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  • Axion Power Concentrator 167: Oct. 23, 2012: Mr. Investor Prods Viridity Energy, NS-999 Lives, 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems" 197 comments
    Oct 30, 2012 9:10 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    On 10/18, our own Mr Investor posted the results of a communication with Viridity Energy that was good news confirming that the FERC Order 755 implementation by PJM had occurred and resulted in an update to Viridity's web site. It essentially confirms Tom Granville's statement that pay for performance would see substantial increases, which should make the Power Cube even more attractive to prospective customers. It's worth reading the thread following Mr. Investors comment as some reviews of prior Axion conference calls regarding the percentage increases refresh the information we had in hand.

    Big news 10/16 was wtblanchards comment noting NS-999 had been moved into the shop and a lot of enthusiastic commentary followed. Pascquale got a short secondary thread started with a comment citing the Altoona Works facebook page ... and then we hear it's back out of the shop. It's noted that the number of "likes" on these comments suggest a lot of silent followers inhabit this blog.

    John Petersen's participation as a presenter at the 13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC, has provided additional benefits: he has posted, a brief instablog that identifies slides with information and data he'd not seen before and considers important in Axion's presentation, "Axion PbC Lead-Carbon Hybrid Battery/Supercapacitor ,Operational Stability of PbC Batteries and Battery Systems", to which he has provided a link.

    John did a bang-up job on his presentation, in our opinion, and has graciously permitted us to link to a SlideRocket Version of his presentation. It is highly recommended that you take the time, around 20 minutes, to view this if you've not seen it. It is not focused on Axion, but presents some opportunities and challenges facing the LA battery industry at-large.

    Our very own (claiming him without asking!) Brishwain was able to attend some presentations and talk to some knowledgeable folks, including John Petersen and Enders Dickenson, Director of Research and Development at Axion Power. Brishwain's observations can be found in his comment section, but at this time these are particularly relevant.
    - "... many auto OEMs ... looking at going the two-battery route ..."
    - the Ford rep "... whole presentation essentially showing how pathetic the SS performance was ..." when discussing the current battery use.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Concentrator 154 was headed up by APMarshall's Sep 2012 CEDIA Notes (discussing the Rosewater Residential Hub product), which are worth reviewing if you've not seen them before.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    John Petersen has provided price and volume charts updated through 10/19/2012. A new APC activity chart is also provided.

    (click to enlarge)AXPW Weighted Moving Average Prices 20121019

    (click to enlarge)AXPW Moving Average Volume 20121019

    (click to enlarge)APC Concentrator Comments 20121019

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    Testing Summary Statistics On Stocks. FocalPoint Analytics has begun an instablog that will apply statistical disciplines to metrics of stock activity to produce summary indications of likely actions going forward. Well worth a visit.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (197)
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  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    First, from Sri Lanka?
    23 Oct 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Jon
    23 Oct 2012, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    APH followers seems stuck at 167.
    23 Oct 2012, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Maybe they've been waiting for the number of concentrators to catch up with their quantity ... to prove popularity?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I was very encouraged by the Viridity "demand response" presentation for Data Centers posted on the last concentrator.

     

    The number of Data Centers are staggering. I have posted this before but the latest estimate is 500,000 worldwide.
    http://bit.ly/VVxiQe

     

    The fact that most use LAB is very encouraging. If the economics of the PowerCube work out, these centers can actually pay-off their storage cost while providing the steady back-up power they need. While at the same time they can provide power generation to the utilities that the utilities need.

     

    A win for the Grid, Data Centers, and Axion.

     

    Each data center waste 2.5 hours a year to downtime at a cost of $300,000 per hour. A Million dollar PowerCube can help with that. The PowerCube can generate income each and every day. That can significantly reduce the cost of the PowerCube. How is this not a no brainer? Perhaps if Axion could publish the results of its own PowerCube operation we would know.

     

    What I like the most about this is that a small percentage of the data center business is still big business for Axion. And it is only one niche area of the micro-grid / storage / frequency regulation market.
    23 Oct 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    For those who missed this
    Scroll to page 17 to see the demand response portion of the presentation:

     

    http://bit.ly/XN5oUZ
    23 Oct 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2096) | Send Message
     
    From that presentation it appears that money can be saved by load shifting the energy demand of a data center by "precooling" in the early off peak hours. How is that accomplished? By making ice?

     

    It also seems that money can be earned this way by "peak shaving" to create "negawatts" and get paid for them. How do they measure energy not used in a meaningful way that justifies payment?
    23 Oct 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I believe load shifting goes like this:
    I need 1 M of energy between noon and 2:00 each and every day. I will buy my own storage and guarantee you that I will only use 80% of my needs each day.
    The energy company pays the business as if the business generates 20% of the needs. Same as the energy company would pay for oil,ect.
    The difference is that the energy company has no initial investment to generate the power.
    23 Oct 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: "... precooling" in the early off peak hours. How is that accomplished?"

     

    When I saw that I immediately thought of taking the inside temp down a few extra degrees when the electricity is cheapest and thus allowing start of cooling load later in the day when electricity is more expensive. A form of "load shifting" or "time shifting" sort of.

     

    Moreover, with sufficient battery capacity, some of that deferred cooling load might be handled by the BSS (battery storage system), limiting draw-down to some minimum SOC, with re-charging and continued cooling at, again, lower rates.

     

    Ready for the next day's cycle.

     

    I don't know, but it's what I envisioned.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    Will this kind if strategy turn into what happened with carbon credits? Instead of reducing my own demand, I'll pay someone else to reduce theirs. Power is more local, of course.

     

    In the mean time, I'll build a fully climate controlled roofless mall. If anyone wants to pay me to not heat and cool the air, I'll take the money.
    23 Oct 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    SMartin: Yes. Ice could be made...as in what Viridity Energy and Drexel University are doing. Thermal energy shifting in such a way that it's the books in the library that are cooled at night from ice, and then the books help cool the building by day.

     

    Short PDF describing:

     

    http://bit.ly/SneDbo

     

    Further, at Jefferson Hospital in Philly, they also use the basement of an adjacent building to make ice at night and then pump air across the ice and then throughout the hospital by day.

     

    I couldn't find an article about this, but learned via my broker, who sits in the Jeff Hosp. BODs.

     

    So most certainly, some data centers could be doing the same.
    23 Oct 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    " make ice at night and then pump air across the ice and then throughout the hospital by day."

     

    I've seen reports of similar approaches in other industries. For data centers, though, I wonder if such a direct approach might create another problem by elevating humidity?
    23 Oct 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: or alleviate another by reducing static discharge potential.

     

    As the cooled air crosses warmer components, the relative humidity drops (because the air is warmed), reducing the chance of condensation there, and likely on nearby components nearby as well.

     

    Also, I suspect that the amount of water picked as the water goes through a phase change would be small since it will still be very cold water - not "boiling off" in any significant quantity.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2162) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, typically you do not blow air over the ice - it is too humid. You have antifreeze in pipes that run through the ice. The chilled antifreeze solution then cools the the air in the ducts.
    23 Oct 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rick. Next time I speak with my broker, I'll ask him if chilled antifreeze is used at Jefferson Hospital.
    23 Oct 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2096) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    It makes sense that a metal radiator filled with antifreeze would provide much greater surface area for heat exchange than just blowing air across raw ice.

     

    Less ice needed, packed into a smaller total space, smaller freezer system to freeze it, more efficient energy transfer.

     

    It also obviously is less messy, in that the water/ice would be in a closed container filled with pipes connected to the radiator, and evaporative losses or condensation minimized as problems.
    23 Oct 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2651) | Send Message
     
    Fut, et.al. - Have you heard any noise about the utilization of renewable/storage for use in Quincy, WA where MSFT, YAHOO and 2 or 3 others have DATA Centers (already on cheap hydro power of say 1-2 cents/kwh), but could make use of both nearby wind power (Vantage) and also fill the south facing hills a few mile north of Quincy with Solar PV, using even REC's solar feedstock/product made with that same cheap power at Moses Lake, WA; all Grant County PUD power best I know.

     

    This would be a great (big) experiment. MSFT could even fund it, instead of the US Gov.
    24 Oct 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Naked,
    Not heard a word. But I am sure anything like that needing storage in Wisc. might look at ZBB for the hometown press it would accomplish.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    I worked at a facility that chilled water at night for use during the day. They said it saved $1million/year in energy cost. That was in 1989.

     

    From the link: "Typically, data centers add about two hours worth of chilled water from thermal storage". From a pure reliability and cost aspect, if the cooling can just be pumped in, then much less power storage and generation is needed during a power outage.

     

    http://bit.ly/SfMAMN
    23 Oct 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    A few weeks ago I discussed this issue with a friend who is an electrician who does the electrical work for data centers. He was skeptical about whether the managers of data centers would be interested in revenue generating opportunities. His thought was that the key metric for these people is avoiding downtime. Yes, they worry about costs, but that is a secondary metric. Also, they are a cost center and don't think in terms of revenue.

     

    So, his thought was that these folks would reject any opportunity for generating revenue if it entailed any risk whatsoever to their reliability metric.

     

    To me, that means they will want to maintain their backup batteries at all times at full charge just in case. Now, if they can do something to reduce their peak usage and save money that way, then yes. In summary, I think this will eventually happen, it'll just take some time for mindsets to change. Sigh.

     

    Fortunately, most of Axion's other prospects are very forward thinking and eager to implement new ideas ;)
    23 Oct 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    AP,
    I just can't get over the fact that using 20% of a PowerCube will pay for the 80% a data center needs. Won't know if it is a good idea until the financial metrics from the Axion PowerCube are released.
    23 Oct 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    While I agree with you in general, all we need would be one guy at GOOG or AMZN and we're off. Remember Goog decided to build their own servers due to size and scale just to save a few $. Getting the pitch to the right engineer is all we need at a $30M market cap.
    23 Oct 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2162) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, how do you figure that "using 20% of a PowerCube will pay for the 80% a data center needs"? Data centers typically have rather smooth electric needs. They want batteries until the generators kick in, plus a reserve if they have to go to backup-backup plan B.
    23 Oct 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    I am making that statement without numerical back-up from the Axion PowerCube. So please bear with the math until proven right or wrong.

     

    Since the PbC works well in a small range I am suggesting that a company buy 20% more storage than they need. They operate behind the meter with that upper 20% and that , over time, defrays the cost of the whole. Admittedly data centers don't use power storage in a way that maximizes the Cubes potential. But if free power storage is the end result I see them as a large market.

     

    I really want to see the math from AXION.
    23 Oct 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2162) | Send Message
     
    Icebear is a commercial ice storage system for a/c. See http://bit.ly/Tdqyef
    23 Oct 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    My general market forecast:

     

    http://bit.ly/SdXGkb
    23 Oct 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Norfolk Southern tops all railroads in 2012 Newsweek Green Rankings

     

    http://yhoo.it/XPtmz4

     

    Earnings NSC after the close.
    23 Oct 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    "It has committed to using new technology to improve energy efficiency, including by expanding use of LEADER, an onboard GPS-based computer system, across all its operations by 2014."

     

    With Axion powered OTR units prominently featured??? :-)
    23 Oct 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Maybe Axion needs to plan ahead?

     

    http://bit.ly/TQSfX1
    23 Oct 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    For our bretheren and sisteren :-)) that are under water (most of us) ...

     

    http://bit.ly/TQT1mX

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. That was good for a much needed laugh.
    23 Oct 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Interesting to watch the ask "stepped down" over 8 seconds, with no trades, in 1/100th penny increments until we "bottom" the ask at $0.29.

     

    The 4.5 minutes later we get some buys, 20K @ $0.29 over four seconds.

     

    Almost like someone was on the phone negotiating a deal.

     

    Anyway, through 12:55, this puts us in this configuration.

     

    # Trds: 19, MinTrSz: 700, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 109053, AvTrSz: 5740
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2994, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2906
    # Buys, Shares: 11 59453, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2918
    # Sells, Shares: 8 49600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2891
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.20:1 (54.5% "buys" - strongly improved from earlier with a 1:4.xx ratio).

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4417) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... After nearly 3 weeks of waiting my little AON went off at around 1:00 PM EDT. I'd put it in just to see if this were actual selling or just "raise cash" panic to a bad day in Mudville. Seems we have someone with a sizable holding backing away.
    23 Oct 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I've been wondering about Special Situations for quite some time. Then we had the little discussion on the board about Blackrock after the CC and some thought they might be disenchanted.

     

    Having said that ...

     

    What I think we're seeing now looks a lot more benign than what we went through getting Quercus apparently finished and the last (my opinion) of the "flippers" from the Feb issuance.

     

    I'm really reading this for a bit now as more of a "normal" trading, except for the big dump on that 944K day 9/17.

     

    One thing that makes me thing this is that most days, most of the time, ATDF seems to lead the ask down and when they get "quiet", we seem to have some price "strength" return.

     

    It's just drips and drabs right now, but I suspect this is how things start to turn around from the immense pressure we were under for so long. Folks out there that are less involved than we are in AXPW would be pretty cautious I think.

     

    They'll miss some upside, and some downside too probably, but when it's apparent to all that we won't have millions flooding the market, I think they'll be confident to jump in.

     

    That might require that we hear what the details of the next financing are, or a nice sale.

     

    Anyhoooo ... I remain steadfast and still have my trading blocks. They aren't going anywhere until we start moving up solidly.

     

    My current concern: do we see a repeat of what I though included tax-loss selling this year? We're approaching that time when those so inclined might be giving serious consideration to that. And if it includes such as Special Situations and Blackrock, it wouldn't be pretty, I guess.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    Would this pullback also not be related to the market overall pullback? Was the market also down in 9/17?

     

    I have to confess I was at one point forced to sell some AXPW shares, because of a margin call. It was 34c then, months ago. I thought I had been forced to sell at the low for sure.

     

    Margin calls would explain why large retail blocks might have been dumped indiscriminately in the last couple weeks.
    23 Oct 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I could be mistaken but I thought margin was only allowed on stocks valued over several $. I realize that a call on one stock could cause an investor to have to sell others to cover.
    23 Oct 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    DRich: looks like you called it right for today: just had 4 trades totalling 100K go off at VWAP of $0.2809.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: the good news is that pesky ATDF offer is gone and higher asks are at the top now. OOPS, it came back, but higher than before, $0.2999, behind Citadel at $0.2975.
    23 Oct 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    And now ATDF and CDEL start jostling at the sell, trying to get ahead of each other LoL!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4417) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Special Sits acts like a swing trader. I would imagine they are cutback to a "HOLD" by now awaiting a new year buy/sell. Blackrock is a "HOLD" and they are not gone. The trading, to me, is like there are several boutique shops that are new and skittish (like one in particular I know of) holding little est. 500k positions wanting to do what SS is (has been) doing.

     

    Your current concern about tax-loss selling just doesn't look like it is going to be a problem anywhere in the market this year. EOY Distribution selling is just not showing me that unless we get one hellava Santa Claus rally and ever then it would be benign. I know that those that believe in politics think taxes this year are a big deal because they are going up next year no matter what but I don't think the market really cares (except for those unfortunate few) this year.
    23 Oct 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    HTL, That sure looked like some computer messing around with the bid in the last few minutes. It looked like a super ball burning off the last few seconds of its kinetic energy on a cobble stone road. All over the place and fast.
    23 Oct 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: It might not be related to a single stock. E.g. if you are a "pattern day trader", FINRA(?) rules require a $25K balance be maintained. At least that's what it was a couple years ago.

     

    As you know already, short sales and/or longs bought on margin can cause a call as well if the market moves against you far enough.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I've been wondering the last week or so if what we see in ATDF action might be more computer-driven. Just the constant of them always trying to jump ahead on both sides made me start wondering. I don't believe a random sample of human folks over a long period and with differing price points would produce such a *consistent* behavior.

     

    Almost as if someone is playing an arbitrage opportunity.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    All I can say is that the price was jumping around so quickly that it's hard to imagine it occurring with human entry. But it was also in little 0.0001 type increments. Like a computer testing for other computers or farming for interest but not wanting to sell.
    23 Oct 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, it was my marginable stocks that caused the call. Blue chips my ***.
    23 Oct 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Ranma

     

    "Blue chips my ***. "

     

    You aren't the first person to ask about the safety of megacap stocks.
    I just keep thinking of all those people that owned the largest company in the world ( old GM) and watched it bury itself into bankruptcy.
    24 Oct 2012, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Software glitch could strand Chevy Volt.

     

    http://fxn.ws/TdGU6A
    23 Oct 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm...I think that if my car just decides to shut down, while I'm driving it on the road, I would consider that a "safety Issue". The NHTSA has not yet commented...and probably won't until after the Nov elections.

     

    "Several owners have experienced the problem in the real world, but the automaker says steering and braking are not affected when it occurs, which apparently allowed all of them to safely bring their cars to a stop. Turning off the car and waiting 2-5 minutes before restarting it temporarily solves the problem, but owners are being asked to bring their cars to a Chevy dealer for a re-flash of the control system software.
    According to Chevy, there have been no accidents or injuries and it is not being treated as a safety issue at this time. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration has not yet commented on the issue."
    23 Oct 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Labtech. I've seen other recalls for ICE vehicles stalling out. This is clearly a recall situation as it involves an unsafe situation.
    23 Oct 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Someone asked me about timing on the typical "one year" of time a new VP of Sales gets when taking over sales and marketing at a new employer - in this case Vani at Axion. The question noted that Vani was coming up on a year. He was hired in latter part of Jan IIRC and so I think the critical timing for him is by the end of Q1 2013. He also has to be creating a growing, active pipeline of business as a result of his own efforts and not just people who called Axion on their own.

     

    He is also going to be evaluated on how he is interacting with existing major accounts like BMW and NS. In a nutshell, do they like him and have they made him their primary point of contact for non-technical issues - or are they avoiding him and only dealing with previously established management contacts?

     

    Lastly, I think he has a little bit of a timing issue with Q4 2012. If a deal isn't in the closing stages along with a customer desire to get it done before Thanksgiving (with US customers) then it tends to go in limbo until well after the first of the year. There are exceptions of course, but it usually has to be a "done deal" in all but paper details and signing by then or it usually goes on ice for quite a while.

     

    With a growing pipeline and positive feedback from important prospects I think he is good to go until the end of Q2 2013. Without a personal sales success by the end of Q2 2013 I think he needs to have his bags packed and his resume out on the street in a hurry.
    23 Oct 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your perspective Bang. Twas me that made the request.
    23 Oct 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    From all I've heard Axion seems to be very happy with Vani. I think the sales cycle here may be long enough that June 2013 would be a hasty deadline. To bring in "new" signed and delivered business by then or have your resume ready seems harsh. However I agree that prospect calls needs to go through him and not around him.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2162) | Send Message
     
    Bang, while we agree we would like to see more sales for Axion, I don't agree with your timing issues. We, or at least I, do not know what has been happening behind the curtain, and what are issues with specific customers. We are a mouse trying to herd elephants.

     

    Utilities are not agile, and FERC regulations have taken a long time to be issued. Auto companies have tremendously long supply chain qualifications. UL has not facilitated entry to residential. Sales cycles can take years.

     

    I have no idea if Vani has been superlatively great or wretched. I doubt we as shareholders will know much more by 2Q13. We have to trust management to make that decision.
    24 Oct 2012, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    RK> "I have no idea if Vani has been superlatively great or wretched. I doubt we as shareholders will know much more by 2Q13. We have to trust management to make that decision."

     

    You can be the worst sales VP on the planet, but if the CEO loves you then you are golden. Regardless of market conditions I think Vani needs to at least land a minnow by the end of Q2 2013. Vani was hired to speed the commercialization of the PbC. He is either doing that or he isn't. The only indicator we have to know anything is sales announcements.
    24 Oct 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    10/23/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 71100, Vol 308459, AvTrSz: 7523
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2994, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2866
    # Buys, Shares: 24 128059, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2906
    # Sells, Shares: 17 180400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2838
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.41 (41.52% “buys”), DlyShts 35253 (41.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.54%

     

    Today started off pretty much normal, after 15 minutes of no trades, with some early low-volume price weakness in the subsequent 4 trades over 20 minutes that totaled 18.6K shares with a VWAP of $0.2848. Then trading went at $0.29 or higher, after another 52 minutes of no trades, through 14:00 on 19 trades totaling 112,153 shares at a VWAP of $0.2914.

     

    Then, after 47 minutes of no trades, the bottom fell out as 4 trades totaling 100K went off at VWAP of $0.2809 in 57 seconds. We did recover a little bit, but on little volume and the improvement could not be maintained as the usual suspects began jostling at the sell window. We managed to trade another ~77.7K at a VWAP of $0.2873.

     

    Frankly, I was surprised that the buy:sell didn't end up worse than it did. DRich mentioned in a comment he thought someone with a larger position was trying to back away, and he sure looks right today. Just a few minutes after he mentioned that, those 100K shares went off.

     

    There is a possible brighter side though. Price stayed far away from $0.25xx. We made a candlestick called a “spinning top”, which suggests a change in trend may appear. Since we have been in a very short-term down trend, this suggests a move up might be at hand. This is not negated by volume (notice I didn't say “is supported by ...”). The volume is essentially flat from yesterday, 314K vs. Today's 308K. We may be just seeing the effects of the price trying to move through that short term line I started, now 10 days old, that was short-term supportive and is now resistance.

     

    I think if tomorrow price doesn't move off that experimental lower Bollinger I mentioned yesterday, we might see further weakness. None of the other TA oscillators I watch are suggesting anything definitive: some slightly bullish, some showing weakness and some just plain don't care yet.

     

    On my experimental stuff, I note again that we had a large drop in the daily short sales accompanying a weakness in price. We moved from 43.6% yesterday to 11.4% today and VWAP moved from $0.2919 to $0.2866 today. My thought is that we saw incoming shares with a low-cost basis to market-makers sold into the market that helped add to downward pressure. This is suggested because on a day with essentially the same volume as yesterday and a similar price range (VWAPS of $0.2919 and $0.2866) the shorts were so much lower (~137K vs. ~35K).

     

    Our average trades size has recovered to normal from its extremely low point of 3734 on 10/19. This leads me into ...

     

    On 10/19 I included “... last time we had this combination of a short-sales spike followed by high and then reducing volume and short-sales bottoming and then trending higher (check my charts for the 6/4-6/25 period) with trade size falling way below the long-term trend in a day, we had a nice little bump up ...”. I mention it only to say let's keep an eye out to see if over the next few days the patterns emulate that 6/4-6/25 period. If the pattern doesn't get broken, we might challenge the mid-$0.30xx range again over the next week or two. I hope we develop a bit faster this time since we think our really large sellers are out of the game now and we expected a behavioral change subsequent to their supposed exit.

     

    I just want to mention the new inflection point calculations long enough to say that the 100K sell quashed the coordinated up moves that were just beginning. Prior to the 100K sell, the 10-day had crossed above zero and made +3.11, IIRC, and after it was down below zero again at (94.xx) IIRC.

     

    As I mentioned, they looked “discordant” to me and I wasn't ready to suggest anything other than careful observation. I'm still in that camp at this time.

     

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" is omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4417) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... I don't use but one technical indicator so I can't add or detract from your take. I'll just throw it out there that the MACD histogram shows me that in 5 trading days an uptrend should show itself. Between now & then virtually nothing should happen. I hope there has been enough to redistribution of shares to remove the 3 penny cap effect. That's my take because of how long it took for my trade to execute and my lower trade has been breached with no execution.
    23 Oct 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I hope you're right. "Emulating" that MACD by looking at the 10, 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs, a move up is also suggested as being near. Harkening back to that Zeccho(?) trading video, the full stochastic has crossed %K above %D so it *must* be assured, right? ;-))

     

    BTW, Bang recently posted he thought the MACD was suggesting a stumble. In conflict or just a change from when he posted?

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4417) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Bangwhiz is correct that the MACD is pointing down. Not good. If you use the histogram for trending, it is in a declining wedge that should cross in 4 trading days and be above the Zero line. That leads me to believe a change in trend is coming and I don't believe there is much, if any, downside left with just market pressure. That is not to say the trend wouldn't or couldn't be a new leg down but, really, there can't be any profit in that and panic cash raises should already be completed.
    24 Oct 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    DRich: that's what I suspected - a change in the wedg(ie) profile! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Was working today in South West Florida. A snowbird arrived from New Castle , Penn. I conversed about Axion Power, Int. This successful businessman had never heard of them, except his buddy had bought one of their batteries from the factory. (LAB)
    I informed him that he might want to consider New Castle as the epicenter of the next battery revolution. He had no idea.

     

    BTW. That is the same reaction I found on my journey to New Castle for the annual meeting. The locals have no idea. It would be nice if everybody in New Castle was behind the company, but at this point in time the concept is to abstract. New Castle is far from being a "company town". Thank God.
    23 Oct 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    Not sure why I notice stuff like this, but yesterday, I posted a brochure from Viridity that had an apparent graph of frequency regulation behind a cube looking enclosure.

     

    For some reason it struck me as familiar, so I cross-referenced it with a prior Viridity presentation re: slide 26 of the second presentation from China below. If you blow up both, you will notice that that they are the exact same graphs with the same date and time listed on them. Not really sure of the direct relevance, except to note that they are using the Axion freq/reg graph on the cover of their brochure that was just published yesterday.

     

    http://bit.ly/TcfrCw

     

    http://bit.ly/NZsTo1
    24 Oct 2012, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Did something resonate with you when you saw that harmonic frequency?

     

    Anyway, Good eyes. Don't let military intelligence know.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:25 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    For those interested, this appears to be a legal primer/presentation on ISOs/RTOs/FERC Market Structure & legal developments over the last 15 years. I haven't dug into it yet, but it looks like it will be long and interesting.

     

    http://bit.ly/RUoSTT
    24 Oct 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Stephan,

     

    Thanks for the link to that presentation. Indeed it is long and cumbersome. It does give one an opportunity to see the benefit and the problems with Demand Response payments and the "Behind the meter" issues the industry is debating.

     

    The one thing I did not realize that the following rule is now law "

     

    A reduction in energy load of 1 MW = 1MW of power generation

     

    Since they are equal then, according to the rule, the price paid for the Negawatt has to be equal to the price paid for the Megawatt.

     

    It will be fascinating to see how the major users of energy and the suppliers of energy figure out how to make this all work. It will also be interesting to see how the PowerCube helps companies take advantage of these negawatt rules.
    24 Oct 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    Texas wholesales rate cap was changed from $3000/MWh to $4500 this summer, and will increase to $9000 by 2015. For a comparison, U.S. Geothermal, HTM has a long term power agreement for $89.75/mwh for California. Those max rates only kick in a few times a year, and are weather dependent, of course. Short term weather and loads are predictable.

     

    It's not hard to see the opportunity here, folks.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    Thanks for the links. The last link has the pages sideways (after the first 2 pages) on the monitor and I'm not sophistcated enough to know how to fix it and too old to risk a stiff neck. Please fill us in on any juicy tidbits or I would appreciate any suggestions on how to make it readable on my monitor.
    24 Oct 2012, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed,

     

    Simply right click on the page that is sideways and then click the words "rotate clockwise".

     

    It took me a few minutes to discover this trick.
    24 Oct 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    Thanks for the tip.
    24 Oct 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    OT: I see that Citigroup downgraded (NSC) to neutral from buy. medium-term, this might present a buy opportunity if you believe that implementation over then next couple of years of battery locos will yield huge savings in fuel costs that will far offset reduced coal shipments top-line effects on bottom-line results.

     

    Just thinking out loud here.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    Earning release "short form:"

     

    http://bit.ly/TG4Lbi

     

    Not pretty. Not unexpected.

     

    Note: "lower revenues from fuel surcharges."
    24 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    NSC is down 6.25% on the day as I type. Reported a 27% drop from year earlier profit.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    They hit the high end of earlier downward revised expectations and companies like C downgrade them. I guess to be a good investment you have to have high character like the US large banking industry (on average).

     

    Why does anyone assign much credibility at all to the old guard? :(
    24 Oct 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    AP news on NSC Q3 report included,

     

    "The railroad has furloughed 234 employees and put another 200 on light duty as part of its effort to cut costs. It has also stored 200 locomotives it owns and returned 160 less-efficient leased locomotives. "
    24 Oct 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4417) | Send Message
     
    >All ... I'm glad to see y'all taking an interest in the rails lately. If anyone is interested, Norfolk Southern will be a buy below $60 but my price target right now is about $57.50. Oil loads out of the tar sands will grow because rails are faster than pipelines since it take about 8 days for a barrel to get to a refinery in pipe. Coal loads might never recover to previous but will grow again starting in the late winter with Natgas prices rising. I'm figuring Natgas to about $5.00 over the winter. Remember we're about 2 years or less from Natgas going to world market prices (a little less, actually) of around $8.00.
    24 Oct 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    (NSC): On a five-year weekly chart, with current market sentiment in mind, I can see a reversion to the mean to about $50 as no problem. If it breaks $57, I would expect at least $50. It'll likely break the rising 200-day SMA, ~$59, and that's considered a bearish sign.

     

    Lot's of potential congestion price points though - pauses could be expected with some attempts at reversal.

     

    With a $2 dividend, if it gets down there it gets attractive, maybe, and if it does a full re-trace to around $26 it gets mouth-watering.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4417) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... It is a different road than it was when it was $26. If it made it back that far it would be because of external economics which in that case I'd more likely look at Union Pacific & Kansas City Southern for one best of breed and one for growth (I miss my favorite rail ATSF). The lowest I see Norfolk Southern possibly going in anything like "normal" markets would be $39-40.
    24 Oct 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I do think the $26 would be only a result of slowing GDP growth continuing for an extended period - not entirely unrealistic, but likely an outlier.

     

    If the market continues to act as in the last couple of years, the $50 ought to find some support and then only the external events would likely be the things that move it lower I think.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    Venerability posted this last night. Maybe the old gaurd isn't trusted anymore. http://bit.ly/RUuiyc
    24 Oct 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Thanks SD, I saw an article some time ago that the Russians and the Chinese were interested. The US agencies joining makes sense. They are losing total control and it's better to be involved now than to be excluded. Plus it's better for them to be less beholden to the US banks who have their own set of issues. In the end it probably comes down to the view on the USD and the Feds credibility.
    24 Oct 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    I was reminded this morning how much different Axion is than other micro-cap companies. I received a once a year stock pick for a penny stock this morning. The fine print at the bottom reveals the fact that the company paid 1.1 million dollars to a PR company. That company in turn hired the person who sent me the e-mail. Both the PR company and the person who sent me the e-mail will be buying and selling the shares of the company. The company is basically hiring a firm to use gullible investors to cause drastic price increases. In the process a few will make money, but most will lose.
    On the other hand, Axion uses its money to develop the product and develop market possibilities. We now have partner companies who will not only use the product but will act as an active sales force. A link Stefan listed above shows Viridity's advertisement with Axion listed by name. Rosewater is actively promoting the HUB. BMW is in partnership with other car manufacturers and sharing the info. NSC is showing activity with NS999 being moved in and out of the shop. As lithium companies are biting the dust as JP predicted, companies and investors are beginning to look for better alternatives.
    It would be fun to make money off a momentum trade developed by the hype of a PR company. But I would rather own part of a company that made its money by providing a revolutionary product that changed the market place. A legitimate business is one that offers the opportunity for everyone to win, not just a few who make money at the loss of other investors.
    24 Oct 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: Excellent comment. You describe, essentially, the difference between a wealth creation process and a wealth transfer process.

     

    My longer-term hope for Axion is not just to sell out at a huge profit, if I'm fortunate enough to identify "greater fool" opportunities, but to see Axion grow to the point of paying dividends from it's wealth-creation activities.

     

    Some portion of my position should be sold, of course, as part of diversification and risk-management processes, but I would love to be there when dividends are forthcoming.

     

    I would take some pride in being part owner of a company that provides benefit to society (and the world?) while creating wealth which benefits many, many people.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4417) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Ever the optimist ... eh? I think dividends will be for the next generation to realize.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    DRich: yeah, probably. But leaving that to my descendants wouldn't be a bad thing.

     

    If our ship of state doesn't right itself, might be badly needed.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, thanks for pointing out Axion's qualities in that context. Made my morning a little brighter and in the NE sunshine is hard to come by this time of year around the Great Lakes.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Looking at Altoona Works homepage:
    http://bit.ly/rpBy4d
    Don't know if it was listed before, but on left side of page under "Current Programs", is listed "NS 999 Battery Upgrade". when clicking on this link are redirected to NS 999 page
    http://bit.ly/INYJCZ
    which states near top *** Presently undergoing modifications to operate with lead-carbon batteries from Axion ***

     

    Per previous, don't remember if the NS 999 was listed on the Current Programs before, or if this is new.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Great find Metro! I like the second link because it gives some details of the work and a list of news articles in a timeline.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    jveal,
    Props to wtblanchard who linked this site originally.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    metro, Since I'm still holding the damp rag, the answer is that it's been this way for awhile.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    thanks, just wanted confirmation that it had been. No damp rag affect here. Just didn't recall seeing it listed under current programs. Information overload.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    I did some of the research to gather some of those links. Sometimes those that receive need to give :-)

     

    Given some of the flavor we saw on the Facebook page related to the very idea of NS-999, I'm very pleased that those that own the page are willing to present things evenly and fairly. Not wildly over the top in either direction, which is good in my book.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    "Information overload."

     

    I hear ya metro. We're like a pack of dogs digging around finding bone fragments and trying to piece together a skeleton so we can identify what type of animal we're holding. The markets waiting for one big bone and many of us think the shape of the smaller fragments already indicate it's coming.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    "The markets waiting for one big bone and many of us think the shape of the smaller fragments already indicate it's coming. "

     

    :-) Bone? "Whar's the beef!"
    24 Oct 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Great link.

     

    I stumble on this in the patent application:

     

    4. The locomotive according to claim 1, wherein at least a portion of the batteries in the battery assembly are removably installed on the locomotive platform, and wherein the locomotive is re-fueled by swapping at least some of the removably installed batteries with fresh batteries.

     

    That a nice idea (same thing that Better Place and Kandi does already). But I do not know if it is relevant in any rail scenarios.
    24 Oct 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Switcher vs. hybrid locomotive.

     

    The impression I got from reading the concentrator is that the work on the NS 999 was only begun after receiving the Federal Railroad Administration Research and Development Grant. My take on this after reading

     

    http://bit.ly/S6EdoV

     

    is that the grant is for the hybrid locomotive and not the switcher: meaning that work started on the NS 999 independently and coincidentally just after the grant. If that is true, then we could expect another sale of batteries to NS soon. Am I confused on this?
    24 Oct 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    metro, My read is that the funding was to support the whole enchilada. So there will be additional string testing with Axion and perhaps other battery types to develop an OTR app. with a BMS.
    24 Oct 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the market is waiting for Axion to get it's next round of business or to define what the corporate structure is going to look like. Perhaps saying that they are looking for strategic partners has put us on hold? Markets sometimes wait for definition.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    Investors hate uncertainty. We have that in spades. Works against us in that small steps (like movement of the NS-999) don't matter to the stock price because there's always a "yeah, but."

     

    Not complaining, just observing. We have many opportunities, which is good, but which surprisingly, can be used as a negative (or at the least a "damper!") You know .... "wet/damp blanket/rag" stuff :-)
    24 Oct 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    If I were sitting on the sidelines with a strong interest in Axion, but a patient, prudent style of investor (polar opposite of me), I would be waiting for Axion to put the capital issue behind it, particularly with Axion's history of down round capital raises.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    WTB and Bang, Agree with your perspectives.

     

    Then there's just that tantalizing aspect of knowing the size of the fish swimming around the Axion bait. And we've already got one nibbling hard and another that's been around for so long you just know he can already taste it!

     

    You place your bets. you take your chances.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Bang: but what you do then, being the patient type, after hearing that plans are to use a "strategically aligned" investor?

     

    ISTM that changes the perception game from what it was to something that offers the potential of a more positive outcome.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    i am bleeding pretty heavily, maybe just throw me in as chum.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    Those (not currently invested) of the Jim Cramer school would invest some, but certainly not all now.

     

    Being in keeps you paying attention.

     

    Doesn't presume you're a genius who can tell which way (and when) this thing breaks. There's risk being in, and risk not being in!

     

    Cramer also likes speculation ... just in moderation and appropriate to your situation.

     

    And yeah, I know Cramer's not perfect. He's just another data point, and with tons of information you choose what to do with. Like our stock, not all good, not all bad ... somewhere in the vast between.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu, Don't need chum, That's to lure the fish in. We already have that. We just need a hard bite.

     

    Cover those wounds. My bet says they will heal well and be good talking points over an expensive AXPW paid for cold one some day. Not supported by today's stock price for sure!! Heavy sigh. ;)
    24 Oct 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    OTOH: ATDF came on the ask in quantity at 10:26 and hasn't jumped in front of anybody since then, Holding steady ATM at ask of $0.30 with NITE and UBSS. Bid/ask 5Kx$0.289/$0.30x35K. With this imbalance, ATDF would normally be shoving to get up front at lower price.

     

    I conclude they are either sick or away.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    I should've kept quiet: 4 minutes after my comment, ATDF goes to $0.2897 on the ask and they get some trades.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    HTL> "Bang: but what you do then, being the patient type, after hearing that plans are to use a "strategically aligned" investor?"

     

    See if it comes true and look at the whole package - who did Axion get in bed with? What does the new capital structure look like? If it is that great a deal there will be plenty of time to make money. God I wish I was as smart as my imaginary investor!
    24 Oct 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    "God I wish I was as smart as my imaginary investor!"

     

    You got company there my man!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    My imaginary investor always gets to peek in the rear view mirror.
    24 Oct 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I know we’ve discussed this in bits and pieces but I have been thinking about this for a while and it helps when I get my thoughts on paper. We are all in agreement that another round of financing will need to occur and I think most of us expect it to happen late Q4 or early Q1. Irregardless of when it happens I am wondering more about the order of how it will happen.

     

    We could be looking at going to the market for equity issuance like previous times, in theory with HY bonds being extremely low right now that market may be open for AXPW where it might have been closed before, and then strategic financing via equity or even debt.

     

    Even as we write this I struggle with how we get from today to the future. Lets assume that in the short run (12-18 months) battery purchases from NS and for Rosewater and any other market can be filled via current production or with a small capital adds via more lines in the New Castle location. Assuming BMW moves to fleet testing how does the timing and fulfillment work? Does TG have jump before getting an order? Said another way does TG have to get the financing and maybe even production/agreement signed with a Tier 1 supplier lined up to satisfy BMW financial people that they can get to scale before he has an offer in hand. I mean if TG actually has some form of commitment from BMW I’d suspect he’d simply use that as collateral via debt. John is right about debt for most startups but as an owner sometimes you have to jump in full.

     

    Also, I'm going to work backward on timing. BMW's 2013 are out and I think hit dealers in early Sep. Assuming that the builds started 45 days prior (reasonable?), components would have to be shipped in June to build up stock, etc. I'm going to be agressive and assume to build a facility and work out the kinks is going to only take 3-4 months, working out a deal for space, agreement with a Tier 1 battery supplier will take a couple more so we are at the first of the year if we have hopes to be in a 2014 model.

     

    This excludes the idea that TG would be negotiating with BMW before then but it wouldn't be public. John, for a company the size of AXPW would signing of a contract with BMW be large enough to require any public filing? I know that cancelling of revenue of a material size would require one but I don't know about an addition.

     

    These are the thoughts running through my head that keep my position size what it is and has me considering pulling a little bit back. The notice on here of the shipping receipt is the only thing having me hold through Nov 15th as I want to see those #s.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu,
    The rare communicative condition reffered to as Axionistitis is currently treated with a daily session of bloodletting.*

     

    *New England School of Medicine, "Rare Diseases and Their Treatments", 2011
    24 Oct 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    I would be content if the MM instead of walking price down to make bid, would walk price up to ask. Or at least try.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Metro: that's only safe to do when you have a buy order in hand that has a higher bid. Otherwise you put your capital at risk.

     

    Shorting, OTOH is *relatively* safer as selling shares short tends to move price down so if you get slightly out of position the likelihood of being able to cover at a lower price is greater than the likelihood of being able to sell what you bought higher at an even higher price.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13436) | Send Message
     
    Right, HTL. Its also how the algorithmic trading programs are written, by no coincidence.
    24 Oct 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    OT: anyone watching this?

     

    The Men Who Built America

     

    http://bit.ly/S4oOnS

     

    lots of Pennsylvania references :-)

     

    If you have Comcast, it's available On-Demand.

     

    History of course remembers those that bet it all ... and didn't lose it all. But for those of a certain age, it's an excellent series.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    I saw the 2032 episode with Thomas Granville. Oops, this only 2012. You didn't read that.
    24 Oct 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I have a question about Axion's dual battery approach.
    Could those of you with more knowledge than myself attempt some estimates or guesses that would try to quantify the additional costs of the dual battery approach as opposed to single PbC?
    I have to say, I really don't like the need to go dual-battery: by the time you put in the cost of the other battery (admittedly a low-end, relatively cheap battery) and then the electronic control costs, you've eaten into the PbC's price advantage relative to lithium-ion (and obviously increased the price disadvantage relative to other options like lead with carbon additives, which, admittedly, are no great fix). You've also added even more weight. I'd like to try to quantify this better. Thoughts appreciated.
    24 Oct 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29433) | Send Message
     
    A smallish flooded battery is a $50 to $60 item. The electronics additions are insignificant. Lithium-ion has been validated by several automakers for Low volume EV and HEV applications. Those tests are worthless when it comes to validating a battery for micro-hybrid duty cycles and while the lithium optimists might like to believe differently, the lithium solutions are about where the PbC was in December 2009. Their torture test hasn't even started.
    24 Oct 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2162) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, a quick pass for the two battery approach is $250-$400 for the battery, and probably less than $100 for the electronics. One alternative is two batteries with AGM, which might drop the battery price by $100, and will most likely fail within a year. One could use one battery, and expect failure in a month or two, maybe even sooner.

     

    A lithium battery is a potential solution (more $$, perhaps double), but there is still a similar electronics cost. There are questions about Li temperature stability and safety, depending on the chemistry. The weight savings is perhaps 10 pounds.

     

    A single PbC is a poor solution, as self-discharge would likely fail the "airport test", parked for several weeks without charging.

     

    These are very rough off-the-cuff numbers. Others may supply more accurate numbers.
    24 Oct 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29433) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday Dow Chemical said it was going to impair it's lithium battery assets. We'll probably never know how big the impairment is because it takes a huge number to be a line item disclosure for Dow, but it's one more ARRA battery grant failure.
    24 Oct 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    Who knew Dow had lithium battery assets?

     

    Anyone with a particularly good link?

     

    I do remember something about solar shingles (or was that DuPont ... I get those 2 confused :-( )
    24 Oct 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    WTB, I've not followed it closely but If I recall correctly they were getting in a few years back. Long shot with my old memory but I thought I remembered something about them and 3M. If I find something of value I'll post it.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29433) | Send Message
     
    Dow-Kokam was one of the headline ARRA battery grant recipients in August 2009. While sometimes it's hard to be me, I got a chance tonight to pass that tidbit along to James Miller of the DOE's Vehicle Technologies Program who hadn't heard yet. It was worth 1001 troll comments.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Here's the list of some later DOE funding for both Dow Kokam and 3M.

     

    http://bit.ly/RW4cuJ
    24 Oct 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29433) | Send Message
     
    The Dow Kokam ARRA grant was $161 million.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, That's a little more meaningful.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    JP: you can mask any gloating in the guise of helping to educate public employees! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    Thanks for the link. Did anybody else get chills looking at the list?? From a fire safety perspective, I have to wonder about mixing of lithium technology with the use of magnesium and carbon fiber for a light weight car. http://bit.ly/TArR9c

     

    Just in case that was too much for some of you. http://bit.ly/RW7YUP
    24 Oct 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29433) | Send Message
     
    I was very careful to just mention it in passing before changing the subject to A123 which I picked on when it was a $20 stock but spoke highly about when it was a $3 stock.

     

    But there times when a thinly veiled double gloat is pleasant.
    24 Oct 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Like the old VW bug engines when they'd catch on fire.

     

    PS, I like the trailer tenement building. Especially the penthouse suite for the view! I wonder if you need a special key for an elevator to get up there!
    24 Oct 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, Rick's directional number is probably as good as any.

     

    I also wish the PBC was a great one battery contender but alas because of it's hybrid capacitive contributor it, like ultracaps, is not a great solution as a stand alone energy storage device due to the airport test. I also would note, as Rick mentioned, that there is little doubt that mass and volume are very large considerations in motive apps. That's why we see automakers like BMW and GM working very hard on introducing light weight materials like carbon fiber and magnesium stampings.

     

    On the electronics side we already have the cost of voltage regulation going up because of things like SS. Gone are the days when the vehicle just dumped/delayed the load inside the vehicle until the engine started up the alternator. With SS you have to maintain the load and pay for the extra regulation required to handle the sag and the transients during the many starts. Not to mention all the measuring/calculating in the BMS to attempt to assure battery SOC and life.

     

    As the expectations go up on the electrical system as more and more functions are moved off of the power take off from the ICE to electric motors the electrical load is only going up. Couple this up with Mr./Ms. wired consumer expectations and you've got real challenges. Could be we're already into the need for a two storage system next gen. car anyway. Or maybe a bigger LAB is already useless because of SS, hotel loads and the infotainment center.

     

    The reason it's hard to just put a cost on one aspect of a thing like PbC/flooded vs Lithium vs etc. Is because there are so many other things going on. Lithium might require thermal conditioning. The only app I've seen so far is Porsche and they have you putting the LAB back in during cold weather. Also they might wish to package the battery in the passenger compartment but I'll bet the actuary tables say "Don't do that!". So just one example but there are literally thousands of considerations concerning things like cost, placement, climate, regulations, market expectations etc. that come into play in making the selection.

     

    I'll also post this in case you missed it the other day. In the case where vehicle designers are looking to shut down the engine at high speeds via an electrified vehicle control system redundancy becomes very very important. I'm sure the passenger car industry, in doing drive by wire, is using lessons learned from the aerospace industry. But anyway, Hella is saying we want two energy storage solutions if we are going to shut down the engine at high speeds. Smart.

     

    http://bit.ly/VjMXnU
    24 Oct 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco,
    I don't know if you like writing such detailed responses but, I sure love reading them and learning from them. Thanks
    24 Oct 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco, Rick, JP, thanks. It sounds more and more to me like PbC's potential niche in auto really is the heavier, next-gen micro-hybrids rather than ordinary/light SS.
    24 Oct 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, My writing skills are not the best. :(

     

    We all have various backgrounds and skill sets which when brought together make this form a great asset. Helps unbelievably on both the DD side and in tempering the thought process.

     

    I'm glad I can contribute a small piece besides my very limited humor on occasion! :))

     

    PS. This form also helps at times like these when the share price is not so good. People are very irrational when it comes to money as it stirs a lot of anxiety for good reason. This form helps us burn some of that anxiety and to stay focused on the underlying risks/fundamentals of the company. Doesn't assure a positive outcome but it hopefully is making us better in our decisions on when we should individually buy, sell or hold.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, I think that's where it shines the most is in the higher mass more electrified vehicle area. But if you read much of my babble, I'm not such a fan of how they are handling the lower end SS systems today due to poor low cost energy storage options. Maybe if the PbC was more mature and thus had a lower industrialized cost structure a small PbC/flooded combo would fit the bill for a system that actually works. These lower end vehicles are just so darn up front (not life of ownership) cost sensitive.

     

    But hey. That's how many new technologies are launched. They start out servicing the more affluent and work their why down to the masses via continuous improvement.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    OMG, I finally have to root for "trickle down?"

     

    This is disturbing :-)

     

    And I'm not Catholic, so there's no Confessional booth easily available.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    INDELCO>

     

    I have been thinking (always dangerous) about the long video interview with a battery developer who commented that the battery for the Buick Lacross E-assist costs something like $5K. I don't know how big a battery (in terms of capacity) they use in that system, but the battery developer went on to say that the battery costs and resulting price are limiting sales of the vehicle.

     

    We know GM is fooling around with the PbC and I think JP speculated if might be investigating the PbC as a possible battery for the Lacross E-Assist model. Do you have any idea how well the PbC would meet the needs of the LaCross E-assist as a replacement for the current batteries? Any guess how many PbC's would be needed? I suppose they would need a flooded battery also for airport test to boot right?

     

    My totally untechnical mind keeps wondering how Axion could incorporate a dual battery in one package - PbC and flooded - and reduce the total space required?
    24 Oct 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2096) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I don't think one would want a combo PbC+LAB package, due to the big difference in lifespan.

     

    Unless they were modular components that snapped together like Lego bricks, you would be throwing out the PbC baby with the LAB bathwater when the LAB portion needed to be replaced.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    WT,
    That was very funny. Thanks for that.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Psst, it's not "form," it's "forum."

     

    While I am at it, it's not "of coarse," but "of course."

     

    Ahh...the kindred Wiki-effects this blog maintains.

     

    I think your writing skills, which is the adroit ability to convey a point, or points, is excellent.

     

    Heading off to the Ford Dealership in about a half hour, and will, as you suggested, be taking along some links. Not sure I'm going to use them, as I don't want to come across as, YOU IDIOTS ARE SCREWING UP AND ARE GOING TO PISS OFF EVERY NEW FORD OWNER EQUIPPED WITH STOP/START!
    24 Oct 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: Do we know there's a big difference if the common VRLA/AGM doesn't have to carry hotel loads any longer?

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I'm not so sure the PBC is suitable for the E-Assist in it's current form. The E-Assist is a high voltage system (130V) which is actually using a motor to add torque when accelerating. Even though it's only low level single digit horsepower the power requirements are probably not as well suited for that many PBC cells stepped up to the voltage and current requirements.

     

    Good layout in this emergency response document.

     

    http://bit.lyLw0DYy~/media/Files/PD...

     

    If Axion could get the cost of the PbC down to where I think it could be when fully scaled it might make sense to do a dual flooded/PbC hybrid pack. I'm not a big fan though because they have such different service lives. Plus, for vehicle packaging, it might make more sense to keep them separate. Flooded by the starter/generator where it's work occurs and PbC under the drivers seat or trunk where there is room available and best for longest life.

     

    These are just some quick thoughts and I'd have to dig deeper to see what number of cells might make sense for a PbC in this app. given the power requirements of the electric motor. I could be all wet and a group of small 16V PbCs might make sense given the power/duty cycle requirements? If they are anywhere near 5kUSD for the Hitachi battery pack they have to be looking hard for more reasonably priced energy storage options.

     

    Edit, Sorry the link got truncated to a length that didn't work. It's probably a few layers down.
    24 Oct 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    See Maya, I'm not a very good writer! :( Need Grammar, spell and yeah, That's what I mean check! I doubt you'd be up to such a boring task more than for an occasional smile!

     

    I look forward to the outcome of your discussions with the guys at the F dealership!
    24 Oct 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2096) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I don't think we really know 1) if cheapest FLA would be used or more costly VRLA/AGM; 2) if the increased demands on the starter battery of multiple daily engine-on events, increased by an order of magnitude for Idle Start Stop systems, will be all that healthy for the FLA or AGM used as the starter battery.

     

    The intent of a two battery system is to pass the "airport test." But if you are putting 20+ engine start loads on the starter battery per daily commute, rather than two starts, you have increased the shallow cycling events by an order of magnitude, even if the hotel drain is eliminated by putting that burden on the PbC. Sulfation is still an issue in decreasing life span in the starter battery, and it is still occurring, even if at a diminished rate due to shallower depth of discharge cycles.

     

    I suppose it depends on how sophisticated the battery management electronics are. If they can transfer the multiple restart loads to the PbC when it has enough charge to handle both hotel loads and starting loads, and the starter battery is only used for cold starts, not hot restarts in the ISS cycle, then the starter battery should last a good while.
    24 Oct 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    If the "airport test" is the biggest concern for the PbC and SS cars then it's really not a concern for me and the many millions of car owners like me. I haven't been on a plane for about 15 years and have no intention of flying any time soon. My cars rarely sit more than 2 or 3 days without being started. When I need to I give 'em a jump and off I go.
    Now I have a unit from Car Quest in the trunk. It's a portable battery pack...don't know what kind of chemistry it is and don't care...probably Li-on...I connect the red cable to the positive battery terminal and the black cable to the negative, press the button and voila, 1,000 cranking amps starts the car. I disconnect the cables, through the unit back in the trunk and away I go. When necessary I can charge the unit in my garage at non-peak power prices (or a solar panel if I ever get one). I can jump anyone's car on the street and usually pick up some "Thank you very much" lunch money for the service.
    Being portable means no exotic, expensive electrical control systems are needed on the car. I'm even thinking of running cables (the correct gauge, of course) from my battery jump terminals to the trunk, so I wouldn't even have to lift the hood to give myself a quicker jump.
    Before you think this strategy is silly, remember, it isn't for the one percent, or the sixty percent, but for the millions in this country who get by with less as a matter of choice. That's a big market. The NS999 will be in the shop getting PbC's installed before I drop $70 bucks for a new Wal-mart battery! (cheap beats cool, JP).
    There's a shortage of old batteries in the US now causing imports of new lead to soar and the junk price of old batteries to hit $10 to $14 bucks each. I guess more folks must be holding off buying new batteries and stretching the life of the old ones to the maximum.
    Thanks for all the info you guys post, I really like reading this stuff. Remember, there are many niche markets and classes (lower, mid-lower, upper-lower, lower-middle, middle, upper, etc. each with their own ideas of "value").
    I am long 17,800 AXPW and wish'n&hopin' to buy more at the current bargain basement PPS. Hey, when AXPW soars because of SS I will rush to be "first" to buy one...get my Gold Star ready!!
    TimZ
    24 Oct 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2651) | Send Message
     
    WT -

     

    "And I'm not Catholic, so there's no Confessional booth easily available."

     

    Then you don't need one! <:=)
    24 Oct 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Getting what looks like an increased emphasis on updating their web presence and marketing effort going.

     

    http://bit.ly/RgTem6

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    New topic,
    Since we seem to be at a dry spot I was thinking. We know that the eyes of Axion follow this blog. Why not help the sales department by giving out a string of ideas as to products that might have a use for a battery that accepts rapid charge and gives a rapid discharge.
    Obviously, we know the present list of Hub,RR,Autos, and oil rigs.

     

    What about other niche market ideas. I believe OTR trucking, marine use and fork lifts have previously been mentioned.

     

    Question. What product uses energy and reciprocates or cycles in such a way "The Carbonator" battery (PbC) could be an asset to that product?
    24 Oct 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2651) | Send Message
     
    Fut -
    Check my query to all early in this string.
    24 Oct 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    As I understand DCA it implies the PbC accepts charge faster and with less expenditure of energy to deliver the charge stored. Both features strike me as positives although the latter may be relatively small on a per charge basis. If that understanding is valid, then ISTM electric golf carts would be a prospective market. PbC's don't have the energy density of LABs but the have comparable or better recoverable energy with longer service life and weight less for the same battery size. With those characteristics, PbCs should power the carts equal or greater distances, take charges faster and at less cost, and last longer.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv,
    I suspect your correct about using them in a golf cart if the recoverable energy is enough to make up the lack of stored energy in comparison to a LAB. The last set of LABs I bought for my golfcart was 4 batteries for $600.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Only with regenerative braking I think, if you're going for size and weight comps. Even then, might be marginal. But with a solar panel on top of the carts - then you've got something ... "Green Creds" most times of the year. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Oddly, there's a golf cart manufacturer right next door to Axion, in New Castle.
    24 Oct 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    I don't know. There is a part over here that looks like it's getting kinda dry. Or at least it looks drier than it did the last time I looked, which was just a little while ago. I think. But then this bit over on this other section still looks glossy, like it's still pretty wet. Thinking about touching it to check but don't want to get paint on my fingers and leave fingerprints. So I guess I'll just keep watching and wait a little longer.

     

    D
    24 Oct 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Know your audience.

     

    The electric car that isn't: anomaly thwarts progress

     

    http://bit.ly/Rh4sH8
    24 Oct 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Like JP said, "cheap beats cool". Must be a universal trait among the not-1% and not-government official.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that consumers want cheap and the government thinks they should have cool.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Cheap?

     

    Hand raised while looking for the deal! ;) (No access to unlimited riches or other peoples money. No wait, When I spend other people's money I spend it like it's mine. Unqualified for public service in most cases.)
    24 Oct 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh the joys of automotive. To get the contract you must have capacity in place before start of production. If the volume forecasts are not right and the vehicle/offering bombs....you're SOL. If you're successful you'll get all the gruel you can eat... for awhile!

     

    Energy Storage Experts Explain What Happened at Battery Firm A123

     

    http://bit.ly/TaU6Vx
    24 Oct 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Nice article about A123 and confirms some of the challenges I have long suspected that Axion will face trying to land the big fish oem order. Overall it helps explain how tough it can be to do business with the BIGs. Some of these things may be reflected in our own stock price. =(
    24 Oct 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    bazooooka, Yep, You're right on the money. Automotive is like NY. If you can make it there you can make it anywhere. It's a ton of work with very low margins but the badge is recognized anywhere.

     

    http://bit.ly/TAGo4R
    24 Oct 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    This is looking like pure puter play. Little nibbles on the spread. I could be wrong but it just doesn't look like retail. Who's going to keep taking 5 to 7K nibbles with around 7 USD commissions? And all these odd lots.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, the Ford Dealership did not have any stop/start cars on their lot. I joked with the Service Department Manager, who remembered our past conversation, that, "My Ford Dealership is a smart Ford Dealership."

     

    After talking at length about Ford Europe, and how in Europe, complaints are appearing on the Internet about some frustrations with stop/start failing, also including BMW, the Service Department Manager (SDM) told me past stories of how Ford knew that some Mustangs would have to be recalled, and rather than push them to market, Ford let them sit until a remedy was figured out.

     

    He maintained that Ford, if it knows of any defective part or feature, is adamant about bringing to market any cars, trucks, or SUVs, unless they are 100% perfect.

     

    We talked again about how the current AGM battery would render stop/start useless in 2.5 to 8 months, and that if or when Ford does deliver some stop/start cars to be sold locally, that they will likely come with a two battery system. The SDM is totally against lithium, understands the costs, the dangers of accidents, or towing, and the problems with recycling, and a big broad smile popped onto his face when I informed him that the PbC is 99.7% recyclable.

     

    I also talked with injected humor about the recent Ford video that states it's "normal" for the stop/start feature to not always work. And added that the Chevy Volt is under informal recall because the car stops running...while one is driving it. "It's a crazy world," the SDM replied.

     

    I think the SDM is now a little more aware of the dilemma about how the EPA is demanding less emissions, and how the governments here in Europe and the US are pressing automakers to increase fleet wide mileage standards, that when it comes to stop/start, the existing battery technology is insufficient to make stop/start work for more than mere months after a purchase. And, that a lithium solution is still wildly too expensive.

     

    The SDM also said something interesting. He inferred that if what I was telling him about the PbC is true, then there is no doubt in his mind that Ford is looking seriously at the PbC as an answer. And concluded, that's why there are no stop/start cars yet on the lot for sale.

     

    He still has my number, remembered that I started this blog, was very impressed to what Enders Dickerson had to say about it, was blown away that the blog passed 33,000 comments this past Sunday, and said that when a Focus, or some other stop/start vehicle comes to the dealership for sale, he would call me. I smiled and said that's great, and from this blog, I now know how together we can "torture" the car.

     

    He smiled.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing your first hand encounter with the Ford dealership. It's good to know what is going on with the initial American stop/start attempts.

     

    It's great to have an Axionista salesman to inform the dealership!
    24 Oct 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, iindelco: Thanks! I was quite taken with the Service Department Manager's conclusion that the battery issue was why there were no stop/start vehicles for sale on the lot.

     

    That's a biggie, IMO.

     

    Next up? A childhood friend owns the largest Chevy Dealership in western PA. I'll hopefully be paying him a visit next week.

     

    Here's the dealership's website:

     

    http://bit.ly/RWhojn

     

    He also owns Kia, Subaru, Honda, Toyota and Acura dealerships.
    24 Oct 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Maya, What access. Now you're talking about a dealership group so you'll get a view of the bigger picture perhaps. I think Kia might have some SS systems in the US market by now. Not positive though.

     

    Maybe he can give you some face time with their top battery/charge system tech. You'll have to take time driving home as your head will be swimming!
    24 Oct 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Bang,

     

    I think you need to use your status as a former sales executive to get Maya and others who have spoken to dealers on the official Axion sales force.
    24 Oct 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Go get 'em tiger! Good work - informal education of folks that will need to know someday.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    "the Chevy Volt is under informal recall because the car stops running...while one is driving it."

     

    :-) Not GM's first experience with the issue. I had an '87 Buick LeSabre that would entertain its driver that way from time to time. First occurrence was on InterState 81 in Virginia @ ~70 mph along side an 18 wheeler.
    24 Oct 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Well gang <sigh>, tonight while sharing dinner with my sister and bro-in-law (at the Victory Brewer), I was informed that Hurricane Sandy may be a doozie, possibly even worse than last year, which oddly, Sandy is predicted to pounce on this region exactly the same day as the "Snowtober" event did last year. Surely some of you recall that power outages and a lot of damage occurred all up and down the east coast. IIRC, I was without power for more than a day.

     

    This Sandy could be nasty, worse, a veritable monster, as a polar blast will sweep in behind it, and possibly dump significant amounts of heavy, wet snow from the Great Lakes and down through the Appalachias. I'm reading it could work out to be BOTH a nor'easter and a hurricane combined. Apparently, if all goes down as I am reading, the worst case scenario, Sandy could be the worst October storm since 1962! Yikes! With the new naming of nor'easters, will this be the first storm ever to have two names?

     

    My area forecasts presently state 4 to 7 inches of rain expected.

     

    Sandy...what a name...beach erosion, occurring during a full moon, to boot.

     

    We shall see, but it looks like my trip to Pitts. will now be unlikely until at least the following week, or very late next week.

     

    Suggest for all in Sandy's path to be prepared. Be ready to hunker down!

     

    I should have brought home a few grogs from Victory ;-)
    24 Oct 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    Maya -
    I wish you well in your confrontation with Sandy. Having lived through Katrina, I know how you feel.

     

    Good luck.
    25 Oct 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Ughhhh, That looks bad. Here's to hoping something pushes that thing out to sea.

     

    http://wxch.nl/TXXOD1
    25 Oct 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Please not too far to the east!
    25 Oct 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh, Albert! My bad. :(

     

    How hard it must be for leaders to have to choose between horrible and worse.
    25 Oct 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: "Ughhhh" is right. Now the worst case scenario is not heavy, wet snow measured in inches, but in feet.

     

    The latest European model has Sandy's eye coming right over my house!

     

    The behind the scenes reason for my trip to Pittsburgh is to deal with the contents of a storage locker (and to be able to write off the trip for said task).

     

    Not this weekend. Sandy "beached" my trip.
    25 Oct 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Thanks for the input and your role as an educational emissary. I bet he appreciates it as well.
    24 Oct 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    New newa on the Axion home page,
    Oct 24, 2012
    Axion Power™ launches new videos of the PowerCube™ battery energy storage system & PbC® battery technology.
    Oct 3, 2012

     

    Sorry If someone already mentioned this.
    24 Oct 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    Mon 10/21 (sorry if this is a duplicate)

     

    UPDATE 1-Johnson Controls sets Q4 restructuring, pension charges

     

    "An economic slowdown in Europe, higher lead costs and weak battery demand have pressured the company, a leading supplier of vehicle batteries, to review its cost structure."

     

    http://reut.rs/Rhje0I
    24 Oct 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    Quick, shoot an email to JCI and tell them we can help them cut costs on lead!! Oh, I only wish it were that easy. ;-)
    24 Oct 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    It will be interesting to hear what Exide has to say
    25 Oct 2012, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Yet JCI has money to be buying up A123? That doesn't sound right.
    25 Oct 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Totally off topic, but please give a click to my first article for Forbes http://onforb.es/UFr1b4
    25 Oct 2012, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Jon,
    Congratulations on your success. .
    25 Oct 2012, 04:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Jon: Is this the one that was delayed so long? Congrats!

     

    Off to read it now.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Good article. Well done - I hope more follow.
    25 Oct 2012, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (291) | Send Message
     
    Well written and interesting. I am glad you directed me to it.
    25 Oct 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thanks all. Eight months from interview to publication. Hope to build toward something. Interviewed a great guy in Sri Lanka for Forbes two days ago that will hopefully publish a little quicker. All a process. One step at a time.
    25 Oct 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Good work, Jon.
    25 Oct 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting Jon. Thanks for sharing your success with us and looking forward to many more.
    25 Oct 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13436) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff, Jon. Well written and very interesting. Some suggestions for Forbes:

     

    1. Make your name a link to a bio.

     

    2. They keep running their more senior writers' names under the title of every page of an article (even when its not written by that writer) with a link to their most recent article. Annoying. They should stop doing this.

     

    3. I noticed several ? marks in odd places and a very few typos (formatting errors where the bloc of type did not correctly flow around the graphics). I believe the ? marks represent punctuation which was incompatible with the web page format...

     

    4. I want to see your pic under the "Our Writers" bloc, with an associated link and bio.

     

    You done good!
    25 Oct 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations, Jon. Fantastic job in blending a human interest success story with a natural resource success story. Well done!
    25 Oct 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Trip: I have a couple of times been given the welcomed chance to read (proof) an archeological or anthropological paper before it hits the press. Have seen the "?" before, and this is used as a kind of flag for "incomplete" editing, usually by an assistant to a Senior Editor.

     

    My agent has also used the same approach, although in the margin she always suggests what correction is needed.

     

    ####

     

    "Our Writers" bloc" For me? Add a "k." ;-)
    25 Oct 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for these nice words.

     

    Read, acknowledged and grinning.

     

    I agree with many of the critiques of the site, but I think I need a few more publications before I hit the suggestion box too hard.

     

    Really do appreciate a lot all the kind words
    25 Oct 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2096) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    You keep us entertained and well informed. I look forward to reading about your latest explorations and thoughts about investing in interesting places. Thanks.
    25 Oct 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations. Big Time!!!
    26 Oct 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    JS,
    Well, with 3 accomplished writers on these blogs, I guess I'll have to mind my semantic Ps and Qs. Good job and interesting subject.
    25 Oct 2012, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    10/12/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in 30 min or so)
    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 11000, Vol 208128, AvTrSz: 4625
    Min. Pr: 0.2812, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2881
    # Buys, Shares: 19 88650, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2898
    # Sells, Shares: 26 119478,VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2868
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.35 (42.6% “buys”), DlyShts 30500 (14.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.53%

     

    Daily shorts sales continues to do it's normal up and down with apparent loss of volatility in the long-term trend. Volume was down from yesterday about 33% and shorts were down only 4K, ~13.5%. I just think it's shorts doing covering buys and increasing their profits by selling shares backing prior sell orders when they flow in.

     

    There was little remarkable about today's price or volume – it continues behaving as it so often does with ATDF apparently sparking most moves down by being impatient and moving to the top of both the ask and bid lines. Iindelco mentioned the possibility that computers were doing the trading, which I had been considering for some days recently. It wouldn't surprise me if this was an arbitrage algorithm running on a computer somewhere – just too much predictability to be the normal mix of humans with different price points and considerations driving their decisions.

     

    On the traditional TA front, nothing has really changed. Price compression, falling volume, still pushing down on my experimental lower Bollinger and pushing up on the short-term rising resistance (11 days old now) and the 50-day SMA.

     

    Price formed a “spinning top” candlestick again – price is apparently getting ready to do something but the normal oscillators can't find agreement among themselves. DRich did mention that the MACD he follows suggests a move up in five days.

     

    On my experimental charts ...

     

    Average trade size continues to bounce a bit. The short-term trend may be moving towards smaller sizes, breaking the trend towards larger average sizes it had been in. It's had to tell for sure yet – it may be just volatility leaving this metric, as is happening in the daily short sales. It will bear watching though.

     

    Buy:sell is staying mostly right around the mid-range since the 10/17 944K trading day on 10/17, but VWAP flattened now, ceasing its slow creep down.

     

    On my new inflection point calculations, the 10 period has moved above 0, now sitting at +53.63, up from yesterday's (80.79). All but the five-day are moving up and the 50-period has crossed above the 100-period metric. Another day or two of this and I might be convinced they're telling us a move up is near.

     

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" is omitted from the concentrator.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Oct 2012, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    ?10/12/2012?
    25 Oct 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17244) | Send Message
     
    Pascquale: LoL! Just checking, just checking ... :-))

     

    Of course, s/b 10/24/2012. That's what I get for trying to finish it up last night as I was being called for dinner, which is why it didn't post last night.

     

    Thanks, I'll correct my instablog while it's fresh on my mind.

     

    HardToLove.
    25 Oct 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    Please form a double line at the entrance to the next concentrator, have your ticket stubs ready for our ticket-taker, and proceed to the entrance in an orderly fashion.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    25 Oct 2012, 07:57 AM Reply Like
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