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  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Ah First Again
    13 Dec 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    Second Again!
    13 Dec 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Ms. congeniality again 8-(
    13 Dec 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    This is probably my first in the top 20.
    That's what I get for rereading Bimbos of the Death Sun.
    13 Dec 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Spent so much time looking around for something to say I almost got first in the next concentrator! :))

     

    Looks like Saint Elon pulled it off.

     

    Musk’s SolarCity Raises $92 Million in Initial Share Sale

     

    "SolarCity Corp. (SCTY), the solar power provider led by billionaire Elon Musk, raised $92 million in its initial public offering, 39 percent less than initially sought after selling the shares at a reduced price."

     

    http://bloom.bg/XWS9nL

     

    Edit: BTW this supports John's comments regarding taking the money. You may not get what you want but you take what you need as you may not get a second chance.
    13 Dec 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco
    Even with the 40% drop, the stock is 4 time as expensive as the competitors.
    Opening bell soon.
    13 Dec 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, Get your order in! LOL
    13 Dec 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    In a world where acolytes by the thousands believe St. Elon walks on water and shoots fireballs from his backside, it strikes me as a shock to see SolarCity take something approaching a 50% hit from the high end of its initial target range.

     

    I can hear the murmurs now, St. Elon bleeds!!

     

    We all remember what happened to Danny fter that shocking revelation in "The Man Who Would Be King."

     

    http://bit.ly/TQHK71
    13 Dec 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Well, the stock is already up 35% today, so the Elon faithful are still going strong.
    13 Dec 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Word on the street is that they can lose 100 million next year so the target price is 35 USD ( ;-p ). They are growing like crazy!

     

    SolarCity slashes IPO share price, boosts size of offering

     

    "SolarCity’s revenue has soared in recent years, surging to a projected $124.1 million this year from $59.6 million last year and $32.4 million in 2010, according to PrivCo data. The company's net loss widened to $73.7 million last year from $47.1 million the year before, according to the research."

     

    http://lat.ms/TdkjGi
    13 Dec 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Those seem to me to be out-sized losses, expenses at 150% of cashflow, for an engineering/consultant... service provider. It will be interesting to see what is sucking so much cash within the operation. Any guesses.
    13 Dec 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I've heard that the hopium dealers on the left coast charge outlandish prices.
    13 Dec 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Some info. here that might be of interest from PrivCo.

     

    http://bit.ly/XhzkXs
    13 Dec 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    DRich
    That's ignoring that the IRS and the treasury both are having trouble with the numbers that SCTY has given them.

     

    Also they have lowered the reimbursement rates in Ca. and Az. so they will make less for each job.

     

    "On December 5, 2012, the U.S. Treasury Department notified one of our investment funds that it has established new guidelines for residential solar energy systems placed in service in California and Arizona on or after October 1, 2012. The new guidelines communicated are $6.00 per watt in California and $5.00 per watt in Arizona. Prior to this change, we had been reimbursed at $6.87 per watt in California and $6.20 per watt in Arizona. As a result of this updated guidance, we will be obligated to contribute additional solar energy systems to this investment fund so that the fund investors will recover a shortfall of approximately $200,000. If the Internal Revenue Service or the U.S. Treasury Department further disagrees now or in the future..."

     

    http://bit.ly/S7neU4
    13 Dec 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    "SolarCity says it has provided systems for more than 45,000 buildings in 14 states" ... jeez. And we just want the first off site PC or Hub.
    13 Dec 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Deep breath.

     

    Hellllllloooooo, UL, You there?
    13 Dec 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Settle down. UL exists in a different time continuum. Are you familiar with a concept of time known as the Friedman unit?
    13 Dec 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    lol,

     

    http://bit.ly/Un3cjS
    13 Dec 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Yeah. I've worked in corporate America. Within 6 months of working for ITT it was understood to stand for It Takes Time.
    13 Dec 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2282) | Send Message
     
    "Connecticut to provide the first real case study for microgrid technology"

     

    http://bit.ly/TdjDAL

     

    "In June, the Connecticut General Assembly created a microgrid pilot program, making it the first state to have an explicit policy on microgrids. The Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) was given $20 million to test the idea with a handful of municipalities, which will be selected by the end of the year, with several microgrids operating by mid-2013. The idea is not only to strategically place microgrids near critical facilities, such as hospitals, police and fire stations, and water systems, but also near town centers and commercial hubs. That way, if the power goes out, grocery stores, gas stations and pharmacies will remain open too."

     

    Which state will be next? Any hurricane prone state should be thinking along these lines.
    13 Dec 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    "Which state will be next? Any hurricane prone state should be thinking along these lines."

     

    Kudos to CT. Not only hurricanes to be concerned with. What about cyber warfare, which I keep hearing the US is vulnerable to? Iran would love nothing more than to knock out our entire electrical grid for up to several months. -- For security reasons, exploring microgrid technology should be high on any state or local municipality's do list.
    13 Dec 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    I always find the definition of a microgrid interesting as well. They talk about putting them near hospitals. I know the university/hospital system I work at has their own microgrid/emergency power system. It used to be powered by a coal plant, but now they've switched it over to natural gas. It will be interesting to see if they account for systems like this when they formulate where to put microgrids and how they should be maintained.
    13 Dec 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    A new report just out on how to proved 99.9% of all the energy needed by PJM using renewables. Of course I want to know where they are going to put 3400 offshore wind turbines, 4.25 million rooftop solar installations, and how the cost of wind and solar is magically going to half between now and 2030, but those are just pesky details. Oh, and of course, the only reason the money works out is because everyone is going to pay less in healthcare costs from not using fossils fuels, so that is part of the cost calculation. I'm sure in the meantime, the consumers won't mind watching their electric bills skyrocket.
    Ah, what you can do with a computer.

     

    http://bit.ly/TX3j8p
    13 Dec 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    :-) Gee, LabT. We owe those study authors a thank you for further enlightening us in the scientific realm. Until reading that article I was not aware that PV and wind turbines generated hydrogen in volume or of the obvious benefits of hydrogen storage to power generators and natural gas end users.

     

    "Storage is relatively costly because the storage medium, batteries or hydrogen tanks, must be larger for each additional hour stored."

     

    "When there was more renewable energy generated than needed, the model would first fill storage, use the remaining to replace natural gas for heating homes and businesses and only after those, let the excess go to waste."
    13 Dec 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Lab Tech

     

    "During the hours when there was not enough renewable electricity to meet power needs, the model drew from storage and, on the rare hours with neither renewable electricity or stored power, then fossil fuel. When there was more renewable energy generated than needed, the model would first fill storage, use the remaining to replace natural gas for heating homes and businesses and only after those, let the excess go to waste."

     

    I take it you wildly over build, have massive storage. Have fossil fuels at the ready, and in good times you waste the extra?

     

    Oh and this will cost no more than the present set up.
    13 Dec 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Looks like TSLA shareholders sold to buy SCTY shares.... the two charts are completely divergent.
    13 Dec 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Makes sense. They figure TSLA has gone up to almost its all time high, so now jump on the Solar City bandwagon and try and ride it up as well.
    13 Dec 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Hello all Axionistas!

     

    I was able to buy and lock up 5,000 shares at .29 today and then another 5,000 at .29.
    A few weeks ago I bagged 5,000 at .2502 and then 3,200 at .25.

     

    I'm now holding 35,400 AXPW for the long term.
    PPS should ramp up quickly after an announcement of sales of any of the fine products Axion has to offer.
    tz
    13 Dec 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Timzinski, You're smart or you're dumb ( Really correct or wrong. No correlation on the IQ thing. ). I wish you well. That's investing.

     

    My money say's you're betting well. No assurances.
    13 Dec 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    congrats, and welcome
    14 Dec 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    Some of us I am sure would be interested in how new investors come by their decisions. May I ask how you came to your decision to invest?
    14 Dec 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, It's a "long" story but mainly I decided to invest in Axion as a direct result of John Petersen's steady, factual reporting.

     

    Actually, I was following developments about Kandi Technologies Corp. when John wrote an article explaining the "myths" about EV's and Li-ion batteries using terms like "hopium".
    Too bad I had already invested in ALTI (yeah, it is down 99% for me at this time) but at least John saved me from additional losses in other hyped stocks and got me on the path to redemption.
    I was looking for, what I now know as "elephant hunting", a stock that would put me on easy street after losing my job in the "economic downturn" and seeing my IRA reduced by 70%. At my age employment is not so easy to come by and my personality is not suited to working Wal-mart's front door "greeter" position".
    Li-ion was in my head as a result of so much hopium being spewed out by newsletters and pump&dump'ers for years. ROC and SQM have doubled in the past few years but seem to be stuck now, as Li is not as great as once believed.
    Well, we all know what JP's analysis of EV's with plugs & Li batteries means from a quality investment perspective. However, John stated that of all the hundreds of companies dabbling in EV's around the world that Kandi's patented no plug, fast battery-swap, super cheap ($4500.00) concept for the masses in China seemed to have the best chance of being successful.
    Subsequently, I began building a position in KNDI.
    There is a group of investors with a forum on Yahoo similar to what Axion has in the APC (nowhere near as technically savvy, or funny).
    At this time I also started reading John's earlier articles. Closest thing to a revelation I have ever had! I became a follower, one of an already impressive 53,349. Then, I became follower number 159 on the APC which is up to 176 now.
    When I first started following, AXPW was stuck at .57, then moved up to .79, but it eventually started falling and when down to .42 I picked up 400 shares, using all my free cash from some dividends. At .37 I convinced my daughter to pick up 3,000 in her Roth. By this time, in the APC's, the news of NS999, BMW, PC at the Navy Yard seemed to predict the eventual huge success of Axion; the PPS dived so I bought shares at .308 and .30. Enter Rosewater and the HUB with millions$ of potential. The PPS dived so I bought more shares at .2502 and .25. Out of nowhere came ePower and Class 8 hybrid trucks with tens or hundreds of millions$ in potential! and APU systems too, woo-hoo! Wowie baby, the PPS finally nudged up a few pennies ... before starting to dive and tempt the bottom feeders. I bought more shares at .29. Yesterday I bought another 5,000 at .28. (I do not want to see a return to .25). It's time to lock up shares in the 'ol sock drawer and keep them off the market.
    AXPW is a strange one. The pump&dumpers of hyped stocks drive the prices up with continual hype PR's. But Great news for Axion sees the price go down...go figure. Anyway, I figure Axion is legit due to the lack of continual hype. TG is tending to business and dilligently working to get the PbC battery into several lucrative markets. Any day now a sales contract will be announced and then I won't be crazy anymore, just crazy rich.
    I'm holding my 40,400 shares forever and hope to add more.

     

    Short Story version: I started reading John Petersen's articles which led me to the APC's. So many knowledgeable posters here that follow the business and the battery market to the minute. I was impressed and then convinced I wanted to invest. It took awhile, about 6 months, for my cash situation to improve enough to where I could begin accumulating shares. In that 6 months the news about the PbC just got better, the pps went lower, and the investment opportunity became incredibly good.
    Many thanks to John Petersen and the many regular Axionistas who post on the APC. I appreciate your sharing of knowledge and due dilligence.
    Someday I hope to meet and thank you all personally at the Axionista Grand Ball to celebrate delivery of the one millionth PbC battery!

     

    TimZ

     

    I am Long AXPW KNDI CPST

     

    I have a lot of other junk I am long on only because it's tanked, but AXPW should make up for all the losses incurred before my edification!

     

    15 Dec 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I hope you make a million timzinski.
    15 Dec 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Thank you John Petersen. Your hope is worth more than all of the hopium.
    I know becasue it's based on honest examination of financial statements and cash flows. Your analysis proved accurate for so many drowned companies that once were riding the high waves.
    Your track record is good. Your credibility is high. Odds are in your favor.
    I hope your gain is in the tens of millions but that will not be as satisfying as being right about Axion Power.
    When I make it I plan to travel to Switzerland, Austria, Poland and Germany. Hope to see you there!
    15 Dec 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Actually I'll be moving back to the States soon because my wife and her partner are preparing to launch a very cool social media company and the investment bankers are insisting that Rachel and her partner both have to live in the same place and that place has to be in the US. The really fun part is I'll just have to be the "Best Husband in a Supporting Role."
    15 Dec 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    I wish you well in that new endeavor.
    Hopefully, you will have time to continue posting on the APC and writing fine investment articles.
    I owe my lovely wife Rachel a trip to Europe but we can take the long way 'round.
    Perhaps we'll connect with you at the next Axion annual meeting.
    15 Dec 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I earn my daily bread by helping small companies navigate the corporate finance process from start up financing through an IPO or buy-out. This blog has generated more and higher quality business contacts than anything I've ever done. It's also an investment that will stop paying if I stop sharing. So I don't plan to quit anytime soon.
    15 Dec 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    TimZ: A good story and a good entry, IMO. Welcome!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on your entry price(s), timz!
    13 Dec 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Tesla's millions of electric miles has not been up dated to include Model-S.
    http://bit.ly/JiXHis
    According to Tesla's site: The total of 2100+ Roadsters in 31 countries is approaching 30 million miles.

     

    The dirty and EVil Chevy Volt plug in hybrid (Don't you dare call it an EV as it has an ICE!) It started selling in mid Dec 2010.
    Announced last week:
    Chevrolet Volt Miles Driven All-Electrically Now Total More Than 100 Million
    http://bit.ly/VEiBwd

     

    "Chevrolet says that the average Volt owner travels “more than 65 percent of the time in pure electric mode as the car was designed” while only using the gasoline-powered generator for longer trips.
    Thanks to frequent charging, Volt owners often surpass the EPA estimated 98 MPGe, and each tank of gas in a plug-in Chevy Volt lasts about 900 miles."

     

    Another fight by the Purest EVangelists that wasn't worth spending an electron on.

     

    It looks like JP's theory of smaller battery in more cars = higher total gas savings, is holding up.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I keep an Excel workbook with a page that shows quarterly Roadster deliveries since 2008. I've used the delivery data to estimate the total number of user days for the Roadster fleet and calculate the average mileage per user day. It's a blunt instrument, but it shows that the average Roadster is driven about 14.25 miles per day.

     

    I just added a parallel set of columns for the Volt and got to basically the same average mileage per car day.
    14 Dec 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    14 miles is the length of my daily commute! 7 miles each way.
    14 Dec 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    John
    I've been reading you for 4 + years and counting.
    You continue to surprise/amaze me with the depth and breadth your DD.
    14 Dec 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    If you want to play with the spreadsheet, you can get your very own copy here: – http://bit.ly/12dc4Pn
    14 Dec 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Wikipedia and a bit of estimation from chargers and charging times put the Leaf's first 6 months of use at about 18 mi daily. The average length of a trip was 7mi.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I read it on the internet, but I think 7 miles is about the size of the territories of many small-brained varmints. That would be too much of a coincidence, I suppose. Must be a rumor.
    14 Dec 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (778) | Send Message
     
    Just read this white paper from Trojan Battery about selecting the correct battery for the heavy demand of the battery APU units. I believe the NITE systems recommend using the Trojan Overdrive batteries. This report shows that the Overdrive battery falls to 50% after 340 cycles and that beats out the competition by a measurable amount!
    Note that the PBC is not included in the comparison chart!

     

    http://bit.ly/VEj1Tj

     

    340 cycles could be approximately 1 year of use, if the batteries are suppose to operate the APU unit for approximately 8 to 10 hours when new and at 100% how many hours would the batteries opporate the APU units once they are weakened to say 75% which is only approximately 225 cycles? At 75% or 50% I don't think the drivers will be happy!
    14 Dec 2012, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    I noticed the claimed APU discharge depth is only 20% (from 80% to 100%). And they rate their batteries, Cycle Life at 50% DOD: 800 cycles. Therefore their batteries though not as good as PbC could do the job at least for a while. IIRC, Tim mentioned premium AGM could last 3 or 4 years as APU.
    14 Dec 2012, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    The main killer of batteries in a truck is over and under charging.

     

    Batteries like a 3 stage charge; bulk, absorb and float. That is a healthy amount of amperage held at a fixed rate (bulk) until a voltage setpoint is achieved. This voltage is held (absorb) until the batteries are completely full (and then some). When the batteries are full the voltage is dropped (float).

     

    The undercharging comes in when the voltaged needed is not achieved from no temperature compensation or just plain low voltage at the battery. The over charging takes place because in a truck the float stage never happens.

     

    The batteries in my truck have a 5 year warranty in a fixed location and a 1 year in a vehicle because of the above. My impression of the PbC is that it is ammune from being over/under charged because it lives and operates well in a partial state of charge.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    i see a nice 100k bid @ 0.29
    14 Dec 2012, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if this was previously posted.

     

    Energy Quarterly (http://bit.ly/XlDAoB) is a special section published in the Materials Research Society's MRS Bulletin. The current EQ edition, published as a special section of the November 2012 MRS Bulletin, takes a long hard look at the battery, detailing both its potentials and its problems, in particular for energy storage in the electrical grid.

     

    Extract from Cambridge Journals' press release about the article:

     

    "The current edition of Energy Quarterly, published as a special section of the November 2012 MRS Bulletin, takes a long hard look at the battery, detailing both its potentials and its problems, in particular for energy storage in the electrical grid.

     

    With more than 99 per cent of energy storage on the US national grid requiring huge sites where water can be pumped into elevated reservoirs and then flowed through electricity-generating turbines, batteries – portable, modular and easy to install – are increasingly attractive for grid storage.

     

    Batteries are ideal for injecting short bursts of power into the grid that smooth variations in alternating current frequency. Batteries are good for such applications because they can quickly release energy and cycle hundreds of times daily with low energy loss.

     

    Battery storage can quickly inject the precise amount of power the grid needs, absorb excess energy on the grid, provide reserves without a minimum generation requirement, and be sited anywhere. They have no emissions and use little water.

     

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is trying to develop industry standards for grid battery storage, which should make it easier for utilities to install battery systems in the future. The race is now on to develop new and innovative battery chemistries:

     

    •Boston-based Pellion is working on magnesium-ion batteries
    •General Electric has opened a factory to make a new battery based on two-decades-old nickel-sodium-chloride chemistry
    •Pittsburgh-based Aquion Energy is close to starting large-scale manufacture of sodium-ion batteries
    •Axion Power from Delaware is combining lead-acid battery chemistry with electrochemical capacitors to create hybrid devices that quickly absorb and release charge
    •Even flow batteries, a decades-old technology, are seeing a comeback

     

    As to the drawbacks of batteries, cost and lack of experience are the biggest hurdles to widespread use of battery storage. However, technologies are improving as newer chemistries become available, bringing down costs. And battery technology is expected to follow the path of wind and solar energy, with costs going down and confidence in usage increasing with experience.

     

    It all adds up to a bright future for the battery and for power use in the American home."

     

    http://bit.ly/So9qEQ

     

    Article at: http://bit.ly/VG6Bdl
    14 Dec 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    For the article, you may want to try the link below, and then click on the appropriate hyperlink to download the article in .pdf or .html version.

     

    Sorry if the prior article link put you into electron neverworld.

     

    http://bit.ly/TZP0Rt
    14 Dec 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    My latest article was just chose as an Editors Pick:

     

    http://bit.ly/QYo0kB

     

    My wife and the Mayascribe both said that it's one of the best pieces I've ever written because it finally puts flooded, AGM, enhanced batteries and lead carbon batteries into an understandable perspective.
    14 Dec 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations JP. Great summary of the battery industry. I just hope most people take the time to get to the last part of the article.
    14 Dec 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's a little on the long side but the analytics I've reviewed over the years indicate that most folks sit down to read my articles with the idea that it's going to take a few minutes to read and digest.
    14 Dec 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Awesome article, John.

     

    You could not have laid the story out in any clearer terms. A reader with no particular knowledge of batteries would walk away with a clear understanding of what PbC is all about after finishing it.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The great thing about being active in these Concentrators and turning the comment sections of my articles into discussions is that it helps me understand where people "get it" and where they're confused.

     

    The level of confusion over where the various kinds of flooded, AGM, enhanced (including carbon additives) and lead-carbon batteries fit into the performance spectrum is breathtaking and I've been struggling with a simple way to describe the differences for a long time. I think that the conceptual of flooded as 1.0, enhanced flooded as 1.x, AGM as 2.0, enhanced AGM as 2.x and true lead-carbon as 3.0 will make it easier for people who want to grasp the differences.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I agree. The version number model speaks to tech investors in terms that they can understand, and the drug test model speaks to biotech investors in terms that they can understand.

     

    The thought also occurred to me in reading the article that many weeks of conversation on these concentrators were distilled down into the explanation you laid out in it.

     

    When I put my foot in the energy storage waters, I knew absolutely zero about the business, the sector, the chemistries, or the applications even though I have more than 10 years of investing experience, in biotech primarily.

     

    Reading the articles linked to in these concentrators and following the discussions, I have gradually developed enough familiarity with my investment in Axion to feel comfortable with the future of PbC.

     

    It's hard to judge how someone who hasn't participated here would read your article, but it certainly seems to me that it summarizes very well our conversations in these concentrators and does it in terms that a tech or biotech investor can understand.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The fundamental problem is that storage has always been a sleepy backwater that produced commodity products that everybody needed and hated. One of my favorite quips is, "the adjective most commonly associated with the word battery is damned."

     

    Over the last 10 years massive new demands for storage have arisen out of nowhere and I think we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg. The reason I've spent so much time blogging over the last four years is that I believe storage will be the next energy mega-trend and I want to be out in front of the crowd and recognized for my expertise before the tsunami arrives.

     

    My Axion investment would never justify the time I've put into this effort. Being a lead dog for a decade or two will.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (286) | Send Message
     
    I agree this is an excellent article. Well done. My only suggestion would be to mention the Ultrabattery so as to avoid criticism from those who might say you are failing to include all the competition, though I know you mentioned it in a way when you said two batteries are using lead carbon, but only one has an investment option as a public company. Again, some of your work. Thanks for writing it.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The graphic came from an Ultrabattery presentation and I included it in my Lead-acid 3.0 classification. The limited information I have shows that Ultrabattery performance falls somewhere between a conventional AGM battery and an AGM battery paired with a 2,400 farad supercapacitor from Maxwell. I already know that the AGM-Maxwell solution only addresses 10% of the problem and without better data I don't want to publicly pan the Ultrabattery so its better to say nothing.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1431) | Send Message
     
    Superb article, John, though there's a risk that if you keep publishing these articles documenting the incredible reward-risk ratio of AXPW as either an investment or speculation, the time will come when I'll no longer be able to buy shares for under 30c.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Alphameister ... I promise I will cry you a river of tears at your misfortune.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    rupers:
    Muchas gracias. Very interesting your comment.
    Have a good day-Carlos
    14 Dec 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    Mr. John:
    Gracias, excelent article.
    I get the impression that his wife also knows a lot about it.
    Have a good day-Carlos.
    14 Dec 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    Axion is experiencing the wildest price swings we've seen in a while. Back and forth from .271 to .2975 in the first hour.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Wide market maker spreads are the surest sign there is of a tightening on the supply side. When market makers know they can buy an unlimited number of shares at $.2899 and resell them at $.2901 they're happy to do so. When they're not sure where the shares are going to come from, they have to widen the spread to cover the risk of going short from time to time.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    logic too strong for my weak stomach. this is probably a testable statement and could contribute greatly to an effort to make formula's predicting supply side/ demand side pressures.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to both of you for the comments on the price swings! I hope HTL comes back soon with his analysis as well.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Electric car batteries may fail earlier than expected - research

     

    "Researchers led by Ohio State University engineers examined used car batteries and discovered that over time lithium accumulates beyond the battery electrodes, in the current collector - a sheet of copper which facilitates electron transfer between the electrodes and the car’s electrical system."

     

    http://bit.ly/WbKxK3
    14 Dec 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Wow, a lithium version of sulfation.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    I kinda find it hard to believe this is not known in the industry after all these years of development and failure mode analysis. I'd bet some of the players are aware of this but it was not common knowledge until now.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Please don't tell the trolls that used EV batteries have issues. Its their saving grace when all other arguments fail.
    14 Dec 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7426) | Send Message
     
    As I pointed out above that article title is misleading. They have simply discovered a previously unknown reason for lithium battery failure, not something that suddenly appeared and will now make lithium batteries fail prematurely. This is like saying the discovery of sulfation made lead acid batteries fail prematurely when in fact the knowledge about sulfation lead to discoveries of ways to avoid it, i.e. the PbC.
    15 Dec 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Explanation for difference between EPA and Consumer Reports MPG findings for the Ford fusion and the C-Max.

     

    Why do Ford's new hybrids ace the EPA fuel economy tests?

     

    http://bit.ly/Z5Q0rb
    14 Dec 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2282) | Send Message
     
    GE Demonstrates Battery Dominant Fuel Cell Bus Using New Durathon™ Battery

     

    By Business Wire
    Posted 12/13/2012 01:41 PM ET

     

    Read More At IBD: http://bit.ly/Uhv9Kp

     

    “GE’s Energy Management Technology combined with two or more batteries or energy devices allows GE to enable various power-to-energy configurations that match the vehicle needs. By leveraging the right battery to do the right job, overall system cost and efficiency can be improved.”

     

    "In the hybrid transit bus demonstration, the lithium battery focused on the high power acceleration and braking, while the Durathon™ battery provided an even electric power flow to extend the bus range."
    14 Dec 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    Muy interesante, wtb.

     

    Looks like the value is in decreasing the cost of fuel cell propulsion.

     

    GE researchers believe that the kind of energy management architecture they’re building will allow for a bus to operate at full performance with a significantly smaller fuel cell than previously possible. The fuel cell power plant represents a significant cost and GE’s energy management system has the potential to bring down those costs by up to 50%
    14 Dec 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    Some here have speculated about the value of combining battery technologies in a single application. This is an example of that.

     

    "Most types of batteries today come with a trade-off between power and energy storage. For example, lithium batteries, provide a lot of power for acceleration, but are not optimized to store energy for driving range. Sodium batteries, like GE’s Durathon™, are on the opposite side of the spectrum. They store large amounts of energy, but are less optimized for power. GE’s dual battery combines the best attributes of both chemistries into a single system."
    14 Dec 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    Although perhaps not the best in all applications i.e. where a lot of energy is required, I would think the PbC does the combo thing simpler and cheaper - supercapacitor/battery.
    14 Dec 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the article should say "Nissan backs down from pure EV fantasy.

     

    I bet their lines will soon run smaller battery packs if they are not already installed. Hopefully they can fill the plant in 3 or 4 years.

     

    Nissan Deepens Commitment to Vehicle Electrification

     

    http://bit.ly/XmZDv8
    -
    Nissan provides overview of progress on environmental commitments; 15 new hybrid models by 2016

     

    http://bit.ly/12dE85b
    14 Dec 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "Nissan borrowed $1.4 billion from the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Advanced Technology Manufacturing Loan Program".

     

    'Bout the biggest risk factor, based on DOE grants/loans results, resides right in that statement.

     

    However, with 15 hybrid models on the drawing boards, that should ameliorate Nissan's, and taxpayers', risk.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Way OT

     

    What to get the man that already has every color boa in his closet for Christmas this year. Don't let him be caught going into the New Year without a pair or two.

     

    http://yhoo.it/TSxgE0

     

    PS I'm starting to think we need a reset as well!

     

    Edit: I like the Ziggy Stardust line!
    14 Dec 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    Have both red and black boas in the closet, both shed terribly, but unfortunately won't be purchasing the meggings - unless they come out with a holstien cow pattern - to hang in the closet beside the belly dancing outfit.
    14 Dec 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    Seems like we've read* three or four reports in as many days where Axion gets a mention.

     

    *(or read about, since nobody's owned up to paying the $3900, or whatever)

     

    Add that to the just-as-coincidental website update and you have to figure someone over there in New Castle is listening in.

     

    In any case, I'm really encouraged.

     

    Have a great weekend, all!
    14 Dec 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    I don't know Metro. I just can't see these bringing as big a grin as your search for your car keys with a dress and boa on. You should have filmed that!

     

    http://bit.ly/TSXS84
    14 Dec 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    tidbit on particulate exhaust standards:

     

    http://buswk.co/12q7HzU
    14 Dec 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    NanoMarkets Report Says Smart Grids Will Use $6.1 Billion in Electrical Storage Products in 2018

     

    http://prn.to/SZovLb

     

    Axion mentioned in report
    14 Dec 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    "In 2018, lead-carbon batteries/ultrabatteries will generate around $300 million in revenues."

     

    Theres only one true lead-carbon battery. Based on the last ELBC there are a lot of others trying to make improvements through carbon but even the best of those, even if they don't violate Axion patents, they are still just at the lab experiment stage. Which means they are a good decade behind Axion.

     

    Do you think we split that $300M evenly 50/50 with the ultrabatt?

     

    D
    14 Dec 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Nice find, KG. The report is the first I have seen that clearly and unequivocally distinguishes between Axion's PbC and East Penn's Ultrabattery. $300 million for 2018 split between Axion and East Penn is an interesting number, but the only mention of frequency regulation as relevant to supercaps in the final paragraph makes one wonder about the analyst's distribution of demand.

     

    Maxwell attempted to penetrate the light rail station energy re-capture market a year or two back but I am not aware of the company mentioning it recently. ISTM that Axion has potential for competing effectively for part of the $1.1 billion mentioned in
    "By 2018, supercaps will generate $1.1 billion in revenues from grid-storage, especially regenerative braking on grid-attached light rail and frequency regulation. Here supercaps can result in a 30% reduction in electrical costs"
    PR Newswire (http://s.tt/1wQ58)
    14 Dec 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1317) | Send Message
     
    Jp's article is #1 with a bullet on SA.

     

    Congratulations
    14 Dec 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It will be interesting to see what the volume looks like on Monday. I'm not entirely sure why but major articles usually have a bigger impact on the second trading day than they do on the day of publication. I think it's just that my stuff is complex and investors who pay attention to my work like to think, ponder and weigh before making a decision.
    14 Dec 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Class 8 electric trucks

     

    THE TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS: And How Balqon Corporation (OTCBB: BLQN) is Spearheading Both

     

    http://bit.ly/UYmsb1

     

    "More recently, Balqon bestowed renewable energy upon the Bourns College of Engineering building at the University of California, Riverside Campus with its Megawatt Hour storage system on top of being awarded a grant to produce three on-road Class 8 Electric trucks for the Department of Energy. In addition, the companys HIQAP series a new high capacity lithium battery with more than 20 percent more efficiency than the previous model is miles ahead of the current and standard technology of lead acid batteries."
    14 Dec 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >KentG ... Your link is absolutely not talking about the Axion PbC because it doesn't, even today, qualify as "current and standard technology of lead acid batteries". It is not in any qualifying commercial product. Electric BEV Class 8 trucks I think will be as big a flop as BEV autos. A niche may be found, like freight facility-short hauls, but OTR is environmentally varied, mile intensive & time constrained to make sense for BEV. Class 8 will become electric but HEV.

     

    It would be fun if a battery geek here could figure what a battery pack that delivered 300 H.P (140k-230k ft. lb) continuous for 10 hours would look like or cost & how long the recharge time might be. Short of that, rails will be the only long distance option.
    14 Dec 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    "....bestowed renewable energy upon..." Interesting choice of words. Perhaps Axion can bequeath enhanced dynamic charge acceptance upon illuminated motive consolidators.
    14 Dec 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7426) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    A quick and very dirty calculation puts it around 50,000lbs and $900,000 worth of batteries. I agree a long haul pure EV truck makes no sense.
    15 Dec 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    JRP3: "I agree a long haul pure EV truck makes no sense".

     

    Which explains why we see this in the PR: "awarded a grant to produce three on-road Class 8 Electric trucks for the Department of Energy". No sense = DOE involvement, of course.

     

    I'm either getting really, really jaded or ...?

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Somebody should tell him (LiFePO4 was invented and reported by Akshaya Padhi of John Goodenough's group at University of Texas at Austin in 1996 as an excellent candidate for the cathode of rechargeable lithium battery that is inexpensive, nontoxic, and environmentally benign.)

     

    "Winston Chung
    Chairman of the Board, Director"

     

    "Inventor of Lithium iron phosphate batteries, Winston is the founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Thunder Sky enterprises and Winston Global Energy Co., Ltd., companies engaged in the manufacturing and sales of energy storage solutions and lithium batteries. "

     

    http://bit.ly/UYpUCe
    -
    Thunder Sky (HKG:0729) files suit against Winston Chung

     

    http://bit.ly/TSLjcE

     

    So they have an interest in lithium ion batteries. I've followed them for years from afar and they seem like a good company but they have not been able to gain traction outside of government funded dream programs.
    14 Dec 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    John

     

    Thanks another great article to share with my watchers - friends and family alike
    14 Dec 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    A little oops perhaps when your customer base is focused on efficiency. That's why I posted the Tesla vs Volt MPGe numbers the other day. It's a marketing tool that can work against you if you're not careful.

     

    Tesla Model S 60-kWh Is More Efficient Than 85-kWh Car: Why?

     

    http://bit.ly/W7owzS
    14 Dec 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to have to rely on faulty memory for this.

     

    "But it seems unlikely that a weight difference of 100 to 200 pounds--we're guessing here--could account for a 7-percent efficiency jump. There's something else going on."

     

    Yes there are several other things beyond my pay grade that have an effect. How much is beyond me.
    However the weight of the battery is much greater than he guessed. Tesla used to have on it's spec sheet a weight of 1,4??
    pounds for what was stated as the 40kWh battery. The Musketeers said it was for the 80kWh battery. If it was the 40kWh battery it would make this worse.

     

    the 85-kWh Model S uses a battery pack that's 42 percent larger to achieve 27 percent more range.
    42 % of (I'll use 1,500 # for easy math.) = 423# so a bit under this.
    A good bit different than the 100-200 # he guessed.

     

    There also has been speculation if the smaller batteries would make for the fastest cars. (Supposedly an engineer said no.)

     

    This does bring up another point some may not be aware of.
    A few weeks ago the Tesla site went down for a weekend and off and on on other days.
    Afterwards the 40kWh version was no longer available in Europe. I'm not sure about Asia/Pacific sites.

     

    (I posted about this before.)
    Tesla Not Motivated to Sell 40 kWh Model S? Not On Sale In Europe
    http://bit.ly/RnPe5M

     

    A day or two ago the North American spec sheet was changed. The weight of the battery disappeared and the specific sentence was changed to talk about the 60kWh battery. Apparently there are other places where references to the 40kWh battery disappeared from the US site. As yet there still are many references to it on the site.
    OTOH It is possible it will be dropped here too.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7426) | Send Message
     
    I believe the 40kWh pack uses less energy dense cells than the larger packs so you can't directly compare weight and energy density. I think vehicle weights had to be very close between the models to avoid extra crash testing expenses. I think the article and comment section laid out a number of plausible reasons for the differences between the 60 and 85kWh versions.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    sorry if this was posted I missed it.

     

    US companies lead charge to unleash the potential of the battery for grid energy storage

     

    "The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is trying to develop industry standards for grid battery storage, which should make it easier for utilities to install battery systems in the future. The race is now on to develop new and innovative battery chemistries:

     

    -Boston-based Pellion is working on magnesium-ion batteries.

     

    -General Electric has opened a factory to make a new battery based on two-decades-old nickel-sodium-chloride chemistry.

     

    -Pittsburgh-based Aquion Energy is close to starting large-scale manufacture of sodium-ion batteries.

     

    -Axion Power from Delaware is combining lead-acid battery chemistry with electrochemical capacitors to create hybrid devices that quickly absorb and release charge.

     

    -Even flow batteries, a decades-old technology, are seeing a comeback."

     

    http://bit.ly/TZRUoc
    14 Dec 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Parent site for the prior posted article.

     

    MRS Bulletin Energy Quarterly

     

    http://bit.ly/U1p7AM

     

    I like the article "The tortoise and the hare" ;)
    14 Dec 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... MRS likes the idea of PHEV or at least think that is the logical way forward. At least one commenter here would not be happy reading that economic metric as being most logical. I do like that someone that actually knows better than I think mixed device installations will be commonplace. Axion may never be used for the bulk of any storage facility but I can see a bright future for the company as the front-end fast response shunt device for a utility. One PC to nine battery equivalent could be worth billions. The same mix could work with transportation if they ever get a properly priced flow device.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    DRich, You have to think about the audience and also the point they are trying to make in the article. IMO
    14 Dec 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    "A capacity for change" (talks about supercapacitors) may be worth reading along with the grid storage article. It suggests the Toyota Prius C relies on "20 or so little cells that spurts of power" for some accessories/hotel loads.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Every few days I get an e-mail from SA letting me know that I've picked up a new follower or two. Until yesterday, my total number of new followers since November 16th was 16. Yesterday I picked up 53 more new followers.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    It looks like your years of being a lone voice crying in the wilderness will soon be rewarded. Axion appears to be poised to make the transition to a successful commercial enterprise in 2013. Your predictions of the fall of many lithium battery manufacturers have come true. More and more people are beginning to pay attention to your articles.

     

    Thank you for your tireless efforts at research and writing to inform others about the investment opportunity in Axion Power. I know you will be rewarded with the increase in value of your stock. I also believe your life has been enriched by many friends you have made through this tireless endeavor. Once Axion becomes profitable and enables me to have more financial freedom, I plan to attend Axion's shareholder meeting in order to meet you and others I have interacted with on this concentrator.

     

    I hope you, and all others on this concentrator, have a merry Christmas as we celebrate the birth of our Savior.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    >"I know you will be rewarded with the increase in value of your stock"

     

    I think his bigger reward will be as the go to expert on energy storage trends and consulting. Being an expert to a potentially multi-billion dollar industry is the only thing all that hard-work would have been worth. I have no doubt his number will be called when news and media start doing stories on energy storage and businesses are looking for expert consulting.

     

    The stock I am sure will do fine for him but the other in my mind is definitely the bigger reward.
    15 Dec 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys. At any kind of reasonable billing rate, I've put a couple million dollars of time into the blog. If it was just a question of Axion's stock price it wouldn't be worth the effort, but as jakurtz noted the value of being a thought leader in an emerging mega-industry is priceless.
    15 Dec 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Not only that, but to put four years of blogging in and have the stock at 1/5th of your buy price would appear to be a failure of epic proportions if that were the goal. You don't strike me as that big of a failure.

     

    Now, in three years you will get your payout in stock value with or without you having blogged (although you may have smoothed the ride). I know from watching this concentrator which is the single most important resource ever for a micro-cap stock, that regardless of the amount of information disseminating from it, no investor invests unless they have climbed their own wall of worry, and the guys that do sure as heck aren't chasing the price up. As you have said you may bring it to their attention but they ultimately pull the trigger and right now they are only interested in rock-bottom prices, that will all change when the market catches up with Axion's business developments.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Sunday's e-mail said I picked up another 35 new followers yesterday. The last time I saw that kind of growth in my follower base was back in the spring of 2010 when SA was suggesting authors that new users might want to follow.
    16 Dec 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    Mr John:
    Congratulations, you have 53,674. You've got me way ahead, I have 3. I will work more through 2013.
    Have a good day-Carlos.
    16 Dec 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2282) | Send Message
     
    Norfolk Southern's Juniata Locomotive Shop

     

    Nice 3:49 PR video for NSC gives you a bit of the "big picture" ... plus now you know how to pronounce Juniata :-)

     

    http://bit.ly/WaeGgH
    15 Dec 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    "a rebuilt locomotive is about half the cost of new"
    15 Dec 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    ... And a battery powered rebuild is a third to half the cost of a rebuild with EPA compliant diesel.
    15 Dec 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    That Juniata shop is one hell of an operation. The exterior photos we've seen don't even come close to doing it justice.
    15 Dec 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    JP said "a battery powered rebuild is a third to half the cost of a rebuild with EPA compliant diesel"

     

    That is astounding!!
    Adding batteries and being cheaper than diesel is unheard of.
    15 Dec 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    great video
    15 Dec 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    D L, and raises all manner of questions as to why NSC has to date not placed any total electric locomotives in service (yard "slugs" or OTR) if BELocos are less costly to build as well as less costly to operate.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    I would like to see NSC move a lot quicker! Possibilities we have heard from this concentrator:

     

    1. Probably most important--public embarrassment when the first NS 999 failed.

     

    2. Exhaustive in shop testing and re-design of racking and BMS system.

     

    3. Waiting on federal grant before receiving shipment of batteries.

     

    4. Speculation about limited budget and repairs and upgrades needed on other locomotives.

     

    This doesn't satisfy the emotional need for assurance and info, but it at least gives plausible reasons for the delay.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    After watching that, you really have to wonder if either they just don't have time to work on the NS999 or if they are striping it down all the way and having to completely redesign the racking system for how the batteries are housed and managed. Otherwise, I can't see any reason why a shop like that wouldn't have finished the refit by now.
    15 Dec 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    jv, I've come to strongly suspect there is more to the saga than the four points you reference. Was it happenstance or coincidence that NSC suddenly found a need in '11Q3 for an EPA compliance assessment of NSC locomotive plans just months before GE announced commercial production of battery powered locomotives? Was it mere coincidence that the $400K fed grant to NSC was not awarded until the last business day of the federal fiscal year and after commercial failure of multiple fed funded li-ion ventures? Was it accidental that Axion was not selected for fed grant funding before June of this year and then for $150K to pursue stage I (year 1) of a two stage elimination competition with no probability of significant funding until 2014 at the earliest? I think the probability of coincidence explaining that string of occurrences is smaller than Hiliary Clinton fainting and suffering a concussion that incapacitates her for testifying before Congress on State Department (her actions) regarding matters related to death of our Ambassador to Libya at the consulate in Bengazi.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Lab Tech ... Eh, maybe NS just isn't that into switchers. There is a lot of politicking around this concept and much of it not favorable. I'm sure we will see the NS999 rolling around someday and it will happen when it happens.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    TG's words from the conf call last month, "Norfolk Southern has other subcontractors that may not be in perfect alignment with what their original schedules would have been." I interpreted that comment as a delicate ("we've been chastised a little bit for speaking for them [NS] in the past") way of saying that some other subs are behind schedule.
    16 Dec 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The one point we all need to keep in mind with Norfolk Southern is that they've already been snake-bit by the NS 999, and they were snake bit in the most embarrassing way possible. They did a major press event in September 2009 with Congressman Shuster, the Secretary of Transportation and a warehouse full of guests. The video is here – http://bit.ly/rI7uod

     

    Within a few weeks after the roll out and successful work testing their employee magazine was basically saying "oops, we picked the wrong batteries." – http://bit.ly/wrFRnF

     

    When a $10 billion company has that kind of embarrassment on the first go-round, they take a belt and suspenders approach for the second try, and then use a nail gun for an extra margin of safety.

     

    As Axion investors we want fast because it's great news for our side. In this particular case, the customer absolutely must have a success on the second try and they're not going to rush anything.
    16 Dec 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I understand what you're saying, but I don't understand why they haven't taken delivery yet on the batteries they ordered. I can see it if they continue to test the PbC's when they get them, but they seem not even to be installing, let alone testing, them. That's the part that makes no sense to me.
    16 Dec 2012, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    We don't know whether they've taken delivery yet. One of the big challenges with a project like the NS 999 is that you only get to make one announcement. You can announce the sale contract, you can announce the shipment or you can announce that the prototype has been built and is going into testing. If you try to announce more than once, however, the market immediately tags you with a micro-cap hype label and that's very hard to shed once it attaches.

     

    I think that's the dynamic we're seeing with ePower. The sale has been made and the batteries have been shipped and installed. The last event, but by far the most important one, will be the release of preliminary testing data that shows the truck got x.x mpg with an 80,000 pound load and an AGM battery pack and y.y mpg with a PbC battery pack that's expected to last five to ten times longer. I'd love to see some PR yesterday, but I know the smartest play is to wait until they complete the preliminary mpg testing sometime this week.

     

    The hard reality of the NS 999 is that the customer wants to keep everything in deep stealth mode. In the summer of 2011 I wrote a couple articles on the railroad applications and NS jumped all over Tom because they thought he was talking out of school. I was able to put out the fire by sending about 20 MB of research that I'd collected from other sources, but it was tense for a couple days. When I asked NS for an interview with their VP of operations, I was told in no uncertain terms that they didn't want to talk to anybody until the locomotive was back on the rails. While I continue to talk about the work that's being done, I never forget that this is a real hot button issue for the customer so I'm very careful to stay inside the lines they've drawn.

     

    My best guess is that between their staff and Penn State, NS is probably spending close to a million dollars a year on testing and development. This is deadly serious business for them because the economic benefit of a success is massive and another big oops might be enough to kill the program.

     

    Axion is connected to NS by a rope. Trying to push will do no good but when NS starts pulling Axion damned well better be ready to respond.
    16 Dec 2012, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    I accept that NSC is determined that success will accompany any further electric locomotive rollouts by them. But, I no longer believe NSC's schedule for such rollout has been determined solely by technical or economic performance characteristic of the locomotives or NSC capital budget availability. NSC's 2012 Sustainability Report enunciated clearly their plans going forward.

     

    And, I interpret DOE's $150K grant for as a first step in evaluation and implementation of automotive start/stop as bait to entice swallowing of a step two poison pill.
    16 Dec 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "And, I interpret DOE's $150K grant for as a first step in evaluation and implementation of automotive start/stop as bait to entice swallowing of a step two poison pill".

     

    Am I correct in reading this as you are more jaded about DOE than I? Do you discount the possibility that they have tired of getting pummelled and walking around with black eyes from their misdirected efforts? Maybe they have learned something and decided to try backing an effort that has successfully demonstrated progress through mostly private effort? Doesn't fit the "normal" mode, but you never know.

     

    Anyway, I see it also prepping for a future edict (this admin's been strong on such) that you *will* do s/s beginning on xx/xx/xx, it *will* operate properly for the (near-)lifetime of the vehicle, and it *will* be cost effective.

     

    The current vista suggests only a couple of contenders that might allow all that to be presented ready-made as "best available technology" in a couple short years.

     

    Chu could sure use a winner before he exits the scene, otherwise the speaking/consulting fees might not be as expected. 'Course, the failures could be recounted to generate income on the comedy circuit ... if they weren't such tragedies for many people's lives.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    HTL > "Am I correct in reading this as you are more jaded about DOE than I?"

     

    Perhaps. I note, though, that I distinguish between political appointees and career employees who, like employees in private sector employment, carry out missions defined by those higher on the pay scale. I've known several DOE employees who were every bit as bright and market oriented as I am as well as several who regarded their mission in life as steering energy development and use through government fiat to reduced use of fossil fuels.

     

    If I were King for a day, DOE would disappear except for the Energy Information Administration. Government collection and dissemination of information on composition and scale of market supply and demand improves symmetry of information, facilitating markets by reducing transaction frictions.
    16 Dec 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: I don't confuse bureaucracies with the individuals that populate them. Whether in government or business, the results are generally similar in that the dedicated and competent individuals are (at least temporarily) frustrated in their efforts to do good and worthwhile work.

     

    Unfortunately, even knowing that those gems reside inside the labyrinth doesn't offer much hope for better results once the nasty pattern has been established.

     

    As some of our favorite folks have characterized it, it's like turning a super-tanker to get a change in direction made.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John.

     

    Looks like we'll have to settle for an out-of-the-blue surprise that makes us rich and forget about watching the story unfold step by incremental step.
    16 Dec 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't think anythings going to happen out of the blue, but I do think things will unfold and develop faster than many anticipate. Big companies do the long slow grind thing. Small companies tend to advance by leaps followed by modest retracements followed by bounds.
    16 Dec 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Sounds right to me.

     

    Thanks, John.
    16 Dec 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    "I know you will be rewarded with the increase in value of your stock. "

     

    Not to mention all the tips of appreciation he'll be getting from all of us grateful (and flush) Axionistas. :)
    15 Dec 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    This may have already been posted here back in August. I found it to be quite interesting. --- From Reuters - August 3, 2012:

     

    "Solar Superstorm Could Knock Out US Power Grid - Experts"

     

    http://reut.rs/WaxnAD
    15 Dec 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    185 APC followers and climbing
    15 Dec 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    that is interesting how we gained 20 followers in a few days. Maybe this is a measure of bullishness. Just hope they aren't all trolls.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    Metro, where have you been all these days! You know I can only identify people by icons.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Now 186. The effect of JP's article.
    16 Dec 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    SA makes limited analytic data available to contributors. For 2012, the average SA article got 4,950 page views. My average article got 7,570 page views. The pageview count on Friday's article currently stands at 12.360 and counting. Given the way page views typically accumulate, I expect that Friday's piece will take the number one spot on my 12 month list of most read articles.
    16 Dec 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    sitting by fire and waiting for good news.
    16 Dec 2012, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I love your new boa Metro. I'll bet it's stunning with leopard print meggings. Maybe you could have somebody take a full body picture instead of just teasing us with a head-shot.

     

    Out of curiosity, is this just a Christmas thing or can we expect regular updates as a fashion statement?
    16 Dec 2012, 04:36 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    The full body shot involves an appendage only slightly inferior to a horses -- the intimidation dynamic on this board would change dramatically.
    16 Dec 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I hadn't really considered that problem. There's nothing I hate more than being reminded of my shortcomings.
    16 Dec 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Don't be embarrassed, the beautiful mane flowing down the back of both beasts would put us all to shame.
    16 Dec 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    metro...

     

    Add the 20 to John's article followers growth and page views stats...interesting trend developing.

     

    I noticed some new and old/return posters here and on John's "Lithium-Ion...Bust ..." article.

     

    Yes, a few trolls (jveal bagged one)..., but more with good questions and comments...I suspect more of the lurkers (John refers to at times)...stepping up.
    16 Dec 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I also got a couple obvious stranger things questions and knocked them out of the park by showing the foolishness of the logic. It will be fascinating to see whether the troll continues down the path to nowhere or shits gears to new foolishness.
    16 Dec 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    does what to gears?
    16 Dec 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    LOL. Old drag racers understand when BOTH options regarding gears occur...

     

    Taken in context, and given that spewing gears all over the race track is often something which follows foolish decisions...

     

    Keep it as is, John.
    16 Dec 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I was initially puzzled by Mathieu's question, but I just re-read the comment and see the problem. This darned iPad's a lot of fun but it takes a while to get used to the keypad.
    16 Dec 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    John, like trip said! You may have coined a new phrase. Very descriptive of a catastrophic gear box failure :-)
    16 Dec 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I love writing a memorable phrase, but hate doing so by accident.
    17 Dec 2012, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Serendipity
    17 Dec 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    ... or serenslipity.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    You just made my day. ;))
    17 Dec 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John: "serenslipity" ... Yep. Most transmissions are trashed due to a missed "shit".

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    John,
    "Out of curiosity, is this just a Christmas thing or can we expect regular updates as a fashion statement?"

     

    Seasonal style changes as I'm a victim of fashion.
    17 Dec 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's OK to be a victim of fashion as long as you're not a submissive sex slave of fashion.
    17 Dec 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    thanks for the laughs all. woke up the cats.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    FWIW - PLUG update:
    11/20/2012 - Announces $2.5mil. DOE award.
    11/29/2012 - Announces P&G win of $4.4mil
    12/14/2012 - Form 8- K http://bit.ly/ZwD8t7 :
    "...22 full-time positions will be eliminated at the Company's U.S. facilities. This workforce reduction was substantially complete on December 13, 2012. As a result of the restructuring, the Company expects to reduce annual expenses by $3.0 to $4.0 million."
    If remembered correctly, they had 100+ employees in mid -2011.

     

    Just having paint to watch may be a great gift this Xmas.
    15 Dec 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    What I would like for Chistmas is an electric car.

     

    My electric car would go 80 miles on a charge, even with the A/C or heater on and the max speed would be 80 mph.
    There would be no plug.
    I would get the 2 under-the rocker-panel batteries swapped out by robotic arms in less than 2 minutes at the local battery-swap station.
    I prefer batteries that are 99% lead but it wouldn't matter much what they were because I would not own them anyway I would just pay a couple dollars for the swap.
    The batteries racked in the swap station would be charged properly and participate in V2G when not in a car.
    I wonder if a PbC could be tweaked for this application?

     

    16 Dec 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    In a word, NO.

     

    You're expressing everybody's fondest wish but it's just not going to happen with any known battery technology.
    16 Dec 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John.
    I appeciate the quick way you get my feet back on the ground.
    I must stay focused on good investment ideas and restrict the day dreaming to catching big fish.
    I just realized again that the premise of Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged" was the idea of free abundant energy available to all and simply pulled out of the stratosphere. A real disruptive technology. Perhaps that's why I enjoy the novel so much. Nik Tesla was working on that in those days. So the idea has been around for quite awhile and here we are in 2012 still dreaming about it.
    16 Dec 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    As I recall, Hank Reardon invented a new class of super steel that changed everything. I don't recall a cheap energy angle, but that may just be the impact of age, elapsed time since I last picked up the book and English language movie deprivation.
    16 Dec 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    You are correct about Reardon inventing the new steel but the big changer was John Galt's (as in, "Who is John Galt?") electric motor that pulled unlimited energy from the atmosphere. Galt's electric energy harnesser would allow the steel to be made without burning coal and Dagney would outfit all her locomotives with Galt's incredibly powerful electric motors running on free energy, no heavy batteries required. Of course, the rails would be made of Reardon Steel, but electric locos would be the star.
    Here we are today with NS (and others) trying to create the economic electric motive locomotive dream.
    H. G. Wells and Jules Verne were the first authors I read to get me interested in electric energy being used to power fantastic inventions.
    It's exciting watching the march to a Galt-like Utopian future.
    When I make my first million I will set up an R&D lab in my garage and continue the search for better batteries and more efficient motors and solar/wind power.
    16 Dec 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Galt's creation involved harnessing static energy, iirc. The railroad application (to replace diesel) was part of the plot for the Taggart line... Reardon would of course have see endless applications in his own endeavors.

     

    It all neatly ties together, and the analogy to Axion and NSC is very apt.
    16 Dec 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    You're right and I'm a moron. I'm just glad it happened here in the friendly confines.
    16 Dec 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Well said, Triple. I always wanted a sequel to the story but fantasizing is easier than doing.
    It seems though that by investing in alt energy/new technology we are part of the continuing living story. What will the next 10 years bring about?
    16 Dec 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Jeez, Just got back after being away for a day and I see 123 new posts on John's uber triple star article and he's calling himself a moron in the Shire.

     

    What the heck happened while I was gone!?! lol

     

    A little catching up to do I guess.

     

    Now I recall why people were telling me as a youngster not to stick my nose into the middle of a conversation.
    16 Dec 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    I thought these comments by Nathan Kemalyan MD on JP's latest SA article were excellent, and worth repeating here on the APC:

     

    "The near-term availability of mass-produced lead carbon batteries promises to make fundamental changes in the design of tens of millions of automobiles, heavy transportation vehicles and stationary "behind the meter" energy storage installations. Large corporations are nibbling on the technology, in later-phase testing of prototypes. Companies with industry-scale production lines are lurking around the margins. The entire decade-long funding of this company could easily be absorbed by a single large venture-capitalist willing to bet a couple hundred million to earn several billion in a few years."

     

    This was in the introductory paragraph. Here's the link to the full comment:

     

    http://bit.ly/SAEYYa
    16 Dec 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's Monday morning my time and the analytics on Friday's article are awesome. SA gives each contributor a leader board that shows their most popular articles for the last 12 months and shows the total page views for each article. Friday's piece has already moved into the No. 3 position with 15,300 page views and will almost certainly take over the top spot within a couple days. While I've had some serious EVangelical participation over the last 24 hours, the first couple days of comments were serious, well considered and generally optimistic. While I'll be surprised if the article moves the price, won't be surprised to see a volume uptick.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    I wish there was a way we could know how many of those page views were unique views (i.e. not people coming back to look at comments again).

     

    My experience recently is that having articles that are editor's picks bumps the page views up between 1,000 and 1,500 unique viewers (both on articles that have few and many comments). But you've had quite a few editor's picks and this article seems different.

     

    Very cool... whatever "it" is... stick it in a bottle and sell it ;-)
    17 Dec 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I've always wondered whether SA reports total page views or unique page views. I know the Google Analytics I get on altenergystocks distinguish between the two and I wouldn't be surprised if SA reported unique views instead of total views.

     

    In any event, Friday's piece is already double my average over the last 12 months and heading higher. If history is any indicator, it will probably top out in the low 20s which is pretty rare for me. My all time record is 41,250 page views, but that was exceptional and probably had something to do with the sedate title "It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse."

     

    http://bit.ly/uxsxBl
    17 Dec 2012, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    How could you leave "...And Dance On It's Grave In A Drunken Orgy Of Joy" out of the ending of that title?
    17 Dec 2012, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I had that ending originally but it ran beyond the character limit for titles.
    17 Dec 2012, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    I could easily be far at sea regarding apparent popularity of your Friday article, JP, but I'm thinking clarity of thought framework on a subject many, many people are interested in has a lot to do with it. ISTM a sizable share of investors understand better energy storage systems, and batteries in particular, are important to quality of life and future economic growth potential. Li-ion hopes have severely disappointed in a commercial (if not technological) sense with scale of disappointment reflected to some degree in magnitude of high flying P/E deflation for failed companies. Your article lays out a rational explanation for the failure(s) and offers a practical framework for assessing potential profitable future participation in expected energy storage market growth.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I hope that's the case.

     

    It's a bit early to call a trend but it looks like several of the companies I track are showing the same kind of upturn you can see over the last couple weeks of the Axion price chart.

     

    Other companies that are turning up right now and threatening their 200-day VWMAs include ACPW, ENS, JCI, MXWL, XIDE and ZBB.

     

    The patterns don't show up in other companies, but the parallels between seven of the sector members are fascinating.

     

    For them that want to see for themselves, I've created a Word document with copies of my tracking graphs that you can download here: – http://bit.ly/U4jtNj

     

    While we all know the Axion price graph is dreadful over the last couple years, glancing at the others will at least show you that we are not alone.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    I was encouraged last week when ZBB appeared to hold on to its gains, JCI is approaching its six month high, and Exide is holding in at that $3 range resistance pretty strong, all being done without a lot of positive macro-stuff going on.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Exide actually busted through its resistance in July, but then it issued a crappy report for its first fiscal quarter and that was enough to squash the run. I won't know for a few more days, but this run is looking different.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    I'm feeling lucky about getting good news on the beautiful little expectant mother (the ePower truck) who is carrying our babies and am hoping the test results come out fine. An extreme case of heteropaternal superfecundation (like a litter of pups with different fathers) and I hope she spawns/whelps/gives birth to - whatever trucks do -duodecaplets in the next few months. (thanks wikipedia as couldn't have come up with these terms on my own)

     

    Maybe it was the drunken orgy of joy that resulted in the heteoropaternal superfecundation.
    17 Dec 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Read all about it! Read all about it! Monday morning's APC, 187th edition...feel the newspaper crinkle in your hands with a steamy cup o' jo. Read all about it! Latest news and graphs about Axion... right this way!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Dec 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP, Thanks for pointing out my mistake writing "from" instead of "about". It was too late to edit so I had to delete the post and repost.

     

    That's what happens when APH tries to get cute. :-)
    17 Dec 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Here's an interesting article regarding railroads for 2013 that mentions NS. Many of you are already on top of this but this article put railroads and trucking in perspective for me.

     

    6 Questions for Railroads in 2013
    Railroads should keep rolling, but a dip in the economy could derail the sector’s progress.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/c8o...

     

    "Railroads are gaining ground in intermodal at the expense of trucking companies, a trend that likely will continue into 2013, in part due to tight trucking capacity. The Great Recession took some 1,800 trucking companies off the road."

     

    Railroads became more efficient, reducing fees, thus increasing market share at the expense of Trucking. Now, Trucking must become more efficient by reducing costs in order to regain some market share. IMO, truckers HAVE NO CHOICE but to take a cue from the railroads & reduce costs (ala PbC & electric drive) or face further declines in revenue and importance.

     

    Axion is playing its cards right by developing sales to both industries, which are frantically battling for market share.

     

    Those 1800 trucking companies that went out during the econ downturn are probably looking for ways to start up again. I know I would be. That's a lot of potential trucks. And I would startup with new ePower trucks rather than try to make it with the "old" technology that couldn't compete with rail.
    17 Dec 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Tim
    so in the "battle for market share."
    Axion would be the high tech 'gun runner' supplying both sides?
    17 Dec 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Froggey, I like that.

     

    The railroad says they get 480 mpg of diesel fuel.
    With PbC's on board will they get almost 1,000 mpg of diesel?
    Atlas is Shrugging.
    18 Dec 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the fuel savings in rail will be a good deal lower than the fuel savings ePower is claiming for their Class 8 tractor because locomotives already use a highly efficient series electric drive, but even 10 or 20 percent on a locomotive that burns 150,000 gallons of diesel per year is nothing to sneeze at.
    18 Dec 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Time to reiterate?

     

    Axion Power Concentrator 183; Dec. 5: Latest News [View instapost]

     

    John - looks we are starting to do some number-firming by some of the folks: my below stated guesstimate of .39 mbbl/d for truck diesel is what, some 5.9 billion gallons per year at $4 is $24 billion a year? Just for some of the OTR hybrid trucks.

     

    Nov 25 11:40 AM | 5 Likes |Report Abuse |Link to Comment Axion Power: A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward [View article]

     

    John - a back of the envelope set of calculations for each of your mentioned PbC applications with a stretch indicates that with crude at $100/bbl, reductions in crude of 2.5 million bbl/day would put nearly $100 billion annually into the pockets of US consumers - what an economic stimulus that would be.

     

    Diesel (of 4.5 million bbl/day consumed):

     

    1. Loco: 10% reduction from 88 mil bbl/yr = .24 mbbl/d.
    (including switchyard battery and OTR locos)

     

    2. Trucks: 100% of idle at 665 mil. gallons/d = 0.24 mbbl/d.

     

    3. Trucks: 40% of OTR hybrid transport = 0.39 mbbl/d.

     

    Gasoline (of 9 million bbl/d consumed).

     

    4. ICE S/S: 30% of vehicles at 5% red. = .14 mbbl/d.

     

    5. Small bat.Hybrids: 30% of veh.at 50% red. = 1.4 mbbl/d.

     

    and the stretch is Jet Fuel (at 1.5 million bbl/day consumed).

     

    6. e-Taxi(WheelTug): 5% red. from 1.5 mbbl/d = 0.08 mbbl/d.

     

    There is the seed; now to the refinement of the numbers by others on both or all sides of the arguments.

     

    Nov 22 04:01 PM | 9 Likes |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
    19 Dec 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
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