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  • Axion Power Concentrator 176, Nov. 16: Q3 '12 Report, SAE Truck APU App. Presentation; Rosewater & Queens Univ. Partner On Distributed Energy Study; 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems" 206 comments
    Nov 15, 2012 7:38 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    On 11/14/2012 Axion filed their quarterly report and put a news item on their web site that summarizes management's comments and provides a link to the conference call (available for 90 days and worth hearing).

    Due to an apparent slowdown of the Edgar system, the report was deemed not filed on time, which Tom Granville mentioned at the start of the conference call. They have filed an exculpatory report of that incident.

    John Petersen was able to obtain and post a copy of Axion's SAE 10/2/2012 Truck APU Application power-point presentation. Many thanks to him for his continued contributions. We see even more cycles applied to the (apparently modified?) PbC # 2 in their testing showing even greater capability.

    On 11/11/2012 there was an announcement that RoseWater joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study "... to conduct a study to evaluate the impact of a widely-distributed energy storage system backed by RoseWater's Residential Energy Storage Hub on an electrical grid". "... The results of the study, which is already underway, will greatly benefit all companies and individuals involved in energy supply, distribution and consumption, including policy makers, regulators, electric utilities, and storage systems manufacturers". Other information makes it worth a read. Look under the November 2012 releases if you come late to the party.

    John Petersen's participation as a presenter at the 13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC, has provided additional benefits: he has posted, a brief instablog that identifies slides with information and data he'd not seen before and considers important in Axion's presentation, "Axion PbC Lead-Carbon Hybrid Battery/Supercapacitor ,Operational Stability of PbC Batteries and Battery Systems", to which he has provided a link.

    John did a bang-up job on his presentation, in our opinion, and has graciously permitted us to link to a SlideRocket Version of his presentation. It is highly recommended that you take the time, around 20 minutes, to view this if you've not seen it. It is not focused on Axion, but presents some opportunities and challenges facing the LA battery industry at-large.

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    John Petersen has provided price and volume charts updated through 11/9/2012.

    (click to enlarge)AXPW Weighted Moving Average Price 20121109

    (click to enlarge)AXPW Moving Average Volume 20121109

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    John's Petersen's tracking of the APC comment activity has been updated through 11/9/2012. Up to 34,465 comments now.

    "APC Concentrator Comments 20121109"

    (click to enlarge)
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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (206)
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  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    cough
    15 Nov 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: "cough" ... Did you remember to turn your head left and then right?

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    into arm.
    16 Nov 2012, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    drat.
    15 Nov 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Bronze...
    15 Nov 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Pb. :0P

     

    Didn't notice if someone posted this. Axion's Q3 2012 transcript.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Nov 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    It's unusual for SA to do transcripts on OTCBB companies. I think they're getting the message.
    15 Nov 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Might just be practice for the obvious that's in the future.
    15 Nov 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    This is the very first time they've done this for Axion, no? It would seem to me that that in itself could be meaningful... and hopefully marks the beginning of a long tradition.. imagine 5 years from now when Axion's earnings are breathlessly awaited by scores of analysts and a broad community... like, oh, say, polypore's... ;)
    15 Nov 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    if you are not getting email alerts from SA on axpw, might do so through the option on that page. they might continue to raise the profile a bit (maybe it's just a # of followers thing).
    15 Nov 2012, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    And just maybe, after a few cyber conversations I had months ago with David Jackson, Seeking Alpha is now possibly positioning itself with a way, a method to monetize the more successful Instablogs.

     

    Combined page views between the APCs, QuickChat, tripleblack's REE thread, FocalPoint's EZ and biotech blogs, Jon Springer's investing blogs about Mongolia and Sri Lanka, some of JP's and HTL's Instas, and other Instas about Apple or Sirius...the combined page views has to be well north of two million views.

     

    Some of us were "bothered" when SA reduced Instas to the farthest back cavernous end of SA. Though I was not one of the bothered, I do agree that there's much more going on with stock picks, and covering emerging news events, such as all of us do, in a sort of underground version of Seeking Alpha.

     

    There was a day back when I was totally positive that CNBC was following what we were blogging. There were far too many instances of when us original SA bloggers would see very soon after we blogged, CNBC would hours, even sometimes only minutes later, be yacking about the same quasi-obscur subject.

     

    Yes, hard to believe. But I would bet my next month's beer money this to be true.
    16 Nov 2012, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2140) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    "But I would bet my next month's beer money this to be true."

     

    That would have to be a sure bet at my house, somethings are sacred.
    16 Nov 2012, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    SA also published the Q4 2009 earnings call transcript, but there's been nothing since then.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I just spent a few minutes skimming through that transcript from March 2010. It's a great read for anybody who wants to be reminded how far Axion's business has come while its stock price was crushed to oblivion and beyond.
    16 Nov 2012, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Another brick in the woll:

     

    http://bit.ly/Utkb35
    15 Nov 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    "Nissan received $1.4 billion in Energy Department loans to build a battery plant and upgrade a factory building the Leaf in Smyrna, Tenn. The company had invited reporters to attend a grand opening of the battery plant on Friday but abruptly canceled the ceremony."

     

    Elections over. Tear down the facade.
    15 Nov 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    By comparison with this, I think that AXPW is holding up pretty well:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/dy3...
    15 Nov 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4199) | Send Message
     
    Given continuing lack of PbC sales revenue, a looming "fiscal cliff", Euro Zone uncertainties, Syrian civil war, and now Israel-Gaza flaming flares, I'm somewhat amazed Axion's share price did not fall further today.

     

    After reading SA's cc transcript, I have a fairly different reaction than some comments I've read on APC175.

     

    One item of some interest that was not addressed in earlier discussion was TG's elaboration on the type of FLABs produced on toll contract with a flavor of who that customer might be. Many APC participants apparently concluded much earlier that East-Penn is the customer. If New Castle Battery Manufacturing Co. produced industrial grade heavy equipment batteries for East-Penn before it closed up shop, then East-Penn remains a candidate, but not otherwise. Heavy equipment OEMs and aftermarket battery vendors such as BatteriesPlus are also viable candidates. Given the nature of Axion's TurboStart subsidiary's aftermarket business I'm inclined to lean toward a large retail aftermarket vendor as Axion's business partner.

     

    Regarding possible future PowerCube sales to utilities flowing from Axion's September 22 conference presentation, I read TG's comments as saying nothing more than
    1) following the conference Axion received several RFPs from utilities in attendance and 2) Axion's responses to those RFPs are very near maturity. I see little prospect for sales to any of those utilities to materialize this year.

     

    In the Class 8 trucking market, Axion SHIPPED 52 batteries to a small OEM client on November 7. The OEM reportedly plans to place a hybrid truck (using those batteries) in service before the end of this month, and Axion expects feedback before year-end on performance of the vehicle in real-life commercial service. Larger well established OEMs are also interested in the PbC following Dr. Enders' presentation at the SAE conference and negotiation of NDAs with more than one OEM is in process.

     

    BMW appears unlikely to advance their S/S PbC plans before next year. NSC took delivery of $13K PbCs after end of Q3, but still has not requested delivery of any portion of the $475K of PbCs ordered in April and NSCs timeline for scheduling those deliveries remains indecipherable.

     

    HUB and possibly PowerCube purchase orders before year-end are likely now that the third party testing agent UL approval has committed to a completion date in December. Offshore sales not dependent on UL listing are also prospective.

     

    On the next capital raise, if a strategic partner willing to accept terms suitable to Axion is not identified by some time early next year Axion expects to draw on the same group that provided funding on the last capital raise.
    16 Nov 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    Although I missed some of the prepared material at the start, this sounds like a well-balanced short summary of the CC to me, thanks. I must say that at times I didn't think the questions got direct answers (well not ones that answered the question as I understood it), and that Tom would come over better if he could polish-up the reading of the prepared material. Got to give him credit for being eternally cheerful given the slowness of the OEM contingent though.

     

    One PS: There was explanation of the "pay for performance" measure (92), although it certainly seemed odd (1 + 92/100 payment), and they have got wip for the NS delivery (what is "in duft"(?) pls?).

     

    And also, there was mention of the PINK listing at the end of the last Concentrator (and back in September). IB tell me that on July 23rd AXPW were removed from the OTCBB (otcbb.com) and are only quoted on OTCQB (otcmarkets.com), some quote providers and trading providers (Google, IB), now designate AXPW as "PINK" as this is a term they use for all companies that (just) use OTC Markets Group (ie independent of which tier they trade on, be it OTCQX, OTCQB (AXPW), or PINK - ie the "original" otcmarkets.com). I did ask Axion about this but never got a reply.
    16 Nov 2012, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I think Tom's reference to batteries in duff means that the batteries have been built, but they haven't been filled with electrolyte or taken through the formation process, which is typically something you'd want to do immediately prior to shipment.

     

    Axion's primary market is the OTCBB and if you use the site search function at http://www.otcbb.com you'll find that the last change was in August 2008 when Axion's listing was restored after the stock spent about a year on the pink sheets as the company re-did its audits for 2003 through 2007.

     

    The OTC Markets Group has been aggressively undercutting the OTCBB in terms of transaction pricing and the net result is that part of the trading flows through the OTCBB and part flows through OTC Markets. Why OTC Markets keeps changing it's designation of a stock where it's not the primary market is a mystery to me.
    16 Nov 2012, 05:05 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    If all goes "perfectly" in my perfect world and we are lucky ducks,and we don't get goosed from behind by i.e. the economy or new technologies. I see things playing out something like this as far as sales of PbC batteries. Sorry only have time for this 10 minute effort so sure there are mistakes and omissions. Just a general timeline for how I see revenues ramping up: and revenues not really ramping up for about 2-3 years.

     

    Within next 3 months:
    -Sales of HUB
    -Ship NS batteries for NS999 for which already have purchase order.
    - If TG says PC RFP's are near maturity I think we get a sale or two. When I tried to get some type of comment on PC sales a couple of CC's ago, TG completely stonewalled me. I think him saying near maturity means within next few months and that he is very positive about Axion's chances..

     

    3-6 months
    -Sale of more batteries to trucking for further testing.
    -Another couple of PC sales.
    -Purchase order for string testing batteries for hybrid locomotive.
    -Small sales of test batteries to OEM's both auto and trucks for testing.
    -more HUB sales

     

    6 months to 1 year
    - purchase order for sale of batteries for NS999 clones - iindelco and HTL are salivating.
    - hybrid locomotive purchase order for batteries
    - fleet testing batteries to OEM's and auto
    - several more PC sales
    - continued HUB sales
    - PbC sales to APU and other trucking refitters and OEM's for testing.
    -other locomotive manufacturer testing

     

    1-2 years
    -OEM auto purchase order for small production model -
    -more NS 999's
    -locomotive stop/start sales
    -purchase order for more hybrid locomotives for testing
    -more PC and HUB sales
    -trucking, APU sales.

     

    2-3 years
    -all above plus larger orders for trucking, auto and rail.
    16 Nov 2012, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    JP: re otcbb vs otcmarkets.
    If I look at otcbb.com I find that AXPW is NOT traded on it (although you can certainly get a quote). Eg, see the FAQ, http://bit.ly/SR2Ph6, and click the link on point 7 for "ASCII File containing all OTCBB securities" . AXPW is not there. And neither does it have a market maker listed. But I can't find your mention of the 2008 restoration (so I know I've not found all the info).

     

    On http://bit.ly/U3s6rG I see that the market tier is shown (OTCQB), although this designation also applies to companies that _do_ trade on otcbb as well.

     

    So I'm more inclined to believe what IB told me (not infallible I agree) about a change in July. If only Axion had replied.

     

    I don't think the "PINK" designation changes, the confusion is when some providers class all of the otcmarket tiers as PINK (like IB), but others don't.
    16 Nov 2012, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    At the top of the OTCBB web page, there's a search box to the right hand side. If you type AXPW a short list of actions appears, along with a company profile. The two reported actions were February 22, 2005, the date of the original listing, and August 4 2008, the date when Axion's late filing issues were resolved. If something else had happened in July, there should be another change notice.

     

    Since I did the work to get Axion listed on the OTCBB and know to a certainty that it was listed on the OTCBB when I left Axion, I'm surprised that it doesn't appear on the list of OTCBB securities. Since I've been separated from Axion for almost five years it's possible that something has changed, although I can't for the life of me figure out what.

     

    Now that you've piqued my curiosity I'll do some digging.
    16 Nov 2012, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    In view of my above timeline, was somewhat concerned about TG's comments on BMW " Like anything there have been some starts and stops but we’re still positive about it." and that was about as much as he was willing to offer. He sounded less positive than before and makes me wonder what is going on, or if his hands are just tied from making any comments.

     

    Thought TG was cagey reading the NS sustainability report since it was NS that made that info public.
    16 Nov 2012, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    When I first wrote about the NS 999 Tom got an angry call from somebody who assumed Axion was talking out of school. I was able to defuse the situation by immediately dumping about 10 MB of research files in their laps but for a while there, Axion took some heat.

     

    When I asked NS for an interview, I was told that they didn't want to talk publicly about the NS 999 or the road locomotive until the units were on the rails and working. My clear sense is that they were embarrassed by the first failure and don't want to draw the market's attention to the second attempt until they have proof of success – the old once burned twice shy syndrome.

     

    Quoting their sustainability report word for word was a great way for Tom to drive the issue home without stepping outside the lines.
    16 Nov 2012, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Metro: "iindelco and HTL are salivating."

     

    Beats hell out of "dry mouth" we have ATM. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    It looks like all OTCBB designations are being phased out and replaced with OTCQB has become the micro-cap reporting standard. I suspect sometime in July Axion underwent this change. The OTC markets have created three tiers; OTCQX which costs an annual fee is the top tier, OTCQB which is for micro-caps that are up to date with all regulatory filings is second and then the rest are OTC pinks.
    http://bit.ly/T8Ama8

     

    It also looks like a new direction with the OTC market is underway to make it more liquid, more transparent and attract more institutional investors without the costs of the big exchanges. Edgar online has teamed with them to send out more data to investors.

     

    http://wapo.st/TQs5oN

     

    http://on.wsj.com/T8AmHg
    17 Nov 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    JAK: Good sleuthing. Thanks for those links.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Nov 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    So we are in the OTC pinks? and if the late filing is corrected we should be in the OTCQB? would there be an advantage to being in the top tier OTCQX? Thanks for floating this up for us jakurtz...
    17 Nov 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    We are on the OTCQB, not the pinks. The advantages of the OTCQX is supposedly higher liquidity and more institutional trading, but costs a fee. Here is the criteria for being on the OTCQX --

     

    http://bit.ly/T3jIpj

     

    (Excellent insight below, Tim. Thanks.)
    17 Nov 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Thanks jakurtz...
    17 Nov 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Also just wanted to note that the QX only has about 400 companies on it including ones like Canadian oil sands, Addidas, Bombardier, experian - some very big companies, while QB has 3500 securities and the pinks has close to 6000.

     

    For HTL --
    CDEL, ATDF, UBSS and NITE are four of the top six most active MM's on the QB, so I would imagine most retailer trades are going through them as we have noticed.

     

    http://bit.ly/WjVSLd
    17 Nov 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    JAK: thanks. I'm suspecting that means they behave here as they, and others do, on the major exchanges.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Nov 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Correct, HTL. The upshot of the upgraded OTC categories is that they are now on the radar screens of the quantmonkies...
    20 Nov 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    TB: if I'm correctly reading our volume on many stocks, and the market in general, a bunch may be on hiatus. I've noted over the years a general reduction in volumes around this time of year and this year *seems* to be even a greater reduction. Nothing "quant"itative about that judgement - just my feeling. If that's right, we might have a respite from their effects until the new year, although I've been guessing for a while that the MMs were getting more involved with our little "KIAS" company.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Nov 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): From SA transcript, page 2 paragrapgh 6: "Capital will also be required to transition manufacturing of complex power storage systems to a major US contract manufacturer. That manufacturer will be fully capable of ramping up tube and hub manufacturing to meet future demand take full advantage of economies of scale and further align with the company’s long term strategy".

     

    I'm not sure, but this sounds like they already know who will be doing the manufacturing of "tube [cube] and hub" product already. This leads me to think that the pipeline of at least RW orders may be further along than we might have been thinking. This thought predicated on the fact that usually these types of things have some discussion of near and long-term quantities and time-frames such that resources needed can be estimated, supply chains can be queried and established, production slots needed estimated, ... pricing "firmed up", etc.

     

    If nothing else, pricing points based on volume vs. time, performance objectives established, ...

     

    With the Queens University effort beginning, this seems quite reasonable.

     

    Am I far afield here?

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Sounds logical to me. In spite of the normal delays in hoped for schedule with BMW and NSC, the other specific info and allusions on the CC were very encouraging.
    16 Nov 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: RATS! Later in answering Hubert Young's question: "... [residential hubs] ... but we’re talking to a number of contract manufacturers to take that burden off of the plant here and just focus on making the batteries".

     

    Not quite as positive as I had hoped.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    In the Q & A, in response to a question from Dan Skolnik: "It’s also one of the reasons we’re as excited as we are about the residential units and the off-shore units that we've been looking at and advanced RFPs on because they are shorter term projects, very much shorter term projects".

     

    I know they've got a lot of RFPs out, but I was thinking of the "mature development" stage of RFPs he mentioned resulting from the south east utility conference where we presented on September 18. Is it possible that any utilities projects could be "... very much shorter term projects"?

     

    IIUC, utilities are also slow-movers. I can't imagine any having near-term orders to Axion resulting from "mature development" stage RFPs *unless* one or more of the utilities already had efforts initiated to look at and implement grid-storage test and demonstration projects, likely as a result of the regulators edict for a percentage of green energy in their portfolios. John's mention of the Hawaii utility would be a prime example where they have very high percentage of "green" generation.

     

    I would love to hear that I'm wrong on this and the utilities are not the snails I was thinking they are.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Another hint that the pipeline might be deeper than we thought? From the answer to that same question: "Once that attesting to the UL 1741 standard is stamped on the unit, they can move at a much faster fashion and approve something in a day or couple of days as opposed to weeks. Again, this is what we’re being told by the installer, when we deal with them on a daily basis".

     

    The key here, IMO, is "... when we deal with them on a daily basis". Installers (note the plural) being dealt with on a daily basis seems to suggest that, again, RW (and maybe other) efforts have yielded a much bigger and more immediate response than we might have anticipated.

     

    Add in the recent import of more carbon from overseas, ... The threads appear to be coming together.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    What is the reporting lag for the carbon import info we get? If it is short enough, then it could be an excellent way to track near-term PbC sales expectations. Might be worth someone on the Axionista team paying a few bucks to get the info quickly then posting it here. Heck, I'll skip my next 1 share purchase to put that $10 in the hat.
    18 Nov 2012, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    In response to a question from Susan Bond: "And then as I said, talked to and we are working with other large lead asset batteries, talked to companies, talked to them about and we have already done some of that about purchasing our electrodes to make their batteries better".

     

    This surprised me as with the PR from the "bigs" all centring around adding carbon paste to their AGM batteries I didn't think they had an interest. However, with Exide now ending all warranties of any kind on factory shipments after October 1(?), maybe there's more to this statement than I think? Are others likely to follow suit and end their warranties? Or maybe just on s/s installations?

     

    I know, straws and grasping, but ...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I don't read into Exides Warranty adjustments that they are "now ending all warranties of any kind on factory shipments after October 1(?)...". They are adjusting their warranty period by eliminating the pro rata period of the warranty. In essence they are reducing the duration of the warranty period not eliminating it. All this depends on the individual warranties of course. That's my read.

     

    BTW, That's still huge and IMO an admission that they are blowing smoke when they say they have a solution to some of the advances needs in some apps. So we can still get excited. (Wet rag dodge. lol)

     

    "EXIDE® LIMITED WARRANTY
    Exide Technologies takes great pride in the batteries it manufactures and provides a limited warranty
    program for many of its batteries. There are 2 components of the limited warranty program for batteries
    covered by Exide’s limited warranty: FREE REPLACEMENT and PRO RATA. Note: Exide will be discontinuing
    Pro-Rata Warranty on batteries shipped from Exide on or after 10/1/2012."
    16 Nov 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    With the next capital raise coming in January or February and with the stock price where it is today I am thinking that there could be an additional 35 to 50,000,000 shares added to the existing 118 million count. With this many shares outstanding may I ask what your opinion would be regarding a potential reverse split somewhere out there in the future. I am still very much optimistic about the long term for Axion but I am attempting to understand how to play a potential reverse split out in the future. I know that TG stated that they did not wish to do a reverse split, but that was then and this is now. Do you still believe that they will be able to ramp revenues large enough to support the outstanding share balance?

     

    If you believe that a reverse split will not actually be needed, please help me understand.

     

    Thanks
    16 Nov 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    RBrun -

     

    On this subject, when I first started looking at Axion my guesstimate as to how many shares would be outstanding was 200M by the time they were ready to roll.

     

    In hindsight, which is always 20/20, although we all would have screamed fowl, I wish TG had taken the whole amount that he was seeking when the last shelf first became effective.
    16 Nov 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I'm the wrong person to answer that question because I can't imagine the price staying where it is for any extended period of time.

     

    On March 31, 2010, Axion had a market capitalization of $97.4 million. Then the selling started and it continued non-stop for 2-1/2 years to bring us to a current market capitalization of $28 million.

     

    On March 31, 2010, the only recognizable name in Axion's vocabulary was Exide. Today we have publicly acknowledged relationships with BMW, Norfolk Southern and Viridity who have all completed their torture testing. In addition, Axionista sleuths have uncovered relationships with GM and (we think) Toyota. There are a couple more names in the trucking industry that will be revealed over the next few weeks as Axion begins APU testing by 2013.

     

    Management has had the opportunity every year to implement a reverse split and has refused to do so. When new hires come on board they get options that won't be in the money till the price is over $1.50. Given the work that's been done over the last couple years and the results Axion's demonstrated, I believe it should be a $2.50 to $5 dollar stock and the only thing standing in the way at this point is fear.
    16 Nov 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Thanks, I appreciate your response, I knew you were the right person to ask!
    16 Nov 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    Thanks for your input. I agree with taking the entire amount but it is what it is now!

     

    I am hoping that JP is correct and the inflection point is upon us and the big Uglies are all gone and we will start getting a couple good press releases about UL approvals and hybrid trucks cruising down the highway. Maybe that will prop up the share price in order to assist the next round of financing.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Answering Donald McCathy: "We’re beyond testing for the NS-999 and the testing that we’re doing is for over the road vehicle".

     

    Assuming this is coordinated with (NSC), it suggests that the NS-999 related (testing) results have been quite well accepted by Norfolk decision-makers as indicating a high likelihood of success for the OTR units as well. So regardless of slowness or time-lines not to our liking, it seems thre's good reason to be near-100% optimistic about this effort and the eventual results.

     

    Later "[referencing locos with idle s/s built into them] ... They are looking at utilizing this across the board for rebuilds, for yard slugs, for all electric, for hybrid electric, for the over the road units. In some applications it’s not the best use of the product, for example ..."

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. I was not totally convinced that TG said they want to use PbC in their anti-idling locos. He said yes to D. McHattie's question but then his full answer seemed to reference only the slugs and the OTR hybrids. I wondered, did he understand DM's question?
    16 Nov 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I specifically mentioned idle stop/start and TG answered 'They are looking at utilizing this across the board...'.

     

    When he drifted off into 'In some applications it's not the best...' I felt he was trying to mitigate, trying not to speak for NS when he does not have authority to do so.

     

    So while he didn't say specifically that NS is looking at the PbC for idle stop/start, he did say enough to lead me to believe that they are doing precisely that.

     

    D
    16 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    A confirmation: "[referencing possible accelerated testing by accepting the BMW-related test-bench data] ... We do have batteries in other OEM vehicles and I can’t get into ...".

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    You seem to be responding to your own postings this morning. Yes, I also caught "We do have batteries in other OEM vehicles and I can’t get into ...".and was pleased by that. Would like to know numbers. This divorce of ownership and control is just a &%$&/. It's just ducky that I am not privy to any information. It's a fowl system. Sorry.
    16 Nov 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Loved the puns! Good chuckle to continue my morning.

     

    As to responding to myself ...

     

    Just jumped into the APC and started simultaneously reading the transcript. Thought I'd just post my thoughts as they happened, remaining the APC, rather than trying to compose some well laid out comment.

     

    It's a Saturday, so I'm "off" a bit more than normal. Likely missed some posts by others doing it that way.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    "It's a Saturday, so I'm "off" a bit more than normal."

     

    If you think it is Saturday, you're a bit further "off" than you think, or I'm in some space-time continuum thing.
    16 Nov 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Metro and HTL. I'm loving the exchange! Need a little of that to fill in the s-l-o-w Axion trading. :))
    16 Nov 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Its Friday where I am!
    16 Nov 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    D Lane,
    Thank goodness for confirming that because I always think that I am the one that is wrong.
    16 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Metro: thanks for reminding - I hadn't even fired up the trading desk this A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    You haven't missed much on the Axion front.
    16 Nov 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Seems to be Saturday measured by trading in AXPW!
    16 Nov 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Metro: Yeah, I see that. With CDEL on both sides, you'd think they could shout across the aisle and work out a deal for 100 shares or so.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Pretty wide spread (relatively speaking)

     

    Stunned that the MM that shall not be mentioned hasn't led the offer parade down yet, but I'm sure after posting this, they will.

     

    Wondering if there are multiple sellers on CDEL ... did anyone notice how we got to .2699 as opposed to say .27?
    16 Nov 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    And BOOM ... there it is.

     

    I'm thinking of changing my id to the_seller_whisperer
    16 Nov 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    It's appearing that we may be breaking records with trade volumes today with our little stock.
    16 Nov 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    I just bought one share.

     

    Yet another Axionista record to add to my collection.
    16 Nov 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... One Share?!?!?!? With brokerage, you might own the most expensive share of Axion known. I like that kind of "devil may care" attitude.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, One share. Are you thinking the mm is celebrating a birthday and felt the need to send a gift? A commission for 1 share! LOL
    16 Nov 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    DRich, You beat me too it. I didn't type much but it took me awhile. Hard to hit the right keys when you're belly laughing!

     

    Wait til Mr. I throws it back in out faces in a few years that he's in the money. Ahhh sigh.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    That 1 share is his trading block - he's long-term oriented though! ;-)

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    At least it didn't show up as a print on the time and sales report.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I'll see that call and raise 100k. I'll still be here when those cards are turned.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    HTL, He wants to be stealth with his higfh frequency trading block sizes so he's not noticed. Doesn't want his trading blocks to impact the performance on his core holdings!! LOL

     

    John has confirmed it's working.

     

    DRich, Well he's filtering his data. More interested on the big picture horizon like most of us. Not looking at the pixel placement!
    16 Nov 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    My personal favorite record is bidding for all of Axion's shares. Over 133 million at 1/100 of a penny. Surprised that TD Ameritrade allowed it.
    16 Nov 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I That's one way to figure out what's really going on. One God Awful panic and you could have been on the BOD laughing your a%$ off at some of our speculation.

     

    And you'd have a better idea of the probability of when you'd get ROI on that share!
    16 Nov 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    MrI: A true "All or none" (AON) trade.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    DRich--yet another record for MI.

     

    With taxes and tip, about the same price as one bottle of Matilda at the bar. About the same amount of fun, too.
    16 Nov 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Re: I just bought one share.

     

    You might as well go all out get it in certificate form. It would look nice hanging on the wall.
    17 Nov 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Pascquale: they charge for certificates - would but his cost basis for that "trading block" much too high! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 Nov 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Maybe we should all start messing around with the MMs with 1 share purchases. Drive them bonkers putting up an offer, then withdrawing it 100s of times per day.

     

    Just drive them completely batty.

     

    http://binged.it/ZOmpjN
    17 Nov 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Maya, ricochet "bing bing bingngngng" rabbit! Haven't seen that in uhmmmmm, just a few years. lol

     

    I think the computers would have a field day handing out unit shares and making multi-dollar transactions. We'd be slightly poorer with sore fingers!
    17 Nov 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I have a question that is slightly OT and highly speculative. I thought some might do me the favour of chiming in since we have some 'big picture' thinkers here and at least one 'futurist'. :)

     

    In this whole evolving investment megatrend that is the energy storage industry, where might we see a role for the small entrepreneur?

     

    I've always been a bit of a corporate cog and remain satisfied with my current occupation but I went to a networking event last night full of small business owners and it got me thinking about how I could turn this interest in energy storage into a job or business.

     

    There is the Rosewater example so maybe one answer is to set up as like a sub-distributor or re-seller of Rosewater products (ie: the Hub).

     

    I should also say that the business idea need not be an immediate opportunity but perhaps something that we see ripening in the next 2-5 years or so.

     

    Any ideas or advice would be much appreciated.

     

    Thanks in advance,

     

    D
    16 Nov 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    My latest article on TheStreet is an in-depth look at hype-cycles and why they're critical to investors. Axion is right at the tail end of a nine year R&D cycle where the only thing it's waiting for is trigger event that will mark the beginning of a commercialization hype cycle.

     

    http://bit.ly/T5BmL7

     

    Today's article and the ones to follow are going to drill down deeper into the hype cycle than anything I've ever written. By the time I'm done you'll all have a much better understanding of Axion's past and future.
    16 Nov 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I've also agreed to do an Axion update for Sunday morning to set the record straight on Altenergystocks after yesterday's somewhat unflattering article.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Do you have a link to the article John? I don't see an unflattering article.
    16 Nov 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Nevermind - it's buried in a small paragraph in an article down low.
    16 Nov 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    TimE--I look forward to more posts from you, over time, about Axion's trucking efforts.
    16 Nov 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    MrI-- I crossed the Oregon border about an hour ago and have 4 hours before reaching my destination - home. I have kept up with the discussion and have found very little to disagree with having followed ePower for over a year and conversations with Andy the inspiration behind the product. I am looking forward to adding my color into the mix but it might be the weekend edition as I want to be available to respond to questions...

     

    PS HTL, by weekend I mean tomorrow...
    16 Nov 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Tim: LoL! It was surreal this morning. But I would be on-board as my time-warped "tomorrow" would've been, obviously, Sunday.

     

    And I would've been griping that I didn't get the Sunday Funnies - the most important part - in my local paper.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Hello Tim,

     

    First of all, have a safe journey back home! Also, this posting is for you to read and hopefully respond to after your arrival home.

     

    Second, I have been reading some blogs about battery powered APU's and have found many complaints by truckers about the batteries not lasting long enough and taking too long to recharge. Some are saying that when they have a 24 hour layover the battery system just won't suffice! Others have said the AC system won't cool enough in weather over 90 degrees. Then one guy posted that he put the units on all of his rigs and he says he likes them but he is idle for only 10 hours at the most. I am hoping that the PbC will take care of most of the issues with exception to long lay overs.

     

    Just wondering if you have any input on the APU's.

     

    Thanks
    16 Nov 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I can't wait Tim!
    16 Nov 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357, pretty good assessment of the downside. Most Owner Operators (OO) prefer a diesel powered APU for these very reasons. Shore-power is also becoming more common as a replacement for the once failed IdleAir system. As I posted, I believe much of the shortcomings of the Battery based HVAC system can be overcome with the Optimized Idle feature.

     

    Personally, I would like to see a small genset used in conjunction with a battery bank. I am thinking about this as a new direction for me...
    18 Nov 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    And the downward pressure continues! $.2499 !

     

    Where are the bottom feeders now? Must be pretty full I guess!
    16 Nov 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >RBrun357 ... In standing with the established considerations afforded to Axion, yesterday a news event was announced as to being forthcoming by month end. It is decidedly good news, if not great, that the PbC will debut in a real world application of remarkable benefit to the environment, economy & company. All good bottom feeders are just waiting for the share price to participate in the event, with what now is a noble tradition, by taking a sever dive in price.
    16 Nov 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    Thanks for your comment and I am right there with you in that strategy! I have my ammo loaded and my stylist on the buy button, hopefully I don't sneeze and hit the button prematurly!
    16 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (409) | Send Message
     
    My name is John. When I woke up this morning, it was 29 days since my last purchase. The therapist/stock adviser voice in my head said to get through 30 days and sell a few of those old $1.86 shares on a move up to $.34, then use the theoretical tax savings to buy twice as much at .29. But then I had to sell another stock on a dead-cat bounce. The cash was speaking to me. Then I listened to the conference call. I couldn't make it. Just adding 2% more shares really is not insignificant for me or Axion. But that truck, and those residential units... I have no regrets.
    16 Nov 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    I'm holding out for .20.
    16 Nov 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Hi John.
    16 Nov 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Sen Grassly, per CNBC reports DOE gave a $1MM check to (AONE) on the very day they filed for BK.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    A123 spent the $2 million that gave rise to the reimbursement right at least a month before they filed their Chapter 11 petition because it takes the DOE at least that long to process checks. While I'm no big A123 fanboy, I believe they were entitled to the money and shouldn't be criticized for receiving it.
    16 Nov 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    http://herit.ag/SxFrES

     

    only skimmed this, but would seem to confirm our collective perception that big Li-ion / EV players unfairly got most of the DOE love money...
    16 Nov 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    It will be fun to see how the lawsuit develops, and more importantly what gets uncovered in discovery.
    16 Nov 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    481086: Good find. Unfortunately, nothing will come of it.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Water over the dam. The evil control center of the empire will not change course. SSDD. Shovel ready, dig that hole.
    16 Nov 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    "nothing will come of it"
    HTL,
    Your so cynical. Harsh repurcussions will follow. Someone high ranking government official will be given a stern look and someone low ranking will continue their government service in Leavenworth
    16 Nov 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Metro: I just can't buy into your "Optimism"! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    16 Nov 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • steeleydock
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Nissan lowers Leaf expectations and target.

     

    http://bit.ly/Utkb35

     

    S
    16 Nov 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Smells like our manipulator is back. Large block sell offer at .25 partially executed, someone puts in a sell at .2499, .2499 pulled and .25 is gone. This is not normal because the person at .25 would have most likely remained having paid a commission on a partial execution. I smell that rotten thing in Denmark again.
    16 Nov 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Way off topic::::

     

    Here is a stock with growth potential!

     

    http://on.mktw.net/PZvnYL

     

    Check out the chart the past couple days!
    16 Nov 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    If Yahoo charting is correct it all happened on almost no volume. It's a pipe dream.
    16 Nov 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    All puns intended.
    16 Nov 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Ha, I agree but think it could be more of a Bong Dream!
    16 Nov 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Extreme Power cutting back on production. GE impact cited.

     

    Grove battery plant to lay off 63 workers

     

    http://bit.ly/TOrtA0
    16 Nov 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Do you think their wind farm fires in Hawaii might have something to do with the fall off in demand?
    16 Nov 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    John, It surely would have had an impact. In all actuality it also could have been the stimulus for the GE agreement in the first place. But in the end the GE agreement would displace some volume. Perhaps some due to the strength of GE's product for some applications and perhaps some due to GE marketing clout / financial strength.

     

    Might also have something to do with the materials in the Extreme Power battery and perhaps manufacturing costs. Don't know exactly how expensive it is to produce but as I recall they had exotic materials along with Pb in their chemistry.

     

    Maybe all kinds of factors causing them to diversify away from one battery chemistry.
    16 Nov 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    As I read the GE press release on the Xtreme Power alliance, the only thing Xtreme Power will provide to GE is their Xtreme Active Control Technology (XACT), "an innovative proprietary control system architecture that offers sophisticated control algorithms, real time response, remote monitoring, and optimized power management."

     

    I'm not a BMS expert, but this sounds a lot like a software license.
    17 Nov 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (409) | Send Message
     
    As recall, Extreme has been secretive about their battery. Not sure if I trust the article, or an outside spokesmen to understand the batttery in depth, but here is a quote:
    "...company spokesman, in Washington, D.C.said that a drop in demand for the company’s lead-acid batteries prompted the layoffs."

     

    They must be desperate. GE can wipe them out, or absorb them without really trying. If all they need is a better battery, they should partner with a company that only has an interest in making batteries and ultimately a single battery component.
    17 Nov 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Axion has any interest in partnering with anybody who can't bring a fair trade to the table. Xtreme can't do that and I'm not sure GE could either.
    17 Nov 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link iindelco. Xtreme has been one to watch--a pioneer. It does not sound good for them. . . My guess is that they are fighting just to survive.
    17 Nov 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, And Extreme has had more advantages via government supported projects. Plus they started out and had a large portion of their development done by some huge players.

     

    Helps you appreciate where Axion is today given where they started as a public company and some of the curves that have been thrown at them. By this I mean challenges like Exide, the NYSEDA cancellation and the overwhelming government support for the other team.
    17 Nov 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Pat, I'd like an "R "please.

     

    Believe that's NYSERDA :-)

     

    Original PR:

     

    http://prn.to/LQ2TPK
    17 Nov 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Just for clarification, there was no NYSERDA cancellation.

     

    Axion was a subcontractor and the prime contractor went bankrupt. When that happens, the subs are SOL.
    17 Nov 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks for sharing the detail and clarifying. It's important to know what happened. My point was the lost opportunity but it should be made clear that Axion didn't lose the opportunity based on their input to the equation. Cancellation was an inappropriate word to use given what happened for sure.
    17 Nov 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Thanks. I must admit though that Vana does it better!
    17 Nov 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    If we didn't have people on Brand X excerpting quotes from the Concentrators and then deliberately misconstruing them I'd be less sensitive. Under the circumstances, prudence and precision are virtues.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Picture on the NS999 back outside the shop but by the doors to the shop 11/11/2012.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZKwBcV
    16 Nov 2012, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    999 is quite outstanding among those dust-covered, bleak, squalid looking peers.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Or only my prejudice?
    16 Nov 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Friday evening I sent a note about the Quarter report and the conf call to my Altoona contact, and his (not surprising since no batteries have been allowed to have been shipped) reply:

     

    "When I stopped by Thursday the 999 was set aside on a storage track to the left of the turntable again buried by one engine."

     

    He chalked the somewhat surprising (to me) amount of "activity" we have seen up to just "prep work."

     

    This person doesn't know anyone that's actually working on the project.

     

    Gonna be a long December, at least on the NSC front.
    16 Nov 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Thanks for sharing.

     

    Bummer! Can't figure it out. I'm down right perplexed. To spend all that money on testing and stall like this. I gotta be missing something which obviously is not hard to do given my seat at the show.
    17 Nov 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    BugEYE, It's probably because the others are actually being worked on! ;(
    17 Nov 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    I prefer to focus on "somewhat surprising (to me) amount of "activity" "/
    17 Nov 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    When I spoke with Vani the other day, I asked about racking issues for the 999 and he said the problem was that the original retrofit used trays for the batteries that restricted airflow and resulted in thermal gradients. I have to imagine that building new racking to improve airflow while withstanding lateral shocks from coupling and uncoupling railcars is tougher challenge than building racking for a stationary PowerCube.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    John, I don't have it at my finger tips but I recall that part of Penn States contribution was in identifying the right racking to accommodate the batteries to support their requirements. I would think engineers would surely understand air flow for heat dissipation, shock, vibration, access etc. I may be wrong but I would have thought this would have been managed by now. This meaning no surprises.

     

    But you're right concerning the trays and it's been discussed in this form in the past. I saw the pictures of the batteries in trays and thought to myself that they must have hired clowns from the Barnum and Bailey circus to do the design for the prior integration. Just horrible for thermal management not to mention the other risks.

     

    If it was managed at all it should be a piece of cake. This should have been behind them if they have any level of program management at all.

     

    They have facilities that have shaker tables that will mimic different transport methods such as rail, OTR spring ride trucks, OTR air ride trucks etc. They should have built a rack and run it with some old and a few good batteries and done the assessment as one step. Penn State and NSC should be very familiar with such facilities. I've managed it a few times for automotive component packaging.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    User462699, Actually I like your way of looking at it. There could be pretty good progress being made where things are mounted and wired pretty readily. This would be the way to do it if you were planning on building more in the future. Building sub-assemblies on the outside and loading them in. Good point.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    Thank goodness Axion diversified its sales pursuits. As NS and auto drag on and on (not exactly the drag race we hoped for), we now have trucks, the HUB and the PC showing signs of life.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Racking issues? I'd have to go back a couple of thousand comments in my comment stream. I can't even recall whether I got this from Axion at one of the meetings I attended, or that it was a flat out guess I had (old job long ago dealt with office systems storage of 1000s of pounds of documents or computer magnetic tapes, including both manual and electronic mobile racking systems).

     

    But I definitely recall that there was a racking issue with Norfolk, maybe as to where best to position the batteries inside the 999. Perhaps it was not only about airflow, but also about where best to strategically place the batteries inside the slug for greatest efficiency, as well as access. Could even be a "gyro" effect with the over the road locos.

     

    These batteries, over their lifespan, will get bumped and jarred around a lot. So having a quest about what gauge of steel with ventilating holes punched into the shelves to use for the racking system also most likely would have to be studied. To the point of how they are bolted, or soldered solid to the frame.

     

    Should they be right down the center? How sturdy should the racking system be? Should the batteries have an aisle in between, with retractable louvers punched into the side of the locomotive? Open on hot days? Closed on cold days?

     

    We know that the PbC or 30HT works well in a vast array of climes, but Norfolk would still have to study what happens, as say in a driving rainstorm, with 90 degree temps way down deep south on the Crescent Line, just as much as dealing with a blizzard in the Appalacians.

     

    Lots of heat generated, and what to do with the effects of 1000s of jarring episodes, along with large temperature variations may likely have something to do with the delays.
    17 Nov 2012, 03:31 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Racking issues - I'm having the same temperature, access and humidity issues in my wine cellar (more of a space under the stairs, but wine cellar sounds nice). Wonder if I could get a consulting gig with NS on the 999.
    17 Nov 2012, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    BugEYE and Iindelco,

     

    Maybe the others are dusty because they have been doing work. It will be great to see the NS 999 covered with dust after working rather than being worked on.
    17 Nov 2012, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I guess from a purely financial point of view (and NS must be trying to save money anyway they can given their significant loss of coal revenues,) you would made damn sure you've selected in the right one (dotting every "i," crossing every "t," and redundant testing) before you spend even more money on designing and potentially having subcontractors bid the perfect racking system for that particular battery. Throw in the potential differences between OTR and switcher and maybe that muddied the waters and led to more delays. Shock/vibration data and modeling on every route?? !!

     

    Especially so if there's a (sub?) culture of disbelief that any battery could work? And of course the overwhelming need not to be embarrassed again.

     

    http://bit.ly/IMQLaE

     

    Now where did I put my PERT chart?
    17 Nov 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, Using a shot gun is one approach. It still requires talent and doesn't assure "a chicken in every pot." Ya still gotta get each step of the ready, fire, aim thing correct and in the right order. If you're hungry it does however help to have more targeted opportunities. Sometimes.
    17 Nov 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Hmmmm. Sounds like an engineering exercise. The phrase design and build comes to mind. In that order. And then as you suggest verify. My memory says that Penn State was contributing to the design thing some time ago. The phrase in the business is "system engineering".

     

    I hope they are not looking for the ball on the ground. So, We chatter while we wait. And NS (and the autos) is giving us lots of time to chatter. Hopefully NS and the autos don't have us "talking it to death".
    17 Nov 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Maya: "To the point of how they are bolted, or soldered solid to the frame".

     

    Possible that will be a little more complex? Substantial protection from severe bumps and jars can be provided via several methods: pads, various types of suspension, a certain amount of "flex" built into the rack design itself, ...

     

    Likely some lateral and longitudinal flexibility would be good too. None have to require a lot of space - a surprising amount of dampening can be provided with very little space for the cushioning effect.

     

    I've been wondering if this might be part of the reason for some delay - maybe mechanical stress effects on the batteries was observed in the earlier NS-999 tests and they want to get it designed this time to minimize those effects?

     

    No point in having a battery that might last 5-10 years and then just "breaking" it in a couple of years.

     

    Speculating as usual,
    HardToLove
    17 Nov 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Certainly no soldering of the racks but much more likely welding.

     

    Once the design is agreed I am certain that any metal fabrication shop could bash out the necessary racks in a matter of days.
    17 Nov 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >NS999 Racking Problem Enthusiasts ... I'm late to this rodeo. Racking might be the easy explanation but, as long as we're speculating, I would think that the problem might be in regen brakes and how to dissipate the heat via a passive system. Yes, this can be modeled with computers yet there has not ever been a solution put into steel.

     

    Switchers don't really need dynamic brakes so you'll notice that purpose built units don't have them. The NS999 can't live without them. That brings up the problem of what to do with all that heat generated by the system when you don't need all or part of it. The NS999 doesn't have the resistor bank or fans to handle this little problem and there is no room in the current configuration. To a certain extent the system can be turned on & off and hand the braking to the wheel shoes but when the batteries need some charging the current inrush might be more than is needed. The rest needs to be dissipated as heat via the internal resistance of the batteries and "probably" a greatly reduced resistor bank until the dynamic (regenerative) system can be shutdown.

     

    This leads to the racking problem. Consider that the instantaneous rejection of 1000 hp of in-rushing current will need at least 2500 cfm of air (possibly a lot more). Not a lot of air but it could be very sensitive to obstructions. Cooling needs to be a mostly passive.

     

    So there is my speculation of a possible physical problem that could be slowing the project down in reference to racking.
    17 Nov 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    All true Albert.

     

    But sometimes when you have internal resources efficiency is not the number one motivation. There are forces to contend with when you have a union shop. You often don't have the latitude to use your internal resources where they are most efficient and to outsource the rest. Especially when business slows. Life spent dancing on the 4 inch balancing beam.

     

    That being said; I'm sure with the line of work being done at Altoona they are pretty competent in the area. But it all comes down to those darn priorities.
    17 Nov 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    The speculated number of batteries in the NS999 was about 1,000 but now we hear 800+. Wonder if the difference is greater efficiency or is it possibly to allow for a heat dissipation component?
    17 Nov 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    DRich: You've probably detailed the most or one of the more likely issues. I'm thankful that at least the batteries are known to have relatively low internal resistance (less internal heat to dissipate) when in the "sweet spot" and a wide operating temperature range. Without those attributes, it sounds as if that might be the death of the project right there, due to the heat that would be added from the batteries otherwise.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Nov 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Don't discount the regen system as an isolated problem. The batteries can dissipate heat while under charge. When the BMS shuts down the charger the regen, which would be the motors and/or the generator goes from warm to "Easy Bake" in a heartbeat with nothing but air (I assume) to cool it. I haven't a clue where that heat would show itself but air flow would be critical for long term least maintenance service.

     

    This is where good engineering design parts company with computer modeling.
    17 Nov 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    DR, I don't quite see how there could be any excess energy which would need to be dissipated as heat... assuming the switcher yards are level throughout. Invoking conservation of energy, it seems to me that if a fully charged NS999 connected to a load goes from a standing start to some speed, it is going to use a certain quantity of energy in the batteries to accelerate the load to that speed, obviously converting the chemical energy to kinetic energy... then, as the load decelerates at its destination, ideally the kinetic energy is converted by the brakes into electrical energy and then back into chemical energy in the battery bank... now none of these conversions is 100% efficient so therefore the amount of energy that needs to be put back into the battery bank has to be less than the amount originally taken out of it to accelerate in the first place---so if the battery bank can accept energy at a rate large enough to equal the amount coming out of the brakes then it would seem that no heat-dissipating resistor bank should be needed. That to me is the primary elegance of the whole design.... keep re-using the initial energy in the fully-charged battery bank, sloshing it back and forth between chemical (+electrostatic) and kinetic by way of electrical... losing a little each time due to friction and internal resistance losses until a fresh recharge is needed.. Am I missing something major?

     

    Obviously some cooling needs to be provided to the batteries and motor/generators and electronics, but that is different than banks of resistors expressly incorporated to dissipate excess electrical energy as heat (though now that I think about it, perhaps some would want to be included for emergency braking purposes)
    17 Nov 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    AB: The reduced number of batteries needed may be from switching from the PbC to the 30HT.
    17 Nov 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Ahaaa!
    17 Nov 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... No, I don't think your missing anything related to normal operation. The design is as you said. The batteries are the substitute for the resistor banks used in dynamic brakes and at a minimum require that 2500 cfm of cooling air. It can and most likely would come from the hood vents while the loco is moving. The only assumption that I find incorrect is the idea that switchyards are flat & level. For the most part they are close but this is not an absolute designed into diesel serviced yards. Then there are sorting & ordering yards with intentional grades that need switcher service. With the weight we're talking about even minor grades might overwhelm what the batteries might want to accept on occasion. The design would be made to work with the extreme instantaneous conditions. Normal would take care of itself.

     

    Since I'm just spit-balling here I'm just throwing out a possibility. All this might be handled by the BMS or other systems. I just don't know but even normal requires the ability to deliver some X of minimum airflow without short circuit, dead zones or eddys. In a passive cooling system it makes racking more than just supporting the load.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    48, While it is true that there is not added energy coming into the system except when on the charger the shuttling of energy between the electric motor(s) and the battery bank has a level of losses in the various components in the circuit. The more energy shuttled based on speed, time and frequency would determine the amount of energy losses that need to be managed in the system components. How this heat is managed given peak low and high temperatures and given their timing relative to when the battery bank is charged all need to be understood. This allows for appropriate design of the system which would include things for cooling such as heat sinks, air flow and possibly even some form of liquid cooling in the electronics. This and possibly safety factors would lead to the decision to include a resistive load as part of normal operations or not.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Thanks gents for both answers. Each helped to complete my understanding...
    17 Nov 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Surely there were heat gain issues in the original NS999 iteration.

     

    OTR engines to me would not present problems as they are on the move.

     

    Slugs might be more of an issue but of course they switch off when not in use.

     

    So will the slugs need substantial cooling while in use and when charging and the OTR little if any?
    17 Nov 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    48, One other thing I'd like to mention. Based on what is learned in the testing of the batteries vs the needs of the NS999 function, the designers my make a decision to waste some energy in the dynamic braking portion of the cycle to optimize battery life. If you have enough energy available to do the work load of the switchers function based on what the industrial engineers determine is necessary there is no sense focusing on energy recovery only excluding battery life. All comes down to a cost analysis.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I think it's a good thing to have our more technically astute members devoting some skull time to the challenges NS is facing instead of thinking like investors who only want to know "why is it taking so damned long?"

     

    We all know that the application is a formidable challenge, but sometimes the discussion seems to assume that changing the batteries and hooking them up is all NS needs to do.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >AlbertinBermuda ... I think you have that slightly backwards. Both will deal with similar current rejection problems. The NS999 deals with them on an instantaneous basis while the the OTR would deal with them on a long duration basis. Yard grade changes are measured in inches and feet per thousand feet of track. The OTR deals with them over miles of braking required to control speed. The OTR has the advantage of being able to use the resistor banks of the companion locomotives to reject current and/or might carry its own resistors & fans powered by the rejected current.

     

    So many ways to deal with the problems. I have to admit to being a little jealous of the NS engineers getting to work on these really fun, first of their kind problems.
    17 Nov 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I have no particular knowledge of railroad switching yard technology, but I believe someone explained to me once that railroads use gravity to move their cars when assembling trains by grading their yards so that a yard slug only has to put a car in motion rather than to drive it exactly to a specific spot.

     

    I might have remembered this incorrectly, or it might have been bad information in the first place.

     

    My 2 cents.
    17 Nov 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >billa_from _sf ... Quite true. It is called "HUMPING", but it is not used for all types of cars, most notably tankers, and not everywhere.

     

    http://bit.ly/TKvnb2
    17 Nov 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Lawsuit Alleges “Corruption and Negligence” at Department of Energy

     

    http://herit.ag/SxFrES

     

    They should be aware of the case: EXIDE-AXPW

     

    Good day-Carlos
    17 Nov 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    "I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you to find that gambling is going on here!" :-)
    17 Nov 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    My favorite line from TG in his CC wrap-up: "The undeniable cost efficiency of PbC batteries compared to lithium ion batteries is becoming better understood by potential end-users many of whom have formally ASSUMED that lithium ion would be the adopted battery of choice in spite of its very high cost and its significant safety problems."

     

    Before beginning my DD, I had made the same assumption and spent a long time looking for the "better battery" investment opportunity.
    17 Nov 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    That is how I got here too, Edmund. I approached the investment believing energy storage was going to be a major emerging trend in our economy during this decade. I began my journey with the assumption it was going to be lithium-ion, but I knew that if there was a simpler product that didn't re-invent the wheel that that would be the better investment. I stumbled upon Axion and JP's writing and the PbC seemed to fit perfectly into that mold i.e. readily availible materials, recyclable, traditional form-factor but with special characteristics that seem to fill a void left by the traditional storage devices. Manufacturing commercially was still a challenge but I believe that has been overcome. The rest is just wait and see...with fingers crossed.
    17 Nov 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Remember when you kids ask ... Dad, how did you live without cellphones and DVRs?

     

    I still remember Fallout Shelters.
    http://bit.ly/U6j8de

     

    Will we one day wonder how we managed without Microgrids?
    When Homeland Defense changed to seriously include power considerations?

     

    Lessons from Sandy: how one community in storm's path kept lights on

     

    President Obama toured Sandy-hit areas Thursday, even as some communities still wait for power. Princeton University avoided power outages by using a 'microgrid' – and the idea is spreading.

     

    By Mark Clayton | Christian Science Monitor – Thu, Nov 15, 2012

     

    (via Yahoo)

     

    http://yhoo.it/TJQ6eT
    17 Nov 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Related:

     

    Date: Nov. 14, 2012

     

    Electric Power Grid 'Inherently Vulnerable' to Terrorist Attacks;
    Report Delayed in Classification Review, Will Be Updated

     

    http://bit.ly/SU8QJV

     

    Bloomberg take on the report:

     

    Thousands Seen Dying If Terrorists Attack U.S. Power Grid
    By Brian Wingfield and Jeff Bliss - Nov 14, 2012

     

    http://bloom.bg/QkSLBm

     

    Maybe we could create a few jobs starting to address these issues?

     

    Starting in areas affected by natural disasters?
    17 Nov 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I like the terms 'island mode' and 'islanding'. Thats relatively new and I think it's really going to resonate with the masses.

     

    D
    17 Nov 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    OT, but yet another example of getting the government we deserve:

     

    http://bit.ly/QkUDKn
    17 Nov 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Yep 48, There is no hardship for lower income people when you use 30% of your corn crop to make ethanol after a poor harvest. But they studied it right?
    17 Nov 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    11/16/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied from the instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 420, MaxTrSz: 23500, Vol 122091, AvTrSz: 4884
    Min. Pr: 0.2450, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2496
    # Buys, Shares: 14 41621, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2505
    # Sells, Shares: 11 80470, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2492
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.93 (34.1% “buys”), DlyShts 31850 (26.09%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.58%

     

    The first thing I want to mention is that TB's next buy point of $0.16 would mean price has regressed to 2003 levels and all gains in the business prospects and revenues and irons in the fire and volume and ... have mattered not one whit to the &*(^%#$#%#) market yet. I don't understand how this might come about when other highly-touted stocks fall by the wayside in spite of strong government support and Axion survives with almost no governmental benefit at all. Obliviously (sic) the market doesn't get it. Great for crying “free market” and “if government would get out of the way” but the market actions are speaking louder than the words. Obviously addicted to government support, including grants and QE-infinity.

     

    On the traditional TA front one of the few things that I think may be worth noting from the last few days is that our close Friday was almost precisely at the “reversion to the mean” price of the range encompassed by the low of $0.2018 on Mon. 11/12 through the high of $0.29 the day of the report, 11/15. Since this was on very low volume as well and the price is sitting right on the descending support of our falling trading channel, there's a chance that we could see some push up resulting from this. As could be expected, the oscillators have again weakened though so that few are suggesting upward price movement like they were a few days back.

     

    Momentum has strengthened to ~0.96 from the ~0.86 I mentioned recently. That's still not a positive though – just less negative. On the day of the conference call we pushed to the falling 50-day SMA ($0.2888) and promptly got rejected, closing at $0.2599. The high was also just below my experimental 13-period upper Bollinger band, $0.2917. We have pulled away from the lower band, but still haven't moved back to mid-range of the two limits.

     

    The ADX is quite close to making a bullish cross, but it will require a couple days of bullish behavior (i.e a higher “buy” percentage) to actually accomplish the cross.

     

    On my experimental charts stuff, daily short sales continues to make the choppy moves towards more normal range, moving again above all four averages and hitting smack-dab on the rising long-term trend line.

     

    Buy:sell seems to be moving towards more normal as well, now being above the 10-day “buy” average of 38%. It has flattened and looks like it may start moving towards the longer-term averages (46%, 47% and 51% for the 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively). It doesn't currently look like it'll be a fast move though unless some larger percentages of “buys” are seen over the next few days.

     

    Average trade sizes remain very small, but have recovered to what I consider the low end of retail trading sizes. It's still below all the averages though.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff is omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Nov 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    ePower -- now this is a 10 when it comes to a AGM drop in replacement. In addition to the weight reduction you have performance gains on the charge/discharge and risk aversion on the key component of the project - the storage.

     

    Only someone holding on to a steering wheel that guides 80k down a grade truly understands the amount of power that is stored in the vehicle. Each of us have been caught, at lease once, in a gear that is too high for the grade. If caught early its a visit to the red end of the tachometer and the hope to catch a lower gear. Otherwise, its a smoking hot ride into the sand pit of shame with hope of no collisions along the way.

     

    This same feeling emerges when a four wheeler wants to turn left across a double yellow and you have no where to go. The power pushing through the braking system is massive and when converted to electricity is equally massive and the hope would be to have a storage system that could capture every bit of it.

     

    Where would the charging set point be for the AGM before the power was diverted and dissipated into heat? the PbC? My point is the PbC should show huge gains by being able to accept most, if not all, of the power generated from braking. My examples were a bit extreme but my motive was to point out an important safety benefit of an electric drive in a class 8 truck. It also saves on brake pads. On the flip side, to prevent the driver from taking the truck down to the local drag strip, the discharge rate should probably be governed.

     

    The idea behind the ePower project is to model the railroad engine in a class 8 truck by reducing the cubic displacement of the engine and attaching it to a generator to create a genset sized to run a peak efficiency over the flat topology of the region in which the truck will operate. The transmission will be replaced with a motor sized to the steepest incline of the region and a storage system sized to make up the difference. For this example we will assume the sizing also includes a contingency in reserve in each piece.

     

    It is my understanding that there are two vehicles in operation and actually running freight under contract on a dedicated run. This keeps the trucks running over the same route and the data gathered is of great benefit for the designer. I can't remember the exact route but they are running both directions east/west in the midwest. The terrain is relatively flat with a slight incline in one direction (west) and decline in the other (east). This is the terrain where I expect this configuration will do the best. The figures of 12-14 mpg seems feasible to me. A modern truck with 2010 EPA standards would get between 7-9 mpg if it was designed for a given route at a give speed (slow).

     

    Can this truck run the Rockies? I think if you sized the genset and motor accordingly and used the power saved in storage on the minor grades or flat lands then my answer is yes/maybe. However, I have no idea if the gains would be the same (percentage based).

     

    This is where the wheels began to wobble for me. In an OTR operation the truck must accommodate all the terrain in the lower 48 states. In modern trucks (post 2000) the engine and its electronics is a very big part of onboard electronic system and it is unclear to me as to how a retrofit would handle the absence of the engine control unit (ECU). There is also the acceptance factor.

     

    The trucking industry is no better at change than the railroad industry. Can you imagine the response to the most asked question between drivers when someone sees something new "What engine/HP you got it in there?" Drivers are very fond, and take ownership, of the engines that pull them around. You should have heard the commotion when CAT announced they would no longer provide engines for the class 8 market. Auto shift transmissions are fantastic (I have one) but there are many drivers who claim they will never drive one. Now I am not saying they can't be turned, if there was a Capstone under the hood there would be a line a mile long just to have a look.

     

    About the retrofit idea of the trucking industry paralleling the railroad industry and the funding being build in to the maintenance schedule. That is, a maintenance schedule that would proactively pull a truck off the road to completely redo the drive train for another million miles. I don't see this happening anymore in my corner of the industry. The engine is the most monitored piece and when it gets close to failure the first action is to perform and in-frame rebuild ($10-15k). Everything else is taken to near failure prior to replacement which puts each component on its own course. The large fleets usually exit their tractors between 300-500k miles to avoid major repairs. The potential market for the retrofit idea might be in day cabs for FedEx, UPS, Conway and other hub based carriers who keep their trucks for a very long time and have defined routes (not my world).

     

    If ePower would let me keep my engine and replace just the transmission I would be very interested. The savings might not be as high but neither would the cost or intrusion into the existing systems. Sorry about the length of this post. The better writers among us could have gotten the information across with just a fraction of the words it took me. I will assemble my thoughts on the APU later today or tomorrow. Of these two, I believe the APU to be the one more likely to grow legs the soonest and run the furthest...
    17 Nov 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    Tim: No one could have put it better and if it were any shorter it would not be as informative.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Nov 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Great comment Tim. I love people who know more about this stuff than I do. Based on what I know about trucking (which isn't much) I tend to agree with your assessment that the APU is a more important market. At the same time, a Class 8 tractor that can run fixed routes and double fuel economy in the process is a pretty sexy beast, especially if the beast needs 50 PbC batteries.
    17 Nov 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for taking the time for that very helpful reply Tim!

     

    Once they get the bugs out, I think ePower will want to focus on getting fleets (with fixed routes that fit) to demo their product.

     

    In the interest of further exploring opportunities among independent operators, they might retrofit Tim's rig for free and hire him as a consultant.
    17 Nov 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    You are welcome. Seldom do I get the chance to pay back the knowledge that I receive from this group. The data we get from this little project is priceless.

     

    Free is good but I would still want to keep my engine <smile>. I wouldn't need an APU though. I could for for weeks on that bank of PbC's...
    17 Nov 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Tim! Great job!
    17 Nov 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Thanks for your comments.
    17 Nov 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Do you Tim (or anyone else) know how much less engine ePower expects to be able to get away with? JP mentioned 200 hp plus or minus, so I'm thinking they are looking at an engine (genset) that is only 1/2 to 1/3 the size of a typical straight diesel on-highway class 8 truck.
    17 Nov 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, class 8 engines range from 400-600 hp with the average being between 450-500hp so your thinking seems right to me. I doubt going any smaller than 200 hp would be of benefit.
    17 Nov 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Their short video with captions specifies a 197 hp diesel-electric genset in the second set of captions.

     

    http://bit.ly/QLeu5p
    18 Nov 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4199) | Send Message
     
    "class 8 engines range from 400-600 hp with the average being between 450-500hp"

     

    Thanks for that insight, Tim.
    18 Nov 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Glad to have something to offer. This is a pretty impressive group...
    18 Nov 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I keep wondering what's in the trailer ... in particular, how much weight.

     

    How can you judge the acceleration (other than the obvious no shifting required) without a consideration of what/how much you're hauling?

     

    Does Class-8 refer to the size of the engine, or the weight it can transport?
    19 Nov 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    probably not, but if you use max weight allowance #s for a route you can make statements about acceleration. with that max as your assumption
    19 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    wt, the weight it can transport or more specifically the Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR). Class 8 begins at 33k# and can go well beyond 100k#...
    19 Nov 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • trevhug
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    John on 16 Nov you wrote:

     

    " Given the work that's been done over the last couple years and the results Axion's demonstrated, I believe it should be a $2.50 to $5 dollar stock and the only thing standing in the way at this point is fear."

     

    Will you please help us by expanding on the reasons for this fear and your assessment of their practical validity. I assume the PbC has been proven to work as claimed, beyond any doubt, and there seems to be an enormous need in the various fields to which the PbC can be applied.

     

    Is the major fear the possibility of inability to raise further financial backing in 2013 as suggested by the Nov 15 article in Altenergystocks? How much must be raised to remain solvent? I seem to remember you saying the possibility of bankruptcy is very low. Is this correct? Maybe you intend to address these issues in your future articles:

     

    "Today's article (http://bit.ly/T5BmL7) and the ones to follow are going to drill down deeper into the hype cycle than anything I've ever written. By the time I'm done you'll all have a much better understanding of Axion's past and future." (Nov 15)

     

    Your writings and insights are much appreciated, as is the humor of your comments to your pea-nut gallery critics. Thanks!
    18 Nov 2012, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I think the biggest fear right now is that any price movement will merely instigate another round of selling pressure. It's one thing to intellectually agree with my theory that the big uglies are out of stock. It's another thing entirely to spend three years in a foxhole where you're constantly being bombarded by enemy artillery and then stick your head out as soon as the shooting stops. These three years have been a dreadful time for Axion stockholders as the company did great but the stock sucked.

     

    Besides, bottom feeders almost never rise to the bait until they've gone hungry for a long time. For now, most Axionistas are trying to digest their last meal instead of looking for the next one.

     

    What the market really needs is some new blood to stick their toes in the water after watching from the sidelines for months or years. It will happen. I'm just not sure when it will happen.

     

    FWIW I just published a lengthy article on altenergystocks that provides detailed answers to many of your questions. With a little luck, it may get picked up by SA.
    18 Nov 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic article over on AltEnergy, John. I tried to post a comment, and I guess due to my previous slandering of the sham article you responded to, I have been determined as a potential "malicious commenter." The red-lettered message asked me to resubmit my comment at a later time.

     

    What a hoot!
    18 Nov 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Your comment actually got posted four times. I deleted three of them but left the most recent.

     

    PS: Glad you liked it. Now the ball is in SA's court to decide whether they want to pick the piece up or not.
    18 Nov 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    OOPS! Now the post is up...four times!

     

    Not real happy how that redundancy occurred.

     

    I left another post in hopes only one post will remain, the others deleted.
    18 Nov 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Maya, you just wrote an excellent article, a great job and an excellent summary. In my opinion you do not need anything.
    Carlos.
    18 Nov 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    John: I didn't consider it that lengthy, considering all the ground that was covered.

     

    IMO, it qualifies as an "Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Axion But Were Afraid to Ask".

     

    Well done!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Nov 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    It's a long way from Everything You Wanted to Know and really more of an overview from 20,000 feet, but it does tie together a number of themes I've discussed in detail but never really tied together.

     

    Particularly from this group, I appreciate the kind words.
    18 Nov 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    A link to John's article
    http://bit.ly/yE6bt4
    18 Nov 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    The article is Perfect and I believe the timing is also Perfect!

     

    I will be sharing your article amongst my contacts as it provides the answers to many questions along with the company timeline, in all it is a great informative story. It ends leaving a reader curious as to the next chapters! Can't wait myself, don't want to put the book down!
    18 Nov 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Yeah. So true, JP.

     

    Someday cigars from Russia will taste better than they do now ;-)
    19 Nov 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning:

     

    ..These three years have been a dreadful time for Axion stockholders as the company did great but the stock sucked.

     

    I have taken three years to buy low and continue to do so if falling.

     

    Have a good day-Carlos
    18 Nov 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18031) | Send Message
     
    "Duke Energy to test new uses for old EV batteries".

     

    The competition is slowly emerging. I'm suspicious of the claim "... GM expects to have 500,000 vehicles with some form of electrification on the road by 2017, implying a healthy market for recyclable batteries".

     

    But even if they are correct, the adoption rates and "wear-out" rate should prevent too many of these batteries from being availble too soon.

     

    http://bit.ly/XSqQL2

     

    HardToLove
    18 Nov 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I love the part about GM expecting to have 500,000 vehicles on the road with "some form of electrification," including the Volt and eAssist gas-electric hybrid technology on the Buick LaCrosse and Regal and the Chevrolet Malibu.
    18 Nov 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (409) | Send Message
     
    The news is all good for Axion. There is evidence on multiple fronts that PbC is a choice that will have a positive economic return. (The payback time has to be less than the life of the product, and in most cases significantly less.)

     

    In the investment world, I see quite a bit of re-allocation out of all stocks. Capital gains rates and dividends are likely to rise. The memory of 2000 and 2007 are pretty fresh. Second term presidents spend more time defending the first term than addressing problems. European problems are more likely to spread than get fixed. The net effect is a move to hunker down, and see what happens.

     

    I'm still buying Axion, but someone someone who just sold a dividend paying household name stock in fear of the unknown may not be interested in a speculative play. That is my take on investor sentiment now.
    18 Nov 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    My thoughts on the depressed price of AXPW:

     

    "Lead" and "carbon" are two of the dirtiest words in today's politically correct green environment. The idea that a revolutionary technology is being born of such non-exotic elements fights an uphill battle in capturing the imaginations of most speculators.

     

    The worry that struggling economies around the world might elect to place on hold green proposals of dubious urgency economically and environmentally.

     

    The failure to date of AXPW to translate significant progress in the lab and in identification of potential markets into actual revenue growth indicative of a breakthrough technology.

     

    With reference to John's hype cycle, the initial announcement of BMW's investment in PbC testing had great speculative value as compared to today's much more realistic expecation of business from that source despite an unexplained slowness to commit to what seems to have become essentially a tested and proven technology. For speculators, this slowness translates into "there must be significant problems."
    18 Nov 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    My newest article on altenergystocks includes a four year price chart which clearly shows that NONE of the major events in the last three years have been enough to move the needle. Even the chart in the header of this Instablog tells the tale. The 10-day VWMA was $.50 on September 21st, it peaked at $.70 a month later and then promptly fell back to the high $.50s.

     

    That is not a reasonable market response when a manufacturer of BMWs stature takes on the podium at the biggest battery conference in the world and wraps its arms around an unknown R&D stage technology that isn't even a product.

     

    In 2009 the Exide partnership took the stock from $.85 to $2.10. Then the price drifted back down to about $1.25 before the DOE grant to Exide with Axion boosted the price to $2.75.

     

    Major news events in micro-caps generate doubles and triples, not 40%.
    18 Nov 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^
    ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^
    New concentrator available.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv
    vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv vvvvv
    18 Nov 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (409) | Send Message
     
    The re-purpose idea is still alive.
    "Second Life for Old Electric-Car Batteries: Guardians of the Electric Grid"
    "If there is a market in stationary power for spent batteries, consumers could recognize this as an increased resale value at end of life, however small".

     

    http://bit.ly/XSFCRL

     

    As a former Electrical Engineer, now software developer, it seem rather complicated. I like working on proof-of-concept projects. You can focus on the proving that you can get it to work at all and don't need to worry about all of the details that turn it in to a product.

     

    I picture a site with 5 to 100 large batteries. The batteries come from multiple manufacturers, and each manufacturer is has different sizes and generations of batteries. Each battery unit, made up of many sub battery units, has it's own charge and discharge characteristics. You'd need to carefully re-characterize capacity and charge states every time it's used. Readers of this group and conference call listeners know that the utility will score you (and change the rate they pay) based on whether you actually deliver the power you claim you can. Finally, one has to make a determination of when each battery is no longer economically useful. There has to be a field crew that replaces individual packs. On the safety side, is there a higher chance that any of these old batteries that spent years bouncing around in a car and are well beyond the warranty life the could catch fire? Maybe the internal battery electronics problems result in overcharge and overheating. One fault and the whole building burns. Bad publicity. In the end, they still have to be disposed of.

     

    There was a house fire in my neighborhood a few weeks ago. I counted 15 fire trucks. Lots of water. It started in the garage, no Lithium was involved. Most of the fire trucks were there to keep the fire from spreading to other houses. I wonder how much water they would used if there were a few re-purposed LiOn car batteries plugged in?
    18 Nov 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8072) | Send Message
     
    Probably just as much since lithium ions do not have the same characteristics as lithium metal.....
    19 Nov 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    National Geographic all about reuse:

     

    http://on.natgeo.com/U...
    19 Nov 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
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