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  • Good morning everyone!
    4 Nov 2012, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • Daylights Savings Time Gold
    4 Nov 2012, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • I hate daylight savings the spring. This extra hour in the fall is pretty handy though. :)
    4 Nov 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Good EST morning JVeal!


    11/2/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 121685, AvTrSz: 5531
    Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2814
    # Buys, Shares: 11 38370, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2834
    # Sells, Shares: 11 83315, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2804
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.17 (31.5% “buys”), DlyShts 33240 (27.32%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.90%


    Daily short sales continue the expected behavior of rising, especially on low volume, towards “normal” and is now above the averages of 21.90%, 23.45%, 25.20% and 25.62%. These don't imply larger absolute numbers because the volume has been so low recently. If volume remains low, the short sales percentage should at least remain in this area. With shares backing prior sell orders flowing to the market-makers being so few recently I wouldn't be surprised to see daily short sales continue to climb, percentage-wise, especially if any volume on stronger prices appears. I'm not expecting much of that ATM.


    Although price action doesn't look “hale and hearty” ATM, consider it in light of recent volumes and price (low, high and VWAP) the prior three days: 0.2651 0.2905 0.2807; 0.2700 0.2800 0.2723; 0.2650 0.2900 0.2798. We're hanging in there.


    Buy:sell is flopping around the averages, today on the low side of the average percentages: 53%, 52%, 51% and 54%.


    Average trade size is still recovering from the recent depths: 4291, 6372, 3074. Size is trying to claw it's way back to the averages of 5900, 6317, 6314 and 6537.


    On the traditional TA front, everything is “status quo”: consolidation pattern denoted by reducing volumes, narrow price spread, oscillators mostly in neutral areas with disagreement in their direction of movement.


    My new experimental inflection point calculations are collecting right around the zero-line, except for the 100-day which hasn't started to trend down yet. But if volume remains low and price stays steady the next five days or so it should start to drop as some much larger volumes and higher prices will be “falling out”. None, from the shortest five-day to the longest, are suggesting lower prices, in aggregate. I say “in aggregate” because AFAICT they seem to “predict” most reliably when they act “in concert”, except on the original version when the five-day often would lead and then go contrary. This behavior is not seen on the two newer versions.


    As a reminder, we don't know the value or reliability of these yet and I mention them only because they have been showing some promise and there may be folks that want to visit my instablog and assess for themselves.


    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.


    4 Nov 2012, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • A question for any and all,


    Does anybody know if Northfolk Southern bench tested the advance lead acid batteries in the original NS 999 prototype and if they did how long did they bench test them for? I am just wondering that if they did bench test them why they did not discover that they would not work since they supposedly put them through a very rigorous testing process.


    I apologize in advance if this is already been discussed prior.


    4 Nov 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • The grant funding for the NS 999 came in Fiscal Years 2007 through 2009, and the NS 999 was unveiled in September 2009. While I'm confident that NS did some bench testing of the AGM batteries while they were building the locomotive, they apparently didn't have a good understanding of what the instantaneous charging loads from recuperative braking would be. The data that they gathered during the initial testing of the locomotive formed the basis for the test protocols they used the second time around.


    The bottom line is it took less than three years to design, build and launch the original, and they spent two and a half years testing the PbC before ordering the batteries for Gen 2.
    5 Nov 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • John,


    Thanks for your response, I do appreciate it.


    You sure are a great resource, I feel like calling you Google!


    5 Nov 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • The NS Sustainability Report published yesterday adds some clarity to the timeline. On page 16 it says "Five years ago, Norfolk Southern began development of a battery-powered locomotive ... Two years into the effort, in fall 2009, we unveiled NS 999, a prototype electric four-axle switcher locomotive ..."


    Based on that I'd say they took two years for the original design, test and build, and then spent three more years putting every battery they could find through the tortures of the damned based on hard data developed during the original failure.
    7 Nov 2012, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • I was disappointed to see that NSC doesn't plan to introduce the new NS 999 until 2013. However, I was encouraged to see that they were developing the 6 axle road locomotive "concurrently" with the 4 axle.


    The fewer number of batteries, 864 vs 1080, could explain the recent work on the NS 999. They would most likely have to change the racks that hold the batteries as well as the electrical controls.


    For those who figured the cost of the batteries, would the fewer number of batteries lead to a higher price per battery?
    7 Nov 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • "disappointed to see that NSC doesn't plan to introduce the new NS 999 until 2013"


    Its only 2 months away...
    7 Nov 2012, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • "Its only 2 months away... "


    Or 14 months.
    7 Nov 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • >jveal ... I'm glad to see this Norfolk Southern (NCS) 2012 Sustainability Report. It puts quite a few of my irrational fears away but it doesn't bode well for Axion. I've always been of a mind that rails will lead Axion sales (still not absolutely sure rails will be Customer No. 1) and this report says Axion has at least one more year that will look a whole lot like this past year. It now puts my figuring of Axion breaking out toward a profitable future into being a 2015-2016 event. Not bad because the business is OK but will need to keep the doors open with something other than sales. The company is not broken ... the stock is ... and I don't know if the time horizon will warrant a stock recovery to anything like "fair value".
    7 Nov 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • I think that NS having a couple locomotives in testing will be a far better situation for Axion than waiting for orders that seem to take forever to materialize. Once the locomotives exist, it's a different world. I also remain hopeful because of the increasing urgency as time passes before the effectiveness of the new EPA rules, but I'm certain that they won't go too far too fast without adequate testing.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... I agree that having prototypes locomotives out in the open and under test is a good thing. Also, if BMW fields a test fleet and Rosewater can make a small number of sales then Axion should look better to the market. All this shows good progress for the business activity and future prospects. I don't see it having a great impact to revenue. Business is good.


    Here, on this forum, the worry is about the share price and I don't believe any of these positive actions will be attractive to the MoMo crowd or garner big market attention, but I would hope that it is enough to heal the stock value which for many here on this forum would be a bonanza. Next up is to see if a "strategic investor" shows or we go through the hell of selling cheap shares to people with short horizons. It would be nice to see Axion get to the point of getting off the OTCBB and on to an exchange. It would be even better if they could do that during or just prior to a ramp.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • I learned on the ZBB call yesterday that "strategic investor" can have a very wide, diverse definition. Now that could very well be because they don't have one yet and they need them too, but we may ultimately be surprised by how many strategic investor/partners we end up with in the stationary storage market.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • The Enersys CC yesterday was fascinating, particularly when it comes to their view of the stationary market. FWIW, their strategy is similar in many respects to ZBBs when it comes to building battery agnostic controls.

    7 Nov 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like


    Don't remember ever seeing this article ...
    4 Nov 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting read, Stefan. Thanks.


    I had not before seen anything like "Under favorable conditions, the AGM can be allowed to drop to as low as 20% state of charge (SOC) from repeated stop-starts."


    And, it was rather disappointing to read about specific ambient temperature performance limitations for AGM batteries and then to see nothing but banal, broad claims attributed to Axion's carbon-lead battery. To me, the article's characterization of PowerGenix's nickel-zinc battery came across as much more specific and prospective than Axion's.
    4 Nov 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • I discussed PowerGenix with one of the top NiMH battery guys in the world at Batteries 2012. He told me that PowerGenix wasn't getting any traction with automakers on their nickel-zinc concept, which is one of the reasons the CEO decided to go into the solar business and the stationary business was dumped into an alliance with Enersys. The bottom line is that Axion has successfully completed three years of OEM torture testing while PowerGenix hasn't even started the process.
    5 Nov 2012, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • Pretty interesting article on lightsail. I like the line from Thiel that says, "it is time to find real honest companies that can stand on real innovation and not on the backs of taxpayers."


    Also, this company was turned down by the DOE for a grant as well and now look who they have investing in them.

    5 Nov 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • but why?


    why should corporate success depend on a good business plan?


    why shouldn't banks take crazy risks from which they either wildly profit and wildly lose & get bailed out by taxpayers?


    why should insurance companies actually have to insure people against claims when bad things happen; why shouldn't they just sell a promise of insurance from which they profit as long as nothing happens and then ask for government assistance when an insurable event occurs?


    why should corporations risk innovation without taxpayer backing?


    why should homeowners be responsible for taking out loans they couldn't afford to pay back?


    why shouldn't we all be bailed out by this anonymous "taxpayer" fellow? he seems to have deep enough pockets to go around


    oh wait... is that us?
    5 Nov 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • MDB Capital Group initiated coverage on ZBB and released this report.



    Maybe talking their own book though since MDB was also the group that assisted with their secondary.
    5 Nov 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • ZBB is way down this morning, not sure why but its in advance of reporting later today. Anyone adding?
    5 Nov 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Another lackluster quarter from ZBB - about even sequentially with last quarter if I recall correctly.



    Still waiting to see the beginning of the ramp in advanced storage/grid sales forecasted by Pike and friends. The only big volume sale that I currently recall is the telecom G/E Durathon sale.


    At one point, ZBB was making a play for this market with Likusasa, but haven't heard about this market other than references in power points in quite awhile.
    5 Nov 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Out of curiosity, I was curious about Pike's electric car forecasts/predictions and I came across this blog on their latest report.



    Any thoughts about what their predictions with electric cars means about their other forecasts/predictions?
    6 Nov 2012, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • OT: FCEL, AXPW and the Valley of Death.


    FCEL has followed and is following JP's 'Valley of Death' model, and is now emerging with the series of orders from Korea and Germany that are allowing it to become profitable.


    FCELs stock price projection over the past year also suggests that AXPW will not simply sky-rocket, even if the do everything correctly. For instance, in the past year or so, FCE developed back log of over $120MM, stopped relying on the sale of stock to the public for financing and sold stock to a strategic partner for $1.50/ share. The stock promptly fell to 86 cents in the next month or so, IIRC.


    I post it here because you can follow the company and its stock as it mirrors the JP's model, and fuel cells are considered batteries; that definition may be new to some. I'm sure that most or all are aware of the company, but may not follow it.


    If I understand the nature of their production of electricity, they are an alternative/competitor to batteries, as has been seen in the replacement of batteries by fuel cells in pallet lifts. But, it seems that fuel cells in combination with AXPWs batteries are a winning combination.


    I trust someone can fill out what I don't understand if this post sparks interest.
    5 Nov 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • FCEL is clearly in the valley of death after trading in the $40s during 2000 and 2001, but it's a bit early to conclude that it's emerging from the valley. Since I don't follow FCEL I can't say whether they're in an analogous supply and demand position, but I'd be inclined to bet that they're not because the stock has traded quite actively for many years.
    5 Nov 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Thatdoc, fuel cells are NOT batteries. Fuel cells, like internal combustion engines and gas turbines, are energy converters.


    A fuel cell takes chemical energy, typically from hydrogen gas, and converts that into electricity. An ICE takes chemical energy, typically from a fossil fuel (but can run on pure hydrogen), and converts to rotational mechanical energy. Attached to a generator, it produces electricity. Likewise, a gas turbine takes chemical energy and converts it to electricity via rotational mechanical energy. An electric motor converts electricity to rotational mechanical energy.


    All these devices require a fuel tank. The least expensive fuel tank is typically for liquid chemical fuels, such as gasoline or diesel. Much more expensive, a high pressure tank is used for hydrogen or natural gas. By far the most expensive "fuel tank" is a battery.


    The huge physics problem for most fuel cell application is the very expensive, very inefficient tanks needed to store hydrogen.


    FCEL gets the hydrogen needed from reforming natural gas or other hydrocarbons. "Reforming" natural gas (CH4) separates the hydrogen and wastes the energy content of the carbon. They claim up to 47% electrical efficiency, however from my (very brief) reading I think they are using the post-reformed hydrogen energy content, not the pre-reformed.


    For comparison, new combined cycle gas turbines are 60-62% efficient.


    There may be some specific niches for fuel cells, but they will be very limited.
    5 Nov 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • I've seen fuel cells referred to as a battery in technical papers. Certainly whoever wrote that could be wrong. But read George Wand. "Fuel Cells History, part 1". Johnson Matthey plc. Retrieved 2012-09-23


    OTOH, you seem to have many ideas that are inconsistent with other facts. For instance, fuel cells do not always require hydrogen in expensive tanks. They make energy from paint over spray, onion off gasses, methane off gasses, coal off gasses, etc. Let's not even get into using water, etc. I think you should keep up with the field.


    Further, when you combine the electricity along with the heat produced by the process energy production is typically between 85-90% efficient. see "Types of Fuel Cells". Department of Energy EERE website, accessed August 4, 2011
    6 Nov 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc, I think you misunderstand what a fuel cell is. ALL fuel cells use the chemical energy of hydrogen to make electricity. If you can find a reference to a non-hydrogen fuel cell, please send it to me.


    What does vary is the source of the hydrogen. All the items you mentioned are sources of hydrogen. Another source of hydrogen is methanol.


    There are many combinations of electrolytes and electrodes. see


    All fuel cells emit low grade heat, as do coal thermal engines, ICEs, gas turbines, and nuclear power. If one can use the low grade heat for CHP, all these technologies are 80-90% efficient. Fuel cell promoters claiming there is something special about fuel cells is just hokum.


    As I have said many times, fuel cells may have some interesting, limited niches. I have never seen any authoritative explanation how fuel cells could be a significant, main-stream converter of energy to electricity. I'd love to see a specific link.


    BTW, the George Wand link that you (and others) point out goes to description of the 1839 invention. Not exactly "up to date".
    6 Nov 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rick-
    I believe this blog is about education, not prevailing.Your approach and words are about prevailing. For instance, with a statement like "Fuel cell promoters claiming there is something special about fuel cells is just hokum," what are you trying to instigate? I'm not biting.


    Certainly, the Korean government thinks that fuel cells are not hokum or a niche and that fuel cells are one future of distributed energy. POSCO just gave FCE a contract for $181,000,000.00 to begin to build out a fuel cell based distributed energy system in Korea.


    Have a good evening.
    6 Nov 2012, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc, I am sorry if you thought I was trying to "prevail". My statement "Fuel cell promoters claiming there is something special about fuel cells is just hokum," was referring to the special-ness of fuel cell efficiencies with CHP (low grade heat) compared to most other technologies.


    Rereading my sentence I can see how it may have been understood as everything about fuel cells was hokum. I have always said there may be niches for fuel cells. My objection to much fuel cell promotion is the comparison of fuel cell CHP efficiencies to the non-CHP efficiencies of other technologies.


    May I have a link for Korean fuel cell system?
    7 Nov 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • I have to agree with Rick in this discussion. The reason that I see for the high temperature, molten salt fuel cells (they don't need platinum catalyst) being competitive with small gas turbo-generators is mostly green/political considerations. The fuel cell industry has managed to get themselves declared as "renewable resource" users even though a large percentage of the H2 they "burn" comes from natural gas, methane. They do look really good in demonstration projects burning anaerobic digester gas because they have the uber-green Fuel Cell label. If you use the large amount of waste heat to warm up the digester you can claim high efficiency numbers.


    FCEL appears to survive on government incentive and dedicated "green energy" money from states that havn't figured out what is going on. Or that have other political agendas.
    South Korea is just confused about the technology advantages, in my view. Or they are after international, political Green points.


    My thoughts are that micro-turbogenerators are substantially cheaper, per Watt capacity, and meet 90+% of the goals of conversion efficiency and low pollution that the high temp fuel cells claim. There is a niche market for the high temp fuel cells but it isn't large enough to build an industry around. I sure wouldn't invest money hoping for big gains.


    8 Nov 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Continental article SS.


    Double-layer capacitor powers start-stop system

    5 Nov 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe the motorcycle SS market. Hotel loads?


    Bosch to focus on bike servicing


    "Bosch is also developing technologies that can be successfully put on commuter bikes. It has developed a feature called twist to start where a biker will just pull the throttle and the bike will start automatically. This is ideal for quick starts at signals and helps save fuel as well. Bosch’s internal results have shown a remarkable improvement over the usual kick-start stop. All in all, good stuff if you own a commuter bike."

    5 Nov 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • "dual layer capacitor maintain their power even under very low temperatures. ...... The Power Net concept combines the high power density of a dual layer capacitor with the high energy density of a battery."


    Could this be a potential solution to the "airport" dilemma without needing a second battery?
    5 Nov 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • No, In this case the battery/ultracap combination functions like a battery/PbC combination. The battery in both cases satisfies the airport test requirement. In the first case the ultracap delivers good charge acceptance but generally does not satisfy some of the longer duration hotel load opportunities. That's where the PbC shines as it also has better energy storage capability. The PbC can deliver more opportunity for longer duration energy harvesting such as coasting down a long grade. It also allows for longer duration engine off events like at the Mickey D's drive through where people can't seem to get out of their vehicles.
    5 Nov 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Supercapacitors also have very fast self discharge rates, which is a major problem if you park a car for an extended period of time. The supercapacitor will drain very quickly, unless it's continually fed by the battery, in which case the entire system will drain very quickly.
    5 Nov 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • John, Do you happen to know if the current carbon electrode line is set-up for some level of variation in X x Y plate dimensions? I know it will handle different stack thicknesses as would be required for 12 VDC vs 16 VDC but am unsure of what level of flexibility they might have for the other two dimensions.


    Wondering based on my motorcycle thoughts (future opportunities). Not necessarily super critical for higher level production but for development.
    5 Nov 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Axion had made electrode assemblies for a number of different case sizes including the big 30HT for NS and a more svelte European L5 for BMW, so there must be dimensional X-Y flexibility.


    The different plate stack thicknesses are actually part of the battery plant rather than the electrode plant and shifting to stacks that are thinner to accommodate eight cells in a case instead of six cells is no big deal.
    5 Nov 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks.


    Plate stacker on slide 24 in this Piper Jaffray presentation.

    5 Nov 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • " "


    It is a real shame that presentation is labeled/named ACPW batteries on
    5 Nov 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, Twas hard to find.
    5 Nov 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Volume of 196.3 k looks much better today.


    However 90K of it came in one trade @ .272


    More traders on the East Coast able to get into work?


    MAXM is back leading the offers down: 5K @ .275
    Next ATDF 10K@.2799, then ETRF 27.5K@.29
    5 Nov 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: there a good chance that 90K trade was 100K. That was the bid and I saw it cleaned out in the 90K plus a 10K.


    Just a possibility.


    5 Nov 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • From WSJ article "Outages Highlight Worries on Phone Networks"



    In the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Federal Communications Commission tried to require backup batteries at all cellphone towers, but wireless carriers successfully sued to block the rule, arguing that they needed flexibility in how they provided backup power at their facilities and that installing batteries at every site would be prohibitively expensive.


    Last year, the FCC started a new, formal process to explore rules to foster better reliability of new telecom networks.


    "In the United States, we have no federal rules on backup power, and we have to ask whether that situation is acceptable," Chairman Julius Genachowski said at the time.


    Since Hurricane Sandy hit early last week, FCC officials have declined to comment publicly on policy matters, saying they have to focus on the immediate crisis first.
    5 Nov 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Air transport of dangerous lithium ion batteries investigated

    5 Nov 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Just wondering if there has been any research into how Li-ion batteries react when exposed to x-rays? All these spontaneous combustions at airports makes me wonder if the ignition isn't caused by some sort of chemical cascade that is started by the battery being x-rayed? I don't have any proof of this being an issue, but it does make one wonder. IMHO
    5 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Haven't seen anything concerning battery packs being x-rayed. I mostly thought these incidents were from harsh handling/poor packaging. But I've also wondered about the possibility of venting in the case where batteries are in flight in an unpressurized cargo hold.


    Guess I gotta look around some.


    PS If I was an Apple investor there would be some concern here. Since they integrate the battery into all of their products this could cause significant problems for them. Can't just ship them separately.
    5 Nov 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds as if these were poorly constructed and defective.
    6 Nov 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • If they only knew. Someday.


    6 Series Gran Coupe defines BMW going forward


    "In the case of the 640i Gran Coupe, a suite of technologies, applied in a holistic approach for improved fuel economy, has been dubbed “Efficient Dynamics.” Most notable in this approach is the application of an auto stop-start function. As the name suggests, this feature shuts off the engine while idling. When you take your foot off the brake or apply any movement to the steering wheel, the engine starts up in anticipation of your impending acceleration. The start-up is lightning-quick; the task is completed in the time required to take your foot off the brake and put it on the accelerator.


    So how is it able to keep starting like that without draining the battery? Regenerative braking is how. Energy captured from applying the brakes, or even coasting, is stored in a battery pack. Once the battery is fully charged, the generator is de-coupled from the engine, removing cannibalistic energy loss."

    5 Nov 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • I had kind of hoped that the 640i Gran Coupe would be the first BMW with a PbC, but that was primarily related to my wife's promise that I could get the first production car with a PbC, no matter what it cost.
    5 Nov 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • That makes both yourself and Mrholty looking to get higher end rides like a BMW out of a PbC automotive launch. Starting to look like a TSLA pre-order book!


    I was starting to dream about the motorcycle thing today. Been a long time since I had the pleasure of getting road rash scrubbed with a Scotch Bright pad. Ooh la la.


    The 640i was a good guess volume wise perhaps. Little early though. Maybe a BMW RR. Then you'll really want to see 10 USD! ;)
    5 Nov 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • hmmmm, if the 640i Gran Coupe actually did have an Axion PbC, I'm thinking that would have brought you a great deal more reward than your wife was promising.


    Which begs the question: Does the fact that it does not suggest to you that maybe BMW has moved on from the PbC? That the technology and the timing won't come together?


    Or have you decided you'd rather have a Kia?
    5 Nov 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • John, I'm hoping that the 750Li is the first BMW with PbC. I bought a used '06 760Li about a year ago (my friends accused me of having a mid-life crisis, even though I convinced myself the V-12 is somehow practical) and I've been in love ever since.... just not with the fuel economy.... ouch!
    5 Nov 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • >Edmund, I have to believe that it costs an automaker a couple hundred thousand dollars a year to carry on a complete battery evaluation program and at least a couple hundred thousand more to have their in-house results confirmed by a third-party institute. So it wouldn't surprise me a bit to learn that BMW invested well over a million dollars in testing the PbC. When you're laying out that kind of money your goal is to kill the unqualified as quickly as possible, and pare away programs that aren't going anywhere.


    Since the testing results on the PbC are, in a word, spectacular, and nobody has been talking about how BMW is actively testing their technology as an alternative I think there's no real chance that BMW has moved on because we'd have heard something.


    While a new Toyota wouldn't please me as much, it would still tickle me pink.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • So today TSLA $32.00 AXPW .27c


    How in the Sam Hill can this continue?
    TSLA as we would all agree, is the current A-Rod comparable to baseball salaries and AXPW is the AAA Pawtucket farm team, in it's entirety, valued at a tenth of the one underperforming, grossly overvalued star player.
    Can't wait for some role reversal, even though as some of you will correctly point out "life just isn't fair sometimes"
    5 Nov 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • You dropped a digit Johnny. Axion is trading at less than 1/100th of Tesla.
    5 Nov 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • I've just spent a little time trying to locate earlier APC discussions of Q2 revenues with specific interest in estimates of PbC sales revenue. Saw one reference in APC139 to $660 PbC sales throughout the years, but didn't find what I was looking for re-Q2 PbC sales.


    Can anyone point me in the right direction?
    5 Nov 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • I use principal customer disclosures in Axion's SEC reports to calculate a revenue breakdown between the flooded battery contract, which is always a disclosed percentage of revenue, and PbC and other which is a balancing entry.


    For Q1, the flooded contract generated ±$1,388,027 and PbC and others generated ±$422,535.


    For Q2, the flooded contract generated ±$2,091,415 and PbC and others generated ±$660,447.


    Since others may be interested, I've uploaded a copy of my Axion Ramp spreadsheet to my Dropbox:

    5 Nov 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John!


    That'll be handy-dandy going forward.


    5 Nov 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, JP!
    5 Nov 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • John -


    Is there anyway to breakout a rough guesstimate of what the Other in "PbC and Other" is? My guess is that the Other is probably relatively stable from quarter to quarter and would be some amount under 200-300K. Thereby meaning that the jump in Qtr 1 and Qt2 of '12 would be likely a jump in PbC sales rather than the Other products.


    Also, if memory serve me correctly, the 660K last qtr did not include the NS order.
    5 Nov 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • IIRC specialty battery sales were historically under $200K per quarter but I can't think of any way to get a breakdown on the PbC and other. The NS order had not shipped at the end of Q2 so the sale wouldn't be included in revenue.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Yikes ! 1/100th


    It's enough to make you not want to believe in the tooth fairy anymore !
    5 Nov 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla Q3 report: $50M revenues, $111M GAAP net loss, 253 Model S delivered in Q3

    5 Nov 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    So, of course, the stock was up a couple of bucks today because of the "hope" that they are going to become profitable next quarter with ramped up production. You gotta love stockholders who bid up the stock's value when the company loses over $100 million in a quarter.
    5 Nov 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Through June 30, 2012, Axion's cumulative loss since inception was $80.2 million. So Tesla loses more in a quarter than Axion lost in almost nine years.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • 8.33 years * 12 months = 100 times
    this must justify the 100x price share ;)


    more seriously, when do you think Axion will see the first 1$ profit? Tesla will be there is exactly 5 months (earnings call in 6 months) - ready to bet!
    6 Nov 2012, 03:04 AM Reply Like
  • I wouldn't want to guess when Axion will report its first profit, but I hope it's not for a while. Companies at Axion's stage of development are evaluated based on revenue ramps that typically increase losses in the short term.


    If you look at Tesla over the last couple years, quarterly revenues have bounced around in the $30 to $60 million range while quarterly losses ramped from $30 to $110 million. Through it all the stock price trend has been up.


    Right now the street seems to be waiting for Axion's first credible commercial contract. The NS 999 is still viewed as a potential one off and while progress in automotive is very promising, it's not a done deal. Once real contracts start falling into place, losses will probably increase as Axion expands capacity and marketing, but the street won't care if revenues are ramping faster.


    The most brutal time for any company is when the street starts focusing on earnings expectations instead of revenue expectations. In the glory days of Vancouver, the rule used to be "buy exploration and sell production" because the expectations are highest before the day to day worries about quarterly profit start to weigh heavily.


    MXWL's chart over the last couple years is quite instructive. The price peaked as revenues ramped and quarterly losses declined. Once the company started reporting consistent quarterly profits and providing detailed guidance, they set up a target rich environment for disappointment and the price got brutalized with every hiccup or threat of a hiccup.


    Tesla may well report it's first operating profit six months from now, but by then the market will be obsessing on questions like whether reservation rates will support long-term revenue sustainability. The one-third cancellation rate they experienced in Q3 is not, in my view, an encouraging development. (11,500 starting + 2,900 new - 250 deliveries - 13,200 ending = 950 cancellations)
    6 Nov 2012, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for your answer, we seem to agree on most points but one. I'll follow your advice and take out as much profit as I can from TSLA before they become profitable, hopefully after THE short squeeze.


    I'm afraid you apply the rational economical agent theory for consumer markets because it works so well for utilities and business. Model S meme will spread like fire because it is finally a car one can lust for completely guilt free (justified or not, that's another story). For a few years, Tesla will scramble to produce enough of them and it seems St. Elon took a flight on the back of the dragon above the Valley of Death w.r.t. production. If they also hit the magical 25% GM point, they will sail at 130mph for 5 years or so until competition catches up or it turns out that you are right and they hit a scalability wall. In either case, we are living very exciting times!
    6 Nov 2012, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • There won't be a short squeeze because Tesla operates in an environment that offers countless opportunities for disappointment, big and small. What happens if Romney wins today? What happens when the fairy tale nature of EV claims becomes more widely understood? What happens if Tesla runs into a problem like the Fisker fires? Longs are betting on continued perfect execution. The shorts, on the other hand, are betting on Murphy.


    We have very different opinions of what the top end of the car buying public is likely to do, but arguing over opinions is pointless since the sales will either materialize or they won't. I have grave questions about whether Tesla will be able to reach a 5,000 car per quarter sales or production rate and maintain it quarter after quarter after quarter. The bigger unknown is how their battery packs will hold up in the hands of consumers who use the Model S as their daily ride. The last time I checked, the average roadster logged about 15 miles a day. The usage pattern on the Model S will be quite different and so may the user experience.


    The valley of death is a funny place because the mountains on the horizon are much farther than they seem to be from the valley floor. Notwithstanding Elon's boast, Tesla isn't even close to being beyond the valley of death.
    6 Nov 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Average miles logged are meaningless in a car such as the Roadster since some, like many high end vehicles, will rarely be driven. More important are the experiences of those who use them as daily drivers, and so far the older battery technology in the Roadster is holding up quite well. I'll let you project how the newer battery and BMS technology in the Model S will do.
    6 Nov 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know enough to project, which is why I consider it a risk. Tesla's strategy of building very large battery packs that it knows will be lightly used by most customers may work out just fine. The only thing that will provide a basis for projection is sufficient time in the hands of a statistically valid sample of bipedal lab rats who are willing to pay a premium to participate in the grand experiment.
    6 Nov 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • The old Chinese curse (blessing?) "May you live in interesting times."
    6 Nov 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech, They have done pretty well as an independent. That being said, automotive is a great government chess game and efficient destroyer of capital. It's all about jobs!


    TSLA becoming something would be a huge achievement. Thus far all they have accomplished is the destruction of capital thing.
    6 Nov 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu: "Model S meme will spread like fire because it is finally a car one can lust for completely guilt free"


    Is "guilt free" really a market?
    How big is it?


    You assume it's the rule,
    I suspect it's the exception.
    Do you really think 80% of Avg. Joe's care??
    I don't ....
    6 Nov 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Model S is not intended for average Joe. Just for those who have money and feel some guilt in conspicuous consumption (be it of cars or gas). Instead of being looked at like pariah, they get cheers from the ignorant crowd. And they can drive fast with no silly Lamborghini of Ferraris beast cries. Some may even think they do some service to the planet and there is a (small) chance that they actually do.


    But the main thing is, most cars are boring and that for the last 20 years or so. This one is quite new, intriguing and exciting. And Tesla needs less than 1% of the 1% to buy their cars. If there are no serious recalls or accidents, there is nothing stopping them for John's 5 year foreseeable horizon.
    6 Nov 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • " What happens if Romney wins today? "


    Another potential obstacle for Tesla goes by the wayside...
    7 Nov 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3: That's sort of a damning admission isn't it?


    7 Nov 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • JP: "The one-third cancellation rate they experienced in Q3 is not, in my view, an encouraging development. (11,500 starting + 2,900 new - 250 deliveries - 13,200 ending = 950 cancellations)"


    The number of cancellations is probably correct, but you didn't calculate the rate of cancellations properly. You have to divide the number of cancellations by the number of people that were asked to "lock-in" and convert their reservation to a non-refundable deposit.


    Looking over the self-reporting threads on the boards, it looks like at least 6400 reservation numbers were asked to lockin (these are all post "Signature" versions). That's about a 15% rate, maybe 18% if you want to allow for holes in the reservation numbers. So, that's about half the rate you claimed here an in TheStreet.
    7 Nov 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • or a Freudian Slip?
    7 Nov 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    How so? He was openly hostile to Tesla, calling them a "failure" on two different occasions, even though they are an American company creating thousands of new jobs and delivering a ground breaking product, exactly what we want companies to do.
    8 Nov 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • I had in mind the taxpayer subsidies going away. My thought was that you were concerned with the possible lack of subsidies making (TSLA) less viable.


    If that was the case, it's sort of a round-about admission of the unsustainable business model *if* the market doesn't develop as hoped.


    And that would be a "damning admission" for one who supports these sorts of products.


    If those weren't your thoughts, I was way off-base.


    8 Nov 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Not way off base, certainly the loss of tax refund would have some effect, but not all that much for Tesla since the refund is a smaller percentage of purchase price than with other EV's. I do think the car can stand on it's own.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3: There were so many good innovative cars in the past, when times were much better, that couldn't make it. Elon may be very bright, but he's, sooner or later, going to end up battling an additional headwind related to the economy. Even the ubber-rich will be hit at some point with the (apparent?) redistribution of wealth that seems likely from the current political environment and the decline in the economy, weakening of the dollar, ...


    This makes a tougher row to hoe. An early indication may be currnt market action as folks dump stocks to both get the reduced cap-gains for this year and the higher tax-loss benefits from this year. Large companies announced additional layoffs the day after the election - Boeing being the one that comes to mind ATM. I expect many are either planning the same or at least deferring hiring (continuing the trend).


    This can't help the situation.


    If he can navigate all that in addition to the other headwinds, he's got to be even sharper than we already believe him to be, and that's pretty damn sharp.


    9 Nov 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • >Even the ubber-rich will be hit at some point with the (apparent?) redistribution of wealth that seems likely from the current political environment and the decline in the economy, weakening of the dollar


    If you are referring to proposed increased taxes on the rich, they amount to only a rounding error for the uber-rich
    9 Nov 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Whereas those of us who have been working our asses off from Nothing at age 14 and are now 60 and hoping for a comfortable retirement are screwed. Some might say yet again and possibly forever!
    9 Nov 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • headwinds, crisis? what crisis? what headwinds?
    9 Nov 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu: My malware didn't like your link. Gave me a "Whoa, do you really want to go there?" warning.
    9 Nov 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • First advice: get a Mac (friendly advice - you will kick yourself why you have waited so long).


    The title says "Ferrari Announces Record Results for First Nine Months of 2012"


    and somewhere in there "The USA confirmed its position as Ferrari's largest market internationally with 26 per cent of total sales after delivery of 1,354 cars with a growth of 16 per cent."


    compared to 10% growth overall
    9 Nov 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu, Used a Mac for a period and as you suggest it was great for avoiding everything online during the entire tenure. As for their hardware. JUNK. Threw it in the trash. Expensive mistake.


    Just one users first and last experience with a high end laptop.
    9 Nov 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Maya: I just went there on my Linux box w/o problems. But that's no assurance - I use FF and between everything I don't use a lot of protection except on my one Windoze box.


    9 Nov 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • HT,
    I know you may not agree but Tesla is building cars that are far more innovative and game changing than anything else in the past. I don't know how much of an auto enthusiast you are but until you actually drive an EV, especially a Tesla, you can't really understand the difference. When people actually experience the vehicle their whole perception changes, including people who previously had no interest in an EV. No one knew they "needed" a touch screen smart phone until Apple started selling the iPhone. The difference is that unlike an iPhone which costs more to operate than a regular phone, an EV costs less.
    10 Nov 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • I enjoy them - I currently have a '00 'Vette, the latest in a long line of "hot rods" that I tend to keep for long periods because I enjoy them so much. I don't doubt that the vehicle is innovative and I know with the proper motors and energy pack max torque at zero RPM beats the hell out of anything an IC can do. Adding in the better traction control availble with proper electronics and programming and, welll, you know.


    I'd miss the "rumble" of the exhaust, since the visceral reaction to that is not replaceable, but I would enjoy the quite on the long-hauls (assuming ...).


    As to the gadgets, I resent having to be connected all the time now since my wife bought me a cell phone. In a car, all I want is power, handling, a decent ride, A/C, and maybe a radio. Maybe a GPS sometimes, but I learned on maps and atlases and am comfortable with them.


    Other's tastes will be different of course.


    In a nutshell, I have no complaint about the car - having never even looked at one I couldn't rationally have any - but only suspect that with the headwinds it's a very high-risk proposition. I do have concerns which John has elucidated very well over a long time about the raw materils issues and eco-friendliness of it and suspect that if that were widely known, and is true, that there's a certain class of buyers that wouldn't be buyers.


    I'm of the opinion though that if somebody can build it, stay in business and find customers, nothing wrong with folks spending their own money on it. The whole point of generating what wealth we can is to enjoy some luxuries in life.


    As to investments, let's face it - we all acquire stock for either the dividends we anticipate may come some day or to sell to someone else at a higher price, "the greater fool". In these scenarios, (TSLA) offers a high-risk scenario, as do almost all start-ups, and has the added burden, compared to past times, of fighting wealth-destruction occurring (almost) globally ATM. That should not be confused with fiat-currency induced nominal wealth, which is currently and forever reducing purchasing power (i.e real wealth is contracting for most folks) through CB-caused inflation.


    So folks that are investing need more care than might have been needed in some past times. And part of that is the need to be aware of the history of other (potentially) fine cars that didn't make it, even though times were better, and the risk that what John has been highlighting for a long time, financially, materially and ecologically, may become widely understood and accepted as truth.


    This presents an additional risk that must be factored in.


    10 Nov 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • "I'd miss the "rumble" of the exhaust, since the visceral reaction to that is not replaceable"


    You might be surprised. I used to love the sound of a big block, still do to some extent, but the sound connected to the power of an electric motor has it's own visceral reaction when coupled with the physical experience. When you can accelerate with little noise you realize you can disconnect the association between loud engine sounds and speed.


    As for eco friendliness, if you make a rational comparison between the S and a similarly sized, priced, and performance oriented vehicle you'll find it still comes out ahead, and if you make the effort it can be made to come out better than any ICE or hybrid over time. Don't forget the last study John used took the production impacts from an industrial electric motor and inverter, hundreds of pounds heavier than anything used in an EV, so the conclusions are obviously flawed. How much credibility would you give to a study that used the impacts of building a D9 bulldozer diesel and applied it to a passenger car engine?
    Now you could make the argument that no vehicle similar to the S, be it ICE or EV, is sustainable, which may be true in the long term, but that's a separate argument and has little impact on near term investment potential.
    Is the product good, is the product in demand, and does the product provide an experience unlike any other? I'd say all answers are "yes". The big unknown of course is can the company deliver the product and be profitable.
    11 Nov 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tesla Motors' CEO Discusses Q3 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript (Q&A Session)

    5 Nov 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • CPT Says Higher-Tech Stop/Start System Nearing Market


    " SpeedStart can work with multiple types of batteries, including advanced lead-acid or lighter-weight, higher-cost nickel-metal-hydride or lithium-ion.


    “If you’re in the volume markets (where cost is a factor), you may want to stay with commodity battery technology if you can,” Pascoe says. “There’s some good development going on in lead-acid batteries. They still have a lot to offer, and they have a huge cost advantage.”"

    5 Nov 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • "CPT already has demonstrated its 12v low-cost LC Super Hybrid micro-mild hybrid technologies, including the SpeedStart system, a Valeo electric supercharger and new lead-carbon batteries, in a Volkswagen Passat with a 1.4L TFSI gasoline engine."


    Thats cheating! that was a lead-acid battery with carbon in the NAM...
    5 Nov 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, It's a "demonstration" vehicle.


    The individual auto makers will test their own storage units with their own BMS's.


    Don't confuse demonstration with validation. One is a sales piece to show possibilities. The other is a long term process to make sure everything works together for the intended purpose and length of time.
    5 Nov 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • 11/5/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol 413112, AvTrSz: 7944
    Min. Pr: 0.2651, Max Pr: 0.2800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2708
    # Buys, Shares: 25 175175, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2711
    # Sells, Shares: 27 237937, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2706
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.36 (42.4% “buys”), DlyShts 73575 (17.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.92%


    Yesterday I said
    If volume remains low, the short sales percentage should at least remain in this area. With shares backing prior sell orders flowing to the market-makers being so few recently I wouldn't be surprised to see daily short sales continue to climb, percentage-wise, especially if any volume on stronger prices appears. I'm not expecting much of that ATM.
    Both right and wrong. Short sales more-than-doubled from 33.24K, but volume came in well above the averages of 220K, 336K, 350K, and 343K. In spite of that, our behavior is still emulating the lead up to the August quarterly report, IMO. Similar low-volume volatility leading into the report can be seen on the charts.


    I wish I'd seen those “stronger prices” along with the volume though.


    I shouldn't complain – at one point during the day the buy:sell was almost 1:9.


    We got what I believe was a single trade of 100K (went as a block of 90K, $2720, and either a 10K block, $0.2720, or two smaller blocks of 1.2K and 8.8K @ $0.2721). This was a sell. Later had a couple other larger trades, 41.7K at $0.2699 and 50K at $0.27. These were “buys”.


    These represented 46.4% of today's volume. They dragged the average trades size up to above the averages of 5865, 6405, 6371, and 6526.


    I don't know where the sells are coming from: the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” continues in the lower ranges seen since we thought the “big” sellers were becoming exhausted. I'm still suspicious that we're seeing the market-makers being much more active and this might be the cause. Considering the recent (over the last month or so?) increase larger market-makers (NITE, CDEL, e.g.) this may be a major factor. I can't think of other participants that can make money buying and selling frequently at these levels. Since the market markers get fees from the exchange for every trade they make, they can still make money even if the price spread is minimal.


    The price pattern is in a consolidation triangle and the candlestick made a “doji” today. Both of these say a change should be very near. The oscillators are all weaker than they were Friday. But with the volume”spike” today, we might get a move to the upside since we were trending down overall. But the volume”spike” isn't all that large, so I don't know if we can bank on it.


    With the VWAP remaining above $0.27, it is looking like we do have support in that area, suggesting Maya's triple bottom might hold and the foray in to the $0.265x price may have been an overshoot. However, we had more volume in the $0.26xx area then in the other recent excursions into that range.


    My experimental inflection point calculations are showing flat on the two short-term periods, five and ten day, while the twenty-five day has begun to roll over from it's upward bias. The 50-day is trying to join the party forming up around zero. All this suggests we can't make in educated guesses based on what they are doing now. If we had more experience, we might judge they are saying “flat”.


    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.


    5 Nov 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • I forgot to mention in my partial APC post that the buy:sell had improved from Friday's 1:2.17. This might be significant going forward.


    6 Nov 2012, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. Petersen,
    In concentrator 105 I questioned your assertion that engine stops were limited to 60-90 seconds given that PBC could hold up with a longer off cycle. Your reply:


    start quote-----
    I attended ELBC 12 in Istanbul in 2010 and button-holed a couple engineers from Ford and BMW because I wanted to understand how stop-start systems were designed to function if you were stuck on a Houston freeway in August with an accident a mile up the road.


    They explained to me that passenger comfort issues were their biggest design constraint because consumers are willing to save fuel, but they're not willing to sweat or shiver to save fuel. As a result current systems are designed with a variety of cut-outs that avoid engine off if temperatures are too low or too high and restart the engine if stop intervals are too long. They don't want a situation where a driver is stuck in a traffic jam and sits with accessories running for a long enough period that the car won't start. Given the current limits of battery technology, 60 seconds is the most common interval because it's long enough to save fuel in normal traffic and not so long that it might create problems.


    Since I'm one of the keynote speakers for ELBC 13 in September, I plan to update my knowledge at that event.
    end quote----


    Do you have more info on this? Are they looking at longer off events with PBC?
    Thanks in advance
    5 Nov 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Driver comfort and system transparency are still job one. The automakers are all sticking to intervals of about a minute but they want to turn the engine off earlier and more often, which suggests that longer engine off periods are clearly a goal. We won't know the specifics of any plans for the PbC until there are disclosed plans for the PbC. For that, we wait.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • Have you all seen this 2008 Axion presentation? Ed Buiel presenting before the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.
    There's some fun and wild stuff in here, including drawings for an Interstate charging system for electric vehicles. Hard to believe how different Axion's focus was only a little over four years ago.

    5 Nov 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • " "


    Thanks, Laf. Monumental change in corporate thinking and target markets. After viewing that presentation I'm wondering if some of the protracted trek to commercialization is directly related to the company's thrust at that time. Promoting "RBEVs", that is retrofitting existing ICE vehicles instead of manufacturing new vehicles, probably did not endear the company to UAW and other unions or to auto OEMs and their ICE parts suppliers.
    5 Nov 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • In 2008 I would have laughed if you suggested that an automaker was going to take the PbC seriously. We expected a long slow grind up from the bottom of the food chain starting with retrofits and small wind and solar installations. Using the data from the early installations, we expected to slowly work our way up the food chain to larger and more demanding users. The plan in early 2009 was that Axion was going to focus on making the PbC and big brother Exide was going to handle all the marketing details because it had the industry relationships.


    The entire strategy changed in the summer of 2009 when Ed Buiel did a poster presentation at the AABC and several automakers found their way to New Castle. When BMW successfully completed preliminary testing, the 2009 financing became possible. When NS came to the party in the summer of 2010, things really got interesting.


    The track since then has been like the career of a talented high school pitcher who planned to go to community college, a university and eventually take a shot at the pros. In Axion's case, the scouts showed up while the kid was still in high school.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • nice metaphor
    6 Nov 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • It reminds me of my favorite Robert Mitchum quote,"Stick with me kid and you'll be farting through silk."
    6 Nov 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • "In Axion's case, the scouts showed up while the kid was still in high school."


    That makes me want to think that the "scouts" are beating the bushes looking for a solid solution to a sticky S/S problem.


    Or am I lighting the hopium pipe too soon?
    6 Nov 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • I think the scouts have been looking for a stop-start solution since BMW introduced the first stop-start Mini Coopers in late 2007.
    6 Nov 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Q3 financial report is coming up in 10 days +/- 1 or 2.


    In light of the dual bulk purchase of activated carbon at end-May and mid-September I'm guesstimating Q3 sales of ~ $6.5 million on an assumption of 10% Q3/Q2 growth in flooded LAB production.


    Thoughts anyone?
    5 Nov 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • 6.5 million? It sounds too good to be true.
    My calculation of end-May or mid-September is about 4 metric ton import each representing about 1.6 million revenue. And we don't know whether NS 999 order is included in last Q.
    I missed many discussions from concentrator 146 due to endless daily chores. Something great happened during my absence these days?
    5 Nov 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • I'm trying to avoid expectations because the details on the carbon purchases are so fuzzy. I'm looking for sequential growth over Q2 and will be delighted with anything over $3 million. I don't discount the possibility of a larger number, but I don't want to set myself up for disappointment based on my own assumptions.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • 6.5M sounds great but then again I just went to Costco today and I know that it hard to pass up bulk deals. Is it possible Axion was stocking up on a good price for the carbon? I think many here will be happy with 1/2 your number but at least your on record; now lets find someone who's willing to out bid you on the showcase. =)

    6 Nov 2012, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • "My calculation of end-May or mid-September is about 4 metric ton import each representing about 1.6 million revenue."


    At the time the mid-September order was flagged on APC, discussion pointed to a 360-carton order weighing ~20K lbs. or 10 metric ton which would be sufficient carbon to produce somewhere between 12K and 20K batteries. Cost of that high grade activated bio-carbon was thought to fall between $15 and $20 lb when purchased in bulk which would imply an outlay of $300K - $400K for each 360-carton shipment (assuming that quantity qualified as "bulk").


    I don't see Axion tying up its limited capital in inventory it does not expect to ship quickly. Therefore, I think it likely the mid-September delivery of 360 cartons activated bio-carbon signaled need for additional raw materials to fabricate additional electrodes over and above those manufactured from the same sized end-May delivery of carbon. At the low end of estimated electrode fabrication potential from that amount of carbon production of 12K PbC batteries is indicated. Valued at a price implied by NSC's $400K purchase of 1,080 batteries for the NS999, 12K PbC batteries would be worth $4,680K.


    Since Q2 revenues included $660K from PbC and other sales in addition to $2.1 million FLAB toll contract revenue, it seems likely some of the end-May carbon purchase could have been used to produce PbC batteries sold in June. My projected $6.5 million Q3 revenues assumed $2.3 million FLAB sales plus $4.2 million PbC sales.
    6 Nov 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • A few weeks ago I spoke with the business development manager of a Fortune 500 company that's developing carbons for supercapacitors and batteries. He told me that Kurray charges $10,000 to $15,000 per ton for their coconut carbons, or $5 to $7.50 per pound.


    I originally estimated $15 to $20 a pound because some carbons fetch very high prices and I'd rather guess high than guess low when it comes to cost estimates. Now that an informed source has given me a more accurate number, I'm happy to work with it.


    While I'd be thrilled to see even a couple million in PbC sales for Q3, I have a hard time imagining how PbC sales could be that high without a press release or two along the way.
    6 Nov 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • "I was told that Kurray charges $10,000 to $15,000 per ton for their carbons, which would be more like $5 to $7.50 per pound. "


    Thanks for correcting my faulty memory, JP. So instead of $300K-$400K per carbon purchase, we would be looking at $200K-$300K. Still a significant amount for a capital constrained co. to spend if avoidable or deferrable.
    6 Nov 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • It wasn't a question of faulty memory on your part because my original estimate was in the $15 to $20 range. It was just better information coming in over the transom.


    Something in the back of my mind keeps wondering whether the first shipment wasn't a couple tons rather than 10 tons, but I haven't taken the time to run that nagging doubt to ground.
    6 Nov 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv, it seems we differ mainly about how much do 360 cartons of active carbon weigh. From a Chinese consulting website, I found two axion power bills of lading dated in 2010.
    Sorry the page is in Chinese but you can find that there are two lines starting with "ACTIVATED CARBON". The two lines then indicate axion power imported 94/CTN weighing 1079 KG (11.48 kg/ctn) and 72/CTN 822KG (11.42 kg/ctn) activated carbon in the first half of 2010. If the foregoing information is accurate and KURARAY and AXPW stick to that package, all I can infer is 360 cartons weigh a little more than 4 metric tons.
    6 Nov 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • " If the foregoing information is accurate and KURARAY and AXPW stick to that package, all I can infer is 360 cartons weigh a little more than 4 metric tons."


    Weight of the carbon, then, does seem to be in question. Earlier discussions basically worked on the premise that 360 cartons represented a full shipping container and such containers held just under 20K lbs of activated carbon. If 360 cartons only weigh 4 metric tons then the PbC revenue estimate presented earlier were overstated and would recalculate as ~$1.7 million instead of $4.2 million. Implied revenues for all products sold in the quarter would total ~$4 million instead of $6.5 million.
    6 Nov 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • i think TG said the order wasn't included and wouldn't be until the batteries shipped. am i making that up?
    8 Nov 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • The batteries won't show up in Axion's revenue until they've been shipped. I'm hoping that will be a Q3 event, but it might have been pushed into Q4 by the customer.
    8 Nov 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • I'm expecting the NS999 battery order in fall in Q4, JP. The FTA $400K grant for the RR project was announced Sept. 28, last business day of the quarter. Isn't likely that signing that dotting eyes and crossing t s for shipping the order (at minimum) did not occur until the following week or later? Plus the locomotive was moved into the Altoona shop and then back out where it stayed until mid-October or so.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • You could well be right. I guess we'll find out next week.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • John, do you think there will be a press release when BMW starts fleet testing?
    6 Nov 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • It's hard to predict. The automakers prefer a very low profile when it comes to their product testing and development programs. So while Axion would no doubt love to pound the table when BMW starts a fleet test, I suspect that BMW would rather stay quiet and when push comes to shove, happy customers are more important than happy stockholders. While I would expect to hear something, at least in a conference call reference, whether it will rise to the level of a formal press release is anybody's guess.
    6 Nov 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • I'd put my money on NDA for fleet testing. Most often very sensitive.
    6 Nov 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • xide is breaking out...heavy volume already. Results are out next week
    6 Nov 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Just landed some 26.5 cent shares, all 750 of them. My lowest priced shares ever. ;-)


    Looks like they got packaged together with a 2800 volume trade.


    If this means anything, typically when I accumulate many buys of some company, the lowest number of fraidy cat shares I bought, also ties in with a bottom. In other words, it's great news, as the least amount of shares I ever purchased in one trade, typically ends up being the bottom, or very close to it.


    I call it the "fraidy cat" indicator.


    Although, I still have some dry powder over in the brokerage account that I will deploy based on other parameters, and likely at a higher share price from here.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • back to .25 we go, eh?


    ... and I had felt so good about snagging some at .254 last time down...
    6 Nov 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • We could get there, Jon. Seems we are in a period of buyer exhaustion right now.


    Yet, I like my downside risk with the about same amount of dollars it cost to me to throw a small Sunday Night Football Steelers-Giants party two nights ago.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, It's OK to look for bottoms. Just don't make it so obvious. You'll get a good "talkin to" or your face slapped! ;))
    6 Nov 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • My call on Oct. 2 calling the bottom (intraday) on October 1st is still valid. I have a big lure at .26 if anyone wants to get out of AXPW... anyone? anyone?
    6 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • OR, Congratulations.
    6 Nov 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • LOL... didn't take long for someone to grab that lure!
    6 Nov 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • ZBB earnings are out. The press release included the following two milestones achieved "subsequent to the end of the first quarter".


    --"Signed a long-term OEM supply agreement with major vehicle/engine manufacturer for Hybrid electronics."


    --"Received from the major vehicle/engine manufacturer orders of $500k in the first quarter being delivered in the second quarter with an additional $860k of new orders booked in the second quarter."


    The second bullet sounds odd since these orders are listed under a heading of post-Q1 activity.


    Can anyone discuss what this likely involves?
    6 Nov 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • I'm about 99.999% sure it's this:



    CEO talked about this twice in the last year or so in response to my questions asking for color on the Tier Acquisition. I was sad that they couldn't actually put it in writing in this release :-(


    The brochure in the links identifies Emerson (motor) and Maxwell, (supercapacitor) but sadly not ZBB:



    HTL ... did UQM had a shot at that business?
    6 Nov 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: Don't know. They just fairly recently listed their larger horsepower motors (the something-220 IIRC - I'll have to check the instablog for the news to see).


    ISTR that the motor is a candidate for buses and such though.


    6 Nov 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • ZBB initial conference call transcript is up:


    Q&A: (Stefan and I both got through):



    Note the slam of both Lead Acid and Lithium the CEO slipped in :-(


    Whole enchilada:

    6 Nov 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks much. I'm following what folks here have to say about ZBB. I am over my head as a stock-picker but I am bullish on energy storage.


    Clearly the market is inclined to sell after the call but I'm sensing an opportunity. . .
    7 Nov 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • the downside is 26 cents, the upside has no limit ;) Here in the Netherlands i'm doing some PR for Axion... and some of my friends took a stake.
    6 Nov 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • thumbs up to that axion-nl
    6 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Battery not at fault in Hurricane Sandy Fisker fire


    It's that darn LAB trying to get Fisker in trouble.

    6 Nov 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • So basically they are arguing that the fire wasn't caused by a short in the battery but by a short in their control board that wasn't designed to then prevent an overload from the battery. Now that's quality for you. Makes me want to run out and buy one.
    6 Nov 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Well most cars are not designed to be submerged in sea water. The key here is does it happen after some time and was the high voltage isolated. Seems the answer is yes according to the article. It occurred based on some electronics being powered by the 12VDC LAB which is at least better news. Now they have to look at it and "sea" if this could occur over time based on high humidity or normal salt spray.
    6 Nov 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • So much for the concerns over the lithium pack that some insist on drumming up.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
    6 Nov 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Time for Vani Dantam and Rosewater to take a road trip.


    Ontario battery firm signs two MOUs on Harper trade mission

    6 Nov 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Nice to see all the US companies getting business outside of the taxpayer funded trials.


    UPA installs 500 kWh containerized Li-ion system from BYD for grid storage

    6 Nov 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • If You Had A Microgrid, You Wouldn’t Be Waiting For The Power Company

    6 Nov 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • FWIW - New Tom Konrad article on Maxewll Q3 report over at altenergy. com. Some start/stop & wind-turbine talk.
    6 Nov 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • You want to sign up for email notifications on if you want Tom's MXWL stuff on a more timely basis:



    See the "follow" link up near the top of their articles.
    6 Nov 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • WTB - Thanks for the heads-up, didn't realize he recycled the article.
    6 Nov 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • New Norfolk Southern "sustainability" report -
    6 Nov 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Nice D-inv Thanks. Now we know the quantity.


    "In 2013, we plan to reintroduce an upgraded NS 999 with new advanced lead-carbon batteries and an overhauled battery management system that
    addresses technical issues we encountered with the prototype. We believe this rebuilt “next generation” model will provide a foundation for the
    development of economically viable battery-powered locomotives to help reduce emissions and reliance on fossil fuels.
    The overhauled NS 999 will be powered by fewer batteries: 864 of the higher-capacity lead-carbon batteries vs. 1,080 batteries on the prototype. We
    concurrently are developing a next-generation battery-powered six-axle road locomotive based on NS 999 design improvements.
    “The whole difficulty has been how to manage these long battery strings while the batteries charge and discharge with very high current, and we
    absolutely are plowing new ground with this,” said Gerhard Thelen, vice president of operations planning and support. “We think we can make this
    work, giving us fuel savings as well as pollution-free point-source emissions.”"
    6 Nov 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • OK, OK. I'll echo what's been on the board.


    "The king of string!"


    "“The whole difficulty has been how to manage these long battery strings while the batteries charge and discharge with very high current, and we absolutely are plowing new ground with this,” said Gerhard Thelen, vice president of operations planning and support. “We think we can make this work, giving us fuel savings as well as pollution-free point-source emissions.”"
    6 Nov 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • "The whole difficulty has been how to manage these long battery strings".


    If you need a string then you need the king.


    6 Nov 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • They also mention as one of their big initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint:


    "• a comprehensive program to reduce unnecessary locomotive engine idling, including start-stop systems, monitoring for compliance, and employee education" (p.13)


    So they've retrofitted 2,083 locomotives with start/stop - I wonder how the batteries are doing.


    Surely TG and the gang have educated NS about the virtues of the PbC for hotel loads during an idle stop situation.


    Could this not also be a source of sales to NS and other railways?


    6 Nov 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • "The overhauled NS 999 will be powered by fewer batteries: 864 of the higher-capacity lead-carbon batteries vs. 1,080 batteries on the prototype."


    Nice pick up, ii. That strikes me as a substantial reduction in KwH energy stored. And the implied price of the 30HT PbC batteries for $400K just changed to $463 from $390. And, hoped for battery sales volume for NS999 clones dropped.


    "We concurrently are developing a ... battery-powered six-axle locomotive" perhaps opens the door to possibility that NSC was an undisclosed purchaser of PbC batteries in Q2/Q3. And, the six-axle reference confirms that OTR units will be larger (NS999 is four-axle), relying on perhaps 1,300 PbC batteries.
    6 Nov 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Now thats funny! I check the NS sustainability web site every day for what seems like an eturnity and the one day I don't it gets released! nice find D-Inv! and now I have one less chore to do...
    6 Nov 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, That's the way it works. Stand out there all day and just 5 minutes to the bathroom, the whale will jump out of the water the only time all day! :)
    6 Nov 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • With NS saying "the whole difficulty has been how to manage these long battery strings while the batteries charge and discharge with very high current," there are implications that go way beyond the railroad and extend to everybody out there that's trying to manage long string installations for grid connected applications.
    7 Nov 2012, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv: a good read. I'm about 1/2 through it.




    7 Nov 2012, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • So Tim's slogan remains intact for all eternity: (KIAS) "PbC, King In A String", IIRC.


    7 Nov 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: There's another implication? I don't know the energy storage of the 30HT vs. the standard, but I'm thinking there's a possibility that the better DCA and operating range has allowed them to use less total energy capacity?


    A 20% reduction in battery count would suggest a 20% greater capacity in the 30HT. Is this reasonable?


    If not, I think it says they charge the PbCs at a higher rate than what we might have been thinking, allowing for operation in the desired SOC range with more frequent "events".


    Am I all wet here?


    7 Nov 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • JP: I think the task is going to be how to leverage the potential cost advantage from simpler, less-expensive BMSs, and getting the word out (marketing the advantages).


    Greater simplicity usually leads to reduced maintenance cost along with greater reliability and, maybe, expected service live.


    7 Nov 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • " D-Inv: There's another implication? I don't know the energy storage of the 30HT vs. the standard, but I'm thinking there's a possibility that the better DCA and operating range has allowed them to use less total energy capacity?"


    I'm thinking you're on the market. As Thelen commented (and JP quoted above, "the whole difficulty has been how to manage these long battery strings while the batteries charge and discharge with very high current," That reads to me as implying the PbC is capable of absorbing and feeding back to the engines a higher proportion of braking energy. AND, I sure it does not hurt that the PbC has a wider ambient temperature range of high performance than AGMs.
    7 Nov 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • "Greater simplicity usually leads to reduced maintenance cost along with greater reliability and, maybe, expected service live."


    And noting that greater simplicity includes reduced battery environment control sensitivity.
    7 Nov 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • >HTL: was wondering about 30HT and battery count reduction as well.


    But also wondering if we're into version 2.0 (or better?) of the electrodes ... whether they've made a significant performance difference, and also whether that contributed to some of the delays in our expected timelines.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Went to TVM site (BMS) manufacturer and saw where they are doing work with Brookville on their CoGen units. According to
    , the CoGen unit can use battery power as one source of locomotion, but does not mention the type of battery, or if any have been built.


    On youtube company video at about the .41 market, spokesman talks about using battery or capacitors as a power source.



    A brochure for the CoGen unit states:


    "Regenerative Dynamic Braking BEC’s regen braking allows the use of the DB brakes (down to 0.6 mph) to generate energy that is
    recycled for use in auxilary functions like cab heating, fans, air conditioning, lights, radios, refrigerator, and air compressor."


    so there is already a "small" battery for these purposes and being supplied through regenerative braking..

    7 Nov 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • If we use the Rosewater energy site info. the 30HT provides 15.1 Wh/kg over an hour. The Odyssey battery from the former NS999 trial provides 23.7 Wh/kg over an hour. (Many variables to consider so this is not clean (apples to apples) and we are presumably not using the new NS999 for only one hour between charges.)


    Of primary consideration is the industrial engineering study that indicates the variable duty cycle that the NS999 will have to work under. Could be that with the better DCA more energy is recovered during braking and also the charge times can be more efficient in duration. (BTW, This is the reason that the OTR locomotive needs so much study. They are far different animals on the battery, BMS design and the industrial engineering study?)



    Odyssey battery M/N 31-PC2150S specs page 10.

    7 Nov 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • "And the implied price of the 30HT PbC batteries for $400K just changed to $463 from $390."


    Changes projected Q3 revenues as well, assuming only 30HT format PbC batteries are sold.


    360 ctn --> 20K lbs: Total sales - $7.8 million with $2.3 mil toll contract and $5.5 million PbC


    360 ctn --> 8K lbs: Total sales - $4.5 million with $2.3 mil toll contract and $2.2 million PbC
    7 Nov 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Wtb: even if no improvement in the electrodes, recall that we saw a patent issue (application?) for a different grid that had raised and lower channels that provided lower internal resistance, IIRC, and improved some longevity on something.


    If they also improved the carbon electrode itself, maybe just improved consistency in the manufacturing process, that might be it. Effectively, tighter tolerances allow running at higher loadings.


    All speculation, of course.


    7 Nov 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • The improved grid patent was for the positive electrode, rather than the negative. Positive grids haven't been a huge issue in the past because the negatives typically died of sulfation first. Without sulfation as a primary failure mechanism, the weaknesses in positive grid became more obvious.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Inferred by TG at the 2011 SC at New Castle was that never before has an electrode in ANY battery had to be tested for durability. As always the cathode died out first due to sulfation.


    There was also a "slip up" by one of the Axion leadership, who will remain nameless, and that's that the PbC exceeded 300,000 light duty cycle discharges, and charges. This mini-conversation occurred at this year's SC. But then, I also heard that the testing had ceased after 100,000 cycles had been obtained. All curious to me.


    When I asked TG at the 2012 SC about how many more cycles the PbC had obtained, he replied 100,000 cycles, as that's all that's necessary for the automotive industry. What I failed to ask was what's needed for the grid?


    I agree JP, that the new patent for the electrode could just be a result of having to increase its durability, as the carbon sheeting lasts far more than anyone ever dreamed.
    7 Nov 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • HTL: My 2 cents is that the "charge management board" required for each battery in the string may be a less critical component of the PbC string. If the charge/discharge characteristics of the PbC are such that the Management Board can fail soft (not damage the battery string), it allows higher overall string reliability. i.e. a MB failure is not equivalent to a battery failure OR a string failure.


    I can't know to what extent the BB is involved ACTIVELY in operational string balancing. But Axion has stated that a PbC string self balances to a large extent. Possibly the MB monitors the SOC and intervenes only under certain conditions; such as initial start-up or after battery replacement. Therefore it could be that my scenario is correct.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • "I can't know to what extent the BB is involved ACTIVELY in operational string balancing."


    Does "charge management board" handle both charge and discharge situations" If those functions are integrated into a single board the board would need to accommodate the different discharge characteristic of the PbC relative to conventional AGMs.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv: My working assumption is that the Battery Management Board is effectively a voltmeter, a bidirectional power switch and a serial link to the Battery Management System computer. It would be able to shunt some (likely variable) current around the individual battery during both charge and discharge.


    All information on the battery characteristics (AGM, PbC, etc.) would reside in the BMS computer. That is, the boards would be generic and stupid.


    My assumption, from above, is that if the board fails it will do so with the shunt switch(es) open. By design. This would leave the battery in the string but not ACTIVELY balanced by the BMS. Eventually a technician would replace the failed board. Which should be cheap compared to the PbC itself.


    And that's probably stretched my assumptionability to the limit :-)
    9 Nov 2012, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Yet another participant.

    9 Nov 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... All these announced product launches fit well with normal development cycles if you figure that the EV market was considered viable in 2007. Now we get to see if these products have good alternative uses. Since the company I hang-out at is in the battery business, they have found several that are quite good at extending the efficiency & usage time as well as charging circuits for existing battery power. Among our favorites are product from Atmel, Toshiba & SAFT.
    9 Nov 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, Thanks. I was thinking the same thing. I've seen a number of chip sets coming out over the last year from companies like ATMEL and Linear and figured the wave started with the EV hype cycle. Good news as you suggest since they will find their way into markets like UPS, E-bikes etc. And I'm sure there was considerable emphasis on efficiency so they will benefit in both cost and reduced BMS losses.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • 11/6/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 65, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 53200, Vol 458734, AvTrSz: 7057
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2745, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2619
    # Buys, Shares: 31 119884, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2639
    # Sells, Shares: 34 338850, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2612
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.83 (26.1% “buys”), DlyShts 25782 (5.62%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.61%


    I'm really impressed today that we could see this of kind buy:sell and total volume with such a low absolute number of short sales. This suggests either a high percentage of inter-broker or intra-broker trades or market-makers being quite long.


    Regardless of that, I have to ask where the shares are coming from. Heavy selling at low and declining price suggests we have a big seller or two back. Can we assume it's someone like Special Situations, Manatuck Hill or Blackrock? Is it possible that many retail traders or investors are dumping out? Looking at the last few days short volumes (in thousands, 21.14, 30.99, 13.90, 33.24, and 73.58) I can't see a ton of shares flowing in. BTW, the VWAPs for those days were $0.2807, $0.2723, $0.2798, $0.2814, and $0.2708. Anyway, if the “ Dly Sht % of 'sells” does provide any indication of large sellers dumping (via hitting the bid at a high rate), we can't see it in the percentages.


    Taking a look at my charts' short behavior, price and volume, this continues to make me think of the August approach to the quarterly report.


    The experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken, with the 25-day period now joining the rush down. With the increased volume the last two days even the 100-day is now showing a start down.


    On the traditional TA front, everything says there is no up in sight yet. With the volume increasing a bit today as price weakened further it seems likely that we may see even weaker prices. Not knowing where the selling is coming from bother me.


    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.


    6 Nov 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Hard: Where the selling pressure is coming from both surprises me and bugs me, too. Crosses my mind that some(one) may have run for the hills when JP yesterday wrote that his favored model BMW to first use the PbC, is not presently using the PbC.


    Looked at some indicators today (on a three year chart), and Money Flow is midway crossing from overbought to oversold, at around 40. William % R is close to minus 100, as oversold as it gets. MACD seems to be a junk indicator. Today we just went beneath the bottom (sorry, iindelco) Bollinger Band. Chailkins Volatility (10 Day EMA, 10 day period) is at zero. Relative Strength Index is oversold at around 28.


    Most indicators I see seem to indicate that Axion is a solid buy right now.


    But in my opinion what's restricting more catfish feeding is really all down to two things, gaining a strategic partner, and a couple of sizeable orders.


    I do agree that this reminds me of just before the August report, but I'm still up in the air leaning toward doubt that a deep pocket or two are liquidating...again. I recall that Mercy, when she sold, the stock took a tumble. Thinking someone out there in the retail sphere has mailed it in, and we're just absorbing a few 100 thousand shares.


    Volume the next few days will most likely tell the story...if one of your listed fat cats is liquidating, or not.


    Not a smart move, especially when it's a near categorical certainty that Axion is going to have a handsome increase YoY top line revenues last quarter, as when compared to revenues from the same quarter, last year.
    6 Nov 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Plus the volume now is nowhere near like the weeks before. Now we just get a 1 or 2 large block dumps a day, rather than throughout the day. I suspect around the time of the report the price should quickly recover. We did reach 30c very easily last week on very low volume, because likely someone in NY wasn't around to sell. So I bet a higher volume buy pressure would quickly push this back into the 30s.
    6 Nov 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • A lack of news with a quarterly report due next week can be unsettling for some. On balance, yesterday reminded me of a Norville Barnes line from the Coen Brothers comedy, The Hudsucker Proxy:


    – "Relax, it's only natural in a period of transition for the more timid element to run for cover."


    Frankly I was more than a little cheered that D-Inv found the new NS sustainability report and it clarifies their intentions on battery power.



    I continue to believe the fat cats have been reduced to skin and bones, if not desiccated corpses.
    7 Nov 2012, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • John, is the CC confirmed next week? Hopefully the 10Q and the call will be the same day (or maybe Friday morning after a Thursday afternoon report).


    Also do you expect any word on the next placement on the call? Seems with the holiday season starting on Nov.22 it's now or never for a 2012 placement unless Axion investor can squeeze such a large event in between post-turkey and Xmas.


    I'm thinking the lack of an impetus to buy at these insanely cheap levels has more to do with the looming placement then it does anything else.


    At what point does our trailing average pps start to impact the next raise?
    7 Nov 2012, 04:56 AM Reply Like
  • I got an e-mail this morning from Allen & Caron saying that the CC has been scheduled for Thursday the 15th at 11 a.m. The press release should hit soon.


    The 10-Q should be filed before the SEC closes on Wednesday.


    I'm reluctant to guess whether Tom will have anything to report on the next raise during the call. I'm sure they've been working the potential investor pool for a while, but there's nothing like the uncertainty of a presidential election to complicate the process.


    If we get decent numbers for Q3 and signs of progress on other fronts, I'm inclined to think that Q1 of next year would yield a better price than Q4 of this year. It's pretty easy for investors to pound the table on the reasonableness of a 30 day look-back, but much harder to make the argument for 60 or 90 days.


    In the end I'm torn. I know that investors are worried about the next raise, but I also know that the worry is counterproductive because it keeps the stock price down and sets up a self-fulfilling prophecy.


    In the perennial wrestling match between fear and greed, there's no question that fear is firmly in control. What I'm hoping for is something to break the cycle of muted expectations.
    7 Nov 2012, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma: "I suspect around the time of the report the price should quickly recover."


    This is what I believe I see on my charts in the August time-frame.


    Since I (possibly irrantionally?) believe that we will see at least a continued strong revenue growth reported, I am expecting at least a short-term pop in price.


    But with this (now) repeated apparent exhibition of selling pressure when we believe the former big sellers are exhausted, I now become pessimistic about the sustainability of price from the reporting, sans supporting information such as confirmation of a (larger?) sale or progression to fleet testing by a major auto manufacturer, etc. Rosewater announcing a large order backlog developing for when UL certification is complete would be a good catalyst.


    I have begun to wonder if the continued presence of larger well-capitalized MMs suggests that they are playing the stock (computers are cheap, fast and accurate). I know JP discounts this, but I put nothing beyond the realm of possibility when my TFH kicks in and there's lots of free Fed debt-money injected into the markets from QEi.


    No way to know, but even the bluntness of our instruments used to take a SWAG at seller exhaustion couldn't explain being this far off, IMO. So I deduce there's something else going on.


    7 Nov 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • John: "but there's nothing like the uncertainty of a presidential election to complicate the process".


    Or a hurricane named Sandy followed by winter weather coming in? I presume that some travel plans and potential meetings needed rescheduling, at a minimum.


    Add in uncertainty about the impact on our facilities, ... until it was all over and done.


    7 Nov 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Thelen now publicly speaking about the release time and concurrent OTR loco is very encouraging, it tells me this project is moving forward if not finished. I don't think he would even speak about it unless it was already successful in his eyes.


    O's re-election could be a setback for small business and consequently Axion, but I believe that was the pressure we got the past couple weeks but could be done now as the data was pointing to him winning all along. I will be cautiously optimistic if we hold steady or move up today, but I think it is really up to the retailers who now own the stock and whether they chase axion down selling based on the election results and what they perceive will continue to be a weak economy for some time. On the other hand some investors may view the strength of a company like Axion who made it through the past several years as a strong investment especially with the continuance of O's agenda.


    We shall see...
    7 Nov 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • I'm thinking that the re-election of Obama will have a dynamic effect on many investment sectors. I believe this factor could revitalize (or at the least stabilize) the much-abused altenergy sector (home of AXPW, whether we like it or not, and whether or not we strive to differentiate between a sound micro-cap and hopium moonbeams). It would be logical to project that the BO administration will double down on the survivors in this category, so we may even see another visitation from the swarms of whales which departed late 2011.


    I reiterate my plan to add at $.25...
    7 Nov 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • CC on 15th on Maya & I's b-day. Hope TG has a nice gift for us. Don't get many presents at this age
    7 Nov 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... More water for mud making from the barrel that never empties.
    6 Nov 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Reminds me of Douglas Preston's and Lincoln Child's novel "The Water Pit." Just when you reach the treasure room at the bottom of the water pit (a shaft on an island supposedly dug by pirates to bury their treasure) the floor gives out and more water comes rushing in.


    Novel was based on an actual water pit on an island where treasure hunters lost money over and over trying to get to the bottom. I hope the same is not true for AXPW.


    6 Nov 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Bang. I remember reading the Readers Digest article in an, at the time, old issue. Treasure and pirates....good stuff! And any story with coconut fiber is sure to entertain.
    6 Nov 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
    NEW CASTLE, Pa., Nov. 7, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc. (OTCQB: AXPW), announced plans to release its third quarter 2012 results before market on Thursday, November 15. The Company will hold its earnings conference call the same day at 11:00 am ET. Interested parties should call 877-317-6789 (domestic) or 412-317-6789 (international), to access the call.
    7 Nov 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • The NS report clearly shows that Axion is and will be their only partner and that they´re putting a lot of time and money on it. This news will surely move the price up today...because I read between the lines that NS will soon sign a big contract
    7 Nov 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • I will be pleasantly surprised if anyone notices besides Axionistas.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • A123 news of the day:


    Item 3.01 Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing.


    As previously disclosed, on October 16, 2012, the Company received a letter from The Nasdaq Listing Qualifications Staff (the "Staff") stating that the Staff had determined that the Company's securities would be delisted from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC ("Nasdaq"). On October 23, 2012, the Company announced it was appealing the Staff's determination. On November 6, 2012, the Company withdrew its request for an appeal. As a result, the Company received a letter from the Staff indicating that trading of the Company's common stock would be suspended at the opening of business on November 7, 2012, and a Form 25-NSE would subsequently be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which would remove the Company's securities from listing and registration on Nasdaq.


    Following delisting, the Company's securities may trade on the OTC Bulletin Board ("OTC BB") or the Pink OTC Markets Inc. (the "Pink Sheets"), but only if at least one market maker decides to quote the Company's common stock. There is no assurance that any market maker will decide to quote the Company's common stock immediately following delisting by Nasdaq or at all, and thus there is no assurance that the Company's common stock will be eligible to trade on the OTC BB or the Pink Sheets."


    They opened on the Pinks this morning as AONEQ.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
    7 Nov 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Cramer just says Romney loss is bad for coal and bad for NSC.


    Could be a buying opportunity coming up in NSC if you like the long term story and want a dividend with your AXPW "pin action" :-)


    Of course dividends probably become a little less valuable, but many will still own those stocks (which need real money, not cooked books, to pay those dividends!) in their IRAs.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Wtb: After reading the whole PDF this A.M., I think I'm in love.


    7 Nov 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • If you're interested in Train Start-Stop, here's a reference:



    Don't know what per cent of the market these guys have ... ran across them following up on a Traction Control reference on the AltoonaWorks facebook page about upgraded locomotives.
    7 Nov 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • "If you're interested in Train Start-Stop, here's a reference:"


    ISTM that train S/S would be a very good match with PbC.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • The white pager has a 2007 date on it. They take Master Card. Anyone have a spare locomotive engine we can try it out on?
    7 Nov 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • I've got five Leopard-I battle tanks but no locomotives.
    7 Nov 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Did check in with my Altoona contact last night, and NS-999 is still in the shop.


    " ... no way of knowing exactly what they're doing, but imagine they're installing the new batteries and racks and cooling ductwork etc. "


    So we don't really know anything for certain, but I choose to remain guardedly optimistic since they took it out of the shop previously when they presumably did something but obviously weren't ready to finish the job. Of course that could happen again!
    7 Nov 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the update WTB.


    I'm hoping NS999 hits the tracks early 2013 so they can get the cold and hot weather testing in earlier vs waiting for winter 2013/14. With the level of work they have to do I see no reason this is not possible but, of course, priorities rule. With all those locos returned to leases or self stored I'm hoping the 999 and OTR locos moved up in priority to keep the shop running. Nothing like the need for a paycheck to make believers out of the troops.
    7 Nov 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • "... and NS-999 is still in the shop. "


    Wasn't the loco parked outside on last report?
    7 Nov 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • As I recall the timeline it was in the shop for a couple days and then out. Now it seems to be in again. It beats the heck out of having it just sitting on a siding somewhere.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Wtb: "measure twice, cut once"! ;-))


    Old carpentry rule.


    I'm suspecting that they are doing steps at a time to work it in between other jobs as materials, time, space, ... become available. From my old days at a big company, we always did revenue-producing things first and worked the experimental stuf in as we could *until* we were pushing the project-management schedule badly. PM people hated us.


    If that's the case, I can see three or four cycles into and out of the shop until they get to the point they can work on it outside, if that's needed, for any finishing touches.


    SWAG, of course,
    7 Nov 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv, Per WTB (IIRC), The 999 went in, out and back in again in about a weeks time frame. It's been in the shop since as far as we know.


    My WAG is that the guys in the shop are running pools on how long it will take this board to get a sign that the unit has moved. Most are not betting outside of the 24 hour time frame any more! :))
    7 Nov 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • All: No need to wonder: links to the comments about NS-999 in/out are in the header.


    7 Nov 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    I cut it 3 times and it's still too short. ;-)
    7 Nov 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • SD: reminds me of an old Darma & Greg episode where Darma's father "leveled" a table for Greg's mother. She foolishly wouldn't settle for the match book under one short leg.


    7 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • WTB reported it back in. Concentrator 166, 22 OCT 7:08 pm.


    I remember thinking at the time how muted the reaction was.
    7 Nov 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • They've towed the 999 around the yard so much I was thinking that the chassis might need a rebuild. Moved more from other vehicle assist than it ever did from Odyssey batteries! Would have been nice if they used an assist loco to drag it over to the East Penn recycling center to unload its last storage system before they parked it. East Penn would have appreciated the high end Pb.
    7 Nov 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • I will be posting an instablog questions organizer for the conference call later today. Thanks to WTB for asking me about this. I've been kind of out of it lately with personal issues.


    I found Thelen's remarks about NS 999 very encouraging. After the capital issue is behind Axion I'm buying more (if I don't lose my court case Nov 14 - knock on wood - and can keep my Axion stock.).
    7 Nov 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • I find the reference to an OTR also encouraging.


    While TG had previously mentioned the OTR, I thought it was still somewhat just a prospect.


    Discussing it in the sustainability report makes it much more definite in my mind.


    7 Nov 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Bang, As always thanks for your attention to this effort.


    And best of luck in your court case. Hopefully you along with the two lawyers will come out winners. Two outcomes are assured. ;)
    7 Nov 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Bang: we all wish you good fortune on the court case.


    xxx <<--- fingers crossed.


    7 Nov 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, bang! I was going to provide an Insta. All yours. Thanks again.


    Best of luck with the court.
    7 Nov 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • way OFT but,
    I guess I'm always the last to catch fads, but 665,593,850 views can't be wrong. Gangnam style.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • That's a really scary number of views.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • I like yours better but I have too many years and the wrong chromosomes.



    And if ya just had to know #2 before yours at #3.

    7 Nov 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Well the neanderthals were known for their inability to follow fads, despite their witty and insightful commentary in their neanderthal chat groups.


    In fact, some speculate that this fault is what lead to their extinction.


    "Have you heard of this new thing? It's called a 'spear'" were often the last words that a neanderthal heard.


    7 Nov 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Metro,
    Another take.
    7 Nov 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • D.


    The fad they apparently missed out on was "microliths." It was the nanotech of 70 millenia ago.

    7 Nov 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • And in less than 24 hours later the gangnam video went from 665,593,850 views to 670,034,073.
    8 Nov 2012, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry to harp on this, it is estimated that PSY receives about $8 per thousand views. At 8,000,000 views per day, his daily income is $64,000, just from this one video.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • "Sorry to harp on this, it is estimated that PSY receives about $8 per thousand views."


    Interesting. Thanks for the tidbit.


    At $64K a day for several days the pocket change gets too big carry in the pockets for very long.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • I'm in the wrong business
    8 Nov 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power™ Announces Date Of Its Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Release, Conference Call And Webcast

    7 Nov 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Random thoughts about short sales ...


    With ATDF being so often on the bid/ask at best so frequently, I wonder if a lot of the trades are intra-broker. The same could be if other MMs occupy those spots.


    Those sells would generate no short sales.


    I don't know why I didn't consider this before and I don't know if it holds any water.


    7 Nov 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • HT whats the status on Q? Are they completely out of Axion stock now?
    7 Nov 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen has the best quesstimate on that, but I do recal they are below the required reporting level so it's all best estimate now.


    7 Nov 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • The last Form 4 filing from Quercus said they had 1,118,612 shares remaining on July 18th. Total reported volume since then is 27.8 million shares. Unless Quercus took a very long vacation or dropped their percentage of daily trading volume to about 1/3 of historical levels, they have to be out of stock by now.
    7 Nov 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Quercus during their exit showed no propensity to adjust their wish to liquidate based on share price while they had to report their sales. I can't imagine why they would change their behavior with the pittance of shares that remained in their possession after their last filing. I think DG had bigger things on his mind than trying to game Axion for a few bucks. If he's not gone he's holding the last few shares in his sock drawer with his options.
    7 Nov 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo
    oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo


    Yoda says
    To the next concentrator proceed you must



    oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo
    oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo oOo
    7 Nov 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like