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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    alpha dog
    7 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    beta
    7 Nov 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    omega
    7 Nov 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Closed up 0.0002 USD baby. I knew it was going to close up once this month! And off the low of the day as well!

     

    OK, I'll use it again. Gamma.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    It's all "Greeks" to me.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Nov 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/RFYlw8 nice video of the naval project!
    7 Nov 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Too bad they didn't show the installation of the Axion PbC batteries in the video. You can only watch a couple of guys put solar panels on a metal frame for so long!
    7 Nov 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    I agree with a long ago article that John wrote relative to the placement of the solar panels. They should have better positioned them over parking spaces to make them more valuable in the summer time. These look like most are just covering the entrance to the parking garage. If true wasted.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I requested they snap a few pictures of the electronics and storage when the video first came out. We shall see if they are willing to share...
    7 Nov 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7604) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    You mean like this ;) http://bit.ly/TNikde
    8 Nov 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    We continue to evaluate the market for smaller Cubes for residential and community storage and larger Cubes for utilities, oil rigs and other
    larger applications such as solar and wind. We anticipate establishing additional formal marketing agreements for some of these applications in
    2012.

     

    This was from the last quarter report... So news could be coming any time now!
    7 Nov 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Nice link, axion-nl. Thanks.

     

    :-) Couldn't help wondering while watching, though, about rain runoff from those solar panels and what it might be like driving down that parking garage ramp in a heavy rain.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if the video was posted already... but its a nice one :) And yeah, the structural design of the garage is rather strange.. we dont have those in the Netherlands ;)
    7 Nov 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Wide and heavy American cars don't cope well with narrow corkscrew parking garage ramps.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Bloomberg says BO is going to propose a carbon tax to cut deficit:

     

    http://bloom.bg/T4dcPB

     

    Hat tip to doubleguns.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    I just don't see Congress agreeing to this. They wouldn't agree to pass Cap and Trade as it was, much less be willing to pass it as a new tax. Just my opinion though.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "I just don't see Congress agreeing to this. They wouldn't agree to pass Cap and Trade as it was, much less be willing to pass it as a new tax."

     

    I agree, LT, with a caveat. I would personally oppose (and quite vigorously I might add) a carbon tax promoted for deficit reduction but would support an energy tax levied on ALL energy including solar, wind, biofuels, hydropower, etc. for the purpose of REPLACING some part of social security and medicare taxes.
    8 Nov 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I'd like an HFT tax
    8 Nov 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >jpau ... That is exactly the purpose of the "transaction tax". I've read several places that is might range in $0.0001 to $0.0005. It is not the only way put forward to curb HFT quote stuffing. Others are fines for bid/ask lasting less than 2 to 5 seconds and/or at multiple strikes from the same trade desk within a given time interval (which I don't know the specifics). Another is fines for withdrawal of liquidity from those trading desks that are designated as MM. I've no opinion on which is best but nothing put forward would affect me more than .01%.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    I know the power companies that were offering rebates on solar installations were in fact purchasing carbon credits. Were they preparing for this carbon tax?
    7 Nov 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    At the time they were probably focusing on renewable energy credits, or REC's, which are the accounting tool utilities use to prove compliance with renewable portfolio standards. I'm sure there was also a recognition that the same bits of paper would have additional value if a carbon tax was implemented.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    WAaay OT: But cool anyway: http://bit.ly/ST2CNU
    7 Nov 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Way cool. Wonder about the voltage arcing between the "players."
    7 Nov 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/T5lozh
    7 Nov 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    " http://bit.ly/T5lozh "

     

    :-) Thanks, ii. One might say that arcing in the video was rather electofying.
    7 Nov 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Q3 Axion Questions organizer Instablog is up now here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Nov 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "Bloomberg says BO is going to propose a carbon tax to cut deficit:

     

    http://bloom.bg/T4dcPB "

     

    uhhh, "Nick Robins, an analyst at the bank in London" suggests BO could go for a carbon tax.

     

    Attribution of superstorm Sandy to climate change is certainly being voiced in some quarter but is quite literally unsupportable. Worst storms have struck New England in the past. Sandy was a once in a 100 year event that happened to landfall near or at high tide (plus during a full moon).

     

    http://bit.ly/PY7AJN

     

    And, there is apparently no evidence of statistically significant sea surface warming along Sandy's path that would have contributed to storm energy.
    http://bit.ly/Rj1Kjg
    7 Nov 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I'm actually in your corner on this one. While I believe in climate change, and do think humans are contributing; I hate it when people try to treat anecdotal evidence as data. One storm is just that, one storm. Seems like it's been 6 or 7 years since Katrina - oh wait, it has.

     

    I get just as weary when we have a cold spell with snow in winter and people ask where the global warming is.

     

    minor nit with the 2nd article: he claims that - The 1821 hurricane hit at low tide, the population of New York was far less, and the sea levels have risen since.

     

    Wonder why the sea have levels risen? Did someone dump a bunch of pennies in the ocean?
    7 Nov 2012, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    While it's true that you can't attribute Sandy to climate change, NPR did have an expert from NOAA on that pointed out that the ocean has been rising by inches for many years now due to other weather and continental shifts. So places like NY are going to have to deal with these storm surge and flooding issues happening more often whether you want to attribute it to climate change or not. NY has been looking into what to do about this, they just haven't made any decision yet, since even modest forms of coastal protection are probably going to run in the billions of dollars range.
    7 Nov 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Lab: The ocean has not been rising by "inches for many years." Whomever from NOAA who said that needs to be fired.

     

    The ocean has only risen a meter in the last thousand years, maybe 1500 years. But, long term, that's still a lot.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    "Global average sea level rose at an average rate of around 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year from 1950 to 2009 and at a satellite-measured average rate of about 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993 to 2009, an increase on earlier estimates

     

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Cazenave, Anny (18 June 2010). "Sea-Level Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones". Science Magazine 328 (5985): 1517–1520. Bibcode 2010Sci...328.1517N. doi:10.1126/science.11...

     

    IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 [ http://bit.ly/SDurqc ]
    8 Nov 2012, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "Wonder why the sea have levels risen? Did someone dump a bunch of pennies in the ocean?"

     

    :-) Actually, something along those lines does occur on a regular basis in two forms. Land erosion, vegetative material and other land runoff particles, human sewage particulate, becomes bottom sedimentation. Progressive enlargement of Bangladesh through expansion of river delta is illustrative of such fill in "shrinking the bowl." And then there is the bottom up phenomenon from spreading continental plates and slow growth of mid-ocean ridges over long periods of time. (And these mid-ocean ridges emit a considerable amount of thermal energy which one will not find in any of the General Circulation Models used by IPCC to project climate change.)
    8 Nov 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    ""Global average sea level rose at an average rate of around 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year from 1950 to 2009 and at a satellite-measured average rate of about 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993 to 2009, an increase on earlier estimates"

     

    Within the last week or so reliability of satellite -derived sea level measures was either rejected or severely challenged by discovery of a problem with base referencing (as I recall). Didn't find the reference on a quick !yahoo search but will try to remember to try again later.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    NOAA could not even accurately predict the amount of snowfall that whacked us yesterday. Two days before, their model put my town in the .25 to 1" zone on the forecast map. The night before they said 1-3" mostly in the evening. Yesterday the snow started before noon, and by rush hour was 2-3" and was a total of 6" by this am.

     

    I just do not understand why folks believe that computer models can predict global climate years in advance when they cannot even get local weather right 24 hours in advance.

     

    --------------

     

    On a separate note, for those following my saga of Sandy in northern Westchester, my power was finally restored yesterday just as the storm started. But because few were expecting how nasty this nor'easter would really be, folks who cannot handle snow got caught out in it a rush hour and our local highways became parking lots. My wife spent 5 hours getting home on a 20 mile commute.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Sorry, not inches but mm/year for the last 60 years around the East coast from NC up through NY. I'm not saying it's happening over night, I'm saying it's happening, and the cities along the coast are acknowledging that it is happening, and are trying to figure out what they are going to do about it before it becomes more of a problem.

     

    http://bit.ly/QqUHbk
    8 Nov 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    There are two effective ways to deal with the ocean. Build sea walls or move. Complaining and worrying accomplishes nothing. I claim to be an AGW agnostic, but the reality is I'm a fatalist. In a world with 7 billion people, there will be plenty of demand for all the hydrocarbons I choose to not burn. Since the buyers will each figure that a little CO2 beats the heck out of freezing in the dark, I'll have a darned hard time criticizing their decision.

     

    When I was far younger Blood Sweat and Tears had a verse that went "troubles are many they're as deep as a well, I can swear there aint no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell." I feel the same way about AGW.

     

    http://bit.ly/RKyPV8
    8 Nov 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    I feel that there's way too much money being spent on "climate change" research. It's become too political. I'd rather build a railroad!
    8 Nov 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Actually, they are trying to be a little more creative in NY. They are looking, not only at building sea walls, but also how to mitigate the damage caused by sea surges. They're already allowing new building construction to put electrical and mechanical controls not in the basement of a building, where it could be easily flooded, but up on higher floor levels. They are also looking at better pumping systems, ways of closing off or blocking areas of the subways to prevent storm surges from flooding everything, and, as has been reported here by others, looking at requiring utilities and cell phone providers to have battery and/or other forms of power back-up in case the main grid is effected.
    8 Nov 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Bylo ... I'd rather build a railroad, too. A high speed dedicated passenger railroad to cut a large percentage of air & auto traffic but the USA is just not that into it. You say "... too much money being spent of "climate change". (?) It is all an effort to conserve & reduce energy consumption. We learnt during the Carter administration (the last time anyone tried implementing an "Energy Policy") that Americans don't like being told to conserve. Climate change is the same goal with a new headline. Americans don't like being told to conserve. Either moniker you place on the same goal it will be met with the same attitude until that glorious day when Americans start conserving energy because they can't afford the energy that should have been conserving all along. We enjoy being impractical and stubborn.

     

    "The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds." —John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (13 December 1935)
    8 Nov 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Oil tankers dumped in the ocean? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    I'll give it a plug.

     

    http://huff.to/PZRJKT
    8 Nov 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Americans are great at developing and studying things to death in more recent times. Leave it to the other 95 % to actually implement it.

     

    That's a great long term plan.
    8 Nov 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/VJHnjy may or may not be what I remember reading on satellite sea level measurements, but it addresses the problem.

     

    Since the reference info appears integral to promotion of a new satellite project, I'm reserving judgment on credibility of both past sea level estimates derived from satellite observations and the claim of unreliability of those estimates due to lack of "a stable enough reference for the measurements being made." Climate science types appear to have gone to school on defense industry types and learned well the lesson on value of yelling "the Huns are coming, the Huns are coming!"
    8 Nov 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "Oil tankers dumped in the ocean? ;-))"

     

    :-) That is one which had not occurred to me before. IIUC, every boat, ship, yacht, etc. that floats displaces a volume of water equal to the volume of that portion of the vessel submerged below the water line. :-) Ocean going vessels have likely increased in number and volume in some rough correlation with human population, global trade, and naval force size over the past few centuries.
    8 Nov 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: A good science fair project would be to estimate the rise due to everything that's sunk to the bottom (we can ignore reduction due to corrosion I guess), afloat and estimated growth over the coming decades. That way, akin to "the Huns are coming ..." you mention to garner grants, we may have some promising high-schoolers getting grants to study and prove AFDROOL (Anthropogenic Floating Device Global Rise of Ocean Levels) is a serious problem that must be resolved NOW! Their efforts can be carried to college, where new schools will pop up like poppies in Afghanistan, and the studies can be formalized and subject proper "scientific discipline" (ROTFLMAO) and "peer review". The National Science Advisory Board would become involved to add "gravitas" to the movement.

     

    We can, of course in the best capitalist traditions, start an exchange for FDROOL credits, for those that can't clean up their own FDROOL.

     

    Al Gore would sponsor it (and own a huge stake in them) and add another 2'x2' solar panel to his yacht, berthed (IIRC) in the Tellico Village Yacht Basin in TN, to offset the huge diesel engines beneath the decks.

     

    It wouldn't take long for another bunch of high-schoolers, sponsored by the entrenched floating devices industry, to begin research disproving AFDROOL.

     

    Then would begin a decades-long argument between the two sides which would yield very little actual knowledge (but lots of skewed data).

     

    However, all would not be lost as grant money would become more copious, each side would spend more on ads, and the taxpayer would become poorer.

     

    All is right with the world.

     

    N.B.: Abuse of the "F" in either "AFDROOL: or "FDROOL" could endanger your ability to qualify for Federally provided grant programs related to AFDROOL studies. You may also be required to register as an FDROOL offender and keep authorities notified of your current address. You may be prohibited from frequenting certain locales - beaches, lakes, bath tubs (except yearly for hygiene purposes), and virtual presentations of such on-line.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I have experienced der goreacle's massive wake on that lake personally, HTL. Unless some upstart Obama crony has spent millions on a bigger pleasure barge, its the largest vessel on the lake. And I have heard various stories from the locals (yes, I do a yearly art festival near particular TVA reservoir) as to whether the tiny solar panels on "Solar II" are used to run the cooling fan for the 12 person jacussi or an industrial strength array of vibrators.
    9 Nov 2012, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    TB: If I ever build a hovel on my small lot up there, you'll have a key and free use as needed.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • alasmaci
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, about 1/2 of the apparent sea level rise from NC to NY is the result of post-glacial isostatic rebound.

     

    see: http://bit.ly/VM2EJp

     

    You can check out the research on Google Scholar.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Has anybody calculated the percentage attributable to incremental water displacement by fatter swimmers? Seriously, the obesity epidemic must be taken into account if we want accuracy.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    John: A difficult problem as the body mas index, indicating percentage of fat to bone, muscle, ... is so variable. This index would affect the average percentage of mass above and below water.

     

    That alone makes displacement tough to calculate.

     

    Now add in fat location: belly vs. buttocks, ... and you see where we are going.

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. this comment is gender-agnostic and doesn't consider other obvious differences in floatation qualities.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    An ECOtality exec recently gave a talk in which he discussed using battery storage for EV charging stations. He indicated that "tests are being conducted with an NiMH battery, four of the Lithium variety, and two 'advanced' lead-carbon batteries."

     

    http://bit.ly/SO3q5D

     

    I decided to write them to see if they are testing Axion's PbC. First, remember that ECOtality is the same group that was behind the recent carbon lead-acid HEV project where they tested the UltraBattery as well as Exide's carbon additive battery. If you remember, they wrote in their report that "it also was planned to evaluate a battery pack from Axion Power (with a proprietary negative plate) under SHCHEVP. Unfortunately, production of this battery was cancelled and a carbon lead-acid technology from Exide was tested in its place" (p. 35 [47])."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/JL1N4a

     

    Anyhow, in writing back to me, ECOtality referenced this event ("for some reason they couldn't deliver the battery"), sounded somewhat miffed about it, and indicated that there is no current testing with Axion. It's a shame, and I do wonder why Axion didn't deliver. I know that Axion is working with GM to improve the PbC for E-assist use; perhaps they decided that whatever they could offer at the time wasn't up to the task and that they would prefer to wait on public testing until they had a better offering for that app. Anyhow, it seems to have cut off relations with a potential partner on other apps as well, which is a shame.
    7 Nov 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    But really, does anyone think that EV charging stations is going to be a big market in the next 20 years or so?

     

    Yeah, I'd love to have PbC sales of any kind and demonstrations in the news. But I'm glad our focus is where it is.

     

    D
    7 Nov 2012, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, sounds like they were a bit disappointed. I can understand Axion backing out of the HEV test as the PbC probably lacks the energy for a good showing. However, it looks like it might have led into a storage opportunity. Since you have ECOtality's ear, have you suggested they give Axion another try given the PbC's strength in this area?
    8 Nov 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I've done it, Tim. I have my doubts it'll lead anywhere, but who knows?
    8 Nov 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, I am also disappointed regarding the HEV test opportunity.

     

    But then I have to also think, Maybe there is no sense visiting the fishmonger when all tips of your poles are down. Could be Axion felt the testing being done with BMW, GM and large Asian concern in similar areas was enough. Why go through a middleman?

     

    Maybe we need a little Axionista cheer. NDA's STINK.....I can't hear you! :)

     

    http://bit.ly/SU6s9u
    8 Nov 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    There are lots of promoters running around that expect companies like Axion to participate in all manner of tests, which includes by transitivity paying a fair (or major) share of the costs.

     

    If you're trying to manage financial resources and a limited technical staff, you need to choose your opportunities carefully and avoid wild goose chases, which means a lot of people get told no.

     

    We saw exactly the same decision with the LC SuperHybrid and I don't think any of us have enough information to criticize or praise the decision.

     

    Some PR is just too expensive, particularly if you can't see a sizable pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    John: "If you're trying to manage financial resources and a limited technical staff, you need to choose your opportunities carefully and avoid wild goose chases, which means a lot of people get told no".

     

    I think this was a major mistake of (CPST). They didn't know how to say no after the first couple years I became aware of them. Their R&D, SGA, ... expenses just kept outpacing revenue increases for quite a while. When I first got into them they were committed to managing to cash flow and had been doing a reasonable, IMO, job of it.

     

    Then we see one-off cars like the CMT-380, which yields nothing but hot air, talks with a major auto maker (at least that's what management said) which peters out after a couple years, ...

     

    After the last couple of CCs, I'm hopeful that what I've seen is a return to focus on their core strengths in the market and managing to cash flow.

     

    It'll take time to see if I've read it right though.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    John , Can't argue your points.

     

    Resource constraints need to be well understood for businesses at all levels. Those "Wanting it all" often get far less as a result of their efforts. Don't advance any faster or further than your resources and supply line can support or you'll surely spend eternity in "The Valley of Death". In fact you're inviting it.

     

    Want more information, Can't have it. Augh.

     

    NDA's STINK.....I can't hear you! :)
    8 Nov 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    One of my all time favorite stories goes back to the early 90s when I was trying to buy a couple producing gas properties, one from Texaco and the other from Freeport McMoran. Both companies refused to let us publicly identify them until the deals closed. As you might expect it's tough trying to raise a huge pile of cash to buy an unidentified property from an unidentified seller.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    WT -

     

    Given ZBB's commentary on the new NOPR issued by FERC on including longer-term storage into the rate base, I thought this was an interesting article (long) on attempting to include the cost of transmission infrastructure development into the rate base and the authority which was given in the Energy Policy Act of 2005.

     

    http://bit.ly/SDqe5P

     

    It appears FERC is starting to respond to issues faster than in 2005. I give Chairman Wellinghoff credit for moving the agency forward at a faster pace.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/VFInoW
    7 Nov 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    ESA comments on the NOPR - appears this could also be beneficial to Axion b/c as an additional component it would extend the frequency regulation rules to nonRTO/ISOs.

     

    http://bit.ly/T9c5OB
    8 Nov 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    My last Tesla article (for a while anyway):

     

    http://bit.ly/T75X9L
    8 Nov 2012, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (157) | Send Message
     
    Great article. The comments are more than usually vitriolic. Is there a truth tellers protection program available somewhere?
    8 Nov 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the kind words. As you can see I haven't been getting many.

     

    I understand that shooting holes in somebody's pet investment thesis is more insulting than calling his grandkids ugly and his dog stupid. Write a contrarian blog for a while and you develop a fairly thick skin.
    8 Nov 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    You should write for a Mongolian audience. They call their children ugly because they believe gods will get jealous and punish them if they compliment their children too much (or something like that... I admittedly had a really hard time understanding telling your children that they're ugly for their first few formative years... so my understanding of why they do it may be a bit off base).
    8 Nov 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    I think my parents might be Mongolian. That would explain a lot.

     

    D
    8 Nov 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Nice article. You are just going to have to accept the reality that, no matter how many facts on the subject you present, the Tesla investors aren't going to listen. As I see it, the problem with Tesla is defining what they are supposed to be. As a niche automaker, they might make it because they seem to have made a cool car that wealth people may want to buy (but preferably not with my tax dollars). As a company selling an energy and environment saving auto...well, you've pretty much said all that needs to be said. As you point out, they got the loans from the government to do the latter, but their real chance in surviving is to fill a position in the former. The problem is that the price of the stock is dependent on investors believing both stories, and one or both are likely never going to come true.
    8 Nov 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    Or just that you are ugly. ;) Just kidding.

     

    My mother was full of nice things to say ....

     

    about other kids. She had perfected the passive agressive approach. Now that I have kids she does the same with the grandkids. I have 2:1 odds my wife pops her on TurkeyDay when she compares our 3 year old to the 4-year old triplets that live down the street.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Good, succinct presentation John.

     

    How folks can continue to not believe the hard numbers is beyond me.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Paul Simon explained it well "... all lies and jest, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest ..."

     

    I really was serious when I said this was my last Tesla article for a while. Those who are capable of hearing will have already done so. Those who don't want to hear aren't worth the aggravation.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Thank Goodness ! I'm so tired of the ridiculous arguments & justifications from people that most likely will never own one for a car that is cool (I got to drive a Roadster once) but will never amount to a row of beans in the transport sector. It's a waste of battery power from a company that has buried itself in a mountain of debt.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    It that why you used your more casual picture?

     

    Taking a break from the carnival dunk tank? Man you'd raise a bunch of money at the TSLA charity carnival playing that role!!
    9 Nov 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Jon,
    I read the other day on Wikipedia that Hawaiians used to do the same thing - kept the evil eye off the kids.

     

    "The parents might change the name into something repulsive, like Pupuka ("ugly") or Kūkae ("excrement") in order to protect the child.[4] Such names did not cause ostracism among Hawaiians, but foreign visitors were scandalized."
    9 Nov 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Well...top 5 commented articles for the day on TSC...again.
    Last I checked, mostly "emotional' TSLA responses now....hard to read their rehash.
    9 Nov 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    That gave us clue what kind of sugar daddies TLSA have.
    9 Nov 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    11/7/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 17900, Vol 239275, AvTrSz: 5565
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2575
    # Buys, Shares: 18 95925, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2594
    # Sells, Shares: 25 143350, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2563
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.49 (4.01% “buys”), DlyShts 10000 (4.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.98%

     

    Talk about “narrow spread” or “price compression” - how does a $0.005 spread strike you? Let's add in some oddities. A pre-market trade, very unusual, of 5K went at $0.26. Daily shorts continue very low, especially considering the buy:sell ratio.

     

    On the traditional TA front, we have stayed inside the descending trading channel we re-entered on 10/17 and haven't yet hit the falling support, currently ~$0.25. But a setup for a bounce is now in place with the RSI sitting right atop oversold at 30.16 and MFI, Williams %R, and stochastic all oversold. As price compressed today, volume fell off. A bounce could happen today, but more likely we'll consolidate a day or two first.

     

    On my experimental stuff, we see average trade size has recovered to more “normal” levels, buy:sell may have bottomed and has started moving back towards normal, and volume has dropped back to below three of the averages.

     

    The new inflection point calculations have four still trending down and three below zero.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff, which I suspect my indicate whether big sellers are in, continues at a low value. I think this does support John's thesis that they are primarily exhausted and, as I suspect and mentioned before, we have a new cadre of sellers that are different from the big dumpers of the past. It might even just be market-makers playing.

     

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 46.97%, min: 6.98%, max: 149.46%

     

    The rest of the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.

     

    I'll be away for a few hours this A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Pardon my dumb layman interpretaton...

     

    As I see it in the last 2 months...

     

    - we bounced up off our all time low of .25 from a mark a shade above .25 to higher

     

    - we went up to our resistance line in the vicinity of .34 and then went back down to retest

     

    - we are now at retest levels and finding out if we'll bounce back higher from a level a few tenths higher (1/10?) than the last time down, or the same level, or define a new low

     

    - some think sellers are showing signs of exhaustion

     

    - some think buyers are showing signs of exhaustion

     

    - if we start to go higher, we're still range bound between .25 and .34 until we aren't

     

    - and, on a personal note related to the shareholder survey, I know we have more buyers once we get to .43... I just know it...

     

    - so its just a question of who is more exhausted, buyers or sellers...

     

    - and, oh yeah, also some questions about if there's any news forthcoming... and there's the conference call on the 15th which people may buy or sell in anticipation of.it...
    8 Nov 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Still lurking at $.25...
    8 Nov 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    TB.... understand the lurking at .25, but wonder if (you think) there's a case to be made that each time down we're establishing higher lows...
    8 Nov 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    I snagged more at .26 this week. My lowest catch yet. Drops my average below .36.

     

    Detritivores never get exhausted, floating in the dark depths. They just bide their time waiting for the fast bright carnivores above to drop the bait.
    8 Nov 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Jon: I see firm support at $.25 at work, that's all. Higher lows might be a statistical average at some level, but this is just not a stock (being severely shattered as it is) that gives us good "tells" from charting or TA in general.

     

    IF my prediction that we will see macro forces (ie, government redistribution) flow back into altenergy, I would expect to simultaneously see the whales which follow (some say preceed, given their influence on a crony capitalist system) moving back into the small minority of companies which survived the last round (AXPW among them, of course).

     

    What I don't expect is for AXPW's charts to start matching technical analysis standards - at least, not until the stock price is about 10 times the current low level.

     

    This is NOT to say that we should not pay attention to charts, technical analysis, and monitoring of the activities of government and whales alike - we must. Its just that we cannot use many of the tools which are helpful for UNbroken stocks to predict the future or establish believable trends.

     

    I see $.25 as pricing IN the coming funding round (some think it will arrive late Q1 or early Q2, I believe it will be early Q1), and that assumes that the effort to forge a solid strategic partnership does not fulfill the immediate funding requirments (which without massive buildout to meet major demand are very modest).
    8 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Jon,
    You have to wonder to if some shareholders aren't selling before the next CC, in anticipation of no new news, and worrying that the stock will go down afterwards, as it often does after the CC.
    8 Nov 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    TB - great comment

     

    LabTech - agree that's possible; would add that both some of the February placement investors and larger holders may be merely trimming their positions here for both tax management and risk management purposes... however larger holders trimming positions with a school of fish worth of buyers who are being cautious bottom fishing will create what we've seen in the last two or three weeks
    8 Nov 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if one of Axion's RFPs was for this ConEdison
    Secure Interoperable Open Smart Grid Demonstration Project with Viridity.

     

    http://bit.ly/T9c5OB
    8 Nov 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    The only metric I am interested in is the field trial of the new NS 999. My assumption is that if it goes well I'm golden - if it doesn't I'm toast. As for buying and selling I think smart buyers will be waiting for the next capital raise to be in the rear view mirror. Nothing is going to move the needle except a major deal - but confirmation of the PbC's suitability for rails would be all I need to know to buy more.

     

    Even if I am forced to sell my Axion if I lose in court Nov 14, I will scrape together some pennies I have stashed away and rebuy whenever the dust settles in my life down the road.
    8 Nov 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I agree with your analysis. Personally I am not interested in purchasing until the details of the next capital raise are revealed. The last two capital raises have been punishing for the stock price. I am hopeful the next one will be, as they indicated, in the form of some industry or other strategic alliance that is not so dilutive of stock price. I understand that any price above book is not technically dilutive, but when the stock price goes down or when future earnings have to be distributed among more owners, thus lower potential earnings per share, I do not care what the technical definition is, it hurts current owners. So I am curious what the next capital raise will do to the stock.

     

    Secondly, I would like to see some sales momentum that has legs, i.e. more than just test units. I want to see orders that suggest long-term sales commitments from a rail or automotive OEM such as what Bang describes. As John suggests, there are predictable patterns to stock prices of speculative stocks like Axion. We may get large bumps from here, but after speculative expectations morph into earnings issues, the excitement fades into number crunching e.g. Maxwell. With over a hundred million shares, and possibly more to come, there have to be a lot of sales and good margins to support significant price increases from here; or just unrealistic expectations, like that which supports Tesla. I do not think we have a lot of crazies here, so we need hundreds of millions in sales with better than average industry margins to give us real stock momentum. My take on it anyway.
    8 Nov 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    My concern is when they do dilute the stock some more with funding when will the reverse split become inevitable?

     

    My real finger crossing hopes are they do find that shining white armored hero that comes as a big strategic investor and saves us from the reverse split!
    8 Nov 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "... find that shining white armored hero that comes as a big strategic investor ...."

     

    I'd be happy with a large "bankable" sales contract such as a design win announcement coupled with a purchase order for 10K - 20K PbCs.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    That works for me also!
    8 Nov 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Ditto!
    8 Nov 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    And how long do you suppose it will take to receive any metrics on the NS999 testing?

     

    NS owns that data and has shown no urgency - they'll finish testing whenever they darn well please. So this could take a year? 2 years?

     

    Then there's automotive. They're just now only talking about fleet testing, haven't even started yet. Even if it only takes 6 months and we pass with flying colours, then what? How long until we're in a real, production vehicle? Another year for the automaker to change their production processes to incorporate the 2-battery system?

     

    So what does that leave us? Rosewater? Big unknown there.

     

    Perhaps I've reached peak pessimism, where it seems like we're in for a really long haul.

     

    I'm standing firm, not hitting the sell button. Just trying to mentally prepare myself.

     

    Patience is bitter but its fruit is sweet.

     

    D
    8 Nov 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    D McH, important post. I've broached the timing subject several times but was largely ignored. It's been one of the few big weaknesses of what otherwise has been a very helpful blog. Fortunately, improvement is possible.

     

    One conclusion I reached, when thinking about timing, is that the HUB could play a surprisingly important role---it could provide some revenue and positive news to help fill the long periods of dead space in between announced developments in Axion's much bigger markets: automobile s/s, rail, PC and wildcards. TG may be thanking his stars that he let Joe Pic convince him to develop the HUB.

     

    So how does the timing play out? I don't know, but a reasonable discussion starting point outline is (using approximate dates--this is a high-level discussion):

     

    HUB: YE 2012 UL listing and therefore sales begin. Announced. No sales guidance from mgmt, though, except for fuzzy adjectives.

     

    Automobile s/s: End of Q1 2013 BMW fleet testing begins. Announced? If not, we may find out from Axion during their Q4 2012 conf call at the end of Q1 2013, anyway. If doesn't happen by then, then may not know until the Q1 2013 conf call in mid-May. If testing goes well and BMW places a production order, when do we find out? Q3 or 4, 2013? Other automobile manufacturers: don't know, but probably behind BMW developments and announcements.

     

    Rail: Q1 2013 (NS said "2013" in their sustainability report, and our other info sources have mentioned activity) testing roll-out of the 999. Not announced, but our other info channels provide us updates. 6-12 months of testing. Follow-on orders Q3 or 4 2013? OTR: 6 months or so behind the 999. Other RRs: I'm guessing nothing announced before the 999 testing is complete.

     

    PC: Who the heck knows? Plenty of silence from Axion, Viridity and Rosewater. Assumed to have very slow-moving prospective customers. What are those customers requiring? 6 months of FERC 755 rate experience? 12 months? Federal fiscal clarity? Other snags? PC is a big unknown, seems to me.

     

    Wildcards (e.g., PbC for trucks): by it's nature, very hard to estimate.

     

    Financing: Axion needs more cash by the end of Q1 2013, so an announcement by then. Could happen next week, or, next March. Big unknowns--who, when, how much, terms, why, etc. Seems to me that they would be auto-related, as Axion can supply rail and PC with their current organization. If so, why would someone invest before BMW or another manufacturer commits to big production? As mentioned above, that may not happen until Q3 or 4 of 2013, yet Axion needs more cash well before then.

     

    Maybe the start of fleet testing would be an adequate trigger for some company to invest. If that's true, then the financing may happen at the 11th hour, which is risky, so maybe a "bridge" equity raise to buy some more time?
    8 Nov 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I felt this way after the shareholder's conference. Like you, I'm not letting go; but I can't bring myself to add at this point. If things go well, I've got enough that I'll feel ok even after I've kicked myself.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor: re. the length of time needed by BMW for fleet testing. I think you might be a little optimistic in thinking the testing would produce orders by Q3 or even Q4. I'd like to hear Iindelco's opinion on that if he doesn't mind sharing, since he seems to have the most experience in such matters. Myself, I don't have a better opinion on it than the one Maya reported Bob Averill sharing in the summer of 2011:

     

    "Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry. For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a 'real usage' stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Nov 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, if I recall correctly, Maya also said that it was mentioned at the 2011 annual meeting that auto would be a 2014/15 event.

     

    Didn't believe it would be that far out at the time, but now, I also have no reason to believe that is not accurate.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: take a look at the comments that follow upon Maya's note linked to above. DRich speculates that it means "2014 +/- for the 2015-16 model year," but in the discussion that followed Maya seemed to think this pessimistic. So I doubt the 2014/2015 dating was given at the meeting. Nonetheless, yes, it looks more and more likely.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "I've broached the timing subject several times but was largely ignored. It's been one of the few big weaknesses of what otherwise has been a very helpful blog."

     

    I don't know that your interest was ignored. Rather, given the target markets and NDAs, any time line offered by anyone other than the potential buyers (BMW, NSC, etc.) is speculative as the answer to the question(s) will be determined by the buyers.

     

    If HUB sales are dependent on UL listing, I'm not optimistic it will play a role of any kind this year and possibly not until Q2 or Q3 of 2013. Each sale will represent sale of just 24 PbC batteries for revenue on the order of $11K - $11.5K. Sales of more Net Zero type mini-cubes would mean sale of just 36 PbC batteries for revenue on the order of $16.5K - $17K. Are sales of 50 - 100 of either of those units likely this year?

     

    To me, NSC, PowerCubes and auto S/S offer potential for making a substantial difference before year-end. NSC by taking delivery on the $400K purchase order issued in April. Auto S/S or PowerCubes, either singly or together, are prospective explanations of the activated bio-carbon purchases in May and September. I say auto S/S because IIRC TG said third part testing of PbCs had been undertaken by BMW and could take up to six months or could be terminated earlier if testing was only confirming prior internal BMW testing. Starting date on that 3rd party testing was not mentioned and could have been completed in Q3 with subsequent sale of several hundred batteries for "fleet" testing.

     

    Windpower and solar energy projects could have purchased PowerCubes under NDAs for testing. Industrial firms could have made similar NDA purchases in anticipation of FERC rulings which are now effective. Here again hundreds or thousands of PbC batteries could have been sold or under contract for sale.
    8 Nov 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "Each sale will represent sale of just 24 PbC batteries for revenue on the order of $11K - $11.5K."

     

    That should be light. Axion builds the units. Add enclosure, BMS, safety equipment, ...

     

    RW sells for ~$45K. I don't think, even allowing for installation labor & related, that a 4x mark-up is reflective of what RW will pay Axion. I would suspect maybe 2+/- times purchase cost? That would put revenue to AXPW closer to $20K or so?

     

    Don't forget, Joe Pic is well known and has established contacts and old infrastructure (dealers, distributors, ...) in place that might be utilized again. He's likely to move fast, as evidenced by his past results.

     

    I'd bet a dollar to a do-nut he's got a lot of stuff, including sales, lined up waiting for the dotted line long before UL finishes their job. Then BOOM!

     

    Thinking about it, the fact he could convince TG to build the damn thing may say more than anything else! :-))

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Remember that Axion plans to ultimately outsource the manufacture of the Hub, although they have been vague about exactly when or at what quantity this would need to occur:

     

    From the recent Shareholder's Letter:
    "In answer to anticipated questions about manufacturing capability, let me say that we can supply the short-term needs of RoseWater and its customers. And as for going forward, we have had very encouraging talks with one of the largest outsource supply manufacturers in the world. We made the first REH unit ourselves and have the in-house know-how, space and ability to continue on that path in the near term. We have a continuing dialog with smaller manufacturers, any one of which can satisfy our market requirements for the next 18 months. So whether we go to a large supplier now, or later, we feel our manufacturing plan is a solid one."
    8 Nov 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "That should be light. Axion builds the units. Add enclosure, BMS, safety equipment, ..."

     

    Except, APM's report on September exhibition introducing the HUB included info to effect that Axion built the first HUB inhouse but was evaluating outside contractors for subsequent units. If that plan is followed it means more working capital requirements for Axion and increased stress on the balance sheet unless Axion's agreement with Rosewater includes upfront deposits on HUB orders. And, Axion's net revenue may be little different from PbC sales. Doubling the gross revenue is likely to reduce gross profit margin on HUB sales by half.
    8 Nov 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to Lafferty, Stefan and D-inv for comments about timing.

     

    D-inv: your speculation comment is what someone else said before, which killed the discussion. Like it or not, everyone who invests in a spec stk like this one is speculating. It is by attempting to reason and due dilly thru the speculation that risk can be reduced. AND, learning what other investors are expecting is also very helpful. These two benefits are the investment (vs, say, entertainment and social benefits) value-addeds of this blog.

     

    Auto s/s: so it looks like they're still on track for 2014 or so for the first production orders. D-inv, I'm guessing that very few, if any, other investors expect PbC fleet testing sales to BMW to have occured in Q3 2012. So if that actually happened, it would be material positive news, IMO, including helping a strategic investment get done before end of Q1 2013.

     

    Rail: D-inv, I say the NS 999 battery delivery is already baked in the pps. Of course, if by "substantial difference" you meant in cash flow, I agree.

     

    PC: If we had regular orders, not just testing orders, Axion would have issued a press release. PC is a big swing factor in the pps, IMO, given the bigger unknowns. We hardly know anything about the prospective customers. TG could really make a difference here, if he opens up and has something good to say.
    8 Nov 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    HTL: There may just be a lot of RW sales lined up, but IIRC, Joe P. stated that at first they would go slow, making sure the first 20(?) installations are in place and working flawlessly. So I wouldn't expect significant dollars flowing into Axion via Rosewater early next year.

     

    We, as in this blog and what it has so far learned, just don't know enough yet about residential power systems to proffer anything more than SWAGs. What I am reading, thanks to several links provided by us Axionistas, is that there seems to be more than just several businesses entering into this nascent yet budding niche industry.

     

    ####

     

    Lafferty, D-inv, Stephan, jpau and Mr Investor: My hopeful guess, for what it's worth, is that the earliest we "could" see PbC commercial production for stop/start is the 2014 model year. It all depends on how fast and how long BMW (and the Asian OEM) performs fleet testing. It's a great question to ask TG next week: How long will the BMW fleet testing take? Along with a few other follow-ups.

     

    We have to remember that the 2014 model year actually (or typically) starts in autumn 2013. So, it looks more and more that if BMW does use the PbC, it will occur in the 2015 model year. I sure do wish I had a way to learn about bills of lading, e.g. shipments made overseas from Axion.

     

    Please don't shoot the SWAG-ing messenger.

     

    And also don't forget that TG during the last CC said that there are dozens of bids and proposals out there, and I would expect that since, many more have been made.

     

    It's going to be interesting to see the breakdown of PbC versus LABs revenue next week. I'm quite positive we'll see a nice % YoY 3rd quarter increase over last year's 3rd quarter.
    8 Nov 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, I've posted on this a few times. Here's one time from the brand x board. I still think it holds pretty true but since we still don't have a partner and so the process is delayed you can pretty much move all the dates out one year.

     

    IINDelco . Sep 29, 2011 3:03 PM .

     

    For automotive it depends. I liked the Exide relationship for a couple of reasons.

     

    1) The road to certification is a long one with tons of effort recorded on many more tons of paperwork that is very complex to follow for virgins. With Exide as an interested party being a seasoned automotive interest they would be a fine mentor. Now with the relationship somewhat strained will East Penn suffice?

     

    2) I don't think Axion has the capital or the resources to be a tier one supplier to the auto industry. Nor does it seem they wish to be in such a position. Most likely they also realize it. As such they need partners that have tier one relationships.

     

    For automotive I'm putting the highest possibility at 2014 MY (Model Year) at the soonest. I thought 2013 a while back as a higher possibility but its slipping away. Why? They need to PPAP (Production Part Approval Process) their supply base, the carbon electrode line and the final assembly line for the batteries. They need capacity as one electrode line would probably not be enough to support even one reasonably sized platform. And they need to validate the final product via validation testing which includes lab and real world testing.

     

    Could they catch the 2013 MY cycle with a niche vehicle.....perhaps. And a niche vehicle might just be best for all the parties concerned.

     

    So 1.5 years +

     

    De nada.

     

    P.S. This is actual production timing which is not to be confused with the timing for a contract win which would come sooner.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    MrI ... :-) we are not far apart on questions of timing. I'm no less impatient now than I have been in the past regarding better definition of timeline on auto S/S and RR efforts. I just no longer expect TG or anyone else at Axion to provide ANY information on those timelines since they either don't know themselves or have committed to Axion customers not to disclose customer proprietary information. :-) I am almost as unhappy about this situation as I am about the November 6 election outcomes, but not quite.

     

    On NS999 battery purchase "already baked in the pps", I would agree if we were talking about the $.40 - $.45 price range prevailing around the time of Axion's PR on the contract. I think the current low price is in part due to continuing non-delivery of those batteries and failure of Q1 and Q2 revenues to track with expectations with trebling suggested by TG in the year-end CC. I was thinking in terms of cash flow in my earlier comments on the delivery making a difference, but I also expect it will rebuild confidence somewhat in a continuing long-term relationship with NSC.

     

    I don't personally expect Q3 sales to BMW for fleet testing, but do consider it a possibility contributing element in accounting for the 4K - 12K PbC battery sales I DO look for in Q3 reporting. I don't look for recording of sales to NSC until Q4. PowerCube sales for testing or testing sales to a railroad other than NSC I believe are more likely explanations for Axion's September 360 ctn order of bio-carbon.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    One added point. Some of the vehicle timing mentioned in recent articles seems to be pointing more toward the 2015/16 time frame. But this is a very incomplete picture so I wouldn't place too much of a bet on it.

     

    Whatever comes to pass Axion will not be able to hide it if it's going to happen. The event would be far larger than Axion in scale. They'd have to do a PR about a future contract for "a top X automaker" with such and such agreement with the automaker and the partner(s). This probably wants to happen at least 1.5 years before the contract SOP as a absolute minimum. Thus we have TG looking for a partner. A little automaker help would be huge but I think it's early.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, An outside job shop would be so much more efficient than Axion in putting these units together. Once Axion is sure that they have all the bugs worked out and have a solid product they should get it outsourced. The fact that they have this pretty much quoted/lined up tells me they are well aware of this fact.

     

    They also might have shops lined up in different markets depending on import/export rules/costs and time delays. There isn't much work content in the power HUB as an assembly.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Hey D-inv, thanks for your thoughts.

     

    I'm especially intrigued with your expectations for PbC battery sales in Q3 2012. If you would elaborate on your calculations/thinking, that would be great.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "I'm especially intrigued with your expectations for PbC battery sales in Q3 2012. "

     

    Thinking on Q3 PbC sales is laid out in multiple APC 171 posts. HTL or Bang (I think) tried to educate me at one point on how to post direct links to individual APC posts but I was/am too slow on the uptake to absorb. The sales estimates hang on the hook of two identical purchases from Kurray chemical (?) of 360 cartons of activated bio-carbon 3 1/2 months apart plus estimates calculated earlier by others of the number of PbC batteries that amount of carbon would support. I don't see Axion unnecessarily tying up $200K - $400K in carbon or carbon electrode inventory and presume the first 360 ctns were used in production for battery sales.
    8 Nov 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Appreciate your thoughts as always, Iindelco.
    8 Nov 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    jpau, thanks for the link to your post-shareholder conference. I think your summary back then was right on.

     

    At this point, I think fleet testing for BMW is going to be a 2013 thing which would seem to make the 2015 model year the best we can hope for (announcement might come by year-end 2013?).

     

    I think Norfolk Southern is going to be spending 2013 testing the 999 and out hope should be to see additional orders by year-end 2013 (over the road to lag by 6-12 months).

     

    My guess on Residential Hub sales is if we're lucky, there might be a press release on the first installation before year-end. I'd then guess we'd see a dozen or two in Q1 and that would be a good result. If it's a well-received product maybe a few hundred could be sold in 2013.

     

    As far as the PC goes, I think people are being pessimistic about that. Remember, that probably 1,000 PbC batteries were sold in Q2 (assuming $400k of the $600k in non-East Penn business). You'd think that that represents 20-50 different orders. My guess is that a lot of them are related to PC applications. My great hope is that we'll see an announcement for a PC-size order by year-end 2012 and by the second half of next year these announcements will be a monthly thing.

     

    Also, I've been studying the carbon purchase discussion carefully. My guess is that we shouldn't read into it that there's been some dramatic increase in sales.

     

    In summary, I'm very concerned about the upcoming fund-raise. I think TG will get it done by the end of January but that only gives him three months to make something happen and I don't see those somethings as being enough to prevent this round from adding 40-50m shares which to me is extremely disappointing. I make my upside calculations based on 200m shares outstanding and fear it could be 250m. Given the story here, Axion will likely go down as one of the most poorly promoted companies of this era.
    8 Nov 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    Further NS SWAG:

     

    We get trickles of anecdotal info from the Altoona shops or the wtb's source.

     

    Otherwise we don't receive much info on the NS999 until next year's sustainability report and hopefully at the same time we receive an order to produce a meaningful 'sample size' number of NS999 clones. How big would the meaningful number of NS999s be? 5? 10? 15? 20?

     

    In the meantime I would be more than happy with a steady trickle of HUB orders and continued LAB orders.

     

    D
    9 Nov 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >D.McHattie ... The number would probably be 10 for demonstrators, but 5 would count as meaningful.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    My own 2 cents and all IMHO,
    RAILROAD
    I think we get an NS order for the hybrid road locomotive batteries for testing within next four months.

     

    I'm guessing NS 999 testing will take until about August 2013 before a larger fleet test of other yard locomotives is announced.

     

    I think we may also see a sale to another locomotive manufacturer i.e. Brookville during CY 2013 for testing.

     

    PC
    ??? An enigma.
    Wonder if the revenue from the FR, peak shaving, etc. are proving as hoped?
    If the PbC is as good as advertised and has a price advantage over the other chemistries with similar performance characteristics, I was thinking we already would have had some orders.

     

    AUTO

     

    I'm not expecting anything before 2015 MY for a PbC roll out in a new model.

     

    However, what has me more intrigued is what TG mentioned in the last CC about the PbC as a drop in replacement. Thinking that would occur sooner than in new car.

     

    Rosewater
    I'm hoping that UL listing comes before end of CY. January- March for initial roll out and testing and then sell 100-150 in CY 2013. Just my expectation. I'm looking forward to the results from the Ontario testing as that could be another opportunity.

     

    OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
    Class 8 Trucks - ?
    We don't know what those dozens of other NDA's are. Again that danged divorce of ownership and control.

     

    I've been trying to rationalize what is going to keep us from getting sales and what would prevent Axion from continuing as a going entity.
    - the "just good enough" AGM for stop-start
    - the PbC testing in auto's doesn't achieve the desired results
    - overcome by another technology
    - don't have turnkey operation, such as GE has, for installations where the PC would be used.
    - the HUB proves to be a too expensive gadget
    - the military zero energy building PC doesn't live up to expectations
    - NS finds a cheaper and better alternative chemistry
    - NS testing on OTR locomotive finds fuel savings not as good as expected.
    - can't find further financing after next round

     

    However, in light of the above pitfalls, I think that NS and BMW have invested too much money not to be seriously interested in the technology and there would have to be a real unexpected problem to back off now, and I think the chance of that problem occurring grows more remote with each day. If things keep building with them, we shouldn't have any problems with obtaining further financing.

     

    For me, the big question is the success of the PC. Would like for this be a large source of revenue, but again it seems to be a big mystery. Would like to see TG address how he views the short run potential for PC sales at the CC. If there are no PC sales within next several months, I would think someone would have to provide some answers to shareholders.

     

    THE CC
    Not expecting much as far as continued growth of LA battery sales or PbC sales. Don't expect much to change from last CC and for there just to be updates. Any positive news welcome, i.e. a large investors such as the Quandt family, East Penn and Misui - a dream team.

     

    The foundation is getting layed brick by brick but it is taking a long time.
    Unfortunately I will miss the CC.

     

    9 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "The only metric I am interested in is the field trial of the new NS 999."

     

    I'm definitely interested in seeing a new NS 999 in public view and the subsequent field trial, but I'm just as, if not more, interested in solid reports of PbC sales for PowerCubes and HUBs.
    8 Nov 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    16,000 brand new cars, and 250,000 cars in total destroyed by Sandy:

     

    http://on-msn.com/S0Pz8S
    8 Nov 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Yep, And they just let them sit there knowing it was coming. If they didn't have insurance I bet tons of them would have been moved.
    8 Nov 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    I had a discussion with a friend the other day about this. He has property along NC's coast and so I asked if he had any feel about insurance rules that would allow the insurance companies not to pay. Specifically, I was asking if you were in a situation where you were told there was a mandatory evacuation of an area and, you decided to stay, and by staying your life or your car were lost. Could the insurance company refuse to pay on life or auto policies because you chose not to follow the evacuation notice? I'm not talking about people who were required to stay because of their work (i.e. hospital staff, 1st responders, etc). But if you just decided you didn't want to leave, should the insurance company be liable? He didn't have an answer, but thought it was an interesting question.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    A former coworker's husband works on the Newark Docks. Tough job, tough bosses, corruption, etc. Not his dock where the Fiskars blew but one over. His dock was empty and unloaded so they spent 1 day driving cars a few miles away into some massive parking lots. He knows of approximately 50 cars that were driven away before the storm and then returned and put in the middle of cars that got swamped. Like all these cars they will go totaled auctions with a dirty title. The people who know the VINs on these will watch for these specific cars and buy them for parts. Not a bad way to get a car if you are going to drive it and not plan on selling it.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I've obviously been thinking the same. And I don't have an answer.

     

    When it looked like Sandy was going to hit the Virginia Maryland area hard I had my son, staying at an apartment in the area, investigate the local topography for higher ground where he could walk back to his apartment within a few miles after parking the car. He spent 3 hours or so a few days beforehand.

     

    Plan A was to drive inland worse case.

     

    Plan B was to park the car where it had the highest probability of not getting flooded.

     

    Obviously tracing the weather drove the decision.

     

    It's not right to have society (your micro society insurance plan) pick up the tab because you don't want to be inconvenienced. You can't save everything but you have to manage what you can. Obviously, as you suggest, each persons situation is unique.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    If you had a large enough waterproof tarp, you could drive the car onto it, then gather up and securely tie all the sides and corners together ... then if it's just simple flooding (ie no crashing waves with embedded debris) then when the water rises (and if integrity of the tarp/barrier isn't compromised) the car should stay dry...
    8 Nov 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    One other thing to keep in mind, is that there might be a lot of people who are going to get a "big" surprise when they try and collect insurance on their damages and find out that they aren't covered because they don't have flood insurance. So if FEMA doesn't step in for those people, they might have complete losses because if they don't have flood insurance the insurance companies don't have to pay damages.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, Very unfortunate indeed. I feel very sorry for folks that get such curve balls thrown at them.

     

    48, I'll have to see if Hefty has a zip lock bag for that. I'd want the sure seal (double seal) that changes color when sealed though! ;)
    8 Nov 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, I guess it does sound a bit ridiculous, but seriously, I imagine something like that could be made and sold for a couple hundred dollars (similar to inflatable pools) and could potentially save (in the right conditions) an asset worth many thousands of dollars...
    8 Nov 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    48, It's not so ridiculous. But you'd need some pretty strong material and you'd have to tie the vehicle down so it didn't float or get washed away. Then the debis etc.

     

    By the time you made it sturdy enough I'm guessing a bit higher on the price.
    8 Nov 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that if your car is floating so is your house. Better to not be in that area at all.
    8 Nov 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Yep Maya. Fisker lost 320! They are still celebrating.

     

    http://smrt.io/TxY0tT
    8 Nov 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: I had wondered as much, if that was the port Fisker used. $32M's worth...that at least didn't blow up.

     

    Nice check coming from the insurance company.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    ... with no chance of future warranty claims.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Springer , "are buyers and sellers simply exhausted"
    I know I am, and for now I am just a waiter
    A sad day for AXPW when we line up at .2552, identical with ZBB.
    Looks like Q1 for anything with substance out of Newcastle
    8 Nov 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    JR, Your nearsightedness is pretty good for an original investor.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    I think sellers at the present price level are exhausted. There are a few more buyers at low prices (TB @ .25 for instance) and there are some MM games in play. I placed a bid for 5K AON @ .256 around 12:15 - 12:30 which has not executed while trades for 3K, 2K and 2K occurred later at @ .2552 according to http://bit.ly/TxODKI
    8 Nov 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Thanks for the confirmation. I'd been suggesting that we might have MMs playing with us, but only few apparent confirmations.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Am I wrong to think that the profit from these trades is sooo small that it seems silly to think that MM are making any significant money in constantly flipping AXPW stock? Surely there are more profitable stock situations out there?
    8 Nov 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >AlbertinBermuda ... So any rational person might think but there exists a cadre of folks here that think a trader (or a Market Maker that might be exempt from fee) might be willing to flip for $0.0001 in an illiquid stock like Axion. I'd think it a bad bet. Stranger things happen though.
    8 Nov 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Albert: Don't forget a couple of things. First the MMs make a fee from the exchanges for every trade they make. Second, they are uniquely positioned to see deeper into at least their own order book and can see at least those arbitrage opportunities. Third, they live on volume.

     

    So, between exchange fees and even fractional pennies profit on each trade they make something. And maybe a lot if volume is high enough. Last, many are arms of brokerages and there can be intra-broker trades in which the broker makes fees on both sides of the trade. Their MM arm enables that. Even if they don't make much in trade profit, they may make quite a bit on the trade from the broker's fees.

     

    I'm fairly confident many of the MMs exist only to increase the brokerage profits. I *suspect* that's why sometimes we see trades that ought to be executed get bypassed - MMs trying to get both sides of a trade in-house. ETrade started doing this sometime in the last year. They used to send my trades to AUTO and now they stay at Etrade's MM and often don't get executed when they should. When I call, "No matching trade came into our OTC desk".

     

    If being an MM wasn't so profitable, we wouldn't have so many registered.

     

    http://bit.ly/xDSLL3

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Computers work very cheaply and with little human interaction.
    8 Nov 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Well, I have a harder time believing any retail investor would do so for the volumes they might trade.

     

    Who makes fees from exchanges for "providing liquidity"? Who makes fees if a trade is done? The broker that owns the MM if at least one side of the trade is from the broker's customer.

     

    Looking only at volume and 1/100th of a penny is looking at a very small part of the picture.

     

    MMs ain't what they used to be, just like the market isn't either.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Maybe its part of a trainee program??
    8 Nov 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Albert: Could be.

     

    But consider. A particular MM may handle hundreds or thousands of stocks a day. For each instrument, trades from just a few a day to multiple thousands a day. They may not have as much concern for profit on each trade as they do for *aggregate* profit for each day.

     

    Pick any reasonable number 100K, 1MM, ... times >= $0.0001 (and this would be the exception I think), add in fees from the exchanges, add in fees to the broker, ...

     

    Now, cost of $ is low. Computers do most of the work even if supervised by a h00m0n, ...

     

    Volume is their life-blood and profit per trade may be of little consequence to them. I don't know.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    I only know that I find 200 and 300 share trades in a $.25 - $.30 per share stock a bit strange. Paying a transaction fee on a $50, 200 share acquisition or sale does not seem very rational unless the transaction fee washes within the buyer's (seller's) own pockets.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    D-inv---Unfortunately, the pps and Level II are showing no signs of selling exhaustion. I'll be pleasantly surprised if 25 cents holds this time---there has been steady offer reduction for awhile now, almost no bounce days, and the conf call is still a week away.

     

    I think your bid problem was with AON. I never saw your bid on Level II, and when I placed a 5k regular one at the same price, it immediately appeared. I also bought 5k at the offer, and sold 5k at the ask, and no problemo.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "I think your bid problem was with AON."

     

    There could have been a mismatch between buy and sell AON bid/ask. At any rate, my bid was filled at $.255 late in afternoon, $.005 below my offer.
    8 Nov 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: MMs pay no xact fee I think. They get paid for xacts.

     

    But your mention of the fees normal traders and investors would pay is spot on. But you have to keep in mind that those small transactions are most likely partial fills on larger orders. So those are not likely retail traders or investor actions, but MM actions.

     

    Regardless, the fees consideration would seem to suggest we have more market-maker involvement than folks want to accept.

     

    I have no way to know, but there's a certain logic based on a long period of digging I have done. Unfortunately, there's multiple logics possible, many as likely as one I might favor.

     

    As an example, I've watched instructional videos by a guy who teaches trading and he discusses things such as we see right now as "market maker accumulation" and states categorically that when you see this and some following patterns price *will* go up as the market-maker then unloads what he bought for a nice profit.

     

    I don't know how much credence to give because I don't know if he's talking old markets where people were more involved than computers and actually "made the market", a la "specialists", or if his information addresses current market behavior and mechanics.

     

    I don't discount it though. I just keep it in mind.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Price pessimists take heart! If I throw out an offer that is taken odds are that the price will move lower and if not taken it is almost a sure bet the share price is off and running away from me.
    8 Nov 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    Well.... there goes my Oct.1 bottom call. Who's got dibbs at .25 again?
    8 Nov 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    Turtle if you're out there... you might be called upon.
    8 Nov 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Still lurking at $.25...

     

    Hit $.251, then bounced.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    It's quite a burden TB.

     

    http://bit.ly/RL9U3N
    8 Nov 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    10 Reasons: Take Control of the Grid with the Joule.System™

     

    Ten reasons why you should take control of the smart grid by implementing Demand Energy's advanced Joule.System™, an intelligent electricity storage solution.

     

    http://bit.ly/TO7UtI
    8 Nov 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    White & Case Energy October 2012 Storage Report -

     

    http://bit.ly/SGSe8A
    8 Nov 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It's very encouraging when the biggest law firm in the world starts promoting its expertise in the energy storage sector.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi JP,
    Reminds me about a story of a small town that had one poor lawyer. The only work he could get was making wills and such. Then one day another lawyer moved to town, they both became rich!! ;-0 Sorry JP, I couldn't resist telling my only lawyer joke.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I've got dozens of them, but my favorite is an epic shaggy dog story my wife Rachel likes to tell of a traveling salesman who gets busted in a small Texas town for having unlawful relations with a goat. At his arraignment the judge offers him a choice between the public defender who's best at arguing the law and the public defender who's best at picking a jury. He chooses the lawyer who's best at picking the jury.

     

    At trial, the sheriff provides a compelling eyewitness account of the event and on cross examination he explains that after the deed was done the goat helped the defendant with some housekeeping issues. At that point the jury foreman elbows the juror next to him and observes "a good goat 'll do that."

     

    As you can imagine, it's one of those stories that can be changed in an infinite variety of details to suit the mood and blood alcohol level of the audience.

     

    I suppose the part I like best is that it shows why you want a lawyer who's good at his craft.
    9 Nov 2012, 04:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (XIDE): Exide Technologies Announces Plans to Idle Lead Recycling Operations in Reading, PA

     

    "This decision was based on several factors including the dramatic swings in the lead market and the high capital investment needed, due to regulatory requirements, to remain operational in Reading, ...".

     

    "A total of 150 employees will be impacted by the idling".

     

    http://bit.ly/WKrcUw

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I have a sense that Exide may file a pretty solid report this quarter.

     

    As a large accelerated filer, Exide must have its 10-Q to the SEC this evening. It's not holding its conference call till Monday morning.

     

    The typical format when companies are going to have a bad quarter is to file on a Friday and then hold a late conference call. Filing on Friday, giving the market a weekend to think and then talking on Monday is unusual.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    hoped to see Axion at the http://bit.ly/TeLdwR but there not. I hope they are to busy closing deals :)
    9 Nov 2012, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    11/8/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from my instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 32400, Vol 184350, AvTrSz: 5586
    Min. Pr: 0.2510, Max Pr: 0.2645, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2552
    # Buys, Shares: 12 34400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2575
    # Sells, Shares: 21 149950, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2546
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.36 (18.7% “buys”), DlyShts 5300 (2.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.53%

     

    On the traditional TA front, our lows continue to honor the descending support line of the trading channel we re-entered. AFAICT, that's $0.251. RSI still just atop oversold at 30.07, down from yesterday's 30.16. MFI and stochastic in oversold and %K is curling up preparing to cross above the %D line. A near-term descending trend resistance will intersect the descending channel support in two days and we will have a break one way or the other I think – possibly before the intersection occurs. With (now) three instances of support demonstrated at $0.25 (but the third is current price level and support is not yet confirmed), there's a decent chance the break will be up. However, we know the current action doesn't conform to “decent” expectations and we don't know what or who is driving price action right now. So I'm not placing any bets.

     

    If our action is caused by active traders, or computers, that look at TA there's a chance that they see this as their entry point. If it's driven by MM activity, who can naked-short with impunity, I don't have any idea if they want price up or down from here. With the daily short sales continuing to fall off the cliff, percentage-wise and by volume, I have no guess as to what's in store.

     

    The only potential bright spots are the near-oversold and oversold conditions I've mentioned and the fact that my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger has now been pushed by price 14 days. Within this trading channel the longest period for this condition was 1 days (9/10-10/1) and was ended at these price levels and followed by a subsequent push up to the $0.32-$0.34 range for the highs 10/8-10/10/17.

     

    On my experimental charts front, average trade size remains around, but below, the averages and buy:sell percentage continues to deteriorate. That percentage is nearing an all-time (since Feb. When I started tracking) low, 6.4% on 4/10. All the averages are now dropping too, as would be expected now.

     

    The new inflection point calculations continue downward.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff, which I proposed might indicate whether big sellers were present or not (and we don't know if this is valid, although the numbers seen in my instablog suggest it may be), continue to support John's feeling that big sellers were pretty much gone: Nov Avg: 39.73%, min: 3.53%, max: 149.46%. These figures continue to remain low at this time. Details in my instablog.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The incredibly low short percentages for the last three days have me pretty well convinced that the willing sellers who held big blocks of restricted stock are finally zeroed out. Since January of 2010 cumulative trading volume was 170.2 million shares and cumulative short volume was 55.6 million shares (32.7%). My last estimate of the total number of restricted shares that could fill the supply side was 57 million if you made a heroic assumption that all of the big legacy investors wanted to sell. – http://bit.ly/R5OAEA

     

    Over the last few weeks volume has fallen off a cliff. While the 200-day average is about 330,000 shares, the 10-day average is more like 230,000, or about 30% down.

     

    Even when the big uglies were in there selling, we had normal retail buy-sell activity that accounted for about 2/3 of daily volume. I think that trend has stayed stable as the big uglies exited stage right. My sense is the selling pressure we're seeing today is from scared retail - people who fear the next raise or fear seemingly interminable testing and other delays. FDR said it best.

     

    http://bit.ly/Uzt3EI
    9 Nov 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Unusual: ATDF on the bid 154K $0.25, second after CDEL @ $0.255. Also second on the ask @ $2624 63K, second after NITE # $0.26, 18K. The 18K suggests that there is not currently more depth than the 18K, but we can't be sure.

     

    So it seems good support @ $0.25 (plus we have NITE w/5K "standard" there and UBSS with 12K there).

     

    The question, as always: which side of ATDF wants to jump ahead first, bid or ask. And what part of it would move up or down?

     

    Could be a right interesting day.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Primary batteries.

     

    Energizer Closure To Leave 165 People Jobless

     

    "Company spokesman Ken Fields told the Burlington Free Press that people are using fewer lithium batteries these days and the flashlight production will be moved to other Energizer facilities. He says more people are using smartphones with rechargeable batteries. And they're not using multiple devices like a pager and a camera."

     

    http://bit.ly/TfKKKH
    9 Nov 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    interesting standoff between buyers and sellers... been quite the day of people leapfrogging each other... seems more seller leapfrogging than buyers... hope the tide turns with some news heading into the cc... though room climate indicates we don't believe in Christmas anymore... yet have left our stockings up, just in case...
    9 Nov 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that more than a few whos in Who-ville are feeling double-grinched about now, and that's never fun. My hope for Thursday

     

    http://bit.ly/SRjL9y
    9 Nov 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    I can't think of any rational reason to put in a large block for sale at .2502 when there are large offers at .2501 and .25 other than wanting to optimize the pressure on the down side with the shares you hold by scaring people.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Nah, UBS would never do anything like that :-)
    9 Nov 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    Maybe somebody with a lot of shares that wants to buy up the company (technology) cheaply driving the price down? There's a reason for the TFH I wear. :-)
    9 Nov 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, We could conspire to conspire all day long. Someone would obviously recognize that Axion needs to raise capital and given its poor liquidity in the market of late they could perhaps easily walk the price down. I can see no other reason for the recent behavior mentioned above unless we just have a sick mind remaining from some of their past via the litigation or someone that got robbed by some of the pre-Axion thieves.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    From level 2, the trading is insane. How can you have an ask of 13,000@.2502 and a bid of 24,200@.25?

     

    If the 13000 ask really want to sell, he can sell 13,000 @.25 vs .2502.The price difference is only $2.60. How about the buyer???
    9 Nov 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    what are the asks on level II?
    9 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    "There is no ask."
    9 Nov 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Bloodsport.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    offers?
    9 Nov 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    23808, Sometimes I see them hit the bid for a small amount first before they move the ask down. What this does is locks the buyer in to an extent if he's retail because in order to hit the ask they have to pay a double commission.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    TDAmeritrade level 2 at 14:42:21 (They say there is a time delay)
    bids - 5k@.249,5k@.249,5k@.24...
    ASK - 13k@.2502,8500@.255,19...
    9 Nov 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/RNdzy9
    9 Nov 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed and Inndelco

     

    I can't see ANY reason for anyone to be selling at this ridiculous level, sick mind maybe, however, I really don't see anyone wanting a bunch of our shares, when they can wait for the next round of financing and pick them up for less than 20c at this rate.

     

    Unless I have missed something very obvious, we are not even at the point where BMW has recommended us for a year long fleet test (as per Bob Averill comment to Maya).

     

    If this is the case we are "many" financing rounds away from big orders and production, I hope that I am incorrect on this, and Hyundai or Toyota throw a hundred mill at us, but I doubt that is going to happen.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    I know unrelated, but didn't realise GRPN was being pushed off the fiscal cliff 100mill shares and down 30%, if we are really lucky maybe we can ask Santa to deliver the same package to TSLA haha !
    9 Nov 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    100 shares just went @.2502 WTF?
    9 Nov 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    OR, As is often pointed out by HTL and others this is a way to "paint the tape" making it appear the stock is up or down with little investment. As I also have suggested it is a way to lock in an order since a retail investor will not move the price after this event since they already have to pay the commission. It's a mm game. Surely we are not going to pay a commission for a 100 share trade.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    I have NO insight into this process. I am a retired construction worker and only stumbled across this stock via John Petersen's cross posts with Jack Lifton re REE's more than a year ago.

     

    There appears to me to be no logic in the current MM behavior.

     

    So what would be illogical? Maybe as posted earlier there is an entity that is trying to gather shares in AXPW with the active participitation of one or more MM"s? How would I know?

     

    The MM seems to want to sell when they should be buying and vise versa.

     

    From where I sit, with my stash averaged at about $0.40 I don't care about this triviality. All that I can find on the net and see via this site tells me that AXPW is a screaming buy, not a trade but a significant brick upon which to build a substantial buttress for me and my families financial security.

     

    Fussing over 1,000's of a penny is soul destroying and I think that anyone who participates at that level either has too much money or needs a day job!
    9 Nov 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Albert all true. But it's also true that by using certain tactics over a period of time entities can gain advantage even to the point of destroying companies. These entities use many tools to achieve their mission to the detriment of the company, employees and investors. Well documented and many such operations are very successful.

     

    I cannot tell you if that's what's happening here but there is some low level activity that is obvious. I hope for all of our sakes it's not well backed.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    Hi, iindelco:

     

    I understand painting the tape. WRT to "locking the retail guy" with partial fill. I believe this goes on all the time.

     

    However, my third guess would be MM to MM transactions for whatever nefarious reason imaginable.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I am just naive but if Axionists as a group make a stand that the price has gone as low as we are willing to let it and that we will not sell below the current price then the MM's will lose a big part of their market and volume will dry up significantly. With fortitude, diligence and a bit of luck our reluctance to enter the market will force the share price higher.

     

    Anyone on my side?
    9 Nov 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Albert, I think Axionistas as a group are pretty solid. That being said we are all individuals with different needs. Some will want more, some will need cash, some will need tax write offs etc. These are all healthy market actions.

     

    It's the unhealthy player(s) I hate. Could just be a mm trying to fill an order or any number of other things.
    9 Nov 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Albert; nice thought but I suspect that even the amount we hold in aggregate is insufficient to affect all the other shares out there that are being influenced by personal or corporate decision-making considerations.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    " if Axionists as a group make a stand that the price has gone as low as we are willing to let it "

     

    The only way to make that happen, AB, is to place GTC buy orders without limit or very large orders that are upped when shares are purchased.
    9 Nov 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to see a daily short total in the 140,000 share range.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    John: didn't get it, but it does look like its bottomed out - 31790. Although percentage is still low, the volume increase was noticeable.

     

    In thousands: 73.58, 25.78, 10.00, 5.30, 31.79.

     

    Volume 242% of yesterday's and shorts 600% of yesterday's.

     

    Hm ...

     

    I'm wondering if many (most?) of the trades are intra-broker or inter-broker. No shorts then. Also, I wonder if shares are being pre-transferred to the MM that a broker owns (e.g. ETrade's MM is ETRF and another code) for some reason. I've never heard this suggested anywhere and don't even know if it's possible.

     

    But since shares flowing in that backed prior sell orders seems likely insufficient to keep daily short sales this low, I suspect something in my area of ignorance (still very large) is going on.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    John: I know you discount it, but take a look at the OTC short report. Up to 81K now. I know short-trm blips are expected, but combined with being on the Reg SHO threshold list for a lot of August and September, it sure makes my TFH vibrate.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZfThR6

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The new short number was posted on the OTCBB site last night – 3,600 shares at October 31st. It still looks and feels like the bulk of our short selling over the last three years had nothing to do with MM activity and everything to do with stock coming out of restricted form.
    10 Nov 2012, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I checked too early?! Thank goodness! It never occurred to me that it would be so much later than the NASDAQ reports and I didn't notice the date.

     

    Thanks for correcting my oversight!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Nov 2012, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The link you provided updated sometime between 11 p.m. Eastern and now, because it wasn't updated when I woke up.
    10 Nov 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday I placed an AON (one day) order for 5,000 at .25 seeking to emulate TB's strategy. Nothing executed.
    This morning I repeated the order...nothing happened...So, about 2pm (central time) I changed my bid to .26 (WellsFargo only lets me trade in whole pennies).
    Whomever does the buying for me at Wells reached up and gobbled up 5,000 at .2502. Surprised me!
    TimZ
    9 Nov 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    The fiscal cliff is scaring the air out of most speculative stocks.
    Sellers want to be in cash.
    I picked up 5,000 AXPW today @0.25.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    I was able to scarf some up at .25c as well.

     

    We, by definition, have a double-bottom in AXPW. Remember in order to be a true double bottom, the *second* bottom must undercut (in price) the *first* bottom. Sooooo.... it can only get better from here.

     

    That is my happy thought for the day.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, OR. I keep saying I am all done but couldn't resist .2502. I'll call them trading shares. I can rationalize anything.
    10 Nov 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    if they want cash, they sell some other stock... not AXION with todays action totals 120.000...thats peanuts. You know what Buffet says...sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone is selling. You might catch a falling knife but the rewards can be massive... My average price is .36 and im adding small chunks because i know/belive/hope that TG and AXION will deliver!
    9 Nov 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): I have a theory (whodda guessed that?).

     

    Are we seeing a repeat of last years tax-related action, which I still believe was a factor. And ...

     

    Recall that this theory *may* be supported by the fact ths Special Situations exited and then came back in.

     

    This time: higher cap gains coming and taking losses now yields a better tax situation. Ditto with taking profits, although I doubt that applies ATM.

     

    Step 2: folks want the tax advantages but realize that the stock, not the compnay is broken, based on increased revenues, irons in the fire, ....

     

    So if I want the tax advantages but don't want to miss all the upside, what do I do, knowing there's a report coming that might have again better revenues and maybe some more positive guidance about expectations?

     

    I get out now so that I can buy back after thirty days, if things are favorable, before too much of the upsdie that *might* come occurs.

     

    Plausible? Left field?

     

    My handicap is I can not imagine any other scenario, other than psychotic vindictiveness (and I doubt there's sufficient wherewithal to do this).

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... "other than psychotic vindictiveness (and I doubt there's sufficient wherewithal to do this)." Have you not been to the message board over on Brand X? Psychotic is no where near being in short supply.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I had no doubt of that - I stopped visiting several boards over there long ago.

     

    The shortage I was thinking might exist would be in funds to support what we've seen. Unless they are masochists and enjoy great pain I have difficulty seeing them accomplish this.

     

    I think there needs to be some advantage to the folks causing this that yields potential gain over time.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    There's always whoever the trolls on the Yahoo! MB are working for.

     

    Someone was spending an enormous amount of energy bashing Axion on that board, IMO trying to kill the company. Whether it's a competitor or some financial gambit, it is clear that someone desperately wants AXPW dead.

     

    With a raise coming up, anyone who wants to kill the company would try to drive the price as low as possible in an effort to finish off Axion right here.

     

    Of course this is all completely crazy, and for all we know TG will come through with a strategic partner.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Good points HTL.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I left for that reason and can't imagine it's gotten better but can imagine it getting worse.

     

    I think some of our visitors come from there on occasion as well. They don't contribute much and if they do they don't last long for obvious reasons. They tend to drool on themselves pretty quickly.
    9 Nov 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    billa: this actually sounds possible. My sixth sense tells me AXPW has a truly "disruptive" technology. There'd have to be opposition.
    9 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    on top of that I doubt many of the uppities like the idea of a bunch of retail investing half-wits (we must be) entering their class via an elephant takedown.
    9 Nov 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Really though it does not matter. The thing can double or triple and I will barely claw my way out of poverty or I can lose it all, remain in poverty and live like a king under my White House savior, sending my children to the most elite schools all on the dime of whoever is thieving my money right now, so he can go suck an egg...I can't lose, thank you Robin Obama.
    9 Nov 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    JAK: Don't forget the free cell phone!

     

    Got to stay connected when your in abject poverty, ya' know?

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "So if I want the tax advantages but don't want to miss all the upside, what do I do, knowing there's a report coming that might have again better revenues and maybe some more positive guidance about expectations?"

     

    Thanks for the thoughts, HTL. There are other scenarios that suggest setup of a roller coaster share price ride over the remainder of the year is underway. Many people hold shares through multiple vehicles, i.e. - taxable and nontaxable accounts, personal accounts and accounts managed for children, personal accounts and company accounts, etc. People could be selling out taxable accounts or their own personal accounts for tax losses and buying them back in tax sheltered accounts or accounts of their children in anticipation of a positive Q3 report to position for sale of new account holdings with gains and possible opportunity to re-purchase through original holding account more than 30 days after sale. Thinking about it now I wonder if "the wash rule" applies to individuals or to married couples filing jointly but maintaining separate brokerage accounts.
    9 Nov 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "... applies to individuals or to married couples filing jointly but maintaining separate brokerage accounts".

     

    Great question. Sounds like one of those "consult you tax attorney" questions.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I haven't practiced tax law in three decades, but the general rule is if rates are expected to increase, you sell the winners this year and pay the lowest tax rate possible while saving your losers for next year when the loss will be worth more.
    10 Nov 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like