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  • Where's the turtle?
    2 Dec 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Darn, Finishing the finish carpentry work around a window I put in and I'm late again!

     

    Looking at a bunch of behinds again! :))
    2 Dec 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Second!
    2 Dec 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Bronze
    2 Dec 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Will we see an ePower PR tomorrow am?
    2 Dec 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • The truck is supposed to be on the road this week. It's unclear to me whether they'll announce it right away or wait for preliminary mpg figures which should also be available in short order.
    3 Dec 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • "......or wait for preliminary mpg figures which should also be available in short order."

     

    Would be nice to hear "achieved the expected results" with some details, or even more positive wording i.e. "surpassed".
    3 Dec 2012, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • I think it would be more fun to read that the ePower tractor with PbC batteries averaged 12.x mpg and surpassed the DOE's 2018 SuperTruck goal of 6.8 mpg by 75%.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    Those are pretty much the magic words.
    Will Axionistas become a type of "train spotters", trying to catch a glimpse of an ePower truck?
    3 Dec 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting. Don't know what truck spotters would be called.
    Train spotters are referred to as "Foamers"
    Airplane spotters don't have a name but there are Mileage Run junkies of which I used to do some work one back in the day. Generally staff just thought we were nuts. One year I was several thousand miles short of staying Platinum elite for the next year so in early December I flew:

     

    Day 1: PHL -EWR (by Amtrak) - Allentown, PA (bus) - CLE (plane) - Corpus Christi - IAH- LAX
    Day 2: LAX-CLE-MKE-IAH-MSP
    Day 3: Back to EWR - Train to PHL and to work.
    Total cost of the trip was a respectable 2.3c per mile and my hotels were free hotel nights I had booked.

     

    I know a few plane photographers and frequent mileage run guys who got picked up by DHS/airport personnel for questioning and now get the full treatment when they travel. We start hanging out on overpasses and DHS will be knocking on our door in a few weeks. It would be fun. ;)
    3 Dec 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • That, John, would be much more than FUN ++++++++!
    3 Dec 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Question for the community. Has anyone seen anything on output of the generator used by ePower in its hybrid Class 8?
    2 Dec 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • The generator is a 197 hp turbo-diesel with a 125 kw generator, although the CEO told me they can run the generator at 20% over-spec for extended periods.

     

    They're using a 150 hp electric motor for the drivetrain.
    3 Dec 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, JP.
    3 Dec 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • You know what would be cool is if they could use these fleets of highly mobile 125kw generators for emergency peak demand response. I can see a scenario during a peak power emergency where a signal goes out and any truck not engaged in hauling a load at the time could pull up to a plug in port and earn extra cash by pushing power into the grid.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Hi everyone:
    Five years ago we saw the batteries as the black boxes that were used only to start the car and that every two years we had to change.
    The cost of energy, the actual and future cost of oil, the pollution and disasters (intermittence) that are bringing in the grid the renewable energy (Wind, Solar, etc.) is forcing improve current technology to store energy and the emergence of new technologies.
    They, the current Lead Acid batteries suffering from a catastrophic illness called "SULFATION" (I learned in this forum and Articles of JP).
    But the old technology (Lead Acid) will not die, has come the rescue: AXION POWER PbC tech.
    Will die companies who do not understand or refuse to understand that they have to accept the solution: that should work with AXiON POWER (PbC).
    From existing companies that produce Lead Acid batteries: EastPenn, JC., Exide and EnerSys, I think EP has taken the lead, JCI gives the impression that even do not know where are going, and Exide shall deliver a check for $ 32M to rebuild the business with AXION or be condemned to die.
    Have a good night-Carlos
    2 Dec 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • >Carlos ... I believe your eulogy for the impending demise of the traditional LAB is a bit premature ... by maybe 10, if not 20, years. It does more than start cars yet might continue that job too.
    2 Dec 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • The latest presentation from the JCI president Power Solutions still shows a hole in their product plans for micro hybrids IMO (pg 14). Their definitions for the various market segments is on page 9. This was the same situation they classified in last years presentation as "Opportunity".

     

    Unfortunately their timing for the segment is a ways off (pg13). If I recall correctly Valeo actually showed some firm market penetration a littler earlier than JCI does in this document..

     

    http://bit.ly/SK5xF6
    2 Dec 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • In February I used a graph from Lux Research that broke the micro-hybrid market down into three classes of vehicles – light, medium and heavy micro hybrids. Conceptually I think the Lux methodology makes more sense than JCI's simplified A – B presentation.

     

    http://bit.ly/JEsISf

     

    The more fun aspect of the JCI slide is that they sized the stop-start battery market at 6.7 million units today, 40.2 million units by 2017 and 50.7 to 66.3 million units by 2020. That works out to a sustained year on year growth rate of about 40% over the next five years.

     

    If the PbC wins any credible market share, we'll all be happy campers.
    3 Dec 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • I'm interested in what JCI thinks they know. They showed a hole labled "opportunity" in their analist day presentation and while it's not as blatant in this presentation is obvious the "hole" persists. JCI, being as large as they are, has to have a plan at some point. They cannot go into their global customers and say "Well I know I have offerings for your other plans but I can't help you on this application.". The hole needs to be filled via in house offerings or via distribution agreements with someone that has a solution.

     

    We just saw Exide make a move to fill their hole. The Maxwell agreement not the DOE capacity.

     

    What's JCI up to? Lithium hope? They have plans. What are they?
    3 Dec 2012, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • A few weeks ago somebody linked to a new JCI patent that combines a lead-acid battery and a lithium-ion battery pack in the same case. It's also possible that they see some value in the stop-start battery A123 announced, although A123's long-term target capacity of ±600 MWh doesn't go very far it you need 500 to 1000 wh per vehicle.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Yeah, But who really wants two discreate batteries with different life cycles packed in the same case. Reminds me of the TV's with a built in VCR. Yeah, I'll take two of that GREAT idea.

     

    Some patents are just CYA moves. I think this qualifies.

     

    But it is good for one purpose. It's an admission by JCI that there is pretty good risk that lithium ion batteries are not going to fill their "opportunity" hole.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • In the Milwaukee papers the $120M grant that was announced for Illinois (imagine the political patronage to put it there) and the natural connection to JCI and that reseach will also be done at University of Michigan in Ann Arbor which is 20 minutes from A123 in Livonia tells me that JCI has their fingers over all of that.

     

    The MKE paper doesn't print anything about JCI unless they got it from them making me believe that JCI will be the main beneficiary of this $120M research. It also may explain JCIs interest in A123.

     

    I only have the paper copy and not the online but I expect its there.

     

    Edit: found the article online.
    http://bit.ly/VgqU0D

     

    Lots of talk, will be interesting to see in 5 years if they hit the 5-5-5.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • I won't be holding my breath for 1,000 wh/kg batteries.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • As I understand it this funding is for research beyond lithium so I don't think A123 gives JCI any benefit in this case. Unless they have been working on non lithium chemistry in secret.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • More complaints about German energy policy that subsidizes large industrial users at the expense of small business and residential consumers. The fallout (pun intended) will be even greater if their intended phase-out of nuclear power goes forward. How does one say "Power Cube" and "Residential Hub" in German?

     

    For my Schadenfreude, I promise to buy a BMW (when Axion hits $25).

     

    http://bit.ly/11nmN9D
    2 Dec 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Question about replacing AGM batteries with PbC batteries in existing Stop-Start cars:

     

    Does replacing one amount to swapping out the AGM battery and swapping in the PbC battery, or are additional BMS or other electronics changes required?

     

    Thanks.
    2 Dec 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • billa: It's a system. The car's electronics need to accommodate the PbC voltage drop verses state-of-charge characteristic. The PbC delivers significant energy at voltage down to 6V. A typical AGM battery is quite dead at 6V.

     

    That's one very real reason the PbC hasn't been made available to the public as a "better lead acid battery".
    2 Dec 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • silic:

     

    Not thinking about using PbC for a starter battery.
    Specifically thinking about stealing SS market share from AGM's.
    I gather it is not a simple swap but a complete electronics redo.

     

    Thanks.
    2 Dec 2012, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting take on the marginal MW and a predicted increase in natural gas prices ...

     

    http://bit.ly/WD9TiF
    3 Dec 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting post, but the idea that demand-response curtailment only costs $50K/MW compared to $1M for additional generative capacity is a little absurd on its face.

     

    There is certainly money to be made but I suspect the peasants will revolt when their air conditioners are turned off. Remember, the demand for demand-response revolves mostly around global warming hype. In areas where the power grid is overtaxed and grid storage (in front or behind the meter) there is a better long-term case to be made. I'll freely admit I think the money being spent on Green and renewable energy is mostly fatuous self-indulgence so I have trouble with deciding how this will all play out regarding Axion and others.

     

    It was only a couple of years ago we heard about neodymium shortages because of the tons needed for wind turbine development. I feel the rare earth investment pain. It seems to me that people will ultimately demand more generation when they see their utility bills rise because of demand mitigation or storage.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • I like his conclusions but more importantly I like his logic and analytical methods. They're hard to argue with.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • New EPRI presentation -

     

    Electricity Energy Storage Technology Options: System Cost Benchmarking

     

    http://bit.ly/UjIBOr
    3 Dec 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan, thanks. I note Axion was not among invited participants or those receiving 'acknowledgments'.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv, Nor was JCI. Guess they are too small a player.
    3 Dec 2012, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • FWIW, Tim tracked down info on Kuraray Chemical sample bottles of activated carbon indicating each bottle contained 300g carbon. Using his suggested shipping packaging of 12 bottles per carton, 360 cartons would contain 1,296 kg (or 2,857 lb) C and cost $28.6K - $42.9K. Assuming 2% of C content escapes use altogether and 10% scrapage, one 360 carton shipment would supply ~2,520 lb of usable C for electrode production. That number is close to estimated Q2 and Q3 PbC sales based on reported revenues plus batteries committed to the NSC sales contract. Arrival of a second 360 carton C shipment in mid-September would be consistent with timely re-supply of raw material and avoidance of unnecessary commitment of scarce capital to inventory build. Applying the same logic to arrival of a third 360 carton C shipment in late November suggests contracts for delivery have been signed or at least strong expectations for sales of at least 2,500 PbCs have materialized since mid-September. Each shipment would represent about $1.17 million PbC revenue when the batteries are shipped. Since NSC deferred delivery under its April purchase contract, those revenues could fall in Q4 or later while some of the inferred Q4 contracts/sales could be deferred into '13Q1 or later. Should all inferred Q4 sales and NSC purchases fall in 2012, Q4 PbC revenues could total in the neighborhood of $1.6 million.

     

    Note: Q2 "PbC and other" revenues estimated by JP surged to $560K which roughly ties in with TG's 3rd party PbC testing timeline related to BMW S/S program. If the entire Q2 revenue surge was attributable to the BMW program testing, it appears the program size is in the 750 - 900 battery range, not much different from NSC's NS999 effort.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Another question about replacing AGM in existing SS vehicles:

     

    Would partnering with a company that makes BMS's or other electronics necessary to provide a swap-in solution help Axion acquire SS market share?

     

    I am noticing quite a few posts on this board about existing SS cars that are on the market now, and I am thinking about what other decisions an auto maker needs to make besides raw PbC capabilities to make the switch.

     

    Plug Power's GenDrive product is a turn-key, swap-in module that is even the same size as the stock battery in particular material handling devices.

     

    If Axion had something like Rosewater's HUB to dangle in front of auto makers, assuming that is possible, wouldn't the auto makers find it impossible to resist switching to PbC ... because there would be no excuse for staying with AGM, assuming BMS and other electronics to integrate PbC batteries is an excuse.

     

    Thanks.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • The PbC's dynamic charge acceptance is 10 to 20 greater than the DCA of flooded and AGM batteries. So the existing control circuitry OEMs are using for those lesser batteries wouldn't allow them to take full advantage of the PbC's performance. There is no need for a BMS and the changes in control circuitry aren't that significant, but there are differences that need to be accounted for.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • So minor changes in electronic circuitry aren't that big of a deal.
    Excellent. Thanks!
    3 Dec 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • It's not harder, it's just different. Besides, when you get a battery that will do more you need to adjust the electronics to demand more.
    3 Dec 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • I was thinking about how much work an auto maker with an existing SS car would have to do to stop using the AGM batteries they are using now and use PbC batteries in their SS systems instead.

     

    If certain electronic parts have to be fabricated, acquired, and integrated to be able to use PbC's to their full potential, then the change-over strikes me as more complicated than just saying, "Hey, PbC's are better than what we're using now, so from now one let's put PbC's in our SS cars instead of AGM's."

     

    I'm thinking the easier the switch for an automaker, the sooner they would make it.
    3 Dec 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Earlier Iindelco linked to a JCI presentation that sized the stop-start battery market at 6.7 million units per year today, 40.2 million units per year by 2017 and 50.7 to 66.3 million units per year by 2020.

     

    Most current stop-start systems are pretty simple because the batteries can't handle the heavier loads of complexity. The greatest value of the PbC lies in the flexibility it offers for the more complex systems OEMs want to produce, rather than the simple systems they already produce.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... bill_from_sf might be right in thinking that sooner is better to change over to a capacitor type SS system. Although I can't think that the electronics would cost an OEM more than $50 (probably about $150-200 in consumer aftermarket), the cost of the battery alone, be it PbC or other, would make for a very expensive recall event. That would depend on warranty periods and if the present solution can make it to expiration or consumers get angry about failure but it is a gamble I can't see OEM's being willing to take. The net result I see is a much slower rollout of SS to the public than the JCI projections and a heavy lobby to extend EPA rules and/or greatly reduce penalties for noncompliance.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • DRich,

     

    "The net result I see is a much slower roll out of SS to the public than the JCI projections and a heavy lobby to extend EPA rules and/or greatly reduce penalties for noncompliance. "

     

    Considering that the Obama administration just got voted back into office for another 4 years, I don't see them willing to be very flexible on the EPA rules. And TG has said repeatedly that Axion's discussions with the auto OEMs have made it pretty clear that SS is coming fleet wide. It may not happen quite as quickly as JCI suggests, but I can't see most major auto OEMs hoping they are going to change the government's mind on the EPA and mpg targets, so they are going to need SS to meet those standards. How they do that, and if Axion is an important player, only time will tell. IMHO.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Given the fact that stop-start went from a single car line, the Mini, in 2008 to about 7 million cars a year today, I wouldn't underestimate the speed of the production ramp. They have to do it in Europe to make the CO2 emissions numbers. We already saw a drought-based effort to roll back the ethanol rules summarily rejected by the EPA. I have a hard time believing they'll be gentler with the 2016 CAFE ruled or the more aggressive new rules.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • >LabTech ... It is Congress that put in place the regulations that drive the EPA rules. This authorization was done in 2005 & 2007. In the absence of direction and just broad brush setting of goals the EPA is just complying with law. I probably think Obama agrees with the rules as designed but it would be Congress that would change things, not the Executive, by adding "clarity" to what it passed. This could show up as amendment or budget constraint. Either way it is a tug-of-war among our corporate rulers as to who gets their way. Will it be established industrial interests or upstart clean energy? I don't know ... yet, but I'm not a sunshine & rainbows kind of person so .....
    3 Dec 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, John, for helping me understand there is more to the SS story than DCA, which PbC obviously wins hands down.

     

    I was afraid that changes necessitated to SS systems' electronics to accommodate PbC might be a factor that could slow PbC's penetration of the market.

     

    Now I realize that the OEM's are going to make those changes to their electronics anyway to make SS systems with more complex capabilities; so selling PbC amounts only to proving that it does what we claim it does, and we are very close to having fully demonstrated that (I'm thinking BMW fleet testing within the next few months).
    3 Dec 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • I certainly hope you're right about the timing of fleet testing. I've been around long enough that the last impatient gene in my body has been altered. Others are really eager for clearer signs of progress.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • "The greatest value of the PbC lies in the flexibility it offers for the more complex systems OEMs want to produce, rather than the simple systems they already produce."

     

    Hence, BMW with such a strong interest in the tech.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Making money, i.e. profitable...what a novel idea!
    Sans Evergreen et al.

     

    Mass. start-ups explore the more efficient side of clean tech

     

    By Scott Kirsner | GLOBE CORRESPONDENT DECEMBER 02, 2012

     

    http://b.globe.com/UBOGrT

     

    "Sagewell is just one of a handful of Massachusetts companies developing software to assess energy use, and ideally help reduce it. While Sagewell targets consumers, using the images it collects to help homeowners prioritize energy-saving upgrades and find contractors to perform them, others target commercial buildings or architects designing new structures. "
    ""And at a moment when investors (and politicians) seem tapped out on supporting ambitious new energy technologies — remember Evergreen Solar, Konarka Technologies, and A123 Systems? — start-ups promoting energy efficiency suddenly have more luster than ever.

     

    “We’ve seen a bunch of clean energy companies that were really capital-intensive, and relied on government investments,” says Harkavy. “The focus now is on creating companies that can figure out how to make money.”..."
    3 Dec 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq, Making money? How old school of you.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Anyone else see the Bloomberg article about use of renewables by mining companies?

     

    http://tinyurl.com/bs4...

     

    "Mining companies are investing in renewable energy faster than other industries and will account for 1.8 percent of global clean-power spending this year".

     

    Good place for a Powercube.

     

    D
    3 Dec 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie, Yep. Thanks for posting it.

     

    Like with the military when you get to remote areas renewables and efficiency take on a whole new meaning.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Getting infrastructure and supply chains to a mineral deposit is one of the biggest and most costly challenges in the mining world. It's a very logical use for both renewables and storage.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Year round delivery coming to the north.

     

    "The $40 Million Delivery Blimp

     

    The Ice Road Truckers may soon have themselves some competition if Canadian specialty aviation company, Discovery Air, has its way. They want to deliver supplies to the Great White North's most remote locales via dirigible by 2014.

     

    Discovery Air and Hybrid Air Vehicles have announced plans to launch a commercial Heavy Lift Air Vehicle service serving mining camps and secluded villages in the Northwest Territory using airships originally developed for long-term reconnaissance by the US military.

     

    These hybrid aircraft—"hybrid" in that they use both the lift from non-flammable Helium and the aerodynamics of the ship to stay aloft—employs laminated fabric covering an internal catenary system as the hull. The airships will be able to carry up to 50 tons of cargo as a time and will purportedly be able to land or take off from virtually anywhere—thanks to its four propulsion fans.

     

    "The North has been waiting a long time for a year-round, heavy-lift, transport capability." Dr. Barry Prentice, Professor of Supply Chain Management at the Asper School of Business in Winnipeg, Manitoba, stated. "The conditions are right for a new form of transport that is capable of heavy lift, but is also low cost and environmentally sustainable."

     

    These blimps will be able to travel up to 115mph (185km/h) without the dangers of an overland route. They will, on the other hand, run about $40 million apiece."

     

    Nice pix with the article.
    http://bit.ly/YslWpp
    3 Dec 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • And here am I thinking that there is a global helium shortage.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • The dramatic fire of the Hindenburg was the painted fabric burning, not hydrogen (hint: hydrogen flames are invisible).

     

    One could probably blend 50% hydrogen in the helium and get more lift for a lower price, and still be very, very safe. H can't burn in the presence of He.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome back Rick, you have been missed...
    4 Dec 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Seconded! We had felt the loss of Rick in your absence.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks.
    4 Dec 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • >All ... Here is a graphene "break through" material that might just be a man-made analogy to a certain carbon technology we might have heard of before. It announces the growth of carbon nanotubes on a graphene base material with a copper supporting structure. It adds many square meters of surface area and is designed to be used as a battery electrode. I wonder if such a material would infringe on any existing patents?

     

    http://bit.ly/VqmFlz

     

    Sounds expensive to do. I also wonder how it stacks up to coconut husk carbon in surface area.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • The new graphene and nanotube material from Rice is supposedly 2,000 square meters per gram and Kurray's YP-50F coconut husk carbon comes in at 1,900 to 2,000 square meters per gram.

     

    http://bit.ly/TDv3Po

     

    The big advantage of carbon from plant material is that it maintains most of the cellular and circulatory structure nature designed into the plant to begin with. Granted Kurray's carbon is not built an atom at a time by man, but it has an amazingly efficient structure to begin with.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Regarding Axion stock price inflection --

     

    Between mid-May and early November I accumulated 830,000 AXPW shares (at an average price of 30 and a half cents per share).

     

    I feel it was a huge advantage having that constant selling pressure of the big exit-ers bringing copious quantities of the stock to market.

     

    I can't imagine how difficult accomplishing such buying would be starting today. Now, it seems 5000 share buys can lift AXPW by a penny!

     

    I'm currently trying to help a friend fish for 50,000 at a reasonable price and that's proving difficult on its own.

     

    Clearly, happier days are here for those of us with our sock drawers full, between apparent exhaustion of the big sellers and the truly glittering multi-faceted ever-improving fundamentals of Axion.

     

    With my forthcoming Yule letter I'm planning to offer my lagniappe ("something extra"; "bonus"; "gift"): recommendation of an investment in Axion -- and pointing to John P's November 20 SA article as justification for the investment! Gift though it may be, not that many are likely to actually act on it, so hopefully it won't generate too "bad" a purchasing stampede (grin).

     

    Yes, inflection has taken place!
    3 Dec 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC, Good luck with your investment.

     

    No selfish interest out of me concerning the wish! ;))
    3 Dec 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • I, on the other hand, wish you a twenty or thirty bagger because I'm a firm believer in selfish interest.

     

    FWIW my favorite number to watch right now, the 200-day VWMA, is $.337 and moving down. The price has already penetrated the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day VWMA. I'm not having fun yet, but it's getting close.
    3 Dec 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Rugged DC:

     

    You are in good company. I, too, mopped up many, many shares below .30c. There was a two to three week period where I added to my holdings pretty much every trading day. There were lots of shares available, it seemed.

     

    Now, with the stock above .30c, it is harder and harder to add without moving the stock price north a penny (as you stated above). Thus, I suspect there are many of us out there with a sock drawer full of AXPW. This is a good thing!

     

    Cheers!
    3 Dec 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • iidelco: call me green with envy. I believe you bought the absolute low on November 12th, no?
    3 Dec 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • OR, Not quite. I was off by half a peso.

     

    "Even a blind squirrel catches a nut once in awhile.".
    3 Dec 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • iidelco: you are too modest. For that purchase you made, there'd likely be a seller... hence the bid/ask split. If I'm correct, then you actually acquired shares at the lowest offer.... half peso be dammed!

     

    Oh, by the way... AXPW just hit .32 as I write this....
    3 Dec 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • OR, Let's hope this is just the beginning with customers and investors building over time thus supporting what we think we see.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC,
    Hope this works out for us both. You certainly got in at a low average price and congrats on that.
    3 Dec 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Rugged---awesome! You are a heavy hitter around here now. And thanks for the info--good to find out more about the buyers.

     

    Like the handle, too, not sure if intentional, but apt for a PbC investor.
    3 Dec 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • I've been waiting for someone to comment how the 30c resistance has been breached... it didn't last long did it?
    3 Dec 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • We have a lot of congestion to slog through to get to 0.35, but as ruggedDC pointed out, we have seriously improving fundamentals in our sails. It is only a matter of time.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • "I've been waiting for someone to comment how the 30c resistance has been breached... it didn't last long did it?"

     

    That is the big gorilla in the room IMHO. I didn't thing we'd breach it until Wed. or Thursday of this week. X-mas is coming early this year, I guess ;-)
    3 Dec 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • I've been waitng for someone to comment that from the intraday Nov. 12 low to today's intraday high, were up more than 50% in under a month.
    3 Dec 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • What I want to know is when will the mo-mo crowd start sniffing around?
    3 Dec 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • I'd think we'd need to close above 32 cents. Seems like that has been a major sticking point going back to July. I'd be very excited to break the 200 day.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Nice bounce for those who were savvy shoppers in the very brief low 20s.

     

    I also remember how quick it fell from near 30 down to those lows so I can't get to excited until I know the sub-30s are solidly in the rear view. Looks good today though. I'd love to see what happes if 500K plus shares moved thru.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Got a great deal on that elephant skinning tool sharpening investment. Maybe I'll have em coat the edge with diamond just because a little carbon will make it feel j u s t right.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • I still have GTC orders in for 0.25 and 0.20.

     

    No high hopes for them firing, but I will take them if I can.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, I'm waiting for someone to comment that at .32c, AXPW is up over 5% YTD.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • OR: Actually, I have 33 cents as the first level of resistance. I looked a bunch of indicators earlier today (using a one year chart), and all of the upper indicators were moving upward; the lower indicators stated we are strongly overbought pretty much across the board.

     

    If we do push through 33 cents, then we have confirmation that the we are indeed on the first Elliot Wave up. However, all of this could be changed next Q when the cap-raise comes.

     

    I've never trusted my cheapo trading platform with how it reports the buy:sell ratio (today it looks like about 3.5:1). I would love to see the buy:sell ratio today.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • 12/3: Buy:Sell 2.71:1 63.3% "buys"
    11/30: Buy:Sell 2.71:1 69.7% "buys"
    11/29: Buy:Sell 1:2.52 28.4% "buys"
    11/28: Buy:Sell 2.42:1 70.7% "buys"

     

    Working on an older slower Mac with an odd-ball keyboard, so I don't know how much progress I can make, but I can at least do the daily comments stuff a while.

     

    Things got better when I convinced the Mac to read my back-up Linux drive.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Dec 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Here I was thinking if HTL missed today, he'd be eating his heart out.
    Good to see you.
    3 Dec 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL.

     

    Nice you could find some time to drop in. Hope you and yours are doing OK. Be safe my friend and tend to your family.

     

    Extra thoughts for your sister who is carry so much weight at this time.
    3 Dec 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Hard. Looks like right after my post today, we had a larger seller move in. I'm surprised the buy:sell ratio ended with 63.3% buys.

     

    Also looks like someone painted the tape to the upside at near day's end.

     

    Think'n of you, pal.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • you have a mo guy come in and take some profits imo
    3 Dec 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu: Agreed, and the tape painter set it up for more profit taking tomorrow.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, agreed. But first, I need .30c to hold water for more than a day or week! The next levels will be crossed quicker than expected IMHO.
    3 Dec 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey is focused on being less vulnerable to prolonged power outages:

     

    "The Port Authority’s cargo handling operation is a sprawling complex that encompasses waterfront facilities in Brooklyn and Staten Island, in New York as well as vast terminals in Newark, Bayonne and Jersey City in New Jersey

     

    Top of the to do list is exploring how to make their facilities less vulnerable to the kind of prolonged power outage that came after the storm. “We have got to work with the utilities,” Larrabee said. “We are all interdependent.”

     

    He also thinks it’s critical to keep a sense of urgency when it comes to following up on lessons learned."
    http://wny.cc/VgCTvH
    3 Dec 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Expect nothing of value to come from this. The PANYNJ is a political organization full of mafia, special interest groups, political patronage and kickbacks. If there is a more incompetant part of government in America I'd be surprised.

     

    There is a reason that before 9/11/2001 that Mayor Guiliani was planning on not renewing the PANYNJ charter to operate the LGA and JFK airports when they came up for renewal in 2015. This was such a hot potato that negotiations on the 50 year extension were starting 20 years early. He was going to put the operations mgmt out to bid which probably would have been won by BAA (British) or Fraport (Frankfort Airport's mgmt team). JFK would have seen cost savings of $100M annually.

     

    http://on.nyc.gov/TFcRm1
    *********************
    During the blackout in NYC in 2003 the PANYNJ's generators at the airports didn't work even though they had spent millions on capital investment in the 5 prior years. They actually asked, then demanded that private carriers who operated their own terminals and had functioning backup systems to shut down as it made them look poor. Expecting anything positive or productive by the PANYNJ will lead to disappointment.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Mr Holty. I am hoping that many organizations that were similarly affected by Sandy, will be feeling a sense of urgency regarding their vulnerability.
    This could benefit AXPW specifically and hasten the development of a smarter grid generally.
    3 Dec 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • I don't disagree with you. Lots of companies looked at this area in 2003 after the blackout. Even people who thought they had it all figured out found improvements, etc. Sadly, the field testing only kept up for 2 years for most and then went back to mostly being a signature form for most.

     

    For us, while we see it, I doubt we'll get sales from Sandy as we are too new. Its the old adage "you never get fired for hiring IBM".
    3 Dec 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Hey RuggedDC, great post!

     

    RE: ""With my forthcoming Yule letter I'm planning to offer my lagniappe ("something extra"; "bonus"; "gift"): recommendation of an investment in Axion -- and pointing to John P's November 20 SA article as justification for the investment!""

     

    I'm very much thinking along these lines as well. Ever since I first read that article, I've felt it had "staying power" (it was fun to read). And I've been considering sending out a "form e-mail" to some friends and relatives, with links to both that article and the link to the APC. Your post has now prompted me to work on that e-mail, hopefully today, or very soon. Perhaps I'll come up with a draft, and submit it to the board here for "editorial review".

     

    I'm also a firm believer in selfish interest! And I do think this kind of initiative could marginally help all current Axion shareholders. If a number of us followed through on something like this, the effect could be fairly significant.

     

    But I'm also a firm believer in "sharing the wealth". If (when) Axion takes off like we all assume it will, I don't want to groan and feel regrets for not having at least let others know about it. And I think this can be done without having to push it in any manner whatsoever. It seems to me a link to JP's article and this APC would be more than enough information for anybody to decide whether or not to pursue an AXPW investment opportunity.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Exited to have broken through .30, but like bazooooka, would like to see healthy volume accompanying the increase.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • metro: we are about to cross through 300,000 shares today (10-day average around 295,000 shares).

     

    Also, I miss your old avatar... the *real* metro!
    3 Dec 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • I don't at all mind that the volume is not huge on a nice up day---for awhile several months ago, on days when the big selling was abscent, the price often rebounded 1 - 2 cents per day. So far, even after a good run, the difference this time is that no big selling has materialized to drive the price back down. Which allows buyer confidence to grow with each passing day of no Big Ugly sighting. Add in some good PR gasoline, and all the lurkers on the sidelines waiting to get in, and what has til now been a stealthy rally could get real fun, real fast. Love these upward feedback spirals.
    3 Dec 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • The market as a whole since Jan 2012 stealth marched upwards every day with hardly a single losing day on low volume, until May. I'd be okay with a win streak like that for AXPW. Fact is, there just ain't any sellers around! =)
    3 Dec 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Volume did take a big jump after last post, and glad. Now we just need price to stay strong through end of day.

     

    Since I started using the Gladstone Gander avatar, we've had nothing but good news and price increases to boot. I'm not superstitious, but like the new mojo.
    3 Dec 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Hey Metro, as an Oregon Duck fan, I sometimes get chuckles from some of my friends back in Wisconsin about the "Ducks". What I try to emphasis is that these are not just some run of the mill "ducklings", but some real bad ass Ducks, with some real mojo! So I hear where you're coming from... :)
    3 Dec 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • See Metro, Told ya about the avatar.

     

    But as long as your new ones bringing you luck and happiness. Far be it from me to make you come out of your shell!
    3 Dec 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Inflection confirmed as we break $0.36
    3 Dec 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • .36! I'm seeing .3199. . .?
    3 Dec 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • I think inflection was confirmed when we broke .30... but that's just me...
    3 Dec 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • OR, as long as it keeps rising and doesn't return to the mid 20's.

     

    It does seem quite different this time. It is encouraging to hear reports like Rugged above.

     

    When we took a survey a few months ago, I seem to remember reports of people waiting until we pass 32 cents & 35 cents before they start adding again. When that happens others on the sidelines may start jumping in with the price rise. Does anyone else hear the elevator man making the last call?
    3 Dec 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • I hope there is plenty of Axionistas in the buffet line at hose levels since I'm sure there will be some 2012 placement sellers looking to get off the roller-coaster around their 35 cent break even.

     

    I'd love a run toward 50 cents before the 2013 countdown to the next offering starts ticking loudly. Hopefully management gives us till March instead of late Jan or Feb. since we have fuel (i.e cash) to last past then anyhow.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • I expect another round of funding primarily from the same $.35 group - and early, probably January, to pre-empt anyone trying to time the event.

     

    And this time we can expect ALL of them to cash out with something like a 20% gain, having learned from the last such opportunity.
    4 Dec 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not going to predict timing on the next raise, but I've been doing small company securities work for decades and I have never seen a deal where more than about half of the investors tried to cash out in the first two years.

     

    The only lesson anybody can learn from Axion's recent history is that prices get pounded into the dirt when five ±10% holders who should have been swinging for the fences change their minds at or about the same time and decide they're willing to exit at a loss.

     

    It's a great lesson if you ever invest in another company that has five ±10% holders, but it's completely irrelevant to Axion's future because there are no more holders in that category.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Are you saying that the buyers of the last funding offer are still holding and did not sell ?
    4 Dec 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • I'm sure some of them sold, but I don't believe for a minute that all of them sold. My short sale tracking work tells me that about 20% of the 2009 stock got sold in 2010 and another 35% got sold in 2012. I'd fully expect the same behavior from the 2012 investors. We simply haven't seen enough non-short volume at profitable prices this year to believe they've all sold.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Just to try and reclaim the damp raggie...

     

    Until we are safely over .43, we're still in no man's land and nothing is confirmed except AXPW is still a broken stock

     

    Until the price bridges a $1, which it should be above the value of at present, it is still an undervalued withering asset getting kicked around by market makers, traders, and irrational whales
    4 Dec 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • d'accord Jon.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • TB,

     

    I hope we don't get a New Years present where a below market prices is set on our Nov/Dec pps .25-.35. Axion should let things run before pulling the rip cord.

     

    Also I don't think the market will absorb a full placement cash out (20M+ shares) at a profitable cash out. But you point is taken that any gap likely will be arbitraged aggressively by those that do flip these things. Hopefully Axion knows who (and who not) to invite to this dance.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • I don't dream of dollar so much. A few bits at this point would suffice. Anything above the last placement would seem like a good base to build from.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • In February of this year Axion still had an effective shelf registration that it could use to sell unrestricted stock to the new investors. It doesn't have that option today because the market value of the float hasn't exceeded $75 million this year. Oddly enough, a $.75 stock price prior to the raise is in everybody's best interest.

     

    i have as much paranoia as anybody when it comes to investor behavior, but think the paranoia may be a bit over-blown this time around.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    How long does a 75 million market cap need to last (a week; a month?) so a shelf can become initiated/activated? And without that shelf option ,what is the maximum number of shares Axion can issue in the next placement?

     

    Is it even possible to raise 20 or 30 million dollars in the next shelf if Axion wanted to (assuming a sub 40 cent placement)?
    4 Dec 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • In general a shelf can't be used to register more than 35 percent of the pre-offering shares. Unless we see some significant price appreciation, $20 or $30 million is out of the question because Axion only has about 70 million shares that are authorized and not issued or reserved for issuance upon exercise of options and warrents.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • John, do you expect the lions share of those 70M remaining authorized shares to be offered in the next placement?

     

    And going forward in late 2013-2014 will Axion then need to break a 75M market cap again before they can have a new effective shelf for future placements or does the formula recalculate off a new number?

     

    Thank you for the education (as always =).
    4 Dec 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • The $75 million market cap has to be met within 30 days prior to the filing of a shelf registration. The event that allowed Axion to file its last shelf was the Q1-11 price spike.

     

    Frankly, i dont see management going for any funding beyond minimal operating capital until the stock price hits a reasonable level. Axion raised $10 million on the last round because the price was so low. I don't think the board would even consider a big raise at a bargain basement price.

     

    It's Important to remember that the founders are all in with.average prices of $1.25 or more and the exercise price on employee options is in the $1.50 range. So low priced deals are far more painful for the worker bees and management than they are for Axionistas.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • I gotcha. Here's to hoping that the 70 million shares can last us many raises to come. I'd love it if we only use 20 million of those to keep things going well into 2014.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Considering the cash burn rate, and that TG stated Axion should be roughly swinging toward profitability -- the common guess would a 2013 Q4 event -- I'm thinking the offering will at least be in the 8 to 10 million dollar range.

     

    If we continue to hang in the 25 to 35 cent range, I can see the offering then going off at 20 to 25 cents. Which roughly and minimally computes to 40M or 60M shares to obtain a year plus one quarter's worth of working capital.

     

    All a guess, of course.

     

    Still wildly positive about Axion, but I have shifted my timeframe back at least one year for Axion to deliver a major pop to my portfolio.

     

    With "most of" fiscal cliff most likely getting can kicked, and the potential looming bond market implosion in 2013, the timing of Axion delivering this pop, may be right on the money for bottom fishing in many market sectors.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • OK, so you think that buyers who bought last Feb are still holding....so now, TG goes back to the same well and raises another $10 million @ say, .25, that is 40 million shares....you can adjust for price there.
    That means these guys now own 40 million shares + last 25 million shares = 65 million shares ...
    Is this not dangerous for one consortium to own such a large % of the stock?
    I won't go into what the could force to be done, such as board seats etc.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • I sure hope it's less then 40M shares (and all that implies). We need this inflection to spread like an infection. Another 10 cent run up would be nice - like the one we just had.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • I think a significant portion of the February buyers are still holding. I don't, however, think the term consortium is appropriate. The brokers who did the February placement were the same firms that did the retail portion of the 2009 offering where about 14 million shares were sold to about 35 individuals and small funds. An offering that's closely placed among a small handful of investors is far riskier than one that has a broader distribution.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Second that. Amen, too.
    4 Dec 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmmm, No surprise for this board.

     

    Automakers concentrate more on fuel efficiency than horsepower

     

    "During Los Angeles Auto Show, BMW shows off “the cars of tomorrow,” concepts powered by electricity."

     

    "The technologies go well beyond engine types. They include eight-to 10-speed transmissions” improved aerodynamic body shapes” lighter-weight body panels and chassis components” tires with lower rolling resistance” start-stop systems that shut off the engine at red lights” and turbocharging, which creates a denser air-fuel mixture in the engine’s cylinders."

     

    "Even without government prodding, consumers are driving automakers quickly toward more efficient cars.

     

    “I think fuel economy is now embedded in people’s minds no matter what the price of oil is,” Fields said."

     

    http://bit.ly/VgYHXO

     

    3 Dec 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • From the 2nd paragraph, "Fuel economy has taken on greater importance with President Barack Obama’s re-election, which automakers believe will cement federal regulations that require nearly doubling the average gas mileage for passenger vehicles to 54.5 mpg by 2025."

     

    And, "With consumers and the government demanding ever-higher fuel economy, automakers are tripping over one another at this year’s auto show to trumpet technologies that squeeze more miles out of a fuel tank or an electric charge."

     

    “Instead of having a couple of electric vehicles, which are really only suited for a few people, you have mainstream vehicles that get you what you want and have the fuel efficiency you need,” said Jake Fisher, automotive test director for Consumer Reports.
    3 Dec 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ay, Turn em off. :(

     

    National Grid pay Scottish power firms £12m to shut down giant turbines in high winds

     

    http://bit.ly/TyrIOX
    3 Dec 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Bad ass duck! Gave me a nice smile. So did Axion's stock chart today. Technical indicators look good for now.
    3 Dec 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • A local article on Zinc Air

     

    "Energy Storage Firm expands work force
    http://bit.ly/11KhTCL
    The company is developing cutting-edge, patented battery solutions for storing and generating power. Zinc Air products will help solar, wind and traditional power companies by allowing energy to be distributed when it’s needed, not just when it’s produced.
    The company is finalizing its Z20 storage unit and received its second patent last week, “which will greatly improve our energy capacity and cost reduction of our systems,” Waldher said.

     

    The company is looking to begin local installations, its first deployments outside of its own facility, in April 2013. Larger deployments are expected to begin in the third quarter of 2013, Waldher said."
    3 Dec 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Is there any way to get a count of the lurkers on this board?

     

    Not that it amounts to much, but it could give us a feel for how many folks are sitting on the sidelines deciding when or whether to buy.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • I suspect anyone that hasn't been buying in the $0.20s has resigned themselves to waiting until after the impending financing terms are resolved. Therefore, I rather think there may be a momentary decline and then a spike after the terms are announced as by-standers begin purchasing en masse.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • >Pztrick44 ... We've been there before.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Billa
    There is a page views function in regular SA articles. John has mentioned it.
    I assume there is one for Instablogs.
    It may be that only APH can access it.
    if so APH could report it here.
    4 Dec 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • billa & froggey77: SA did not make page views for Instablogs back when I was in the lifeguard chair for the APCs. Doubt that has changed.

     

    So there's no real way to determine how many lurkers there are, or how many times more views than comments occurs.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Those counts probably wouldn't help much anyway. Thanks for the info.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Leaf and Volt sales were both down in November. Leaf sales fell 2.5% from 1,579 to 1,539 but Volt sales plummeted 49% from 2,961 to 1,519. – http://aol.it/VhtO5F
    4 Dec 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Ford numbers are a bit slow:

     

    Ford C-Max Energi: In its first full month on the market, the C-Max Energi sold 1,259 copies.
    uring the month, the number of dealers selling the C-Max Energi tripled in November, moving from 67 to over 200. In very limited release in October, Ford still managed to sell 144 plug-ins in October.

     

    Ford Focus Electric: Ford posted its best result to date on its electric Focus with 179
    Oct. was 118
    Ford had expected the less than 100 dealers to more than triple to 350 by early 2013, but now over 900 are in the process of being able to carry the electric Focus"

     

    http://bit.ly/TjXhje

     

    I wonder if the dealers feeling late to the game are thinking of the hype not the EV numbers?
    4 Dec 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Bolsch gave Bloomberg a 12 minute audio interview yesterday.

     

    http://bit.ly/VhuUhM

     

    There isn't much news, but it provides a good industry overview.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    It bugs me that AGM seems to have the SS market sewn up right now.

     

    Does AGM becoming increasingly entrenched in SS translate into increasing difficulty for PbC to displace it, or is it just a question of PbC proving itself in ongoing tests coupled with the evolution of more complex SS systems by the automakers?

     

    Thanks.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • I think the progress we're seeing in AGM technology is wonderful for the PbC and rather than being disappointed or concerned over the relative strength of AGM technology, I'm thrilled to see it happen so quickly.

     

    A few years ago, global manufacturing capacity for AGM batteries was very small, as in a couple million units a year small. The rest of the industry's manufacturing capacity was dedicated to flooded batteries. AGM was a modestly 'better' technology for decades, but consumers and automakers weren't willing to pay up for the better performance, so AGM technology languished.

     

    The emergence of stop-start systems with higher performance requirements lit a fire under the world's battery manufacturers and they all started building AGM capacity because it was a better technology than flooded. Within a year or two, global AGM battery manufacturing capacity should top 20 million units, which will make AGM the "best available technology."

     

    Architecturally, the PbC is an AGM battery. That means it can't be made in a flooded battery plant. While upgrading a battery plant from flooded batteries to AGM batteries is a huge undertaking, upgrading an AGM plant to PbC batteries is a simple matter of swapping carbon electrode assemblies for conventional lead grid electrodes.

     

    We are just now getting to a point where there's enough hard third party data to support flat-footed claims that the PbC technology is several times better than AGM technology when it comes to cycle life (5x to 10x) and dynamic charge acceptance (10x to 20x). In an industry where 5% to 10% annual improvements are the norm, gains of several hundred to several thousand percent are staggering.

     

    Once the first OEM steps up to the plate and decides that it needs PbC performance instead of AGM, the pressure to follow suit will be immense because the advantage is so very substantial. A few years ago, that pressure would have been sharply constrained because battery manufacturers would have had to build new plants to accommodate the PbC technology. By the time Axion ramps its electrode fabrication capacity to a meaningful level, there will be tens of millions of units in existing AGM plant capacity for the PbC electrode assemblies to slide into.

     

    Remember, Axion doesn't want to compete with the established industry leaders. It only to sell them a component that will make their best products an order of magnitude better.

     

    I cheer every time I read a new release about Exide, JCI, Enersys or anybody else ramping their AGM production capacity. They think they're building new capacity for today's best available technology. I think they're building new capacity for tomorrow's best available technology and inadvertently turning what might have been a bumpy commercialization path into a paved highway.

     

    Axion's long-term plan has always been to prove the superiority of the PbC technology with end users and then leverage end user demand to force component supply relationships with other battery manufacturers who have the AGM manufacturing capacity.

     

    When you start thinking of new AGM plants as potential customers instead of thinking of them as potential competitors, the path forward gets fascinating.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:38 AM Reply Like
  • John, I think the thoughts you just encapsulated here will do much to fill in some key conceptual gaps that I suspect a lot of folks may have had but not fully realized. Talk about hitting the nail squarely on the head. Many thanks....
    4 Dec 2012, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • It is a shame he forgot what AGM stands for at 07:40. Mr Bolch, if you want tout AGM battery, you'd better know how to spell it first.
    4 Dec 2012, 04:18 AM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    It appears that you and the other leaders at Axion made a great decision years ago to build a drop in component for an existing technology. What's even more amazing, you could not have predicted the rapid expansion of AGM production and all the other possibilities that have now developed for the PbC technology.
    4 Dec 2012, 05:40 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not entirely sure we understood just how few AGM plants there were at the time. I know that I didn't really grasp the situation until JCI and others started talking about ramping global AGM capacity from levels that struck me as shockingly small.

     

    We always wanted the PbC to be a drop-in component for manufacturers because it seemed like an ideal way to leverage existing plants, supply chains and distribution networks without trying to dislodge entrenched competitors.

     

    Whether you want to credit us with prescience or pure dumb luck, the path the industry is taking today bodes well for the future adoption of PbC technology.
    4 Dec 2012, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • Morning everyone!
    Mr John, thanks for your excellent comment.
    Your comment, complemented what I've been thinking about PbC batteries these days:
    -.For the initial difficulty of getting a replacement battery (AGM/PbC) in many countries, car makers took the option to equip the vehicle with a battery for starting and other one for hotel-loads.
    -.For example in South America there is no facility manufacturing AGM batteries.
    -.In the event that the car is equipped with a single PbC battery and is being damaged, must wait until the dealer import the battery to change. The car would be out of service during that time, this possibility does not want to take the car manufacturers.
    It is a matter of supply, no PbC incapacity of the battery to run start and hotel load.
    Have a good day-Carlos
    4 Dec 2012, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like I finally asked the right question!

     

    Thank you, John.

     

    Your answer connects several of the most salient dots in the PbC story, especially that scaled-up AGM manufacturing capacity is providing Axion precisely the market that our business plan calls for, namely battery manufacturers who are able to build lots of batteries using the PbC anodes we know how to make and want to sell them.

     

    Meanwhile, automakers are in the process of enhancing the capabilities of Stop-Start systems to squeeze every bit of efficiency they can from their fuel tanks, which in turn makes AGM an increasingly less optimal battery technology for those systems.

     

    The result is a perfect storm for PbC: demand by the automakers for PbC's unique capabilities and AGM battery manufacturers' ability to manufacture batteries using Axion's PbC electrodes at a scale able to satisfy that demand.

     

    Buying AXPW now for 30 cents is starting to look a lot like having bought ISRG for a similar price in 2004.
    4 Dec 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • With this post, John, you've added materially to my already very bullish perspective on Axion. Thanks!
    4 Dec 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • The nice thing about blogging is that it keeps you humble as you learn what you've communicated well and what you've communicated poorly. I'm glad I finally found the words to explain the manufacturing requirements for PbC batteries but wish I'd found them months or even years ago.
    4 Dec 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... The PbC began as a good, intuitive & simple idea. There seems to have been a lot of naïvety from the get-go that went into the PbC from developers to investors. Damn good thing, too. Reality bites hard, hurts greatly, heals slowly and is scary if you know its stalking you.
    4 Dec 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • It's safe to say that none of us understood how hard the process was going to be in late 2003. On the other hand, none of us understood how big the opportunity was going to be either.

     

    We started with the idea that the PbC would be useful for short cycle storage in alternative and traditional power generating facilities – PowerCube stuff.

     

    We didn't even consider the possibility that the PbC might be useful for rail, micro hybrids, hybrid heavy trucks, APUs or any of the other applications that have evolved as major new markets while the PbC was being developed.

     

    Sometimes I guess it's better to be lucky than smart, because if we'd really been smart we might not have committed ourselves to the path.
    4 Dec 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • "It's better to be lucky than good.". But being both works great too.
    4 Dec 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • The harder I think about doing something the harder it gets. I usually end up backside on the couch watching reality tv.
    4 Dec 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Once you enter the valley of death there are only two possible outcomes – you fight your way to the other side or you die. That's why I believe the team is usually more important than the technology. A weak team with the best idea in the world doesn't stand a chance. A strong team with a mediocre idea is a solid bet. A strong team with a great idea is unstoppable.
    4 Dec 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • billa-thanks for the questions!
    4 Dec 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • ""It's better to be lucky than good..But being both works great too" Sounds like RGIII's night last night against the G-men on MNF with that fumble turned into pitch out touchdown.
    4 Dec 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    To be fair, it's not that you haven't found the words in the past to explain the manufacturing requirements for PbC batteries, but more that the audience you are communicating that information to changes over time. With so many concentrators, so many posts, and so many topics, things get forgotten over time and so you get stuck with the need to repeat information over time. IMHO
    4 Dec 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • In any event, it's good to be reminded that old ground needs to be replowed regularly.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Technology developers are usually trying to solve a specific problem. The technology inventor is not always the best predictor of what it will be used for.
    The telephone was invented to help people with hearing problems. Who would have thought 43 years after ARPANET was deployed, it would be used by a group of otherwise unconnected people to discuss a Billion dollar company with a market cap of $35 Million.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • ... And share pictures of the grand kids..
    4 Dec 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • JP, I think you've done a fantastic job of mentioning your main points over and over again. While an Investment Advisor, I found that is's absolutely critical for a diversified retail audience. New viewers coming in, existing viewers forgetting, and almost everybody distracted with their busy lives.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Hopefully our new webmeisters can find them, too, and put them on the front page of the website. That way John doesn't have to keep repeating himself.

     

    Like I'm asked at work all the time: What happens if John gets run over by a bus?
    4 Dec 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • He will return more powerful than you can possibly imagine...
    4 Dec 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • "What happens if John gets run over by a bus?"

     

    While on the mend he'll right a treatise on how use of a PbC, with it's greater DCA, would've prevented that accident by adding additional braking via the drag exerted by the regeneration process.

     

    And, being a lawyer, will then use the spare time remaining to prepare for what lawyers would do in the case of egregious negligence and ... "Act Naturally". ;-))

     

    http://bit.ly/THYlKr

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Hi everyone!

     

    It is not to surprise, but surely the surprises will continue to appear.

     

    U.S. Brushes Aside Push for Detail on $100 Billion Climate Aid (Bloomberg)
    http://bloom.bg/SMxayZ
    5 Dec 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Carlos,
    Excellent find.
    It is time for countries to put up or shut up. JP has continually stated that it is impossible to get the underdeveloped countries to lower their carbon footprint. If he is correct then, no change in climate control can possibly occur. Yet, the economically distressed countries are saying "Hey, if you want me to burn less you have to help by restoring the loss to my economy."
    This could be a thorny issue for many years to come.
    5 Dec 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • As renewable energies push the price of energy up over here, Energy intensive business movers over there where they build cheaper more polluting (mostly coal) power plants. The result is more and deadlier global pollution than had we done nothing.
    We need to develop better answers than we have now.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77:
    Answers such as:
    -.Power Cube.
    -.Stop-Start
    -.Residencial HUB
    -.Truck APU
    -.Hybrid Truck
    All with: AXION POWER PbC Tech.
    Have a good day-Carlos
    5 Dec 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • A carbon tax as advocated by David Frum, is the answer.
    http://bit.ly/VklulG
    I am convinced that my generation is facing its WWII moment, its generation defining struggle. Its a fight to save the earth for our children--of which I have two.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • "'Hey, if you want me to burn less you have to help by restoring the loss to my economy.'
    This could be a thorny issue for many years to come."

     

    Or maybe the issue will be recognized as a non-issue. 16 years of rising atmospheric CO2 with no statistically significant atmospheric warming.
    5 Dec 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • http://1.usa.gov/Vkoj6h

     

    The heat capacity of water (the oceans) is orders of magnitude bigger than air (the atmosphere).

     

    Greenhouse heat is absorbed by the oceans, as is CO2.
    5 Dec 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • " http://1.usa.gov/Vkoj6h"

     

    Climate is a bit OT. I will respond with http://bit.ly/TQD6FJ and urge taking further discussion of the issue to Maya's climate or Jakurtz's political instablogs.
    5 Dec 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv,

     

    I'm glad you suggested discussing climate on another board instead of here, seeing as to how you are the one who brought it up on this one.
    5 Dec 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • "I'm glad you suggested discussing climate on another board instead of here, seeing as to how you are the one who brought it up on this one. "

     

    :-) Your premise is not supported by the facts, either with respect to who started what or to other climate.
    5 Dec 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Scroll back 5 messages and look at name on this post:

     

    "Or maybe the issue will be recognized as a non-issue. 16 years of rising atmospheric CO2 with no statistically significant atmospheric warming."

     

    Please drop this.

     

    This board is about energy storage technologies and applications, particularly as these topics apply to our investments in Axion Power.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • "Scroll back 5 messages and look at name on this post:"

     

    Scroll back to the message before that and look at the name of the post that read,

     

    "A carbon tax as advocated by David Frum, is the answer.
    http://bit.ly/VklulG
    I am convinced that my generation is facing its WWII moment, its generation defining struggle. Its a fight to save the earth for our children--of which I have two. "

     

    Your assertion that I started conversation on climate is not supported by the facts. You are not on a "high road" path here and I will not tolerate any insinuation in that regard by you.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Hi everyone:

     

    "...the progress we're seeing in AGM technology is wonderful"

     

    From my point of view the progress has been great and excellent, but not enough.
    Flooded and AGM batteries suffering from a terminal illness that could not remedy and is called: SULFATACION.
    Additionally the new generation of cars need batteries with better Cycles of life, higher charge acceptance and faster recharge in partial state of charge.
    The solution to the above problems is to make internal changes in the structure of the battery: "Replace Lead Negatives electrodes
    with PbC Activated Carbon electrodes".
    Adding external battery changes such as those proposed EXIDE with MAXWELL., does not remedy the disease, only prolongs for a short time the life, but death came.
    That's my opinion.
    Have a good day-Carlos
    6 Dec 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • New article on Norfolk Southern and its potential risk from current litigation.
    Risk of which the market is not yet aware.
    http://onforb.es/VtEJ1P
    It was published this morning and may be of interest to axionistas, given our focus on NSC as a customer.
    4 Dec 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • A potential exposure of $68 million isn't material to a company like NS that makes $1.6 billion a year. I was amazed that the article deals with a liability that allegedly arose in 1967, two years before I graduated from high school. Without knowing anything else about the case, I'd guess that NS' lawyers are not losing sleep.
    4 Dec 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • This is the second article the author has published on the topic. He's obviously hoping the case goes PW's way, since he is long on that company.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Someone is "shakin the bush" hard for shares today trying to get some selling going.

     

    http://bit.ly/VtG8FF
    4 Dec 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Going a little further down the path of competing technologies, I happen to believe that we should also be happy about the progress of competing technologies - the Coke/Pepsi scenario. I think that viable competitive technologies with different sets of strengths/weaknesses (hopefully net/net inferior to PbC) will create a sort of rising tide that lifts all boats. This is particularly important for regulatory-driven markets like stop/start. I believe that regulators will not force OEMs to use a one-source technology. At the minimum, they will face enormous pressure from the OEMs not to do so. In summary, I am a little more pessimistic than JP because I think the regulators will only move if there are two "best available technologies".
    4 Dec 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting point, but in the regulator's eyes, isn't there already a second technology in AGM? That already is used for SS and met their requirements, technical details be damned. Is there any reason to think the regulators would actually specify a battery type? I think not and thus there are several "contenders" for the SS battery already.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • That's a good observation. All the world hates a monopoly.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Time to break up the Axion behemoth?
    4 Dec 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Possibly more problemmatical is the issue of a sole-source provider of a "socially important technology" within a "you didn't build that" regulatory environment.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not an suto industry history expert, but I do know that in some cases governement has forced industry to adopt specific solutions to problems, such as seat belts, airbags, and I think, catalytic converters.

     

    In others, they have allowed a blend of solutions, giving the industry at least some discretion as to how each company wants to meet the goal. Such as, generally, mpg.

     

    Seems to me there is no realistic single solution to the problem of how to dramatically increase mpg and reduce emissions in an economically viable way. The automakers are acting that way, anyway, and the government is learning a hard lesson in that by the failing electric vehicle idea.

     

    So if many smaller solutions are needed to cumulatively reach the overall goal, which of the smaller solutions might the government mandate, if any? One that they've tried is a small portion of the fleet having to be zero-emissions and therefore, practically speaking, electric for now. Will they try the same thing with diesel? Maximum coefficients of drag? Maximum weights? Start-stop?

     

    If the answer is no for s/s, then it has and will continue to have a lot of competition, when you broaden the definition of competiton to things that raise mpg and lower emissions.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Look out Mr. Thomas Henry Rearden Granville, better watch your six.. ;)
    4 Dec 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I, Don't forget that there are many options available to achieve success but only one on how it's measured in each market. Right now SS is not rewarded by the US measurement system.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco---yep, which means competition for s/s, as some of the other mpg/emissions solutions currently get (full?) credit and s/s doesn't.

     

    Here's an interesting topic---who will lobby for s/s? For one, the big AGM manufacturers badly want s/s, with all the millions they're spending on its buildout. Makes their success easier if it's specifically mandated. BUT, if a minimum longevity standard is enacted, too, then they gotta come to us and maybe also lithium ion. We are proprietary and lithium in general isn't. Hmmm, swing-lining. You put your best foot forward, you put your best foot back, you swing it all about...
    4 Dec 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Can't break up Axion, Alphameister - we're too big to fail.

     

    When you consider the strategic importance of our technology, we really should be included among the big banks and given a small bailout of, say, a couple billion.

     

    Yeah, a couple billion sounds about right.

     

    D
    4 Dec 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • A minimum mpg standard that spans whatever technologies automakers use to get there seems to me about as granular as government regulation would sensibly go.

     

    Regulating how long an SS battery has to last, for example, seems impractical to me, as something like that would not derive from the sort of macroeconomic data, like billions of barrels of oil consumed per year, that governments are designed to monitor.

     

    Government is a top-down problem solver: get me this many miles a gallon of gas. I don't care how you do it.

     

    When government tries to solve technological problems bottom-up by mandating implementation details, it sometimes gets in trouble, which is unfortunate because ideologues who hate government (because they have to pay for it) seize on these occasional failures to attack government broadly, despite the innumerable advantages (clean water, safe food, air traffic safety, etc.) government regulation provides.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with you for the U.S. where automakers have flexibility on how to achieve certain MPG figures. In Europe, I believe SS has been mandated.

     

    JP has stated repeatedly that AGM, however poor a solution it is, is right now the ONLY available technology from a regulatory perspective, and therefore OEMs won't be punished for doing the best they can.

     

    Only when something better becomes "available" (from a regulatory perspective) will the European regulators start to push the OEMs. My point was that there'll have to be two competing technologies that are both viable and available before they'll act.

     

    Circling back to the U.S., two available start-stop technologies aren't necessary because by not specifying the how, US regulators have put SS solutions into competition with other non-SS "Substitute" technologies (as Michael Porter would call them). So, in the case of the U.S. automakers do not necessarily need a viable SS competitor to prevent Axion from potentially achieving monopoly profits.

     

    So, this model shows that there could be incentives for BMW not to rush its PbC program. That is, the idea might be to have it available for when the regulators are ready to move, but not sooner lest they actually CAUSE the regulators to move.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Billa: OTOH it is quite reasonable that the government mandate the the implemented solutions actually work for extended periods rather than just being window dressing tp paint themselves a pretty picture.

     

    We already have precedent for that.

     

    And I'm one of those to which you refer and have no qualms with them doing the *real* "right thing".

     

    But that's all I'll offer to left-coast opinion.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • While I agree that government is unlikely to mandate stop-start or any particular flavor of stop-start technology, I think its quite likely to adopt performance standards for stop-start batteries.

     

    Stop-start is being sold to government and consumers as pollution control and fuel economy. Systems that crap out after a few months because the manufacturer scrimped on the battery is green-wash.

     

    As long as enhanced flooded and AGM batteries are the best technology available at relevant scale, there's likely to be some regulatory rubber. Once a better solution is proven, cost-effective and demonstrably scalable, the regulatory rubber will get far less flexible.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • nice to hear from you HTL.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I, You shouldn't leave out the Ultrabattery. It's a possible solution so there are multiple options and that's a good thing for Axion as well.

     

    Most don't like monopolies. Viva senor Slim.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco---left out Ultrabattery for brevity. Overall point is the PbC is not anywhere close to having a monopoly on increasing mpg and lowering emissions.

     

    Regarding pushback on being a sole-solution/provider, I assume none of the players are brain-dead, so all of them are well aware of the issue. Very common issue in the biz world generally. Wonder how open The Negotiator and the other players are to win-win solutions. Axion doesn't need to hold out for a bazillion dollar valuation to help make us all wealthy. I'd gladly exchange the "az" for a lot more certainty.

     

    And I keep saying how glad I am that the company diversified its target applications. There's a LOT more here than automobile s/s, thankfully. Synergies (drive costs down more and faster, "hey, if BMW likes it, so will we", etc.) with the other mkts, for sure, but there ARE other mkts.
    4 Dec 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Seems to me that if Axion is selling its components to competing battery companies (Exide and EnerSys for example), then this may not really be viewed as a monopoly. OEMs will be able to choose the battery supplier that best fits their needs, so a level of competition will exist.

     

    This raises a question - if both Exide and EnerSys were to graduate to selling PbC batteries, would they necessarily have the same performance, or would each manufacturer still be bringing some proprietary elements?
    4 Dec 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • The carbon electrodes are just one part of the battery. The manufacturers (Exide, Enersys, et.c) decide on the thickness of the Pb plates, the quality of the tab soldering, the wall thickness of the case, the types of terminals, etc.

     

    So, the best manufacturers will have products with similar performance, and there will be significant variation among the second tier companies.
    4 Dec 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill, The auto industry has well documented procedures for launch processes from concept through the end of providing service parts. Many other industries have adopted or adapted these procedures for their needs as well.

     

    It's very complex unless you've used it. I've launched hundreds of programs with the various tools so I'm familiar but not so much with the mechanics of all the deliverables because different layers of organizations take lead roles in the process at various stages.

     

    Changes also go though a similar process and documents from the launch process need to be updated. Changes can be in design, or process and even when moving a production line to a different location in the same site. Everything needs to be treated like a change and requires risk assessments.

     

    Here's a very top level read.

     

    http://bit.ly/TEhfoI
    4 Dec 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • The more you deliver, the more pigs will demand.
    4 Dec 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Start-stop makes sense and there is little or no downside. Although I've only ridden golf carts and fork lifts with S/S.

     

    With the hidden agenda of legitimizing itself, I believe government intends to continually pre-empt any positive moves by private industry; they will mandate start-stop in the next two-three years, IMO.
    4 Dec 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ahhh, You know you have a great broker when you put in an order to buy at the ask and it takes over 10 minutes to execute. :(
    4 Dec 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... You should have been an Axion buyer back when it took over a week to get filled ... and had to pay up to do it.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Ugh.

     

    But when they show an ask price and the block volume available and you put an order in for it. Over 10 minutes! I've never seen such a thing. I'm guessing the brokers mm had a puter problem. Or they are running their system with a 0.0001 Hz clock speed!
    4 Dec 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco---I've had to wait numerous times, too, but never close to 10 minutes. I think the longest was a minute or two. Interestingly, it's happened more recently than even just a few months ago. Not sure if that's significant, but it fits with the Big Uglies being out of stock---the MM may now have to make a call or two to get the sellers he needs to fill your order.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • they are piecing your order together and trying to squeeze a 1/10th of a cent out of the deal. that's harder now that sellers are out of shares.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I , Yes, It's more recent. I've seen times running in the minute rage of late as well. This time was extraordinary. But it's only recently I've seen this.

     

    I was thinking it might be some of the aftermath of the hurricane? Maybe the fiber is not lit and they are using smoke signals? lol
    4 Dec 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • ""Maybe the fiber is not lit and they are using smoke signals? lol""

     

    Perfectly reasonable assumption. LOL
    4 Dec 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • IIndelco: ... or they're trying to get both sides of the trade on their market to get fees from both sides and so delay execution of your order on NBBO. I think this is what ETrade now tries to do if me assessment of their piss-poor execution being excused by "... a match never came in".

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL.

     

    Kind of like real estate agents. So many games.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu, I thought the block was available since I matched what was offered. Anyway, It appears different of late. Maybe good......or not. Most probably insignificant.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • iind ... Possible that the block offered at the price you wanted was available at the broker posting the offer? But to execute at that price your broker would either have to pass your transaction to that broker and collect no fee themselves OR to acquire the shares bid for at a price that yielded your broker a net transaction fee (commission).
    4 Dec 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, Beats the heck out of me. It's all very complicated and the mm's get some advantages we don't. For some reason they like it that way. Can't imagine why.

     

    I myself would just assume be a congressman/woman where insider trading is legal.
    4 Dec 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • A few years back, I had the price go straight down through my offer. (and back up above it!)
    I was told I could put in a complaint but my money would have been locked up until it was decided. (Unknown length of time.)
    I didn't know about it until they were closed for the day. The next morning the stock was lower so I bought then and didn't submit a complaint. It was State Street (401 K through work with no choices.)
    That part got bought out by ING in 2009 IIRC. (Financial trouble and ING had previously gotten bailout money from its govt. and probably ours.)
    4 Dec 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Froggey77, yep I've been there years ago. Will not get into the deals but mistakes are made.

     

    Then there are the stories I could tell where it was arranged at a higher level and all you could do is cry. The worst of the worst are not the stories we often hear. They reside in government and on Wall Street.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like we've been adding a new follower every other day.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Occam
    We kind of sat on the same number for a while, and now it's as you say a new follower every other day. Maybe that number will really take off one of these days.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • OT: But because NITE has been one of the thorns in our side, and because they do more than make a market, I thought some might be interested.

     

    http://bit.ly/VyhpfE

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • I am not a Volcher fan, but this is exactly what he tried to do with the rule to seperate the trading desks from the TBTF....

     

    One bad trade and slip, and basically the company is broke. GS was the only winner out of the NITE fiasco.
    Can you imagine with the trillions in derivatives how this could and probably will play out some day ?
    Oh well, you won't have to worry about debt then, they will just erase 100% of it like cleaning a black board and start over. Meantime they get to kick around the little minnows like AXPW.
    4 Dec 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT: um.. don't get too sanguine. Google (re-)hypothecation (sp?) for a nice Halloween story. Pick the one pointing to Zero Hedge for the best discussion of the potential scary parts in that.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL. One of the problems with slipping on a banana peel is that someone will offer to help pick you up. All the way up.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Below, please find a link to a seeking alpha article by Larry Smith which I believe has some indirect application to us Axion investors.

     

    Mr. Smith, along with JP and Theodore Cohen are my favorite Seeking Alpha writers. Smith (whose background is very impressive) writes about biotech companies, including some very small companies with Axion-like market caps and Axion-like break-though technologies.

     

    I would recommend you read the section titled "A Perspective on Investing in Stem Cell Therapy" for a discussion on why these kinds of biotech companies struggle so much for institutional interest when the risk/reward seems so exceptionally high.

     

    http://bit.ly/YM6Mu9
    4 Dec 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • AP,

     

    I have been following Neostem (NBS). I like it because it uses adult stem cells. Here's a link to an article with Neostem as one of the featured stocks.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Dec 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the link. I am interested in bio-tech, but I posted the link on this board because I think Smith is addressing the question that people on this board constantly wonder about: Why hasn't Blackrock/GE/GM/BMW/et... invested in Axion?

     

    Just the other day, after hearing my spiel on Axion, an investment manager friend asked me that question, which as far as he was concerned ended any interest he may have had in the stock.

     

    Basically, his was an efficient markets argument. Like the joke about the economist refusing to pick up a $20 bill he sees on the ground because if it were a real $20 bill someone would have picked it up by now.

     

    Still, Smith's explanation is better than the one I gave my friend the other day and maybe you all will find it comforting to some extent.
    4 Dec 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • "When asked about the types of companies in which they liked to invest, they said that they favored companies whose lead products had data from well controlled, randomized phase II trials. They also favored companies working with proven technologies such as small molecules and monoclonal antibodies."

     

    As I mentioned before, biotech stocks typically get their value boost after phase II results - when the effectiveness of the drug is established firmly. I believe the parallel for Axion is when we have confirmation from either BMW, NSC, or perhaps a trucking company. Otherwise, we are still in the science project stage. Phase III for biotech is essentially one large final trial for the FDA approval, which could correspond to a fleet test announcement from BMV or more trains for NSC. At this stage, a mass commercialization is likely. 2013 should see some more institutional investment back into AXPW, with good results.

     

    Lead acid is also a proven market, so we should have no problems on that end. Nobody will have to worry about a hype-bust like Lithium.
    4 Dec 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • AP,

     

    Like the battery industry, the medical field is changing tremendously. Very few antibiotics are being developed. Many biotechs are developing "smart drugs," piggybacking on the body's ability to fight disease. It is an exciting area to invest in. I am hoping that Axion takes off before NBS. After is reaches a multiple of ten or better and begins to level off, I would like to invest in NBS.

     

    I only skimmed the article you linked. It is quite lengthy. The impression I come away with is that these professional investors are looking for guaranteed short term returns rather than the homerun. As a new investor I have learned how easy it is to be burned by a lot of hype surrounding a stock. I have learned a lot from this concentrator on being patient and doing due diligence.

     

    As the author pointed out, the lack of interest by big investors does lead to a lack of analysts' coverage. This of course leads to a total lack of info on new and small research companies. Thank you JP for the info you provide on Axion. Thanks to Maya for starting and APH for continuing this concentrator. Thanks to Bang for the storage of key info on one site. Thanks to everyone who provides info and market analysis.
    4 Dec 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • apm---I think the economist just didn't see it.

     

    In my experience, the pricing within some asset classes is extremely inefficient. The nano-cap mkt is one of those, especially if there is a story to tell that requires a lot of listening. Like for Axion. Thank goodness, or the price would already be so high there wouldn't be an excellent opportunity remaining.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • JCI's 5-5-5 plan.

     

    I guess since 5 year plans worked/work so well for the Soviet Union and China.

     

    Johnson Controls touts 'Midwest play' to build batteries of future

     

    "The goal of the joint center, is to deliver a much better battery within five years, she said.

     

    “We call it the 5-5-5,” Wright said. “Five times the energy density at a fifth of the cost, inside of five years.”"

     

    http://bit.ly/11zEYci

     

    And a MF article on the topic

     

    Johnson Controls Gets a Charge out of Batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/UdpOC6
    4 Dec 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco,

     

    So they are admitting that the EV battery is still at least 5 years away!!

     

    Sounds like Axion is in a very good position relatively speaking. By this time next year we could have batteries in five or six major markets.
    4 Dec 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Jveal, I'm guessing this is 5 years to proof of concept. Then you have to tool it and validate it. We all know about the validation cycle and how long that takes. This is ten years out before the consumer sees it and that's aggressive for the metrics targeted.

     

    5 years. Hmmm. What's the presidential election cycle?

     

    Anyway, This is more along the lines of basic research.
    4 Dec 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Yet another day consistent with our new world order. Which is to say, more normal behavior. Down on low volume, after up days on bigger volume.

     

    The biggest thorn remains the selling thru ATDF, after many months, still doing their clown car thing (midgets that just keep coming and coming).
    4 Dec 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • "... still doing their clown car thing (midgets that just keep coming and coming). "

     

    Mr. I, LOL.
    4 Dec 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • I thought it was a fitting image. {:^P

     

    I know it's small of me, too (ha), but sometimes making fun of stuff I don't like and can't control sure makes me feel better. Like watching tosh.o.
    4 Dec 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla was cash flow positive last week, CEO Musk says on TwitterFrom The Detroit News: http://bit.ly/R5Dy7r
    4 Dec 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • They probably stretched some payables.
    5 Dec 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • Indelco
    8,000 vehicles a year is, according to Elon, cash-flow-positive.
    As they announced 200 a week 10,000 annually at the beginning this is non-news. However as it is considered non-news the belief is that it is much more. perhaps 400 a week (20k a year or higher)

     

    While this is possible...
    There was an article out about an investigation into foreign made parts. Tesla used some time ago. I don't know if it really is anything. The author apparently contacted Tesla about it last Friday. My thought is Elon wanted to put out good news to limit the impact.
    Other wise Tesla should be producing 400+ cars a week from now on.
    How many they are putting out is a guess, but yesterday they reaffirmed 2,500 to 3,000 delivered this Q.
    With likely under 1,000 delivered Dec. 1. Even if the production side can make them fast enough, (400 a week for 3 weeks 1,200 with a week after for deliveries; will get them in the ball park for deliveries, I think) I doubt their delivery team is up to it.
    I did hear a rumor they were going to batch California cars so they get factory pick up, but I consider this a rumor at present.
    5 Dec 2012, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • Looks as if that investigation never was, the parameters did not apply to Tesla, and it's old news that someone decided to bring up at this point in time, for some reason....
    5 Dec 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks froggey77,

     

    They're working their way toward seeing how the rubber interfaces with the road. It will be interesting to see what unfolds.

     

    Their ramp isn't T fast but nor is their production process set up for that.
    5 Dec 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • I just ran across a rather recent presentation by Paula Walmet on activated carbon:
    http://bit.ly/TI1utQ

     

    Here's a link to her more germane Sandia paper for DOE on PbC batteries, et.al, where Axion gets a mention and Enders gets a copy:
    http://1.usa.gov/Ac9sGQ
    4 Dec 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Slides 11 and 12 of the Walmet presentation are worth taking a look at because they present a stylized view of what the structure of an activated carbon particle look like. Man-made carbons all have very uniform pore sizes with poor circulatory structures. Natural carbons have the structures nature put there in the first place.
    5 Dec 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • Confirmation that it was a "battery fire" at the Kahuku Wind project:

     

    (quote) in nearby Kahuku, First Wind's 12 turbines remain still, just like they've been since August, when a blaze tore through the facility's battery storage building. The fire destroyed the structure, but left behind unanswered questions.

     

    "We are still trying to find the root cause of the battery fire there we are hoping to get it back online as soon as possible and we are working with Hawaiian Electric to do so," said Kaluhiwa

     

    But that is expected to take another year.

     

    Until then, this will be Oahu's only working wind farm -- one that was built without a battery storage building.

     

    "The battery system fire in Kahuku was unique. Not having a battery system in Kawailoa we don't anticipate any fire incidents at this project," said Kaluhiwa.

     

    After a series of three fires at First Wind's Kahuku farm, additional work and technology also went in to make sure the newest production site would not only keep the electric grid stable it would also shield it from dangers.(unquote)

     

    Read more: http://bit.ly/11ATtMZ
    4 Dec 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Its that old "proven" thing again.

     

    Kahuku Wind Farm's battery storage system will be replaced with a D-Var System, a voltage regulation device made by American Superconductor that has proven wind farm experience.
    (This is secondary to the Xtreme Power fire)
    http://bit.ly/TNGKA5
    4 Dec 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Don't they still need batteries, that work ?
    This should be good opportunity for Vani to introduce himself, imo.
    5 Dec 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Speaking of storage for wind power, here is a great article from 2011 that some may have missed, as I did. It is directly applicable to the market for the PowerCube. It certainly reinforces teaching that JP has delivered here and it refers to the PJM real-time market.
    http://nyti.ms/YMX6Q4
    "Batteries at a Wind Farm Help Control Output

     

    . . .The economics can be likened to storing tap water in a solid gold vessel. While AES did not disclose the price of the wind farm or the battery installation, a company executive gave a nod when presented with an industry estimate that the batteries and related electronics cost in the range of $25 million. The supplier, A123 Systems, of Westborough, Mass., says future installations will use batteries developed for electric cars and will cost less.

     

    Yet the batteries perform two other tasks that the company hopes will turn a profit and pave the way for even bigger projects.

     

    Rather than store power on a daily basis, said John M. Zahurancik, vice president for operations and deployment at AES Energy Storage, the installation will earn its keep by storing energy for minutes at a time, over and over again.

     

    In the space of an hour, the output from the wind farm could go from 98 megawatts to zero. “In any short couple-minute interval, it could vary 20 or 30 or 40 percent,” Mr. Zahurancik said.

     

    The batteries will smooth out the changes so the rest of the grid can catch up, he said, making the electricity sold more valuable.

     

    The battery installation will also assist with a different kind of grid stabilization: trying to keep the alternating current system correctly synchronized. To keep the system as close to 60 cycles as possible, the regional grid operator, the PJM Interconnection, sends a signal every four seconds, asking for power to be added or withdrawn.

     

    Experts foresee other roles as the grid evolves. For example, PJM operates a real-time market in which electricity is priced in five-minute blocks. At a given location, the price from one block to the next can vary significantly.

     

    Mr. Hawkins of Kema said that a big battery array could make money in that market.

     

    “It’s kind of like being a day trader on Wall Street,” he said. “If you see a $30 price spread, you can make some interesting trades doing it over and over in the course of a day.”
    4 Dec 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Nice reminder, D Lane.

     

    Wonder how many solution providers are getting involved in this? Will we have a flood of competition, with the resulting narrowing of profit margins, or a trickle, or in-between?
    4 Dec 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Don't know if I'm leading or lagging but I laud you for the post. Good stuff.

     

    http://bit.ly/Vvcu2P
    5 Dec 2012, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mr I, yes. Another question is when will this market lead to meaningful sales?
    5 Dec 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks ii! Any thoughts regarding how a PowerCube compares to this D Var system as potential competing solutions?
    5 Dec 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like