments on the SAE paper from the end of the last Concentrator in case anyone missed them (with thanks to iindelco, DRich, HTL and faster for their previous comments):
    ----------

     

    I just downloaded the SAE paper that Stephan Moroney found. It's pay-walled with a DRM agreement, so I'm afraid I'll have to paraphrase. Keep in mind although I'm a reformed medicinal chemist, I'm no battery guru.

     

    In overall format it was much like the August 2011 white paper. The bulk of the paper was descriptive, covering the advantages of PbC in no-idle systems, the failings of AGM batteries in that setting and the testing protocols used.

     

    There was a DCA figure that had the same 100K cycle data (EN-50342-6 protocol) as in the white paper with the addition of charge time data. Not sure if this is new, but they stated charge time stayed below 50s for the entire test period and was near 30-40s for most of that time.

     

    The last figure (#8) was data I hadn't seen before comparing a 30HT PbC and "a second, similar lead-carbon hybrid battery/supercapacitor" to an East Penn Group 31 AGM battery in terms of "state of health" over 286 cycles (11 weeks) in a modified J-2185 (whatever that means) protocol. It showed AGM SOH at 80% and 30HT at 100%. The "second" PbC showed similar, perhaps slightly better performance over its so-far 180 cycles of testing. They plan on testing a second AGM side-by-side.

     

    ADDENDUM:
    The text said PbC#1 and the AGM were tested to 11 weeks (286 cycles) and PbC#2 to 7 weeks (182 cycles).

     

    Figure 8, however shows PbC#1 (and the AGM) going to 15 weeks (390 cycles) and PbC#2 to 11 weeks (286 cycles).

     

    I tend to believe the graph as I don't see how data could accidentally be added, whereas they might not have updated the text to reflect the latest testing data.

     

    The phrasing *is* curious. I should also note that at the longest datapoint PbC#1 was at 100% SOH while #2 was at 110%. Probably not significant with testing from a single battery, but tantalizing none the less.

     

    Cheers,
    Renzo
    25 Sep 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2671) | Send Message
     
    Renzo - my comment from #153 re the above SAE article:

     

    iindelco - What may be very clear here ( http://bit.ly/RZIipk ) is the passivation (and gassing) problems of the PbC graphitic negative electrode, period; ultrabattery or whatever PbC. It certainly is an electrochemical system subject to the active materials and the electrolyte, complicated especially if the electrolyte has a role, which it does, other than simply conducting or transfer of electrons from + to -, and v/v; something the alkaline (Li and NiM) systems don't have to contend with. So the PbA systems have several everchanging variables to contend with - nothing new; just not simple to arrive at the "correct" combination for a number of different applications.

     

    Sep 25 02:03 PM | 2 Likes |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
    25 Sep 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    nakedjaybird, Thanks much for reposting this because I missed your first post.

     

    Had some discussions with Kirk relative to the drying out problem with VRLA batteries under heavy round trip cycling which is exacerbated at elevated temperatures. Thus the more typical placement of these batteries in the passenger compartment or the trunk (vented to the outside). His comments were that PbC did not suffer near the problems experienced by VRLA batteries under similar use patterns.

     

    At the time I was interested in understanding this for another reason. Obviously if you have a device that is sensitive to elevated temperature placement near the ICE can be more of an issue. In fact even flooded batteries suffer this effect and you will most often see them placed in front of the vehicle engine compartment as far from the engine as possible. Anyway, at the time, I was thinking of the long copper run from the front end of the vehicle to the rear which is not cheap in light of the energy transfer requirements at around 12VDC. Ideally one would like to keep the battery as close as possible to the generator/starter from a wiring cost perspective.

     

    Just one of many considerations of coarse but I like to think of all the advantages and disadvantages from a packaging and cost perspective.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: IIRC, we also saw a paper that stated the PbC had less problem because the hydrogen recombined better. There's a weaker acid solution as well. There's a difference in the way the ions migrate?

     

    My memory could be wrong, but it seems a strong memory ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Yep. If you gas and exceed the low pressure venting valve limit this in effect causes the drying out process ( Can't recombine what you've vented ). Not a problem for non-sealed flooded batteries because you pop the caps and refill with distilled water (remember that) but with VRLA it's a problem.

     

    And PBC handles it well.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2671) | Send Message
     
    iindelco - are you indicating that the gassing is not a problem, or that if it is a problem then the recombination handles it, rendering gassing not a problem??

     

    As HTL indicates (and also the SAE paper), indeed the acid concentration as well as various additives address the real cause of the problem hopefully; I'm not that sure that recombination would be the first desired fix.

     

    As to the physical placement of the battery and the issues you concern beyond the electrochemisty, they are easy fixes.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Naked, They all gas but PbC not as much under the heavier use patterns associated with SS at higher temperatures.

     

    Be careful calling placement in a vehicle an easy fix. Packaging in a vehicle is very difficult because space is at a huge premium. Batteries are harder because they are always that rectangular package. I worked with an engineer that had to manage all the blow molded and injection molded washer bottles for numerous vehicles (all unique). You can't imagine the placement and the odd designs trying to fit these in. Stuffed in wheel wells and all kinds of odd spaces.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    Recall the chemistry of discharge in the lead acid reactions:

     

    Negative plate reaction: Pb(s) + HSO4− (aq) → PbSO4(s) + H+(aq) + 2e-

     

    Positive plate reaction: PbO2(s) + HSO4− (aq) + 3H+(aq) + 2e- → PbSO4(s) + 2H2O(l)

     

    http://bit.ly/OofAmJ

     

    The gassing occurs when "overcharging" electrolyzes water into elemental oxygen and hydrogen. The hydrogen is being formed when 2H+ combines with 2e-, which is occurring at the anode, or "negative plate" during the charging process (electron flow is reversed during charging).

     

    I suspect that the fine-pored activated carbon anode can absorb a good bit of this elemental H2, whereas it boils right off of a solid lead anode as bubbles of free hydrogen gas. That is my way of thinking about why the PbC design has less problems with outgassing during high charge rates and high temperatures.

     

    I could be wrong, but I think carbon has a very high adsorption/absorption rate for H2, which is why some have suggested using tanks packed with carbon fiber as a way of storing H2 for fuel cell vehicles.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2671) | Send Message
     
    iindelco - understood; all I was saying is that electrochemical issues are a beast beyond physical placement, fit, hookup, etc., but not saying the latter are not challenges; they are. Both weight and space when restricted are indeed restrictive and require much talent to handle correctly.
    25 Sep 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    "... carbon has a very high adsorption/absorption rate for H2, which is why some have suggested using tanks packed with carbon fiber as a way of storing H2 for fuel cell vehicles. "

     

    And of storing CH4 for NG and fuel cell vehicles.
    25 Sep 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    nakedjaybird, Agreed.

     

    Problems are multi-layered for sure. All resolved with a stack of compromises hopefully yielding something as close to an optimum solution as is possible. In each program from concept through launch, with each achieved milestone, you go forward with a pocket full of woulda, shoulda, couldas. Yes, timing is a deliverable too so don't look back keep pushing. :)

     

    Oh and each contributor thinks their piece can't be compromised.
    25 Sep 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, NJB. Sorry I missed your comment, was in a hurry.
    25 Sep 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29654) | Send Message
     
    Everything I've heard says the PbC is extraordinary when to comes to recombining any Hydrogen that's evolved from the negative electrodes and gassing is NOT an issue.
    26 Sep 2012, 05:25 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    And the beat goes on...

     

    Consumer Reports Pans Fisker Luxury Electric Car

     

    http://bit.ly/TwnQTB
    25 Sep 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29654) | Send Message
     
    The DCA workshop was a bit deep technically, but there was nobody there who even pretended to have a solution, except of course Enders Dickenson who make it abundantly clear that two more years of testing had only confirmed the results they first presented in Istanbul.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Great news. Should make the search for a strategic investor a whole lot easier. There they all are, in one room. We're the only one that has what they want. Come to daddy.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1911) | Send Message
     
    I imagine Enders comments went like this:

     

    "Ummmm, guys? Duhhhh, the PbC!" -- Hence the deep technical jargon.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    JP, did Enders present or just part of the discussion?
    25 Sep 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Were there any materials or handouts that we will be able to look at?
    25 Sep 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    Tim, Stephan: My money is that JP is currently constructing an Instablog, or an article for the Street.

     

    I'd also like to know the head count, and what major automakers were there.

     

    Tim: Enders did present.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I suspect you are right and I would hope that he is constructing those articles in his head and is far away from his laptop because he is networking and rubbing elbows...

     

    Thanks for the answer...
    25 Sep 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    You're quite right, Tim. I'm hoping JP is doing a lot of gladhanding.
    25 Sep 2012, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I wouldn't take that other side of that bet.

     

    Glad to hear Enders presented ... it bothered me a little bit that he was not scheduled to present at the DCA workshop.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    gladhand... good one Maya! you know your words...

     

    http://bit.ly/PXC0rB
    25 Sep 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4449) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... So you're saying you were stuck in a room of people that still haven't considered (let alone done any testing) the Axion PbC or, probably, the East Penn Ultrabattery?
    25 Sep 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    DRich, one of the Panellists was a CSIRO guy, which means UltraBattery (right?). Of course, there was also a Ford guy:

     

    http://bit.ly/TwtLbc
    25 Sep 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Also JCI's Eberhard Meissner.

     

    He is Director of Research and Development,
    Johnson Controls Power Solutions Europe

     

    Enders should be taking Dr. Meissner to dinner instead of Brishwain (sorry Brian)
    25 Sep 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    if anyone thinks he has to have more shares now is the time to buy.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    next block of 100,000+ shares coming in about 25 minutes if the day's form holds
    25 Sep 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    gonna want to look at average trade price #s after today. some interesting bid sell offers today.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    ah well... went and proved me wrong... why get disciplined with the selling now? or maybe there's a different seller leading now?
    25 Sep 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Jon: maybe they "Got 'er done".

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    they are coming lower. i expect they'll hit the ask.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/A87h9f showing volume of 773,351 as of 2:20 p.m. EST
    25 Sep 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Since February 1, not including today, approximately 52M shares have traded. 52M/2 = 26M shares have been sold by willing sellers.

     

    Axion has almost turned over the number of shares they issued in their secondary.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    Great "duh, why didn't we do this earlier" idea of the day. Want to cut down traffic time, and emissions? Just make the traffic lights smarter.

     

    In an experimental project conducted in East Liberty, a suburb of Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon has installed such a "thinking" or "realised" traffic light system with positive results.

     

    -- At a news conference Monday in East Liberty next to one of those intersections, CMU researchers said the smart traffic signal system, in place since June, has reduced vehicle wait time on Penn Avenue, Penn Circle South and Penn Circle East, by an average of 40 percent. Travel time through the area declined by 26 percent and vehicle emissions are down an average of 21 percent.

     

    Read more: http://bit.ly/Qw5ApT
    25 Sep 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Maya, only really makes sense if they account for the weight of the vehicle (which they may, haven't followed the link). I can't tell you how many times my 80k truck has been stopped by a 2k car approaching the main route from a side street. As soon s they hit the sensor I get the yellow and then red. And to make matters worse, they generally make a right hand turn. So, I agree if the system is smart enough to keep the heavy consumers rolling <smile>...
    25 Sep 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4449) | Send Message
     
    >Mayscribe ... And here I am, thinking you were one of those against government spending.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Maya: So s/s is less beneficial in those areas.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Maya, What about Mickey D's drive throughs? LOL

     

    I'm impressed when I drive by one of these "Heart attack in a sack" places and the parking spaces are empty while people appear to be willing to wait for 15 minutes to half an hour with their engines running in the drive through. Save all that gas and time if you'd just get off your ---.

     

    PS I thought some states passed legislation that disallowed this some they have drive through parking spaces with drug runners! lol
    25 Sep 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I get your humor. ;-)

     

    I'm all for government spending that makes sense. This seems to be a relatively inexpensive and way overdue concept, which appears fairly easy to implement, and has already proven measurable and quantifiable results.

     

    HTL: Good point, but I don't believe this will lower expectations of what Pike, Lux, or JCI see as a generational switch to stop/start vehicles.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't dare drive a class "eighter" through East Liberty, if at all possible.

     

    No factoring for the "heavies" in the experimental project.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Maya, true but why are we modeling 25 mpg over a few square miles when we might should be modeling stopping a 5 mpg vehicle umptine (like that number?) times along its route - a route that is traveled 120k miles a year vs 10k a year?

     

    While we are asking questions, why do the interstates go up and over the county roads in Texas? I wonder how much fuel is used (both directions) as the vehicles pass over that county road?

     

    I agree with you Maya that a lot can be done with traffic and the highway system. I am just sayin' lets help out Tim's bottom line here...

     

    PS I would love to figure out a way to get my combination on the RR tracks and experience that non-stop gentle grade.
    25 Sep 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    I hear ya, Tim.
    25 Sep 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    "While we are asking questions, why do the interstates go up and over the county roads in Texas? I wonder how much fuel is used (both directions) as the vehicles pass over that county road?"

     

    :-) Easypeasy answers, Tim. 1) The county roads were there first and had squatters rights and State's rights to back them up (feds are bottom rung ya know), 2) the added fuel consumption from climbing those overpasses puts more highway tax revenues in State coffers and 3) building those overpasses with majority (75%-90%) federal funding created more highway construction jobs, boosted local re-bar and concrete production, and 4) increased the reflow to Texas of federal taxes paid by State residents. (Of course, those State's rights fellows may have overlooked the added federal highway taxes that are associated with collection of those additional State highway taxes.)
    25 Sep 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I just noticed all those oil wells along side the road and figured the owners had something to do with it <smile>. Although, I am brutally familiar with all that you mentioned...
    25 Sep 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (884) | Send Message
     
    Any energy lost fighting gravity to go up an interstate overpass would be regained coming down the other side. Energy consumption at highway speeds is by far dominated by overcoming wind resistance. If you want so save gas, slow down.
    27 Sep 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    I agree on the slow down part but disagree about the part the energy is regained on the far side of the overpass. We get some back but there is still loss times thousands of vehicles a day times infinity and beyond...
    27 Sep 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Tim, on a smooth, symmetrical overpass, a constant throttle going up and down should have minimal excess fuel use. Of course, a constant throttle may mean slowing from 70 to 55 while going up, and slowly reaccelerating going down. At a constant speed, you will burn up more going up than you regain coming down. Maintaining speed on long uphills uses a lot of fuel - which you already know.

     

    Some people like to accelerate going uphill - I used to. What a fuel waste!
    27 Sep 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Rick: In the past, my last contract for IBM, I had a 47.5 mile commute each way. In the summer, my '00 'Vette averaged 32.5 mpg week after week by lots of driving tricks, one of which was slowly easing the throttle and allowing some speed to bleed off on any rise. If I wanted to accelerate and a downhill was near, I'd wait for it and then *ease* into the throttle.

     

    It's not that I wanted to save fuel, but to entertain myself I started games of getting on and off the freeway without touching the brake in between entry and exit ramps. This took the place of wishing I was on the back roads hot-dogging it around the curves and whatnot.

     

    In the winter, average dropped to ~32.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    First, my point was about the millions and millions of vehicles passing over the overpass in its lifetime while the small county road had only a minute fraction of the traffic (west Texas). I think we are saying the same thing otherwise.

     

    The way to conquer the overpass would be to cut the throttle and let the momentum carry you over and then press resume as gravity took control on the other side. However, nobody does this including Mr MPG (me) who just leaves the cruise engaged.

     

    You want to save fuel don't use the brakes. You cut the throttle and coast (ignore the honking horns behind you). The perfectly executed off ramp stop would have the brakes first applied when the vehicle comes to rest at the top of the ramp.
    27 Sep 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Nice rebound on the share price with that kind of vol.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2671) | Send Message
     
    Maya - I've driven those Pgh lights for many years; any help is help. At any price????? Go S/S and save the gas everywhere without the capex for the lighting systems. The value of the peoples time, etc., minor really. Frustration cost? Much. Unless of course you factor in the available time to text and talk without causing an accident. A little stopping today is more important than ever for texters and those they harm (priceless).
    25 Sep 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9624) | Send Message
     
    Naked: Funny.

     

    Maybe the smart traffic light system will be nanny-state smart enough to throw a pinpoint EMP at the texters, temporarily wiping out their cell phones.

     

    Then you also must know how to properly pronounce East Liberty in Pittsburgh-ese. I've driven through "Sliberty" hundreds of times, and it is a tangled, poorly designed mess of streets to get through. I also recall taking my mom to the Sears store that used to be (?) there.

     

    I found in the comments a quite cynical comment that basically went...with better efficiency, more cars will slip thorugh Sliberty, only increasing congestion, and polution. Heaven forbid to be a pedestrian.

     

    Funny stuff.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2671) | Send Message
     
    maya - yunz dead on. Go Stillers. And stay ot o donton.

     

    PS - re. more efficient movement of cars thru EsLiberty just causes them to pile up a little downstream. It's like putting a robot into a process line which preciously speeds up that operation, but then not fixing the upstream nor downstream operation to reap the real value. THAT still exists EVERYWHERE.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1458) | Send Message
     
    No EOD dump?

     

    All aboard the Axion Express!
    25 Sep 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Well THAT was strong---big volume, lots 'o dumping early, and we close up. Pick ur theory---big sellers running low, end of T+3 4th Qtr, ELBC pop starting 13:34, the power of Axionistaville, planets aligning, my rugged good looks...
    25 Sep 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, Since you choose to show an eel instead of your picture, it cannot be your good looks! :-))

     

    As a neophyte expert trader :-)) I would hope that willing traders are nearly exhausted.
    25 Sep 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Me, too, jveal. BTW, the pic is of a lungfish. I know, looks a lot like an eel that's on top of the mud. Occasionally comes out of the water to hunt. I sometimes pop up and bite off some shares, so I can no longer say I'm only a catfish.
    25 Sep 2012, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    So will the open tomorrow be 0.29 or above?
    25 Sep 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): EOD stuff partly copied from my insta (later).
    # Trds: 103, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 77000, Vol 842898, AvTrSz: 8183
    Min. Pr: 0.2705, Max Pr: 0.2865, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2780
    # Buys, Shares: 48 289933, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2807
    # Sells, Shares: 55 552965, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2765
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.91 (34.4% "buys"). DlyShts 280168 (33.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 50.67%

     

    Well, where were these shorts yesterday? Were they saving them up? I suspect some "pre-loading" of the MM portfolios was done. Today looks much more like what we would see with heavy selling.

     

    Oh well, another "mystery of the universe".

     

    That's all I'll say today.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    HTL -

     

    Are the heavy handed shorts potentially coming from Blackrock?
    25 Sep 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: remember these are usually not "real shorts" as we would think of them. The are, IMO, 100% mechanical effects of naked short sells to satisfy sell orders from brokers and their customers being processed by market-makers. Rules equire those orders to be flagged short if they are not in the MM portfolio at the time the sell is made.

     

    Even if the MM has already "purchased" the shares, normal settlement time would be 3 days after the trade, until which time they are *not* considered in the portfolio. N.B. it seems like everyboday and their brother who's a broker now ons a market-maker, so it may be possible that shares are transferred very quickly to the MM portfolio (DTCC has added a lot of interactive portals, over the last few years, for the customers to ease things and speed things up).

     

    As you can tell here http://bit.ly/uGVJsb there is (and shouldn't be, per JP) any real shorting outside of the market-makers at these prices. Those numbers support that contention.

     

    Going to the core of the question, "Who's selling", we've been guessing at that for a long time and really have no more idea than in the past - Blackrock, Manatuck, Special Situations are ones we speculate and there's probably, in aggregate, hundreds of smaller brokerages and retail traders that are working the stock to death.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, trying to remember back, but I thought that the only one left with a large of certificated stock was BR. If I am remembering correctly, Manatuck and SS held there shares in electronic form now, thus shorts would not show up for them ... correct?
    25 Sep 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: It doesn't matter if certificate or electronic form. Certificate introduces delays that *may* cause fails-to-deliver.

     

    Electronic *usually* doesn't *if* the shares are real and the proper actions are taking viz-a-vis entering and processing the orders and then getting the DTC-needed information processed correctly.

     

    But the short flags are still likely *unless* the market-maker has them registered in his portfolio *prior* to the sale, which is usually *not* the case.

     

    Think of this: if the shares were not already in the market-maker's (or broker's or ...) portfolio how would the DTCC, or one of it's subsidiaries, clear the transactions without the short flag? The short flag gives something to "net out" when the shares backing the original sell order arrive in the market-maker's portfolio. MM is short 100 today, tomorrow 100 shares come in, we match 'em up and MM is square and market-neutral.

     

    Normally, T+3 settlement, although I guess it could certainly be less with the electronic stuff we have these days.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Sep 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    As the first premise, I agree that normally there is T+3 settlement.

     

    Maybe I am fundamentally misunderstanding our prior discussions concerning how we were guesstimating the shares that were left in certificated form that still needed to flow into the market.

     

    When we last analyzed this topic on the board, I thought that we had concluded that the large amount of daily shorts were likely coming from one of the large legacy holders (BR, MH, SS, Q) and that they were turning up in daily shorts b/c of the time lag between going from certificate form to electronic form.

     

    If they are already in electronic form, then generally they are in street name at a brokerage and short flag would not be likely, right? I thought that was how JP was getting his estimates of what the big sellers may have left.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Manny Hill---sounds like JP said their shares would still appear on the FINRA short reports, even though they were converted to street name in 6/2010, but I'm not 100% sure, because when I asked JP recently he seemed to say yes but didn't explicitly say that. SS---unlikely, as since they sold all their private placement shares by YE 2011, to get legended stock again they would have had to buy private placement shares from another holder. Could happen, but rare in my experience.

     

    Confusing, but JP and HTL seem to disagree on what the FINRA short shares represent, at least for a single day or so. But over longer periods of time it sounds like JP and HTL agree that they reliably represent traditional short selling (essentially zero for AXPW per the twice monthly short position reports), private placement sales, and a smattering of immaterial things. Therefore, private placement shares sold. If not, then we actually have no idea how many private placement shares are left.
    26 Sep 2012, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: JP matched daily short sales from back in 2010 going forward and found a strong correlation between reported sales, by those reporting, and the short sales activity.

     

    That began in a period of low activity. It was and is reasonable to draw the conclusion JP draws ... up to some undetermined time.

     

    As time passed and volume increased, my feeling is that correlation has decreased.

     

    *Some* confirmation of the certificate issue might be determined by examination of the fails-to-deliver. But John felt it wasn't necessary due to the strong shorts correlation. The time when those *might* have been useful, *if* the shorts didn't correlate so well, has passed IMO, except for Quercus shares ATM.

     

    But I still have the data if it's ever needed (that reminds me - I need more disk space ... and "desk" space too :-)) ).

     

    Anyway, because of the wider distribution of the stock now (my guess), higher trading volumes and several larger holders being in electronic form, the "normal" short sales behavior can be expected and has been observed by me (my assessment).

     

    "Normal" is a word that is, of course, quite imprecise. So, if you name a couple of equities that have good volume, I'll run some quick reports and you can see that AXPW now looks a lot like them. Pick ones without certificate issues.

     

    Here's one for September: CPST (excluding BATS transactions which have changed their format). There are no certificates involved at all.

     

    24.07% 27.05% 28.65% 16.55% 44.98% 32.95% 36.69% 24.60% 41.16% 43.37% 41.90% 23.99% 54.16% 45.41% 39.16% 46.55%

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Alo Paris, me escuchan?
    I want to know how is the feeling with AXION POWER in the first day?
    I hope the answer tomorrow morning before Markets open!!!
    Carlos

     

    S.O.S.: I want a buy more. Urgente please!!!
    25 Sep 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Bloomberg says there have been 1200 Tesla cancellations in the last quarter. http://bloom.bg/SQsh4V
    25 Sep 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29654) | Send Message
     
    MY ELBC PRESENTATION LINK:

     

    http://bit.ly/P4bmLu

     

    As is usually the case with these things I got a bit off script but I made most of my key points and the message was well received.
    26 Sep 2012, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    John, Congratulations. That was an excellent presentation.

     

    I think, for people that have followed you for some time, many of the points you've made in part over a number of your articles is pulled together in this presentation. It's a fine addition for an audience that far too often is focused on a finite piece of a sector and not the broader implications of the work they are doing. Bravo.
    26 Sep 2012, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. I knew much of what was in it already, but that was only because I've followed JP's work for some time now. I've already emailed the presentation to several people because it's such a great overview of points he's tried to hit home for quite a while now.
    26 Sep 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    iindelco:
    I agree. Very good, good. Excellent vocalization and pronunciation. Good voice.
    Have a good day here & in Paris.
    Carlos
    26 Sep 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Excellent work John.
    Pulling together thoughts from years of work into a 20 minute presentation had to be a daunting task.

     

    I often forget how informed I am on the basics of clean-tech revolution because of your blog. Amazing how it still needs to be taught to people actually running the battery industry.
    26 Sep 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » John: If no objection is offered, the next concentrator will highlight and link to your talk.

     

    APH
    26 Sep 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29654) | Send Message
     
    No objection from me APH. I'm not sure whether I'll be able to pull together much in the way of text to go with the links, but I put it up for the troops and several of the points I made to the ELBC were ones that haven't truly been tied together before.

     

    You might also want to correlate thoughts from Brishwain who's been meeting and talking to a lot of people.
    26 Sep 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good thought about tying Brish's stuff in. I'll add a link directly to his comment so no mangling occurs.

     

    APH
    26 Sep 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    Well done.
    27 Sep 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    As JP pointed out already - the DCA workshop was full of technicality. Ford's stop-start guru's presentation was most relevant, but was still a very basic review for even a novice axionista. His comments included that there are 5 stop-start battery options:
    1. FLA - concluded that their research showed that this didnt work for very long
    2. AGM - that it worked longer than FLA but not by much
    3. Lith Ion and nickel hydrate - works much better but too expensive
    4. the much larger battery system (48 amps) - also an expensive and not a likely solution except for large commercial applications
    5. the 2 battery system (but didnt mention PbC by name) - that this worked but that it was a more expensive solution (vs FLA and AGM). He also stated that 'the future will include rolling stop-start and that this will require a 2nd storage device' and also that 'the 2 battery system is much more likely to be adopted over lith Ion or nickle hydrate.'

     

    Had dinner with Enders and JP last night - Enders made clear that there are many auto OEMs that they are talking to that are looking at going the 2 battery system route now/in the near future.

     

    More later.

     

    Brian
    26 Sep 2012, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Brian
    Did Enders give you a reason what is holding back the 2 battery system solution? Bean counters??? More testing is required???
    sb
    26 Sep 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Brian, Thanks so much for the notes from the DCA workshop. It's great to hear from a large manufacturer their perspective on the direction they think the market is going in and that it's the direction supported by the material gathered and discussions on this board.

     

    Great notes and very much appreciated.
    26 Sep 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    definitely the bean counters - ford rep made clear that as of now they dont want to pay anymore than they are now for LA batteries - so they are essentially using FLA with an "additive" and that has 3X better performance. Per the ford rep it was better than LA, sufficient to satisfy the legal requirements and didn't cost them any addl $ so they were happy with it for now. The irony is that notwithstanding this he spent his whole presentation essentially showing how pathetic the SS performance was out of these batteries. Also should point out that this was a ford europe rep and which was not the same as Ford USA.
    26 Sep 2012, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Brish: Thanks for the update. Mixed comments, bean counters vs. real-world demands. Nothing new in that I guess. Let's hope that counting beans eventually carries less weight than real-world demands.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    That's informative, Brish. I suppose inndelco had a good point in another comment he made when he eluded to something similar to this.
    26 Sep 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29654) | Send Message
     
    The Ford guy was really funny in our conversation with him. While they know all about the problem, Ford Europe is still taking a very short term view and desperately wants to stay in the sub-$100 range on their starter batteries. At this point their calculus seems to be "if X percent of our owners make warranty claims the repairs will cost us $Y where going to a more expensive battery will cost us $Z."
    26 Sep 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    John: LoL! What jumped to mind was the "lawsuits and legal fees are X vs. preventing them is Y ...", "just a cost of doing business".

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Well its not funny haha. More funny like, you have got to be kidding.

     

    The truly amazing part is the total lack of "impact on society" thinking.
    There is a true cost to the environment, gas prices, and consumer confidence when companies look at these issues. Not a bean counters way of looking at it.
    26 Sep 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Until the investor treats such forward-looking companies differently, the companies will not change behavior. And in this ADD market with the losses so many have suffered and will yet suffer, not much chance of change.

     

    When you get right down to it, it's the investment environment that prevents corporations from adopting a more society-centric view if many (most?) cases.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    You are correct in what you say, HHT. But a true leader of a corporation can set the vision for the company. That CEO can demand that all facets be explored and factored into the decision process. The shareholders can buy or sell. If in the long term the company makes money the shareholders will be there. Toyota didn't produce the Prius because it was a moneymaker. It did it for the future. For the long run.

     

    Ford, making a lousy S/S with the knowledge it is lousy, is simply a bad business decision process. It might be profitable in the short term. But nevertheless, a bad process.
    26 Sep 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4449) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... That is mildly funny and deeply sad that, after all these years, the "Pinto" mentality still rules at Ford.
    26 Sep 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for taking time to fill us in.
    27 Sep 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    that's the game big 5 plays, they dont want to pay more for a better battery. As always...the solution can be found in the middle!
    26 Sep 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    As we have information filtering in from Paris I want to touch on a subject that seems to have been forgotten.

     

    All of us as shareholders have believed that the PbC is the best thing since sliced bread for the stop-start market. And it is. But it is not the best product for the Micro-hybrid market. Its true benefit comes in its ability to handle the terrific accessory loads being generated by modern electronics PLUS the ability to accept regenerative braking.
    Of course the PbC is a fine product for the micro hybrid but it is to expensive ( just as the Ford rep stated to Brian). The market that will come to the PbC is the higher end S/S ( BMW type) or the two battery system. That market is the upper end ( top 20%) of the S/S market. JP has explained this many times and shown us pie charts that have hit us in the face. The only fact that could change this scenario is a regulatory ruling or warranty claim that mandates that the S/S system work at all times. The Ford rep is simply re-stating to Brian that which we already knew.

     

    The other automotive market for the PbC is the mild hybrid (GM) with full regenerative braking. This market is still in testing to see if the PbC can be competitive with other battery types. It is not the largest hybrid segment yet, but with Toyota's announcement that 12 different model hybrids will be produced by 2015 , it is obvious that it is coming. Having thought endlessly about this I finally decided that yes, Toyota might be our Asian partner, and can use the PbC instead of their own Ni-Cad battery, because the PbC is much cheaper. Why would Toyota use up a scarce resource when they can use lead for the cheaper cars.

     

    I only bring this subject up because sometimes I feel our group forgets that a $250 battery (PbC) is twice the cost of an AGM. To a manufacturer making millions of cars, that is a boatload of money difference. Our day will come. Not in the first round of micro hybrids produced but a lions share by the time 2015-2016 roll around.

     

    In the meantime JP is out plugging along telling the industry that
    1) warranty claims will be coming
    2) regulators of pollution devices will be coming
    3) cooperation among manufactures will be needed. ( Hmmm,)
    4) Lead acid batteries will be here for a long long time

     

    Just wanted to reiterate what we all know but hate to admit. Axions time is coming. Patience is a virtue. Waiting is a Pain in the A$$.
    26 Sep 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    "I only bring this subject up because sometimes I feel our group forgets that a $250 battery (PbC) is twice the cost of an AGM. To a manufacturer making millions of cars, that is a boatload of money difference."

     

    That $125 battery differential cost does become large indeed on high volumes, but easily passed on to consumers and more than recovered if its use reduces cost of ownership and/or inconvenience factors. If the PbC can enable S/S implementations yielding 10% fuel savings versus 5% in a vehicle typically driven 15K miles per year achieving 30 mpg (500 gals/yr), the fuel savings would recover additional battery cost in less than a year with gasoline at $4/gal. Longer service life of the PbC would also reduce battery replacement costs. The "cost problem" must include higher costs on other integrated system components in addition to battery costs.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I agree with your analysis. If I remember correctly a S/S system for a micro-hybrid was suppose to be about $1,000. Ender Dickerson's comments about the PbC possibly allowing the use of a smaller ( less expensive) alternator might help with the cost issue.

     

    No matter what we think is best the manufacturers have to believe the product will sell more cars or have the same profit margin as previously made cars.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: IIRC, Ford was adding $7xx to the base? I assume that assumed a small number of takers and included *some* small profit as well.

     

    If it became widely adopted such that amortization over a large number of units was possible, cost could come down quite a bit.

     

    Regardless, I believe in the long-term, reality of regulation will make it standard equipment which the manufacturers will be able to, for a short while, turn into PR about how much they will save their customers with this "new" technology which "Ford helped to pioneer" (alluding to their joint effort with BMW. They can do this even if they are the last adopters.

     

    They won't mention how they delayed because of the beans.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (275) | Send Message
     
    In Europe the additional cost can be close to 0 !

     

    For the new micro car VW UP the price in Denmark for the consumer is the same with or without S/S+regenerative breaking ("blue motion").
    The reason is partly that the annual EU-requirement to km/liter is for the entire fleet that VW sells. So selling a car that has a mileage below the EU-limit allows VW to sell larger cars with a mileage that is above the limit.
    Also the car tax in Denmark is lower the more km/liter the car achieves.
    26 Sep 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Poul,
    Very interesting information. But to be accurate the cost is still $1,000. The price to the consumer is the same because of tax regulations and Cafe standards.
    I think we all agree that to those of us that understand the value of S/S it is a wonderful feature ( when using the PbC) for little money, when amortized over 5 years and including gas savings.
    26 Sep 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that data from sensible Europe, Poul.

     

    With the type of progressive taxes & regulations you describe, plus much higher costs for gasoline across the continent, they payback time on any additional costs for S/S has got to be mighty quick.
    26 Sep 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Ford currently adds $295 for their version of S/S

     

    http://bit.ly/Po8MRO
    26 Sep 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    The government subsidizes pure e-vehicles with big manufacturer loans and big rebates to the customers. Why no rebate to cover the battery cost for a start/stop system that actually works?
    26 Sep 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4449) | Send Message
     
    >FocalPointAnalytics ... Unless you can frame the reasoning into employment expansion or on-shoring of manufacturing I don't see your plea for such a subsidy going anywhere. The companies that would dominate & be involved are already established. Nothing "NEW" would be created.
    26 Sep 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, Thanks for the reminder. Well done!

     

    A pain you say? :))
    26 Sep 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    I argue that the rational for such incentives would be to reduce fuel consumption and pollution. Reduction of fuel consumption should be a national priority and an important part of an integrated energy policy that this country needs. I also argue that the provision of such incentives would create jobs related to everything start/stop.
    26 Sep 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: shows how good my memory was/is!

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Not enough flash, like Li-ion and (P/B)EVs have.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    No doubt that the mass implementation of S/S will reduce fuel consumption. Other beneficial side effects could also incur. But that can be argued for many businesses and many products. I believe both political parties feel that federal subsidies of products have ended now that the recession is showing some signs of recovery.
    26 Sep 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I agree HT, it is boring. But look at their return on all that flash.
    I also don’t see the flash selling to the consumers...
    26 Sep 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    "The Fusion is one of Ford's best-selling models and will be the first high-volume vehicle that Ford has put Auto Stop-Start into. They expect to see a lot of market feedback from this. While they do not expect that there will be maintenance or reliability issues with the new technology, which has been vetted in Europe for nearly a decade, they do want consumer feedback in terms of sales figures and comments.

     

    From there, Ford's Lew Echlin says, they'll begin rolling Auto Stop-Start out into other platforms quickly and expect it to be a standard feature akin to cruise control and air conditioning in the next decade."

     

    ...

     

    Unless you count the battery in the maintenance issues????!!!!

     

    Will the "market" demand better?
    26 Sep 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    FPA: "I also don’t see the flash selling to the consumers."

     

    I'm not sure, based on results and on-going behavior, that's one of their primary considerations.

     

    Hubris and all, ya' know?

     

    Remember that the vast majority of those in high office pursued that position because they know better than the rest of us. </deadpan>

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (504) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, I agree. However, I think Brian's note about the bean counters at Ford definitely wins my comment of the day award (and maybe comment of the month). Yes, we all assumed the car makers would have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the PbC (and remember the battery manufacturers are going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming by the auto OEMs) but this time we hear it (nearly) straight from the horses mouth, in a manner of speaking.
    26 Sep 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (504) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: I respectfully disagree. I don't think it will be easy to pass on the cost to consumers unless the fuel savings are quite substantial.

     

    That is, a Prius saves a lot of fuel so I believe that justifies a higher price in the mind of the consumer (enough to make the Prius more profitable than a Camry? I'm not so sure). But, passing on a $150 battery for 5% more fuel economy probably doesn't pass the significance test in my mind. $1-2k for 30% greater economy might depending on the model.
    26 Sep 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Lets make the assumption that a good S/S system saves about 10-12% of fuel usage. If memory serves that is a valid number. That is a system that always works. Not an AGM system. Also assuming a driver that is real city driving. Not the 5 second stops the EPA makes when it evaluates a car.
    a 12,000 mile per year driver. 75% city. Thats 9,000 city miles.
    Using 25 mpg = 360 gallons at $4= $1,440. Isn't math amazing.

     

    So a $1,000 system saving 10% has a seven year payback. That is so not good that its crazy for the manufacturers not to try and do it cheap. Get the consumer to hate the product and then sell them some snake oil. They are only doing this to meet the regulations. It will be difficult for them to use it to sell more cars.
    26 Sep 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, Yes but the upgraded system I think you are using for your assessment also saves money on the highway as well. Plus you can reduce the engine HP some because you're not running the generator when you're hard accelerating.

     

    Another few obvious points.

     

    -Now apply gas prices from Canada, European markets, Japan etc.

     

    -Not in the US regs yet but the mileage improvements are already mandated. Does this help bridge at some point?

     

    -Now try doing the calculations with the gas mileage of a full sized SUV. Or the annual mileage of a taxi. So is it an option initially?
    26 Sep 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2426) | Send Message
     
    All sounds good and I have no problem waiting until 2015. However how many rounds (and at what levels) will Axion have to raise for them to keep chugging that long? I wish we could get a bigger piece of those flooded batteries with electrolytes to help us keep things going without having to add another 30-50M shares to our outstanding count.
    26 Sep 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    "D-inv: I respectfully disagree. I don't think it will be easy to pass on the cost to consumers unless the fuel savings are quite substantial."

     

    I think you misread my comment which essentially noted that more than added battery cost must be behind any cost argument for not adopting the PbC in a S/S system. The added cost referenced was $125 and the cost savings indicated in the first year alone would be more than enough to recover the cost of the battery. If one also needs to recover a further $200 - $800 the pay back period extends considerably and pass through of the cost to consumers is more problematic. I can tell you this, I would pay $250 - $300 more for a Camry with a PbC S/S system much quicker than I would pay an additional $1-2K for a Prius. The Prius is a smaller vehicle and I doubt I could carry Grandma and three grandchildren in one.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7703) | Send Message
     
    "Lets make the assumption that a good S/S system saves about 10-12% of fuel usage. If memory serves that is a valid number. "

     

    I doubt it. Remember you have to look at fleetwide use, SS does almost nothing for highway mileage. You might see 10% in very heavy traffic, but average use will be far less, maybe 5% and might show up as around a 1 mpg improvement.
    29 Sep 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: "... but it is to expensive"

     

    But that's only due to an inability for certain parties to see beyond the end of their own nose (near-term cost and profit).

     

    From a higher altitude:
    - fuel savings alone offset the additional cost in short order;
    - including hidden costs would add further to the rate of amortization;
    - benefits to society as a whole far outweigh the concern with their "own nose";
    - waiting to be forced to "do the right thing" has associated costs;
    - the marketing message is all wrong if only the *parochial* bean-counter rules are considered.

     

    If the marketing-message was better-framed, the customer demand would bury the bean-counters.

     

    We have long-since passed the time when the improved marketing message should've been out there.

     

    Here's a case where reality leads, near-term, in the wrong direction while it will force, eventually, the right direction.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Having shown John's presentation to someone who knows nearly nothing about this whole story, I would add that John's points about recyclability make the PbC and LABs stand out.

     

    Returning to the conversation about marketing & public relations...
    The PbC Recyclable Battery Solution makes sense.
    26 Sep 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    "But that's only due to an inability for certain parties to see beyond the end of their own nose (near-term cost and profit)."

     

    I totally agree with you that purchasing one PbC might very well be cheaper for a manufacturer, in the long run, than three AGM batteries. And I believe most manufacturers would agree IF the S/S movement was a consumer led request instead of a CAFE standards request. But they feel forced and are just doing the minimum to get by.

     

    I remember when seat belts were optional. Manufacturers committed to quality and safety ( Toyota and Honda) came out and said they would be standard equipment, not optional. Others had to follow after government regulators demanded that they do so.

     

    If they won't put in seat belts due to cost what chance does a battery have?
    26 Sep 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: "If they won't put in seat belts due to cost what chance does a battery have? "

     

    Too true. But don't forget that back then the consumer didn't want them either. Many believed that only race drivers benefitted and stories made the rounds about folks killed because they were wearing them while the folks in the car not buckled in survived.

     

    There is the possibility that the folks running those outfits are now more enlightened. And consumers too, albeit spurred by their wallets. Maybe not much possibility, but ...

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Once a person has an opportunity to learn about the entire clean-tech revolution they will almost always lean toward using real recyclable materials. But I don't see how the PbC could be marketed to manufacturers as a green product. Battery manufacturers and car manufacturers already know the difference.
    Now a retail product like the home PowerCube could use this type of promotion. In fact I believe it is a RoseWater mantra. The Home Cube is 99% recyclable.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4449) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist ... I love the seatbelt analogy to explain the resistance to change the auto industry (and most others) exhibit. I remember back in the 1960's or early 70's listening to a Senate hearing where a GM(?) exec complained that the $15 addition to add seatbelts meant the success or failure of the entire model line. I thought that about the most stupid utterance I'd ever heard. I thought they made perfect sense for very little cost but it still took me 15 more years to actually use them on a regular basis.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: I wouldn't market-it as green tech to consumers (and with the now-known economic failings in many of those areas, maybe not anybody).

     

    I would market it as wallet tech. Not only gasoline, but engine wear and tear: longer internals life at the small cost of greater wear and tear on easily-replaced relatively less-expensive parts, fewer oil & filter changes changes, ...

     

    And the last argument would touch on the environmental, health and other long-term benefits. But those would be just "also items".

     

    In a nation of declining real wages and rising living costs, the economic argument is the only one that will carry much weight for the *mass* market.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    HTL: "There is the possibility that the folks running those outfits are now more enlightened."

     

    I would believe that those in charge today are the product of a corporate culture. I have seen no change in American Auto manufacturers. ( For example EVs with Lithium batteries not properly tested). Whereas I see the same corporate culture coming out of Japan that I saw years ago. Willing to change, willing to put the customer first, willing to make things better.

     

    Does any American Manufacturer have 12 hybrid models coming out, even though it is the future of the ICE vehicle?
    26 Sep 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2671) | Send Message
     
    Yet, regarding a number of the above comments, Steve Jobs supposedly decided to change the i device screen from plastic to glass ONE WEEK before coming to market, and did it. That was Jobs driven. Not many CEO's do such things.

     

    If the PbC is basically a drop-in replacement, why tip your hand, especially if there are several reasons you may not yet be ready to do so.

     

    And by the way, best I know, the i device glass screen was not a deal maker. Nor the plastic a deal breaker (except to Jobs who really cared and could make it happen regardless of the resistance which of course he squashed). Automobile mfgr's are different.
    26 Sep 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Don't forget a Corvette Stingray w/327/396 went for around ~$3K(?), maybe that $15 was GM's "bread and butter"! ;-))

     

    Seriously, I used seat belts right away. My best friend and I were notorious hot-rodders and one day I looked at him and said "Ya' know, the way we drive it's stupidity to not wear our seat belts". Miracle # 2 is he agreed.

     

    I have worn them ever since.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, you could be right about the future. But as investors we have heard of something called "being too early". I suppose it applies to manufacturers too. If they don't have, or are unable to create, customer demand for it .,.

     

    Not defending, just giving benefit of the doubt as it's not been long since everybody and his brother was buying big ol' SUVs.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4449) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... " ... it's not been long since everybody and his brother was buying big ol' SUVs. " .... ???? You mean "THEY" stopped buying them? From the seat of my Tercel, I spent a lot of time eye-level with license plates. I've not noticed this trend to which you speak but would welcome the improved view.
    26 Sep 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Touche! And Lol!

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    HTL - Part of the challenge for cost is externalities and imperfect information.

     

    If the EPA testing cycle does not show a mpg improvement, there is no perceived advantage to the consumer. If there is no perceived advantage, it is waste of money to both the manufacturer and consumer.

     

    The manufacturer does not care about fuel consumption because the consumer pays for fuel. Whether the technology actually, in the real world, save gasoline is totally irrelevant to the manufacturer.

     

    The consumer is almost entirely dependent on EPA ratings, which are political numbers.
    26 Sep 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17431) | Send Message
     
    Rick: True. But I do buy into John's thesis that the regulators will eventually recognize that they need to add "longevity" to the current formulas (in Europe) and our regulators will modify their testing regime to be closer to reality. I base this latter assumption on history - recall that when mileage ratings first appeared they were so far off-base as to become laughable. Eventually that knowledge caused changes in the process to result in closer to real averages that might be obtained.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Sep 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    I know that there a large number of different tests focused on testing the batteries ...

     

    Is there some type of test that the EPA could shift to in order to accurately document the MPG improvement? How do they test now?
    26 Sep 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, the EPA could/should certainly change the test.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NRpLPb = dynamotors, never real roads.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NRpOdK - notice on the "City" schedule, most of the "stops" are about 1 or 2 seconds long. None are 1 minute long. S/S does not have a chance.

     

    Only the "Air Conditioning" has a few stops.

     

    "Note: EPA has established testing criteria for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids that are slightly different than those for conventional vehicles." Politics, anyones?
    26 Sep 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8948) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Seems timely so I'll use your post to insert this link for the Canadian testing that was done on the "BMW 118d Diesel Start-Stop Technology"

     

    http://bit.ly/MLODlK

     

    If I recall correctly it also gives some data on what the various government regulators drive cycles would yield for SS improvement.
    26 Sep 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info, Rick and Tim,

     

    Anybody care to submit a comment to DOE on fuel economy standards?

     

    To submit comments or questions about fueleconomy.gov
    Email comments/questions to http://1.usa.gov/QV37TK.
    26 Sep 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps we should watch the BMW EfficientDynamics marketing campaign. If a major like them were to spell it out in advertising that they're better, even if the EPA doesn't recognize it, it could exert pressure directly and indirectly on the EPA to step up their game.

     

    They, or someone like them, would also have the $$ for lobbying efforts as well. I could imagine some Congress-Critter, getting sick of their 10% approval ratings, deciding to make a name for themselves by taking on this issue.

     

    Maybe one from Pennsylvania? :-)

     

    If we can have Congressional hearings on Steroids in Baseball, maybe we could squeeze this in ... related to reduced energy usage if nothing else.
    26 Sep 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, do you know what type of battery was used to get the 10% and 12% fuel savings?
    26 Sep 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor