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  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    first?
    17 Dec 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3885) | Send Message
     
    Wonders never cease!
    17 Dec 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3885) | Send Message
     
    Youse was 1st, ax. Had I not first drafted, "How can it be" before editing it to read "Wonders never cease" I might have beat ya to the starting line.

     

    C'est la vie.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, So you guys lapped the field and in order to make up for silver you picked up bronze as well with another run at it? Jeez, Give the guy with a limp a break!
    17 Dec 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Pike Research offers
    "Wireless Charging Systems for Electric Vehicles"

     

    2.4 Key Players
    2.4.1 Evatran
    2.4.2 Qualcomm
    2.4.3 WiTricity

     

    http://bit.ly/12vvq1t
    17 Dec 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Nice idea I guess. Just off-the-top I can't see the market being large enough to justify the capital for such a network unless they incorporated feeding homes also.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    Wireless charging has really improved in efficiency the last few years. It has the potential to make recharging seamless and invisible.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >jrp3 ... wireless charging may be all that but the network is analogous to building out a telephone network. Very capital intensive & needs large FCF to justify the debt required which means large customer base or very expensive electricity. I'm not going to spend the time to figure the nitty-gritty because 2020 seems optimistic in what I see as a very small market
    17 Dec 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3885) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, I am under the impression that wireless charging, with or without improved efficiency, will likely always be more inefficient and consume more power than hard wired connections.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Wireless might make sense for dense areas of public transit like buses. Since these systems have been out for some time I'd suspect the data exists somewhere.

     

    As for wireless and personal vehicles. Adds one more layer of cost and inefficiency. Perhaps it makes sense for the taxpayer to fund this to make the rich eco-elite's lives more convenient.
    17 Dec 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    I read something on wireless charging a few months ago. The author said it hurt the lifespan of the battery.
    It seemed to me to be a more general article and I would need to read a better source before I put too much stock in it and how much harm was to vague to be very useful.
    Perhaps someone here can add to or refute this info.
    17 Dec 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    froggey, I can't imagine any reason why using contacts for charging vs some method of wireless energy transfer would have a negative effect on battery life. Perhaps the application discussed in the article was looking to quick charge the battery in some wireless fashion?

     

    The electronics in the application should make the method of energy transfer invisible to the battery.
    17 Dec 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco
    It was the first I'd heard of it.
    It was a one sentence 'by the way', this hurts the lifespan of your battery. There was no other mention of it in the article.
    17 Dec 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    "hurt the lifespan of the battery"

     

    I'm more concerned that it might hurt the lifespan of my few remaining brain cells. Past studies have shown higher rates of cancer from folks that sleep under electric blankets and that live under high-tension transmission lines.

     

    There has been *no* study done showing safety of wireless communications devices when placed close to the body for extended or frequent periods.

     

    There was a study that showed bone loss in the hips of folks that carried their cell phone there.

     

    No links - I read it and remembered it.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    maybe it's like charging a phone battery frequently during the day rather than waiting for lower internal power levels? idk, seems like a battery specific call in any case.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    mathieu: IMO it a matter of cell DNA affected by high-frequency and/or high-power (relatively) radio waves (affected by proximity). Battery type s/b irrelevant as any emissions it might have would be much lower power than the RF needed for GPS, cell tower syncing, etc. The radiated power charging the batteries, regardless of the battery type, would be the high power and/or high-frequency issues.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    nice volume already, could this be the day to let the sub .30 zone behind us???
    17 Dec 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    The EIA just released their 2013 Annual Energy Outlook. Once again, they've pared the 2020 forecasts for all classes of electric drive.

     

    HEVs fell from 557.9 last year to 518.3 this year

     

    PHEVs fell from 147.6 last year to 133.7 this year

     

    Pure EVs fell from 40.1 last year to 15.2 this year
    17 Dec 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Any level II people see 50k share bids as .285 or .295?
    Seems like they aren't showing even when they'd be the best bid.
    Thanks

     

    Edit: one filled, never mind.
    17 Dec 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    make that 200k volume :)
    17 Dec 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    Wireless charging on the road is a bit of a stretch. Does anyone really want to rely on it working to get to their destination. There are plenty of people uncomfortable with cell phone radiation, much less levels where high power is the goal. The most practical application is wireless charging while parked. It's not any more exciting than inductive charging for cell phones. though.
    17 Dec 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    GM had inductive charging for the Impact. There I think their intentions were safety and patent license agreements. It had little to do with convenience as you still had to load the charge paddle into a slot on the vehicle.
    17 Dec 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    12/14/2012: EOD stuff partially posted from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 66, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 314472, AvTrSz: 4765
    Min. Pr: 0.2710, Max Pr: 0.2975, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2840
    # Buys, Shares: 33 104574, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2879
    # Sells, Shares: 33 209898, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2821
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.01 (33.3% “buys”), DlyShts 26728 (8.50%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.73%

     

    I seem to be back in good health and should be able to post daily again. Picking up from my prior posts ...

     

    We hit my targets of $0.27-$0.28 and apparently have started to recover from those levels. I had also mentioned that if Maya's 5th Elliot wave completion was correct, we should see an ABC “corrective wave”. Although I am really, really, really uncertain WRT EWT (Elliot Wave Theory), I believe we've seen that corrective wave (but it's down at the “fractal” level that I make this judgment and so I could be way off) and will shortly begin a “motive wave” up, wave 1 of a 5-wave sequence. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are “motive waves” and should be up. Waves 2 and 4 are “corrective waves” and should be down. Our target for Wave 1 is $0.34 before any real risk of reversal comes into play. But this is a "no man's land" area and I expect resistance below or above it. $0.34 should be only a pause at most.

     

    Repeating, I'm very poorly versed in this stuff and I mention this only because Maya had brought the subject up and he does have experience in this area.

     

    Turning to more traditional TA ...

     

    We have now penetrated, and fallen back below, our falling resistance of the long-term descending trading channel the last two times it was challenged. The last penetration was stronger and I expect we will now break (permanently?) above it very shortly. It currently sits at ~$0.30. We have several oscillators in oversold condition, often considered a strong indication that a reversal will occur. But only the stochastic is showing early bullish indications. Volume profile is still uncertain and doesn't yet support a strong assessment of bullishness.

     

    Price is trading at (and predominately above now?) the 50-day SMA of $0.2863 recently, except for Friday when it struggled.

     

    In my experimental charts areas, the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff continues to suggest, if I interpret correctly, that the “big uglies” (thanks John!) are no longer with us as the current reading shows substantial change from the days when we know they were in:

     

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

     

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

     

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

     

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

     

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 27.68%, min: 3.59%, max: 135.35%

     

    The loss of “big uglies” may also be supported by Reg SHO & Rule 4320 Status, http://bit.ly/uGVJsb where we see that (AXPW) fell off the threshold flag listing after 9/28/2012.

     

    Volatility in averages for daily short sales, buy:sell and trade size continues to reduce. I've added some trend lines to these charts (will be up later today) that make this more apparent.

     

    My V1.0 inflection point calculations suggest another move up will begin. The later versions (still need much refinement) also support this. I've enough data that I can now show 200-day calculation for these. This also suggests that a long-term change in the buy:sell trend is under way with a bias towards improvement.

     

    A last note: the daily short sales have been abnormally low. This strongly suggests that one or more market-makers are playing our stock from both sides, making covering buys, having temporary long positions, and selling to the market to increase profits. This morning's early action seems to support this as an early attempt to rise was absolutely crushed by quick market-maker sales (IMO) driving price back down to $0.282 – an action no retail trader or investor would take in this scenario. Regardless, buying pressure seems to be developing as price is now back to $0.29 as I pen this.

     

    “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    With all the information that is becoming available along with JP's wonderful articles suggesting the future is quite large for Axion I am finding it very interesting that there are still more sellers than buyers in this little stock!

     

    I am liking the volume so far this morning!
    17 Dec 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    HT-
    Glad you are feeling better.
    17 Dec 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Thotdoc ... and all the others that I have not yet thanked!

     

    Thanks to each for your good thoughts!

     

    Let's hope our stock starts feeling better too, although with a jab at $0.32 this A.M. followed by immediate hammering back to $0.282 I suspect something foul afoot.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    ATDF and TEJS are the only buyers and sellers this morning it appears!

     

    What's your take on who they are representing?
    17 Dec 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Don't recall hearing about them before.

     

    http://bit.ly/VM08Ot
    17 Dec 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    They have been real active recently on both sides of the trades!
    17 Dec 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: Who they represent can be nothing but unadulterated speculation by *me*. Not even qualifying as a SWAG.

     

    I did get reminded this A.M., in a private conversation that, I had been leery of Special Situations due to their apparent exit and re-entry into AXPW from the EOY 2011 into 2012. If I had to throw a dart, they seem as good an (alleged) miscreant as any. But we've also heard Blackrock mentioned by others and Mannituck Hill has been mentioned.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: Yes. IIRC, they started getting very visible about a month ago?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock and Manatuck would both be showing up in the short report numbers and given the totals I've seen to date I believe they're both already gone. I do, however, have my reservations about Special Sits.

     

    Back in the bad old days, it was not unusual for investors who knew of an upcoming offering to short shares prior to the pricing in a deliberate attempt to force the price down so they could buy at a discount to a distressed price. The SEC ultimately made that kind of behavior illegal but it used to be a major problem.

     

    With a slight variation it would be entirely possible for an investor who had a large block of shares to strategically dump them in an effort to depress the price on the theory that he could reinvest all the proceeds in a subsequent offering at a depressed price.

     

    That kind of strategy strikes me as pretty risky in light of Axions expressed desire to find strategic money this time around, but one never knows. About the only way to fight that kind of attack is with widespread buying that takes the evil doer out of the game before his nefarious plan comes together.
    17 Dec 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if we will revisit last year's tax-loss selling event? Might be the last time you see this stock at these levels.
    17 Dec 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, we don't know what the tax rates will be in 2 weeks, but I am expecting capital gain or loss to double next year. I also don't expect to know what the rates for January will be until February. If one has a long-term loser to sell now, you can deduct 15%. If you can wait, it will be 28%, at least. Of course, that 18% in a single stock can be eaten away pretty quick in a market downturn.

     

    Can you say banana republic?
    17 Dec 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    I've put up a new experimental instablog with back-filled statistics for the missing days and some small additions to a couple of the charts.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3885) | Send Message
     
    "put up a new experimental instablog"

     

    Thanks
    17 Dec 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Johnson Controls appeals A123 sale to Wanxiang

     

    http://aol.it/12vRCsl
    17 Dec 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Just a thought on "wireless charging".

     

    If it is for buses and other fixed route vehicles, why? Some form of automated cable extender that snakes out from overhead or underneath would work just fine. Near zero losses. An electronic hand-shake with the vehicle to be charged could guarantee that the contacts would be de-energized unless the actors were in position and the cable plug safely in the socket.

     

    Wireless high power transfer strikes me as a nice way to consume government money.

     

    17 Dec 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    There may be applications where it makes more sense to bury a pad in the ground instead of building a rather complex mechanical device, subject to the weather. It also has the potential for charging on the go. Wireless charging efficiency has increased quite a bit.

     

    "This wireless transfer scheme has an efficiency of 97 percent."

     

    http://stanford.io/U6nl09
    18 Dec 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): In spite of apparent attempts to drive price down, we just went to a positive buy:sell of 1.02:1 on a small batch of trades totalling 65.9K @ VWAP of $0.2825 (which may explain price crush - some mm had a buy at a low price order?). These occurred in 21 seconds a few minutes after a "lure" of 500 shares at $0.2855 was dumped into the pond.

     

    Through 12:42:10:
    # Trds: 90, MinTrSz: 145, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 515235, AvTrSz: 5725
    Min. Pr: 0.2805, Max Pr: 0.3150, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2879
    # Buys, Shares: 40 224845, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2906
    # Sells, Shares: 35 221490, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2868
    # Unkn, Shares: 15 68900, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2828 (not really unknown - just haven't been flagged yet)
    Buy:Sell 1.02:1

     

    Subsequently, 3K traded at $0.2895 (certainly "buys").

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Those 65.9K shares were "sells" putting buy:sell back to 1:1.28.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Did anybody already ask this question ?

     

    What is the damage to human and animals under continuous bombardment of radiation ? This will pose serious concern whether overhead or underground cables are utilized.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Ishikawa,
    I was thinking the same thing about the wireless recharging. No matter what some studies show, I'm still suspicious of living near cell phone towers, electric lines, etc. and don't believe it has no affect on the health. Call me a neanderthal, but just don't like the thought.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Ishikawa,
    It depends on what you call radiation. We are constantly under bombardment by solar and cosmic radiation. If you go up in a plane it increases. Radioactive sources emit gamma or beta radiation depending on the source, and each will do different levels of damage depending on dose, and what is exposed. There are studies suggesting that exposure to high power electricity or microwave towers can cause irritation and damage over time, but those are different than radiation.
    17 Dec 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Greetings LT,

     

    But those are exactly the kind of radiation that is in access to the gamma and beta radiation that we are exposed to on the daily basis if wireless charging infra structure were to put in place. That is also the reason why people do not want to live close to the electric power tower. I think I agree with Metro more. Thanks for your comments
    17 Dec 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Another 124K @ VWAP $0.2821 just went in 4 minutes. They'll be "sells" for sure.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    I'm growing more convinced by the minute that somebody is deliberately screwing with the stock price. The only way to fight that kind of guerrilla attack is with widespread buying that takes the evil doer out of the game before his nefarious plans come together.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I've thought so for quite some time. Just can't figure why.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Back in the bad old days, it was not unusual for investors who knew of an upcoming offering to short shares prior to the pricing in a deliberate attempt to force the price down so they could buy at a discount to a distressed price. The SEC ultimately made that kind of behavior illegal but it used to be a major problem.

     

    With a slight variation it would be entirely possible for an investor who had a large block of shares to strategically dump them in an effort to depress the price on the theory that he could reinvest all the proceeds in a subsequent offering at a depressed price.

     

    Let's pretend for a moment that you're a Super Smart Vulture Fund and you own a couple million Axion shares. If you sell your shares strategically to keep the price at $.28 you'll have a good argument the next placement shouldn't be priced higher than $.22. So you sell 2 million sharers at $.28 and then buy 2.4 million shares at $.22 in the offering. That's 400,000 shares for free unless the market zigs when you want it to zag – or unless volume ramps to a point where you run out of stock before the plan comes together.

     

    This kind of behavior is something I would consider appallingly dishonorable if not borderline manipulative, but some of the fund managers I've met are notorious for pushing the limits whenever they can.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Guys, I agree.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Watching every trade the way I do, the volatility and high/low vacillation, one trade to the next, makes me think John has it nailed. I don't believe any combination of retail traders or investors would permit what I see today.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    John / HTL: As an active (almost daily) participant in Axion, I have to agree with your above thoughts. Something or someone is deliberately screwing with this stock. My sixth sense tell me it's Spec. Sits again. I accumulated (yet again) on these intra-day dips. I don't believe they posses enough firepower to maintain a price below .30c for much longer. Secondly, I have to believe your positive articles put a dent in their firepower. Stock back at almost .29 as I write this.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Their last report showed that SS had 2,608,000 shares at the end of September. We've had market activity that struck me as odd for the better part of a month. If somebody's selling strategically for the purpose of creating uncertainty it doesn't take non-stop pressure, but it does take sudden pressure with big enough blocks to make a difference. I would also guess that their dry powder is running low, but the only way to find out is to make them shoot the entire arsenal.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    more they sell today less they control tomorrow as long as other buyers show up.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    O.R.: And regardless of the pressure, pps keeps coming back above the 50-day SMA. It's as if some retailers or TA types see the "dips" below as entry point opportunities.

     

    If true, they'll swamp whomever is trying to depress price ... and poor retail traders mental state as well! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Well John, I think your article got some attention. No other news I can see that would cause the added volume. Of course, there doesn't always have to be an immediate reason. But I still lean toward your article as a stimulus.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    I absolutely believe it's John's articles: Look at the jump in followers over the weekend. Some bastard(s) is/are wanting this stock to trade in a narrow range. The volume tells the story.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    OR, I'm leaning that way as well. The traffic to Johns article tells the story IMO.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    When the volume goes way up and the price doesn't budge, something is rotten behind the scenes. I'm not quick to don my TFH, but I know enough to be suspicious when I see the market acting suspiciously.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... If you're right & it is only one "bad" actor, then on a million share day like today with less than a penny movement they are on both sides and willing to take a loss. Now that is showing great faith both that they can get a better price later and that the upside far outweighs any loss now.

     

    Else for that it would just be for spite.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    You put sugar in somebody's gas tank for spite. You don't lose money for your partners unless you think you can make it up on the backside. Money has no emotions.

     

    The guards can protect the Bastille from an unruly milling crowd by firing the occasional well placed shot. When the crowd gets direction, stops milling and attacks the Bastille en masse, a route is guaranteed.

     

    After all, there's only one of them but there are hundreds if not thousands of us.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    I vote for "route" $0.66 (for starters)

     

    http://bit.ly/V3AKXE
    17 Dec 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Could it be as simple as the idea that the 2013 placement is going back again to those who bought at .35 in the last one and maybe they are seeing a chance to unload anything they have left and potentially buy back in in the low .20s in a month or two? =(

     

    I'd think they would already have an idea of where this thing will go off at; and if they are predicting a number significantly lower than .30 then these high volume days might be tempting to unload.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    It's possible, but it would be very difficult to orchestrate and frankly more than a little risky to participate in.

     

    The trading patterns I'm seeing have the look and feel of strategic dumping, meaning that sales are timed to beat the price down every time it starts to move. As I said earlier, that kind of behavior is appallingly dishonorable if not borderline manipulative. If a single stockholder does that for his own benefit, the risks are fairly minimal. If a group of holders get together and coordinate their actions, it raises the specter of a conspiracy to engage in a questionable activity. In my experience there are very few people who would willingly take that kind of risk.

     

    There are lots of market participants who will individually act in their own self interest, but they're generally really scared by joint or collective action to achieve a desired result.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    I thought the company was going to try to raise money through the Axionistas first this time ;-)
    18 Dec 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Jon: I don't know about you, but Ben would have to lend me his printing press first! :-((

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    It sure would be nice if something like that could happen, there really is the potential for nefarious manipulation in these low-priced penny stocks. Getting as many shares as possible wrapped up in Axionista's hands would be a very good thing. I know there are some pretty deep pockets around that could probably swallow up a couple million shares a piece. We already have several who have voiced 1M share holdings and those are just a couple people who have chosen to come out of the closet.
    18 Dec 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Just because several of the "class of .35" seperately arrive at the conclusion that they can beat down the stock enough just by buying and selling in a narrow spread (perhaps as little as a penny or two times a few hundred thousand shares every week or three) would not comprise criminal conspiracy unless someone could prove collusion. Also, how much market savvy would really be needed to notice the strategy once even one of the group indulged?

     

    Its possible that we are, indeed, seeing just such a scenario.

     

    I find the timing altogether "too convenient" to be anything BUT some form of manipulation, with this explanation perhaps the most likely but hardly the only potential answer. The timing also seems to be pointing toward a specific share price goal, ie, something under $.30, to form the basis for the average which will be computed some period prior to the actual funding (probably essentially the same method used for the last round), less the customary discount. With the manipulation present, I would think that the averaging period may have already begun...

     

    We can only hope that Axion (despite mentioning that the same group had already been approached about a new round of funding) might take this situation to heart and seek another path.
    18 Dec 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I agree with scenario Tripleback but then I would hesitate to call it manipulation and more just risk management. If I put myself in those guys' shoes and bought say 800K shares in February; at the end of the year knowing there is an 85% chance I will be asked to buy another 800K it may be just a good investment decision to trim down my current holdings in anticipation of potentially being in the next offering. The purpose would not be to beat down the price but to relieve some capital. Anything near .30 would seem like a pretty safe place to do it at since that is where all of the moving averages are.

     

    As a retail investor and a small one at that. I really have no choice but to ride the whale like a barnacle and hope it swims toward piece and prosperity, because their is no way for me to time or predict the whales' actions.
    18 Dec 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I hear you, jakurtz...

     

    Its just that the method and timing we are seeing does not jibe with your scenario at all. Someone seeking to do that could sell gradually, within the scope of the market to absorb the shares at a higher average price. Everything about the recent event points to a very different plan.
    18 Dec 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Meh, I'm not good figuring out micro-cap stock psychology as Axion has taught me in spades. I await ePower sometime this week to see if it moves with a reason because I can't think today's volume is front-running.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Today's volume would seem to be more end of trend volume, ending our down leg.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... So you're saying, sans price movement, this might be capitulation volume? I would expect end of trend to be marked with more divergence of indicators and what I'm looking at says weak continuation.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Today's volume is probably a response to Friday's article which apparently went a long way toward clarifying some nagging questions about how the wide variety of lead acid batteries relate to each other in terms of cost and relative performance. That's always been a big source of confusion and this is the first time I've felt like I nailed the explanation.

     

    Over the years I've noticed that the only real response my articles generate is increased volume for a couple days. It usually peaks on the trading day after publication, and trails off over a day or two after the volume bump.
    17 Dec 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I'll take that as a reasonable explanation and matches what I see in the technicals (for whatever they are worth). Here's to hoping this volume is not "hot" money.
    17 Dec 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    The one group I don't appeal to is hot money. I can't talk about Axion in terms of short term catalysts. Without short term, hot money isn't interested.

     

    That being said, I expect that we'll be wishing we had more willing sellers pretty soon. Micro-cap stocks always seem to swing back and forth between too much supply and too little supply that correspond well to periods of undervaluation and overvaluation.

     

    If the Axionistas are as patient as I think they'll be, a period of very tight supply is a virtual certainty unless Axion sells a lot of new shares to hot money investors.
    17 Dec 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    On the other hand, we still have no UL certification. Some of us saw that coming, but still, it's once again a disappointment.

     

    NSC timing has disappointed.

     

    Lack of any PowerCube sales has disappointed.

     

    No follow on from the Net Zero Naval Yard ... after another disappointing delay even in delivery.

     

    ePower had delays too from TG's CC "promises."

     

    Do you think he's now learned his lesson about making any kind of promise that he doesn't totally control?

     

    Can you really blame anyone from saying screw it, I'm tired of this and selling?

     

    At this point, you have to wonder whether they might even hold a PR about "good" but not required disclosures till after the new year. At this point, I don't see any Hub sales that would be material to this quarter even if we did get the UL cert. Didn't Rosewater say they were going very slow at first to make sure the first customers were totally satisfied?
    17 Dec 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Overvaluation would be a novelty.
    17 Dec 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Possible. We've seen this play out with AXPW a couple pf times and it meshes with some stuff I've studied that says that a real "spike" in volume often indicates end of trend.

     

    We hit my re-trace targets of $0.27-$0.28 and appeared to try to bounce off those, but today is the first day so can't rely on that.

     

    The important thing, *if* it holds, is that we did a 50% re-trace. After such, it is not uncommon to see another leg in the opposite direction.

     

    But with AXPW, it's also common to see it continue down. But that has to end at some point ...

     

    One reasonable rising near-term support originates at the low of 11/13 and touches 11/21 low and 12/14 low. We've bounced off that in each case and remain above it today.

     

    Even if I originate it at the low of 11/12, which IMO was an "overshoot", we are still above the support today even with the increased angle of incidence with an additional touch *only* at the 12/14 low, so we wouldn't have as much confidence on a single touch.

     

    Adding in the recent penetrations *above* our long-term descending resistance and I think a break up would not be unexpected.

     

    Although it's not EOD yet, all the oscillators I peek at are curling bullishly. RSI up to neutral, MFI left oversold, Williams %R moved out of oversold, stochastic %K crossed above it's %D and left oversold, ADX is trying to make a cross again.

     

    On the candlestick front (which I don't know that well), I've read that today's pattern suggests bears are losing control.

     

    The continuation pattern I *think* you should be seeing is a continuation of the up trend that began 11/21. I think that's the first leg entering a rising trading channel.

     

    As usual, I could be way off, but it's my best thoughts ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    John: regardless of cause, volume boost might be enough to exhaust, or at least tire, anyone who might be trying to move price down? That's assuming a limited number of shares in hand and/or a risk management process in hand if they are shorting.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Shorting is almost impossible on the OTCBB because shares that haven't been approved as collateral by the Federal Reserve can't be deposited in margin accounts.

     

    Brokers can't loan shares to short sellers unless the shares are deposited in a margin account.

     

    Unless a would be short seller can contact a large holder directly and negotiate a direct stock loan, the only person who can sell short is a market maker in pursuit of his normal day to day trading activity.
    17 Dec 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Nothing like volume to clean up and take the stock one way or the other. I like liquidity. Let's hope we get the direction we want. I suspect we will.

     

    News on the truck might help but it is early to start crowing success. But an update from ePower would be nice.
    17 Dec 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Yep. I went to ePower's site hoping ... alas in vain.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    wt:

     

    I don't see holders selling.

     

    Big volume and no price movement looks like flippers to me.

     

    A raise is coming. Traders bought between .25 and .29.

     

    Now they're taking their pennies.

     

    Dollars are going to take a couple of years.

     

    That's us.

     

    IMO
    17 Dec 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Push the rope and it'll happen.....maybe.

     

    Frost & Sullivan consultant suggests European EV success will require radical lightweighting plus enabling legislation

     

    http://bit.ly/V3DcgX
    17 Dec 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Electric Cars: Are we nearly there yet?

     

    "I very much doubt we’ll ever achieve the vision touted by today’s politicians and environmental activists, but I suspect car makers will be resourceful enough to invent something even better. One thing that’s for certain though, the technology needed at the right price is not yet a reality, nor will it be, unless we see a breakthrough in some good old fashioned chemistry."

     

    http://bit.ly/VM8e9g
    17 Dec 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I don't pay much attention to the established auto makers attempts at EV anymore, thanks to JP and the APC's.
    I follow the developments of Kandi Technology Corp. (KNDI: Nasdaq) which today announced that the folks responsible for testing/certifying cars worked overtime this weekend to certify 300 Kandi EV's ready to be delivered to the market in Hangzhou City. This is great news because...
    This Wed. at 8am eastern time Kandi will hold its annual meeting with questions/answers time.
    One of the most important questions will be "How many of the 5,000 EV's that were ordered to be delivered by end of 2012 as part of the larger 20,000 order, have actually been delivered, at $6300 each sans battery?" And how many EV's have been delivered on other contracts?
    ZIC Europe is an auto seller in Italy which is promoting inexpensive Kandi Ev's with the battery to be supplied by an electric utility.
    Fiat, I don't think your expensive EV ideas stand a chance in the mass maketplace against Kandi.

     

    I am long KNDI AXPW CPST

     

    17 Dec 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    I'd say in Europe Kandi would be competing with the Twizzy. Not to mention that Better Place has shown the problems with renting and swapping battery packs.
    18 Dec 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Kandi is a different animal. I'm long them also. I like the product because it is a simple little car built for the particular market. A rental car to go around the city for a day. A commuter vehicle for those who don't require safety as a first priority. A cheap little electric car you can own and switch batteries instead of plugging in from a 20 story apartment.
    It makes sense in China. Not much anywhere else. At least not now in its present form. Just my humble opinion.
    18 Dec 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Futurist
    Are you saying Kandi is less safe than other cars made in China?
    Perhaps i should split that into two groups those made by Chinese and those made by outside companies in China or importing to China?
    If so do you have links?
    18 Dec 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Froggey77,
    I do not have a spec sheet for the Condi EV vehicle. I have always assumed that the car was small, light, and built under less stringent safety standards than most autos manufactured for theEuropean or US market. I highly suspect that this is one reason the price can be so low.

     

    Now, this is not to say that they are built to different standards than other Chinese built autos, manufactured for the Chinese market. I probably should not have made a blanket statement without checking first, but for some reason I believed this to be true.

     

    As to the Condi's shipped overseas I suspect some changes are made to the vehicles to meet the standards of those markets. i.e. Italian order
    19 Dec 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Futurist
    Thanks, yes I expected they would be similar in safety but your statement got me to thinking. I'm not sure what they have in the way of regulations.
    Without regulations individual cars could be all over the map.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I've suspected market makers to be the only ones with not only the capital but also trading advantage to dare manipulate penny stocks. And I don't mean scalping bid/asks or even 10-20% trades over the week. I mean deliberately depressing the share price for long periods while accumulating, then releasing the pressure for a quick multibagger. Only then would it make sense to hire the likes of OMY for years at a time.

     

    I think someone like Special Sits might be the cause but they are taking a much greater risk this time. This time there might be a strategic financing to take away their chance to reload. And, last year demonstrated that the stock could run up in January so that even with the discount at 35c, they might have sold for lower!

     

    Say I wear a TFH but I think AXPW is being primed by the market makers for the big time.
    17 Dec 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    And TEJS and ATDF start the epic EOD 1/100th of a penny battle.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    All I know is that if it isn't one of those Big Uglies selling all those shares it is one hell of a "look a like" imposters!
    17 Dec 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: I'm betting on John's TFH alleged miscreants.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Wow, impressive volume and trading range! Just tells me that there is definitely something going on that eludes me! Who has 1 million shares to dump and what is the motivation at this moment in time, got to love this game!
    17 Dec 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Somebody just dumped 100k on the market.
    17 Dec 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Let's not let the attention to detail make us overlook the positives: finished the day up +2.1%.

     

    On normal stocks this would be a winning day.

     

    We're no different ITR.

     

    In spite of apparent attempts to hammer price into a six-foot hole, we are resurrecting... so far.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: unfortunately, weak risng price volume. Someone really tried to dump at the end. Still finished above the 50-day SMA of $0.2862.
    17 Dec 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    It seems like someone is waiting for JP to put out an article to provoke some buying excitement so they can dump into it. Maybe we should go back and research the days following JP's article releases and review the trading activity following to see if there is a pattern.

     

    Just thinking!
    17 Dec 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Volume surges for a day or two after an Axion related article are pretty common. What's unusual is having somebody so obviously sitting on the price. With each passing day I'm getting increasingly convinced that somebody is trying to hold the price down in an effort to force a low price on the next offering. Mercifully I don't think anybody has enough stock to force that kind of outcome once the shenanigans are exposed. There are simply too many Axionistas.
    17 Dec 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I had similar suspicions concerning all the EOY action last year before the raise... but I eventually convinced myself that I was only being paranoid... but is it possible we're now seeing the same perp/player back for a second act?
    17 Dec 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    You're only paranoid... until it's true.
    17 Dec 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Yep, I'm scratching my head too... We closed up 2.68% today on volume North of 1 million shares. The 100k dump in the last half hour of trading looks suspicious.

     

    Should be an interesting week!
    17 Dec 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    There just seems to be a never ending supply on the sell side for a very long time without any real easing. I know that this cannot continue for ever but with all the info out there that we think is positive it makes me question why the huge selling pressure. What data are they using? The only thing I can come up with is what JP suggested regarding financing manipulation.
    17 Dec 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I don't have any answers for today's volume or price movements.
    But I locked up another 5,000 shares @ .28 near the close that will not be available for less than 15.00.

     

    17 Dec 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    I still think we will see a clearer picture in the New Year. Just too many factors for a stock like this at EOY relative to personal interests that have nothing to do with the valuation of the stock. Taxes, portfolio adjustments, fiscal cliff, possible tax code changes etc. In the mean time......?
    17 Dec 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    I am in agreement with you regarding too many issues going into 2013 and that has a definite effect! Oh by the, how wise are we? Fiscal cliff, etc.. ,

     

    All I can say is that I have always been lucky and my luck seems to be obtained when I am going in the opposite direction of the main flow. Therefore with all the data I have collected here along with the many hours of searching and researching I am convinced that this story will be successful at some point in the future, how successful is still up in the air but I am perfectly fine with that! Up will be up!

     

    RBrun357
    17 Dec 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, We have enough REAL problems without our incompetent representatives (lords?) making artificial crisis points so they can look important. Solve the real %^&* problems which, BTW, they are most responsible for.

     

    We'll see on Axion. Every time I look the stars are not quite in alignment yet but they keep getting brighter and the count keeps going up.

     

    Maybe I'll get some of your luck! I wouldn't mind standing on a rocky shore holding up a couple 2 kilo lobsters. lol
    17 Dec 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I like lobster!

     

    The day I will rejoice will be when we hear officially that the PbC is "in service and generating additional sales revenues!

     

    That is going to be another fun day!
    17 Dec 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Seems eerily like last year at this time.
    17 Dec 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Metro: Absolutely. Is this when SS exited last year before buying back in at beginning of '12? I don't know. What I think we can be sure of, at least based on my experimental stuff, is that whoever it is has a lot less company this time around.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I agree, it's eerily similar. I wish I had some dry powder for the Jan run!
    17 Dec 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    There certainly are some parallels between last year's stock price chart and this years, and they both suck, but the magnitude of the suckage so far this year is far smaller on both an absolute and percentage basis.

     

    In the final two weeks last year the closing price dropped only 10%. If we have a repeat this year, that would only mean a retest of 25 cents. We saw worse just a month ago.

     

    If we're talking repeats, the first two weeks of the new year is what would really get me going.
    17 Dec 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Mr I,

     

    My 0.25 order is in.
    17 Dec 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    metro: we're kindred souls... I was thinking the exact same thing!
    17 Dec 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Last year, with the available information, I was estimating a January 6 inflection point - opining that it was end of the selling - and I think it actually was about January 4.

     

    Timing may be similar this year, but guessing that investors will be more wary of the impending capital raise as we got taken by surprise last year and then the heavy sellers came out of the woodwork.

     

    So IMHO January will be an interesting month with what I believe will be an inflection point coupled with wary buyers because of the capital raise. Don't know what is going to happen - might as well not have posted. It's early morning and trying to clear my muddled thoughts with a cup of coffee before walking the dog.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Things moving towards normal? Short sales 194,200, up from the prior 5-day average of 17.04K. It's only 16.72% of volume, but that's up from the 5-day average of 9.61% for the same five days.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Great. Just what we need. That and a sharp stick in the eye.
    17 Dec 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: in my POV, this *is* good. It says that sales came in for shares *not* in market-maker control already. The only way we see high "sells" w/o high(er) short sales is when the market-makers already have the shares under their control or there's a high percentage of intra/inter-broker trades.

     

    SEC rules are firm: if you sell shares not under your control you *must* flag the sale as short.

     

    And, of course, certificate conversions qualify for this scenario.

     

    So our recent low short sales said that we were seeing shares sold that were inter/intra-broker trades or were already in the MMs grubby little hands, most likely from either covering buys of prior short sales or (is it possible?) the shares transferred to them prior to sale.

     

    Seeing a move to "normal", but not excessive levels, suggests that sell order activity may be returning to normal, if it wasn't normal before.

     

    For today's action maybe it means that the uptake was unexpectedly large and the seller that we theorize was hammering price had to rush in more sell orders to keep price from rising? :-))

     

    I can hope, right?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    I hope you're right HTL. Fingers, eyes and words crossed. Or is it crosswords?
    17 Dec 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    And this my fellow Axionista's is why automakers are going to recognize a huge push back on SS if they keep loading AMG batteries that need to be replaced too often on the customers nickle.

     

    Access denied: DIY car repairs may soon be a thing of the past

     

    "Try to replace a battery on many of those cars that have a stop-start system to cut the engine when the car isn’t moving (such as the latest BMW 1-series) and you will find that the stop-start doesn’t work unless the computer is appropriately instructed."

     

    http://bit.ly/12l0GBj
    17 Dec 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    It sounds like you won't be able to replace the light bulb in the overhead light by the time they get done. Well, they've been saying for years that the dealers don't make anything on sales of cars. I guess this is one way of the automaker making sure their dealers make money.
    18 Dec 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    I spoke with a long term colleague that went into auto sales at a local GM dealer. They sold new cars for a level of credibility and the eventual service work it would bring in. No money in low to mid level new cars. They were making good money on used cars.

     

    I felt for years GM put parts in cars that were far less than what they could have for the same money in an effort to support the service channel. Also made changing the parts a pain so you'd be more inclined to take it to the dealer. In my mind it was pretty obvious.

     

    I think this is the new way for the industry to better lock in the service business. It sure as heck isn't for the customers advantage.
    18 Dec 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • bwarnecke
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    it also could be someone with a whole lot of money and an ego to match that wants to prove JP wrong on AXPW??
    17 Dec 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Welcome aboard bwarnecke. Are you a follower yet?

     

    I'm always interested in what might bring a person with such a strong opinion to the sight.
    17 Dec 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Very long PJM presentation:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/ceo...
    17 Dec 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Until solid sales announcements hit the airwaves I can't buy into the conspiracy theories. Do I think the stock is technically broke? Yes. But its a stretch for me to say someone is playing with the stock. We've been languishing in this price range for most of the fall/winter. We need sales announcements and this thing will take off like a rocket.
    17 Dec 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    I will respectfully take the other side of that argument. There is a capital raise on the horizon, and the stock is behaving suspiciously... especially today. Someone above pointed out this happened last year... they say history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
    17 Dec 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3885) | Send Message
     
    When shares are trading at near $.29 and price is driven to $.28 repeatedly by sales of multiple thousands of shares only to jump back to $.285 - $.29 and the pattern repeats for days there is more than a little reason to think manipulation is occurring.
    18 Dec 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Friday's article has moved into the top spot on page views with over 17,300 views in four days. It is my most read piece over the last 12 months and my guess is the final count will be comfortably over 20,000.

     

    Yesterday I published a new article on "economies of scale" and "experience curve effects" that is very relevant to Axion stockholders because it gives us a frame of reference to estimate future costs of the PbC as production volume ramps. I know many of us are concerned that the first NS sale went off at about $450 per battery. If the BCG formula I discussed in the new article is even close to accurate, pricing should be competitive with AGM by the time volume ramps to a couple hundred thousand units.

     

    If you haven't given it a read, you really should.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Dec 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    I've got to hand it to you, John.

     

    Engaging with your detractors is quite a performance.

     

    In a sense, by going up against Musk's acolytes, you're going head to head with him, which I must say takes a lot of balls. Not to mention that you've got to have your facts airtight because the jackals are just dying to pounce and clean your bones.

     

    I wish I knew as much as you and could fight it out with these guys. It must be quite invigorating.

     

    Imagine "a Swiss lawyer," as one guy tried to demean you, going up against the popular press's golden-haired boy wonder.

     

    Wow.

     

    Pretty soon you're going to making a presentation on TED!
    18 Dec 2012, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Musk is a very bright guy, but all his past successes involved moving electrons for their information value rather than moving them for their energy value. The first is an incredibly high margin activity. The second is not. I've seen nothing in his background that demonstrates a particular expertise in manufacturing a product, which frankly is one of the most difficult occupations on the planet. It's also been the one area where my clients have consistently failed over the years. The guys in white coats can make magic happen in the laboratory. The problems arise they try to move the magic to an assembly line staffed by guys in gimme caps.

     

    The mythology that's arisen around Musk is breathtaking. He's gone from being a human being to a demigod and the cult following is amazing. I took a shot at the cult status back in June with a fun piece titled "Tesla Motors: Automaker or Graphic Novel."

     

    http://bit.ly/NZJ09N

     

    Axion was a very scary deal when I first looked at the company. I've seen repeated failures in R&D and frankly wasn't interested in doing another early stage speculative technology deal. The one factor that changed my view and ultimately locked down the deal from my perspective was Bob Averill. He was the biggest funder of Axion before I did the deal and he remained the biggest funder until the Quercus Trust came along in 2008. All told, Bob and his family invested several million dollars in Axion.

     

    The thing that made Averill so extraordinary in my mind was a long track record of starting with invention stage ideas for human joint replacements, negotiating the regulatory approval process in the FDA, creating new manufacturing and marketing operations, and growing his companies to a point where they were attractive acquisition targets for Fortune 500 companies. I've known a couple guys who did that trick once or twice. Bob did it three times in a row, which is why he had millions to pour into Axion.

     

    Averill has always been a tyrant, which is exactly what I expected from him. He knows manufacturing inside out and isn't willing to tolerate anything that doesn't live up to the standards he knows to be essential. I've had more than my share of battles with Bob, but I'll follow him anywhere. He's a guy who knows how to take ideas and turn them into profitable products and that ability is scarce as hens teeth.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:06 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    John,
    You sure know how to render an article that brings out the fuedin'. Threats of physical violence while boasting of boxing skills, wanting to spit on each other - let the record show that I have a 30th degree black belt in several martial arts, three large Black Russian Terriers, and an arsenal of automatic weapons - I dare anyone to disagree with me.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:35 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    I have a130lb BRT male. 8 years old and the best dog I have ever known.

     

    Great breed.
    18 Dec 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Perry Coleman wrote an article on Kandi on Dec.4
    Kandi Technologies - What's That Light?
    It's a comment on shorts 'who better get out of the way'.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    There was a comment by Arthur Porcari some of you might find informative.

     

    Perry- you do bring out some interesting points on KINDI.

     

    As an old Market Maker in the late '70s through late '80s, I had the opportunity to work with some of the legendary short seller back in the day before black box programs, computer trading, certificatless trading and the up-tick rule was still in effect. Back in those days when the playing field was level, I learned two important things. 1) There were no "old, bold" short-sellers. and 2) I short never voluntarily covers when a stock is running up fast; or down fast. They shorted more. They basically only cover voluntarily when they break the "will" of the stock and its investors finally capitulate and start liquidating their long positions. They do this by putting in small to medium sized bids (usually hidden) and buy slowly on downticks.

     

    Re. #1. No matter how good they were, they all met their Waterloo by being stuck in a short squeeze they couldn't get out of. #2; the reason they couldn't get out was they stayed with the old adage of shorting more on fast run ups and run downs.

     

    Their rationale behind this behavior is that when a stock is collapsing, they needed to keep the downward momentum to break down the chart and scare out nervous holders. When the stock is running up, particularly on news, they are forced to short more (the bigger the news, the harder they short); both to contain the move avoiding momentum buyers from stepping in, and to also average up their short. The last thing they want to do is to have the Wall Street crowd "smell the blood in the Street" of a troubled short seller and pile in.

     

    There is another old adage that is appropriate and we have been seeing a lot of lately in KNDI and that is "You make the stock look weaker when you want to buy, and stronger when you want to sell". When you think about it, this is just common sense. But most investors don't think about this while worrying about their stock appearing to collapse. Jim Cramer often talks about this strategy when he ran a hedge fund trying to add or unload a position. Over the last couple of months we have seen two overt attempts at this by a fiction writer attacking KNDI with innuendo and disinformation. Both attempts failed due to underestimation by the short of KNDI's loyal, intelligent and knowledgeable shareholder base.

     

    After each attempt, in spite of a very short term drop in the stock price on heavy volume, within a day or two the stock recovered all and more of the drop and the ensuing short interest just went higher. Lets face it. If they really thought KNDI was a bust company, they would encourage the stock higher. You make a lot more money shorting a ten dollar stock than a four dollar stock.

     

    No, as you point out in this article, KNDI is a time bomb in the shorts portfolio and the short knows it. In fact, I am sure he regrets the past two hit articles in that these articles brought a lot of new "eyeballs" to a Company. In KNDI's case, the two articles did not deny KNDI is on the Precipice of being the China leader in EV's, only that in the opinion of the author; KNDI would not "pull it off".

     

    So now these articles have probably added thousands of new lurkers who never heard of KNDI to add it to their radar. Up until a few months ago, KNDI had no Investment Funds holding. But recently, one of the Countries largest Funds Invesco reported an initial six digit purchase. A few more of these, and the short here is a "Dead Man Walking".
    18 Dec 2012, 03:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    In the small world department, Art is an old friend of mine and we hadn't touched base in years before I found out that he was working Kandi. We tried to do a deal together in the late-80s that didn't come together because the client was too rigid, but I've always respected Art's grasp of market and trading issues. I think he's done a good job of creating a well informed stockholder base for KNDI, although I don't think the KNDI fans can hold a candle to the Axionistas.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:46 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    can't
    18 Dec 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • bwarnecke
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    I have been a "lurker" for some time. I am restricted from being too involved in sites like these. I have avoided the fad energy plays over the years but did get drawn into the lithium concept only to discover the flaw in my thought process after reading JP's superb work in this area. I have never owned a penny stock before this venture and now I am 2 million shares up to my rear end in this one! I plan to talk to some traders about the strange behavior in this stock, something just doesn't feel right however, given all of the positive developments there still isn't one firm contract or even the delivery of a sale made in April to NS. So sellers could be the smarter ones here. I plan to visit EPower's site after the first of the year, Andy and I are working on that now, I just need someone to accompany me that knows more about class 8 trucks than I do, which could be anyone above age 10!

     

    I would like to thank a number of the participants for a very thoughtful dialogue and technical knowledge that has contributed to a fast learning curve. The seller(s) are obviously not gone, for some reason they do not want this stock moving up, if I had a large block to sell there would have been many opportunities to let the price move up before gently feeding shares in. There have been over 52 million shares that have moved from one group of owners to another since February. That is over half of the float! I can not imagine that the big uglies have not been taken care of!
    18 Dec 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Bwarnecke: Welcome and I hope it ends being well-spent time here, when you can participate. As you've seen, contributing what we can is what it's all about here and I know we all look forward to whatever you are able to help with.

     

    Those 2MM shares should make a comfy seat somewhere down the road! :-))

     

    Good luck and don't be a stranger!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    bwarnecke--our own Tim Enright is one of our best truck experts, as he's a truck driver, among other things. Just an idea, and Tim I hope you don't mind, but you may want to PM him about going to ePower, or perhaps he knows someone else who can help you.

     

    Oh, and welcome to the Axion world!
    18 Dec 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    I don't mind and was thinking the same thing. bwarnecke, please feel free to pm any questions you might have...
    18 Dec 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tim. Would love to hear what you and/or bwarnecke find, to the extent you can tell us. I would think ePower would welcome a technophile trucker and a big AXPW investor with open arms.
    18 Dec 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    12/17/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 165, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 1161760, AvTrSz: 7041
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.3150, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2854
    # Buys, Shares: 75 419720, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2888
    # Sells, Shares: 90 742040, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2834
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.77 (36.1% “buys”), DlyShts 194200 (16.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.17%

     

    Interesting day, as you already know. Very high price volatility (12.5% range), high volume, early price rise followed by apparent attempts at hammering down. In spite of that the price kept coming back to push above the 50-day SMA ($0.2862 - yesterday was $0.2865). Theories surfaced, which I support 100%, that someone was trying to depress price in preparation for the next share offering.

     

    Why do I support it? Because I can think of no combination of retail investor or trader action, in light of (recent) past volume and price combinations that make this behavior likely. We had recently (Friday) completed an expected re-trace to the $0.27-$0.28 area and the “natural” next step would be an attempt to continue the up trend began 11/21. Apparently the attempt was being made – that's obvious from the uptake of offered shares every time price dipped below the 50-day SMA – which may have no relation to anything other than that's what I observed happening.

     

    The net result was that we both closed up 2.1% in spite of the pressure and the VWAP managed to eke out 1/2% gain! Yeah, no biggie, but in light of the pressure ...

     

    The only downside is that the selling pressure tried to continue right into the close, preventing a rising volume on rising price into the close. Got the price, but not the volume.

     

    Had a couple 50K trades go and others I'm sure were as large but were broken up into smaller tranches. Late in the day the seller(s) put 172.9K, that went at an aggregate $49,020.81, into the market in the last 16 minutes as part of the effort to hammer price.

     

    I suspect that the “unexpected” uptake accounts for the rise seen in short sales, which I noted in the concentrator. I'm wondering if the seller had to put in a late sell order in an attempt to keep price suppressed.

     

    In a more normal vein, we closed above the 50-day SMA and I can't say the attempt to move up has failed yet. We got rejected, today, by a short term descending resistance ($0.3153 AFAICT). But we were at (what I believe to be) the end of the re-trace and saw a typical (for other stocks) end-of-trend possibility suggested by the volume “spike”. We also saw (as I would expect) a higher low and higher high coming off what I think was the bottom of the re-trace at $0.27-$0.28.

     

    Unfortunately, for AXPW, the end-of-trend spike doesn't work out as often or as reliably as I've seen on some other stocks.

     

    Recent price action's similarity to last year's EOY action was noted by several in the concentrator. You may recall that it seems Special Situations exited their position and then had re-entered in early 2012.

     

    Anyway, in spite of all that the oscillators I watch on the charts are are curling up towards a bullish attitude. All are still weak though as they just started the turn. Several have left oversold now.

     

    If the uptake is as strong tomorrow, we might see that $0.3153 broken and the up trend continuation will have room to continue. If not, ...

     

    On my experimental charts stuff, the average trade size today moved right above the moving averages and settled at the trend line, near the middle of what I believe is retail sizes. As noted though, we did have some larger trades that would skew the results, but with today's volume I think it would be inconsequential.

     

    The buy:sell managed to continue improvement towards a more normal range in spite of the selling pressure. We've got some big numbers falling out of the 10-day SMA though, so unless a major buy percentage emerges in these few days we'll see the 10-day SMA continue lower for another day or two.

     

    A discussion of the inflection point calculations is omitted in the concentrator, other than to say that they are currently in a negative attitude that seems to be a precursor for a coming bullish signal. They aren't there yet, but are close if behavior remains consistent.

     

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" discussion omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    there were some large buyers yesterday and they have deep pockets, accumulation is taking place! This could be the last of Q!
    18 Dec 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Been there done that.

     

    Part of what the PbC has been through. This does not replace all the additional in vehicle testing and long term testing that components need to go through.

     

    Sadistic Battery Abuse Makes Hybrids, EVs ‘Ford Tough’

     

    http://bit.ly/T4F9aQ
    18 Dec 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    "and Ford is showing how serious it is, investing $135 million in the new facility."

     

    For a lithium ion testing facility ... sickening.
    18 Dec 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Great link, iindelco. It lead me to another one at that site:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/clv...

     

    From the article about Ford & Edison collaboration on an EV:

     

    "As the year wore on, the rumor mill had the EV coming in 1915, then 1916. Details varied: It would cost somewhere between $500 and $750 (between $10,000 and $15,712 today) and would go somewhere between 50 and 100 miles on a charge. Even today, reports vary as to whether the car would have a brougham or cabriolet body. Edison, in an interview with Automobile Topics in May, 1914, divulged no details and made his best “It’s coming, just be patient” speech of the kind General Motors has perfected in recent years with the Chevrolet Volt:

     

    He called attention to the fact that a new automobile, especially one embodying such radical features as a $500 or $750 electric pleasure car naturally must have, cannot be designed and constructed in a few weeks.

     

    “Mr. Henry Ford is making plans for the tools, special machinery, factory buildings and equipment for the production of this new electric. There is so much special work to be done that no date can be fixed now as to when the new electric can be put on the market. But Mr. Ford is working steadily on the details, and he knows his business so it will not be long."

     

    This quote from Edison is especially cheering:
    “I believe that ultimately the electric motor will be universally used for trucking in all large cities, and that the electric automobile will be the family carriage of the future. All trucking must come to electricity. I am convinced that it will not be long before all the trucking in New York City will be electric.”

     

    PbC, where are you? Been waiting a hundred years now...come on...the trucks need you!
    18 Dec 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Ford is investing $135mm in the entire facility (which obviously does more than just torture LI batteries). "Vehical Electrification" would apply to all hybrids, including start-stop micro hybrids, lest we forget.

     

    I'm looking forward to the news blurb where Ford mentions conducting tests of Axion batteries in that same facility one day...
    18 Dec 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... If that news blurb you're awaiting comes with all the frequency BMW has mentioned the PbC, then that fine day will be sometime around 2020. I'm sure they will keep us up-to-date with the latest Li-on developments though.

     

    It's Tuesday. Best day of the week for making PR announcements (during the 2nd worst week to make them). Tick-Tock truck? Tick-Tock Tick-Tock
    18 Dec 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Timzinski, Some day Toto we'll be driving quiet and pollution free down this here Yellow Brick Road.Well maybe not pollution free. We'll ONLY be able to cut it in half.

     

    Chorus of munchkins : That's all, Only in half! Oh My. ;))
    18 Dec 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, only in half is pretty good to date. I think we are a few bricks down the Yellow Brick Road already.
    Only someone as innovative and economically savvy as Edison would think of putting coconut shells into a battery then making it work! ...especially when the herd was playing with very expensive resource constrained materials.

     

    When I get my garage lab set up we may 'git down the road.
    What item is in great supply and is fully renewable?
    Banana peels!! Every day billions of banana peels are thrown in the trash. Why not stuff 'em into batteries?

     

    I'll call it the "Banana Battery" and the case will be bright yellow, to signify the Yellow Brick Road, of course.
    I'll design them to be re-cycled at end of life as...bricks...for yellow roads. The markets will eat 'em up.
    My DOE grant can fund my Elon-style marketing campaign. Anyone know an energy storage savvy lawyer who could help with my IPO?

     

    disclosure: soon long YLLW
    19 Dec 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    I think it has potential, particularly if you add a second business line for diversification – recycling Tesla batteries into bricks.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Timzinski, lol. Very funny. Be careful as I suspect the coefficient of friction may be very low on your recycled bricks. You'll get there efficiently but always miss your stop.

     

    In all seriousness I've read articles about fresh water filtering opportunities for poorer areas of the world and coconut shells were selected for the reason you mention. Low cost and readily available. Very important factors for mass market roll out.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    uuuh...Tesla batteries are ugly. Maybe they could be used as underlayment, out of sight, out of mind.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, once we are on that Yellow Road it's straight to the moon, there will be no stopping!
    Hmmm...I wonder, will Elon select the Banana Battery or the PbC (C for coconut?) for energy storage on the Martian colony?
    19 Dec 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Somebody already beat you to that idea. When Umicore recycles lithium-ion batteries one of the biggest recoveries is a slag they sell for construction fill. They also get an iron, nickel, copper, cobalt alloy that has a very pretty pinkish color. They haven't figured out how to economically turn the alloy into useful metals yet but they're working on it.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    There was a huge market for pink slime.
    Maybe there's a market for pink jewelry made from cheap Li-ion slag polished up and priced like diamonds!
    Entice one of those pop stars to wear it, have Jay Leno present it, Oprah shows it off...wow...that could be worth more than the original battery business!
    19 Dec 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Jewelry by Elon, what a concept. I'm sure he could sell it to adoring fans with vague suggestions that it will make you cash flow positive for at least a week before the sewage hits the air circulator.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Excellent concept, John.
    Every adoring buyer of Model S and X, Y, Z will buy one of the pretty, large pink necklaces as an accessory...maybe a hood ornament too. That's... wowie!... at least 20,000 per year!
    Adding value to junk is big profitable business.

     

    19 Dec 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Maybe you could cut a deal to cycle pieces through Elon's bedroom like they do with flags that have flown over the White House.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Anderman: Li-ion capacity far outstripping demand as automakers focus more on hybrids, less on full EVs

     

    "Global automotive Li-Ion battery production capacity is outstripping demand five-to-one as automakers refocus on hybrids and away from full electric vehicles, according to Dr. Menahem Anderman’s recently released xEV Industry Insider Report. Anderman is founder and chairman of the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC); the 13th annual conference is scheduled for February 2013 in Pasadena, California."

     

    http://bit.ly/TXFkna
    18 Dec 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    ADAC/Stiftung Warentest test finds Varta AGM battery as top for start-stop

     

    http://bit.ly/U6uNbO
    18 Dec 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps Stefan can take a gander at this and let us know if there is any added meat to the SS battery testing that was done.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ua8HWM
    18 Dec 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article ii - it discusses a straight comparison between AGM and EFB. Generally, it states that the AGM is expensive at over E200 and would need to be changed every 4 to 5 years.

     

    Then it moves to EFB which it says comes in at under 200E and the battery they tested came in almost as good as the AGM, but had much shorter life.

     

    At end it states that they tested three regular starter batteries and then recharge time would be too long for those batteries to work effectively.
    18 Dec 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Stefan.

     

    You're too kind.
    18 Dec 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    ZBB ships EnerSystem to Navy's San Nicolas Island

     

    http://yhoo.it/TXIPdd
    18 Dec 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    0.29 -0.02(-6.72%) 4:00PM EST

     

    Sigh. It's not just us where no good deed goes unpunished.

     

    Open: 0.34
    Day's Range: 0.29 - 0.34

     

    Sale had been announced back in October, so it wasn't "news."

     

    Whether shipped means revenue recorded this quarter is not clear to me.

     

    Further,

     

    "During the next two years, ZBB's EnerSystem will be tested and certified to maintain power quality and perform load management for off-peak power produced from the wind turbine and diesel electric power delivery system at the Navy facility on San Nicolas Island."

     

    Does this mean no follow on orders from the Navy for 2 years????

     

    Damn.
    18 Dec 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Good question. I hope not.

     

    If they are very impressed from the start that might help.
    18 Dec 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Wtb

     

    I am thinking the same cast of characters in AXPW must be playing in the ZBB story! Stock price and behavior has similarities!
    18 Dec 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... That's the way I'd read it. All testing & no sales. Just another battery company with a good product that just cries out to be tested. Meanwhile large installations will be outfitted for testing with Li-on like that 10Mw facility I read about a few weeks ago.
    18 Dec 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    "Does this mean no follow on orders from the Navy for 2 years????"

     

    Sadly, I think it will be just like AXPW's deal. Your key point that keeps popping up is "2 years".....that has been the year since we started getting info...all the big numbers start coming in around '15-16 and that just kills me to think we have to keep waiting, waiting & waiting while the big auto's, grid, & utilities move at their snails pace.

     

    The only good thing is, in the next 18 months we have to have something change because AXPW has to add manufacturing capacity or partners . I would assume it would take a year to build out, get certified , etc.
    Therefore, maybe some quiet fleet testing this summer and some orders in '14, but that is probably a year off IMO.
    Lastly, in time, I think ZBB and AXPW could be a good fit to expand their niche mkts. I would vote for a merger at some point.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    Here is the only way to find answers to many of our questions:

     

    Drive to New Castle, sit down with TG and lay a certified check for say $20 million in the center of the table. Offer to buy all the outstanding shares that are now approved.
    Of course he will have to open the books, explain future expansion plans, partners, etc.
    You can expect to sign a NDS agreement...and for a bargaining chip you sign to keep the shares in lockup for two years.

     

    Otherwise, we wait and watch the paint dry.

     

    IMO, I believe the big boyz know the answers on whether PbC has a place in the mkt...and also the approx. timing. All the crazy stock pps move and big sellers bailing etc of late sorta confirms it too. I am sure there is some retail profit taking on shares bought at .25 or less....but also a big fish is also trying to push it lower. Why I don't know? I expect it has to do with the new capital raise....
    Quite frankly, I am surprised TG hasn't already pulled the trigger before Jan.1.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    While I can't guarantee much about Axion because I've been out for so long, I can guarantee that nobody has any better information than we do. The idea that "big boys" have been tipped is nonsense because I taught management that giving big stockholders preferential access to information can get you fitted for an orange jumpsuit.

     

    Tom and the BOD don't want a low priced offering any more than we do. On average their shares cost them well over $1.25 and their stock options are worthless until the price hits $1.50.

     

    People on the Concentrators cringe at the idea that somebody might get shares 20% to 30% under their purchase price. Put yourself in management's shoes for a minute and ask how you'd feel if somebody got in for an 80% discount from your purchase price.

     

    The new money only cares about the new money and whether it makes a profit. Those of us who've been around for years are far more interested in the next offering price than anybody here can even begin to imagine. We'll suffer our beating in silence if there's no other choice, but we won't like it one little bit.
    19 Dec 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Good morning everyone:

     

    The new money, the new shares and the new markets:

     

    New Markets:

     

    -.Hybrid trucks: ePower, billones in revenues.
    -.APU-Truck: Billones in revenues.
    -.Residencial HUB Storage: Rosewater, billones in revenues.

     

    Conclusion: Issued shares, captures new money but find new markets.

     

    Have a good day-Carlos
    19 Dec 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    UBSS accumulating: got ~100K @ ~$0.28 and has another 100K bid in place @$0.28.

     

    A seller is still here, albeit much less aggressive than yesterday so far, as the 1st UBSS bid, remaining at 78K at the time, was taken out along with better bids in one swatch of trades in 26 seconds.

     

    Maybe $0.28 is the heavy seller's target?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Hope the bidder and seller are not the same and all volume today is not a game of shares flowing from MM's left hand to right hand.
    18 Dec 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    So far BugEye, not. Early sell actors are the usual - CDEL, ATDF TEJS - lowering asks and a few others raising bids. UBSS has been the big taker and I can't see who's completing the sell side of those trades.

     

    But UBSS just got their second 100K+ tranche completed on the bid of $0.28.

     

    UBSS still there at $0.277 x 5K - so only "normal" look ATM. NITE and ATDF on the ask at $0.2864 x 2.5K and 8,150 respectively.

     

    Look and feel decidedly different from yesterday's feel, although the results may not be varying from yesterday's yet very much.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I had no trouble accumulating shares at .28c today. There is someone who does NOT want this stock much north of .28c.

     

    I'm been in this game long enough to smell a fish.
    18 Dec 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    A couple thousand Axionistas were collectively able to eat and digest five whales.

     

    A guppy in black and white greasepaint just isn't that impressive.

     

    I'll leave the rest of the lecture to Mick

     

    http://bit.ly/UJ6pKV
    18 Dec 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    I believe there's fish also. But regardless, we have to avoid getting carried away with obsessing on that to the point we discount out-of-hand the possibility that some (large?) portion of what we see may be "normal".

     

    Now, IMO yesterday was abnormal in all regards I can think of *except* that the action was in the area I had expected ($0.27-$0.28) and the volume higher than expected and the volatility and the ...

     

    Well, OK, it wasn't normal in almost *any* fashion! :-))

     

    Today is another day and it is normal in many fashions:
    - reducing volume after a large volume spike;
    - compressing price spread as an (apparent?) bottom *may* have been made and;
    - folks afraid to jump (far?) until they see what's next develop,
    - etc.

     

    Turns aren't made on a dime or in one day, usually. That's why we have things called "consolidation", short, medium and long-term. Keep in mind that as recently as 11/12 we had a low of $0.2018 and rising price with slowly rising, and halting, volume since.

     

    From there to the high of $0.32 on 12/3, there's a lot of potential profit in hand if some retail traders or investors got in. It would be poor risk management for many if they didn't take some off the table.

     

    So although I'm led to believe that yesterday was "manipulated", some of yesterday was probably some smart folks saying "Get out while the getting is good", due to good practice and/or fear.

     

    These are not the ones we term "strong hands".

     

    Today's smell is so different that I have *no* doubt in my mind that today is much more "normal". Folks who hung in yesterday don't see signs of continued move up today and likely think they should be more cautious here. And we helped them reach that conclusion with talk of manipulation, a big seller hammering price so they could buy lower, ... This is no blame on us - it's one facet of things we need to be aware of here and so we share freely.

     

    I don't begrudge any of these folks managing their risk and/or taking their profits while they can. The deck is stacked against them, and us, and I say "HOORAY FOR 'EM".

     

    For those that are momo traders, I just say ")%%^(**&#$$ on 'em". :-)) And you gotta believe there's some of them in that bunch of sellers too.

     

    In summary, I *do* believe there's someone trying to do nefarious deeds, but today is *not* an example of it. Today is normal folks trying to get out with their butt intact.

     

    Thinking this way may make me ... "WRONG"! =>8-O But I'm OK with that and know that if I am right the weaker hands, momo folks, ... and other retailers will get themselves positioned such the downward pressure dissipates and the move up I believe is near will develop.

     

    To think otherwise makes me a deer in the headlights because I just *know* that whomever is manipulating has more information and $ than I do and how can I fight that?

     

    So I choose to not be overly concerned about it other than trying to assess it.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Maybe I'm not emotional enough. :-))
    18 Dec 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    I too had no difficulty in filling a small (2K) buy order today and for that matter every couple of days over the last 2 to 3 weeks. Almost all about midway between the daily high and low. I have better things to do with my time than haggle over 100ths of a penny. I buy what I can with the dribs and drabs that come into my account that I don't need for necessities.
    I suspect that there are many doing much the same and so if there is someone who is trying to drive the price lower by selling they may find that they run out of stock because we are more like a sponge. We suck in the shares but don't easily release them.
    18 Dec 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3885) | Send Message
     
    HTL, IIRC that 11/12 low of $.2018 was intraday and very limited volume. I have no idea of volumes traded sub $.2333, but buys at that price would be needed for a 20% gain at $.28. If I have read OTCMarkets.com charts correctly, 376,950 shares traded at $.28 today with only 4K of that volume (2 transactions) traded in blocks of less than 5K shares. Of 11 transactions @ $.28 I read off the chart, 6 were trades of 21,800 shares or more.

     

    Maybe someone really wants to get out of a large AXPW position. But I can think of other explanations.
    18 Dec 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: it's not so much the $0.2018 and/or it's volume - it's the hit $0.32 and then start down. That's what's going to move folks off their position, IMO. They've seen this movie before and don't want to sit through the second reel again.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I didn't hook any shares at .28 Tuesday. Had a 5,000 buy order in all afternoon, no luck.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Getting interesting now ...

     

    UBSS back at bid 100K x $0.28 while CDEL bids 100K x $0.284.

     

    Asks showing std 2.5K blks at $0.2864, 54, 9.9K x $0.2897.

     

    If this ain't just stubs, we have a supply demand imbalance developing.

     

    The Q becomes: is the seller still serious today or are we about to see wave-2 effects of John's article?

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT CDEL moves in w$0.285 x 5K bid, hiding their 100K for the moment. ATDF comes in w/10K bid $0.2841.
    18 Dec 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Apologies if this was linked before from Viridity website: It is only one page, but some of the highlights.

     

    http://bit.ly/Pde8Uu

     

    "PJM Performance Based Regulation Implemented as of October 1, 2012
    Early results suggest lucrative opportunities for batteries and other fast responding resources
    ...... Batteries, and other resources that can respond almost instantaneously to PJM's direction, do a much better job.

     

    .......Resources that perform quickly and accurately in response to PJM's direction contribute more to protecting the grid's reliability — and now they are getting paid for that greater contribution.

     

    Early results from the new compensation rules are encouraging. Over the first two weeks of October, the average total price for regulation (reflecting both capability and performance) is about triple what it had been in the last week of September. Traditional resources have performed at levels as low as 40%, while batteries and other fast-responding resources have performed at levels as high as 98%. The combination of the higher price and the higher performance is making it much more rewarding for fast-responding resources to provide regulation service to PJM. The new rules have been in place for a very short time, so Viridity will keep close watch on prices and performance over time and will provide updates."
    18 Dec 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    metro, thanks thats the best thing I've read all day!
    18 Dec 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Is this the same format in which PbC Cube scored 92-93% in October? (see below)

     

    Does the 98% Viridity figure refer to an overall score, or a score within one sub-component of the total score (there were a number of metrics comprising the final figure if I remember correctly, as defined by a super sleuth post here in the APC shortly after the Axion cc)?

     

    If so, what is the revenue delta 93% against 98%? And who on earth scored 98%?
    Questions, always more questions than answers.

     

    From the last Axion cc:
    'And the next question is from Martin Smith.

     

    Martin Smith
    You had mentioned in the notes there that the PJM’s rating system you had a 92 out of a 100 score. One would presume that that would be good but if you could give a little bit of insight that would be great.

     

    Tom Granville - CEO
    It’s actually closer to 93 and what this is part of the new pay for (ph) performance regulations that were first (inaudible) a year ago and they gave the utilities a year this year 2012 to implement them. And what it means is you scored on a number of factors and a couple of those factors are the speed with which you can respond to their signal and we can respond to their signal in milliseconds. In the past the window was in minutes, we’re responding in milliseconds so you get a scored amount for that. The second of the multiple issues that they raid on is for the performance. Did you really you bid in for 400 KVA or 300 KVA or 500 KVA, were you able to provide and were you provide it in a timely fashion and if you are, you get a certain number of points for that.

     

    So what was the rate that was being paid, the base rate that's being paid is one, let`s call it 1.0, if you’re rated and you can only be rated as high as 100, if you’re rated 92 for example or 93, then you are paid 1.92 or 1.93, so, instead of being paid $1 where the system gets paid a $1.92 or $1.93. If you fall below a 45 rating roughly, 45 rating, then you have to go through the whole cycle again and get recertified as a demand response asset. But we’re averaging, I think its 92.6 or 92.65, something like that for the month of October.'
    18 Dec 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Anthij
    I've posted this before.
    Somehow I got the Power point results of the PMJ pay for performance study for October. (Messed up link.)

     

    Performance Scores ranged from 40% to 98%,
    This looks like the data Granville said they had been unable to find. Axion on average about 5% from the top score! (Could even be us)

     

    It's 5 Pages long (Power point short pages)

     

    Pg 1
    Performance Based Regulation Results since 10/1 Go-Live

     

    Pg 2
    Prices Including LOC and Performance Adjustments
    •Average total clearing price 10/1 through 10/14.
    $38.05 / MW
    –Includes Lost Opportunity Cost from each five-minute pricing interval
    •State of the Market had 30-40% of payments outside market
    •Impact of LOC transparent to the market for the first time
    –Includes performance adjustments
    –On average, 75-80% of the clearing price will be paid in settlements after performance adjustments
    •Average total clearing price 9/24 through 9/30.
    $13.02 / MW

     

    Pg 3

     

    Resource Mix
    •Through two weeks, Dynamic Resources have accounted for up to 17% of the effective regulation requirement off-peak; up to 12% on-peak.
    •Performance Scores ranged from 40% to 98%, reflecting the ability of each resource to follow the regulation control signals.
    •On average, about 70 MW reduction in the amount of assigned regulation
    –Entered market with roughly 10% buffer in the regulation requirement to ensure proper control.
    –This will be about 150 MW if we have the reduction to the 0.70% requirement in coming months

     

    Pg 4

     

    System Control
    •NERC control criteria have remained steady compared to the week before the cutover
    –CPS-1 average before 150.6; after 148.6
    –CPS-2 average before 93.8; after 94.14
    •BAAL has not change significantly but that tends to be influenced less with our current control
    •More data is needed but it looks feasible to make the next step to transition the effective regulation requirement from 0.78% to ~0.74%.

     

    Pg 5
    Unfortunately pg 5 is a graph and I can't post it.
    Here's the title.

     

    Performance and Capability Clearing Prices

     

    SA keeps breaking it up every thing between the ""
    http://www.pjm.com~/media/committees...
    after that "media/committees" should come

     

    "-groups/task-forces/"
    "rpstf/20121016/20121016"
    "-performance-based"
    "-regulation-go-live"
    "-for-mc-mrc.ashx"

     

    Good luck with that.
    18 Dec 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Thanks f77
    18 Dec 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Try this for the link: http://www.bit.ly/UDbeWy

     

    In general, go to http://www.bit.ly, paste in the link and let them shorten it for you, then give the resulting shortened link to Seeking Alpha.
    19 Dec 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Wtb
    Thanks
    19 Dec 2012, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Quiet ATM, seems a good time for a brief mid-day summary. Through 11:59:54 ...

     

    # Trds: 68, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 393212, AvTrSz: 8548
    Min. Pr: 0.2790, Max Pr: 0.2900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2814
    # Buys, Shares: 28 73462, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2844
    # Sells, Shares: 15 294750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2804
    # Unkn, Shares: 25 25000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2843
    Buy:Sell 1:4.22 (had been as bad a 1:6.76).

     

    Slow swing towards improvement all morning long as VWAP moved from early readings of $0.2803. Just keeps creeping up so far. As one would expect, bid/ask spread narrows over time and CDEL has been best on both sides for some time with the usual suspect jumping in and out and hovering around the edges 1/10th or 1/100th of a penny away.

     

    Today is a pleasure after yesterday's frenetic swings. A 12%+ price swing, remember?

     

    Have we exhausted yesterday's miscreant or have they just stepped back because $0.28 is their target or they are reassessing their risk?

     

    Don't know.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8758) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL.

     

    Interesting how some the MM's use the lowest possible volume show so you can't get a read for their entry or exit strategies. Others show the whole block.

     

    It's like rival gang action. Show some weapons at times and hide em sometimes.
    18 Dec 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Market making is definitely a blood sport and the market makers want their sip every time a share trades hands.
    18 Dec 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I'm no MM fan, but in their defense ...

     

    The "standard block" is pretty much standard and there are some rules (with tons of "loopholes") about when they must show actual. We'll never know if they try to follow the rules, of course.

     

    Another thing that "hides" things and makes it look like they enter and withdraw quotes is when a better quote enters that MM's queue, it "hides" the one that's already sitting there.

     

    So if traders or investors are entering and changing orders frequently we can see NBBO quotes come and go quite quickly that makes other appear, disappear and reappear.

     

    Not the MM's fault and not a strong indication of manipulative action either.

     

    OTOH, we can't tell the difference, often, and we know they do (ab)use differing strategies in their effort to both make money and satisfy their important customers too.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Interesting discussion everyone. Let me chime in as a newcomer. I stumbled upon AXPW as I was looking for a storage medium for cheap photovoltaics. Solar is cheap now, and I need a backup for unreliable power delivery from the grid around here. My goal was to find a system that could stay charged during the day, fed by solar or grid, immediately switch to battery/solar when the grid went down, and keep charging the batteries from solar even if grid was down and house was tapping the batteries. That is a tough thing to find at the 25-50kWh/day level . Flooded lead acid is the cheapest, but the largest and most maintenance. Long life is not likely. AGM similar, without the maintenance issue. I was intrigued by Corvus Energy's Lithium nickel manganese cobalt batteries--they seemed like a great solution http://bit.ly/RCaS6h but the cost was huge---on order of $1200/kWh of storage.The Axion PbC promises to be much lower than that(anyone know a rough number?) with the same longevity and lack of maintenance benefits. However, the Rosewater HUB seems way overpriced if the $45,000 price is true. That is for 12.5kWh and associated electronics. They use a Xantrex inverter, which doesn't have the greatest reputation. My application would require two--that's crazy expensive. That would be more than a higher quality Victron solution using lithium ion. Victron makes solar inverters, battery chargers/inverters, etc. http://bit.ly/UP0ll5 They have a complete solution with solar blue inverters, Quattro/Lynx battery management, and Lithium ion batteries. Its considered expensive, but would be far less than what Rosewater wants to sell(minus the UPS power conditioning). I am hoping Axion will sell the batteries separate, and I could use the Victron equipment with them.
    18 Dec 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    My bet is that Axion would not be terribly interested in a direct sale of PbC batteries without the associated system electronics. As a hybrid device, the PbC behaves differently from other batteries and if the system is not designed to accommodate and take advantage of those differences, the user experience might be disappointing. Unfortunately the work to design a system is the same, regardless of whether its a one off sale or a recurring business line.

     

    The application you discussed, simple diurnal storage of electricity during the day for use at night is one of the toughest economic propositions around because you only cycle the batteries once per day and even with very high costs for grid electricity, the savings don't justify the cost of the battery. As a simple example, with a nighttime power cost of $0.30 per kWh, a battery will only save you $120 per year. If you're connected to the grid anywhere in the Continental US, the annual savings is closer to $40, which will get you a payback period of ... NEVER.

     

    Since the average house uses about 5 kWh per day, you must have one hell of a spread to need 25 to 50 kWh at night.
    18 Dec 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    I wasn't talking about diurnal use, but backup power in case grid is down. We have power outages frequently, some only a few minutes, some for 8-12 hours. I am not looking to save money, but to have a completely independent(no gasoline, diesel or nat gas) power source(solar/wind+ batteries) when I need it.

     

    Average house uses 5kWh/day? Huh? Thats ~200 watts on for 24 hours. There is no way. I just got the home energy report from my electric provider yesterday. We used 1302 kWh last month. Our most efficient neighbors used 1150. The average of all neighbors was 2397(100 surrounding homes, from tiny ranch houses to 5000sf.types).

     

    Could you expand on the differences you cited above? What would you have to do to keep it charged? Is it depth of discharge or what? The battery charging systems are highly programmable. What is involved that the current chargers can't handle? Is it beyond the scope of this http://bit.ly/RCmKp5

     

    Is the BMS unable to interface easily? As it stands, the residential hub is priced beyond usefulness for only the most crazy wealthy audiophiles. They are out there, but not very many. It also does not have enough backup power. 12.5 kWh is not enough for an average home for 12 hours. The wealthy target market would have larger homes and this would last a very short time. In my neighborhood of average homes, it would last 3 or 4 hours. Make it reasonable and there is a giant market out there for island power especially. With the cost of the residential hub, I could install a hydrogen electrolysis unit, compressor, tank, and fuel cell.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Your questions strike me as exceedingly strange. Nobody in the world uses battery backup to provide 12 hours of power because the cost is prohibitive. That leads me to the inescapable conclusion that your goal is to disrupt rather than participate in intelligent discussion.

     

    If you want that kind of detail you'll have to call Axion directly and speak with one of their technical experts. I don't think they'll be particularly interested in talking with you, but stranger things have happened. In the meantime I think my discussions with you have reached a logical end. Please don't bother asking additional inappropriate questions in this forum.
    18 Dec 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    The dude strikes me that way too. Hiding his real agenda.
    18 Dec 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    DNFTT, or if you'd prefer, DNFTD
    18 Dec 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/VOawVs

     

    http://bit.ly/ZgL8zO

     

    Those are two forums of people who use batteries to store power for their houses. There are millions of people around the world using batteries as power in off-grid situations. I find it odd you didn't know this. There is a huge market here. Batteries + renewables are cost competitive with diesel generator + fuel. With tax incentives and rebates here in the USA, it is cheaper for me to go this route than with a generator. I am not sure how you find my questions strange or disruptive. I want the best, low maintenance battery technology. So does the rest of world. If PbC can do what the Lithium ions can do but at a fraction of the cost, why would I not be interested?

     

    By the way, I did talk to Axion yesterday.
    18 Dec 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Then why are you pretending ignorance and bothering to talk with us? You either got the information or you didn't and if Axion wasn't willing to provide specifics it would be extremely presumptuous for anyone here to even try.
    18 Dec 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3885) | Send Message
     
    "12.5 kWh is not enough for an average home for 12 hours."

     

    That depends on many factors including type of hot water system, geographic location, time of year, and time of day. At your power consumption rate of 1,302 kWh per month your daily use averaged 43.4 kWh with hourly use averaging < 2 kW. If your home power use pattern is anything like my own, it likely surges during and after morning showers (electric hot water), during food preparation (electric kitchen) with power consumption at other times tracking within a narrow range except early morning hours when everyone is typically sleeping (and no one is opening and closing the refrigerator).

     

    The HUB is designed to accept, and condition, power from the grid, PV panels, wind turbines, or local fossil fuel generator. Installed in your home, I expect the system would deliver power to your home circuits from the batteries, recharge from PV input if available and, if not, take power from the grid. (I don't know for fact that it does so, but I expect that the HUB feeds any surplus PV/wind power into the grid.) So, IMO HUBs are not designed/intended for use as sole source backup for a residence but to provide 12.5 kWh reserve power to buffer outages of renewable energy and grid power for a few hours before backup generators kick in.
    18 Dec 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29441) | Send Message
     
    Please, DNFTT
    18 Dec 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    They would not tell me cost. HTL was kind enough to provide that rough estimate. Thanks HTL. When I called Axion, I was interested in charge cycles, maintenance, etc.as it applied the residential hub and they were very informative in that regard. I have calls in to Rosewater but they have not responded yet. I learned today about the cost of the hub which was surprising. That got me wondering if I could use Victron's equipment with Axion's batteries. I have made both companies aware of each other's products just in case they find something of interest in the other's arsenal.

     

    John, you write some wonderful pieces on Axion, but ease up on the paranoia. Your credibility dives when you instantly call someone with questions a "troll" and a "D-----"(not sure what that one stood for--I am sure nothing nice). Are you going to take back the 5kWh comment as well?
    18 Dec 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    That's exactly right D-inv. The HUB uses a Xantrex inverter that would do just as you described. I want to do the same thing, but just have more power available so I can last until the grid returns or the sun shines again. The HUB is also 120/60. I need 220V for a well pump. I also need 18.75kVa to start the 5HP motor(740 foot well).I do not want the hassle of a generator. I installed 10kW of solar PV last summer. Costs have dropped so dramatically since I bought the equipment last spring that I could replicate that 10kW system for 1/3 the price today. I plan to do that, add a couple plug in hybrids or EV's, and be a bit more independent. If that is a hidden agenda, so be it.
    18 Dec 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    It is possible that a person interested in a home-island battery back-up could stumble upon this site. How they confuse an investment blog with a retail search site is confusing. However, once in a while we do get tangled up in specific technical jargon.
    But as a rule I am very cautious of the New poster that somehow has been magically drawn to the lithium world for his/her best results.
    18 Dec 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    No magic Futurist. Lithium ion batteries look much more attractive than the alternatives of flooded lead acid or AGM. Long life, no maintenance, ability to draw down to very low charge state. However, they cost way too much. Axion's PbC appears to do everything that the Li-ion batteries do(and better in some cases) at a much lower cost. That's just common sense to be drawn from Lithium to PbC. But i am a troll, so don't feed me.
    18 Dec 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    I.D: Certainly you've been around long enough to not be offended by anything issuing from a lawyers mouth? Especially one with a Tesla Fanboy target on his back! :-)) He's spent so long battling those folks I'm surprised he has even any "thin skin" left at all.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, I found the PbC on SA doing research on Maxwell...
    18 Dec 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh---I have no dog in that Tesla fight(though I wouldn't mind driving one!). I saw a bit of banter about that while I read some Axion pieces on here, but I didn't realize it was an all out fanboy war. I just want to store large amounts of power with no maintenance, a long life, and at the cheapest price. I don't really care what's inside. I came here since there are thousands of comments, and the most knowledgeable people are those with a financial interest in a company.
    18 Dec 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    I.D. John has confessed that he thinks the Fisker is gorgeous, so he can be swayed. ... It's probably the flames that attract him! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) |