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Axion Power Concentrator 178, Nov. 21: John Petersen's Axion History & Prospects; Q3 '12 Rpt; SAE Truck APU App; Rosewater & Queens Univ. Partner On Distributed Energy Study; 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems" 217 comments
On 11/18 John Petersen published "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" on Altenergystocks.com. It was also, unusually, published by SA. It's an excellent summation of Axion Power International's past trials, tribulations, successes and prospects going forward. Highly recommended, especially if you are new to Axion's story.
On 11/14/2012 Axion filed their quarterly report and put a news item on their web site that summarizes management's comments and provides a link to the conference call (available for 90 days and worth hearing). On 11/15/2012 Seeking Alpha published a transcript of the conference call.
Due to an apparent slowdown of the Edgar system, the quarterly report was deemed not filed on time, which Tom Granville mentioned at the start of the conference call. They have filed an exculpatory report of that incident.
John Petersen was able to obtain and post a copy of Axion's SAE 10/2/2012 Truck APU Application power-point presentation. Many thanks to him for his continued contributions. We see even more cycles applied to the (apparently modified?) PbC # 2 in their testing, showing even greater capability.
On 11/11/2012 there was an announcement that RoseWater joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study "... to conduct a study to evaluate the impact of a widely-distributed energy storage system backed by RoseWater's Residential Energy Storage Hub on an electrical grid". "... The results of the study, which is already underway, will greatly benefit all companies and individuals involved in energy supply, distribution and consumption, including policy makers, regulators, electric utilities, and storage systems manufacturers". Other information makes it worth a read. Look under the November 2012 releases if you come late to the party.
John Petersen's participation as a presenter at the 13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC, has provided additional benefits: he has posted, a brief instablog that identifies slides with information and data he'd not seen before and considers important in Axion's presentation, "Axion PbC Lead-Carbon Hybrid Battery/Supercapacitor ,Operational Stability of PbC Batteries and Battery Systems", to which he has provided a link.
John did a bang-up job on his presentation, in our opinion, and has graciously permitted us to link to a SlideRocket Version of his presentation. It is highly recommended that you take the time, around 20 minutes, to view this if you've not seen it. It is not focused on Axion, but presents some opportunities and challenges facing the LA battery industry at-large.
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John Petersen has provided price and volume charts updated through 11/9/2012.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
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John's Petersen's tracking of the APC comment activity has been updated through 11/17/2012. Up to 35.4K comments now.
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Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:
The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.
Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.
Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.
Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
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Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.
Enjoy!
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.
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This post has 217 comments:
Work hard to keep it that way!
HardToLove
HardToLove
Now just half a year later the PowerCube, Railroads, and trucking are getting the push. All three basically are the same product in different sizes. All three use the sweet spot of the PbC.
Back to basics while awaiting a decision by an automotive OEM.
Things don't always go according to schedule when growing a microcap. Its nice to know that management can listen and readjust when needed.
Exide: Many Alliances, Fewer Results
http://bit.ly/yE6bt4
However with more than 400 million WC and some 30 million held by an escrow and years of fooling around, Exide need to settle somewhere, or do they?
Just saying!.
I also think that is the only solution that has EXIDE if wants to avoid a catastrophe on your finances.
No matter what happened, but come back with a check for $32 M. On the other hand the more rapid return better for them, but without threats like JV with MAXWELL
Carlos.
"In the same year (2009), Exide signed a memorandum of understanding with Axion Power Technologies (AXPW: Nasdaq) for the future purchase of Axion’s PbC batteries and the license of Axion’s lead-carbon electrode technologies. Exide never got around to formalizing the relationship or ordering Axion batteries, but a few months after the MOU was signed the affiliation made good reading in Exide’s application for Recovery Act funds from the Department of Energy. The application named Axion as a partner and promised to increase manufacturing capacity at its Columbus and Bristol facilities where Exide was to produce Absorbed Glass Mat (AGM) batteries “using lead-carbon electrodes for micro-hybrid applications.” In recent discussions Exide has begun referring to the ARRA-funded capacity augmentation in terms of batteries “with or without” lead-carbon technologies - enhancements that Axion was ostensibly to bring to the party."
I don't fully understand how XIDE got away with it if they did not comply with the terms of the grant but it sounds like they were not required to. Maybe they substituted their own carbon paste instead.
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 22500, Vol 255015, AvTrSz: 3985
Min. Pr: 0.2420, Max Pr: 0.2590, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2497
# Buys, Shares: 53 211614, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2506
# Sells, Shares: 11 43401, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2453
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 4.88:1 (83% “buys”), DlyShts 1684 (0.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.88%
There were two pre-market trades totaling 4K at $0.25 and one AH trade of 285 shares at $0.2509. These are not included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add them in, the daily short percentage drops to 0.66% from the reported 0.67%. If we also add them to the short sales, the percentage moves to 2.34%.
Daily short sales continue at an abnormally low level. This suggests that the market-makers are long (or lying to FINRA about shorts? Nah, they wouldn't) and since recent daily short sales don't suggest a lot of shares from prior sell orders flowing in (in K: 79.74, 35.55, 13.78, 31.85, 13.42 and 1.68 today) we have to look for other mechanisms that allow the market-makers to sell shares without flagging them as “short”. We have the normal(?) inter-broker and intra-broker (I'm favoring this one) trades that could allow this condition to occur. With the same two or three at the top of the bid and ask, essentially, all day long, it's easy to guess that intra-broker trades are making a higher percentage of trades than is normal. This seems more likely on very low volumes, as we've been seeing recently.
Another possibility is that the market-maker(s) are being more active in accumulating and distributing shares over very short time frames to increase their profits. This might be supported by yesterday's odd action. To wit ...
The day began with 2 pre-market trades (very unusual) totaling 4K at $0.25. Through 11:39 there were 22 trades totaling 84,084 shares that were all buys at $0.25 and one $0.2499, except one “sell” of 900 shares at $0.2441. The buy:sell was 81.32:1. At 11:54 price started moving around, moving to $0.2550 and going as low as $0.2420 through the rest of the day with a VWAP of $0.2496. Even with that, you can see from the “buys” percentage above that buying was still relatively strong. Looking back at my experimental charts, normally when “buys” were excessively high there was a high percentage of short sales.
There was a change in this behavior in October and that change has continued through the present. I'm going to hazard a guess that there's a lot more intra-broker trades or the market-makers are getting “pre-loaded” with shares as folks at the brokerages started doing things based on ... the election? Expected tax effects since the election? Clearing “losers” off the books before EOY? I can't say, but behavior, as evidenced by market-maker shorts, has changed.
Leaving that topic ...
On the traditional TA front, volume was flat (~1K variation), price again penetrated the descending support (~$0.244) and recovered above it and weakened into the close to end the day right there. This caused the oscillators I follow to become muddled again and I can draw no hint as to near-term direction from them. At least we are hanging in the descending trading channel, albeit at the bottom of it.
My experimental 13-period Bollingers are now converging, so that suggests we might just twaddle around here (also called “consolidation”) for a while.
On my experimental charts, volume finished just below all its averages, short sales doing the same, average trade sizes doing the same. Only the buy:sell blew away all its averages, continuing a recent general rising trend since 11/8. This has been sustained long enough and strongly enough to ...
Cause all my original inflection point calculations, except the five-day, to start curling up and sustain that attitude. Since we know on this version the five-day usually goes contrary after suggesting a price rise and before the others also indicate a rise, and the five-day is now going down as these others rise, those suggest some upward pressure may be developing. My two newer versions of that chart, which consider factors in addition to buy:sell, are in a similar attitude.
I'm always cautious with these, because of my inexperience with them and their unconfirmed reliability as yet. With the odd behavior recently I'm even more suspicious. When there's abnormal influences and actions I don't think charts are all that reliable.
“Dly Sht % of 'sells'” continue to suggest that John's call that the big sellers are gone is correct.
HardToLove
My thinking is that since Axion announced it at the CC, that the market won't react to the news. I would like to see a reaction to the news as we did last January with the Navy Yard sale. Will be interesting if there is any price movement to the below Rosewater PR, if it is picked up by other media sources. I've been debating on buying more shares now, or possibly waiting till after first of year.
It always helps when you've got an implementation with reported results and that you can look at, test, ...
I suspect that would be a *small* boost to pps.
HardToLove
Now that is something different.
And most welcome!
The GM Volt was originally advertised as a series hybrid car and it was roundly criticized when people learned that there was a direct connection between the engine and the wheels that kicked in at high speed.
To the best of my knowledge, there is no linkage between ePower's genset and the drivetrain other than cables to carry the electric current. Their solution might fail, but based on what we know today it looks very promising.
HardToLove
Evidence I’ve seen is that it delivers around 40% fuel savings over conventional diesel—if it is applied to routes with frequent stops. (The general rule is four or more stops every kilometre.)
It cost 40% more up front than its clean diesel counterpart, about $200,00 more. The batteries last about 7 years. They have recently upped its ability to include stop-start and full electrification of accessories. So equipped they are talking about 50% fuel savings.
RoseWater Energy Group congratulates Axion Power International for their upcoming over the road test of the Axion PbC battery in the ePower Engine Systems hybrid power train for tractor-trailers.
The ePower system utilizes a smaller diesel engine and incorporates the PbC batteries which will offset the load requirements from the engine. The batteries are used for increased engine output, like starting from a dead stop and inclines, and capture energy from regenerative braking and descending hills. This will result in fuel savings potentially as high as 50% as well as reduced CO2 emissions. The test truck will be driven throughout the United States and put in real world situations. The results and progress will be tracked by ePower, Axion Power and RoseWater Energy.
"We got a call from a mutual friend, John Petersen, who recommended we talk to Andy Claypole at ePower and sure enough, within a few weeks we had Andy down to the plant and the conversations couldn't have gone better" stated Joe Piccirilli of RoseWater Energy. "Both Andy and Jay at ePower saw what we had to offer and realized this should be the solution for them."
“If it was not for the efforts of Joe Piccirilli of Rosewater Energy, we may not have put this initiative together, and not in such a timely manner either”, said Andy Claypole of ePower. Claypole went on to say, “Joe reached out to me and convinced me that he had the solution to the issues we were facing with the existing battery chemistries we were utilizing, and then he set up the meetings with the Axion team and continued to stay involved to insure the discussions moved along efficiently”.
"We're confident that what we have is the answer for ePower and these tests will confirm that" added Mario Bottero of RoseWater. "To be part of the HUB, a product that will revolutionize localized energy storage, and now to be part of the ePower system, an engine redesign that will revolutionize the trucking industry, is quite an amazing thing for us at RoseWater"
About ePower Engine Systems
ePower engine systems has developed a hybrid drive-train technology for Class 8 vehicles which offers the performance, power, range, and affordability required by truck operators. The system has been designed for retro-fitting existing vehicles to extend vehicle life and reduce capital costs.
About RoseWater Energy Group
RoseWater Energy was created through the innovation and expertise of many individuals that came together to create an energy storage consortium. With a history of success in multiple fields, we are focused on bringing that same success to creating, delivering and servicing the next generation of energy storage products. Our network spans the globe and our products will service multiple applications for governments,
utilities, industries and consumers. The next generation of energy is upon us, and RoseWater Energy will prepare you for it.
RoseWater is responsible for the development of the residential energy HUB, a product that will revolutionize residential storage around the world.
Appreciate your quick linking of the press release. I had forgotten that Joe Piccirilli was involved. His involvement has been all positive. Thanks Joe Piccirilli and thanks John.
ePower Engine needs to update its website. It has a blog tab but the most recent blog entry is from 2010: http://bit.ly/UT6Hhy
PS The Rosewater and Axion relationship seems very functional and positive but it is a bit confusing.
Not all - lots of large companies are good ones, but there's some real dogs out there too.
HardToLove
Very enjoyable reading, Maya. I'm beginning to see the truck market as the most reliable driving force for Axion's revenues and stock price in the near term since it is neither a niche market at this time nor one that depends on a major, system-wide corporate decision.
AXPW is trading at less than half the price where I first began to build it into my largest holding, yet the company now occupies an incredibly sweet spot in twice as many markets as were evident at the time of my earliest purchases. So crazy! I made a lot of money twenty years ago in internet speculations that didn't have nearly the reward-risk ratio of today's AXPW. And that would still be true if AXPW were trading above $1.00.
Retro-fits will be scheduled to fit the truck owner's needs - most likely when a rebuild is due anyway.
HardToLove
Anyone have a back-of-an-envelope calculation regarding potential return on investment here? Would be nice to have an idea of what the retrofit would cost and how long it would go. Of course, that is assuming that it works and works all the time. Would the PbCs be good for 10 years?
No doubt we are getting ahead of ourselves. At best, the first generation will have lots of kinks to work out. Then again, this is not the first generation for ePower.
http://bit.ly/QYWep8
Would also like to know how much downtime is involved in each rebuild approach (conventional v. ePower).
Finally, if I'm an owner/operator perhaps I'm thinking about whether this smaller diesel engine is being systematically overworked by the ePower system and tends to burn out earlier than a conventionally-sized engine. So seeing the results of many test miles would give confidence as well.
D
With a 500,000 mile warranty are you really worried about overworking the engine?
Engine temperature will be more constant, reducing thermally-induced wear.
My thoughts,
HardToLove
:-) Warranty is as solid as the company that issues it.
My guess is that the diesel engine is loving this arrangement because the battery pack/electric drive is taking all the variable abuse. The diesel engine mostly runs in its sweet spot delivering peak efficiency.
I use an Etch-a-sketch! :-))
HardToLove
!st, congrats on convincing the love of your life to take the big step.
2nd, 500,000 miles is only four or less years of running in an OTR truck and a warranty is only as good as the company backing it. However, all that being said, I would want to be on the forefront of the testing and if I was still on the road would be fighting to get my hand on this.
Now is a Press Releases in Rosewater web page:
http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
"The test truck will be driven throughout the United States and put in real world situations." It is really good to see ePower doing this. That gives everyday truckers the opportunity to check it out. It will be the belle-of-the-ball at truck stops and that is pocketbook marketing to move a consumer market.
That is huge.
I always thought the rails would lead but heavy road transport makes me just as happy see. Both industries are huge consumers of oil ... and less is better.
Edit: I wonder if they, ePower, are working on a establishing a dealer network among the independent overhaul/repair shops?
'twil be interesting to see what the actual numbers prove to be. If current mileage for Class 8 trucks is 6 - 8 mpg and ePower delivers 12 - 14 mpg as touted, that 50% fuel reduction could be a low ball figure. Nice marketing gimmick if realized fuel savings exceeds advertised. Happy customers are effective sales agents.
The Capstome implementation requires acceptance of what is "unknown" technology, from an owner/user POV. It's also quite expensive ATM and will remain so at least until the new materials get into production, which also will lower the $/Kw cost.
That little difference - familiarity - might make all the difference.
HardToLove
(think waves)
PS: love the new avatar, reminds me of your "Pelican" theme but obviously more industrial.
Not only miles, the truck shows are coming up soon. Check with Tim, be nice to see a road running rig at the shows.
These non-auto OEM applications should make for a healthier growth curve. There is a lot of risk in developing $50 Million of capacity as an entry point to get the sale. That said, a 100K battery/year initial auto sale is only 1 or 2 more lines, well within reach.
MM: hammer price buying shares for a large buy order I've got and then sell those to my customer?
Since *all* the bids and asks were at or below yesterday's close and no one jostled to get in front at the open ...
HardToLove
Great excerpt heading into the holiday weekend. Enjoy turkey day gents.
Buy:sell (11:20) 6.25:1, volume already 243.4K,
But I'm still leery ... LoL! Probably as I watch price run away ... if I had any powder left!
HardToLove
HardToLove
1. We see a tough general correction (perhaps triggered by tax selling if enough panic at the prospect of the new tax rules?)
2. TG fails to land a strategic partner and we go without good sales and revenues news into 2013
3. Axion really does have to turn to the same group of flippers that they brought in at $.35 last time and who have (whodda thunk it?), according to the CC, shown interest in another round
4. AND the new offering is once again a juicy discount to a prevailing market price under $.30, perhaps around the quixotically sticky $.25 level...
My first thought was that a testing period of three months would have to occur in order to properly show that the dynamic charge acceptance ability of the PbC will not weaken as in AGM batteries. We all believe that the Norfolk Southern testing has already shown this. But real world application must be done and it does take time. The interesting factor to me is that the marketing can be done prior to the test being completed. At 50 batteries per truck it only takes 40 trucks to equal one railroad locomotive. I am unsure how many drive trains epower can turn out. But Axion's present capacity is over 3 trucks per day worth of PbCs.
So lets hope that the little class 8 that can, will be monitored to the hilt and the marketing can be achieved simultaneously. Mid 2013 could be a wonderful conference call.
As a side note we do not want to forget the original NS999 and the terrible real world results of that battery test.
NS 999 with about 10 months of real world operation.
ePower class 8 truck with one year of operation.
Energy HUB with 11 months of UL approval.
Powercube applications beginning to ramp.
Possible announcement of BMW application.
In addition other connections with the above applications such as other trucks, autos, and trains.
I like our chances for success!!!
And most important, A possible known partner in some sector.
As quickly as an E-Power Engine Systems PR announcing order of one or more additional new trucks, a Rosewater Energy Group PR announcing UL cert of the HUB, an Axion or Rosewater PR announcing one or more PowerCube sales.
Not sure what to make of this bit of ePower history, but it may show the ability to deliver some sales quickly. From a 3/2011 article:
"Vehicles converted to the ePower engine system have been able to demonstrate a reduction in fuel consumption of up to 65 percent, prompting Mark Huber, CEO of Corporate Ventures, to purchase 200 ePower engine systems."
http://bit.ly/QaY0lE
Corporate Ventures turns out to be an investment bank, per their website:
http://bit.ly/UJG7XX
Interesting that they would have placed an order (and a biggie at that) for the ePower trucks. Maybe if their order never actually was completed (TG mentioned some snags that ePower had but didn't elaborate), they might want to re-order, now that the solution should have (hopefully!) batteries that work.
I don't know if this is JP's VC contact.
Alternatively, maybe they haven't been delivered yet and PbC's will find their way into them as new...
I don't know how long it will take to build the engines but we might want to stock up on some more carbon.
Past carbon orders and disclosed PbC deliveries suggest Axion currently has on hand more than double the carbon needed to the number of PbCs needed for 200 E-Power Engine System trucks AND those needed for the NS999.
HardToLove
Excellent point. This group is not always rational. This time we seem to be accepting good news with little current expectations.
Except we know the price will fall upon the announcement of good news. That is the way with Axion. Sell on the rumor. Sell on the news. :-)
Maybe their M&A team just doesn't know how to spell? I'd like to buy an I Pat? No not Pod. Jeez.
Battery systems maker Axeon Group acquired by Johnson Matthey
http://bit.ly/WkhFh3
Axeon is not a cell manufacturer. It buys off the shelf cells and integrates them into modules and packs. That doesn't strike me as a particularly attractive IP position.
http://bit.ly/WkjhHI
Possibly all about kicking off the Holiday investing season...in style.
'Bigfoot' builders tackle EV monster truck
"The all-electric, Odyssey car batteries-sponsored rig will be the first electric monster truck to go on exhibition, Yahoo Autos reports.
The EV Bigfoot is powered by 30 lead-acid car batteries, generating about 360 volts of power."
http://bit.ly/WkiVRA
i wonder what the sponsor is paying for the right to provide the batteries.
Through 13:50: Buy:Sell 3.45:1, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2487, Vol 357239, AvTrSz: 4106 on 64 trades.
So whatever was going on yesterday seems to be over.
HardToLove
I see the good things happening when you can put the design into a new truck and this can be done NOW! If ePower would get together with Fitzgerald Glider Kits you could buy a new Custom Hybrid that can be financed as a new truck. Glider kits come directly from the factory with one or more key components (engine, transmission) missing.
If this doesn't get your blood racing I don't know what will...
http://bit.ly/UJMGd8
Have I got this wrong or does it appear that ePower can buy the freightliner cab ( the Glider) and simply install their own hybrid drivetrain? How great is that. Got my blood racing.
They could probably get setup to purchase glider kits but the fast track would be to just partner with Fitzgerald as the have a large following and a great relationship with Freightliner. And yes, they could order the complete tractor minus the engine and transmission...
If ePower did it with Axion's help, we could call it the New Truck the class8carbonator by ePower
Man, those were the days.
JP: How much are you spending this year on a Swiss turkey, $145?
I spent $20 on a 20# Butterball. However, the wine cost about $100 for 750 litres. Its French wine so I suspect John could buy the same wine for $20.
Of course the Axionistas may one day turn their noses up to such good value.
Not me! there are lots of good wines that satisfy under $10 and Axion at $5 won't change that. I am Red wine kind of guy. Any suggestions?
Try this website. The total wine chain now sells 1 Billion dollars of wine and liquor per year. They go to many wineries and purchase 50% of their production. This leaves them with great wines for private labeling and leaves the producers with costs paid and half a crop to sell however they wish. Its a good business plan and some great wines for the consumer.
http://www.totalwine.com
You can tell the private label wines by the WineryDirect designation.
They have over 100 stores ( most on the eastern side of US) but web sales are available in some states. I know many of the wines if anyone has a question about them. As I tell the Mrs. "I'm a wine enthusiast. Not a wino."
Besides, even though I have a great big nose it really is just for show; just like a politican's promise, lots of show but of little use.
I suspect JP might be a better judge.
Try not drinking the entire bottle yourself. First rule of feeling better in the morning. :-)
Of course, they are not allowed in PA, so I drive down to Delaware when I need to stock up. Even Tom Corbitt, governor and once the PA State Attorney General, admitted even he broke the law in buying booze from Total Wine, and illegally bringing it back into PA.
For an hour and a half round trip, I can save $60 on a case of Ron Zacapa. I absolutely would not want to be there tonight, it would be a crammed zoo.
Heck, just driving down to my local WAWA today was an adventure.
A couple of dear friends got married after living together for 17 years while he finished a divorce (things like that can drag out in Switzerland). The groom's dad apparently bought the bottle when the groom was born and they uncorked it for the wedding.
Since I don't drink and there were a number of other guests who do, it only seemed polite for me to pass.
I see that your state also does not allow TW to ship wines to you.
To bad my friend. I use to work for them. I really miss the employee 30% discount and the free case of wine per month. What a perk that was.
For an unusual but tasty white why not try the Albarino grape. Our current house wine is from Eidosela from Spain. Very nice with shrimp, pasta etc. Here in Bermuda its about $18 but I suspect similar wines in the US probably priced about $12 or less.
But to drink Red wine you simply must take a antihistamine tablet prior to going to dinner. This will counteract the response your body has to the Tannins in the wine. Please note that these tablets will make you drowsy. Just plan on not driving to or from dinner.
Good luck with your new found hobby of red wines.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving, John.
I just saw this and smiled. Only in America.
Wild Turkeys Overrun Brookline, Mass.
http://abcn.ws/UhQjuA
Funny to see someone that grew up in the woods crossing the street to avoid them. I remember as a young child running from the geese on the farm that would bite my rear if they caught me. My father didn't say anything and let me learn on my own. One day I turned and stood my ground and from then on I realized running was not the correct action with most animals.
Anyway, It's nice to see them recover unlike many song birds and pheasant as examples.
All I know is that the epower website said 500,000 mile warranty. I suspect they are warranting the hybrid drive system. In automobiles the car manufacturers cover the batteries as part of the hybrid warranty. I would have many questions for Epower before I would buy.
What would a normal overhaul of an engine and transmission cost?
How often is that done?
The transmission is usually only replaced when it starts making noise or you get a bad fluid test. I don't have any idea as to the cost because I don't hear much about these failing...
So lets say you could do a $25000 rebuild or a $75000 hybrid makeover.
Whats the gas savings in 4 years?
I think the solution works with a PbC. But I don't see how they could have been warrantying it for 500,000 miles using AGM batteries, not given their limited cycle life.
So how do we know their other claims have merit?
D
This could explain their behavior in running back to the PbC.
We have talked about the battery warranties being a driving force in the PbC future sales growth. This might be the first hint of that.
Hybrids still have a consumer test to pass.
Toyota has done it. How about the others?
But no doubt they would not guarantee the batteries. No different than the auto OEMs.
http://engt.co/UKa9e8 more recent info on the actual release..
25-50% fuel efficiency improvement is absolutely huge, especially when you consider that the trucking industry is extremely competitive and relatively low margin (5.7% operating margin for Con-Way Trucking in 2011) and that fuel constitutes about 30% of operating expenses (also Con-Way trucking). It would seem that a double-digit improvement in operating margin could be the difference between success and bankruptcy in this industry.
One other thing I read in a quarterly report of Old Dominion Freight was that the cost of new tractors has increased $40k over the past ten years due to pollution control equipment. That would certainly help make rebuilds more attractive.
So, these factors might explain the competition to be the first buyer. I further like that these trucking firms appear to be able and eager to move quickly.
In addition to the trucking industry forces that would seem to make rebuilds using the ePower solution extremely attractive for us is the battery intensity of the solution.
With 52 batteries at $400 each that is $20k+ for Axion for each rebuilt tractor. One rebuild a week is $1m in annual revenue to Axion. Fifteen rebuilds per week would come pretty close to making Axion profitable assuming no additional new revenue sources for Axion. That doesn’t seem like a huge number at all given the size of the industry. In fact, if one large trucking company like Con-Way ($5.3b in 2011 revenue and 9,000 tractors), decided to rebuild all their trucks at the appropriate point in their service lives using the ePower system it would make Axion highly profitable.
Thanks very much!
Safer? with a good driver behind the wheel - yes! but the downside might be drivers behind the wheel that might not have made it in a standard tractor. The newbies that I have seen washed out did not belong behind the wheel.
Saving money on driver training? there are required hours for a training center and certification. They didn't change the hours for the autoshift transmissions so I doubt they will change it of electric drive.
I drive an autoshift transmission and think it funny that some drivers refuse to use them. I would jump at the opportunity to test drive an electronic drive but suspect it would be a hard sell to most of the drivers. Then again if it performs well we might be able to over come this. A ride in a bobtail (no trailer) eDrive might gather some interest as they get pushed back in the seat. However, the hill climbing is a pretty big deal to a driver as nobody likes be passed like you are standing still...
On the other hand, hybrids are favoured for routes that involve going up and down hills.
:-) As one who hails from flatlander country, it has long been clear to me that "long and steep" mean different things to different people. I'm wondering how an ePower Engine Class 8 would fare at, say, 80K GVW traveling U.S. Interstate 81 North to South in pulling the grade between Roanoke and Christiansberg, Va. Elevation changes ~ 400ft with most of that change concentrated within a 3 - 5 mile roadway section.
Thanks for running those numbers, JP. Very useful for realistic perspective formation.
Perhaps not the current version but what about using a 300 hp engine instead of 200 hp engine if the truck was to frequent mountainous terrain? a standard class 8 truck's fuel econmy will suffer in the hills and the ony gains on the other side is speed comming down the hill...
Adapted from the auto industry, things like variable valve timing and cylinder disabling would allow a larger engine to get most of the benefits of the smaller engine while increasing power when need, controlled by a computer of course.
The question in my mind would revolve around durability. Would either of these be deleterious to the life cycle or substantially increase maintenance expense? The VVT seems quite likely to do so. The savings might easily offset the added cost and if the added cost is small enough still make an attractive TCO price point.
Disabling cylinders in an inline-6 would seem relatively innocuous and I would think would not add much to maintenance. This would let a, e.g. 300 HP-rated engine become a 200 HP unit. And the implementation of this technology is relatively cheap.
in partial ignorance and MHO,
HardToLove
Personally, if this would get me to 10-11 mpg I would chose this route over the 12-14 mpg and smaller engine. The 3-4 mpg difference would have a $75k paid off in less than 2 years. I would not have a concern over my routes and the most important thing is that I keep my engine. The engine is integral to the operation of a modern truck as a whole. The rest of the drive train is not.
So there its is. If phase II is to leave the stock engine alone, I am in...
With the extra HP on tap, less BSS capacity = less weight = even better fuel mileage.
This strikes me as a no-brainer as cylinder disabling essentially involves nothing more than holding valves open or closed on the affected cylinders and cutting fuel injection to those same cylinders.
A nice side-benefit is retained as well as a multi-stage Jake-brake would still be available with all the power of the original engine.
So savings would also accrue on brake wear and maintenance.
Since the tough engineering has already been done on this sort of thing for autos, the modifications, application and "proof of concept" for big diesels by a major engine manufacturer should be peanuts, meaning they could roll it out in both a reasonable time-frame and at a reasonable cost to the customer for the benefits obtained.
MHO,
HardToLove
The motor and batteries would be serving the equivalent function.
HardToLove
I remember in the early eighties gas crunch that some auto mechanic shops were putting solenoids on the valves and push rods to make the vehicles aftermarket 4-6-8 (gas) engines. This was started by GM in stock vehicles if I remember correctly. Shouldn't be too hard to adapt to diesel engines.
I also got to thinking about the jake-brake issue, which can be a really needed feature on max-load trips. It occurred to be that with properly designed electronics, motor (heat dissipation and ruggedness), an equivalent to a jake-brake could be implemented by applying counter-EMF, effectively run the current through the motor in reverse, or out of sync. You would need an advanced motor matched with appropriate control electronics such as might be available from UQM. The EMF could come from batteries, engine or both simultaneously. "Tuning" of braking would be available from "mild drag" to full-on "try to lock 'er down" modes. A benefit would be potentially available in the form of anti-lock sensors and programming too.
HardToLove
If the ideal sized engine is 600hp, would this mean that at maximum output, the battery/engine combination could meet this energy output level for about 5 1/2 minutes? Considering that the sweet spot is probably much less than fully cycling the batteries, it might be 1-2 minutes of running at 600hp which probably means moderate hills but certainly not the Rockies.
What would be the potential of creating a maximum output that is higher, say 800hp?
I have a background in electronics. Started with tubes and 3 phase electromechanical clipper circuits to get smooth high amperage dc voltage (done with relays) and moved on to transistors and silicon diodes, played with my first IC chip (a clocking circuit that made modern computers possible) in 1967. So I have a basic understanding of electronics even if all my training is dated (think the movie "Space Cowboys"). Unfortunately my electromechanical experience is limited to repairing washers, dryers and conventional cars, so while I may be able to build something that works, it would probably fill my garage and a newly trained engineer could build something that would be smaller than my laptop computer. Ahh, progress, ain't it sweet.
They are talking about making IC chips using something like a printer on the silicon wafer and being 3 dimensional.
Now I know how my grandfather felt. He was born in the 1890s, saw the first planes, autos, radios, TVs and how they advanced and lived to see the first men on the moon. It sure is hard to keep up with it all, but it sure is fun trying to. :-)
Just for my perspective, If there is a mile long hill at 4% grade, that would be a vertical lift of about 212 feet. If the weight of the truck were lifted 212 feet vertically, then this would use about 1/4 of the battery energy. With the engine providing the bulk of the power and the running start to the hill, less the friction losses, my guess is that much less than 25% of the battery energy would be used - not sure how much less. Am I getting the gist of this correctly?
HardToLove
(80,000 x 212) divided by 60 sec = 282,667 ft-lbs / sec
Now, one horsepower = 550 ft-lbs / sec
So, with no friction losses or aerodynamic drag, you'd need ~514 horsepower to climb that grade at 60 mph at full load..
So the battery would have to produce 314 Hp for a minute.... or 314 x 550 x60 = 10,362,000 ft-lbs
and 10,362,000 divided by 67,600,000 (John's number) = about 15% of the battery's total capacity... again, discounting friction and other losses..
I'm thinking there is no obvious reason a larger diesel could not be used where the rig is expected to serve primarily in very hilly to mountainous terrain. In general, though, I've been wondering how that 200 hp diesel solution might fare in middle of the country moving away from the Mississippi Valley toward the Rockies and lesser mountain chains to the South. Wikipedia tells us that Dallas, TX has an elevation of 430 ft. while Abilene 185 miles to the West sits at 1,719 feet, Midland 150 mi. further West rests at 2,782 feet and ~350 miles further West El Paso nestles in at 3,800 ft. (Pretty much a lifetime back I noticed I always got much better gas mileage traveling East than I did heading West (~4 mpg as I recall) as one should expect given the lay of the land.)
Not always so true if one takes into consideration that at the end of the journey there is at least one party that is looking to optimize ROI. The rate of getting from place to place to optimize ROI is not the same for every delivery. And it's impacted by numerous variables with fuel prices always being at least one part of the equation. Times have changed with higher fuel prices.
We turtles know that fast is not the only way to a successful finish. Some rallies are won with speed and some precision.
Is there a data base that's accessible to the industry that helps with the selection of equipment. Correct engine size, gear ratios, load ranges etc. for specific use patterns? If there is, are the specs vendor specific or generic industry data?
Thanks for your comments here. I can see where this would be invaluable. Same as we see NSC doing with their Leader program and their research vehicles. Far easier for them to do due to common routes and far less variables such as variable traffic conditions.
Anyway, I heard them sell 3 batteries and mentioned 8 year warranty. Asked. Response-All Bosch batteries. Guy was too busy to try to find out why. Would have been nice to see if it was a sale or some other reason why it was not Exide. Customers didn't ask for specific batteries. Totally dependent on Pep Boys personnel.
(Overheard guy in front tell tech. they were going to put in a battery even though the tech said battery in car tested good. Finished the conversation in the shop area after the tech made a face.)
GM is investing in Bus. The EcoRide can complete a fast charge in 10 minutes and has up to 40 miles of range.
http://bit.ly/SbxkRx
Here is the bus link
"...uses a fuel cell APU, but the design could just as easily accommodate a diesel, propane, CNG or gasoline generator. When a range extension APU is used, it serves as an on-board battery charger and only runs when needed and until the energy storage system reaches the desired state of charge..."
http://bit.ly/RV25sM
http://yhoo.it/UKomYx
ePower is the only hybrid I know using lead-acid (or rather lead carbon)
Its so crazy it just might work.
If it does, the opportunity for what you suggest could be huge.
Did you author the article at link below? If not, do you know which former Axion Director did? TIA.
http://bit.ly/UnNEgZ
I've always had a very liberal attitude when it comes to people republishing my work so my articles seem to generate a lot of links and repostings.
I just did a quick Google search for the phrase "cheap will beat cool in vehicle electrification" including the quotes and found that there are about 99,300 links to or reprints of that article floating around on the web.
I wrote an Instablog on the subject in June (http://bit.ly/sk4Y20) that lays out my working theory of how the market responds to bloggers. The gist is that I think a small percentage of readers are willing to do the work required to climb their wall of worry and make a buying decision while a much larger percentage decide to watch and wait until a particular company "proves something" by getting a design win, building revenues to a minimum level or even building earnings to minimum level.
If my theory is right, the number of people who are watching Axion and waiting to hit the buy button until the company accomplishes a specific goal is several times larger than the number of people who have already hit the buy button and it's up to Axion to move them off the fence.
That makes a lot of sense.
And being visible to an audience who have already done DD on a stock could certainly amplify the effect of positive news.
Having a large number of people who are at least paying attention is always a good thing.
This line in the article you linked to relates to another stock I own:
"I don't care what you say about me, as long as you say something and as long as you spell my name [and my stock symbol] right."
DVAX announced some bad news last week, and DYAX, which I own, suffered momentarily, allowing a few lucky traders to score a handful of shares at an extreme discount, all at the expense of course of a weak holder or two who had no idea what was going on.
http://bit.ly/QbJKcv
Thanks for providing the link. Real world evidence of the shortcomings of the "inferior" batteries when the S/S stops working after several stops. Good to see they were able to get the 10% reduction in fuel usage even with the engine restarting because of the electrical load. Imagine the PbC doing even better, and would like to see them replicate the test after six months of driving. I would really like to see a similar direct comparison between PbC and AGM.
What an entertaining video. Excellent editing and commentary.
Like metro, I would love to see a comparison of AGM and PbC, especially as regards hotel function forcing the engine to restart while at a standstill.
http://bit.ly/R1tFHI;I=
Pag.: 26
I don’t think we can get into a whole lot of that other than to say it’s more than one or two. We’re working with more than one locomotive company and now we have an important initiative that we’re hoping moves forward rather rapidly in Asia with another OEM integrator. But, we have the two major relationships that we’ve been working where we’ve been working with those automotive companies - BMW specifically and another large U.S. automotive manufacturer - for years.
Mr TG said:
We’re working with more than one locomotive company!!!
Question: Wich one is the other? or It could be the other? What mean "ASIA" (...Asia with another OEM integrator).
Thanks-Carlos
-by Asia, I think that refers to whom we believe is possibly Toyota.
Anyway, Nothing even subtle to indicate any relationship with Axion.
Haven't seen RJC doing much of anything but I don't follow them that closely any more. Thought it might have something to do with the long term illness of Mr. Corman.
I probably only want it to be Brookville as it reminds me of Petticoat Junction and Billy Jo and Bobby Jo who as a kid I thought were pretty amazing.
I saw some announcements a couple years ago when Corman delivered a gen set or two to convert some of the GG's at Altoona. Are the GG"S you are referring to the ones from the Port of Virginia? I was also watching the, if I recall correctly, three units that the US Army had in Texas. Hoping NSC would at some point put PbC in a coupe for a trial but maybe not.
Actually I think maybe we've had some level of discussion on this topic. Been awhile.
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I hope your Thanksgiving was good,
Now you must do what you should!
Proceed to the new concentrator, with an updated header.
http://seekingalpha.co...
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"Our law office is currently investigating several reports and possible cases where this feature is not working properly. In some instances the vehicle kicks into neutral when the accelerator is pressed. Others have complained that the engine completely shuts down on it’s own and does not start back up automatically.
The franchised BMW dealerships are unable to fix this solution. If your vehicle is exhibiting similar problems, please contact our office. The dealerships recommend to turn off the feature and stop using it. We do not think it is fair for a consumer to pay premium dollars for an important fuel economy feature and not be able to use it."
http://bit.ly/U6nPlg
Don't worry the batteries will be mentioned soon enough. Wouldn't it be ironic that the problems were caused by a low voltage condition of the hotel load battery due to sulfation (just a thought).
We already know enhanced flooded and AGM LAB's don't make sense for SS. This will get worse as they harvest more energy and try to keep the engine off for longer periods.
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