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  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Good morning everyone.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    I was just checking this morning to see how long APH has been managing this site. He took over at APC 75!! Thanks APH!!
    5 Dec 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Jveal

     

    Would you like some company?
    5 Dec 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Sure RBrun357,

     

    I would also like a little uptick in the stock price. Some news from ePower or UL certification for the HUB would also be great.

     

    I'll have to be leaving my computer shortly and will have to depend on my cell phone notifications of price change.

     

    I just noticed the bid is back up to .31 after the last sale of .30.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    UL Cert should be Friday - lookin forward to Friday or more than likely Monday for a big announcement!
    5 Dec 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    I'm still hoping for Friday. It would be a nice B-day present. :-)
    5 Dec 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >Articula ... Aren't we also due for a trucking industry announcement in the PR world? Or did I (& the market) miss it?
    5 Dec 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I believe we are - but I hadn't heard a firm date like Tom mentioned for the UL certification.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking that next week will be our FUN week!
    5 Dec 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    just let go of 8kish (shares) at a small gain to buy some AERL. why does all my money come in bunches? i want BOTH.
    5 Dec 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    Given that we should be days away from (almost certainly positive) news on both the first trucking unit and the Hub UL approval, I'm holding on to my shares as tightly as I possibly can.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    :-) Holding tightly and bringing opportunity to attention of family and friends.

     

    On trucking developments, it may be nothing further is heard until the hybrid OEM decides to publicize which could be later this month or even next year. Axion, though, might announce delivery of one or more APUs to unnamed truck OEMs.

     

    Announcement of PowerCube sales or sight of NS 999 locomoting might be as probable as more trucking news.

     

    UL cert of the HUB is the development I believe most imminent.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    The most successful battery powered APU for the trucking market was created by Bergstrom and is called the NITE system. It has been adopted by the two largest class 8 OEM's (Freightliner and International) as a factory installed option. Factory installed options are rare so you get an idea of how important this is to the OEM's (EPA related maybe).

     

    http://bit.ly/TS0zXV

     

    Bergstrom is the leader in aftermarket battery powered APU. The core of their product is an efficient HVAC system that draws less power.

     

    http://bit.ly/XrdaGS

     

    It is my understanding that Axion is working with an OEM (I think Freightliner) to provide the power storage piece of the NITE system. That is, the batteries and electronics that would allow the PbC to be used in place of the AGMs that currently occupy that space.

     

    When an OEM allows a third party (Bergstrom) to provide a solution, I suspect there would be third party representation in engineering and production at the OEM. In other words, I suspect Bergstrom is very much aware of Axion and the PbC. If the PbC is successful there should be nothing to stop it from making its way to the other largest OEM (International) and aftermarket sales with the NITE system.

     

    Also, battery powered APU's are the most recent trend and fit well with the shore power offerings that are also trending. So, a win could go beyond Freightliner, International and NITE to other battery based APU systems. Here is a good starting point for your APU research...

     

    http://bit.ly/UfaxAK
    5 Dec 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    I spoke with ePower's CEO yesterday and they'll be testing the PbC equipped tractor this week before kicking off a three week road show to demonstrate the system for prospective customers.
    5 Dec 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Well they're not fooling around that's for sure.

     

    Can you request they do a drive by Altoona Works and beep the horn? Maybe even paint it green with Class 888 on the side! lol
    5 Dec 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tim. You're a class act!
    5 Dec 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Thanks for the update, I like the sounds of that.

     

    What are your thoughts regarding the time needed to fully show off the PbC's longevity? Three weeks may be enough to show the systems capabilities but not how long the batteries will actually last. Do you know what warranty they plan to provide for the batteries specifically?

     

    Thanks
    5 Dec 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    Thanks for the info.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    Not sure they are planning to release any but I look forward to photos of the ePower truck, especially the drivetrain and energy storage system.
    5 Dec 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    ap,

     

    I am in agreement with you, the additional 100k+ shares I bought below $.25 are stashed in my sock drawer!
    5 Dec 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I am really interested in the APU market, I would love to hear something from someone about that progress.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking is we were to do a new pole. The Axionistas would own a higher percentage of the float going into the next capital raise. I think this would be positive.
    5 Dec 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps brother Springer is up to calling for an update from Axionistas who have unreported or significantly changed positions?
    5 Dec 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    I've added about 25% shares since last investigation.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Taxpayers footing the bill for next generation of electric car batteries

     

    http://fxn.ws/VEhNcF
    5 Dec 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    After dropping $1.2 billion building the battery manufacturing cart the least the taxpayers can do is spend another $120 million to invent a battery technology horse. Granted it will be impossible to develop a technology horse that meets program goals and can be built in the taxpayer funded factories but think of all the jobs that will flow from building new factories to replace the obsolete ones.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    I think in round one the taxpayers got the fallout that lies between these to exercises. And it promotes growth so it's gotta be good.

     

    The next targets JCI is crowing about are a stretch for sure. I can hear the scientists now. (Ugh, He said what? Well at least we're workin!)
    5 Dec 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The fly in the ointment is that spiral wound devices run up against maximum theoretical energy densities in the 500 to 600 wh/kg range and JCI's stated goal is somewhere over 1,000 wh/kg. So if JCI succeeds in developing the battery of their dreams all spiral wound manufacturing facilities, including theirs, will be worthless.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    "Enderle says a better plan would be to focus on a specific goal, such as figuring out how to improve the energy grid for charging a growing number of EVs, or to invent a new wireless charging technology so the electric cars of the future don’t have to literally plug-in."

     

    Hmmm...sound familiar?
    5 Dec 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Well that will be peanuts compared to the capacity that would be displaced in the automotive sector worldwide if they achieve 5 5 5. But that would be phased out over time and only to some level far less than 100%.

     

    Maybe my children will see it someday.
    5 Dec 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7706) | Send Message
     
    "The fly in the ointment is that spiral wound devices run up against maximum theoretical energy densities in the 500 to 600 wh/kg range and JCI's stated goal is somewhere over 1,000 wh/kg."

     

    That's an interesting statement. What is the mechanism that limits cell density by shape?
    6 Dec 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    It's not shape, it's fundamental battery architecture. By the time you account for containers, current collectors, electrolytes and other chemically inactive components, there's only so many electrons that can be stored in a fraction of a kg of active material. All of the big energy density numbers you see floating around are for different chemistries and architectures.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Enderle article:

     

    Why the US government shouldn't invest in making batteries more powerful
    Posted on December 5, 2012 - 11:30 by Rob Enderle

     

    http://bit.ly/TUox3Y

     

    Warning: he also wrote this article:

     

    Why Microsoft's Surface Tablet is my new favorite device
    Posted on October 31, 201

     

    http://bit.ly/VyXZuS

     

    :-)
    6 Dec 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    RUNNING ON AIR…

     

    "SOCOMEC UPS AND PNU POWER AWARDED “INNOVATIVE POWER PRODUCT OF THE YEAR” AT THE ELECTRICAL INDUSTRY AWARDS 2012 FOR THEIR PIONEERING AIR DRUPS(TM) SYSTEM INSTALLED AT THE CO-OPERATIVE BANK."

     

    http://bit.ly/RCgRYE
    5 Dec 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Our old friends in the PbC "me too" business.

     

    UC sells stake in green market car technology company

     

    "Arcactive is focusing on negative electrodes for lead acid batteries for use in start/stop vehicles. The batteries enable automakers to be competitive and significantly improve fuel economy compared to the absorbed glass mat batteries."

     

    http://bit.ly/VEnS8R
    5 Dec 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    Arcactive is conducting R&D on a novel way to make high quality carbons that will be suitable for use in batteries. They're nowhere close to having a functional battery prototype.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Looks like they are trying to make a PbC battery with carbon nano-tubes instead of natural carbon. It will be interesting to see, if they succeed, and then to see if it infringes on Axion's patents. Oh, and of course, how much it costs to make.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    It would infringe on Axion's patents but I spoke to their research director at ELBC and he explained that they've given up on the carbon nanotube angle and are focused solely on making a quality carbon more cheaply.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    "Arcactive is focusing on negative electrodes for lead acid batteries for use in start/stop vehicles. The batteries enable automakers to be competitive and significantly improve fuel economy compared to the absorbed glass mat batteries"

     

    I don't know John. Sure reads like they are trying to produce their carbon tubes for a PbC competitor. They may not be going to challenge Axion directly, but unless they are hoping to replace coconuts in Axion's mix, this sure reads like they are trying to have a product for sale that either they, or someone else can use to try and make a PbC battery to compete with Axion's. Granted they are still in the research phase, so time will tell which way they really go.
    5 Dec 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    I spoke with them for an hour or so at ELBC. For now they're trying to scale up a laboratory-scale process for making a high quality carbon.
    5 Dec 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the clarification John.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Karima
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Do you guys seriously believe that we'll ever get good news from this company!!! I know TG and his team work as hard as they can but if I've learned one thing over the years, it's that everything always seems to take centuries more time than what should be. The "truck thing" was supposed to happen the week after the cc... We're 2 weeks down from that. The certification thing... well, like one person commented in the cc, they always take longer than they promise. So... so much for thinking it's going to happen this year. Yes, I'm extremely frustrated but, oddly enough, I'm still hoping that one day the dream will materialize because they do have a good hard working team and product.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    If you're looking for quick gratification then Axion is definitely not the right stock for you.

     

    The PbC is a disruptive new force in the battery industry and manufacturers are not going to embrace the technology until they've tortured it to excess in every imaginable way. The reason is simple. You don't risk customer satisfaction on a $40,000 product like a car for a $400 component like a battery. You take your time, test the hell out of the product and then have somebody else double and triple check your results. The process takes an extremely long time, like aging a fine wine, and if you try short-cuts you'll likely get vinegar.

     

    FWIW, I spoke with the CEO of ePower Engine Systems yesterday. The battery installation for the hybrid truck was delayed for a week because ePower blew out a bearing on their generator and had to replace it. The batteries were installed last week and the truck is being tested this week.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Appreciate the updates.
    5 Dec 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Karima
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Then... if the truck is on the road this week, how come there hasn't been any official news of this? Didn't TG say that he hoped the "press" would be there?

     

    As for a deal comming from BMW or big companies like that, I can very well understand it takes time. But... in this circumstance, we were talking about ONE truck and still it didn't come through in time... Even if Axion does everything right, it just seems that it never works out as planned by the other parties.

     

    I too had a 5 year perspective on this company but it very well appears this might easily become 10 years...
    6 Dec 2012, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    You know we see this all the time. New user pops up as the price starts to rise and builds a wall of worry for everyone to see. No Bio but claims to be a long time buyer or follower. Now, this is an open forum and you may do as you like as long as you behave yourself. The one thing that I would ask you not to do is that period ellipsis thing that I am so fond of doing...
    6 Dec 2012, 04:48 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Karima,
    Geez, be realistic. This isn't TV. Everything doesn't happen immediately. The trucking shows are coming up soon, lets wait and see what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if they only have a booth at the truck shows this year to get the word out, then next year a truck with 120k miles on it to prove the point. We here know how hard it is to go from concept to product, they have had to build a very complex system of components of which we are an important but small part. Don't you want to see the proof of concept before counting your eggs? Take a deep breath and relax, this is going to take off, but in it's own sweet time. Our own unrealistic expectations are our worst enemy right now. IMHO
    6 Dec 2012, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    Tom didn't say anything about the press being anywhere. I don't expect a press release from Axion until ePower completes preliminary performance testing this week. Suggesting that the hybrid truck project was delayed or is somehow a disappointment is just plain silly. It makes you sound like the trolls on Brand X.

     

    The automakers are going to complete their work when they complete their work. It may be five years from the start of testing in 2009 to the first design win in a 2014 MY vehicle, but throwing out a ten year number is, once again, just plain silly.

     

    With no bio and three comments - all of them negative and grounded in vague fear - I'd be willing to bet that the host is hovering over his WAT button.
    6 Dec 2012, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    WAT = "Whack-A-Troll"? I love it!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    "blew out a bearing on their generator and had to replace it. "

     

    What if anything should we read into that? I have no idea what it takes in time of time or money to fix that, or whether for example for "real production" that indicates one (or more?) parts may need to be upgraded. Further along the line, what might the maintenance schedule and costs be on these vehicles?

     

    Obviously we're still very early in the process, and testing is required and normal to figure out things like this. But given our "luck" in these kind of things, it wouldn't be a surprise to have our patience tested here as well. So the Axion management may want to give some careful thought to just how much they PR the project and raise near term investor expectations. I note the ZBB management reputation was significantly eroded just due to delays in UL certification way beyond what they led their shareholders to believe. Our on PowerCube experience was not stellar in terms of proper investor expectations.

     

    Also wonder what ePower's management real world, hard knocks experience is ... and how it might affect what we will and should hear from them, and how we should interpret it. I've got my grain of salt at the ready :-)
    6 Dec 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    wt,
    My thinking is that it could have been a defective part from the manufacturer; especially when failing at such an early stage. I've had a couple of occassions where I've had replaced a broken part on my car (i.e. distributor) where the new part was defective. Causes the mechanic to have a fit when after installing the new part the problem continues and then after two further hours of testing he realizes the new part is defective.
    6 Dec 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Karima
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    He didn't? Then I probably misread: "Our batteries, 52 in all are scheduled to go into a rebuilt vehicle in the next several days. I hope the press is here. And that vehicle is scheduled to be on the road hauling freight by the end of November. We will see real world application results by the end of 2012." What press was he talking about?

     

    Anyway, it's just frustration speaking. I'm sonrisa777 and I couldn't figure out how to use that username again since it's been quite a while.. I can see Axion trying really hard to get customers it just seems like even if everyone seems to recognize how good it is, no one ever really "buys" it. Let's hope this truck thing works out quicker than all the other attempts.

     

    I also hope that I was wrong about the URL certification and that we will get it when it was promised...
    6 Dec 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    WTB> The generator is an off the shelf item from Marathon. It blew a bearing while under warranty and Marathon repaired it. There was and is no drama.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: "Further along the line, what might the maintenance schedule and costs be on these vehicles?".

     

    I've already been thinking of this too. Got me to wondering if ePower is looking down the road, ~2 years, to when CPST will have the new micro-turbines out for testing. With the austinetic materials, CFD-designed turbine and combustion chamber, there is lower cost and higher output. The same 1-year maintenance of only a filter change (no lubricants) and checking for wear with a 40K+ hours time to rebuild might make an attractive proposition.

     

    I've been thinking the C-200 (to become the C-250 with the new version) might be a good fit. There'll also be a C-370 (compound version with low and high pressure circuits) that should perform very well in the extremes of altitude/temperature.

     

    I don't have any idea if the price-points would be in range, but if they are the multi-fuel capability or ability to be factory configured to run on diesel or NG (for lower operational cost) should be a good fit too.

     

    Depending on route profile and battery capacity chosen, something along the size of a C-65 might be suitable too.

     

    But that's for the future, if it *appears* to have potential - right now I'm sure the MTs are too expensive and the lead-time for implementing such a solution would throw everything too far into the future.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    wtb--well said.

     

    Bringing a new product to market is hard. I expect it to take twice as long as expected. I don't know how many years ePower has been perfecting their system but even with the PbC advantage, there are bound to be setbacks.

     

    Plus, I'm still trying to make sense of how they expect such huge mpg gains without a lot of stops and starts to take advantage of regen.

     

    Does anyone know how many cylinders the engine ePower is using has?
    6 Dec 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    "I hope the press is here."

     

    Unless one's name is Bill Clinton, the meaning of "is" is clear. The comment was made during the Q3 conference call and indisputably pertained to there and then, not a future point in time.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    I had missed the "I hope the press is there" quip from the CC and apologize for my error. I do believe, however, that there are big differences between an expression of hope and a statement of intent, particularly when the ball is in somebody else's court.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    I don't know how long they've been working on this, but Johh wrote this back in concentrator 175:
    "I'm pretty sure the project they're referring to is one I sent their way a couple years ago. It's a true series hybrid Class 8 tractor – http://bit.ly/MSNg6E

     

    It uses a small turbo diesel genset (±200 hp) backed by 50 batteries for (a) acceleration between 25 and 65, and (b) hill climbing. The original used AGM batteries, but they had lots of failure problems. The tractor would be no fun in the rockies, but there's a lot of places where terrain wouldn't be an issue"

     

    From thos comments I have to assume that ePower has been working on this for several years now, though have just recently switched from AGM batteries to Axion's PbCs.
    6 Dec 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Not familiar with Marathon (other than oil), but it seems they're international.

     

    http://bit.ly/TM8rtF

     

    Where do they rank among generator sources?

     

    Random Google search (means nothing) didn't list them:

     

    http://bit.ly/QK21xO

     

    "Generator" perhaps being a too generic term ...

     

    My guess is that trucks are an even more demanding environment than autos, so just wondering. Obviously there's always cost benefit analysis to be done during parts selection and the biggest boys don't always make the best product ... or we wouldn't be here reading!

     

    EDIT: This source calls them one of the top 4 in the world:
    http://bit.ly/VIYOxw
    6 Dec 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    I just posted an article on ePower at Altenergystocks and uploaded a copy of their technical presentation to my dropbox – http://bit.ly/11IdLUT
    6 Dec 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    Excellent article, JP!
    6 Dec 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    wt,
    They belong to Beloit Regal who will have about 3 billion in sales this year and is profitable. Marathon has been producing since 1913, so seem to be well established in the market.

     

    website: http://bit.ly/VmAFe2
    6 Dec 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    Hi Sonrisa. I think we have (or had, if you sold out) a mutual interest in Tekmira. GLTU.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Karima
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    I'm a long time believer of Axion and follower of John Petersen.
    5 Dec 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    I'm almost giddy. I knew sooner or later we'd have to have that all important first re-test of .30c... we did today and it passed with flying colors.

     

    I know everyone is worried about .33c and .35c (the last placement), but the (first) successful re-test of .30c is more important in my mind. Furthermore, I think it supports the theory that the big ugglies are down to a puddle (if that). Once support is firmly established, the new resistance lines will prove to be ephemeral, IMHO.

     

    It's getting interesting!!!
    5 Dec 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    [Xtreme Power] Fire at wind farm blamed on fire department’s lack of response

     

    Published 7:55 AM HST Dec 05, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/TRiJbv
    5 Dec 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Ah, I see. It was the fire department's fault that their batteries caught on fire! Makes perfect sense. <LOL>

     

    "Honolulu Fire Department spokesman Capt. Terry Seelig was quick to counter Gotcher's assertion that firefighters failed to act in the best interest of the wind farm. He said the flames, toxic chemicals and unstable nature of the burning warehouse made it unsafe to use water, and deploying hand-held extinguishers was nearly impossible.
    "It was a bigger fire than you'd be able to control with any small extinguisher," Seelig told reporters. "The fire was well developed by the time we got there."
    5 Dec 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    No fire department in their right mind fights an unknown chemical or combustible plastics fueled fire in an unattached building that is no threat to human life or additional property. They stand off and wet down anything close enough to be ignited by sparks or IR radiation and wait for the fuel to be exhausted.

     

    To bad about the battery farm. Maybe a good fire suppression system needs to be part of the price quote. That would do bad things for the $/kWh of the system!
    5 Dec 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    SiHB, Exactly. Already had two prior fires and no automatic fire suppression system in a building housing millions of dollars of critical equipment.

     

    The spokesperson for Xtreme is is playing the Fisker card. Like when they blamed their first car fire on the owner. Just foolish.
    5 Dec 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... I was interested to learn Xtreme Power has 14 wind farm installations (Axion = 0, none anticipated). I guess there are advantages to companies that participate in projects with investing partners like GE, Flour, Dow, Duke, Dominion, BP & POSCO.... Sigh!

     

    I can only hope another battery company I know can garner such corporate interest, but I'm guessing being private is an advantage here.
    5 Dec 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    Question for engineers & other technically knowledgeable.

     

    TG reported in Q2 CC that BMW had initiated independent, 3rd party testing of PbCs to confirm-challenge testing results by Axion & BMW.
    What quantity of batteries might be sufficient for 3rd party verification testing?
    5 Dec 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Probably ZERO. In my experience with 3rd party verification the process is a review of methodology used by the client and to evaluate the data returned is within the norms, not the product. They are looking for outliers & oversights. They will report back any error found and recommendations for further testing in areas of weakness. It can take quite a while.
    5 Dec 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, DR. Quite interesting (to say the least).
    5 Dec 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... I should have really spelled out the purpose of 3rd party verification better in my post above. That purpose is to take the data provided and check it as I stated above, but further, the goal is to see if the same performance assumptions & conclusions are reached via a "blind", disinterested party. It is the same process commonly called "peer review".
    6 Dec 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    DR, thanks again. The response given was more than adequate to narrow my vast zone of ignorance and to guide me away from further thought of BMW activity explaining the Q2 surge in apparent PbC sales.

     

    Non-toll contract revenues of $660K were reported with no service activity indicated. Allowing ~$100K of 16V race car and 12V "legacy" battery sales thru TurboStart, the non-toll revenues suggest around 1,200 PbC battery sales when 300 - 400 per quarter is far more typical. If likely not sold to BMW, that surge in PbC sales could reflect uptake by the Asian auto OEM and/or the unnamed "other" rail OEM mentioned in conference calls.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    I have wondered if "third party testing" means replication of results, rather than independent review of data. If it is independent review of data, similar to "peer review" of scientific articles, then it should not take as long as if they must actually repeat the experiments with similar parameters to replicate the results with a new set of independent data.

     

    In the medical world, the peer review process is just the first step in publicizing experimental results. One study, by itself, may not convince clinicians that the results are valid and generalizable to the real world. We like to see independent experimental replication, by a different group of researchers, to believe that particular results are real, and not just a statistical fluke (or bad experimental design and execution, or actual fraud). This is what comes to my mind when I hear "third party testing."

     

    For example, FDA often requires more than a single study to document that a drug or device is safe and effective. If two different independent studies, with similar designs, but conducted in different settings by different researchers, come to the same conclusion, then they can have greater confidence that the results are valid and generalizable to the studied population.

     

    Does anybody know if BMW's "third party testing" involves an independent review of data vs a complete replication of the experimental results?
    6 Dec 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    TG said they expected the third party confirmation to take six months. With that kind of time frame I'd expect more than a review of the data and less than a complete recreation of the tests.

     

    For independent experimental replication, I think we'll need to await word on the accelerated testing the Asian automaker launched based on the strength of the BMW data. With a little luck, that word is only a month or two away.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >SMaturin ... My experience with 3rd party review is only in semiconductors & mechanical systems designs. I can well imagine many sectors requiring more stringent reviews. Even so, further testing of product is done when results of data don't match up or possibly point to defective test procedure & physical materials weakness, but corrective action is usually done by the originator of the review (proprietary concern). Both routes are possible so I can't answer your question.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    12/05/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog.

     

    NO UPDATED CHARTS THERE YET. 11/28-12/4 STATS THERE W/O COMMENTARY.

     

    # Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19003, Vol 284222, AvTrSz: 4737
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3199, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3105
    # Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19003, Vol 284222, AvTrSz: 4737
    Buy:Sell 1:2.25 (30.8% “buys”), DlyShts 20766 (7.31%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.55%

     

    Glad to see that price is behaving as expected: hit resistance at $0.32 (I called $0.32-$0.33 range as likely). Since my last post, we've seen highs of $0.30, $0.2899, $0.296, $0.32, $0.3189 and $0.3199. The lows have held up reasonably well too: 0.262, $0.275, $0.28, $0.2931, $0.3095 and $0.30. During this period volume has been trending down, in thousands: 379, 231, 109, 315, 167 and 284. With price compression and reducing volume, we have a typical “consolidation” going on. While this has been happening, the VWAP has been generally trending upwards: $0.2874, $0.2793, $0.2917, $0.3089, $0.3112 and $0.3105.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff continues to support exhaustion of “big sellers”, if that has any meaning, and smaller average trade sizes seem also to support this thesis.

     

    My experimental inflection point calculations (updated charts not posted yet) suggest the end of the up trend that started 11/12 and price should begin to flatten out now. Everything but the five-day is still above zero though. But all are rolling over to head to, or below, zero again.

     

    “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted from the concentrator.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Dec 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    He's back!
    5 Dec 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: Not until I can update charts too! Likely around the 14th. I can see 'em here, but don't want to load even more software on my sis's old Mac to do charts. And don't want to load them as eight separate charts, which I could do right now, that folks would have to "click to enlarge".

     

    It was great to hear that ePower has an early test going. "Blowing a bearing"? Good grief Charlie Brown - can't anybody catch a break?

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3336) | Send Message
     
    OT, but couldn't resist..

     

    http://bit.ly/Vy1ZvO

     

    Looks like what we need here is to include a different kinda SCRAM option..
    (Stuck Cord Rescue Axe Man)
    6 Dec 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    And the problems begin.
    6 Dec 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    In fairness, Tesla's launch has been remarkably problem free so far. The real test will be having several thousand cars in the hands of normal people who use them as daily drivers instead of low mileage toys.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Even simple systems have glitches. I can see why they didn't want the owner fooling with it. Better to analyze and fix it now vs when you have 5k in the field.

     

    BTW, That would have been one heck of a photo op if it happened at one of their "Quick charge" stations! lol
    6 Dec 2012, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    It does bring up a real issue I've wondered about for the Model S, i.e. will anyone buy them outside of California, since there wouldn't be anyone close by to fix problems with the car. When it's a rich person, who's buying one to add to his collection of toys it's easy to just take another vehicle. But if you are buying this car to drive on a daily basis, you have to wonder how you will get service for it if something goes wrong.
    6 Dec 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, They have some other service locations. But it's not like Chevy or Toyota dealers for convenience. And you're not going to take them to a corner garage other than for maybe tires and safety inspections. Well maybe not safety inspections either! You are tied to them with the annual service fee.

     

    http://bit.ly/QK42Ku
    6 Dec 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    They also have stated and ti the best of my knowledge not retracted the statement that if you so much as have your tires rotated at another place you void your warranty.

     

    Which is illegal BTW.
    I found the law a few months ago but I forget the name.
    6 Dec 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Thanks froggey, Interesting. Seems like they are trying to lock in some good service business. Some good intentions I'm sure. But perhaps some not so good.
    6 Dec 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7706) | Send Message
     
    I think they will sell a few outside of CA:
    http://bit.ly/UF59we
    7 Dec 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, it's true. The left coast has no monopoly on vanity and foolishness.
    7 Dec 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    There are plenty of vain foolish people in New York too.
    7 Dec 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    "..plenty of vain foolish people in New York too. "

     

    Let us not overlook the creme de la creme of vain foolishness in DC.
    7 Dec 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    Try zooming the map in a bit to get a sense of the density of Tesla reservations on a state by state basis.

     

    The densest cluster in North America looks like the LA region. Next densest to my eye is the DC region, followed by Boston. No surprises, there. NYC seems less dense, and more spread across the tristate region of NJ, suburban NY and CT, which is no surprise either. Folks living in Manhattan are less likely to own vanity automobaubles than wealthy commuters. They are also very unlikely to have a private garage where they could plug their toy in at night.

     

    I was rather surprised to see that my town had no Tesla reservations tagged to it. There are lots of expensive sports cars and imported SUV's zooming around upper Westchester.
    7 Dec 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    I'm just wondering what the guy in Alaska is going to do when his charger gets stuck. It is going to be a pain in the neck for some owners to get their vehicle serviced 500 miles away. Not to mention in Alaska where according to Tesla's site there are no service centers.
    7 Dec 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    SMartin

     

    "...followed by Boston. No surprises, there."
    As a Bostonian, I should have expected to be in the top 5. (argh!)
    Governor Patrick (MA) can utilize the subsidized Cape Wind project to "fuel" the subsidized TSLA.
    As if MA doesn't have enough problems a la Chicago with more politicians under investigation and others going to jail.

     

    BUT...we're "going green."...right!
    7 Dec 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    magounsq,
    Too bad we can't have a nation wide epidemic of politicians under investigation and going to jail. Might resurrect the meaning of the rule of law ( instead of ruling the law). ;-)
    8 Dec 2012, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    Next radical idea you guys are going to start espousing is government of by and for the people. Sheesh!
    8 Dec 2012, 04:24 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Does that make us progressive radical activists?;-)
    8 Dec 2012, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    Either that or reactionary revolutionaries.
    8 Dec 2012, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7706) | Send Message
     
    So I guess everyone here is driving a used Yaris or something? I mean why would anyone spend one cent more beyond basic transportation? As for foolishness, compared to other vehicles in it's price class the S is the only one that provides massively discounted refueling.
    8 Dec 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >jrp3 ... a Yaris? I'm the proud owner of a Toyota Tercel. It's paid for and gets 45 miles (40 miles combined). I bought it because I just needed to get from A to B. I've been waiting for the technology to improve enough to make sense not to just keep it. I could afford one of your beloved Model S but the economics (that calender limited upfront payment on fuel I may never use) & limited range make no sense to me. Add in one of my best childhood friends experience with a Tesla Roadster, which he is joyful about getting rid of, and I'm not too keen on all electric BEV yet.
    8 Dec 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    I sold my car in 2005 and take the bus. Or walk. I rent my parking spot out to a commuter.
    8 Dec 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if there will come a day when some of us will be checking this for clues!

     

    Hotel Roanoke's RailCam draws viewers from around world
    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    December 05, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/TJDlVJ

     

    Please (one person) let me know if it works for you ... tried it on an old slow system and it didn't (as indicated in the article)

     

    See also:

     

    Altoona Live Scanner and ATCS Feeds

     

    http://bit.ly/TU5vKV
    6 Dec 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    "Hotel Roanoke's RailCam draws viewers from around world
    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    December 05, 2012"

     

    Fascinating read. Interest level is certainly far beyond anything that would have occurred to me. (Cam did not work for me either.)
    6 Dec 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    Works fine for me in Chrome (I had to install Windows Media Player extension, but Chrome's drag and drop hassle-free installation made me a very happy Windows user!)
    6 Dec 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    This works for me
    http://bit.ly/TI4vgH

     

    Apple with Firefox and Safari.
    It did take a moment to load.
    6 Dec 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Mining companies (BHP, Glencore, Vale, Codelco, etc.) use large dump trucks (Cat., Komatsu, Liberth, etc.) that are equipped with a generator and an electric motor at each wheel.
    I think it's a similar concept to ePower and can turn off the generator when the dump truck is going down in the mine and used batteries in the descent. Fuel savings and pollution.
    Just a thought.-Carlos
    6 Dec 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: they tried to work, but both said "this page asks to use a plugin that can only run in 32-bit mode", in Firefox.

     

    I clicked on "Restart in 32-bit mode" and the railcam started working.

     

    I wasn't sure what to click on the Altoona site though, so haven't checked that one.

     

    All this on my sis's old MAc.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    ePower’s Series Hybrid Electric Drive – Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks

     

    http://bit.ly/yE6bt4
    6 Dec 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Thanks for the article. Clarifies my thinking on what ePower Engines is doing. We, here in the shop, have been knoodling (subject to us being completely wrong) about configurations and came up with 2 motors, similar to UQM "PowerPhase HD Select 200", coupled with a 250 hp genset & 50 hp of battery could/probably/might deliver 460 to 500 hp to the wheels. That is more torque (253k ft/lb) to the wheels than Tim Enright's 550 hp diesel because the ICE delivers its torque to the transmission. Still might not be a mountain climber (electrical power duration is problematic) but should start & maintain speed on any legal load short of the Rockies.

     

    This could be a winner. Yea!!!
    6 Dec 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    More importantly, it could be a winner that bypasses anal retentive OEMs and goes directly to the guys who would give their eye teeth to save 11,500 gallons of fuel a year.

     

    Be sure to download ePower's technical presentation. It's a high level overview, but well worth the time.

     

    http://bit.ly/11IdLUT
    6 Dec 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Thanks for providing the article and updating all on ePower's strategy over the next few months.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John.

     

    That article explains why TG hoped that the press would take note of ePower's progress. It is really significant for Axion.

     

    If they can start delivering retrofitted trucks using PbC batteries to fleets in January, that will be very positive news going into the next round of financing.

     

    Reporting on the first week of data of the PbC-equipped truck in December should be very beneficial news as we approach year end, as we can expect the PbC performance to be orders-of-magnitude better than the previous AGM equipment, and this will highlight that fact in a real world setting.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Nice article John. The whole thing seems far too straightforward to work. I mean a solution based on fuel and real money savings vs government tax credits...naw...never work.
    6 Dec 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    :-) These ePower guys look like real trouble makers out to deprive State and federal governments of their just highway fuel tax entitlements.

     

    Tim, do you feel someone painting a target on you for higher vehicle registration fees?
    6 Dec 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    The ePower technical presentation is intriguing. Approximately 150,000 to 170,000 trucks per year passing from five years old into ePower's target market plus the already existing 1,000,000 trucks in that market.

     

    The PbC seems initially to be well suited to this market having a cost advantage plus being able to handle more temperature extremes than li-on; while having a better cycle life and being near the same cost as AGM.

     

    I like that ePower is building patent protection around their product. Also liked that they are mentioning Europe as a target market. Checked the price of diesel in Kansas and the cheapest price in Kansas is $3.69. So payback if get the announced mpg figures would be about 19-20 months.
    6 Dec 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (890) | Send Message
     
    John-

     

    Thanks for the info on this. I haven't spoken to my father since 2007 and he doesn't know that both his mother and father have passed, the fact that he has two grandsons and a third on the way. However, I did send him a note as he is an owner/operator of his own OTR truck, in his new life, and when I was a kid he was meticoulous in tracking mpg and keeping care of his car. I assume he's doing the same now. A program where he could save $30k annually would maybe allow him to pay some people back and change his ways. I doubt it but a son has dream.
    6 Dec 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Diesel here in south-west France works out to $5.28 per gallon.
    6 Dec 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks for the research and the subsequent article. Stellar work as always.

     

    Did ePower happen to mention how they were handling the BMS and the different voltage discharge characteristics when they swap storage units between AGM and PbC? Also any mention of possible DCA advantages of PbC such as during certain levels of downhill grades?

     

    Perhaps proprietary but I have to ask! :)
    6 Dec 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    Axion has apparently been working with ePower for several months on BMS and power management issues and like the battery boxes, the control hardware is pretty easy to swap out.

     

    The ePower team is really looking forward to the higher DCA of the PbC because like NS, the recuperative braking loads were very tough on their AGM batteries.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. That's directionally what I thought.

     

    BTW, The 2 dimensional layout only shows 42 batteries. Are some of them stacked two tiers in the same footprint or are they placed elsewhere (Or maybe an old block diagram for AGM?)? Do you know if these are the larger format batteries like in the PC?
    6 Dec 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    I think the schematic may be out of date because yesterday Andy mentioned two layers of batteries in each box. Since they've always focused on readily available components, I think they've used a 30 HT case size.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Good stuff. If the numbers pan out sounds like ePower has a real winner for many fleet operators. I still think they need to do an Altoona drive by. LOL

     

    PS It is nice to have a lower cost app where trial and error post a good design is the correct path to control costs.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Awesome article, John. Awesome product.

     

    I like ePower's long history of IP protection and multiple patents.

     

    iindelco's idea of an Altoona drive-by sounds good to me!
    6 Dec 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The big variable will be battery life. ePower wants a minimum of two years but they're hearing that five is more likely with the PbC. Given the similarities between the applications, I think that much of the experience Axion accumulated with NS may have a very high degree of portability.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    Some States already charge you for running by the mile (Oregon as an example) instead of fuel taxes.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    so can we lid the price til monday, then i get some more cash into my accounts?
    6 Dec 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    Just give your broker an I.O.U....
    6 Dec 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    Regarding battery life, 5 years when they want a minimum of two sounds nice.
    5 years is lower than I would have expected however, given the lack of sulfation. By comparison, ultracaps tout 10 year life in a hybrid bus and NimH and L-ion last 6-8 in a hybrid bus.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The battery powered locomotive and presumably the hybrid truck are very heavy duty applications. The PbC is an order of magnitude stronger than AGM but its not bulletproof. At this stage in the game it's far better to promise five and deliver ten than to promise more than you deliver.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    Still, that is a fascinating bit of info. Thanks.
    6 Dec 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    Above you asked about who could be buying the PbC albeit in small quantities. I remind you of the GM government grant testing program. What I don't understand is why GM is being so quiet on the use of the PbC in their mild hybrid. If it works in a truck it sure should work in a car. I realize that it is a different drivetrain but still. Why haven't they released any info on this mild hybrid system?
    6 Dec 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Mrh,
    Sometimes, I am absolutely intrigued that an investment website, that specializes in stockholders that are losing money, can bring out true life stories that transcend investments. Thanks for that. I hope your Dad listens.
    6 Dec 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    MrH, could be the catalyst that might lead to him not having to work so hard. It is a brutal business and its not getting any easier...
    6 Dec 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    I find it interesting that Daimler Trucks, Freighliner's parent, has been working on the DOE super truck program since 2010 - slide 7.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    he won't take em for stocks <5$ :(
    7 Dec 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    Regarding ePower's fuel savings numbers,
    I do worry that they are too good to be true. If the numbers are accurate why hasn't this been done before by someone else?

     

    Yes, the PbC gives them an edge but the numbers they provide are pre-PbC.

     

    It could be as simple as the fact that everyone else was/is too focused on lithium batteries and all of the dead-ends there. . .

     

    It could be that bigger companies have too much to lose and are still researching their solutions. Or some combination of all of that and more.

     

    But I do wonder.
    7 Dec 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    I think it may be as simple as a difference in perspectives and goals.

     

    ePower started out wanting to move a load from Point A to Point B using the smallest amount of fuel possible. They didn't care whether their idea would work for everybody as long as it had significant value for some.

     

    Everybody else starts out trying to build a marketable product and then tries to improve economy without sacrificing performance.
    7 Dec 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John.

     

    The other thing is that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a series hybrid is the solution for stop-and-go driving. A parallel hybrid is generally favored for driving with less stops. For example, this from a Volvo bus press release:

     

    "Hybrid technology is well suited for vehicles with many starts and stops, perfect for buses in heavy city traffic. The advantage with the parallel hybrid technology, that Volvo has chosen, is that the buses also operate well in suburban traffic with less frequent halts at bus stops. The reason is the mechanical coupling between the diesel engine and the driveshaft. With this, the inefficiency in converting from mechanical power to electrical and back again is avoided."

     

    The ePower solution turns that conventional wisdom on its head.

     

    I'm hoping the "trade secrets" noted on their presentation may be quite a big deal.
    7 Dec 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    Thank you. Great and informative article.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    John: Wonderful article. I shared it with the folks I encouraged to get into the stock and concluded with, "I think this is when things start to get fun."

     

    I'm particularly pleased that with the road show taking place in December that info on new orders will likely be available before the next capital raise. Clearly it would be in Axion's interest to wait a few more weeks than it normally might if that is needed. With the Hub UL, Hub sales and maybe some info on idle elimination and a possible powercube sale, I am no longer worried that Axion is going to have to sell 50m shares to get $9m in new capital.

     

    All in all, I think this is my personal turning point.

     

    DRich: Thanks for your info on the max HP. I like that the driver will have access to the same or better HP when he needs it. That will go a long way to making it popular with drivers.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3336) | Send Message
     
    In the technical presentation I found this quote:

     

    "In 2007 Class 8 trucks in the
    U.S. drove 128.4 Billion miles for an average of 45,000 miles and consumed $2.46 Billion in diesel fuel."

     

    to be confusing WRT to the math.... must be a typo in there somewhere:

     

    128 billion miles at ~6 miles a gallon = like 20 billion gallons of diesel (right?) and at ~3 bucks a gallon.... should be like 60 billion dollars in diesel fuel not $2.46 Billion.... Am I missing something? Anyone else know how to square this? Obviously, it's kind of a minor error, but it appears at least twice in the presentation and seems funny that it would have escaped notice until now..
    6 Dec 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    ePower's fuel use calculation appears to be off by an order of magnitude. The EIA says freight trucking used 4.95 quadrillion BTUs last year, or roughly 38 billion gallons of fuel.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3336) | Send Message
     
    38 billion gallons is like what, $150 Beelion dollars right there... Mama Mia, Thatsa lotta skittles! ;)

     

    Also, from the diagram it looks like two separate drive motors (at 150Hp each?) one for each drive axle... is that our best understanding?
    6 Dec 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    If you want to play with scary numbers multiply $20,000 per truck by 1% of a million trucks. Then pick a low market penetration percentage you're comfortable with, perhaps the 4% penetration of HEVs in the automotive market.

     

    I think ePower is only using one drive motor in front of a split differential.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    If I did the math right, that means Axion can become a billion dollar company on 4% market penetration of hybrid trucks alone.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3336) | Send Message
     
    Oh, I see, duh. clearly the diagram shows that. don't know what the heck I was thinking when I posited the two motor question. please, everyone... nevermind.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    John - looks we are starting to do some number-firming by some of the folks: my below stated guesstimate of .39 mbbl/d for truck diesel is what, some 5.9 billion gallons per year at $4 is $24 billion a year? Just for some of the OTR hybrid trucks.

     

    Nov 25 11:40 AM | 5 Likes |Report Abuse |Link to Comment Axion Power: A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward [View article]

     

    John - a back of the envelope set of calculations for each of your mentioned PbC applications with a stretch indicates that with crude at $100/bbl, reductions in crude of 2.5 million bbl/day would put nearly $100 billion annually into the pockets of US consumers - what an economic stimulus that would be.

     

    Diesel (of 4.5 million bbl/day consumed):

     

    1. Loco: 10% reduction from 88 mil bbl/yr = .24 mbbl/d.
    (including switchyard battery and OTR locos)

     

    2. Trucks: 100% of idle at 665 mil. gallons/d = 0.24 mbbl/d.

     

    3. Trucks: 40% of OTR hybrid transport = 0.39 mbbl/d.

     

    Gasoline (of 9 million bbl/d consumed).

     

    4. ICE S/S: 30% of vehicles at 5% red. = .14 mbbl/d.

     

    5. Small bat.Hybrids: 30% of veh.at 50% red. = 1.4 mbbl/d.

     

    and the stretch is Jet Fuel (at 1.5 million bbl/day consumed).

     

    6. e-Taxi(WheelTug): 5% red. from 1.5 mbbl/d = 0.08 mbbl/d.

     

    There is the seed; now to the refinement of the numbers by others on both or all sides of the arguments.

     

    Nov 22 04:01 PM | 9 Likes |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
    6 Dec 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Just an FYI for folks watching today: a quick glance at the charts last night suggested that if we do a normal "reversion to the mean", which is quite common across almost all stocks I watch, we *could* see $0.27-$0.28 without having to become concerned. It's part of a normal consolidation (and a grind up which I've about given up on - too impatient?) as we have waves up and retrace a bit before the next wave up.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    i expect 30 to offer more resistance, but i am hopeful we break and spook come monday: see above ;)
    6 Dec 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    We held above .30c yesterday. It'll be interesting to see if we close above it again today. Lots of volume today!
    6 Dec 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    O.R: I'm pulling for a Fibonacci 31.8%(?) as a potential low point on the re-trace. But I've not seen that happen as often as just a "come back to the middle", the Fib 50%.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    roger.
    6 Dec 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    BTW: we are on the 5th day above the 50-day SMA, $0.2848, ATM. The 50 has taken the first step in starting a rise and looks able to continue increasing the rate of rise for at least 7 days or so. With the 200-day SMA in decline, and likely to continue for some time, a "golden cross" seems to be on the horizon, but I've not tried to estimate time of arrival - it doesn't seem really close unless/until the 50 goes parabolic.

     

    I'm thinking a catalyst will happen before the "golden cross" though, based on what John's passed on and the comments in the CC.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    My 10-day VWMA ($.2915) moved up through my 50-day VWMA ($.2849) today. With the 100-day at $.2979 it may fall tomorrow.

     

    My averages are probably a bit cruder than yours because I round to the nearest penny, things are heading in the right direction.

     

    Right now I'm showing the 200-day VWMA at $.3347 and falling by about $.0005 per day. It's as tight a spread as I've seen in a while.
    6 Dec 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP, the Epower conversion seems like a no-brainer to me for the -4 yr -9 yr segment. and ,, it needs less shifting.

     

    I would imagine there may be a hick-up or two , and we may find out soon enough, but the plan looks solid.

     

    If the results are as stated,, this will be an amazing avalanche.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Braille Battery. Fitting name.

     

    I'm at 10 years pretty much right now with an AGM SLI battery. Not that I think this is the norm.

     

    Is there a lightweight, long-lasting car battery in your future?

     

    "The negatives:
    The U1R part of its name indicates the new battery's group size in battery speak, meaning that for now the technology will only be available for cars that require that size. Essentially, that means it is suited just to Mazda MX-5 owners. The company says more sizes are coming soon.

     

    That, and the retail cost is a $549."

     

    http://bit.ly/SQq6RL
    6 Dec 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting, iind. I wonder how environmental management is needed by that Li-ion battery and what its operating range is without an environment control system.
    6 Dec 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv. I'll need to see if I can find a spec sheet. You've peaked my interest on the operational temp range.
    6 Dec 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4716) | Send Message
     
    2:36 PM A123 (AONE) should see at least four bidders come in to try and buy the company out of bankruptcy at an auction that starts today. Johnson Controls (JCI +0.6%), NEC, Siemens (SI), and Wanxaing all qualified to bid for parts of the lithium-ion battery maker. Comment! [Consumer]
    6 Dec 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    SINCE OVER-UNDER POOLS ARE A TRADITION –

     

    I'll take under $150 million to get the ball rolling.

     

    They started with JCI bidding $125 for automotive. Wanxiang reportedly bid $131 for everything but the government contracts. I see $150 as a top end estimate unless bidders start getting silly.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    ZBB signs large storage contract for island microgrid.

     

    http://bit.ly/THLQBR
    6 Dec 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    Re: ZBB.... and the stock barely moves... volume spikes, however.
    6 Dec 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Interesting given the 1M+ shares trading hands...Is it because financial details weren't released?
    6 Dec 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >OC ... ZBB seems to have the same problem Axion has; "No Good News Goes Unpunished". This is the second time in a row they have announced a sale and the stock share price goes down.
    6 Dec 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    ZBB is up sharply today!
    7 Dec 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    ZBB was very heavily shorted in the recent past. It was nearly impossible to get a borrow. Now that short interest has been covered, for the most part.

     

    How a stock doesn't move on such enormous volume strikes me as MM to MM.
    6 Dec 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1209) | Send Message
     
    This is the second test of .30c in as many days. Can't seem to get a close below .30... not that I'm complaining. Another successful test (or two) next week, and I think we can put .30c in the rear-view mirror.

     

    Regarding DRich comment above. If Alt. Energy (incl. storage) stocks catch a bid in 2013 (as an asset class), I think we'll see all ships in the harbor rising, including ZBB.

     

    Good volume on AXPW today!
    6 Dec 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Feds to review effectiveness of fuel economy rules in 2017

     

    http://bit.ly/XvMVyU
    6 Dec 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Way OT but I know some here have interests in more efficient lighting.

     

    Goodbye, fluorescent light bulbs: New lighting technology won't flicker, shatter or burn out

     

    field-induced polymer electroluminescent light source

     

    http://bit.ly/TI2Yr0
    6 Dec 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    "ield-induced polymer electroluminescent light source"

     

    Thanks again, iind. The article reads as though the technology might have potential to put a huge crimp is future markets for white OLED lights. (Long PANL)
    6 Dec 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    No clues on price tho.
    6 Dec 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    "Goodbye, fluorescent light bulbs: New lighting technology won't flicker, shatter or burn out"

     

    One thing I know for sure is the lead in phrase of the quote is accurate for my household. I have completely dispensed with CFLs and started using LEDs. Areas that are frequently artificially illuminated for long periods have been identified and as the installed bulbs fail, they are replaced with LEDs or, in some cases, Philips "EcoVantage" or comparable "new and improved" incandescent bulbs using 28% less power for comparable lumen output.
    6 Dec 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    I saw an article somewhere that theorized that FIPEL lighting could provide competition for LEDs, likely benefiting the consumer.

     

    D-inv, I also have been switching to LEDs and just bought my first L prize bulb. The price had dropped to $29 and free shipping at Home Depot online. I am hoping that more CFLs burn out (and they do) and then I will replace them!
    6 Dec 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    AES Selects Mitsubishi-GS Yuasa and Parker-Hannifin to Supply Battery Energy Storage System

     

    http://bit.ly/SQZUq8
    6 Dec 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    I was not familiar with the use of energy storage for a coal-fired plant. So I looked for more and found this:
    http://bit.ly/UqyzLw
    In close proximity to the Angamos plant, a 20-MW high-efficiency lithium-ion battery energy storage system (BESS) was installed. The advanced reserve capacity provided by the BESS enables Angamos to generate an additional 20 MW—that would otherwise be tied up to maintain the plant’s grid spinning reserve—for up to 15 minutes virtually any time of the year. (Spinning reserve is used during an unexpected transmission loss, the failure of a power generator, or another accident that might otherwise necessitate reducing power to customers.) This “hybrid” part of the plant allows the plant to reduce the mandated spinning reserve, thus allowing the plant to operate at increased load. The BESS increases generation from the Anga- mos plant by 4%, or about 130 GWh each year. The BESS entered commercial service in May 2012 (Figure 4).
    The Angamos project built on the success of an initial partnership between AES Gener and AES Energy Storage, both subsidiaries of AES Corp., to develop and install a 12-MW BESS associated with AES Gener’s Norgener power plant, also in the SING, 172 km from Angamos, in only 15 months.
    “As one of the largest power generators in Chile, we’re consistently looking for ways to unlock [the] value of our existing plants while maintaining grid reliability and flexibility,” said Felipe Ceron, CEO of AES Gener.
    --
    I'm no expert but it sounds like something a large PowerCube could do better.
    6 Dec 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • tocoadog
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    I hope this is the same ePower. If not, please delete.

     

    http://bit.ly/123hOKK

     

    http://bit.ly/UIRN13

     

    http://bit.ly/TWimfL

     

    http://bit.ly/10wTroK

     

    http://bit.ly/TWimfS

     

    http://bit.ly/QaY0lE
    6 Dec 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    tocoadog, It is. Your 4th link didn't work for me and indicated that the site would forever be shut down. Something from Ohio State EDU.

     

    If you can provide another link for what you reviewed I'd appreciate it. Sounds like it might have some pretty good meat on it.
    6 Dec 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • tocoadog
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/10wTroK
    http://bit.ly/UIUXC7

     

    fingers crossed.

     

    If these links don't work, the patent application no is 20110174561.
    6 Dec 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • tocoadog
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    So...1st link no worky. It is patent application specific.

     

    The 2nd link works - and that is very meaty.
    6 Dec 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    tacoadog. I thank you. I will be reviewing tomorrow.
    6 Dec 2012, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    tocoadog,
    Nice collection of articles. Gives some background on how ePower has progressed and who has helped along the way.
    6 Dec 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    It is enticing to think that if ePower Engine Systems can sell as few as 1,000 truck retrofits in the next year Axion could become cashflow positive (or close to it) and profitable at 2,000 truck retrofits. This, along with the other prospects, could mean we're looking at a share price (ignoring any enthusiasm premium) in the $2.00 - $3.00 range by this time next year. I would love it if next year is the one where Axion gets off the OTC. This actually looks doable and, if not truly realistic, a lot of fun to day dream about.

     

    Meh! Never happen this way. I'm just letting my frustration get the better of me. Back to reality.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    WTG tocadog. I didn't know about the economic development deal from La Vista.
    7 Dec 2012, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    DRich---do you remember what the current capacity constraints are for Axion's PbC manufacturing? I know the two biggest categories, the overall New Castle license and their single carbon electrode line, but I don't remember the #'s (or at least our estimates, other than JP estimating approx. 20k PbC's per quarter) for those.

     

    Bumping into the current limits will (ha, not would) certainly be a nice problem to have, of course.
    7 Dec 2012, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    From the 3rd link provided by tocoadog (an article not dated, but from early 2011?):

     

    "ePower projects the potential for sales to reach $735 million by 2015."

     

    Although in the 2nd link the company said $70k per conversion plus labor, if you assume $70k, then $735mil/$70k per conversion = 10,500 conversions, which is a nice round number, and also so happens to approx = 1% of their estimated 1.010 million addressable mkt size. Is this per year, or cumulatively for, say, 5 years from 2011 through 2015?

     

    Please note I am NOT agreeing nor disagreeing with these numbers, just posting them for the folks here to know & discuss.
    7 Dec 2012, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The rough breakdown on ePower retrofit costs is $20,000 for batteries and $50,000 for other drivetrain components.
    7 Dec 2012, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Even if labor was extra, at 80 hours (per the 2nd link) * say, $30/hr ($15/hr perhaps for craft labor in NE or KY (rounding up the mgr rates in the 2nd link) * 2 (for profit) = $30/hr) = only $2,400 anyway. No biggie, at least compared to $70k.

     

    Kinda begs the question, where ARE they making their $? $20k is a ballpark for their PbCs cost, aren't we assuming? Must be in the other parts (and if Axion charges them < $400/PbC).
    7 Dec 2012, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    While I don't have a detailed breakdown on ePower's out-of-pocket component costs, I'm confident that they have a healthy markup across the board. Andy Claypole is a very sharp executive and he's not running a charity.
    7 Dec 2012, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Do you have any insight on the ownership structure of ePower that you would be able to share, i.e. is it owned by one or two individuals, I see a Mr. Russell Knudsen is a founder, are they financed by any venture capital firms? I'm just wondering about their capital abilities to ramp up production.
    7 Dec 2012, 04:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    I'm really looking forward to the mpg test results. If they truly got over 15 in testing with the AGM batteries (when new), they should be able to get way, way the heck higher than the 6 US fleet average.

     

    Doing some ballpark AXPW valuation metrics using ePower's 1% penetration rate (annually, I'll assume): 1x sales in 2017 (2015 + 2 yr delay til now) = approx. $1/share (10,500 conversions x 52 PbCs * $400/PbC / 200mil shares. 2x sales = $2 and so on. Everyone can do their own math and work back to an early 2013 valuation impact, but the main takeaway for now is this helps quantify how big it might be to AXPW. That is, pretty darn big. And that's just this one PbC prospective customer in this one PbC application.

     

    Well, it's after 3am here, so I gotta get some sleep. Or am I already sleep-writing?
    7 Dec 2012, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    I don't have any clear ideas on ePower's capital structure. I know they did a modest seed round financing a couple years ago for less than an million and believe they have financing in place from a VC for the first 200 retrofits, but beyond that my knowledge is pretty fuzzy. Until they get to a point where they need my skill set, my role with ePower will be limited. It's not a big company, but their business isn't very capital intensive and I don't see financing to fill orders as a major challenge.
    7 Dec 2012, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The APU market with ±700,000 vehicles at 4 batteries each is big news. The potential series hybrid market in trucking with 1,000,000 retrofit eligible vehicles at 52 batteries each is breathtaking. If ePower can push their system upstream into the OEM market of ±175,000 vehicles per year, it's even better.

     

    It's my understanding that Axion believes the ePower hybrid can get by with about half the battery capacity used in the current design, but that will take a new set of control electronics and a few more months of system development work. For now, ePower believes that getting its two trucks fitted out with PbC batteries quickly is more important than minimizing costs.
    7 Dec 2012, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    It's good to hear a company wanting to move quickly to run a real world test of the PbC!! It gives hope that we will soon get over the hump and begin to see real improvement in the stock price.
    7 Dec 2012, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    "It's my understanding that Axion believes the ePower hybrid can get by with about half the battery capacity used in the current design..."

     

    I think it great that Axion has the technical knowledge to be able to optimize the customer's use of the PbC and to cut their expenses. However another part of me wishes that the optimal solution were 60 batteries for even better mpg.
    7 Dec 2012, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Imagine that. A loan program from the Department of Housing and Urban development helped a small business make a significant difference in the nations fuel use.
    7 Dec 2012, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    For some reason my memory is that Axion could produce 150 PbCs per day, right now. That is enough current capacity to handle trains and trucks for now.
    7 Dec 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    In the patent application, it appears they have tested battery packs using Ever Start thin wall plated lead acid batteries. Is ePower dissatisifed with Ever Start batts based on their testing? Or are they still looking around for something better?

     

    "0099] The following examples illustrate various aspects of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.

     

    Example 1

     

    [0100] A 1989 Mack truck T was converted from a conventional diesel engine type truck to a hydrocarbon fueled electric series hybrid propulsion system 8 of the present invention. Step 1 is the removal of unnecessary components in the 1989 Mack truck T. In Step 2, the radiator, engine, transmission, fuel tanks and drive shaft of the 1989 Mack truck are removed for the conversion process. Step 3 is the installation of the AC electric motor 32 and drive shaft 33. An example of an AC electric motor 32 is available under the designation L1431A Inverter Duty manufactured by Reliance Elect. Step 4 is the alignment of the drive train with the rear differential 34. In Step 5, a gen-set GS is readied for installation. Step 6 is the installation of the diesel engine 14 and AC generator 20. An example of a hydrocarbon fueled IC engine 14 is available under Model No. 4045T manufactured by John Deere. An example of an AC generator 20 is available under Model No. 363PSL3127 manufactured by Marathon Electric. In Step 7, the diesel fuel tanks 16 and 18 and battery packs 26 and 28 are tested for a proper fit. Step 8 is the installation of diesel fuel tanks 16 and 18 and battery packs 26 and 28. An example of a battery comprising thin wall plates suitable for use in the battery packs 26 and 28 is available under Model No. 24 MS-6 manufactured by Ever Start. "
    7 Dec 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    jveal> While it's nice to see a small company like ePower wanting to move quickly, their desire might have been much weaker without years of testing data to demonstrate the suitability of the PbC for use in other extreme regenerative braking environments - like railroad locomotives. Testing is always tough, but it's also the scutt work that makes subsequent sales seem simple.
    7 Dec 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    FUT .. My memory is a bit different. IIRC, Axion's automated electrode line was producing enough electrodes running one shift to manufacture a little over 300 batteries per day while their battery production permit authorized output of up to 3,000 batteries daily. Two of three battery production lines dedicated are committed to FLAB toll contract work and the single AGM production line output capacity was guesstimated as 1,000/day. I'm thinking Axion has inhouse capacity to produce ~1,000 PbCs daily running three shifts on the electrode and AGM battery lines.

     

    IMS, electrode production rates were a matter of APC discussion in late Summer 2010 and later.
    7 Dec 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, you're looking at two different metrics.

     

    The automated electrode line has a design capacity of electrodes for 150 batteries per shift. In a multi-shift operation productivity is typically adjusted down to 80% for a swing shift and 60% for a graveyard shift. So the maximum capacity for a single electrode line would be 360 batteries per day, although something in the 90% of capacity range, or 325 batteries per day, is probably a safer way to think about capacity. There are no regulatory permits that would limit the number of lines Axion could install in it's electrode plant, although I seem to recall that ten or eleven is the practical limit because of building size.

     

    The 3,000 unit limit relates to the number of lead-acid batteries that can be produced in the battery factory.

     

    While Axion does want to maximize the productivity of its battery factory, it's bigger goal is to make as many electrode assemblies as it can sell. While building new battery plants is a major permitting headache because of the lead issues, building new electrode plants is a fairly simple permitting process.
    7 Dec 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Thanks to all your info and others on this blog I understand that point very well. BMW and NSC have paid for/conducted much research that has not only verified but, if I understand correctly, has also provided the opportunity to improve the technology. I realize Axion would not be able to meet the need of ePower without these other long term partnerships.
    7 Dec 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The processes are always additive and once the testing and validation work is done by somebody in the first tier, peers and lower tier players are far more willing to accept the work at face value instead of starting over from square one.
    7 Dec 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    Automotive concerns generally will not allow you to state capacity on a 3 shift basis. The most I've ever received is 20 hours in a day. How you staff and run the facility is your business but they will not allow you to claim capacity on a 24 hour/day basis due to things like planned maintenance, breakdowns etc. Also 5 days/week is generally all that is allowed. This is because if they run weekend they expect you to do the same. Most capacity studies I provided were calculated at 240 working days/year in the US.
    7 Dec 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the detail review, JP. I did not recall details on shift output of electrode assembly line, only the daily total. If installed electrode capacity is capped around 325 per day then PbC battery production is limited to 325+ whatever can be supplemented from accumulated electrode inventory (assuming output of carbon sheeting used in electrode assembly will support more than one shift assembly operations). Three electrode assembly lines would appear needed for full utilization of estimated in-house AGM capacity.

     

    With a 325 daily limit on electrode supply and in-house AGM production capacity, monthly PbC output of 6,500 appears achievable with 24 hour operation of the electrode assembly line and single shift, five day week operation of the AGM line. If carbon sheeting production capacity limits electrode assembly operations to one shift, five day a week operations would yield 2,720 PbCs monthly.)

     

    It has always been clear that Axion's long-term business plan is to supply electrode assemblies to other battery OEMs for PbC production. But, the in-house AGM battery production assets enables production of PbCs in the short-term without dependency on larger battery OEMs such as Exide or JCI.
    7 Dec 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the automotive capacity metric background, iind.
    7 Dec 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    Mercifully, the electrode lines are not terribly expensive. Axion hasn't disclosed a number but looking at their PP&E additions during 2010 leads me to believe that an estimate in the $3.5 million per line range is probably in the ballpark. It also ties back to old news stories about a 10-line plant, including real estate, costing about $50 million.
    7 Dec 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    metro,
    If you click on the second link from tocoadog above, and scroll down to the eighth page of the pdf, you will see that ePower is listed as having 5 partners, each who hold a 20% stake in the company.
    7 Dec 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    3.5 million USD/line sounds way too high to me.

     

    In theory the engineering is done so that lops a big chunk off additional units. Also, I'm assuming, they would not be dressing out the plant one line at a time so there are economies of scale. ( buy 10 robots you get price x buy 50 you get price y. Make 5 of the same details you get a far lower price etc.). Also you can send the design out to a couple places and get build only quotes. Do some arm twisting for a better price. Just a few points and there are more.

     

    Oh, and one last point. I'd rationalize having all those robots. I, for the life of me, can't see why they need all that flexibility for a stacked assembly. Could be wrong.....but I'm not. :)

     

    PS The whole plant cost could still be easily in that range. There would be lot's of aux. support structure needed besides the primary assy lines.
    7 Dec 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    You certainly know more about plant expansion issues than I do, so I'll show proper deference to experience and assume you're right. That being said, I suspect that $3.5 million per line for the electrode plant sets a reasonable upper limit for stockholders who are trying to figure out how much capital might be needed for plant expansion. While everything is cheaper by the dozen, when stockholders are worried about an upcoming financing in a difficult market the outside cost of slow and steady becomes an important consideration.
    7 Dec 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8961) | Send Message
     
    We are obviously all looking forward to their need to expand. We'll let the experts manage the details.

     

    More important is getting past the dating thing and having an engagement. I've seen enough roses and candy.
    7 Dec 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    toco - in your perusal of these various epower links, did you happen to note if any info on the generator and electric motor is included? Size, mfgs, types, designs, weight, nomenclature, etc.?
    7 Dec 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The diesel is a 197 hp John Deere. The 125 kw generator and 150 kw drive motor are both from Marathon.
    7 Dec 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, John.
    7 Dec 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    thanks LabTech.
    7 Dec 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (852) | Send Message
     
    ""Way OT but I know some here have interests in more efficient lighting""

     

    Thanks for posting iindelco. I have major problems with fluorescent lighting.
    6 Dec 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    Analyst note published in Barrons about electric car sales for November. "For a fourth consecutive month, U.S. electric vehicle sales hit a record, with about 7,600 sales in November and 47,500 year-to-date."

     

    http://bit.ly/YH8cqZ

     

    The article concludes with a statement that electric vehicles (which include Plug-in Prius) constituted .7% of auto sales in November and .4% for 2012 overall.
    6 Dec 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29663) | Send Message
     
    The most detailed and accurate tracking data I've found is the monthly "Dashboard" from hybridcars.com, an HEV fan site.

     

    http://bit.ly/YHGWZm
    7 Dec 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    After looking at the data, wonder how the plug in BMW Active E sold negative 2 vehicles, unless it's a typo.

     

    Without comparing their lineups or knowing the availablility of the vehicles, it appears a first glance that Lexus drivers are greener than BMW or Mercedes drivers, or at least Lexus is selling a lot more hybrid vehicles.
    7 Dec 2012, 02:58 AM Reply