Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (269)
Track new comments
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    First!
    10 Oct 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Darn never been first!
    10 Oct 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    I just read where JCI has filed patent applications for a battery/ultracapacitor combo in an automotive form factor. I wonder if this means they are stepping up with better products to meet stop/start demands. Potential competition for PbC? http://bit.ly/Rfug71

     

    Abstract: "A battery system includes an enclosure conforming to a standard form factor, such as a group specified by the Battery Council International. A battery and at least one ultracapacitor are disposed in the enclosure and interconnected to provide electrical energy at battery terminals. Control and/or regulation circuitry may also be provided in the enclosure and interconnected with the battery and ultracapacitor. The battery system may be designed to retrofit existing batteries, such as in vehicular and other applications. The use of a standard form factor allows for little or no alteration of the physical and electrical systems into which the battery system is placed"
    10 Oct 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    It looks to be a system that will combine supercapacitor cells, lithium-ion cells and control electronics in a standard sized battery case. While they'll undoubtedly be targeting it at the stop-start market, it's not fundamentally different from the product A123 is planning except for the inclusion of supercapacitor cells.

     

    The fascinating thing about the patent is the implicit admission that lithium-ion can't get there on cold cranking amperage.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    It's also nice to see the largest LAB manufacturer in the world pointing out what they had in their analysts day presentation. They have a big gap in their lineup between SLI/AGM and lithium ion offerings.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7604) | Send Message
     
    "The fascinating thing about the patent is the implicit admission that lithium-ion can't get there on cold cranking amperage. "

     

    Some lithium can't, some can. It's misleading to lump all lithium chemistry together, just as it would be misleading to lump all batteries containing lead together.
    17 Oct 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... a battery & cap in a standard form factor. Sounds like a unit with less overall energy & more power. Sounds like a familiar trade-off. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts it will cost more than an Axion PbC. I wonder if it will go through a years long testing protocol or if being a "big boy" has its perks.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking since AGM has a higher power density than PbC, they could shrink the lead parts a little to make room for the cap and still have similar total energy as a PbC, but no self discharge.

     

    The concept may be a car-size rip-off of Maxwell's Overdrive module, which replaces one or two batteries in large truck with ultracaps to provide cranking power after the truck has been sitting with hotel load for a while without the engine running.

     

    I imagine being a big player will have some perks, but testing would still be required.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I expect to see any number of systems developed and proposed and won't be surprised if several are successful. Give the PbC a 10% market share in a 35 million battery a year market and I'll be a very happy boy – particularly if the PbC ends up as the go-to choice for the railroads that are willing to pay up for their fuel savings instead of chiseling for pennies like the automakers.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    I'd thought of this before. It makes for a nice package for JCI. As a consumer, Why do I want my lasts forever expensive ultracap/electronics blended in a case with a LAB that will have to be replaced during the lifetime of the vehicle? I'll take it from the experts incorporated near the LAB so all I need to change is the commodity flooded LAB. Nice try JCI. JMO.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Now that I have read further, it seems focued on lithium as the battery. So, probably PbC would win on cost. Personally, I don't see how this is patentable since companies like Maxwell are alreading selling this type of combination, just not all inside the same battery casing.
    10 Oct 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I've always considered patent law as one of the dark arts. From what I hear practitioners cut the head off a black rooster every Monday morning while standing in a circle of salt, but that could just be urban legend.
    10 Oct 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    John: I'm sure they would claim that's "patently" false.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Updated SEC filing?
    Just got email from Axion:

     

    424B3

     

    http://bit.ly/UIO3it
    10 Oct 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    It's just another post-effective amendment on the resale registration statement for the 2009 private placement shares that probably should have been filed in late August.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Folks: This just popped up on several broker headline screens for AXPW. Any odds that this is confusing the uninitiated and had an impact on selling this afternoon?

     

    Reposted from prior Conc.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Confused me. Hmmm.
    10 Oct 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Just when you thought it was safe to go out. So who is going to pony up for those 45M shares and at what price? Strategic investor? The same crowd of vultures as the last capital raise?
    10 Oct 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, probably creating a lot of confusion. I didn't read it hard enough.
    10 Oct 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I hate being the class dummy. Where's that hat I need to put on?
    10 Oct 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    It's the same post-effective amendment they have to file every quarter for the shares that were sold in the 2009 private placement. It should have been filed back in August within a few days after the last Form 10-Q, but there was apparently no pressure from anyone so it just fell through the cracks.
    10 Oct 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Sure wish they would plug those cracks (not the first one)...
    10 Oct 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    As a break from the mundane story of watching paint dry.

     

    I was intrigued by the comments on an article that said a Nissan Leaf could be leased for $139 per month. So, I went to the Nissan Dealer.
    So far in Florida ( yes, all of Florida) they have sold like 20 Leafs. I suggested that wasn't a great survey sample to test the heat conditions. So far no problems with the heat. ( Remember, here it is humidity not extreme heat).

     

    But I said OK I want a Leaf for 2 years at $140 per month with $3,000 down. They said OK. Nissan is giving a $9,000 rebate. With dealer incentive we can match that lease price. BUT, with $600 lease acquisition fee plus taxes plus whatever it is $4,500 down.
    I think driving a Leaf for $325 per month less my gas cost of $50 per week is a very good deal. A good deal for me. A loser for Nissan.
    10 Oct 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Did that dealer have several Leafs sitting on the lot? If not, you may not have gotten the best possible deal...

     

    This is a case where a dealer that can make delivery from inventory is more motivated than one taking an order for a car he does not have in stock.
    10 Oct 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, Thanks for sharing that. I'm not familiar with leasing so I wasn't aware of the various charges that complement the money down, taxes and monthly payment. Sounds like you still had room to go further. But still a good deal in light of gas payments and you don't need to worry about battery life because you mine the sweet side of it's performance curve. Is their any risk on residual value?

     

    I remember seeing somewhere years ago where you can hire professional negotiators to work for you when buying a car. Might not be valuable at this level but I'd take a try at it and then hire someone if I was buying a luxury car.
    10 Oct 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    In KY, we pax taxes only on the monthly payment and they are each month. So a $200 lease payment with 6% tax would be a total of $212 / mo. lease payment. There are no one time up front "sales tax" on a lease here. You pay property tax on it at the end of each year just like you own it....so check what those taxes really are.
    10 Oct 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Appreciate everyones concern about the extra fees in leasing a Leaf. I have leased many cars and am well aware of all dealer fees, hidden charges, and non existence extras. My point in the story was two fold. First: Nissan is now giving as rebates the previous governmental tax incentive. They are losing their behinds.

     

    Second: Florida is a very populated State. 20 Leafs?IReally? In a State with millions of population. That is truly not a representative sample.

     

    Now in my position of driving only 40 miles per day I could drive a Leaf. It would save me about $50 per week in gas. Since I am leasing the monthly savings damn near pays for it. The residual ( purchase price after two years) is $21,000. I would be happy to drive a car for two years and give it back if it cost me $140 x 24 + $3,000 = $6,360 less $5,200 in gas. Its cheap even adding an additional $1,500 to it for those pesky fees. But the point of the story was how bad this is for Nissan. They are losing money, market share, and credibility.

     

    I still might do it simply because its so cheap. But I have to contemplate the range issue. When I need to go to the office I can't afford to have a dead battery.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    As a fellow Floridian, I would point out that you have the additional advantage that there is no autumnal season here, so you wouldn't have to worry about your Leaf withering into beautiful colors, then dying and falling.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    One question about leasing a Leaf, or for that matter, any of the plug in cars. Don't you still need to purchase a several thousand dollar charger for your home or can you get by with house current and slow charging? If you need a charger, you would need to factor that into the cost of the lease as well.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    LabTech,
    I looked into that. I would need a minimum of 6 hours slow charging ( wall socket) per day. The odd thing is when you start contemplating this you really have to ask " what if I'm at work and have to drive somewhere other than home?". What if we move 140 miles away? How do we get the car to the new house? What if the length of my commute changes? This is why leasing for two years is a nice test.
    But its still an $8,000 gamble. And that is 25,000 shares of a certain stock I love.
    11 Oct 2012, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    Keep the stock for a year and then buy the car outright with 10% of your gains.
    11 Oct 2012, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    +-$10.00 in the next 12 months.

     

    If only...
    11 Oct 2012, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    Thanks for the reply. I always find it interesting when the EV crowd points out that they are planning on charging their EVs at work, so they don't have to worry about the battery running dry before they get home. I'm always like, "really? Your employer is going to let you run an extension cord from its business to charge your car during the day and is going to pay for the electricity?" I don't know about them, but I park in a parking lot and then walk two-three blocks to my building. I don't think they make a long enough extension cord for me!
    11 Oct 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Futurist

     

    They were talking about FL over on the Leaf forum today.

     

    I wouldn't expect any Florida LEAF to survive past the 20,000 mile mark without losing one bar, or we can, pretty much, throw the Arrhenius equation out the window as a predictive factor. For the typical 12,000 mile/year early adopter that means the first bar will fall next spring.

     

    Even with "normal" temperatures, a t^(1/2) degradation rate suggests a 16% loss at the three year or 36,000 mile mark (to reach 20% at 5 years). For any Florida LEAF to reach 3.75 years without losing a bar would be really extraordinary.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/X3DB2r ... /53817.pdf

     

    "...fade rates are some 25% to 30% lower when battery operation is restricted to 80% SOCmax versus allowing full utilization up to 100% SOCmax. The just-in-time charging scenario V, however, shows little sensitivity to SOCmax as that scenario keeps the average SOC low regardless of SOCmax limit (Table 2). The result points to a tangible benefit to battery life by delaying the beginning of charge until several hours before the next driving trip. In practice, it will be difficult to realize the full benefits of just-in-time charging without good knowledge of when the next driving trip will occur."

     

    As best as I can figure it.
    1. Charge only to 80% (shortly before driving)
    2. Don't go below 20% on the battery. (Charge immediately to 50% or so)
    3. Assume 20% loss in 2 years. (Your loss may be double or zero.)
    4. Avoid highway driving for any distance. (Service drives are in vogue on the My Leaf forum.)
    5. On hottest sunny days keep Leaf in shade. (if necessary move car multiple times to accomplish this)
    6. Cross your fingers.
    7. Cross your toes.

     

    While Florida is cooler than AZ in the summer it is enough warmer in the Fall and Spring they expect problems.
    I would check on manufacturing date and would not get one that has been sitting there all summer. (Especially if they kept the battery at 100% or let it run to zero in the heat) If the Leaf is sitting there on the charger, I would think bad thoughts about it.

     

    The battery capacity loss thread didn't start until May. Problems were not discovered the first summer. All tho a few 2012s reported losses this summer. Florida didn't get deliveries until fall 2011. Next summer I expect we will hear from all the southern and mid central states.

     

    That said the my leaf forum members still like the car. The company? Not so much.
    13 Oct 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the information. Although the Leaf is leasing at a tremendous discount I have decided that the range issues for me are to much. If I HAVE to go somewhere I Have to go.
    I just can't do that while its charging, even though the chances are small this would ever happen.
    13 Oct 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Volt is discounting also. The First few days in Sept were better but the company I think has a $10 grand discount on them IIRC
    For short days you can get by with all electric and long days you don't worry. The people I've heard from like them too.
    I understand the 2013 has a 'hold' function so you can use electric in the cities and gas on the highways.
    13 Oct 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): EOD stuff, sans analysis

     

    I got surprised: shorts down again. This surprised me and does say that some of our downward pressure was because shares were flowing in from prior short sales that were covered and now sold I think. I had thought many of the prior few days' shorts might have cleared early, but today's volume and low shorts says that wasn't so.

     

    # Trds: 59, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 39000, Vol 395884, AvTrSz: 6710
    Min. Pr: 0.2920, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3105
    # Buys, Shares: 15 97820, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3133
    # Sells, Shares: 26 263064, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3089
    # Unkn, Shares: 18 35000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3150
    Buy:Sell 1:2.69 (24.7% "buys") DlyShts 30120 (7.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.45%

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Can we speculate that this may cause some upward pressure tomorrow? At least that's what I'm going to believe when I go to bed and dream tonight! Ha!

     

    357
    10 Oct 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    that's because traditional TA is weak. JOIN US!

     

    - a message brought to you by the inflection point police
    13 Oct 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I think the IPP are right on the money and Axion will provide incredible educational opportunities for cadets at the IPP Academy. Gentlemen, sharpen your pencils.
    14 Oct 2012, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    how many "bottom fish" have ascended to just under 30 cent levels?
    10 Oct 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Interesting newest hype on how graphene will revolutionize batteries:

     

    http://bit.ly/SSEXYN

     

    Now to find a way to make it less costly than unobtanium.

     

    " The real concern wouldn't seem to be the battery itself though. The production of graphene foam appears likely to be expensive and energy intensive. If the foam can't be made cheap enough, then we're not likely to see this technology commercialized, regardless of how good its performance is."
    10 Oct 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >SMaturin ... I'm a big fan of graphene and believe we will see it in a battery but this is certainly not going to be it. It is a cute lab trick but what it might be actually good for I can't figure. Such is graphene research right now.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    DR,
    I think of Graphene as I did in the 60's when talk of home computers was fantasy.
    I think of Graphene when the internet became available but few had the resources to own a computer.

     

    You get the picture. This stuff might be great. I would love to bet on it. Find us the right company at the right time. Please be a little better on your timing than your and my investment in Axion.
    I'm January 2009. You might be a tad earlier.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist ... I promise I'll try to not push the "buy" button. I think the only other Axion commenter here holding longer than myself (or at least willing to admit it) is John Petersen. My timing sucks.

     

    The good thing is there are no graphene plays right now except for IBM and that is kinda' like my buying GE for batteries, nuclear & locomotives. The only graphene play I've bounced in & out of and will build into a core is Northern Graphite on my belief that the boys at MIT will be successful figuring out how to make commercial sheets. That will take large flake graphite. Intel is the only other graphene investment right now that could possibly make any sense for promising research & integrating their 3D transistors. I'm thankful that all the really whiz-bang idea are not public companies.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    DR,

     

    I love graphene, too, and think the next generation of material scientists and electrical engineers are going to do some amazing things with it in the coming decades.

     

    But you are right in noting that the really cool things happening right now are in private and academic lab settings, and there is no clear way to invest in commercialization yet.

     

    I do not see flaking graphite as the best way to create really pure graphene. The process is too random and dependent on chaotic atomic processes when you try to peel a single sheet of carbon atomic lattice off of a mineral chunk of graphite using scotch tape. It is sort of like trying to create silicon semiconductor microchips with a chisel and hammer and chunk of quartz.

     

    The pure stuff for applied electronics and nanotechnology is going to be created using synthetic processes, like the chemical vapor deposition described in the article. That is going to take lots of clever experimentation to come up with economical ways of producing large quantities. As the article points out, it is too energy and material intensive at the moment to be commercially useful. But smart folks will find ways to do it and then we will see the startups spin off from academia in the coming decades, the way genetic tech companies have over the past decade or so.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >SMaturin ... I'm not going to argue about flake graphite not producing the quality that vapor dep does but I think it has been shown already there are going to be at least 2 distinct grades, one electronics/instrument and the other commercial. After all, the original was derived from graphite and is still used as a source of material. MIT has challenged itself to develop, by 2017, a 1 km x 1m continuous sheet and that will not be done using dep.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    DRich: My chipped up, cracked and very smokey crystal ball conjures up some strange ethereal pipedream that in the year 2018 we'll both be sucked into some new graphene microcap -- with promising game changing technology that will save the planet...the human race from ecosystem doom. And then we'll be stuck in some whirling around vortex, waiting...waiting a half decade for the investment to come to fruition. Pssst...that means break even.

     

    Feel for you. But, Axion Power is getting close. I figure I have only thereabouts 180 square meals to eat before Axion really takes off. Eat, crap, pee, sleep...eat, crap, pee, sleep....

     

    Mush, mush! You and JP win the Iditarod Investment Trophy!
    10 Oct 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Don't feel too sorry for me. I've never doubted my thesis for getting into it. I have never had any doubt that this was my railroad & marine solution. Just high expectations for commercialization and lousy timing. Eh! I figured it might have some future in utilities and autos not a thought. Price target in 2020 - $22 to $27. First mention by Jim Cramer as a "BuyBuyBuy", 2016 @ $6,

     

    I'd be really happy to find a graphene application that I saw a future in like I did Axion. I knew about the PbC since the Mega-C days but I thought it had died until I stumbled upon it again in 2007. The applications that I think graphene will be in "blockbuster" territory for are energy production/storage & communications. Time will tell but I've got time to think it through.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I've always viewed investing as an endurance sport. The really crazy part with Axion has been that while my patience has been sorely tested by the sheer mass of time the product development process has taken each of the major time delays has been accompanied by opportunities that were never part of my investment calculus.

     

    When I bought it was all about stationary applications in renewable smoothing and T&D upgrade deferrals. Folks were just starting to talk about stop-start and memories of the Green Goat failures were fresh. Nobody, and I mean nobody, even considered the possibility that we'd catch the attention of the first tier without several years of performance testing with a series of field demonstrations.

     

    My expectations got knocked into a cocked hat when BMW made the pilgrimage to New Castle in 2009 and told management "stick with us Tom and we'll have you farting through silk."

     

    The bottom line is I've always wanted faster results, but if I'd had it my way I would have short-changed myself and the PbC.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    East Penn to break ground on a large new manufacturing facility in PA.

     

    http://bit.ly/SMYQVt
    10 Oct 2012, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    "Daniel R. Langdon, president of East Penn, said, "It will be a multifaceted facility and flexible enough to be able to support growth in all segments of lead acid batteries.""

     

    .....""It may be funded internally, it may not," Langdon said. "

     

    Can you say "strategic partner?"
    10 Oct 2012, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "East Penn expects to produce industrial and automotive batteries there. The industrial batteries are material-handling vehicles used in warehouses, such as forklifts, said Anderson, who is in charge of the project."

     

    Toyota is big player in the forklift marketplace...

     

    http://bit.ly/Rz0yqJ
    11 Oct 2012, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Of course we would all love for East Penn to be gearing up to produce some massive amounts of PbC batteries.
    Since a multi-faceted plant will be able to make AGM batteries I suspect that they could handle a sizable order in 2015 when the plant is finished.

     

    Of course by that time they won't need for Axion to make the flooded lead acid batteries that constitutes the present contract. And by that time Axion wont need to produce any flooded lead acid batteries because their production will be 100% PbCs.

     

    Strategic partner- You bet.
    Long term partner? Since the beginning
    11 Oct 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    Great find. It does let us dream about the possibilities with a company which has acted like a big sister to Axion.
    11 Oct 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    "Of course we would all love for East Penn to be gearing up to produce some massive amounts of PbC batteries."

     

    Possible, but I really think Ultrabatteries more likely.
    11 Oct 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Hi D-inv:
    Market gradually learns to distinguish between black box and sulfated and a black box that is used to store energy. Finally the best is the best and the best is worth a little more. PbC should be worth a little more.
    Have a Good day.
    Carlos.
    11 Oct 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff Stefan, Part of this expansion could also be to bring back in house the flooded business from Axion. That's actually a good thing. The timing I mean! I'd love some level of assurance that Axion could have that business for about 2-3 more years. After that Axion should be in flight or the first one to the cross on the ground. I'm betting on the former of the two outcomes.

     

    And oh yeah Stefan. I'll repeat your message. Just sell something!!! ;))
    11 Oct 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    D-inv> When I spoke with the Chairman of East Penn two weeks ago at the ELBC she told me that they were pushing very hard on using the Ultrabattery technology in their 2,000 amp hour 2-volt industrial battery cells that are destined for use in the renewable energy market. She also said they had no plans to make Ultrabatteries for the automotive starting, lighting and ignition market, including micro-hybrids. Because of my knowledge of the long-standing relationship between Axion and East Penn it would have been wildly inappropriate for me to drill down into that issue, but it's very clear to me that East Penn has some big holes in its current product lines that mesh very well with the technical capabilities of the PbC.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    VERY interesting. A stepped-up partnership with East Penn keeps making more sense.

     

    Speculative musings:
    Maybe they get the exclusive rights to PbC in the US for auto. 2015 is just about when the US s/s mkt might really take off, IIRC, and Ford might even come around then, as they said that it makes a lot of sense to them for their next gen s/s sytems.

     

    That would still leave an opening for the European and Asian s/s mkts partners, as well as US large PC.

     

    RRs and HUB batteries could be done in-house for now. And of course, oil drill rigs, lol.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    No one company will get exclusive rights to the PbC in the US. The Exide agreement in 2009 included an out for Axion's relationship with East Penn. It was also a harsh lesson in what can happen when you give a single company too much power. While many people have to pee on the electric fence for themselves, nobody has to do it more than once.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    Hi Carlos. Thought of East Penn expanding production capacity to produce PbC batteries is what I classify as hopium at this point in time. I say hopium because we have really had NO indications of East Penn producing or marketing of PbC batteries but we do have multiple indications of producing and marketing of Ultrabatteries. And, we need to keep in mind JP's report of conversation with East Penn's CEO on the periphery of ELBC in Paris where the CEO indicated stronger than expected sales of the Ultrabattery for some applications.

     

    I am not suggesting there is no possibility of East Penn producing PbC batteries. Such a possibility is a "bird in the bush", though, and far from a "bird in hand."

     

    Reference in the article to production in the new plant of lead-based batteries for the automotive market is something I found intriguing. I have the impression any auto battery sales East Penn has now are in the auto aftermarket, not with OEMs.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    " She also said they had no plans to make Ultrabatteries for the automotive starting, lighting and ignition market, including micro-hybrids."

     

    Your report of that comment, JP, together with my understanding of East Penn's battery business as predominantly non-automotive prompted me to take note of East Penn's reference to auto battery production in the new plant. I found that reference quite intriguing.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    Nobody has to expand production to produce PbC batteries because the electrode assemblies can be integrated into any AGM battery line without changing production equipment or manufacturing processes.

     

    Today the world's battery manufacturers are building AGM capacity at a breakneck speed because AGM is currently the "best available technology" for micro-hybrids. Every single one of them knows that if the PbC is accepted by the market, the electrodes can be integrated into their existing and new plants in a heartbeat with no fuss, muss or bother.

     

    We don't have any reason to believe that other manufacturers are quietly doing integration testing in their facilities, but we also have no reason to believe that nobody's doing integration testing.

     

    By the way, the automotive market has two segments; OEM sales and aftermarket replacement. There's nothing to find intriguing.
    11 Oct 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    "By the way, the automotive market has two segments; OEM sales and aftermarket replacement. There's nothing to find intriguing. "

     

    :-) It is intriguing to me to read that a battery manufacturer is building production capacity intended to manufacture batteries for auto markets when it is my understanding their current volume of auto market sales is really incidental business for them. My understanding of East Penn's battery business could well be incorrect, but it is was it is.
    11 Oct 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea where you might have gotten such an understanding because I've known East Penn for almost nine years and I couldn't begin to tell you what their revenue breakdown between sectors looks like. In my experience, private companies are pretty prickly when it comes to disclosing that kind of data.
    11 Oct 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: East Penn is a player in aftermarket replacements, a pretty big one. They manufacture all NAPA branded batteries, also the DEKA branded batteries (big in the northeast), probably others.
    11 Oct 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, CO3.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    An electric motorcycle:

     

    http://nyti.ms/Rh4EmQ
    10 Oct 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Now that is an EV I might seriously covet!

     

    Add a 50cc two stroke hybrid engine for distance cruising and it could be my favorite vehicle. HOV and lane splitting advantages, prolly 200+ mpg equivalent, and rocket performance in a commuter skin.

     

    I might even consider trading my old Ducati..... Naaaaa!
    10 Oct 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    They probably should name it something else, because BMW already has rights to the C1 name. It is a scooter with a roof, roll cage, and 4-point restraints. I used to see them all over in Paris, but for some reason they stopped making them. http://bit.ly/Tj97oA

     

    They are now testing an electric version, the C1E. http://bit.ly/OqSGtB

     

    Electric vehicles actually make sense at this scale.
    11 Oct 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Have you checked out their website? You can reserve one for as low as $250. They are also designing a cargo scooter. http://bit.ly/VUH858
    11 Oct 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Australia Energy Storage ... also partnered with Greensmith Energy Mangement Systems in the US.

     

    ""We're not a battery company but virtually a software company that developed the best way of managing batteries," Mr Turner said, adding that ZEN uses a so-called active balancing battery management system for its lithium ion batteries."

     

    "It's really dropped the price of energy storage in half."

     

    http://bit.ly/QjVYfL
    11 Oct 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    WT,
    What kind of line are they running? And they actually have orders in hand for $8 million. I can't wait for the first utility to want a few MW of batteries from Axion.
    11 Oct 2012, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1205) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting but the 10 year pay back is not good enough, I fear.
    11 Oct 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    "ZEN said it expects the units to increase its turnover by $8 million within three years and double its workforce."

     

    http://bit.ly/W6FMCQ

     

    which by deduction, you can figure out their company website.

     

    I really know little else about them.

     

    I have been impressed (and believe I also posted ) several times with stuff Greensmith Energy Management Services is doing. I think they're worth a "Google Alert" at the least:

     

    http://bit.ly/Jeks7v

     

    EDIT: Previous Posting: http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Oct 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    I like their "battery agnostic" approach.

     

    I got into Axion believing that energy storage demand would be way too large for any one mineral resource to accommodate (assisted by JP's articles). I do, however, think there is room for both lithium and lead technologies, and others. And they seem smart for not marrying themselves to only lithium, etc.
    11 Oct 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    More imported ZEN:

     

    http://bit.ly/QqAbDg

     

    Wonder what the shipping charges are on those puppies?

     

    You would think Japan, Korea, and China would be the markets they're most interested in if they "have the goods" ...
    12 Oct 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning:
    Something to read today:

     

    Energy Storage on the Grid
    http://bit.ly/PpEu5B
    Have a good day.
    Carlos.
    11 Oct 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    Carlos,

     

    This section would be interesting ...

     

    4.4.1 Advanced Lead-carbon Batteries
    4.4.1.1 Market Status & Costs
    4.4.1.2 Ideal Applications

     

    I quit holding my breath about anything really happening in response to these reports. Their timelines keep getting pushed out used to be 2018, now its 2022.
    11 Oct 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    But the size estimates are getting astronomical. Think about it for a minute. Pike is forecasting 14,000 Megawatt hours of storage. At a minimum of a million dollars a megawatt hour that's Fourteen Thousand Million Dollars, or $14 billion if you're feeling less dramatic. Any credible market share will make me fat and happy. The "One Ring to Rule the String" will make me ecstatic.
    11 Oct 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Strefan: "timelines keep getting pushed out used to be 2018, now its 2022"

     

    Likely a concession to the deteriorating economics around the world.

     

    Always helps to be realistic about that sort of stuff.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Micro Cap Club Contest

     

    Pick the best group of 5 micro caps, based on performance between November 1, 2012 and November 1, 2013, to win.

     

    Put in your entries that include AXPW here: http://bit.ly/WVFzls
    11 Oct 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Jon, you have to have an invitation and a pass key to participate. They put you through the whole registration process, and then demand a pass key. They mention contacting an Administrator, who presumably will want to know some things, and then might email the prospective customer a pass key (or not).

     

    I'll wait and see what happens before going further.
    11 Oct 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Pass key is "invest"... that's what it says on the link.

     

    If still having trouble, post a message to Ian Cassel asking him about it. http://bit.ly/Rzjvtw
    11 Oct 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Sorry bottom fishers. I just decided to trawl 100K shares at 0,31.
    11 Oct 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Congrats Poul.
    11 Oct 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Good luck Poul. Now we know that your orders go through NITE (Knight Capital Management) ... at least for this one.

     

    Interesting too that it shows the whole quantity rather than the "standard" 5K, or some multiple. So NITE is following at least one of the rules today.

     

    Whether you get filled or not, with the other volume I expected today, you help put a "floor" under the price, which should encourage some smaller, and possibly more skittish, investors that price is not going into the tank right away.

     

    This should make it harder for market-makers to find shares at a lower price to sell to you. I guess I shouldn't say it, but you are more likely to get a fill if you use a "reserve quantity" (the amount of your order that is *presented* to the market) of 10K-20K or so.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    HTL
    Thanks for the info. And for the tip. Didn't think of that.
    11 Oct 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Typo puts "Axion" in the news

     

    Headline of video
    Solar Armageddon Is Upon Us Says Axion's Johnson
    http://tinyurl.com/98s...

     

    However, Mr. Johnson works for Axiom Capital Management.
    11 Oct 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    hey, everyone panic. i need shares @<30 cents again.
    11 Oct 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    omg Poul NOT TODAY!@!
    11 Oct 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Then you will have to wait in the line :-)
    11 Oct 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    So you get to an all-you-can-eat buffet at opening. You eat all you can, rest, eat some more, rest, eat more.. Finally closing time approaches and they begin to take the food away. Now you say, I could have eaten more.
    11 Oct 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    my stomach got bigger over the weekend.
    11 Oct 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    How about some type of sale Axion? Even just a small PC, anything ... a little push ... crickets, sigh ...
    11 Oct 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Distributed power.

     

    Local Batteries Help In Power Savings

     

    http://bit.ly/RiEBij
    11 Oct 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... This is a good idea and one that the Pbc or UltraBattery would excell at with the numerous spikes a server delivers and the DCA of these batteries. A 14% savings in a data farm is huge.
    11 Oct 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I wrote about Google's use of lead-acid batteries for in-server backup power in April 2009 (http://bit.ly/QfyYzw), but I never understood that the power savings from having the in-server battery could amount to 14% on a server farm. That's serious money.
    11 Oct 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    As far as the UPS function, the PbC should shine in its ability to be accurately read. In my experience, when the power goes out you don't really know how long you have on the battery. The software may say 15 minutes, but you'll often be lucky to get 5.

     

    As far as the PbC for data centers overall, I've seen it mentioned by the company or Rosewater somewhere, so I assume they're aware to some extent. No idea how hard they're mkting to that mkt, though.
    11 Oct 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    I'm assuming the 14% savings is in dollars (rather than electricity) and would be due to load shifting. That is, have the servers run off battery power during peak times of the day (whether it be peak prices for electricity or peak server traffic) so that the facilities maximum load is minimized. Would this be correct?
    11 Oct 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... I would think the function of an in-server battery is not for UPS service but to do frequency modulation to keep the house system on an even keel. Every time a server kicks on or adds discs it's like break rotor starting a motor, which rule of thumb is 930x the running amperage.
    11 Oct 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I,
    I don't recall data centers being suggested by Axion or Rosewater. I have beaten that drum several times. The amount of data centers in this country that could use the PbC is a very large number. I have thought that with the behind the meter earnings and the storage and the frequency regulation and the load shifting attributes it was a natural.

     

    There are over 500,000 data centers worldwide.
    From a report issued in December, 2011 http://bit.ly/VVxiQe

     

    "This year there will be 1.2 trillion gigabytes (GB) of data created, equivalent to 75 billion 16 GB iPods. That’s more than enough for every person on earth to own 10 iPods. All that data has to live somewhere, driving the need for more data center facilities.

     

    The growing dependence on the data center means growing consequences of downtime, Emerson says. A study the company commissioned last year by the Ponemon Institute found that the data centers average 2.5 outages per year, with an average outage duration of 134 minutes. If that trend tracked over the global footprint of more than 500,000 data centers, that works out to 2.84 million hours of annual data center downtime.

     

    What’s the cost of that downtime? Emerson uses a figure of $300,000 an hour as the business cost of an outage, which translates into a total loss of $426 billion a year. That certainly reinforces the value of uptime."

     

    Simply HUGE
    11 Oct 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    >Drich: I'm confused. You make it sound like the server (excluding the power supply here) is powering the battery. Could you elaborate?

     

    JP makes the point below about cheap.

     

    PbC is cheap but not CHEAP. Might cut significantly into that 14%.

     

    Anyway, without a much better understanding of the application requirements, we (at least most of us) are just looking for that electric fence JP is so fond of talking about.

     

    Another factor to consider here is the push for using DC power in the big server farms. I'm not sure how that plays in either.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea whether the PbC would be a good data farm solution or not, but it is fun to dream.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Futurist---only place I could find a data center reference by Axion or Rosewater is on Axion's website regarding their SureEnergy AGM battery:

     

    http://bit.ly/MSbI79

     

    Thought I saw it somewhere else, too, but was probably drinking too much PbC kool aid instead.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    Cherry or grape??
    11 Oct 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping cherry.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    John: "Cherry or grape??"

     

    Silly boy, "CarbonAted" of course!

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Post of the day goes to HTL!
    11 Oct 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I second that emotion.
    11 Oct 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Punch. ;^P

     

    Just got off the phone with a network tech buddy who said he had some spare time this morning so he went to a data center seminar by Emerson Network Power. He even sat next to a data center architect. Damn, I wish I knew he was going---could have had him ask about the batteries: issues, etc. Oh well.

     

    The afternoon session, which he missed:

     

    "Latest Advances in UPS technology for Reliability and Efficiency."
    11 Oct 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    I've thought for awhile now that ATDF is not just simply a conduit for regular, small retail orders. But now I'm convinced. Sometimes they are working much larger orders---their depth at a certain price is sometimes much more than they post on Level II (like what the other MMs do with their 5k entries), and several times I've even seen them back away from a fill, which is not doable if controlled by a retail buyer, as far as I know.

     

    A couple of posters here have said that their Fidelity trades go thru ATDF. Fidelity is used by a lot of independent brokers and funds, too. Could be that some medium-sized holders get their sell orders worked thru ATDF. Maybe that's what we've been seeing recently. With UBSS, too.
    11 Oct 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    mrI: the only argument against that I can pull up has to do with how fast ATDF adjusts to get to "the top of the heap". Good planned patient selling wouldn't behave this way, I think, I think it would be more as John has described.

     

    That bouncing around makes me think they have many more retailers than "larger" investors. Of course, I think they have both in some decent quantity but it looks like the impatient and fearful retailer controls what we see most of the time.

     

    ISTM that the other large ones - NITE, UBSS, ... - do move but subjectively it seems they are less frequently as responsive to bid/ask changes as ATDF.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    HTL, yep, I'm saying I think they represent both kinds of sellers. I used to think it was only small retail order-taking.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    From the Australia Energy Storage article - http://bit.ly/QjVYfL

     

    "Residential units with a 20-kilowatt-hour story capacity - enough to power a typical house for 24 hours - will sell for $30,000 each. The hefty price tag should drop to $20,000 as ZEN scales up production, with an estimated pay-back period of 10 years based on savings consumers can make by avoiding peak power prices."

     

    This sounds pretty impressive. Does anybody have a sense of whether ZEN's software could significantly improve the performance of the Hub? -- Thanks.
    11 Oct 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Wayne: Since the PbC is, to quote Tim's slogan, "King In A String", I don't think so. The PbC is "self balancing" and doesn't need special software or hardware to accomplish that.

     

    Posted links, some in the header to this concentrator and some in older(?) that talks about this self-balancing aspect.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    HAT TIP TO DRich.

     

    You inadvertently lit up a twisted synapse in my brain when you referred to trolls on my latest article. It is now permanently burned into my psyche as an acronym for "Tesla's Repressors of Objective Lucid Logic"
    11 Oct 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Thanks but I think this is all on you and your synapses. I'm not that smart.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    Face it man. You're my Muse.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... How would this work:

     

    T(otally) E(liminates) S(ourced) L(ogic) A(nalysis)

     

    I think it might make a good title for an article sometime. Maybe work it to becoming an insult slur.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Fitting. Should be put on a loop

     

    http://bit.ly/R0OeQE

     

    Edit: Morphogenetic Sorrow. 8P
    11 Oct 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, that song doesn't go anywhere either :-)

     

    Or at least it didn't before I nodded off ...
    11 Oct 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): I've been doing some buy:sell inflection point calculations based on the clue Mathieu gave me some months back. Starting 9/28, 10-day rolling inflection point calculation, VWAP for each day. The last entry is today, which is not complete yet.

     

    -1229.39 0.2715
    -864.15 0.2596
    -349.46 0.2873
    -135.75 0.2983
    35.27 0.3026
    -35.56 0.3000
    349.89 0.3106
    447.68 0.3222
    411.06 0.3105
    617.12 0.3161

     

    Also have 25, 50 and 100-day rolling averages working. This looks like it might have some benefit. I'll have to go back and examine other periods, but this one caught my eye.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    cool. did you modify anything, will you re-post the formula you used? thanks.
    11 Oct 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    OK, I'm out of the closet again.

     

    I think I missed something along the way - I do follow the concentrators avidly.

     

    I see the mildly erratic progression but I don't know how to interpret these data. I'm curious as to your interpretation. Also, what does the first column quantify?

     

    My respects for your contributions.

     

    JT
    11 Oct 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu:

     

    { =(SUM(I74:I173 * J74:J173))+(SUM(I74:I173 * K74:K173))*-1 }

     

    In a spreadsheet the braces are "Operation over an array" or "An Array Operation". To get this in the formula end the input with Ctrl-Shift-Enter instead of just Enter if using an MS, or equivalent, spreadsheet. If other, I don't know. IIRC you prefer something else.

     

    Cols: I=Vol, J=buy %, K=sell %

     

    The formula is copied into each succeeding row.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    462699: Some time back we had discussions about "inflection points". There is a general market use, just saying that a turn in direction of price occurred that was a major trend change. Someone pointed out that there was a formal definition of it, on Wikipedia IIRC. Mathieu gave me the interpretation I needed.

     

    I thought that testing it on buy:sell might be interesting.

     

    The first column is the buy:sell calculated rolling 10-day average inflection point for a series of days. I have the 25, 50 and 100-period too.

     

    Now I have to go back and see if these results seem supported and then decide if I want to apply it to other things as a test to see what happens.

     

    Hopefully someday I'll be able to get rid of some of the noise once I see what's useful and what's not for suggesting trend change.

     

    It's taking more time since I'm looking by myself, which is not what I'd hoped for.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: these calculations are *not* averages. They are inflection points calculated over 10-period data points.

     

    Apologies if any confusion was caused by my confusion.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    you can back test this on similar micro caps first. STTYF would be the place to start as it got me thinking about the whole thing in the first plave. i felt it was a month ahead of axpw. what's nice is you can backtest for these points. then just pick some of your favorite, more liquid bio pharma. nice work, and glad i could help!

     

    message me if you feel like it.
    12 Oct 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: I don't have the data for them and no way to get back data.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    State of Flux?

     

    "FLUX POWER ENGAGES WITH HUANYU NEW ENERGY TO SUPPLY ADVANCED LITHIUM STORAGE SOLUTIONS WORLD WIDE

     

    OCTOBER 10, 2012

     

    Key Agreement Establishes Foundation for Flux and Huanyu to Partner on the Delivery of Cost-Effective, Superior Lithium Battery Solutions for EV, Solar, Grid and Back-up Power Systems"

     

    http://bit.ly/Q2qhpZ

     

    Home page is provocative:

     

    "Lithium Storage for less than the cost of Lead Acid"
    http://fluxpwr.com

     

    PPS: $1.27 but hasn't traded since 10/8
    Market Cap: 58.88M

     

    http://yhoo.it/PqoAYx

     

    but I haven't waded into this:

     

    http://bit.ly/Q2qiKm

     

    "29-Aug-2012

     

    Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Completion of Acquisition

     

    Item 1.01 Entry Into A Definitive Agreement.
    Amendment No. 1 to the Securities Exchange Agreement

     

    On June 13, 2012, we entered into a certain Amendment No. 1 to the Securities Exchange Agreement ("Amendment") by and among Flux Power Holdings, Inc., formerly Lone Pine Holdings, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the "Company"), Flux Power, Inc., a California corporation ("Flux Power") and its shareholders, Mr. Chris Anthony, Esenjay Investments LLC, and Mr. James Gevarges (collectively the "Flux Shareholders"), pursuant to which the parties amended Section 2.3 of that certain Securities Exchange Agreement dated as of May 18, 2012 by and among the Company, Flux Power and the Flux Shareholders, to change the closing date to June 14, 2012 and amend the reference to the closing conditions ... "
    11 Oct 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Yeah WTB. That thing trades by appointment.
    11 Oct 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    As of June 30th, they had a working capital deficit of $3.6 million and a stockholders equity deficit of $2.1 million.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/QmBrqQ

     

    I don't see anything in the SEC filings that indicates they've raised equity since then, although they did get a $1.5 million line of credit.

     

    I think this is a good one to avoid for a while, particularly since it seems to be a US distributor of Chinese batteries.
    11 Oct 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Flux capacitor?
    11 Oct 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Dibs on the DeLorean!

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Da na na na
    Co-caine

     

    OT: FINRA short 43,900 today.
    11 Oct 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    BlackRock?

     

    At the time of John's Instablog, he had accounted for 53,967,602 of 57,075,870 ... shares in certificate form so there are probably more to still dribble out?
    11 Oct 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: IMO, no. Just normal market-maker operations.

     

    hardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that the tracking tools at our disposal are blunt instruments. I think they're accurate within a reasonable margin of error, but I know they're not perfect. Currently I believe we're within the margin of error, but I'm not clear how wide that margin of error is. When you remember that each percentage point in the margin of error represents a spread of 570,000 shares on either side of the zero point, speculating on daily numbers seems pointless.
    12 Oct 2012, 02:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    10/11/2012: EOD stuff, partially copied from instablog (up in an hour or so)..
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 49750, Vol 247500, AvTrSz: 6513
    Min. Pr: 0.3051, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3160
    # Buys, Shares: 15 87250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3201
    # Sells, Shares: 22 159750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3138
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3225
    Buy:Sell 1:1.83 (35.3% “buys”), DlyShts 43900 (17.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.48%

     

    Short sales began the recovery I erroneously expected yesterday, from trying to second-guess the T+3 operation I think. If I can learn from my mistakes, I'll try and avoid doing that henceforth. Anyway, as I suggested yesterday, if the market-makers weren't very long from incoming shares the buyers and sellers would be in control. Today it appeared that way as I saw few instances of potential “lures”. With the next three days seeing only ~115K shares backing short sales flowing in, I expect that the buyers and sellers will continue in control and the short sales should continue to rise as any new sell orders arriving at the market-makers will require flagging as short unless we have very low volumes of trading.

     

    This is entirely possible if I've misjudged and we are actually starting a consolidation rather than just taking a pause before pushing up again.

     

    As I suggested some days back, the volume has indeed tailed off (since 9/24), as we hit $0.33 and withdrew, and is now below all the averages. In normal times I would suggest this says we are entering short-term consolidation again. But this feels a bit different. This feels more like a very brief pause before we start up again. I may be influenced by John's calculation that Quercus is out of shares though, so let's not rely on this feeling too much just yet.

     

    But there is some potential support for this – see the discussion of the buy:sell inflection points below.

     

    Considering this, I want to mention my potential maximum 1.5MM shares that might be involved in some profit-taking. First, if we use John's divide by 2, that drops to ~750K. But even if not I suggested I felt it would be much lower because some of the folks that bought in the 18 days below $0.30 would be longer-term holders. Since the price spread narrowed to something closer to normal today and the volume fell off noticeably, those near-term profit-takers might well be gone already. Six consecutive days of VWAP above $0.30 (average VWAP $0.3106) have offered selling opportunities that short-term folks might see as attractive and a move up was rejected at $0.33, which ought to have encouraged any that didn't take advantage on the way up to get out as we started down.

     

    The fact that selling seemed rather patient today and the buy:sell was in a reasonable range makes me think that almost all the short-term profit-takers might be out now. Any remaining are likely awaiting better prices.

     

    Had one outlier trade of 49,750 shares at $0.315 today that skewed the trade size noticeably. Removing it takes the average trade size down to 5,345, below the averages of 6050, 6250, 6593, and 6315 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively. This leaves us in what I think low side of the “mid-range” for retail investors.

     

    Recall that yesterday I suggested that a continued noticeable price drop and/or high(er) volume on a down day would be needed to say we were starting another leg down. We didn't get either of those IMO. VWAP $0.3105 yesterday vs. $0.3160 today with volume of ~396K vs ~248K.

     

    The buy:sell 10-day average continues improvement and now the 25-day is getting near to tagging along. My four averages are 0.55%, 0.48%, 0.50%, and 0.55% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively.

     

    Speaking of which ...

     

    Mathieu Malecot gave me the key to calculating inflection points some time back. I've been running 10, 25, 50 and 100-day buy:sell inflection point averages since. Today I took a look at the 10-day average since we've had a nice little price bump off of the 18 consecutive days of sub-$0.30 price. I need to examine more periods, but this looks promising.

     

    Since 9/28, we have inflection point calculations and VWAP as follows.

     

    -1229.39 0.2715 9/28
    -864.15 0.2596 10/1
    -349.46 0.2873 10/2
    -135.75 0.2983 10/3
    35.27 0.3026 10/4
    -35.56 0.3000 10/5
    349.89 0.3106 10/8
    447.68 0.3222 10/9
    411.06 0.3105 10/10
    612.12 0.3161 10/11

     

    Share price lows, highs and VWAP have been above the rising 10-day average VWAP six consecutive days now and above the rising 25 and 100-day average VWAP five consecutive days, except that the low has been moving below and above the rising 100-day and is currently above it.

     

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" is omitted.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info, HTL. Looks like things could get very interesting shortly.
    11 Oct 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: Strike the word "averages" in my post. These are rather calculations of inflection points over a 10-period data set.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Enjoy!!!!

     

    The most beautiful country in the world:

     

    http://bit.ly/RS4ODJ
    11 Oct 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: I guessed where it was early. Thank you. I have sent it to my wife too.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    I am there Carlos, 3 years or AXPW $3 a share, which ever comes first...
    11 Oct 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, Carlos. Stupendous!
    11 Oct 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, Muy bonita.

     

    Muchas Gracias senor.
    11 Oct 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Carlos!!
    12 Oct 2012, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Fabulous!
    13 Oct 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Carlos,
    Thanks for the journey through Chille. Wonderful

     

    I was listening to a report tonight that stated that the LED light was invented 50 years ago this week. The inventor is now 83 and what he said was extraordinary and should be made a part of every Business Classroom lectures.

     

    He first stated that he was a 33 year old new engineer at GE when he was given the job of working on his idea. He was scoffed and scolded by the older engineers who knew that light from metal just wouldn't work.

     

    He knew it would and conducted an experiment that produced red light. He knew time and research would produce white light.

     

    What amazed him was that the time from discovery to manageable production was an extraordinarily long time. Longer than anyone imagined.

     

    Just curious but hasn't someone on this board been preaching that verse for a few years?
    11 Oct 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Question regarding "new" posts on Seeking Alpha:

     

    Seeking Alpha software knows where "new" posts are because it flags them with an orange icon.

     

    It even knows how to jump to the first "new" post when a user clicks on a link in the little "alert" box the software displays when there are "new" posts.

     

    Couldn't Seeking Alpha's software therefore provide users a "next new" icon to click on rather than forcing users to scroll through dozens of posts looking for the next "new" post, usually without success if there are only a few?
    12 Oct 2012, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    It's a great idea that would be particularly handy in long comment strings.

     

    I've just posted your idea as a suggestion in SA's contributors forum. Who knows, maybe they'll implement the idea and we can call it the billa-jump.
    12 Oct 2012, 02:35 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    I love it.

     

    Permanently immortalized in SA software. Finally. A legacy!
    12 Oct 2012, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    JP: Good luck on that. I asked for around three years ago, along with a 4real fix for the "failure to flag" properly.

     

    SA's development crew now ranks right down there with ETrade's $h*theads IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    An easier solution to implement would be to replace the "New" graphic with the text "New >" and just let us advance with next find function in our browser...
    12 Oct 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I'm not holding my breath for a solution, but it sure would be handy.
    12 Oct 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Tim: that would be easy, but it wouldn't address the failure to flag, which has been a long-standing issue. I posted a comment once with a proper algorithm that accounted for potential "race conditions" (as it's termed in the jargon of the biz), which is what I suspect is the cause of the flagging failures.

     

    But they never bothered to communicate with me when I reported the problem (multiple times) other than to say "Thank you for reporting ...".

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning:
    To listen:

     

    The future of rechargeable batteries:
    http://cnnmon.ie/OXZTD7

     

    Carlos.
    12 Oct 2012, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi Carlos,
    I noticed that they said batteries developed in the 1990s were being put to use in the last 3 years, or did I misunderstand?
    12 Oct 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    Avicienne Energy did a presentation at ELBC that laid out the following timeline for lithium ion batteries.

     

    Pioneering Research - 1970s
    Chemistry Refinements - 1980s
    First commercial product 1991 (Lithium-cobalt from Sony)
    Lithium-titanate – 1993 (e.g. Altair Nanotechnologies & Toshiba)
    Lithium iron phosphate 1995 (e.g. A123, Valence and BYD.

     

    Bottom line – it takes between 10 and 20 years to commercialize a new battery technology.

     

    http://bit.ly/QVZoaX
    12 Oct 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Whewwwwwwwwww!

     

    Glad AXPW is so far advanced.
    12 Oct 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    If you include the work that was done before Axion was formed, the PbC is about 12 years down the development path and on the cusp of commercialization.
    12 Oct 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    John, here's to the AXPW development path being within the first-third of your 10 to 20 year development phase (from above)!
    12 Oct 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    The PbC already has 12 years of development under its belt and it's actually simpler than a new battery chemistry. So it's very close to the end of the development cycle. The NS order is the first commercial sale of relevant size. So I think the development period is over. Now we just have to help the market understand that Axion is no longer an R&D company.
    12 Oct 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1205) | Send Message
     
    May I suggest you writing an article to make that case? :-)
    12 Oct 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Better yet have TG write one because I've never heard him use a word other than prototype in conjunction with the PbC product line. Or am I mistaken?
    12 Oct 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    When he commissioned the PowerCube last fall Tom claimed "We Have a Product." Enhancements will continue for years, but the R&D stage is over and the transition to commercialization has definitely begun.
    12 Oct 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Good to hear. I was mostly thinking of the earnings cc's.

     

    Yes, Development never stops in a company. That's why some ANALysts watch R&D budgets in companies to see if they are cutting back as an early sign of weakness.
    12 Oct 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    There is certainly some shift of late for Axion, but I would note that on the May 15th, 2012 CC, Granville, in explaining why he couldn't give a fuller answer to Mercy Jimenez's request for projected milestones, referenced the fact that Axion is still an R&D company. (Unfortunately, Axion recently took down the link for the old CC transcripts, so I can't provide it.)
    12 Oct 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, Yes, I remember that.

     

    And I agree with your cc transcript call comments. There is often not enough info. for micro caps. Why take it down so soon?
    12 Oct 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    Probably my fault, they were taken down when I couldn't find the new one and sent an email to Rudy asking if they would post the new one and the new SAE paper. They posted the new call, took down the old ones and didn't post the SAE paper.
    13 Oct 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: for future reference, files are sometimes on the Investor Relations main page but not on the Presentations/Webcasts page, and vice-versa. The recording of the last CC had been on the former, but not the latter.
    13 Oct 2012, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW); A second case that seems to reinforce the potential for the buy:sell inflection point calculation.

     

    Date Inf. Pt. VWAP
    08/10 -444.0 0.3080
    08/13 -665.8 0.3021
    08/14 -950.5 0.2988
    08/15 -471.2 0.2975
    08/16 0005.2 0.3008
    08/17 0791.0 0.2989
    08/20 0871.5 0.3013
    08/21 0928.0 0.3011
    08/22 1448.3 0.3046
    08/23 1726.0 0.3172
    08/24 2013.7 0.3332
    08/27 2082.1 0.3312
    08/28 2318.8 0.3304
    08/29 2037.4 0.3221
    08/30 1586.9 0.3155
    08/31 1014.6 0.3190
    09/04 1015.6 0.3197
    09/05 0847.2 0.3189
    09/06 0149.5 0.3080
    09/07 -206.3 0.3034
    09/10 -474.0 0.2969
    09/11 -378.5 0.2945
    09/12 -442.6 0.2915
    09/13 -400.1 0.2978
    09/14 -186.5 0.2987
    09/17 -330.6 0.2966
    09/18 -605.6 0.2909

     

    I've begun constructing a chart and will begin looking for "head fakes" and whatnot.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Love your persistence on the daily tracking. Have to admit though. I can not make heads or tails out of what you think it predicts.

     

    Looking back at all of it : What do you see in the murky crystal ball?
    12 Oct 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Interesting observation about the above set, based on first chart version.

     

    8/13-8/15 all four calculations turned up: the 25-day on 8/13, the 10 and 100 on 8/14 and the 50 on 8/15. All subsequently moved positive from negative during the 8/13-8/21 period.

     

    On the flip side, all four were beginning to look "toppy" around 8/23 on: the 25 and 100 day flattened and made initial dips, which didn't sustain yet, and the 50-day rolled over 8/26 and the 10-day rolled over after 8/28.

     

    On 10/1 and 10/2, all four curled up again. All but the 25-day are now positive; all are flat or up but the 100-day, which is dipping.

     

    I'll be quiet about it for a bit now - more in-depth is r4equired, possibly seeing if critical points, maybe crosses, or concurrence or ... is needed or significant.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: looking at the price action, the moves in the buy:sell inflection calculations seems to presage price moves.

     

    Look again and notice the relationship. Look first around 8/15-8/16 transition in the calculated inflection point.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, it attempt to predict inflection points as defined here (i think i also gave this link in the past, but would not have if someone else bothered to): http://bit.ly/X0vfsb

     

    if you are interested please have HT Love mail you his spreadsheet and plug in values for him. use your favorite bio pharm stock or sttyf. best way to learn what to look for imo. i think it could be a predictive tool thanks to how inflections are supposed to work rather than a lagging indicator. need numbers crunched to determine if we have a statistical relationship between two random variables (which is what i suspect).

     

    GD my local community college for not accepting my University of Florida statistics background as a pre-req for calc (out of state). i am super stupid in calculus as a result, although i can recommend http://amzn.to/QVIucD to anyone with similar disabilities.
    12 Oct 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: that link gives Http/1.1 Service Unavailable

     

    I suspect it's one of those things that you have to enter through the menu on the site.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: just letting you know the second link to Amazon worked just fine this morning. Must have been a temporary glitch somewhere between here and there yesterday.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2012, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Poul!

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    HTL
    Thank you.
    I guess that means I got all 100K.
    12 Oct 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    100K more shares locked up in good hands!
    12 Oct 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Poul.
    12 Oct 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Poul: Yep. They had to break it into a few chunks.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Poul,
    Thanks for relieving someone of their burden of holding 100k shares. It's in better hands..
    12 Oct 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Future Batteries, by the Numbers

     

    http://bit.ly/QVOiCR
    12 Oct 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    Some of the issues discussed in that article strike me as vaguely familiar.
    12 Oct 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... It is a good thing that in the LAB space, Axion has nailed down the use of graphene. Livermore thinks they have a commercial model for production (in sq. cm now but it's scalable(?))

     

    http://bit.ly/Tcpe7U
    12 Oct 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I did a quick Google search for the surface area of graphene and found a Wikipedia reference to 1520 sq meters per gram.

     

    That figure doesn't strike me as significantly better than the 1500 to 1800 sq meters per gram that Kurray claims for its supercapacitor carbons.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ps5wJE

     

    Do you know of any references that claim an orders of magnitude higher surface area for graphene?
    12 Oct 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Everything is sounding like a broken record except for the scratching of signatures on contracts in the range of ears in the public domain and ultra quiet locomotive builds!

     

    I'm getting ready to remodel another bedroom just so I can watch the paint dry again. It's cooler now in NY so I can appreciate it will dry slower.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    While the paint dries, it would be nice if they would post the new SAE paper that they said they were allowed to post after the October 2nd presentation.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Yep. It's a good thing they recognized the many forms that carbon can be made in and covered it. Of coarse that's where the last R&D director cut his teeth so in his mind it was probably a given.

     

    Or maybe it was also obvious before his tenure. Anyway, for materials scientists it's probably as plain as black and white to cover these derivations.

     

    Thanks for the good news on graphene.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    I hear you Stefan. I looked for it last night.

     

    Say what you do and do what you say.

     

    Plus it's an important paper on something new so they should know we're anxious.

     

    Maybe I'll paint to that NS999 tune on a loop just for ambiance.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    Very interesting concept.

     

    "Lawrence Livermore researchers have developed a new bulk material whose physical properties can be dynamically changed by an external signal.
    "The scientists came up with a method to fabricate mass-producible graphene-based bulk materials from low-cost polymer-derived carbon foams by selectively removing carbon atoms from a network composed of both unstructured carbon and graphite nanoplatelets."

     

    The original article is paywalled. I would love to know what the process is for "selectively removing carbon atoms."

     

    JP, I suspect that Wikipedia referenced value for surface area refers to flat, two-dimensional arrays of graphene. The product described and modeled in the image within this article is not a flat two-dimensional array, but is a "graphene-like" three dimensional matrix that is probably very similar to the nanoscale structure of porous activated carbon, with the exception of having the planar graphene structure covering large areas, which would alter the electrical characteristics of the surface in terms of conductivity and reactivity. The article says it is made by altering "carbon foam," which to my mind sounds like a porous activated carbon product to begin with. I can imagine that the three dimensional surface area of this "graphene-like" altered carbon foam would be in the same ballpark as Kurray's supercap carbons, albeit more reactive due to the planar p-orbitals of electrons sticking out of the graphene surfaces.

     

    If they can start with relatively inexpensive activated carbon and alter its surface propertied to resemble graphene, the process could probably be much cheaper than vapor-depositing a layer of carbon atoms onto some other substrate besides carbon (as described in the article I referenced yesterday in this APC http://bit.ly/RTIppA ).

     

    If anybody can get the original paywalled article, I would love to read a copy.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    They haven't posted the SAE paper yet, but I do note that they posted the recent ELBC presentation. We on the APCs already had access through John, but I'm still glad they're making such content more widely available.
    On the flip side, I'm not a fan of the fact that they took down all the CC transcripts, even the one for last quarter. Yes, I saved the files, so it's not a huge loss, but it's still less convenient to lose web access to them, and it seems too early for taking down the most recent ones.
    12 Oct 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Let me tie in strong hands, lunch money, bottom feeders and trading costs. That 150 shares at .3 is now mine. Unless I get some more at that price today, I will pay $52 for $45 of stock. When it gets to .5, I'll be able to cover lunch. Don't worry, I'm not going to flood the market and sell them any time soon.
    12 Oct 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    JohnM121: Keep the faith! Price often weakens later in the day!

     

    Also, have you considered an on-line broker with lower rates? I've seen/heard prices as low as $3.95/trade and I know ETrade is $9.95. $7.95 if you trade often enough.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    John, It's sure looking like the market will fill your order but who knows. I hate when that happens. I've had the MM here give me 1 share. Then if you use all or none they dance around you even for blocks that are larger than yours.

     

    We are the Rodney Dangerfield's of the investment community. The small individual investor. No Respect!
    12 Oct 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    I believe that the adage is that novices buy in the morning and older heads wait until end of day.
    12 Oct 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Pretty high volume for a Friday morning, in big chunks too. Some retailer threw in the towel? Previously the controlled selling lightened up on Fridays.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    ramna, if they are hitting the ask the opposite might be true.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: I think that volume was just some incoming shares backing MM daily shorts being disposed of.

     

    Volume likely won't end too high today unless there's a big price drop.

     

    Buy:sell ATM (10:42:39 last trade) is 1:2.53.

     

    I think this is reasonably "normal" after our little pop up - a retrace always catches some leaving late.

     

    With total volume so far (no trades since that time above) ~149.8K, we'll likely end the day on low volume.

     

    But that's normal. And pps is still above the falling 50-day SMA, which should start to flatten over the next week if price just holds steady in the range.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    HTL, could you explain why there are daily shorts? Why is the MM still disposing shares? Aren't the big sellers done now? Thanks.
    12 Oct 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: that's a very long discussion. Briefly, if a market maker doesn't have the shares he's selling in his control, as is likely the case when customer A with shares registered at broker B places a sell order that routes to MM C, FINRA and SEC Reg SHO rules dictate the order *must* be flagged as short.

     

    E.g. if you trade from ETrade, your shares are "in the control" of ETrade. You place a sell order for 100 and maybe the order routes to AUTO or NITE or CDEL and they find a match. But your shares are not "theirs" yet. They do a naked short sale (MMs are exempted from certain of the Reg SHO restrictions - specifically they can short without first borrowing) of your 100 shares and mark the trade as a short sale.

     

    Usually whithin three days after the trade your 100 shares will be in the portfolio of the MM (in his control) and may "net out" through a matching process at DTCC or one of it's operating units (MM C has 100 short, and 100 long now = net position zero). But the MM may have seen an opportunity to "cover" the short shares at a lower price, giving more potential profit. If this has been done before your shares arrive, he is net zero position and when your shares arrive he is net long 100 and likely will sell them into the market.

     

    So each day the MM has a "rolling position" that may be more or less shorter or longer. The MM wants to be market-neutral. So he does whats necessary to move towards that, day in and day out.

     

    That's why he may be "still disposing of shares".

     

    NOTE: this *only* is the case if shares previously short-sold have been offset by a MM "covering buy" and the shares backing the original sell order subsequently flow in. Large well-capitalized MMs *may* be more likely to do covering buys than smaller firms. And market action may also affect the decisions.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, that was perfect. I would hazard a guess that the MM picked up quite a few share when a dump to .2931 occurred.
    12 Oct 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: Yes. From 9/10-10/3 we had 18 consecutive days of VWAP below $0.30. But do keep in mind the MM is not realy "picking up shares". Unlike us retailers that "buy low and then sell high", the market-makers "sell high and then buy low".

     

    Sweet deal if you can get it.

     

    Regardless, as John has pointed out, the MMs don't really want to get long (other than for very short periods, but that's my opinion, not John's) as basically they are just doing arbitrage. So they will be careful, I think, about when they do covering buys if they decide to do so, and will sell as fast as possible.

     

    Since they have the advantage of setting initial market prices and can see deeper in their order book than we can, they are likely to open each day at prices that help insure both quick sale and at least a small profit.

     

    This falls apart if there's a sudden huge surge of trading driving price away from their target. And it's definitely a bit riskier, I think, because it seems that everybody and his brother is a market-maker these days. But only a relative few very large and well-capitalized ones.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    "Oct 11, 2012 - 8:35AM PT

     

    How collaboration can keep cleantech going

     

    BY Beth Comstock, CMO of GE"

     

    http://bit.ly/OYzK70

     

    The Durathon story ... (though probably not the WHOLE story :-) )
    Note that this is written by a GE person.

     

    But it raises the questions ....

     

    Could that be us?
    What if anything did the Zebra guys make on the deal?

     

    Note the mention of data centers ...
    12 Oct 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Just something to muse over the next time the EV crowd argues that there's no problem using lots of copper to make their batteries. After all, the miners will just dig more up!

     

    http://bit.ly/W0ikse
    12 Oct 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget all the spare copper that will be required for the installation of ubiquitous charging infrastructure. The battery demands are nothing compared to running cable to chargers.
    12 Oct 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8845) | Send Message
     
    Thanks LabTech, Interesting.
    12 Oct 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Cables are not a problem. Silver is a better conductor than copper. Gold is a little worse, but there is a lot of gold being horded that could be put to use.
    Conductivity in Siemens/meter
    Silver 6.30 × 10^7
    Copper 5.96 × 10^7
    Gold 4.10 × 10^7
    12 Oct 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29560) | Send Message
     
    I'd completely overlooked the possibility of using silver and gold to augment global copper supplies. Silly me.

     

    Actually, annual copper production is on the order of 16 million tons while silver and gold are 24,000 and 2,700 tons, respectively. So the one mine in the story LabTech linked to is like 2.5% of the global total.
    12 Oct 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like