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  • Axion Power Concentrator 178, Nov. 21: John Petersen's Axion History & Prospects; Q3 '12 Rpt; SAE Truck APU App; Rosewater & Queens Univ. Partner On Distributed Energy Study; 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems" 217 comments
    Nov 21, 2012 7:10 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    On 11/18 John Petersen published "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" on Altenergystocks.com. It was also, unusually, published by SA. It's an excellent summation of Axion Power International's past trials, tribulations, successes and prospects going forward. Highly recommended, especially if you are new to Axion's story.

    On 11/14/2012 Axion filed their quarterly report and put a news item on their web site that summarizes management's comments and provides a link to the conference call (available for 90 days and worth hearing). On 11/15/2012 Seeking Alpha published a transcript of the conference call.

    Due to an apparent slowdown of the Edgar system, the quarterly report was deemed not filed on time, which Tom Granville mentioned at the start of the conference call. They have filed an exculpatory report of that incident.

    John Petersen was able to obtain and post a copy of Axion's SAE 10/2/2012 Truck APU Application power-point presentation. Many thanks to him for his continued contributions. We see even more cycles applied to the (apparently modified?) PbC # 2 in their testing, showing even greater capability.

    On 11/11/2012 there was an announcement that RoseWater joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study "... to conduct a study to evaluate the impact of a widely-distributed energy storage system backed by RoseWater's Residential Energy Storage Hub on an electrical grid". "... The results of the study, which is already underway, will greatly benefit all companies and individuals involved in energy supply, distribution and consumption, including policy makers, regulators, electric utilities, and storage systems manufacturers". Other information makes it worth a read. Look under the November 2012 releases if you come late to the party.

    John Petersen's participation as a presenter at the 13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC, has provided additional benefits: he has posted, a brief instablog that identifies slides with information and data he'd not seen before and considers important in Axion's presentation, "Axion PbC Lead-Carbon Hybrid Battery/Supercapacitor ,Operational Stability of PbC Batteries and Battery Systems", to which he has provided a link.

    John did a bang-up job on his presentation, in our opinion, and has graciously permitted us to link to a SlideRocket Version of his presentation. It is highly recommended that you take the time, around 20 minutes, to view this if you've not seen it. It is not focused on Axion, but presents some opportunities and challenges facing the LA battery industry at-large.

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    John Petersen has provided price and volume charts updated through 11/9/2012.

    (click to enlarge)AXPW Weighted Moving Average Price 20121109
    (click to enlarge)AXPW Moving Average Volume 20121109

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    John's Petersen's tracking of the APC comment activity has been updated through 11/17/2012. Up to 35.4K comments now.

    APC Concentrator Comments 20121117

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (217)
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  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Am I really #1?
    21 Nov 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Certainly in the eyes of your new spouse.

     

    Work hard to keep it that way!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    If I ever make #1, everyone will ask on which list :-).
    21 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed: You'll have to abandon that silly TFH - they can see you coming over the crowd and they jump in front of you ... at least that's my *theory* |:-/

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    What a special gift from all of you.
    21 Nov 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking back to a private comment made by one of the Axion founders at the annual meeting. He said that Axion needed to hone in on the markets where the cycling ability of the PbC really shines.
    Now just half a year later the PowerCube, Railroads, and trucking are getting the push. All three basically are the same product in different sizes. All three use the sweet spot of the PbC.
    Back to basics while awaiting a decision by an automotive OEM.

     

    Things don't always go according to schedule when growing a microcap. Its nice to know that management can listen and readjust when needed.
    21 Nov 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Today in Alt. Energy there is another article of Debra Fiakas.

     

    Exide: Many Alliances, Fewer Results
    http://bit.ly/yE6bt4
    21 Nov 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (195) | Send Message
     
    The author thinks if JCI acquire A123's assets, Exide would be under pressure. I feel that is the last thing for exide to worry about.
    However with more than 400 million WC and some 30 million held by an escrow and years of fooling around, Exide need to settle somewhere, or do they?
    21 Nov 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    It sounds to me that Exide is going to need to come back to Axion and beg them to partner up with them in order to save their business! Wait till they start loosing the trucking APU and the hybrid markets, all the signs are starting to show up!

     

    Just saying!.
    21 Nov 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    I agree.
    I also think that is the only solution that has EXIDE if wants to avoid a catastrophe on your finances.
    No matter what happened, but come back with a check for $32 M. On the other hand the more rapid return better for them, but without threats like JV with MAXWELL
    Carlos.
    21 Nov 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    I found this paragraph helpful:

     

    "In the same year (2009), Exide signed a memorandum of understanding with Axion Power Technologies (AXPW: Nasdaq) for the future purchase of Axion’s PbC batteries and the license of Axion’s lead-carbon electrode technologies. Exide never got around to formalizing the relationship or ordering Axion batteries, but a few months after the MOU was signed the affiliation made good reading in Exide’s application for Recovery Act funds from the Department of Energy. The application named Axion as a partner and promised to increase manufacturing capacity at its Columbus and Bristol facilities where Exide was to produce Absorbed Glass Mat (AGM) batteries “using lead-carbon electrodes for micro-hybrid applications.” In recent discussions Exide has begun referring to the ARRA-funded capacity augmentation in terms of batteries “with or without” lead-carbon technologies - enhancements that Axion was ostensibly to bring to the party."

     

    I don't fully understand how XIDE got away with it if they did not comply with the terms of the grant but it sounds like they were not required to. Maybe they substituted their own carbon paste instead.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    11/20/2012:EOD stuff partially copied my instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 22500, Vol 255015, AvTrSz: 3985
    Min. Pr: 0.2420, Max Pr: 0.2590, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2497
    # Buys, Shares: 53 211614, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2506
    # Sells, Shares: 11 43401, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2453
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 4.88:1 (83% “buys”), DlyShts 1684 (0.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.88%

     

    There were two pre-market trades totaling 4K at $0.25 and one AH trade of 285 shares at $0.2509. These are not included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add them in, the daily short percentage drops to 0.66% from the reported 0.67%. If we also add them to the short sales, the percentage moves to 2.34%.

     

    Daily short sales continue at an abnormally low level. This suggests that the market-makers are long (or lying to FINRA about shorts? Nah, they wouldn't) and since recent daily short sales don't suggest a lot of shares from prior sell orders flowing in (in K: 79.74, 35.55, 13.78, 31.85, 13.42 and 1.68 today) we have to look for other mechanisms that allow the market-makers to sell shares without flagging them as “short”. We have the normal(?) inter-broker and intra-broker (I'm favoring this one) trades that could allow this condition to occur. With the same two or three at the top of the bid and ask, essentially, all day long, it's easy to guess that intra-broker trades are making a higher percentage of trades than is normal. This seems more likely on very low volumes, as we've been seeing recently.

     

    Another possibility is that the market-maker(s) are being more active in accumulating and distributing shares over very short time frames to increase their profits. This might be supported by yesterday's odd action. To wit ...

     

    The day began with 2 pre-market trades (very unusual) totaling 4K at $0.25. Through 11:39 there were 22 trades totaling 84,084 shares that were all buys at $0.25 and one $0.2499, except one “sell” of 900 shares at $0.2441. The buy:sell was 81.32:1. At 11:54 price started moving around, moving to $0.2550 and going as low as $0.2420 through the rest of the day with a VWAP of $0.2496. Even with that, you can see from the “buys” percentage above that buying was still relatively strong. Looking back at my experimental charts, normally when “buys” were excessively high there was a high percentage of short sales.

     

    There was a change in this behavior in October and that change has continued through the present. I'm going to hazard a guess that there's a lot more intra-broker trades or the market-makers are getting “pre-loaded” with shares as folks at the brokerages started doing things based on ... the election? Expected tax effects since the election? Clearing “losers” off the books before EOY? I can't say, but behavior, as evidenced by market-maker shorts, has changed.

     

    Leaving that topic ...

     

    On the traditional TA front, volume was flat (~1K variation), price again penetrated the descending support (~$0.244) and recovered above it and weakened into the close to end the day right there. This caused the oscillators I follow to become muddled again and I can draw no hint as to near-term direction from them. At least we are hanging in the descending trading channel, albeit at the bottom of it.

     

    My experimental 13-period Bollingers are now converging, so that suggests we might just twaddle around here (also called “consolidation”) for a while.

     

    On my experimental charts, volume finished just below all its averages, short sales doing the same, average trade sizes doing the same. Only the buy:sell blew away all its averages, continuing a recent general rising trend since 11/8. This has been sustained long enough and strongly enough to ...

     

    Cause all my original inflection point calculations, except the five-day, to start curling up and sustain that attitude. Since we know on this version the five-day usually goes contrary after suggesting a price rise and before the others also indicate a rise, and the five-day is now going down as these others rise, those suggest some upward pressure may be developing. My two newer versions of that chart, which consider factors in addition to buy:sell, are in a similar attitude.

     

    I'm always cautious with these, because of my inexperience with them and their unconfirmed reliability as yet. With the odd behavior recently I'm even more suspicious. When there's abnormal influences and actions I don't think charts are all that reliable.

     

    “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” continue to suggest that John's call that the big sellers are gone is correct.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I'm guessing that the battery sale to the OEM truck maker to be announced within next few weeks has already been baked into the price and we won't get any price spike from the announcement. I would be glad to be wrong.
    21 Nov 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Until last Thursday the only person outside the company who knew about the ePower truck project was me. The only reason I knew was because I referred the project in and talk to ePower's VC advisor at least once a week. That makes it hard for anybody to bake the sale or the opportunity into the price.
    21 Nov 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    I would not be surprised to see selling on the ePower news. After all, ePower does not have any sales that I know of. Nevertheless, I am eager to hear about the PbC getting a chance to shine in this application.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    John,
    My thinking is that since Axion announced it at the CC, that the market won't react to the news. I would like to see a reaction to the news as we did last January with the Navy Yard sale. Will be interesting if there is any price movement to the below Rosewater PR, if it is picked up by other media sources. I've been debating on buying more shares now, or possibly waiting till after first of year.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2042) | Send Message
     
    I would imagine the PR might reach fresh blood whereas people listening to the CC are mostly current Axionistas.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: the true value may not be sales by ePower, but reporting of a wildly successful implementation. The we could expect a dry spell before any of their sales materialize. But the reported results may carry a low of weight with interested parties.

     

    It always helps when you've got an implementation with reported results and that you can look at, test, ...

     

    I suspect that would be a *small* boost to pps.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    From my conversations with ePower's VC advisor, there was a good deal of competition among buyers for the first two trucks and several small to medium sized fleet operators were pushing for position at the front of the line. Manufacturers love to test things to death. Companies that are coping with rising fuel costs and constricted margins on a daily basis are more willing to take a risk. Apparently, the winner of the "me first competition" sold ePower by saying "I own a tow truck and am better equipped to deal with problems than the other potential buyers."
    21 Nov 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    JP-"there was a good deal of competition among buyers for the first two trucks and several small to medium sized fleet operators were pushing for position at the front of the line"

     

    Now that is something different.
    And most welcome!
    21 Nov 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The idea of a series hybrid Class 8 truck has been played with forever but never implemented. The monster mining dump trucks are all series hybrids, as are all locomotives, but nobody's gotten it to work in a Class 8 tractor before ePower.

     

    The GM Volt was originally advertised as a series hybrid car and it was roundly criticized when people learned that there was a direct connection between the engine and the wheels that kicked in at high speed.

     

    To the best of my knowledge, there is no linkage between ePower's genset and the drivetrain other than cables to carry the electric current. Their solution might fail, but based on what we know today it looks very promising.
    21 Nov 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Petersen, two things noted. Your self control to keep this under your professional hat without even the slightest hint, especially in light of all the "paint drying" laments. Another real-word insight into how financing actually gets done, as opposed to let us say the dorm room Finance 101 theories of some commentators. Congratulations and thanks.
    21 Nov 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    JP: I think if they have the right motor, along with proper BSS and control electronics, it will be difficult to make it fail.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    There is a series hybrid system in use on large (including GVWR over 40,000 lbs) transit buses. A very different application compared to OTR trucks. It’s called Hybridrive from BAE Systems. It’s been around for more than 10 years and the current version uses A123 cells for energy storage.
    Evidence I’ve seen is that it delivers around 40% fuel savings over conventional diesel—if it is applied to routes with frequent stops. (The general rule is four or more stops every kilometre.)
    It cost 40% more up front than its clean diesel counterpart, about $200,00 more. The batteries last about 7 years. They have recently upped its ability to include stop-start and full electrification of accessories. So equipped they are talking about 50% fuel savings.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Just landed in my email box:

     

    RoseWater Energy Group congratulates Axion Power International for their upcoming over the road test of the Axion PbC battery in the ePower Engine Systems hybrid power train for tractor-trailers.
    The ePower system utilizes a smaller diesel engine and incorporates the PbC batteries which will offset the load requirements from the engine. The batteries are used for increased engine output, like starting from a dead stop and inclines, and capture energy from regenerative braking and descending hills. This will result in fuel savings potentially as high as 50% as well as reduced CO2 emissions. The test truck will be driven throughout the United States and put in real world situations. The results and progress will be tracked by ePower, Axion Power and RoseWater Energy.
    "We got a call from a mutual friend, John Petersen, who recommended we talk to Andy Claypole at ePower and sure enough, within a few weeks we had Andy down to the plant and the conversations couldn't have gone better" stated Joe Piccirilli of RoseWater Energy. "Both Andy and Jay at ePower saw what we had to offer and realized this should be the solution for them."
    “If it was not for the efforts of Joe Piccirilli of Rosewater Energy, we may not have put this initiative together, and not in such a timely manner either”, said Andy Claypole of ePower. Claypole went on to say, “Joe reached out to me and convinced me that he had the solution to the issues we were facing with the existing battery chemistries we were utilizing, and then he set up the meetings with the Axion team and continued to stay involved to insure the discussions moved along efficiently”.
    "We're confident that what we have is the answer for ePower and these tests will confirm that" added Mario Bottero of RoseWater. "To be part of the HUB, a product that will revolutionize localized energy storage, and now to be part of the ePower system, an engine redesign that will revolutionize the trucking industry, is quite an amazing thing for us at RoseWater"
    About ePower Engine Systems
    ePower engine systems has developed a hybrid drive-train technology for Class 8 vehicles which offers the performance, power, range, and affordability required by truck operators. The system has been designed for retro-fitting existing vehicles to extend vehicle life and reduce capital costs.
    About RoseWater Energy Group
    RoseWater Energy was created through the innovation and expertise of many individuals that came together to create an energy storage consortium. With a history of success in multiple fields, we are focused on bringing that same success to creating, delivering and servicing the next generation of energy storage products. Our network spans the globe and our products will service multiple applications for governments,
    utilities, industries and consumers. The next generation of energy is upon us, and RoseWater Energy will prepare you for it.
    RoseWater is responsible for the development of the residential energy HUB, a product that will revolutionize residential storage around the world.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Appreciate your quick linking of the press release. I had forgotten that Joe Piccirilli was involved. His involvement has been all positive. Thanks Joe Piccirilli and thanks John.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    Thank goodness for Rosewater

     

    ePower Engine needs to update its website. It has a blog tab but the most recent blog entry is from 2010: http://bit.ly/UT6Hhy
    21 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I visited their website a few times - as an Axionista would. It is pretty dire. They are probably wondering where all the traffic on their website is coming from.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    I like that the system has been designed for retrofits, although Tim pointed out that truck rebuilds may not be as common as we would like.

     

    PS The Rosewater and Axion relationship seems very functional and positive but it is a bit confusing.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: Independent truckers tend to do a lot more rebuilds, keeping their rigs for much longer periods than the bean-counter big outfits that live off the CDL mills' output. They treat their drivers and trucks the same - disposable commodities.

     

    Not all - lots of large companies are good ones, but there's some real dogs out there too.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Seems to me that retrofits could become a lot more common than anyone expects if demonstrated fuel savings translate into a very quick payback period for the cost of a retrofit.

     

    Very enjoyable reading, Maya. I'm beginning to see the truck market as the most reliable driving force for Axion's revenues and stock price in the near term since it is neither a niche market at this time nor one that depends on a major, system-wide corporate decision.

     

    AXPW is trading at less than half the price where I first began to build it into my largest holding, yet the company now occupies an incredibly sweet spot in twice as many markets as were evident at the time of my earliest purchases. So crazy! I made a lot of money twenty years ago in internet speculations that didn't have nearly the reward-risk ratio of today's AXPW. And that would still be true if AXPW were trading above $1.00.
    21 Nov 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Alpha: one other thing I like about truck retro-fit is that no huge capex would be needed to ramp production capacity initially. Demand should initially ramp slowly until "critical mass" might be reached, allowing some portion of capacity expansion to occur with funding from sales rather than 100% from a capital raise.

     

    Retro-fits will be scheduled to fit the truck owner's needs - most likely when a rebuild is due anyway.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    Alpha said: "Seems to me that retrofits could become a lot more common than anyone expects if demonstrated fuel savings translate into a very quick payback period for the cost of a retrofit."

     

    Anyone have a back-of-an-envelope calculation regarding potential return on investment here? Would be nice to have an idea of what the retrofit would cost and how long it would go. Of course, that is assuming that it works and works all the time. Would the PbCs be good for 10 years?

     

    No doubt we are getting ahead of ourselves. At best, the first generation will have lots of kinks to work out. Then again, this is not the first generation for ePower.
    21 Nov 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The ePower slide presentation that I have estimates an annual fuel savings of $36,700 per vehicle on a retrofit investment of less than $100,000. There isn't much more I can say without permission.
    21 Nov 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    There is a cost benefit illustration here on ePower's website showing payback.

     

    http://bit.ly/QYWep8
    21 Nov 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    How does the ROI of the ePower rebuild compare to that of a 'conventional' rebuild?

     

    Would also like to know how much downtime is involved in each rebuild approach (conventional v. ePower).

     

    Finally, if I'm an owner/operator perhaps I'm thinking about whether this smaller diesel engine is being systematically overworked by the ePower system and tends to burn out earlier than a conventionally-sized engine. So seeing the results of many test miles would give confidence as well.

     

    D
    21 Nov 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    JP--Excellent!
    21 Nov 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    D.McH
    With a 500,000 mile warranty are you really worried about overworking the engine?
    21 Nov 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie: Should have longer life if sized properly. It will tend to run at a more constant speed, in it's "sweet spot", reducing wear associated with loads imposed by *frequent* acceleration and deceleration of internal components. Also, drive train "shocks" from bumps, rough gear changes, ... will not be imposed on the engine (and transmission if there was one).

     

    Engine temperature will be more constant, reducing thermally-induced wear.

     

    My thoughts,
    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    "With a 500,000 mile warranty are you really worried about overworking the engine? "

     

    :-) Warranty is as solid as the company that issues it.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    D.McHattie, You beat me to the first two questions.

     

    My guess is that the diesel engine is loving this arrangement because the battery pack/electric drive is taking all the variable abuse. The diesel engine mostly runs in its sweet spot delivering peak efficiency.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I give up. Slow on the draw today. ;))
    21 Nov 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "Slow on the draw today"

     

    I use an Etch-a-sketch! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: Proof of the pudding is Exide's new pro-rata warranty.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Wouldn't it be more accurate to describe the warranty as non-pro-rata?
    21 Nov 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    !st, congrats on convincing the love of your life to take the big step.
    2nd, 500,000 miles is only four or less years of running in an OTR truck and a warranty is only as good as the company backing it. However, all that being said, I would want to be on the forefront of the testing and if I was still on the road would be fighting to get my hand on this.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Maya:

     

    Now is a Press Releases in Rosewater web page:

     

    http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
    22 Nov 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Thanks.

     

    "The test truck will be driven throughout the United States and put in real world situations." It is really good to see ePower doing this. That gives everyday truckers the opportunity to check it out. It will be the belle-of-the-ball at truck stops and that is pocketbook marketing to move a consumer market.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    DRich: What I love to read is the potential 50% reduction in fuel costs.

     

    That is huge.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... I like that too, but my favorite part is that it is out there and not on some test track. Just how do you think that will play at the "Pilot" when the driver mentions his mileage to the other drivers. That is talking "income" & competitive advantage. Look for delayed schedules of shipment using this truck because it will spend a lot of time doing "Show & Tell".
    21 Nov 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I hope this truck accumulates a lot of miles in a short time.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    Maya- based on fuel reduction in other hybrid trucks, I'd be happy with as little 35% in this application. I don't trust the 50% number but would love to be surprised.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >metroneanderthal ... When this truck hits the road, ePower will meet my criteria for Axion's "Customer No. 1". I think I (or we) should send them a silver loving cup trophy for the accomplishment from long suffering Axion shareholders.

     

    I always thought the rails would lead but heavy road transport makes me just as happy see. Both industries are huge consumers of oil ... and less is better.

     

    Edit: I wonder if they, ePower, are working on a establishing a dealer network among the independent overhaul/repair shops?
    21 Nov 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    I would "Like" many more times over but of course the SA software will not allow.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    "I'd be happy with as little 35% in this application. I don't trust the 50% number but would love to be surprised. "

     

    'twil be interesting to see what the actual numbers prove to be. If current mileage for Class 8 trucks is 6 - 8 mpg and ePower delivers 12 - 14 mpg as touted, that 50% fuel reduction could be a low ball figure. Nice marketing gimmick if realized fuel savings exceeds advertised. Happy customers are effective sales agents.
    21 Nov 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I like the epower idea; however, at this point I find it similar to some of the capstone projects where a microturbine was put into a car for proof of concept. It could be worthwhile in a couple years after the project is proved out, but I don't really see it moving with lightening speed.
    21 Nov 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, DRich. Customer #1 has arrived!
    21 Nov 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: there's really quite a bit of difference that should make the ePower configuration much more acceptable. The big difference is that it is combining two well-known "traditional" technologies.

     

    The Capstome implementation requires acceptance of what is "unknown" technology, from an owner/user POV. It's also quite expensive ATM and will remain so at least until the new materials get into production, which also will lower the $/Kw cost.

     

    That little difference - familiarity - might make all the difference.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    DRich: How common is series electric propulsion in the marine industry? Just wondering if the concept is transferable & any efficiency gains to be had.
    (think waves)
    PS: love the new avatar, reminds me of your "Pelican" theme but obviously more industrial.
    21 Nov 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >CO3 ... Hybrid marine is probably 20+ years old in the yacht world but it has started in the working boats over the last 10 years with an acceleration over the last 5 years. It is making inroads for ferries & inland waterway oil services but is showing signs of being incorporated into tugs and even a few "showcase" freighters. I only know of about 30 boats that are true hybrid electric right now (pleasure craft excluded). It is in its infancy.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Metro,
    Not only miles, the truck shows are coming up soon. Check with Tim, be nice to see a road running rig at the shows.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    The paint is dry, but the only thing I see in the price is wet paint. Trucks should help with sales pipeline and investor discovery and recognition. A price double off the lows attached to good news will help get those watching and waiting for evidence of market acceptance. Adding production lines as a backlog develops in gives the stock a chance to appreciate along with cheaper capitol.

     

    These non-auto OEM applications should make for a healthier growth curve. There is a lot of risk in developing $50 Million of capacity as an entry point to get the sale. That said, a 100K battery/year initial auto sale is only 1 or 2 more lines, well within reach.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    JohnM> the nice thing about production capacity is that while $50 million is the target for a 10-line facility and purchased building, the expansion can happen in $3.5 million additions inside a building that Axion has already leased. It's not an all or none proposition and electrode capacity can be ramped to keep pace with demand rather than relying on the "if you build it they will come" theory of capital spending.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that we see a trade of 109.7K at $0.25 after the early action is all $0.2499 or lower (much lower!) and that trade is roughly 1/2 the volume to that point, 220,270. 1/2 = 110,135.

     

    MM: hammer price buying shares for a large buy order I've got and then sell those to my customer?

     

    Since *all* the bids and asks were at or below yesterday's close and no one jostled to get in front at the open ...

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2042) | Send Message
     
    HTL, that would be my guess. After all, that's gotta be better for a fund than buying a million+ shares in the open market. If this is true, when the accumulation is done, there will be much incentive to pump up the price before February in case of an offering.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Market maker games are the surest sign yet that they have to work for their supply side instead of merely filling sell orders. When the market gets more comfortable that the heavy pressure is gone and the market is in investor hands, buying confidence should increase.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Maya after reading that E-Power tidbit I just wish I had more dry powder. It's probably the 10th re-affirmation in my mind this technology is game changing!

     

    Great excerpt heading into the holiday weekend. Enjoy turkey day gents.
    21 Nov 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I forgot it is Thanksgiving in the U.S. Just as well I'm not there as I've put on about 20 lbs in the last 6 months and have just settled into eating like a skinny person again. I went to rent a tuxedo for the St. Andrew's Ball in 10 days time and they had to special order it from the factory as I've grown to the girth where I won't let any profile pictures be taken of me.
    21 Nov 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Well, with price now at $0.26 (+6.56%) and a little *early* volume in that range, maybe I should start trusting my experimental charts.

     

    Buy:sell (11:20) 6.25:1, volume already 243.4K,

     

    But I'm still leery ... LoL! Probably as I watch price run away ... if I had any powder left!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Just in case I remain at the bottom of the heap with 10k at $0.221 and a ladder lower. On the off chance someone gets a bit nervous, you understand!
    21 Nov 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Albert: Yes I do - hope springs eternal and only TB's $0.16 is yet unfilled, AFAIK.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    I have a $0.245 bid for 10K on offer.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    I won't be harping on that plan HTL. I really don't expect to see that price unless:

     

    1. We see a tough general correction (perhaps triggered by tax selling if enough panic at the prospect of the new tax rules?)

     

    2. TG fails to land a strategic partner and we go without good sales and revenues news into 2013

     

    3. Axion really does have to turn to the same group of flippers that they brought in at $.35 last time and who have (whodda thunk it?), according to the CC, shown interest in another round

     

    4. AND the new offering is once again a juicy discount to a prevailing market price under $.30, perhaps around the quixotically sticky $.25 level...
    21 Nov 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    How fast can a market take off?
    My first thought was that a testing period of three months would have to occur in order to properly show that the dynamic charge acceptance ability of the PbC will not weaken as in AGM batteries. We all believe that the Norfolk Southern testing has already shown this. But real world application must be done and it does take time. The interesting factor to me is that the marketing can be done prior to the test being completed. At 50 batteries per truck it only takes 40 trucks to equal one railroad locomotive. I am unsure how many drive trains epower can turn out. But Axion's present capacity is over 3 trucks per day worth of PbCs.

     

    So lets hope that the little class 8 that can, will be monitored to the hilt and the marketing can be achieved simultaneously. Mid 2013 could be a wonderful conference call.

     

    As a side note we do not want to forget the original NS999 and the terrible real world results of that battery test.
    21 Nov 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    Let's just say Thanksgiving 2013 could be very good for Axionistas!!

     

    NS 999 with about 10 months of real world operation.

     

    ePower class 8 truck with one year of operation.

     

    Energy HUB with 11 months of UL approval.

     

    Powercube applications beginning to ramp.

     

    Possible announcement of BMW application.

     

    In addition other connections with the above applications such as other trucks, autos, and trains.

     

    I like our chances for success!!!
    21 Nov 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, Don't forget the HUBs in the field with 6-11 months of operation. Maybe we can get Justin Bieber to endorse one. Put one in the parents house eh!

     

    And most important, A possible known partner in some sector.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    " How fast can a market take off?"

     

    As quickly as an E-Power Engine Systems PR announcing order of one or more additional new trucks, a Rosewater Energy Group PR announcing UL cert of the HUB, an Axion or Rosewater PR announcing one or more PowerCube sales.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if you guys have already covered this (obvious! 8^P) google search.

     

    Not sure what to make of this bit of ePower history, but it may show the ability to deliver some sales quickly. From a 3/2011 article:

     

    "Vehicles converted to the ePower engine system have been able to demonstrate a reduction in fuel consumption of up to 65 percent, prompting Mark Huber, CEO of Corporate Ventures, to purchase 200 ePower engine systems."

     

    http://bit.ly/QaY0lE

     

    Corporate Ventures turns out to be an investment bank, per their website:

     

    http://bit.ly/UJG7XX

     

    Interesting that they would have placed an order (and a biggie at that) for the ePower trucks. Maybe if their order never actually was completed (TG mentioned some snags that ePower had but didn't elaborate), they might want to re-order, now that the solution should have (hopefully!) batteries that work.

     

    I don't know if this is JP's VC contact.
    21 Nov 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Would those 200, if they currently exist and are already on the road, be possible candidates for PbC retrofit?

     

    Alternatively, maybe they haven't been delivered yet and PbC's will find their way into them as new...
    21 Nov 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    E-Power Engines vehicles ISTM is a preferred sale at this point in time for Axion. IIUC, Axion delivers batteries and only batteries for that application. Minimal working capital requirements for Axion in that case and strong profit margins.
    21 Nov 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    No . My contact is a former H&Q Banker in Lyon.
    21 Nov 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the 200 have beendet built Set.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    200 trucks = 10 locomotives worth of PbCs.
    I don't know how long it will take to build the engines but we might want to stock up on some more carbon.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Maybe, but not yard switcher locomotives, Fut. 200 trucks @ 52 PbCs per truck = 10,400 PbCs. NSC's latest info suggests the NS999 will use 864 PbC 30HT batteries configured in 16 strings of 54 batteries per string.

     

    Past carbon orders and disclosed PbC deliveries suggest Axion currently has on hand more than double the carbon needed to the number of PbCs needed for 200 E-Power Engine System trucks AND those needed for the NS999.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1149) | Send Message
     
    I'm loving the "rational exuberance" on the APC this week, during the week of Thanksgiving no less.
    21 Nov 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Wayne: pay no attention - we haven't taken our lithium meds for a long time and the hyper-thyroid effects are easily seen.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Wayne,
    Excellent point. This group is not always rational. This time we seem to be accepting good news with little current expectations.
    Except we know the price will fall upon the announcement of good news. That is the way with Axion. Sell on the rumor. Sell on the news. :-)
    21 Nov 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Interesting to see a chemical co. buy a battery company.

     

    Maybe their M&A team just doesn't know how to spell? I'd like to buy an I Pat? No not Pod. Jeez.

     

    Battery systems maker Axeon Group acquired by Johnson Matthey

     

    http://bit.ly/WkhFh3
    21 Nov 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I wonder what the purchase price was?

     

    Axeon is not a cell manufacturer. It buys off the shelf cells and integrates them into modules and packs. That doesn't strike me as a particularly attractive IP position.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. I agree in light of your comments on cell manufacturing.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    "In October, Johnson Matthey acquired the Axeon Group for £40.6 million in cash."

     

    http://bit.ly/WkjhHI
    21 Nov 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    So it was a little under 1x annual sales.
    21 Nov 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Appears so. Not exactly a huge price for a growing biz. But considering the lag in automotive PHEV/EV take up and the European financial situation perhaps not horrible.
    21 Nov 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Thinking TG is proofing up a news release about ePower, Axion and Rosewater "as we speak." Last year, I was at the PowerCube unveiling the first Monday after Thanksgiving.

     

    Possibly all about kicking off the Holiday investing season...in style.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    I guess if it will not do the difficult work in a locomotive you gotta step out of the way and just supply the toy companies. Let the pro's handle the real work. ;)

     

    'Bigfoot' builders tackle EV monster truck

     

    "The all-electric, Odyssey car batteries-sponsored rig will be the first electric monster truck to go on exhibition, Yahoo Autos reports.

     

    The EV Bigfoot is powered by 30 lead-acid car batteries, generating about 360 volts of power."

     

    http://bit.ly/WkiVRA
    21 Nov 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Much easier regenerative braking profile!

     

    i wonder what the sponsor is paying for the right to provide the batteries.
    21 Nov 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Obviously just an advertising situation. And they should be able to keep the batteries alive if they charge it up right after the show. Far lighter duty than the NS 999.
    21 Nov 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    No different than a big golf cart. Lead acid batteries do fine because they don't have to cycle.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    I'm liking today's action much better, ignoring price. We have a much more reasonable mixture of buy and sell going on with *normal* "negotiation going on - even the usual suspects leap-frogging each other.

     

    Through 13:50: Buy:Sell 3.45:1, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2487, Vol 357239, AvTrSz: 4106 on 64 trades.

     

    So whatever was going on yesterday seems to be over.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I don't see the movement in retrofits. Looking at the ROI information on the ePower web site a complete retrofit would be between $50-75k which is a big chunk of change to put into a used truck (not that it won't be done, it has already).

     

    I see the good things happening when you can put the design into a new truck and this can be done NOW! If ePower would get together with Fitzgerald Glider Kits you could buy a new Custom Hybrid that can be financed as a new truck. Glider kits come directly from the factory with one or more key components (engine, transmission) missing.

     

    If this doesn't get your blood racing I don't know what will...

     

    http://bit.ly/UJMGd8
    21 Nov 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    Brilliant, Tim! Well, as long as the ROI makes sense.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Have I got this wrong or does it appear that ePower can buy the freightliner cab ( the Glider) and simply install their own hybrid drivetrain? How great is that. Got my blood racing.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,

     

    They could probably get setup to purchase glider kits but the fast track would be to just partner with Fitzgerald as the have a large following and a great relationship with Freightliner. And yes, they could order the complete tractor minus the engine and transmission...
    21 Nov 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Damn,
    If ePower did it with Axion's help, we could call it the New Truck the class8carbonator by ePower
    21 Nov 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (2566) | Send Message
     
    I see Fitzgerald hails from Crossville, Tennessee, a late summer hang-out of some myself and some college friends, where one would usually find us sitting under oak trees popping squirrels with a .22, all bound for a pot of squirrel dumpling stew.

     

    Man, those were the days.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL AXIONISTAS!

     

    JP: How much are you spending this year on a Swiss turkey, $145?
    21 Nov 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I spent $20 on a 20# Butterball. However, the wine cost about $100 for 750 litres. Its French wine so I suspect John could buy the same wine for $20.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Probably, unless I go for one of the expensive birds from Bresse in France.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    A Pinot Noir will normally work well but I prefer a rose. In SW France we have lovely local wines at much less that $10/bottle.

     

    Of course the Axionistas may one day turn their noses up to such good value.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Albert,

     

    Not me! there are lots of good wines that satisfy under $10 and Axion at $5 won't change that. I am Red wine kind of guy. Any suggestions?
    21 Nov 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    A decent Pinot in the States start around $20. A little more $ gets you much more in taste.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I like my less expensive red wines also.
    Try this website. The total wine chain now sells 1 Billion dollars of wine and liquor per year. They go to many wineries and purchase 50% of their production. This leaves them with great wines for private labeling and leaves the producers with costs paid and half a crop to sell however they wish. Its a good business plan and some great wines for the consumer.

     

    http://www.totalwine.com

     

    You can tell the private label wines by the WineryDirect designation.
    They have over 100 stores ( most on the eastern side of US) but web sales are available in some states. I know many of the wines if anyone has a question about them. As I tell the Mrs. "I'm a wine enthusiast. Not a wino."
    21 Nov 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Rachel had a glass of '45 Petrus a couple years ago and thought it was very nice.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Sadly Red wine and I are at best nodding acquaintances. I love it but it hates me in the morning. Something like my first wife.

     

    Besides, even though I have a great big nose it really is just for show; just like a politican's promise, lots of show but of little use.

     

    I suspect JP might be a better judge.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    JP, why am I thinking the cost of one bottle of '45 Petrus is greater than my annual budget for my favorite red wines?
    21 Nov 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    At $5,000 a bottle I would think she could say something a little more descriptive than "very nice". :-)
    21 Nov 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Albert,
    Try not drinking the entire bottle yourself. First rule of feeling better in the morning. :-)
    21 Nov 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Okay, small correction, at $5000 it would be in the free wine for the rest of your life category...
    21 Nov 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Total Wine is an awe inspiring, wondrous WalMart-sized spirits store spectacular.

     

    Of course, they are not allowed in PA, so I drive down to Delaware when I need to stock up. Even Tom Corbitt, governor and once the PA State Attorney General, admitted even he broke the law in buying booze from Total Wine, and illegally bringing it back into PA.

     

    For an hour and a half round trip, I can save $60 on a case of Ron Zacapa. I absolutely would not want to be there tonight, it would be a crammed zoo.

     

    Heck, just driving down to my local WAWA today was an adventure.

     

    21 Nov 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I think it's closer to $10,000 – http://bit.ly/STWBN6

     

    A couple of dear friends got married after living together for 17 years while he finished a divorce (things like that can drag out in Switzerland). The groom's dad apparently bought the bottle when the groom was born and they uncorked it for the wedding.

     

    Since I don't drink and there were a number of other guests who do, it only seemed polite for me to pass.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I see that your state also does not allow TW to ship wines to you.

     

    To bad my friend. I use to work for them. I really miss the employee 30% discount and the free case of wine per month. What a perk that was.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    No fun facing not quite empty bottles in the morning. Better to beat the suckers the night before.

     

    For an unusual but tasty white why not try the Albarino grape. Our current house wine is from Eidosela from Spain. Very nice with shrimp, pasta etc. Here in Bermuda its about $18 but I suspect similar wines in the US probably priced about $12 or less.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I happen to like the Albarino grape. Spanish white wines are everyday lovely.
    But to drink Red wine you simply must take a antihistamine tablet prior to going to dinner. This will counteract the response your body has to the Tannins in the wine. Please note that these tablets will make you drowsy. Just plan on not driving to or from dinner.
    Good luck with your new found hobby of red wines.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    Too bad Rhode Island is one of those "mail order Prohibitionist" states! When AXPW hits $5, however, I shall have an alternate address as well!
    21 Nov 2012, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Maya> You'll be delighted to hear that I found a 9.25 pound turkey for a bargain price of $78. It should be tasty.
    22 Nov 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2855) | Send Message
     
    Proof of few "turkeys" is swiss land <:=))).

     

    Have a Happy Thanksgiving, John.
    22 Nov 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    And those few are very well cared for free-range birds that are always sold fresh.
    22 Nov 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Live in the burbs. Original farm house for the area is about 3/4 mile away (restored by the town). On the way to pick up my mother noticed 10-15 wild turkey in the side yard. Wild turkey are all over the place in NY. During the DDT years you would never see a wild turkey. Now they are more prevalent than cats and dogs in many areas.
    22 Nov 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I've heard they're tastier than cats and dogs too!
    22 Nov 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    Regarding wild turkeys, they are frequently seen here crossing the streets of our small city in Michigan. They live in the ravine along the creek--within the city.
    22 Nov 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    They seem to have adapted well to humans. Odd because the ones further out in the wild are adept at avoiding humans most often.

     

    I just saw this and smiled. Only in America.

     

    Wild Turkeys Overrun Brookline, Mass.

     

    http://abcn.ws/UhQjuA

     

    Funny to see someone that grew up in the woods crossing the street to avoid them. I remember as a young child running from the geese on the farm that would bite my rear if they caught me. My father didn't say anything and let me learn on my own. One day I turned and stood my ground and from then on I realized running was not the correct action with most animals.

     

    Anyway, It's nice to see them recover unlike many song birds and pheasant as examples.
    22 Nov 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    About the warranty, the main components come from John Deere and Marathon Electric so I would assume the standard warranty would pass through. This leaves the only the controls that ePower provides as the warranty issue. Is my thinking right on this?
    21 Nov 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    All I know is that the epower website said 500,000 mile warranty. I suspect they are warranting the hybrid drive system. In automobiles the car manufacturers cover the batteries as part of the hybrid warranty. I would have many questions for Epower before I would buy.

     

    What would a normal overhaul of an engine and transmission cost?
    How often is that done?
    21 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Most people start with an "in frame" rebuild of the engine that can range from $15-25k depending on the use of OEM parts or after market parts. Depending on how things look you could do this a couple times before dropping in a new engine. I am not sure what a new engine would cost as I don't hear about that much.

     

    The transmission is usually only replaced when it starts making noise or you get a bad fluid test. I don't have any idea as to the cost because I don't hear much about these failing...
    21 Nov 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    So lets say you could do a $25000 rebuild or a $75000 hybrid makeover.
    Whats the gas savings in 4 years?
    21 Nov 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    ePower talks about fuel savings of $37,000 per year.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    The "fuel" <smile> savings would more than makeup for the difference and according to ePower in two years. Funding the makeover would be the challenge...
    21 Nov 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The economics are very similar to those of a battery powered locomotive. I just hope performance in the hands of the purchaser lives up to ePower's somewhat lofty ambitions.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    If the performance lives up or comes fairly close, its a winner on paper. Of course, it has to be reliable as well. Tim you bring up the funding challenge--very pertinent. For a new truck that would largely be a matter of leasing or financing being available I suppose?
    21 Nov 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Financing a new truck is pretty straight forward and available because the collateral is a new truck...
    21 Nov 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I'm a little concerned about ePower's reliability.

     

    I think the solution works with a PbC. But I don't see how they could have been warrantying it for 500,000 miles using AGM batteries, not given their limited cycle life.

     

    So how do we know their other claims have merit?

     

    D
    21 Nov 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    D.McH,
    This could explain their behavior in running back to the PbC.
    We have talked about the battery warranties being a driving force in the PbC future sales growth. This might be the first hint of that.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    It's a virtual certainty that the warranty is for mechanical parts and electrical parts only and expressly excludes the battery.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Just like the mainstream auto manufacturers.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Even though their warranty does not include the batteries, their computations on cost savings does not include replacing LABs every three months. Its a warranty by association I would think.
    Hybrids still have a consumer test to pass.
    Toyota has done it. How about the others?
    21 Nov 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    I agree that they make many unproven claims.

     

    But no doubt they would not guarantee the batteries. No different than the auto OEMs.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    I vote for Grandma Moses to be the experimental driver.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    The "gobble gobble gobble" lead in to this concentrator brought a smile to my face when I read it because it reminded me of the rental car gal in "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles" - and Steve Martin's F-bomb outrage at her after being left in the middle of the pick up lot with no car miles from the terminal. But she got in the last F word!
    21 Nov 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    PT & A is one of the absolute best x-mas movies ever. Nothing more frustrating than traveling with problems.
    21 Nov 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    http://engt.co/QvBVQg Re-stumbled across this, but seems like not much of a leap for them to use a cheaper and more capacious PbC in lieu of what has to be a more expensive capacitor...

     

    http://engt.co/UKa9e8 more recent info on the actual release..
    21 Nov 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (610) | Send Message
     
    I’m really impressed by the trucking scenario. It seems to be a nearly ideal market.

     

    25-50% fuel efficiency improvement is absolutely huge, especially when you consider that the trucking industry is extremely competitive and relatively low margin (5.7% operating margin for Con-Way Trucking in 2011) and that fuel constitutes about 30% of operating expenses (also Con-Way trucking). It would seem that a double-digit improvement in operating margin could be the difference between success and bankruptcy in this industry.

     

    One other thing I read in a quarterly report of Old Dominion Freight was that the cost of new tractors has increased $40k over the past ten years due to pollution control equipment. That would certainly help make rebuilds more attractive.

     

    So, these factors might explain the competition to be the first buyer. I further like that these trucking firms appear to be able and eager to move quickly.

     

    In addition to the trucking industry forces that would seem to make rebuilds using the ePower solution extremely attractive for us is the battery intensity of the solution.

     

    With 52 batteries at $400 each that is $20k+ for Axion for each rebuilt tractor. One rebuild a week is $1m in annual revenue to Axion. Fifteen rebuilds per week would come pretty close to making Axion profitable assuming no additional new revenue sources for Axion. That doesn’t seem like a huge number at all given the size of the industry. In fact, if one large trucking company like Con-Way ($5.3b in 2011 revenue and 9,000 tractors), decided to rebuild all their trucks at the appropriate point in their service lives using the ePower system it would make Axion highly profitable.
    21 Nov 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (610) | Send Message
     
    Question for Tim: Can you explain how a series hybrid electric drive tractor differs from a conventional tractor in terms of the driver? Would it be easier to learn to drive and operate? Would it save money on driver training and make driving safer?

     

    Thanks very much!
    21 Nov 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    apm: if the final design is what I hope it will be, the hybrid tractor should resemble a standard tractor with an autoshift transmission which removes the clutch and gearshift. The other difference will be a very powerful engine brake.

     

    Safer? with a good driver behind the wheel - yes! but the downside might be drivers behind the wheel that might not have made it in a standard tractor. The newbies that I have seen washed out did not belong behind the wheel.

     

    Saving money on driver training? there are required hours for a training center and certification. They didn't change the hours for the autoshift transmissions so I doubt they will change it of electric drive.

     

    I drive an autoshift transmission and think it funny that some drivers refuse to use them. I would jump at the opportunity to test drive an electronic drive but suspect it would be a hard sell to most of the drivers. Then again if it performs well we might be able to over come this. A ride in a bobtail (no trailer) eDrive might gather some interest as they get pushed back in the seat. However, the hill climbing is a pretty big deal to a driver as nobody likes be passed like you are standing still...
    21 Nov 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    As JP and other have already noted--I suspect the ePower truck will not make it where the grades are long and steep. For example, in West Vancouver they have such grades and they do not buy hybrid buses for those routes because the hills would overtax the small diesel engine.

     

    On the other hand, hybrids are favoured for routes that involve going up and down hills.
    22 Nov 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    "ePower truck will not make it where the grades are long and steep."

     

    :-) As one who hails from flatlander country, it has long been clear to me that "long and steep" mean different things to different people. I'm wondering how an ePower Engine Class 8 would fare at, say, 80K GVW traveling U.S. Interstate 81 North to South in pulling the grade between Roanoke and Christiansberg, Va. Elevation changes ~ 400ft with most of that change concentrated within a 3 - 5 mile roadway section.
    22 Nov 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    A bank of 52 PbCs would have roughly 26 kWh or 67.6 million foot pounds of energy. That would be enough to lift 80,000 pounds a total of 845 feet. Between efficiency losses and other factors I'm sure the useful climb number is smaller, but it gives us an idea.
    23 Nov 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    "A bank of 52 PbCs would have roughly 26 kWh or 67.6 million foot pounds of energy. That would be enough to lift 80,000 pounds a total of 845 feet."

     

    Thanks for running those numbers, JP. Very useful for realistic perspective formation.
    23 Nov 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "ePower truck will not make it where the grades are long and steep."

     

    Perhaps not the current version but what about using a 300 hp engine instead of 200 hp engine if the truck was to frequent mountainous terrain? a standard class 8 truck's fuel econmy will suffer in the hills and the ony gains on the other side is speed comming down the hill...
    23 Nov 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Tim: there's other technologies that could be applied if the iinterest was sufficient.

     

    Adapted from the auto industry, things like variable valve timing and cylinder disabling would allow a larger engine to get most of the benefits of the smaller engine while increasing power when need, controlled by a computer of course.

     

    The question in my mind would revolve around durability. Would either of these be deleterious to the life cycle or substantially increase maintenance expense? The VVT seems quite likely to do so. The savings might easily offset the added cost and if the added cost is small enough still make an attractive TCO price point.

     

    Disabling cylinders in an inline-6 would seem relatively innocuous and I would think would not add much to maintenance. This would let a, e.g. 300 HP-rated engine become a 200 HP unit. And the implementation of this technology is relatively cheap.

     

    in partial ignorance and MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Agreed. I would like to what kind of saving could be had by leaving the existing engine in place and replacing the transmisson with a generator, motor and bank of PbC's. Bigger engines have a larger displacement but they don't work as hard and the sweetspot is between 1300-1400 rpm not 1800.

     

    Personally, if this would get me to 10-11 mpg I would chose this route over the 12-14 mpg and smaller engine. The 3-4 mpg difference would have a $75k paid off in less than 2 years. I would not have a concern over my routes and the most important thing is that I keep my engine. The engine is integral to the operation of a modern truck as a whole. The rest of the drive train is not.

     

    So there its is. If phase II is to leave the stock engine alone, I am in...
    23 Nov 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Tim: If they did offer an after-market kit for, say, cylinder disabling, the conversion cost drops *hugely* not only because of the retention of the base engine components (block, crank, connecting rods, ... *maybe* even the head?) but the battery storage capacity could be re-sized to suit as well.

     

    With the extra HP on tap, less BSS capacity = less weight = even better fuel mileage.

     

    This strikes me as a no-brainer as cylinder disabling essentially involves nothing more than holding valves open or closed on the affected cylinders and cutting fuel injection to those same cylinders.

     

    A nice side-benefit is retained as well as a multi-stage Jake-brake would still be available with all the power of the original engine.

     

    So savings would also accrue on brake wear and maintenance.

     

    Since the tough engineering has already been done on this sort of thing for autos, the modifications, application and "proof of concept" for big diesels by a major engine manufacturer should be peanuts, meaning they could roll it out in both a reasonable time-frame and at a reasonable cost to the customer for the benefits obtained.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Sounds good to me...
    23 Nov 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Tim: scratch the jake-brake - I forgot we're talking series hybrid.

     

    The motor and batteries would be serving the equivalent function.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I remember in the early eighties gas crunch that some auto mechanic shops were putting solenoids on the valves and push rods to make the vehicles aftermarket 4-6-8 (gas) engines. This was started by GM in stock vehicles if I remember correctly. Shouldn't be too hard to adapt to diesel engines.
    23 Nov 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed: Yes. And ISTR that there were a few (maybe still are?) implementations in production engines ... from foreign makers?

     

    I also got to thinking about the jake-brake issue, which can be a really needed feature on max-load trips. It occurred to be that with properly designed electronics, motor (heat dissipation and ruggedness), an equivalent to a jake-brake could be implemented by applying counter-EMF, effectively run the current through the motor in reverse, or out of sync. You would need an advanced motor matched with appropriate control electronics such as might be available from UQM. The EMF could come from batteries, engine or both simultaneously. "Tuning" of braking would be available from "mild drag" to full-on "try to lock 'er down" modes. A benefit would be potentially available in the form of anti-lock sensors and programming too.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (610) | Send Message
     
    So, that's roughly 70m foot pounds of energy. Wikipedia shows that a 200hp motor produces 110,000 foot/pounds of energy per second so that means the batteries store about 11 minutes of the motors output.

     

    If the ideal sized engine is 600hp, would this mean that at maximum output, the battery/engine combination could meet this energy output level for about 5 1/2 minutes? Considering that the sweet spot is probably much less than fully cycling the batteries, it might be 1-2 minutes of running at 600hp which probably means moderate hills but certainly not the Rockies.

     

    What would be the potential of creating a maximum output that is higher, say 800hp?

     

    23 Nov 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that the batteries are not providing all the power. They're providing INCREMENTAL power for the time when the motor needs more than the generator can provide.
    23 Nov 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I have a background in electronics. Started with tubes and 3 phase electromechanical clipper circuits to get smooth high amperage dc voltage (done with relays) and moved on to transistors and silicon diodes, played with my first IC chip (a clocking circuit that made modern computers possible) in 1967. So I have a basic understanding of electronics even if all my training is dated (think the movie "Space Cowboys"). Unfortunately my electromechanical experience is limited to repairing washers, dryers and conventional cars, so while I may be able to build something that works, it would probably fill my garage and a newly trained engineer could build something that would be smaller than my laptop computer. Ahh, progress, ain't it sweet.

     

    They are talking about making IC chips using something like a printer on the silicon wafer and being 3 dimensional.

     

    Now I know how my grandfather felt. He was born in the 1890s, saw the first planes, autos, radios, TVs and how they advanced and lived to see the first men on the moon. It sure is hard to keep up with it all, but it sure is fun trying to. :-)
    24 Nov 2012, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Just for my perspective, If there is a mile long hill at 4% grade, that would be a vertical lift of about 212 feet. If the weight of the truck were lifted 212 feet vertically, then this would use about 1/4 of the battery energy. With the engine providing the bulk of the power and the running start to the hill, less the friction losses, my guess is that much less than 25% of the battery energy would be used - not sure how much less. Am I getting the gist of this correctly?
    24 Nov 2012, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I think I'd probably assume that it would take a little more than 1/4 of the battery energy if you wanted to maintain speed on the grade, but I'm not strong enough on those kinds of engineering questions to speak with confidence.
    24 Nov 2012, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Since HP calculations have a time component, I'd guess the speed decision would have a large effect.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Nov 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    For the record, there was a time when 200-300hp engines pulled these hills. They just did it very slowly. We run bigger engines now because they handle the smaller tasks better than the smaller engines handle the bigger tasks...
    24 Nov 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Let's say you want to maintain 60 mph up that grade for a mile... so it takes one minute... so you want to lift 80,000 lbs a total of 212 feet in one minute:

     

    (80,000 x 212) divided by 60 sec = 282,667 ft-lbs / sec

     

    Now, one horsepower = 550 ft-lbs / sec

     

    So, with no friction losses or aerodynamic drag, you'd need ~514 horsepower to climb that grade at 60 mph at full load..

     

    So the battery would have to produce 314 Hp for a minute.... or 314 x 550 x60 = 10,362,000 ft-lbs

     

    and 10,362,000 divided by 67,600,000 (John's number) = about 15% of the battery's total capacity... again, discounting friction and other losses..
    24 Nov 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that calculation 481086. It is trying for me to come up with the appropriate formulas and apply them correctly. Just trying to get an idea about what kind of hills the PbC could handle. Searched the internet for a few road profiles, but came up blank. I would think 4% for a mile would be a fairly large hill, outside of the mountain areas. Quarter-mile jaunts up would probably be handled fairly easily.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Pleasure, metro. Though I hope one of the esteemed engineers in residence will check my work. Losses due to drag, friction, and heating are going to be far from negligible, so 25% may be right after all. Still, I've been curious about the same things, and the pieces you and John provided made it much easier... so thinking, if the PbC bank is set to hang out at say ~90% SOC steady state... the rig should be able to handle a fair range of terrain... and that sounds good.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    "the rig should be able to handle a fair range of terrain."

     

    I'm thinking there is no obvious reason a larger diesel could not be used where the rig is expected to serve primarily in very hilly to mountainous terrain. In general, though, I've been wondering how that 200 hp diesel solution might fare in middle of the country moving away from the Mississippi Valley toward the Rockies and lesser mountain chains to the South. Wikipedia tells us that Dallas, TX has an elevation of 430 ft. while Abilene 185 miles to the West sits at 1,719 feet, Midland 150 mi. further West rests at 2,782 feet and ~350 miles further West El Paso nestles in at 3,800 ft. (Pretty much a lifetime back I noticed I always got much better gas mileage traveling East than I did heading West (~4 mpg as I recall) as one should expect given the lay of the land.)
    24 Nov 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    "We run bigger engines now because they handle the smaller tasks better than the smaller engines handle the bigger tasks... "

     

    Not always so true if one takes into consideration that at the end of the journey there is at least one party that is looking to optimize ROI. The rate of getting from place to place to optimize ROI is not the same for every delivery. And it's impacted by numerous variables with fuel prices always being at least one part of the equation. Times have changed with higher fuel prices.

     

    We turtles know that fast is not the only way to a successful finish. Some rallies are won with speed and some precision.
    25 Nov 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    ROI is included in my statement when you consider duty cycle and I am not convinced that it doesn't also include fuel economy. Fuel mapping has come a very long way. The "bigger is always better" part of me is way down the list...
    25 Nov 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tim.

     

    Is there a data base that's accessible to the industry that helps with the selection of equipment. Correct engine size, gear ratios, load ranges etc. for specific use patterns? If there is, are the specs vendor specific or generic industry data?
    25 Nov 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, there is and it is used by the folks that you work with when you spec/build a truck. our highway elevations have been mapped for some time and we are seeing the data in the electronics of the trucks. like smart/predictive cruise (whatever it is called). I would sure like to have access to the database for planning my routes...
    25 Nov 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tim, so it's a service that the retailers/manufacturers control thus making for limited access? Maybe there are device packages you can buy as a one off to do what we're talking about or a monthly service?

     

    Thanks for your comments here. I can see where this would be invaluable. Same as we see NSC doing with their Leader program and their research vehicles. Far easier for them to do due to common routes and far less variables such as variable traffic conditions.
    25 Nov 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it is a service for the retailers and I would love to be able to plot the most fuel efficient route by using it. such a service would be invaluable when managing the SOC in an electric hybrid such as ePower...
    25 Nov 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8857) | Send Message
     
    I think Tesla and other EV builders are working on similar software for their vehicles as well since SOC is even more important for BEV's.
    26 Nov 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Just got back from Pep Boys for a tire. (The whole transaction from buying the tire over the phone through install I'd rate them a 2 on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being best. Pure frustration due to incompetence).

     

    Anyway, I heard them sell 3 batteries and mentioned 8 year warranty. Asked. Response-All Bosch batteries. Guy was too busy to try to find out why. Would have been nice to see if it was a sale or some other reason why it was not Exide. Customers didn't ask for specific batteries. Totally dependent on Pep Boys personnel.
    (Overheard guy in front tell tech. they were going to put in a battery even though the tech said battery in car tested good. Finished the conversation in the shop area after the tech made a face.)
    21 Nov 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    When I am older and grayer, hope there will be PbC's available through Pep Boys as well as many other outlets. Renault in France has to be my favorite place to go for stories on customer service - i.e. "it isn't necessary to balance your tires after putting on new ones", and they didn't as I vibrated my way home till my hands were practically numb - soothing in a way as it was like having a Niagra chair.
    23 Nov 2012, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Axion seems to do do well when the initial design fails or has to be cost competitive. Here is a future opportunity.

     

    GM is investing in Bus. The EcoRide can complete a fast charge in 10 minutes and has up to 40 miles of range.

     

    http://bit.ly/SbxkRx

     

    Here is the bus link
    "...uses a fuel cell APU, but the design could just as easily accommodate a diesel, propane, CNG or gasoline generator. When a range extension APU is used, it serves as an on-board battery charger and only runs when needed and until the energy storage system reaches the desired state of charge..."
    http://bit.ly/RV25sM
    21 Nov 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    Proterra is using Altairnano's proprietary lithium-titanate battery systems
    http://yhoo.it/UKomYx

     

    ePower is the only hybrid I know using lead-acid (or rather lead carbon)
    Its so crazy it just might work.
    If it does, the opportunity for what you suggest could be huge.
    21 Nov 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Yahoo says that Altair, ALTI, has $32 Million in cash and a market Cap of $34 Mil. They should sell or liquidate before that $19M catches up.
    22 Nov 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Last summer a Chinese fund bought control of ALTI for $57 million and based on ALTI's most recent 10-Q it looks like they're getting ready to move the whole shooting match to China.
    22 Nov 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (65) | Send Message
     
    Mr. JP

     

    Did you author the article at link below? If not, do you know which former Axion Director did? TIA.

     

    http://bit.ly/UnNEgZ
    21 Nov 2012, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    He's sound asleep in Switzerland but I can confirm it for you. However, he doesn't write for the people who posted the article at your link above. Not sure how they pirated it. It originally appeared on Alt Energy here: http://bit.ly/XDugCl and was available a couple of days later on Seeking Alpha.
    21 Nov 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Since Bangwhiz has already answered my reply is surplus, but yes I did write that article.

     

    I've always had a very liberal attitude when it comes to people republishing my work so my articles seem to generate a lot of links and repostings.

     

    I just did a quick Google search for the phrase "cheap will beat cool in vehicle electrification" including the quotes and found that there are about 99,300 links to or reprints of that article floating around on the web.
    22 Nov 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    It would help if a few readers of those reposts would buy some of our stock! (Just kidding, but I couldn't resist.)
    22 Nov 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    It's really hard to estimate the impact of a blog like mine because my experience suggests that an article can "put eyes" on a stock and maybe drive volume, but it will have little or no impact on price.

     

    I wrote an Instablog on the subject in June (http://bit.ly/sk4Y20) that lays out my working theory of how the market responds to bloggers. The gist is that I think a small percentage of readers are willing to do the work required to climb their wall of worry and make a buying decision while a much larger percentage decide to watch and wait until a particular company "proves something" by getting a design win, building revenues to a minimum level or even building earnings to minimum level.

     

    If my theory is right, the number of people who are watching Axion and waiting to hit the buy button until the company accomplishes a specific goal is several times larger than the number of people who have already hit the buy button and it's up to Axion to move them off the fence.
    22 Nov 2012, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    That makes a lot of sense.

     

    And being visible to an audience who have already done DD on a stock could certainly amplify the effect of positive news.
    22 Nov 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The big problem with news is that if nobody's paying attention it doesn't matter whether the news is good or bad.

     

    Having a large number of people who are at least paying attention is always a good thing.
    22 Nov 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Indeed.

     

    This line in the article you linked to relates to another stock I own:

     

    "I don't care what you say about me, as long as you say something and as long as you spell my name [and my stock symbol] right."

     

    DVAX announced some bad news last week, and DYAX, which I own, suffered momentarily, allowing a few lucky traders to score a handful of shares at an extreme discount, all at the expense of course of a weak holder or two who had no idea what was going on.
    22 Nov 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mac325
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Fifth Gear test of the Renault Megane start stop system. Jump to segment 3 on the menu that appears when you mouse over the video.

     

    http://bit.ly/QbJKcv
    22 Nov 2012, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Mac325,
    Thanks for providing the link. Real world evidence of the shortcomings of the "inferior" batteries when the S/S stops working after several stops. Good to see they were able to get the 10% reduction in fuel usage even with the engine restarting because of the electrical load. Imagine the PbC doing even better, and would like to see them replicate the test after six months of driving. I would really like to see a similar direct comparison between PbC and AGM.
    22 Nov 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    What an entertaining video. Excellent editing and commentary.

     

    Like metro, I would love to see a comparison of AGM and PbC, especially as regards hotel function forcing the engine to restart while at a standstill.
    22 Nov 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Mac, Thanks for sharing. In a new vehicle the AGM should be fine as the others suggest. Unfortunately most people don't realize that it's the short term aging process that impacts the enhanced flooded and AGM batteries. So they had success. Wish, As Metro suggested, they did a model with an older battery.
    22 Nov 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    From: Q2 2012 Transcript

     

    http://bit.ly/R1tFHI;I=

     

    Pag.: 26

     

    I don’t think we can get into a whole lot of that other than to say it’s more than one or two. We’re working with more than one locomotive company and now we have an important initiative that we’re hoping moves forward rather rapidly in Asia with another OEM integrator. But, we have the two major relationships that we’ve been working where we’ve been working with those automotive companies - BMW specifically and another large U.S. automotive manufacturer - for years.

     

    Mr TG said:
    We’re working with more than one locomotive company!!!
    Question: Wich one is the other? or It could be the other? What mean "ASIA" (...Asia with another OEM integrator).

     

    Thanks-Carlos
    22 Nov 2012, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    SWAG - other locomotive company - Brookville
    -by Asia, I think that refers to whom we believe is possibly Toyota.
    22 Nov 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Metro, I 'd been watching Brookville for any signs of both the NS999 going forward (In the past) and for a relationship with Axion. As we know they contributed to the original NS999 program. They also sell some mining related stuff and that's a perfect fit for battery locomotives as well.

     

    Anyway, Nothing even subtle to indicate any relationship with Axion.
    22 Nov 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807)