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  • Ta Dahhh!
    10 Nov 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Bridesmaid.
    10 Nov 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • blood!
    10 Nov 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • A few weeks ago, Morningstar updated its report on Norfolk Southern Corp. After recent declines in the stock price it is now into 5 Star territory (Morningstar’s highest rating).


    There’s some info in the report as well as a link to a very interesting (2 year old – apologies if it’s been posted before and I just missed it) interview with the CEO that I thought would be interesting to this board.


    First, M-Star’s big concerns are the company’s dependence on coal (single largest source of traffic at 31%) and its vulnerability to recession (19% drop in volume in ’08 although the company remained profitable!). Nevertheless, M-Star considers NS to be one of the best-run and most disciplined railroads.


    Morningstar mentioned that CEO Wick Moorman has a background in technology (he’s an engineer who started his career in track operations at NS and eventually served as VP of IT at the company, a company with a long history of being a technology innovator. Below is a link to a long interview with Moorman (Railway Age Railroader of the year for 2011).


    The article discusses electrification several times. It’s an interesting read.



    See page 40 for a brief discussion of the Battery Management System and more on page 41 about long-haul electrification.


    Reading the whole article gives you a flavor for the company and the CEO. It’s clear that he’s very knowledgeable about “our” project and from the way he is talking about it, it’s clear they expect it to succeed.
    10 Nov 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • ApMarshall: Thanks. After reading the whole sustainability report, I was quite enthusiastic about (NSC). I'm off to read this one too.


    If any dry powder is around me when the pps hits where I think it might, I'd like to acquire some and throw it in a drawer.


    10 Nov 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • His focus on BMS issues highlights the reason Axion makes such a big deal about the long-string behavior of the PbC. If you need to actively manage each battery in a string and control the amount of current flowing into and out of each battery, the BMS software and hardware gets very complex very quickly. If the batteries manage themselves, life is good. It's nice to be King (in a string).


    The key point on string behavior is that it's a challenge in every installation and the bigger the installation the bigger the challenge.
    10 Nov 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • "One of the visions we have long-term, and Altoona is a great example of it, is putting one of these battery locomotives—all-battery slugs, if you will—between two road locomotives, and you go up the mountain at Altoona with the battery locomotive churning away, adding to the horsepower. And then you go all the way down the hill on the other side and charge it back up. That’s a territory where we’re pushing a lot of trains in both directions. So, maybe we can do some innovative things there."


    This leads me to believe that they are just as serious about these Over The Road electric locomotives as they are about the yard switchers.


    For some reason, I had thought the OTR was much more speculative and of questionable value. Sure seems like the CEO of NS disagrees.


    Won't it be awesome when we start getting data in from both the NS999 switcher and this OTR? You think we get a lot of comments per day NOW...?


    10 Nov 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • " If you need to actively manage each battery in a string and control the amount of current flowing into and out of each battery, the BMS software and hardware gets very complex very quickly."


    While I'm not familiar with the Axion BMS that's not how typical EV BMS's function, they do not actively control current flow in and out of a cell string during use. They monitor voltage and temperature during use and if there is any anomaly they signal the main control board, and during charging they will bleed off excess charge from any high cells, which top balances the pack. Some may shuttle charge to other cells. The point is the BMS does not handle high current loads or control current flow to individual cells or batteries, other than during finish charging which is low current, and I'd doubt the Axion system would either.
    11 Nov 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Start-stop on locomotives ... how much of a competition for the NS-999 in the switcher market?


    We see (and applaud?) ICE improvements challenge the EV story ...


    Got this message from an email list I'm on:


    "Ohio Locomotive Works has started a facebook page. Follow along as the next Lean and Green Locomotive is built. With in the next 2 months construction will begin on 2 more units plus 2 other projects turning older locomotives into useful "green" products.
    These are not Genset builds! We feel we have a better answer than another genset. Tier 4i without after treatment!


    Facebook page:


    Tech page on their website:


    Newspaper article on a delivery:


    All I've got so far ... know nothing of their financing or competition.
    10 Nov 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • I don't understand this at all. It claims a 78% reduction in fuel but I did not see where it explained how.


    The technology page says the main engine is still a diesel.


    So what am I missing?


    10 Nov 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • View of steel billet added to floor for more weight.


    At least we have one app where we don't have to listen to the crowing about weight reduction while hearing nuttin about cost (Well other than the cost reduction is just around the corner.) :)
    10 Nov 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • D.Mc < So what am I missing?


    "The fuel savings come with the ability to shut the engine down and restart it as needed, reducing idle time needed by traditional diesel engines."
    10 Nov 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • But, D-inv, NS already has over 2,000 locomotives with idle stop-start, the sustainability report tells us this.


    Which kinda raises the question as to what conversations axion has had with NS regarding their stop/start.


    But I'm also still wondering how this 'lean and green locomotive' reduces diesel consumption by 78% - surely it isn't stop/start alone.


    10 Nov 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • I dont have a handy link, but I've read a couple reports and articles that say the typical switcher spends twenty percent of its time working and eighty percent idling.
    10 Nov 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • "But, D-inv, NS already has over 2,000 locomotives with idle stop-start, ..."


    I thought the article was about a local, mid-west company serving a niche market rather than about NS.
    10 Nov 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks D-inv. So what kind of battery system do the stop-start locos have?
    12 Nov 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • >D Lane ... Lead Acid Batteries



    Almost no one in the railroad business has upgraded the batteries in use for any particular application. The only exception, but I'd call this demonstration, is the drayage for dock & mill switchers where gensets are the dominate upgrade path.
    12 Nov 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, DRich. So I take it they have to replace the LABs very frequently?
    12 Nov 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • >DLane ... 3 to 5 years is about average, so I understand. You have to remember these are not autos. Locomotives have few ancillary loads or creature comforts and have 130 kW alternators to recharge with. Stops can be from, say, 20 minutes to a hour-or-so and they don't shutdown every time is comes to a halt for coupling.
    12 Nov 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Thats very clear. Thank you!
    12 Nov 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • One of the quotes in the interview about managing the string sounded almost exactly the same as a quote in the sustainability report. Given how strong the PbC is with its self-balancing, I wonder why the BMS is so hard. Imagine how long it'd take NS if they were designing a BMS for 900 LI batteries and what kind of engineering issues they'd have to prevent battery failures from causing fires. Presumably that'd have been a huge issue for a company as focused on safety as NS.
    10 Nov 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • It's more like 7,500 lithium-ion cells. The biggest cells I've heard about for lithium-ion are 20 Ah at 3 volts. So would take about 15 big cells to get 70 Ah at 12 volts.
    10 Nov 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, but once we get volume production the price will drop like a rock. It's coming err during the next administration.


    Now on to the cheap REE presentation.


    Molycorp's shares plunge on SEC investigation

    10 Nov 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Good for Lynas, now that LAMP has the green light from the Malay courts.
    10 Nov 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • " I wonder why the BMS is so hard."


    Two possibilities occur to me - 1) Maintaining a constant discharge voltage out of PbCs and 2) perhaps development of a hybrid battery system for ELs with the PbC standing between regenerative braking power generated and a more energy dense but less DCA capable battery chemistry. The latter possibility of course would reduce the volume of PbC batteries needed for RR applications.
    10 Nov 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • I'm running 100ah lithium cells in my car, I've seen them up to 1000ah's.
    11 Nov 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • LAB city car


    Romet 4E Brings Poland Onto Global Electric Car Stage

    10 Nov 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: the application seems to me to be a PbC candidate due to the intent of urban usage, where I would anticipate a lot of starting and stopping. If the cars could do regen braking, might have the same range as with traditional LABs but a much longer battery life. Recharge faster too. Add in potential faster acceleration possible with higher PbC-enabled current discharge rates, ...


    Details would need to be worked out, but potentially less weight of the PbC might yield other improvements - lighter chassis could be used and range might meet or exceed range with traditional LABs.


    Since there won't be a lot of content ... and would it need to pass the "airport test"?


    Our energy content might be lower but with all the above ...?


    10 Nov 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • I don't see how a PbC makes any sense in this case. Lower energy density and high self discharge does not make for an efficient EV.
    11 Nov 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3, My definition of efficiency is total cost of ownership Thus as mass market vehicles PHEV's and HEV's don't make significant sense to me in most cases. But there are exceptions in niches.


    Light electrification to treat the vehicle like a micro grid does however make significant sense. Makes sense to actively control functions and down size the engine


    But significant savings is also coming from more intelligent purchasing as well. The days of "Yank Tank" grocery haulers never made sense in the first place.
    11 Nov 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • "Lower energy density and high self discharge does not make for an efficient EV. "


    Lower energy density property is countered to some degree by capacity to deliver power to lower SOC without damaging the battery service life. "high self discharge" is a relative judgment. High relative to what? PbCs retain charge much better than some battery chemistries and not as well as others. PbC self discharge over a weekend would be little more than FLABs or AGMs. And, PbCs might perform better in Poland's cold winters than conventional LABs of any type, despite the higher PbC self discharge rate.
    11 Nov 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Good points. Plus the longer service life of the PbC would lessen range loss over time. The question is does all that make up for the lower energy density? That vehicle comes with a 16.5kWh pack, in the same volume a PbC pack might be maybe 60% of that, 9.9kWh. Assuming we use 70% of the lead pack and 90% of the PbC pack we get 11.55kWh and 8.91kWh useable. I don't know if those numbers are accurate but there may be a point where useable capacity converges. The issue may be that you could probably replace the FLAB pack 3 times or more for the price of the PbC pack.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3: I think that they must add something akin to regenerative braking to make up the difference. I mentioned it in my original comment in anticipation that energy density loss might be accommodated by regen opportunities in the (expected) frequent stopping and starting in the target driving environment.


    *If* that is done, adding some cost of course, I think the edge *might* swing to the PbC.


    Cost of the regen would be my concern: can they add that without straying too far from the market-acceptable price point?


    12 Nov 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Not sure what you mean, regen is inherent in an electric motor, which is also a generator. I expect the car already has regen in it with the current batteries. These are small cars at city speeds so regen loads will be relatively small. Unless they are using brushed series DC motors, which can do regen but it's a bit more complicated, especially at higher voltages. I would not expect a production EV to use a brushed series DC motor.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • I didn't see anything saying they had regenerative built in. I know motors can work both ways, but needs all the supporting circuitry logic, BMS, etc.


    As to loads being small, I expect they are also very short duration, so high DCA would be important. I imagine a lot of jack-rabbit starts and stops is the norm and "high load" is relative to all the factors: system capacity, weight, ac/deceleration rate etc.


    13 Nov 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
    13 Nov 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Regen is built into the motor controller and uses the same components as output, has nothing to do with the BMS. It basically exists by default.
    Regen loads are a factor of vehicle mass and speed. Since both will be low in this vehicle the regen loads will be low as well.
    14 Nov 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Petersen,
    HTL and I are having a rational discussion regarding the various parameters of a vehicle that may or may not be able to use the PbC, you are not required to read any of it, and should refrain from comment since you obviously have nothing of substance to add.
    14 Nov 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3: Yes, but I was anticipating that with low mass, low speeds, ... the capacities involved would be small as well. So my thought was that, everything being relative as you-know-who said, the specific loads might be seen as "small", but relative to the capacity of the stuff in the car, might be "high".


    'Course, no way to *know* here, but if I carry X energy on board I would need Y charge rate acceptance and if I carry 1/2*X energy then I would need something like 1/2*Y charge rate. So the lower mass combined with the whatever speed and jack-rabbit start/stop behavior I anticipate would be common ...


    Anyway, that's what drove my thinking.


    14 Nov 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, I like the PbC for limited range, low speed vehicles. Golf carts, college campus run abouts, grounds keepers, retirement communities, island vehicles etc.


    Unfortunately we don't know how aggressive they could be in these areas because we don't know the fully scaled costs. What can Axion sell PbC batteries for current design / process with a scaled carbon electrode factory and a real automated battery partner? It sure isn't the NSC number but what is it?


    This and a couple other things frustrate me. How do they get additional investors going forward without sharing this and REAL on their manufacturing process?
    10 Nov 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Looking at Friday's stock chart we had a "gravestone doji." I looked up the definition and it wasn't pleasant to read. "The close near the day's low suggests that supply is starting to outweigh demand again."


    Read more:
    11 Nov 2012, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • Friday didn't fit the definition Bang. The graph on Stockcharts shows an open-close spread of .005 with a tail down for a few shares that traded at .249.
    11 Nov 2012, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • >bangwhiz ... It could just as easily interpreted as being "BULLISH INVERTED HAMMER" (see link), a low reliability reversal indicator.



    I don't know if there is much confidence that can be taken from candlestick patterns. My boggle is with where the supply keeps coming from when the price range is in the 1,000ths to 10,000ths of a dollar in small lots. I read the speculations and wonder ... anything put out there could be true ... Rational???? I can't believe that unless I and everyone here on this forum are completely wrong.
    11 Nov 2012, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • That's how my stock chart software read the candle. I belived the program when I hoovered over the candle. I'll go study up on it. Late and I'm crashing.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • Took a few minutes to look at the chart on a different program ( and I agree with you JP. Don't know why the two programs are showing different candles.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • " unless I and everyone here on this forum are completely wrong." Now there is a possibility. Shudder! I am beginning to know how a piece of meat feels when it has been hammered into cube steak.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • OTCBB reports OHLC of $.25, $.2624, $.249, $.2549 for Friday.


    I don't see how those numbers fit either chart pattern.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • Agreed again John.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... I just threw that out there as a possibility ... not a correct one. My candlestick scanner indicates the pattern for Axion to be a "Four Price Doji" formed. It represents complete and total uncertainty in the market direction.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • I buy that one DRich - and the market hates uncertainty.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • John: Yes. Only 4,390 shares traded below $0.25 in two trades within 3:05 of each other. I think this was just a normal "overshoot". At $0.2490, they honored the descending support of our trading channel, as near as I can tell ($0.2493?), and recovered to >= $0.25 on all subsequent trades.


    As to the gravestone doji, Bulkowski says "They believe that it signals a bearish reversal. It does, but only 51% of the time. I call that random".


    Since we are already in a down-trend a bearish reversal is currently impossible! :-)) Thassa goot!


    His identification criteria says "Look for a candle with a tall upper shadow and little or no lower one. The opening and closing prices should be within pennies of each other". Well, that last part qualifies! LoL!


    First part could qualify, but "tall" would be quite subjective here as the close was almost exactly midway in the days range: close $0.2549 and mid-point $0.2557 ($0.2552 if we discount the two "overshoot" trades). Further, we have a close above the open, yielding a "white" or "green" candle, if considered in isolation. Our only bearish suggestion is that we did make a lower low and high and closed 1/100th penny lower than Thursday - hardly a strong bearish indication - at worst just a continuation of trend IMO.


    Looking at other stuff ...


    We have a "cupped" volume pattern and it's ending in a "spike" (albeit not a "strong" one) - often an indicator of end of trend. In Ks: 459, 239, 184, and 446. Looking on a one-year chart we see that volume spikes (even less-strong ones) do correlate quite well to end of trends, whether the trend was flat, up or down.


    Daily short sales are also starting to move up towards "normal", but a way to go yet. In Ks: 25.78, 10.00, 5.30, and 31.79.


    Note the shorts up 6x while volume was up 2.42x.


    I had mentioned the other day that my experimental-period (13) lower Bollinger was getting pushed and the longest run for that condition, on a one-year chart, was 16 days IIRC. We've done 15 days now and our low "pulled away". We need to see that continue though.


    The descending resistance I mentioned above originated at the low of 6/14 and has been tested 5 times now. All, including two overshoots (including today's maybe - hard to be sure), resulted in a leg up to eventually contact (and overshoot on the highs in one seven-day period) the falling resistance.


    Our resistance Friday sat at $0.31 AFAICT.


    Most of the oscillators I watch are now oversold and the stochastic does look to meet or cross up Monday if price and volume don't deteriorate severely.


    On another note, someone had PM'd me about "lock-up" shares, which I had totally forgotten about. If there were some from the Feb issuance, they could have started entering in August? Thoughts on if that might be the source of selling pressure.


    11 Nov 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • DRich: from that link, "6. Upper shadow of the second small body should be at least twice as long as the real body."


    The "body" is 0.0049 (close - open) and minimum needed shadow height would be 0.0098. Our shadow is 0.0075.


    But in all due consideration, when we talk 100ths of a penny, who knows if it really relates or not?


    BTW - good link I'd bumped into before but forgotten. I'm giving it a more prominent position - thanks!


    11 Nov 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • There were 801,000 placement agent shares that couldn't be sold till August, but with volumes of 9.3, 6.8 and 7.4 million for August, September and October I have to believe the 0.8 million vaporized months ago. Since the shares were issued as part of a registered transaction, they would not have impacted the short sale statistics.


    I know we look at different things and over different timeframes, but I think we're seeing the collapse in short sale volumes I've been predicting for a long time. The last time weekly percentages were this low was the two weeks prior to the May CC, which is when I believe Blackrock began selling in earnest. So far the percentage for the month of November is 50% off from the previous low points.


    From my perspective, the last couple weeks have most closely resembled a rapid liquidation like we saw in December of last year, rather than a slow and gentle liquidation of a large position. We're now within 110,000 shares of my blunt instrument zero number, so the answer should be clear shortly.
    11 Nov 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John, Who remains as possible owners in your group of sellers in said "blunt instrument" pool? Does this pool include any of the 0.35 USD buyers? If not, what do you now consider their impact to be?
    11 Nov 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • CORRECTION: "The descending resistance I mentioned above originated at the low of 6/14 and has been tested 5 times now."




    "The descending SUPPORT I mentioned above originated at the low of 6/14 and has been tested 5 times now."




    11 Nov 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • In early October I posted an Instablog that identified holders of 57 million shares that are in my blunt instrument pool. I have recently added some small holders to the pool to improve accuracy, but I can't track them and wouldn't discuss them even if I could.



    I don't see the $.35 buyers as an issue. If you look at my third table in the Instablog which spreads selling activity over the last three years, the "balancing entry" line serves as a reasonable proxy for the individual buyers in the 2009 private placement. Since the same brokerage firms did both the 2009 and 2012 placements, I think it's reasonable to expect a comparable selling pattern.


    Over the years, my experience has been that 20% of new investors sell in the first year, 30% sell in each of the second and third years, and 20% swing for the fences. Those ratios seem to be holding for the 2009 individual purchasers where the balancing entry suggests that 17% sold in the first year, 34% sold in the second year, and 19% sold in the third year. While prior performance of companies is not indicative of future performance, prior behavior of individuals is usually a fair indicator of how they'll act in similar circumstances.


    I'm convinced the big uglies, the guys with multi-million share blocks to sell, are already gone. I think we're well down into the stragglers at this point and should have them digested very soon.
    11 Nov 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • DRich: Bulkowski agrees with you too: "The inverted hammer is supposed to be a bullish reversal candlestick, but it really acts as a bearish continuation 65% of the time."


    However, if he's right, we don't have the inverted hammer because the first candle of the two-candle pattern doesn't qualify: "The inverted hammer is a two line candle, the first one is tall and black followed by a short candle line of any color".



    11 Nov 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • I'm still looking at daily shorts as just volatility leaving. Although the recent lower percentages have broken the *recent* trend of low percentages moving upwards to what I believe will be "normal" once the dust settles, it has happened before and is too recent and short-lived, so far, to decide if it's a trend or a "blip" and, thus far, the longer-term trend of the low short percentages being higher is still intact.


    However, I will again call attention to my experimental charts leading up to the August reporting period. Look at the short percentages trends and lows around that time frame.


    11 Nov 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • "There were 801,000 placement agent shares that couldn't be sold till August, but with volumes of 9.3, 6.8 and 7.4 million for August, September and October I have to believe the 0.8 million vaporized months ago".


    Thanks. I wish the answer had been different though - would've been nice to have some idea of were the selling was coming from.


    Down the road it won't matter because, as you've said, once they've sold they don't matter.


    11 Nov 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • While the short sales carry a vague scent of forced liquidation, the bulk of the selling is coming from (a) retail investors who are fearful over Axion's business progress, (b) retail investors who are fearful over the state of the economy and the fiscal cliff, (c) retail investors who are fearful over Axion's next capital raise, or (d) retail investors who are responding to thousands of day-to-day decisions in their personal lives.


    Without hard reported data like we've enjoyed in the past, there's no way to figure out who is selling and why. We've already passed that point with Axion. From this point forward the only thing that matters is who's buying the stock and how are they likely to respond to future price movements.
    11 Nov 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... I wish there was enough volume and/or price differential to make any technical sense with Axion but my take is there just isn't. That just leaves trading to "catalysts". There is no reason for buying or for selling, barring the usual individual reasons which I usually ignore for just that reason because that doesn't set trends and is just "normal" market action.


    With no catalysts there is only trying to figure out why the trend is what it is. The logical reasons to me for the unrelenting selling is all about what the market thinks of the company/product. My choices boil down to;
    1) The battery technology is just another dud.
    2) The battery might find its niche market but is too small to matter to market expectations of risk/reward, or time value of money, in comparison to other offerings within the sector or entirely different sectors. A variable that can change and one of my top choices.
    3) Market discontent with Management either holding the product too close or lack of faith in marketing ability. Good developmental and business operations management may not be a good skill set for promotion.
    4) Market skepticism of the business model to be able to scale if/when the time comes to do so.


    Something is setting this downward trend and I believe there is more to it than just the float & weak hand investors. I've go my reasons for sticking but I admit this company is a head scratcher. These are just my top reasons for the trend in market terms.
    11 Nov 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: good considerations all. If I had to pick, I would *guess* # 3 to be a big driver - "holding too close" adds to uncertainty as potential investors feel there's less "transparency" into future potential and leaves them also uncertain as to how effective marketing is/will be.


    Secondarily I would guess # 2.


    I think if TG & Co. could find a "shareholder friendly" hat they could wear alongside the development hat it would be better for all. Of course the most shareholder-friendly is long-term success, but I don't think the near and medium-term should be completely ignored either (not saying they are ignoring, just acknowledging that from *our* POV, more disclosure would sure be helpful).


    As example, when he wouldn't discuss time lines and mileposts at all, we know of at least one investor that bailed. Were there others so affected and a lot or just a few?


    No way to judge the impact of such as that.


    11 Nov 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... I don't worry a lot about how TG treats shareholders like myself. I think the group has been very good for me ... so far. When it comes to "... wouldn't discuss time lines and mileposts at all ..." I do wonder if that attitude extends to potential large investors like Blackrock. It's egalitarian but not helpful to finding long term stable shareholders that may not be "true believers" ( a problem in my logic that I share with the Evangelics )
    11 Nov 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Axion is still a pretty illiquid stock if you look at daily volume as a percentage of the float. Liquid companies trade about one percent of their float per day. Axion trades a couple tenths of a percent per day. It's a far sight better than three years ago, but nowhere near the million shares a day that I'd consider truly liquid.


    I think the trend we're seeing is merely a continuation of the last three years with buyers who are only interested in bottom fishing and sellers who feel compelled to act. My thought processes and writings appeal to bottom feeder types, but I don't seem to have any impact on price, which is exactly the way I think it should be. As far as I'm concerned, Axion has to give the market a reason to pay up and for better or worse the good reasons of the past were drowned by the supply and demand dynamics of the past.


    The bad supply and dynamics of the past are behind us and I don't think it will take much of a push from the company, but it's pretty clear that some sort of nudge is necessary.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John.


    Many of us have been waiting for the big uglies to be gone so we can see more normal reactions to events that would in most instances move a stock in a direction that correlates with the value of the added information. This has not been the case since the large holders identified in your attached article decided to liquidate for reasons you've covered at great length. Right now we can perhaps see some of the normal directional activity associated with your subsequent group listing of investors. It is nice to see each groups identity starting out with the word "retail" vs the large asses we've been looking at hogging the pay window.
    11 Nov 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • In mid-August, the 50-day average volume was about 340,000 shares and the big uglies represented about 100,000 shares of that average. Today the 10-day average is about 260,000 shares and the average daily short in November is under 30,000 shares. In the past, there's always been a single seller with enough 'weight' to crush a run. I don't think we have that situation today. The real acid test will, as you suggest, will be whether the stock begins to respond more normally to additional information. With any luck, we'll have a pretty good indication next week.
    11 Nov 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • JP,


    Supposing your supply/demand is correct and the Big Uglies are out of their supply. Do you have any metrics that would suggest at what price or percentage the supply/demand would switch back if and when the company provides that very badly wanted nudge and the price does start to recover? At what point would the $.35 folks decide it is time to cash out and start to throw all of their shares back into the flow?
    11 Nov 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • My guess is that all the 2012 purchasers who wanted to sell in the short term already have. If my speculation is right, we have to try and figure out what price would be high enough to pry a significant number of shares out of the hands of the investors who've been buying over the last three years.


    In all honestly I couldn't begin to guess what that price level is, but I have to believe the upside targets were pretty aggressive when most Axionistas hit the buy button. After all, investors don't climb the wall of worry, invest in a stock like Axion and hold through 50% to 70% price declines unless their expectations on the upside are pretty darned high.


    In liquid established companies most investors can sit still for a double but very few can sit still for a four-bagger. In well distributed nano-caps, elephant hunters can wait for a 10-bagger before starting to lighten up. Until we see how the new stockholder base behaves, it's one of those great mysteries.
    11 Nov 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks JP,


    I am having a lot of fun watching this story unfold. I am ready for Thursday's data to flow out to all of us and I am hoping as the page is turned and the next chapter starts we are all very excited with the new data. Hopefully the new info will put more of the story line in alignment with the time line. I am wondering what chapter number we will be starting in this story? To me this 3rd quarter report and CC is very important to the momentum of this story and for your predictions of the inflection point. Without something substantial and clear I am in agreement with many here that even though the Big Ugly sellers may be gone but without buyers the existing holders may loose nerve and replace the Big Uglies with many many Little Uglies!
    11 Nov 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • You need to remember that Chapter 1 was written nine years ago and the first four years were one gripping existential crisis after another. I lost track of the chapter numbers ages ago. We started with a science fair project, no earthly idea how to make the PbC in volume and no clear idea of where it would be most useful. We figured that the rapid cycling would be useful in renewables integration and smoothing, but didn't think about things like rail and micro-hybrids for several years.


    I only understand the magnitude of our initial risk when I look back. Today I understand that it was a miracle that we found ways to optimize system performance, found ways to manufacture system components, developed ways to manufacture pre-commercial devices that performed as well as the prototypes, drew the attention of potential customers who were willing to spend piles of their own money on testing, survived sadistic testing regimes that are designed to disqualify the unworthy, and finally arrived at a point where those customers are getting serious about fleet tests in both automotive and rail.


    We must have been nuts.


    We had no idea it would take this long, but on the other hand we had no idea the potential markets were as numerous or as large. For years now I've had the sense that the PbC has a spirit and a mind of its own and "it's all up to the battery."


    At this point in time I think there a lot more watchers than there have been buyers. I also think the market is still afraid of the big uglies. The market may intellectually agree with my theory that they should be gone by now, but it can't know for sure and that means bottom feeders are the only buyers.


    Narrow distribution with a few big uglies is always a chamber of horrors for a company like Axion because each holder that makes a sell decision will impact the market for months or even years.


    Broad distribution with many small holders is easier because individuals with objectively small positions can't make decisions that impact the market for more than a few minutes or perhaps a few days.


    With a concentrated float "significant positive events" are needed to take out the big holders. With a widely distributed float, it takes a "significant negative event" before enough small holders make a selling decision at the same time.


    People will get tired of waiting and sell. People will get disappointed and sell. But on balance I think the Axionistas are a pretty patient crowd and fairly representative of the broader stockholder base. I don't see much on this board that smacks of irrational exuberance. Without exaggerated expectations the risks of disappointment are pretty remote.
    12 Nov 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John for your response,


    I have spent the weekend rereading much of the information that has been put out over the last few years. The reports published by Axion and BMW in 2010 has provided me with all the necessary data I need to be a long-term holder. I am definitely in agreement with you in regards to the size of the potential markets for this disruptive technology. It is now over two years since the report was put out regarding using Axions PBC battery in a two battery auto ISS system and I am definitely of the belief that this will be the prominent system used going forward. I am thrilled that I did not know about this story many many years ago and only stumbled across it in 2010, I believe I have arrived at the party at the right time! Looking forward to Thursday.


    Thank you again for all the valuable data that you have provided to the story.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • It sounds like you had a productive weekend. Whenever you stumble across a writer like me who has a clear interest in the subject matter, it's critically important to go back to the source documents and see if you reach the same conclusions. I'm a big fan of the "trust but verify" strategy. I've said several times that I might have passed on Axion in 2003 if I'd known how difficult and time consuming it would become. After nine years of watching Axion pass milestone after milestone, I'm very comfortable with my risk reward profile even though my average cost is in the $1.25 range.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • I feel a little guilty about only being involved for the past couple years and haven't had to live through the anxieties of this story from the beginning days. With that said I have other stories that I have been involved with for over 15 years that never have come to fruition so I do understand completely how this works! Over the past two years I have moved monies around to make Axion the significant part of my high risk portfolio. I have placed my chips now roll those dice!
    12 Nov 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • I think your timing on Axion will prove to have been much better than my buying decisions in 2005 and 2006.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... The way I figure the time value of money over 9 years invested you'll need a share price of about $3.50 to break even. You still have me beat on that one. Think we'll get break even in the next 5 years when my reckoning would peg min. pps at $5.28?
    12 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • I certainly hope to see a profit before then even with an aggressive discount factor for time value of money.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • I am feeling very lucky LUCKY that my average is just under $.35!
    12 Nov 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • As long as you behave better than the big uglies who bought the stock in 2006 through 2009 I'll be delighted to see you profit handsomely.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • You do not need to concern yourself about me as I have a track record of being a long term holder, unfortunately too long on some stories! I am attempting to learn when to arrive and leave the party at the proper times!
    12 Nov 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Wow, I never that I would even be a silver medalist!
    11 Nov 2012, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • John: This ones for you. "The Truth About Electric Cars".


    No facts, but nice to see a believer that at least admits the time line for his expected success will be longer than most anticipate.


    No discussion of whether it's rational - just "it'll be a while".


    Quick read.



    11 Nov 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • HTL & Mathieu... article about trading and market makers I thought might interest you
    11 Nov 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Jon. I spotted that yesterday, but you and I can never tell when I'll miss one. So the post is really appreciated. It's one way we help each other cover any potential "gaps".


    12 Nov 2012, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • 11/09/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol 446285, AvTrSz: 6661
    Min. Pr: 0.2490, Max Pr: 0.2624, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2516
    # Buys, Shares: 33 126425, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2545
    # Sells, Shares: 33 314860, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2505
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2501
    Buy:Sell 1:2.49 (28.3% “buys”), DlyShts 31790 (7.12%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.10%


    Starting with a comment I posted over the weekend seems reasonable, which most of you have probably seen.
    Here's a link to the comment:
    Additional thoughts ...


    Looking at my experimental stuff, we can add daily short sales to items I believe are acting as they did approaching the August quarterly report. This especially apparent if you look at the 10-day average of the short sales. Although not as striking, there is also a fair amount of similarity in the buy:sell 10-day average behavior.


    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” continues to suggest that John's assessment that the big sellers are gone is correct, if my thesis that big sellers trying to dump out are more likely to hit the bid and also cause elevated daily market-maker short sales.


    On my original inflection point calculations, the 5-day has a consistent record of calling a move up before it happens and then rolling over just before or at the same time the move up begins. But it was way too sensitive, even predicting the very small very short-term bump up 10/23 to 10/25, and two later calculation versions attempt to suppress that excess sensitivity. They suppressed the excess sensitivity, but I think need some more work yet. Anyway, the original now has the five-day rising. On that original, the rise seems to be consistently confirmed when a couple of the other periods curl up, not always in the expected sequence of the 10, then the 25, then ... and then the five-day rolls over about the time the price rise begins. It'll be interesting to see if this pattern holds and if the predictive ability that I thought I saw is really there.


    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.


    12 Nov 2012, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • FT offers a longish take on Grid Storage:


    November 11, 2012 8:23 pm
    Power supply: Batteries required
    By Pilita Clark



    Nothing new to the regular readers here, but a nice summary and references to Ambri and Aquion
    12 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting our 4 999 offer. It is also interesting as in the past the mm would hide an offer for less than 5k shares.


    Of course we also had our morning tape painter out trying to stir the s--t selling 300 whooping shares at .249. Just like a gnat.
    12 Nov 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Congressman Bill Shuster has played a role in securing funding for NS 999. So I noticed when this article says he is interested in chairing the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.


    Found more here:
    12 Nov 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • The IEA just released their World Energy Outlook 2012. The full report is expensive but the Executive Summary is here:



    and the press presentation is here:



    It's the first high-level report I've seen that predicts US energy independence within 10 to 15 years.


    "By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030."
    12 Nov 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • We're been hearing about the elusive "energy independence" for over 30 years. It's happening now, with Washington policy makers kicking and screaming every step of the way.


    Has anybody heard in the popular press that the US is approaching 1990 emission levels, and half of the output of the country with the most CO2 output?
    12 Nov 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • OK, We'll concede defeat on this one. When you start applying titanium to exhausts there is a little mass premium.


    "Announced today and arriving next summer, the 2014 SLS AMG Black Series adds another 39 horses to the stable, bringing the total power of Mercedes’s flagship supercar to 622 hp. In addition to reaching even more ludicrous power numbers, the AMG engineers replaced the aluminum exhaust system with one made of titanium, substituted aluminum body parts for carbon fiber, and even replaced the standard lead acid battery with a lithium ion one for a total weight savings of 154 pounds. The result is a 3.5-second 0-60 time, 0.2 seconds faster than the GT, and an electronically limited top speed of 196 mph.

    12 Nov 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • There's no stop-start system. What a gas guzzler.
    12 Nov 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • They wanted to give me one for a 6 month free trial but I thought of that and declined. :))
    12 Nov 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • I told 'em I already had one.
    12 Nov 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • ATDF and CDEL battling for front-row seat on the ask. What a bunch of doofusses.


    He-he!! When CDEL goes to $0.251, ATDF moves back to $0.255. CDEL got had!


    12 Nov 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • When I placed 10k bid @.2501 via Tdameritrade this morning. My bid came up on level 2 - CDEL. It took the following orders before it was filled:
    10:28:16 - 2500 shares
    10:28:17 - 2500 shares
    10:32 -1000 shares
    11:55:58 - 4000 shares
    It looked like the big sellers are gone. Those sales probably came from 4 retail sellers via CDEL.
    12 Nov 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Good to know Snowbirdac11.


    Thanks for keeping us all on-board.


    12 Nov 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Break through in solar technology:


    -- The breakthrough could make possible the design of inexpensive solar cells that combine ultrathin iron oxide photoelectrodes with conventional photovoltaic cells based on silicon or other materials to produce electricity and hydrogen. According to Prof. Rothschild, these cells could store solar energy for on demand use, 24 hours per day. This is in strong contrast to conventional photovoltaic cells, which provide power only when the sun is shining (and not at night or when it is cloudy).

    12 Nov 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • A cost effective way to turn sunlight into hydrogen instead of intermittent electric power could be very liberating. That being said, gee-whiz press releases are more commonplace than cost effective innovations.
    12 Nov 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • John: "gee-whiz press releases are more commonplace than cost effective innovations".


    I think it has something to do with the disparity in cost of production! :-)).


    I hear that raw bits are quite a bit less expensive than all other (un)natural resources. And the development time-line is much shorter as well.


    12 Nov 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • On another front that we've discussed before, methane hydrate research is continuing.

    12 Nov 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ack! 24 cents. Now we are in uncharted catfish waters.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • >mayscribe ... And 16.9k shares at that. Anyone care to proffer up an explanation for why this is a reasonable price?
    12 Nov 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: 'cause I have no dry powder!! :-((


    12 Nov 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • We must have missed the good news somewhere.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe some rub off from XIDE? Other than that it has been weak.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • >jakutz ... Could be front-running good news or just the rain in Spain falling on our mud-flats.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • 10k bid on .23 from me
    12 Nov 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... It's always something. Now at $0.2211 ... will we make it to book? I'm beginning to think Exide is looking good today.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: LoL on the Exide thingy.


    12 Nov 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Perhaps next time we all decide to hunt an elephant together we should pick one that has already contracted aids, cancer, Tuberculosis and be missing a limb or two before we attempt to bludgeon it to death with our primitive tools.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Now is not the time to panic. I've been saying we look like we did approaching to prior quarterly report. That was 8/15. Look at my experimental charts. Same sort of action.


    Report was followed by a bounce.


    I don't mean that we will rocket off, but price should recover if there's any good news at all.


    Whatever forces that caused that behavior last August are apparently still in play, resulting in a broken stock, but not a broken product or company.


    By "hold, hold, hold" through such periods I have never lost money with AXPW yet. I don't believe I will now either.


    12 Nov 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Hey, I bought enough for my elephant skinning tool to be sharpened at .202.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Congrats Iindelco.


    12 Nov 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, Well at least we still have xx999 putting in offers. :)
    12 Nov 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Nice job iindelco: You bought the intraday low, thus far
    12 Nov 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • OR, Nope. Missed it by .0002 USD.


    Now I'll be chomping at the bit lookin to have at that elephant. "Stand back. Sharp edge commin through. Who wants rump roast? "
    12 Nov 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, I Just hope none of our fellow travelers panic as well. If you're going to get taken out at least let them find you with a piece of their ass in your hand. Never make it easy.


    Unfortunately in the markets this is standard practice. Always be careful with stop losses and margin accounts. They will go out of their way to pick your pockets.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco... yep, missed it by .0002: I'll expect better next time!
    12 Nov 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • OR. lol


    Now let's hope TG has something nice to tell us then you and I will enjoy our little nibble today. Maybe we can turn 4 bits into.......
    12 Nov 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Two more tries -- Tues and Wed -- for my $0.20 buy order to fire.
    On a bad 10-Q I have buy orders laddering down to $0.10.


    I'll stop at 100,000 shares and am perfectly content to wait through 2015 to be paid.


    As numerous articles posted on these concentrators continue to show, there are many technologies vying for a piece of the energy future pie. If Axion gets railroads, a piece of stop-start, and something measurable out of PowerCube and/or RoseWater action, we could easily hit $10 in the next 3 years.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • I think we're seeing the effects of AXPW going back to the same people that fronted the last raise....eventually they'll decide they can't throw good money after bad. Not that it's a bad long term speculation, but the stock keeps going down so I don't blame them for walking away.
    I feel like I'm at another presidential debate where everyone is chanting "four more years!" I have to see something positive come out in a PR before I donate more money. I'm fearful and I can't pull the trigger any more.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • If you don't believe in the technology or Axion's ability to sell it, that is one thing.


    But buying a good stock when it is being hammered will make you more money than trying to catch it when everyone is clamoring to buy it.
    13 Nov 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • someone wants gone. meh. may they go in peace. for perspective, I try to recall the events depicted so well in the first ten minutes of saving private ryan... if they can face that, maybe I can endure this...
    12 Nov 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • What is volume telling us?
    12 Nov 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • I suspect we will discover we have a new epithet to add to our vocabulary: You're a no-good dirty rotten Special Situations! Shortened of course to SpecSits.


    Could be wrong, but why stop harping on my suspicions now that we may be close to knowing? :_)


    12 Nov 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, It worked for them last year. Once the spoils dry up the thief will go right back to their same old habits. SS I fear fits the bill.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • HTL & iidelco, am with you... Does this mean financing has taken place? IIRC it was when they did this last year...
    12 Nov 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tim: taking TG at his word, SS wouldn't qualify as a "strategic partner". As JP has detailed, a "strategic partner" is not near as price-sensitive as the folks that participated last round.


    If all that's true, my deduction says no, financing hasn't occurred, at least not via the prior vehicles.


    12 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • In February Axion had an effective Form S-3 registration statement that was getting ready to expire in March. Today it does not have that option because the market value of the float has been under $75 million since February.


    We might well be in a situation where somebody is trying to push the price down in advance of negotiations on the next financing, but as long as the vast majority of buyers are willing to sit back and bottom feed, it's a risk that can't be avoided.
    12 Nov 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • HTL: wasn't suggesting SS was "the" strategic partner. Just wondering if the volume weighted price clock has started...
    12 Nov 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tim: Ah!


    12 Nov 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Picked some up at .2250c Didn't expect it to hit that low water mark. But, I like to buy when others are fearful.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • >Occam's_Razor ... And it certainly looks like someone became very fearful ... of what? Wish I had that Cramer ghostly sound effect.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • On days like today, I ask myself: Could today be the generational buying opportunity when we look back 1, 2 or 3 years from now?
    12 Nov 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • The ask is working its way north again.... I think I already feel jealousy over iindelco' purchase at the low water mark....
    12 Nov 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • OR: Shoot, with any luck he could flip for ~10% on an intra-day trade.


    12 Nov 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Retail!
    12 Nov 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • JP. I like that word.


    This is clearly not that long grind we lived with. But we do have some lesser ugly looking to pick pockets.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • John: at these prices, "Wholesale"!


    12 Nov 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • That's entirely possible, but it's easy to do when all the buying power is lying on the bottom.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • John: I was joking - not commenting on the source, just the price.


    12 Nov 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • did something leak?
    12 Nov 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear is a powerful emotion, particularly with folks who feel triple-grinched by Sandy, the election and the fiscal cliff. When you factor in the reality that most buyers are sitting tight until the CC, it doesn't take much to push prices in the wrong direction.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Holy Whole Grain Cereal, Batman.... look at the MMs Bid/Ask spread now! .22 by .2490!
    12 Nov 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Unbelievable... back to .2449 already.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mario Bottero just gave me a heads up that Rosewater has a new news release:


    RoseWater joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study

    12 Nov 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • I really like this part;


    "The system employs the Axion Power advanced lead carbon battery which ensures 5-20 times the cycle life of traditional lead acid batteries, is safe for home use (UL approved) and is over 99% recyclable".


    UL approved???


    Was there a press release that I missed?
    12 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Referring to the battery, not the hub product.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • I like this part from Professor Strong (presumably he is an objective voice): “The Axion Power lead carbon battery technology has unique characteristics that make it an excellent choice for energy storage systems. Compared to other battery chemistries: it excels in the combination of safety, cycle life, cell balancing, ambient temperature adaptability and cost. We look forward to seeing how the RoseWater Energy Hub and Axion batteries can impact energy storage on the grid.”
    12 Nov 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • PowerStream serves 336,100 customers in Ontario and distributes 8.4 TWh of electricity per year with a peak demand of 2 GW.

    12 Nov 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Maya. Hopefully they can get that UL listing soon so that they can get all those shoes they're wearing out resoled. Nice having all that talent running around North of the US boarder. Or is that South/East?
    12 Nov 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • It's really, really nice that we have Canadian neighbors that will help develop the details needed to make use of a U.S. developed and manufactured product.


    Thank goodness we don't have to rely on (m)any U.S. governmental efforts to move forward a product beneficial to society as a whole.


    <*spits to the left and then to the right*>


    12 Nov 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • John, That's all?


    Maybe the Canadians will do something silly like buying based on cost performance vs hype.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • It's a darned respectable start and the results should be credible at almost any level.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • >iidelco ... Buying those cheap shares has made you go all catawampus
    12 Nov 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, I love a bargain even if it's an insignificant one.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • JP, Obviously kidding around. Getting that level of attention is in fact down right respectable. Like err rail and top 10 automotive (ONLY 3 of those though).
    12 Nov 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • First of all, as a Canadian, I'd like to say "you're welcome". :)


    Second, in case there is any question, you should know that Queen's University is a pretty respected institution up here. I don't know how the official rankings work but it is certainly not a party school. No, I didn't go there.


    Vivan los Axionistas, eh!


    12 Nov 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • IIRC, this is the second Axion association with a Canadian university. The other is Dalhousie ...
    12 Nov 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. Edward Buiel went to both Queens University and Dalhousie.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone know which Local Distribution Company (LDC) service area Queen's University is situated in?


    The PR states,
    "RoseWater Energy will work with Queen’s Multidisciplinary Design Stream Engineering program and multiple local distribution companies (LDCs) in Ontario, including PowerStream, the second largest municipally-owned electricity distribution company in Ontario, as well as Brant Renewable Energy, to complete the study. "


    Once again we see the HUB presented as a Rosewater Energy rather than Axion product. From the PR,
    "RoseWater’s proprietary storage technology, including those found in RoseWater’s Residential Energy Storage Hub that would address the needs of the LDCs and end user. "


    Is PowerStream the same LDC referred to in Rosewater Energy's May 2012 PR ("RoseWater Energy Group to work with major Ontario LDC ... to study distributed residential storage) which indicated a study start date in September with completion in Q2 2013?
    12 Nov 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... Just for the record, the Residential Energy Storage Hub is belongs to Rosewater Energy ... exclusively. It, the Axion battery, is an incorporated application component device ... not the product. That is as it should be.


    A Rosewater customer shouldn't know or care about the Axion battery. Just be concerned the product works as advertised.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • "Just for the record, the Residential Energy Storage Hub is belongs to Rosewater Energy ... exclusively. It, the Axion battery, is an incorporated application component device ... not the product. "


    Square that with text in which reads,
    Under the detailed Letter of Intent signed on June 21, 2012, Axion would appoint Rosewater Energy Group as its exclusive distribution agent for a period of three years, subject to defined sales minimums and other conditions. Specific details of the strategic relationship with Rosewater Energy will be disclosed after a definitive agreement is signed in the near future. Meanwhile, product marketing will begin immediately.


    And, it is my understanding Axion supplied Rosewater Energy Group with a completed HUB. Perhaps I am laboring under a misconception here, but it had been my impression that Axion footed the development bill on the HUB and TG talked about it as an Axion product. As a Rosewater Energy Group product, I would expect all working capital requirements for everything about the HUB except PbCs to fall with Rosewater and Axion revenues to be limited to battery sales.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... I've never seen Axion taking credit for product design. Just providing the batteries, maybe some other components, and production of the prototype and initial order fabrication (?) probably because Axion has the shop space and experts for design integration. By your logic, you're saying that the iPhone should be advertised as a Foxconn iPhone5 because Apple didn't physically prototype & fabricate itself.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • "I've never seen Axion taking credit for product design."


    I could be mistaken but it is my understanding that the PowerCube was developed by Axion as well as the mini-cube system delivered to the Washington Navy Yard. Axion bid delivery of a energy storage system to the Navy, not batteries.


    "Axion will be providing an array of its PbC batteries, system electronics and battery management system that together will serve as an example of Axion's "mini-Cube" concept based on the scalability, up or down, of its primary PowerCube™. "
    12 Nov 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... I'll not argue further. Axion wants to be an electrode provider, a reluctant battery manufacturer and a even more reluctant product developer. It has developed the PowerCube as a box of batteries and a BMS but not all by its little lonesome. From all my understanding Axion is more than willing to off-load any and all products to anyone that wants to advance application development and market it. Beyond having the name prominently displayed on the battery they manufacture, I don't think Axion cares. Even that would be happily traded off to a little sticker on someone's battery box.


    I truly think that Axion has gone down this road as far as they have is because the PbC is a horse of a different color in the battery biz and no one knows it better.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • "D-inv ... I'll not argue further."


    Not attempting to argue, DR, just to understand who pays for what, implications of that for Axion working capital requirements and what kind of profit margin to look for on future sales.
    12 Nov 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... Axion is playing the role of "foundry" & "consultant". I don't know the bookkeeping or cashflow but I'd be amazed if TG was doing the work as anything but a tolling contract and being paid piece rates as compared to commission on sales.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • I disagree, as does Intel apparently.


    Axion Inside!
    13 Nov 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Got it, thanks!
    12 Nov 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Of course it went down! After all, I bought some more today so what else could it do?
    12 Nov 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo: and we had good news, via Maya's link to RW with Queensland Univ.


    So au natural! It went down!


    12 Nov 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • It's all Rosewater's fault!!
    12 Nov 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • For clarity, Queens University is in Kingston Ontario, Canada.


    Very old and prestigeous.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • It is DEFINATELY beer o'clock for this sad soul!
    12 Nov 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    Joe Btfsplk. Gotta like that on a day like today.
    12 Nov 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Beer-thirty here, too.
    13 Nov 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Regarding the Rosewater Energy Hub, I noticed the spec sheet said it had a System Run Time @ 10 kVA for 1.2 hrs. Can someone translate that to me in layman speak?


    Apologize for my ignorance, but I have been trying to get my knowledge curve up by reading Maya's blog board and your (all of you) insightful posts.




    12 Nov 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Volts x amps = watts. So 10 kVA = 10 Kw for 1.2 hours, or 12 kWh.
    12 Nov 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Though in a power outage type situation, I would think the use/discharge profile would be more like ~2Kw for ~6hours or so before needing to crank up the generator...
    12 Nov 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • After talking with Mario, I spoke at length about a lot of other stuff with my broker, during which he put in an order for 25K at 18 cents. He talked me down from 20 cents.


    That would be only $4500 for 25,000 shares. He went down the insider roster and told me that I already have more shares than Ed Buehle (ranked 7th). I replied that I paid a lot less for my shares than did Ed.


    It's another if I get'em, I get'em...and frankly I hope I don't get'em.




    Rick K: Asked my broker about if anti-freeze with ice is used at Jefferson Hospital. He didn't know. But he did suggest that I look into "Trigen Energy Company," which has since changed its name to "Veolia Energy North America."


    Here's a link to their website:

    12 Nov 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, Looks like its part of Veolia, a huge company. Writer and CFA Tom Konrad follows the stock and tends to buy at $10 and sell at $12 (currently its $9.81).
    Here is an article:
    In my limited expertise, Veolia will rise and fall depending on the news from Europe, thus its been falling.
    12 Nov 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane: Veolia took a big stake in something here in the U.S. IIRC. Seen on another board related to (CPST). Landfills or waste water?


    12 Nov 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • HT: I think it was a sale of US slid waste business. They continue to have interests in the US market however.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Thx D Lane!


    13 Nov 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • China Poised to Face Lead Shortage as Acid Battery Use Gains

    12 Nov 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Two battery related articles from the London Financial Times.


    US was quick to plug battery funding gaps:



    Power supply: Batteries required



    Hat tip to my Wells Fargo broker!
    12 Nov 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, Requires a subscription to the FT which I no longer have.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Arggh! Okay, here's a trick, iindelco.


    1) Drag your mouse across the above captions (one at a time), right click and hit copy, and then minimize the window
    2) Open up a new Google window
    3) Right click again, and then hit paste into the search bar
    4) Hit the Google magnifier search feature (though a list may automatically pop onto your screen)
    5) A list will pop up below.
    6) Scroll down and open up the article with the same caption


    That's how I defeated the pay for Financial Times popup window, and was able to read both articles in their entirety, again, without paying. I use this little trick all the time on pay sites -- although some are figuring out ways to stop little snoops like me.


    Seems since I can do it, anyone can, but if the article is pasted elsewhere like here on SA, the link goes right to the pay for popup window.


    Hope this helps!
    12 Nov 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Just tried that method again, iindeco, and it worked.
    12 Nov 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,


    What is the Google magnifier search feature (though a list may automatically pop onto your screen)?
    12 Nov 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stephan: It's the Google search engine feature. Just paste the caption into that long rectangular box...the one with the magnifier next to it.


    A list will pop up below. You can then scroll to the link with the exact same caption.


    I would cut and paste both articles into this blog, but it would take a lot of doing, as I would have to manually omit all the ads and sidebar info.


    And...I'm off in mere minutes to watch with pals the Steelers play in a monsoon, which will be arriving here in Philly tomorrow.
    12 Nov 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, I thought you were talking about some additional functionality ... It works just like you said.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Lest we forget, BangWhiz suggested we had the inverted hammer thing yesterday. In spite of the "experts" documents we referenced that said "no, no, very likely NO", BangWhiz gets this call against Bulkowski et al!!


    12 Nov 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • I think my wife is going to hit me with an inverted hammer or something. :-)
    12 Nov 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • I'm already hammered!
    12 Nov 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Another article - from WSJ, though it pertains to Ford's choice on Lithium-ion battery maker for its e-plug-in competitor to the Prius plug-in and Volt.


    Quote from article that is sad but likely reality: "Kevin Layden, director of Ford’s electrification programs and engineering, said the magic of the C-MAX Energi is really in the battery, which is why the carmaker has chosen to import the batteries from Japan rather than take advantage of the ample and possibly cheaper battery capacity that is now available in the U.S."

    12 Nov 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • I have a question for all.


    If a person has been a believer in Axion and their PBc technology and has been buying for the past 2 years at levels higher than what we are seeing recently why would that person not be gobbling up shares below $.25???


    Just Asking!
    12 Nov 2012, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • >RBrun357 ... We all only have so much money. Good investing has rules about how much of that money should be put into any given class, sector, industry or company. Axion is definitely a speculation which would rank it at the bottom priority and smallest percentage for cash allocation within a portfolio. So there comes a point where the position is full and the logic is "HOLD" or "SELL" depending on conviction. It's often deemed to be OK to over allot available cash to chase performance which this speculation is not demonstrating. I'll buy more when performance moves it out of the speculation category. Money should be kept "working" to make more money on a reliable basis. Speculations come under the heading of "dead money" ... until it's not.


    Then there is always the fact that I spent it all, have all I can afford to buy (even as I thought the higher price I paid was more than fair) and I'm cash poor.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich,


    I totally agree with your thoughts regarding allocation but I am more referring to the people who might have more cash and haven't been in this story as long as someone such as yourself and thinks that they may want to add one more "chunk"! The question is more like this, if I have been adding for the past couple years based on the speculative progress of this story why not add now below $.25?


    What has changed in this story except the price of the stock?


    12 Nov 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • >RBrun357 ... What has changed???? Why the price someone is willing to sell for. Nothing else. If you can't figure out where to put your money to make money between now & when you see the ramp horizon, then buy as much as you can to the limits of your resources. You'll never really know when or what the absolute bottom shareprice is until it hits ZERO. Then I'd lighten up.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • What has changed is that Axion is a few steps closer to a big deal.


    We should remember that so few shares are being traded now, that a single retail holder could have caused the drop today. It could have simply been a matter of someone seeing 25c crack and throwing in the towel.


    I will agree with RBrun though... wish some large holders would step up to the plate and buy more. They would make money instantaneously just by boosting the price of the rest of their shares.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • >Ranma ... Hmmm, a large holder. That would be nice. A stable holder with an economic interest ... like a strategic partner would be nicer, though I'd settle with larger fund with a 5 year horizon. This forum just doesn't wield the concentrated financial wherewithal.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • I'm with Ranma on this.


    $0.25 was the low on the 1-year chart before we hit $0.2495 on Friday.


    Someone could easily have panicked on "support being broken" and dumped 70 or 80 thousand shares on Monday.
    13 Nov 2012, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • 'Motor Trend' names Tesla Model S as Car of the Year!
    I bet they regret this one...
    13 Nov 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • The entire list of past winners is here, including wonder cars like the Chevrolet Corvair (1960), the Ford Probe (1993) and of course the Chevrolet Volt (2011) –
    13 Nov 2012, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • I know you will dismiss it like anything else Tesla, but it is the first time there is unanimity 11-0 in their jury!


    They are not voting future market success, but present vehicle qualities, in 6 or so key attributes (and the price is factored in).
    13 Nov 2012, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • It's obviously a nice car. The probability that it will be enough to support a $3.5 billion market capitalization in the long term is vanishingly small.


    Do yourself a favor. Buy a copy of Mastering the Hype Cycle.

    13 Nov 2012, 03:29 AM Reply Like
  • $3.5B market cap is less than 20 times their 2013 earnings. 20 P/E for a company that has just increased production by a factor of 30 and will do again x2 in 2014 and again x5 in 2016, is really a good starting point. Of course there will be large variations in TSLA that some people may not be able to stomach (but others will simply love), but we will never get below $10 as you predicted.


    Obviously, I cannot offer proofs for my (optimistic) estimates, it's only time that will tell us.


    Edit: I should probably talk about operating profit, not earnings, as a chunk of that will be used for R&D and production capacity expansion - all of which will add to assets.
    13 Nov 2012, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • Run the numbers Nicu. 20,000 cars at $60,000 each is $1.2 billion. 25% of $1.2 billion is $300 million in gross profit. Deduct operating expenses of $100 million per quarter and you get to a GAAP Net Loss of $100 million for the year.


    Tesla has just hit the product launch stage. Believing it will be net income positive next year is preposterous even if everything goes right. When you start adding fudge factors for the thoroughly predictable unanticipated delays and problems, it's a recipe for catastrophe.
    13 Nov 2012, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • 1) 60k is the minimum price for the smallest battery with basically no options (delivery is $1000) and excluding maintenance ($500 / year if payed in advance for 4 years). So I would go for $75k - $80k average price.


    2) operating margin (including SG&A but not R&D and investments) should be 12.5%


    3) 20k for 2013 is again minimum, I would go for 25k not to be stoned in this thread (that production rate should be achieved this year)


    4) those assumptions get to about $240M excluding R&D, investments and power-train operations for Mercedes B class - so net earnings positive is still a close call (a bit under $200M if 20k cars are assumed)


    5) should we add California ZEV credits (sold to other manufacturers) which could add up to $10k per car for a nice chunk of all cars? this cash adds directly to net earnings with no extra work / expense
    13 Nov 2012, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • This is an inappropriate discussion for this forum.
    13 Nov 2012, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • The first start-up to make the list? impressive. I, for one, hope they beat the odds and are successful. Good luck Nicu!
    13 Nov 2012, 07:40 AM Reply Like
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