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  • meow,meow~
    First finally!
    Brass ring!Jackpot! High hat! anyting~~~
    13 Oct 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • silver medal for mi
    13 Oct 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • and bronze. first time in human history. mi trailblazer.
    13 Oct 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » John Petersen's Price and Volume charts were updated in the header after this instablog was issued. They arrived earlier but weren't noticed.


    13 Oct 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • When the 10-day passes thru the 50-day VWAP on Monday will it stay above it this time? Will volume pick-up again next week continuing the trend-line moving up from the July lows?


    How we watch this stock, every week seems important but I think next week is especially important to watch for signs the stock may be coming back from the precipice of death to be re-born.
    13 Oct 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
    13 Oct 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • For me, clicking on the charts as suggested results in a chopped chart, and is thus not very helpful.


    On the other hand, right clicking on them (in Chrome at least) and selecting "open link in new tab" or "open link in new window" presents the whole image in a way I can view it as desired.
    13 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Tim, The version I remember.

    13 Oct 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • A Classic...
    13 Oct 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Wtb: I get the same results. I checked the prior concentrator images and they behave this way too. If you do one in the prior concentrator, does it behave the same too?


    If so, I suspect we may need to e-mail because I checked John's chart properties and they are the same as the prior charts. So I presume SA made a configuration or software change.


    I went and checked one of H. T. Love's and FocalPoint Analytics's


    H.T. Love's behaved badly also while FPA's behaved fine. I suspect the difference is that FPA's had a size applied when it was created and we've never done that on the charts here, if I recall correctly.


    If you'll test and let me know results, I'll e-mail support and see what we can learn.


    Thanks for reporting this.


    13 Oct 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • 162 had the same issue and "fix" for me.


    I don't normally click on those charts, so I don't know how long there's been this problem. Actually I seldom really look at the "preamble" figuring I'm already seen the content that's there since it's often a repeat for those that can read every day.


    One thing I do that's perhaps unusual is that I use the CTRL and "+" to increase the font size. There may be an some weird interaction there.


    As I mentioned, I'm using the Chrome browser, so they may (should they even acknowledge the issue) say I shouldn't be such a rebel :-)
    13 Oct 2012, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Wtb: The <ctrl>+ should only affect text size, which should refresh the page as auto-wrap takes place. Graphics should behave the same regardless.


    I checked using IE9 and Firefox. Behavior is the same - graph gets really big and doesn't scroll. But I seem to recall that that the image has never scrolled if it's opened with a regular left-click, but if you can see the page behind it the page did scroll.


    In both the FF and IE9, the right-click works just as you describe.


    I'll post to SA, but I don't expect much positive out of that.


    14 Oct 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • The much coveted "Jon Springer Damp Rag Award for Dashing Innocent Spirits" goes this week to iindelco for correctly pointing out that the NS999 had not moved and that the picture was only taken from another angle.


    From one winner to the next. Use it with wisdom.


    Sorry can't seem to link the picture of the treasured soiled cloth.
    13 Oct 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Metro, Oh man. I should just keep my mouth shut!!!


    I have to carry this damp musty token of temporary trolldum for a whole week! (Hangs head and fades into the dark silent night.).
    13 Oct 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco/metro/all,


    clarification... the damp rag is an award of honor... going to the person who best muzzled irrational exuberance during the week... not a bad thing... sometimes, we here in this room, need a damp rag...


    here is the picture of the damp rag, though the current holder is free to sully it up into another incarnation


    For those who keep track of such things, the damp rag was first awarded in APC159, and it is passed on by the current holder to a new holder at the end of each week... until someone decides to selfishly keep the damp rag all to themselves
    13 Oct 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Jon, Phew. That's better than my interpretation. ;)


    BTW, I think Metro gave me the wrong damp something? So I'll pass on your award when appropriate since I can't find the other.

    13 Oct 2012, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jon,
    So we should name it the "Jon Springer Damp Rag Award for Muzzling Irrational Exuberance", or the MIE
    14 Oct 2012, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • Shouldn't that be the JSDRA-MIE?
    14 Oct 2012, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • It just became too hard to remember that acronym.
    14 Oct 2012, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • So you're saying that JSDRA-MIE passed the IJBTHTRTA threshold?
    15 Oct 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • All Wet Animal Spirits Honors.




    Use iindelco's wet cat.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin, He is a cute little dickens. Got that Axion's up a penny look on his face! :))

    15 Oct 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Good for weekend reading---a reread of this article from this summer:

    13 Oct 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • "Question regarding "new" posts on Seeking Alpha:"


    I know very little about how to navigate Seeking Alpha. Here's my own little trick to find the next "new" post. When I get done reading at any point, I then ...


    1) Click on the comments of the last person who's made a post;
    2) Click on the "link to comment" of that last post;
    3) Copy the URL;
    4) "Edit" the APC bookmark on my toolbar, and insert the URL


    It takes about 15 seconds, and saves me time searching for where I previously left off.
    13 Oct 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Close but no cigar. Oh well, They got their data.


    Satellite Left Stranded by SpaceX Rocket Falls From Space

    13 Oct 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • I had a dream last night that the end day spike was not at 32c but at 36c.


    Just sharing because I don't know how to follow the APC for new posts without having posting here.
    13 Oct 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Immediately before the first comments there's a line with a tick box that says "Track new comments on this article." If you click the box you'll be notified of new comments whether you contribute or not.


    I like your dream though ...
    13 Oct 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Just before the first comment, after the line telling how many comments there are, click the little box next to "Track new comments on this article".


    13 Oct 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Weird, I had a very similar dream.....
    13 Oct 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Remeber: the brain works at the quantum level without regard to space-time constraints... .36c was merely your brain "seeing" into next week! ;-)
    13 Oct 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Dreams have percolated with me as well since news of the most recent 360 carton purchase of activated carbon though the decimal is offset to the right.


    JP's calculation of historical average PbC sales of roughly $600k per quarter translates as ~ 1,500 batteries @ $400 per or 500 batteries per month. Delivery of 360 cartons (10 tons) in late May followed by delivery of a further 360 cartons in 3rd week of September suggests the first delivery provided carbon supplies sufficient for ~4 months. Throwing out the high and low estimates of PbC output from 10T, we are left with estimates of 12k (Rick K) to 20K (JP) which imply enough PbC electrode production to average 3K to 5K batteries per month or 9K - 15K per quarter. 5K batteries per month is 10X the historical average.


    Now if only NSC would take delivery of the PbC batteries it has under contract and more recent buyers allow public disclosure, share price might respond.
    13 Oct 2012, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • One of the problems with a public company is that saying something more than once is considered very bad form. Once a sale has been announced, it would be very unusual to follow it through the process and announce that the product had been made or shipped because those are presumed to be ordinary and natural consequences of the original contract. Those of us who follow Axion closely might like to have that additional information, but releasing it would be perceived as a sign of weakness by the broader market.
    14 Oct 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma,
    My dreams of 36c usually involve a member of the Swedish womens' volleyball team.
    14 Oct 2012, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • "Once a sale has been announced, it would be very unusual to follow it through the process and announce that the product had been made or shipped because those are presumed to be ordinary and natural consequences of the original contract. Those of us who follow Axion closely might like to have that additional information, but releasing it would be perceived as a sign of weakness by the broader market. "


    I completely agree for most circumstances, JP. Axion's April 26, 2012 NSC "sale" press release (, though, included text defining a time line of 90 - 120 days for shipment. Since the nein-nein-nein remains parked outside the repair shop and apparently unpopulated with batteries, it appears reasonable to infer delivery has not occurred. If so, something has changed or Axion was excessively exuberant and misleading in its announcement. On the surface there are similarities with performance under the Washington Navy Yard Net Zero Energy Project contract versus announced time line. The disparity between announced expectations and actuals realized warrants explanation.
    14 Oct 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • The whole NSC relationship has been anything but ordinary and natural in the metric of timing. I think they have left everyone from the CEO of Axion to us mud floppers frustrated.


    But hey, I've also built multimillion dollar machines and watched them prepare them for shipping with a cutting torch when future program plans shifted. So late wouldn't be so bad in comparison.
    14 Oct 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Granville said in the last conference call that nothing has changed but NS is taking its own sweet time in scheduling the delivery. That is the customer's right. The Navy Yard project was delayed because the prime contractor wasn't ready to integrate the batteries with everything else. It all worked out as planned.


    Twisting the facts to create imaginary problems and then calling the company's public statements misleading is the kind of behavior I'd expect on the Yahoo! message board.
    14 Oct 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • I suspect that the biggest part of Tom's frustration is that he can't share most of what he knows about the NS relationship. The buzz near the root of the grapevine is very excited. A few fluttering leaves at the end of a long branch don't mean much.
    14 Oct 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • John, I suspect you're right but I'm also sure that TG's inability to stimulate NSC to advance the applications they are working on together has to be somewhat frustrating. I recall early on Axion offering some incentive to no avail in this area. And yes we have some plausible reasons why NSC might have delayed the program such as weather, scheduling, other loco priorities and the newly announced government grant. All valid possibilities for sure. Oh, and the once bitten twice shy thought given the horrible performance of the original deep cycle Odyssey LABs. I'm sure Messrs Barbee and Thelen don't want to go through that again.


    As both DRich and yourself have pointed out they will and do move at their own pace. We've got plenty of evidence to support that thought.
    14 Oct 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Big companies just move at their own pace. I can remember sitting around for two months with cash burning a hole in my pocket as I waited for a major oil company to schedule a closing on a property that we'd bought with a prior effective date.


    It's just the nature of the beast. In a a lot of ways big companies are like the dinosaurs where it took a long time for a nerve signal to go from the tail to the brain and back.


    Investors invariably want customers to handle like a Ferrari but most big companies handle like supertankers. It may be tough getting them to move in the direction you want, but once they're moving they stay in motion for a long, long time.
    14 Oct 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Understood.


    Since I lived it , after it ceased to be a monopoly, a good example. Didn't deal with upper management but even the high mid level managers didn't even know what business they were in. Rail has some monopoly heritage as well.

    14 Oct 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Sometimes I wonder whether these bit companies don't have sign-off chains that more closely resemble a bowl of fettucini.
    14 Oct 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco---thanks for the article.


    1) Funny how hard it can be to enact common sense.


    2) Somebody's gotta hire that Whitacre guy. Yesterday, if not sooner.
    14 Oct 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Best Comment Award for Concetrator 163 goes to Metro...
    14 Oct 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • OR---r u high? 8^P See wtb's post below!
    14 Oct 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I: I read WTB's post *after* I read metro's.


    Sorry metro, but I have to renege of the BCA above ;-(
    14 Oct 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • I used to have to write my own AR's (appropriation requests) to fund projects. This would include the business case and facilities/tooling plans for the portion of the vehicle at a specific plant site. Depending on the size it would have various sign off levels. For each level of sign off you'd have to change huge aspects of the business case to make it go forward. By the time you got your money what was signed off at each level had nothing to do with the level before and the project appeared to be nothing like what was actually done. A ship full of non contributors with infinite power at their respective levels.


    Also, it would take so long for large projects all they added was risk to the program because you were already late. It was like trying to built s--t in wonderland. Got so bad at some times I was being asked to lie by managers with my reputation. My answer...never.


    When I read these articles all I can do is shake my head. It's like many things we experience in our different paths. You have to see it to believe it. And for people like yourself you can't talk about lots of it.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I.


    Mr. Whitacre was asked by Obama to take the job and also asked by him to stay on. He declined on the latter request after due consideration and resigned. I'm sure he was mentally fatigued.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • "Twisting the facts to create imaginary problems and then calling the company's public statements misleading is the kind of behavior I'd expect on the Yahoo! message board."


    Until I read that statement, I pretty much accepted this blog's generally low opinion of the Yahoo! message board. You just gave cause for reconsideration.


    Whether you like it or not the FACTS are that Axion issued two press releases announcing PbC battery sales contracts with clearly stated delivery timelines that were not met. Intentional or not those press releases mislead investors into expecting revenues consistent with the announced contract completion schedules. And the statement, "something has changed or Axion was excessively exuberant and misleading in its announcement" is factually sound and accurate.


    If there is any "twisting the facts" here, it is by you, not me.


    Yes, Tom Granville said in the last conference call that nothing had changed and the NS batteries would be delivered when they were asked for by the buyer. But spoken words are not as widely disseminated as PR announcements and can be cheaper than printed words. And, Tom Granville has made a number of statements that did not prove out for one reason or another. Tom Granville said in August, 2011 that a contract with NS could be expected by October, 2011 which did not materialize, reportedly due to NS decision to perform an environmental assessment report for EPA before proceeding. Tom Granville also projected in the '11Q4 conference call that a trebling of revenues was expected this year which he walked back from. Tom Granville never mentioned the possibility that funding of the $475K NS contract was contingent on award of a $400K Federal Transit Authority grant. And, MY MEMORY of Tom Granville's remarks about the Navy Yard Net Zero Energy Project is that he attributed delay in delivery of Axion's PbC battery system to delay in performance by A contractor on that battery system -- not THE contractor, or project prime contractor.
    14 Oct 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • The truth or falsity of all statements is determined when they are made. Whether we like it or not business relationships are fluid and any time you have two parties to an agreement the actions of the other party are not in your control. Forward looking statements are NEVER misleading unless the speaker does not believe them when they are spoken. Constructions schedules slip. Delays are a fact of life. If you believe any statements from Axion have been misleading you should sell immediately and completely.
    15 Oct 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Hi JP,
    New article on SA you might be interested in or maybe repulsed by.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • I love these straw man articles because they invariably provide an opportunity to educate.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • Metro-
    Thanks. You can be counted on to bring a smile.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • >If you believe any statements from Axion have been misleading you should sell immediately and completely.


    Yes, but we know that to some degree, misleading statements are par for the course for human beings. What humans say in general has to be taken with a grain of salt. There is the element of hopium (which has its good side, I dare say it gives many reason to get up in the morning) and the element of self-protection, self-promotion, etc.
    But one has only companies run by humans to invest in. And the AXPW risk/reward balance is nicely in our favor at the moment.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • The word 'mislead' is an active verb that suggests an affirmative intent to deceive.


    Whenever you use it, you are saying the speaker is deliberately lying for the purpose of deceiving you or somebody else.


    There is no such thing as an accidental misleading statement.


    In the securities business the word 'misleading' is right up there with liar and cheat on the list of all time fighting words.


    There is a huge difference between forward looking statements about the expected timing of events that prove to be inaccurate in 20/20 hindsight and calling them a lie from the get-go.


    My advice stands. If you believe any statements from Axion have been misleading you should sell immediately and completely.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • and I had already prepared an acceptance speech.
    16 Oct 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • Don't you just hate it when somebody like wtblanchard comes along and trumps your moment in the sun?
    16 Oct 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • "My advice stands. If you believe any statements from Axion have been misleading you should sell immediately and completely. "


    Advice that has been noted and taken under advisement.


    And just as with your advice my statement, "something has changed or Axion was excessively exuberant and misleading in its announcement" is factually sound and accurate" stands.


    Take note that the word your comments focus on is preceded in the sentence by "something has changed or".
    16 Oct 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • 10/12/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 238970, AvTrSz: 6828
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3108
    # Buys, Shares: 20 104095, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3121
    # Sells, Shares: 15 134875, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3098
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.30 (43.6% “buys”), DlyShts 34150 (14.3%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.32%


    On the traditional TA front, we continue to see reducing volume coming off the bump up to a high of $0.334 on 10/9 with price holding strong at $0.30 or more (only ~11K traded below that price since). What I am calling a “pause” and is normally termed “short-term consolidation” seems to be going on and there are, as yet, no signs of a lengthening of a leg down. The lows are staying right around the 50-day SMA (which, as I mentioned before, will change from descending to flattening).


    In the three days subsequent to that high, we've had generally lower highs and higher lows (price compression), a further indication of consolidation. Our intra-day VWAPs ($0.3105, $0.3160 and $0.3108) have stayed above all the SMAs (all but the 200-day are at $0.3038 or lower) by a penny or more except the 200-day SMA at $0.3726. The 200-day has begun to flatten out and will shortly begin a substantial rise, eventually going parabolic, unless price drops really big-time (like 5 to 10 cents or more quite quickly).


    A notable thing about the price action is that it is supporting my contention that volatility is leaving our beloved penny stock for now. We've not had this many days hovering around or above the 50-day SMA since a long-term consolidation ended back on 5/15. That extended period around and above the 50-day SMA ran from 4/3 (a bit over two months after hitting $0.64) through 5/14, about 1.5 months.


    A few oscillators have, naturally, begun to weaken, going from slightly bullish towards more neutral as we consolidate. But the RSI is more bullish at 64+ than last time we were in this range off a short run up (peaking at 61+ during 7/20-7/30 period, which has a similar price-action configuration and range). This “positive divergence” is considered important by many of the traditional TA folks and should be given some weight, although I personally am unsure of how much. MFI, a money-flow oscillator, is also still strong at ~79.2, just below “overbought” and also stronger than in that prior period.


    Between the 50-day SMA and the falling resistance (currently ~$0.32) it looks like price is trying to decide whether to break down or up or just go sideways for a while. At least we did pull away from the descending support, as I was hoping we would. I don't believe we'll revisit it (now at ~$0.265 and falling) because there's several *minor* support points above it.


    With the 10-day SMA having just crossed above the 50, and the 20-day not far behind (about a penny) with slightly lower prices getting ready to fall out of the measurement period, I'm thinking that our exit should be up towards the $0.33 range or above again. But that thought is likely influenced by wishful thinking, not dispassionate analysis.


    What's my experimental stuff suggesting (and am I interpreting it correctly)?


    First, a note on today's average trade size. We know that 4 trades totaling 100K shares for Poul went off, two at 50K and 40K respectively. Backing those two out would move today's value from right in all the averages and on the long-term trend line, looking to be right in the midst of “retail” sizes, to 4,418 – below what appears to be long-term (around 4 months) “normal” retail trading ranges. This would also bump our VWAP slightly to $0.3114.


    Our daily short-sales percentages continue to trend towards lower peaks and higher valleys, with all the averages becoming more consolidated with our 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively standing at 27.74%, 24.67%, 25.74% and 26.52%. We did have that double spike on 10/3 and 10/5 as we exited the 18-days below a VWAP of $0.30, but that should be expected as profit-takers appear.


    Our low, high and VWAP price are above the 10 and 25-day averages and, for all intents and purposes, at the 50-day average. Prices have been in an up trend since 10/1, risking becoming one of the longer runs up in recent times if our move from here is up.


    Our buy:sell has begun to recover from the recent profit taking and is moving back toward the “buy” averages of 55%, 48%, 50% and 54%, for my usual average intervals – 10, 25, 50 and 100 days.


    Following this stuff is my last extended discussion of daily short sales unless something extraordinary happens. I feel that I've about exhausted the circumstantial evidence suggesting that market-makers do get long and do affect both our intra-day and multi-day price action. No evidence has been presented to counter my conclusions and to continue discussing it sans any contrary facts that might circumstantially refute my conclusions would be wasteful of everybody's time and interest.


    That discussion has been omitted from the concentrator in consideration of the participants here.


    When I do a new instablog, I will be pursuing the inflection point calculations which seems to have offered some promise of leading price changes. A more in-depth visual inspection of my preliminary charts for them has reinforced that preliminary conclusion and they appear to hold great promise.


    13 Oct 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • dunno why you back out poul data for inflection calcs. attrition should be built into the formula.
    13 Oct 2012, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu: they are backed out only for discussion of the average trade size (and sometimes VWAP). And that's only because they are outliers both intra-day and inter-day, for the most part.


    I don't remove them from the presented results, but only discuss the point to let folks know that there was an outlier that can skew the results. That's so they can make their own assessment of what's presented.


    14 Oct 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Can you safely eliminate buy-side transactions as outliers when the available data indicates that 60% of the selling over the last two and a half years has come from a half-dozen accounts? After all, it seems to me that an 8,000,000 share seller is a far more important outlier than a 100,000 share buyer.


    I was pleased to see the weekly FINRA short sales percentage fall into the low teens because it seems to support my conjecture that shares moving from paper to street have represented the lion's share of reported short sales over the last couple years. It will be really interesting to see if the drop-off continues or a rebound sets in.
    14 Oct 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • As to the outlier being safely removed, I don't have any feelings about if it should be removed or not.


    I just mention it because on a low-volume day, ~239K, that transaction would skew the results significantly. Since what I believe I'm trying to assess is *general* sentiment, and from that some potential forward behavior, a transaction representing ~42% of the day's volume could influence results in a way that *might* be misleading.


    As to the shorts, they've been bouncing around ever since we started watching them. I wouldn't read much into yet - as we know the peaks have been getting lower and the lows higher for quite sometime. I *do* read into that compression that volatility seems to be reducing, most likely as big sellers exit stage left.


    From the most recent low percentage on 10/10, we went up two days and now down one. Generally, same old behavior IMO. Generally, just smaller degrees of movement thus far.


    If we really want to know about certificates, I can do fails-to-deliver. That's the truth teller here. Short sales are just too muddied by the mechanics of market-making.


    14 Oct 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • You and I have very different theories about what the FINRA short data means and I respect you too much to argue based on incomplete data. While I agree that it's too early to reach conclusions, I also expect the next few weeks to add a lot of clarity.


    The problem with the fails to deliver data I've seen is that it seems to be a rolling cumulative total that doesn't segregate new fails added from old fails cleared.
    14 Oct 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • John: re the fails ...


    The lack of segregation is a problem. But the values presented are cumulative, taking into account new fails and fails being closed by deliveries.


    It does have a *very* small component that may *infrequently* occur from "normal" non-certificate causes, but it's inconsequential.


    I've got some partially completed spreadsheets I started long ago that offset F2Ds three days so that some relationship to reported shorts might appear, but I stopped it when it seemed that daily shorts were good enough.


    The value in them, I think, is not going to lie so much in the day-to-day values shown over the last couple years, but the *change* in trend that should be seen as the last of the big sellers holding certificates left the scene. E.g., say we'd been seeing a couple hundred thousand a month for an extended period and then we see that start to fall off and reach ... 75K or something like that.


    That would provide confirmation re the certificated folks reducing the selling due to exhaustion ... possibly.


    But I don't think it's critical to confirm this way - other things, including your tracking, are providing that confirmation I think.


    14 Oct 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • The point is I wouldn't believe my tracking data without confirmation from the FINRA short data. If you look at my recent Instablog on the Anatomy of a Supply and Demand Imbalance the gross numbers in the "educated conjecture" category are far larger than the "reported transactions." I could give detailed explanations for each of the educated conjectures and make a convincing case, but at the end of the day we can't 'know.'


    The bottom line is there isn't enough rubber in the FINRA short data for both of us to be right. If the overwhelming majority (98%+) of the reported FINRA shorts since April 2010 have arisen from sales of restricted stock, then my tracking is accurate and we're emerging from the woods. If a significant portion of the FINRA shorts have arisen from market maker games, then my tracking data is garbage and we've got miles to go before we sleep.
    14 Oct 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for being candid guys about what you don't know. Sure sounds like an expert is needed to resolve the meaning of the FINRA short reports.
    14 Oct 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • John: re your last paragraph, not necessarily so.


    Things change as time passes. When the certificated folks first started jumping out and volume was low there might have been very little effect from market-only action. As volume started to increase it becomes a more attractive equity for MMs to play in. They live on volume.


    So my take is that percentage composition of certificate-caused shorting and "normal" MM-caused shorting has changed over time.


    *If* volume remains strong and the certificated sellers are (almost totally?) exhausted, I'm expecting it to remain attractive to market-makers. And that will keep daily shorts in some reasonable range, as is seen on many other high-volume stocks. If volume plummets as certificated folks are exhausted, then short volume (and/or percentage) should plunge too as MMs decided the volume is insufficient.


    We may already have some confirmation, although my memory doesn't go back this far. If someone else remembers ...


    Was there a time when we saw, generally, many *fewer* market-makers on the scene than we generally see now? If so, this might be suggestive of a change related to volume attracting market-makers. ISTR that we had some new ones (to us?) recently identified, maybe EGRO, BTIG, CDEL, NITE started playing more, ... others?


    As you say, we can never *know* though.


    Regardless, I can't see your data points being garbage. Only that what was being tracked may have been experiencing a gradual behavioral change due to such things as I mention and maybe other things too. So they could've initially been *highly* accurate and trended towards less accuracy as time passed and the environment changed. Or maybe not.


    14 Oct 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • i added some thoughts about this here:



    i don't think you can back it out because the formula is made to predict when buyers or sellers take control of the price action.
    14 Oct 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • That's why I think patterns over the next few weeks will be critically important. My conjecture numbers for 2010 and 2011 seem pretty bullet proof. My 2012 conjecture only hold if the patterns established in 2010 and 2011 remained stable. Before the adoption of Regulation SHO market makers in OTC stocks could and would game you to death. Since Regulation SHO, the gaming has shifted to the national exchanges and the OTC's gotten pretty vanilla. So far I can't identify anything that would cause market maker behavior to change. In any event I sincerely hope you're wrong on this one.
    14 Oct 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • I'm looking at charts for 4/26/10-1/14/11. 25-day average short varies from roughly 18% to a maximum of roughly 47%. Visually, centered around ~30% it looks like. A trend line for that metric has a mild negative slope.


    Looking at 12/23/10-1/13/12 low of 25-day average is around 18% still and high is around 53% or so. But if I draw a trend line it has a *decidedly* negative slope, originating around 46% +/- and terminating around 28% +/-, much steeper negative slope than the '10 chart.


    The February '12 to-date chart has a 25-day average with a low of around 13% and a high of around 31%. The trend line, which I just added, is decidedly positive, originating around 16% and terminating currently around 28%+. Extended to twelve months would put termination roughly at 44%. The trend is likely to flatten as I think volatility is being reduced now.


    Given the differing time periods, there's lots of potential slop here. If there was much worth in it, I could put them to covering similar extents. But I'm not feeling we'd get much out of it.


    14 Oct 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • The only way I can parse the data is on an annual basis, but I show total reported volume, short volume and percentage short as follows:


    2010 – 19,613,500 – 5,290,618 – 26.97%
    2011 – 77,691,400 – 28,624,048 – 36.84%
    2012 – 68,412,971 – 20,233,581 – 29.58%


    When you factor in the double count, it suggests that something on the order of 60% of sell-side transactions involved restricted stock.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • i think we've past the inflection point personally. the shorter 5 day/10 day stuff will flip positive neg as we base, but buyers are now in control as far as i am concerned. without volume # attached to particular transactions we can call buy or sell past data is hard to interpret. thankfully HTL has been keeping track of AXPW in needed detail since feb.


    if that data is available on foreign exchanges we can back test the inflection thingy, otherwise we need to just run it on stocks with similar volume profile.
    14 Oct 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with you Mathieu. I believe the big holders who've made life miserable for two and a half years are either out of stock, or have been whittled down to small enough positions that they can't push the market around. When the long suffering buyers finally realize that they're in control, things will change.
    14 Oct 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • John,


    Recall that someone (F Kru?) discovered that 2010 data was available back through Jan. Me being me I went and captured it at the time JIC it might go off the cliff.


    Just ran my progs over the whole set and thought I would offer it up if it adds anything.


    _Year __Tot Vol___ _Sht w/Ex_ _ShtnoEx_ Shw/Ex ShNoEx
    _2010 021,529,406 06,026,229 06,026,229 27.99% 27.99%
    _2011 074,866,524 28,606,288 28,588,528 38.21% 38.19%
    _2012 068,358,171 19,942,769 19,651,957 29.17% 28.75%
    Totals 164,754,101 54,575,286 54,266,714 33.13% 32.94%


    The 2010, as mentioned, includes the Jan through early-April stuff. I'm unsure of the reason for the 2011 totals difference. I'll be glad to e-mail spreadsheets or raw data or formatted if you like. There's always a possibility I'm missing some days.


    14 Oct 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • I'm just running four columns in an Excel spreadsheet


    B-Total Volume,
    C-Total Short, and
    D-Percentage Short.


    Since there's always a possibility of holes in my data set or some other errors in the data, it never hurts to get a comparison set and see where the differences lie.


    I've previously ignored the pre-April data for 2010 because the serious pushing and shoving didn't start until the resale registration statement went effective in mid-April, but I may as well have it all. It's like Dad always said, you can never have too much information.
    14 Oct 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • John: let me do a verification of that 2011 first and see if I'm missing any days. Once I'm sure of it, I'll forward a csv file with the goodies.


    14 Oct 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • would it flip the 25 day positive? because i am surprised it isn't already positive? thanks
    14 Oct 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu: which 25? And I've lost track of which "it" we are talking of?


    15 Oct 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • the 25 day:buy:sell inflection calc, i expected it's slope to be > 0. thanks!
    15 Oct 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu: and the "it" that would cause the flip? Do you mean if I back out that 100K order?


    15 Oct 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • reading comprehension fail @
    15 Oct 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu: LoL! Me or you? I know I've had such problems occasionally. But more often it's losing track of what's being discussed bewteen all the instablogs, daily SA articles, ...


    But if I do back it out, 25-day inflection does go from flat to continuing slightly up.


    15 Oct 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Me. i am trying to figure out now why 25 day is negative versus the rest. i thought you'd backed out Poul's data. and figured that contributed to the negative slope. the opposite is true >.<
    15 Oct 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Poul's buy was a "sell" for 90K of the 100K.


    EDIT: Could've been 100K "sells" - just depends on which ones we think went to his order!
    15 Oct 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Oh, man! I'm never first. I might as well live on Pluto (the planet, not the dog)!
    13 Oct 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • It's not a planet, it's some sort of body now. I'd take a second look at the dog.
    13 Oct 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • AONE shows off their offering for replacing LABs for telecom UPS apps. Nice cutaway showing the packaging and the BMS. Light on the back, heavy on the wallet.

    14 Oct 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • NS - Yes - Yes - Yes!!!!


    Received this today:


    "about a week ago 999 was brought into the shop to begin work on it."
    14 Oct 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • wtb---Yeehah! Post of the month!!!


    Significant in SO many ways. Long way to go, of course, but:


    I can't wait for the doubters in the RR industry to be rocked by the PbC.


    I can't wait for the doubters of Axion to be rocked by the PbC.


    Since this single action prob won't be PR'd, we'll get another indication of how much this blog shakes the investment money tree. IF this news helps extent our little rally, we may get the chance to see how well the big sellers have been cleared out. I almost feel sorry for Q--first got in near the top, finally out near the bottom.
    14 Oct 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • WTB: Great news! Thanks.
    14 Oct 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • WTB. You get the post of the week gold star for sure. And at the beginning of the week as well. Impeccable in both content and timeliness.


    The gold star will be simonized upon arrival.


    Forward intelligence is great.


    Not going to use my wet rag to dampen this message. :)
    14 Oct 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Thats ok news.


    (Does that put me in contention for the JSDRA-MIE? Maybe I need to make a better effort.)


    Perhaps, they are just shining the wheels, or they don't want it to catch a cold during the winter.
    14 Oct 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Post of the QUARTER! That news should cause mention of battery shipments occurring after (or just before?) EOQ in the next cc report. It *might* allow mention of some anticipated time line for NS-999. Maybe other stuff too?


    If shipped before EOQ, changes in AR and inventory will deliver useful information, when combined with the carbon shipment information.


    14 Oct 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Great stuff WTB, thanks for being ever vigilant on the NS front.
    14 Oct 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • "NS - Yes - Yes - Yes!!!!"


    Also impressive is that within 40 minutes from that message was placed it had received 10 Likes. On a Sunday afternoon (early evening over here).
    14 Oct 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • That's great news WT and may just be the Post of the YEAR. There's nothing that makes investors more nervous than a lack of activity. Now that we know the supertanker has turned a corner, let's hope it continues to gain speed.
    14 Oct 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • NS--Aye-Aye-Aye! ;)
    14 Oct 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz, Some people will do anything to get an award. Even a damp one! lol


    But alas, It requires a week of contribution for final assessment before an (Pronunciation J-Emmy award) is awarded. Besides, Now that I know it's not so bad......
    14 Oct 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • When follow up orders for batteries for more NS - Yes - Yes - Yes's are ordered it won't be buckle your seatbelt, it will be hold on to your shorts. Thanks for your dilligence WTB. Checked off another box in my "milestones for success". Several more important milestones over next 12-14 months.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Great update WT. This would seem to mesh well with the theory that they were waiting on the grant to come through before beginning work.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • I was fond of the triple-secret TFH theory that the NS decision makers were closet Axionistas who wanted to see the sloppy shares cleaned up first.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Now we're up to 27 likes already. On a Sunday. Could be interesting this week.


    Update: 29.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor,
    Q may have opportunity to pick up 2,800,000 shares in January.
    14 Oct 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • metro--you might sell 1/2 your position?
    14 Oct 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Not without writing a $2.1 million check to Axion. The only way I see those warrants getting exercised is as part of Axion's next financing round. If the offering price was high enough Q could sell the underlying stock in the offering, use the proceeds to pay the exercise price and walk away with a check for the spread between $.75 and the offering price. Without an earth shattering change, I don't see Q putting more Axion shares in its portfolio.
    14 Oct 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • That is wonderful news!
    14 Oct 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
    14 Oct 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Wow,
    Thanks for keeping in touch with your contacts. Great news.
    14 Oct 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • "about a week ago 999 was brought into the shop to begin work on it."


    Wonderful news. Now we wait for its re-emergence with a fully populated battery pack (presumably).
    14 Oct 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • ummmm..... make that 48 Likes!!!
    14 Oct 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • 48 Likes. Makes you think that some people are really reading these concentrators doesn't it.
    14 Oct 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • 58 likes now.
    So more than one third of the 166 followers are reading the APC regularly.
    15 Oct 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • "NS--Aye-Aye-Aye! ;) "


    I like. Abbreviates to NS-AAA?
    15 Oct 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • 62 within 24 hours!
    15 Oct 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • >magounsq ... Seems Axion has the same problem Facebook has. How do you monetize "Likes"?


    I'd say the buying today is somewhat less than enthusiastic than we are. Still, I hope that NSC gets NS999 out for testing in the dead of winter for a good show. I'd find the cold weather test more illuminating to the costumers than the heat of summer but I know what the results should be since the original was trotted out in a Siberian winter.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • DR


    Fair enough...I usually keep emotionally low key, but the "paint drying" got the better of me.
    I usually cringe at overly emotional positive posts, and get annoyed at the trolls.


    ya gut me!
    15 Oct 2012, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • WTB:
    Thanks, excellent news!!!.
    Have a good day.
    14 Oct 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Post of the year as far as I am concerned WT! I am watching Felix B.'s jump live from a zillion feet up trying to break the speed of sound with his body:
    14 Oct 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • This is officially crazy.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Watched some on youtube. No background to get a sense of the speed but when you see the vapor trail......well. Nuff said.
    14 Oct 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • What's officially crazy?


    A guy jumping toward earth from 24 miles up or the fervor with which 60 some odd people follow this Concentrator? (me included)
    15 Oct 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,
    This isn't the first time I have been accused of being an odd or crazy person. ;-)
    15 Oct 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • A little co-dependent maybe, but not crazy.


    I sure don't know what I'd be doing if I didn't have this crew to fall back on as a research resource and BS detector.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, WTB!!
    14 Oct 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Now the NS-ja-ja-ja??
    14 Oct 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Good news. Britain's Met Office is quietly reporting that global warming ended 16 years ago. –
    14 Oct 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Now finally I understand why the shares of Vestas (windmill manufacturer) have been steadily falling for several years.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Hey-hey-hey. Does this mean the end of start/stop?
    14 Oct 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Not likely. It took decades for the global warming frenzy to take root and now that the interests are entrenched they won't give up easily or quickly. Besides, even if CO2 proves to be a non-issue that's no reason to run a 200 hp engine to power your accessories while you're stopped at a light.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Global warming has been going on for at least 10,000 years, with intermittent mini ice ages mixed in.


    Pottery studies conducted by Dr. Heather McKillop (funny, I just ran across her business card this morning) show that the oceans have risen over 1 meter during the past 1000 years.


    The study was conducted off the Belizian coast, where broken shards of brine clay pots were found scattered around fire places at one meter beneath the surface. The burned wood charred remains were carbon dated.


    The study can be read in Heather's excellent book title; "Salt: White Gold Of The Ancient Maya."


    Sorry, JP, but to predict that global warming "ended exactly" 16 years ago is pretty ridiculous. Near laughably imprecise. I'm much more worried about a mile high wall of ice coming at me!


    bang: That jump from near heaven was riveting! Glad you watched it. It qualifies to me as a one of those events you will always recall exactly where you were....


    Darn near as important as WTB's info!
    14 Oct 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • I'm a dedicated global warming agnostic and as such I don't have any opinions, much less an ability to make predictions. I just provide links to the news and let readers draw their own conclusions. I do agree, however, that the end of global warming is nowhere near as momentous as WT's mole report.
    14 Oct 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John, you may be agnostic about warming but here on the coast of Maine we can't be agnostic about ocean acidification and its effects on all calcium containing sea life. We have lost the clams along our own shore as their shells have dissolved and we have locations where the mud has become so acid that clams that are seeded dissolve within a week. If the pH of your blood had changed as much as the pH of the ocean, you would be comatose. Everyone thought that the ocean was limitless sink for the one third of the CO2 produced. Not so.
    14 Oct 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • "bang: That jump from near heaven was riveting! Glad you watched it. It qualifies to me as a one of those events you will always recall exactly where you were..."


    Pretty scary when he was tumbling like crazy. I was worried he would black out. He did it! He broke the sound barrier by a bunch. Over 1,000 miles an hour in freefall!
    14 Oct 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Poul, I'd say no for an added reason. I've never been a CO2 believer but there are other things I'd focus on that are tied to CO2 I think we can all agree are important. Pollution in concentrated areas and fuel prices. These things are not going to get better with age without constant focus in many areas. SS is but one step in a long journey.
    14 Oct 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • "We have lost the clams along our own shore as their shells have dissolved and we have locations where the mud has become so acid that clams that are seeded dissolve within a week. If the pH of your blood had changed as much as the pH of the ocean, you would be comatose. Everyone thought that the ocean was limitless sink for the one third of the CO2 produced."


    Might be that oceanic acidification has happened along the coast of Maine at a much faster rate than elsewhere. Cold waters do absorb more CO2 than warmer water, but if CO2 emissions and cold water temperatures are the explanation for Maine coastal acidification should not other cold water areas also reflect the same degree of acidification? And, according to NOAA analyses, the worlds oceans have been warming for the past 40 years.


    Might a change in deep water currents be in play along the coast of Maine?
    15 Oct 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • They are certainly reporting no such thing! I find it particularly damning that while the article complains about the 2011 release ending in 2010 (a warmer el Nino year) the graph shown (NOT produced by the Met Office by the way) deceivingly starts right at the peak of the incredibly warm El Nino year!


    Anybody looking at the longer data sets and claiming they can back out a reliable conclusion of an end to global warming is either incompetent or lying. Normal variation from oceanic and other cycles are just too noisy to justify conclusions about a decade or two with cherry-picked end points!


    Of course, we're getting near the point where normal decadal variation won't dominate any more, but the last 16 years don't look much different than the late 80s and 90s until the 1997 peak blew away all previous records:
    15 Oct 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, but that is a pure junk science article and the focus on a single plot of surface temperature overlooks several aspects of the global heat budget. The earth continues to accumulate heat at an alaming rate, most of it going to warming of the oceans. An explanation of how the global heat budget works can be found here:
    15 Oct 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • For U.S., not global.

    15 Oct 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • This article completes the politicizing circle of the anthrowarming topic. The one thing which can be inferred is that the science may not be settled, and the models unreliable, but the politics are very predictable.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • For anybody looking for a reliable sorce of information on climate change, I recommend the skeptical science website. They keep up to date with the latest research and do a good job of providing both simple and advanced explanations.

    15 Oct 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • "For anybody looking for a reliable sorce of information on climate change, I recommend the skeptical science website. "


    I have perused a large number of "climate" related web sites over the past five years and say bluntly that I do not/would not recommend it as a reliable source of information. The only thing I have found skeptical of is any form of argument against the anthropogenic warming hypothesis/religion.


    With that observation, I bid the topic adieu on this blog as the discussion has become more than incidental.
    15 Oct 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart, I live on the outermost island off of Maine, and have been following local warming, shellfish reproduction, and lobster fishing for decades. The data are confusing, at best.


    It is true we have lost a significant number of non-economic species, such as dog whelk, mussels, and to a lesser degree, barnacles. yet our lobster crop, which should be the most impacted by pH changes, is stronger than ever. This year was particularly peculiar, with very high water temperatures (and even warmer farther offshore), huge numbers of very young breeder females, soft shells in the early spring (usually late July), and a tremendous increase in soft shell lobsters.


    I thought a few years ago acidification would be a disaster for Maine. The actual results are extremely ambiguous. The lobster crop is the largest ever. Very strange. Easy to point fingers if you don't care about the data. I do not know what is happening, except that most pundits are ignorantly spouting partisan bs.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • For those interested, I've put up a minimal new instablog that incorporates the buy:sell inflection point calculations charting.



    14 Oct 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • from Altoona Works on Face Book 45 minutes ago:


    "NS 999 BP4 experimental all-battery-powered yard locomotive has been moved into the Juniata Shops for an upgrade of its batteries and control computers. Look for the "green weenie" to be testing in Rose yard again in the future."


    The comment stream on the post sounds pessimistic. Hope our new technology blows their doors off.


    Edit, another quote from the comment stream:
    "For the record, NS has spent quite a bit of their own money on the 999, around $4 million or more, without looking at the news articles."
    14 Oct 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Pascquale,
    Nice collaboration of data. Viva la Green Weenie.




    -UL Certification for HUB - December 2012
    -NS complete work on NS999 - December 2012
    -NS Order for OTR locomotive batteries - December 2012
    -Begin vehicle testing with top 5 Asian producer - March 2013
    -Begin vehicle testing with BMW - March 2013
    -Testing results Ontario for HUB - March 2013


    Corrections or extensions welcomed, as gives me something to anticipate.
    15 Oct 2012, 03:18 AM Reply Like
  • too late to edit in.
    As had originally begun these milestones a month or so ago and they are fluid, per DRich, it appears that NS OTR locomotive battery order will be delayed.
    15 Oct 2012, 03:46 AM Reply Like
  • and that should read "oorroboration" vice "collaboration". Often have trouble expressing myself in my native language.


    Curious to see if NS999 news will be picked up by anyone other than Axionistas and if it will have any impact on price today. Probably no one else following it so closely. My SWAG is minimal impact as the sale was already announced, but would like to be pleasantly surprised. If there is no impact, the news at least helps to build a more solid foundation for larger orders and a future increment in share price.
    15 Oct 2012, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: Good Morning


    What can we expect from the Power Cube and Mini Cube (Navy)?


    Have a good day. Carlos.
    15 Oct 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Carlos,
    You've brought up a good point, I'm not sure what the time frame on testing of the Navy Zero Energy Building Mini-cube is. I'll add it to my list for February 2012 for CC.


    Last milestone I had for PC was getting PJM to begin pay for performance. Would be nice to see some data about payback, but don't know if we will. It seems we are just waiting on sales now..
    15 Oct 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: BMW is expected to perform fleet testing as their next step, not simple vehicle testing (that latter term is usually used to describe a small number of test vehicles).
    15 Oct 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Good catch pascquale! the FB link...

    15 Oct 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • >pascquale ... Just got back from Altoonaworks on Facebook. Good to see that confirmation but a little surprised how hostile the comments are. I've told this board that a battery loco was not viewed in a favorable light among those I've talked to but nothing like as nasty as the FB commenters. I really don't understand why.


    Here's to the 4th attempt being the one that works. I wouldn't think anyone in the market would pay any attention until maybe 2Q13 after a little rolling around testing gets reported in a NSC CC.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • According to the grant application, vehicle testing with BMW has already begun. If that is correct, the next move would be to fleet testing.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Hmm,
    My understanding, and maybe I'm wrong, is that BMW is now doing 3rd party testing and then would begin vehicle testing and if all that is successful the last step would be fleet testing. IIRC with relation to Asian OEM, the term used was vehicle testing within six months.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • They've already done vehicle testing. IIRC, fleet testing is next.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • "Curious to see if NS999 news will be picked up by anyone other than Axionistas and if it will have any impact on price today."


    I tend to expect no affect on share price until NS-Yes-Yes-Yes performance information starts surfacing. That is, there might be a slight bump on sighting of the locomotive moving under its own power outside the Altoona shop(s).
    15 Oct 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • >Drich: I don't think Green is in much of the country ... well let's say 50% of the country. And our political discourse (including energy issues) is pretty nasty (as it has been since the Founding.) So I'm not surprised at the tone ... especially given these folks don't have the information we do. I just posted something there giving them a bit more info ... we'll see if I get any response, or whether it's already a "tired out" comment.


    And truly, it doesn't matter. As JP and others are fond or saying, now it's up to the battery.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Went back and listened to last CC and at about the 14:30 mark, TG said that it may be possible to begin vehicle testing with Asian OEM within next six months. At 24:40 mark, TG said that current 3rd party testing with BMW (six to eight months), if completed successfully would then lead to last step which would be fleet testing..
    Thanks for correcting me, that is good news for me.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for double checking my recollection. After all, I was too lazy to do it myself.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Seems to me their skepticism is understandable given the level of greenwash we've seen in other areas.


    Also, they don't know the PbC like we do.


    I don't get the sense that the FB skeptics are people whose opinions will effect NS decisions or the execution of the testing.


    Overall, I'm still psyched to see some progress.


    15 Oct 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich,
    I think one of the problems with the negative feedback for NS999 has to do with all the negative feedback surrounding EVs. People see the failings of the Leaf in Arizona, or bankruptcies associated with the President's green initiative, and so anything that is termed "green" becomes a target. IMHO.
    15 Oct 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
    15 Oct 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tim,
    Thanks for the link.


    Having read the comments I guess i wasn't to surprised that some railroad purists would object to an electric train. It is also obvious they have no clue as to why the PbC can work where LABs have failed. Some objection to government green money being involved, also. Also confusion about the yard slug and OTR loco.


    Same stuff I read on SA. Guess proof will be in the battery. Lets prove them wrong and let our investment grow.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist,


    People are resistant to change so when a radical idea such as an all electric yard switcher comes along there's going to be a lot of resistance. You usually only get one shot at something like this so I was really surprised to see NS stick with it. So either NS is very committed or going through the motions is enough to keep the EPA at bay. I agree, lets get the batteries in there and let er rip...
    15 Oct 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • And we open down -.0049 on a total of 11,227 shares.


    Appreciate all those likes ... would appreciate you'll buying a few shares even more :-)
    15 Oct 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • I guess not all the EGRO customers are Axionistas ... they're best offer at 5K @ 315 :-(


    Maybe they were off on a nice weekend vacation seeing the fall colors.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Toyota Announces Status of Its Environmental Technology Development, Future Plans


    There is no mention of stop-start but they are
    "Planning to launch 21 new hybrid models between now and the end of 2015, TMC expects global sales of its hybrid vehicles to be at least 1 million units a year from 2013 to 2015."
    15 Oct 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • One of the handouts I received at the ELBC's Dynamic Charge Acceptance Workshop was prepared by CSIRO and reported that Toyota is already producing eight vehicle models with stop-start (including the Prius) and that the feature is standard equipment on four of those eight models.

    15 Oct 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • JP, would those four models be the four Prius models(C, V, Plug-in, and original)?
    17 Oct 2012, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • The link I provided will let you download a scan of the handout, but the list includes the Vitz (optional) 2 models of the Pixis (standard), 2 models of the Corolla (optional) the iQ*6MT (standard) the Ractis Smart Stop Selection (optional) and the Prius (standard).
    17 Oct 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks JP. I do a lot of APC reading at work (don't tell anyone) and the firewall won't let me open anything from your dropbox. Thanks also for listing them in your comment.
    17 Oct 2012, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Peugeot Awarded 'City Car Manufacturer Of The Year' In Greenfleet Awards 2012


    "Phil Robson, Peugeot Fleet and Used vehicle Director, said: “These awards salute our considerable efforts to provide ever enhanced products that respond to the growing demand for environmentally-able vehicles, and Peugeot has probably done more than most – with electric, Stop & Start, diesel-electric HYbrid4 and new small petrol engines. The GreenFleet award is another accolade that serves to show that the 208 is a car of special attributes.”"

    15 Oct 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Anybody heard anything about this "patent-pending advanced anode to enable the next generation of lead-acid batteries"?


    Demand Energy is partnering with C&D Technologies, a global leader in battery technology, currently using its VR Solar(®) VRLA/AGM battery in the Joule.System(TM). Demand Energy is in the process of commercializing a patent-pending advanced anode to enable the next generation of lead-acid batteries. Learn more about C&D Technologies at C&D Press contact: Scott Kleinle at Learn more about Demand Energy at
    15 Oct 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Advanced anode - patent pending - think 10 years. We've been there and done that.
    15 Oct 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla's Cars Look Better Than Its Stock


    "The biggest concern with electric cars is that they might never get you to your destination. ...
    Investors are essentially providing it with publicly traded venture capital. Financially, this higher-risk, early-stage nature can be seen in Tesla's high rate of cash burn and recent stock offering to replenish its coffers.
    Lux Research concludes that despite generous subsidies, electric vehicles may remain uncompetitive with traditional cars, precluding significant adoption even over the next decade.
    At those prices, the car competes with middle, upper and specialty luxury vehicles like the Audi A8, using Ward's Automotive Group's market segmentation.


    These segments averaged annual U.S. sales of about 262,000 in the past five years, according to Ward's. Assuming Tesla's sales are mostly in the U.S., that implies it would need to capture about 8% of that market. That may sound small. But consider that Cadillac, Audi and Acura each have around 9% to 10% of the retail market for 2012 model luxury vehicles, according to consultancy Strategic Vision."
    15 Oct 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • It's about time the mainstream media took a good look at the emperor's fine new clothes and noted the transparency.
    15 Oct 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Coming to a microhybrid near you? Now dat's a lot of hotel load perhaps from the battery at times or perhaps some coming from the braking regeneration to maintain speed as well.


    Ultimate hybrid machine


    "On back roads and expressways, the coasting function comes in handy at speeds up to 100 mph. When the car is rolling on a long downhill with relaxed throttle, the only clue to engine shutdown and disengagement is a glance at the tach, which drops to zero."

    15 Oct 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • A little fuel cell reality.

    15 Oct 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Nitrogen car looks like a great idea.


    I didn't catch how much energy it costs to liquify nitrogen, though.
    15 Oct 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • The more of that article I read, iindelco, the more I liked presence of very large stationary markets for energy storage.
    15 Oct 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Well they did mention that's it's a byproduct of another process looking for uses so that helps.

    15 Oct 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • I think we may be seeing the street sweepers at work. I'm getting a vague sense of deja vu from the early 90s when our principal market consultant for WRT talked about the "street sweepers" being out cleaning up the last few sloppy shares. IIRC the strategy is to let the stock wallow all day to shake loose any shares that may be nervous or sitting on the edge, and then come in at the last hour and buy all the sloppy orders that accumulated during the day. This guy was an old line market pro who's long since retired, but he actually managed the process instead of just observing it. Still, it feels like I've trod this path before to a happy ending.
    15 Oct 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • John: I noticed the strong climb of volume and price starting after 15:00 and was guessing that some folks that are bullish, but were waiting and saw the NSC post by Wtb, waited until EOD to make sure price wasn't going into the crapper!


    My guess is *only* that, but it's what I thought.


    I like yours better because a methodical trader with a longer POV will less skittish.


    OTOH if my take is correct, these folks should be more "strong hands".


    So who knows.


    Anyway, good to see a move up with a nice increase in volume - > 50% above yesterday's volume.


    In a traditional TA scenario, this combined with a late-day surge, close higher than open, at or above prior close, higher low (actually pulling away from and above the the 50-day SMA) would signal the earliest signs that things are nearing a move - likely up.


    I like that.


    15 Oct 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • i too am a fan.
    15 Oct 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • I love it
    15 Oct 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • I vote for a move up...
    15 Oct 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • On the electrical integration side. Wonder what "creeping technologies" are? When you just creep forward and you have some level of electromotive power?


    HELLA Premieres the "Enhanced Start-Stop Demonstrator" Featuring Advanced Hybrid Technology Solutions

    15 Oct 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Case of the Mondays:



    Today's late afternoon Altoona report:


    "Back where it was, yes, but at least it's not buried this time."


    I was told they removed the old batteries and racks 1 or 2 years ago so that's not what they were doing.


    My guess: Perhaps since it's been siting for a while they were checking out some other systems to make sure it's ready to go when the time comes which will hopefully still be soon.


    Wish I understood more about how the racking will change ... maybe they did some prep work for that as well.
    15 Oct 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • I'd sure guess removal of something as measurements would probably not require that the unit be moved.


    Could be they pulled the central processing unit to load the new BMS and verify/modify as required for the new storage system. Different I/O models etc. Perhaps the entire controls cabinet. Test it all out and load it again with the battery strings.


    Having done it for years dat would be my guess.
    15 Oct 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • PS And If you didn't get the messages and we were just getting random sightings we'd have never known that it went in and out of the shop. It's all still good WTB! :)
    15 Oct 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for update WTB and to iindelco for shedding some light on the possible reason for its quick in and out.
    15 Oct 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • "Wish I understood more about how the racking will change"


    Me too. The width and length of the two are very close (.5" longer) but the 30HT is a bit taller (2.5"). Unless the original racks were cramped for space, they may just need to remove a row and increase the vertical clearance. anyway, they have had what seems like an eternity to figure it out...
    15 Oct 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • "My guess: Perhaps since it's been siting for a while they were checking out some other systems to make sure it's ready to go when the time comes which will hopefully still be soon."


    :-) Counter spec. Shopworkers had formed a betting pool on how many APC comments they could generate by moving the NS999 for a few hours/days.
    15 Oct 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • cute D-inv, cute ;-)
    15 Oct 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Does this mean I can give the BCA back to Metro?
    15 Oct 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • No,
    It does not mean that. You earned it. Keep the damn thing, for awhile
    15 Oct 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • 10/15/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 375477, AvTrSz: 9158
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3146
    # Buys, Shares: 22 212040, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3158
    # Sells, Shares: 18 160687, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3130
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 2750, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3100
    Buy:Sell 1.32:1 (56.5% “buys”), DlyShts 70800 (18.9%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.06%


    In summary, we had a late-day surge begin after 15:00 in price and volume after all day of being in the doldrums with very low volume and prices staying in the $0.31-$0.3051 range with a VWAP of $0.3112 on volume of 175,477. From 15:00 on volume doubled and we gained substantially on the VWAP.


    Our daily short sales continue movement towards more normal ranges, suggesting the T+3 thought laid out in my prior instablog have some validity.


    Our close was above the 100-day VWAP of $0.3183. The combination of rising volume, close higher than open, higher low, high same as yesterdays, and continued pushing against the falling resistance (as near as I can tell, ~$0.3195) suggests we may shortly leave consolidation and indications are that a move towards $0.33 is the most likely move.


    Looking at the inflection point calculations on the chart, none are suggesting a down move at this time. Rather, a couple that had small negative divergences developing have flattened out. If we consider the 10-day to be the most accurate predictor, this might be expected. It also had support from the 25-day. Both of these suggested again turning up starting on 8/10.


    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” is omitted.


    15 Oct 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • CORRECTION: "Both of these suggested again turning up starting on 8/10"


    Should be "Both of these suggested again turning up starting on 10/10".


    16 Oct 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • WOW!!!
    A123 Missing Loan Payments, May Seek Bankruptcy Protection



    Another horse that is withdrawn from Derby: AONE (litium Ion)


    Have a good night: Carlos.
    15 Oct 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • That JP fella sure can nail'em!
    15 Oct 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • They filed an 8-K last night disclosing the signing of waivers with both the debenture holders and Wanxaing, so it won't crater just yet.



    I still think it's a good stock to avoid until the dust settles on their stock issuances and the Wanxaing transaction.
    16 Oct 2012, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • I just noticed that Wanxaing Group filed an Amended Schedule 13D yesterday. –


    Amazingly, it reports that A123 had 313,900,610 shares of Common Stock outstanding on October 1st, which is a massive increase from the 147,141,066 shares issued and outstanding at June 30th.


    The really scary part is the 314 million shares EXCLUDES the stock that will eventually be issuable to Wanxaing.
    16 Oct 2012, 04:51 AM Reply Like
    A123 Systems said it has reached an agreement to sell its automotive business assets to Johnson Controls (JCI, Fortune 500) Inc., an auto parts company. In the deal, Johnson Controls will acquire its technology and products, customer contracts, factories in Livonia and Romulus, Michigan, and also a joint venture stake in a Shanghai battery company.
    16 Oct 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Anybody notice that the links to Gerhard Thelen's presentation that mentioned Axion have seemingly been taken down?


    Curious, if the link is just not working for me ... The dead link I noticed was at the bottom of the Green Car Congress article Mr. I linked to.

    15 Oct 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • >Stefan Moroney ... You really need to be a little more specific (a link would be nice) about which presentation. He has made 5 this year to various audiences.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, Not working and can't find it elsewhere.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • I also get a 404 error, Stefan. DR, as I understand Stefan's question it addresses the presentation cited (and linked to) at the conclusion of the Green Car Congress article. That cite/link reads
    "Gerhard A. Thelen (2011) Energy Savings, a Key to Successful Railroading (Presentation at William W. Hay Railroad Engineering Seminar, UIUC)"
    15 Oct 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan--yeah, I noticed this weekend. Also tried to get to it via your post from an earlier Concentrator, and thru some other website after a Google search, but got the same error msg. Don't know what it means, if anything.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • I suspect that the presentation was taken down in response to public buzz over the page we all found so exciting in the first place. I don't know if anyone noticed, but that page shows up as a graphic on Slide 11 of Axion's ELBC presentation. Companies like NS can be very sticky about gratuitous praise for other companies products and it could well be that the Thelen attracted more attention than NS felt comfortable with.
    16 Oct 2012, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • DRich is right, as soon as I wrote, it I went back and added the link ... The link that JP had in his article about it also dead.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, Mr I & iindelco ... This is the document that is referenced at the bottom of the Green Car Congress by Gerhard Thelen delivered 10/21/2011 at the University of Illinios, Railroad Engineering Program



    Is this the one you're looking for?


    The source document link is found here on the University site

    15 Oct 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • That's it. Thanks, DRich.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich---yep, thanks.


    I'm actually not sure what some of the specific slides mean. I'm guessing that the one entitled "Locomtive Emissions Standards - Switcher" is saying that NS' emission requirements change a lot >= 2015, which is (only) 26.5 months away. I don't know if the tougher NOx and PM requirements of 1.3 and .03, respectively, get feathered in or jump to those amounts, and if they apply to the fleet average or if every loco needs to meet them. If they jump, I would think NS needs to start improving before 1/2015 or they'll be out of compliance, if NS is currently less than 1.3 and .03, respectively. Is "GenSet" of 2.9 and 0.15 where NS is now? If it is, then they apparently are even out of compliance with PM already (0.10 currently).


    In other words, an explanation of the math over time would be great (I'm not implying that you know or don't know, just that it would be valuable to know!). If it turned out that NS needs to start improving their emissions now in order to meet the tougher requirements starting 2015 (given the lead times to improve), that might be big positive news to me.
    16 Oct 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • A video clip of the Zero Energy Building in Washington, DC...

    15 Oct 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Cool video. Too bad no glimpse of the battery array.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Is this the same installation?



    There are also Solar Panels and Micro-Wind turbines on the adjacent parking structure that tie into a cutting edge hybrid-gel battery system which can power the building in the event of a power failure.
    15 Oct 2012, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • " Is this the same installation?



    The overall description of the project certainly sounds like the Net Zero Energy project of Axion interest until one gets to "cutting edge hybrid-gel battery system which can power the building in the event of a power failure." If it is the same project the project included two different energy storage systems, the PbC battery can be described as a "hybrid-gel" device, or the PbC system has been replaced with a "hybrid-gel battery system."
    15 Oct 2012, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • I have asked for some shots of the electronics and storage and will let you know if they are willing. To be honest, I would not put too much stock in the "hybrid-gel" thing right now. Remember, we are educated on such things and I don't think the Naval Communications specialist is. We shall see...
    16 Oct 2012, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • That is a cool video. So, who gets to clean the snow and ice off the panels during winter?
    16 Oct 2012, 04:08 AM Reply Like
  • Just in...


    SandEnergy, a SilTek, Inc. Company wrote: "Hi Tim! The author of the article was a bit off in the description of the batteries. They are actually PbC (Lead Carbon). These particular batteries have been developed by Axion out of Pennsylvania."
    16 Oct 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for checking Tim. Trust but verify.
    16 Oct 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Great confirmation Tim. Thanks!


    16 Oct 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Nice!
    16 Oct 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Thanks.


    You have to wonder where some of these writers get their information from. Didn't news services and writers looking t get ahead once have fact checkers? Heck, And once upon a time they had to check facts with the tele and worn shoe leather. Now they can't even bother to open their eyes.


    "New fangled gel batteries"! What orifice did they pull that out of?
    16 Oct 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Would have been nice if they had got it right as we could use all the PR we can lay our hands on.


    The SandEnergy/SilTek folks are pretty excited about their project (as they should be) and I hope to learn more as the data comes in...
    16 Oct 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • You could tell by the video. Very well done with upbeat soundtrack, imo.
    16 Oct 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • I believe "gel-cell" is one popular name for a certain type of AGM.... so maybe that is where the PO got off track...


    Foxnews just ran with the story of AONE BK and abysmal electric car demand... tied it to recovery act funds, former gov of mich, and the admin... they closed with the note that they're still waiting for comment from the WH...
    16 Oct 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Ditto the thanks extended by many others for that follow up info, Tim.
    16 Oct 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • They have every right to tie it Granholm and Obama. One of my best friend's wife is/was on the Livonia City Council and was there when Granholm attended meetings, pushing for and then got tax cuts and credits to them at local, state, and federal levels. She even remembers when Obama pitched his support via Webconference.


    I've tried to get him to buy AXPW and his wife has stuck with their investment in their community and A123. She refuses. Do I send another email today or should I wait a few days?
    16 Oct 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Holty: if the friendship is valued, discretion may be the better part of valour - don't even mention it?


    16 Oct 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • You can rest assured that I won't be writing an article on A123's bankruptcy, just as I didn't write articles on Ener1 or Valence.


    I was a law student at Notre Dame during the Joe Montana era and learned that when you have a strong hand, humility the wiser course. Anything else risks a flag for unsportsmanlike conduct.
    16 Oct 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • I need to clarify my comment. They are both good friends that we see too infrequently as we live in different states.


    My point was not to gloat about them losing money but about the opportunity of AXPW. As a city council member who voted for some of the tax credits she going to get nailed on it when she runs again. I have no desire to rub that in for her and I know why she voted as she did.
    They already know the general AXPW story but I was planning on sending out an email to my friends later this week about an update to AXPW as some friends have bought a little and appreciate the updates. I will probably leave them off but will send an update before the conference call of which I am genuinely optomistic for the first time ever.
    16 Oct 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • I was thinking about that in and back out of the shop for 999. I think they probably wanted to take a look at the thing and size up the work to be done. Makes sense to me.


    I had a burned out headlight in my car today. Fooled around very briefly looking at replacing it myself and decided I would get a local shop to replace both headlights. They came back with a quote of about $165. I got off my ass, looked on the web for a simple "how to", found both headlights at Autozone for about $46 and did the job in 15 minutes or less. And they called Jesse James a robber!


    Anyway, I would guess they were sizing up the job.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah Bang. One of the easiest jobs to do on a car. Once in awhile somethings in the way and it takes a little longer.
    16 Oct 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • Renault takes great pains to discourage all the DIY specialists from changing headlight bulbs on their own. Changed them last winter and it is a good thing none of the neighbors spoke English and were unable to listen to my strings of vocabulary choices.

    16 Oct 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • What are the chances that their mechanics are trained to do it in two minutes and the video is simply part of a clever disinformation campaign?
    16 Oct 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Smart on their part. It would be two very profitable minutes for Renault.


    IIRC the first step was something akin to removing the rear axle and I had boasted to the girlfriend that I could do it in five minutes and she was really needing to use the car. Her first comment was "What, you're still working on that?" and then it just went downhill after that.
    16 Oct 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Changing the bulb usually easy. However trying to get the lens off to clean off moisture on the inside of a Nissan Altima. Damn near takes a day.
    16 Oct 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty, If it's still under warranty take it back in. The light housing is supposed to be sealed. What you have is a failed headlight assembly. You will be forever cleaning it. OK if it's your nickel but not if you can get a new one for free.


    I got two new ones on a vehicle once at about 3 years. The new ones failed after another 6 or 7 years but that's a long time I didn't have to mess with them.
    16 Oct 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Actually got rid of the car last week. We sold mine and got a minivan for the wife as kid #3 is coming. 3 under 3 1/2 all in carseats. What is worse is that kids have to be in the backseat and booster until 8 and 80 lbs. Ugh. I now understand the appeal of the minivan. I'll miss my Altima, 8 years and 159k miles.
    16 Oct 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Congratulations MrHolty!


    I've been through it and we took the same path. I got rid of mine, inherited hers and bought a minivan for her when the kids were 3 and under 1. I always got the older one and she got the next appropriate family vehicle. Easier for me to deal with any less than functional left overs or on the road issues.
    16 Oct 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • That is exactly what we are doing. I had been trying to hold out until the 2013 model year hoping that there would be a car with AXPW inside. We have a deal that I get to buy the first car model with an PbC battery as hopefully the stock will appreciate and pay for the car.
    16 Oct 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mrholty, You're just trying to get in line for a Bimmer or a T Lexus! Come on. You're a family guy now. At least wait until they are teens and then they can appreciate it as well. Dad, can I borrow......


    16 Oct 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like