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  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Did I make first?
    4 Oct 2012, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    Deliberately first, and only wish I had something astounding to say.

     

    Sorry.
    4 Oct 2012, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    That's a true first, a time stamp tie!

     

    Two gold stars today because of the photo finish.
    4 Oct 2012, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    Balls. If only I hadn't had that sip of coffee before I clicked the Reply button.
    4 Oct 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    I just got back in from work. My internet was slow this morning due to rain. I have satellite internet. JP actually got first at the end of the previous concentrator at 6:34.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    LMAO, birdman.... funniest comment in a while!

     

    Cheers.
    4 Oct 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    OR, birdman's was funny but I doubt you have made it down to springer's "Ccccrrazie Nicky's Nite-Mart"
    4 Oct 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    jak: no, not yet anyway....
    4 Oct 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    After watching the old and new trolls try and dominate JPs articles on SA, I wanted to give a shout out to APH for the vigilance on these concentrators. As one who reads every comment, I find it difficult to get through lengthy uneducated post concerning technical nonsense.

     

    It is the fact that these concentrators are filled with real discussion that makes owning Axion during this downturn, palatable.
    4 Oct 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    I am wondering if mathematics work differently for EVangelicals.
    4 Oct 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    Magicmatics?
    4 Oct 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I heard Congress wants to repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Could be, JP, but it would be more like them to simply exclude themselves from having to obey them...
    4 Oct 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    When we were trying to justify an equipment purchase our CEO would sometimes accuse us of "torturing the numbers until they confess" I wonder if the EVangelicals are doing the same thing?

     

    Axionista confession time - after swearing I wouldn't buy any more I picked up 11K in the last two weeks. Step away from the mouse has new meaning for me these days....help me please....
    4 Oct 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    You aren't alone, Charlieburg. After stating I was at my limit with Axion, I doubled my position in the past 2 weeks as well. Sub .30 was just too good to pass up and it's criminal the stock was priced as such.

     

    Considering what I've been reading on these concentrators and personally knowing people who don't even post here who have doubled or even tripled positions over the past couple of weeks, most of which all have intentions of being in it for the long haul, makes me think that a whole lot of stock is being locked up.
    4 Oct 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I doubled up at 30c too...
    4 Oct 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    JP made a comment in the last concentrator about how none of us will be complaining about being overweight when the price starts moving. (not a quote but something like that) He is probably right. I bought a little early on and have averaged down for a while. Breakeven is about .63 cents for me.

     

    Too many good things happening with AXPW, too much promise for the future! I am happy to hold while this all develops! Thanks everyone for the great dialogue and information!
    4 Oct 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I know it's only premkt, but I like it, like it, yes I do: NITE has lifted their 30 cents ask. In fact, they're the best bid at 31 cents. But EGRO is right by them at the 31.01 cent ask.

     

    Update: two 50k blocks traded so far: 1st at 31, 2nd at 30.5. Back to 30 cent ask now.
    4 Oct 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Most of the morning NITE mm was top of the heap on bid and ask, $0.299/$0.30. I said to my self they were doing something here.

     

    Sure enough, 9:00 the bid, and shortly thereafter, the ask goes away leaving Citadel top of bid at $0.295. Then NITE comes back at $0.305 on bid and briefly $0.30 ask (lasted about 45 seconds?).

     

    Now, NITE $0.31 bid EGRO $0.315 ask.

     

    If we have either duelling market-makers (trying to do covering buys, satisfy larger sell orders, larger buy orders, ...) could shape up as an interesting day.

     

    If volume comes in, these guys might get frenetic.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Pre-market lure put in the water: $0.31 500 shares trade.
    4 Oct 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Interesting? Pre-market and opening mini-flurry, 102,750, included 2x50K $0.31/$0.305. Short sales 10/2 103,751.

     

    Bid/ask immediately moves to $0.2965/$0.30. Now bid $0.297.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    HTL ... are your volume stats adding up?

     

    My times and sale shows 4 different 50K blocks, 2 at .305 an 2 at .31
    (these 2 led off at 8:30:08 CDT)

     

    but my volume says 102,750 ???

     

    Big blast right at 8:30 ... and the T&S are out of time order as well ... last being 8:30:50 and 8:30:51 at .305

     

    Tres weird.
    4 Oct 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    It's not just you, WTB, my volume stats aren't adding up either.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: I don't know what platforms use for software - I have to watch mine (ETrade Pro) as it's buggy as $h*t. But the Time & Sales, Level II agree with what I posted.

     

    But that's not good enough - I also use ADVFN "Trades" screen since I don't trust ETrade platform any more.

     

    It shows matches to my spreadsheet, populated manually from the ETP panels.

     

    09:30:50 AM 50000 $0.3050 "buy"
    09:30:16 AM 2000 $0.3100 "sell"
    09:30:12 AM 250 $0.3100 "sell"
    09:30:08 AM 50000 $0.3100 "sell"
    09:26:16 AM 500 $0.3100 "sell"

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Looks like my platform (thinkorswim via TD/Ameritrade) is double posting every trade for some reason.

     

    Here's what otcbb.com says:

     

    $0.3000 1,000 OTO 09:47:54
    $0.3050 50,000 OTO 09:30:50
    $0.3100 2,000 OTO 09:30:16
    $0.3100 250 OTO 09:30:12
    $0.3100 50,000 OTO 09:30:08
    $0.3100 500 OTO 09:26:16
    4 Oct 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I use TD Ameritrade's "Command Center" and started getting the double T&S data several months ago. Stumbled into this work-around: 1) close all applications (log off SA if logged on) then delete the Java cache (Control Panel, Java, Settings, Delete Files, Ok), and 2) don't log into SA before opening CC, only after.

     

    Still have some remaining bugs, not sure of the source, e.g., Level II's best bid and ask does not always = the Watch List prices, and if ARCA is the best ask, their price lingers for hours sometimes.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Now we are up to $.305 but NITE is sitting there too! Hopefully their 5K offer is really 5k!
    4 Oct 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    RBrun---NITE usually moves in 1/2 cent increments, on the ask side.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "Hopefully their 5K offer is really 5k! "

     

    LoL! In your dreams! :-))

     

    When it doesn't show 5K multiples, *then* you can believe them ... briefly.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Mr.I

     

    I agree but it seemed to me that they have been sitting on $.30 with many a share for a very long time! Of course, it could just be me!

     

    357
    4 Oct 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    RB---they were, which is why I posted their asking price change up this morning. Also nice to see EGRO moved up off of 30 cents yesterday. Their affiliate was one of the two placement agents for the 2/3/2012 offering, thus they are a threat of deep supply. So it's nice to not see that.

     

    Also, FANC is nowhere near the best ask now. On the other hand, we still have a lot of supply coming from some goof(s) thru ATDF. Just PM one of the deep-pocketed investors here, do a cross trade and be done with it.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    All of the February 1st investors paid $.35 per share. For a few weeks after that offering the price stabilized in the $.42 range until one of the big uglies started pushing and shoving at the pay window. I have a tough time worrying that the February 1st investors will be eager to sell at a loss, or for that matter settle for a 20% gain, after nine months. Flipping out in a week or two is a great strategy if you can implement it. It loses its allure with time.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    John, I have a few deep pocket friends who often get in on ipos and placements. Their broker usually asks they stick for 30 days but after that these guys normally take quick profits.

     

    On the few times I've seen them get stuck in things that went straight down - I've watched them hold for months/years only to bail once they got close to even again (and or small loss/profit).

     

    Should we be factoring in that there will be some percentage of the offering investors who at this point are looking to get out even and/or between 30-40 cents so they can get back to their normal flipping game? Is it likely that there could be a few Million shares or more of these types of trades that we need to eat through assuming they sell their position slowly the way Quercus does?

     

    I'd love to see the mud crack before Halloween but I know people do funny things like sell/hold when they should buy more.
    5 Oct 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    IPOs are in a class by themselves because total trading volume in the first few weeks after a deal is usually several times the number of shares sold in the deal. Once you get away from the IPO market, the liquidity picture changes drastically.

     

    Since every deal is different, it's hard to predict how a particular group of investors will behave. Therefore I tell clients that they should mentally divide every offering in quarters and assume that:

     

    One-quarter of their investors will want to exit ASAP;
    One-quarter of their investors will want to exit in one year;
    One-quarter of their investors will want to exit in two years; and
    One-quarter of their investors will swing for the fences.

     

    Axion had a solid block of time between February 1 and mid-May where the investors who wanted an ASAP out for a 20% gain had their chance.

     

    Once the price fell below $.35, I have to believe that the two principal sources of volume were (a) the big uglies from 2009 and earlier, and (b) retail holders who got spooked by the price declines.

     

    Since May 1st, the FINRA short data leads me to believe that the big uglies as a group have accounted for 60% of all sell-side activity and retail types have accounted for the balance. If we see a relatively sharp recovery into the $.40s as Quercus drops out and other big positions run dry, the upward momentum will usually give people who might have wanted to sell reason to hold off a bit and see what happens.

     

    The 20% up and out strategy works fabulously if you can turn your cash several times a year. When you have to wait for 9 months before turning your cash, 20% doesn't look anywhere near as attractive.

     

    The huge unknown in my world right now comes from the sheer mass of the supply and demand imbalance that existed for the last two and a half years. I've been through the drill with a couple million sloppy shares, but Axion's problem was closer to 57 million by the time you include the 2009 investors, Quercus and a couple other legacy holders. If my earlier experiences were squirrel monkeys, the Axion experience will be a gorilla and while I expect similar behavior, I've never seen a gorilla before.
    5 Oct 2012, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I

     

    I am not able to validate anything but for some strange reason I am starting to feel a bit optimistic that the pressure has shifted from the top to the bottom side up!

     

    My charts are showing a fresh cross and I am hoping that it can turn enough to get confirmation!

     

    357
    4 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but it's a week and a half late which makes me feel like a very poor prophet.
    4 Oct 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Cheer up Poor Prophet, we all have the faith, what's a week and a half amongst friends! Besides, who involved in this story hasn't the patience? Actually if you can be within a few months of being correct I will give you an A+ and a Gold Star!

     

    357
    4 Oct 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    John: it won't be long and you won't be as "poor" a prophet as today. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It's beginning to look like the mud at the bottom of the willing sellers barrel is cracking, but it's not over till the fat lady sings. It is gratifying, however, to see my running Quercus estimate down to 1% of their original position.
    4 Oct 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    Dear Sir,
    I am interested in purchasing Axion stock at .30 cents. Would you be able to tell me where I might possibly find some at that price?
    4 Oct 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Come on down to crazy Nicky's NITE-Mart where you'll always get the lowest prices undercutting each other...
    4 Oct 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Silver back gorilla enters room.........

     

    DENSO announces Lithium-ion battery pack to improve fuel efficiency in vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/Qw2a4W

     

    Come on Vani, Kick-em in the .............
    4 Oct 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    It appears that automotive component manufacturers are starting to engineer refinements into their systems specifically designed to reduce hotel loads when the engine is turned off. For example that Cold Storage (CS) Evaporator.... what are the implications of that trend with respect to the batteries responsible for supporting the hotel loads?
    4 Oct 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Yep, All the tricks that apply to the grid apply to the millions of micro grids on wheels.

     

    But this doesn't change the game. It makes it a little more manageable. Save a penny here save a penny there. In effect the batteries should be able to get just a little smaller or last just a little longer based on some of these improvements. But not wholly if they have certain underlying weaknesses. Like sitting at PSOC as an example. Or if they can't accept all the energy that makes sense during the coasting & stop portions of the cycle. You still have to look at all these factors to choose the best (price/performance) solution. Oh, and meet the various regs in different regions.

     

    For me this is just another sign that the Asians are not buying into the AMG solution as it's being rolled out in Europe. I wonder why?
    4 Oct 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    FPA: This trend has a counter trend it is fighting which is even more powerful... The cars are getting more and more electronic load in the form of GPS, audio, video, safety, and accessories each year.

     

    Any efficiencies gained are likely to be more than offset by additional demands.

     

    One way to gauge the trend is to watch the more successful ad campaigns. Are the major manufacturers spending billions talking about the gee-whiz gadgets, or boring stuff like how the transmission works or the new engine controls save .1mpg?

     

    People have been successfully conditioned to view automobiles as consumer appliances, and we can expect that they will be built to follow that lead.
    4 Oct 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) through 13:11
    # Trds: 62, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 238417, AvTrSz: 3845
    Min. Pr: 0.2971, Max Pr: 0.3100, ,VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3033
    # Buys, Shares: 19 145100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3018
    # Sells, Shares: 9 93317, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3056
    # Unkn, Shares: 34 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.55:1 (60.9% "buys")

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Toyota's announcement is making em think.

     

    EV Market Uncertainties Cause Toyota And Others To Slow Down …

     

    http://bit.ly/RDZB2i
    4 Oct 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    The letter to shareholders looks like a blatant pump to me, trying to boost pps in advance of a raise.

     

    Nothing personal against AXPW, in which I am heavily invested. You just see run-ups into a raise all the time.

     

    UL approval of the HUB would be good for pps, as would surprisingly good hub sales numbers in Q1 2013 (assuming UL come through soon).

     

    Solid news on any of Axion's other initiatives would be good, and of course making serious, reportable SS progress with a major auto manufacturer could bump us near or over a dollar overnight.

     

    A friend of mine bought AVII at premium a few years ago, held it down to 50 cents, held it through a 1:6 reverse split, held it through a name change to SRPT, and sold it yesterday for 43 dollars.

     

    If you have guts and believe in a company, the time to buy is when nobody wants anything to do with it.
    4 Oct 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Interesting story on SRPT/AVII... I hope your friend had a lot of shares.

     

    I don't think that letter was a pump. It was long and detailed. People who respond to pumps would have been gone by the 3rd paragraph... too much information.

     

    Most people in this room wanted to see more PR and clear communication. I viewed that letter as an effort to do just that while stating where the company is at and what the outlook is in a few particular areas of interest.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    He only had 4,000 shares of AVII, which became 666 shares of SRPT. Better than a sharp stick in the eye, but not a king's ransom either.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I wasn't a fan of the Shareholder letter. Its seemed forced and different for this mgmt team. I personally have a few problems with their communciation overall.

     

    Email announcements come from a person not the company such as Axion Power Investors Rep or something like that. I've probably deleted a few emails from them because of this. Second, for the average investor emails about Rosewater make no sense and seem pumpish. If you focus on Rosewater are you telling me its your growth engine in the future? If so why outsource it? Or is it not a large % of future revenues, if so why do I care.

     

    I'd prefer an Investor Presentation via Powerpoint than a letter that I could easily print and give to my friends. No sound, easier to attach and forward. Also, I'd get rid of the forced signup to listen to a conference call. People want to opt out of mail as they get too much so I'd bet the fact that they lose 30-50% of people going to listen/read before they get in the door. These are all little barriers to entry that add up, imo and its important. more eyes= more potential shareholders= higher pps = cheaper, better financing, etc.

     

    **********************...
    I also want to state that I owned a 500 shares of SRPT that I had bought last Friday. I share ideas with about 7 or 8 guys and one threw out the company last June/July at $3-4/share. He emailed us last Thursday reminding us that results would be out in a week-ish. I actually had placed a buy order on Tuesday night to buy in the AM as I thought I had more time but missed out.

     

    For others looking at this name, the company is a mixed bag. AVII had a bit of pump/fake Biotech scam but their move to Boston and the CEO from Celgene are very positive imo. Sold half that I had at $35 and letting the rest run.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    If that was intended as a pump it would have been one of the worst examples I've ever seen. If you want to see pump, visit Elon's blog.

     

    I wouldn't be surprised if Axion's counsel was a bit concerned that the active Concentrator readers might know more than the average street investor because we heard from Al Marshall who was invited to attend CEDIA by Rosewater and the general press coverage was limited.

     

    Since there's never any harm in leveling the playing field, that's the most logical rationale I can see.
    4 Oct 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    MrHolty: "If so why outsource it?"

     

    I don't understand this. Rosewater is marketing, which we know Axion is not currently suited for, and Axion does the "manufacturing" of the HUB.

     

    Did you mean something else?

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps he was referring to this:

     

    "In answer to anticipated questions about manufacturing capability, let me say that we can supply the short-term needs of RoseWater and its customers. And as for going forward, we have had very encouraging talks with one of the largest outsource supply manufacturers in the world. We made the first REH unit ourselves and have the in-house know-how, space and ability to continue on that path in the near term. We have a continuing dialog with smaller manufacturers, any one of which can satisfy our market requirements for the next 18 months. So whether we go to a large supplier now, or later, we feel our manufacturing plan is a solid one."
    4 Oct 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    BTW, that was an example of good new information in the letter.

     

    I also was appreciative of this line (while of course wishing for [as ever] a little more detail)"

     

    "the only hurdle we have to clear to begin selling and shipping in the U.S. is UL approval (http://www.ul.com), and we have been working on that, with others, for some time."

     

    (hmm ... was the word U.S. purposeful?)
    4 Oct 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: Ah! I was thinking short-term. In that case my answer to MrHolty's question would be that I'm guessing that it still doesn't fit with their long-term plans. Short-term to get started makes sense, but long-term less so IMO.

     

    Thanks.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    It was good communication. It lets current investors know they are de-risking with alternative sources of revenue away from the big whales as well as letting potential strategic partners know they can have a strategic piece of the pie now or later, but they are not going to be able to take them out whole-hog.
    4 Oct 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I started out in a "Job Shop" for a couple years. Great place to start in my chosen field because you wear many hats. I was responsible for designing schematics, panel/machine layouts for electrical controls and software.

     

    My point for bringing this up is that I know the construction side of what Axion is doing as an integrator. In the company I worked at we had an electrical shop that did what Axion is doing short term. I think it's good that they are doing a few of these initially to make sure they control quality and get the design right. They however are not really equipped to do this efficiently and I suspect that for their staff members this is not their #1 forte. As such they will not be the most efficient at doing this task if the number of sales start to increase as we hope. It's good that they are investigating alternate resources and shows they expect growth and are preparing for it so they can be not only efficient but can also get back to doing what they do best. They are not a machine shop.
    4 Oct 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Excellent. More detail than I would be able to consider.

     

    My education is on-going and I thank you,.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Let me clarify my post. Pump is harsh on my part. Nothing stated was not factual but it was such a departure from the norm that I felt like the previous poster of "Why now?" There have been other times to put this out. The only answer I could do for "why now?" is that they are negotiating future terms via debt/equity/strategic partnership" and that an increased shareprice might be valuable.

     

    I handed the letter to my wife who is interested in my, scratch that, OUR investment in AXPW as I thought the letter was helpful and would help Instead I spent more than 20 minutes explaining the relationship between Rosewater and AXPW.

     

    WT- This section is actually what bottered me the most. That line has to do with Rosewater, not Axion. The "we" is Rosewater not Axion as I don't believe Axion is the one going for UL certification.Axion is simply a supplier to Rosewater. While Rosewater's sale are helpful to Axion in that is provides sales, any profits of Rosewater do not flow back to Axion. The letter reads like the two are partners. Yes there is a mutual benefit and investors are related but AXPW will only get 20% of Rosewater's sales, $9k vs $45k.

     

    Jakurtz comments below are correct in that there is plan that should provide some dollars that will help on the path to CF break-even while still waiting on the two large markets but to a new investor its confusion how blurred the line between Axion and Rosewater is. That should have been the start of the letter, stating they were still whale hunting while not ignoring smaller markets which is where Rosewater comes in.

     

    Many may think i am quibbling here but I ask you to take that letter, hand it someone who know nothing or very little about Axion and ask them what the relationship between Rosewater and Axion is
    a) supplier b) JV c) one owns the other.
    4 Oct 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >mrholty ... Since Axion fabricated REH, "we" is appropriately used because it is the fabricator that is really on trial here for the UL certification. The component parts are already UL cert. The assemblage is what is up for the REH certification. I did like that Axion will do some REH work but hand it off to a fabricator as soon as possible. I do think you're quibbling a little because it was sent out as a "shareholder" communication. It's not unreasonable to think a shareholder know something about what they're holding.
    4 Oct 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "Personally, I wasn't a fan of the Shareholder letter. Its seemed forced and different for this mgmt team."

     

    Nor am I. One possible explanation for the letter could be that management was aware of a recent change toward negative tone of shareholder discussion on APCs and thought reiteration of business prospects might help stabilize sentiments ahead of the Q3 financial performance report. If that is the case, I grade their performance somewhere between an A and C- depending on the thoroughness of their business prospects review.
    4 Oct 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'll be the contrarian and say I think the letter was a tremendous improvement in communications. Axion has been quasi-secretive (mostly from lack of effort), yet is not truly stealth. The letter represents an initial effort to get the story out beyond technical conferences and white papers.

     

    The letter itself was not outstanding, but I applaud the effort made, and hope to see many more.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    I'll second your sentiment!
    5 Oct 2012, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I think every attempt to communicate is a good thing.
    5 Oct 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I'm on the glass is half full side. the letter was informative. It helped clear up some swirling rumors concerning the NS situation. I have to think it was there to help the shareholders.
    Any effort to help us is welcome by me.
    5 Oct 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Co-sign Rick and Futurist's comments.
    5 Oct 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    about 35/40 minutes until the charge toward a close above .31 begins...
    4 Oct 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I hope you're right Jon. Somebody else seems to be getting the idea that there isn't much competition on the sell side. When that message finally sinks in they may just get out of the way for a while and act like they care about getting the best price.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Well... in my opinion, holders and sellers alike lose if we don't close above .31 today. We can't find out what happens when we have 3 days up in a row if we don't string them together.

     

    [counterpoint being... its a win for bottom feeder buyers if we close below .30?... maybe... or maybe just consolidation... I don't know... tight price range today]
    4 Oct 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    sigh...

     

    looks like consolidation at best...

     

    too many elephants, not enough bullets... today... tomorrow's another day...
    4 Oct 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Jon, after a rise from $0.25-$0.26, we have to expect a "pause that refreshes".

     

    I've mentioned before that I think our dynamics have changed such that we have a broader base of participants and it will include short-term traders. I believe we are seeing this play out. Keep in mind 10/1's $0.2596 VWAP on ~543K. ~16% gain in a few days will be hard for many to resist.

     

    And I think this "pause that refreshes" plays well: as I mentioned before, if buying pressure was strong enough the market-makers wouldn't be able to push prices to levels making covering buys attractive. Today is 1.54:1 (60.7% "buys").

     

    Today met that criteria IMO.

     

    So this means more shares will "net out" at the DTCC and market-makers will not be long as many "cheap shares" coming in that they can sell ... "below market" ;)) (You shoulda' called me - I can get it for you wholesale!).

     

    So I expect high daily short sales today.

     

    As to price movement, we just need to give a few days (short-term consolidation) at least to see. I think we took around 280K of those short-term shares out today - how many remaining are long-term holders I can't guess.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL.

     

    Just pushing for a little more pop before I lose track of the Axion Power Concentrators while on the road from 12 October to 2 November.

     

    Hence, the fidgets...

     

    But, I concur that things are looking up...
    4 Oct 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I am hoping this could be considered the calm before the storm! The storm to the north that is!

     

    357
    4 Oct 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    For those of you watching ZBB, it seems they have been doing quite a bit of hiring lately.

     

    http://bit.ly/Rg8QDK

     

    P.S. I have not written on ZBB for awhile b/c I have not been able to get a firm grasp on when sales will materialize.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    I've followed ZBB on and off so I appreciate the update. Please don't stop.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Stephan,
    My reading of the last conference call for ZBB was that sales are ramping, the partners are working together, certifications are done.
    In accomplishing this the costs have gone up. Sales need to continue to develop and deliver.
    Sounds like another company we both like.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    It appears there many be several of us AXPW/ZBB folks that look forward to Stefan's updates...
    4 Oct 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    I like it when you share insights/thoughts on ZBB. So thanks!
    4 Oct 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I also follow KNDI but not as closely as the others. Love that they indeed will be delivering 5000 EVs by year end under their contract.
    Love that state grid and the governments are working toward being able to handle the additional 20,000 cars ordered. Love that other car companies wwill be forced to use the KNDI battery switching system, once it proves itself in the marketplace. Love that my shares are in the black, for a change.
    4 Oct 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Indy Power Systems gets a (fairly brief) mention:

     

    http://bit.ly/Rgi0Ag

     

    including this:

     

    "IPS also signed a letter of intent with a manufacturer that is worth $5 million annually."

     

    Us????

     

    Was a little confused on how they migrated here:
    http://bit.ly/SAmggM

     

    Guess they are clients of someone from there:
    http://www.cvihub.com
    http://bit.ly/Rgi0Am

     

    Having California representation probably a good thing ...

     

    For the curious, more of the list of presenters referenced in the article :
    http://bit.ly/SAmhBv
    4 Oct 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    wtb, Good links. I was looking through the links and on the link with the "Incubator client listings" I read the little blurb about IPS. I also looked at the other clients and wondered what W2 ENERGY was all about? I went to their web site and watched a very cool video about their WindWing and WaterWing products for harvesting energy. I didn't know the big wind turbines are only 5% efficient and they claim their WindWing is 40% to 60% efficient, WOW. Maybe a future investment but still private for now. Check it out at w2energygroup.com. Sorry no link, I'm on DSL here at work.

     

    I always thought I wanted a wind turbine to go with my 8 year old solar(4.2kw DC system, 26 160W panels, 3 strings, and 2 inverters) setup and now I want a REH to go with it when the Axion hits $10 or more. I will need to own a house again as well.

     

    Kent
    5 Oct 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    http://pjm.com~/media/about-pjm/news...

     

    Maybe PJM is moving a little faster.
    4 Oct 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, great catch, thanks. I should have bet you on the implementation date!--what do you know, right on schedule. Based on what TG has mentioned in a CC, this represents a major milestone in Axion's PC efforts.

     

    Your link didn't work all the way, so here is the full press release:

     

    PJM IMPLEMENTS INNOVATIVE PAY FOR PERFORMANCE MODEL FOR REGULATION SERVICE
    New market structure will attract new technologies to regulation service
    (Valley Forge, Pa. – Oct. 2, 2012) – PJM Interconnection yesterday successfully implemented its new Performance-Based Regulation rules, a means to align compensation with actual performance for resources that provide regulation service.

     

    Regulation service, a separate market from energy and capacity, corrects for short-term changes in electricity use that might affect the stability of the power system.

     

    “This new compensation structure creates greater incentive compensation for high performing existing resources—and incentive for development of new, fast responding technologies, such as batteries or flywheels, to participate in this market,” said Andrew L. Ott, senior vice president – PJM Markets. “Ultimately, as the actual performance of regulation providers is better matched with the amount of resources needed, the system should realize greater efficiency and savings.”

     

    PJM uses a variety of resources to meet frequency regulation needs. These resources differ in the speed in which they can increase and decrease their production, and differ in the accuracy of their response to the dispatch signal. Prior to this new structure, the regulation market did not distinguish between various levels of performance, and all resources were paid the same if they met minimum performance standards.

     

    PJM also implemented a structure for shortage pricing yesterday. Shortage pricing establishes new rules for setting prices when PJM is operating at or close to a shortage of operating reserves. Reserves are resources that are not supplying the system but are quickly available to provide energy if needed. PJM seeks to have enough energy reserves to handle the loss of the largest generating unit on the system at the time.

     

    PJM Interconnection, founded in 1927, ensures the reliability of the high-voltage electric power system serving 60 million people in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia. PJM coordinates and directs the operation of the region’s transmission grid, which includes 59,750 miles of transmission lines; administers a competitive wholesale electricity market; and plans regional transmission expansion improvements to maintain grid reliability and relieve congestion. Visit PJM at http://www.pjm.com.
    4 Oct 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Lets review what this development means.

     

    PJM is a very large power supplier that has been lobbying with the different utility commissions to be allowed to pay customers, if the customer can supply power to the grid. They have wanted to pay different rates to their customers depending on what the customer provides to them. One such service is frequency regulation. This takes a storage device that can cycle like crazy taking power in and dispensing it very quickly.
    PJM now has the legal authority to pay for that service.

     

    Several years ago a few executives from PJM started a company called Viridity Energy. Its purpose was to discover ways to accomplish frequency regulation and make money by being the middleman who buys and sells the energy through innovative software.
    Somewhere in this mix Viridity discovered that the PbC cycles like crazy and has been a booster of the PowerCube, ever since.
    Now that the business plan of PJM and Viridity have coincided with regulatory approval the PowerCube can be a very effective device. A sought after product, if the months of testing at the New Castle plant show that a PowerCube can pay for itself.

     

    My personal viewing of the PowerCube would indicate that it is a simple yet effective tool. I have not found one shred of comments that it will not be effective at this job. If the numbers crunch positive under these new rates, then a large market should open up for Axion. And that market actually uses the PbC battery for what it does best. Cycle like crazy.
    4 Oct 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    'Cycle like crazy' - I like that. The PbC is like Lance Armstrong on steroids. Oh wait, that's redundant.

     

    D
    4 Oct 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    That is good news. Been waiting for this. Thanks for the link.
    5 Oct 2012, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Great catch Stefan! Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Well, It looks like the Juniata shop/NSC knows the public is interested in their battery powered locomotive efforts and they are making sure those following their progress are aware of the timeline and efforts that have gone into the program. They've added historic links to the NS999 page to increase the visibility. I for one appreciate them adding the links because, in my mind, it shows that the program is still important to the organization. A worry some of us shared a little anxiety over, myself included.

     

    I'm starting to think the odds of the delay being associated with the grant application are pretty high.

     

    http://bit.ly/INYJCZ
    4 Oct 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    The last 4 posts are great news for us.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OGm2pd~/media/committees-gro...
    4 Oct 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Please ignore the last post. For some reason, I cannot get PJM documents urls to post properly.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Best chance is to go to https://bitly.com and shorten it, then post the resulting shorted URL
    4 Oct 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    You can also use http://tinyurl.com

     

    I think it's not the length, but the variable "aspx" stuff that cause the problem because of SA's software.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    A CSIRO chart for distant future energy storage tech. cost vs storage time. Interesting where they thing advanced lead acid will be relative to repurposed lithium ion batteries.

     

    In search of the battery holy grail

     

    http://bit.ly/OGoBre
    4 Oct 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    If AXPW goes to where I think its heading over the next few years, I'm buying a Rosewater Res Power Hub with Axion inside. I've been looking into solar for quite some time and getting lots of info from many of the contributors on these threads. Once I pull the trigger on solar, the Res Power Hub would be a nice fit, I think. However, I'm still in wait and see mode, as I continue to gather information.

     

    My bottom call is still holding... let a brotha' gloat why he still can!!!
    4 Oct 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    O.R. I for one can live with your gloating vs taking the right away. I wouldn't even mind you telling a story about how the stock used to be "WAY down there". lol
    4 Oct 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Here OR,

     

    http://bit.ly/Q0gGSP

     

    This article must have some Robo date update or something. But I like his targets if not his timing. :)
    5 Oct 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    The article states: ".....$6.30 or higher in a few years.

     

    Thanks for the link, iindelco. Having been a trader for quite some time, I've discovered the hardest thing to do is let your (winning) investment run to the upside (when you do find that proverbial "diamond in the rough").

     

    Providing that Axion becomes that type of stock, it will be interesting to gather around the "virtual internet fireplace" in a few years and see how many people sold too soon vs. how many people kept their investment through the ramp up.

     

    My point is that knowing when to sell a winner is tougher (for me anyway) than knowing when to sell a loser.
    5 Oct 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, When I search the site Climate Spectator for "Axion Power" I get a 2012 comment from one of their authors mentioning the Axion PowerCube.

     

    http://bit.ly/QKjgxR

     

    But when I go to the article it doesn't appear to be there.

     

    http://bit.ly/O981ie

     

    Anyway, The PowerCube was brought up in what appears to be a potential for replacing solely diesel generators with a combination of solar/diesel for micro grids. Oh, Most importantly by an author from OZ. Maybe that's why it appears to be gone! Toto ratted her/him out to CSIRO. ;)
    4 Oct 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    While I've been convinced for quite a while that we were getting to the bottom of the willing sellers barrel, I haven't really explained why I think that's the case. So I'll try to provide a quick summary.

     

    I focus heavily on the FINRA short data and outstanding shares that require a lawyer's opinion before they can be delivered to a buyer. At the beginning of the year I could identify about 18.4 million shares that fit into that category including Quercus (3.1 million) Blackrock (6.1 million) Manatuck Hill (7.2 million) and the Mega-C Trust shares (2.0 million).

     

    The only other potential sources were (a) individual 2009 investors who held for two years before throwing in the towel, and (b) 2012 investors who sold immediately after the February offering and didn't have their shares in deliverable form.

     

    Since January 1st, FINRA short sales have totaled 19.7 million shares. So unless there's been a huge change from historical patterns, we have to be at the mud line in the willing sellers barrel.

     

    The thing that's easy to overlook is the importance of even one big seller. For 2-1/2 years Quercus averaged 10% of daily volume in periods when it wasn't sidelined by regulation. If you focus on sell-side activity only, Quercus provided one out of every five shares traded. When you add in the other big uglies, the FINRA data suggests that they've collectively provided three out of every five shares traded. As their individual barrels run dry, a market that's gotten used to buying five shares will only have two shares available until the price moves high enough to entice Axionistas who bought over the last 2-1/2 years.

     

    I like that dynamic.
    5 Oct 2012, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    The last line pretty much dispels the idea that Axion is a pumper (as mentioned earlier about the recent pr). Most companies would squeeze this report for all it's worth. However, being under the radar is good for those of us who still are filling our bellies and/or averaging down. =)

     

    http://bit.ly/Rdk1NC

     

    "Attempts to reach Thomas Granville, Axion’s chief executive officer, for comment yesterday were unsuccessful."
    5 Oct 2012, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    If I were in TGs shoes I'd be avoiding comment too. While Axion plans to sell a bunch of batteries, it isn't a named party to the grant. Under those circumstances, I can't see how commenting would ever be in Axion's best interest, particularly if the parties to the grant are sensitive about controlling their own information flow.
    5 Oct 2012, 04:03 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    From the Paris Airshow:

     

    http://g4.tv/SBd5ga

     

    I want the Tron-esque Beamer!
    5 Oct 2012, 04:11 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Whoa, I like the Onyx. 680 horses and mileage of a Prius.
    5 Oct 2012, 05:05 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    Song for the day Hoping for a break through to the other side of .30.

     

    http://bit.ly/Um7Dka

     

    Give share price some positive karma.
    bon chance
    5 Oct 2012, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Is it me, or does a move up of just a few pennies cause these folks imitating Sinatra - http://bit.ly/SO8y6v - to come out in force both here and in JP's articles?

     

    I feel like I'm reading an 18 year old's college essay written at 5 a.m. while drunk. They're sure they have a good point, they state it with wild assertions, yet they lack logic, factually-based claims, organization, spelling, and grammar.

     

    Also, are the long rambling diatribes that these folks engage in meant to be read or just meant to fill up screen space?
    5 Oct 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Jon, experience with trolls has given me the ability to glance at the id, number of prior posts, and the first sentence or two, and decide whether to read on or place the miscreant on "ignore".

     

    I can then blissfully continue to enjoy the normal ebb and flow of the blog.

     

    Of course, this is a luxury I can indulge when it is not MY blog, where I moderate or can delete offending commentary.

     

    LOL, this DOES mean that I frequently encounter long series of comments from regulars which "throw" me until I realize they are disucssing one of those diatribes you speak of and which I had been fast-forwarding past for days!
    5 Oct 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I think they get paid by the inch.
    5 Oct 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    "Jon, experience with trolls has given me the ability to glance at the id, number of prior posts, and the first sentence or two, and decide whether to read on or place the miscreant on "ignore"."

     

    TripleB, I thought I was the only one who did that!
    5 Oct 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    "Paid by the inch."

     

    Like John Holmes?

     

    http://bit.ly/37tEq
    5 Oct 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    A slightly more sedate version of the same art-form; extreme public displays of repulsiveness for money.
    5 Oct 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Interesting advancement in cell balancing for those chemistries that need it.

     

    Sendyne awarded second patent for active cell balancing technology for large battery arrays

     

    http://bit.ly/SxMMJG
    5 Oct 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Cell balancing? Why don't they just invent a battery that, when used in a string, balances itself automatically?

     

    D
    5 Oct 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie, That kind of cell feature might take energy storage like a freight train. :)

     

    Added electronics cost? We don't need no stinkin electronics. We do it right because we don't know of any other way!
    5 Oct 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Dear Thomas Granville:

     

    Thank you very much for the letter and by the time you dispense kindly. Thanks for having us in your thoughts.
    Forgot you tell us some things, but I hope these are news to the next letter. Excuse my English but I do not give more.

     

    Regards,
    Carlos

     

    Note: Yesterday I bought 10K more.
    5 Oct 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    Carlos,

     

    You express my sentiments admirably. I felt the letter was written with this group very much in mind, and the timing, whether intended or not, came when we needed to be reminded of how much potential the future holds for this company.

     

    I, too, wish to thank Mr. Granville, as well and Enders Dickenson and Vani Dantam for the indirect communications at meetings, in papers, and via the CEDIA "grapevine."

     

    We as a group remain very eager for news, but the company needs to balance our eagerness with their need for caution and methodical attention to the long-term goals.

     

    I, too, continue to add shares at these bargain basement prices.
    5 Oct 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Good article on better place and the transition of Shai Agassi. Taking a look at what they have in physical plant and it's utilization vs what they have spent is scary. They were swinging for the fence for sure. I'm all in!

     

    Shai Agassi out at Better Place: Like Tesla without Musk, or Apple minus Jobs

     

    http://bit.ly/SxV4RM
    5 Oct 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    10/4/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 280432, AvTrSz: 7380
    Min. Pr: 0.2965, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3026
    # Buys, Shares: 22 170100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3016
    # Sells, Shares: 16 110332, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3042
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.54:1 (60.7% “buys”), DlyShts 113567 (40.5%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 102.93%

     

    Looking at the close of $0.2965, it might seem like weakness if only the price action were considered. After trading all day at $0.30 or so I guess somebody just wanted to lock in whatever they could and there were 7 trades totaling 17,015 shares (~6% of day's total) with a VWAP of $0.29656. The only sub-$0.30 trade prior was a 1K $0.2971 at 12:05.

     

    A pre-market trade of 500 shares at $0.31 and an AH trade of 10K at $0.30 are not included in the FINRA short sales data. Adding these to the FINRA-reported volume lowers the short percentage from 42.07% to 40.5%. If we also add them to the
    short sales it moves to 44.24%.

     

    The short percentage and volumes are reassuring because they are acting as expected. Recall that we are expecting volume to taper off at least a few days and we expected a “high” short sales percentage today. At ~40% it's “high” but continues the trend of lower peaks and is lower than Wednesday's ~57%. I'm hesitant about what it might do next. Last time we had this pattern, around 8/27, coming on a rise in price, the short sales percentage didn't drop really low but vacillated, seemingly centered around the 30% range for a while. Volumes were not comparable, generally, so maybe it won't behave similarly.

     

    Price is above the 10 and 25-day averages, but we've been here before with no long-term benefit.

     

    I'm looking at the average trade size continuing to trend down now (just barely though). It did come back to normal range today. I think it means the market maker is having to work harder to fill smaller orders. This suggests to me both that larger buyers are “full up”, limiting the available upside pressure on volume for now, and a higher percentage of smaller traders, not investors, may be taking advantage of small price moves.

     

    If that latter scenario is the case, we may be set up for some more upward movement in the next few days as I suspect those folks likely bought in 9/27-10/1 when we had VWAPs in the $0.27xx to $0.26 range on aggregate volume around 1.4MM shares. Since then we've traded about 1.3MM, 92.1% of that prior period volume, with VWAPs at $0.2873 through $0.3026 today. Combined with the short sales percentage “spiking” up and remaining in the “higher” range, I'm assuming that cleaned out most short-term traders taking profit at this level.

     

    Buy:sell has been recovering since the 24th though and the 10-day has crossed above the 50-day and 25-day averages. The 25-day average has also been trending up, but I expect it to flatten out for a while unless we have sustained ratios similar to today's.

     

    I think all that opens the door for a move to $0.33, just above the falling resistance line of my traditional TA chart, if there's any buyers looking for signs of my long-desired “grind up” beginning. Since we did “bounce” off the descending support line, after a two-day overshoot, this is looking more likely than in the recent past.

     

    Speaking of traditional TA, we have the early signs of bullishness appearing at last. Stochastic, momentum, MFI and ADX-related are moving to the upside. Stochastic is barely below oversold and RSI and momentum are already slightly in the bullish area. Price is trying to get through the falling 50-day SMA while parabolic SAR is showing bullish.

     

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): I forgot to mention that yesterday had two early 50K trades that skewed the average trades size. If we remove them, trade size moves to 5,012.

     

    This is the low range of "normal" is my best guesstimate.

     

    It does affect my comments in that we would *not* have moved back to the averages.

     

    But I think we're still good - today is looking pretty strong - I'll post a midday status in a little while.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Just a reiteration of my past comments. Thanks so much for your efforts and sharing of this data. It's really appreciated.

     

    Heck, I'm even slowly getting up to speed and thus getting more and more value out of the data and your shared comments. Wasn't much of a technician but there is definite value.
    5 Oct 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: thank you sir. It's always gratifying to hear that it's providing some value.

     

    I'm still uncertain that it will yield long-term utility. But there's been a couple recent signs that are positive I think.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I forget to put my thought in that the research you provide far outweighs anything I'm doing. Your efforts will provide a much more solid foundation for investing while mine is purely short-term technical ATM.

     

    And I've not said thanks for quite some time!

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    HTL and iindelco,

     

    I would like to thank both of you!

     

    Keep up the fantastic work, we "ALL" appreciate it very much.

     

    357
    5 Oct 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    I echo RBrun's comments. It's been very educational. Thanks for your efforts. I'm finally starting to make sense of HTL's comments. :)
    5 Oct 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    co-sign RBruns357's appreciation club
    5 Oct 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    While I'm thinking of it, Rick, Stefan, Wtb, JP, ... the list here of folks that contribute the results of their efforts is almost endless. And each demonstrates an altruism (or, better, "enlightened self-interest" I guess) that is not found many places.

     

    For all that participate constructively here with contributions that would *normally* benefit only yourselves, I offer my sincere gratitude.

     

    The value of how much I have learned, am learning and will continue to learn can't be over-estimated.

     

    I thank every one of you.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Co-sign what HTL said.
    5 Oct 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Been doing some extracurricular investigation into the new FERC payment schemes ... Each RTO/ISO is able to set up their own rules under the FERC parameters. Very interesting, deep, and technical stuff.

     

    I wish I had the time to devote to learning enough about it to write some articles on it.

     

    HTL - Generally, its almost like they are setting up a type of DTCC for energy in determining how bids will be accepted, payments will be made and settlement will occur.
    5 Oct 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Ditto your Jon Hancock on HTL's statement Jon. Compared to my old haunt, my apologies to the few huge contributors there, this room has such broad applicable depth and is a breath of fresh air. Hats off to the administrators for a level of filtering and reminding us on the occasions our frustrations get the better of us.

     

    Should have joined earlier.

     

    PS And thanks to those that tolerate my humor. Metro's my mentor! lol
    5 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: I think you're on to something there. To have a nationally integrated generation and dispatch system that results in a "robust" grid, it would need that kind of coordination.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Here's a nice little top level article that serves as a little reminder of why the utility industry is hesitant and slow to change. It's always hard for entities to sign up for things other than growth and caution is a necessary component in some of these decision processes such as FERC entails.

     

    Try being a CEO for a private entity and selling a plan that includes no growth for years but is "The Right Thing to Do" quarter after quarter. Visions of tomatoes on a special day in Spain comes to mind.

     

    Savers Push $374 Billion U.S. Utility Industry to Shift

     

    http://bloom.bg/QzY2B7
    5 Oct 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    This whole group amazes me daily. I have learned so much.

     

    I am pleased that I can contribute an occasional chuckle and once in awhile, perhaps, meaningful thoughts and insight, given how different my professional background is from so many here.

     

    Thanks to all, and thanks for welcoming and embracing such a diverse group.

     

    I can even thank the trolls, for keeping us passionate on the boring days.
    5 Oct 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, when I first started following this sector, I had no idea how difficult a nut the utilities would be to crack.
    5 Oct 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    How much would I love a PowerCube sale announcement with reference to the RTO/ISO dates and an indication that the company is seriously marketing in this arena.

     

    And better yet, how about a strategic partner here too? And no, I'm not talking about Viridity, and I don't personally believe it would be them ... would be happy to be wrong, and it's just my OPINION/SPECULATION, but I think that ship sailed with SEPTA and Mitsui.

     

    Maybe the same partner that's involved in the Residential Hub manufacturing, but on a bigger scale?
    5 Oct 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... Utilities are consumers of plant & facilities that are meant to last at least 50 years and equipment to that should go 20-25 between upgrade. That make decision making slow. Ten years is just not that long a time frame to think about the next step. Five years is a rush to conclusion. Anything less is just plain hasty. It's a whole different world from the electronics we've watched morph as we grew up.
    5 Oct 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    DRich: LoL! Man that's enlightening! The longest I ever recall thinking ahead was when I locked in a 4 year CD at 10.5% back in the ... 70s? 80s?

     

    A couple years later the "Nu Yawkers" I worked with treated me with new respect. :-)) They hadn't done that.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Thanks for sharing our perspective. I thought it difficult and I'm probably still way short of really having a grasp at how hard it really is.

     

    I took some college level classes in power generation years ago so I knew just enough to be dangerous but to also be inquisitive in this area. It's a slow boat to turn for sure.

     

    I can only imagine people from the electronics industry venturing into the utility industry for the first time. They have to be suffering from large amounts of head to hand hair transfer.
    5 Oct 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The reason Axion keeps testing the PbC to 2,500 deep discharge cycles despite the time it takes is that 10 years of battery life seems to be a magic number for the utilities. They just can't wrap their minds around a more frequent maintenance cycle. As it turns out, 2,500 days is right at 10 years of five day weeks.
    5 Oct 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    John: Good grief. Does that mean we'll need to replace the Gregorian calendar too? ;-))

     

    I believe in Axion, but not *that* much.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Relax HTL, Just think, it won't be long until the PbC gets to the true magic number of 3,652 100% DOD cycles.. then the calendar wars will be over! ;)
    5 Oct 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    48: That's good to know. Before I settled on my TFH, I went through the colander wars. Wasn't fun. Still have the spots on my head.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The utilities don't have anywhere near the problems on weekends they do during the week. I'm sorry if I was a bit less clear on the five day week thing than I might have been.
    5 Oct 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    John: I was joking around. As odd as it may sound buy:sell of 30.03:1
    (as of 14:01) leaves a lot of devil's playground to be utilized.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    I remember product life being a big deal for the utilities when I closely followed Beacon. One in particular wanted their flywheels to last 20 years before even contemplating a purchase.
    5 Oct 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I'll be fascinated to see today's short ratio.
    5 Oct 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Could this be a sign, as originally pointed out by John and supported by many here, that our watched for transition from weaker hands and the selling by the large funds is in fact coming to a close? Or is it early yet?

     

    I pity the thought if it's possible! 8-P
    5 Oct 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    John: I was just pondering that myself. Can't make up my mind. Had shorts of ~453K the last three days but VWAPs were $0.2873, $0.2983 and $0.3026. ISTM covering buys would not be in the cards the last couple of days, so most of these will likely net out at the DTCC is my guess. That should suggest a "high" percentage again today, maybe around what we had yesterday?

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: certainly possible. The trend of buy:sell up big since 9/24 suggests less anxiousness to exit regardless because they are not hitting the bid so fast.

     

    If I was betting, I'd say yes. But we need both volume and price to combine to confirm it, I think.

     

    If my answer above about being, I think, in a short-term consolidation and *if* there is strong buying interest, it won't take long for confirmation to appear.

     

    But we need to keep in mind that I think we also got a lot of traders coming with the expanded base of interest.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    When a MM has a reportable short because of a stock certificate that's being converted into electronic form, there is never a need for a covering trade because the short is self liquidating when the stock clears. I get the sense that we have a big dog sitting at $.30 and letting others jump in front if they want to at a fraction down. I don't suppose there's any way to know for sure, but that's what it feels like – particularly on days when short sales represent over 50% which wouldn't normally be possible if the markets want to keep a neutral position.
    5 Oct 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    HTL and John. Thanks for the thoughts. Makes sense.
    5 Oct 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    John: I don't even think about certificates here. The market-maker who is shorting in response to a sell order *never* has to cover unless those shares never arrive - that would suggest fraud.

     

    But being profit oriented, I presume that they watch for opportunities to maximize profit, within limits of risk. Firms like Night Capital Management and Citadel, ... certainly have the expertise, computing power and access to make more than just the exchange fees they garner for taking or removing liquidity.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I've always heard that market makers in penny stocks are almost never long or short. They want to end every day with a zero balance because anything else is "investing" in the riskiest sense of the word instead of making a market. A big part of the reason is that when FINRA does a surprise audit, positions in pennies get written down to zero and represent a 100% capital impairment.

     

    Things get very different as stock prices rise, but as far as I know, market makers don't take risk positions in the OTC markets.
    5 Oct 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Very confusing, guys!

     

    What do each of you think the FINRA short report numbers represent, over various time scales (e.g., daily and say, monthly)?
    5 Oct 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Comparing the FINRA short data to known sales by stockholders that originally held restricted stock certificates over the period from April 1, 2010 through yesterday leads me to believe there's an incredibly high correlation between the two in Axion's case.
    5 Oct 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    MrI: IMO they are purely the results of Reg SHO requirements that if a market-maker sells what is not yet in his control, he is required to mark as short sale.

     

    Makes sense as how else would netting positions be done?

     

    When you look at the semi-monthly reports you seldom see much more than a couple day's worth of short interest - that's just an effect of waiting on T+3 delivery, IMO. And since John introduced me to the certificate issues, it's easy to see the very few exceptions on the semi-monthlies are likely due to those conversions.

     

    It took a prod from JP and getting into the depths that I now do to realize the effect of market-makers. I had been looking a long time at other stocks daily short and couldn't make hide nor hair out of them.

     

    Still can't but now I know why.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Here's today's FINRA report:

     

    Short Volume: 233,663
    Short Exempt Volume: 82,950
    Total Volume: 387,473

     

    The 82,950 shares exactly matches a trade late in the day (at 15:52:22pm). Interesting that it's pretty close to what we think Q had left. Maybe just pure coincidence.

     

    So what do you guys think about the reported numbers?
    5 Oct 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    MrI: John recently looked at the exempt issue and probably has that rule (144??) at his fingertips. IIRC, it has to do with whether or not the selling entity has to do certain types of reporting or not. If not, they are considered exempt.

     

    But I haven't looked in ages, so let's wait for John's response.

     

    As to the short volume, based on my code from long ago, the exempt is subtracted from the short volume to to get the "real" short sales (exactly how and why this should be done is beyond me - I assume that some accounting process, such as appearing on Reg SHO list(?) behave differently from normal daily shorts).

     

    So that means that that the 233,663 should be 150,713, ~38.9%.

     

    I had suggested earlier today in a comment short should be "high", maybe around yesterday's 40%. So this fits. If we exclude that 82.95K, our total volume is 304523, putting short percentage at ~49.5%. That's even better from my POV as I would expect today's 71.5% “buys” to result in a high short sales percentage.

     

    But if we take out that one big "sell", "buys" are 91%.

     

    I'm going to have a hard time figuring out how to present and think about this one.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... My mother was the one that told me this little "fact" about utilities. She also told me that if you can find an actual utility that is growing you'll buy, hold & forget for 30 years or more. Trading around interest rate fluctuations & little else. When she died her broker figured that she was making 35-40% return on her basis from dividends.

     

    If you stumble onto a growing component technology to the utilities, you've just made a life long investment. It might be true that you'll need to change companies once in a while for all the usual management reasons or trade around a core for income (especially if dividends aren't there) but follow the technology with best of breed.

     

    All because utilities move so slowly. She said many times a utility sector winner is the easiest investing she knew of. I just "know" energy storage is going to be one of those technologies (I follow 3 others closely). I hope Axion turns out to be a best of breed part of it.
    5 Oct 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Can I say Amen again?
    5 Oct 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I don't believe that "Short Exempt" is automatically included in "Short," so instead of subtracting the Short Exempt from the Short I believe you have to add the two together.

     

    The SEC's adopting release for Regulation SHO is here: - http://1.usa.gov/R4Z32V The "Short Exempt" provisions begin on Page 107.

     

    The purpose of the short exempt tag is to exclude Rule 144 sales from the short total for purposes of circuit breaker regulation. It's apparently an optional classification ("the BD may" rather than "the BD shall).

     

    Since short exempt reporting only matters if there's a risk of tripping a circuit breaker, I suspect that most firms (but not all) don't bother with it and merely lump Rule 144 sales in with other shorts.
    6 Oct 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    How many deep discharge cycles has Axion completed so far?
    6 Oct 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Drich, not asking for investing advice here and I'm sure you would not want the responsibility of giving it but I'm curious about the other 3 technologies you're watching. Do you mind sharing that?

     

    D
    6 Oct 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    They've done 2,500 cycles at 100% DoD a couple different times, but by the time the finish one test the PbC has advanced enough to justify a fresh start with a new device.
    6 Oct 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "Aggregate reported share volume of executed
    short sale and short sale exempt trades during
    regular trading hours"

     

    Go to http://bit.ly/tdnpMf and click on the "formatting guide" link in the first paragraph.

     

    As to subtracting it out or not, I guess that depends on purpose.

     

    Here's how it comes out of my programs.

     

    1003 Vol 000392737, Sht 00215214, w/o Ex 00213704, Sht 54.80%, w/o Ex 54.41%

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    John
    Thanks for DoD information. With the latest Gen 2 line battery, it will be nice if they can run the test until it fails. ( Is it too costly for Axion keep the test going beyond 2500 cycle? This information will be helpful to the power industry. )
    6 Oct 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It's not so much costly as time consuming. Using standard test protocols for lead-acid batteries it takes a couple years on a test rack to do a 2,500 cycle test. Given the great charge acceptance of the PbC Axion could no doubt change the test protocols and get the cycling done faster, but then it would be going to utilities with 'non-standard' test data which is immediately suspect, even if the performance is better.
    6 Oct 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    One of the engineers told me they had gone to 2500 cycles (100%) and stopped arbitrarily. It was not anywhere near failure; they felt there was no reason to continue. At 4 cycles per day it takes almost two years to complete. No real world application does 100% cycles.
    6 Oct 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Not planned they don't. And depending on the BMS most will not let them. Well, let me take a step back. Many people let their LAB do a 100% DOD cycle but it's not planned per se.

     

    So anyway, If we have a LAB chemistry that can do 2500 100% DOD cycles, Why are we at 30 centavos? I'm just in amazement.

     

    And then we start talking about charge acceptance and it's ability to deliver power at a high rate over part of it's range. So, Why are we at 30 cents?

     

    Oh, that's right. It doesn't hold as much energy. Usable energy? Err no, just energy.

     

    Like tritium on the moon. I just feel better knowing it's there.
    6 Oct 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I'd sure love to learn the results of some kind of intermediate test... say 10-50% DOD at reasonably high C rates ... but I imagine (and hope) such a test would run into the several tens of thousands of cycles and would also take many months if not years...
    6 Oct 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    481086: At least with a PSOC test it would go very fast because of the already-known fast charge rate ... 200, 300 amps? Or better, as John recently noted amps per amp hours.

     

    If we operate in the ... 40%-80% SOC area, that'll go really fast.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The testing will go faster, but the results will be a "non-standard test regime" that's not necessarily comparable with competitive products. Sometimes you have to satisfy the standardized expectations of the potential customer even when those expectations result in less useful measurements.
    6 Oct 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    48, I think going forward, any testing Axion does outside of supporting R&D for improved performance in some metric or cost reduction is a waste of money. This excludes some application directed testing, as an example the grant supported 2 battery micro hybrid testing, where this is system level testing not solely battery testing. And even here the efforts would mean far more if supported with an automotive group to make sure the system and the test are directionally what's required and the results meaningful. Given Enders and Vani's backgrounds I doubt they'd be enlightened by these thoughts.
    6 Oct 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Shouldn't take time to go make coffee before I finish and post my messages. I'll never get first on a new board or in making a point.
    6 Oct 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I have a hard time seeing how it wouldn't be useful data to many, if it were free (and reliable), but admit certainly that it might not be cost-effective to generate such data... Yet I also imagine that all the NSC and PSU testing, as well as the by-now accumulated viridity/powercube data probably each go a long way toward verifying (if indirectly) the metric I'm trying to get at: Total life and durability under heavy-duty PSOC cycling. Many of the stationary storage / renewables smoothing applications that have recently been touched on would seem to involve that kind of duty...
    6 Oct 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    48, Only point to add though is that the PSU/NSC testing much like the BMW testing is proprietary and can only be shared if the customer authorizes it at some level. I doubt BMW has even shared all of their findings because some of it is sensitive. This is most probably why Axion is doing the 2 battery testing with grant money.

     

    I do wonder how much data Axion has from the two car port rooves they have in the parking lot.
    6 Oct 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    As I recall, Tom said the Asian automaker had gone directly to an accelerated test regime based on the results of the BMW testing. That only leaves two possibilities – either the Asian automaker is close enough to BMW that they share information on drivetrain electrification or Axion has a separate set of its own data that it can share.

     

    In any event, I suspect that the cycle life data 481086 is hoping for exists in several forms under different operating regimes.
    6 Oct 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Am confident of the very same John. But being often impatient, curious, and pesky, just wish we could see it... ;)
    6 Oct 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... I'm in your camp on this too. I really would like several white papers to be published but I'm afraid that, too, will come with all the deliberate speed that Axion has come to market. You do have to make the assumption that whatever we've dreamed up has been thought of by those much closer to the problem. Take comfort that better experts than we are years into testing and haven't walked away.
    6 Oct 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Wise words and advice, DR. And JP, and iind....all much appreciated.
    6 Oct 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    It might make it easier to share such data if your partner is already the leader in the technology. I retract my earlier Hyundai feelings after spending some time reading up on industry strategic partnerships some more and thinking about what makes more sense.

     

    A recent article on Renault/Nissan-Daimler and BMW-Toyota cooperation.

     

    http://bbc.in/R2e4G1

     

    Sometimes it's also good to look back a little to take a peek at what a new corporate leader has said. Not extensive but interesting.

     

    http://cnnmon.ie/STeKKt

     

    The thing that's most interesting for me are the comments on China because I was hearing it for so many years. The industry is trying to get ready for the next wave of competition. Strength through alliances.
    6 Oct 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I was fascinated by the CSIRO handout at ELBC that showed Toyota making seven non-hybrid models with stop-start systems and that the system was non-optional standard equipment on three of them.

     

    http://bit.ly/R6Q6X5
    7 Oct 2012, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, I loved the article about BMW-Toyota cooperation.

     

    "A similar co-operation agreement between BMW and Toyota, which includes joined up advanced engineering work and the supply of BMW diesel engines to some Toyota models, has also been extended since it was first signed late last year.

     

    The two companies have since agreed to also work together on petrol-electric hybrid solutions and hydrogen fuel cells technology, where Toyota seems to offer much strength, while BMW's skills at making cars more exciting and dynamic to drive appeals to Toyota, Mitsuhisa Kato, Toyota board member in charge of the carmaker's product planning group, tells BBC News."

     

    To me, it sure sounds like the Asian PbC tester is Toyota. I would bet money on it. I think we landed the biggest hybrid whale possible!

     

    Kent 8-)
    7 Oct 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Kent, I'm not sure we landed the whale but if we have a few circling the bait, especially if they've already heard full reports on the flavorings, we can feel better about our needs being satisfied at a later date.

     

    Sure beats looking out over a vast ocean and not seeing signs of a blow hole anywhere! :))
    7 Oct 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    In their ELBC presentation, Ricardo had a very cool animated graphic that showed BMW and Toyota were the world leaders in reducing their CO2 emissions and improving their fuel economy.

     

    Given the articles that were linked a few Concentrators back that suggested Hyundai was a bit cool on stop-start, I think the Toyota speculation seems pretty reasonable.
    7 Oct 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "Given the articles that were linked a few Concentrators back that suggested Hyundai was a bit cool on stop-start, I think the Toyota speculation seems pretty reasonable."

     

    http://hgm.me/ULUOui indicates start-stop is a long ways from out of consideration at Hyundai Corp. which owns Kia.
    7 Oct 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    A quick Google search took me immediately to the Wards Auto article from January of this year that I was referring to – "Hyundai Reticent to Tout Hybrids; Stop/Start Uncertain"

     

    http://bit.ly/RMvKqL
    7 Oct 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    " http://bit.ly/RMvKqL "

     

    :-) I strongly suspected you had the Wards Auto article in mind when making your initial comment and personally read it again before responding, JP. There is an apparent consistency between reported remarks by Hyundai U.S. CEO John Krafcik ( “What we’ve found is, it’s difficult to show a 1-mpg (0.4 km/L) benefit, (per the EPA city-driving test), depending on how rounding goes,”) and reported mpg performance of the Kia start-stop model. From
    http://hgm.me/ULUOui
    <
    In the case of the Kia Rio, the technology was supposed to deploy in late 2012 model year, but has been moved to the 2013 Rio as part of the Eco package. Pricing for the Eco package is $400, but it also requires the $1,150 Convenience package. Fuel economy is 31 mpg city/40 mpg highway, although commuters navigating through highly congested stop-and-go conditions may see 10-percent improvement (compared to Rios without stop-start).
    <
    7 Oct 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    We won't know until management tells us something, but given Toyota's existing alliance with BMW and the seven stop-start equipped models they're already selling in Japan, I think Toyota is a more reasonable guess than Hyundai.
    7 Oct 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    If it's Toyota, a fair assumption is BMW shared the PbC test results with them. That in turn would be a big positive confirmation that the results were impressive. And word of mouth recommendations are the best friend Vani could ever have.

     

    Look forward to seeing the same thing in other mkts, if it's reasonable to expect that dynamic--such as railroads, where I think they often don't directly compete geographically. NS sharing their test results with another road would be huge. Maybe it's already happened, but don't remember hearing anything in that regard.
    7 Oct 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    Wouldn't NS also receive royalties/payments from the other railroads for patents they were issued on hybird/electric locomotive. Don't know if this could be a significant amount.
    7 Oct 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >metro ... Yes, I'm quite sure that royalties would be made, but where NSC would make the money is by attracting work to Altoona from all N.American roads and/or license other repair depots to do the work from kits assembled by NSC.
    7 Oct 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I've never been to Korea, but Japan I have. And I noticed that the bus drivers manually TURN OFF the bus at every light. It struck me as odd, because what they might have saved in gas couldn't have been good for the starter. Or maybe it was worth it.

     

    In any case, it wouldn't be a stretch to say the Japanese would readily up take the start stop battery idea.
    7 Oct 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, I've never been to Korea or Japan but I have noticed an adaptation in China and Mexico. They ignore the lights! Chaos theory. :))
    8 Oct 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    If you think Mexico is bad, you should give Rome a try. The eternal city of infinite possibilities.
    8 Oct 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    John, It seems it's always the bigger cities that offer some of the biggest contrast from our "normal" experiences. Especially true when it comes to traffic and what people will do to "beat the system". If only those minutes saved were as valuable as they can appear to be when seated behind the steering wheel of a motor vehicle.
    8 Oct 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    In the early 80s I learned that the only way to beat the system was to work from an office in my home and only venture out into the cold cruel world for business appointments. It's the greatest stress reducer in the world, and it lets you work in jockey shorts if you want.
    8 Oct 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Ranma
    The Japanese turns off the engine at traffic lights in order to not disturb other people more than necessarily (noice, polution). It is not to save fuel, but to be polite. It is not only busses also passenger cars do that as a matter of routine.
    8 Oct 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    True, But you had an occupation that would allow you to do so.

     

    I can see the non standard operating procedure check list now.

     

    Step one-put on pants.

     

    Step two-confirm step one.

     

    It's the uncommon situations in life that will most often cause you to get caught with your pants down! ;)

     

    PS Memories of Boots -N-...... or was it Red Adair? Humans!!

     

    Anyway, Still over .30 ahhh. Change is good. Now, first and foremost time for a good news release. Like that old tomato ketchup commercial. Anticipation.

     

    Ahhh, You tube.

     

    http://bit.ly/PPFri6
    8 Oct 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Poul that sounds like an equally Japanese reason, but are you certain this is the reason? How can a dozen cars starting up at each light be any less disturbing? I also only noticed the busses doing this, which make it seem more a matter of company policy.
    8 Oct 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8764) | Send Message
     
    Poul, Thanks for that piece of information. I saw that in the recent interview with the new president of Toyota posted. Mentioned how socially aware the Japanese are vs Americans due to, in part, population density.
    8 Oct 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    My commute time is about 10 seconds. A bit more if I stop at the fridge first.
    8 Oct 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Isn't it wonderful?
    8 Oct 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Ranma
    Just made a few calls to people to get some more precise info.
    A Japanese from Osaka said she never stops the engine.
    A friends father-in-law is Japanese and lives in Osaka. Father-in-law always stops the engine at red. Friend is not sure why, but believes it is due to pollution. Friend believes there has been a campaign to stop the engine at red to reduce pollution.
    My ex-wife's cousins are all Japanese and live in Tokyo. When I have been driving with them they always stopped the engine. I remember I asked why, but do not remember the answer anymore.
    8 Oct 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Yep, especially because I haven't gained any weight even though food is only a few feet away, all day, every day. I've actually lost weight, but I attribute that to playing beach volleyball again.

     

    The only downside for me is the too small amount of face-to-face human interaction with people I like. On such days I just about crush Jeanne with affection when she gets home.
    8 Oct 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "I can see the non standard operating procedure check list now.

     

    Step one-put on pants.

     

    Step two-confirm step one."

     

    :-) For several years I had an hour+ drive to work and can tell you there was a time or two when I looked down about a third of the way to the office to confirm "step one."
    8 Oct 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    John and HTL,
    If you add them together ( shorts and exempt shorts) I can't find any rational conjecture that would have Quercus with any shares left.
    9 Oct 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: You can't add them together.

     

    First, as I replied to John here

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    the exempt is included in the reported short volume.

     

    Based on John's post and a *guess* by me, Quercus might be under that Rule 144 (John, is this a valid thought and/or any way to confirm?) and the "exempt" volume might be Quercus?

     

    Also keep in mind that John is operating under the assumption right now that Quercus is in every day for the 10% or so. He had to assume something with no required reporting mandated now. But that is likely not the case *every* day. When they were reporting, they were in off and on and I *suspect* they might be acting the same now unless there's a reason to change behavior.

     

    Regardless, they've got to be down to the short strokes. *And* they always operated in a way that avoided depressing price, so even if they have some left, I doubt any substantial negative pressure is from them.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    From my reading of Regulation SHO I don't think the exempt short number is included in the short number. I believe they're two different classes that must be added together. In any event, exempt shorts are rare enough in Axion's world that it's not worth worrying about.

     

    On July 18th Quercus filed a final Form 4 that said they had 1,118,612 shares left. At the time, they had 351,300 shares left under their June 14th Form 144 filing which covered the period through September 11th.

     

    Since then I've been plugging 10% of total reported volume (rounded down to the nearest thousand) into my spreadsheet as an estimate of their sales. My running total dropped below zero yesterday.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    On a side note, interesting article about solar panel glut.

     

    http://nyti.ms/OHh3ER
    5 Oct 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    That solar panel article has so many layers to the problem that Im not sure I can get my head around it. I know its typical of the Chinese business problem. yet hard to comprehend. When the Govt decides to expand solar production they do so by allowing the State owned banks to invest in the industry. The local branch of the State owned bank gets together with local city planners and the city guarantees the loans needed to expand. This makes local politicians look good because better jobs are created in their cities. Now that 2/3rds of the solar factories will go broke the politicians and local government officials want to cover everything up. So they cook the books when reporting to Beijing the results of their operation.
    This is why China sits on the edge of the financial knife. They are OK if the industries they have backed are winners. Not so good if they backed the losers. A terrible house of cards waiting for a strong wind.
    5 Oct 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, Agreed. The scary part is: "But banks — which were encouraged by Beijing to make the loans — are not eager to acknowledge that the loans are bad and take large write-offs, preferring to lend more money to allow the repayment of previous loans." You or I do that in this country, its called a Ponzi scheme. And we all know how those end.
    7 Oct 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
    <