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  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    My oh my.
    23 Nov 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    So close!
    23 Nov 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Almost two in a row.
    23 Nov 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I once had three APC 1sts in a row... at least my turkey-loaded brain likes to think that.

     

    Like winning my fantasy football league twice... one of those lifetime achievements that's a great conversation starter at parties, if you like to be left alone with your drink. LOL.

     

    However, in context, like in this APC room, to he or she that arrives first to the new blog, a carbon-studded crown.
    23 Nov 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    11/21/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog.
    # Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 109700, Vol 435540, AvTrSz: 5311
    Min. Pr: 0.2325, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2498
    # Buys, Shares: 61 344590, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2507
    # Sells, Shares: 21 90950, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2465
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.79:1 (79.1% “buys”), DlyShts 236170 (54.22%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 259.67%

     

    Well, after yesterday's very odd behavior, today was a big relief to me. We had “normal” intra-day price movements, a mixture of “buys” and “sells” throughout the day, indications of the market-maker(s) having to work for their bread (as JP mentioned in a comment), as evidenced by an apparent pushing price down to accumulate shares for a larger buy by a market-maker customer, and decent rise with volume into the close to finish +6.26% (IIRC) on the day at $0.26 on a 10K “buy”. Best of all ...

     

    The daily shorts are back to normal behavior (I thought I would see it yesterday but I was unusually wise and kept my mouth shut), indicating that the abnormal environment (my best guess is MMs excessively long or a lot of intra/inter-broker trades) is ended for the moment. This was with “decent”volume on the day.

     

    Our low for the day may be disturbing until you realize that we have what would appear to be a “normal” distribution for a “normal” market, as opposed to yesterday's quixotic behavior. At the two extremes, we have an essentially “balanced” distribution as a percentage of the days activity. I note this only because I'm looking for confirmation that things are apparently getting back to rational behavior. Seeing an approximation of a “bell curve” (albeit a bit skewed) in the following, I am comforted. :-))

     

    0.2325-0.2399 62070 14.25%, 13500 Sell, 48570 Buy All 09:37-10:07
    0.2600-0.2600 68820 15.80%, 05000 Sell, 63820 Buy 11:04 on, intermittent

     

    Betwixt those extremes:
    0.2400-0.2499 042000 09.64%, 15500 Sell, 026500 Buy
    0.2500-0.2549 214800 49.32%, 56950 Sell, 157850 Buy
    0.2550-0.2599 047850 10.99%, 00000 Sell, 047850 Buy
    0.2600-0.2600 068820 15.80%, 05000 Sell, 063820 Buy

     

    On the traditional TA front ...

     

    We have an outside reversal exhibiting, in this case, as a “bullish engulfing pattern”. Bulkowski notes it acts as a bullish reversal 63% of the time, which is pretty good - ranking in the top quarter at 22nd out of 103 patterns. Unfortunately, indicated performance after 10 days is not good. In the times I've watched this though, there is generally at least a short-term bullish move that can be quite “decent”.

     

    Price continues to push through and come back above our falling support, now at ~$0.2445. We also touched and bounced off my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, 0.2353. Most of the oscillators are again(!) curling up and only the stochastic and ADX have yet to begin moving more bullishly. Momentum has actually moved above neutral now at 1.02 – not strong but much better than recent readings. Combined with an early bullish PSAR (which I generally don't consider – I don't have a lot of faith in it) and all the other things I've mentioned, I think we can again go challenge the 50-day SMA, $0.2844 and falling.

     

    On my experimental charts, the trend in average trade size continues lower, suggesting as JP noted, that market-makers are having to work harder, with the big sellers ostensibly out of play. At the same time, the trend in recent buy:sell continues to recover from a down trend that seems to have started around 10/1 and ended around 11/8. Volume continues to strengthen from the lows of 11/15 and 11/16 and finished above all it's averages. Hopefully it continues to rise slowly rather than making a reversion to a level below the averages again. But Friday will be only a half day, so expect lower volume I guess.

     

    My experimental inflection point calculations are approaching a critical test I think.

     

    Further discussion omitted here, in consideration of those without an interest, but is in my experimental instablog.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "I think we can again go challenge the 50-day SMA, $0.2844 ..."

     

    :-) I'd rather go challenge $2.844, but that would challenge me to decide just how greedy I am.
    23 Nov 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I hope all had a great turkey day! I, for one, had a fantastic day. First off I think it is safe to finally come out of the closet as a faithful Redskins fan since the 60's. I am even considering taking the burgundy and gold bag off my head. If they beat the Giants next Monday night I'm going to become a true believer again and buy a RGIII jersey.

     

    I have to give the Cowboys credit for scaring me towards the end, but RGIII's final drive and FG put the stake in their heart to stay. Talking about the Skins beating the Giants is easy. Actually doing it is another whole story. We'll see.

     

    Incidentally, my brother and I spoke on the phone during the holiday. Thanks to my encouragement on buying Axion he's down 4 grand on his AXPW stock (groan!). He asked me what I thought the stock would be in two years and I said $4-$5. I hope that remark doesn't come back to haunt me in a couple years. When he bought it I said "you won't lose a penny!" OMG.
    23 Nov 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (989) | Send Message
     
    banqwhiz

     

    "When he bought it I said "you won't lose a penny!" OMG."

     

    I too have brought AXPW to the attention of family and friends...fortunately, with the caveat of volatility and a difficult to judge time horizon.
    The usual unknowns...timing...lu... games...timing...trolls...needless to say, the key variable is timing...IMHO.
    23 Nov 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    He'll be ok. Just take a while. I told him it might get uglier but just hang on.
    23 Nov 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've spent a couple days thinking about whether a bottom feeder mentality is still appropriate, or for that matter sane. For 2-1/2 years we've had the big uglies pushing stock into the market despite the fact that their behavior was damaging to the common good. While I'm not a vindictive sort, I see no reason to pay somebody who insists on selling more than he's willing to accept.

     

    By my count the market has absorbed over 56 restricted shares during that period. I think almost all that buying has come from active and passive Axionistas because they're the only people who know about the technology and the company. Given the market's behavior since late October, I think the disruptive sellers are no longer in control of the market.

     

    In about 90 days Tom Granville will be sitting across the table from somebody who wants to negotiate pricing terms on an investment. Regardless of whether the other side is strategic or financial, the key factor they're going to use as a starting point is the price chart. If the price is wallowing it will provide very little comfort to the new investor who's No. 1 concern is not losing money. If the price is firming it will strengthen Tom's "that was then, this is now" pitch and inspire a higher level of confidence. It may also provide a little extra nudge to investors who might otherwise want to wait for more proof.

     

    For 2-1/2 years Axionista fortunes have ebbed and flowed because of somebody else's decisions. Now it looks like the decision making power is all in Axionista hands. If Axionistas sit on those hands until the next deal is done, they'll have no basis to bitch about pricing.

     

    In the movies Gordon Gecko could say "You tell the man, Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel." That's not going to happen with Axion, but the direction is in the hands of the Axionistas.
    23 Nov 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    If an excellent and highly bullish featured article by you on Axion can't seem to budge the stock price, I doubt there is much the rest of us can do. One starting idea would be to forward the article to any of our friends and family known to be investors. Even then, many who might be interested are likely to await some positive news.

     

    If TG is confident of a series of significantly favorable Axion news throughout 2013, I'd like to see him go for no more than about 4 to 6 months of capital at the next raise, depending on the AXPW price at the time of negotiations.
    23 Nov 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (410) | Send Message
     
    Those waiting to buy significantly more shares need a reason to buy higher. Recurring sales of hubs, trucks, or trains is sufficient. Regular sales of any any application will demonstrate that the commercial ramp up has begun. Those of us that watch closely see that all of the irons are hot and the cows are rounded up. It's time for some branding.
    23 Nov 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The last time Axion's 20-day volume was this low was in the mid-June to mid-July timeframe. That means a lot of people who were buying are now waiting or bottom feeding. The problem is that bottom feeding eventually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and a new investor is perfectly right in saying "your existing stockholders apparently don't believe in you so why should I?"

     

    Investors hate participating in deals that don't provide a minimum of 12 to 18 months of running room. They look at anything smaller as a sign of weakness and get even more aggressive. For 2-1/2 years the Axionistas have taken a blood sport attitude when it comes to buying. The next round will pay up, but only if the Axionistas force the issue. Ultimately this is a group dynamic issue because the behavior of one or two individuals won't change anything. Collectively the Axionistas are far stronger than anyone imagines.
    23 Nov 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Alpha,

     

    Axionistas own over 25% of Axion's stock. (I tend to think it is closer to 40% or more) This concentrator has helped inform us and enabled many of us to buy and hold large amounts of Axion's stock.

     

    I have been concerned for some time that we are now holding the price down because we have learned too well how to bottom feed. As a relatively new investor I have learned to be patient and bought shares for far less than I would have been able to without this concentrator. I believe lurkers have also learned to be more patient and wait for the inflection point. I believe there are many well informed readers of this blog who are waiting till breaking news before they jump in. They can afford to because this site allows them to not be caught unaware of late breaking news.

     

    One investor can't do much to raise the pps off this bottom. However, if we all begin to realize the value we have and begin to pay a couple cents more, the price should begin to appreciate as it should. I have been out of dry powder for a long time. It will be the end of January before I can count on much more. I would be glad to do my part and pay a little more for shares to hopefully get this thing turned around.
    23 Nov 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    JVeal: "I have been out of dry powder for a long time"

     

    Well, you and I should be happy since "misery loves company"! :-((

     

    I've got some potential DP when I can close my short coverd calls on another instrument and it's looking to be a very nice gain. But until then, "No habla dry powder" as I need DP to buy back those contracts.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    >>>Investors hate participating in deals that don't provide a minimum of 12 to 18 months of running room. They look at anything smaller as a sign of weakness and get even more aggressive. <<<

     

    I'd rather see Axion raise 6 months of capital at 20c a share than 18 months at 30c. Seems to me that, framed the right way, an approach such as this would be seen as a sign of strength.
    23 Nov 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I will have more capital available to commit to AXPW on the first of the year. Part of me wants to be able to buy the stock at 25c a share, but the wiser part of me would be happy to pay 35c a share or more.
    23 Nov 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    As an investor I'd rather see that outcome too. As a lawyer who's spent 30 years negotiating this kind of deal, I can assure you that the investors want to see 12 to 18 months of running room.

     

    Nobody who's bought stock over the last couple years believes the market price is a true indication of fair value. Personally I believe the stock would have never fallen below $1.15 in the absence of bad behavior by some very big investors.

     

    Axion's cumulative paid-in capital is $95.8 million, or roughly $0.84 per share. It used that money to take the PbC from science fair project to a pre-commercial product that's drawing rave reviews in several billion-dollar niches. Instead of trading at a deep discount to the per share capital contribution, it should at least be trading at a modest premium.

     

    Since inception Axion has spent $32.6 million on R&D. If 95% of battery R&D is a total loss, then the 5% that succeeds should be worth 20x the investment. Otherwise nobody would have an incentive to spend the R&D money.

     

    Given my druthers we'd have a reasonably fair stock price when the offering came together and nobody would even care whether they raised 6 or 18 months of operating capital.
    23 Nov 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Axionistas have nibbled and gnawed at this stock all the way from $1+ down to the 20c low. They are as full as diners after the proverbial Thanksgiving turkey feast. It might be worth considering where the stock price would be today without them, rather than urge that they should eat even more turkey in an effort to avert another painful down round in early 2013. Existing stockholders can only do so much. The company has to develop its story to make it attractive enough to new investors, retail and otherwise.
    23 Nov 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The company can only proceed as quickly as its customers proceed. Just as there's no bid fairy for the stock there's no order fairy for Axion. There is, however, a time constraint. It's up to each of us to decide which flavor of pain we prefer.
    23 Nov 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    There is still time for HUB UL certification news before year end, followed by early January HUB sales.

     

    News will move the stock. How strong hands are in the 0.32 to 0.34 range will determine whether pps holds or it is sell-the-news.

     

    Besides, if retail holders on this board are going to pay the freight, Axion could try throwing in warrants to us to sweeten the pot.

     

    I am personally out of DP anyway.
    23 Nov 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There's time for any number of good things to happen. But that time is short enough that people who are continuing to bottom feed need to understand that they're potentially doing more harm than good. I'm the first to understand a lack of DP as I prepare for an international move and have decided to sell most things rather than moving them.

     

    My point is that a mentality that served well for the last 2-1/2 years isn't appropriate to the new realities and somebody has to say so.
    23 Nov 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "damn the bottomfeeders (torpedoes)! full speed ahead..."
    23 Nov 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Sure does look to me like Nov. 12 was the bottom of the fifth Elliot Wave down that began on May 2.

     

    Seems we have very weak resistance at 27 cents (close of Nov. 1), and then a stronger resistance levels at 33 through 36 cents, where there's a "six-tubble top," ;-) which takes us all the way back to May.

     

    I'm still in bottom feeding mode, with a six month 25K order put in last week for 18 cents. Near zero chance I'll get'em.

     

    Looking forward to Monday morning when Axion, I believe, will do their press release of what is now on Rosewater's site. In addition, hoping that press release will include who Axion, Rosewater, ePower Systems is in bed with.

     

    Thanks for that link, Carlos!

     

    ####

     

    bangwhiz: You have one heck of a whizbang QB. He's a thriil to watch!

     

    ####

     

    HTL: "No habla dinero." Hilarious. Reminds me of one time I was "Spanglish-ing" with a bunch of Copaneco women in Honduras. It was hot that day, and I said, "Yo soy muy caliente." Translation is: "I am very hot." As in, I think I'm a hot looking guy. All the ladies laughed, hands covering their mouths. I then later on learned that the proper way to say that I am sweating hot is to say, "Yo soy muy calor."

     

    It's, "No tengo dinero," brother Hard.
    23 Nov 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I've been out of dry powder since my last big purchase at $0.39/share. While I agree with the premise that part of the problem is that we have bottom feeders who hold down the price. The other problem is we still have sellers who will come down to that price. I think most of us who do still have dry powder would be happy to pay more if the price was moving up. But that's not going to happen until you get the sellers to stop selling at these ridiculously low prices.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Maya
    Girls like a guy with confidence. Stick with the first one!

     

    Yo soy muy caliente." Translation is: "I am very hot." As in, I think I'm a hot looking guy.

     

    :-))
    25 Nov 2012, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Maya, My read from Eliott is that it's only been a four wave.

     

    http://bit.ly/10YSQvm

     

    Oops, Only four phalanges. Never mind.
    26 Nov 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Can someone please explain what/who epower is? And how big is this market? It seems like Rosewater issued some PR on epower but nothing yet from Axion, correct?
    23 Nov 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    Fancy:
    Follow the link to the Rosewater PR at the top of the header of this instablog. In that article is a link to ePower's web site.

     

    Also, the prior concentrator contains some discussion of ePower in the comments.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • briancav
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Found it... Thanks
    23 Nov 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    Anyone familiar with this battery tech?

     

    "Led by Sri Narayan, professor of chemistry at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, the team developed an air-breathing battery that uses the chemical energy generated by the oxidation of iron plates that are exposed to the oxygen in the air -- a process similar to rusting.

     

    "Iron is cheap and air is free," Narayan said. "It's the future."

     

    http://bit.ly/10lveSt
    23 Nov 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There are a number of metal-air chemistries that are potentially interesting for energy storage including zinc air, which is apparently the most advanced, and aluminum-air which has the highest theoretical energy density. The zinc-air guys are claiming great progress, although many who know the technology far better than I remain skeptical.

     

    These metal air technologies, if successful, will apparently be most useful in storing massive amounts of energy with multi-hour discharge profiles. About the only thing we know for sure is that the development timeline will be 10 to 15 years unless a show-stopper arises.
    23 Nov 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    JRP3: Looks promising. I guess they now have the 10-15 years or longer slog ahead to get to commercialization and will face the same sort of concurrent developing competition as other new batteries have faced.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I had a chance to talk to Andy Claypole of ePower Engine Systems this afternoon and he was kind enough to share a couple of files with me and you.

     

    The first is a rough road test video with their series electric hybrid tractor pulling a flatbed loaded with concrete blocks to a GVW of 80,000 pounds. – http://bit.ly/Y9OAdE

     

    The second is a brief technology overview that explains what they're trying to accomplish. – http://bit.ly/10GRIMO

     

    Andy confirmed to me that their target price on a retrofit is $70,000 and their target market is the 1.1 million Class 8 tractors in the US fleet that are between 6 and 11 years old. Newer tractors are typically still under warranty while older tractors may not have enough life left to justify the cost of the retrofit.

     

    I plan to go through some of the other materials on my hard drive this weekend and will ask Andy for permission to share the things that seem most informative.
    23 Nov 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    Thank you John! Additional information that may help move things along.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    I'm not very familiar with the trucking market, but in your recent article you said that the 'primary target-market for APU battery systems is the 650,000 heavy-duty trucks that haul the nation's freight'. In your post above you have 1.1 million trucks at least 6 years old. Are they different types of trucks (and thus different markets), or is the potential market for the APU battery systems considerably larger than 650 K trucks?
    23 Nov 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Class 8 trucks with GVWs of 33,000 to 150,000 pounds used for both local and long distance transportation. Local drivers are subject to an entirely different set of rules than long-haul freight drivers and vehicles that work local routes don't spend anywhere near as much time idling.

     

    The primary market for APUs is the 650,000 trucks that haul the nation's long-distance freight. I'll try to remember to be more specific in the future.
    23 Nov 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, JP. The overview is helpful and the video fascinating. That 80K pounds seemed to move effortlessly.
    23 Nov 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1725) | Send Message
     
    Thank you. A holiday surprise!
    23 Nov 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1725) | Send Message
     
    Very sweet.

     

    Suggested marketing graphic: A video shows the e-Power truck going up a steep hill in traffic alongside a truck with a regular diesel set-up. The e-power truck keeps up, maybe pulls a little ahead, unless it can pull a lot ahead. This is overlaid on a map of a highway showing the distance the two trucks are going to haul, say 400 miles. Then show the trucks at a station filling up with diesel and a split screen showing how much less the e-Power truck costs to go the same distance. Then, show how far the e-Power truck could have gone had it used the same amount of $$ as the pure diesel truck.
    23 Nov 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Thanks for the information. The video was posted by someone else a few days ago, when epower originally came into play, but the technology overview makes it easier to understand what they are trying to accomplish.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There were a couple YouTube videos posted a few days back with a box trailer that immediately gave rise to suspicions that the box was empty. Andy told me they did this one special for customers who wanted to see the load instead of assuming a load. Since I got it directly to the CEO who told me that it wasn't widely available, I'm pretty sure folks haven't seen it before.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    JP: "... pretty sure folks haven't seen it before".

     

    To my best recollection, that one hadn't been posted here before.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Nov 2012, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    John,
    You are right, I stand corrected. The original video did have the e-power trailer, not the load showing in the back. Sorry, I saw the same road for both videos and didn't pay attention to the fact that the load had changed.
    24 Nov 2012, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I've been searching for Rosewater's press release regarding ePower and can't find that it has been picked up by any media outlets. Guess Axion will have to also make an announcement when the time is right.

     

    If "our" truck is on the road, I hope the driver didn't take off Thanksgiving. Probably shouldn't count on having Christmas or New Year's off either - let's put some asphalt under this baby.
    23 Nov 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Meinolf Heptner
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Dear Mr. Petersen,

     

    I am very surprised about the sheer volume of information and discussion about Axion.

     

    I also think that many Posters deliver not much more than hollow words instead of real arguments. Especially liked your explanation regarding missing insider buying.

     

    One question remains for me though:
    If Axion's story is so clearly undervalued, but the share obviously is anything BUT underfollowed, why does nobody try to take over the company?

     

    Do they want to do it off-exchange?

     

    Best
    R-BgO
    23 Nov 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't describe Axion as well followed. The people who read my blog and post on these concentrators are very patient types who paid close attention for a long time and did huge amount of homework. All of them played a smart game of pulling the price down over time to maximize their upside potential.

     

    The problem with a bottom feeder dynamic is that there is no bid fairy and unless somebody who follows the stock is willing to move the price up, the price will languish.

     

    The kind of accumulation we've seen in Axion over the last couple years is amazing, and normally the province of professionals. The big difference is that professionals have communication back-channels that do a good job of letting holders know when it's time to shift from a bottom feeding posture to something more aggressive.
    23 Nov 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Well, evidently we just had a middle-feeder place a buy order for 50k at 26 cents near the end of the day. Ended with 32k unfilled.

     

    Maybe just ATDF (the bidder for that chunk, and the $.xx99 seller yet again today) playing games, but maybe not.
    23 Nov 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    The rule with Axion has seemed to be, "Jam tomorrow and jam yesterday, but never jam today." What we need is an investment psychology that "this stock is getting away from me, so I better buy now before I've missed out on the huge potential here." I doubt that psychology can develop in the absence of break-out news. We've had a lot of very promising news dribbling out on a steady basis, to the point where we no longer expect the stock to react to such news. What is needed now is at least one announcement that translates into an assured prospect of powerful revenue growth for the foreseeable future. When it comes to Axion, it seems that all investors are from Missouri!
    23 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    That psychology could develop in an instant if we didn't have everybody holding back and trying to save that last penny on the last share. There are at least a half-dozen watchers for every owner.

     

    It's one thing to be a skeptic and another entirely to see accomplishment after accomplishment after accomplishment and say "well you've shown me a ton but I'm still not satisfied."
    23 Nov 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "What we need is an investment psychology that 'this stock is getting away from me, so I better buy now before I've missed out on the huge potential here.' I doubt that psychology can develop in the absence of break-out news."

     

    November 6, NSC released its 2012 Sustainability report disclosing explicit plans to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in 2013 in part by use of PbC energized yard switcher and OTR locomotives. At last report the NS999 had been moved inside NSC's Altoona shops. Axion management and Rosewater have laid down a firm marker re-UL 1741 certification in early December and reportedly have received strong expressions of interest in HUB units once UL certified. Axion reported shipment of PbC batteries to ePower Engine Systems before mid-November, announcing expectations for one of that firm's Class 8 truck tractors to begin commercial service in very near future. Axion reports submission of many proposals, and nearing completion of multiple new proposals to large utilities, in response to RFPs involving PowerCubes. Axion has allocated scarce capital to carbon electrode inventory accumulation for several months.

     

    If one thinks there is any real prospect of Rosewater announcing order of 25 - 30 HUBs within a week or two of UL cert, one or PowerCube sales, or ePower Engine Systems announcement of one or more truck conversions, then time remaining to climb aboard the bull in the chute is looking more and more scarce.
    23 Nov 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Axion is assuredly now a "when, not if" story... with at least a dozen major entities of substance deeply involved in evaluation and incorporation of the PbC, some at great expense to themselves and some for years now, if there was nothing to the PbC, if it had some major flaw or was essentially bunkum, I think we'd know it by now. It is a new class of device though. Its optimum applications sort of have had to evolve around it. And as we know that has been an AGONIZINGLY slow process. But that process has never stopped. And I highly doubt it will. On the contrary it has only gained momentum. Therefore, it's "when" not "if" for Axion.

     

    Just like a flower bud, for the longest time there sure may not be much to look at, but when the time finally arrives, there's plenty.
    23 Nov 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    JP
    I don't think most Axionistas are bottom feeders any more and try to save that last penny. I think we are kind of full and hate to over commit too much of our holdings to one stock when the next round of finance or end of the year tax loss sale may bring the price lower. If that happens, I think some of us with dry powers will take our final meal.

     

    Like you said, they are a lot of lurkers and Axionistas who are waiting for the big order. When that happens, I think your inflection point will come.
    23 Nov 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    My sense is very different from yours, and I'll give even odds that I know the group better than most.

     

    More importantly, I understand that acting, or more properly not acting, because of fear is a perfect way to guarantee a bad outcome.

     

    Axionistas who have paid attention have seen nothing but one victory after another. The problem is that each victory is treated as a reason to raise the expectations bar.
    23 Nov 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Let these events occur and buyers will be falling all over themselves to get on board.

     

    The trick is for this news to precede Axion's need to do a raise.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Has TG made an effort to identify funds that are able to invest in "penny stocks" to make sure they have background materials on Axion and continuing exposure to corporate news? Surely there must be some funds out there who would find the reward-risk ratio of AXPW to be irresistible.
    23 Nov 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    In my career I've seen exactly one fund that could buy penny stock in the open market. I've seen a number that could and would participate in direct deals, but every single one of them's been a vulture.
    23 Nov 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Alpha---if you broaden "funds" to "investment pools" (e.g., hedge funds, wealthy family accounts, etc.), there is plenty of money looking for huge returns. But the new energy sector (solar manufacturers, new battery technology companies, etc.) sucks at the moment, as does the overall huge-risk taking environment best I can tell.

     

    Those things tend to run in cycles, so another long-term positive for AXPW investors (besides the company fundamentals) is that I expect the sector's current "rationalization" to give way to awareness and support of the winners/survivors. Exactly when that happens, no one knows, but one sign will be articles saying the sun is once again rising on the sector and investors can come out of hiding.

     

    And look out above if high-risk taking in general blossoms again.

     

    But for now, a buying opportunity on both counts, IMO. Buy out-of-favor, sell in-favor.
    25 Nov 2012, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    One further thought on this subject, John. I agree it's frustrating as hell to see an accumulation of accomplishments that have put Axion in the sweet spot with major prospective purchasers but have not been translated into stock gains. I guess the key is seeing "prospective" or "actual" buyers as opposed to "potential" buyers in a market that is not especially conducive to the flow of speculative juices.

     

    I routinely receive e-mail and snail-mail promotions of speculative penny stocks from promoters who invariably have sweetheart deals with the company they are promoting. In monitoring some of these, I've seen the promoted stocks respond with gains as big as several hundred percent (almost always to be given back in time as fundamental developments failed to live up to the hype). With AXPW, I'm confident that fundamentals would support any gains derived from "hype."

     

    There must be lists of penny-stock speculators who would love to hear the Axion story and the compelling reward-risk ratio of AXPW. Might be worth exploring as the potential rewards in a financing effort could be huge.
    23 Nov 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    I note that the APH followers dropped to 167 a few days ago but has now climbed to 169.

     

    I tried to by 12K shares early at $0.25 but after awhile thought that I might be able to buy lower and so dropped to $0.241 where it sat until the close. I could have had the 12k but for wanting to save $108 I will have to wait for another chance which may not come.

     

    Silly boy! I do not know why I fret over such tiny amounts when in my heart and head I believe that AXPW will be worth several times its current price within the next 12 months and many times that within the subsequent 2 to 3 years.
    23 Nov 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    One thing too to remember is that the world has changed dramatically in the macro environment. If this was say 2006 instead of 2012 there would be beaucoup money, retail money falling all over itself to get in on such an opportunity... the days of endless home equity loans..nowadays so many people have been burned and so many are either broke, strapped, or have totally given up, such that it's much more an uphill battle to generate buying enthusiasm... it's not so much blood running in the streets as it is blood drying on the asphalt... rougher going and tougher to get traction no matter how good the story...
    23 Nov 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    Think of all the technology stocks that actually make money and even, gasp, pay a dividend. Many are down 20+ percent in the last few months. Is it any wonder that a tiny, money losing stock like Axion is having a rough time getting a higher stock price?

     

    But the Axion PbC tech is valuable, so just wait it out.
    26 Nov 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    86,
    Does that mean were watching blood dry instead of red paint?
    26 Nov 2012, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    With SA picking up JP's latest article on Axion, even though it sells for less than $1, and making it a front page "top news" item, I strongly suspect the number of AXPW stockholders has increased in the past week. It will do so at an accelerating rate on certification of UL 1741 standard for the HUB or Axion announcement of a PowerCube sale or two.
    23 Nov 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    I was in AB's shoes today when I had buy orders in at $.25 and $.255. Neither was filled.

     

    I think JP is right about our psychology. Almost by definition every Axionista has bought the stock thinking it was near a bottom, only to see it go down further. In fact, I'd bet that many have had that experience a half-dozen times. With the financing in front of us still, and zero to minimal market response to recent good news (the earnings report and to a lesser extent the Rosewater press release), people have got to be wondering what is going on. Thus, I can understand the hesitation.

     

    Still, I think that's a little bit of a momentum thing that I've seen in other out of favor stocks. That is, even when the good news comes, people somehow can't process it for what it is and either focus on the part of the glass that is still empty or somehow dismiss it as a transient factor. This can also happen after a second such piece of good news. I'll go further and say this self-delusion can happen after much more tangible pieces of good news than what we've had from Axion in recent weeks such as actual orders.

     

    I'm thinking that our great familiarity with Axion will prevent the most extreme version of this syndrome from taking place with Axion (market disregarding tangible great news). Axion is out of favor, but I can't say it is ignored to the same extent as other out of favor stocks in which I've invested.

     

    Putting all that aside, one thing we all know for sure is that Mr. Market is going to find some way to surprise us and the vast majority of the bottom feeder dry powder isn't going to find the bottom and possibly won't even come close because most of us Axionistas are going to have a hard time buying after an uptick and are going to wait for the pull-back that doesn't come.

     

    I know that would be my psychology so next week, I'm going be a little more aggressive than I normally be.
    23 Nov 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    Each of the past three days trading days I've made offers that did not execute. And the second and third days in the series the offer was a bit higher than the day before. Todays bid was $.252 for 10K AON.

     

    At this point, absent calamitous macro political-economic developments, I don't look for the share price to pull back as much as $.01 except for possible MM 100 - 400 share game transactions. :-) But then I also expected much higher Q3 revenues than were realized.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps we should take a poll by email again, and tally up the number of shares Axionistas are willing to buy in December. Then, put the responses (identity withheld) into a Google spreadsheet for all to see. When someone buys, post the transaction with time and number of shares, matching their pledge made by email.

     

    If response is strong enough, this would give a lot of confidence for Axionistas to buy more shares. This would be a self-fulfilling prophecy for the stock to move up for once.

     

    I think just by buying 10% of our current holdings (3-4m shares) we can send AXPW into 40c range by January. We'd make money on the rest of our shares no matter what, considering how overweight we are.
    23 Nov 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    I think that all we need to do is ask the sellers to STOP selling!
    23 Nov 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Actual, solid sales would change everything.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    It will be interesting and rewarding run if all Axionistas decide not to be bottom feeders and do the following when the Epower news and any future good news are announced: ( It will also be nice if some insiders buy the stock in the open market after the news. This way, it does not look like illegal inside trading.)
    1. Buy some shares at the asking price and put them in our sock drawers.
    2. Do not use these shares as your trading shares.
    Since we believe there is no big sellers out there, the Axionistas fire power should out gun the small retail sellers. This will move the asking price up. The fence sitters will jump in because their fear of missing this moving train will kick in. When the stock price go up, the year end tax loss sellers will be gone. In addition, the next stock finance price will also be higher.
    Therefore, we should all stop being bottom feeders and say we are Axionistas and not bottom feeders. I hereby pledge I will not be a bottom feeder and I will be a fearless Axionistas again.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Expectations of solid sales would change everything.

     

    Our problem is that the collective expectations of Axion stockholders are more negative than positive. We've had our noses whacked so often by a rolled up newspaper that we cringe at every thump on the front porch that might be a paperboy even though our subscription to "The Daily Dumpster" has expired.

     

    As the price moves up, and I'm convinced it will move up, the risk of the next financing will subside and positive expectations will begin to replace negative ones. – http://bit.ly/Uzt3EI
    24 Nov 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    I must say, I am not impressed by the idea that Axionistas should buy more to stop the bleeding. Try explaining that to somebody that is not as financially, emotionally, or intellectually invested and they look at you like your crazy. We are all individual actors and each must act in his or her own best interest.

     

    Interesting Times may have an axe to grind, but he is right about one thing, Axion has been a terrible investment for quite awhile.

     

    That being said, I am opportunistically interested in acquiring more.

     

    Otherwise, headed to the Florida v. Florida State game tomorrow.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Axionistas don't need to buy more. They just need to recognize that conditions have changed and the strategy of trying to shave a couple tenths of a cent that worked well in the past will not work well in the future.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    JP; "They just need to recognize that conditions have changed and the strategy of trying to shave a couple tenths of a cent that worked well in the past will not work well in the future".

     

    Supported, anecdotally, by the posts above about the unfilled orders. Few data points, but may be early indications. It wasn't very long ago that many of these would've "hit".

     

    If my experimental inflection point calculations have any value - as yet unknown - there has been a shift in market behavior as compared to when I started tracking. Look at where the various period calculations were very early on, and what they were doing through, say, mid August, and where they are now and what they are doing.

     

    Through mid-August seems to reflect both the big sellers being in and Axionistas taking advantage of lower prices. Generally I think since that time they reflect the big seller exhaustion as well as Axionista exhaustion (but at a slower pace).

     

    In a nut shell, the supply and demand imbalance you've referenced so many times has dissipated, AFAICT. Other metrics I've been trying on for size seem to support that too.

     

    I believe the configuration of those inflection point calculations now reflect a much more balanced market with, apparently, Axionistas' & others' willingness or ability to buy being better matched to the (now apparently) reduced supply.

     

    If this is correct, it dictates a different strategy, as you've suggested.

     

    This is, IMO, on the verge of reflecting the classic "coiled spring" set up. Now it's just time and catalysts.

     

    I think those who suggest strategies that artificially move the price are thinking very short-term and wrongly.

     

    I think you, John, have it exactly right - the number of positive catalysts pending are such that just plain old law of averages says one or more are going to come to fruition. Since the number who are waiting on the fence is guesstimated to be many times larger than the number of current holders, and since the old adage "the market moves in the way to hurt the greatest number of people" may have some veracity, we have the perfect set up.

     

    Add in some percentage of current holders that are "strong hands".

     

    - The catalyst will come,
    - Some (relatively few?) will jump on early,
    - Many times more will wait (much too long?) for confirmation,
    - They will pile on,
    - Price will overshoot,
    - A substantial portion of the "in early" crowd will start raking profits,
    - Many late-comers will have to make (ill-informed in many cases?) decisions,
    - Volatility will likely look much like the prior run to the $1+ area.

     

    I'll stop there on my prognostication, other than adding I won't get my grind up. This adds additional "upside risk" to those who are waiting. I placed my risk on the downside, wisely or not.

     

    When we get that overshoot, I'll have no compunction about taking profit. We shared what we could with 'em. They chose their path. We chose ours. I will be riding "house" money at some point and then making small plays again as conditions warrant.

     

    MHO
    HardToLove
    24 Nov 2012, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The big challenge will be identifying the overshoot when it arrives.

     

    FWIW, I've always believed that every stock develops a "fair value" trend-line over time, but the price only hits the trend-line when making a transition from undervalued to overvalued and vice versa.

     

    From what I've seen, price charts exhibit a wave pattern where the duration and amplitude of an undervaluation are repeated in the next overvaluation.

     

    If you assume a flatline fair value that uses the early 2010 average of $1.15 as a start point, it would suggest an overvaluation plateau in the $1.90 range that would stabilize for a year or two. If you give the trend-line an upward slope to reflect 2-1/2 years of accomplishments, the plateau could be much higher.

     

    Estimating what Axion's market capitalization should be is the work of financial wizards, but even simple guidelines like 10x cumulative R&D, which is not unreasonable in an industry where 90% to 95% of R&D fails, suggest that 10x to 20x the current market cap isn't out of the realm of reason. I won't try to peg a number that I think market cap could be, but there's a lot of room to run before I could persuasively argue the number was excessive.
    24 Nov 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I drew the trend line on this chart in June, 2012:

     

    http://bit.ly/U4sjZz

     

    The trend that AXPW price was following then appears not to have been broken yet.
    24 Nov 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The "fair value trend-line" I discussed is completely unrelated to the "market price trend line" you drew. In fact, it's discrepancies between the two that set up the opportunities.

     

    The December 2009 private placement was a defining moment in Axion's history because a diversified group of investors bought 45 million shares (over half of the company) for a cash price of $.57 per share. Since the stock only traded 7 million shares a year when the placement closed, no thoughtful investor could have believed that the buyers had a reasonable prospect of short-term liquidity.

     

    In 30 years of practice it's been my experience that investors who buy large blocks of restricted stock with no reasonable prospect of liquidity are willing to pay about 50% of what they believe the stabilized market price for small liquid blocks should be.

     

    If the 2009 investors were careful and smart, the fair value trend line should have started from a base of $1.15 per share and increased as testing and validation proved the usefulness of the PbC.

     

    Every substantive technical event since early 2010 has been a stunning success. Axion has gone from one tenuous relationship with with a small-cap battery manufacturer (Exide) to several strong relationships with mega-cap manufacturers like BMW, NS, GM and others. I can't put a numerical value on those relationships and the testing successes, but I believe they were additive and that the fair value has increased from $1.15 per share.

     

    The market price has been 180 degrees out of synch with the business realities for a long time. The only cause I can see for the disconnect is a grievous supply and demand imbalance that created the price trend line you drew.

     

    Everything I can see tells me the supply and demand imbalance is now history. That means the price trend line should break and shift from undervalued to overvalued at some point in the immediate future. I believe that fear inspired by three-years of unrelenting selling is the only thing standing in the way.
    25 Nov 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't agree more.

     

    I'm not sure if you agree that news can catalyze that break in the price trend line, but I feel fairly strongly that it could.

     

    Even UL approval in December followed by a respectable number of Rosewater sales, I think, could do it, in part because bottom feeders would probably capitulate at that point and start buying to round out their holdings, which in turn might set the pre-raise momo you've been advocating in motion.
    25 Nov 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've had two prior experiences with clients that fought their way through serious but much smaller supply and demand imbalances. In both cases an inflection point arrived where something changed that wasn't obvious. There were no big announcements for either company, although the first one began with a reverse split to facilitate a migration from a disfavored exchange (VSE) to a favored exchange (Nasdaq).

     

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2
    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl

     

    In both cases I found myself looking in the rearview mirror and asking "what the heck happened?" When I started getting feelings of deja vu all over again in the summer of 2010, I decided to study Axion as the process unfolded. I was shocked when one big holder after another capitulated and joined the selling party because I knew they were cutting their own throats in doing so, but it's been a heck of an education so far.

     

    I'm not clear what will be required to instigate an abrupt shift in the market dynamic. For that matter I'm not sure whether anything will be required. I am confident, however, that a shift is coming. I just don't know when.
    25 Nov 2012, 03:05 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I know that I for one am waiting for the coming raise to complete and reevaluate from there. Surely anyone who is studying Axion who knows how to read a 10-Q is in all likelihood waiting to see how the raise pans out, too.

     

    "When is the next raise coming?" might be one of the most commonly asked question by any potential investor about any stock.

     

    We are between a rock and a hard place right now, but being an optimist at heart I trust TG to get us a reasonable deal. We certainly are not going to go BK with all of the potential catalysts coming in the next year or so.
    25 Nov 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "Surely anyone who is studying Axion who knows how to read a 10-Q is in all likelihood waiting to see how the raise pans out, too. "

     

    :-) Some of us think otherwise. To me, your expressed perspective tends to reinforce my perception that the coming capital raise is already reflected in AXPW share price.

     

    Three weeks before the last financial performance results were released, I planned exiting my AXPW position altogether if Q3 revenues fell below my expectation of $3 million or more. NSC's discussion of PbC plans going forward in its 2012 Sustainability report, TG announcement of PbC sales for OTR hybrid truck application and report of a definitive 3rd party electrical testing lab to complete UL testing in early December and announcement of December delivery to APU to large truck OEM(s) changed that decision.
    25 Nov 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    That's an interesting perspective, D-inv.

     

    I personally have no intention to sell AXPW for at least 2 years, maybe even 3, as my belief is that if we get a piece of SS, we could be looking at millions of PbC electrodes per year and a correspondingly handsome pps.

     

    Shorter term catalysts will certainly help the stock, but at this stage I can't see myself selling on locomotive, cube, HUB, or truck sales, none of which I have reason to expect will not come through for us in due time.
    25 Nov 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "I personally have no intention to sell AXPW for at least 2 years, maybe even 3, as my belief is that if we get a piece of SS, we could be looking at millions of PbC electrodes per year and a correspondingly handsome pps."

     

    With the NSC confirmation of intentions re-PbC, PowerCube PJM performance ratings in the 90+ percentile range, HUB UL certification eminent, and trucking application sales underway I have no expectation of selling any AXPW for less than 5x my latest purchase price.

     

    OTOH, I no longer regard auto S/S applications as eminent or even likely within the next two years unless the Class 8 trucking hybrid and APU PbC applications grow like wildfire in a gale.

     

    Would be happy to be proven wrong on the auto S/S.
    25 Nov 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your assessment of the value of NSC, etc. successes.

     

    One factor to consider is that once we hit 2.00, which I assume is 5X your average entry (as it is mine), we will uplist to NASDAQ or AMEX.

     

    Other stocks I have owned, like NAVB for example, took off when they got off the OTC's. IMO, hitting 2.00 inevitably leads to hitting 3.00. But like I said, I think that longer term AXPW is going to do much better than 2 or 3 dollars, and I have time to wait.
    25 Nov 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    I think it is great to discuss the market dynamic, but I don't think we should be pledging on this board to change our behavior or the like. Sort of like spitting into the wind.
    24 Nov 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The last thing I'd expect or want is for anybody to pledge anything. The reason I raised the dynamic as an issue is that it's a subtle factor that's ultimately not in our individual or collective best interest because anything that holds the price down over the next couple months will increase the number of shares Axion has to sell in Q1.

     

    In general, new investors lack confidence in price movements that happen in close proximity to the closing date. We saw that problem at work in the the February 1st offering. Price movements that are 60 or 90 days removed from the closing date and seem to be stable or building sustained momentum, on the other hand, increase new investor confidence. I'm still hoping for a strategic investor that won't be focus heavily on liquidity issues, but I'd like to see a strong picture in place if TG has to go with financial investors as Plan B.
    24 Nov 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "In general, new investors lack confidence in price movements that happen in close proximity to the closing date."

     

    Last year AXPW began December trading with a close at $.40 share and ended the month at $.265. Given the known catalysts in play the trend this year will IMO start at a higher level than the 2011 close, be steeper and of positive slope.

     

    Disclosure of actual PbC sales to a truck tractor OEM has IMO not be digested by the market to date. Rosewater's PR on the application was okay, but I expect formal announcement by the truck OEM of its product to carry much greater weight with investors and financial reporting media, particularly if occasion for the PR/event is delivery of a hybrid truck tractor to a customer.
    24 Nov 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The information isn't really in the market yet. While Tom mentioned the truck projects on the conference call, there has been no formal announcement. We've cobbled bits and pieces together, but we probably have some details wrong and we have no idea, for example, how big the APU test might be.

     

    My outlook may be cynical, but I'd bet that no more than 5% of Axion's stockholders follow the Concentrators, the percentage who make the time for conference calls is even smaller and the percentage who read SEC reports is miniscule.

     

    You guys are thought leaders and information junkies by nature. Most investors aren't willing to work that hard.
    24 Nov 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning:
    In my opinion: There will come a time when the fundamentals of AXION POWER PbC Tech. are superior to what speculators and pessimistic people are thinking, after that the price of the stock will rise without a doubt. I also believe that every day that passes that point is very close.

     

    Right now my only concern is to take advantage of the low price and buy more to average my price down and that's what I'm doing without any fear.

     

    Have a nice week end-Carlos
    24 Nov 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    11/23/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 120, MaxTrSz: 52100, Vol 181320, AvTrSz: 5495
    Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2555
    # Buys, Shares: 23 81920, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2597
    # Sells, Shares: 10 99400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2520
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.21 (45.2% “Buys”), DlyShts 8920 (4.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.97%

     

    Half-day of trading, to me, says don't read much into anything.

     

    Average trade size moved up above the 10-day average, which was nice to see. Buy:sell is back to just below normal around the 50% range, continuing the improvement started since 11/8. VWAP did a teeny push up, following what the inflection point calculations have continued to suggest (if we can believe them). And the daily short sales did what we've seen so many times after a large spike up – plummeted to an absurdly low percentage. The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff continues to suggest, if I'm interpreting it right, no big sellers as the November average is still trending down, now at 46.44%.

     

    “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Nov 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure if anyone else can read this file:

     

    http://bit.ly/Tc9cvG

     

    but it's the global stats for things including the retweeting of a shortened link (using http://www.bit.ly) to John's latest article on Axion.

     

    It shows 8 tweets, including Seeking Alpha, of a very diverse set of "tweeters."

     

    Other shortening services could have been used as well, and course some folks tweet so much as to place the odds of any one tweet being followed as pretty low ...

     

    On the other hand, if you find twitter useful, you may find someone else you want to follow.
    24 Nov 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (989) | Send Message
     
    wtb

     

    Good post...not a fan of another poll or buying another 10% across the board...but we can tweet it...just did.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
     
    buyers have been in control imo since Oct. if you bid, then lower your bid as it gets closer to filling - you don't believe it...

     

    if 1/4th of the shares are in our hands i'd expect us top be more interested in moving up. adding 10% to your position is another 2.5% for all axionistas. where are those shares gonna come from at these volumes?
    24 Nov 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, at a daily volume of under 400k, Axionistas adding another 3-4 million shares would easily push this to 40c. Recall, when Sandy hit and the large seller abated for one day, we hit 30c in a single low volume Friday.
    24 Nov 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the ePower news moves the stock this month. Most (non-trucker?) people/potential new Axion stockholders have never heard of them.

     

    I have no idea how well capitalized they are to do anything "big" "quickly." Most folks will probably assume they aren't and can't.

     

    Hopefully they can, but it's "show me" time. The question is how long it stays "show me/test me" time other than for a few early adopters. Certainly not fast enough to really help our relatively imminent need for financing. I don't think the greatest Axion PR ever could change that for now.

     

    I typed ePower into Google and got tons of stuff not related ... you have to type ePower Engine to get something useful on the front page. Too bad they don't have a more unique name or trademark.

     

    They do have a patent application though :-)
    http://bit.ly/10wTroK

     

    I wish them (and us) well, but as we well know, having a great technology is only a very small part of the battle.

     

    Just trying to be realistic.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1371) | Send Message
     
    WTB, I appreciate your contributions to this board. I am hopeful about ePower but they still have a LOT to prove. And certainly the market knows nothing of them.

     

    But the thing is, we know what this battery can do. And its exciting if more folks are about to find out.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I don't know whether you've noticed but nothing big is ever quick.

     

    ePower is, like all small companies that are still developing their technology, modestly capitalized. They have several fleet owners who collectively want to buy 200 trucks, but with a battery content of $10,000 to $20,000 per truck, it won't be a company maker for Axion any time soon.

     

    Mercifully nano-cap companies that are just emerging from the R&D stage are not valued on the basis of existing sales or profits, Instead, they're valued on the basis of expectations. So the combined impact of the ePower project and the APU project could in fact be substantial.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "So the combined impact of the ePower project and the APU project could in fact be substantial."

     

    :-) wt's caution is understandable, but the hybrid truck tractor is important in several respects apart from the current market presence of the OEM. First, I have seen nothing to suggest the OEM is financed in any respect with government funding or that the OEM's purchase of PbCs is based on anything other than technical performance of the battery and commercial market considerations. Second, Rosewater's PR noted prior difficulties of the OEM in its efforts to use LABs in which case sale now to an OEM client of conversion-to-hybrid with PbCs would signal PbC superiority in a mobile application. The rising WoW constructed on continuing BMW and NSC delay in moving beyond testing could well peak and shrink a bit. Follow that with delivery of some APU units and NSC actually taking delivery on the batteries ordered in April and the WoW could start to crumble quickly.
    24 Nov 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    200 trucks that I hope would all choose the PbC.
    24 Nov 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    JP, re: "They have several fleet owners who collectively want to buy 200 trucks"--thanks for disclosing that info. The 3/2011 article that I posted did not mention the end-demand source of the order, only that it was from an investment bank called "Corporate Ventures".

     

    More importantly, will ePower mention something like this in their upcoming hybrid truck news? ePower may have both the ability and desire to disclose a lot more than we're used to, compared to Axion's typical prospect like BMW and NS, as well as NDA-shackled Axion itself. I'd love to hear SOMETHING about end-user demand, like what you just posted. The more detail the better, assuming it's good of course. I'm not holding my breath, but a mention of 200 interested customers or 100 or whatever number, who love the truck but have just been waiting for a good battery solution, even if disclaimed up down & sideways, could amplify the release's value to us.

     

    Same for the upcoming HUB announcement UL listing. If true, Rosewater could say there is great demand, deliveries and installs will start immediately, etc.

     

    Investors will pay up if they have a better idea of end-user demand.
    24 Nov 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "adding 10% to your position is another 2.5% for all axionistas. where are those shares gonna come from at these volumes? "

     

    In all likelihood there are several readers of the board who bought only recently and will jump at the chance for 100% - 200% return on investment as the share price rises on positive sales news. Once sp rises above $.85 another possibility comes into play and that is QT exercising its warrants for 11,896,070 shares. Exercise of those warrants would provide Axion additional capital of ~$8.5 million, more than enough to carry the company into its expected CF positive timeframe.
    24 Nov 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    If only the price gets that high before the warrants expire and that they have the necessary cash and that its in their best interest to do the transaction.

     

    I had hoped for being able to buy more at $0.20 but that I suspect was pure hopium talking. I have been over the last several trading days pushing up my bid as cash and opportunity have allowed. Friday I tried harder but greed got in the way. On Monday I will raise my bid to $0.25 or higher. I think that it is unlikely for the stock to ever trade at these levels again. But what do I know? I'm just a retired construction worker who has read every single post and article I can lay my hands on for well over the last 18 months.
    AXPW is 90+% of my high speculation portfolio and I am happy to be in that position. I'm strapped in and ready for the ride to begin!
    24 Nov 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I would like to see Quercus get some of those warrants, not to mention seeing price above .70 cents. At least we would know the nature of the beast - if they would be so kind as to repeat their past selling behavior - and it would be money in the Axion coffers.
    24 Nov 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    As JP has suggested on occasion, QT is likely to exercise its warrants in conjunction with a public offering priced above the warrant exercise price. Both Axion and QT walk away with money in the pocket in such a situation. And, I believe QT's warrants expire at different times with the first expiration in March? 2013 and the last in June? (Need to check those expiration dates.)
    24 Nov 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Funny car repair short short:

     

    http://binged.it/WpoJcn
    24 Nov 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Among the major things holding back the price of AXPW shares is the issue of funding the cash flow "cliff" AXPW is expected to face in Q1 of 2013.

     

    Also subliminally perhaps the thought of further financing(s) to fund commercial expansion of the business by subsequent rounds of financing

     

    One of the optimal ways to exploit technology is to license it

     

    One develops a techology thru the innovation cycle. The further one takes the tech, production, perhaps a major customer, or several, themore valuable the license potential becomes, The ideal is proven productive ramp and a potential commercial relationship(s) at the ready

     

    This is gold to a company with the cash and existing productive capacity to produce and sell the customer

     

    The license agreement can include any number of payouts including - up front payments - a percentage of sales or net profit, etc. The owner of the tech de-risks commercialization as they do not have to fund the expansion of the business and ramping up of productive capacity. Cash rolls in rather than out

     

    The further one takes developments the better the license deal they can strike as they also de-risk the potential to the licensee

     

    AXPW were provided with government assistance of various kinds to fund the plant at New Castle PA. It strikes me that AXPW may be contractually committed to the governments who funded the plant at New Castle. AXPW may have committed to fill the plant to its productive capacity before doing any licensing. This creates the jobs that Governments want. Good for them on all levels

     

    When I look at the AXPW story I can not help but wonder if their grow out strategy is and has been

     

    1. Develop market applications
    2. fill the productive capacity of the plant (truck, home, rail)
    3. This then proves productive ramp up and makes any license all the more valuable

     

    As the productive capacity runs to the limits of the New Castle plant's capacity...license the balance of the applications for upfront capital and a stream of license royalties

     

    This is certainly the business model I would be proceeding to execute to monetize the AXPW technology given the multitude of applications now in the pipeline and being added to on a regular basis

     

    Does anyone agree that this might be what AXPW management are pursuing

     

    It seems to fit with what we have heard in quarterly presentations

     

    It would mean significant cash flow will be won by the company within the year with limited and perhaps no further financial tranches taken on

     

    If management are not pursuing this business model then I think we Axionistas should make a point of raising the possibilities in the next conference call - or perhaps sooner if there is a way to do so

     

    John and other Axionistas what do you think
    24 Nov 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "AXPW were provided with government assistance of various kinds to fund the plant at New Castle PA."

     

    I'm not aware of any factual merit to that argument.

     

    Axion has stated repeatedly that it anticipates production of carbon electrodes at its New Castle facilities for sale to other battery manufacturers. The electrodes are engineered pretty much for drop in replacement of lead electrodes now used by large established manufacturers in production of AGM/VRLA batteries.

     

    Mr. Petersen has suggested on numerous occasions that he believes Axion will JV with manufacturers who want electrode production nearby but will retain control of certain manufacturing aspects.

     

    Are you per chance an East Penn, Exide or JCI employee?
    24 Nov 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Axion has received some small loans and grants over the years, but the cumulative impact is little more than a blip on the balance sheet. The strategy is, and has always been, to prove the utility and value of the PbC technology; fill the production capacity of the New Castle plant; continue commercialization by becoming a component supplier to the lead-acid battery industry; and then license the technology to others once it's value was crystal clear.

     

    For a new kid on the block I'd say that dimca has a good handle on where the business stands. The big psychological problem Axion faces right now is fear. The last 2-1/2 years have been a miserable time for stockholders as we watched the company perform miracles while the stock wallowed. It seems to fly in the face of logic that the disconnect between price and performance could be that sharp.

     

    If you beat a dog every day for no particular reason, it doesn't take him long to cringe and cower. The same is true for groups of people and those of us who grasp the potential of the PbC are still at the cringing stage because we haven't seen any attaboys from the market. On balance, I'd rather recover from a perception problem than a fundamental business problem.
    25 Nov 2012, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Some thoughts on Axion’s share price and the need for attitude adjustment.

     

    

My immediate response was to cringe at the idea that we should buy up rather than buy down. I have been a pretty small fish in the “Concentrator Pond” and like many, I feel I own more than I should based on principles of portfolio diversity. 

John’s idea of our bottom-feeding as harmful to our positions in the long run (considering the impending need for more funding and the dependence of that funding on higher share price to minimize dilution) though, is compelling.



     

    Ultimately, if we believe in Axion and PbC (we have no reason not to believe in its ultimate success) then buying more now with the uncertainty of the timing of major sales is better than buying later when the price is further pressured by the sale of millions of shares at below fair value prices.
    One of my other large holdings, Applied DNA Sciences, shows some interesting parallels to AXPW and may provide an object lesson. Heres a 5-year chart. (

http://yhoo.it/T89FOW;range=5y;compare=axpw... )

     

    APDN makes taggants/markers based on cleaved and re-arranged sequences of botanical DNA that as far as I understand are completely un-copyable.

     

    
Prior to APDN’s jump in August it had a market cap almost identical to Axions, with just a few small contracts for their marking system for cash transit in the UK, jewelry stores in Sweden and Martin Guitar strings. It was known the DOD was seriously looking into the technology for chip marking for months, but when the announcement was finally made the shares jumped from 5 to 25 cents with a current plateau of 17.5 cents.



     

    They have had a similar long-slog like Axion and while I understand that correlation is not causation, comparing the two charts reminds me of the brass ring we are expecting with Axion.
    24 Nov 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I was planning to be offended by the comparison of Axion and APDN, but if you push the time comparison out a couple years the parallels are striking. Just be sure that you don't push the start date beyond July 2004 when Axion had that one oddball trade at $12 because a brokerage firm screwed up a reverse split calculation and jumped in with a market order to cover its error.

     

    I find it amazing that APDN is trading for about 100x book value, but it's probably not unreasonable given the amount they've spent over the years developing their technology. It does show, however, just how cheap Axion's current market cap of 2.2x book value is.

     

    I remain convinced that Axion's price should never have broken through the $1.15 level and that fair value is significantly higher in light of technical accomplishments over the last 2-1/2 years.

     

    It's also fun to note the parallels between APDN's price chart over the last year and my two earlier experiences with supply and demand inflections

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Nov 2012, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    I was surprised at how closely the two charts followed each other over the five year period. The last year and a half showing the divergence/drop in AXPW would seem to correspond to institutional selling, would it not. Anyway, it's fun to look at.

     

    My main point was not to draw a magical stock price correlation between two entirely unrelated companies to suggest APDN's rise somehow foreshadows AXPW's price.

     

    But the comparison does show exactly how quickly things can change with a stock as it transits the Valley of Death. It makes me more comfortable with the idea of grabbing some more AXPW sooner, rather than later and how grabbing more on the way up can be difficult (my last lot is 2 cents in the red).
    25 Nov 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The micro-cap transitions I've seen have generally been more like the APDN pattern than a long slow slog to the upside. What starts looking like it might be a head-fake runs like a scalded cat for five to ten trading days the stabilizes for months. That makes accumulating on the way up a challenge for all but the extremely nimble.

     

    All that being said, I have never seen a stock like Axion that had to eat its way through 55 million shares to see the light of day. With that much stock changing hands, I'm as much a student as the next guy.
    25 Nov 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning

     

    I am a chartered accountant in Canada (US CPA) who has negotiated various licence agreements.

     

    No assocation with any battery manufacturer

     

    Do hold a number of AXPW shares and have followed the story - particularly JP's writings for some time

     

    Have been adding to my holdings as the story develops.

     

    Have a number of friends and relatives sitting on the sidelines waiting for resolution of the financing
    25 Nov 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've always assumed there were five or ten watchers for every holder, although the percentage of watchers may be higher. When I think about the minutes after the clock hits zero in the football game, the winning sideline rushes onto the field quickly and then the stands follow. Backing up the truck wouldn't be prudent, but getting a toehold with a couple minutes on the clock is often a good thing.
    25 Nov 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Are we allocating too much fear towards the 2013 financing, because of the steep discounts we saw in 2009 and 2012? We should remember the discounts were because of the illiquidity of AXPW during those years - investors want to be able to sell out at any time, and a discount is to reflect the potential market distortion.

     

    But, 2012 has had the highest volume yet. Thus, the discount should be lower in 2013. In 2009 it was 2/3 of market price. In 2012 it was around 1/3. In 2013 it will be a 10-20% discount at most?

     

    Perhaps we are fearing for nothing, because a 10-20% discount would hardly impact the stock price at all. At most a small drop and a quick rebound.
    26 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Welcome dlmca. It's good to hear from others who have been along for the journey. It's also good to hear that you have friends who are ready to jump on the bandwagon.
    25 Nov 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Re: bottom fishing
    I understand your philosophy that it won't work forever, and I sincerely hope it doesn't. Therefore IMO this next capital raise could very well be the most critical to holders on this APC as to
    - How it is structured
    - Who buys the new shares
    - the total amount of cash raised
    If it is just another band aid to buy another year, to me that looks bad. If it's a partner or fund, then that is very very good & the stock should respond positively on good news.

     

    There is always a tremendous amount of enthusiasm here on the APC to any development. We seen it last year with:
    - the announcement of the PC (and none have been sold yet)
    - the NS order, which batteries did not ship almost a year later
    - promise of another OTR loco, that did not happen and may be another year away.
    - the Navy building order
    - TG's reneging on the 300% growth
    Don't get me wrong, progress is probably being made....but shareholders have gotten burnt every single time buying on news & management has failed to deliver. I think that is why new buyers choose to wait. They had rather pay more once the company has recurring orders.
    IMO, axionista buying will not make any difference at this point. I expect the financing deal is already cut. Unless a large fund buys, or a partner finances AXPW, if the price is .25-.20 now, how will the mkt. absorb another 50-75 million shares ? Axionistas already own a large % of the company. I doubt the ones who already own can or will be able to buy enough more shares to put a dent in the next offering. It is imperative that the next shares go to strong holders and not a repeat of last year.
    If not, even on good news we have to suffer redistribution of not only 50 million shares +, but as the price goes up....I would not be surprised that up to 50% of axionista shares get sold..then they ride the other half for the long term, because most state they are overweight now and have little dry powder.

     

    One other thing, management could restore confidence by buying heavily on this next offering like Molycorp's CEO & board just done to stop the freefall in their shares.
    IMO, management must step up and deliver.
    Rosewater finally seems to be coming into it's role well now. I find it interesting that Joe Pic was the one who sealed the deal with ePower. They are a year later than I expected, but seem to be ready to move forward in '13. This may be AXPW's largest asset near term.
    My main objective in this post was to address how the mkt. will adapt to 50-75 million new shares, and that managements failure to deliver in a timely manner hurts the stock much more than bottom fishing.
    Happy Thanksgiving to all...and good luck.
    25 Nov 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I don't have a problem with a half-empty glass perspective, but I'd have to suggest that enthusiasm on this board has always been tempered by the knowledge that the big uglies were out there and they weren't done selling yet. That translated into enough support to hold a ridiculously low price but not enough to move the price up.

     

    I'm sure that Axion is in the process of trying to put the next funding together, but I would consider the discussion of a Q-1-13 financing in the last conference call more than a little misleading if the deal was already cut. I believe the broad outlines of a Plan B transaction are in place, including a formula for calculating the offering price, but I'm very confident that no terms are carved in stone and Axionistas control their own destiny.

     

    In a catastrophic case I can imagine a 50 million share placement as a possibility. I view 75 million shares as an absurdity since there aren't enough authorized, unissued and unreserved shares for an offering of that size. Until we have a clear picture of who the future investors will be, conjecture about their behavior seems rather pointless.

     

    With due respect for Joe Pic, ePower was my referral and it's highly likely that I'll be serving as ePower's counsel at some point in the future. I asked Rosewater to get involved because I don't believe I should be directly involved in dealing with Axion if I'm going to write a blog.
    25 Nov 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1725) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations on the potentially new client.
    25 Nov 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Mr. John:
    Excellent position, clarity above all.
    Have a good day-Carlos

     

    For the enthusiasm that permeates this forum, I have a feeling that next week will be a very good week for AXION POWER PbC.
    I also believe that many good things will happen over the next month and we do not forget that is the last of the year.
    25 Nov 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1027) | Send Message
     
    RE: "I have a feeling that next week will be a very good week for AXION POWER PbC."

     

    I have the same feeling. I think the "double" publication of JP's latest (excellent) article has staying power. I'm also heartened by the number of potential investors on the sidelines ready to jump in at the least bit of good news.

     

    Also, as somebody who's into "math", the sheer number of potential good news announcements would almost "dictate" that things will start falling into place relatively soon. Once it does, I'm guessing that "bottom feeding" mentality will dissipate rather quickly.
    25 Nov 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Delays? What stinkin' delays? I don't see no delays!

     

    Why ultracapacitors maintain 30% market growth

     

    "On the other hand, IDTechEx is not happy with the projections of 40% and more compound growth of the supercapacitor/superca... market that are published by some others. We feel that, in the real world, projects get delayed. We typically add three years to what people tell us. Recessions and tsunamis happen."

     

    http://bit.ly/V6lxXH

     

    Wish I knew where to get more reasonably priced supercabatteries!?!
    25 Nov 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    TALES OF THE NEW CASTLE
    by Renzo the Anonymous

     

    Chapter 1

     

    The village of Axionia sat nestled in the Anxiety mountains in the cold Northern realm of New Castle. Survival in this unforgiving land required storage of not just food for the long winters, but energy. You see the villagers couldn’t just gather energy freely from the earth or trees, for if they ventured too far they were besieged by Regulators of the Realm. This was the least of their worries, however, for the monster Lithium also stalked their land.

     

    Lithium tormented the villagers with the support of the Regulators, bullying the people into buying only “his” storage jars. This dark age lasted several years before whispers of stronger, cheaper jar grew too loud to ignore.

    Lithium yowled his superiority and his minion scribes extolled his virtues, but the facade had cracked and Lithium was ultimately vanquished by his own conceit. He gazed in his mirror, admiring his slender figure and brutish strength. But ultimately his outsized reputation was not matched by his deeds, and soon boys and girls no longer feared a monster that only torments the rich kids and bursts alight when struck with a stick. Lithium withdrew from the kingdom in shame (but promised to return in Chapter 11).

     

    The kingdom was safe for now, but other far more tenacious and frightening monsters still lurked.

     

    Chapter 2

     

    Axionia was an industrial village full of industrious people. Their experience with the problems of traditional lead storage jars and the dangers and cost of Lithium jars prompted them to search for an alternative. They were not a wealthy village but with hard work and research eventually they discovered a Holy Grail of sorts, the fabled PbC jar. You see the lead jars of the day tended to wear and break with heavy use, but PbC could be emptied and refilled for a lifetime without wearing out. The PbC’s powers were near divine, but as part of a remote kingdom like New Castle, it was mostly ignored by Hedgefunds, Mutualfunds and other Advisors of the Street realm.

     

    Then things began to change. Someone started talking about Axionia and the PbC jar, assiduously spreading the word from village to village. You see, John the Herald was an advocate, numerologist and alchemist and had lived briefly in Axionia. He extolled the virtues of PbC and its creators (a select group of alchemists, metalworkers, merchants and traders led by Sir Thomas of Granville) and his followers across the realm slowly grew in number. Powers began to take notice.

     

    Some, such as the Lord High Cramer, were fair. Others, however were foul.

     

    Chapter 3



     

    The Grimm monsters were the worst--a trio of ugly trolls named Exodious, Blackrock and Speciasits. The villagers of Axionia welcomed them at first, as they provided needed capital for jar development and requested only a reasonable rate of return.

     

    

Exodious paired with Axionia in what was to be a glorious joint venture but he took the gold provided by the DOE Realm and shared none with Axionia--some say in hopes of a coup. Though tiny and isolated, the Axionians of New Castle were proud and confident folk and such a slight was not taken lightly. They rose to the challenge and Exodious was ultimately banished from the kingdom, atrophied and impotent.

     

    Chapter 4



     

    Exactly what happened next is shrouded in mystery but Blackrock and Speciasits also turned on Axionia, laying siege to New Castle, slowly strangling them of needed capital and frightening away other deep-pocketed creatures that might save the village. The Dark Knight Kilocycles even tried to attack but failed when his steed, Tesla, could not cross the Range of Anxiety that still protected Axionia from the monster Lithium.



     

    The people were despondent but John the Herald was steadfast. He spoke of “tossing around nickels like manhole covers”, “peeing” once, twice or even thrice on an “electric fence” and even telling a mother “Thy baby is ugly”. His aphorisms bewildered, but also resonated with villagers desperate for hope. 



     

    His musings and those of other village luminaries (henceforth the Acolytes-- Iindelco the Maker, Bangwiz the Wizard, HTL the Trader, Tim the Horseman and others too numerous to detail) were distilled, retold, argued over and ultimately given permanence by a scribe from lands far South. Mayascribe and his Concentrators brought wide dissemination of the Sacred Aphorisms and the collective knowledge of John the Herald, the Scribe and the Acolytes to the masses of the realm. Eventually, with the support of the invigorated villagers, the siege lifted and Axionia was once again able to breathe easily.

     

    

New Castle still needs capital and the Herald reminds them that though these times are difficult, they are no longer dark. Talk of the powers of PbC are taking tangible form as orders for the grails. Whispers of the Five Fates--BMW, NSC, the Cube, the Hub and Classeightruck--tantalize and foretell distant (or mayhaps not so distant) riches. 



     

    What became of Axionia is still unknown. In others of his writings, the Scribe told of “The End of the Realm” and “The Mother of all Parties” so further tales may some day be unearthed by Data Miners in the agave groves of his native land.

     

    

Perhaps the best is yet to come.

The End

     

    
**This tale is fictional and any similarity to people, places, corporations, cabinet-level departments or trolls living or dead is purely coincidental.**

    25 Nov 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The tale sounds wonderful in the telling Renzo, but there have been times when it's felt more like Dan fighting the Captain on the streets of Deadwood.

     

    http://bit.ly/UIomKT

     

    Somebody wanna point me in the direction of the woodpile?
    25 Nov 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Hey Renzo, had to stop reading ye ole tale and go to the local "Beers of the World" and get a strong ale for my pewter stein to complement the experience. Almost stopped at the local sword shop to pick up some chain maille and an appropriate weapon. Maybe even a battle axe for Quercus the Great Caster of Shadows!

     

    Thanks for the tale of old! Better read with screen minimized and a camp fire ablaze on the other side of the screen, lights dimmed. A shiver from the Dark Ages before the Age of Enlightenment continuing by the virtue of APH. :)
    25 Nov 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Aye, I neglected old Quercus, my bad.

     

    I'd encourage you or anyone else to add chapters--as long as we skip Seven and Eleven.
    25 Nov 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1027) | Send Message
     
    >LT - RE: "If it is just another band aid to buy another year, to me that looks bad.

     

    Hi LT, thanks for your comprehensive post. My own take is that TG is probably very careful with his prognostications these days. As such, I feel fairly confident that his belief Axion should become at least cash flow neutral by the end of 2013 is a pretty conservative estimate. If that turns out to be the case, then I don't believe any upcoming financing arrangement would be just a "band aid" for another year.
    25 Nov 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Also, we should note that he might have gone bigger with last year's raising... yet for whatever reason the deal was made for basically a year's worth of funds...whether that was Axion's decision primarily or the investor's we don't know... but the fact that only one year was bought I think means that Axion had a fair expectation at that point that a year's time may have been enough to get onto a much stronger footing... perhaps to the point where no financing would be needed other than that to support a major capacity expansion, which of course would only be due to a major contract win. Okay so we're not quite there yet in that year, but certainly we're getting closer...and close. TG may have undershot, but I have to doubt it was by much...
    25 Nov 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • SimpleInstrument
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    They took the offer they could get. If someone else had offered more favorable terms; they would have taken it. The sad reality.
    25 Nov 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Clicked on Seeking Alpha Pro today ... looks like SA is trying to monetize more of their content ... I hope they don't change things too much.

     

    http://bit.ly/QEO4Ta
    25 Nov 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Awful pricey, isn't it.
    25 Nov 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    are you gonna buy it ? I'm not.
    25 Nov 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    Renzo: Note it's geared to "buy side" rather than 'sell side".

     

    Buy side = institutional investors such as mutual funds that are, essentially, long-term investment funds. These prices may be very reasonable for them.

     

    "Sell side" = e.g. Goldman Sachs, that have trading desks that buy stocks, usually after downgrading the stock, that will be later distributed for fun and profit, usually *after* upgrading the stock to buy.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Nov 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Yep. Don't forget the team strategy where they all get together and upgrade/downgrade in unison.
    25 Nov 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The troubling part of SA Pro is that articles will be made available to the general readership for 30 days and then embargoed as long-term resources. As near as I can tell, the Pro level service will focus on articles that fall into the Editor's Picks category. For contributors like me who write the occasional Editor's Pick and like to link to archived articles, it may make life more difficult.
    25 Nov 2012, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Paolo Gorgo
    , contributor
    Comments (201) | Send Message
     
    you (authors) have an opt-out option, to avoid SA Pro "limitations" for readers.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Renault taking a temporary step back from EV stance.

     

    Renault developing first-ever hybrid

     

    http://bit.ly/Tc0Cg9
    25 Nov 2012, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It's pretty clear that Renault was planning on EVs taking their fleet wide emissions numbers down to required levels and slow sales are throwing a monkey-wrench into the works. While the article said they could be planning anything from a heavy to a micro, my bet is lots and lots of micro-hybrids.
    25 Nov 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    It is quite a change in strategy for them. After owning a couple of Renaults, I've never quite figured out how they manage to survive as an auto company. Good drive trains, lots of gadgety stuff that could have a simpler solution, backward technology (i.e. on my 2001, I have to manually close all the air-conditioner vents to get air to come out the defroster - my 1992 had a manual choke) absurdly expensive parts and service - at least compared to my Ford, dash warning lights that mysteriously stay on constantly (always fully serviced through Renault and they can't fix the lights without me spending 1,000 euro and they say there is nothing wrong with the car, it is just the warning lights remain lit) and the interior work is cheap plastic with fabric that gets holes in it from wear unless you use seat covers. Oh, and I forgot to mention that they can't manage to build an automatic transmission that will hold together for any period of time, even the service technicians say they are fraught with problems. And did I comment that they have left me stranded occasionally. Sorry, finished my rant.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:53 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Metro, in that context it is not surprising that Renault chose the supercapacitor solution from Maxwell that doesn't address the real issue with stop/start.

     

    In the solution chosen by Renault the LAB will still bear the hotel load at each stop event and charge times will still expand rapidly through lost DCA as a result of the increased cycles.

     

    We feel pretty confident that the PbC is the better solution but, hey, Renault is Renault.

     

    D
    26 Nov 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Renault hasn't chosen anybody yet. The design win you're thinking about was Maxwell and Continental with Peugeot-Citroen.
    26 Nov 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    John, I'd bet both and I'd bet you are directionally correct. Micro hybrids will take them far further faster and it's a sure thing. Since they bet heavy on EV's and it didn't pan out they need a sure thing and it's gotta be pretty soon. Micro hybrids for all.
    26 Nov 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    " After owning a couple of Renaults..."

     

    Well Metro. We have an answer on how they remain in business. They couldn't do that twice......

     

    BTW, I thought GM was the master of the fault light that has no rhyme or reason. Tape worked well until vehicles wouldn't pass inspection with the light on due to fault codes not being clear as an emissions requirement. "Passes emissions testing but that light is on."
    26 Nov 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    I only buy them cause them are cheap - perhaps not in the long run. My Renault dealer gets the fault light to shut off for about 100 kms, which is enough time for them to get it through inspection which is just across the street. A personal dilemma would be if Renault put PbC's in their autos, I would feel obliged to buy one, even the worst case, nightmare scenario Twizy model.
    26 Nov 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Metro, Me and GM cars as well. I wait until they are desperate for sales, deal with the shortcomings, and run them into the ground. Total cost of ownership works out just fine every time so far.

     

    I'm a point A to B kind of guy. Did it the best with old junkers years ago but got too busy and then too old to do that any more. Plus I don't need "chick magnets". 8-I

     

    I'm currently nursing one that has the light on 90% of the time. They clear it. I drive it for a day to clear the puter fault and then get the sticker. It's an annual event where I live. I've been playing this game since 2006. Always passes emissions inspection but that bit in memory will never go bad!
    26 Nov 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    " ...don't need chick magnets"
    Like I tell my son "Kind, Intelligent, Funny Money". If you are kind, intelligent, have a good sense of humor (some charisma), have money and don't dress heinously you are good with the women. His father has none of these traits unfortunately. Rats, my timetable for tomorrow just got soaked in wine.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    "I'm currently nursing one that has the light on 90% of the time. They clear it. I drive it for a day to clear the puter fault and then get the sticker. It's an annual event where I live. I've been playing this game since 2006."

     

    I've had similar dealings with past vehicles. I'm quite happy now that I have a vehicle that will never need to pass an emissions test ;)
    27 Nov 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "I'm currently nursing one that has the light on 90% of the time. They clear it. I drive it for a day to clear the puter fault and then get the sticker. It's an annual event where I live."

     

    GM's "razor blade" model in action.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Metro, There is always a little gaming. Don't play it too far because you'll always catch some thing. And yet you're fishing for the wrong thing (Part of maturation).

     

    It's always nice to enjoy something outside of your pond. Just don't set the kook too deep for either party. :)

     

    A little R E S P E C T goes a long way. Err, Before the vino. We humans have our weaknesses.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    JRP3: Do you own any AXPW shares? What shares of any company in the battery industry do you own? You need to make a disclosure as to your investing beliefs. Otherwise, everything you say holds zero merit. Seems to me that you want, in any way possible, to thwart and twist anyone from investing in Axion Power.

     

    Why?

     

    Explain yourself, and your motives. Who the heck lines your pockets to write subversive and tangential stuff? What I get from you is that Axion Power has no merit whatsoever in any battery application.

     

    There's about several hundred following this Concentrator who would beg to differ.
    27 Nov 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (989) | Send Message
     
    maya

     

    touche!
    28 Nov 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I don't owe anyone any explanation, but I'll indulge you anyway.
    First of all anyone reading my many posts already knows the answers to your questions. I do own AXPW as I think there is potential for this technology, though I also see a narrowing time frame for it to reach it's potential. Second, I do not bring up "subversive and tangential stuff", I respond to the discussion at hand, which in these concentrators is often wide ranging. Example: I did not bring up the topic of check engine lights and emissions testing, yet you felt the need to single me out. Yes, I did make a barely veiled reference to one benefit of owning an EV, is that enough to shake your faith in AXPW? I fail to see how that would in anyway discourage a rational person from investing in AXPW.
    You have a history of wanting to bury your head in the sand and ignore any other potential technology that might compete with the PbC, as if holding a narrow view will protect you from the reality of the world as a whole. Competing products need to be studied and discussed with factual data, not a "PbC good, everything else bad" mentality. You might ask yourself why a number of us here have no problem with a rational exchange of ideas and information regarding various technologies.
    I'm interested in all battery technology and try to evaluate their relative strengths, weaknesses, potential markets, and potential competition. Advanced energy storage is going to be increasingly important going forward and there is huge potential for growth. I hope AXPW can be part of that, but if there are reasons it can't I want to know about it ahead of time. To do that you need to honestly investigate other technology.
    28 Nov 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    I guess having previously owned Beacon Power, Ener1, Kandi Technologies, Exide and presently owning Johnson Controls and Enersys, as well as posting several hundred links to other technologies, including wind, solar, water storage, graphene, the potential of batteries someday being made from viruses, even batteries that may someday be flexible, doesn't count as being open minded about other technologies related to the generation or storage of energy.

     

    After I started the Axion Power Concentrator series, the idea then was to create a space where all things energy storage related could be posted, tracked, studied, discussed and commented upon.

     

    I've never professed myself to be a battery geek, to know how the guts of all batteries work, but I am an energy storage geek every bit as much as you are.

     

    Glad you own some AXPW. I must have missed that along the way.
    28 Nov 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... I guess you can be forgiven for missing that, rather off-hand, mention that he bought some Axion (AXPW). It occurred way back when John was unsuccessfully trying to explain basic oil conservation using batteries in the most efficient way possible for the largest number of vehicles such as HEV's and not large, expensive & uneconomically utilized EV packs. It was terribly tedious, repetitive & boring. It also went all for nought on this particular poster. I really don't think this commenter understands macro economics or what real resource conservation looks like but does love lithium (the more the merrier) for every application known to mankind.
    28 Nov 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    Not even close to an accurate assessment. I've mentioned a number of times that I own AXPW, and I own it because I realize that lithium chemistry may not be the proper fit for every application known to mankind. Of course I do not buy into the fairy tail of extreme resource constraints for lithium chemistry since actual data does not support that conclusion.
    29 Nov 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Make a nice wish for HTL's family, if you please: http://bit.ly/QFr0Ud
    25 Nov 2012, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I finally got my ELBC materials last week and have been combing through them to see whether there was anything that would be particularly interesting for Axionistas.

     

    The only thing I found that's really helpful was a slide from the technical director of Banner Batteries that puts claims of improved dynamic charge acceptance from carbon additives into perspective.

     

    I've posted a brief Instablog on the topic here:

     

    http://bit.ly/QkCOK0
    26 Nov 2012, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    Has there been any thought of starting an active message board on AXPW on blog sites such as Investor Village (IV)? There is one on IV from way back when, but it's been inactive for a considerable time. That would enhance more info exposure on AXPW.
    26 Nov 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    One of the marvels of this Concentrator series is that it all started when one stockholder wrote a report on what he saw and heard at Axion's 2011 Annual Meeting.

     

    http://bit.ly/Lm1Osm

     

    Since then it's developed a life of its own its own with nobody controlling, planning or directing. I don't think it would be possible to intentionally create a comparable resource on another forum because SA seems to be the place the bulk of the people who've been buying Axion for the last 2-1/2 years hang out.
    26 Nov 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18036) | Send Message
     
    Rupers: IH also has one but I've not visited for a long time. And I think JP was there for a while too.

     

    But none of those boards compare, as far as I could tell, with what has happened here.

     

    But, as mentioned, I've not gone to IH, or IV either, for a long time.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Nov 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I think SA would have to utterly break comments and force everybody to move at once to switch to a better format elsewhere.
    26 Nov 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Could be some supply in the .27 neighborhood:

     

    NITE best offer 2500@.2690 which doesn't change when sales go off at .269, so we know there's more, just not how much more.

     

    UBSS next showing 25K at .27 ... a bit surprising they're showing the "whole" amount

     

    ATDF also at .27 showing 5K

     

    But next is CDEL 5K@.29

     

    Fair amount of bidders in the .26 neighborhood: ATDF CDEL UBSS NITE

     

    250K volume already in 2.5 hours ... not bad.

     

    Was hoping to find a PR in my email this morning, but the week is young.
    26 Nov 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Volume continues strong ... 322K 3.25 hours

     

    UBSS .27 shares taken out ... now 5K@.28

     

    NITE jumped a little to .27 ... best offer showing 2.5K as required

     

    curious that they persist a full penny better that the next best offer

     

    Bids up to the .269 area (ATDF & CDEL) but "only" total of 17.5K ... but it's an improvement so ... yea!

     

    All in all, encouraging ...

     

    EDIT:: PS: ZBB, which has been similarly killed, showing a little strength today as well, and has exceeded it's 3 month volume average.
    26 Nov 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update on this WTB. We who fly blind to level II appreciate the small glimpse into some of what is going on behind the magic curtain.
    26 Nov 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    5000 at 0.26 at the open.

     

    One small nibble for a man, one gia.... Oh, never mind.
    26 Nov 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1549) | Send Message
     
    Interesting day: Many alt. energy stocks are doing well today. Since things seem to trade "together" (as in entire sectors), this bodes very well for AXPW et al.
    26 Nov 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    There's no place like home. There's..........Hey, If I say it enough.

     

    How Two Billionaires Are Supercharging The Electric Car To Upend Big Oil

     

    http://onforb.es/RdMWG1
    26 Nov 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    One billionaire is picking up the pieces after Shai Agasi lost several hundred million and the other is only a billionaire if you assume his Tesla stock will hold its price and SpaceX and SolarCity will both be raging commercial successes.
    26 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Well at least we can't fault them for a lack of conviction. Oh wait a minute. One of them is using a chunk our money. Ah well, the Feds would have pissed it down a rat hole anyway.

     

    Here Toto. Where is the little bugger?
    26 Nov 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    Are you baiting me with all the Kansas references? Remember the Great Wizard was an old Kansas man himself. Have to say that Tesla is doing quite the job of brand building.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Metro, For almost two decades I worked with a guy who I held in high regard. For over half that time, on rare occasion, we'd use fitting references to the movie for certain situations. His favorite was "Ignore the man behind the curtain" when someone was trying to sell us something using a line(s) of s%$t. Always great working with people that are very talented and keep it in perspective.

     

    I gained this most wonderful relationship when as a contractor. I saved him about 750k USD on a project of his that he was tight on money on while in the launch phase. I made out like a bandit! :)

     

    I'm not really baiting you but given many of your responses I could easily be inclined to do so! :))
    26 Nov 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    "One of them is using a chunk our money. "

     

    Are you referring to the loan guarantee, that hasn't cost us a penny, and won't unless Tesla fails to pay it back?
    27 Nov 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "Are you referring to the loan guarantee, that hasn't cost us a penny, and won't unless Tesla fails to pay it back? "

     

    Depends on one's perspective. Subsidies in form of tax credits to wealthy vehicle buyers cost the rest of us dearly and only serve to postpone date of default.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    "Are you referring to the loan guarantee, that hasn't cost us a penny, and won't unless Tesla fails to pay it back? "

     

    Yes, My point.

     

    Thus far the odds are not so good. I'll wait a little while to be proven correct or wrong. I'd like some egg on my face for sure. But in the end it was not the bill of goods the public was sold. Thus far we have subsidized affluent people. There is no new technology.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    "Subsidies in form of tax credits to wealthy vehicle buyers cost the rest of us dearly and only serve to postpone date of default. "

     

    20,000 Model S's with a $7,500 tax refund comes out to 50 cents per US citizen. As I've said I'm quite in agreement that higher end vehicles don't really need the subsidy, but let's not exaggerate the actual costs, especially in comparison to the many other tax breaks that benefit the wealthy.
    28 Nov 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    That's similar to saying there is no new technology in an iPhone.
    28 Nov 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    "...comes out to 50 cents per US citizen."

     

    Well I guess that makes it OK then. ;))
    28 Nov 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Great marketing Exec. that Steve Jobs.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    But even Steve couldn't think up something as cool as the Hypsterloop and asteroid mining for the materials required to make EVs widely available.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    JRP3-> "Forward thinker, tirelessly fighting against misinformation."

     

    Perhaps if you weren't so tireless on what you consider misinformation. Your opinions are very clear to me as you are relentless on your pursuit of their defense. Comments on aging articles and concentrators are equally tiresome.

     

    Please make your case one time and leave it at that. Can you imagine how worthless this forum would be if everyone felt compelled to always defend their position. You do add value to this forum...
    28 Nov 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    " As I've said I'm quite in agreement that higher end vehicles don't really need the subsidy, but let's not exaggerate the actual costs, especially in comparison to the many other tax breaks that benefit the wealthy."

     

    :-) I drew no comparisons "to the many other tax breaks that benefit the wealthy", and did no exaggerate the actual costs in contrast to your apparent inclination to minimize them. Working with your estimate of "50 cents per US citizen" (which I haven't verified) one is working with borrowed funds earning interest that increases the subsidy burden.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9567) | Send Message
     
    Well he wouldn't want to. He needs the ingredients for devices that have far higher margins than autos will ever deliver. He was probably well informed on how much pain this shift was causing them in the purchasing department.

     

    Now if we can just figure out how to change the trajectory of some of those meteors delivery would then be free. Dino delivery service. Quickest delivery guaranteed.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    "20,000 Model S's with a $7,500 tax refund comes out to 50 cents per US citizen. As I've said I'm quite in agreement that higher end vehicles don't really need the subsidy, but let's not exaggerate the actual costs, especially in comparison to the many other tax breaks that benefit the wealthy."

     

    I'll ask my 4 1/2 year old and my 2 year old, but I don't think they want to give you $0.50 each so you can buy an electric car. Nor do I for that matter.
    Now don't get me wrong. I think the Model S is cool looking and maybe fun to drive. So if you want to spend your money on it, I have no problem with that, any more than anyone paying for a new BMW or any other luxury auto. I just don't want my tax dollars being used to pay you back for buying it.
    28 Nov 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    LabTech,

     

    "I'll ask my 4 1/2 year old and my 2 year old, but I don't think they want to give you $0.50 each so you can buy an electric car."

     

    Nice retort.
    28 Nov 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    People keep bringing up the same topics, they feel compelled to make the same points over and over again. I'm not allowed to? As I've said before, I don't bring up these topics, but I do respond. Tesla taking tax payer money is not an opinion, it's a false statement. If people want to refrain from such statements you'll never hear me bring it up. I'm not trying to stifle debate and have no problem continuing the discussion if the topics come up, but expect me to challenge a falsehood, especially an oft repeated one.
    I'm here to learn, as I suspect most are, and that can't happen with inaccurate information.
    29 Nov 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    Lab,
    Maybe I don't want to give my tax dollars to support many of the "non profit" organizations that I don't agree with, or the tax breaks for industries I don't think they need. I'll give your kids the 50 cents each if you'll give me the thousands of dollars I spend on things I don't agree with. As I always say, cut tax breaks and subsidies across the board for a level playing field and I'm fine with that, but don't pretend that EV's are getting a "special" break. The tax code has many different ways to cut taxes that not all individuals can take advantage of. Home owners get mortgage interest deductions that renters do not, which effectively means renters subsidize home ownership by paying higher taxes.
    29 Nov 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "Home owners get mortgage interest deductions that renters do not, which effectively means renters subsidize home ownership by paying higher taxes. "

     

    And just a few comments before you claimed "expect me to challenge a falsehood, especially an oft repeated one." In general, renters enjoy as much advantage from mortgage interest deduction as homeowners but do so indirectly through lower rents than would otherwise prevail if rental property owners were not able to deduct mortgage interest.
    29 Nov 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, Your opinion is welcome and you bring value to the forum. The more you beat your drum the less you are heard...

     

    "I'm here to learn, as I suspect most are, and that can't happen with inaccurate information." Perhaps you should give us a little bit more credit. A non-response does not mean acceptance. Information is distilled in the mind of the individual not the words in a forum.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, listen to Tim. i am already tuning you out like 80% of the time. esp. when you post on old threads rehashing arguments without bringing much new to the argument.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Jim.

     

    I do not come to this forum to read or write rants about politics, for which thousands, fi not millions, of boards exist elsewhere for that purpose.

     

    I appreciate posts about energy storage technologies I would never hear about if not for this forum, news of interest concerning our competitors and potential partners, reports and other documentation JP brings back from conferences he attends, etc., etc., etc.

     

    But when certain individuals start grinding axes about taxes or government spending that apply generally to every sector of our economy or any broad-brush analysis of current events, I note who the poster is, skip over most of what s/he says, and bite my tongue because I am not here to argue about sweeping political generalities.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    "In general, renters enjoy as much advantage from mortgage interest deduction as homeowners but do so indirectly through lower rents than would otherwise prevail if rental property owners were not able to deduct mortgage interest."

     

    I don't understand how this could be true. First, renters and landlords would price the rental to whatever the market would bear, and that is linked to the renter's income. The cost of the mortgage is irrelevant to the renter, and thus to the landlord, when it comes to pricing. Second, if it mattered, the deduction merely raises the price of the house as people can afford to pay more. This also raises rent as home ownership becomes more expensive. Thus it would seem only the banks are getting subsidized here, in the form of higher interest payments.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4202) | Send Message
     
    "First, renters and landlords would price the rental to whatever the market would bear, and that is linked to the renter's income."

     

    Ranm < I think this topic is more suited for say, Jakurtz's Political Quick Chat board (http://seekingalpha.co...) . For the present I will just observe that I don't think I have ever met a consumer (renter) who WANTED to pay "whatever the market would bear" for something the consumer wanted. OTOH, I've seen many, many product/service providers who generally sought to charge the market they were targeting whatever the market in general would bear without attempting to extract every last dollar each individual customer was willing to pay. Mortgage costs to landlords are far from irrelevant since the landlord has a strong interest in recovering all operating expense plus a return on capital.

     

    If you want to discuss further please post to the Political Quick Chat board.
    30 Nov 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    Fair point, but the general idea remains: some taxes benefit a narrow few. In truth to take your point further, those EV purchasers who get to keep more of their tax dollars will now spend it elsewhere, helping the economy ;)
    30 Nov 2012, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu,
    Please direct me to any of my responses to posts that are more than a day or two old. Some times I'm a few days behind but I don't think that's a fair characterization.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8101) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Silence would seem to indicate some form of acceptance, but I hear your point.
    I'll try to ignore all future misinformed EV and Tesla bashing and just assume everyone here knows it's all BS ;)
    30 Nov 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, people poke fun at tesla and EV for sure. they don't bash. neg press about battery failures that are in direct and indirect comp. with the subject of this concentrator (AXPW btw) will get mentioned.

     

    just like new fangled battery tech using X versus lead cardon will get mentioned even if it will never get to market.

     

    this is a 23rd of nov concentrator. it is concentrator 179 of 181. comments on old concentrators are something to be avoided in general.

     

    why have you posted three seperate comments here? all comments could be one, with breaks (paragraphs even) for your private conversations with Tim, D-Inv and Mathieu. instead you post three seperate comments.

     

    that makes Mathieu think, "hey 3 new comments, gotta be more than one guy commenting on an old concentrator. i'll check that out." i come here and it's just you. that is more than slightly annoying. if you wanted to troll me, you got me! guess what? 80% +20% = on full ignore now. congrats.
    1 Dec 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    pssst! stealth rally happening. shhhhh
    26 Nov 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Mr I,
    I think we should keep it on the QT so not to cast the evil eye on it.
    26 Nov 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    up another penny on more than 1/2 a million shares, but almost no comments. me likey.
    26 Nov 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Another PJM - PBR document/primer

     

    http://tinyurl.com/d3h...
    26 Nov 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like