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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/SxfPf4
    31 Oct 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    " http://bit.ly/SxfPf4 "

     

    Today's closing price?
    31 Oct 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    No D-inv.

     

    That would have been this image perhaps.

     

    http://bit.ly/VG4iaP
    1 Nov 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    At this very moment, Kudlow and Bartiromo on CNBC grilling the pres of Edison electric about the lack of robustness of the antiquated electrical grid. Probably going to be a lot more of this in the next several weeks and perhaps later a renewed push to upgrade, modernize, and enhance...
    31 Oct 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    What better time than when a large percentage of it is wrecked and in need of replacement anyway?
    31 Oct 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Particularly if its paid for by the federal government...
    31 Oct 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    FPA:, you meant, of course, "paid for by the tax payers..."?

     

    In all honesty though, times of dire emergency, even considering lack of needed maintenance in the past, seem to justify a little "collective effort" to me. As long as the commercial enterprise involved is not profiting from it.

     

    Yeah, right!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    HTL, you're mistaken. (humor attempt follows)

     

    Most fedgov money is printed to order these days and costs the taxpayer nothing. Unless you consider the intangibles like economic repression and long term systemic damage. But the EU has a Fund that takes care of those types of problems. No sweat.
    1 Nov 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    SHB: Humor noted. Google for "debt money" and you'll see that you omitted a few side-effects though.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Quiet night. Hope y'all managed to get through okay. Lots of trees down here in central NJ. People all around with no power. Street lights down and traffic lights dark. 200 people with 400 containers queued up at the local EXXON for generator gas.
    31 Oct 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    EM, good to hear from you. Sorry to hear about your power situation.

     

    I gather that the local EXXON station has backup power to operate its' pumps.
    31 Oct 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1825) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/SpzF9p

     

    Thought this one might resonate with you guys.

     

    D
    1 Nov 2012, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie,
    Was just imaging the scenario where EV's were the current technology and ICE cars were being introduced that offered longer autonomy, were cheaper, faster, and took less time to "charge. Seems that technology is taking us backwards in some aspects.

     

    Just wonder who would buy a new model of laptop that was more expensive, slower, takes longer to charge and the battery lasts for a shorter time.
    1 Nov 2012, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    "The largest chunk, $1.4 billion, went to corporate giant Nissan for its Leaf. Its range: 73 miles per charge, according to the EPA, and less according to complaints by its owners. Just about the same range as the taxi that killed Henry Bliss in 1899."

     

    How far we've come. Well, at least our governance is far better.
    1 Nov 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The French would say "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose."
    1 Nov 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Bah oui
    1 Nov 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Don't speak French. :(

     

    But I figured it out before I confirmed. :)
    1 Nov 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    My latest hit TheStreet this morning – http://bit.ly/Rveb9D

     

    I should have another up on SA later today about A123 being a suckers bet.
    1 Nov 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    10/31/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from the instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 393, MaxTrSz: 63100, Vol 248527, AvTrSz: 6372
    Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2723
    # Buys, Shares: 29 198734, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2726
    # Sells, Shares: 10 49793, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2708
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.99:1 (80.0% “buys”), DlyShts 30993 (12.47%)

     

    There were two AH trades, 2K at $0.271 and 8.9K at $0.270, that aren't included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add these two total FINRA-reported volume the short percentage moves from 13.4% to 12.47%. If we also add it to the short sales it moves to 16.86%. Although we believe Quercus is not in the market any longer, it seems worthwhile to consider the possibility they might be because we keep seeing selling pressure. It could be do to other players though. Anyway, 1/11th of the days volume, including the AH trades, would be ~22.6K. Depending on what trades near the end of the day we include, including the AH trades regardless, we can see 20.9K to 25.9K at prices of $0.270-$0.271 that might be some kind of market-maker balancing trades if Quercus or someone else selling ~10% of volume is in the market.

     

    First in the traditional TA area ...

     

    In the prior post (Friday, 10/26), while looking for positives, I commented “From this, it seems that we have good support at the $0.27 area now as both times we saw trading come right back into the $0.27xx+ and higher area. This can be seen by checking the VWAPs for those days - $0.2807 on 215K for 10/26 and $0.2873 on 598K for 10/2”.

     

    So far, so good if you check today's narrow spread and the buy:sell in this price range. It's also encouraging that as the price today had a higher low and a lower high in a lower price range, we didn't see a big increase in volume, which would've suggested that downward momentum was developing.

     

    The low, which was below my experimental lower Bollinger (which is still dropping) Friday, managed to ride on it today rather than pushing below again. But I'm not taking heart yet – on Level 2 I see MAXM market-maker on the ask at $0.271 (08:43) and I expect that they, ATDF, maybe NITE, BTIG might do their usual jumping to the head of the line on the ask unless we see someone on the bid side start showing up with strength.

     

    Further, all the oscillators are showing weakness again. However, keep in mind the volume (“The Truth Teller”) is not yet supportive of a downward momentum.

     

    Moving on to my experimental stuff ...

     

    Daily short sales percentage remains low, albeit climbing, continuing the apparent long-term reduction in volatility. Factoring the recent short sales counts (in thousands) and VWAPs, 137.20 ($0.2919), 35.25 ($0.2866), 30.50 ($0.2881), 16.12 ($0.2912), 21.14 ($0.2807), and 30.99 ($0.2723), it's apparent to me that the market-makers are taking advantage of falling price to do covering buys and releasing the incoming shares, which backed prior sell orders received, into the market. This increases their profit and also drives price lower.

     

    It will take strong buying to overcome this pressure. At some point the “covering buys” will become unattractive (when price spread is too narrow? Possibly as with yesterday?) and shorts will jump higher again and price will have the opportunity to improve. I'm hoping that yesterday's narrow spread has brought us to that point.

     

    Average trade sizes continue to consolidate with the highs and lows move semi-progressively towards the averages in the retail range, IMO.

     

    The new buy:sell inflection-point calculations (all three versions) are looking interesting. The longer-term numbers are moving rapidly from well above the zero value (which is expected in light of recent vs. Distant-past action) as the short-term ones have come from well-below the zero value to now be at or above that level. If my examination is correct, in the past when the three short-term ones all flip upwards together we get some price movement upwards.

     

    I'll stop here so I can post this before the open, hopefully.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
     
    Enjoyed the article John, liked especially your comment; business models that can't make it without subsidies, can't make it with them, and always need just a little more to get over the "hump". Is the "hump" growing faster than the subsidies? Sure seems that way.
    1 Nov 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The size of the hump is an exponential multiple of the cumulative subsidies to help companies over the hump. While I'm not sure what the exponent is, because the goal is to always keep the top of the hump in clear view, it's very much like the carrot on a stick that will keep the tax paying work horse pulling forever as he tries to reach the unattainable.

     

    I thought it was a good article but it will probably draw little attention because it doesn't mention the Fremont Toymaker Who Shall Not Be Named.
    1 Nov 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Excellent article John. Succinct and ought to open a few eyes.

     

    I especially liked the comments about the Li-ion folks rethinking their targets. That may allow them to survive and prosper regardless of the governments attempts to misdirect them.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Amazingly that article has been up for nearly 5 hours and has zero comments. JP, you must be feeling lonely!
    1 Nov 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I knew I should have worked Tesla in there somewhere, but frankly I've grown tired of the entire subject. I may write one more article after Tesla's Q3 numbers are released, but even that seems like a waste of time at this point because everybody who's willing to learn has had ample opportunity.
    1 Nov 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Amazing pictures of the Fiskar's.

     

    http://bit.ly/PJnzvf?
    1 Nov 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    MrHolty: gives me a blank screen in Firefox.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I like these better

     

    http://bit.ly/RxfmXX

     

    http://bit.ly/RxfxCv
    1 Nov 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    As a covert operation, the U.S., through an intermediary, could sell some A123 batteries to the Iranians to use at their uranium enrichment facility.
    1 Nov 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Works for me with Firefox. Strange.
    1 Nov 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Metro, I can see the labels on the batteries now.

     

    For proper maintenance wash thoroughly with salt water. Batteries will smoke to signal when they are clean.
    1 Nov 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I re-installed Java 7 JIC, still no joy. Maybe I'm missing an extension or add-on. I tend to keep that stuff to a minimum.

     

    Oh well.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Wow!

     

    Zombie apocalypse automobaubles!

     

    http://bit.ly/Ysd8fD

     

    >>An eyewitness told Jalopnik (which like the rest of the Gawker websites, continues to be down after Sandy drowned its data center but is broadcasting temporarily from this site), that the Karma sedans “first submerged in a storm surge and then caught fire, exploded.”<<
    1 Nov 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Maybe your CPU is overloaded with all the AXPW trading activity? ;))

     

    Might not need your spread sheet today to run the stats. A little mental math should work just fine unless things REALLY heat up. Then you'll need fingers perhaps.

     

    Could we be seeing a little low volume from exhaustion? Or maybe our seller is out cleaning up the lawn!
    1 Nov 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    "It was reported today that several Fisker Karmas were damaged by fire at the Port of Newark after being submerged in sea water during Superstorm Sandy. We can report that there were no injuries and none of the cars were being charged at the time."

     

    ...We can also report now that the fires were caused by auto-destruct mechanisms that are included as standard equipment on all Fisker Karmas. The cars self-destruct, upon being exposed to sea water, with the assumption that the cars have sunk at sea during shipment. This self-destruction protocol is enabled to prevent King Triton, king of the mere people, from stealing our intellectual property.
    ;-)
    1 Nov 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Notice how two Karmas' survived. Notice the empty spot between the dead and the survivors. Maybe one shorted and caught fire and because they were so closely parked together the resulting fire/explosion took the rest with it?
    1 Nov 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    KentG: Could be. I tend to think its just the normal failure rate for the brand. The 2 that didn't explode were the ones with defective battery packs which had already failed long before the hurricane hit.
    1 Nov 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    TB, You can't even rely on them to burn dependably.
    1 Nov 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Hilarious.
    Call Ollie and cut out the middleman!
    1 Nov 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): MM's fishing this am with lures trying to entice sells @ $0.27 now.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Just who might be there left to sell at $0.27? I'm not able to figure out this selling pressure. I can't say there is any reason to buy but the only direction Axion stock knows is down so figuring the catalyst for selling is the only thing to figure out ... and ... if JP & APC is even close to correct on that score ... I got nothin'.
    1 Nov 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I'm in the dark too now. I've got a thought but it'll have to wait until I see if any data supports it. It'll be a week or two if it appears at all.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Pure speculation, but we know there are a lot of East Coast investors (including the financing rounds) in AXPW. Maybe a few have post-Sandy needs for cash to at the least do some repairs, or help family members. Maybe they did some tax loss selling to boot.

     

    Also seemed like end of month pressure yesterday. Pitiful volume today, and the offerers are hanging tough so far (not withstanding my note below which usually instantly results in a push lower.)
    1 Nov 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    We could be seeing the bottom of the willing sellers barrel:

     

    http://bit.ly/YsiIi2

     

    Time will tell.
    1 Nov 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... I know the usual reasons people put forward ... disaster ... need cash ... tax loss ... yada yada. I just don't buy it. Axion wouldn't even cross my mind for raising cash because the position size to be meaningful would swamp normal illiquid volume but I have come to understand I don't understand OTCBB stock investor mentality ... at all.

     

    In my figuring, Axion has hit bottom for supply of stock to sell but doesn't exhibit any of the normal characteristics of doing so. I guess we wait for more to made available before resuming trend or it just moves slower than my impatience can tolerate. There is still room to go to Book. If this company had any debt at all I'd think this bug had found its windshield.

     

    We shall see and my wait for Customer No. 1 continues. Enough, already of my exasperation.
    1 Nov 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Any time you have an extended period of sustained selling, the stable stockholders develop a bunker mentality where they don't want to raise their heads for fear of another dump. They may be willing to do a little bottom feeding, but until the echoes of incoming fire have had some time to die, the fear of the next bombardment is there. I'm intrigued by the very low volume today, but one morning does not make a trend.
    1 Nov 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    60K at least bid at .27 including 50K @ UBSS.
    Best bid is CDEL 8K @ .2701

     

    BTIG, NITE, UBSS all offering 5K @ .28.
    ETRF 20K @ .29

     

    Been sitting with the .01 spread for a while ... who will blink first?

     

    ATDF offer up at .31 (5k) !

     

    MAXM is bidding today ... 5K @ .27 ... go figure.
    1 Nov 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Tom Konrad follows MXWL regularly for Forbes (and eventually republished on SA)

     

    10/26/2012 Maxwell Beats Earnings, But Scares Investors with Guidance

     

    Worries About the Chinese Hybrid Bus Market

     

    "The truck market is more encouraging, with an ultracapacitor based engine start module in field trials with ten large truck fleets. Since this is a drop-in replacement for standard Group 31 truck batteries, uptake should be very rapid once fleet operators appreciate the benefits. Maxwell plans to put significant sales efforts behind this product going forward.

     

    ...

     

    Altogether, Maxwell does not expect any sales growth over the next two quarters, which is a big disappointment to growth investors. However, long-term potential remains strong. The mechanical issue with racking in hybrid buses seems a hiccup, not a long term problem"
    1 Nov 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Come for the Dynapower, get the East Penn in the Frequency Regulation Market for no extra charge:

     

    Dynapower in the News
    by CHISA on OCTOBER 16, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/VG4zuo

     

    2 interesting articles referenced
    1 Nov 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, wtb. The second "Ultrabattery making progress" article of the week. This one is a must read for Axionistas, IMHO.

     

    Looks like East Penn is looking to compete with the PowerCube. . .

     

    Since this is a DOE project, perhaps we'll be able to follow its progress by reading DOE reports.
    1 Nov 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    I like the idea of East Penn sales people educating folks about the next generation of lead-acid batteries and the frequency regulation opportunity.
    When folks become convinced but embark on their due diligence, they may discover that Axion has an even better product.
    1 Nov 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    "East Penn beat a path to Wood's door to obtain a license to develop the Ultrabattery in a stationary application (Furukawa in Japan has the license for automotive work)."

     

    Interesting, maybe the reason for the conversation that JP had about Ultrabattery not focusing on microhybrids?

     

    Also interesting discussion of how the freq req market could develop ...
    1 Nov 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA): I want to pernt out what drives this 'pparent selection. Notice da critical word that "Joe Sixpack" wunt normally be associated wit, I qoutes zactly ...

     

    "America's Leading Automotive Lifestyle Magazine Picks Model S as the Best New Car for 2013"

     

    Now dat you got da hint, Tesla Model S Blows Away the Competition and Wins AUTOMOBILE Magazine's "Automobile of the Year".

     

    http://mwne.ws/Szx8v1

     

    'Splains why (TSLA)'s up 3.64% today I quess. Everybody wants a chick-magnet to fit dere "lifestyle" huh?

     

    I cleaned it for youse!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    I knew there was a reason I didn't re-up my Automobile subscription.
    1 Nov 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    One of the hardest things fiction to do is to write prose in any obtuse dialect.

     

    Tom Wolfe was immense at that. Believe he, as one of the 100 recognized best literary writers last century, would greatly approve.

     

    Well done, my friend!
    1 Nov 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    Yahoo Auto also picks Model S as car of the year
    http://yhoo.it/Tx8qMN

     

    This car just keeps picking up glowing review after glowing review. Draw your own conclusions.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    JRP3: unfortunately, the conclusion I draw is that folks are enamoured of the "latest and greatest", as they always have been, without concern for cost, economic viability and ultimate utility.

     

    Another possible conclusion, although less certain IMO, is that folks that want to make money trading the stock benefit from all this at the sad expense of less ... "cautious" investors.

     

    I've done the same, using options. And now the stock is setting up for another round of the same.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    JRP3,
    Reviews don't pay the bills. Be happy that the reviews don't glow as hot as a Fisker.
    2 Nov 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    Not sure what Tesla has to do with Fisker, but in any case you are correct, reviews don't pay the bills, producing products that inspire passion and blow people away pays the bills. When a car causes hardened, cynical auto journalists to make the following statements it might be worth paying attention:

     

    "We weren't expecting much from the Tesla other than some interesting dinner conversation as we considered "real" candidates like the Subaru BRZ and the Porsche Boxster. In fact, the Tesla blew them, and us, away."

     

    "Of course, practically every new car claims to be revolutionary. But this one actually feels like it is, to the point that many of us were reaching outside the automotive lexicon to describe it. "It reminds me of the first time I used an iPhone," gasped associate web editor Ben Timmins."

     

    These are not "EVangelists" but automotive professionals.
    3 Nov 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The only thing that pays the bills is making a consistent high quality product while controlling costs and increasing market share quarter after quarter after quarter.

     

    Tesla has about 13,000 reservations. It added about 1,750 reservations per quarter for the first three quarters of this year, but has shown no signs of a significant uptick in the reservation rate.

     

    If you start with a reservation base of 13,000, which is the number folks seem to expect at the end of Q3, deplete it by 5,000 per quarter and then replenish it by 1,750 per quarter, the mathematical progression will be as follows:

     

    Q-1-13 – 9,750 reservations
    Q-2-13 – 6,500 reservations
    Q-3-13 – 3,250 reservations
    Q-4-13 – Houston, we have a serious problem

     

    Peak oil may prove to be a myth, but we'll see almost certainly see peak Tesla reservations on Monday of next week.
    3 Nov 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Interesting bit of Edsel timeline.

     

    October 19, 1955: After having problems determining a suitable name for the E-car, renowned poet Marianne Moore was approached to submit inspirational names.

     

    November 7, 1955: Marianne Moore began to offer her list of names, which included such notables as "Resilient Bullet", "Ford Silver Sword", "Mongoose Civique", "Varsity Stroke", "Pastelogram" and "Andante con Moto".

     

    December 8, 1955: Miss Moore submitted her last candidate: "Utopian Turtletop".

     

    Surprisingly, no where on this list of inspirational names does "Twizy" appear.
    3 Nov 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Well after "Utopian Turtletop" it's hard to envision an attempt at a better alternative.

     

    Many, not being able to live the dream, just settled for Turtle Wax. Faux excellence. ;)
    3 Nov 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    What most don't realize is they made an Electric Edsel too:

     

    http://bit.ly/X8Qtqw
    3 Nov 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP: "deplete it by 5,000 per quarter and then replenish it by 1,750 per quarter"

     

    It would appear you are actually admitting that Tesla is going to produce 5000 Model S's per quarter. Congrats on accepting reality.

     

    However, mathematical progressions don't predict the future. If Tesla had no Model S reservation backlog then they'd be just as bad off as Audi, BMW, or Mercedes with their sedans, which also don't have reservation backlogs.

     

    And to think that demand for the cars won't increase as people see them and the wait time for them drops is simply denying human nature. Besides, I predict that last quarter saw the highest reservation rate yet. And, it's still growing.
    3 Nov 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    You read too much into a simple mathematical calculation of what happens if your assumptions are accurate. As long as production rates exceed reservation rates the backlog will decline over time.

     

    I have no idea whether Tesla will ever get to the 5,000 car per quarter level, although I tend to discount that possibility because I think they'll be in deep financial sewage again by the end of Q1-13.

     

    Aside from that the consumer market will do what the consumer market will do. But until we see a significant ramp in the reservation rate, one has to assume that the reservation rate won't ramp and Tesla will be forced back onto the bleeding edge of the auto industry after a couple good quarters,
    3 Nov 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    JRP3,
    Being enthusiastic about a difficult to produce product that doesn't meet the needs or wallet of a very large portion of the consumers in the world, instantly brings up the question of how to pay the bills. Cool and game changing can only go so far for the people that can 1. reasonably afford to shell out that kind of money for a limiting product and then 2. decide that they don't need that money used for other things that may take priority.

     

    I have to admit to the cool factor and great looks of the car, it is fast and quiet, but when I go to buy a new computer I don't need an Intel I7 to read email and surf the web or to do most business office applications, a plain Jane I3 processor will do. I don't know about you, but the I3 will get my dollar. For the average person dollars are hard to come by and the way things are looking will be for quite some time. This is forcing more and more people into the "what can I reasonably afford outlook" and away from the "Iwant" or the "I deserve" outlook.

     

    In the case of Tesla cars, I think they are a niche product aimed at an unsustainable small niche. Let alone the limiting factors of range, charging and aging electrical infrastructure that can't handle a large introduction of plug in electric cars.
    3 Nov 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    Your argument essentially says there is no market for high end versions of any product. Quite obviously that is not even close to being the case. High end products have a strong market and they end up influencing the lower ends of a market segment. At one time your i3 processor specs were top of the line, now they are common place, but without the early adopters buying them as top of the line they would not have become widely adopted. Tesla has always had a clear plan, Roadster - Model S/X - Gen3 sedan. With zero advertizing they have close to 14,000 reservations for a product that can't be purchased without a long waiting period. That product is also getting rave reviews across the board by people in the industry. I would suggest a product like that has a strong potential market and a strong potential for success, and that if Tesla can execute they have the potential to greatly expand their market share.
    4 Nov 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    That's a lot of ifs. Tesla has shown that they can get reservations for about 1,750 cars per quarter. They have not demonstrated an ability to build or sell 5,000 electric cars per quarter, In all fairness, neither had GM until the second quarter of this year. You expect a thriving and rapidly growing market in EVs. I still expect the market to whither as those who desperately want EVs get the car of their dreams and find that the having is far less desirable than the wanting. The only thing that will prove either of us right is time. So kick back, relax and enjoy the autumn.
    4 Nov 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    high end products means more than more expensive to me... it means doing the job better while also offering a more comfortable/ safe solution. i don't see how Tesla products accomplish this in their current state.

     

    having a plan you cannot execute is a pretty weak argument in my book and i cannot help but notice that in spite of the reviews you mention their is an unsurprising failure to meet management's own expectations for their product.

     

    with tesla you have the slow death of another bad business model. they take time to die and until enough financial backs are broken the positive reviews will keep coming.

     

    of course, reading your comment my first question is - why no advertising? could it be delivering the product as promised represents too difficult a proposition? or am i to believe they can afford to wait for more sales to materialize?
    4 Nov 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "...my first question is - why no advertising? could it be delivering the product as promised represents too difficult a proposition? or am i to believe they can afford to wait for more sales to materialize? "

     

    Or could it be that advertising expense is a form of investment which has not been made due to expectation of no return on investment and possible no return of investment?
    4 Nov 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The most effective advertising in the world is advertising disguised as news. The one thing Tesla has in spades is an effective PR department that manages to place several stories a day about how wonderful their products are.

     

    Trust me, Tesla is advertising the hell out of the Model S. They're just not paying for it.
    4 Nov 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    JP, a minor correction. Tesla is spending a LOT of money on marketing, which includes very extensive PR and fake social networking. However, they are not spending any money on conventional advertising.
    4 Nov 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I think that's probably a better way to described their relentless promotion.
    4 Nov 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    JRP3,
    I never said that there is no market for early adopters or high end products, but when you combine the two you have reduced the percentage of consumers able and willing to buy. That is part of why I think there is an unsustainable niche of consumers. It is one thing to make a decision to buy a new high grade computer for $1500. and another whole different thing to pay $80-100,000 for transportation to go from point A to point B.

     

    I admit to being thrifty (I have been called cheap, amongst other things ;-). I buy last years latest and greatest computer for a significant discount and expect it to work for the next five years. As for autos, I buy a three year old used vehicle with few options and about 40,000 miles on it and keep it for about the same amount of time as the computer. Most of the people I know do the same (To qualify my statements, I learned from my parents, they lived through the Great Depression).
    4 Nov 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    In the end, big picture, this is all just silly. When one looks at the resources spent on trying to nurture this industry, public and private, discussing 10k vehicles vs 20k vehicles is like arguing over who hit first after jumping out of an aircraft without parachutes. Both outcomes are fatal.

     

    But alas that's EV big picture and this is about St. Elon.
    4 Nov 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    of Palo Alto
    4 Nov 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Alas, His star shines so bright it's hard to image any confusion.

     

    Yet another task to steer the flock. Don't know why he's holding back. Why not LA to NYC?

     

    http://bit.ly/RIb7Hl

     

    At least when Mr. Gates dreams it's at a grand scale but it just seems so much more down to earth and pragmatic (useful?). Well unless I've missed some of his dreams.
    4 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I just checked and it's 614 km from LA to SF. Making the trip in a half hour would require an average speed of 1,228 kph, 761 mph, or Mach 1, whichever measure you like best.

     

    http://bit.ly/SlHzzC

     

    I can't imagine that anybody between LA and SF would mind ground level sonic booms in the least.
    4 Nov 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "I can't imagine that anybody between LA and SF would mind ground level sonic booms in the least."

     

    Details, details.
    4 Nov 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the Hyperloop is a kind of vacuum tube transportation system ( http://bit.ly/Qfz3Cr and http://bit.ly/SH39Bz ) which has been dreamed for decades.

     

    And of course, I hail Musk the Great for his attempt to implement this kind of system as long as I watch on the sidelines or across the Pacific for margin of safety.
    4 Nov 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    BugEYE, In bow to you. I was going to state the same thing earlier.

     

    Like being in the French "Gerbil run" But functional.
    4 Nov 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    I was astonished at the total lack of clear thinking, was he just tossing out ideas without doing basic research or even thinking about some of the basic rocket and aerodynamic research his own company has done? Was he making fun of the proposed bullet train? I'm trying to give the guy an out, he's not stupid (maybe not as smart as he thinks he is), there must be more than what the article is saying.
    5 Nov 2012, 03:26 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    " I still expect the market to whither as those who desperately want EVs get the car of their dreams and find that the having is far less desirable than the wanting."

     

    What you keep missing is the fact that people who don't give a crap about EV's are buying the Model S because it's simply a better driving experience. People love this car, period.
    5 Nov 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed,
    I'm the same way, but that doesn't mean I can ignore the vast market for upscale products. Again, our behavior has no bearing on the market that Tesla is targeting, the same market that thousands of other companies target successfully. Additionally you have to add in the large number of Model S purchasers who have never bought anything in that price range but were inspired to do so specifically for this product.
    5 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    There are no sonic booms in a vacuum.
    5 Nov 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    High speed vacuum tube trains are quite possible.
    5 Nov 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    In Q3 there were 2,900 new reservations. 950 reservation cancellations as a bout a third of reservation holders came to their senses and 250 deliveries. I don't see long lines of normal people in front of the Tesla showrooms. They stop, look and move on to something practical.
    5 Nov 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >jrp3 ... There is a very distinct difference between "Possible" & "Practical". As a theoretical construct vacuum tube transport is possible. Then there is that trade-off between cost & need.
    On the "cost" side;
    What is the cost of pulling a vacuum measured in cubic miles?
    There is no ambient temperature superconductor material presently & superconductor wire requires LN2 & trains would need vast amounts over long distance. At what cost?

     

    Is there really any great "Need" for 6k mph transit?
    Would such a system displace enough existing systems to make it economical or just add another energy consuming choice?

     

    I'd need to see a lot more justification before I'd say build it because it can be built and might (or not) work. Personally, I'd rather see the money spent on research for light speed propulsion for space travel.
    5 Nov 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    As a child I could often be found at the counter of the local Grants watching the transactions being sent through the vacuum lines. Well for the first couple visits anyway.

     

    It was there or the turtle tank. :)

     

    http://bit.ly/Uu1qgc
    5 Nov 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I agree that the practicality and need for vacuum tube transport may not be there, but I'm not sure light speed space travel research is a more practical application of resources since there is no need for such.
    6 Nov 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >jrp3 ... There may be more need for light speed propulsion than you think

     

    http://bit.ly/UcUJii

     

    Certainly more easily justified.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    I'm liking today's low volume; may be signaling a bottom.

     

    Other times we've closed at 27 cents?

     

    12/28/11 volume was 1.3M
    10/01/12 volume was 543.2K
    Today, so far, we're at 13.5K

     

    That's not very much selling pressure, again, so far today. If the volume remains abnormally low today, we may have reached the bottom of the fifth Elliott wave. Typically, the end of a fifth wave is WITH low volume.

     

    From a technical standpoint, I'm seeing today's volume as good news, not bad.

     

    All we need is something from "News" Castle, and we'll have seen the end of these five star buying prices. Can't wait for the Q3 report, that will have NSC's order now on the books. What else will we see, hear?
    1 Nov 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Maya: on my experimental stuff the three short-term inflection point indicators strongly suggested a turn up might be coming. But it's all too new to have faith in yet.

     

    They mesh with your prior suggestion, I guess, about ending the fifth down wave.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    HTL: And a long term triple bottom, to boot.

     

    I don't expect any sharp turn upwards if we are correct. Maybe a slight drift higher. Only some significant news will drive share price significantly higher.

     

    Last year we had the Power Cube announcement toppling any share price increase by both Quercus and Special Situations liquidating.

     

    This year, who is going to hold back the price...if we get some news in the form of orders? Only three months away from BMW potentially announcing fleet testing. Perhaps, only one month away from NSC announcing (if they do disclose) a buy for over the road testing.

     

    As I texted to my family and pals who own Axion, Hurricane Sandy was terrible for millions, but just might be fantastic for Axion share holders.

     

    Perhaps we'll get another significant November announcement.
    1 Nov 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    I like TB's thought about watching Rosewater in the Sandy aftermath. Folks that can afford a HUB ought to be having a lot of interest about now for a "100% solution" that includes storage, generator (or their fav "green" w/backup conventional generator), ...

     

    And I don't expect they have the need to be too patient either.

     

    Was glad to hear your got off so lightly and were able to assist some of the less fortunate in your area.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    "All we need is something from "News" Castle,...."

     

    Here here.

     

    TG's not exactly keeping the ticker tape salesman busy. Must be having a grog with NDA Vani.

     

    http://bit.ly/UlfzfR

     

    OMG, A 0.28 lure. 8-b

     

    PS I still think the seller is out cleaning the yard.
    1 Nov 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Anybody know anything about this conference in Detroit?

     

    http://bit.ly/QX4Xoi
    http://bit.ly/Q99WoW
    Axion is not listed as one of the exhibitors.

     

    THE ANNUAL ADVANCED BATTERY TRADE SHOW FOR THE GLOBAL BATTERY INDUSTRY.
    Taking place November 13-15, 2012, Novi, Detroit, Michigan, The Battery Show 2012 is the premier showcase of the latest advanced battery technology. The exhibition hall offers a platform to launch new products, make new contacts and maintain existing relationships. With more qualified buyers and decision makers than any other event in North America, The Battery Show 2012 is the key to unlocking your future business opportunities.

     

    The Battery Show is attended by technical leaders, scientists, engineers, project leaders, buyers and senior executives concerned with advanced energy storage and will host the very latest advanced battery solutions for electric & hybrid vehicles, utility & renewable energy support, portable electronics, medical technology, military and telecommunications.

     

    Per the schedule there are a few things I would like to see. Others can add their own color.

     

    PANEL SESSION: MICRO HYBRIDS: DEVELOPMENTS AND LIKELY IMPACT - w Dr Paul Cheeseman; Vice President - Global Research, Development and Engineering – Exide Technologies
    and Dr Boris Monahov; Program Manager – ALABC (Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium)

     

    and just becuase:
    PRESENTATION: LITHIUM BATTERIES, U.S. FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION AND NATIONAL FIRE
    PROTECTION RESEARCH FOUNDATION: WHAT DO THEY HAVE IN COMMON?
    The US Federal Aviation Administration Technical Center is planning to purchase 30,000 lithium-ion cells and 30,000
    lithium-metal cells and subject “bulk” quantities of these cells to numerous flammability tests. Coincidentally, the National Fire Protection Research Foundation is planning to purchase 20,000 lithium-ion cells and a pallet of lithiumion
    power tool batteries and subject them to fire tests in order to better understand their flammability characterization
    in storage. The results of these tests may have significant regulatory implications for manufacturers of lithium cells,
    batteries, portable products, and automobiles as well as retailers and distributors of lithium cells and batteries. George
    will explore the potential impact of these testing activities.

     

    Also supposed to be a panel on EV, PHEV with people from Ford and Totota any maybe GM. I have some vacation days I need to burn by year-end. I may make the drive and pay the $1k to check it out.
    1 Nov 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty, please do!
    1 Nov 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    If you do check it out MrHolty, we'll try to wring every possible factoid out of you upon your return, or before. You'll need another vacation to rest up so you can go back to work. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    The conference in Detroit is about the time of Axion's quarterly report. It would be nice to see some joint announcement during the time of the conference.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    I figure a $1k investment plus hotels at the conference may be worth it. Just have to clear it with the wifey which will be much harder than clearing it with the boss. Based on my investment here I'll call it "research and itemize it in my annual loss statement for tax purposes.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    You should have come to Paris because it's a far more pleasant city than Detroit. Heck, the wife might have volunteered to come along and keep you company on that trip.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Next time, John. Next time. When I worked in the airline industry the majority of the time I was stationed in the NY area. When I upset the wife, I'd tell her to meet me @ the airport on Friday night after work. She'd arrive with a backpack and her passport and we'd standby for a flight. We had the pleasure of flying out on Friday night arriving Saturday morning in Europe spend the day in whatever city, get a hotel and fly home Sunday morning landing on back in states and home by 3:00 Sunday afternoon with enough time to do laundy, get groceries and be ready for work on Monday. It was a good life for a couple without kids. Flying standby meant offpeak times but we were able to go to GVA, London, BRU, AMS, FRA, DUS, HAM, MXP, and Barcelona. We never got to Paris or Rome.

     

    We have two boys 3 and 1, the wife is 6 months pregnant and we've had issues before. She's not going more than 100 miles away from her doc so Paris was out. I have a good friend in Livonia, MI whose wife is on the city council who approved the A123 project. Seeing them would make the 8 hour drive each way worth it.
    1 Nov 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >mrholty ... These days you & your wife would run the risk of being profiled as terrorists behaving like that at an airport.
    1 Nov 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    Nice. I grew up an airline brat and still have passes to this day.
    1 Nov 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Oh, I'm probably flagged. When I proposed to my wife we went to Germany and she thought we were going for a weekend, little did she know we were staying two extra days (had approval from her boss). The German immigration audit didn't like that she told him first we were returning a few days earlier. Spent 15 minutes in a private room on that one. Also had trouble in Toronto with a US CBP agent.

     

    Better was when for my friends bachelor party 4 of us met up. I flew him in from Wisconsin, one from Detroit and one friend took the train up from Philly. We knew we were going to the carribean for 3 days. We told him we were going skiing so he packed winter clothes and checked his skiis. I knew the station manager where my friend checked in and escorted him through security and didn't let him see the final location on his skis. I had his ticket for him and we had to wait in St. Maarten for his skis and boots on the baggage carousel. Everyone had a good laugh and Immigration in the US thought it was great.

     

    Best was sheer stupidity. Just out of college a good friend from HS marries a girl that I set him up with. I dated her previously and after we broke up he wanted to meet her. I was best man and was invited to her parents house the morning after for brunch, open gifts, etc. Father of the bride grabs me and we go outside. We open up all their luggage dump two shovels full of sand in their suitcases. Then he goes and grabs a white bag of powdered sugar, wrapps it inside a coffee tin to make it look like cocaine. Didn't know it at the time but drug sniffing dogs are also taught to sniff for coffee as its used to mask drugs. Hawaii has drug dogs and dogs smelling for animals and plants brought in so grooms bags gets checked as a drug dog was around when it was being unloaded from the belly. His bag doesn't come out on the carousel and he goes to file a missing bag claim. Once he is done it is brought out with Hawaiian State Trooper who rips him as he knows its not real drugs but its a waste of their time, etc. He of course knew nothing about it. Felt bad for that one.
    1 Nov 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    I'll have to remember the father of the bride's trick in case my daughter weds somebody I don't like. Additionally, I would make their honeymoon destination Turkey.
    1 Nov 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    Lol, that's hilarious.
    1 Nov 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I worked for an airline for 3 years, then took a job at a non-profit. During the interview, they asked if I'd ever worked for a non-profit before. I said "yeah, I've been at an airline for 3 years"
    2 Nov 2012, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    jpau, Many of us as old enough to remember when they still consistently made money. Yep, besides SW Air.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    TWA, PAA et al.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    >Iindelco, isn't that a bit like saying many of us are old enough to remember $0.249 a gallon for regular? I was outraged when the price shot up to $0.30.
    2 Nov 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    At a young age, and in CA of all places, I used to pump it during price wars at ~$0.15xx/gal. Normally was ~$0.18xx. Circa ~1962?

     

    We made our money on mechanical work, "full service" at the islands, etc.

     

    The appropriate nomenclature back then was "service station".

     

    Context: a few years later in Phoenix AZ a "decent" hourly wage was $4.10 for those of us who were young, poor and just starting our work life.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking that number might have been $2.60 an hour when I graduated high school in '69. Anybody out there with better recall?

     

    I just checked. It was $1.60 an hour in '69.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/PLmvXQ

     

    Four and change was more like early '90s.
    2 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    John, The days before the upper hand moved to the other side of the cash register. When supporting sales with service was still in vogue at the pump.

     

    Oops. I'm late relaying my memories. HTL made the points first.
    2 Nov 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    John: I hadn't got into computer stuff yet, so I'm pretty sure my recall is good on the pay rate. Mid-to-late '60s? "Decent" was an understatement though because I do recall how all of us talked about how we might get hired on.

     

    Somewhere around that time I was working at Kaiser Aerospace as a machinist making bulkheads for the F-111(?) swing-wing bomber and, IIRC, was making somewhere around that IIRC. Can't remember exactly.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Just out of curiosity, when was the last time you saw the phrase "The customer is always right."
    2 Nov 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    John, And REALLY mean it? I'm sure it still exists but it's not very prevalent. It's become more scarce along with common courtesies. In fact they are probably pretty tied to one another.
    2 Nov 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Can't remember!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "Somewhere around that time I was working at Kaiser Aerospace as a machinist making bulkheads for the F-111(?) swing-wing bomber ...."

     

    'Back in the day' defense contractors and large project contractors paid premium wages to attract good personnel because the jobs did not last, unemployment compensation was quite low to nil, and people saved those premium earnings to tide them over till the next job could be found.

     

    Post-WWII, my Father ventured to suggest that a man earning $20 day have a GOOD job and income.
    2 Nov 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: On the jobs, yeah. I remember quitting with abandon whenever someone ticked me off because I knew another job was easy to get.

     

    That seems to have changed over the decades.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Before I met my wife Rachel, she agreed to devote about a third of her time to a former client of mine in the oil well firefighting business. They really needed adult supervision to bring EEOC litigation under control. When she took the gig, she made a point of showing the CEO and executive staff that the nameplate on her office door was attached with Velcro.

     

    It was almost as much fun as the day I made a presentation to a particularly arrogant fund manager. Instead of leaving our materials, I reached over his desk and took my business card back.
    2 Nov 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    I didn't look at the numbers - just the trends on my charts. Visually it does seem a repeat as we came off some peaks around ... 7/6 (e.g. in 1000s 393, 316, 1257, 613, 90, 296, 454, 709). 10-day average at the start was 170K, and climbed to end at 430K 7/17.

     

    7/31-814 had, in 1000s, 119, 180, 472, 257, 165, 115, 236, 99, 354, 184, 445. 10-day average at the start was 339K and ended at 251K.

     

    I won't mention the recent "peak" volume and subsequent stuff as it's recent enough for memory to serve folks. But 10-day average volume peaked 10/5 at 481K and ended yesterday at 317K. Today looks to end somewhere below 250K if no volume comes in.

     

    I could be wrong, but down looks down from here.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT added "recent".
    2 Nov 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how this got here - it was supposed to be reply to John's assertion that we aren't seeing a repeat.

     

    My apologies.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    I remember during my few years at GM in the late 80's being in a business meeting the first and only time with a higher level GM exec. at the first Toyota plant in Georgetown KY. The GM exec. took the only business card he had, which was crumpled up in his pocket, and tossed it over to the highest level T Exec. The T Exec. took it and placed it neatly with the others and bowed slightly. I remember thinking to myself "You should be a little more respectful. That guys team is kicking your ass. Pay attention.".
    2 Nov 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    It was a dollar an hour in '67 in Wisconsin. Remembering shuffling snow for older folks for 0.95 an hour.

     

    Gas was 0.15/gallon in '69; free glasses with fill up. My Pontiac LeMans was getting less than 8 miles a gallon.
    2 Nov 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    When I first went to work in the 1960's, $100 a week was considered a good job.

     

    After 1982 you needed $100 a day just to pay the rent.

     

    By the end of the 1990's if I wasn't making $100 an hour, I preferred being on the beach.
    4 Nov 2012, 03:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    ITOCHU and InSpec ally to offer services to build rechargeable battery production plants in North America; Japanese battery manufacturing equipment

     

    "Demand for secondary (rechargeable) batteries in the North American market is expected to continue to grow, not only for use in hybrid and electric vehicles, but also for stationary power sources including housing, large facilities of various industries and grid scale storage applications."

     

    http://bit.ly/QX5qqz
    1 Nov 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Have they missed the memo about the $1.5 billion of effectively empty lithium-ion battery plants that have already been built in the US?

     

    If I had several billion dollars and was told I only had five years to live, I might consider jumping into the lithium-ion battery business. It wouldn't change my expiration date, but it would make every year seem like a decade.
    1 Nov 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    John, I could only smile.

     

    And I like your plan for added perceived longevity.

     

    BTW, Great article. "Electric Cars Suffer in Epic Faceplant"
    1 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Finally, a reason that Li batteries are sooooo expensive.

     

    I am sure the lawsuit will make EV practical and cheap. JP, you should have told us!

     

    http://bit.ly/QX6P0i
    1 Nov 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    It looks like they forgot the most critical allegations – collusion with big oil to withhold massive technological advances from the market. (sarcasm intended)
    1 Nov 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I think the Chinese missed the memo. BYD is struggling and CBAK just did a 1 for 5 reverse split. Of course (Thanks Maya) they are small players compared to some of the others there.
    1 Nov 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    I liked the use of faceplant. Oh yeah, I liked the article too :)
    1 Nov 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    It was a discrete tribute to you thotdoc. You're the only guy I know who studies why we keep doing the same things expecting different results, but that's exactly what the EV industry has been doing for a century.
    2 Nov 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I just paid a visit to the A123 message board on Brand X and you'd be amazed at the optimism.

     

    It reminds me of a favorite story about the father of a six-year old boy who couldn't see a downside in anything. For his son's birthday Dad bought a load of well-rotted manure and had it dumped in the driveway with a big bow on top. The next morning the Dad is awakened by his son's delighted squealing as he digs frantically in the pile. When Dad asks his son the reason for his joy the boy replies,

     

    "there has to be a pony in there somewhere."
    1 Nov 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    The Brand x board is really a mess now. You can no longer post links to articles which I think is one of the primary purposes of such a forum (Thanks Maya).
    1 Nov 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Without at least a credible threat of moderation, public message boards rapidly become worse than sewers.
    1 Nov 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Tp13ma

     

    I know this will not affect AXPW shot at automotive OEM's, but does anyone think this could be a better battery for Stationary and rail ?

     

    A friend of mine from California tried to get involved and was told "we don't need any funding".
    I believe he said Buffet was involved (I know that is no guarantee of success-BYD ! ) wish we could get a Buffet type benefactor/manufacturer, and maybe we will.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Sadoway's liquid metal battery is intriguing, but it's an energy battery rather than a power battery. That means it's greatest utility is applications like load shifting where you want to move several hours of electricity from the middle of the night to the middle of the day, or from solar peak at noon to demand peak at 5 pm. The chemistry and architecture aren't suitable for things that move.

     

    The PbC is all about power and rapid cycling, so it's highly unlikely that the two devices will ever compete against each other.

     

    The investors in Sadoway's first $15 million financing round included Khosla Ventures, Bill Gates and the French oil company Total.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    JR, ;)) Yes, Axion better just fold on the rail and stationary apps. And they have funding as well.

     

    http://bit.ly/RVhiNs
    1 Nov 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Ambri (Liquid Metal's new name) has a decent shot at stationary applications, especially large scale (not residential or small commercial). They are very deeply funded, as JP mentioned. They realistically expect a delivered product sub $100/kwh with very long life and full discharges.

     

    The technology is not appropriate for mobile applications, including railroads. Moving molten metals around is dicey.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    JR,
    Wow, 700oC! I'd hate to see that on a railroad engine that wrecked. It might work for stationary, like GE's new batteries, but I wouldn't want it moving anywhere. Just my opinion.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The MES-DEA Zebra battery (which was cloned by GE and branded Durathon) has a long history of successful use in electric cars and buses. Their total fleet in Europe is about 3,000 vehicles with a combined total of well over 150 million km. The cells in the Zebra are about 1" x 1" x 10," and are rated at about 100 wh. Each cell sits in a stainless steel case and by the time they're assembled into complete packs, they're pretty hard to damage. Readers always worry about the 300º C operating temperature, but the packs are well enough insulated that they feel cool to the touch.
    1 Nov 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... The outcome of this liquid metal battery in a railroad accident would be better than that of an engine & tender operating on LNG.
    1 Nov 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    A nice 7% rally at the end of the day.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    And to test the resolve of sellers I threw a 5K AON bid @ .278 into the mix about 3:40 when reported offer was $.28. Sellers chose not to come to me and the bid did not execute.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Thanks. Good data point.
    1 Nov 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    So not competition, unless say, at a very large energy storage facility for an industrial complex etc Thanks for info

     

    Hopefully we will find out if we can snag Toyota/Kia or whomever our proposed strategic partner could be, by year end ?
    1 Nov 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Johhny rambo ... The 2 battery types could be complimentary with in an installation. Axion's PbC could be used as a protective buffering capacitor in a large energy storage facility.
    1 Nov 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    >DRich ... Just waiting for the day. I see the PbC high speed cache or in the communications world a ring buffer (okay the old communications world)...
    1 Nov 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if you guys have already covered this important info.

     

    New Castle area only hit lightly by Sandy:

     

    http://bit.ly/PpMpPj

     

    I haven't called the company---hope they got thru it well enough.

     

    Looks like NS' Altoona Works did well enough, as their facebook feed shows that work continues:

     

    http://on.fb.me/zL5FXS
    1 Nov 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    Here is a write-up that just warms the cockles of my heart.

     

    http://bit.ly/Q9OP63

     

    We, the people, own the basis of what was once and future the greatest rail transport system in the world. The railroads walked away from passenger rail and a few people with vision have just barely managed to keep it alive for the past 60 years. It should be becoming evident that it will need to be resurrected. For all those that think government should be run like a business ... well, here's a business begging to be run. It could spawn thousands of businesses and keep taxes lower for centuries.
    1 Nov 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "Here is a write-up that just warms the cockles of my heart.

     

    http://bit.ly/Q9OP63"

     

    Here is a report suggesting labor shortages could boost demand for railroad freight transport. http://aol.it/SAsiOg-grid7|main5|dl28|sec1...
    1 Nov 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Tinyurl will not create a substitute link so I've padded some blank spaces for SA

     

    http: / job.aol.com /articles/2012/10/31/e... html
    1 Nov 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "We, the people, own the basis of what was once ... the greatest rail transport system in the world."

     

    Will remember my first passenger train ride and its steam locomotive as long as I live.
    1 Nov 2012, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Me, too. I've only ridden on a steam loco once in my life that wasn't a tourist railroad. In 1957, my dad and I rode for 8 hours with 2 stops from NYC PennCentral to Portand, Maine. It was also the first time I'd ever seen a moose.
    1 Nov 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Nothing so exciting for me - someplace to Ft. Ord CA. when I was about 5 or 6 years old. IIRC, managed to fall out of the top bunk and hit my head on the edge of something. Great pain.

     

    Only saw stars.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    :-) My first train ride was mid-'40s between Odessa and Ft.Worth, Texas. No wildlife as exciting as a moose, only cattle and a few buffalo. First moose (and Alaskan Brown bear) was observed after my first airline flight aboard a Douglas DC - 6.
    1 Nov 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    talking about trains, lets hope that the ride to 1,00 has left yesterday :)
    2 Nov 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Axion-nl: maybe I should change my "grind up" phrase to "long, slow chug up".

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    The little engine that could, "I think I can, I think I can ..."
    2 Nov 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    11/1/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from my instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 21, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 64550, AvTrSz: 3074
    Min. Pr: 0.2650, Max Pr: 0.2900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2798
    # Buys, Shares: 15 45250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2824
    # Sells, Shares: 5 9300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2699
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2775
    Buy:Sell 4.87:1 (70.1% “buys”), DlyShts 13900 (21.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 149.46%

     

    Pretty good day, but let's not get over-excited as we had no volume.

     

    Short sales continue it's usual convergence of the peaks and valleys and I'm thinking today will continue with a percentage-up move to somewhere in the 3x% area.

     

    Now I feel more certain we are essentially duplicating price behavior seen heading into the August quarterly report period. I think continuation of the revenues improvement is expected and if it appears a short-term bump is likely. It'll be interesting to see if it lasts longer this time. I think any positive surprise – sales or partnerships, ... - will have substantially greater impact this time around.

     

    Buy:sell percentage averages have a sustained positive divergence going on now (think of a MACD). I expect we'll stabilize in the positive area until the profit-takers show themselves in strength. Which reminds me, I wanted to mention the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff, which I usually avoid in the concentrator.

     

    John had suggested some time back that we were exhausting big sellers, but with the blunt instruments available depth of exhaustion and actual exhaustion period were uncertain. Sometime later, I conceived the theory that larger sellers would be more likely to hit the bid and the ratio of shorts (which are closely linked to sell orders IMO) to “sells” might be useful. I believe this is borne out now and supports John's contention. Here's an abbreviated snippet from my instablog.

     

    ======================...
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

     

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

     

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

     

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

     

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    ======================...

     

    Note the trend up and then down in the percentages – both maximums and averages. If I could figure a way to associate buys with shorts sales going forward there may be some utility there as well. Maybe just present both percentages. I'll have to think on it.

     

    My new experimental inflection point calculations (all three versions) began giving early indication of a price move up somewhere around 10/23-10/24. If we'd had volume today, I be all giddy. But without volume, I'm still suspicious. I do have more confidence in the later two versions as additional factors are included and there's more to go yet, I think.

     

    On the traditional TA front, ignoring volume as it's been mentioned already, all the oscillators are curling upwards, although none are in bullish stance yet. A follow-though in continued price appreciation with increased volume would go a long way to confirming Maya's suggestion that the triple-bottom was in.

     

    The rest of the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Looks like volume is so low and bid/ask seems stable, we might have arrived at an impasse. Wish we could test it with a little good news.
    2 Nov 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    DRich: looking at volumes leading to the Aug reporting, now it's absolutely "history repeating" AFAICT. If we get much volume before then I will be surprised.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, I don't think we've seen this history before. In August the 5-day average volume bottomed out at 174,300.

     

    The 5-day volume was 185,020 after yesterday's close and even if we have a big surge this afternoon a 5-day average in the 150,000 to 160,000 range looks likely by today's close.

     

    From July 2012 through last week, we had a straight ascending support line along the minimum points on the 10-day volume graph. That line was obliterated yesterday.

     

    I'm at 99% certainty that the mud at the bottom of the willing sellers barrel is cracking and traditional TA will have little or no utility in the month of November. From here on out it's all about supply and demand and the stock may move sharply with or without a reason.

     

    Please make sure your seat belts are fastened and keep your head and arms inside the car while the ride is in motion.
    2 Nov 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    "Please make sure your seat belts are fastened"

     

    Until the report is out, that's just to keep from falling over as we doze off. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    "Until the report is out, that's just to keep from falling over as we doze off. :-))"

     

    HTL, lol. Are we there yet?
    2 Nov 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    >HTL, the next week or so could be very quiet. It could also be less than quiet. Unfortunately my crystal ball doesn't work so good in the very short term or the very long term and is most reliable for middle timeframes.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    .27 I think I can??, .28 I think I can?, .29 I think I can, .30 I think I can!, .31 I think I can!!, .32 I think I can!!!
    .33 I know I can!, .34 I know I can!!, .35 I know I can!!!
    2 Nov 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    John: I'm slightly biased by the believe you've espoused for so long that the big sellers were near exhaustion. I believe it and it seems to be confirmed by the percent of sells that are short posted in today's summary above.

     

    If that is true: 1) no big volumes offered at stupid prices will 2) leave the bottom feeders that may not yet be sated going hungry and 3) let those who've said "no mas" until sales remain comfortably ensconced in their in the waiting mode.

     

    If those suppositions are anywhere near on-target, volume should remain low at least until a day or two before the report, when some folks suddenly experience the feeling potential large "upside risk" and make rapid decisions to buy.

     

    That should appear as price pressure up even if volume doesn't rocket.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    In all my prior experiences, my attention to inflection points was ex-post-facto. I found myself asking "WTF just happened?" Then I had to try and make sense of history without data to support the theory. The one feature they all shared was no discernible reason for the runs. They were never connected to news or any other identifiable event. They just happened.

     

    I see an immense difference between big public companies that are amenable to mathematical modeling and small ones that are basically human systems. I can't buy the theory of a slow grind up because I can't point to an identifiable class of holders and say "people who meet these criteria are likely to sell their shares as soon as the price moves a few pennies."

     

    When we had the big uglies as sellers it was easy to identify where the supply was and would be coming from. When the big uglies hit zero and you can't identify a consistent and reliable source of supply, you don't have a factual basis to expect a slow grind.

     

    Micro-caps don't behave like bigger companies. You have to expect the unexpected that will leave you asking "WTF just happened?"
    2 Nov 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Do keep in mind I was *hoping* for a slow grind, not expecting one, except very early on ISTR expecting one before I got slapped by the clue bat.

     

    If we get a rocket shot, I'll be leery as hell.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I would rather see a slow grind with lots of trading along the way, but if my feel for the stockholder base is anywhere near accurate, I don't see many willing sellers and that suggests a lumpier ride than I'd prefer.
    2 Nov 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    I prefer liquidity which we currently do not have in this price range. Anyone wishing to buy or sell is making the market.
    2 Nov 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    John

     

    Not like you to express such short term emotional optimism...I understand your logic, but 99%?
    Just trying be wary of that darn timing issue.

     

    Having said that, I hope your timing is spot on!
    2 Nov 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I still think I know exactly what's going on and we're well inside my margin of error for the zero point.
    2 Nov 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    JP
    Everything crossed! 8-)
    2 Nov 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Just remember that with a starting point in the 55 million share range ±1% is still a half million shares of slop.
    2 Nov 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Maybe if Mr. 100K decides to hit the ask a little. But I'm afraid we've all been taught patience. So the bottom feeder waits patiently.....

     

    http://bit.ly/Mwi6UL
    2 Nov 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Happy to feed you Audrey ... but you'll have to pay my target price.
    2 Nov 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "If we get a rocket shot, I'll be leery as hell."

     

    Hmmmm. Time to table that $1.50 GTC offer on, say, 10% of holding?
    2 Nov 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Some might at that price afford a swanky litter but might come up a bit short on the nubile bearers. Better to set the bar a bit higher at $2.50.

     

    I could then afford that Twizzy which was mentioned earlier and possibly a suitable garage in which to park it. My wife still loves her 125cc Honda motorcycle with stop/start.
    2 Nov 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: I can't say. But when we had that run up to the $1.2x(??) some time back (mar '11), I made two or three profitable trades. All I recall clearly is telling Maya at the time it was going to come back up and I didn't know why, But I bought bunch at one of the intermedate low areas and, IIRC exited before the big drop, somewhere near to the second push up, $1.1x?

     

    I understand more now and think I know why I felt it would come back. It was a visceral response to the visual pattern we see now as "double pipes" and near-term "reversion to the mean" behavior.

     

    That's stuck in my mind as an example of just how volatile stuff can get when we get "rocket shots". I was lucky then and don't want to have to rely on luck, which I believe was mostly responsible for that particular success, again.

     

    The downside of it is I did miss a good portion of many good upside moves in other stocks because that was fresh in my mind. Hopefully my TA skills and understanding of how folks might behave (through introspection mostly?) in those situations have improved such that I can catch a little more upside more often without too much additional risk.

     

    From my last foray with (TSLA) put options though I did learn that I have absolutely *no* understanding of how the EVangilical mind is working. Had to eat my losses on that one.

     

    As to your $1.50, it's as good a number as any if one is trying to balance risk and reward.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Isn't that what Mr. Granville said about a year ago?
    3 Nov 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    just want to add that for me big sellers lost in early oct (the battle for control of share price). of course i am less trusting of inflection calcs as predictors of price than i am buyer/seller exhaustion. price is a secondary effect.

     

    looking at the multiple tops and dojos, the buyers don't know what value to give to axpw. that read seems totally on point when i watch people lower their bottom fishing bid after less than 1 cent moves in stock price. it also explains why buyers are waiting on more info from the source.

     

    if you are considering a purchase, i think the question has to be: "what are my downside risks versus the upside risks." buy dependent on your answer to that.
    6 Nov 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Aqueous electrolytes good. :) Sooooo we wait.............

     

    Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.
    Jean-Jacques Rousseau

     

    Hard to reach the first million - lessons from eCarTec Munich, 2012

     

    "Contrary to popular understanding, supercapacitors (ultracapacitors) are replacing lithium-ion batteries across some vehicle fuel cells and even in the new MAN Lion hybrid urban bus, which is truly world class, and has no traction battery - just a supercapacitor. The supercapacitor has much longer life and better power handling than a lithium-ion battery but there is no agreement concerning when they are better overall. Indeed, in one presentation, Hutchinson, a subsidiary of TOTAL, the French energy giant, calculated that, if the acetonitrile in one large supercapacitor leaked in the volume of a garage, it could kill. TOTAL Hutchinson is therefore joining the rapidly increasing minority of supercapacitor manufacturers that use aqueous electrolytes instead. Based on tests, it was previously concluded that acetonitrile is carcinogenic, flammable, sometimes creating poisonous cyanide-related gases and also creating birth defects. This is an industry that is not always as environmental as people presume."

     

    http://bit.ly/YdOkbW
    2 Nov 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    Are we really only at 5.79K for the day? I know the day's not very old yet, but that seems just... glacial.
    2 Nov 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Take heart - we just bumped to 32,785 on 2 10K trades. Burning up the track now.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Low volume from Sandy? Doesn't seem like a stretch.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Nah, we're up to 59k and change. All heck is breaking loose.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Yep. 14 trades now with an average size, thanks to the 10K trades, of 4,228.

     

    I was a lot smaller.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Dear automakers, Please take note of this as you contemplate selling SS systems in the US with your crap flooded and VRLA batteries.

     

    Hyundai, Kia to pay 900,000 owners for overstating mileage on window stickers

     

    http://yhoo.it/SCl7oy
    2 Nov 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "Dear automakers, Please take note of this as you contemplate selling SS systems in the US with your crap flooded and VRLA batteries."

     

    Wow! Thanks, ii.
    2 Nov 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Look at the percentage of generation curtailed. When you start out with the efficiency you have nameplate vs generation and then add this in. Ugh, Ouch,. Pow, Bang (A little Batman cartoon theatrics).

     

    Well that's like pooping in the commons from what I'm told! :(

     

    China’s Wind Market: Growing, But Challenged by Grid Realities

     

    http://bit.ly/X748OT
    2 Nov 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely. The UK isn't getting 25% from their windfarms, and they are an island in a windy location with loads of off-shore facilities. They just announced they aren't supporting anymore on-shore wind farms...

     

    And its only a matter of time before they quit subsidizing off-shore wind power.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW), (NSC): "Engineering leader Drake retires at Norfolk Southern; Wheeler and Evans named to key operations positions"

     

    Let's hope this doesn't lose the impetus pushing for electrification!

     

    http://prn.to/SCrEzz

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    While we wait for any NS announcements, here's a nice page on the 999 on their website:

     

    http://bit.ly/UpIXBy
    2 Nov 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The NS 999 and OTR programs are under the direct supervision of Gerhard Thelen, VP of Operations Planning, so it seems unlikely that the retirement of their VP of Engineering would have a huge impact.
    3 Nov 2012, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Interesting battery article. Lockheed Martin is involved.

     

    http://bit.ly/SFGAho

     

    New Silicon-Based Batteries Outperform Current Batteries: 'Crushed' Porous Silicon Anodes Show Dramatic Increase in Charge-Discharge Cycles
    ScienceDaily (Nov. 1, 2012)
    Researchers at Rice University have refined silicon-based lithium-ion technology by literally crushing their previous work to make a high-capacity, long-lived and low-cost anode material with serious commercial potential for rechargeable lithium batteries.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    "The next step will be to test this porous silicon powder as an anode in a full battery," Biswal said. "Our preliminary results with cobalt oxide as the cathode appear very promising, and there are new cathode materials that we'd like to investigate."

     

    Translation – it may be a product in a decade.
    3 Nov 2012, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for your insight, John!
    3 Nov 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • alasmaci
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    An interesting article from Rome by a business reporter for a Canadian newspaper.

     

    How the e-car revolution ran out of juice

     

    http://bit.ly/TAXFch
    3 Nov 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Who could have predicted that unforeseeable outcome?
    3 Nov 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I wrote a comment this morning in response to an encouraging word from a reader who said, "ps, i'd also like to hear some good news on AXPW sometiime soon."

     

    After posting my response, it struck me as an important enough point that I decided to share it with the Axionistas while I decide whether there's an article in the idea.

     

    My response said:

     

    "Good news on a company like Axion is a funny thing because the definition changes over time. We started with a science fair project in late 2003. There has been nothing but good news ever since. It developed an electrode design that worked. It figured out how to automate the manufacturing process. It put manufactured pre-commercial prototypes in the hands of the most demanding customers in the world who spent millions of their own dollars torturing them for a period of three years. It not only survived the torture testing but it demonstrated performance traits that are 10x to 20x better than competitive products. We had no idea where the PbC would be useful when we started the process, today Axion has identified a couple billion dollar niches where the PbC offers best in class performance.

     

    In 2003, the odds of failure were in the 95% range. Today they're almost zero. Axion still faces a world of challenges in terms of ramping production to relevant scale, reducing manufacturing costs, improving quality and competing in the market, but it's shaping up as a market where demand for storage will grow far faster than capacity to make storage products. Axion has already won the big battles. The market just doesn't recognize that reality. People are waiting for a commercial contract as a definitive sign of victory. In my view that's a lot like waiting for the leader to complete the last quarter mile of the New York Marathon."

     

    We're all anxiously waiting for Axion to cross the finish line with a fat contract, but there are times when I think we overlook the accomplishments and outright misery along the way. It may be time to take a look at some memorable photographs from real marathons to remember what it takes.

     

    http://bit.ly/R1FGtd
    3 Nov 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    John: I believe that with those bullet-points fleshed out there's an excellent article in there - not only on Axion but on what several other potential players may have to look forward to, and some representative time-frame estimates.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Nov 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I agree with HTL, that it deserves an article. Use the Pike and Lux data about energy storage demand PROJECTIONS and include big players like XIDE and JCI in the discussion and you may even get an article about Axion's amazing story published here on SA.

     

    =====================

     

    On a separate note, Con Ed has promised that my home should have power back by the end of next weekend.

     

    I'm really thanking my luck that I was able to buy the last generator at Sam's Club last year during the October snowpocalypse. Just not much enjoying the lines at the gas station to keep it fueled.

     

    Had to postpone a motorcycling trip to Australia so I could stay home to keep the pellet stove and fridges operating for wife and kids.
    3 Nov 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Capstone Microturbines Power Through Hurricane Sandy

     

    "CHATSWORTH, Calif., Nov. 2, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Capstone Turbine Corporation (http://bit.ly/Ts2ikx) (Nasdaq:CPST), the world's leading clean technology manufacturer of microturbine energy systems, announced today that its microturbine systems continued to operate during and after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the eastern seaboard this week."

     

    The full article is a good read. Capstone's micro turbines work and have many interesting applications/benefits.
    TimZ
    3 Nov 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7603) | Send Message
     
    "I'm really thanking my luck that I was able to buy the last generator at Sam's Club last year during the October snowpocalypse. Just not much enjoying the lines at the gas station to keep it fueled. "

     

    I think propane might be a better choice. No fuel to go bad over time and pre filled BBQ tanks can be had even if electricity is down and gas stations can't pump gas, or a larger storage tank on site for longer run times without changing tanks. NG is a possibility but then you are dependent on the main pumping station being powered up.
    4 Nov 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Propane would seem to have its advantages for a permanent generator installation, but those set ups run $20k or more and require local permitting. It's not exactly an emergency solution. However, the propane trucks have not been able to make deliveries in our area recently due to the disaster of the roads. FEMA finally got around to declaring Westchester and Rockland counties official disaster areas on Friday, freeing up the busybodies and politicians to come in and interfere.

     

    My town of New Castle ( not to be confused with the city in PA we watch here) was called the "worst case scenario" yesterday by local officials, since 175 of the 500 downed trees and power lines blocking roads in Westchester were in New Castle alone.
    http://bit.ly/UsWesW

     

    "New Castle Police Lt. Dan Cannon reported that—as of this evening—of the 5,196 households whose power was knocked out when the super-storm hit, 1,455 have been restored. "

     

    My next door neighbors have a propane-fueled permanent generator for their house. I have always been envious that their power comes right back on after an outage while the rest of the neighborhood is dark. Well, this week they are dark and had to leave home when their tank ran out, and those of us with little portable gasoline generators are still at home.

     

    A little barbecue tank is not going to power a 2kw in ground generator for more than an hour or two, and the supply of propane in the local stations is no more reliable than gasoline when this sort of disaster strikes.
    4 Nov 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rather, a 20kw permanent generator. That is generally the starting range. My little gas unit is rated for 4kw, but to run a house at least 20kw is recommended.
    4 Nov 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    The big advantage to a propane generator is that the fuel does not age. One can keep a 500 lb tank of propane for a decade or more, and it will still work fine in the generator. Gasoline, especially when adulterated with ethanol, decomposes and evaporates over time. Ten year old gasoline is almost useless for running a engine (great for arson, though).

     

    A portable 100 lb propane tank holds about 23 gallons, and probably would run a small generator 48 hours, or eight days if running six hours a day. They could have gone out to get a refill. Or get a bunch of BBQ tanks, and refill the big tank. A BBQ (20 lbs) tank would last about 10 hours run time.

     

    All depends on load, capacity, etc. http://bit.ly/Xbwc3C
    4 Nov 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message