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  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Electric Cars Letting off Too Much Steam

     

    "Just as the electric car market prepares to hit the pedal, some professors at a Norwegian university are providing evidence that those vehicles should apply the brakes. They are saying that the life-cycle production process is responsible for creating more greenhouse gas emissions than a conventional auto factory.

     

    While the study discusses the current methods used to produce electric vehicles, it does leave room for improvements in those technologies. Therefore, its findings are not necessarily concrete and could later become less relevant. But for now, the researchers are concluding that the “global warming potential” of current electric vehicles is twice that of those in prevailing automotive markets. "

     

    http://bit.ly/OkBuWx
    9 Oct 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco gets the gold star today. WTG man!
    9 Oct 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I doubt that many here believe that EVs are the answer to global warming. So, the article will find a willing audience. I'm not even sure many here believe that man is causing global warming.
    But we do have a petroleum import problem . 5 million barrels of oil a day. Every day. At $100 per barrel. Nothing could change our countries financial health and future faster. EVs are certainly not an economical solution to that problem.

     

    How is it possible that with an election going on the public outcry for a real discussion about oil imports is simply non existent.
    9 Oct 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, It's possible that media's new focus on fuel efficiency and thus it's spread to the populace will be of great benefit. Some of this can also be attributed to fuel prices and regulations of coarse. I'll not debate how they rate in order. They are all important factors in the "new perception".

     

    I worry far more about other things that humans are doing besides CO2 emissions. I think other factors are going to challenge us long before CO2 will. I liken us to mold on bread and the bakers not making any more. I'm not trying to be inhumane in this statement but I see no way around the fact that an ever increasing population will cause stresses that will continue to challenge us.

     

    As for our media outlets putting accurate information in front of the public to spur important discussion on things that are really challenging us. You'll find it on the net but not as much from the main stream outlets. Britney, Paris and the Kardashinans are far more important.

     

    More on topic. I like where the auto industry is really going for a change. It's good to see more of a focus on things like efficiency vs horsepower and 0-60 acceleration times. I've always been more of a point A to B type guy with efficiency in fuel consumption, capital costs and the proper utility as the primary considerations. But alas, I'm also one of those bad capitalists.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    BTW Indelco,
    Congrats on winning the first poster award.

     

    I was so surprised to actually see the number $.33 yesterday. Its like a dream come true. My good friend wrote me a month ago. He said he thought someone could make money by buying Axion at $.29 and selling it at $.32. His thought was to do this numerous times. ( He's a novice investor) I wrote him that he might never see Axion at $.29 again. Boy, was I wrong. I sure hope I'm right about not seeing $.32 again.
    9 Oct 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Novice investors have the most beautiful dreams and then there is reality.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    LOL,
    And then there is the experienced investors that have learned that novice's dreams are not easy to achieve.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I guess I have seen Tripleback and some others trade in channels. it may be simple but it is definitely not easy, and reserved for the more clairvoyant and experienced than myself.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    jakurtz,

     

    I resemble that remark!! :-)
    9 Oct 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Jon, I was wondering where you saw the number .33 yesterday. It never traded there. Then I thought, well maybe it was there on the ask for a moment? Yet I don't remember seeing that either.

     

    So, I thought to myself, maybe....just maybe, he looked into his crystal ball and didn't realize it. If that's the case, do you loan or rent that thing? Come on. Fess up. ;))
    9 Oct 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    iindellco,

     

    Me? Crystal ball?

     

    ***

     

    Commemorative shards of my many times over broken crystal ball are available for three easy payments of $19.99 plus shipping and handling... but that's not all !

     

    You also get a stand to put your shard on and a box of band aids for when you pick up the shard and cut yourself with it. Now how much would you pay !

     

    But wait, there's more. We'll also send the Broken Crystal Ball Cookbook ABSOLUTELY FREE with great recipes such as
    Hopium Salad
    Small Potatoes That Look Big
    Catch A Falling Knife Steak
    and
    Buy High Sell Low Souffle Fail

     

    That's right, you get the crystal ball shard for three easy payments of $19.99 plus shipping and handling, plus, we'll throw in ABSOLUTELY FREE, the shard stand, the band aids, AND THE COOKBOOK.

     

    Don't delay! Order today!

     

    (fast talking fine print: offer good only while supplies last, not sold where securities laws are enforced, available in most places)
    9 Oct 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I think you may be passing up a good crowd funding opportunity, up to a million bucks to collect the shards and recycle them into fine crystal mini-balls for novice investors.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Jon, lol

     

    I think we have a potential Billy Mays replacement. If you can orate that as well as you've written it you could be some great "get up and go to the fridge" material!

     

    I'll take two so I can see twice as good. Now, I'm sure I have to pay the shipping and handling twice and I can get free crystal ball shard cleaner as long as I pay the "cheap" shipping and handling fees! What a deal.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    iindleco,

     

    The voice of Ginzu knives, Miracle pillow and others is in my family. He would be the voice. He has joked that his gravestone will read, "But wait, there's more!"
    9 Oct 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I think it's fair to say that the chart shapes are getting very interesting. Now I just pray that I'm right on the sell-side supply issues.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping we can stop talking about the Quercus Trust. Perhaps I can recommend a congratulatory card for their successful exit. An up day for the stock on the theoretical last day might also be a good symbolic gesture.

     

    So, back to the card. My design choice.

     

    http://bit.ly/QQFvSI
    9 Oct 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I have very mixed feelings about Quercus. They stepped up to the plate with $18 million in early 2008 and didn't quibble over pricing. The placement at $2.10 per share gave Axion two full years of running room and let them design and build the Gen1 electrode line instead of continuing to make electrodes in a facility that most closely resembled a bakery with black flour. I think investors who take that kind of risk deserve to profit handsomely with technical and business success. Quercus clearly didn't do well on its investment.

     

    The 2008 crash proved that Quercus was too generous with most of its portfolio companies and played havoc with their strategy to provide seed money and then benefit as other investors did follow on rounds. They ended up with a portfolio of cash hungry small companies that depended on them for survival. They decided to sell their strong holdings to feed the weak.

     

    While we'll never know for sure, I'd be willing to bet that Quercus negotiated it's selling plan with Axion and kept its promises even when it hurt. In 33 years of practice I've never seen a large seller that was so predictable and consistent.

     

    I've whined early and often about the negative impact of sustained selling pressure from Quercus, but as near as I can tell there were five fountains pouring shares into the market at various times. Since four of them were shielded by a lack of reporting requirements, Quercus took all the heat.

     

    I'm glad that their selling is coming to an end, but I believe Quercus deserved a far better investment outcome than they got. It's not fair, but it is the nature of the investing process.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    I understand your points.

     

    But I've had enough of living with their decision to sell. And looking at some of the rat holes they poured the remaining capital they raised from their Axion decision into made it even more frustrating. Understand they had certain motivations and they played fair on the exit. So be it. I'll still water the tree and bid them farewell.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    My theme song for mixed and conflicted feelings:

     

    http://bit.ly/VVHerm

     

    Turn up your speakers.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    It has been very frustrating for the price to be so low when we are looking for an increase in our portfolio values. I have had to sell shares from my cash account on occasion when the price was low due to Quercus and others. However, most of us who have remained in the stock have gained many cheap shares that will reward us handsomely as the pps begins to rise. If/when that happens we will be thanking these big sellers for the shares they "gave" us.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    My theme song for sideways movement:

     

    http://bit.ly/Rcungq
    9 Oct 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4200) | Send Message
     
    "The placement at $2.10 per share gave Axion two full years of running room and let them design and build the Gen1 electrode line instead of continuing to make electrodes in a facility that most closely resembled a bakery with black flour. I think investors who take that kind of risk deserve to profit handsomely with technical and business success. Quercus clearly didn't do well on its investment."

     

    I'm thinking QT still has a chance of pulling some iron out of the fire through its' warrant holdings. Actual delivery of $400K PbC batteries to NSC, announcement of several PowerCube and HUB sales before Thanksgiving or a S/S design win might do the trick.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I haven't given up hope that Quercus will be able to recover some of its losses with it's 10 million warrants, but the stock price will need to be a good deal higher than $.75 for the game to be worth the candle. I don't know that it would take much to push Axion's stock to a level where Quercus was solidly green on the warrants, but after two and a half years of market brutality I'm reluctant to guess how far the stock might run or how quickly.
    9 Oct 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Am I wrong here or is this another order since Maya last posted the then most recent order from Kurray. Latest order here is Sept 19th.

     

    http://bit.ly/AnieIv
    9 Oct 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    That's definitely a new order.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    It appears to be the same amount as May order, or what we (JP) figured to be enough activated charcoal for about 1,900 PbC batteries. See that Maxwell also uses their carbon.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    metro, Only cautionary note re: Maxwell is that Kurray makes some different carbons. Two different kinds from coconut shell. Just mentioning it so you're aware that they may be different even at the raw material stage.

     

    Anyway, Good to see their raw material orders going up a little. Not high level production but good progress none the less. Better than a sharp (Oak) stick in the eye.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    inndelco:
    Extraordinary, very good information. This is the new APC intelligence service?
    Have a good day.
    Carlos.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, These services even mention in their offering that you can use it to gain intelligence on your competitors. It has probably sprung up added businesses that will ship and receive goods for your company to hide important information.

     

    You have a good day as well.

     

    The recent stock price adds a little brightness for us all.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    I thought so. At this site it claims 2 shipments under the most recent Kurray name deviation. Can't get both dates without paying but it's added support for our thoughts.

     

    http://bit.ly/QQHuGx

     

    Man, Those guys are starting to step up their carbon sequestration in those Bio-carbon cases!
    9 Oct 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    try this link.
    http://bit.ly/PlsoKJ
    9 Oct 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Ahhhhh metro, Thar she blows! Thanks!

     

    And I thought it was May when Maya posted it. Must be a mental accident. ;)
    9 Oct 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    For those who understand the significance of the detail, the bills of lading specify Kurray's product number for the carbon Axion is using (YP-50F) and Kurray's website provides several technical spec sheets for that particular carbon. –http://bit.ly/PluF8N
    9 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    Is this a particularly high grade of activated carbon to have to get it from Asia?
    9 Oct 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Supercapacitor grade carbons are pretty expensive and the best are manufactured in Asia. If you're willing to do your own processing it is possible to start with a cheaper water filter grade, but quality and consistency matter a lot for the PbC and it's probably best to let the experts do the grunt bulk processing.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    FYI, the last 2 orders were full 20' containers (pallets are typically 4x4)...
    9 Oct 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Tim - do you know what size the orders before that were?
    9 Oct 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Stefan - The first two (of four) orders lacked detail in the transaction description. I suspect you might get more detail if you check the Bill of Lading but that would require a subscription to the service...
    9 Oct 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Must be time to start an electrode line in Japan :-)

     

    Plus we get to sell the partner a PowerCube ... Win-Win :-)
    9 Oct 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Let's see what that Asian manufacturer says before we go spending money on production facilities.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: Nice catch. I was snooping in that web site numerous times last month.

     

    Key is that it's the same sized order. I wish the bill of lading would share the gross weight. That way we could speculate how many PbCs could potentially be made, and then guess for what project:

     

    -- NSC's first OTR locomotive?

     

    -- Preparing for BMW's fleet testing?

     

    -- Maybe sending some PbCs to Toyota?

     

    -- Another military project?

     

    -- Maybe something going on with Viridity?

     

    -- PbC's to fill pre-orders from Rosewater?

     

    -- Axion has developed a new kind of Etch-a-Sketch? ;-)

     

    I'm glad to see this order.

     

    Slightly off topic is that we used to be able to track the battery casings, as they were imported from China. When I was at the SC, I noticed that on the empty casing pallets, the shipping "from" address was from somewhere in Louisiana.

     

    Not sure where one can find intra-USA bills of lading.

     

    Further, after scanning through the 150 plus new comments since I was last on (or, maybe even more), I noticed there was some discussion about the heat issues with the catalytic converter. That sent me off to my July SC notes.

     

    From my July SC notes, I have this company written down:

     

    SGL Carbon Group, Valencia, California

     

    Here's the link to their website, which produces:

     

    SIGRAFLEX® flexible graphite is used extensively in the automotive industry for a variety of applications such as cylinder head gaskets, intake manifold gaskets, EGR gaskets and TBI gaskets, and extremely high [1000° F] temperature exhaust manifold gaskets.

     

    It is approved for use at all major automotive manufacturers. SIGRAFLEX® is used extensively in heavy duty and diesel markets, the small engine market, airbag seals, and heat shield applications and in newly designed Diesel exhaust systems containing mandated particulate traps.

     

    SIGRAFLEX® is manufactured in thicknesses of .008" to .080", in various densities, in widths up to 60", and can be supplied in coils or sheets.

     

    I don't know what this company can do for Axion, but it could have something to do with the carbon sheeting process.

     

    Rick K: Do you recall anything about this company?

     

    http://bit.ly/UDKavc
    9 Oct 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    dastar: I posed this exact question at the June SC. There are other sources for the activated carbon. I recall that in Australia there is a mine that produces equal grade activated carbon.

     

    At the shareholders meeting, when I was catching up to a group in the electrode facility, I noticed two small piles of black stuff on a credenza-like table. One was "chunkier" than the other. The finely granulated pile had two finger swipes through it. I believe we've discussed here that Axion does indeed further refine the activated carbon on site.

     

    Adding that it's highly unlikely anyone will ever see that process, as I have three times been to New Castle, and have yet to learn where the carbon sheeting is made.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I could tell you where the skunkworks is but then I'd have to kill you.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    I thought just posing the question would induce the Axion black helicopters to hoist me away.

     

    I'll stick to my two 2011 theories:

     

    1) That the carbon sheeting is made in a Bat Cave

     

    2) That we're now finally, finally, finally, maybe possibly, could be even plausible, that we are allowed to explore the Church Pew Theory. I'm tired of the 554 closed door sermons. It's time to open the doors, let everyone in. Come buy my seat for $5.00! I'll throw in a bake sale cake, two for one, without handling charges. You only have to pay shipping charges that are merely four times more expensive than the cake!

     

    Great one Springer. Hilarious!

     

    33.4 cents folks.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Maya. A few years back I got to see some new lines being built for Ford to produce catalytic converters based on some huge advancements they had made to improve costs. One of the advancements was a huge increase in the surface area on the ceramic material that functioned as a carrier for the catalyst. A waffled type material. Corning was the supplier. It was about the time Ford lost about 1 billon USD when they bought palladium futures because someone in their purchasing area worried about future supply. They bet wrong.

     

    Anyway, More surface area can be good. Where have I heard that again!
    9 Oct 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    John, I can recall seeing a past import of what looked like both battery case and top molds purchased by Axion from Asia. The timing looked close to the tail end of your tenure there.

     

    I was thinking they were getting ready to produce at least one high volume case in the states. Costs too much to ship air.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    iindelco
    I think I heard that statement the other day when she realized she had gained yet another kilogram. :-)
    9 Oct 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Poul, lol

     

    Best not to use that humor locally though. Might not see the humor.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    It struck me as interesting because I do some work for a chemical company and I lose international sales all the time because of shipping costs. So, while they may want it, unless they have to have it, they suffice for anything nearby even if it's not as good.

     

    In Axion's case, I suppose they have to have the best they can get their hands on no matter where it's located.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    You guys are amazing!

     

    We're all sitting around in our underwear doing Mission Impossible on one tab and listening to "Thank God and Greyhound" on another.

     

    How you even know about these sources of information boggles the imagination.
    9 Oct 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I don't think shipping costs are much of an issue on supercapacitor grade carbons that can easily cost $5 to $20 a pound.
    9 Oct 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    I would think that even admitting that "the skunkworks" exists would be a security violation.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    I suppose you are right, especially if they are placing large orders.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    In truth I don't know that it exists because when I left Axion the electrode assembly function was being done in the area that I'd nominate as the most likely location for a new carbon sheeting skunkworks.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    I forget, do we have previous data points on the time elapsed from the arrival of the last carbon shipment to batteries going out the door? It would be nice to predict when we might expect an announcement of a PbC order/shipment.
    9 Oct 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Correction: The empty battery casings were shipped from Mississippi, not Louisiana.
    9 Oct 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I just got a phone call from Kurray and the product in a 20' container weighs (at minimum) 9000kg or 19,800lbs.

     

    The reason I say at minimum is because the same contact quoted around 30kg per carton and there are 360 cartons which would be 10,800kg or 23,760lbs. The 30kg per carton was a guess but he seemed to know that max that could be shipped via a container.

     

    For what it is worth...
    9 Oct 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Ten tons of carbon will make a mess of PbC batteries.

     

    My back of the napkin methodology goes like this.

     

    A 30HT AGM battery from Lifeline weighs 96 pounds while a 30HT PbC from Axion weighs 73 pounds. So there's 23 pounds less lead in a PbC. Since the case sizes, separators and electrolytes don't change the volume that used to be occupied by the lead has to equal the volume of the PbC electrode assemblies.

     

    Metallic lead has a specific gravity of 11.34 grams per cc. While the sponge lead typically used in the negative electrode paste is a bit lighter, I've used 11.5 grams per cc to keep the math simple. Activated carbon has a specific gravity of 0.32 grams per cc.

     

    Based on the specific densities of the materials, it would take 0.6 pounds of activated carbon to fill the same space as 23 pounds of lead. So 20,000 pounds of carbon should be enough material for at least 33,000 PbCs.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4200) | Send Message
     
    "So 20,000 pounds of carbon should be enough material for at least 33,000 PbCs."

     

    THAT is an interesting number, JP. 33,000 PbC-30HT batteries from one 360 carton order of activated carbon X 2 order deliveries in less than four months ---> 66K batteries, a mess of activated carbon inventory, or a lot of PbC electrode inventory for a company publishing financial reports that express "going concern" risk.

     

    The announced NSC battery order would account for just 1K of the projected 66K PbC batteries. With HUBs taking just 24 batteries each, it seems unlikely expected (or undisclosed) HUB orders could absorb more than 2K batteries this year. Even 50 PowerCube sales on top of those NSC and HUB allocations would leave enough PbC electrode material for more than 12K additional
    PbC batteries.

     

    Time will tell whether the carbon purchase was inventory build or to support batteries orders in hand.
    10 Oct 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting considering the current quoted PbC annual capacity is 60K PbCs ...
    10 Oct 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I googled it: The density of lead sponge is apparently 2.8-3.2 g/cc.
    ( 23 lbs * 454g/lb)/3g/cc = 3480 cc (about a six-inch cube)

     

    3480 cc * .32g C/cc = 1113 g C per battery (~1kg C/battery)

     

    20,000 lbs of C = 9071847g C

     

    9071847/1113 = 8,150 PbCs.
    10 Oct 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    A density of 2.8 to 3.2 g/cc for a material that's just finely ground lead particles seems a little on the light side, but I can't say for sure. The big problem with back of the napkin work is that it can't account for things like:

     

    1. The weight of the cast lead grids that are pasted with sponge lead to make conventional negative electrodes;
    2. The volume occupied by and weight of current collectors and corrosion barriers in PbC electrode assemblies; and
    3. Other unknowns.

     

    On balance I suspect the real number is probably in the neighborhood of 20,000 PbCs, but we can't know unless somebody gives us a lot more data.
    10 Oct 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2873) | Send Message
     
    John, in your opinion would Axion buy this much carbon out of a desire to stock up (fear of shortages/ price increases) or do you expect a large PbC order unlike anything speculated upon in these threads (i.e. 10-20x our current NS deal)?

     

    Also how much money (range?) does this carbon cost? I'd assume that with cash being tight an order like this would be an extravagance Axion couldn't afford unless the material was needed asap? Or maybe I'm reading too much into this =)
    10 Oct 2012, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    It's my understanding that supercapacitor carbons are expensive - as in $5 to $25 a pound, or $10,000 to $50,000 a ton. Renim once commented that high end carbons go for up to $75,000 a ton, although that strikes me as excessive.

     

    Unless Kurray was having some sort of ultra-special clearance sale that was too good to pass up, I have a hard time imagining a situation where Axion would use its limited cash resources to buy10 tons of material that would just end up sitting on a shelf.
    10 Oct 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Wether its 60 or 20K I am wondering how many PbC batteries have been built since the last shipment of Carbon in May(?) and where are they now?
    10 Oct 2012, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Maybe just pre-building (and storing) electrodes, not the whole battery?
    10 Oct 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    The principal development work on the PbC is completed, but the evolution is just beginning. I can see pre-building electrode assemblies to satisfy an anticipated order in a timely fashion, but building a stock to leave on the shelf doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Somethin's going on, and it's not small potatoes. Large order of carbon in May and again in Sept. for a company without much cash, and with a frugal CEO . And on the last conf. call TG said they are "stockpiling product".
    10 Oct 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    MrI,

     

    "...not small potatoes."

     

    So the question becomes, are they stockpiling carbon electrodes in anticipation of a major collaboration with another AGM manufacturer, as the automakers adopt the PbC; or are they stockpiling PbC's in anticipation of railroad and Hub and PowerCube orders?

     

    If the 10 ton order of activated carbon can produce between 8K and 33K of batteries, as estimated in the above calculations by JP, Tim and Edmund, how quickly can those be produced on the current PbC assembly line?

     

    If ten tons of carbon is more than they reasonably need for the next 4-6 months of PbC production, it would suggest to me that they are stockpiling electrodes for a near-term deal with another manufacturer. Not being a businessman by background, I hope others will chime in with their interpretation.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2427) | Send Message
     
    JP, nice calculation, but I think you are a bit high. The activated carbon is also displacing some electrolyte, and glass mats. The carbon sheets are much thicker (c. 5 mm) compared to the lead sheets (c. 1 mm), so there are many fewer "slices" in each "sandwich". My too-quick search indicates leap paste at c. 7 g/ml density (not 11.5), and super-capacitor carbon at c. 0.5 g/ml. My guesstimate therefore is c. 12,000 batteries.

     

    Still, a lot of batteries.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4200) | Send Message
     
    "If ten tons of carbon is more than they reasonably need for the next 4-6 months of PbC production, it would suggest to me that they are stockpiling electrodes for a near-term deal with another manufacturer. Not being a businessman by background, I hope others will chime in with their interpretation. "

     

    IIRC, Axion holds licenses for production of 3K batteries per day. Most of that is dedicated to toll production contracts for FLABs that help keep the doors open. But, some of the capacity (perhaps 1K/day) is designed for VRLA or AGM batteries. So, to me, it appears that Axion has enough internal AGM battery assembly capacity to fully absorb all electrodes produced from 10 tons of activated carbon if they are staffed adequately. That is, the activated carbon order can't really tell us much about likelihood of a near-term deal with another battery manufacturer.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I know the numbers are really rough and am more than happy with being in the ballpark, which is tough when you consider that I haven't seen an electrode assembly since 2007.

     

    Another other thing I didn't account for is the percentage of electrode volume that's occupied by current collector and corrosion barriers. It could be minor, but if memory serves it could also account for a third of the space.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    For now anyway, Axion's battery production capacity on the AGM line is far larger than it's electrode fabrication capacity. That will change some day, but my best guess is that Axion plans to use all of its electrode production capacity in house for the reasonably foreseeable future.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    So, JP and D-inv, it sounds as if you are surmising that Axion expects to produce perhaps 10K to 20K finished PbC's in the near future.

     

    If they ran as much as 1K per day on the PbC line, they could go through the ten tons pretty quickly.

     

    That seems like a lot of volume and weight to "stockpile" if they are not going to be able to sell it as soon as the batteries roll off the line. Do they have warehouse space for 20,000 batteries?

     

    At the estimated $400/PbC price, that is potentially $8mill inventory.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Well we also need to take into consideration safety stock and shipping costs. Axion is getting this stuff from half way around the world and optimizing the volume perhaps purchased to a seatainer. So that needs to be a factor as well.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    With historical PBC sales in the $600,000 per quarter range, my sense is that something important is changing but we won't know much till the September 30th financial statements are released.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Approximately: 12k batteries * $400 per = $4.8 mil revenue eventually. Same for the May 2012 carbon purchase.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    John, There's no doubt something has changed based on the frequency of the shipments. Just hard to talk units because they can be skewed due to batch procurement of the activated carbon we are using as a metric for our calculations.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: another skewing that's possible is 30HT vs. standard automotive battery cases. If we've "a large Asian automaker" jumping right to late-stage testing, we might be making a different mix of batteries than what was used for the napkin calculations.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    SMarturin,

     

    There is plenty of unused space in the electrode fabrication plant to store electrodes. There is enough room in that building for 9 more electrode fabrication lines. It would be far easier to store electrodes than stockpile batteries.
    But when I visited the plant I did not see room for stockpiling batteries. I think it is a valid thought that when the batteries are built they will be shipped out pretty quickly.

     

    But looking back at the companies financials I don't see a lot of waste. Somebody either bought carbon at a huge discount or we are ready to go into a higher production number soon.

     

    Axion has always said they will build the PbCs on site, first. I dont see a 10-20 thousand production number being to big for them to handle on site.
    10 Oct 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I see the shipments in May and September as a pretty clear indicator that something we don't understand is going on. PbC and other sales ramped from $422,535 in the first quarter to $660,447 in the second quarter which ended shortly after the first shipment arrived. The next set of financial statements should be a fascinating read.
    10 Oct 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Good point HTL, Different battery sizes and various potential customer needs is making it harder to speculate on what's going on.

     

    This whole growth thing is just makin for more work, What a pain. It was so much easier back in the days when they didn't have these build requirements making tracking the companies progress so murky. ;))
    10 Oct 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that IF the electrodes are being built they will have to be stored. Its not as if they can just be placed on the floor and gather dust. There will be some sort of packaging and probably shelving. Those costs plus $$ paid for the new carbon shipment will be substantial. We know that TG is frugal and would not spend a large sum of money without the expectation of an imminent and sizeable sale.

     

    Another thought is that the order for the carbon must have been placed some time ago. I suspect that the manufacturer will not have this material sitting on its shelf and so will have to program the Axion order into its production schedule. Then there is the three week voyage. My thought is that the minimum would be 6 weeks from order to delivery. So that would have been mid August or about the time of the last conference call. If an actual order had been received it would have been included in the Q2 results release and discussed at the conference call. So I think that something substantial happened right after the conference call.
    10 Oct 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    AB: IIRC, Al Marshall saw substantial shelving in the electrode facility. I believe he wrote about this in one of the Notes And More From The 2011 Shareholders Conference blogs. I also recall that he then speculated the shelving could be used for completed battery storage.

     

    Certainly, those same shelves could be used for storing electrodes, and or, carbon sheeting.

     

    Which means the costs of the shelving has already been put into equipment and fixtures on the balance sheet.

     

    Caveat: This is all a guess, and from memories several 1000 comments ago.

     

    I like your shipping time analysis, and do agree that something significant may have occurred right after the past CC.

     

    The only thing I find odd is that the exact same amount of activated carbon was ordered.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Maya: "Standard Order Quantity Multiples"? Not unusual in raw materials and also small high-volume parts of various types - screws, nuts, bolts, ...

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Also very common when you have to fill an expensive seatainer. You want it full.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Interesting morning
    10:11 still no sale.
    Level 2 ask - 5k @.319, 20k@.32, 10k@.334,5k@.334,10k@.337

     

    Bid - 8575@.308,15120@.306,5...
    9 Oct 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    thanks for update snowbirdac11
    9 Oct 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    This kind of timidity is normal as a period of heavy selling pressure abates. Potential buyers have gotten used to the idea that as soon as they poke their heads out of the foxhole the big uglies come along with another share dump to make life painful. It can take a week or two of watching before the potential buyers begin to believe the big uglies are gone instead of waiting in ambush.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Snow: notice differing behavior from, say, earlier last week,

     

    NITE at top of ask at last night's AH trade, $0.319. ATDF starts out high on the bid and steps up and up and up as time passes: $0.305, $$0.3051, $0.306, $0.3061, $0.3075, $0.3076, $0.308, $0.3081.

     

    Then Citadel jumps with a bid at $0.31. ATDF back atop the bid with $0.3101.

     

    NITE holds steady at $0.319 offer.

     

    This is big change. This is *strongly* suggesting *heavy* selling is over at this price. This is suggesting that retail investors (we suspect ATDF is mostly retail) are seeing value and little or no downside risk. This is suggesting that the other retail investors that are offering to sell ATM are being patient to meet their targets (NITE, being very large, will have lots of retail folks' orders too).

     

    This is suggesting that JP has it right.

     

    This is suggesting I'm speaking too early in the day as the weakness generally shows later. But this early morning behavior is *decidedly* different re the bid action, and also the stoic nature of the offer so far.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Just had some trades at 32 cents.

     

    Now 33 cents.

     

    No big selling in sight. Yet, anyway.

     

    Update: have had VFIN place a couple 15k share bids at 33 cents---both times they got hit pretty fast. But, hey, the ask is now 33.4 cents, and the bid is way back at 31.01 cents. Total volume is 100k shares now. Looked like a 75k share buy order came in, or a smaller one that triggered some conditional buy orders.

     

    Update II: have a bit of a retail (my ongoing guess; ATDF) wall at 33 cents. The good news is NITE has not been on the ask for awhile. They're up at 35 cents now.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Then we had UBSS drop their ask a penny lower than anyone else at 32 cents, which got hit after about a minute---only 5k shares. Maybe that was some kinda test, or someone on drugs.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    My novice view is that it looks like the MM is holding back on the reins of a horse that wants to run...
    9 Oct 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking more that some retail wants to lighten up. We have some 'core + trading' folks here, and some added anywhere from 10%-25% lower than 32, so nice little profit for those chunks. On the other hand, if we don't channel back down, those shares will miss the much bigger move up. Trading a micro-cap is a non-starter for me, but I can see the allure of action for some.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    It could also have been a seller who wasn't happy with the $.31 bid, but was wiling to take $.32.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    In Wash DC closing out my storage space before returning to Marietta Ga in a permanent move. Been away from DC for last two years caring for my mother. Had to update concentrator search feature. Had to add 3 concentrator links. After being back home in DC for several days looking forward to going back to Marietta Friday. This place is expensive. The increase to .33 a few minutes ago is wonderful. Later folks.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Hi Bang! Enjoy the laid back life down south! ... When you get all the grunt work done.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I've been conflicted ever since my mother passed away as to whether I wanted to stay in Marietta, return to Washington DC, or go to South America. With Washington DC out of the merry-go-round I only have to consider staying in Marietta or bailing out to South America for a few years. If I lose my court case Nov 14 South America will look even better. Hard to collect a judgement from a guy in South America, Eh?
    9 Oct 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Hi Ban:
    In which South American country would you like to live?
    Carlos.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Hey Carlos,

     

    Which one would you suggest? I too have considered such a move for some time now and am always interested in what the locals might have to say...
    9 Oct 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Tim:
    I live in Colombia. To live would recommend: Chile (the most developed in South America) I know from North to South is a spectacular country, Peru & Colombia. It all depends on your interests. Colombia is entering an exciting time, have very beautiful cities and in some the cost of living is affordable. Feel free to ask any questions, I am always willing.
    Have a good night.
    Carlos.
    9 Oct 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Carlos:

     

    Muchas gracias. Cuando llegue el momento PM se quiere. Es una bendición tener su ayuda ...

     

    ... tim
    9 Oct 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    What do you think about Uruguay Carlos? I keep reading reports that it's becoming a favored destination for American expats.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Tim: I second Carlos's Chile suggestion. My wife is from there and goes back a couple times a year. If you get serious, give me a PM and I'm sure we can arrange some telcons so you can ask lots of questions.

     

    We've been talking about moving there in a few years.

     

    She likes Valparaiso and has some property there.

     

    Only downside I can think of ATM is earthquakes.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning Mr. John P.:
    I can not give opinion about Uruguay, I do not know. It is a country with significant agricultural potential.
    Have a good day.
    Carlos.
    10 Oct 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    H.T love:
    Oh!! Valparaiso, nice. Cerro Concepción y Cerro Alegre, espectaculares.
    Have a nice day.
    Carlos.
    10 Oct 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    A generous offer HTL that I will most likely take you up on. I will get serious around the same time AXPW PPS gets serious <grin>...
    10 Oct 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Earthquakes ... rats!

     

    I guess, once we hit $10, we're gonna have to get a bunch of us to pick (carefully) a neighborhood with the right architecture and maybe TG will make us a deal on a PowerCube :-)

     

    In the mean time: "The Best Language-Learning Software"
    http://bit.ly/OTsyck
    10 Oct 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    In the words of a French friend of mine, the best way to learn a language is "pillow talk."
    10 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Jon, it sounds like you have czeched out that theory.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I've been considering Boquete, Panama or somewhere in Costa Rica.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin, lol. Trust but verify!
    10 Oct 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2140) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    My wife is from Nicaragua and she says that Panama is great right now, but forget Costa Rica.
    10 Oct 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    bangwhiz: Believe it or not, Nicaragua is supposed to be by far the safest of all Latin American countries. I know many people who have traveled there and the costs of everything are extremely reasonable. I know of two folks who traveled there to have dental work done, and ended up saving $1000s, far more then the price of the "dentalcation."

     

    Nicaragua is high on my list to visit, maybe pick up a cheapo seaside shanty when Axion goes ballistic.

     

    Costa Rica 20 years ago. Yes. Now? No. Too expensive. The Beverly HIlls of Latin America.

     

    I've also read several times on the I-Net that Ecuador is a sexy place for Ex-Pats to dwell; it has been selected as the top South American country to move to for retiring Americans.

     

    During my Latin American travels I've met many from Panamal. These delightful people all love living there. And the women? OOOLALA!

     

    Further, Colombia is an amazing country that has a bad rap from the drug trade. I have a pal who routinely goes to Colombia (to parasail) and loves it. Safe, clean, and the people there are extraordinarily friendly, like our dear friend Carlos.

     

    Aslo, don't discount Panajachel, Guatemala. I've been there and it's the only lake I've ever seen prettier is Lake Tahoe. Very safe. Exquisite vistas. The black bass I ate from this sizeable volcanoe surrounded lake is positively delicious.

     

    http://bit.ly/WSkNDb

     

    Further, and this will take time, I posted on my 12/21/12 Ending Of The World Fiesta Insta a couple of days ago that Honduras just held an overwhelming 126-1 congressional vote to take a small piece of virgin oceanside land and turn it into a mini-Hong Kong; no taxes on income, capital gains, or sales. And SAFE! How visionary!

     

    Take a gander at this beach where the mini-Hong Kong will be built:

     

    http://fxn.ws/QzTieH

     

    Are you now more confused than ever about where to move bangwhiz? I certainly am.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Mayascribe:
    Thank you for your words. In Nicaragua've heard of Granada, seems like a very nice place.
    Have a good day.
    Carlos.

     

    Note: When AXION explode all come to Colombia, I'll lead the tour.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    I'll see you there Carlos!

     

    Thank you!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Bang,
    South America is lovely and I particularly like Colombia and have made a couple of trips to Bogota. Another place I would consider strongly is Eastern Europe. I've only visited Poland and the Czech Republic, but found them to be great places. Have heard good reviews about some of the other countries as well.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2140) | Send Message
     
    Hi Tim,
    Thought you might like this. It looks good, to bad the trailer isn't practical. http://fxn.ws/UIXUVo
    10 Oct 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Wow! I wonder how much they would charge me to drive for them? fantastic!
    10 Oct 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2140) | Send Message
     
    A more practicle aero trailer. Too bad it has 3 axles, more scrubbed tires. http://fxn.ws/OoZic0
    10 Oct 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, they dropped an axle on the tractor and added it to the trailer. What would you call that a tandum+ instead of a tandum? and then the tandum+ is pretty far forward and the hitch is way back. Looks like it would do well in tight spots but you have to watch the fish tail. Probably wouldn't work in the US with the bridge laws but I would drive it. and yes scrubbing but still not as bad as a spread axle...

     

    Edit: one question. how do you get the trailer doors open?
    10 Oct 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: I'd love someday to take you up on that inviting offer.

     

    My studies show Granada is a great place to visit, but housing there es muy expensiosa.

     

    Maybe someday, I'll be the first Sandinista-Axionista!
    10 Oct 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Tim, "Mercedes-Benz Developing Aerodynamic Big Rig"

     

    The key being "developing". So it's an artists rendition.
    10 Oct 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    you mean I can't drive the damn thing? whats the point then! <smile>
    10 Oct 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    European trailers have that wheel setup, so this model of trailer must be destined for that market. Not sure what the weight limits are.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:06 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Metro, I wondered about that. Good for tight spaces and my guess would be 51k (17*3) on that group...
    11 Oct 2012, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I'm seeing bigger sale orders than we saw when the shares were being dumped.

     

    I.E. during the share dump, most sale orders were 5,000 or 10,000 which hid whatever the total was. Now, we're seeing 20,000, 25,000, and 50,000 sell orders. Maybe, I'm wrong, but this feels more like retail folks taking some profits on shares bought cheaper than someone selling a big position to get out.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I'll add (to HTL and Mr I's below comments) that...

     

    - if JP's theory is right, these folks are trading out early from a move and will have to buy back at higher prices

     

    - if JP's theory is not right just yet, these folks are doing a good job trading a channel

     

    - If I knew I could buy all day at .31 and sell at .33...
    9 Oct 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Jon: *if* the MMs are following the rules, there are circumstances where thay are supposed to show the *actual* numbers in the order book. Lots of exceptions.

     

    When I see something other than the "standard block" of 5K, I get hopeful that it's real quantity. If it's 5K multiples, I also become unsure.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    $0.33 rejected us - but no worry we expected this. This should be some of that purely *hypothetical* maximum(?) 1.5MM shares that might be involved in profit taking.

     

    Normal consolidation behavior.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    The lid is mostly about ATDF (previously, them and NITE). When they back off, as they just did, the price pops back up--we just did the high for the day at 33.4, for example, when ATDF backed off to 37 cents. Kinda been this way for several weeks now, after the big boy selling subsided, with the exception of NITE at 30 cents and a little here and there.

     

    Sure seems like if they stayed off the ask, we'd keep going up in these nice chunks. IOW, they're leaving a lot on the table, IMO.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Agreed. But I'm guessing this is normal retail behavior - working mostly on hunches and guesstimates without a solid plan in place that they stick to?

     

    Greed is a powerful force.

     

    On a side note, our falling resistance ~$0.32 today, is irrelevant - didn't even offer a pause.

     

    Thassa good.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    HTL, absolutely normal. In fact, good to see increasing signs of a return to normalcy overall. Looked like the big'ens were about done a few weeks ago, so I spent my remaining dry powder then. Good guess, so far.

     

    Can u just imagine what would happen if we also had a nice announcement outta da company?
    9 Oct 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Yep. The SpaceX thing I really don't want to see. I keep recalling that "markets go down faster than they go up".

     

    I want my grind!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    I really like the lack of much blog reaction to the nice move we've had from 25 cents to 33 cents. Tells me that there's a lot of fuel still in the bunker.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I don't mind true space launches that attain new stable orbits, but I sure hate skyrockets that hit apogee and then explode. Grind is good.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    MrI: LoL! That's the folks that bought during that 18 days of VWAP < $0.30 looking to take profit and being quite hoping not to spook the herd!

     

    "Shh! Surreptitious Selling In Progress"

     

    But it doesn't help - we knew this was coming at this price.

     

    As long as they behave as expected, I'm fat, dumb and happy.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    oops, my bad. blue horsehoe says buy teldar steel. ;^P
    9 Oct 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    In the too much fun department:

     

    The Inspector General of the Treasury Department issued subpoenas to Elon Musk's SolarCity and other big players in the solar market as it investigates "possible misrepresentations" about the fair market value of solar systems that received grants.

     

    http://reut.rs/PlGawO
    9 Oct 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    John, Wasn't that a relative of Elon Musk? And he was supportive?
    9 Oct 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Elon is the board chairman of SolarCity and owns about 32% of its common stock.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/WN7xQ9
    9 Oct 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, I read one small article on them awhile ago and I didn't remember any ownership info. I did however remember some comment about a family member.

     

    Whatever the outcome I'm sure their business is divine!
    9 Oct 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    By the time the Inspector General of the Treasury and the DoJ Civil Division begin issuing subpoena's suggestions of divinity are usually off the table.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): through 11:48
    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 191460, AvTrSz: 5983
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3340, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3239
    # Buys, Shares: 21 124175, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3265
    # Sells, Shares: 11 67285, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3190
    # Unkn, Shares: 32 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.85:1 (64.9% "buys")

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Rare Earth Minerals expert Jack Lifton just made an excellent comment on JP's recent article http://bit.ly/UPyOyE (for those who may have stopped following the comments due to all the unreasoned bile)
    9 Oct 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Jack's a good friend and we talked about appearing at the SAE in Stuttgart together. He just sent me a note that said " think with your latest piece you may be a pariah to the auto electrification enthusiasts. Your piece today was the most devastating direct hit on the topic that I have ever seen." I'm hoping he'll have time to stop by for a day or two before heading home.
    9 Oct 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (305) | Send Message
     
    Just read your article. Excellent! Well presented summary and extension of the study from the Journal of Industrial Ecology. I think some environmental scientists understand these issues and are working to create batteries without the serious environmental side effects (see prietobattery.com for a somewhat more environmentally friendly Li battery chemistry). However it will take time to change years of misinformation about electric vehicles as a form of panacea for all that is wrong with modern living. I remember one scientist said that radically new findings teach the younger scientists but do not convince the believers of the old theories, they just finally all die. Changing minds takes time. Hang in there. :)
    10 Oct 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >Ricknplano ... "Truth never triumphs—its opponents just die out, science advances one funeral at a time." Max Planck
    10 Oct 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Well, Stephen Hawkings was convinced by a long-time friend and scientific adversary on his theory about black holes destroying information.

     

    So there's the exception proving the rule I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Was hoping to post a live link about Felix Buamgartner's jump from 23 or 24 miles up. Alas, winds are too gusty and today's mission has just been scrapped.

     

    Here's the link, if you're interested in watching this live tomorrow (or even now...it's live right now), if the winds die down to negligible:

     

    http://win.gs/QRrYZz

     

    Expectatiions are that Baumgartner will free fall at over Mach 1!
    9 Oct 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Well Maya. That's far more gutsy than the David Blaine sideshow. What a waste.

     

    http://cbsn.ws/OlDpu6
    9 Oct 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Jump presently postponed till Thursday.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1040) | Send Message
     
    More amazing to me than the fact that he is jumping out is what the balloon is made of.

     

    The balloon and structure are 700 ft tall or the balloon itself is more than 50 stories high. The material is something like .001 cm thick or 1/10 the thickness of a typical sandwich bag. At launch the winds must be less than 2 mph.

     

    The human mind/ingenuity is an amazing thing.
    10 Oct 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    I only wonder that if you are free falling at over Mach 1, can you hear yourself scream in terror! ;-)
    10 Oct 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2140) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Only after you slow down, then the sonic boom and sonic scream catch up. ;-)
    10 Oct 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1040) | Send Message
     
    All I can think of what this would look like is the opening of Toy Story II when they show Buzz flying through space and his lid turn red as he enters Zorg's planet's atmosphere.

     

    (Yes I have two little boys and that is their favorite movie and watched it last night)

     

    The attempted launch for Thursday has been cancelled and now moved to Saturday.
    10 Oct 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update. The jump is being paid for with our taxpayer money. Apparently the suit is a new astronuat suit that is to keep them safe if a spacecraft blows up reentering the atmosphere.

     

    I don't care why he is jumping. I simply marvel at how brass his manhood is to be able to jump 23 miles straight down.

     

    "Look honey, the Pacific ocean looks so small from up here"
    10 Oct 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if he's got one of those big white landing target crosses that he wants to hit?
    10 Oct 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, The Air Force paid for the cross. After their last 2 mach 20 failures they wanted a success. So they painted a cross on the bottom of his foot so they can all jump up and high five yelling "Right on target". :))
    10 Oct 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Still, it is quite cool. As long as the parachute opens.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Amen to the parachute opening statement.

     

    It would be neat to see the planned acceleration/deceleration curves during the decent. Also the thermal effects on the exterior of the suit.
    11 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    NS999: I know Wtblanchard posted a few days ago that his contact in Altoona reported no movement, but there are some pics dated 9/22 that indicate the NS999 is now 'in the back shop':

     

    http://bit.ly/OlDfmw
    9 Oct 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Movement is good. Movement to shop is better. Great find Lafferty!
    9 Oct 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty: Ain't she just the most beautiful thing ever?!

     

    It's amazing what a grant can do for activity isn't it?

     

    Nice catch!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately if you look at the pictures in this set comparing with the earlier pictures you'll see that the NS999 hasn't moved. I think they intended to say "In back of the shop". The wording is deceptive. :(

     

    http://bit.ly/zr4BgC
    9 Oct 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Isn't it fascinating that the NS 999 was in motion five days before the story broke on the grant?
    9 Oct 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    I know. I know. Now I get the brown star for the top kill joy award. Can't win for nuttin.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... You're right. It is sitting in the same spot & still coupled to the "Brick". Just a different angle. If it were scheduled for work it would be on the roundtable "Circle". Like it was back in January 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/SMHdak
    9 Oct 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Now that they have the grant let's hope it fits in the shop schedule soon. :)

     

    This is like waiting in the rain in many areas of the country this year.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Is it correct that the NS 999 already has the battery system installed? And if so, is it possible they are just waiting for Altoona's coldest month, (January according to the Weather Channel) to do winter testing?
    9 Oct 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    rgholbrook, Any information I've seen and DRich gas gathered via his contacts indicate no integration of the PbC batteries into the NS999 has started. It is possible they are doing some work on subsystems outside of the NS999 but we don't know that. Could be they are waiting for Winter but we don't know.

     

    There were thoughts that the program might have been delayed due to very bad weather they had in the region which diverted resources and also due to the then impending grant which they have now received. So we are watching closely for signs.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I'll say it one last time. On the last conference call (?) for NSC they said that work had accelerated for the the 2008 SD40 conversion project as THE priority to the shops. Since I'd not heard Boo! about NS999 and NO ONE seemed to have any faith in a battery loco and NS999 had been parked in the shop limbo area (where it still is), I wondered if the project had been shelved until they had some spare time to mess with it.

     

    I rather doubt weather has had any impact. I also think the loco is sitting there empty of batteries. What it was in the shop for back in January I haven't a clue, but it was not what I was hoping for.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Whoops: sorry for the false start, gents. Dang caption got me excited.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I understand. Makes sense that they would remove the batteries so they don't have cracking and discharge problems in the cold weather.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, Me as well when I first saw it. But being on the other page my excitement was tempered after I took a look back. Darn.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Indelco. Seen several articles with one-line sentences stating NS had a battery locomotive, but was pretty sure if it was operating, would have heard it here first. Thanks for the update.
    9 Oct 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    If anyone here is in CA this might be something of interest. Not good for the taxpayer perhaps but.

     

    Cheapest Nissan Leaf lease around: $139/month in California

     

    http://aol.it/QRIfxE
    9 Oct 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    If they're having to let them go at distressed bargain basement prices of $199 a month I can't imagine anybody will be pushing to ramp production anytime soon.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Fear not!

     

    Rumored: Nissan Developing Cheaper LEAF Electric Car

     

    http://bit.ly/QdWNH0

     

    I remember awhile ago there was a Nissan exec. that commented that he thought they would have to start stripping some of the bells and whistles out of EV's in order to get the price down. He mentioned that with some of the transportable electronics that everyone has that perhaps docking stations made more sense so that people could just use what they already have. Makes sense but I'm a KISS guy anyway. I might be different if I was spending huge amounts of time in my car but I can live without spending 5 k USD on stuff that sits most of the time and is the first thing to fail.
    9 Oct 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Sign me up for the apathetic list.
    9 Oct 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    I might drive one if they paid me.
    9 Oct 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Is this the beginning of the Proverbial "Death Spiral"?
    9 Oct 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I think so, but I wonder if the directionality of death spirals changes as you cross the equator.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Nice to see some buying interest taking out the weak hands that were under 32 cents.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to see a volume spike and a strong close... but I've got to step out... so I'll have to read the cliff notes of the closing afterward...

     

    Fingers crossed to string 3 days in a row going up...
    9 Oct 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Jon, we closed at 32.00 cents, so you got your 3 days in a row up thang. 30k shares traded in the final 15 minutes, all at that price. Total volume for the day was 317k shares.
    9 Oct 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4200) | Send Message
     
    "Jon, we closed at 32.00 cents, so you got your 3 days in a row up thang."

     

    And did so with no news on a day when DOW, S&P, Nasdaq were all down.
    9 Oct 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mr. I and D-I

     

    .50 by November 15, 2012

     

    That would be a swell birthday present.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Why not double that by the 12th for my birthday? I'm getting old and can't afford to be as patient as you whippersnappers who still have kids in the house.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I'll see your double and bump you $0.50 more for being your age and still have kids in the house.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    The Q3 results and conf call will probably be right around 11/15, so should be very interesting.
    10 Oct 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Wow... seems the Axionistas have a significant Scorpion population.

     

    May the share price will rock like a hurricane. http://bit.ly/SQC4rz
    10 Oct 2012, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I didn't want to seem greedy or overly ambitious, although I certainly think it's possible.
    10 Oct 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1040) | Send Message
     
    I hope you get it. My personal hope is $1.00 by the planned birthdate of 3rd child. Due date is March 27, but it will be a C-section so my wife will want the kid out by March 15th so it will be around March 23rd. I hope for $1.00 share and any potenial financing to be complete by then.

     

    That said I'd like the amount to stay low for another 4 weeks as I get a decent (to me!) bonus check then that my wife won't know about and won't worry about for a while. She'd rather do something like pay-off part of our car loan or put it toward our kids college fund. Pfff!
    10 Oct 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    when seeming greedy and too ambitious is a reflection of your courage and tenacity i wouldn't worry about it too much; harder to champion real solutions and wait out popular hysteria then be generous with other peoples money and content with expectations of mediocrity.
    11 Oct 2012, 06:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4200) | Send Message
     
    Trivia of possible interest to technical trading analysts. The 10K shares I bought last Thursday (10/4) will not settle until tomorrow.

     

    Also, ~3:35p.m. volume on offer @ $.3249 amounted to 9,400 shares with 20,000 bid for $.3174
    9 Oct 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Well, since today's volume was 317k shares, Quercus should be out. So there goes another former big seller.
    9 Oct 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    My QBE fell to zero today. It doesn't prove anything of course, but the numbers do fit long established trading patterns.
    9 Oct 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    A big huge (hoping) CONGRATS, John! Well done!

     

    I greatly appreciate both yours and others tracking for so many months the exodus, the deep river of flooding shares. Maybe all we'll see here on out are those skinny catfish desperately flopping around in idle puddles, whiskers twitching, gasping for the final cheap shares.

     

    Enjoy any of these various "gurgling noises."

     

    http://bit.ly/TeSx9B

     

    Of course, there's still BlackRock....
    9 Oct 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Over the weekend I posted an Instablog that said "When I pull all the numbers together, the only conclusion I can reach is that even under a worst case scenario we're within a million shares of the bottom of the willing sellers barrel."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Since we haven't seen much activity that looks like the big uglies since the end of last week, we may well be there.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    JP: Still believe Quercus has more yet to sell. Not much more, but as I have seen over the past months, they were not selling every single day.

     

    We are very close to QT exhaustion. But there is still BlackRock.

     

    I read your Insta, and largely do agree. Yet there is some more time for the slime bag slithering bottom feeders like me to catch shares under 35 cents.

     

    JS: Reminder! We share the same B-Day, and I will be quite happy if Axion is 42 cents on our B-Day. An extreme well north of 50% off the Oct. first 25.2 cent low. I'll take that in 35 or thereabout days. A HUGE gain.

     

    10 Oct 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I will be happy when the pushing and shoving happens around the buy window with the same intensity and duration that has been around the sell window...
    10 Oct 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4200) | Send Message
     
    "Yet there is some more time for the slime bag slithering bottom feeders like me to catch shares under 35 cents."

     

    I did my part to help you there, Maya, and threw the D-Inv curse in yesterday at $.32. Should have more bottom feed this morning.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): EOD stuff
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 317310, AvTrSz: 6102
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3340, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3222
    # Buys, Shares: 28 154125, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3254
    # Sells, Shares: 22 151385, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3187
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 11800, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3242
    Buy:Sell 1.02:1 (48.6% "buys"), DlyShts 41475 (13.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.40%

     

    On the traditional TA front, we penetrated the falling resistance, ~$0.32, as if it wasn't there, and then close right on it AFAICT. Volume was "decent" and above yesterday's on this nice little move up.

     

    Oscillators looking decent: RSI just under overbought, accumulation slightly positive, MFI good at ~63, momentum 1.18 (last time we got in that vicinity we were up around ~$0.60), stochastic in overbought and ADX looking good at 30 with DI+ also there while DI- trends down.

     

    With daily short percentage down, we can see the price was supported by MMs having some long positions from incoming shares from prior short sales (prior three days roughly 114K, 234K and 31K) and they "painted the tape" yesterday with an AH trade at $0.319 to strt us off right.

     

    The total of those three days' shorts are roughly 378.23K. See the similarity to today's "Vol 317310"? Of course, there's some slop in there, but the circumstantial evidence for my suspected correlation between daily shorts and subsequent action keeps getting stronger.

     

    VWAP penetrated the 100-day SMA today, along with the high. Average trade size continues in the lower region of "retail" and buy percentage 10-day average continues its recovery to normal range.

     

    We might see a bit more strength tomorrow, but I'm suspecting it'll turn tomorrow or the next day to test support around $0.30. This is my suspicion *only* because of low short sales yesterday and today. If the market-makers are not long, they have no reason to hold price up - may be why today price was allowed to close at $0.32 with no tape painting going on.

     

    If we see good buying pressure though it doesn't matter about the market-maker positions.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    i expect a 30 cent test and hold. it's why i asked how many still have bids under 30~
    11 Oct 2012, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Just a tangent thought I've kind of brought up before.

     

    http://bit.ly/WOHS9D

     

    They are big in this area and this might be a quicker path to market. Plus it's a far easier step based on expectations. Fast DCA is important in this app. because it allows for reasonable charges during breaks and lunch. Also in many of the apps weight is not a problem just like rail.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Plug Power has been selling fuel cell replacements for fork lift batteries, a big selling point for which is reclaiming the space swapped out batteries and charging stations consume in warehouses.

     

    http://bit.ly/T3v775

     

    They've gotten some big customers: Coca-Cola, Mercedes; but they can't seem to break out with a massive number of sales.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I always had the impression that the PbC would not be a good fit for the forklift because of its lack of power. Obviously the charge acceptance rate would be a benefit. Wouldn't it have to be 1/3rd larger than regular lead acid to work as well?
    10 Oct 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: you meant lower energy capacity right? It has all the "power" it needs. With the lower energy capacity (assuming near-100% DOD), it wouldn't last as long between recharges. I guess it could be offset though by the higher DCA if regeneration were in play.

     

    With a linear relationship between SOC and voltage, more amps would need to be delivered as SOC dropped to have the same power delivered.

     

    There's also a weight issue. The weight of the batteries is an important consideration in maximum load (tipping risk?).

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Yes I meant energy. A forklift does a lot of stopping and can generate energy from recuperative sources such as brakes and the lowering of the lift. However, it takes a lot of energy to move heavy objects around and lift them. For some reason I have always thought that it would take a much larger( heavier) PbC to accomplish the task than the forklift companies wanted. Have no idea where I got that idea. Probably from this forum many years ago. I wouldn't be surprised to find out I am way off base.
    10 Oct 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Forklifts always need a heavy counterweight to be able to lift heavy loads. The forklift would be the most obvious piece of equipment that could use an oversized battery.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Billa, I also saw one of our locally based companies buy a large number of fuel cell powered fork trucks with the support of government money of coarse. Wegmans supermarkets, I believe, uses them in their deep freeze warehouses. Could be wrong for the intended use.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    In the end, where the PBC might apply would need to be studied. Just like you'd need to do the same for the other options. Each one has its sweet range depending on different factor such as cost, workload, temperature, duty cycle etc. At the bottom for occasional use propane rules if the emissions can be tolerated. At the top pretty much fuel cells for hard use requiring near always available. Then there's in between where the various factors need to be understood.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4200) | Send Message
     
    "With the lower energy capacity (assuming near-100% DOD), it wouldn't last as long between recharges."

     

    Doesn't ability to discharge to near 100% DOD more than offset the 30% reduction in energy capacity (relative to LAB) which can only be discharged to 40% - 50% DOD without reducing service life?
    10 Oct 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Certainly it helps on the energy density. But in all actuality even the PBC does not want to be totally discharged for functional and reasons or durability (life). But some of the energy density weakness is offset with better charge acceptance. There is no way to understand where it fits without doing the engineering analysis of the various storage options and the individual industrial needs. Then there is the need to understand the market to see if where the PbC might fit is large enough to be worth the effort. I have none of this information so I can't begin to go beyond the fact I'm thinking there is a high possibility the PbC would find a large enough market. But I can't say for sure. Must..Have..More..Data. :)
    10 Oct 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Funny story. I worked with an industrial engineer that had the task of putting together a report on how better fork trucks might improve the efficiency of a plant I worked at. He followed various fork trucks in different areas to gather the data I'm talking about to feed to the engineer that was looking at the then different battery options (for a couple months). In the end the best they could come up with was to add charge points for the fork trucks in a few locations. Near the lunch room, bathroom, break room, coffee pot and pretty girls. This is not what they reported. Most of the problem was that the units were not being charged when they were supposed to be and that was because they were being used as scooters so the operators didn't have to walk.